Temple & Webster Group Ltd (TPW) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 19, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorThank you for standing by, and welcome to the Temple & Webster's 2026 Full Year Results Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mark Coulter, Executive Chair. Please go ahead.
Mark Coulter
executiveThank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Before we begin, I would like to take the opportunity to acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of country throughout Australia. On the call with me today is our new CEO, Susie Sugden; as well as our CFO, Cameron Barnsley. We will be taking you through Temple & Webster's financial results for FY '26, which were released to the ASX earlier today. Before we run through the investor presentation, I would like to warmly welcome Susie to Temple & Webster and to her first results call. While Susie started with us as CEO on the 1st of July, this actually marks a return to the company for her. Susie has previously been with us for about 5 years running various functions, including merchandising, marketing and commercial operations. It's been great having her back in the business, and I'm really excited to be working with her moving forward in the capacity as CEO. I'll now start with a summary of our FY '26 results on Slide 4. In FY '26, we delivered record revenue of $665 million, which represents 11% growth on FY '25. This result was delivered in the face of a challenging consumer environment, which continued to soften for the last few months of the financial year. In terms of profitability, we generated close to $22 million in EBITDA for the financial year, which is at the top end of our guidance range for May. This outcome represents a margin of 3.3% and when excluding significant items and unrealized FX losses was closer to $26 million or a margin of 3.9%. This significant growth in EBITDA was driven by improved unit economics through the fourth quarter as a result of the margin optimization initiatives that we implemented in March. We will talk to these more later in the presentation. Pleasingly, we have been able to make strong progress against our strategic priorities throughout the year. FY '26 marks the first time that more than 50% of our revenue was from exclusive and private label products and our growth adjacencies of home improvement, trade and commercial and New Zealand now account for well over $100 million of annual revenue. Despite variable market conditions, we are targeting EBITDA of between $33 million and $40 million in FY '27, which represents approximately 50% to 80% growth in FY '26. Now crucially, we are focused on returning the business to double-digit revenue growth, and Susie will be providing more specific details of these plans to achieve that at our upcoming AGM in October and our half 1 FY '27 results in February. I'll now hand over to Cam to take you through our financial and operating results in FY '26 in more detail.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveGreat. Thank you, Mark, and good morning to those joining us on the line. I would also like to take the opportunity to welcome Susie to the team. I'm really excited to be working together with you as we take Temple & Webster to the next stages of its growth. So welcome. I will start today by taking you through some of our operational metrics and milestones, and then I'll pivot to our financial results. Firstly, on Slide 6, our key performance metrics continue to trend well, demonstrating consistency in our execution. Active customers reached over 1.3 million for FY '26, up 5% year-on-year. As discussed in H1, we continue to be pleased to see improvement in customer cohort behavior, resulting in a greater proportion of repeat orders. Repeats comprised 62% of orders in FY '26, up from 59% in FY '25. I'm also pleased to note that our 12-month marketing ROI has remained stable at 1.4, whilst growth in our first-time customer acquisition cost or CAC has slowed year-on-year. Our new customer CAC for the last 12 months of 105 was lower than that same metric at 31 December. Revenue per active customer was up substantially to over $490, driven by higher average order values, particularly in H2. Finally, we continue to maintain a world-class NPS level of 60, demonstrating the strength of our customer proposition and experience. Moving on to Slide 7. Our ambition is to become Australia's leading furniture and homewares retailer. And to achieve this, we have continued to execute against 5 strategic priorities. I'm pleased to report that we continue to make strong progress across each of these during the year. I'll call out a few highlights from this slide. Firstly, in terms of our exclusive product range, continues to grow as a percentage of total revenue. For FY '26, private label and exclusive drop-ship was over half of our revenue, in fact, 51%, up from 45% last year. This is a great milestone. 83% of our top 500 selling products are now exclusive, up from 70% 2 years ago. Our dedicated sourcing office in Shanghai continues to deepen our relationships, and we continue to add many new and high-quality private label options to our customers. We also continue to trial and deploy proprietary AI-powered tools company-wide. We're focused on several key initiatives, including customer-focused personalization and agentic developed upgrades to our storefront architecture. We've also invested in new insights agents across our business, which are already driving commercial outcomes and helping to improve margin. Finally, our commitment to cost discipline is driving ongoing operating leverage. Fixed costs improved to 10.1% of revenue, a 50 basis point reduction from the prior year, which allows us to reinvest in growth drivers of price and marketing whilst maintaining a strong customer value proposition. I'll now turn to Slide 8 to talk through the performance of our adjacent growth plays. During the year, we've hit a milestone for our adjacencies, now contributing over $100 million in annual revenue. In fact, it was actually $117 million for FY '26, representing an increase of 30% in FY '25. From a Home Improvement perspective, this business continues to disrupt the category with a good quality, stylish and cost-effective range delivered with the convenience and customer experience that Temple & Webster is famous for. In FY '26, Home Improvement generated almost $60 million in revenue, an increase of 39% on FY '25, representing a 43% CAGR since the launch of this business in FY '23. Trade and Commercial continues to perform well despite the softer conditions, and the business recorded a pleasing $56 million of revenue, an increase of 16% in FY '25. Finally, New Zealand. This continues to be a really compelling opportunity for us. This $3 billion market expands our TAM by nearly 10% and serves as a proof of concept for future international growth. I'm really pleased to report that we've now generated $3 million in revenue from New Zealand, ahead of expectations, and the business is now run rating at contribution breakeven. We believe we can accelerate our revenue in New Zealand through some basic enhancements to the customer journey, including a dedicated domain and checkout, accelerated shipping time lines as well as focused local marketing. I remain excited about what we can achieve here and to develop ways to better serve our customers across the Tasman. Now turning to Slide 9 to talk through our financial results. As Mark mentioned at the start of the call, revenue grew 11% for the year to $665 million. This outcome was driven by higher AOVs, particularly through the second half as well as growth in active customers. And this result was in line with our trading -- our guidance range in our May trading update. At the delivered margin line, we ended FY '26 at just over $200 million, a margin of 30.2%. This outcome reflects higher promotional intensity through the third quarter, offset by an improvement in the fourth quarter. And this margin outcome remained consistent with our target operating range of 30% to 32% for the year. Pleasingly, a more disciplined approach to marketing and some efficiency gains realized in our digital channels have driven our marketing cost of sale down from 16.3% in FY '25 to 15.2% in FY '26. During the year, we also achieved material fixed cost leverage with fixed costs growing at just 5.5% versus revenue at 11%, which resulted in our fixed cost ratio declining from 10.6% to 10.1%. At the EBITDA line, I'm pleased to report that our underlying EBITDA, excluding unrealized FX losses, was $25.9 million, a margin of 3.9% and an increase of 28% over FY '25. This measure excludes our start-up investment into New Zealand as well as one-off costs incurred as part of our warehouse transfer in Melbourne. Reported EBITDA of $21.9 million was at the top of the guidance range provided in May, driven by stronger profitability through the fourth quarter as a result of our short-term rebalance between growth and margin. Finally, at the net profit after tax line, we did see an abnormally high effective tax rate in FY '26, which is the result of a reversal of our deferred tax asset relating to outstanding share options. This had no impact on cash flow. Our cash tax expense for FY '26 was $3.6 million, approximately 30% of PBT. Turning to Slide 10. I think it's worth taking everyone through the initiatives that we put in place during H2 and the impact that this had on our margin profile. As a reminder, we had 4 key initiatives in March in order to appropriately balance profit and revenue growth in the short term whilst we move through a difficult consumer environment. These changes have driven a permanent change in our unit economics and are expected to continue into this financial year. Firstly, we've made specific changes to our pricing structure and promotional cadence to improve delivered margin. Secondly, we've worked with suppliers to access greater promotional support as well as reducing the incidence of damaged and defective products, which result in poor customer outcomes. Thirdly, we restructured our digital marketing channels in order to implement category-specific bidding, which has resulted in a circa 10% reduction in CPCs, demonstrating true improvement in efficiency rather than just a reduction in spend. Finally, we made changes in the fixed cost base in order to drive $3 million in cost savings in H2 versus H1, primarily linked to automation and AI adoption. You can see the impact of these changes in the table on the right. In the fourth quarter, our run rate margin profile was materially higher than our overall FY '26 profile. In particular, our delivered margin after marketing costs ran at approximately 19% in the fourth quarter compared to an overall level of 15% for the full year. This run rate gives us confidence in our FY '27 target ranges of 31% to 33% at the DM line, 15% to 16% at the contribution margin line and then 5% to 6% at the EBITDA line. In fact, our fourth quarter run rate was ahead of these ranges, meaning that we do have some additional flexibility already. As Mark mentioned, we are targeting an EBITDA range of $33 million to $40 million for FY '27. And as always, we retain flexibility to use our price and marketing levers to best respond to conditions and drive revenue. Our long-term targets on margin remain unchanged. We continue to focus on scaling towards an EBITDA margin of 15% plus and what we have achieved over the last few months gives me even more conviction on this target. On Slide 11, we have shown our cash flow bridge for FY '26. We ended the full year with a cash balance of $123 million, which is a reduction of approximately $21 million on the prior year, driven by our on-market share buyback program through which we acquired $30 million in shares through the year. Having this strong cash balance and a capital management flexibility continues to be a competitive strength in the current environment. Our operating cash flow of $24 million represents over 100% of EBITDA. Note that our CapEx spend for this year was impacted by approximately $5 million of one-off setup costs for our new Melbourne facility and warehouse, where we have a 10-year lease. This will not reoccur in FY '27. Finally, turning to the balance sheet on Slide 12. Key takeaway from this page is that we continue to be in a really strong capital position with over $120 million in cash and no debt, plus a business that is generating good cash flow. On the right-hand side of this slide, we have once again outlined our capital management priorities, which remain unchanged. Maximizing shareholder returns is at the core of our long-term strategy and the lens through which we assess capital allocation. Our strong capital position means we remain fully funded to pursue organic and inorganic growth opportunities as well as other capital management strategies, including our buyback. Now a few housekeeping points for FY '27. Our expectation on depreciation and amortization for FY '27 is between $13 million and $14 million, up slightly from $12.9 million in FY '26. Intangible CapEx is expected to increase on FY '26 levels as we invest more in AI tools and customer-facing technologies to a range of between $5 million to $7 million. PP&E CapEx is expected to be approximately $1 million. Thanks again for your time, and I'll now hand the call over to Susie.
Susie Sugden
executiveThanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I'm so excited to be back at Temple & Webster. I rejoined after my time in private equity for a couple of really good reasons. The first is the experienced and innovative team. I know them really well, and it's a pleasure to be working with them again. And the second is this is a business with a huge growth opportunity ahead of it and a really consistent track record of execution against that opportunity. During the current uncertain operating conditions, I take a lot of confidence from having worked with the business both through good times and through more challenging times. I know that our consistent ability to move fast and to manage risk sets us up to turn these moments to our advantage. Let me start with the opportunity, which is bigger than ever. The total addressable market is $40 billion, furniture and homewares, home improvement and New Zealand. Even as the leading online retailer in our category, we represent just 2.9% of the furniture and homewares market in Australia and only a fraction of a percent of home improvement in New Zealand. There is a lot of room to grow. As the only at scale digital native retailer in our category, we are uniquely positioned to benefit both from increasing online penetration and as our millennial customers reach their prime purchasing years. We've built a significant asset in our customer and product data, which is now powering our AI, a brand and product range that our customers love and a bulky delivery experience they tell us is the best in the category and that we've built over 15 years. As the business has demonstrated over the last 6 months, our asset-light operating model enables us not just to pass on value to customers, but to move fast when others can't. On the next slide, I want to focus on what I've seen in my first 7 weeks and my initial views of some of the opportunities that are immediately ahead of us. First, reach. We are the #2 specialty furniture retailer in the country by spend. And within the last 12 months, 17% of Australian households in our core segment purchased from us. Our priority for FY '27 will be building on this reach to improve our brand recognition and overall share of wallet. Second, trust. We have always had market-leading NPS. Our customers are our biggest fans. We will build on that trust to further expand and differentiate our range so that we provide the quality, value and style that our customers expect with more of our own private label and exclusive products. I led marketing and merchandising while at Temple & Webster previously, so this will be a particular focus for me. Third, data and AI. Our retail reporting and data is the best I've ever seen, and we've already developed AI agents to access data and analyze it in natural language. This is just the beginning of AI opportunity. The next stage for us is to prioritize more customer-facing innovation, building on our industry-leading data to personalize their experience and improve conversion rates. Fourth, growth beyond our core. In the prior role, our biggest growth came from international expansion, so I know what this can add. Initially, we will be expanding our low-cost New Zealand pilot and qualifying additional markets where there's both the scale opportunity and market dynamics so we can build on our strength. And fifth, growth overall. It really is in our DNA as a company. While we're focused on improving unit economics in the short term, given the environment, these and many other growth initiatives are already underway. We're also shaping the longer-term strategy to develop both -- to deliver both top line and bottom line growth, and I look forward to updating you on it over the coming months. Finally, I'd like to give a trading update. Revenue year-to-date is down 13%. This is a result we expected, and we don't think it's indicative of the full year given that we're comping 28% growth and have a number of growth initiatives already underway. Importantly, over that same period, our contribution margin dollars have actually grown by 10%, which is a really strong outcome. This is deliberate. We've chosen to focus on improving our unit economics while the market is soft. These are my numbers and my team's numbers, and this is the right balance for this moment. But we are a growth business, and we want to finish FY '27 with strong forward momentum. As a result of the improvements in our unit economics, we are targeting a 50% to 80% increase in EBITDA to $33 million to $40 million in FY '27. This once again demonstrates the flexibility of our business model, and we'll be using this period to further invest in the foundation that will drive consistent top line and bottom line growth. As mentioned, we will brief the market on our strategy to return to double-digit revenue growth in the coming months. Our ultimate goal of becoming the largest Australian retailer in our category is unchanged. It's been a pleasure returning to Temple & Webster, and I want to thank Mark, Cam and the team for their warm welcome of me and their commitment to our collective success. With that, I'll open the line for questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from James Leigh with Goldman Sachs.
James Leigh
analystWelcome back, Susie. My question is around some of the assumptions going into FY '27 target of 33% to 40%. Can you help us understand kind of what economic conditions you're factoring there? I appreciate it's a wide range, but at the midpoint, it looks like 0 growth. Like what sort of kind of macro conditions we're thinking about in that guidance range or in that target range?
Susie Sugden
executiveI mean lovely to meet you. There are really uncertain conditions at the moment, and we're not guiding revenue. But I am really, as I've said, really consistently focused with the team on building strong momentum through FY '27. I think we mentioned in the call earlier, we're comping a really tricky period. It's 28% up year-on-year in the prior year. But I'm not -- I don't think the comps are the only thing we're focusing on. We're also focusing on what we can do internally. So big focus is some of the initiatives I've already talked about, which are underway, and we expect to have an impact through the year. The macro, it is very hard to forecast at the moment.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes. I think, James, probably thinking back to our May update as well. I mean, the market hasn't gotten any better since May. We haven't seen an improvement in the macro conditions since then. We're giving ourselves flexibility in that 33% to 40%. It's still an uncertain operating environment. And as Susie mentioned, we are expecting to see momentum build through the year, particularly as the comps get easier and some of these initiatives start to take place. So I wouldn't be focused too much on the trading update. I'd be focused more on what we're expecting to see throughout the entire year. I'd also maybe just call out Q4 as well, which I think is an interesting data point. I mean I did put that Q4 outcome in the deck, so people could see what the margin profile was after we made those initiative changes in March. And the Q4 period was pretty much flat year-on-year, comping at 20% in the prior year. So I think that gives you a real sense on what an outcome for FY '27 could look like that we're able to deliver those unit economics and margins on a flat revenue base against a very strong comp.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of James Wilson with Macquarie.
James Wilson
analystJust a few from me this morning, if I may. Just firstly, can you give us sort of a sense of the kind of EBITDA margin that you might be tracking at in this first quarter of the year? I appreciate your fourth quarter run rate was around the 6% mark.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes. Thanks for the question, James. Obviously, I am not going to give a running update on quarterly EBITDA performance. But I think you can see the Q4 update, you can see where we were at. Contribution margin dollars are up 10% for the first 7 weeks. I haven't seen anything that's too different to what we're run rating in Q4. So I'm not going to give quarterly guidance on EBITDA, but I think you can take that Q4 run rate and look forward into FY '27.
James Wilson
analystGreat. And just another one for me on your $1 billion revenue target for FY '28. Are we able to get an update on this aspiration?
Susie Sugden
executiveI'll answer that. And the goal for me isn't $1 billion. As we've talked about in the presentation, we want to be and have consistently said we want to be the largest retailer in this category. And that's not about $1 billion, it's about more than $2 billion. And I'll come back with more details on our plans to achieve that and to get us back to double-digit revenue growth over the next few months.
James Wilson
analystOkay, great. And then just one final one for me. Just on the sort of trading update that you've just reported. I mean, how much do you think that maybe some of your margin initiatives in the fourth quarter might have flowed through to the top line in this kind of first 7 weeks or first 8 weeks period of FY '27? Do you think there's been any drag at all on your top line from what you've done on margins in the fourth quarter?
Susie Sugden
executiveWe're really deliberately balancing margins and growth at the moment. And we think that's the right balance to take during what are quite uncertain macroeconomic conditions. We obviously have some flexibility in that margin. And I'm really encouraged by what we're seeing as our progress in building strong unit economics. This is what we expected for this period. And my focus with the team is on kicking off or we have kicked off initial initiatives, which will mean that we can drive both top line and bottom line growth, and we expect to be like finishing the year with strong momentum on that.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Forres Salekian with Barrenjoey.
Forres Salekian
analystCongratulations, Susie, on the role. I guess just first question from me. The feedback we've been hearing from most retailers we speak to is that they're pretty reluctant to take price in the current environment, and they're leaning harder into discounting to drive sales just given the softening in the consumer. So how are you thinking about balancing the near-term margin optimization story against protecting your value proposition? And I guess, how do you think this impacts your ability to return to double-digit growth over time?
Susie Sugden
executiveSo I think it's a really -- it's a great question, Forres, and lovely to be talking to you. I think my big focus with the team, as you've heard about, is about value, quality and style. Value has always been a really important part of Temple & Webster's DNA. And there are really -- while we have adjusted the price up in some portions of our range where we were probably a little bit too cheap, there are still really significant opportunities for value. There are portions of our range where we are 20% to 40% below what you see in offline retail. So I think that's a really important point to make. But also value is also about quality and style, the overall proposition we are offering customers. And I remain really confident that as the leading online category specialist that we are able to deliver customers a better offer all around than any of our competitors.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveI might just add, Forres, it's Cam here. Within the range that we've put out, the guidance range, we do have some flex to go harder if we need to as well. You can have a look at that Q4 run rate. The implied target ranges for FY '27 do have some room versus the run rate. So there is a little bit of ammunition there as well if we need it.
Forres Salekian
analystGot it. That's clear. And I guess to get top line growing again back to double-digit growth, like do you need to wait to see an improvement in the consumer to start reinvesting into marketing? Or are there other factors which could catalyze reinvestment to drive growth?
Susie Sugden
executiveNo, I don't -- we are not building our strategy around the macro, and I want to make that really clear. Like we are laser-focused on driving growth out of our core. And the 2 big initiatives we're focused on there are really around marketing diversification and making sure that we are getting the most effective reach into our customers and also around this range exclusivity and private label. So making sure that we have a really distinctive range and it's delivering across style, value and quality for our customers.
Forres Salekian
analystThat's clear. And if I could just squeeze in one more. It looks like a few of your peers like Wayfair, Castlery and now Kmart with K home have been pushing more into physical stores. How willing are you guys at this stage to pursue both via physical locations maybe as an opportunity to generate higher AOVs and more sustainable economics over time?
Susie Sugden
executiveI'm really excited about our brand overall. I have only been back a brief period, but I think there's some interesting ideas for us to look at there, but it's still very early days.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Aryan Norozi with Jarden.
Aryan Norozi
analystJust a few from me, please. First one, just one thing I'm trying to reconcile. So your marketing has obviously gotten more efficient. So you're spending less for the same amount of revenue growth and your pricing hasn't gone up to levels that makes you uncompetitive. Still don't get why the revenue growth has gone backwards. Like I mean in 2023, you've had 13 rate hikes and into fiscal '24, you've printed sort of 25% revenue growth. Like why is this time different for that sort of 3 to 4 years period, please?
Susie Sugden
executiveI mean I do think, obviously, there are some challenging macro conditions out there, and I don't think our category in general is finding that super easy. But I would sort of point to, we have increased marketing efficiency, but we've also scaled it back a little bit, and that's probably a big part of that revenue growth. And when we get to the right point where we feel like we've got the right unit economics on the customers that we're acquiring and that we are focused on the most valuable customer segments, we'll be able to increase that again.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveIt is aalso a bit of a different -- it's a different situation now versus 4 years ago, Aryan, but the environment is quite different.
Aryan Norozi
analystRight. Got you. And then just on capitalized intangibles, there's about, I think, $3 million or $4 million of annualized intangible capitalization versus what you were doing before this result. Is that a permanent feature of the business? And is that just shifting stuff out of cost into CapEx now?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveNo, it reflects a move towards developing internal AI solutions and technologies within the business. So we have ramped up that area in the last 12 months, and that obviously is reflected in the capitalization.
Aryan Norozi
analystGreat. Last one, please. Just on the exclusive, it's grown from sort of 49% to 54% of sales first half on second half '26, which is great. Just like is all of that step up the private label? And can you just give us an idea, please, around how big the private label part of the business is?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes, I can take that one, Arie. So we've talked a bit before about the private label exclusive drop-ship split. So private label and drop-ship exclusive has increased in the past 6 months. Private label is still roughly about 30%, but it has moved up slightly. And then the balance 51% is exclusive. So that exclusive drop-ship is still doing the heavy lifting, but both growing.
Aryan Norozi
analystIt's good to see that number.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Chami Ratnapala with Bell Potter Securities.
Chamithri Ratnapala
analystBig welcome to Susie. I think the first one would be on the delivered margin, given that it's run rating above -- slightly above the sort of range you've talked about, can you talk to how you're able to maintain this as conditions probably doesn't improve, get worse into FY '27?
Susie Sugden
executiveSo we are feeling really confident after Q4 on our forecast for FY '27. As Cam has mentioned, we have a little bit of flexibility in there. We're running a little bit ahead of our targets. And so we can use that as we're thinking about our promotional strategy going forward. The big things that will drive our margins overall is really around that price -- sorry, value, style and quality, so making sure that we are continuing to deliver the best range in our category as the leading online furniture specialist. Yes, that's the big focus for us.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveI think the other thing to think about, Chami, there is obviously the mix of exclusive and private label as that continues to trend upwards should support that. There will be a little bit of FX this year. It's obviously only 30% of our business private label, which is U.S. dollar denominated, but there should be a little bit of FX tailwind on that 30% as well this year.
Chamithri Ratnapala
analystGreat. And then how are suppliers or the drop-shippers taking the new changes for the fourth quarter profit optimization initiatives?
Susie Sugden
executiveGood question. And one of the things that I did when I first started in the business was sitting on a couple of our supplier meetings. It's a really important part of our business, and their growth has been a big part of our growth for the last 15 years. What I heard in those meetings was actually quite a lot of support from suppliers who thought that the measures we're putting in place prioritized customer experience and meant that the suppliers that were performing really well got prioritized on our site and in our business. So it's been -- while there are some -- it's been a big plus for us, I think, and for our customers.
Chamithri Ratnapala
analystGreat. Okay. Maybe if I could ask one more just on the fixed cost leverage. In a low revenue environment, what's the level of -- or what are the layers of efficiencies, further efficiencies to maintain the fixed cost leverage there in the guidance range that you're expecting for the year?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes. Thanks, Chami. I'll take that one. It's Cameron here. So look, we haven't assumed any real change in the fixed cost base as a percentage. You can see that guidance or that target range of 10% to 11%. So that's pretty consistent with where we were for FY '26. So we haven't assumed any reduction in that cost base into our FY '27 numbers. But obviously, that's a reasonable portion of our cost base. And if we need to take action on that, we will. But at this point in time, I think we're consistent with what we did in FY '26.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of James Bales with Morgan Stanley.
James Bales
analystFirstly, customer acquisition has slowed. I'd like to understand exactly how the economics of customer acquisition have changed. How much of it has been you guys proactively lifting the hurdles of what you think your return profiles should look like versus just the opportunity set that's out there with your partners? And then tying that into your earlier comments, Susie, around marketing diversification, how should that sort of change or move the needle on the returns that you see for that spend?
Susie Sugden
executiveYes. It's a great question, James. Thank you. It's been very deliberate. We've made the choice to focus on customers where we think we're going to get the unit economics that we need. And more broadly, you can hear in a lot of the initiatives we're focused on, it's about making sure we're focused on the most valuable customer segments in our sector. What we want to do in terms of diversification is really build on our brand, build on our strength in content and inspirational content and diversify our channel mix that way. And my expectation is that should continue to improve the effectiveness of our marketing and reduce the overall cost of sales.
James Bales
analystGot it. And then in terms of the outlook for FY '27, you're sort of starting with negative sales momentum early on in the first half. What -- when you sort of think about the pathway to get back to growth, how should we think about the time frame to get back to sort of being level with the PCP?
Susie Sugden
executiveWe're not giving guidance on revenue. But I can say that we don't think that the sort of initial trading period of this year is indicative of how the year is going to play out overall. There's a couple of reasons behind that. The first is we're comping 28% growth in the prior period. And the second is we're not just relying on comps. As you've heard, we have a number of initiatives already underway and strong margins to support us driving growth. So our expectation is we're going to finish FY '27 with really strong momentum leading into FY '28.
James Bales
analystGreat. Sorry, Cam.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveI wasn't going to say anything, James.
James Bales
analystAll right. And then I guess one other question was, you -- when we spoke following the May trading update, you seem very confident that even in a flattish sales environment that $40 million EBITDA was achievable. Can you just help me understand why you've moved the range to where it is today?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes, I'll take that one, James. So I will speak to you. Good talking. Look, I think there's -- obviously, the $40 million is still part of the range. So there's still -- we still have some belief in that target. I would just remind everyone that the range we put forward is 50% to 80% up on FY '26, which is quite a big increase. And the reason for the range is basically to give us some flexibility as we come into this year. As we go through the year, we'll be able to narrow that range and get more precise on it. But at this point in time, that range gives us real flexibility to be able to use our levers as we always do to drive top line. So $40 million is definitely still there on the cards and scenario running May. Not much has changed since May, conditions are still weak. But that range is giving us that extra flexibility that we want going into the new year.
James Bales
analystGot it. And then maybe one last one. You've had really strong momentum in home improvement and trade and commercial. When we think about the momentum heading into FY '27, how is the core homewares and furnishing business performing relative to that 13%? Is there a big divergence there? Or are they all sort of heading sort of moving together with the macro?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveI won't go into specific details on the different adjacencies and the growth rates. We'll obviously do that later in the year. It's -- the trading update 13% down is reflective of the overall business as our trading updates always are. And home improvement, B2B and the core have different growth rates as they always do. So we'll obviously update you later in the year as we get through the half on the different adjacencies and their growth rates.
Susie Sugden
executiveI'll just add that my priority is the core, and I think it's the biggest opportunity. We're still only 2.9% of furniture and homewares, and that's where our biggest dollar price exists. That said, we do have really meaningful opportunities in adjacencies. And so we'll also be working with the team to form up our strategies around that. But the priority for us and in the initiatives we've talked about is really on how do we make sure we take advantage of that growth at the core.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Sam Teeger with Citi.
Sam Teeger
analystWelcome, Susie. Susie, it would be good to get your perspective as to how the business has changed since you were here last. And what is your priority #1 for this year? What's the most important thing you want to achieve?
Susie Sugden
executiveSam, it's amazing coming back. I feel like it's a real gift to come back with a lot of familiarity with the business, but still fresh eyes. And I think the exciting thing for me is a lot of what has made Temple & Webster really successful up till now is still the same things that are going to carry us forward. So we're talking about building on our amazing range, improving our marketing effectiveness, all areas where we've really been successful before. We are going to use potentially slightly different tools and have been doing that over the last quarter. But at core, the objectives we have for the business is still the same. In terms of my priorities, really, I've talked a little bit about the biggest opportunity really is in growth at the core. The business is bigger now than it was when I was here last, but we're still only 2.9% of the market. There is so much upside. And that's the area that I really want to make sure that we nail this financial year.
Sam Teeger
analystAll right. And I appreciate you don't see it as indicative of what we can expect for the full year. But can you help us just unpack that revenue decline of 13%? Any comments around traffic, orders, conversion, promotions, customer acquisition would be helpful because there is a lot of interest in it.
Susie Sugden
executiveI'd just say that we are -- as I've mentioned, there's quite a lot of context there. First of all, the comp from the prior year. I think secondly, just the broader macro environment. The thing that I am most excited about looking at the numbers from FY '26 and that we're going to now is how our contribution margin is increasing. So driving margin dollars is ultimately how we will continue to deliver top line and bottom line growth. That's my big priority. We want to do both. Yes.
Cameron Barnsley
executiveI think maybe, Sam, just to talk about, I want to go back to Q4. And I think nothing has really changed since the update we did in May. Obviously, the macro is a little bit worse than it was, but it's pretty consistent. So I definitely look at that Q4 period as indicative of the first 7 weeks of this year as well. But noting that, that Q4 period we did do a pretty flat revenue growth on a 20% comp. July was abnormally strong last year. It was really flat.
Sam Teeger
analystIs the weakness more a function of traffic? Is it orders? Is it conversion? Within the sales, what kind of element is driving most of the weakness?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveSam, we won't go into all the different drivers. But what I would say is that through the last half, we did see slight weakness in conversion. You can see that in the numbers, like it's 2.9%, so it's still okay, but down from 3% the year before. So a slight weakness there. Traffic is still okay. People are still browsing, but there's just that a little bit more time taken to make a decision in this environment. And I think that is reflective of what was happening in July, but also what was happening in the last quarter too.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Garth Francis with MST Marquee.
Garth Francis
analystJust on the -- if you could just talk about the competitive environment that we touched on and specifically gross margin here. So gross margin was well managed, but was still down in the second half. You mentioned currency, then a little bit of a tailwind in private label. You're getting help from suppliers in terms of promotional funding. So are you having to self-fund promotions? And what does that mean to FY '27? Do you have to do something similar?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes. Thanks, Garth. I can take that question. I don't think the -- you made a comment there around self-funding promotions. I mean our funding of promotions is similar to where it was for the last half and last quarter as well. That sort of hasn't changed. On the FX piece, we didn't see much of a tailwind through FY '26 on FX because our hedge rate was below the spot rate. But going into '27, as some of those hedges have rolled off, we will see some tailwind from FX. It's not huge. So I'm not going to say it's contributing to significant margin improvement, but maybe 10, 20 basis points should come from an FX improvement. So I think more broadly, yes, the delivery margin was well managed. It's obviously run rating above 33% for the last quarter, and that gives us confidence going into '27 and the outcomes that we've put on in the presentation, the target ranges.
Garth Francis
analystGreat. And then you've highlighted in the presentation that at the AGM we're going to get some more detail around the strategy. Susie, you've alluded to a few of those things already. Why couldn't we get a full update today just in terms of what the strategic initiatives are? Is the AGM just going to be used as a progress report as well in terms of how you're tracking with those initiatives? And are those all in place? Or are they still being worked through and is that why you haven't given much color on it today?
Susie Sugden
executiveYes. I mean I've been in the business for 7 weeks, and it's been really productive 7 weeks, I think. The observations that we've put in the presentation are really areas that we want to focus on, and we will give an update, a progress update on those initiatives around the AGM. And there will likely be some additional areas that we sort of explore together with the team over the next couple of months and can talk about them as well. The idea would be that we're coming back with more of a strategy update at the February results announcement.
Garth Francis
analystOkay. Great. And then you also alluded in your remarks that the international markets outside of New Zealand were an opportunity. Are there any restrictions with your current platform into any markets you can't enter and which would be potential targets in your view?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveGarth, I might take this one. Look, there's no real restrictions on markets. I mean the main restriction, so to speak, is around product. So it needs to be compliant in different markets that we go to, which we have a team that knows that really well and can help with that. But there's no restrictions. It's more the product itself, is it the right fit for that market? Is the aesthetic right? Is the size right? We have such a broad range and such a differentiated catalog that there are products that will suit different markets in our current catalog quite nicely. But in terms of restrictions, it's more about where is the opportunity, where is there a gap in the market, where there's the right market size, et cetera.
Garth Francis
analystOkay. And then just in terms of the exclusivity, it sounds like there's -- you have a number of suppliers that are on the larger side. Is there a risk that as other retailers offer a marketplace and have a homewares SKU, because of Bunnings that your partners might look to also offer product on those platforms? And I guess the question would become how beneficial is it for them to be on Temple & Webster versus Bunnings or through another such marketplace?
Susie Sugden
executiveYes. Thanks, Garth. And I think it's a good -- actually, it's a good point to really emphasize. We've been competing with entry-level marketplaces since the history of Temple & Webster. The Kmart marketplace was previously Catch and we competed with it then. And what our customers tell us and what we know internally is that there's a real opportunity and a need for category-focused retailers. We provide a level of service, value and quality that generalist retailers can't really match. And we're confident that we're going to continue to deliver that.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of John Campbell with Jefferies.
John Campbell
analystWelcome, Susie, to the role. Just in terms of online penetration in Australia, it's -- we're well below comparable economies offshore. The U.S., I think, is probably around 35%. And has online penetration stalled in Australia? And if so, what do you think can really get it going again?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveI might take that one, John. Look, we haven't had -- we haven't got recent data on this. So there are certain data sources that we look at. The last data point we had for Australia was, I think, 21% online penetration. And you're right, U.S. penetration 35%, U.K. penetration is about 30%. So I look more anecdotally at other retailers who disclose online, offline. It's not always in furniture and homewares, but more broadly. I do think the online penetration story is still there and still growing, not just in our category, but in other categories. We just haven't seen the data, so to speak, to back it up. But certainly, anecdotally and looking at other retailers, I do think that online penetration march is continuing and obviously it's a tailwind for our business.
Susie Sugden
executiveWe've also had some customer research, which has talked about demographic segments that are more interested in purchasing online. And our core segments being millennials are much, much more likely to purchase online than older customers. And again, that gives us a bit of a tailwind as a business. As those millennial customers hit their prime purchasing years, that's going to be a structural upside for us.
John Campbell
analystAnd just in terms of the -- just to put it in context, the trading update so far this year, what typically would the first quarter represent of annual sales?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveThe first quarter is not our biggest quarter. Obviously, the second quarter of financial year is biggest with Black Friday, Cyber Monday. And then the fourth quarter is reasonably big with the June end of financial year sale. So the fourth quarter is less than 25% of the full year revenue -- sorry, first quarter is less than 25% of full year revenue. So yes, it is one of the weaker quarters in terms of the delivery to the overall revenue line.
John Campbell
analystYes. Okay. That's helpful. And just last question for me. The spike, I guess, you might say, in delivered margin in Q4, very high, well above the run rate for '26. And then the slight drop-off in marketing spend in Q4, is there any -- can you draw any dotted line between that and the weaker sales performance in the first quarter or so far in '27?
Susie Sugden
executiveYes, we can actually. Like it's been a very deliberate choice to prioritize unit economics. And our expectation is those changes are permanent. So we're building the foundation for profitable top line and bottom line growth. We want to, as you can see in the forecast that we have for FY '27, maintain those margins loosely in line with the established pattern that we had from quarter 4. And now I and the team are really focused on how we drive top line revenue growth as well, making sure we calibrate that balance correctly and also driving it through the range of marketing improvements we're talking about in the core.
John Campbell
analystOkay. So we can basically see the delivered margin, the higher level as a sort of a new line in the sand, if you like?
Susie Sugden
executiveYes. We agree.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Wei-Weng Chen from RBC Capital Markets.
Wei-Weng Chen
analystJust 2 questions from me. I guess the tricky part for me is with your trading, when you're going well and you're doing double-digit growth, the messaging is that you're taking share. But then I guess you gave us a minus 13% trading update. So is the reverse true? Are you guys ceding share, whether that's kind of on purpose or otherwise? And also, I guess, macro has been given as a reason for kind of some of the softer trading, but I'm kind of struggling with why Temple & Webster is so highly sensitive to the macro and what can be done to reduce this volatility?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveWei-Weng, I'll take the first part of your question on market share. So for the full year, our market share was 2.9% versus 2.7% last year based on the data that we've seen. We haven't got good data on July yet and August. Obviously, it's still in play. So we don't really know or have a sense on what market share looks like. I think if we go through this year and we're able to hold market share at 2.9% whilst increasing EBITDA 60% to 80%, I think that's a really good outcome actually. But we don't have a sense on what share running at through July at this point. And then secondly, your point around macro sensitivity, I don't -- I'll just remind you that the changes that we've put forward in March were a deliberate strategy, right, to balance profit growth in this environment. So the macro was one of the reasons why we thought it was prudent to do that. We still think it is prudent to do that. But it's not the overall driver. It was the decisions that we made to make this optimization in this period. So I wouldn't call it highly sensitive to the macro, but it was one of the reasons why we've put in place some of these initiatives.
Wei-Weng Chen
analystYes. Okay, cool. And then lastly, just on NPS. You've mentioned NPS a few times on the call. If I look at your Slide 6 -- your slide on Page 6, your customer satisfaction levels are actually at post-pandemic lows. I'm just wondering what is going on here? You've previously spoken to the benefits of AI customer service. Could falling NPS be a sign that AI service is actually hurting the customer experience?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveYes. Look, I think there was one abnormal thing this year, which was our Melbourne warehouse transfer. So we talked about it, we moved into new premises and that took about 6 months. And there was some -- as you do that, that's a pretty large project, and we can isolate some NPS impact from that. Outside of that period, NPS levels were stronger. So -- and there was a bit of a one-off impact on that NPS number of 60.
Wei-Weng Chen
analystOkay, cool. So your view with AI services, it's not impacting the customer experience?
Cameron Barnsley
executiveNo, not at all. I think we've said before that the AI tool has a really good actually higher NPS score than average. So we don't see that at all.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Owen Humphries with Canaccord.
Owen Humphries
analystI think most of my questions have been answered. Susie, welcome to the team or welcome back. One question I would just ask is just to understand how paid marketing moved in July relative to revenue growth. If revenue growth was down 13%, what was paid marketing down?
Susie Sugden
executiveI think the best guidance to give you just to have a look at how Q4 run rated through the end of last year, and that gives you a bit of a feel for our settings on marketing and margin overall. And those settings remain pretty consistent.
Owen Humphries
analystAnd I guess just on the unit economics. Is the unit economics now where you are you happy where they are in July? Is that -- given there's been a restructure?
Susie Sugden
executiveI think it's something that actually gives me a lot of confidence going into the year is that we've been able to adapt and improve our unit economics consistently over the last 4 months. So yes, very pleased with it. The next focus really is on how we get some of these initiatives we've been talking about to begin having an impact. So we are back and focused on double-digit top line growth.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Susie Sugden for closing comments.
Susie Sugden
executiveThanks, everybody, and thanks for spending your time with us this morning. I'm so excited to be back at the business. As we've discussed, these are uncertain times, but I am taking really positive confidence from the impact we've had on margins and unit economics over the last 3, 4 months. And I'm looking forward to talking with you all again about our plans for a return to double-digit top line growth and our longer-term strategy over the next few months.
Operator
operatorThat does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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