TCM Group A/S (TCM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of the Q3 results for TGM Group. Presenters today are our CFO, Mogens Elbrønd Pedersen; and myself, CEO, Torben Paulin. We will comment on the business and the financial results, after which, we will hand over to the operator for the Q&A session. Let us start the presentation and turn to Page 2 for the business update. Underlying like-for-like growth in our core business, excluding third-party revenue in Q3 was 4%. Growth in our Norwegian business was strong, driven revenue in other countries up with 39%. In Q3, high mark in B2C sales declined which was offset by growth in B2B sales, primarily driven by lower margin project sales. This change in sales mix had a significant negative impact on gross margin and reduced earnings. We have already undertaken a number of actions to address the development to adjust production capacity and increased efficiency in our production, we decided to close down the third shift, which was the night shift at the Tvis site from mid-September. This will both cut costs and increase the operational efficiency of the company. In addition, a reduction corresponding to 10 white-collar employees was implemented in September. In view of the development concrete actions to further improve efficiency and reduce costs has been initiated. Given the current macroeconomic uncertainty, we have chosen not to exercise the mandate to distribute an extraordinary dividend provided on the AGM in April. Number of branded stores end of Q3 was 92 versus 91 in Q3 last year. In Q3, the new flagship store for Svane in Norway opened in Alnabru outside Oslo. The store will be a strong ambassador for the Svane brand in Norway going forward. In Denmark, we have restructured the store network for Svane and terminated the agreement with the store in Taastrup. Instead, we have opened a new flagship store in Glostrup in greater Copenhagen area. It was opened in the beginning of November, and you can see how beautiful it looks on the presentation. The store is the biggest kitchen store in the country and in Scandinavia. In Q3, a new Tvis Køkken store opened in Slagelse and in Nettoline, a new store opened in Odense, store #2 in Odense. In Q4, further store openings have taken place in Svane, Arendal in Norway and Nettoline in Ringsted in Denmark. We continue our focus on product innovation. And in Q3, the Tvis Køkken launched a new beautiful kitchen design named MG50 developed in cooperation with the Danish designer, Morten Georgsen. MG50 is a classic design inspired by the golden age of Danish design in the 1950s. The initial customer reception has been very positive. Please turn to Page 3. Some financial highlights for the quarter. Reported revenue was DKK 265 million, corresponding to a revenue growth of 1%. Adjusted EBIT was DKK 21 million compared to DKK 32 million in Q3 last year. Adjusted EBIT margin was 7.8% compared to 12.1% in Q3 last year. Mogens will elaborate on the underlying drivers of this development. Net working capital ratio was minus 0.8% compared to minus 4.6% last year. Cash conversion was 55%. I will now hand over to Mogens to go through the financial highlights.

Thank you, Torben. Please turn to Page 4. The revenue development in Denmark was relatively flat in the quarter. Reported revenue declined by 1.7% and the underlying revenue growth in our core business in Denmark excluding third-party was up by 1% in the quarter. Revenue outside Denmark continued to grow significantly. In Q3, the revenue growth was 39% and it was driven by sales to the Norwegian market and driven by both organic growth, same-store growth and growth from new and recently opened stores within the Svane brand. Please turn to Page 5. As Torben mentioned, high-margin B2C sales declined compared to Q3 last year. The revenue shortfall was offset by growth within B2B sales, which was primarily driven by growth in sales from lower margin B2B project sales. As a result, this led to an unfavorable change in sales mix with a significant impact -- negative impact on gross margin, which decreased from 21.5% to 18.7% in Q3. Furthermore, the effect from the implemented sales price increases has a faster phase in within B2C sales compared to the B2B project sales. And therefore, the decline in B2C sales also led to a lower-than-expected gross margin improvement from the implemented sales price increases during this year. Operating expenses increased by DKK 4 million, and the increase was primarily due to higher selling expenses, among others, driven by costs related to the launch of the new MG50 kitchen line. In Q3, nonrecurring items included restructuring costs related to the restructuring of the store, the network in Svane, Denmark, as Torben mentioned earlier, as well as costs related to the organizational restructuring implemented in September. In Q3 last year, nonrecurring items was a net gain of DKK 12 million, which was due to a technical gain from the kitchn/Celebert transaction during Q3 last year. Adjusted EBIT ended at DKK 21 million compared to Q3 last year of DKK 32 million. Please turn to Page 6. Net working capital at the end of Q3 was minus DKK 9 million compared to minus DKK 50 million last year. Our inventory levels remained significantly higher than last year, which is due to increased raw material prices and the decision to establish a buffer of parts and raw materials. The supply of raw material and components have now stabilized, and therefore, we will reduce the buffer levels going forward. Trade payables declined compared to Q3 last year. To mitigate the impact from higher input costs, we have to a greater extent than last year, pursued, cash discounts and thereby shorter payment terms. Other payables end of Q3 last year included a favorable impact of DKK 10 million from the extended credit in the stimulus packages following COVID-19. Net debt was DKK 335 million, including lease liabilities compared to DKK 224 million at the end of Q3 last year. Excluding liabilities related to IFRS 16, net interest-bearing debt was DKK 274 million compared to DKK 187 million in Q3 last year. Compared to last year, net debt is impacted by the payouts to ordinary dividends of DKK 55 million -- DKK 54 million and the share buyback program we implemented during June last year and this year of DKK 150 million. Leverage ratio, excluding IFRS 16, increased from 1.2% to 2.1%. Please turn to Page 7. Free cash flow in Q3 was minus DKK 6 million compared to minus DKK 12 million in Q3 last year. The cash flow was primarily impacted by the change in net working capital in the quarter compared to Q3 last year. Investments were lower than Q3 last year. And CapEx ratio year-to-date was 1.4% compared to 2.7% last year. Cash conversion ratio measured over 12 months was 55%. Please turn to Page 8. And the financial outlook. As communicated in the company announcement, October 20, we have lowered our guidance for both the full year revenue and earnings. Based on the lower-than-expected sales and earnings in Q3 and given that an unfavorable sales mix is also expected in Q4, we estimate a full year revenue in the range of DKK 1.12 billion to DKK 1.16 billion and the full year adjusted EBIT in the range DKK 100 million to DKK 130 million.

Thank you, Mogens. Even though traffic to stores and incoming orders are on a fairly normal level. Consumer confidence, inflation, macroeconomic uncertainty and the current housing market development is making the future outlook extremely difficult to forecast. Therefore, we have during September and throughout October and November, focused on increasing efficiency and adjust the cost base. Our target is still to gain market share also in a declining market. This concludes our presentation, and we will now hand over to the operator for the Q&A session. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our first question. And the questions come from the line of [ Fredric Cyon ] from Carnegie.

I have a couples, so I'm just going to take them one by one. The first relates to these initiatives you have started. So first, if you could maybe give us an idea of what do you expect from SG&A savings, both from the closure of the night shift and then the recent FTE reductions and also whether these will take full effect in Q4.

Do you ask for the financial effect in money? Is that correct? Understood?

Yes, exactly.

Yes, it's a little bit maybe difficult to mention a figure because some of the FTE reduction has happened and some is also going to happen. And in some cases, people they sub immediately, and then we take the effect as nonrecurring costs. And in other cases, they continue to work and that means the effect will not be fully impacted in Q4 but will also take a little bit longer.

Okay. Understood. Then on the recent price increases that you just initiated, could you give us an idea of the magnitude of this recent price increase?

Yes. The one that has been announced now with the effect from the end of December is in line with what we normally have. Normally, it was around 3%, and it's in that level also this time.

Okay. Then just on the nonrecurring items. I think you mentioned that they relate to, among other things, the restructuring of the store network. I just wanted to make sure I understood, but is this from determination of the agreement with the Taastrup store and the closing of the Nettoline store in Copenhagen?

The Nettoline store in Copenhagen that there is nothing included in that, that was saying -- an agreement that was made with the dealer, so no cost in relation to that. It is coming from closing down the Svane store in Taastrup, which made the area available to a new store that has then opened Friday, the 4th of November in Glostrup. And as you might know, all our colleagues in the kitchen industry, they have moved their stores to this area in Glostrup that has been very attractive for customers to visit and therefore, we also wanted to have our Svane store located there. The ownership, it was a previous owner in Taastrup and it's a new owner in Glostrup.

Okay. And these costs -- are these losses on receivables or what gives rise to these nonrecurring costs when you close the store?

It is a part of the agreement that when we decide to close the store, there is a way to pay the previous owner out of his store in his area and his right.

[Operator Instructions] We have a follow-up question. The question come from the line of [ Fredric Cyon ] from Carnegie.

I hope it's okay. I jumped into the line again. I was also wondering, it's pretty impressive with the Norwegian growth or the growth from foreign markets right now. I was just wondering if you're seeing any of the same hesitancy in customer buying behavior in that market.

I would say, yes and no. When we talked to our dealers in Norway, they have the same concerns that we are seeing in the Danish market, and they hear the same from their Norwegian consumers. But in real money day, it looks like they are still placing the orders. And what I hear from other industries related to the kitchen industry, the market is behaving better than the Danish market, especially the end consumers, the private consumers.

Okay. Understood.

They talk more about their...

Sorry?

They talk more about their concerns than it will influence their behavior.

Okay. So it's not necessarily something that directly experiencing from consumers, it's more still on a concern stage.

Correct.

Okay. Understood. I was also wondering if you're seeing any changes to input costs, if any major categories has changed there?

Unfortunately, not yet. Prices are quite stable. I guess some raw material indexes have started to decrease but are still on a high level compared to maybe a year ago and at the same time, energy, electricity, transportation is increasing. So we haven't seen any changes on interest costs.

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Ulrik Bak from SEB.

A question on your cash flow and net working capital. So far this year, your -- the impact from net working capital has been negative by DKK 80 million and was around DKK 20 million in [ Q3 ]. Considering net working capital ratio to revenue has historically been negative. Should we expect to see a further increase in net working capital as volumes and revenue decline?

First of all, when you compare net working capital to Q4, so opening of the year, it is always at Q4, historically, you can say, the lowest negative net working capital balance we have end of Q4. So it's not unusual that you have a negative impact in cash flow in the beginning of the year. And then in Q4, it would be this year positive. Looking at the comparisons, of course, the inventory levels are higher. And in that sense, of course, some is driven by higher input costs compared to last year. But it's also because we have increased our buffer levels. We did that because of supply chain disruptions in general. And now that we see a stabilized supply chain, we are shifting back towards lower buffer levels, maybe not as low as 2 years ago, but lower than we are currently operating at. On the trade tables, we see also a negative variance compared to last year. We have -- as you can say, a mitigation of the high input cost we have pursued cash discounts to a greater extent than normal and we would probably see a normalization compared to last year during Q4 on that matter. So we would still -- we expect an improvement in the net working capital ratio compared to current levels in Q3, maybe not at back at historic levels at year-end.

Okay. So -- but it's speaking at the moment, do you expect net working capital to improve 12 months [indiscernible]

Yes. And also I think 12 months [indiscernible].

All right. Then a question on your net debt. Net debt has -- was DKK 335 million the end of Q3. And given that your EBITDA has come under quite a bit of pressure, your net debt to EBITDA now is at 2.5x. Do you have any covenants that you need to stay below? And what do you consider the risk to be if you exceed those covenants?

Yes. We have covenants, but we also have an expectation that we would be in line with our covenants in that sense. We have a dialogue with the bank on the impact from IFRS 16 in that sense to either look at the calculation method or look at the covenants, but we do not foresee that we will be in issues regarding the covenants. As I mentioned, net working capital will support cash generation in Q4. So that would lower the net interest bank debt.

Understood. Understood. Then maybe a question on the nonrecurring items and the change in your store network. Have you planned anything? Or have you done anything to any of your stores in Q4 so far in terms of shutdown? So -- and how would that effect? What kind of nonrecurring items would you incur if you would have to shut down a store.

Now I've only been in the company for 2.5 years, but I think we have -- we have never closed down a store like this before. And we have no plans to do so in Q4 or next year. I think the Svane store network in Denmark is pretty intact as it should be. But we had this correction from Taastrup to Glostrup as the market condition has changed over the years, and it was now time to do something about it. And there was a new build option in Glostrup because the area is fully occupied and hard to find a suitable location. But that came up as an option, and then we chose to utilize that option, but one of our friends to see this. So we don't foresee, we don't expect any other things to happen this year or in the future.

Okay. Understood. Then a question on your revenue. It was up 1% in Q3. Can you perhaps split that out into a price component and the value component?

Yes, you can say volume was relatively even compared to the revenue development. So volume was also up by 1%. So we had anticipated some impact from price, but that was offset by the sales mix, the change in sales mix. And that is due to 2 reasons. One is that the phasing in is faster on B2C, as I mentioned. And the other is that average prices are higher in B2C compared to B2B. So that has, you can say, a negative impact on prices. So offsetting the impact that we had from the sales price increases.

Okay. But volumes were roughly flat in Q3.

Yes.

And if you can elaborate about the current trading of volumes in Q4 so far.

The traffic to the stores and order intake to us is at a fairly normal level. We continue to see this change in sales mix, maybe not in the same level as September but still a change in sales mix but volume on a level compared to last year.

The next questions come from the line of Benjamin Silverstone from ABG.

I have 3, please. The first one is in terms of the Danish franchises. Are there any visible differences here in the critical performance within the market? The second one is in terms of Norway. Would you be able to elaborate on how much the organic growth was there. And the third one is in terms of projections for next year. Can you just remind us which factors you use to help budget for next year? I do recall, if I recall correctly, that you have been using consumer confidence. However, that is obviously quite volatile at the moment. So any other indications would be greatly appreciated.

The store performance in the brands in Denmark is clearly different from store to store. There might be kind of development that the stores in the bigger cities are performing better than the stores in the outskirts but there is definitely differences in performance of the stores. Norway growth, what was your question, Benjamin?

And just if you could specify how much organic growth was in Norway? So like-for-like for the existing stores?

The growth was -- we also had relatively significant growth same-store -- but of course, also the new store open...

The 3 new stores.

Yes. But when we talk about organic growth, that's included in both. So it's -- but driven by both factors, same stores and the new stores. Regarding indicators, the consumer confidence is -- I don't believe that's a valid indicator in that sense, of course, it has a sentiment that is important to look into, but it was also very negative in the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and turned out to be completely different when we look at behavior and actual demand. Of course, other KPIs as related to the housing market. So number of houses sold, housing transactions and new builds are important, and both of those are trending downwards.

We have no further questions at this time. I hand back the conference to you.

Thank you to all of you for listening in and asking questions to our Q3 results. Have a nice day.