Swedbank AB (publ) (SWEDA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and a warm welcome to Swedbank's Investor Day 2025. My name is Jens Henriksson, and I'm the President and CEO of Swedbank. Today and for the next few hours, we will present our plan, how we will continue to deliver a sustainable return on equity of at least 15% by growing our income, keeping strong cost discipline and asset quality while not holding more capital than necessary. Welcome to Swedbank 15/27. [Presentation]

Let me now introduce today's host, Magnus Alvesson, who is the acting Head of Investor Relations.

Thank you, Jens. Once again, a warm welcome to everyone joining us today for Swedbank's Investor Day 2025. Let's begin by outlining the agenda. Jens will kick off by reflecting on Swedbank's key milestones since our last Investor Day 2022. He will then lay out the path forward for Swedbank through to 2027. Anna-Karin Laurell, Head of Swedish Banking; and Malin Lilliecrona, Head of Premium and Private Banking, will share the business priorities for our private segments in Sweden. After a short break, Bo Bengtsson, Head of Corporates and Institutions, will guide us through our corporate priorities in the Nordic countries. Olof Sundblad, Head of Baltic Banking, will address our strategies for both the private and the corporate segments in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Then our CFO, Jon Lidefelt, will present the detailed financial plan for Swedbank for the next 2.5 years. His presentation will cover our overall return on equity target, but also plans for income generation, cost management and capital. We will then invite analysts and investors to join a Q&A session. You can ask questions via chat video in Swedish or in English. We anticipate to finish around 12:00. The presentation is available for download on our website. For media representatives attending today's call, you will have an opportunity to ask questions during prebooked one-on-one interviews starting at 1:00. Now Jens, take it away.

Swedbank is a full-service bank. We are the leading bank for retail and corporate customers in our 4 home markets: Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. We serve more than 7 million private customers and over 0.5 million corporate clients. 60% of our income comes from private customers and 40% from our corporate customers. We bank close to half of the population across our 4 home markets. And we interact with our customers more than 4,000 times every single minute, day and night, and our customers' needs guide us every day. Swedbank is a bank firmly rooted in the savings bank's tradition with deep expertise, local presence and strategic partnerships. In Sweden, we have seen a positive trend in customer satisfaction during recent years, but there is still a lot to do. In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, we have been the most loved brand for 6 consecutive years. Strategic partnerships are an important part of our business model in Sweden with more than 50 local savings banks and in Norway with Sparebanken Sør Norge, in Finland with AXA Bank, and in Denmark with Swedbank, all serving the same purpose, to be there for our customers. Swedbank is a systemic and stable bank, critical to the customers and businesses that we serve and to the societies we operate within. Our strategic direction defines who we are and why we exist. Our vision is a financially sound and sustainable society, and our purpose is to empower the many people and businesses to create a better future. Guided by our values of being open, simple and caring, our customer promise is to make our customers' financial life easier. Our foundation is our license to operate. Together, we create an efficient, profitable and compliant bank and financial services platform built on standardized, scalable and stable infrastructure. And we strive to be an attractive workplace shaped by a culture of inclusion and accountability. Our goal is to build long-term shareholder value and our customers' future is our focus. When we met at our Investor Day in 2022, we presented Swedbank 15/25. It was a road map to deliver a 15% return on equity, supported by a cost-to-income ratio of 0.4%, a CET1 buffer of 200 basis points and income growing faster than costs by 3 percentage points per year on average. The plan had 4 clear business priorities. First, leverage our proven business model and pricing strategy; second, grow our share of wallet with existing customers; third, grow our business in prioritized segments; and finally, to improve our availability and operational excellence. It was a bold plan, and I'm proud to say we have delivered. The outcome of Swedbank 15/25 is the result of the hard work and dedication of everyone in Swedbank. By focusing on our business priorities, guided by our strategic direction and executing on our plans, we have achieved what we set out to do. Last year, we had a return on equity of 17.1%. Our cost-to-income ratio came in at 0.34%, reflecting strong operational efficiency and a focused approach to delivering customer value while maintaining strict cost control. While income did very much benefit from interest rate tailwinds, Swedbank's discipline in upholding margins, keeping costs under control, preserving high asset quality and leveraging our proven business model has enabled best-in-class financial performance. By being consistently profitable, we increase our ability to support our customers, contribute to financial stability and distribute dividends to our shareholders, that then come back to our society and thus support our long-term vision of a financially sound and sustainable society. Our CET1 capital buffer landed at 460 basis points, which is more than twice the level we initially planned. This is due to the long-running U.S. investigations not yet being concluded. As a result, we have not been able to distribute excess capital as originally intended. But earlier this year, we raised our dividend policy to between 60% and 70%, and we have no intention to hold more capital than necessary. During the last years, we've made major strategic investments in a new omnichannel communication platform, a comprehensive end-to-end lending process and an updated savings and advisory platform, and we also invested in upgrading our app and in IRB models. These are no quick wins. They are foundational and ongoing investments that we continue to prioritize, and they are critical to improving customer experience and creating long-term value. The delivery was made possible by the concrete steps we've taken over the past 6 years to strengthen the bank's foundation. We have enhanced internal controls, strengthened our corporate governance and improved risk management. We've made significant investments in data management, technology, cybersecurity and AI capabilities, which have strengthened our IT infrastructure and increased our resilience. We also set business targets for Swedbank 15/25. Most are progressing according to plan, while others need more effort. We now conclude the 15/25 plan and set our sights on 2027. We live in uncertain times, geopolitically, economically and from the challenges of climate change. And these uncertainties have profound effects on businesses, consumers and societies at large. Geopolitical tensions are contributing to a level of global uncertainty we have not experienced in decades. Swedbank is a stable partner, and we play a role in strengthening resilience by supporting defense-related financing and contributing to the long-term societal preparedness. The global economy is at a critical juncture, also marked by uncertainty. Earlier this year, the IMF presented not 1, but 3 scenarios for the global economy, each pointing to lower global growth than previously forecasted in both 2025 and 2026. Swedbank is a trusted adviser. And by staying close to our customers, we help them navigate through the complexity and make informed decisions. Climate change is perhaps the biggest challenge of them all, reshaping economies, accelerating the need for energy transition while challenging long-held assumptions about risk and resilience. It affects everyone. Swedbank plays also here an important role by guiding our customers through this transition, supporting sustainable choices and influencing what and how we finance. By working closely with our customers, we help accelerate their transition, while contributing to long-term sustainability. In this environment, Swedbank's 4 home markets stand out. With strong public finances, low levels of government debt, resilient households, innovative companies and a profitable banking sector, our region remains among the best prepared for the future. Looking ahead, growth in our 4 home markets is expected to outpace both the Eurozone and the U.S. in both 2025 and 2026, supported by stabilizing interest rates and improved household spending. The banking sector comes with its own set of dynamics. Technological advancements are reshaping customer expectations, driving growth and transforming the competitive landscape and introducing new risks. Customers today expect simplicity, speed and personalization. Through our data-driven models, we provide personalized experiences and offer tailored products and services without losing the human touch. Competition has increased with niche players and monoliners. Our advantage is that we are a full-service bank. Our broad offering creates a seamless customer experience and offers a one-stop shop for a wide range of financial needs. We also see increasing demand for financing in sectors like renewable energy, infrastructure and technology, and we are committed to helping them with our deep expertise and strong capital position. It is in time like this that being a profitable bank matters the most. Profitability means resilience and long-term stability. And that is why our ambition stands and why we now are setting our sights on continuing this trajectory. We have delivered on the plan we committed to. And now we are moving forward with a new plan, and it is designed to unlock the potential of our business in 3 main areas. First, we will strengthen our customer interactions. By leveraging customer insights and data-driven models, we will provide more personalized services and ensure availability across channels. And our investments continue to focus on improving customer experience. Second, we will grow volumes by leveraging our strong customer relationships and capitalizing opportunities across our markets. Although the demand outlook remains uncertain in the near term, Swedbank is ready to capture higher volumes. We will continue to refine our offering in daily banking and in asset management, and this provides a solid foundation for volume growth with a focus on strict credit origination standards and promoting long-term savings. Our plan is to maintain or grow market shares across our main products. Third, we will increase efficiency. New tools and technologies, including AI and GenAI, will simplify our processes and free up time for deeper customer engagement. And we will maintain a disciplined cost approach and increase scale, while keeping quality high. We've had an external hiring freeze for more than a year while making quite a few business-critical exemptions. In the near term, we expect to end the hiring freeze, but we will remain restrictive in new hiring. Efficiency is key to profitability, and it is a core pillar of our plan moving forward. Through all of this, we remain committed to high credit quality and capital efficiency by reducing our excess capital. Swedbank 15/27 is our plan to continue delivering a sustainable return on equity of at least 15%, designed to create long-term value for our customers, our shareholders and society as a whole. We are well positioned for continued and sustainable growth and profitability. It is because of our proven business model, our clear business priorities and our strong foundation. We are confident in our ability to achieve our goals. We know where we're going, and we know how to get there. Back to you, Magnus.

Thank you, Jens. Joining us now are our business leaders who are responsible for driving business and monitoring or managing customer relationships. We will start with Anna-Karin Laurell and Malin Lilliecrona. Anna-Karin will, among other things, talk about how she views the importance of high-quality customer interaction. Anna-Karin, please go ahead.

Thank you. Well, let me take a moment to put Swedish Banking in the context of business growth and long-term profitability. Swedbank has leading market shares in mortgages, deposits and mutual funds in the private segments. And in terms of financials, we generate 40% of the group's profits and almost half of the loans. We interact with our customers mainly through our app, and this is complemented by personal advisory meetings that take place both remotely and across our 142 business branch offices, which remain a key part of our business. Swedbank has made several major strategic investments in technology since 2022. Since joining the bank in 2024, I worked together with my team to take a close look to Swedish Banking, making sure we are in the best position to fully realize the potential of all these investments. Availability is one of our main focus areas, and we have made changes in our assisted channels. In short, we have introduced new ways of working, formed a national workforce and reviewed the branch strategy. These changes are already showing results. Compared to 2024, we have doubled our availability and, at the same time, decreased customer-facing staff with 20%. We have also doubled the number of advisory meetings per employee. Our target is that 80% of the calls should be answered within 3 minutes. We are doing this by optimizing how our customer-facing staff use their time. We also understood that the number of assisted service interactions that Swedish Banking handles every year is unnecessarily high. This is an opportunity for improvement and will be leveraged through more education, changes to our offerings and continued development towards more automation and AI solutions. This enables more self-service and more automated services. As a result of this, we are confident that assisted service interactions can be decreased, and we have set the target to reduce them by half by 2027. The key to achieving the targets is our omnichannel transformation, and we now have the technology foundation in place to build a channel experience that is seamless for our customers. That results in an efficient use of time for our customer-facing staff. But we will not only increase availability, we will also grow our business. To grow volumes, we will leverage the scale benefits in our business to a much greater degree than has been possible before. This will allow us to grow in all our main product areas, mortgages, deposits, mutual funds and insurance. And as we improve availability and reduce the need for assisted service, we free up time for our customer-facing staff to focus on what matters the most, and that is advising customers and helping them to plan for their future. As a full-service bank, this could mean helping customers to start a savings habit with an appropriate investment allocation, or making sure that they have the right life or home insurance in place. Thanks to the investments we mentioned earlier, we now have the technical capabilities to offer all our customers personalized, proactive advice, fully designed to meet their individual financial needs. These offers are made possible by our automated data-driven model and are delivered directly to customers through our digital channels. Swedbank has almost 4 billion private customers in Sweden. Last year, we had assisted advisory meetings with less than 10% of them. With our automated data-driven model, we can reach everyone with relevant, tailored advice based on their unique financial situation. This decreases cost to serve and makes previously unprofitable sales profitable. And we have already started. We are generating more and more sales that comes from our automated offers and advice through our app, helping our customers make better financial decisions, while also improving efficiency and profitability. To be successful in delivering growth, we will continue to develop our products and services. Just recently, we launched a new offering for young adults turning 18. We call it [Foreign Language], Finally 18. The offering includes all standard products with added incentives to make customers stay with us. Our growth plan builds on the strength of our large customer base. We have identified several hundred thousands of customers with products from other providers. This gives us a significant opportunity to serve these customers better without competing more on price than we do today. All in all, Swedish Banking's sales capacity is increasing. The number of digital sales is targeted to increase by 50% in 2027, keeping in mind that half of our sales are already digital. We aim to maintain or grow market shares in mortgages and deposits, and we aim to increase market shares in mutual funds and insurance. Last, we are increasing efficiency by more changes of ways of working and continued automation, including AI solutions. We have started to use AI agents that both guides and perform basic tasks for our customers. In 2025, we will start using an AI agent to help advisers with administrative work after phone calls. This will reduce admin time and increase quality as well as enabling better follow-up of agreed actions and proactivity towards our customers. Automation and AI add a new lever in productivity that we can believe can act as a complement in areas I've just mentioned and several others. While we have delivered on a large part of our strategic investments, there is still work to be done. We will continue to improve processes and to close the digital gaps. To conclude, Swedish Banking will strengthen customer interactions by increased availability. We will drive business growth with an even sharper focus on sales, enabled by technology and data-driven productivity. At the same time, we will continue to make processes more efficient. We will measure our success through: first, increased availability; second, reduced number of assisted service interactions; third, increased number of digital sales; and finally, maintained or increased market shares for all product lines. Together, these efforts mark an ambitious next phase for Swedish Banking and represent a key contribution to Swedbank 15/27. And now Malin Lilliecrona will continue to describe the service model for our private customers in the business area, Premium and Private banking.

Thanks, Anna-Karin, and thank you for taking care of Premium and Private Banking customers when they call into the contact center or visit a branch office spontaneously.

You're welcome.

And actually, in practice, our teams take care of the Swedish private business together.

Together.

At our previous Investor Day, we said that we would do more business with our affluent customers in Sweden, prioritize customers with larger wealth, higher service expectations and more advanced advisory needs. To deliver on that ambition, we created a new business area, Premium and Private Banking with exactly that purpose. We have now built our organization and are ready to accelerate our profitable growth journey with the customers' future in focus. Today, Premium and Private Banking generates 5% of Swedbank's total profits, and there is significant potential to grow. In Swedbank, only 1 out of 6 of what we define as affluent customers are connected to Premium and Private Banking today. Furthermore, the Swedish wealth market is expected to grow by over 20% by 2028. Today, I will outline how we will double our customer base, strengthen our customer relationships and contribute to Swedbank's 15/27 plan. But first, let me introduce you to how we serve our customers. We have strong local presence with advisers in 90 branches. To solve complex needs, we use specialist skills nationally. One of our competitive edges is to combine Swedbank's expertise as a full-service bank with strong anchoring in the local society. We target customers with at least SEK 1 million in investable assets, who want a named adviser and ongoing financial planning and advice. We offer 2 different concepts, premium and the more advanced private banking solution. Both are available at a fee. We intend to serve the cluster. That means that the advisers not only serve the customers, but also their families and their companies. About 15% of Premium and Private Banking customers are business owners or entrepreneurs, and they expect Swedbank to manage their financials as one entity. We support our customers through all life events, especially generational shifts, to capture the wealth transfer. We offer sustainable solutions. And by that, we mean responsible investments and that our recommendations are suitable for the long term. We also advise corporate customers, helping them to manage excess liquidity and set up pension plans. Premium and Private Banking has an important task together with Boost team in Corporates and Institutions to tie customers closer to Swedbank by combining the private and the corporate relationship. Affluent customers have high expectations. Among Swedbank's affluent customers who are not connected to Premium and Private Banking, 80% want more productivity, as does 1/3 of the concept customers, and this is a clear opportunity for cross sales. We will improve the customer experience in 4 ways. First, better usage of data. Swedbank has invested heavily in data and analytics. This helps us to understand our customers better, identify needs, tailor solutions and communicate proactively, whether it's a tactical investment proposal during equity market turbulence or legal guidance on how to construct a shareholder agreement. Second, optimized services and offerings. Swedbank's service model is mobile first. Many Premium and Private Banking customers check in on their investments regularly and prefer to discuss with their adviser online. However, physical strategy meeting, interpersonal relationships and networking remain vital. Therefore, we will fine-tune a hybrid service model combining digital and physical channels. Customers will also get access to a broader offering. Our customers have more exposure to pensions and investments. Therefore, we will launch a more advanced asset allocation model and performance reporting. Third, stronger profiling. As Anna-Karin said, Swedbank is a leading bank in mortgages. We will strengthen Swedbank's profile in the savings area. Marketing premium and private banking externally will increase awareness of Swedbank's capabilities and a tailored look and feel across channels, specifically designed for Premium and Private Banking preferences will increase the relevance for existing customers. Fourth, expanded access to expertise. Our customers value expertise. It's one of the top 3 value-adding components, and we will expand into pension withdrawal planning. And as a full-service bank, Swedbank already has a lot of expertise. Our task is to bring the relevant insight to each. Swedbank's large customer base is our greatest asset, an asset that we can activate. Only 15% of Swedbank's affluent customers have Premium or Private Banking concept today. Expanding that share is key. It gives customers faster and more personal service, a broader offering, ongoing advice on both assets and liabilities, and individual access to specialists. Our advisers build strong relationships. The result is that Premium and Private Banking customers use 50% more products. They are also more satisfied, scoring 10 points higher on CSI, leading to higher lifetime value. The service model is more resource-intensive, but it also generates more income. In fact, twice as high savings and investment income compared to non-concept affluent customers in Swedbank. Last year, we welcomed 10,000 new customers to Premium and Private Banking. Today, we have about 75,000 concept customers. We have set an ambitious goal to double this figure by 2027, 80% through internal acquisition and 20% through external acquisition. On top of this, we will grow income per customer, mainly by offering more advanced financial planning, allowing customers to better simulate and plan for the future, providing us with opportunities to cross-sell. The new savings and advisory platform will give us the ability to provide discretionary portfolio management to more customers. By 2027, we estimate that 25% of our customers will have this personalized convenient solution. That figure is 5% today. The savings and advisory platform will also open up new income opportunities, more advanced equity offering and a broader fund universe. And finally, we will develop Swedbank's strategic partnership with Folksam, expanding from P&C insurance into traditional life insurance. These additions will make us even more relevant to our customers and ensure Swedbank's position as their main provider. Efficiency is key to profitability. We aim to serve more customers per adviser, and there are 3 elements to this. First, we will leverage Swedbank's technical platforms. Our new savings and advisory platform will become fully operational in 2026, reducing administration in investment advice, and the lending platform will bring similar benefits. Second, we will improve processes by streamlining our ways of working using AI to prepare for meetings and increasing the number of online customer meetings, boosting both productivity and accessibility. Third, updated products and services will make us more efficient. Self-service functionality in the app reduces workload in the front line. And the new discretionary solution also means that advisers no longer need to manage these individual portfolios actively. Together, these changes will allow each adviser to handle 50% more customers by the end of 2027. To conclude, my team is fully committed to grow the Premium and Private Banking business. The external market is growing, and we have a large opportunity in Swedbank's existing customer base. In cooperation with Swedish Banking and Corporates and Institutions, and with support from the rest of the bank, we will deliver more tailored and personal customer experiences, grow income through concept penetration and cross-sales, and increase operational efficiency to serve more customers. And therefore, our key 2027 targets are to connect 25% of our customers to a discretionary solution, enable each adviser to serve 50% more customers, and to double the concept customer base. Premium and Private Banking's main contribution to Swedbank's 15/27 plan is NCI heavy and capital-light growth, powered by personalized advice and a stronger connection across the private and the corporate business. That is the essence of our profitable growth journey for the upcoming years with the customers' future in focus. Now over to you, Magnus.

Thank you, Malin. We will now take a short break. See you back here in 10 minutes. [Break]

Welcome back. It is now time for Bo Bengtsson, Olof Sundblad, and then Jon Lidefelt. Bo will go into the details of our corporate strategy, but will also talk about our extensive external partnerships. Bo, please go ahead.

Thank you, Magnus. Now to my favorite topic, our corporate business. The corporate business is a cornerstone for Swedbank. Corporates and Institutions contributes with approximately 1/4 of the group's total income and profit. More than 30% of this comes from ancillary income and an important part of our total income comes from our branches in Norway and Finland. In Sweden, Swedbank has a market share of 15% in corporate lending and 14% in deposits. Our Corporates and Institutions business has deep roots in society. We have a strong presence throughout Sweden. We have our strongest footprint in small and midsized corporates. We are strong and relevant across all segments. And our goal is to follow our customers as they grow. We have a profitable and competitive institutional business with relationships with key Swedish institutions, authorities, municipalities and organizations. We are probably the most important corporate bank for Swedish society. I want to highlight 3 areas where we stand out. First, real estate. Our real estate business has leading client satisfaction and market share for several years. This is built on an outstanding client and product organization. Second, sustainability. We provide guidance and help accelerate our customers' energy transition. These include high footprint sectors as real estate and forest and agriculture. In 2024, we grew sustainability finance volumes by 70%. The third is our broad presence throughout Sweden. We are market leaders for micro to SME companies and are strong partners for our large corporates. Our corporate business is strong, and we believe it can be further leveraged. In fact, we have already started by adjusting our organization to strengthening our local presence and the efforts to align our ways of working to ensure an even better customer experience. Swedbank's corporate business has a broad presence in Swedish market, and we estimate that we have business relationships with at least 1/3 of all corporate customers -- corporates in Sweden. We have around 500 client executives across corporate, real estate and institutional banking. And together with saving banks, we have a business community representative in each and every municipality in Sweden. This secures knowledge and close relationships throughout the country. Our service models combine close customer relationships with centralized specialist knowledge. It is key in maintaining and winning customers. Our specialists provide competence across products, sectors, sustainability advisory and advisory related to private banking for Malin's team. Our offering is enhanced by partnerships. We broaden our geographical reach in the Nordics and by that, are able to offer more products and tailored services to our customers. The longest-standing and most important partnership is with the Swedish saving banks. Through this partnership, Swedbank is the natural bank of choice for a corporate customer that outgrows a saving bank's balance sheet. In early March this year, we announced that we, together with the savings banks group in Norway, Sparebanken 1, are joining forces to build a leading Nordic investment bank. This will further strengthen our offering. The new organization will be operational later this year, and we hold 20% ownership in the business. So far in 2025, we have seen good momentum in corporate lending. Improved prospecting also led to an increase of around 80% in new SME and mid-corp customers in 2024 compared to 2023. By using best practice throughout the organization, the number of client meetings have increased. Client activity has been rising since 2024. And between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, client meetings have increased by more than 20%. The correlation between client activity and revenue is clear. After more than 30 years of experience in banking corporates, I can personally attest to this. And going forward, we will further increase client activity by harmonizing our ways of working. This will benefit our business in the short term and enable us to grow market share and profit in the long term. Until 2020, Swedbank and the saving banks together held the position as the largest Swedish corporate lender. Today, we are second largest. And our long-term goal is to reclaim the top position. This means we will grow Swedbank's market share by around 1.5 percentage points. We will increase our investments in corporate and institutional offering, and we will continue to improve key processes. These are long-term investments, many showing results towards the end of 2027 or beyond. We seek a clear potential to grow profitability by increasing our share of wallet. We have more work to do here, especially in mid-corp and large corporates, where our share of wallet is lower than in other segments. Our daily banking offering, including cash management and payment is central to our customer. It builds a daily relationship, and it's a major source of ancillary income and is an important component for us to improve. We will also improve our digital channels and thereby increase the degree of self-service, especially for smaller customers, corporate customers. Prospecting customers is relying more and more on data and analytics, especially when it comes to the smaller corporates, given the volumes there. We see many potential use cases for AI tools in our business. One important application being the lending process where we expect to see significant improvements. We are committed to meeting our customers that they want to meet us. And now we cover a vast majority of ERP systems used by our customers, creating an ecosystem benefiting both us and our customers. To conclude, we will grow corporate and institutional business by being close to our customers, combining our local presence with available expertise from national and regional hubs. We will invest in corporate offering to increase share of wallet and client satisfaction. We focus on increased client activity measured as number of client meetings. We will increase customer satisfaction in our corporate business. There, our ambition is to advance in rankings for real estate and institutional in Prospera service. We aim to grow our corporate lending market share with around 1.5 percentage points and become the largest corporate bank in Sweden together with the saving banks. These targets will contribute to achieve the goals for 15/27. And now I leave the floor to Olof Sundblad, who has the pleasure to talk about both corporate and private.

Thank you, Bo. Thank you. Today, I will give you an overview of the ambitions and priorities of Swedbank's businesses in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as give you an overview of where we stand today. Swedbank is the leading bank across our region, both on the retail and on the private side with an exceptionally strong position across key products, customer segments and geographies. For the private customers, we are a mobile-first bank complemented by strong human-assisted channels. We have some 75% of our customers using our mobile app, and we see continuous increase in mobile sales. For corporate customers, our strength is broad-based with good digital tools and a strong product offering, complemented by deep industry knowledge among our corporate advisers. We are very proud to be recognized as the most loved brand across all industries in the Baltic countries for the sixth consecutive year in a row. In addition, several other awards were received in 2024, such as the most competitive service company in Estonia, the highest sustainability index in Latvia, and leader in financial services in Lithuania. On the private side, we have a very high customer satisfaction, which helps explain why we have 3.5 million customers out of a total population of some 6 million people across the Baltic states. We are creating an ecosystem with products and services for financing, investments, daily banking and insurance. This drives satisfaction, leads to increased interactions and, of course, sells products. Let me give you an example here. We have a service that allows children to send money requests to their parents using our mobile app, and then the parents can answer it in the mobile app. This is something that incentivizes the whole family to use Swedbank for the daily banking need. It also drives usage of the mobile app. And of course, it brings a lot of customer satisfaction to the children at least. Let me give you another example. We have recently launched a functionality, which we call Micro Invest. This allows our customers to round off their purchases and use the proceeds to buy mutual funds. This is a simple way to introduce regular savings to our customers that are sometimes not used to saving in funds. It makes it very easy. Once these customers have their savings with us, it also incentivizes them to use our app to go in and look at the performance of the funds. And of course, over time, we hope that it will lead to them increasing their monthly savings contribution. Going forward, we are planning to develop our products and services as well as tailor our distribution model. For instance, we are currently customizing the experiences and sales journeys of our affluent customers as they often have more complex needs. Here, we are very much looking at what Malin and her team are doing in Sweden, as it provides a great source of inspiration for us. Over the past 5 years, we have maintained our market shares in mortgage lending and grown volumes with close to 40%. For us, there are some important tailwinds in the mortgage market. Firstly, household debt is low and the share of homes financed with mortgages is well below EU average despite homeownership being high. Second, there is a continuous need for modernization or replacement of legacy apartments built in the 50s, 60s and 70s. And third, we continue to see real wage growth in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as these economies converge with the rest of the EU. Similarly, there's a strong lending growth potential for leasing and consumer finance in the Baltic countries. Over the past 5 years, this portfolio has grown some 50%. Although much smaller than the mortgage portfolio in terms of volume, it contributes close to 60% of the NII of the mortgage portfolio. To capture these opportunities, our target is to grow lending volumes and maintain our market shares, both on mortgage lending as well as in other private lending. Apart from maintaining our market share in private lending, we see the possibility for capital-light growth in ancillary products such as P&C insurance, life insurance as well as asset management. Now let's start with the insurance. We have achieved remarkable growth for both P&C insurance and life insurance over the past years, with total gross written premiums in the P&C insurance growing some 60% and the underlying life insurance business more than doubling, but there is room to grow a lot further. What we have is a successful bancassurance model, which gives us access to a good distribution and also provides us with a strong cost advantage versus uses third-party distributors. Going forward, we aim to combine our combined insurance business with at least a quarter until 2027. Customers in the Baltic countries are also increasingly interested in savings products as reflected in the notable growth in asset management over the last years. Overall, savings outside of bank deposits are still in its infancy across our region, but rising wages and insufficient public pension systems as well as increased entrepreneurial wealth creates needs among our customers for long-term savings, and we are committed to building a savings culture in Estonia, in Latvia and in Lithuania. Our aim is to double the amount of customers that have a long-term savings with us until 2030. This is a goal that we set already in 2022 and that we are on track on delivering on. In this area, we can very much leverage the Swedbank Group's ownership of Robur as well as the capabilities, the systems and the concept developed by Anna-Karin and her team for her customers here in Sweden. Now let's turn to the corporates. We are the #1 bank across our region when it comes to both corporate lending and to corporate deposits. We also have a strong position in ancillary products such as cash management, foreign payments and card acquiring. Our corporate banking strength is exemplified by the diversified lending portfolio we have across industries. The service offering for small companies is very similar to that of retail companies. So we have levered our strength on the retail side to build a good service offering for small corporates. As the company then grows, we can follow the company on this growth journey by layering more complex products and industry teams on top of our core service offering. Let me give you 2 examples. We recently created a process that allows us to onboard customers fully digitally. This is something that will save an entrepreneur a couple of hours of work as 2/3 of our customers are now fully onboarded digitally. Another illustration of our improved service model is our ESG tool, which we have been rolling out to help our corporate advisers give tailor-made advice around transition risk to our customers. This enhances the value we can offer small as well as large customers. We have a strong foundation. And going forward, we will focus on improving the product offering to make sure that we stay relevant for a wide range of customers. This will include upgrading our cards and payment solution and improving our physical and e-commerce offering. Going forward, we can also leverage on the partnership offering that Bo spoke about as our companies grow in size, internationalization and sophistication. Over the past years, our corporate loan book has grown by more than 40%. We have maintained our market-leading position in Estonia. We have grown our lending market share in Latvia, and we have become the largest corporate lender in Lithuania, fulfilling the ambition that we set out in 2022. Going forward, our target is to maintain these market shares and maintain the market leadership position in Estonia and in Lithuania. In the long run, we would also like to grow and become the largest corporate lender in Latvia. However, this ambition is postponed due to the investor tax introduced for a 3-year period starting in 2025. In general, a growing economy requires more lending. In addition to that, we see some near-term growth opportunities in our region. This will include required investments into defense and infrastructure as well as required investments into energy transition and securing the energy independence of our region. On top of that, we plan to begin supporting selected Baltic corporate customers with their financing needs in Poland. Polish trade and economic integration with our region are increasing, and we want to take the opportunity to lend to Baltic companies, as they invest in Poland, which would then add another leg to our growth story. Furthermore, there has been solid growth in corporate deposits, and we have the leading deposit market share in all Baltic countries. This indicates that we have an attractive cash management offering. By further strengthening this offering, we aim to continue to have the largest number of active corporate customers and maintain the leading deposit market share. This will, over time, also allow us to grow our noninterest income also for the corporate customers. As you have seen on the previous slides, volumes have increased a lot for us, which, together with rising salaries in the Baltic states as well as some margin compression, has led to continuous need for efficiency improvements for us. We have a structured way of working with these efficiencies. And going forward, our plan is to apply several tools to scale up our growth efficiently. We can divide these efficiencies into some different buckets. First, we continue to digitalize our customer journeys and processes. And going forward, we are in the process of applying AI in a variety of different areas. Secondly, as customers want to meet us more in digital channels rather than in human-assisted channels, our frontline staff can focus more on sales and customer service rather than on low value adds, which drives efficiency, customer satisfaction and sales per FTE. Third, we continue to simplify our processes to release resources for prioritized business needs. In Swedbank, we have high ambitions, and we will work with efficiencies to make sure that we can meet increased volumes without inflating the cost base. To sum it up, we are optimistic about the future of Swedbank, and we will continue to further enhance our customer interactions to improve our product offering and to lever our existing strong position. It is our conviction that our business of lending, of savings and investment, of payments, cash management will contribute to and participate in the economic success of Estonia, of Latvia and of Lithuania. So with that, I conclude not only the presentation of Baltic Banking, but also all presentations for all business areas. And I will hand it over to our CFO, Jon, to go through the financials.

Thank you, Olof. Let me then summarize what we have heard from my colleagues and present our financial plan for the coming years. But before I go into details, I'd like to emphasize our focus on shareholder value. This means that we're steering and developing Swedbank with a long-term perspective, where focus is on profitability, growth and efficiency. We should have a return on equity of at least 15% with a CET1 buffer of 200 basis points. The cost-to-income ratio should not be above 40% is a supporting target to our return on equity. Swedbank has delivered solid results over the past years. Of course, we have been helped by higher rates. But as you've heard, we have developed Swedbank to ensure that we can continue to create value for our shareholders and reach our return targets also in an environment with lower rates. Swedbank operates in home markets characterized by robust public finances and dynamic private sectors. Our plan 15/27 is based on our most recent macroeconomic forecast dated May 6. In essence, this means that we expect 2 more rate cuts by the Swedish Riksbank and 3 by the ECB. All our 4 home markets are expected to recover and to grow faster than the EU average. Inflation is forecasted to remain stable. Labor markets are expected to recover and real wages to increase. This will support consumption as well as the housing markets. Stock market volatility has affected our asset management business and our starting point is hence lowered. For planning purposes, we assume stock markets to grow by 5% annually. Lending growth is one of our key priorities. We forecast annual market lending growth of 3% in Sweden and between 7% and 8% on our Baltic home markets. As you've heard, Swedbank's ambition is to at least keep our market share for mortgages in all our home markets and to grow market share for corporates in Sweden. Hence, we do expect Swedbank to grow somewhat more than the market over the coming period. Looking ahead, we continue to maintain a market-leading daily banking offering, and we expect deposits to grow in line with the market. We will continue to execute on our disciplined pricing strategy, focusing on the right balance between profitability and market share. Over time, we expect that mortgage margins will recover. However, to be cautious, our financial plan is not based on that. A key priority for us is to expand ancillary income to diversify our income streams. We will continue to strengthen our customer interactions and offerings to leverage on our large customer base. We anticipate that normalized equity markets will benefit asset management income from Robur. Our high share of equity in our asset management business provides an attractive long-term tailwind for commission income. Our continued focus on savings in the Baltics and in Sweden, as you've heard, will increase fee-based revenues over time. Insurance business is another important growth area, as outlined by Olof, Anna-Karin and Malin, and there is a large potential to grow in both Sweden and in our 3 Baltic countries. Furthermore, we generate substantial income through our unique partnership with the savings banks. This collaboration involves cost sharing for IT development and other administrative services. The cost for this is included in Swedbank's total cost, but it's also reflected under other income as income from services sold to the savings banks. This is positive both for Swedbank and for the savings banks, as we can spread costs for IT development and other administrative services on a jointly larger income base. To ensure long-term shareholder value, we must deliver increased profit over time. To achieve sufficient profit growth, we work with efficiency improvements to mitigate our annual cost headwind. Over the past year, we have strengthened our structure for working with efficiency, and thereby, we have also increased our ambitions in this area. Additionally, to drive income growth, it is crucial to continue investing over time. This both to ensure that we keep up with our customers' ever-increasing expectations as well as to expand and broaden income streams. A cost-to-income ratio not above 40% will support our 15% return on equity target. And the extra SEK 1 billion for investments in 2024 and 2025 will end after this year. The extra investments have yielded and will continue to yield results in terms of enhanced customer interactions, improved efficiency and automation. The general hiring freeze has successfully reduced the number of employees so far by over 700. Going forward, we will ensure a balanced staffing structure and increased efficiency, leading to lower resource need in central units. Our ambition is to balance our ability to run one of the most cost-efficient banks with the need to continuously develop the bank to remain relevant for our customers. At the end of the first quarter, we had a CET1 buffer of 450 basis points. This includes the impact of the CRR3 implementation. Concerning the remaining regulatory uncertainties, our best estimate indicates that the implementation of the remaining IRB models will result in a net positive impact of around 50 basis points. We anticipate that most of the models will be approved during 2025 and 2026. As the models are approved, the Pillar 2 add-on will be released and our CET1 requirement will become 14.2%. The revised dividend policy increased the payout ratio from 50% to between 60% and 70%. Our forward-looking assumption is that the payout ratio will be in the upper end of this range. Business volume growth is expected to consume around 200 basis points over the period. We have no intention to hold more capital than necessary and reiterate our target of 200 basis points, i.e., the mid of the 100 to 300 range. Given no extra capital repatriation, we foresee an accumulation of capital resulting in a CET1 buffer of around 600 basis points in 2027. The right capital target level, given uncertainties around U.S. investigations is ultimately a judgment call. However, we acted on our strong capital position and earnings capacity to revise our dividend policy in the end of 2024. Similarly, we are prepared to revisit capital needs and extra repatriation when uncertainty is reduced. This leads up to our financial plan for the next years with a return on equity of at least 15%. Let me summarize the main elements. We anticipate that lower interest rates will impact net interest income negatively. Investments in strengthening customer interactions, efficiency and automation are expected to sustain or grow market shares. We will leverage our strong position in certain segments to expand our share of wallet. This leads to increased business volumes that contribute both to net interest income and ancillary income. We are firmly committed to maintaining cost discipline, and we have a cost-to-income ratio of not above 40%. This will be achieved by disciplined recruitment policy and fully utilizing investments in automation and AI. Additionally, each investment project will be assessed based on its potential to enhance revenue or reduce costs. Both efficiency and income growth are in focus. The temporary bank tax in Lithuania will end after this year. We do not forecast credit impairments, but for planning purposes, we have assumed a credit impairment ratio of 5% on average, this based on our historical outcome. In summary, our plan will result in continued robust capital generation by maintaining a dividend payout ratio of between 60% and 70% and repatriating excess capital, reducing the capital buffer to 200 basis points, we will achieve a return on equity of at least 200% (sic) [ 15% ]. With that, I hand it back to you, Magnus.

Thank you, Jon. We have now heard about the business priorities and the financial plan. Let's take another short break before we start the Q&A session in 10 minutes. Thank you. [Break]

Welcome back. Let's open the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Let me start with a question to you, Jens. Why did you decide to hold the Investor Day now?

Well, we have a good story to tell. That's the reason. So we had our, not first, but for a long time, we haven't had that. And then we had it in 2022, when we outlined a plan to deliver 15% return on equity in 2025. And then we have delivered. And now we are in 2025. So this was the time to look a few years ahead, and that's the reason why we have 15/27.

Thank you. I will now turn to Andreas Hakansson, who has the first question. Please go ahead, Andreas.

So 2 questions then. First one, on Slide 48, when you look at your return on equity bridge, you show a gray bar on the negative NII impact from falling interest rates. And I guess that's in line with the sensitivity guidance you've been giving on the SEK 6.1 billion for 100 bps. But then now you give a very helpful bar also on the volume side. And we haven't seen that before. And given that it's not quite, but almost half, the negative impact. So should we see that as the SEK 6.2 billion is really just a gross number and it should be SEK 6.2 billion plus whatever volumes that you now expect, which seems to be quite high. That's my first question.

Do you want us to take that question now, or...

Yes, please go ahead. Jon, that seems to be your slides.

Thank you, Andreas. Yes, as you know, we have the sensitivity. It's more or less the same as we have talked about before. But that is then assuming no increased volumes, and it's assuming also stable margins, et cetera, which you know very well. Then as we have talked about now, we have expectations for market growth of 3% in Sweden and between 7% to 8% in the Baltic countries per year. And we will capture those as our plan, plus a little bit more since you heard that we want to grow market share in some areas. So this is the impact that we estimate from growing volumes on the coming years. That's correct.

Yes. And just following up on that before we go to the next question. You are looking at almost 10% deposit growth in the Baltics. And given the rate structure, is it fair to say that margins on the deposit side and, of course, deposits are 2x your lending volumes, but they are roughly the same size or even better than on the lending side?

We do also expect to capture the market development on deposits, yes, right. And maybe you will go into how you price deposits, but the division between paid and nonpaid deposits have become rather stable over the past years. I don't know if you want to add something, Olof, on...

Yes, just a bit. I mean, Andreas, as you know, in the Baltics, we have a lot of excess deposits. Half of them are priced, half of them are not priced. And when it comes to the pricing of the price part of deposit, it varies a bit, right, because they are subject to market competition. But overall, what we are seeing is that they are also declining. The prices for these are declining as interest rate goes down.

And then my second question, you talked about growing at least in line with the market, and you talked about 3% mortgage growth. If volumes are picking up, is it just safe to assume that you're going to continue to then capture at least the growth of that market?

Well, the first thing is to say that, as you know, we've had a few rough months in the end of 2024. What we've seen now is that volumes are going up. And the last number, Anna-Karin, was it 15.9% in our own channels? And we strive to reach closer to our market share. Do you want to follow up, Anna-Karin?

Well, we also want to -- of course, we had a problem with availability before. And I think this is the main reason why we couldn't address the market share that we have, and we see that coming up now. So I think we will see a more positive development going further.

Thank you. The next question goes to Tarik El Mejjad.

Yes, Magnus, indeed, you've asked the question I want to ask, why CMD basically today. And now, I mean, there is a number of uncertainties that could eventually clear in the next 6 months, and your plan runs till end of the year. And yes, I mean, we're expecting probably some other news. So then I would like to move to Slide 45. So can you clarify what do you mean year-end, year-end plus 1? What's your starting base? Because if it's '24, it's quite a high base to start with and difficult to reconcile the profit growth from that such a high base into '26, '27. So if you can clarify that. And then on the revenues, could you give us an indication a bit on where do you see the NII trough? You explained a bit the margin dynamics and how cautious you are there. But on the volume growth, you discussed it in the previous question, but what gives you confidence that the volume growth is coming back in '26 or so? Because at the moment, I think everyone is a bit puzzled that is nowhere to be seen despite the rate cut cycle. And then just a last question on the capital. I want to ask you when you will settle and when and how much. But can you give us confidence that actually there's no such as a probation period, I think, for Swedbank, and that how fast you can actually run down that excess capital to deliver the ROTE after you settle, or you'll have to go through a period of remediation and whatnot?

Well, let me start in taking the last part of that. The first important thing to say, there are no news regarding the U.S. investigations into Swedbank. And as I've repeatedly said, we do not know whether we will get any fine. And if we do get any fine, we do not know how large such a potential fine would be. And we do not know how the timetable looks like. So that's important to say. And no new information. And if we do get an information, you know we try to be as open and transparent as possible. Jon, do you want to follow up?

Yes. If I start with your question on volumes, I mean, we are estimating market volumes. Of course, that's very hard to do an estimation of. But that's our best guess, and we are willing to capture the market growth in more areas. And in some areas, we're willing to capture more. So we have seen in the Baltics countries already that the growth has picked up. In Sweden, it has been lagging a bit, but we foresee that it will gradually pick up in Sweden as well. Then when it comes to your question on starting point, I mean, in different slides, we have a little bit of different starting year, but we have been trying to be clear on all slides which is the starting year and then showing either the historical development in some of them or our forecasted development in others going forward. So that would be it.

And for Slide 45, what is the starting point?

45, that is on ancillary income. I have no glasses on, so I cannot...

2019.

2019.

Excuse me, sorry, I was referring to the one we have in the Investor Relations website, which is actually the profit before impairments and tax year-end, and then you show year-end plus 1. It's your presentation just after the fees and commission slide. I can take that offline later.

Let's come back to that, Tarik.

Sorry, now I see which one you mean. That is an illustrative example to show how we think when I say that we are required to increase profit over time. Then obviously, rates will go up and down. So some years, it will be done without any major effort from our side. Sometimes it will be hard. But when we have the planning, then we need to have a long-term view. And if rates are stable, then that is a way to show how we need to increase profit over time. And then what we have done is our current business, it has an underlying growth. As rates -- sorry, volumes go up, payments volumes go up with GDP, et cetera, et cetera. But then we also have the cost headwind that we need to mitigate, and we also need to increase investments to make sure that we're relevant over time. So that is the way to explain our thinking about how profit will go up, how cost will go up, how much we need to mitigate, et cetera, et cetera, to, in the long run, make sure that we can deliver an increased profit for our shareholders. So it is a fictitious example, but it's based on real data. Though it's a bit fictitious, but it's based on real data.

All right. Thank you. Next question goes to Magnus Andersson.

Yes. Just a follow-up on the previous questions. I don't know if you answered this first question actually, whether for the full year of '25, as most of us probably saw your plan, 15% ROE plan for '25. Does this mean that you still expect to reach at least 15% for '25, although we haven't seen the full impact of lower rates on your results yet? And linked to that, how should we think about '26 here? Should we expect -- do you expect to remain above '25 throughout the years until 2027? Or are you just talking about '27 here really? And secondly, just on capital. I mean, unless you get the U.S. settlement here, will you work with a cap for how high you will let the management buffer become and just pay the 60% to 70% dividend? Or could we see some additional measures? I mean, I guess you can't wait forever. Linked to that also, for how long will you wait? And are you actually in a dialogue? Or is it just quiet on the other end of the line?

Well, let me sort of start with the last question then. As I said, there is no news regarding the U.S. investigation. And if we do get the news, we will immediately come out if there are any major news. Now the key thing to remember is that Jon put it very eloquently in his speech, and that is that we have a capital buffer range of 100 to 300 bps. And then what we do is that we target 200 bps, which is in the midst of that. Then what we see is that we have a dividend policy that has been raised from 50% up to 60% to 70%. And what we do is that we distribute dividends. And when we do the calculations, we've used the 70%. What then happens is that we still build more capital. So when it comes to '27, we have 600 basis points, and that means 400 basis points above. We have no intention to hold more capital than necessary. And as Jon said, we acted before. And the phrase used was, then it is a judgment call, because we do not want to keep more capital than necessary. Jon, do you want to...

Sorry, just can I follow up to that one first? So if we are at the end of '27, you haven't heard anything, you could actually adjust your cap? It's not impossible that you would adjust your capital base to 200 basis points anyway?

Well, I say it is a judgment call. It's a judgment call, yes. Now, Jon.

Thank you. Yes, Magnus, I mean, what we have said is that -- and you've heard Jens say it several times that we should have a business that can reach a sustainable return on equity. And that means that, I mean, we do planning for a business that can reach 15%. And we say that we then have a cost-to-income ratio of not above 40% because that we will be needing to have in order to reach 15%. We should also have a return on equity target of 200 basis points in excess capital. Then of course, you can find situations where this will not be possible if you look at rates falling very, very fast or if inflation goes very high or something. But in normal circumstances, we definitely plan for having that return on equity of 15% every year. That is what the essence is.

And what we do is that we do not guide on 2025 and on 2026. And we show very clearly how the trajectory is, how we should reach it, sustainable return on equity of 15% in 2027, with those 4 parts, growing income, keeping costs low, using the sort of 5 bps of credit losses and not holding more capital than necessary.

Sorry, I'm a bit confused. It sounded, on Jon, like you thought you could achieve more than 15% for '25, '26 and '27. But on your comment, it sounds like it's not necessarily the case.

Well, I didn't guide on an individual year. I'm just saying that our target is that Swedbank's business should be able to achieve a return on equity of 15% and then with the 200 basis point buffer, and we should be able to do that unless sort of you have something extraordinary. So that is what the essence is, but we do not guide on the individual year. You see the bridge, as Jens says, to '27. And then you'll have to make your own assumptions on the years in between.

All right. Thank you. Next question goes to Nicolas McBeath.

Yes, it sounds like there is some shift to market share focus when I listen to your communication, and it's more than what you've been speaking about before about growing corporate lending market share and also to defend Swedish mortgages, where you've been losing market share for quite some time. So I was wondering whether you think this is achievable without competing more fiercely with margins? Or are you willing to cope with lower margins to deliver on those market shares? That's my first question.

Well, let me take that first, and let's see if we can send it to the business area heads then. But the first thing to keep in mind is that we've had a few years when we had a very strong focus on the fundamentals of the bank. We worked with AML issues, worked with strengthening corporate governance. We worked with all those things. Then we got into time with more focus on business. And what's happening right now is we're sending a clear signal and that is that we want to grow volumes, and we are ready to capture that. That is the message.

Okay. And then my second question was related to also this ROE bridge that you provided in the presentation. So if I try to calculate what that bridge implies in terms of cost growth, I end up at just above SEK 3 billion higher cost in 2027 versus 2024. So just wanted to check whether this is roughly how you think about the cost growth in these years. Yes, that's my question.

Jon?

You'll have to wait a bit before me coming back and giving you the cost guidance for the coming years. What we have said is that we should have a cost-to-income ratio not above 40%. And then we've talked about the cost headwind, and we have also talked about sort of how we're going to grow income. So I will not go in to comment the individual numbers. You'll have to do your own assumptions there based on the fact that we want to run a business that provides a sustainable return on equity of 15%.

Okay. Thank you. The next question goes to Bettina Thurner.

Yes, I had one, please, on Swedish Banking. I was looking at the Slide 14, where you show the amount of customers without any adequate monthly savings, which is quite high, 1.2 million, if I read this correctly. And then if I look at your recent fact book, the total amount of private customers in Sweden is 3.8 million. So that means about 30% of the customers don't have any adequate monthly savings in place, which is quite surprising for a country like Sweden, where it's assumed that finance is high and mutual fund market is quite active. So if you could just clarify whether I'm reading that correctly and why that is? And then the second question that I had was on costs. I think you mentioned that SEK 1 billion of temporary investments in '24, '25 will come to an end. But at the same time, on the Slide, I think it was, 45, that Tarik was also mentioning, you talk about increasing investment spend. So I just wanted to clarify that and how you think about underlying cost development versus investment spend?

Thank you. Anna-Karin, I think it's your turn.

Yes. When it comes to the savings opportunities for our customers, we have many customers that have their salary accounts with us. So we don't know if they have savings otherwhere. So I mean, in Sweden, most people have actually a savings habit, but it's an opportunity for us to work with our customers much closely and also to provide individualized and proactive offers with our new data-driven models. So this is an opportunity for us to get the customer to start their savings habit with us instead.

Jon?

Yes. Thank you, Bettina. It's clear that the SEK 1 billion extra that we have done for '24 and '25, that will end. But don't forget that we already, without that, have a substantial underlying yielding investment portfolio. So it's just that the extra boost that we've had for 2 years, that will not continue, but we still have a lot of underlying investment every year. Then going back to the slide, yes, we believe that for us to be relevant, we will need to increase investments a bit every year. That is also why it's fundamental for us to increase the ambitions when it comes to efficiency throughout the operation. And that is not just in the business areas, that's throughout the whole bank, and as I said, not at least in central units. So you need to look at the things combined in that sense.

Okay. Yes, that's very clear. If I can just ask one clarification on the savings side. So I should view the 1.2 million, and I think it was the 700,000 -- sorry, 400,000, you know that they have savings accounts with other institutions in combination, but the 1.2 million could also have something in place already at other banks?

Yes.

Correct.

All right. Thank you. Next question goes to Shrey Srivastava.

My first is actually a follow-up. On the previous point around market share, I acknowledge there's some very helpful disclosure on the structural improvements that you made to your business in Swedish banking. But should you continue to lose market share to sort of smaller niche players, for example, do you preclude the chance that you could do anything on the pricing front on mortgages? And my second one is sort of more conceptual one on Baltic Banking. With economies and volumes growing at the rate the Baltics are, you'd expect a sort of 40% market share to not be as defensible going forward. How do you think about emerging competitive threats and you defending, I mean, such a significant market share over the next 10 to 20 years?

Well, thank you, Shrey. The key point is that we always try to find this balance between volumes and margins. And that's an ongoing discussion we have, and that sort of includes Jon, Anna-Karin, Malin, Bo, Olof, that is a continued discussion we have. But the key point is that when we see we lost market share, and I'm sorry if I'm stealing your fame here, Anna-Karin, but what we've seen is that when we are fast, when we're quick, when we solve our customers' issues fast and are available, we can do business. And that is what Anna-Karin has shown today. Now I stole everything, but Anna-Karin, do you want to follow up on that?

No, you answered so good, but that's actually what we have seen. We do not need to go lower in price because it has to do with how we treat the customer and how fast we are and also how proactive we are with customers. And that's what I have outlined in this presentation today. So I think this is the key for us to achieve a model where we can gain more market share again.

Olof?

Yes. No, thank you for this question. So in terms of competition, I think we can, in many ways, see an increasing competitive landscape, which is also what you allude to. We see increased competition, both from sort of local banks, but sometimes also our customer gets so large, we get competition from international banks as well as from fintech players, both domestic and external fintech players. Now what I would like to say, I mean, we have, as you alluded to, a 40% market share when it comes to private. On corporates, it's 1/3 or so. So it's a bit lower. I mean, going forward, our aim is, of course, to maintain the market shares that we have and capture the momentum in these growing markets. And what am I certain about? I'm, of course, certain about the strength of our franchise. We have good people. We have good systems. The customers like us. They trust us. We have so many customers that we have a lot of scale that we can use when we grow. So I'm optimistic about the future ability for us to continuously compete in these markets for our customers' businesses.

Thank you. Next question goes to Markus Sandgren.

So I just wanted to follow up on Nicolas' question regarding market shares. So starting with savings and asset management. I mean, you have roughly 21% market share, and that has been like that for a very long time. Everyone is going after it, and it's the same market share as you have in everything else. So what should you really do to drive this? I mean flows are not going to change this in the short-term perspective. Is it that you have more equities in your asset management that should increase your market share? Or what should really drive this?

Well, of course, in the short run, it doesn't affect much because we are such a large. But we know that the sort of things you do now is that the things that you can harvest in the future. So I think Anna-Karin talked and now Malin, I think, you need to take this question and follow up on that.

Yes, I would be happy to. So I think there are a number of things that can make us grow. One thing is, that Anna-Karin spoke about, to ensure that our customers have their savings and investments with us. But if you look at the Premium and Private Banking business, we will grow. We will take in -- 20% of our new customers will come from externally, so that will add volumes. But then you're also correct that we do have, particularly with larger clients, a quite large share of equities that we would like to convert into, for example, discretionary management solutions, which are convenient, both for us and for the customers.

Okay. And then on corporate lending, is there any specific segments you're looking for? Or is it just across the board?

Bo, do you want to take that?

I will say what we are good at, we will do even more. So it's important to see that we are following our real estate sector, we are following the institutional sector, and of course, the small corporates and mid-corporates. We have a potential in the mid-corp sector where we have a lower part. So we are looking at that. But if you look at the total sector, it is going all the way. We must be good at every sector.

Olof, do you want to take the chance to talk a bit about the Baltic corporate business there as well?

Yes. I think I mentioned many things about the corporate business in the Baltics. But I mean, we have 1/3 of the market approximately. We have managed to increase our market share slightly, but still increase it from an already solid position. We have done it so by doing many of the things that Bo is set to do in Sweden. And I think that we are very optimistic about it. I mean we do see some -- I mean, in general, as the economies grow, the companies need more capital. And then on top of that, you have some additional sources of growth, so defense and infrastructure and energy transition.

Yes. And speaking of the Baltics, is that, that you will follow customers that go into Poland? Is that more of a help to the Baltic customers? Or are you sort of looking into what the Polish market looks like?

No, we're very much following our customer. It's a service to our customer. But then obviously, it's had another growth dimension to our most Lithuanian business.

Next question goes to Riccardo Rovere.

I have a couple, if I may. The first one is on Slide 46. The column you provide with regard to '27, in theory, we could work out what you have in mind in terms of cost, looking at the number for '24. But the very final part of the column is a bit blurry. Is there any reason why that column is a bit blurry? Do you have in mind maybe that the cost number for 2027 is a range rather than a firm number? Can we use that column somehow? This is the first question. The second question I have is a sort of follow-up on what Magnus, I think, asked before. Let's assume for a second that you get fined. Let's assume that the fine is large enough to bring your profit to 0 in 1 year. Would you be in a position to still pay a dividend because you're running a large surplus capital, especially if the requirement goes back to closer to 14%. Is that the right way of thinking, or not, given that, that year, you will not build capital?

So Riccardo, were those the 2 questions you had? Do you...

Yes. Well, then there was, let's say, a kind of follow-up one, again, on mortgages or loan growth in Sweden. In general, you have 3% mortgages and corporate. And then you have GDP which is growing kind of 2%. And inflation seems to be kind of 2%, too. So if I take the real GDP plus 2% and the inflation around 2%, I would land at 4%. I was wondering why your mortgage and corporate lending is supposed to grow less than the gross GDP, looks like, okay? I mean looking at the charts, which are not super precise.

So Riccardo, let me see if I will start with your second question. It's a very hypothetical question. The key point, and we've been very clear in that, is that we have a dividend policy between 60% and 70%. And if we look at 2027, we will have 400 basis points in excess capital, and we have no intention to hold more capital than necessary. And in the end, it will be a judgment call if and when -- when the conclusion happens of the U.S. investigations. Do you want to follow up?

Yes. I mean we're giving you these slides, Riccardo, as a way for you to plug things into your own model. So you need to go back to what we're saying. We're steering the bank with a long-term perspective. So of course, we have some idea of what the cost will be in 2027. I'm sorry, but I will not give you that. But at the same time, we need to be agile as things develop. So the exact cost for 2027, I don't know, because that will depend a bit on how rates will develop, how our growth will develop, if we see some opportunities somewhere that will add extra shareholder value, et cetera, et cetera. So you need to go back to what we have said as the targets. We should have a long-term sustainable return on equity of at least 15%. We believe in order to reach that, we need to have a cost-to-income ratio not above 40% and so on. And then you'll have to make your own assumptions. So we blurred it by purpose, so you would not sit too much with a ruler and try to figure out exact numbers, because that would not be giving you that much. So...

Exactly what I've done, actually.

Jon, you want to follow up also on the question about sort of the size of GDP and...

Yes, yes. I mean I think you're right to the sense that why should, over time, I would expect that lending growth would, in a mature country like Sweden, be around the nominal GDP. You might be right that it will be 4%. We don't know. But if it will be 4%, then I know that Anna-Karin and Malin's ambition is actually to capture our market share in this and then hence to grow with the 4%. But we're also coming from a period where people, for good reasons, have been cautious, and we are in very uncertain times, as Jens talked about. So I think that is the reason why our macroeconomists are not forecasting that high growth on the mortgage. But let's see when we close the year. We do assumptions and then we set our ambitions. And the ambitions are clear, at least keep our market share for mortgages and then grow in corporate and some other areas as we have talked about.

Thank you. Next question goes to Namita Samtani.

My first one, why is the IRB review less than you anticipated? Because the Swedish FSA has given you 100 bps CET1 requirement, but your comments only imply it's a 50 bps headwind. And secondly, how do you expect to be a competitor in the large corporate space in Sweden when SEB and Danske take the bulk of that business? Would there ever be a consideration to sell this business if it doesn't work?

Well, the second part, I think, is the easy part. We have no intention to sell that business. It's a strong business, and we are the bank for the many corporate and businesses. Maybe I'll let Bo think about how we can do more market volumes, talk about that. But Jon, do you want to take the first part first on the review?

Sure. No, I think -- I mean, we have add-ons for various models as long as we are sort of not compliant with the new models that are not approved. In some part, it is via a Pillar 2 add-on in Sweden of 100 basis points. In some places, ECB has chosen to do it by multipliers on the model. So the risk weight that comes out has a multiplier instead of a Pillar 2 add-on. Then in Sweden, it is so that the Pillar 2 add-on is based for mortgages and for corporates and also for consumer lending. Now we have a mortgage floor in Sweden. So then the Pillar 2 add-on that is related to mortgages comes on top of the 25% mortgage floor. So even if the new mortgage models will give a somewhat higher REA, it will sort of still give a release in that part, which it might not in the other part. So that is why you will not see the 100 basis points coming back, rather 50 or there around. But at the same time, it will reduce our CET1 capital requirement with 100 basis points.

Bo, do you want to say a few words on how we will be competitive in this tough competitive environment?

Of course, it's tough, but I will say that Swedbank are a strong corporate bank. And like I said, we have some sectors where we absolutely are #1. And what we have done now is to create one corporate business. So we are working together with one corporate. And that means that we can build very, very good teams around corporate customers. And absolutely, when we are moving outside Stockholm, we can do teams and work with mid-corps and growing corporates in a much better way. And we have seen this model working. And we have seen that 2024 was the first year that we were not losing market share, and we have started very well in 2025. So I'm confident that we now are going into a model that will be very, very successful for Swedbank.

Magnus?

Thank you. Next question goes to Emre Prinzell.

I got a question on volumes also, I apologize for that. But Swedish mortgage market grew 2% approximately year-on-year as of April. So lending growth is picking up, but not for Swedbank, at least not yet. And I just would like you to elaborate why? You already answered that 59% of the calls are answered within 3 minutes. So will the last 20 percentage points then change the growth rate from 0% to 2%? Or is there some other driver that needs to kick in here?

Anna-Karin?

Well, there is another driver as well. We need to be more proactive towards customers. So we need to be fast in the process in handling the loan application, of course, and answer the call. That's, of course, the hygiene factor. But we also need to reach out to our customers that does not have the mortgage here, but they still live in a single house address. So we have a lot more to do, but we have started quite well.

Could I just follow up there? And as Anna-Karin said, we have started well. And if you look at the latest number, we had a market share coming in for own channels, which was between 15% and 16%. And if you look for own channels, we have a market share of around 18% -- or 17% or 18%. So that means we are close to our market share. Now let's see. It's a new day today, and it's a tough competition there, but I'm certain that we have the best full service offering.

All right. Thank you. Jacob Kruse, please go ahead.

So just 2 questions from me then. First, on the assisted services, you say you want to cut those by 50% by 2027. So is that really the driver of how you get to 80% that people self-serve more? And could you talk about what that would do to your staff and cost levels? And my second question is just going back to the Slide 45. I hope that's what it is for you as well. When you talk about year-end and the cost and revenue expectations. Could you just set out the details here again? I still don't quite understand why the investment expense go up while you're cutting the current investment spending plan? And just related to that, this reduction in IT development spend, given how much you're focusing on automation and digitization and AI, do you think that, that's the right time to do that? Or rather why do you think it's the right time to do that?

Well, let me take an overall sort of perspective first before I give the floor to Anna-Karin and Jon. And the first one is, of course, that we steer the bank on costs, not on FTEs. That's important to remember. Then -- and I'm not going to answer Jon's question, but it's a stylized example. And what we are seeing is that we will continue to grow investments. I mean we are a tech company and the bank. So we will always continue to have investment needs, and we'll continue to invest. We'll use new ideas and things like this, because if we don't, we have a problem. So we need to invest there. But Anna-Karin, do you want to follow up?

Yes. And you asked about what will we do with the time that we will save. We need to be more accurate to our customers. We need to do more of the things that matters the most for our customers. And that's not really making a withdrawal of SEK 100 or answer of the balance on the account. So what we need to do is to free up time for customer-facing staff to be proactive and to give the customer the advice, but also have an opportunity to make individualized proactive advice through the service model that we have that are data-driven. So I think that both those things will help our customer-facing staff to do more with the customer. But the level we have of our staff today will be enough in order to reach 80% of the calls answered in 3 minutes.

Jon?

No, I think if you look at where we're coming and the slide that you're talking about, then we have, for a couple of years, been benefited from sharply increasing rates. And hence, our profits have gone up. We have taken that opportunity to increase our investments to build for the future. But as rates are coming down and have already come down, we need to make sure that we adjust our cost to what is long-term sustainable. So in this picture, the extra SEK 1 billion is already out. And then it's a stylish example that we are going to grow income. Lending will over time grow with nominal GDP roughly in Sweden and more so in the Baltics, as they are catching up. Payments will grow with GDP and so on. Then there might be cost -- sorry, margin pressure on some, as you know, at least in the payments area where the competition has increased. Then our costs will grow due to increase in salaries, inflation on rents, IT maintenance, you name it. Then we need to work with efficiencies because we need to make sure that we every day make, for instance, the production of a mortgage or a customer contact more efficient. I mean that's not typical for banks. That's how all societies have grown and productivity has been increased. And here, we are increasing our ambitions, as I'm saying. I think banks in general have a lot to learn from the industry where they have worked for a long, long time, very, very structured way. So we are looking at that and getting inspired and making that better. And then you come to the efficiency part in this picture. Then we also want to outline that we understand that in order to make sure that we are long-term relevant to our customers, that we take business opportunities to increase market shares or grow revenue somewhere, we need to increase investments. I mean we could have hidden that somewhere else, but we wanted to outline that this is fundamental for us and show that we truly are focused on investing to make Swedbank relevant also in the future. But then you have already taken the SEK 1 billion out and then it's sort of to show that incrementally, we need every year to invest to develop Swedbank. And of course, a large part of that is IT, but there can also be other parts in educating, developing our staff and so on to make sure that we are relevant. But it's a stylish example. It's based sort of on how we think with the bank. The figures are, of course, taken from Swedbank, even though they are rounded off to make it stylish. So just to outline how we think about it for the future and how we plan and steer the bank to make sure that we can increase profit over time.

Thank you. Next question goes to Bettina. Welcome back, Bettina.

Sorry for asking another question. I had 2. One very quick one, just a clarification. I assume that in your cost assumptions and where excess capital lands at, you don't assume any more VAT recoveries, even though in practice, you might have some more after the last quarter. And then the second one is just if I look at the trends that you outlined for Sweden versus the Baltics and what your plans are in both divisions, it sounds like the Baltics division could become a bigger part of Swedbank. If you think in 10 years or so, so in the very long term for Swedbank, could it be that suddenly half of the business is based in the Baltics or even more? Or do you have a specific business mix in mind there in the long term?

Well, thank you, Bettina. I don't know if Jon or Olof should answer sort of that. But let me start first with the simple part, and that's the VAT. We have not calculated that we'll get more. We are looking into whether we can get more, but we have not calculated anything like that.

I mean, as Olof has outlined, yes, and as I think you know, the Baltic economies are growing faster than Swedish economies as they are converging. So I would assume over time that the Baltic part will grow. On the other hand, you also saw that we're expecting rates to come down more in Baltics than in Sweden. But of course, over time, we don't have sort of set that plan, but the Baltic part is a growth part for Sweden, and we're happy to have the 3 home markets in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania together with the Swedish as our home markets.

So Olof, what are your aspirations for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania?

Yes. No, of course, our aspiration is to continue to deliver profitable growth to our shareholders and to service our customers and the local societies where we operate. Now how far can we go? Let's keep in mind that when it comes to the lending book, then 16% of lending comes from Baltic banking. So we would need to outgrow the Swedish part for many, many years for anything to substantially change. So I think that's important to keep in perspective.

Thank you. Namita Samtani, please go ahead.

Thanks for the follow-up. Just a quick one. What happens to the hiring freeze you currently have going forward? Are you going to stop that?

Well, the first thing is that we've had that now for more than a year, and it has worked in the sense that we are down around 700 persons. But let me be clear, and I was that in my speech, is we made quite a few business-critical examples and especially, I would say, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, because what you see is quite a lot of turnaround in the number of customer-facing staff. Now what we are saying is that we're looking into whether it's time to stop that, but making sure that we don't increase staff too much and that we have a very good cost control, because one of the reasons for that it went up a bit too high was that we saw that the number of people leaving the bank went down quite dramatically due to especially hard times. And that means that people stay in the job for a longer time.

And Jacob has a follow-up.

Yes. Just a couple of very quick ones. So you used to have a 7 basis points asset quality or loan loss expectation in your previous plan. Is that still your assumption? And secondly, on the ancillary or commission income, I think you talked about growing it and you talked about 5% asset management or equity market growth. Is that kind of 5% annual growth level roughly what you target? Or could you be a bit more specific there?

Yes. Thank you. Yes, we had 7 basis points the last time, which was based on the historical outcome, including shipping and offshore. Now we see that we have 5 basis points historical outcome on the type of portfolio mix that we have today. And since we don't forecast credit impairments, we have just simply taken the 5 basis points that we have on the current portfolio mix and plugged that in. So I know that you will make your own assumptions on it anyway, so 5 basis points is what's plugged in here. The same is when it comes to growth on the stock market. So we simply assume 5 percentage yearly growth rate. You will have to make your own assumptions there, but that is what's plugged in here.

Yes. But on the commission side, is that also the level of revenue growth overall that you look for? Because apart from the asset management business, you seem to be talking about ancillary revenues on the corporate side, et cetera.

What I said, if you go apart from the Robur part, then if you go to payments, for instance, on commission income, then nominal GDP is what we normally assume, and then we assume a little bit of margin compression due to changes in the methods that are used. So that is what we have assumed, and then you'll make your own assumptions there.

Thank you. The last question goes to Riccardo.

It's going to be a very quick one. On bank taxes, you expect those to improve your return on equity, so they're expected to go down. Can you elaborate a little bit more what you expect in this space? And do you think what you expect is kind of written in the stone, which I guess is probably not, but just to have an idea what you are embedded in your projections?

So let me start and then, Olof, you need to correct me if I say something that's wrong. But when it comes to Lithuania, the special NII tax or investor tax, the Prime Minister was here in Sweden. I met him. He's been very clear that, that will be ended in 2025. When it comes to Latvia, it started, so it's '25, '26 and '27. And there, that is problematic, of course, and that was one of the reasons why Olof was very clear that he put the ambition of being the largest corporate bank on hold. So it has consequences. And other than that, we stick with no change policy.

All right. Thank you very much. That was the last question. Now over to you, Jens.

Thank you, Magnus, and thank you all for tuning in. Swedbank is well positioned for continued and sustainable growth and profitability. And we have a clear strategy. We have a clear business model, clear business priorities and a strong foundation. So today, we presented Swedbank 15/27, our plan on how we are committed to deliver a sustainable return on equity of at least 15%. And that has 3 parts: strengthening customer interactions, grow volumes, and also continue to work with cost. We remain committed to deliver a sustainable return on equity of at least 15%. And thank you all for attending. We are confident in our ability to reach our goals. We know where we're going, and we know how to get there. Thank you.