Sanlorenzo S.p.A. (SL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello to everybody. Thank you for coming to our press. I will give the floor to Attilio, our CFO, Attilio Bruzzese, as you know. We are at the table with Pier Acquaviva, which is our General Director for Corporate; and Ivan Cutrufello, our Head of Investor Relationship with you. Attilio?

So thank you very much, Massimo, and welcome to everyone. First of all, preliminary key figures are confirmed and looking at the highlights, Sanlorenzo Group continues its expansion into the full year 2024 result with all metrics in line or exceeding the last guidance 2024. This is confirmed for organic and consolidated perimeter after the acquisition of 2024 for Simpson Marine and Nautor Swan. And then in particularly, analyzing the indicators, net revenue new yachts growth 10.7% at EUR 930.4 million, driven by the excellent performance by Superyacht Division and good results in Americas and MEA region. EBITDA increased plus 12% at EUR 176.4 million and margin on net revenue new yachts reached the very important percentage of 19% EBIT at EUR 139.3 million, increased 10.6% year-on-year at 15% of net revenue new yachts. Organic investments for EUR 49.3 million, mainly related to the increase in production capacity and new product development with a constant incidence year-on-year on net revenue new yachts of 5.3%, and then the net financial position at EUR 112.8 million, net cash end of December 2024 before M&A and buyback plan with a cash absorption of EUR 27.7 million in 12 months 2024, net of the organic investment and dividend paid for EUR 34.8 million. About the business growth, you can see that [indiscernible] confirm the validity of the Sanlorenzo business model, in particular in terms of the expansion of revenues, preserving scarcity and upselling over time. In fact, delivery were 69 yachts on 2024 with a turnover of EUR 800 million. So, with an average net revenues per yacht delivered of EUR 11.6 million. About profitability, considering we had already analyzed EBITDA and EBIT, we can analyze more in detail the record level of the net group profit at EUR 103.1 million. This is about 4x the amount of 2019 after the IPO. That confirm the long-term vision of the group. The margin, you can see is 11.1% on net revenue new yachts and 11.5% as organic perimeter before the consolidation of Swan. So it's modestly impact of Swan in terms of margins dilution. Net financial income are around EUR 2 million, considering the good treasury management and relatively modest cost of debt. Referring to the taxes, the effective 2024 tax rate is 27.1% compared with the historical rate of 27.9%, reflecting the fiscal benefits we had. Therefore, it's proposed a dividend distribution of EUR 1 per share, around 34% payout on group consolidated net profit and the EPS is EUR 2.92. About cash generation, you can see net cash reached a level of EUR 112.8 million before M&A and buyback program with a cash absorption of around EUR 27.7 million year-on-year after dividend payment of EUR 34.8 million. The reported net cash is EUR 29.1 million after the extraordinary elements already analyzed, and it includes IFRS 16 net liabilities for EUR 25.5 million versus EUR 9 million as of December 2023. Net working capital in 2024 is EUR 36 million positive, at 3.9% on net revenue new yachts, especially considering the support to the new direct distribution in APAC region with Simpson Marine and the extension of the direct distribution in Europe and Americas regions. Therefore, a total of EUR 42.3 million are returned to the shareholders considering dividend distribution and net buyback in H2 2024. Now about guidance, considering the net backlog and 2024 of EUR 1.020 billion, 88% sold to final customer, but also the external issues due to the strong uncertainty in the global context, geopolitical and macroeconomic, we continue adopting a measured approach also for this 2025 guidance. For the top line, Nautor Swan is main driver of the further uplift in the net revenue 2025. And of course, the guidance marginality for 2025 reflects 12 months consolidation of Nautor Swan instead of 5 months 2024. Underlying group profitability, ex Swan, seen expanding, considering that Nautor Swan corresponded to a margin dilution of approximately 0.7%. Therefore, the top line growth plus 6% as a midpoint in the range EUR 960 million to EUR 1.020 billion. EBITDA grows 5% as midpoint of the range EUR 178 million to EUR 194 million. And then EBIT grows 3% in the range EUR 139 million, EUR 149 million. And the group net profit grow 3% as midpoint of the range EUR 103 million to EUR 110 million. And then capex 2025 are in the range EUR 48 million to EUR 50 million at 4.9% on net revenue new yachts. In any case, consider that the backlog end of December 2024 cover 63% of the guidance 2025. Now we have to analyze the financial result, and I leave the floor to Massimo to continue with the guidance, comments, and business items.

Yes. Thank you, Attilio. Well, I think there is not much to add. You have been introducing the matter perfectly. As always, I think you know us since 5 years now. We are conservative, and the guidance has been produced in consideration of the existing overall environment. So we have a top line, which is perfectly in line with the growing expected. And we have the left-side numbers, which is produced by Sanlorenzo in order to be solid and, as I said, conservative. If we have to see to judge the first 2 months of 2025, we had already 4 boat shows, Dusseldorf was middle of January and then Miami middle of February and Istanbul in Turkey around 20th of February, and Dubai. Well, we had quite nice contact and negotiation, but some of them are still in standby. They are in standby because the situation of the war in Ukraine and the declaration of the President of the United States is creating a bit of uncertainty. And therefore, we must consider that this could be something that will stand for the next month. It is depending how long it will stand. So we have to consider that little risk in the 2025 business. Consider that the number of the guidance are covered with boats sold 88% to final customer for 63%. So it's practically 2/3 of the volume of 2025 is already covered, most of it with the final client. With final client means we have more than 20%, 30% deposit in our bank. And this is giving quite a strong solid support to the numbers. But as we said, we like to be conservative and see what will be the next month. The rest of the numbers are coming from the situation of the company that you know already pretty well. And as you see here, our total backlog at 31st of December '24, let's say, the gross backlog was EUR 1.95 billion, which is close to EUR 2 billion. Then discharging the net revenue new yachts of 2024, we have a net backlog at the end of 2024, which is more than EUR 1 billion. It is approximately 1 point something of the coverage of the volume of 2025. And we have a nice EUR 623 million of boats sold, equal to 63% of the coverage of 2025. And then EUR 397 million, almost EUR 400 million for '26 and '27. So this is quite a nice situation. Of course, there are also the possibility of boost because in case of termination of the war in Ukraine, we have already contact with a lot of Russian customers who contacted us in the last 2 months, very positively saying that in their opinion, the war will finish soon, and they already booked a visit in the shipyards to see the new product and the innovation, the new design of the Sanlorenzo product, the Sanlorenzo boat. So on one side, there is some uncertainty due to the political situation, the geopolitical situation. But from the other side, there is the possibility of a boost of the business, probably by the second semester, H2 could be important. And you know that we have in September, the 3 important boat show, and that will be, for sure, a very important moment for 2025, but not only 2026 as well. This is overall a comment. Here, you have the 2 new business divisions. We are starting one in Nautor Swan, which is the aluminum sailing yachts we call Super Maxi or Maxi Maxi in alloy that will probably be built in Viareggio or close to Viareggio. And then in Bluegame we have a new line of product, which is coming from [ the technology of the ] tender we built for the America's Cup. We call it the Cruiser Foil. It is Bluegame BGF, F is for foil. That range will start to be presented in the market by 2026. We are working very hard to start a new line of aluminum sail yacht. You can see the first picture. This is a very nice 42 meter in aluminum. It is a Swan with a very strong heritage. The designer is Malcolm McKeon, which is one of the best guy in the market today. We have already very, very close customer, is an Italian customer that we will probably we hope to close by the end of the month. And this will be part of the growth of the revenue of the first line of Swan. Consider that our forecast for '25, '26, '27 is to grow from 100 million, EUR 110 million to EUR 150 million, EUR 160 million, and more than 50% of the growth will come from this line of product. There is a good strong market coming for the Maxi from 40 to 60 meter in alloy. You know the technology and the history of Swan in Finland was a very high-tech carbon production. They had no idea, no technology to build aluminum boat. The aluminum boat will be built close to our shipyard in Viareggio and in La Spezia. So that kind of line of product could not be developed by the Swan before the acquisition of Sanlorenzo. So now we have the technology to go to aluminum to bigger boat, and we will do it because that is our market. We are pleased to announce you that we signed last Saturday, the 8th of March, an agreement with Edmiston, which is one of the top brokerage house, with the collaboration of Bruce Brakenhoff, which used to sell Perini boats in America for 30 years. And now they will both, Edmiston and Bruce, will sell the [ Super Maxi Swan ] from the important office in Newport. The announcement of this agreement will be next Saturday at St. Barths where we have the bucket, which is the Super Maxi regatta organized in the [ Caribbean ] from [indiscernible]. That will be the moment. It will be Saturday 15th will be the moment we will announce to the market. There is news that has been -- the contract has been signed 2 days ago, Saturday. But I think that is a sign of strong impact of Sanlorenzo in this one world. Well, this is just showing you the growing of the super rich, which is our market. And then...

If I may, just a brief comment. This is the most updated the UBS now, not Credit Suisse anymore for obvious reasons, projections of the ultra-high net worth individuals in the world. We outlined some very interesting trends by geography where North America still in absolute number is by far the region where it is expected the highest creation of number of ultra-high net worth, which is ultimately one of the main structures of the industry growth. Remember, number of individuals and penetration rate. So a combination of the 2 factors, compared to the previous estimates that we outlined in the Business Plan 2022-2025, where the average growth per annum of the number of individuals was around 24,000. The estimates have actually been increased by UBS to around 26,000 with half of the growth coming from North America. This is just to confirm these structural trends we were planning in the business plan. I'll leave it back to you.

Yes, thank you. The last, I think you know, our investment in America. We will move to a new office at Pier 66 in Fort Lauderdale. It's a fantastic place. It is a very important old heritage hotel in Fort Lauderdale that has been completely rebuilt. And we have one floor as Sanlorenzo, Bluegame and Swan office in Florida. And then we have the Sag Harbor office, and we are planning in the future to open an office in the area of New York, probably in 2025 or 2026. The agreement with American Magic, as you know, we signed a letter of intent, a term sheet with them to build the ClubSwan 28 and more, 36 43, which is the racing yacht, the racing sailboat. We build in Finland. We will move that production in Pensacola, where American Magic is doing a huge investment for production, for technical office, and the development for the new America's Cup boat, but also an academy to start to teach to the young guy in America to go sailing. So it would be a fantastic project to be developed together with American Magic, which is the most known and technological group of people in sail yacht in America. We are very proud of both agreement with American Magic for the South of Florida and with Edmiston and Bruce for new port in the Northeast of United States. Well, I think we can move the floor to you. This is just a confirmation of the growing of the methanol and hydrogen business to confirm our road to 2030. As you know, we did the 50 meter with hydrogen methanol fuel cell from Siemens. And for 2027, we will have the first 50 meter with the bi-fuel engine from MAN has been declared the project at the Dusseldorf Boat show. We will be the first shipyard in the world to have the methanol engine for the propulsion of the 50 meter. Okay, I think that we finished. The floor is yours for any questions you may have, please.

Oriana Cardani, Intesa Sanpaolo. I've got 3 questions. The first one is on M&A. Do you plan to be active this year? And if so, what types of assets might interest you? The second question is on dividend policy. Do you intend to confirm current payout for next year? And the third question is on the guidance for the 2025. What assumptions are incorporated with respect to revenue from services and Swan revenues?

Regarding the M&A, we do not have any important goal for 2025, except for possibly a shipyard to establish the new division of Swan for the Super Maxi that will be in the region of Viareggio because there, there is a fantastic supplier list, thanks to the 45 years of Perini Construction in Viareggio. We like to capitalize for the construction of the Super Maxi Swan. Remember, we did 2 important acquisitions, Simpson Marine in Asia Pacific and Swan in Finland. Both acquisition has been quite complex, difficult to manage because they are far away from Italy and is the first important acquisition in the history of Sanlorenzo. So we had to adjust and to develop the inside of our corporate organization in order to control these 2 companies, one in Finland and one in the other side of the world. The Asia Pacific is a good opportunity for the future, but it's quite difficult because there is many countries with different law, different tradition, and quite far away from one from the other. We have 13 sales office and 10 service points to be organized altogether, and it is quite complex. So we do not think for '25 to have any major acquisition. One thing we have to organize the company to become very efficient in the organization of Swan and in the distribution in Asia Pacific. Regarding dividend, I didn't understand your question.

Confirm the dividend policy also for next year.

'26? Well, yes, consider that in the guidance, we are expecting a net profit, which will grow from EUR 103 million to EUR 110 million. So we will, for sure, maintain the same policy, which has been declared at the time of the IPO, which is between 30% and 40% of the net profit to be used for dividend. We did confirm EUR 1 per share in 2024 for the 2024 result, and this is remarkable. It is important because please consider we invested more than EUR 83 million in M&A. So in consideration of the heavy investment in new business, we keep the same dividend and also consider that the ratio between EUR 1 and the value of the share of EUR 31 today is different than EUR 1 in relation to the EUR 40 value of the shares 1 year ago. So in percentage, we are giving a dividend, which is much more important than last year. So the policy of the dividend will be kept for 2025 in '26 as well.

And about the revenues 2025 for Swan, we can consider an amount in the region of EUR 100 million. And about services, we are in the range between EUR 35 million and EUR 40 million.

Giuseppe Grimaldi speaking from BNP. I hope you can hear me well. Thanks for the really clear presentation and the outlook. So you before were discussing about clients these days being a bit more reluctant, let me say, in finally signing in the contract. Is there any divergent trend between different nationalities, or it's just common across all the people, basically? And the second question linked to that is in the current context that is difficult, I would say, at least volatile. What is the level of order that you think it's satisfactory for you to get this year?

Well, the satisfactory level of order, it is very hard to say at the beginning of March, considering the last 30 days of every day different declaration from the President of the United States. It's really hard to have a fixed number and expectation. This is the reason of the prudent guidance we gave for 2025. The problem of the client today is not that they don't want to buy the boat. They want to buy the boat. They just like to wait a few weeks more or maybe 1 month more, just to understand what will be the real politic coming from United States, but not only consider that the German election was very important as well. The French approach to Europe is very important. So every day, there is a quite important declaration from both sides of the Atlantic in the Western world. So that is a reason of a little uncertainty. And so, people like to wait to have a better color of what will be the world in the future. Everything depends how long this will stay in this situation. If that situation will stay for many months, then it will be more problematic to increase the order intake. If that situation will stay for the next 30 days and inside of it, we have the end of the Ukraine war, then the whole atmosphere will change completely. The boat show we had, the 4 boat show we had was not bad. There was people coming, discussing with a will to buy the boat, but only some people discharge the will to buy the boat with the a contract and the deposit. We have some people who signed the contract, signed the letter of intent, but they are waiting a bit for the deposit. And therefore, the first quarter can end by the end of March with maybe a bit less order intake than 2024 Q1 because of this special 30 days of action from Mr. Trump, but also from the election of Germany. Friday, there was a declaration from the future Prime Minister of Germany with an important program of EUR 500 billion of investment in infrastructure, which was a very strong point from Germany. We have EUR 800 million of investment in [ rearming ] of Europe. This is another very important point for our customer. Remember, our customers are entrepreneurs and 60% of our business is in Europe. The fact that the dollar moved from 1.05 to 1.08 in 48 hours, I think, it is a good sign of how Europe could be stronger than expected. That for us is very important aside of whatever Mr. Trump does, because we have 15% of the market in America, and we have 60% of our market in Europe. So the Europe reaction to what is happening today from French and German, I think, are quite important for the 2025 guidance and order intake. Regarding the different clients, no, I think that it's more or less the same spirit from Europe to United States to Turkey. I think probably the only market which is oversized, overreacting positively is Dubai. For sure, the Middle East is in a very, very good positive mood. As you see our cake from last year to this year, we increased more than 100% the volume of business in Middle East. And that is something that is confirmed for 2025 as well. There is a lot of action, a lot of good positive mood from Dubai. It has been the best boat show out of the 4 boat shows that we did.

Okay. We have some questions first in the chat from [ Jackson Roy ]. Hi, Jackson. And then we will go to Niccolo. There's the hand raised. The questions from Jackson, if Swan is EUR 100 million -- around EUR 100 million revenues, I guess, and services EUR 37.5 million, it implies Yacht, Superyacht, Bluegame will be flat to down in 2025. Which segment is suffering the most? Maybe first, I just clarify that the services, they are not included in the guidance because we guide on the top line only on revenues new yachts. And from the remaining comments, I would leave it to Mr. Perotti and Attilio. So which segment will be best performing, and which will be we -- will see more suffering?

Well, for sure, the boat below 24 meters are suffering more than the other. And then if we go on the bigger side, the boat below 30 meter is suffering more and the boat below 40 meter is suffering more. So as much as you go up to 50, 60 meters, I have no clue and no vision of what is happening on the underneath 80-meter boat, because we do not build that boat. But up to 70 meters, the market from 50 to 70 meter is stronger than the market from 40 to 50 meter, and the market from 40 to 50 meter is stronger than the market from 30 to 40 meter. I would say Yacht division, which is mainly boat above 30 meters, will be no bad. The Superyacht business will be good, but cannot improve much because we are at 100% -- almost 100% of the use of our production capacity. As you see, in 2024, we had an increase of almost 17% in the Superyacht business. So we are at the limit of our capacity. Bluegame and the small Swan boat are suffering more, and this is something that we have to concentrate more effort and push more with our dealer and with our direct distribution, for sure. Regarding the guidance, consider that 2024, EUR 930 million was including EUR 40 million from 5 months consolidation of Swan. So the organic volume of 2024 between Sanlorenzo and Bluegame was EUR 890 million. If you consider the average, the medium position of the guidance, we are at EUR 990 million, less EUR 100 million from Swan. We go back to EUR 890 million, which is not a reduction, but is a flat situation. So in consideration of the geopolitic environment, we consider to have a guidance with the middle point to be flat in respect of 2024, which is a confirmation after such a big growth in the last 5 years. But in case the situation will improve, as I said, in the next 30 days, 45 days with the war in Ukraine or whatever, we may go to the upper side of the fork, of the guidance, or maybe even more. We have been conservative, and I'd like to confirm to you that this is always the approach of Sanlorenzo to the guidance, to the numbers, and to the relationship with the investor.

Okay. I believe Niccolo Storer from Kepler Cheuvreux raised the hand. So Niccolo, you may unmute, and we wait for your questions. Niccolo, we cannot hear you.

Can you hear us? Maybe we should call him. Niccolo, we cannot hear your question.

Maybe you can type it in the chat also if you have some audio problems.

Okay. So we wait the written question from Niccolo Storer. There is anybody else willing to do -- now we can see you, Niccolo. Maybe you have the contact? No. Maybe we organize to silent him.

Okay. How comes there is not a net financial position guidance for this year. So I would leave it to Attilio. And why CapEx are seen -- Niccolo is writing down, but they're actually flat with the range. So why are the CapEx flat considering that there is also Swan in the group? And if you can give some color on the evolution of working capital.

Regarding the CapEx, I think it's important I reply. Well, consider that we have been investing approximately EUR 50 million every year, except for the '20, the COVID year. And we consider the investment enough for the existing growth situation. Remember that our 3-year plan was related to high-single-digit growth, not anything exorbitant. So the high-single-digit growth was supported by the CapEx of approximately EUR 50 million per year. For 2025, you see that our CapEx is less than 5% of the revenue. We consider that pretty good for the investment for our capacity to production of cash and to conversion of cash to our deal. In this moment, we do not see for the future a very important increase in volume in our business overall, but also because the strategy and the philosophy of Sanlorenzo and Swan is a [ tactful ] growth is a concentration of EBITDA margin, EBIT margin more than volume. As we said before, we will have probably an investment in acquisition of a shipyard for the production of the Super Maxi. But consider that by the time the project of the new boat is finished, and we produce the metal hull, we will be already in 2026. So the acquisition of the new shipyard could be either by the second semester of '25 or most probably the first semester of '26. So we are not in a hurry to spend more money in CapEx. The existing CapEx is perfectly in line with the growth of the company and the situation of the market.

Yes, about the net working capital and the net financial position, Niccolo, consider that they are very strictly linked. Then consider that, in particular, for the net working capital, we will have an evolution for the next months consistent with the seasonality of the business, in particular for Q1 2024-'25 with an absorption of cash in this next quarter. After this, for 2025, we think that inventory linked to the direct distribution could be reduced, especially starting from H2 2025. Therefore, we expect to come back to a positive free cash flow for the end of 2025 to return dividend to the shareholders as anticipated by Mr. Perotti, and we think that it will be possible to give more colors in the next months, considering the evolution of the business.

Perfect. I see. Mr. [ Gerard ] with the raised hand. Please go ahead with the question. We'll be happy to reply.

Do you hear me now?

Yes.

[ Gerhard Plesky ] from [ Bergens Tidende ]. I have just one question concerning punitive tariffs from the United States. What would be the effects of tariff barriers from the United States?

The tariff problem for the Sanlorenzo range of product, which is more than above 24 meters, which is pleasure ship, yachts, we consider 0 because there is almost no production locally in America of such product. Therefore, we think that Mr. Trump will not concentrate the tariff on product where he [indiscernible] defend the local production and the local Americans. You cannot say American first on yacht above 24 meters because simply they don't build it. It's possibly if the tariff would become a problem, that would be a problem of our customer. That could be. But the matter is really very skeptical. There is a lot of announcement, and then little to do, little done. And we do think that Mr. Trump will consider the relationship with Europe and the kind of product Europe is exporting to America. Most of the products produced in Europe are not produced in America. So aside of some field like car industry and a few other, there is not a lot of competition between the product imported by Europe and the product produced in America. So it could be a problem, but most probably, we think there will not be a problem with the European country. The problem with China could be bigger, but we have almost 0 business in China. So we have absolutely no problem in that scenario. With Mexico and Canada, we sell probably 1 boat per year. So again, if that business or that economy will be damaged by tariff, we do not really feel we will be damaged or we will have an important remarkable market reduction. So I think the tariff matter is not really on the table. It is on the table, the uncertainty. It is on the table, the feeling of the people. This is something that can affect the timing of the confirmation of the contract and deposit and so forth. So this is something that we will see in the next 2, 3 months. H1 '25 could be problematic. But then remember, we have EUR 1.020 billion of backlog, 88% to final client, and that is a nice bridge to 2026-2027.

If there is any other question, please go ahead. Okay. I believe we replied to all the questions we had on the line.

Thank you very much for your time. Good night. We will see you in different meetings we will have in March and April. Thanks for your attention. Thanks to follow Sanlorenzo and the time. Bye-bye.

Thank you.

Thank you.