Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

[Foreign Language] Hello, everyone. I'm Saleh Alghamdi from the Investor Relations Department at Luberef. It is my pleasure to welcome you in today's audio webcast where we will be discussing our first quarter results for the year 2025. I'm also pleased to be joined today by our Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Saud Kamakhi. Our session will begin with a presentation highlighting Luberef's Q1 2025 performance, followed by a Q&A session. Please note that this webcast is being recorded for future reference. Before we dive into the presentation, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statements. During today's presentation, we may make forward-looking statements that refer to estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcome may differ materially due to the factors stated in this slide. With that out of the way, I will hand over the call to Mr. Saud.

Thank you, Saleh, and good day, everyone. Welcome to Luberef's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Thank you for joining us. In this quarter, we kept the pace in our growth-oriented journey by tackling business transformation, focusing on Growth II project and looking ahead to future opportunities as well. We are proud to announce that our commitment to safety and reliability continues to thrive, maintaining our industry-leading safety performance, recording a total recordable incident rate of 0 and achieved a mechanical availability of 97.6%, a clear reflection of the operational disciplines embedded across our organization and reflecting our dedication to the highest standard in operational excellence. To further reinforce our commitment to workplace safety, we adopted a comprehensive framework aligned with international best practices and proudly obtained the ISO 45001 certification for occupational health and safety management systems. This certification represents a significant milestone in our efforts to ensure a safe, resilient and high-performing work environment for all our employees. Continuing our transformational journey, we remain dedicated in our commitment to unlocking additional value from our existing operations through targeted commercial initiatives aligned with our long-term strategy. In the first quarter, we successfully introduced our bright stock and 110 PRIMA products into higher netback markets where demand for these grades is strong. This was made possible through our base oil alliance, enable us to tap into more lucrative channels and further reinforce our commercial resilience and evolving market dynamics. On the external front, Luberef was honored with the first place in Sultan AlDugaither Award for the Best IR program in the middle cap categories by Tadawul. This milestone is both an honor and motivation for us to continue our obligations by being transparent and confident in what we report. Meanwhile, the Yanbu Growth II project is an essential and key pillar of our long-term growth. We are actively collaborating with our contractors, applying rigorous oversight and upholding the highest standard of quality and control to ensure the project is executed successfully despite the challenges we face. Progress remains broadly in line with our previous guidance, and the project is currently in the procurement phase, while we faced some delays in material procurements, mainly due to technical clarifications with vendors and the need for licensors' approval for new equipment. Our teams are actively working to resolve this issue and keep the project on track. Our current progress of 42% is slightly less than our plan for quarter 1 as the nature of this project is heavily weighted in procurement activities and less than in engineering and construction, and the progress will pick up in the next 2 quarters. As of today, we are preparing for the material receiving phase, during which we will coordinate closely with all stakeholders to ensure every project requirement is met in preparation for execution. The turnaround window remains set at 45 days, during which we will complete both the scheduled 5-year maintenance cycle and the mechanical completion of Growth II. In terms of investment, the total CapEx spent on the project since inception stands at SAR 135 million. Our CapEx plan for 2025 remains unchanged in the range of SAR 250 million to SAR 350 million, aligned with our project execution time line. Looking at the base oil crack margins, quarter 1 crack margins came at SAR 1,755 per tonne, which is 9% higher than 2024 first quarter crack margin and within a few percentage points of the 10 years average of SAR 1,791 reflect the resilience in our business. During quarter 1, the planned catalyst replacement shutdown has been completed safely and successfully despite the additional 8 days required to complete the replacement. However, and with that, we managed to record a sales volume of 272,000 metric ton, which is slightly higher than the same period last year. On the pricing side, while base oil crack margins shows a modest improvement, overall revenue declined slightly year-over-year by 2.5%. During the quarter, when comparing crack margins for byproducts to the same period last year, we observed a decline primarily due to an increase in feedstock costs. This led to a slight drop in both EBITDA and net income by 10% and 7%, respectively. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are showing increase due to changes in working capital that we will detail later. In terms of investments, CapEx spending remains on track, in line with our plans, covering both maintenance and growth-related projects. Sustaining and Growth II CapEx are higher than the comparative period, primarily due to spending related to the new catalyst and our commitment to the project's milestone. That said, despite the timing impact, we continue to excel in converting profits into actual cash with consistently strong cash conversion metrics. From a balance sheet perspective, gearing remains negative, which reinforces our strong financial position and healthy capital structure. Our return on average capital employed also remains at a healthy level, underscoring our efficient capital utilization and value creation for shareholders. Let me now walk you through the waterfall chart for net income. Despite the drop in the crack margin of the byproduct mentioned earlier, however, this was offsetted by the improvement in the base oil crack margins, which softened the impact during this quarter. In addition to that, our operating expenses as well as Zakat has been lower in comparative basis, which reflects our continued focus on operational efficiency and improve our processes to sustain our financial health. Moving to cash flow analysis. We continued to demonstrate strong financial discipline and maintain a healthy level of cash generation, resulting in a solid cash balance at the end of the quarter. The significant increase in the cash flow from operations this quarter is primarily attributed to positive movement in working capital, mainly from the improved collection during the first quarter, which has been lower and impacted by buildup inventory and semi-finished product that will be converted to base oil and timely difference in trade payables that has been settled. As always, we remain focused on our core principles of safe and reliable operations while actively exploring value creation opportunities that enhance our financial performance and support long-term value creation for our shareholders. Our 2025 guidance remains unchanged, and we are pleased to share an additional operational update regarding HVGO. The HVGO supply from Samref is expected to resume in quarter 2 with a planned quantity of 1,500 tonnes per month, contingent on the availability of a compatible feedstock stream for base oil production. The incremental development further strengthens our operational outlook and enhances our flexibility in meeting market demand through the rest of the year. In closing, quarter 1 marked a meaningful step forward in laying the foundation for sustainable growth. We delivered solid operational performance, maintained industry-leading safety standards and made tangible progress across key strategic initiatives, including our commercial transformation and the continued advancement of the Yanbu Growth II projects. Our financial position remains strong, supported by healthy cash generation, disciplined capital deployment and a resilient balance sheet. These fundamentals position us well to navigate near-term market dynamics while staying focused on long-term value creation. Looking ahead, we remain confident in our strategy, execution capabilities and the dedication of our people to drive Luberef forward as a leading force in the global base oil industry. Now I will hand over to Saleh to start off our Q&A session.

Thank you, Mr. Saud. [Operator Instructions] I see no hands up yet. Mr. Amir Badran from NBK.

Can you hear me?

Yes, Mr. Amir. Go on.

I have 2. So first, related to the Yanbu growth project. Could you please remind us of the total CapEx to be spent on this project and how much have been spent already? And the second question is related to the Jeddah plant. Could you please provide an update on whether the feedstock agreement would be renewed or not?

Thank you, Amir, for this question. For the -- let's take the first one regarding the Yanbu growth project. As mentioned -- as I just mentioned during the presentation, our CapEx spend since start of the project so far is around SAR 135 million. This is up to end of first quarter of 2025. And also the guidance for this year is also -- remains the same, SAR 250 million to SAR 350 million. The total project of -- the total CapEx project expected for Yanbu growth project is around $200 million, which is around SAR 750 million. So far, we are expecting to have the same amount, and this is according to the plan so far is what happened. For Jeddah, maybe we had our last updated in the annual meeting. And so far is that we are still communicating with Saudi Aramco for the agreements for the supply of the feedstock. And in addition to that, to all other items that we listed regarding the land lease and the continuation of Aramco's terminal. Luberef already initiated the request with the Ministry of Energy. And we hopefully that soon, we will update you with the news of the result of these things.

I see the hand of Mr. [ Mohammed AlThunayan ] raised.

[Foreign Language] Just a question related to the turnaround CapEx. I believe you mentioned the slide it will be around SAR 160 million, and that includes SAR 110 million for the catalyst. However, looking at the press release, only SAR 5 million was spent during the first quarter. And I believe you also mentioned that there was a turnaround and catalyst replacement during the first quarter. So can you clarify more on that?

So if I understand you correctly, [ Mohammed, ] you're asking about the breakdown of the turnaround CapEx and what was spent in Q1. Am I correct?

Yes.

So anyway, the quantities shared, the quantity spent in the first quarter was mainly for the catalyst replacement activity that took place in Q1 2025. But for the other spending and the turnaround schedule by end of 2025 remains the same. Does this answer addresses your question?

Yes. And just a follow-up because that would be related to the integration of Yanbu II Growth project. Is that correct?

Which part? The spending in Q4 2025?

Yes.

Yes, it will be part of the turnaround activity, and that would pour into the Growth II completion project. Mr. Ricardo, I see your hand up.

The first one is just on the -- in previous presentation, you mentioned about potentially getting to 1.5 million or 1.6 million tonnes depending on feedstock availability. So is there any updates on that front? And then the second point is, how should we think about maintenance CapEx in 2026 after the Yanbu Growth project comes online?

Let me repeat your question to make sure we grasp the idea. So the first question was about the 1.6 million tonne scenario and how do we foresee it? The second question is about the growth CapEx in 2026?

No, maintenance CapEx in 2026 when Yanbu comes online.

Okay. Ricardo, first of all, for the expected stream and that is planning to be resumed in Q2, we are expecting that approximately of 1,500 metric ton per month. That is based on the condition of the compatibility with our base oil production. So for the second question, in general maintenance for our -- again, when we do that expansion, the number of assets are the same. So the total assets -- we are increasing the VGO and the hydrocracker. And it would be -- we do not expect that much change in the maintenance as that would -- not adding more assets and more units to the refinery.

Does the answer addresses your question, Ricardo?

Yes, it does.

Mr. [ Yasser Alnejaimi. ] Yes, Mr. [ Yasser? ]

I have a couple of questions. So my first question regarding the global outlook for the lubricants. Do you see any shortage in supply or the market is oversupplied? My second question is why the full volume drop comparing to Q4?

I will kindly ask you to repeat the second question, [ Yasser. ] The message was not very clear. The second question.

The second question is regarding the sales volume. What is the main reason for drop in sales volume comparing to Q4?

Yasser, I think as we shared in the presentation, the quantity for the base oil for this quarter is almost the same as -- same in last -- first quarter in 2024 on a comparable basis. We had...

No, I mentioned Q4, not 1Q. Yes.

For Q4, we had -- in this quarter, we had a shutdown, as we mentioned, for catalyst replacement. So that affected the quantity of the -- the quantity in this quarter.

And as for your first question, Yasser, if we are talking in relevance to the situation between the U.S.-China trade wars, the base oil as a virgin oil product is exempted from tariffs -- from the new tariffs, I mean. However, we did observe or we are evaluating the situation in the finished product. The finished product blenders are a bit concerned about their -- about the finished product cycle. So there is a slowdown in automobile, automotive services, for example, marine application, metal working fluids. We can conclude the following that there is no direct impact yet on the sales of the base oil, generally globally speaking. However, the tide or the wave that is coming from the finished product market might put some pressure on the base oil business. In the same context, this is on the demand side. On the supply side, we are expecting according to -- not expecting -- according to the outlook, reports and the analysis for the year 2025, the supply is expected to drop in the Q2 2025 due to scheduled maintenance round in the Asia Pacific region, specifically in Group I and Group III base oil products. Next, Mr. [ Qadri. ]

[Foreign Language] This is Fawad Khan from Alinma Capital. I have just 2 questions. Number one, there was a Group III project that the company has mentioned. So is there any update on that Group III project in this quarter? Or when we should expect some clarity on the potential FID on the Group III project?

Are you referring to the Group III+ project?

Group III+, Group III+.

Yes. Again, our goal in this project is to complete our pre-FEED. As we mentioned earlier, this -- the target for that is end of this year, Inshallah. And if this project is deemed visible after the pre-FEED stage for the company, it will be presented again to our Board of Directors for approval to proceed to the next stage, which is the FEED stage. So, so far, we are progressing in different aspects in that project. And with the same target that we had shared with you earlier at the end of the year, hopefully, the pre-FEED will be completed.

Okay. So let's say, by sometime 2026, we should expect a decision on this FID -- sorry, FEED and then FID?

There are several stages when it comes to certain projects. First, after we finish the pre-FEED, then we'll move to the FEED. After the FEED, if things are feasible and Board direct approval, then we will get FID of that.

So is there any time line that we should expect? Let's say, if everything goes pre-FEED, FEED and FID, so one should expect the final decision sometime in mid or second quarter or end of 2026?

So usually, it takes a few months after this. So as we said, that pre-FEED will end of this -- before end of this year or end of this year, we'll have it -- hopefully, that it will be completed. So the FEED will be in 2026. So probably during 2026, hopefully, if everything is feasible and all the studies shows that benefits of this project, then we will have an FID on that. So far, as of now, I cannot give you a certain time frame, but we can get back to you on that with more clarity once we have it.

Sure. And in the presentation, you mentioned that the netback margin during the quarter has jumped around 9% if I follow the prices available on the company's website and the feedstock prices. So apparently, the margin should drop the primary margin. So if there are some dynamics that I am missing here which are at play? If you can kindly explain what led to the increase in the net margin during the quarter-on-quarter?

Mr. [ Qadri, ] could you kindly repeat the question again? We did not get the full idea.

The netback margin during the quarter apparently has increased I think around 7% to 8%, if I understand correctly. So if you can please provide some clarity what led to the increase in the netback margin during the quarter versus the last quarter? Is it because of [ post ] catalysts?

So for our base oil prices, we noticed during this quarter an increase in that comparing to quarter 1 2024. So with that -- with the increase in the feedstock, we have a higher increase in the prices in the base oil.

Was there any change in the local versus domestic versus export ratio, which is assumed to be 30-70? I mean, because the production was down during the quarter. So was there any change towards more local domestic versus export?

Usually, in our placement of those products, we are preferring to find the highest netback that bring us the highest margin in general. And I believe, yes, during this quarter, if we compare it to 2024, we have higher local sales comparing to quarter 1 in last year. So that is one of the reasons that why we are having higher margin.

Okay, sure. And lastly, if I may ask the third question on the working capital. Even the fourth quarter and 2024, there was a drop in overall working capital financing. And during the first quarter also, we observed that the account receivables have dropped. So is there any new terms or credit terms that company has rolled out? Or what are basically the dynamics on this issue where the working capital has dropped both in 2024 and in first quarter 2025?

So as we shared in our slides, as you can see that one of the items is the collection that we have done during this quarter that impacted positively on the working capital. And then during this period, at the end of the quarter, it was a Ramadan period and the Eid. So that is -- things have been with the inventory that we have a huge increase in the inventory also that impacted also the working capital. So that both -- these items affected the working capital and with no new terms.

But how sustainable this drop in working capital is for the rest of the year because the -- ultimately, the dividend payout obviously is also kind of hinge upon the sustainability of drop in the working capital. So if you can guide us if this drop in working capital is sustainable throughout 2025 or we should expect some kind of increase in the working capital financing over the next 3 quarters or so?

We believe that we will have a sustainable working capital in the following quarters and with no expectation of huge fluctuation.

Next, I see Mr. [ Mohammed. ] Your hand is still raised, Mr. [ Mohammed. ] Do you have another question?

Yes. Just another question on OpEx. So coming at 61.2%, down 9.6% year-on-year and 48% sequential. So I'm just wondering if there is a one-off, maybe other income, provisions, inventory gains that were recorded in the OpEx line this quarter, I mean?

Sorry, the voice was not clear. Your question about the OpEx of this quarter is lower?

Yes. Was it one-off? Yes.

No, no, it's not one-off. It's -- this is based on the current practices that we -- as our management, we are trying to ensure that we are having optimized OpEx. So this is -- it is based on that processes and practices that we are having in order to have better performance with the current -- with a better cost spending and forecast.

There are no typed questions, and I don't see any additional hands raised. Mr. [ Qadri, ] I see your hand's still up. Do you have another question or...

Sorry, I have already asked the questions.

Any additional questions? Okay. Since there are no additional questions, we thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending today. And this recording will be shared soon on the website for future reference.