Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

All right. We'll get started. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. All right. So our safe harbor statement that I won't go through but is available on our website and very important. If anybody is interested, please make sure you review that. So with that, we'll get into it. So we'll start off, before we get into the meat of the presentation, with a little bit of review of last year. So as we talked about on the earnings call last night, an absolutely tremendous financial results for the year for us. So first year ever, surpassing $1.1 billion -- or $1 billion of sales, nearly $1.1 billion first year in the -- first time in a 169-year history of the company and did that just in firearms last year. So absolutely tremendous and impressive results from Smith & Wesson team here. And as impressive or perhaps even more impressive was cash generated. So $317 million in cash generated from operations and pretty astounding EBITDAS margins of nearly 35%. So I just want to touch on this. I know we covered these numbers right, but -- and we talk about that flexible manufacturing model quite a bit. So just want to kind of hit on that a little bit here. And we'll talk as we go through the presentation about that flexible manufacturing model, what it does for us in the downturn and enabling us to maintain profitability. But we know this is a cyclical industry. And as we're at the peaks as we are right now, that flexible manufacturing model, allowing us to generate cash like this, when we're at the peak, we always know it grows over time. But we're lumpy, and we'll talk about that in a little bit. We're always looking at what we need to do in order to make sure that we maintain those gains in the downturn. Generating $317 million of cash gives us a lot of opportunity, presents us with a lot of options. So as we talked about yesterday, 14% reduction in outstanding shares and $8 million paid last year in dividends. And as we talked about, continued commitment towards that $50 million share repurchase program upcoming and an increase in the dividend of 60%. And talk about now -- just talking about looking forward and making sure that we're always set up for the long term, our profit share with our employees is not just the right thing to do. It's the right thing to do for our employees and for ourselves and for ourselves ethically. It's the right thing to do for our business. We can't be successful, and we can't deliver results like we delivered last year without every single one of the employees in the company being dedicated, having an engaged employee base, having a very strong culture. And we put our money where our mouth is, so $16.5 million paid back to the employees last year out of those profits. We created -- very proud of the fact we created 300 new jobs. So in a time when I think very well publicized, all the hardship that Americans faced last year in the entire nation of world-based last year, in that time frame, we created 300 new jobs for 300 families out there. And we're very proud of the fact that even when you take the management salaries out of it, an average pay here at Smith & Wesson is just under $50,000. So these are jobs that you can raise a family on. So very, very proud of that. And then in terms of the marketplace and the industry and setting ourselves up for continued growth, $15.9 million first-time visitors to our Smith & Wesson website last year. So the firearms industry as we'll talk about as we go through the presentation, astounding growth last year. And we really led the way. We're going to talk about that continued theme as we go through the presentation, but 16 million new visitors to our site. We were the first ones out there kind of -- I remember this time last year sitting in my office whiteboarding with Kyle Tengwall and Sue Cupero, VP of Sales and VP of Marketing, and going through and talking about the information about these new firearms consumers have just come out. And what can we -- who are they? And what is their purchase -- what are their purchase drivers? How can we talk to them? How can we welcome them into the firearms industry? How do we teach them how to be responsible firearms owners and how to use a firearm? And that was the genesis of the Gunsmarts program. And since that time, as we talked about last night, almost 50 unique videos created, teaching everything from the basics of firearms ownership to how to become a more proficient shooter. 2.2 million views of that since we launched it less than a year ago. And as we talked about last night, Phase 2 of that coming out now, recording those videos as we speak. And then finally, 2.6 million firearms units shipped last year, almost a 70% increase year-on-year, so impress -- very, very impressive results. And really what that drove for us, and we talk about a lot, and you'll hear we talk about it a lot on this call and into the future, is market share. Market share is what -- is how we think about and how we -- is the metric that we're driving towards in Smith & Wesson. And that's because, again, this is a cyclical industry, as you guys know, right? So -- and if we can always make sure that we're taking more than our fair share of the gains when the market is in a heightened demand like it is now and making sure we hold our ground better when the market goes into one of the troughs, then we're always going to be the #1. So as I mentioned earlier, a record-breaking year for the firearms industry in general, 42% growth, as we talked about last night. But as you can see on this chart, quarter after quarter after quarter of last year, we outpaced NICS. And when you look at the entire year, pretty astounding market share growth of 28%. And we think that's here to stay. A lot of that is here to stay. So frankly, last year, this was a story of operations. It was a story of that flexible manufacturing model and just making sure our product was available, more available at retail. But as we go forward and we don't expect that the entire market share gains that we've had will stick, but the majority of them will because even as the other manufacturers come out and start to catch back up and maybe we get back into a little bit more of a normalized demand pattern, number one, you've got somewhere between 8 million and I think upwards of 10 million, 11 million, maybe even 12 million new firearms consumers that have come into the market over the last year. And whose product was most available, Smith & Wesson's, right? So I think we've driven a lot of first-time shooters and first-time firearms owners into a Smith & Wesson, and we always remember it was one of those purchases. You're always going to remember the first brand of car you purchased. You're always going to remember the first brand of firearm you purchased. So a lot of brand loyalty there and a lot of lasting results. The second piece is our -- the partnerships that we drove and the partnerships that we strengthened with our channel and retail partners, the brick-and-mortar stores, our distributors, the strategic retailers, the big box stores. You can't quantify that. We've heard emotional stories about in the height of the pandemic, Smith & Wesson was the only product that I had available to sell. If it were not for you, I would have had to close my store. My employees wouldn't have food on the table for their families. So those kind of stories and those kind of relationships is just invaluable, and those won't be forgotten. We've gone from being the number in the pack in the top 5 with a lot of these customers to far and away #1. So we are front of mind now with a lot of our retail and channel partners. Okay. So with that, let's get into the -- take a step back and get into the strategy. So I think everybody is fully aware by now about the August 2020 spin-off. So -- and we've talked about this a lot, and we talked about it before the spin-off and since. But really, the driver toward that and the reason for the spin-off was, as we've said before, 2 very divergent business strategies, right? One for the Outdoor Products & Accessories Group that was very focused on inorganic growth and diversification. And for us, on the firearms side, very focused on organic growth and focus on being a pure-play firearms manufacturer. And the best thing for both businesses and for the shareholders was to allow those 2 businesses to separate and both focus on their respective strategies. And I think on both sides, I think that's been proven out to be that -- that was a good move in the last 10 months. So for us, what that meant, we have 1 thing to do. We have 1 customer base to take care of. We have 1 market, 1 industry to serve. And that really allows us to be very directed in our execution, to be very directed in everything that we do here in the business. And one thing that I'd like everybody to pay attention to as we go forward is how we are able to leverage our fixed costs. So we have a laser focus here inside the 4 walls here, too. Everything that we do, we need to be simple. We need to be easy to do business with. We need to be fast, quick, nimble, efficient, not just on the manufacturing side but on the back office side as well. So -- and you'll see the impressive results. I want to just highlight again. We had talked about it on the call last night, but our OpEx as a percent of sales last year was -- very proud of the team. The majority of the increase, the vast majority of the increase in our OpEx year-over-year was simply the profit sharing expense, which is a variable expense, obviously, based on the profitability of the company. So the fixed cost base stayed flat even though we doubled our revenue year-on-year. So that's -- and that's something we're going to continue to focus on going forward because we're going to be successful. This ship is built for rough and [ comsys ]. So we are going to be successful regardless of the firearms market and what happens in the ups and downs. And then finally, execution and results. And I think you see that in the results we just posted for the last year, but we have a laser focus on results. This is something I preach a lot to the team is let us not confuse activity and results. We always want to make sure that at the end of the day, we're delivering tangible, whether it's a marketing initiative or whether it's a production initiative or whatever function of the business we're looking at, we need to have a reason for doing whatever we're doing and making sure that we're always tracking towards delivery of those tangible results. All right. So just talking about the market real quick. You talk a lot about the lumpiness and volatility to the firearms market. But take a step back and look at the last 20 years and the CAGR is pretty impressive. It's 5.2% over the last 20 years. The market is up $5.2 billion, and we got a lot of runway for growth as we'll talk about on the next slide. But I think just in the market, in general, one of the most exciting things for us and for me is looking at the new shooters that have come into this marketplace. So it's not just the number of new shooters. It's the diversity of those new shooters in terms of women, of minorities, of different political views and backgrounds, and I think that's great for the firearms industry in general to really start to service a lot more of slice of Americana, if you will, of the population of America and hopefully make this a little bit less of a part as an issue and more of a it's a fundamental American freedom that all Americans are -- feel free to enjoy. So I think that bodes well for us into the future. And for us, as an industry and for us specifically at Smith & Wesson, we're -- as we just talked about, we are a big player. We're 1 of the top firearms companies in the nation and in the world. But we still have a lot of opportunity. We have a lot of untapped areas we can go focus on. The first one I'll talk about is innovation, and we talked a little bit about it on the call last night with that Shield Plus and how successful we've been with that. But you look at our product portfolio over the last couple of years between the Shield and the EZ and now the Shield Plus and the ability of Smith & Wesson new product development team to constantly innovate in this marketplace. And not just fast follow but address unmet consumer needs. And when we do have 1 of our competitors go into a market space that -- or identify a market space that we didn't, we don't just come out with a me-too product, as we'll talk about in a little bit. We come out with something that's better. We enhance on the existing. We have a bigger machine to crank up more products. So on the innovation side, 150 -- almost 150,000 Shield Plus as an example since its launch 3 months ago. So that's a huge opportunity for us. On the new growth side, Mark, you kind of hit on this last night a little bit with the ASP. And I think what you saw in those ASPs, a lot of the driver of that was kind of -- was that shift away from the hunting products on the TC side, and we're going to come back into those -- into that hunting market on the Smith & Wesson side and really write up the value chain. So we believe that we have a lot more permission to get up into that kind of mid- to high-tier hunting market under the Smith & Wesson brand. And that is going to be our goal there. And you're going to see us come back up very quickly into that market space in the next few months and then you'll see that evolution of that growth over the next couple of years. So a huge untapped area for us. The Thompson Center arms brand is a tremendous brand. Unfortunately, it's a bit of a niche brand, and Smith & Wesson is not a niche brand. Smith & Wesson is a powerhouse brand that we can really use and leverage to get into that market space. I talked a lot about the new consumers, but just to kind of highlight a point here. I mean our estimate of that lifetime value of those new consumers, you're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $40 billion, of course, over the lifetime of that consumer, but a tremendous opportunity for the industry. And a lot of the reasons why we're driving -- we're focusing so heavily on identifying who they are and making sure we connect and we're credible and relevant with those new consumers and bringing them over to Smith & Wesson enthusiasts fold. And then finally, adjacencies with our licensees, making sure that all of our products, whether it be apparel, whether it be knives or any of the other gun accessories, magazines, et cetera, any of those other categories, we're exploring every last avenue that we can to continue to get our product and our brand out there. Okay. So let's start getting into the meat of how are we going to get this done and how do we think about the business. So starting kind of I guess from the top and moving down. If you look over on the left slide of the slide here, as we look at the business and how we think about it, our keys to success and the things that we drive and spend a lot of time internally talking about, again, market share. You're going to hear that over and over again, how do we increase our market share in this -- in the firearms space. Business simplicity, I talked about it. We do things better, cheaper, faster all the time while still maintaining all of our nonnegotiables. You've seen on the right side, cost quality, execution, et cetera. Market-leading product portfolio. We're going to be the best. I talked about this a moment ago. We're not going to me-too an opportunity one of our competitors has identified. We're going to come up with something that's better. We're going to increase the feature set. We're going to make sure that we're offering more value. We're going to come out with new products that address unmet needs in the marketplace, in general. We're going to find white space. And then, of course, the end goal is to return value to the shareholder. And I think we've demonstrated that over the last year, and we're in a commitment to that going forward. Talked about the nonnegotiables that were on the right-hand side of the page there, but we have a brand name that's recognized and known for being world-class quality. Obviously, maintaining our cost base and keeping that low. I talked about that earlier, the execution focus, compliance of being a heavily regulated industry and obvious commitment to the second amendment of our employees. We want them to feel safe that when they feel comfortable with when they come home, they're going to go home safe at the end of their shifts. And finally, ethical business practices. Now how we kind of drive that, how do we move forward and think about the initiatives that we run in the business really kind of bracketed, if you will, into 3 separate pillars. And first one being the one that you guys heard us talking about for a long time but will continue to be one of our core focus areas in the business is maintaining that flexible manufacturing. And not just the capacity but the ability to ramp up and ramp down while maintaining profitability, et cetera. It's also the ability within the categories to be able to -- if revolvers are as strong as they are right now as an emerging market trend we're seeing right now. So we can switch over from within categories from pistols or rifles to revolvers and within a category for some -- concealed carry is a big push. We can ramp down on full size and increase it. So within and across product categories, we will also be flexible. Marketing driven is in the center for a reason, and we're going to spend a lot of time talking about marketing in this presentation but really making sure that every decision and everything that we do in the business is driven by our understanding of the brand and being true to our brand identity, what our brand means to our customer and making sure they work consistent in that. So again, we're going to cover that in some detail a little bit. And then finally, efficiency through automation, and this doesn't just mean efficiency through automation on the manufacturing floor and our distribution. It's efficiency through automation in our back office processes as well. How do we close the books faster? How do we use bots in our IT system to gain market insights faster, to slice and dice data and look at it in different ways that we can be out in front and leading and understanding what's happening in the marketplace and what opportunities we have in the business and really be sophisticated in how we run the back office business. And then finally, obviously, the foundation. We engage employees and culture. We talk about that a lot. It's not just something that we -- it's not just a buzzword that we use that we love our employees. We truly do love our employees, and I think we put our money in our office. I think you saw that earlier, $16.5 million shared back with the employees for the tremendous results that they delivered in the last year. So before we get into it, while we're on the employees. So I got to say that this is probably one of the most cohesive, talented management teams I've ever had the privilege of being involved with. And a lot of us have been around the firearms industry for a long time. A lot of us have been with Smith & Wesson for a long time. So 338 years total combined experience here at Smith & Wesson. The average tenure of our management team is 19 years here at Smith & Wesson. As a matter of fact, I think that with the folks up there, Kyle is the only one who hasn't been here at least a decade. But Kyle comes to us from the industry. He spent 20 years in the industry with Vista and spent some time with the Duck Commander guys back in the days. So -- but it's not just depth of background at Smith & Wesson. It's also a broad background and bringing in expertise and different perspectives from different areas, whether it be chemicals with Ecolab or consumer good companies, major consumer good companies with General Mills and in the firearms industry experience with consumer firearms brands such as Federal and Bushnell or public accounting firms of Deloitte. So we've got a very broad background and very deep within Smith & Wesson. And as I said, it's one of the most engaging cohesive groups I've had the pleasure to work with, so excited about what the future holds there. So we'll just go across the -- and spend a little bit of time talking about each 1 of the pillars on the flexible manufacturing side. I know you guys are very much aware of kind of that initiative, if you will. It's been around for a while, but just to kind of hit on it and highlight some things about it. So as we talked about, I think, and you can see on the bottom there, are our 10-year firearms net sales. And this is just firearms. It's pretty nice up until the left trend. But as we can see, I mean, there's some years like last year, we doubled revenue, and there are some years like FY '18, where we take a pretty good haircut on the top line. But with that flexible manufacturing model, we're a manufacturer. So our major cost in the business is manufacturing, is the manufacturing cost. So what that model allows us to do is in an industry and in an environment where at the end of the day, what we really do is we cut them out. So those are monument assets. They're -- and it takes a long time to get them installed, about 6 months from the time we decide we want to put a CNC machine on the floor until it comes in and gets installed and start running parts. About -- you're talking anywhere between $300,000 to $500,000 to get 1 CNC machine in to make between -- enough parts to do between 20 and 40 pistols or revolvers or depending on what part. So it's -- the point is it's a lot of capacity, effort, dollars spent on getting that installed. And then if the market falls off, now you've got that -- all that effort, all that money, all that depreciation is sitting there on the floor idle. So that flexible manufacturing model allows us to take advantage like we just did last year of the peaks and return value to the shareholders, reinvest in the business, do all of those good things that we talked -- make sure that we're setting ourselves up for the long run. And then in the valleys, you can see our average in U.S. margins over the last 10 years, 23% and almost 24%. I mean that's -- even for a stable industry, that's pretty impressive, right? So it allows us to maintain those profit margins because we don't have -- we maintain, as you can see on the kind of the visual over on the right-hand side, that base manufacturing capacity is always fully utilized. So we never have an absorption issue. We never -- we don't -- we usually don't have to have any kind of layoffs of our employees. We might just be moving employees around within the factory as the -- as we get it down into some of those troughs. So it's really a pretty unique and critical aspect of how we run the business, okay? So with that kind of as a backdrop of the operations team's got it no matter what happens, now let's talk a little bit about the market and how we're refocusing on our marketing as we kind of emerge as a stand-alone, pure-play firearms manufacturer after the spin. I think many of you on the call here have seen this before. This is -- you may think you've seen this before, but this is a very recent A&U study. Every single time we do a A&U study and look at the firearms industry and the firearms brands and how do we stack up against everybody else to consistent. The consistent result is that Smith & Wesson is always #1. Smith & Wesson is a top-rated brand, #1 rated brand in so many areas. We have the reputation for having the highest quality. We are the #1 most owned brand out there. We're the #1 most used brand, most trusted, number of people are aware of. We have one of the most iconic brand names in the industry. So we are already starting from a pretty enviable leadership position. But if we're going to say, as I said earlier, if we're going to say that marketing -- we're going to be marketing driven, and everything that we do in the company is going to be based on being true to our brand and being true to what we mean to our consumers and being -- then we need to make sure that we understand that, right? And so we spend a lot of time right after the spin-off doing some soul searching. And it's a bit of an ambiguous topic to discuss that, an intangible. But how do we make it tangible? We had to make it tangible so that we have a clear understanding of what -- within internally, what do we stand for and what do we stand for our consumers, so that when we make those decisions, we know it is consistent, and we have a consistent message that's relevant, that's credible. So that's the starting point of everything that we're going to talk about. So rather than going through this, we did put, as I mentioned on the call last night, we put a video together called Brand Anthem, that really kind of captures what the values and beliefs that we share with our consumers. And we're going to play that for you then we'll talk about it a little bit. [Presentation]

Okay. So as you can see, just really just trying to capture the essence of what it means to be a firearms owner and what we're trying to -- that connection, again, that we're trying to make with our consumers, whether they be somebody who's thinking about purchasing a firearm or somebody who's been shooting firearms for their entire lives and maybe even a competitive firearms owner. So -- and I think this kind of -- this video, once we release it out into our social media platforms and got it out there, we kind of -- we wanted to see, before we go too much farther, does that resonate? Is that -- did we kind of capture the essence of what our consumers think about us because at the end of the day, that's what matters. And as you can see here, it really did hit at home. So we really did kind of capture the essence of who we are at Smith & Wesson. And I think really kind of came back to we have a unique position with the brand. So Smith & Wesson is such an iconic part of Americana of American history that we have permission and credibility and relevancy to talk to firearms owners across the spectrum of where they are in their firearms journey. Again, whether it's somebody who's first thinking about purchasing a firearm or somebody who's been shooting firearms and own firearms for their entire lives. We are credible and relevant with -- we have credibility and relevance with everybody across the entire segment. So when we think about our brands, we always want to make sure we're serving our core customers. So our core consumers are -- they are the bread and butter. They are the lifeblood of the brand. Their recommendations and word of mouth is sought out by folks who are looking to purchase firearms, and they really help us on making sure that we're always innovating and doing and making sure that everything that we do in terms of the product, in terms of the message, in terms of -- resonates. And we got to make sure that we never alienate that loyal consumer base. But with that, we're also able to be welcoming to those new first-time gun buyers, right? So we have that, again, that history with the country, with the nation that we are welcoming, a more welcoming brand to somebody whose thinking about purchasing a firearm. They already probably know of Smith & Wesson even if they never purchased a firearm. So we've done a lot of research, and we'll talk about that as we go through here in a little bit, but we've done a lot of research in being data-driven in terms of who are those new firearms owners, who are the people who are thinking about purchasing, new firearms owners, what was their purchase reason, what are -- how do we talk to them, where do they get their information from, where do they shop their media, et cetera, and making sure that we're -- where they -- we're talking to them where they're looking, and we're giving them a message that resonates with them. And of course, the goal is lifelong enthusiasm and loyalty to the Smith & Wesson brand. So putting this into a little bit more tangible form, this is really how we think about reaching in our marketing and advertising. So that gun buyer in the middle, how do we find them. And find them means how do we -- really means how do we understand them, right? Do we understand everything about them? How do we get against data driven? And we'll see that on the next slide. And it's not just the new firearms owners, right? It's the existing firearms owners as well. This applies to both veterans and the firearms industry and enthusiasts as well as folks that are just coming into their firearms ownership journey. So find them means understands everything about them, right? Welcome them, speak to them, be relevant. Welcome the new shooters but also welcome the folks who have been here a long time. And what we mean by that is to be relevant in our messaging, be relevant, and it will be credible. And again, we're in a unique position where we do have that ability to play across the entire spectrum of firearms ownership. And then finally, surround them. We'll talk about that in a moment, but really, it's a 360-degree marketing approach and making sure that we're talking to them everywhere they're looking, right? So whether that be social media or whether that be print or whether that be online or whether that be our website or catalog and having consistency in the look, feel, messaging, et cetera of how we're trying to reach our consumers. So starting off with find them, as I mentioned, this is really a focused effort on understanding every segment of the consumer and what are the things that -- about them that are relevant to us. And this -- getting down now into tangibility of the marketing. This is who are they, right? So as we hear some of the statistics as it applies to our marketing and everything that we do is who are they? So 40% women, minorities in 2020. Okay, well, that's a different marketing approach. This is a demographic study, right? It's giving a marketing approach then maybe to some of our more traditional firearms owners. So how do we talk to them in a different way. Everything from pricing, how do we price our products, right? So how much are they spending on a firearm, right? So where -- how much pricing elasticity you have, where are those price breaks, right? What -- how much are they expecting to spend on a firearm, right? So we're not pricing ourselves out of the market and also not leaving margin on the table. Where are they making their purchases, right? So where should we be thinking about focusing our POS efforts. Why do they own a firearm, how often are they using it? How many guns they want. So the point is here that we're not -- the marketing approach is not a pretty picture and a fancy slope. It's using the marketing approach to drive the business and drive incremental market share, again, back to the core focus for the business. And then in terms of how do we talk to them and how do we engage and, again, be credible and relevant. We've got a bit of a challenge, while we have an advantage in that our brands relates across the spectrum, it also presents a challenge. And then how do you talk to somebody who's first time coming into the firearms owner and yet remain credible with the person who's been shooting firearms for their entire life and is an enthusiast. So this is kind of a graphic of how we think about it, which we try and get people comfortable with firearms, right? So if you're just now coming into the firearms industry, are you thinking about it? How do we gain -- how do we allow you to gain comfort with the -- with firearms? So that's things like Gunsmarts, right? So we talked about that a lot. You'll see a video here on in a second, but that focusing on that new shooter. And what are the things -- what are the barriers that they have, the intimidating barriers that we have in identifying those and just addressing them, just recognizing that, yes, it is -- this can be intimidating. We recognize that you might have these apprehensions. And so here, let me guide you along. Let me be a comforting, welcoming resource for you. Things like our website. I mean, one of the goals in our website was to become a lot more welcoming and have a website that looks a lot more like what the consumers are used to in the other consumer goods they purchased in their lives, whether it be other big consumer goods companies, Procter & Gamble, et cetera. How does it make our website a lot more welcoming, a lot more easy to use. Reach them via mainstream platforms, right? So I mean, this can be a challenge a little bit in this industry given the position of firearms ownership. But there are certain things we can do where we can tailor our message that we can get to folks, right, via unconventional mainstream platforms for the firearms industry. And then finally, improving that retail experience. So the old stereotype of the guns, the bars on the window and the ashtray full of cigarette butts for a gun shop, that's going by the wayside. And that's a lot of the industry in general and our partnership with manufacturers with the retailers to try and create that more welcoming environment. We have a retailer advisory council here at Smith & Wesson that we actually just met with 2 weeks ago. We spent a lot of time talking about this. They give us -- we spent a lot of time sharing ideas and kind of brainstorming on how do we make that retail experience a whole lot more welcoming for everybody, for the new shooters as well as a long time firearms enthusiasts. And then as we move up to kind of the spectrum competence gaming. Now I've got my firearm. I'm starting to shoot. I've learned how to take it apart, how to field strip it, how to clean it, et cetera, and now I want to get out to a range, and I want to see and start to gain confidence. We got to make sure we're there to meet those folks because that's the transition period where you're either going to -- you're going to turn them into enthusiasts or turn them into somebody who puts that firearm on the nightstand and never touches it again. So we're meeting them there. We got Gunsmarts Phase 2 coming out, as I mentioned last time on the call. So a lot of that focus is going to be on exactly that. So -- okay. So you got it. You've learned the very basics of the operation and the pieces and parts of the firearm. Now how do you join a social community? How do you get out to a range? How do you increase your proficiency, et cetera? We do a lot of retail events. We do a lot of training, with partnering with our channel partners, sending factory representatives out and making sure our brand is always at the forefront of those events as we're engaging with consumers in partnership with our channel partners. And then professional shooting team, so making sure we're leveraging. We got one of the -- some of the most well-known and recognizable professional shooters in the industry. We're blessed to have them on our -- working for us and on our sponsorships. So between Julie and Jerry Mikulich and Ken and -- so leveraging that professional shooting team. They've got credibility. They've got a lot of credibility, a series of multi-multi world record holder in the firearms industry. He's got all the credibility in the world and to have him walking around with Smith & Wesson logo on his shirt and doing video with content and teaching is -- goes a long way with bringing people along in their journey. And then as we get down into community, now I'm a firearms enthusiasts. Now I'm part of a community continuing to engage with those folks, social media, being relevant with a social media post and making sure that it's credible information for a firearms enthusiasts. Influencer, we're no different. We're a consumer good company. Social influencers are becoming a huge thing in the consumer goods world, and we're no different. So how do we make sure we're engaging with those popular social media influencers, making sure they understand where we're headed, what we want our brand messaging to be, et cetera. So we're doing a lot of work there. And then new digital platforms. So whether that be, I think, in the firearms industry, maybe a little bit behind the curve on sophistication in terms of whether everything from apps in that kind of space. So how do we -- what are some other creative unconventional ideas we can implement to really continue to connect and create that Smith & Wesson community. All right. So we'll just play a gun -- I talked a lot about the Gunsmarts. I'll just play just a quick preview of our overview what the Gunsmarts program does and some of these videos. So this is our Series 2 trailer. [Presentation]

So as you can see, and as I mentioned last time on the call, the 2.5 -- almost 2.5 million views of those videos, so extremely well received and the feedback that we get and that we see on social media and that we get on our website and on the YouTube channel is just -- is resounding. Just thank you, Smith & Wesson, just somebody there to explain to you, how do you -- how do I load a magazine, how do I -- the basics of that some of us in the firearms industry sometimes take for granted. How do you drag a slide, how do you field strip a pistol? How do you load a revolver, as you saw here. A lot of that is going on very long way, and a lot of it is you'll see a lot of us -- I was talking with Kyle Tengwall the other day. And a lot of it -- our Facebook page will post one of these videos and a set of comments underneath, we'll have people tagging other people's names, saying hey so and so, hey so and so, and is obviously experts passing it on or enthusiasts passing it on to maybe novices. So James, I saw your hands up there. Did You have a question?

Sorry. No, I'll wait till the end.

You're first in line. I promise. All right. So finally, on the marketing approach, a 360-degree approach, as I mentioned earlier, and really the takeaway from this is whether somebody is looking, coming through a Field & Stream magazine or whether they're on our website, whether they're looking at our catalog, whether they're on our social media page or they're at a retail location seeing our POS collateral or the Gunsmarts video or our brand anthem that you saw earlier, the look, feel, messaging needs to be consistent. We need to -- and it always needs to be true to who we are as a company and who we are as a brand. And so that's really the idea behind the 360 degree marketing approach is find out where folks are getting their information, where they're shopping their media and making sure we're there and that we've got a consistent, relevant, credible message. Okay. So last slide on marketing, just to touch on product real quick and innovation. So on the new product side, as I mentioned on the call last night, we got a pretty healthy pipeline coming up this year but very excited about it. And just to give a little background about how we think about new products. So we really have kind of a two-pronged approach, if you will. So first the is we recognize that we're always -- we're not always going to be able to identify market trends. And we are -- we got formidable intelligent competitors who are going to sometimes identify an opportunity, a market opportunity that we didn't, okay? So really, on the left side there is identify and address existing market white space. That's market white space for us, right? And the most, I guess, appropriate example is the Shield Plus, which we just launched and we've been talking about. So that Shield Plus, we didn't identify that marketplace. That market space was there already, and it was identified by SIG and Springfield with the 365 and the Hellcat, okay? So -- but -- so that's a low risk for us, okay? So what we can do is -- that's a lower risk. We know that market is there. And if you go all the way to the bottom, we got one of the best brands in the industry, one of the most powerful, most recognizable brands in the industry. So we know if we come into that category and we do it right, we're going to take market share because people seek out Smith & Wesson. We have a loyal following and people -- and we have a reputation for quality. So that allows us to steal market share. But we aren't -- as I said earlier, we're not going to come out and just me-to it. We're going to do something different. We're going to -- whether it's value for the price, whether it's features, whether it's flat-based triggers as we put on the Shield Plus, whether it's a higher round capacity as we get or a higher magazine capacity, we're going to do something on that gun to make it better. So we're going to -- and we got a bit of an advantage because we got something that we're looking at that we're improving upon, okay? So again, low risk. And we can make it better and back to that flexible manufacturing. We got the biggest machine in the industry, and we can make more. So we can really get the product out there and as we just showed the Shield Plus, almost 150,000 units pumped into the marketplace in the first 3 months. So a great example there. On the -- and then the other side, though, is the largest opportunity we have, the #1 pistol still today in the marketplace that Shield EZ. And that's a huge opportunity for us -- was a huge opportunity for us. We addressed it. We met it. And that's looking for new space. So both of these are obviously are designed to take market share, but one of them is stealing market share that's out there, and one of them -- and the other one is expanding the market. So that EZ was, as we've talked about many times before and many of you on the call are aware, it was just -- it was simply how do you -- it can be hard for a weekend tutor to rack a slide, to load a magazine. So we task the engineers with how do you go figure that out. We'll figure out how do we make a slide that's easier to rack. How do we make a magazine that's easier to load. How do we address those unmet consumer needs, launch that pistol out there. It's for, I think, now 2 years. It's been the #1 selling pistol in the market. So it's obviously a huge opportunity for us, expands that market. And whereas on the first one, we're leveraging our brand. Now we're enhancing our brand. Now we're elevating the brand reputation of Smith & Wesson and continuing to keep those loyalists engaged. No matter which side of the lanes are coming down, speed to market is key for us. If somebody has beat us to a market space that we might not have addressed or might not have identified or might not have -- or might not be -- or might have beat us to being the first to market, we got to be fast. We've got to get there quick. We got to make sure that we're not missing out on that. And on the flip side, if we're identifying -- if we're trying to meet an unmet need, we don't want anybody, as I said, we got formidable smart competitors. We don't want them beating us to market, so we got to be fast. So no matter which channel we come down, we've got to have fast NPD, and our engineers do a tremendous job of that. I think we've got some of the best engineering teams in the industry. And obviously, as always, improve on areas we can work on speed to market, and that's something that we're always focused on. Obviously, that leads to industry-leading product portfolio, making sure there are no areas in the marketplace that we're leaving untapped. We want to participate -- again, participate in all segments, keep those brand loyalists engaged, making sure our brand is always front of mind, and we're always fresh with our product line. And then obviously, the main goal, as I said, we were going to keep talking about is maximizing that market share. And then finally, beyond product. I just want to talk about this real quick. We think about innovation as product and beyond product because we really do want to be sophisticated in how we approach the firearms industry. And that comes down as you can see down in the picture down below, that retail display that I mentioned last time on the call. So how do we be more sophisticated and how the consumers view sophistication on our website, sophistication in our social media, things like getting more polished in how we go to market in our materials. And so using our licensees, apparel, right? So how do we have T-shirts, et cetera, that we can turn our loyal consumers into billboards for us and have them help them help us push our brand forward. But you've got to give them a T-shirt that they're going to be wanting to wear, right? So being relevant in the -- just the overall social trends, right? So we're going to try and think about innovation in product guest, of course, but also beyond product and how we approach the marketing side as well. Last slide for me, efficiency through automation, just real quick, obviously, as we talked about this earlier, operations makes all the sense in the world. Everybody understands automation and operations, so whether it's distribution, huge competitive advantage for us with that distribution center out in Missouri. They do a tremendous job. They can shift not just the depth of our products. They can ship not just the depth of our product. They can not just ship volume. They ship the breadth of our line, the ability to take a 200-line order and process it in a matter of minutes is frankly amazing and has really been a game changer for us this year. And a lot of the feedback we get from our consumer -- or I'm sorry, from our channel partners is just that, that they don't know how we're doing it. We're delivering not just depth and not just volume, but we're delivering breadth across the entire line. Manufacturing. One of our competitive advantages, obviously, is our adherence to quality, our reputation for world-class workmanship, et cetera, the throughput and the facility, I think, all that's been fully proven out. But then on the back office side as well, as I talked about earlier, how do we get more sophisticated than everything that we do on data analytics? How do we -- and these 2 graphics up here are actually metrics or dashboards that we use to run the business. So how do we get more sophisticated and understand, how do we drill down into being inquisitive? And that doesn't make any sense without having to spend 3 days pulling the data, setting our data set up so that it's automated, so that it's sophisticated so that we can, in a matter of minutes, do analytics to understand market trends, business trends and react and be quicker and more nimble on our back office as well. So with that, I'll turn over to Deana.

So as you know, it appears that what we do, we have committed to try to provide as much information as we can to give you the methods of which to use to evaluate how we're doing and how we think about the business. Mark talked about that left side of the slide there. So I'm here just to briefly update you on the right hand side. Mark talked about the 23.6% EBITDA. We're pretty pertinent the 20% to 30% EBITDA on a forward basis is something that we can readily achieve. As you know, we're at 34.6% this year, the full year. We had 39% during the fourth quarter. So clearly, revenue is on the high end. We're going to be at 30%, maybe a little bit above 30%. But on the low end, we don't expect to really ever dip below 20%. So that's a positive thing. When we look at less historically, and historically, we were building a bigger business. So our historical hire EBITDA is rained by the growth that we were doing for acquisitions. So we've had bigger departments, more shared service and back office stuff, we really laid the business out of seeing that, looking anywhere near that 20% would be very, very low. So I think we can safely say we're going to be on the higher side of that range for the next foreseeable future. And then when we think about margins. Being that mainline manufacturer, we have great margins even in low line [ smart cut ] We keep 100% of capacity even when the $0.5 million sales is the range of sales that we're doing. We have $0.5 million sales. And that we're able to achieve that 42% growth record and [ $1 million ] sales. Those are really healthy margins that drive overall profitability. So think about our margins is a range. Recognizing flexible manufacturing may cause us to give up a little bit of margin, but with the size of the volume, size of the margin and having that ability to just take that contribution right to the bottom line, our margins really grow as revenue grows. Looking at the balance sheet, we've been asked this a lot. And looking at the capital allocation, where do you want to be in cash, with your cash on hand. We pushed ourselves a target to not really just below that $100 million of cash and have no debt. We are committed to not generating anything that really puts us in, I feel, a large acquisition. We feel that it's safer for us to just operate on the cash that we have. Clearly, there are times where we're going to grow to more than $100 million of cash. We talked about last night that we are limited to 20% of a share count repurchase through August 2022. So we're not going to be able to do a lot of share repurchases after the $50 million that we'll just authorize this week. So we'll grow cash. And that's okay. We're comfortable adding cash because we'll be able to deploy that by investing in the business. We have $25 million of capital spend. We'll always generate at least $75 million. And as you could tell by the over $300 million generated this year that $75 million is very much on the low end, but we're prepared to generate less cash if that means we have to build inventory again. Inventory is not a bad thing. We have the ability in the early days of the surge last year during the pandemic. We had inventory on hand because of our strong balance sheet. We were able to deploy that inventory through additional execution channels, get it into the hands of our customers, our consumers and then work on those like the low manufacturing using that inventory as a cushion, while flexible manufacturing gets turned on. Similarly, as it turns flexible manufacturing down, as things kind of slow down, we'll build inventory again, and we're happy to build inventory. That means that we can catch any trends, any changes as we need to. So in some years, we may have lower cash generated. It's not always going to be very complicated. And we'll use that extra cash generated to return money into the business, to our employees and to our investors. We'll grow the dividend. It is our stated interest in being a direct dividend stock [ sales]. We'll look to continue to grow it. We grew at 60% this year and then reduce the share count by mid-year. It is not in our intention to flush cash out. So the special dividend, we want to be able to be slow growth and really monitor conservatively so that we can be there and have the ability to grow through the market, capture market share, sometimes make adjustments through gross margins to drive into the market when we need to but to really be able to be flexible and not to be in a situation we're desperate to do any one thing at any time. So with that, I think we'll a little bit [indiscernible] and allow you to ask questions.

I promised James he could go first.

I appreciate that. Am I up?

You're up.

You're up.

I promise I'll figure out the Zoom thing by the time that we're back to -- in the office. But I wanted to really hone in on this last slide, which I thought was interesting just because so many investors are concerned once this goes back to some previous level of sales. But this idea that no matter what happens, you could do 32% gross margin, 20% EBITDAS margin. I guess if I look back, and some of this is a little bit muddled because of the spin. But if I look back at 2018, right, I think the gross margin was 24% for firearms, and I think that EBITDAS margins were 14%. I guess, correct me if I'm wrong on that.

You're right.

Yes. Correct.

But how do you bridge that gap, I guess, is versus 2018, not that long ago, versus what you think on a go-forward basis will be significantly higher than that in sort of a worst-case scenario.

Yes. That's a great question. And actually, I'm glad you asked it. So the difference, in a nutshell, is kind of what Deana touched on, right? I mean, so we have a different business operating model. And the simplification of moving towards a strictly firearms focus does 2 things for us. One, on the cost base. We had a shared services model, which was required and were for us to be able to continue to be as acquisitive as we were being, because we were bringing in all these outside businesses, and we needed to have a big HR department and a big -- because we were -- because we didn't want -- those are all the functions that we're eliminating out of these new businesses that we're bringing in. Well, you go back to now March of last year, we made some pretty big moves. We have big headcount reduction. So these are not intangible things I'm saying we're going to do in the future. These things that we have done, okay? So we went through, unfortunately. That did mean that we had to cut some people out of the business and eliminate a whole lot of roles. But we're a pure-play firearms manufacturer with really with 1 main manufacturing location here in Springfield, Massachusetts, where our headquarter is attached. And then we have 3 satellite locations and very, very specialized. We don't have a whole lot of need for a whole lot of overhead. And that's a lot of exactly what you mentioned is a lot of the reason why 1 of those pillars on that strategy is efficiency through automation. We've gotten ourselves to a point now where our OpEx as a percent of sales last year was 12%. We don't want that, obviously, if revenue drops that the percentage is going to go up, but we don't want that fixed cost base to change. We've gotten ourselves to a place now where we're very efficient. We've proven we just did $1 billion in sales with this fixed cost base, and we don't need it to go anywhere. So that is one of the focuses of the business, and that's why we have that kind of efficiency through automation. That's what that's kind of getting towards. The other thing that, that allows us to do on the top line is a lot of the reason why you saw that 24% gross margin on firearms promotions. So there was 1 mode and 1 mode only, and that was when the market starts to soften, we're just going to run out and start promoting that and a lot of our products. We're not doing that anymore. We will not -- we have a value proposition. And that's -- and we will understand our consumers. We will get creative. We will do the things that we need to do to invest in the marketing side. And that's not to say that we're never going to promote. Of course, we may have to get back into promoting, but it's not our go-to number one. It's pretty far down the list, frankly, the last resort. So -- and we're getting into that right now, actually, in this environment we talked about last night that the firearms market is, this inventory pockets starting to show up. And we're way out in front of that. We got our sales team is out this weekend and last weekend doing events of retailers and what can we do to get creative around -- we just launched up a firearm back to the bundling of other accessories with it. And those are things that we can do to maintain our margins. We're always going to -- we have a different expectation and a different mindset on our price and the value that we should be able to command for our product, and we're moving up that value -- that hierarchy. And that was, again, Mark touched on it last night, a lot of the ASP changes you saw in the fourth quarter was we're not selling TC rifles anymore, and that's another one. So we're not playing in that down dirty -- in that down and dirty price range. We -- our brand, Smith & Wesson brand can command to the mid- to high tier. And that's where we're going to be.

When you think about it, James, since we picked it up in 2018, which is 2016 and 2018, we put them together, the elections and the aftermath of the elections, there was so much inventory in the sales that was the rebound of a real push of industry into the channel. And then 2018 was the bankruptcy of a couple of distributors. We ended up in this race to the bottom on pricing. And pushing those, we were trying to drive the inventory through the channel. With what we're doing here and how we are turning more towards the consumer rather than pushing in through our channels, we're looking to drive that customer into the retailers to say, that is a lesson. That's the one I want. And pulling it through, through the actual marketing to that direct to consumer. So we're not interested in getting into that race to the bottom and push inventory anymore.

That's really helpful. And maybe just 1 follow-up here. So if you think you could do that in a -- I hear that part of the answer is you hope that you're not in a 2018 scenario ever again from a demand perspective. But I mean, I think what I'm hearing is that you could do 20% of EBITDAS margins even with revenues in the mid-400 range, which, by my math, on your current share count is EPS comfortably north of $1. Is that -- does that sort of jive with what you guys are saying here?

Absolutely. Yes.

That's exactly it.

We hope we don't get back to 2018, but if we get back to 2018, as I kind of mentioned earlier, we got a ship -- we built this ship for -- it's custom-built for these waters. So we think we can do it. All right, Scott.

Got it. Questions on the flexible manufacturing. Obviously, it's a huge part of helping you maintain some base margins. Can you maybe just go into the nuts and bolts of it? Is it just simply eliminating or reducing the amount of vertical integration on the supply side? Or is there anything more towards you have people out there that are finishing products for you? Just trying to get a sense of how the whole thing.

Sure. Yes. Essentially, the way the manufacturing facility is set up, and if we were able to do this and when we're finally able to do this in person again, we'll take you guys on a factory tour again and show you this in person. But the way that the factory and our operations or manufacturing is set up is we have, you can kind of think of we've got this core coming down the middle that is our capacity constraint that is machining metal. So I always say that's what Smith & Wesson does from a nuts and bolts manufacturing perspective. We cut out. We're precision machining out. As we have all the machining happening, and that's capacity constrained. That runs 24/7. It's -- that is our capacity constraint. We want -- those are our monument assets. Those are those $500,000 CNC machines that take 6 months to put in place. Okay. So we've got all of that manufacturing capacity that is capacity constrained. And then all of the finishing operations and the assembly operations and the bluing and the -- all of that -- all of those processes are not -- are capacitized so that they have more -- so that we never have that main pipeline waiting on any of those. So those will run 24/5 or they won't even run 24 hours a day, et cetera, okay? So all of our -- essentially, what we're doing is the outsourced manufacturing is that main center piece. We have all the flex that we need on, for example, finishing or assembly or to make the increases that we talked about. All we need is more parts. So all we got -- so then we get outsourcers to help us. They feed more into that center pipeline for us. So they're making slide barrels, that kind of stuff, for us, along with us, right? They're making the exact same parts that we're making inside. So that allows us to make that center pipeline get bigger and suck up that capacity that we've got available on the ancillary processes. So that allows us to flex, obviously, as you saw this year. And -- but then the flip side to that is we're set up so that when -- if and when the market contracts, we just stop putting more stuff in the top. But our main -- but our capacity always stays at 100%.

Got it. And if I could just slip 1 more in. Just what you were just talking about, about certain pockets of inventory that have popped up and you're -- obviously, you've got people in the field working on it. Can you maybe just talk about that a little bit more, which specific product types? Or is that just basically maybe more market-driven or regionally?

It's very regional. And I think it also depends on the size of the customer. If they're kind of a more of a major player with some of the distributors, they might be able to get more product. Whereas if they're a B or C dealer, they might still be having completely empty glass cases. So it's regional, and it varies depending on who you're talking to. But it's the first time we've seen in the last, frankly, 16 months, anybody being able to get any inventory, which is kind of an indication for us that going into a "little bit of the normal seasonality", albeit at an elevated level. I guess, let's online. We'll pay attention to who came in first. Steve?

That's great. Can you hear me, Mark?

Yes. I can.

I was hoping you could spend a little bit more time on the product expansions, particularly, you talked about shotguns. You talked about rifles, both I think, very established areas with some very big established brands. But you guys certainly have one, too. Until now, I think you guys have been hesitant to go into either area, particularly with the Smith & Wesson brand, you have a little bit on the rifle side with Thomson Center. But could you give a little bit more color as to sort of how you plan to attack that? When you plan to attack that, et cetera?

Sure. We have some products kind of in the pipeline right now that we're going to be able to come out and really, frankly, kind of dip our toe in the water with that initially in the next couple of months. There's a couple different categories there. Long-range shooting is a category on the bolt action side that is -- it's got a lot of opportunity for some higher-margin products. It's kind of a -- as we think about our spectrum of buyers, it's in the enthusiast side, and those are the guys that are willing to go out and spend $1,000, $2,000, $3,000, sometimes depending on how serious they are, $10,000 on a rifle for the long-range shooting category. So that's an area where I'm fully a big stretch for us to be able to kind of get into that category. And we can go there quick. On the shotgun side, there's -- obviously on the shotguns, there's tactical shotguns, home defense shotguns, hunting shotguns. That's a very broad category. Again, we have -- we got -- there's not a branding stretch for us at all to get into the home defense side, right? So we got to think about that and kind of like an entry you're cracking the door into those 2 categories. On the long range, we very firmly believe we've got a great marketing plan to get into hunting. It's actually when we do a lot of our A&U studies, one of the things that is funny to us sometimes or presents an opportunity is that we're identified usually in the top 3 or 4 brands in shotguns and rifles, even though we don't make one. So people think of Smith & Wesson as being just firearms across the board. So we definitely have room to play there. And -- but you're right. It's a crowded space. But we're not looking to get down into that lower price point. We're looking at the mid- to high tier, which tends to be a little bit more of the lower volume, mid-tier, mid- to low volume, but really nice high margins and really fits well with our brand, which is kind of that aspirational mid-to-high tier brand.

And I guess the implication here is that you try to do most of this organically, just leveraging your brand. Would you ever spend a lot of carnage in the firearms space in the last 3, 4, 5 years? Would you ever look to do something acquisitive? Or is the thought that this is easy enough to do when you have the brand name and you just do it yourself?

I don't think we'd ever do anything in a category that we already participate in or that we're already a player in. I'm just not sure the sum of 1 plus 1 equals 2 with that. So that said, there's a lot of space in the firearms industry and categories and product categories that we're not in. And if there's somebody who's got a formidable brand in that area, I'm not going to say -- we're never going to say never, right? So if something like that comes up, that would be something that we would opportunistically look to see. Scott or Ryan, sorry.

This is Ryan. Just wondering if you can give us some color on the cadence of launching new products. So are you planning on doing 1 every quarter? Kind of how are you guys thinking about that?

It's a great question. I think the answer, I'm sorry, is it depends. So you think about like last year, we had a lot of products and launched -- planned for launch for last year. And it was a different environment as we came into February of 2019 versus where it is -- sorry, February 2020 as to where it is today. So a lot of those products, we kind of put them on the shelf because we didn't need to, right, or because they weren't really -- they were more filling out the product line versus kind of market shifting products like the Shield Plus. So as we go into this year, it's going to depend on where we -- on where the market goes. And we're prepared for, as I said, we've got a custom-build ship for any waters as the market kind of softens a little bit and we've got capacity availability, and we're -- we've got opportunity, we'll opportunistically launch some of those smaller line extensions or major line extensions. But we'll probably continue on -- I think what you can expect is that at least 1 or 2 a year just because from a branding perspective, we've got -- we are a consumer brand. We've got to keep our brand out there and keep our consumers excited about us. So you'll at least see 1 or 2 big ones a year regardless of what the market does.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just one more for me. Do you guys have kind of a target R&D number that you're going to try to get to this year and then maybe kind of the next following years? Is there something that you guys are targeting there?

You mean target R&D spend or revenue from new product?

Spend?

No. And we never really -- I don't know how much detail we've ever gotten into that. Deana?

Yes. Our R&D is labor based. we don't need to significantly -- you'll see, this year, we didn't come out with a lot more new products. We're developing them, and our R&D group is very good. So we don't have significant variations or need to really drive dollars into R&D since it's our engineers that do these recent development for us. So I wouldn't see significant variation even though we have a drive to, I think, many new products this year. So I don't think we're going to see any huge variations. Anybody else?

Yes. I've got a question. Good presentation. So I've got 2 questions. One is, as you know, either the buyer as a first-time buyer or, on average, they own something like 8 to 9 guns, which is kind of an extraordinary statistic, as far as I'm concerned. So what percent -- can you give us some color on what percent of your sales last year and the last couple of years were from first-time buyers? Because obviously, the more first-time buyers, the more you have folks who could go on to kind of do what the other guys have done.

Yes. It's tough for us to measure that just because we -- as you know, we have a multistep distribution network. So here's -- but what -- here's what I can tell you is that given the fact that the overall market, the estimation is 40%, at least, we hear a lot of information about the fact that, that number is low. At least 40% of the buyers over the last year in new shooters and Smith & Wesson outperformed the market, you can probably assume that we are at least 40% of the product going in was probably going to new purchases.

And how does that compare with, say, fiscal '20 and fiscal '19, the averages up until now?

I don't know that we or NSSF or anybody has ever -- or at least I'm not aware of it, and we can maybe take a look and see if we can find that information for you, Cai, separately and let everybody know if we find it. I'm not sure they've ever done that study up until last year. I mean I think that kind of came out of the realization pretty quick and early on in the pandemic that we had a lot of -- from the retailers, there was a lot of new folks coming in, so we started paying attention to it. So I'm not sure if I'd be kind of convenient. I would be giving it a guess.

And then kind of switching gears a little bit, Mark or Deana. By my numbers, as you look at your cash flow, you should -- you could end this year with over $200 million in cash. And you said you don't want cash to get below $100 million. But given your formula, if you're always aiming for $100 million, I mean you might have a delay for a year, but you got to spend a lot of money in terms of buying back stock or raising the dividend. How do you think about that upper limit? I mean how high will you let cash go? And for how long would you run an elevated level of cash when you think about that?

Yes. Obviously, we've got a short-term constraint there given the 20% limit that we've got that Deana mentioned earlier. So the 1 thing I will tell you is we're really -- we're going to shy away from any kind of special dividends. We think there's just better usage for our -- use for our money. So we will have a short-term issue here over the next year, probably. And we will -- we're not afraid to build up a war chest. And as we go into next year, you can probably draw your own conclusions as to if there's an opportunity, we've got a business need for that. Obviously, we've got it there. We've got a lot of options with that cash then, right? So if there's a business need, we've got that opportunity. If there's -- if -- as we talked about earlier, I don't know if there's some opportunity that comes up opportunistically on the inorganic growth side, we've got that. If none of that is there, we're very committed to return that value to the shareholder. All right. Any other questions? All right, going once. Okay. Well, with that, I just want to say thank you guys all very much for taking the time this morning. Enjoy the weekend and looking forward to seeing everybody in person again next time we do this. Thanks, guys.