Siemens Energy AG (ENR.DE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Siemens Energy's Pre-close Group Call for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026. Before we begin, please note that today's call is being recorded. The recording will be available on our website until our quarterly results are published on February 11, 2026. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, we are in the markets pre-close period and will not provide guidance on quarterly KPIs. Please refer to the information and forward-looking statements notice on screen, which applies to all comments made today. The purpose of this call is to remind investors of prior statements and guidance, recap information previously disclosed at quarterly results calls, conferences, roadshows and our recent Capital Market Day and to answer contextual questions. We plan to publish our Q1 fiscal year '26 results at 7 CET on Wednesday, February 11, and the webcast will be scheduled for 10:30 CET same day. Our silent period will begin on December 19. As always, we will share company compiled consensus 1 week ahead of the earnings release on Wednesday, February 4, after market close. I will begin today's call with a recap of the key messages from our main investor event in Q1, our Capital Market Day. This overview will cover our perspective on the market, demand and pricing trends, backlog margin expansion as well as our updated short- and midterm guidance and capital allocation framework. After these topics, I will address seasonality, capacity expansion, tariffs and additional updates for Q1 before opening the floor for your questions. Let's begin with the market context. We operate in the right market at the right time. Electricity demand is a structural upswing, not a short-term spike. As discussed at CMD, global electricity demand is expected to rise by roughly 50% over the next decade and to double by 2050, driven by electrification in transport and industry, population growth and increasingly AI and data center compute loads. Electrification is growing faster than GDP and faster than overall energy consumption, supporting a long durable growth momentum. Gas will remain indispensable, quick to deploy, dispatchable and reliable with an elevated gas turbine market expected to stay robust at least until 2035, supported by coal-to-gas conversions, grid stability, industrialization and a high-driven baseload. For grid technologies, we see a once-in-a-generation build-out of around $10 trillion over the next 15 years to connect renewables and replace aging assets. About 50% of transformers will reach retirement age by 2040. Siemens Energy is positioned at the center of this transition with leading positions in gas services and grid technologies and a large service footprint that turns our installed base into recurring cash-generative value. Customer feedback at CMD from utilities, pipeline operators and hyperscalers confirm the same message. Demand is real, lumpy loads are rising and the challenges, capacity and speed without compromising reliability. Shifting to demand and pricing. In Gas Services, we see an average of 90 to more than 100 gigawatts per annum of market activity in the upcoming 10 years, supported by coal to gas shifts behind-the-meter needs and grid stability. Please remember that this is based on a combined cycle demand. We sold 194 turbines in fiscal year 2025 compared to 100 in the prior year and secured 78 gigawatts of new units backlog across all frames, of which 8 gigawatts were booked within the first 6 weeks of fiscal year 2026. 36 gigawatts, which are currently customer reservation should turn into orders within the next 12 months, meaning fiscal year 2026 and the beginning of fiscal year 2027. Pricing momentum for Gas Services seen in recent quarters is expected to continue to be favorable. We are seeing more attractive pricing and reservation agreements than in current bookings. Moving to grid. In Grid Technologies, capacity constraints are tangible. Lead times for large power transformers have stretched to around 5 years compared to 2 years a few years before. Our GT backlog doubled in 2 years to EUR 42 billion, with broad-based demand across our products and solutions. For Grid Technologies, pricing has plateaued at an attractive level due to the regulated market in Europe. Short-term deliveries in the U.S. might lead to some premium. The pricing trend for Siemens Gamesa remained favorable. After 2 years of price increases in onshore, prices are stabilizing, particularly in Europe and the United States. For offshore, we see stable pricing trends for 2029 and 2030. Now let's discuss backlog margin expansion, which is a pillar of our guidance. Our backlog quality underpins our fiscal year '28 guidance and provides us with visibility, resilience and improved margins. The group backlog stood at EUR 138 billion as per September 30, up 42% over recent years, providing excellent coverage approximately 85% of fiscal year 2026. The service backlog stands at EUR 65 billion. Backlog margin uplift is embedded in our guidance and is driven by better pricing and improved operational excellence across all businesses. In Gas Services, new units improved by 5 percentage points and service by 1 percentage point in fiscal year '25 alone. In Grid Technologies, backlog margin improved by 3 percentage points in fiscal year '25 and by 9 percentage points over the last 3 years. The ongoing mix shift toward a higher share of Gas Services and Grid Technologies, both on strong margin trajectories, enhances visibility on group level margin expansion. Our decision to raise fiscal year '28 guidance is underpinned by contracted backlog and execution programs already underway. Turning to our fiscal year '26 targets. For Siemens Energy, we expect revenue growth between 11% and 13% with a profit margin before special items of 9% to 11%. Net income is targeted between EUR 3 billion and EUR 4 billion with free cash flow of EUR 4 billion to EUR 5 billion. By business area, Gas Services targets 16% to 18% revenue growth and profit margin before special items of 14% to 16%. Grid Technology expects 19% to 21% revenue growth and profit margins before special items of 16% to 18%. Transformation of Industry aims for revenue growth of 5% to 7% and profit margins before special items of 11% to 13%. Siemens Gamesa targets revenue growth of 1% to 3% and is on track for breakeven. For additional financial consideration for fiscal year '26, such as the reconciliation line, financial results and cash flow positions below free cash flow pretax, please refer to appendix Slide 23 of our Q4 analyst presentation. Let me quickly remind you also of our upgraded midterm guidance for fiscal year 2028. As we announced at our Q4 results, we upgraded our fiscal year 2028 targets significantly. For the group, we now expect revenue growth in the low teens CAGR through 2028 and profit margin before special items of 14% to 16%, representing a step-up of 400 basis points versus previous targets. Looking into the business areas, Gas Services now targets a mid-teens revenue growth CAGR and profit margins before special items of 18% to 20%, which reflects a 600 basis point uplift. Grid Technologies expects a high teens revenue growth CAGR and profit margin before special items of 18% to 20%, a 500 basis point step-up. Transformation of Industry aims for mid-single to high single-digit revenue growth CAGR and profit margins before special items of 12% to 14%. Siemens Gamesa is on track for breakeven in fiscal year 2026 and will continue its journey to 2028 with a mid-single-digit revenue growth CAGR and a profit margin before special items of 3% to 5% by fiscal year 2028 with a cash positive contribution at group level by that time. Looking beyond fiscal year 2028, the driver for -- of continued EPS growth are clear. Service monetization from today's new unit backlog will accelerate. Most of long-term service agreements are signed near commissioning and 80% plus of this service volume and quality of earnings, you will see it beyond 2028. Productivity remains the primary margin lever. Shop floor automation, AI-driven testing, repeatable designs and a leaner operating model. In addition, the trademark license fee agreement embedded in SG&A of the individual business areas, except Siemens Gamesa, which account for approximately 1% of the group ends in fiscal year 2030, creating additional margin headroom beyond the planning horizon. Our base case beyond fiscal year '28 assumes productivity first and pricing opportunistic, supported by sustained electricity growth. Let's move to our capital allocation framework. We are committed to balanced capital allocation approach. Approximately EUR 6 billion will be invested in the midterm planning horizon, which means fiscal year '26 to fiscal year '28 in capacity expansions for Gas Services, Grid Technologies and Siemens Gamesa, following clear principles, short payback periods, expansion within existing footprint and high service relevance. Shareholder returns will amount to up to EUR 10 billion over the next 3 years, including up to EUR 6 billion in share buybacks and around EUR 4 billion in dividends aligned with our 40% to 60% payout policy. We will maintain a strategic reserve to fund the India stake increased to 51% by 2028, selective bolt-on acquisitions and to support our investment-grade rating. Free cash flow for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 is expected at EUR 20 billion cumulatively, with cash conversion at or above 1 over the period. Net cash stood at approximately EUR 5 billion at the end of fiscal year 2025, and we intend to maintain a net cash position through fiscal year 2028 to protect resilience during growth. Now let's briefly discuss seasonality across our business areas. The flight level of orders in Gas Services for fiscal year 2026 should be above fiscal year 2025, in line with Green statement at the CMD. Please remember that strong order intake is paired with down payments that adds to free cash flow as we experienced in fiscal year 2025. When it comes to profitability in Gas Services, the historical pattern is that profitability is stronger in the first half versus the second half of fiscal year based on the new unit service mix as the first half is a stronger service season. This will not change in fiscal year '26. The flight level of orders for Grid Technologies for fiscal year 2026 should be at or slightly above fiscal year 2025 level, reflecting the strong market environment as shown at the CMD. However, due to lumpiness from large HVDC orders, quarters may deviate from the average. In Grid Technologies, the underlying profit margin is expected to be relatively stable across the quarters in fiscal year 2026, in line with previous years. For Transformation of Industry, the quarterly profit margin should be relatively stable across quarters, also in line with historical pattern. With reference to Siemens Gamesa, as mentioned in the Q4 call, we expect a rather linear improvement path in fiscal year 2026 to achieve breakeven, driven by the project mix and execution along the year and the timing of expected improvement measures. Q1 will, therefore, show negative profitability, and we expect Q4 to show positive profitability with Q2 and Q3 between Q1 and Q4. Capacity expansion in Gas Services. Let me outline some details on the capacity expansion. Prior to the CMD, we announced expansion plans where constraints pertain to units, not gigawatts. Hence, mix may always change a bit. For large gas turbines, that means large gas turbines above 100 megawatts capacity was set to increase from around 35 units in fiscal year '24, '25 to around 50 units per annum in fiscal year '27. For medium gas turbines, capacity was to increase from around 50 units in fiscal year '24 to 80 units already in fiscal year '26. Based on these announced plans, capacity would have been around 25 gigawatts in fiscal year 2027, including combined cycle application, which means that steam turbine output is included in this view. At the CMD, we stated that the next phase of capacity expansion will be implemented more dynamically, going up to and beyond 30 gigawatts until 2030. Karim mentioned 4 golden rules for capacity expansions, scale up within existing footprint, high service relevance, premium pricing and short payback period. This is the basis for our recent investment decisions. For large gas turbines, we will restart manufacturing of F-class gas turbines in Charlotte. Karim mentioned at the CMD, maybe we do 6 to 8 units on top of the around 50 units announced in Berlin. For medium-sized gas turbines, we are adding 20 units to the original plan, which means that the new capacity will be around 100 units. We are also reintroducing the A65 frame, which is a large aero-derivative gas turbine with around 65 megawatts dedicated for data centers in the U.S. market. Based on that, we add up to 5 gigawatts in the fiscal year '28 to 2030 time-frame versus our original plan, consistent with our target to keep around 25% to 30% market share in what we estimate to be a 90 to 100 gigawatt gas market, including combined cycle. As noted at the CMD, we are now sold out with respect to capacity, even taking into account the announced expansions until 2028, and we are now booking slots for 2029 and beyond. Before we move to major Q1 events, let me briefly touch on tariffs. As stated during our Q4 fiscal year '25 call, tariffs are embedded in our guidance for fiscal year '26. As of today, no major changes have occurred, the assumption made. The statement still holds. Turning to additional updates for Q1. One important event was on December 11, when the rating agency, S&P Global confirmed the recovery and stronger earnings power with an upgrade of the credit rating. The rating of Siemens Energy was raised from BBB- to BBB. In addition, the rating agency left the outlook positive, meaning that a further future upgrade is possible in the wake of higher profitability. Likewise, on December 17, the rating agency, Moody's has lifted our rating from Baa2 to Baa1 with the outlook stable. Last but not least, a comment on FX. As we are guiding on a comparable revenue growth, which means excluding currency translation and portfolio effects. As in the previous quarter, we continue to see higher comparable growth and nominal growth, which is mainly driven by U.S. dollar-euro volatility, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Consequently, we expect for Q1 comparable revenue growth, which will be around 300 to 400 basis points higher than nominal growth on SE level. With this, I would like to open the floor for Q&A. [Operator Instructions]

So I see one question from Kulwinder Rajpal.

I just wanted to get some clarity on free cash flow protection from a mid- to long-term perspective, given that we are seeing a lot of news around crippling financing around the data center market, how are you potentially protecting the cash delivery in the future years? If there is any insight that you can give me on that front, it would be helpful.

Well, so just maybe a question from my side. So I mean that in case there would be any downturn of the -- or the...

Yes, exactly.

I mean, in general, of course, we are seeing on the data center -- the data center part of the business is currently or was in fiscal year '25, only between 20% to 25% of the overall order intake for the Gas Service business. At the same time, we also mentioned that we had roughly EUR 2 billion of order intake at Grid Technologies last year related to data center. So that means in that reference, we, of course, get whenever we have reservation agreements, the down payments or the reservation fees. In case there is really an order intake, you still have the down payment for the projects, which normally relates to 10% to 15% of the project value. As I just mentioned, I mean, the relation of the order intake within Gas Services related to 20% to 25% is only one part of the overall business, while all the underlying trends are certainly also intact and where we also still expect strong demand in the upcoming years. So even, let's say, if there would be a certain downturn of the demand for data centers, we still see the demand in all the other areas continuing to be strong. So therefore, that would only have a, let's say, part of -- or partly an impact on the overall cash inflow from the down payments and also from the future, let's say, project execution. So therefore, we don't really see a very high risk. And in general, all the projects are managed in that way that we are actually cash positive through all the projects we are executing. Jonathan [Berkman] please.

I think you mentioned grid margins being relatively stable through the year. But if I look at previous years, it's not always the case that margins were stable. They sort of walked upwards over the course of the year, which also makes sense because grid is growing and as time goes by, you get better price [indiscernible] to backlog. So is there any specific dynamic this year, which is supporting first half margins such that may be like a little bit seasonally stronger than, I guess, what you would have thought if you just looked at it relative to prior years?

Well, generally, what you shouldn't forget is that we had one, let's say, special effect in last year's Q2, where, let's say, there was -- this one special effect certainly had a peak in the margins in the last year. So far, right now, as mentioned before, we don't really see that there should be any, let's say, significant ups and downs between the margin profile throughout the year. So therefore, of course, we are continuously working -- still working on the productivity level. And as you know, that the projects we are having in the order backlog are still continuing to be executed in a very long time frame. At that point in time, the only thing we can be saying that we are expecting that margin profile levels throughout the quarter should not be really varying that much. Next question comes from Gael de-Bray.

Look, just could you provide a bit of color maybe on the difference between the fees you receive for reservation agreements and the level of down payments you then receive on the firm orders? Is there a big difference between the two?

Well, I mean, we only once really provided further details on the amount we received for reservation agreements that was in Q1 fiscal year '25, where we mentioned that for roughly 20 gigawatts, we received EUR 200 million of reservation agreement fees. That might, let's say, vary a bit. We do not really provide an additional color on that in detail. But generally, you can expect that the down payments when the order comes in is significantly higher than the reservation fee. And the general technical way is that the reservation fee whenever it turns into an order is certainly then calculated into the down payment fee. But the reservation fee is never at the same amount as we -- as I mentioned before, that the down payment is normally 10% to 15% of the project volume.

And then the second one is on the order dynamics, maybe just looking at the Q1 outlook, you said you already received 8 gigawatts in the first 6 weeks of the quarter, right? So I guess we are very much on track to have a record high level in terms of new units awarded in the first quarter?

Yes, let's say like that. I mean, as Karim mentioned, and I think that was also the purpose of his mentioning the 8 gigawatts we already received between the Q4 results or, let's say, the end of the last fiscal year and the time of the Capital Market Day on the 20th of November, there are certain market dynamics continuing. So therefore, these 8 additional gigawatts certainly showed a certain impact. I cannot really provide any additional color on that in detail. But I think the dynamics we saw in the previous quarters kind of continued.

So if I combine these strong commercial dynamics for Q1 and the fact that there are still lots of down payments to be received, what does that mean for free cash flow in Q1? I mean we've seen a number of quarters where Q1 was seasonally weak, but will it be seasonally weak this time around given what's going on, on the commercial side?

Please maybe just remember Q1 in the last year, where we also saw that, I mean, as we have, let's say, fiscal year starting in October, our Q1 is different than, let's say, the Q4 of most of our customers. So there might be also partly or what we experienced 1 year before was that we received quite a lot of also down payments and so on as there were still cash budgets left on the customer side. So that was an effect we were seeing in the last year. If that will be happening this year, I cannot comment at that point in time, but it might be a pattern which could be repeated. Are there any additional questions? I've seen that Alex [indiscernible] sent an e-mail -- via e-mail as the function seemed not to work to raise the hand. The question is, could you update the slot reservation number following the 8 gigawatt signatures of the first 6 weeks? Clarify the 26 gigawatt at the year-end has dropped to 18 or has the 8 gigawatt converted in the first 6 weeks has been replaced by subsequent slot reservations? I think I commented it in the -- during the last 15 minutes that the 36 gigawatts, which already included the 8 gigawatts, which we commented at the Capital Market Day, which we had in reservations available, this is something which will turn within the next 12 months into orders. So that means, of course, you have a certain part of that, which will turn into orders. The specifics on that will be provided then at our Q1 results call. But generally, the 8 gigawatts were additional reservations. And at that point in time, as we commented at the Capital Market Day at this specific status, it is something which did not or we didn't see any additional turnover or let's say, like that, the overall 78 gigawatts in the backlog and thereof referring 36 gigawatts to reservations didn't really change in that way. So the next question goes to Sebastian Growe.

Just one quick question on Gas Services and the mix, especially within the service business. So I was just interested in some commentary around how we should think about the transactional services [fees] against recurring service bit. So if you just -- it should be better than how we should think about the margin dynamics in the first quarter in Gas Services?

Yes. I think we have seen the pattern in previous years as well that especially the first half of the year is certainly seeing a lot more transactional service as this is really the outage season where a lot of outages are taking place. And in that reference, customers also take the opportunity to do modification or upgrades, which normally always comes along with higher margins. So that -- and we also saw that pattern in the previous years, you normally can expect that the first half of the year shows, let's say, a higher margin level, while the Q4 is normally the weakest quarter of the year. So therefore, as this pattern of the outage season does not really change, you can expect that to be the same case in this year.

And if I may just ask one quick question around Grid Technologies. So apparently, the growth profile of the quarters has been quite different. If I look at the year '25, ranging from 16% nominal at the bottom end to up to 30%. And I think the quarter 1 comparison is also relatively lower one at 19% growth. So should we think about that in the way that the quarter 1 growth in Grid Tech should be meaningfully above than the full year target?

At that point in time, I would -- I couldn't really comment on that. Please, yes, that is something where I could not really provide you additional information, and therefore, I would ask you to really wait for the quarter results there. So we have another question, Gael, you have one additional question. I think Gael is still muted.

Can you hear me now?

Oh, now, I can hear you.

There seems to be a problem with your system. I need to switch from the computer to the phone and vice versa to be able to ask a question just for many times. Anyway, I was just checking if I did not miss any announcements from you in terms of large ticket items for the quarter, either on the HVDC side or on the offshore wind side.

No, so far, you didn't really miss any large announcements. There haven't been any press releases. Otherwise, we would have referred to that. But yes, there's always, let's say, the difference between, let's say, customers giving us the opportunity to communicate that. There might be some shifts also whenever we do press releases. So we are looking into that in order to provide more guidance maybe in the future to think about how we communicate larger orders. But at that point in time, you also didn't miss anything.

Okay, which means that potentially for both Grid and Gamesa, it's going to be a somewhat softer quarter than for the rest of the year?

I wouldn't say that -- I mean, for the wind business, that might be true. If we do not have, let's say, any large offshore orders, the baseline for onshore wind, as you saw the pattern in the last quarters as well is a lot lower, while in grid, we could also see in the -- I think it was the third quarter that even with the baseline, there's also still strong order intake, even though that if, let's say, no large HVDC orders would be included. I heard that Sean McLoughlin would also like to ask a question, but I cannot see his hand raised.

Can you hear me?

Yes, I can hear.

I'm also having problems with the hand raise. I just wanted to build a little bit on Alex's question in terms of the -- I suppose, any change, I mean, quarter-on-quarter in overall customer willingness to join that RSAQ? I mean I'm assuming that every quarter, that backlog, I'm joining the RSAQ at a further and further date outwards. So just keen to understand how that dynamics evolved over the last quarter?

As you could see, I mean, that there were, let's say, or we had a lot of discussions during the quarter in different calls on, let's say, new players in the field, for example, like Wartsila or Caterpillar. And even there, one has heard that their lead times might be also extending as there was such a high demand. You can expect that even slots going further out in 2028 are still very attractive for potential customers. So therefore, at that point in time, we don't really see any, let's say, declining demand in order to really reserve or fix spots on slots, which are available as 2029 slots are also filling up quite quickly. So therefore, at that point in time, we don't really see any different dynamics there. Well, so far, I don't see any additional questions at that point in time. So therefore, I would really thank you for the questions you raised. And now as a final reminder, our results will be published at 7:00 on Wednesday, February 11, with a webcast at 10:30 Central European Time, and our silent period will begin now tomorrow on December 19. Today's call has been recorded and will remain available until our Q1 fiscal year '26 publication on February 11, 2026. And now I really want to thank you for joining us and for your continued engagement. As we approach the end of the year, we wish you and your families a restful holiday season and a successful start to the new year. And I certainly hope that we will all engage also in 2026 as frequently as we did in this year. So thank you so much, and goodbye, and have a wonderful Christmas season.