SAF-Holland SE (SFQ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the SAF-Holland Full Year 2023 Results Call. Today's presenters are CEO, Alexander Geis; and CFO, Frank Lorenz-Dietz. The presentation slides are available on the SAF-Holland corporate website. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. Please note this conference call will be recorded and published on the corporate website of SAF Holland. [Operator Instructions] Mr. Geis, the floor is yours.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. This is Alex Geis speaking, and welcome to our conference call on our full year 2023 results. Let me please start with some recent strategic highlights on Page 2. At the end of 2023, we announced to acquire IMS Group, Benelux from our long-standing exclusive distribution partner, Pon in Netherlands. The closing already took place on January 1, 2024, and IMS has been distributing SAF and Holland products, both for OEM and aftermarket in Benelux for decades. In addition, IMS offers innovative, sustainable and efficient solutions for the transport industry with mechanical and hydraulic steering systems, which is new to us. With this acquisition, SAF-Holland is strengthening its market position in the Benelux, and we aim to further expand our market share in this important region and offer the products of our new group brand Haldex in a more targeted manner. In addition, we also announced the acquisition of Tecma in Italy in early February 2024 and Tecma is a manufacturer of customer-specific axle and suspension systems for special vehicles and heavy-duty applications. Based on this acquisition, we will be able to offer our customers special axle systems that we previously were not part of our product portfolio before. Last but not least, we currently ramp up our new production facility in Piedra Negras, Mexico. This is a border town, and the location of the new plant is near to the U.S. Texan border, roughly 3 hours away from San Antonio, and this is perfect to serve both the Mexican as well as the U.S. market for fifth wheels. The new plant is part of the overall ongoing efforts to upgrade our production network with an attractive margin profile. The production capabilities there include state-of-the-art robotic welding equipment to manufacture a wide range of fifth wheel offerings. The additional manufacturing space not only enables us to serve our existing customers but also allows future OE and aftermarket growth. And I would now move on to fiscal year 2023 highlights on Page 4, please. Ladies and gentlemen, 2023 was an impressive and successful year for SAF-Holland. Never before in the company's history, could we achieve higher growth sales and we have never before operated more profitably. Our sales increased strongly by 34.6%, especially driven by the full consolidation of Haldex as well as strong growth in APAC and the robust development of the aftermarket business. Our organic growth amounted to 11.4%. Another highlight is certainly the adjusted EBIT margin of 9.6%, which we achieved in the past year. In addition, SAF-Holland reached a strong cash generation, which resulted in an operating free cash flow of EUR 143 million by which we were able to improve our leverage to 1.8x at year-end 2023. And that means we reached our leverage target of less than 2x already 1 year ahead of schedule. Based on these strong operating results, we will propose a dividend of EUR 0.85 to the AGM in June, which equals a payout ratio of 48.3% and a strong increase of 41.7% versus prior year. In a nutshell, we achieved the fiscal year 2023 outlook on our metrics with record levels of sales, profitability and cash flow and proves that we're able to capture strong growth opportunities and transform them into outstanding financial results. Let's move to the next page, please. Talking about the sales globally. So compared to prior year, all regions were able to show significant growth. EMEA was up by 16.1%. You see that in the upper left side. In the middle, you can see that Americas grew slightly above 50% and APAC was even close to a growth of 70% in 2023. In total, we achieved group sales of EUR 2.1 billion, a strong adjusted EBIT margin of 9.6% and an adjusted earnings per share of EUR 2.61. And despite the strong sales growth, our net working capital ratio was further reduced to 14.1% since we continued with our strict net working capital management to our Cash-is-King program. Among other things, this led us to a very strong operating free cash flow of EUR 143 million, as said before. So in a nutshell, we have seen significant improvements on our metrics and special thanks to all employees for this outstanding performance. Let's continue with group sales development on Page 6, please. The full consolidation of Haldex and solid demand for our products in all 3 regions positively supported the growth development in full year '23. Not only higher volumes but also the product mix were supportive elements. And as a result, 2023 organic sales growth amounted to 11.4% year-over-year, while Q4 organic sales growth also achieved a level of plus 10% year-over-year. Q4 '23 sales development followed the usual seasonality with Q4 being lower than Q3. Last but not least, Haldex contributed around EUR 400 million to group sales during 2023. And now let's move to the next page and we see the sales split by region and customer category. So starting with the group sales split on the upper left side, you can see especially based on the full consolidation of Haldex, the share of the Americas region grew from 37.7% to now 42.3% of group sales, so a small balance between Americas and Europe now. In addition, the favorable organic development in APAC increased the importance of the region and made up almost 30% of last year's group sales. Moreover, total OEM sales of EUR 1.448 billion, grew significantly. The trailer OEM business accounted for 55%, down from 60.5% while sales with truck OEM customers increased slightly to 13.7%. And you can see a strong increase in aftermarket sales of 56.3% and year-over-year to now EUR 658 million was driven by the Haldex integration and OEM business growth in previous periods, which positively impacted the population of SAF-Holland products in the aftermarket. So we create open population and then it serves the aftermarket. Overall, the change in regional mix and an increased share of aftermarket business strengthened the resilience of SAF-Holland. Let's speak about the group adjusted EBIT development on the next page, please. You can see in Q4 2023, adjusted EBIT grew by 52.5% year-over-year to EUR 49.3 million, which equals a margin of 9.5%. Hence, fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBIT improved strongly by 62.2% to now EUR 202.1 million, leading to a substantial margin improvement from 8% to now 9.6%, which slightly exceeds the through-the-cycle and 2027 target range of 9% to 9.5%. The favorable margin development was mainly driven by efficiency improvements, economies of scale, higher aftermarket share as well as the realization of cost synergies from the Haldex integration. On the next page for EMEA, please. You can see sales during the fourth quarter grew by 22.6% year-over-year, including organic growth of 8.5%. Favorable truck OEM development even led to a slight sequential growth in Q4 versus Q3 '23. And fiscal year '23 sales amounted to EUR 946 million, an increase by 16% year-over-year. Adjusted for FX and M&A effects, sales grew by 1.4% year-over-year. The EMEA region recorded a solid aftermarket sales growth, especially due to the Haldex consolidation as well as an increased addressable aftermarket because of very strong OEM business growth of the OE population. The adjusted EBIT grew strongly to EUR 73.1 million. And as a result, the margin amounted to 7.7% and was supported by internal efficiency improvements as well as previous price increases compensating inflated steel, logistics and energy costs, which were burned on fiscal year 2022 profitability. In addition, profitability was also positively impacted by realized synergies from the Haldex integration as well as higher aftermarket share, which I mentioned already before. Coming to Americas on the next page, please. So our sales in Americas during the fourth quarter grew by 40.9% year-over-year. Adjusted for FX and M&A effects by 3.3%. And quarterly organic growth slowed down seasonally as well as due to the demand normalization. So fiscal year '23 sales amounted to now EUR 890.3 million, an increase of 50.8% year-over-year, which includes an organic growth of 12.1%. Main drivers for the strong double-digit sales increase were again the Haldex consolidation paired with a robust demand for trailer and truck components in the region and a favorable business mix, while the trend towards air disc brake axle systems were also beneficial. Based on the strong sales growth but also scale effects as well as synergies from the Haldex integration, the adjusted EBIT increased substantially by 73.5% and to now EUR 97 million, resulting in an improved margin of 10.9%, really good increase. Overall, the fourth quarter marks the seventh consecutive quarter where we were able to show a margin in or very near to double digits and hence, proves our capability to continue to operate the business very profitable in the long term. Great teamwork in the Americas, I have to say. Last but not least, coming to APAC on the next page. Sales during the fourth quarter grew by 48.3% year-over-year adjusted for FX and M&A effects by a solid 37.5%. Fiscal year '23 sales amounted to now close to EUR 270 million, an increase of 69% year-over-year, which includes an outstanding organic growth of 59.5%. The substantial growth in APAC was mainly driven by an ongoing favorable development in India based on government infrastructure investments as well as an expansion of the transport sector in combination of a growing population and a very positive economic development. Also to mention, the customer demand also remained very solid and strong in Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Adjusted EBIT benefited from economics of scale from the higher business volume and favorable product mix as well as a significant improvement in China also. In total, the adjusted EBIT nearly doubled to now EUR 31.9 million and resulted in a margin of 11.9%. What a turnaround story, also great teamwork. And with this, I would pause for a second and hand over to Frank for the key financials.

Okay. Thank you, Alex, and good morning to everybody on the line. As usual, let me start with an overview on the EBIT to adjusted EBIT reconciliation for the group on Page 13. Starting as reported EBIT of EUR 163.8 million or 7.8%. The PPA position of EUR 19.1 million relates mainly to Haldex but also to prior acquisitions. The quarterly run rate for the future is unchanged seen at around EUR 5 million. Adjustments for restructuring and transaction costs are driven by around EUR 4 million relating to the cost of the cyber attack in the second quarter 2023. We also recorded cost for the post-merger integration activities post the Haldex acquisition in a mid-single-digit million euro amount as well as expenses for the settlement of claims of a former minority shareholder of EUR 1.3 million. Impairment of EUR 3.6 million were mainly driven by the impairment on production equipment for the factory we intended to open in Russia. The other adjustment position refers to inventory step-ups of EUR 5.3 million, again, from the Haldex takeover. Overall, reported and adjusted EBIT increased substantially both in Q4 and full year 2023. Moving on to Page 14, where you see the bridge from EBIT to basic earnings per share for the full year. SAF reported EBIT amounted to EUR 163.8 million for 2023 and grew significantly by 61.4% compared to the prior year, basically driven by an increase of gross margins from a better regional sales split as well as cost efficiencies, economies of scale and synergies from the Haldex integration. The finance result amounted to minus EUR 42.1 million and increased strongly from EUR 13 million -- minus EUR 13 million in full year 2022. The change of EUR 29.1 million was mainly impacted by higher financing liabilities due to the Haldex acquisition and by slightly higher interest rates for variable financing lines and several FX impacts mainly on IC loans within the former Haldex entities. The run rate for finance expenses going forward is expected to be around EUR 9 million per quarter, while finance income can slightly fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter due to FX rate development. In addition, the tax rate of 33.8% for 2023 is above prior year's level of 30.8%, which is mainly based on non-capitalized deferred tax assets on loss carryforwards. Overall, both basic earnings per share was EUR 1.76 and adjusted earnings per share with EUR 2.61, grew significantly compared to prior year. Moving further to Page 15, you see the dividend development of the past years. Already in '21 and '22, SAF-Holland has proven a reliable and sustainable dividend policy. Based on the good operating financial performance in the past year, Management Board and Supervisory Board will propose a dividend of EUR 0.85 to the AGM, which will be held in June 2024. The proposal reflects a payout ratio of 48.3%, which is in line with our dividend policy to pay out between 40% and 50% of the available net income. In addition, it corresponds to an attractive dividend yield of 5.6% based on our year-end 2023 share price of EUR 15.20. I'm now on Page 16, where you see the development of the equity ratio. Despite the dividend payment to shareholders in the second quarter '23 as well as negative FX effects, equity rose by 7.8% compared to December 2022. Since the balance sheet was already influenced by the Haldex takeover in 2022 due to the acquired shares, the balance sheet total, in '23 only grew by 10.2% compared to year-end 2022 but still stronger than equity. Hence, equity ratio declined slightly from 29.5% to 28.8%. But as you see in the development by quarter, tendency has changed already in the third quarter of 2023, and we remain committed to lift it up again to the 30% mark in midterm. Turning to Page 17. I would like to speak about the net working capital development. Net working capital of SAF-Holland amounted to 14.1% of sales, showing a significant improvement compared to the level of 15.6% at the end of March as Haldex were consolidated first time. Haldex usually had a significantly higher net working capital ratio between 20% and 25%. Since the full consolidation, we were able to constantly improve the net working capital throughout the year 2023, not only due to higher sales but also incrementally due to a better net working capital management. Having said this, I'd like to highlight that compared to 2022, the new SAF-Holland Group achieved significantly lower net working capital ratios and the development to 14.1% at the year-end, is an outstanding result, and proves that net working capital management is and remains a top priority for us. Let me address the cash flow development on Page 18. We have seen a very strong development of operating cash flow and operating free cash flow in 2023. The strong increase in operating cash flow to EUR 202.7 million for the full year '23 and EUR 75 million in the fourth quarter was mainly due to higher earnings before taxes and as said, a strict net working capital management. Against that, cash taxes amounted to around EUR 59 million in 2023, which were significantly up versus prior year due to increased earnings before taxes in prior periods. Payments for investments in property, plant and equipment, and intangible assets amounted to around EUR 62 million in 2023, reflecting 2.9% of sales and were in line with our outlook to spend not more than 3% of sales on CapEx. Looking at Q4, CapEx was back-end loaded, resulting in a spending of EUR 33.9 million or 6.6% of sales, which impacted the quarterly free cash flow generation. Overall, CapEx focused on further automation on production processes in Germany and Sweden, the construction of a new production line in Mexico and capacity expansions in India. Operating free cash flow grew by around 19% year-over-year to EUR 142.7 million. As a result, we recorded a strong EBITDA to operating free cash flow conversion of 54% in 2023. So overall, we achieved very solid cash generation driven by strong operating performance and payout with ongoing strict net working capital management and a CapEx ratio below 3%. Let's turn to Page 19 for the ROCE development. ROCE at year-end 2023 amounted to 20.8% and consistently increased throughout the year. The improvement of ROCE was due to reduced capital employed while the adjusted EBIT in the last 12 months view further improved. Over the past 3 years, ROCE has been constantly above the WACC meaning we persistently created shareholder value. Moving on to an overview on the leverage development on Page 20. By end, 2023 net debt-to-EBITDA ratio amounted to 1.8x, which shows a significant deleveraging achievement compared to end of 2022 level of 2.6x based on an ongoing strict working capital management, paired with a solid operating performance. Overall, we managed to achieve initially for year-end 2024 planned leverage level of not more than 2x already at the end of last year, which also shows SAF-Holland's capability to handle bigger M&A targets. And having said this, I hand back to you, Alex, for the outlook and closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you, Frank. I'm on Page 22, showing the 2024 forecast for trailer and truck markets, starting with EMEA. So due to the difficult macroeconomic environment as well as based on SAF-Holland's current order situation, we expect the European trailer market to see a slight decline of around 10% compared to 2023. Also, the European truck market is expected to see a decline of around 15%. In North America, both trailer and truck markets are expected to further normalize after the strong previous years, and are forecasted to decrease by around 22% or 16%. For South America's most important commercial vehicle market, pursue, the market for trailers is expected to develop sideways while truck markets are expected to increase in the double digits in 2024. In China, both trailer and truck markets are expected to grow by around 10%. As for India, trailer production is expected to continue to grow further by around 10%, while truck production should decline by around 5%. Also, we were still able to benefit from strong order book in Q1 2024, we are planning to adjust our production capacities accordingly in Q2, means we have already started to adopt our cost structure by e.g., reducing the workforce in response to the normalizing market environment. No matter how the order situation develops over the course of the year, we're well equipped to react quickly and efficiently, means we remain very confident about the current year and now looking at our guidance for fiscal year 2024. In terms of sales, we assume that we will be able to gain further market shares, which should partially compensate the declining market demand. So we have bigger orders kicking in, in Q3 and Q4. In addition, the aftermarket business is expected to develop stable to slightly growing based on strong OEM business growth in former periods and this increased population for SAF-Holland products. Despite that, our top line should be further supported by a full year of Haldex consolidation while fiscal year 2023 consolidation began only on February 21, '23. We completed our planned acquisition of IMS Group and Tecma are expected to make a contribution to group sales in the low double-digit million euro range. Overall, SAF-Holland is expecting group sales of around EUR 2 billion for fiscal year 2024. And the adjusted EBIT margin is expected to be in line with our through-the-cycle target of 9% to 9.5%. While lower sales volumes, higher wage, IT and freight costs might have a negative impact on adjusted EBIT margin, a resilient aftermarket business efficiency measures as well as the further synergies from the Haldex acquisition will be supportive in '24. And our outlook on the CapEx ratio remains unchanged with up to 3%. Investments are expected to be driven by CapEx for production network improvements, automation projects and improving process efficiency in the production as well as further expanding capacity for the production of air disc brakes. Besides that, the rollout of SAP S/4 HANA planned for the coming years will be another investment focus. Let me conclude the presentation with some key takeaways on the next page. So the change in regional mix and increased share of more than 30% aftermarket business strengthens our resilience. Increased profitability paid with strict net working capital management led to a strong operating free cash flow and deleveraging of -- to 1.8x, achieving our 2024 target one year in advance. Double-digit ROCE constantly above WACC and EUR 0.85 dividend support shareholder value creation. And despite the fact that fiscal year 2024 outlook foresees slightly lower sales, SAF-Holland is targeting a resilient adjusted EBIT margin of 9% to 9.5%. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the presentation and we can now start with your questions. Operator, questions, please.

[Operator Instructions] So the first question is coming from Holger Schmidt from DZ Bank.

I have a couple of questions. The first question is on the aftermarket business. There was an increase of the proportion of sales of around 4 percentage points in 2023. How much of that increase was organic and how much came from the acquisition of Haldex? That's the first question. Okay. If you don't answer then I...

It's okay. It's okay. Thank for the question. The bigger part of the increase came from the Haldex consolidation because, if you remember, Haldex had an aftermarket share of around 50%, including, in addition, was also a small increase of organic aftermarket increase coming from the population we generated the years before.

So organic was roughly 1.5%. 2.5% was coming from the Haldex consolidation.

Okay. Excellent. So the next question, you mentioned several times that you were able to increase the population and that will be a driver of the future development of the aftermarket business. How much higher is the population now as compared to 3 years ago?

This is a really good question. So I would not like to answer in specific quantities per product group but we can say that -- let's start with Americas. Americas is our biggest driver for the aftermarket, our fifth wheel business or truck business, fifth wheel and truck suspensions. And 2021, '22 and '23 were outstanding years in terms of volume increase or e-volume increase. And if you see the lifespan of aftermarket components, so basically, when the aftermarket components are needed for the repairs, it's in year 2, 4, 6. Those are the big drivers depending on the part which is being used. So as I said, '21, '22 and '23 were really good OE population growth for the Americas. So the next couple of years, aftermarket will be increased even more. And when we speak about the biggest product group in axles in EMEA, we increased also here massively in '21, '22 and '23, whereas '21 and '22 were even a little bit stronger in terms of population or quantity per axle than '23, which was a little bit lower. But those 3 years will also help to gain aftermarket increased sales in 2, 3, 4 years to come.

Okay. That's helpful. And then my third question, and last question. How should we think about the operating free cash flow development and the net debt evolution in the current year?

So we don't guide any number for this KPI but as you have already seen, last year, net working capital management remains focused. And so -- and also our operating performance. If you take our guidance from 9% to 9.5%, adjusted EBIT remained strong. So we will remain cash generating company. And having said this, deleveraging is our first priority in terms of capital allocation. So this will contribute to further deleverage.

But would it be fair to assume that you once again will be able to surpass the threshold of EUR 100 million?

We don't mention any concrete number.

And the next question is coming from Mr. Gonzales from Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking.

First of all, congratulations on the record results. I have a couple of questions mostly on the outlook. I have noticed that this time, you are offering less industry forecasted numbers and is maybe more your view. Currently, this is the case. And I have noticed, for instance, that in EMEA, that is still one of your most important markets for trailer. You are expecting a 10% decline in -- for the market. I understand in volumes, how do you see the conditions in Europe in general for trucks? This is some more difficult market for us, for the analysts, not there is less information as there are already industry forecasters like CLEAR, that they're talking about flat to slight growth in the year. Is this a conservative first stake for the year, this 10% decrease? Or there any -- is there any current trend that is making you to be more conservative in this start of the year? That will be my first question, please.

Well, this is a very long question. What is [indiscernible] very long. I will try as good as I can to answer the question, which are a couple of questions. So basically, you are totally right. The most important market, OE market in Europe is for us the trailer market. And while we have a very high share -- market share for trailers, we already had, I have to say, good, okay, first quarter, okay, not mentioning any numbers. We are cautious about Q2. We see a small decline specifically on the standard container trailers. So the big -- the 2 biggest trailer manufacturers are already in their, let's say, prolonging their vacations. They are on short work. We have higher shares with other trailer manufacturers. So we stay confident but we see Q2 not as strong as Q1 and then getting better in Q3 again. So yes, well, we predicted the trailer OE market to go down by 10%, whereas we would like to further grow our shares. I can also say that we won some tenders which are kicking in, in Q3 and Q4. This will be then increase our sales. Second half year, as I said, Q3, Q4, obviously optimistic. And we are coming from a year, which was not the record year so far, which was '21 and '22 but it was just a little bit less than the years before. So '23, so we stay optimistic that we can further gain market share and compensate with some other business, which is going to kick in. For instance, we announced that we won some tenders also at the air disc brake business for OE, for the trailer market, which will also start now but we're also now going into the truck business, for air disc brakes, and we also, here, won a tender and we will be starting supplying that starting in Q4 of 2024.

Okay. So we might say that this 10% decrease in EMEA is obviously not what you have included in your numbers, no?

Not in our numbers but the market overall, we expect to decrease by 10% in the full year of 2024. And we try to overcome that as we did the previous years.

And similar question for North America. I see that you're already doing a 22% decrease in trailer and in this case, this is probably more in line with the industry forecasted. But there are already some OEs that are expecting a strong rebound in the second part of the year, maybe the first part of next year, as the freight conditions are improving already in that market. So what is your view on North America in general? Do you think that is just a short break in this first part of the year? How do you see maybe the last part of the year and next year, are you optimistic in general about the market?

Well, I'm always optimistic. But knowing the Americas market for more than 20 years, I also traveled a lot throughout North America and speak with most of our big clients and medium-sized clients, both truck and trailer. Yes, it's true, there is a decline already started -- which started already in December last year. Okay, we could see that. Q1 will be challenging. We also see that. We also try to compensate with some new products we launched last year. But just to give you an example, the standard container chassis market, which is a big part of the overall volume in North America. And this is at a still stand, there is no sale at the moment. Most of our customers, whether it's somebody from China importing or exporting to the United States or manufacturing in the United States, they have a couple of thousand trailers on stock. I'm talking about the standard container chassis, okay? Not the other trailers. It's a still stand. I personally assume it will take 2 to 3 months. Everything is back to normal. So we expect that Q2 is getting better than Q1. And then everybody says, yes, because the market needs trailers to transport. All the goods population has also grown here and there's a bigger shift of production from U.S. to Mexico. And so all the goods being manufactured in Mexico needs to be transported back to the U.S. again. So there will be increase in logistics needs. And all our big customers say they expect starting latest Q3 and then also Q4 that there will be increase in demand again but I also have to say that 2023 in terms of output, both truck and trailer was a record year, okay?

Yes, I understand. And last one, Alex. Regarding pricing, so last year, the margins were impressive. It is understood now that there were slight tailwinds in cost. I am wondering, are you expecting some stable development in pricing in '24? It's too early to say? How do you see this?

No, I can confirm this. I expect a stable pricing. There was -- well, of course, we have negotiations with our customers and all the suppliers. That's the normal route of the business. We also adjusted some prices in 2023, here and there, a little bit up, a little bit down, always having on our plate, the incoming cost, logistics, freight, inbound, outbound freight, salary increases, which are to come in Europe and also in North America in the course of this year. We [ covered ] everything but I see the prices being stable. And also, I checked yesterday, the new scrap price development, it's still stable compared to January. It slightly increased but only slightly from November, December, so plus 5%. This is a normal course of development but I do not expect a huge price erosion in the market.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is coming from Yasmin Steilen. Okay, apparently not. The next question is coming from Johannes Ries from Apus Capital.

Only maybe a question, I don't know if you -- upon guide, may be you can give us a direction about may be the profitability development in the 3 regions. You had improvements in all 3 regions last year. Europe was still a lacker compared to the profitability of the other 3. Any maybe trends in the direction you see maybe could -- U.S. hold this very high profitability, could Asia maybe improve, maybe a China got maybe a [indiscernible] my head should maybe turn to positive? And maybe in Europe further improvement possible?

Than you, Mr. Ries for question. Well, we guided for 2024, our adjusted EBIT margin to be somewhere around 9% to 9.5%. Are there upsides? There are always upsides, of course, but we are not guiding the specific regions. But as you could see on the Americas page, where we showed the sales and adjusted EBIT development, you could see that we, seventh quarter now in a row, were close or a little bit above double digits, so 9-ish point to 10-point something. So around the 10% mark. We also do our best to keep that, of course, that margin. We just moved into a new facility. As I mentioned, Piedras Negras, highly robotized, cost is much better than in the U.S. In the .S., we are then modifying our production network. Let me phrase it this way and save also further costs. So we are working in that direction. The development in Asia, I'm very happy because the mining sector is still very healthy, which is good for us for our market in Southeast Asia but also Australia and New Zealand. India, I'm very happy and we made the right choice 3 years ago to do the groundbreaking for a new production facility, which we moved in one year later, so to say, in January in 2023. We are out of capacity already in August, we're out of capacity in August but we increased capacity further. I'm happy with the development. India is a subcontinent, huge population. They do a great job and we have nearly 55%, 60% market share in trailer axles and suspensions. We want to keep that and also use that hoping the future to export to other regions. China, I mentioned we did not lose any money again. I can also display that we signed a bigger contract with one of the -- with basically the market leader in trailer manufacturing in China for the next 3 years. This will also help. Will it make a total difference to the picture? No. Because we were at EUR 2.1 billion last year and around EUR 2 billion this year. But it will further help. In Europe, I'm a little bit more careful. The target is always to come back to profitability, which we have seen already in the year '16, '17, '18. Is it doable? Yes. But we also have to do a little bit even further homework to achieve this. You know that salary increases are happening with the metal union, onetime payments also happening this year or happen now. We stay cautious. And also, of course, we have to keep an eye of our customers. So we have to stay competitive. But also here, further open population helps to gain a further increase of aftermarket shares, which will then come with higher profitability. But as I said before, to summarize the opportunities but we are guiding, as of now, the profitability for this year in the range of 9% to 9.5% adjusted EBIT.

Short follow-on, on India, you see some market forecast is more flattish or slight growth, is that -- could it be too conservative that could be further acceleration because last year the market totally boomed and there is a public -- there's a lot of pressure from the government to change infrastructure and population to improve maybe the agent and the quality of the trucks on the street, therefore, will it more flattish now? Or could it even accelerate further?

When we said that the Indian trailer market where we are in will be increasing 10% year-over-year so '23 to '24, which would be really good because we had the highest output of axles we ever had in India. As I said, the next big, let's say, opportunity for us will be then using this hub with the cost structure to export to both to EMEA and to North America, which we already started in 2023 quite successfully. And if this is happening, we will further increase our business. So the 10% is the overall trailer market in India but there could be an opportunity to further increase rapidly our business out of India or in India, for India and for the export out of India. But we are not guiding our Indian [indiscernible].

And the next question is coming Yasmin Steilen from Berenberg.

Okay. I have 4, if I may, and I will ask them one by one. So with regards to the first question, can you shed more color on the market share gains? So you already mentioned the air disc brake order for truck OEs with better production in Q4, do you see in general truck OE customers to broaden the supply chain to a third source? And where are the kind of market share gains are on or basically at what expenses -- at the expense of the 2 larger manufacturers? Or is it at the expense of the long tail of the -- or smaller manufacturers. That would be my first question.

First of all, Yasmin, good to hear you back, thanks for asking the questions. We -- I cannot display the name of our first big European truck manufacturer because that's the agreement. But as I've said, we won a significant share of that business from this one manufacturer, which belongs to one of the bigger ones. And we would like to start our -- we are starting Q4 of this year. So this is a significant increase for our operation in Sweden. So our biggest manufacturing hub for air disc brakes is in Sweden but we also used 2023 to increase our assembly and manufacturing in China. We also did that in Monterrey in Mexico for North America. So we are in talks also to other truck manufacturers in Europe. And yes, we want to be #3 now. Haldex always had the issue after the 2016 battle between ZF and Knorr-Bremse that this -- what they told us, the customers -- the truck customers that they were hanging somewhere in the air. Nobody trusted that they can, let's say, survive the next coming years. With us now being one bigger group, we're already supplying big shares officially into these guys in Europe, also in North America plus truck suspensions. So they have more confidence and we are also in talks for now releasing the PPAP with 2 truck manufacturers in North America but this is a clear target where we are ramping up our capacity capabilities, we have the products ready and we want to go into the truck business.

Okay. That's very helpful. The second question is regarding net working capital ratio. So you exceeded the target already and it stood at 40% to 41% despite the fact that you've lowered the factoring amount, which was down 29% year-over-year in absolute terms, which I really appreciate. So therefore, what -- how do you think about your net working capital going forward? So the 15% to 16% looks conservative. What keeps you away from becoming more ambitious?

Yes. I think 15% to 16% net working capital ratio is a solid ratio for our business in our industry. We still want to reduce factoring further and we come more to a really sustainable lasting reduction of inventory. So it's a solid target and we will keep this as communicated already.

And maybe a little bit more business insight from my side. Yes, we can maybe reduce another 2%, we can do this and what for? I would like to [ have ] with all our production facilities and our subsidiaries around the world who do OE sales and aftermarket sales, highly profitable aftermarket sales. So I personally appreciate that they have the parts -- the fast-moving parts on the shelves even for peaks, so we can make the sale and then gain the profitability. But as Frank said, we are working with the teams in all regions to methodically reduce our inventory and increase the logistics channels to then be able to further reduce this.

Perfect. Well understood. Then with regards to the one-off -- maybe more housekeeping question. How should we think about one-offs this year and on a normalized level? So should we expect any significant one-offs related to the SAP HANA rollout in the current years? Or are there any other topics we should bear in mind? Or is it basically the difference of adjusted and reported EBIT mainly related to PPA?

Yes. Basically, we do not guide specific one-offs. The stuff, the SAP S/4 HANA implementation is part of our operational budgets and CapEx and not reported at the one-off because it's a long lasting project and related to operational performance in the end. We will have a few -- fewer expenses still for PMI for Haldex integration. But as I mentioned, we do not guide a specific number. And for a PPA, as I explained already before, we have EUR 19 million run rate coming from the past acquisitions that will be a guidance for the future.

Our internal target is that the one-offs are lower in '24 than they were in '23.

Okay. Perfect. That's very helpful. And then the last question, I mean, the significant improvement in China is remarkable. I just remember back in '19, your Chinese business was negatively impacted by the trade dispute between U.S. and China. So Trump recently confirmed that he would impose tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods in case he would win a second term. So I mean you already mentioned that you've also won regional OE trailer manufacturers as a customer. So could you update us on the situation in China? And what would be the possible impact in case Trump would be back?

Yes, it's a very political question. I have -- to be honest, I'm a direct guy. I have to say if Trump wins and he increases even further the tariffs on China, we would win massively in the United States, in Mexico and in Canada. We saw this in recent years. On the one hand, in 2019, you're totally right, we lost nearly 90% of our business in China because it was dominated by exports to the United States. We lost it. On the other hand, we gained it. We learned it, we did our homework. So we adjusted our products and capabilities in North America, U.S., Canada and in Mexico. Our China business now doesn't rely at all on the U.S. So it's more internal and export to, let's say, Asia. And also with our capabilities in India, we did also hear our homework supporting our colleagues in the U.S. And India and U.S., they have no dispute or nothing. There's a little bit of a tariff of a lower one-digit number, 8%. So we are not at all -- whoever wins the presidency in the United States, it will not impact our China business.

Mr. Geis, there are no further questions left.

Okay. Thanks for your participation, and for the good questions and discussions. For further details, you can always contact our Investor Relations department. And having said that, I wish you a good day. Thank you.

Thank you so much.