StubHub Holdings, Inc. ($STUB)

Earnings Call Transcript · May 18, 2026

NYSE US Communication Services Entertainment Company Conference Presentations 35 min

Highlights from the call

In the Q1 2026 earnings call for StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB:US), management reported a strong performance with gross merchandise sales (GMS) guidance of $10 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 8% to 10% for the year. EBITDA is expected to range between $400 million and $420 million, indicating a positive outlook for margin expansion. Management emphasized the resilience of the live events market and the anticipated benefits of lapping the all-in pricing impact, which they expect to smooth out in the second half of the year, contributing to improved sales performance.

Main topics

  • Revenue Growth and Guidance: StubHub expects GMS growth of 8% to 10% for 2026, with a strong emphasis on double-digit growth in the back half of the year. CEO Eric Baker stated, "we're very confident in our guidance and stand behind it."
  • Impact of All-In Pricing: Management acknowledged a 10% conversion hit from the all-in pricing rule implemented last year but indicated that this impact will be behind them by Q3 2026. Baker noted, "Q3 will be the first quarter where we really have a clean pass from AIP."
  • Open Distribution Strategy: StubHub is pivoting to a product-led approach for its open distribution strategy, which aims to simplify ticket sales for content owners. Baker highlighted that the opportunity could tap into a $160 billion market, stating, "it's a large opportunity. It's a large ocean of tickets."
  • Advertising Opportunities: StubHub sees significant potential in advertising, particularly through sponsored listings and partnerships. Baker emphasized the importance of getting the customer experience right, stating, "we want to make sure we get it right for the long term."
  • Regulatory Environment: Management discussed ongoing regulatory efforts regarding ticket resale price caps, asserting that such measures could lead to a black market. Baker explained, "reports have shown from economists even 4x as much fraud," indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of price caps.

Key metrics mentioned

  • Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS): $10B (Guidance for 2026, reflecting 8-10% growth)
  • EBITDA: $400M - $420M (Guidance for 2026, indicating strong profitability)
  • Conversion Hit from All-In Pricing: 10% (Estimated impact expected to be lapped by Q3 2026)
  • Market Share: Close to 50% (Positioning as market leader in secondary ticketing)
  • Potential Open Distribution Market: $160B (Estimated total addressable market for open distribution)
  • Advertising Contribution: (Not expected to contribute materially in 2026)

StubHub's strong guidance and strategic initiatives position the company well for growth in 2026. Key catalysts include the anticipated recovery from all-in pricing impacts, the expansion of their open distribution strategy, and the integration of AI. However, regulatory risks and the uncertain timeline for advertising contributions remain potential headwinds to monitor.

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#1

All right. We're going to get it going. I'm Doug Anmuth, JP Morgan, Internet analyst. We're pleased to have with us StubHub Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO, Eric Baker. Eric cofounded StubHub in 2000, and it was later acquired by eBay. In 2006, Eric founded viagogo as an international secondary ticketing marketplace. And in 2019, viagogo announced the agreement to acquire StubHub. Prior to StubHub, Eric worked for McKinsey and [indiscernible] Capital. Today, StubHub operates the largest global secondary ticketing marketplace. Last year, buyers purchased more than 53 million tickets from more than 1 million unique sellers on StubHub's marketplace. And this year, the company should generate around $10 billion in gross merchandise sales. So welcome, Eric.

Eric Baker

Executives
#2

Thanks for having me, Doug. Appreciate it.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#3

All right. So you cofounded StubHub 25 years ago. But your path since then kind of taking the company to where it is today has been quite unique. Maybe you can walk us through a little bit of that history and just how that shapes your view of the ticketing industry today.

Eric Baker

Executives
#4

Yes. No, it's crazy to think I've been doing this for 25-plus years, Doug, so a long time ago when we started this. And so it's been interesting to sort of have seen this from when we started the secondary ticketing industry in 2000 through obviously, as you said, the growing something internationally to really seeing that now people view sort of tickets. They don't really care about primary and secondary. They just want to get tickets go live events period, sort of how that's evolved. And you look at -- at least I look at the analogy of something like YouTube that also in I think 2005, 2006, it was basically started as people with sort of their videos of their cats and user-generated content, then they had pirated content and now all content is sort of YouTube. So it's been interesting to see how the business has grown. The other thing is what's really been amazing is just the resilience and endurance of how much people love live events, which is phenomenal. That's been a constant. And I think even as the world gets more technology obsessed there's nothing like actually being live at a concert or at the Nicks opening game tomorrow night.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#5

All right. Go Nicks. All right. So you've been a public company since September of last year. How has that influenced how you view and manage the business?

Eric Baker

Executives
#6

Yes. So I think we really -- Doug, it hasn't changed in that. We try and manage the business for the long term, the whole goal of what I'm trying to do, I think of it as just generate as much cash flow per share as you can over time and do that by building sort of the best possible product and experience for consumers so that you've got an asset that will grow and revolutionize how people are thinking about tickets. All that being said, I think the big thing has just been it's important and appreciate the opportunity today to make sure that we're communicating effectively to the investment community and making sure people know what we're doing and have expectation set correctly, that's definitely important. But the fundamentals of how we're trying to build the business have not changed.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#7

Okay. Let's talk about the core resale business. North America live events growth has remained healthy. You've talked about continued strength in secondary ticketing, while the market has grown low double digit in recent years. All-in pricing had some impact in '25. We're about to lap that. How do you think about North America secondary ticketing industry growth over the next few years?

Eric Baker

Executives
#8

Yes. No, the industry has been great. So again, when you look at live events, you have this great tailwind that there's increasingly more events that people want to go to, things like the WNBA have taken off, things like you've got folks like [indiscernible] who started on YouTube. And so there's more and more content going on and the passion remains. And I think if anything, people are much more focused on the experiences rather than buying goods. And so that's why we've always seen, and again, going back 25 years. The industry has always grown in double digits consistently with the exception of COVID, which it did not [ Doug ] during COVID. But other than that, it's been very healthy and in a good place. And I think, again, it's really live events is just the engine that powers it and we don't see that changing.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#9

Okay. So maybe you can talk about all-in pricing a little bit. Maybe just explain a little bit of kind of what changed and what happened last year and how you're doing as you progress through that? And is the impact kind of mostly behind at this point?

Eric Baker

Executives
#10

Sure. So all-in pricing basically just means that the consumer sees the entire price and fees upfront. So it includes the fees and you get that rather than historically, as in a lot of industries, you'd have the fees in the back. So just to understand that we at Stubhub had actually lobbied the FTC to get to all-in pricing as a standard rule for everybody because we thought it's best for consumers. And so they -- we were publicly on record doing that. And in May of last year is when the FTC passed the all-in pricing rule. I think it was May 13. We knew when we lobbied for it that, that would have a short-term hit to what goes on because when consumers see the all-in pricing, the first time you get a conversion hit so it's a onetime hit to the industry, and we estimated that to be in the neighborhood of 10%. The reason we did it is because over the long haul, it's much better for consumers. If it's better for consumers, it's better for us just because it's a leader in the industry, if consumers are happier, they're going to be buying more. The other thing it would do, we believe, is it prevents -- if there are other people out there who are not as friendly for consumers who are trying to arbitrage it would take that away. So to your question, Doug, it was last May that, that passed. We believed in stuff that we've seen, it's around a 10% plus or minus conversion hit, and now we're lapping it. So that's now behind us or will be. It will really be behind us in Q3 and Q4. So Q3 will be the first quarter where we really have a clean pass from AIP. But obviously, getting past that should make things a little bit smoother.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#11

Okay. Let's talk about the kind of upcoming kind of slate when you think about events. What are your views on the summer concert season, the World Cup, just overall event slate this year?

Eric Baker

Executives
#12

Yes. The live event slate for this year has been very strong. So there have been a number of great concerts that have gone out that should do extremely well. So whether it's like Bruno Mars went on sale, BTS, a number of other people that we've seen. Obviously, as you mentioned, the World Cup is being played. And so the World Cup is always a great event. It's great, particularly, we have a global platform. So we're in 200 countries and territories, and we see a ton of event tourism all the time. And so the World Cup is just a phenomenal event for us in terms of not simply what it provides in terms of sales, but it's a great way for us to more global folks to become aware of our reach and how much that we can do. So we're pretty excited about all that. I think 2026 is a very solid year for Live Events.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#13

Okay. You've outgrown the market really over the last several years, you've closed to 50% share. How do you think about the right balance between continued share gains and margin expansion going forward?

Eric Baker

Executives
#14

Yes. So I think as you point out, Doug, we're the leader in our market in our space and something that we were clear about and have explained to people that the past 2 years, and we had taken possession the company back from eBay to build back market share and take that commanding leadership position, we had intentionally made a number of investments into markets share and sort of doing that. And we believe now, and as we said, going into this year, we would be harvesting on that, we're basically -- now you've got a leadership position and we also had always said, we're in a -- from our lived experience, a marketplace business that has network effects and flywheels. So when your relative market share becomes commanding and you have half the market or more, that is very beneficial. And so you should be able to grow while you inflect and increase your margins and sort of eliminate some of the trade-off. That was implicit in the guidance that we put out for this year, Doug, and sort of said we're going to grow while we inflect margins. And that, in fact, is what we demonstrated in Q1, and we have a lot of confidence in that for the year we laid out. So I think the key is just to understand [indiscernible] have a leadership position and high relative market share in this network effect business and marketplace business we're in, it is actually allows you to grow and inflect margins. And so you're not -- you don't have to have a trade-off between those 2 things. And as we believe and as I've said, we expect that to continue.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#15

Okay. Great. Let's shift gears, talk about open distribution. You've evolved your strategy from what was business development led to now more of a product-led approach. You recently announced the StubHub distribution manager tool that allows content to sell directly through your platform. Maybe you can talk about the pivot early feedback and why this is the better approach for you?

Eric Baker

Executives
#16

Sure. No, absolutely. So let me start by just making sure everyone's familiar with what is distribution fundamentally and then I'll get into how we've evolved our strategy and what we're doing to make it a reality. So open distribution is a very simple concept. It's basically the belief that if you're a content owner, you could be a theater owner, you could be an artist a team, anyone with tickets, you should sell your tickets over StubHub, just like everyone else does and use our data and distribution. And so when we go to someone who's a seller of a ticket, whether it's the Dodgers whomever we're basically saying you should sell over SubHub on a nonexclusive basis, so you can sell where you want, including StubHub, nonexclusive. And we don't charge you because we have a marketplace model the consumer is buying. You're really just like any other seller over our marketplace. And that's been extremely well received because if you go to someone say to give you more data and distribution at no cost. And if we don't perform, then that's fine. And so what we found, Doug, is we had started that model and doing things like that, where we signed the Yankees and other teams to do this and had a lot of success with them. And we'd originally -- some of those major deals where, as Doug alluded what I'd call a business development approach, which is you meet with leadership at these clubs, get them to sign up for a period of time, have a certain number of tickets and you could spill that out. Again, having this a long time, it's sort of as we looked at it, sort of said, wow, imagine if you could shift this model sort of that's more like what Yahoo! -- did to build their advertising business back in the day, they would go and they'd say, hey, we signed up Pepsi. Coca-Cola, General Mills and stack them. And while they were doing that, Google sort of perfected a platform that was very product driven. And by having a product, it sort of becomes self-serve. You don't need a contract. And obviously, the rest is history, as they got that right and Google [indiscernible] what Yahoo! had been doing. So what we saw in the past number of months was that we really had people coming to us who were saying across the spectrum of various sizes who wanted to use the open distribution model. and that rather than it being about a long conversation biz dev wise in order to have a partnership and a press release, you sort of started when the Dodgers had approached us and said, we'd like to sell directly over StubHub and we prepared, oh, maybe I've got to go out to shop as [indiscernible] and meet with ownership. And we're like no, no, no, we have some people in-house set it up, allow us to sell the tickets. And that worked very well, gives them a ton of flexibility because they can determine on a game by game, day-by-day basis, what they do or don't want to sell. So to be clear, they could stop selling tomorrow if they wanted or they could triple the amount they want to so it's all what makes sense for them, and it's been very mutually successful. And so what we realized is that you need to just eliminate the barriers and the friction for everybody else in the tail so that it should be as simple for someone if you have a theater in Amsterdam as a soccer MLS soccer team in the States or the Dodgers to sell these tickets. In order to do that, it's really about getting the product and making it very simple and getting it right. So you mentioned distribution manager where we took -- used AI to create a very easy tool for these people to be able to sell their tickets in a simple way that eliminates the friction for that. We've done integrations with their access control companies to make it easier on their dashboard to sell tickets. And as we do that, we think we position ourselves extremely well to capture this massive opportunity of $160 billion of tickets that could be open distribution tickets over StubHub. But again, this year is all about for us getting that product right and laying the groundwork for it so that afterwards, we can then get to really ramping up the volume.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#17

Okay. How do we think about just product innovation road map there? Any time lines in particular around open distribution?

Eric Baker

Executives
#18

Yes. So I think the way we've -- so I'll talk about how we think about it. We obviously -- this is already people are using this product. We have hundreds of millions of dollars that goes over the pipes. But we're trying to refine it and get it right, as I said, so that we can really push it out in a big way in the future. What we have said time line-wise is this year, we're not focused on driving more GMS goal, but rather getting the setup correct. Once we have that, we'll certainly communicate to folks about what the time line financially should look like and what the GMS expectation should be. But for this year, we wanted to make clear as we put out a guidance that sort of assumes no material growth in that area as we work on the product. And so that's factored in.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#19

Okay. How do you frame the size of the open distribution opportunity? And then how should we think about economics relative to core resale?

Eric Baker

Executives
#20

Yes. So the exciting thing about open distribution, again, it's really just more supply that can come on the marketplace, right? So just think of it as we have fans, we have professional sellers and then you've got content holders. It's really tapping into that content bucket. That content bucket, if you look at it, and I think as we've talked about in prior presentations, there's about $160 billion globally on an annual basis that flows through what we would be accessible. Even if you took out what Ticketmaster does because Ticketmaster is probably not clamoring for open distribution, although they may end up there. They probably on a paid ticket basis, I think, to slow somewhere around $35 billion to $40 billion. And if you look at everything that's touched by Live Nation, more broadly, you might total the whole thing inclusive of Ticketmaster in the $70 billion-ish range. So even if you backed all that out, it's a $90 billion opportunity even if you weren't to touch any of the other stuff, and we already are. So it's a large opportunity. It's a large ocean of tickets. It's a big TAM expansion for us. To your second question, which is, well, but how should I think about when those tickets flow? We obviously already have tickets flowing and the economics to us are the same, by which I mean, again, when we sell a ticket from a season ticketholder, a fan, power seller broker, we have our fees, our take rates. We make around 30%. That is the same if the Dodgers are selling a ticket or anyone else, which makes sense when you think about it because we're just running a marketplace. And so if you want to sell in our marketplace, that's how it works and it's nonexclusive. So you can sell simultaneously on many marketplaces, many outlets, many stores. And if we do our job and we're able to monetize the ticket for people, great. It doesn't cost you anything.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#21

Okay. Does the recent [indiscernible] Live Nation settlement help increase open distribution in your view?

Eric Baker

Executives
#22

Yes. I think -- so the first thing, let me just frame it, Doug, is that everything that I've talked about with open distribution and what has already been in motion has no reliance on the DOJ and the Ticketmaster stuff. So this is all assuming just the status quo as forever. That being said, Doug, as you point out, with Live Nation and the DOJ, Live Nation came to a settlement with the DOJ where they said, okay, we'll do A, B, C and D, and you can read sort of what they put together. But what was really heartening and positive is that it really revolves a lot around open distribution, by which I mean they said you need to be able to distribute the tickets more openly, make it easier for people to interact, have larger percentages of tickets even through their network that are open. The fact that, that is something that was front and center, I think, is only a tailwind for us. It's only helpful. Again, I caveat that with who knows what will be [indiscernible], who knows what will happen. But anything that does transpire along those lines is only to the upside for us.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#23

Okay. Let's shift gears, talk about advertising a little bit. Maybe you can just walk us through the opportunity that you see to open up the platform to advertising, what would it look like? How big of an opportunity is it for you?

Eric Baker

Executives
#24

Sure. So the advertising, we believe, is a massive opportunity. We know that there are tons of -- we have a great motivated, passionate base of folks that people want to reach in a very targeted manner. One of the most exciting opportunities that we've talked about is sponsored listings, which is that we know that it's very common on a marketplace and that sellers want to bump their listings up and make sure that they can pay to get them in front of as many people as possible, that's been proven in a lot of marketplace businesses. We have said, Doug, as you know, is that the key to us is making sure that the customer experience doesn't get compromised and that actually it's maximized and enhanced. And so what we've been very careful with is we've tested it and we started testing it in the fourth quarter is trying to get that right before we scale in a dramatic way. So what do I mean by get it right? What are we looking at there? One is, again, on customer conversion experience and what we've realized is it's no longer, especially with what you can do with AI and innovative goal of just having to harm, you can actually end up with a session that could enhance your customer conversion and experience. The second thing is getting the right sort of framework both economic and product wise. So product-wise, is now what you can do with the products even on that side, if you build for the generation of AI power products is make it simpler, eliminate the friction and roll the thing out the right way. And then what's the right economic framework to charge for people and how to collect. We want to get all of that right before scale it. So we've been testing and rolling out ads and doing all of that, getting that set up. And again, from a time line perspective, we wanted to be clear to communicate that for our guidance in 2026, it does not assume any appreciable ad contribution. Again, the idea is that we lay the groundwork and then going forward, then we can direct and indicate what that will be. But we're very excited about the opportunity. We know it exists. We know what people want it. We just want to make sure we get it right for the long term.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#25

Okay. And then what about on the kind of the second opportunity within ads, more of the brand side and bigger companies?

Eric Baker

Executives
#26

Yes. So I think what you're talking about there is there's this concept of partnerships and ad partnerships where we think about it. If you're going to a live event, there's like how do I travel to the live event. We've done some stuff that we're testing with booking. Can I get a car ride things that one might do with an Uber or someone like this or Waymo. Where am I going to eat before the game? So what's my merchandise? So those are all very natural complements. We've done a little bit of that, where we're testing it out. Again, it's about getting it very seamless in the customer experience. The big thing is oftentimes, you might have some advertisers who want to control that customer experience, and that's the fastest way to monetize immediately. That's not worth it to us. So that's why we're taking our time to get it right. But it's clearly -- [indiscernible] an area that is well [indiscernible] by other people that exists. It's about a matter of getting it right, and we're just trying to make sure that we have our ducks in a row before we put our foot on the accelerator.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#27

And I know it's still early, but any view on where ad penetration levels could go like over the long term just as a percentage of GMS?

Eric Baker

Executives
#28

Yes. No, we want to -- we're obviously very bullish on it, Doug and believe there's a big opportunity, but want to be very measured until say until we have a firm sense of what we believe [indiscernible] want to be careful about setting expectations. Again, I think what's great is, again, people can look at various benchmarks marketplace businesses and see what is possible, which is pretty exciting and make your own judgment, and we'll guide you as we know more.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#29

Okay. Great. Let's talk about regulatory a little bit. There are some efforts just across different markets to implement caps on the resale price of tickets. What are your views on these initiatives? How do you think they impact the business?

Eric Baker

Executives
#30

Yes, sure. So I think on the price caps, and this is -- let me back sort of first set the stage. And I think, Doug, the stuff [indiscernible] in the news and what people talk about these days and when are looking at it is really about -- you have these very few high-end concerts every year, which would be like a Taylor Swift type of concert. And people are like, oh, my goodness, we don't want someone coming in a bad actor hovering up bunch of tickets and then selling them at huge markups. And that's really what dominates the discussion. So one way people have looked at stuff is they'll talk about, well, we should have price cap. So I'll talk about that. The first thing is, obviously, we work for fans, consumers like that's not just happy talk like that's our business, like they have to come back and be happier else, we don't have the business. So we always want what's best for the fan and consumer, and I believe that legislators and regulators basically, they're just trying to make events more accessible on a fair basis for people and make sure things work [indiscernible] sort of aligned. So we have the same goal. The key is like educating people about how do you achieve that. So when we've looked at what we've seen in the few instances where price caps have been placed out there, they don't work in jurisdictions. What happens? What happens is you drive a black market, which raises the prices in the black market and the fraud grows up -- goes up tremendously. So reports have shown from economists even 4x as much fraud. So that doesn't work. The other issue is that it's very hard to even enforce these types of things because you increasingly have the concept of what the face value of the ticket is doesn't make much sense because they're dynamically pricing in the primary market, and there's no longer a face value of a ticket. So for all those reasons, it's just not practical. It doesn't work has been rolled back in many places. And what I would say is you can even look at the U.K., I think it was about 5 months ago, Doug or 6, there was a public announcement it was October, and it said, a government official, had said they're going to recommend a price cap in the U.K. And the first thing was misunderstood here that people thought there already was a price cap, which there wasn't. It's a process, legislative process. So they have to take it to something called the King speech that happens every spring, propose it and then it takes another year to go through Parliament if it goes through, and then it takes more time to activate. And we said at the time, look, this is a complicated issue. We're educating them. It's not so simple. And in fact, the King speech was just last week, and it was not in the King speech. So they're not moving forward at this time with that, they'll have to see forward again. And again, I think that's because as they get more educated about it, they realize it's probably not doing what they'd hoped it would do. The last thing I'd just say about price caps and since it's been helpful, Doug, and we mentioned this on one of our earnings calls, for investors is to say, okay, let's just back up and sometimes people said, well, how do I boundary, how much of your business is this? What if the intergalactic court just said, price caps everywhere like this and it just happened. And we try and explain to people, look, it's really just a subsegment of our business. So we looked -- and I think we explained if you took high-end concert tickets, for the high-end concerts that are bought by these professional sellers that are talking about and at the relevant price caps, you're talking around 10% of our GMS. That's it. And again, that's if across all 200 jurisdictions and more, you got a problem. So it is containable. It's a discrete issue, which, as I say, we believe, is not going to occur. But even if you disagree, you can boundary the impact to what I said.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#31

Okay. Great. Let's shift gears, talk about AI. So the potential for marketplace disintermediation in an agentic world obviously remains top of mind for investors. How do you think about that AI threat and opportunity for StubHub?

Eric Baker

Executives
#32

Sure. So AI is obviously a huge disruptive technology across the board. A lot of exciting things going on. No one knows exactly how everything will play out. So we take it very seriously. That being said, we think we're positioned for this to be a great tailwind for us and very positively positioned. So why do we think. First of all, we're dealing with live events in a real-world product. So we run a 2-sided marketplace with a lot of complexity, where at the end of the day, you're going to the Red Sox game, where you're going to a concert what-not. So we think that's a good place to be. It's not like we're not selling software, we're not selling content that you can replicate. So we think that's great. That also means that the supply chain, everything from payments to fraud, to gathering all our district suppliers, it's not the type of thing that is in the sweet spot for what AI is trying to do. Where we see the upside is that there's a tremendous ability to use this technology to revolutionize in a positive way, the experience for consumers. So we believe that you have an agentic experience through StubHub, where basically it will say, hey, Doug, we know you, you love Michigan, here's where you like to sit. This is what you're interested in. And it can present options for you and the experience of buying tickets will look completely different and whether you're doing that through a voice modality or whatever you may be doing. So we think that's very exciting. Obviously, as many people have said, you can then take the technology to eliminate friction through the rest of the chain and do that in a very cost-effective manner. So you can take cost out while you're improving your product and you are actually improving the revenue component. So you're making more money with a better product experience at lower cost. And we believe the key is to be a leader in a vertical like ours. So if you're the leader in the vertical marketplace like this that's well situated, you can really get a huge data advantage that we have. And that data advantage that we've talked about before we think, becomes even more insurmountable and powerful. So that's a long way of saying a lot of exciting things. We have done integrations with Claude and with ChatGPT. One thing to comment there because people often are interested. Today, that's de minimis. Google Search, Facebook, those are as strong as ever, going great. But we want to make sure we are wherever the consumers are going to go. And so we want to be on the cutting edge of that. So it's very exciting to be integrated with these partners, and we'll see how it plays out, but it's exciting times.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#33

Okay. And anything to call out just in terms of kind of internal product development and increased efficiency?

Eric Baker

Executives
#34

Yes. I think there's 2 things I'd say because I think a lot of people understand and it's across the board that most companies, obviously, can be more efficient. Your people are more efficient. You can start taking back-office costs out, and that's all exciting in the future. Two things I think are underappreciated. One is the speed to ship. So we're a product organization and a product technology organization. So the faster we can ship and innovate product is just hugely -- that's hugely beneficial thing for us. And what you can do now is really increase that speed in ways that you [indiscernible] The second is, I think the ability that we have now to take our data analytics and really get much or insights much more quickly and much more [indiscernible]. So in other words, imagine we've always prided ourselves on using our data to test to think about things, what you can do now is really amazing. You have that data almost instantaneously, the ability to analyze the data so quickly to then make better decisions on a quicker basis. So if you can make better decisions on a quicker basis and you can, therefore, ship your product faster and that compounds. I think that's going to create, again, a scenario where when you're the leader, as we talked about or any leader in any space and you've got a data flywheel. That benefit is just going to compound and sort of create an even more yawning gap between the winners and people who are not the winners.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#35

Okay. In terms of just thinking about kind of '26 guidance and financials, you've guided to about 9% GMS growth at the midpoint for this year. That implies accelerating to double-digit growth in the back half. How do you think about shape of the year? I guess what gives you the confidence in that back half growth, recognizing you'll lap all-in pricing?

Eric Baker

Executives
#36

Yes. No, absolutely. As you pointed out, Doug, our guidance is 8% to 10% growth of GMS and $400 million to $420 million on the EBITDA line. And we're very -- we just reiterated our confidence in that guidance on our last call, which we're very excited about, again, with the health of everything going on, the inflection and the growth. I think in terms of the shaping clearly, when we look and we look at it annually, but as I think you alluded, the back half of the year typically is where there's a lot of stuff going on. There's a great calendar this year. There's a lot of positive benefits from -- we believe, from lapping all in pricing. So we're very confident in our guidance and stand behind it.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#37

Okay. And anything to call out just in terms of how we should think about contribution from the World Cup?

Eric Baker

Executives
#38

World Cup, it's a great event. I think, obviously, what I would say is as we've always said, and I think as we said on our call, it's like a Tier 1 event, the way that we've thought about it. That's like a top concert something like that. I will say sometimes people are like, well, isn't it like Taylor Swift, I just would reiterate there's only one Taylor Swift. So I don't think that's anticipated. We'll let you know if it turns out that that's different. But it's a great event, and it's performing exactly as we anticipated up till now. But that's factored into the guidance we just talked about and how we think about the year. We'll obviously know more after it really goes through June and July are the key months where the tournament is going on. And as we know more, and that closes out, we'll certainly inform you about it. But it's tracking as we would expect, is a very strong event as we sit here today.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#39

Okay. Your guidance also suggests margins will expand pretty meaningfully this year. Maybe you can just help us directionally kind of bridge that expansion across take rate normalization, improve marketing efficiency, operating leverage, just anything else we should be thinking about?

Eric Baker

Executives
#40

Yes, sure. So as you point out, and we mentioned before, implicit in the guidance we gave is obviously that will grow and will reflect margins, which started happening sort of in Q1, and we think it will continue. So to your point, as we laid out, why does that happen when you get, again, scale leadership in a business like this. And I think, Doug, you alluded to a number of the points that contribute to that. One is that you just get obviously, operating leverage as you get bigger. The second is that as you have leadership in the market, you're just more efficient naturally, we've found that you do because what's happening is we've gone into an upward trajectory, other people go into more of a downward spiral, right, in terms of how much liquidity they have and how efficient they can be. So you end up being more efficient through the channels that you market through. You get the compound effects through your repeat usage and your direct traffic. All of those things are extremely positive. And then, Doug, I think as we also had mentioned and you mentioned here, you get normalization of the take rates, which will approach 20%, which is normal course for us as opposed to what in the past, in the last 2 years, we were in that mode of sort of solidifying market position. So all those things come together to end up with why we believe we will report those numbers that we talked about, which will demonstrate that we've been able to grow while inflecting margins. And hopefully, again, I would just say because it's important that we do that to demonstrate that. We've lived that experience before. Obviously, there are folks who may believe or could say, I don't know, you're in a commodity business. And in the commodity business, if you're not a network effect marketplace business, you only have price and advertising. And in those businesses, you either lower your prices or you spend more on advertising to grow. That's not the business that we're in. And so that's why we look forward to posting those numbers and demonstrating confirmation of that, that we will be able to grow while we inflect our margins.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#41

Okay. Great. So just wrapping up, what are you most excited about? Is there anything you think is misunderstood about the company or its positioning in the industry?

Eric Baker

Executives
#42

Yes. No. Obviously, as you can tell very excited about, I mean, thank God I'm in the live events business that is a great business to be in. I looked into being in live events, people love sports, they love concerts. It's more and more global. So that's great and we have leadership in our marketplace and so many TAM expansion cases. I think in terms of misunderstood, it's on us to communicate better. I think, Doug, I appreciate the opportunity to address some of those things I think like we talked about, some of the regulatory stuff, not understood what's actually going on. We brought up like the ad people who think, oh, in the U.K., you're already outlawed or the exposure of price caps. And so hopefully trying to make sure people understand that. And also people just understanding the dynamic of the marketplace business with the leadership position. I think there are people, again, who I don't think fully appreciate how our business works and the way it does. But that's why it's important that we do what we say we're going to do and grow and [indiscernible] margins and demonstrate it. So I appreciate the time and appreciate the interest.

Douglas Anmuth

Analysts
#43

All right. We're going to leave it there. Thank you, Eric.

Eric Baker

Executives
#44

Thank you.

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