The Brink's Company (BCO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 15, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Edward Cunningham
executiveHello, everyone, and welcome to the Brink's Company's 2021 Investor Day. I'm Ed Cunningham, and I lead Investor Relations for Brink's. I'll start by thanking all of you for attending today's presentation and for reviewing the safe harbor statement that was on your screens when you logged into our webcast. Given that today's event is all about our strategic plan for the next 3 years, we're obviously going to be making some projections and other forward-looking statements. The risk factors associated with these statements are covered not only in the safe harbor statement, but also in this morning's press release, in the slide deck that was included in this morning's 8-K filing and in our quarterly and annual reports, all of which are available on our website at brinks.com. These documents should be reviewed in conjunction with the webcast. The financial targets and metrics we're going to share with you today are based primarily on non-GAAP measures, which we believe make it easier for investors to assess our past and future operating performance. These measures are described in detail and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in the slide deck that was posted to our website this morning. Our slide deck also includes footnotes and other information that support today's virtual presentation, all of which should be reviewed in conjunction with this presentation. At the end of today's webcast, we'll have a live question-and-answer session that will include all of today's speakers. We've got a lot to cover today, so let's get started. Doug Pertz, our CEO, will kick things off with an overview of today's agenda, our strategy and our 2024 financial targets. So thanks again for attending today. It's now my pleasure to introduce our CEO, Doug Pertz.
Douglas Pertz
executiveGood morning, everyone, and welcome to The Brink's 2021 Investor Day. I'm excited to share with you how we plan to deliver significant shareholder value over the next 3 years. But first, I want to express my gratitude for your past and current support and thank you for joining our virtual presentation. We prefer to be in person, but for everyone's health and safety, we'll look forward to getting together at some later date, hopefully soon. I also want to thank our more than 76,000 global employees for their inspiring commitment to our company and our customers, particularly during the pandemic. Together, we're achieving our pandemic-related goal for Brink's, which is to be stronger on the other side and positioning our company for even greater success as our customers and markets recover. The strategic plan we're rolling out today builds on our strong performance through 2019, which, as I'll show you in a moment, easily exceeded the targets we laid out in our first strategic plan. Our new plan outlines how we'll accelerate revenue growth and margin improvement and position Brink's to win across the evolving payments ecosystem. Brink's is the largest cash management and secure logistics company in the world, and we plan to continue driving profit growth from our base core logistics business, leveraging our strong #1 or #2 positions in all of our major markets. On top of that, we have an excellent opportunity to drive additional growth from a very large and untapped market that currently lacks an effective cash management solution, and we're confident we have that solution. And we're confident that we have the right team in place to execute our strategy and drive continued revenue and profit growth for our shareholders. Before we dive into our strategic plan, here's what Investor Day will look like. First, I'll share our financial targets, our overall strategy for achieving them and why I'm confident we'll be successful. Then Mark Eubanks, who recently joined Brink's as our Chief Operating Officer, will explain our plan to continue to drive organic growth and operational excellence throughout our global footprint. Mike Beech, who serves as our President of Latin America and oversees our operational excellence initiatives, will discuss how our past operational success and expanded Lean initiatives form a strong foundation for continued improvement. Rohan Pal, our Chief Digital Officer, will explain how our digital solutions work, how they differentiate us from our competitors and the innovative ways we're bringing them to market. He will be followed by David Dove, President of our PAI business and leader of our global ATM solutions, who will cover this fast-growing business and our managed services for financial institutions. Ron Domanico, our CFO, will provide details of our financial strategy and summarize our targets and expected shareholder returns. Ron will also cover our approach to sustainability, which is one of our highest priorities. Ron is leading our effort to expand our sustainability program that not only adds value to society, but also creates value for our customers and shareholders. Finally, I'll come back with the team for concluding remarks and Q&A session. So let's get started with our financial targets. Between 2022 and 2024, we plan to deliver underlying organic revenue growth of at least 7% annually. This excludes additional revenue growth of about 5% that we expect in 2022 as revenue recovers from the pandemic lows. We expect the underlying 7% growth to add over $1 billion of revenue over the next 3 years. And by the end of 2024, we're targeting an operating margin of 14.5% and an EBITDA margin of 18.5%, which is about 100 basis points of margin improvement each year. This will result in a total 2024 revenue of $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1 billion. We plan to achieve these targets by once again executing our strategy, which includes 3 key long-term objectives: To accelerate profitable growth, deliver operational excellence and introduce digital solutions. These objectives are all anchored by our winning culture. We initially introduced these long-term objectives in 2017 and have since modified them slightly to reflect the evolution of our business. They were underpinned by specific initiatives designed to accelerate organic growth and achieve financial targets that some felt were very aggressive at the time. This first strategic plan was also supplemented by an aggressive but disciplined approach to making accretive acquisitions. By the end of the plan period in 2019, we had easily exceeded our initial 3-year financial targets. Revenue grew 27% over the 3-year plan period versus an initial FX adjusted target of 16%. Organic growth averaged 7% per year compared with a constant currency target of 5%. Operating profit grew by 81%, a 3-year compound annual growth rate of 22%. The initial 2017 3-year plan target was to achieve an operating margin rate of 10% or an increase of 100 basis points per year. Our margin came in at 10.6%, 60 basis points higher than our initial 10% target and an increase of 320 basis points of margin over 3 years. And we delivered adjusted EBITDA growth of 66% over the planned period. That's the 3-year compound annual growth rate of 18%. During the initial 3-year plan period, we also completed 13 acquisitions. And since then, we've completed 2 more important acquisitions. In 2020, we acquired operations from G4S that significantly expanded our global footprint, which was already the world's largest. And in 2021, we acquired PAI, which was the largest privately owned provider of ATM services in the U.S. In total, we invested more than $2 billion in acquisitions in 2017. In summary, our recent history clearly demonstrates that our management team has a proven track record of setting aggressive goals and exceeding them. Today, we'll share our new strategic plan, which includes specific initiatives to help us achieve our 2024 financial targets. We plan to achieve these targets by continuing to deploy our 2 strategies that we refer to as Strategy 1.0 and Strategy 2.0, and we'll provide financial targets for each strategy that support our overall targets. Strategy 1.0 is about organic growth and operational excellence in our base cash logistics business, which drives the majority of our current revenue and profits and provides a very strong foundation for future growth and an excellent platform for introducing our digital solutions. Strategy 2.0 is focused on these digital solutions. It includes how we are using technology to digitize cash payments. And what I mean by that is we are providing solutions that enable our customers to process cash payments in a way that is easy as digital payments. With our digital cash payment solutions, we're transforming Brink's and our customer experience. And these solutions enable us to expand our addressable market and grow faster with higher margins. Our goal is to ensure a sustainable competitive advantage for Brink's and to position us to win in the payments ecosystem for many years to come. It's ambitious, it's transformational and it's the future of our company. It's the right time for us to make bold moves to deliver increased value to our shareholders. And I'm confident we'll be successful for several reasons. First, we've proven our ability to drive growth and profitability with the execution of our first strategic plan, and we're emerging from the pandemic with an even stronger company. Second, cash usage remained strong throughout the world, accounting for about 2/3 of all consumer transactions. That said, we recognize that the payments landscape is changing, and Brink's is changing with it. To be clear, we see the fast-changing dynamics of the payments ecosystem as a great opportunity to create significant value for our shareholders. The opportunities in the cash business are enormous. While e-commerce sales accelerated during the pandemic, this growth has slowed materially. E-commerce sales are expected to be less than 25% of all U.S. retail sales by 2025. That means about 75% of retail transactions will still be in person, where cash is a preferred payment method. Further, according to the Federal Reserve, even during the pandemic, more than 1/4 of all in-person transactions in the U.S. were in cash. And that number is much higher in many of the markets we serve around the world. For example, cash accounts for more than half of in-person payments in many markets throughout Latin America, Europe and Asia. In the U.S., according to the Federal Reserve, currency in circulation was up 9% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2021. The 30-year historical compound annual growth rate is 6%. In the eurozone, currency in circulation continue to grow in a similar fashion, reflecting a 9% CAGR since the inception nearly 20 years ago. It's clear that both recently and over the long term, the amount of physical cash in these major economies consistently grew faster than GDP. And as I just mentioned, over 1/4 of in-person transactions here in the U.S. are in cash. These trends indicate that cash will remain an integral part of the U.S. and global economies for decades to come. Despite the ongoing strength of cash usage, the overwhelming majority of retailers in the U.S. and around the world remain unvended by our industry. They simply do not have an effective and efficient solution to help them manage the cash that flows through their businesses every day. These unvended retailers presented a compelling opportunity for growth in digital cash payments, an opportunity that other cash management providers and other noncash digital providers don't have. We're confident that we have the right solutions to meet the needs of these unvended retailers. Third, Brink's is extremely well positioned to seize the opportunities created by rapid changes in the payments landscape. Merchants around the world are using new technology to simplify the payments experience and keeping with their customers' expectations. These market dynamics create a unique and timely opportunity to embed our digital cash payment solutions into the modern payment ecosystem alongside with cards and other digital payments. Before I bring up my colleagues, I'll leave you with this. We believe that our transformation will change the way our customers and our investors look at Brink's. Brink's is already the established global leader in cash management, and we have significant growth opportunities. Today, we'll see how our innovative digital cash payment solutions are poised to transform the customer experience and drive profitable growth. Thank you. And now I'll turn it over to Mark.
Richard Eubanks
executiveThank you all for being here today. I'm thrilled to be at my first Brink's Investor Day. I joined the company a few months ago because I recognized the opportunity to be part of an organization driving growth through operational excellence and innovation. Brink's is the world's largest cash management and secure logistics company, safeguarding and transporting cash and valuables as they cycle throughout the global economy. The essential services we provide are not only critical to the functioning of global central banks, financial institutions and retailers, they enable global economic inclusion for the world's most vulnerable populations, which include about 2 billion people around the world who are completely unbanked and even more when considering the underbanked. As the global leader in the $20 billion cash logistics industry, Brink's is uniquely positioned for success. On a revenue basis, we're almost twice as large as our nearest competitor. Our business is divided into 4 geographic segments. North America accounts for about 1/3 of our revenue and about 25% of our segment operating profit. Latin America drives about 1/3 of our revenue and represents about 40% of our segment profit. Europe accounts for 20% of our revenue and about 15% of our segment profit. And our Rest of World segment represents about 15% of our revenue and 20% of our segment profit. We have very strong positions in each of these geographic segments, improved by the core acquisitions that we completed over the last few years. Brink's is the market leader in both the U.S. and in France. We have strong #2 positions in Mexico, Canada and Brazil. And with the G4S acquisition, we now hold #1 positions in 13 of the 14 new geographic areas. The strategy of being #1 or 2 in a particular geography is purposeful. This is how we create customer and route density, which lowers our customer acquisition cost, reduces our nonproductive time and increases our fixed asset utilization, ultimately allowing us to better serve our customers and generate increasingly better financial returns. Brink's has done an amazing job of strengthening its operations and improving profitability over the past few years, yet we still have opportunity to build on that foundation and deliver step function shareholder value in the next 3 years. Much of what we're talking about today is how we expect to emerge from the pandemic and operationally stronger and more streamlined company. During the pandemic, we've invested heavily in restructuring to intelligently rightsize our business. We did this carefully to ensure that our company can deliver on our customer value proposition, but it also allows us to leverage a much lower fixed cost base as revenue returns. In recent years, we've used acquisitions to increase market share in countries where we currently operate as well as expand into new markets. Our acquisition strategy, along with our operational excellence focus, have not only created a platform for future organic growth and earnings leverage but has also created a catalyst for transformation as we now deploy our digital cash payment solutions across a larger footprint of 53 countries. Doug mentioned Strategy 1.0, which is our approach to driving organic growth and expanding margins with operational excellence. Now I'm going to dive a little deeper into our targets and how we plan to achieve them. Over the past several years, we've proven that we know how to grow both organically and through acquisitions, where our focus will be on improving service, implementing more strategic pricing and finding creative ways to identify and penetrate new customer segments. We also know how to reduce costs and flex our operations by eliminating process and organizational waste that does not directly add value to our customers. We will do this to drive sustainable and predictable cost productivity that allows us to improve margins and increase our competitiveness. We also know how to be more efficient with our capital spending by reducing our capital intensity through streamlining our footprint, optimizing our routes and rightsizing our logistics fleet. We have proof points of these 3 elements in various markets across the globe, but very few instances of driving all 3 elements consistently in any one country. Executing them across our global footprint presents a great opportunity for continued growth in shareholder value. Now let's dive in a bit deeper into revenue growth expectations. Over the past 10 years, the cash-in-transit industry, the major focus of our base business, has a proven history of dependable organic growth across all geographic segments. Since 2011, we've achieved organic growth of about 4% annualized, which excludes the highly inflationary impact of Argentina. We believe our organic growth is in line with our largest peers in our most significant markets in North America, Latin America and Europe. During our last strategic plan period through 2019, Brink's had organic revenue growth of 7% per year, which included Argentina. This also supports our expectation of continued organic revenue growth during this upcoming strategic plan period. With the continuation of our current organic growth initiatives, we expect to achieve comparable organic revenue growth of about 4% per year from our base business through 2024. We're confident we'll achieve this growth for a few reasons. First, we've built a solid operational foundation that helps us maintain our base revenues by reducing our customer churn. This is also one of the reasons why service, quality and a flow of innovative new services really matter. In fact, recurring revenue accounts for the majority of annual sales globally. Second, as the economy improves and more customers return to in-person shopping, we expect our volumes to increase proportionately as cash remains one of the most preferred payment methods around the world. Third, we see strong demand for outsourcing of cash management services in both the retail and financial institution customer segments. Additionally, our platform for organic growth is much larger because of our many acquisitions, including the majority of the cash operations from G4S, which we recently acquired for $860 million. As of today, we have successfully completed the integration of the G4S operations and are now in 14 new markets including in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, where we see particularly high cash usage rates. Finally, adding the digital cash payment solutions from our Strategy 2.0, and we believe we can do even better. Now let's turn to cost productivity. We're going to double down on our efforts to improve our margins. The initiatives we're focused on are really an extension of what we've been doing. Only now, we've planned to implement them on a more aggressive, systematic and consistent basis across the globe. We will drive our productivity and efficiency initiatives wider and deeper into the business by creating a more formal, best practices transfer mechanism and establishing a culture that demands that we get better every day, every week, every month and every year. We've identified more than 20 initiatives, many of which were looking to expand globally. The top 5 breakthrough initiatives include: Network and route optimization, crew productivity, branch standardization, money processing efficiency and fleet management. These 5 initiatives represent about 80% of our planned productivity improvements. We expect ongoing Strategy 1.0 initiatives to be the basis for annual margin improvement of 75 basis points per year or greater than $100 million over the plan period. Let me share an example. In 2017, we began to deploy 1-person crews in the United States, which has resulted in a cumulative margin increase of over 300 basis points for the U.S. business. This has allowed us to reduce our cost per stop and provided us with increased capacity to expand our routes. In other markets, we're developing repeatable process improvements across our cash logistics and processing operations. In some instances, we saw material improvement from simple changes to the layout of our processing centers within our branches. Other initiatives leverage technology to optimize and rationalize our routes, increase our density and improve our route scheduling. The key point here is that we have the people and the knowledge to create sustainable improvements. I'd like to take a few minutes to highlight why I have confidence in our ability to deliver the 75 basis points of annual margin improvement. One element relates to the productivity improvements in our cash logistics operations. For example, if we look at one of our top-performing operating entities where we have strong Lean and continuous improvement culture, over the last 5 years, this entity was able to achieve 30% improvement in one of our key productivity indicators, stops per working hour. The next largest countries achieved a range of negative 9% to a positive 25% productivity improvement over the same period of time, well below the 30% we achieved in our benchmark country. By further deploying Lean, building a continuous improvement culture and sharing best practices, we can improve productivity results in many of our markets to the benchmark level, driving cost savings and ultimately, margin improvement. We plan to implement these proven initiatives with training and an efficient business cadence across our global footprint. The success we've achieved to date gives us confidence in our ability to produce meaningful and consistent margin improvement. Turning now to free cash flow. We're going to improve our cash flow generation from our business operations around the world by first, reducing our cash CapEx to less than 4% of sales, by improving our commercial terms with our customers with the deployment of new digital solutions, by also improving our payment terms by expanding our strategic partnerships with global suppliers and reducing our ongoing restructuring expenses. And as the world's largest cash management and secure logistics company, we will accelerate our efforts and results by doing this at scale. We've traditionally functioned as an international company, made up of somewhat autonomous independent businesses, but we are moving toward being a more cohesive global company with consistent operations and a culture in which we learn from each other, recognize our internal successes, transfer this knowledge and then replicate success in a standardized way. This will allow us to take advantage of our footprint that spans 53 countries and to deliver more services at better value than our competition while still remaining locally relevant to our customers and maintaining our entrepreneurial autonomy. It also means we'll better leverage acquisitions that add scale and access to new customer segments or digital capabilities. Looking forward to 2022, we're going to build on our continuous improvement foundation and culture by deploying the Brink's business system. This is a continuous improvement framework that's focused on enabling growth and creating breakthrough efficiency gains. Our approach will be to ensure that every Brink's team member, including those in our branches, on our trucks and in front of our customers will understand how their role and their improvement targets contribute to our overall strategy and the future success of Brink's. That means everyone will be looking for ways to do their jobs better every single day. Together, we will grow the business, increase margins and improve free cash flow and in turn, build a better Brink's. Thank you.
Michael Beech
executiveI'm excited to be here with you today. It gives me the chance to talk about my favorite aspect of our business, operational excellence. Operational excellence is a critical part of our strategy and is expected to contribute significantly to our overall target of 100 basis points per year in margin improvement. I'm going to explain how we're driving continuous improvements and why I believe in the power of our approach, which is based upon Lean management methodology. Operational excellence is about empowering our people on the front line with tools and skills to improve their work every day. This is how we deliver major breakthrough initiatives at the country level, create more value for our customers and improve our margins for shareholders. This is about culture, a culture of continuous improvement, productivity and efficiency. We've built this culture in some of our countries, and now we're expanding it globally. The reason I'm so confident in our plans to meet our strategic targets is simple. Our proven success. I'll start by sharing an example with you. In 2016, our Mexico business was struggling with an uncompetitive cost position, low levels of productivity and a complacent culture. Our margins were only about 8%. We knew we had to change. So we embraced Lean and began to implement our continuous improvement road map, which use methodologies like Kaizen events, value stream maps, visual management and daily accountability. We work to understand the root causes of problems and empower our employees doing the work to solve them. Each year, they use tools to identify and deliver breakthrough initiatives, which transform their business. Today, Mexico enjoys a 20% margin with operating profit growth of 310% on a local currency basis since 2016. We improved all aspects of Mexico business, from money processing to transportation to fleet, collections, cash flow and more. We exceeded our Strategy 1.0 initiatives during the prior strategic plan period, and we expect this momentum to continue. The global deployment of Lean across the company, including the newly acquired G4S entities will be the foundation of how we immediately begin to improve our operations, our culture and our results. As with most transformations of this scale, change must start at the top. Our executive team has truly embraced Lean and their support of our cultural change has cascaded to our 53 country managers and functional leaders. Here are some examples. In Morocco, the team implemented route optimization to improve capacity of the cash management and ATM routes, reducing the total number of routes by 20% in one of our largest branches. The Czech Republic launched simple tools such as visual management to boost performance and cash processing. In the largest branch, margin improved more than 25%. Singapore improved efficiency, productivity and quality metrics across the operation, helping to support margins in excess of 20%. It's important to note that we don't have to wait years for results. We've demonstrated that improvements through Lean begin to produce results from the very beginning. It not only allows us to reduce cost, but it's also a growth lever. We use it to retain existing customers, recapture lost customers and acquire new customers. We're also using it to inform pricing decisions, market and customer segmentation and improve service and quality to enhance our customer experience. We also use Lean to support sustainability. For example, Brink's Brazil is using it to improve its impact on the environment, to deliver on short- and long-term goals. Even countries with an advanced Lean culture like Mexico still have tremendous opportunities to progress even further. In fact, this year, 3 of our countries in Latin America, including Mexico, took the next step in our cultural transformation by becoming the first countries to start implementing the Brink's business system. The Brink's business system builds on the foundation of Lean principles and supports our strategy deployment process and implementation. This is a process to align strategic objectives with specific breakthrough initiatives and action plans to achieve results. We link our strategic targets to our frontline actions and then closely monitor and manage our progress. We're also using operational excellence to maximize the profitability of our Strategy 2.0 digital cash payment solutions. Let me explain how. With our new solutions, branch managers can use operational excellence Lean tools to see when our retail locations need to be serviced. So instead of servicing the customer multiple times per week as we do with our traditional cash logistics service, we can reduce the number of service stops per week. This gives us the ability to add new customer locations without adding any cost. With these new solutions, we have an unprecedented opportunity to create operational capacity and improve our margins. We believe in the power of Lean, and we have brought on additional resources to enable global deployment. Jamal Powell, our Vice President of Operational Excellence, heads a global team charged with deploying Lean capabilities across all regions. We've already seen these investments produce short-term cultural, operational and financial results. And as impressive as our results have been to this point, I'm really excited about our future. From my foxhole, we're just getting started.
Douglas Pertz
executiveOur Strategy 1.0 organic growth and operational improvement initiatives provide a strong foundation for revenue and margin growth. Now I want to tell you about how we are adding a new layer of growth and profitability with Strategy 2.0, driven by our new digital solutions and ATM Managed Services. I'll start with an overview of our digital strategy and the very large addressable market for our digital solutions. Then Rohan Pal will explain how these solutions work and how they're gaining traction with customers. Rohan will be followed by David Dove, who will cover our growing ATM business and our plans to expand our management of these important consumer-facing devices, both in the U.S. and globally. He'll also discuss how we plan to continue growing our fully outsourced ATM managed services business with our financial institutions. As you'll see in a moment, there is a very large addressable market opportunity for our digital solutions. In the U.S. alone, it includes 1.8 million addressable retail locations that are largely unvended by our industry. This is a huge opportunity for Brink's. Let's begin with our digital cash payment solution. This solution offers both unvended and currently vended retailers a step change in value. And as you'll see, we have an innovative marketing strategy to turn unvended retailers into new Brink's customers. We're already gaining traction with our digital cash payment solution, and we see even more opportunities to integrate Brink's more deeply into the modern payments ecosystem. Let's take a look at our 2.0 strategy targets. We expect Strategy 2.0 to add annual organic revenue growth of about 3% to our top line over the next 3 years. And remember, this is on top of our Strategy 1.0 annual organic growth target of about 4%, supporting total organic revenue growth of 7% per year. In 2024, we expect Strategy 2.0 to generate incremental revenue of at least $500 million, equating to at least 10% of Brink's total revenue. Margins from our Strategy 2.0 solutions are higher than those of our base business and therefore, nicely accretive. We expect to add at least 100 basis points of overall margin per year, including 25 basis points from our Strategy 2.0. We showed you that the total market size of the cash logistics industry is approximately $20 billion. With our added layer of Strategy 2.0 solutions, we believe that global market opportunity increases by another $10 billion. In other words, we have a tremendous opportunity to accelerate growth outside of our base business, and we're well positioned to do just that with our strong global market position and new digital offerings. The centerpiece of our digital cash payment strategy is what we call Brink's Complete, which builds on the strengths of our global brick-and-mortar cash logistics and processing network. With Brink's Complete, merchants deposit cash into a Brink's-supplied device using our cloud-based app. These deposits are then settled in the merchant's bank account with advanced credit provided by Brink's. This makes processing cash fast and easy, offering merchants a digital solution for cash payments that is similar to debit, credit and other digital payment methods. While smart safes have been around for many years and offer some of the same benefits, they're generally only available for larger customers, are more expensive and require services from multiple providers. They also generate bank-related fees and are not integrated with other digital payment solutions. Brink's Complete changes all of that. We are disrupting the cash management industry by providing a digital cash payment solution that meets the wide-ranging needs of retailers of all sizes as well as financial institutions, all from one provider. Think about it. In today's global marketplace, most merchants already have a digital solution to accept cards and other digital payments, but they don't have a digital solution to manage their cash payments, which account for 2/3 of global consumer transactions. Imagine if you could equip these businesses with a digital solution that makes managing cash as easy as managing cards and e-payment methods. This brings me back to the potential market opportunity that Brink's Complete opens up for us to serve new customers and change how we serve existing customers. And as we grow the number of locations served, we'll leverage our existing global brick-and-mortar with higher volumes, but materially fewer stops. This means materially lower capital expenditures, fuel, maintenance and labor cost. Brink's Complete increases our market opportunity around the world. I'll use the U.S. as an example. We've previously cited that there are 3.8 million retail locations in the U.S. Of that, we estimate an addressable market of 2.2 million retail locations with a monthly cash volume of more than $5,000. The entire cash management industry in the U.S., including Brink's, is estimated to service only about 400,000 or 18% of these locations. This is the first segment we're targeting with our digital solutions. It includes current CIT and smart safe customers. About 1/3 of these locations are already Brink's customers, so they're prime targets for adopting our high-value digital cash payment solutions. This leaves 1.8 million or more than 80% of addressable locations in the U.S. that are either underserved or completely unvended by our industry, a huge untapped market for our digital cash payment solution. And this is what we refer to as the large white space opportunity that was previously unavailable to us because we didn't have a value-added solution that suited their business needs. On average, 28% of in-person payments are in cash. That means many merchants are walking or driving their cash to their banks, paying bank fees, having their employees spend more time handling cash, incurring losses and not optimizing their working capital. The underserved segment is comprised of large retailers and accounts for about 220,000 or 10% of all U.S. addressable location. Underserved retailers are generally very sophisticated and have hundreds to thousands of locations. They accept debit and credit cards, but have not yet adopted an outsourced service for accepting or processing cash at many or all of their locations. For years, I wondered why so many successful retailers have chosen to forego using the services of our industry. And I further wondered what it would take to have them use our services until now. With our digital cash payment solutions, we are well positioned to serve thousands of additional unvended merchant locations. If we were to convince just 1/3 of these underserved locations to use our digital solution, this alone would increase the number of our U.S. retail locations that we serve by more than 50%. The rest of the addressable U.S. market, another 1.6 million merchant locations or more than 70% of the total is completely unvended by Brink's or any of our competitors. Many of these locations are small- to medium-sized businesses. They accept debit and credit cards, but they don't have a safe and effective method of handling or processing cash until now. Bottom line, there's a very large untapped white space opportunity for our digital cash payment solutions in the U.S., comprised of over 1.8 million potential locations. In total, we think the U.S. addressable market opportunity for our Brink's Complete solution in the underserved and unvended customer segment exceeds $5 billion. And while we're not suggesting that all these locations will become vended, for every 1% of increased penetration in this market, we would add 18,000 merchant locations. And that's just in the U.S. We're also working to deploy Brink's Complete across our global footprint, offering merchants around the world a digital solution that makes accepting cash as easy as accepting digital payments at a compelling value. The payments landscape is evolving and so are we. Brink's Complete is a step change in cash management, and we're just getting started. Our vision is to make Brink's a digital payments company focused on digital cash payment solutions. Our industry is ripe for innovation, and it's time we make bold moves to transform the customer experience. It's time to unlock our potential. And on that note, I'll turn it over to Rohan.
Rohan Pal
executiveYou heard from Doug about the large market opportunity that our digital cash payment solution unlocks. Now I'm going to talk about 2 step changes that we are driving at Brink's. The first is our new digital cash payment solution called Brink's Complete, that greatly simplifies how merchants manage cash. The second is how we're bringing that solution to market. Let me begin by explaining what Brink's Complete is and how it works. Brink's Complete is a subscription-based recurring revenue service that consists of 4 key components: a digital app, a tech-enabled low-cost device, next day credit for cash deposits and cash and coin delivery. Here's how it works. We place a secure tech-enabled device on a customer site. The customer registers their cash deposit using our mobile app and deposits their cash into their on-site device. We digitally confirm that the deposit was made, and we provide credit for that deposit to any bank account of the customer's choosing and Brink's picks up the cash at a later time that is convenient for both parties. Let me describe what this means for customers. Brink's Complete gives customers quicker access to their deposited funds compared to traditional cash and transit services that require that they wait until the funds are collected and counted several days later. And the ability to make the deposit on-site eliminates labor-intensive and sometimes risky trips to the bank. Instead, Brink's brings the bank branch to you, which is safer, more convenient and maximizes productivity of store employees, so they can spend more time with customers. With Brink's Complete, we can provide credit to the customer's bank anywhere from any location. So customers can bank where they want and consolidate cash deposits from all of their locations into a single bank account if they choose, reducing fees and other administrative expenses. Brink's Complete offers a complete service from a single provider, eliminating tri-party agreements with banks, OEMs and CIT providers and the costs associated with managing multiple parties. That's simpler deposits, faster access to working capital, easier cash management, new value for retailers. Given the size of the underserved and unvended markets that Doug described earlier, we saw an opportunity to create a step change in value by developing a digital cash payment solution for merchants, large and small, significantly expanding our addressable market. So we designed Brink's Complete to be scaled up or down to suit a wide range of businesses and cash volumes. This includes a Brink's Complete solution targeted for malls and other locations with multiple customers who would benefit from a shared solution. This helps us reach the lower end of the unvended market. In short, Brink's Complete makes cash as quick and as easy to manage as card and mobile payments. Let me share some real life examples. Let's start with a few of our current cash-in-transit customers. First is DICK'S Sporting Goods. We have been providing cash logistics services to many of their locations. And now with Brink's Complete, we have an opportunity to enhance and expand our relationship with them. We have a pilot program underway with DICK's and they like the next day credit and the reporting and tracking visibility, according to DICK's Treasury Manager, Mike Pohl. Another Brink's Complete customer is Bob's Discount Furniture. Bob's is also a former cash-in-transit customer. Now we are on track to provide digital cash management services to all 150 stores in 24 states. Our service is allowing their employees to spend more time with customers and less time managing cash, according to Vice President of Store Administration, Debbie Brown. I'll now shift to our underserved segment. We recently signed a 5-year agreement with a large national retailer, Five Below. We did a 50-location pilot in the summer with them. They signed a 5-year agreement in September to implement Brink's Complete in all of their 1,100-plus locations plus future stores during the contract period. And we already have Brink's Complete up and running in 600 locations just in time for the holidays. We are finalizing an agreement with another large underserved retailer with thousands of locations that has been looking for years to find an integrated cash and check solution from our industry until now. Brink's Complete provides the solution they are looking for and can simplify their cash management processes. We currently have pilots with 10 other underserved national retailers, representing a potential of 25,000 to 30,000 locations at full adoption. Of these locations, we estimate that less than 10% use a cash logistics company today. We have a good track record of converting pilot customers to customers with signed contracts for multiple locations. If we were to convert even 50% of these customers with pilots already underway, it would bring $50 million to $70 million in incremental annual revenue. While we were initially focused on our existing markets, we've generated a lot of interest and won contracts with the third category of customers that we did not serve prior to Brink's Complete, merchants that are completely unvended. These are small to midsized businesses that also need a way to manage the cash they've taken from customers. Recent wins include contracts with regional health care providers, technology retailers and several quick-serve restaurant franchisees, all with locations at lower cash volumes. A great example of this is Talk More Wireless with more than 130 locations. They're planning to implement Brink's Complete across their locations because it will allow them to work with a single vendor for cash management, simplifying the whole process. This now leads me to our second major step change. Our go-to-market strategy to reach the 1.6 million completely unvended locations in the U.S. Virtually, all of these merchants are fully vended by payment companies that sell debit and credit payment solutions, but they don't have a solution for managing cash. And yet in the U.S., 28% of in-person transactions are done in cash. So we're creating commercial partnerships with the payment companies to leverage their sales channels and their relationships with these merchants. This enables our partners to add a new revenue stream from cash by offering a total payment solution to their customers. We are executing 2 partnership strategies. The first is what we call the merchant payment bundle, which is focused on going to market through third-party payments companies. It enables them to offer a payments bundle that includes their current offering for card acceptance with the Brink's cash payment solution. We have a partnership agreement with Priority Technology Holdings, a leading nonbank merchant acquirer that serves more than 235,000 merchants in the U.S. Priority's Chairman and CEO, Tom Priore says that 20% to 25% of their customers' payments still occur in cash, and they had no way to help their customers manage cash prior to the partnership. Expanding their reach into cash payments means Priority can introduce new solutions into the market, which helps improve customer retention and drives growth into new channels. We're also partnering with FIS, a leading provider of technology solutions for merchants to offer their small and midsized merchants our cash management solution. In our second partnership strategy, we actually integrate our digital cash payment solution into some of the leading point-of-sale solutions used by merchants today. By integrating our solution into the POS, merchants get all of the benefits of our digital cash payment solution with enhanced real-time visibility of cash and the ability to make on-site cash deposits that settled just as quickly as digital payments. We're working to integrate with several major POS providers with availability set for 2022. This partnership strategy is a step change for merchants. They no longer have to think of cash separately from digital payments. They will now be able to process cash similarly to how they process debit and credit. And this customer segment is very digitally minded from the buying experience to the delivery of services. So we have also created a new product brand to support it. We're branding our new partnership solutions as BLUbeem by Brink's. BLUbeem is a digital extension of the Brink's brand. We believe BLUbeem builds upon our strong heritage but signals an evolution, which will accelerate our efforts to establish a digital identity for Brink's. The unvended market for cash is large, and our innovative go-to-market strategies will drive faster adoption by unvended businesses and solidify our position as a provider of digital cash payment solutions. These digital solutions enable us to be a single source for all of our customers' cash management needs. We think that's pretty exciting and will provide a strong base for future growth, well beyond the 2024 strategic plan period. And now, I'll turn it over to David. He will talk about another aspect of Strategy 2.0, which is our initiative to grow our share of global ATM-managed services and consumer-facing cash terminals.
David Dove
executiveATMs are the most popular and frequently used access point for cash in the vast majority of the developed world. In this way, they serve as both an on-ramp for pushing cash into the economy and an off-ramp for moving cash into a digital form factor. Right now, Brink's owns, operates or manages more than 100,000 of these consumer-facing terminals in the United States and has installed or is under contract for another 11,000 outside of the United States. And this business has grown significantly over the past 2 years. We expect these numbers to continue growing as market data points to increased outsourcing activity by financial institutions, driven largely by the opportunity to reduce cost and complexity. More than 50% of the global ATM footprint is owned and operated by financial institutions. And as a result, we anticipate significant secular tailwinds in this segment. To elaborate, the global market for ATM-managed services is estimated at $7.5 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow to $10 billion by 2027. Brink's is well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity by building on established and strong relationships with financial institutions and retailers across the globe, where we already perform many of the functions embedded in ATM-managed services solutions. We have already leveraged these relationships with early and fairly significant successes in the United States and Europe. In France, BPCE is the first major bank group to outsource their entire network of ATMs, more than 10,000 in number. Over the course of the 10-plus year recurring revenue contract, we expect $60 million annually, ramping up in 2023 and continuing for the next several years. As lead partner, Brink's has the capabilities and expertise and has built the infrastructure and organization to integrate and service the group's various ATM portfolios in an end-to-end solution. The Brink's partnership allows the bank group to optimize their cost structure by leveraging the scale economies and improved operations delivered by Brink's, as well as redirect their capital spending from ATMs to other areas of importance to them. The infrastructure we have built can be leveraged on a broader regional basis for other customers as well. In the U.S., Brink's is the only provider that offers a full store cash ecosystem solution, managing retail-based ATMs as well as providing cash management services at the point of sale, a single infrastructure that encompasses all cash management within the store. Retail environments are important to us because many remain cash-centric, convenient access points for consumers to get cash as well as collection points for consumers who spend any part of that cash in the store. Additionally, financial institutions rely on high-traffic retail venues to serve their customers' cash needs through ATMs, particularly when these high-traffic venues cater to underbanked individuals. Royal Farms, a growing convenience store operator in the Mid-Atlantic is an example of this. Royal Farms became a Brink's customer through the acquisition of PAI, which was the largest privately owned provider of ATM services in the United States. Royal Farms selected PAI to provide both a turnkey ATM solution, along with a bundled solution for store cash management services through a single infrastructure. Many of these ATMs have been branded by financial institutions to broaden their footprint and reach more customers. As you can see, our solution is cost effective and efficient for Royal Farms. Now as one company, Brink's and PAI combined turnkey ATM and cash logistics services, along with advanced credit, all bundled into a single price that delivers superior economics to the retailer. In addition, we have an ATM portfolio management technology package that delivers real-time visibility and control to us and our customers. We're also adding products to our ATM estate that drive consumer transactions and asset productivity. For example, we have enabled almost 7,000 ATMs in our U.S. network to offer consumers the ability to purchase Bitcoin. We are also integrating Brink's money prepaid card products, including general purpose reloadable, paycard and expense card into our ATM business to improve both the value proposition for retail customers as well as drive more Brink's Money cards into the hands of consumers. Not only does this improve our ability to monetize our ATM fleet, but it also adds stickiness to the customer relationship. As I wrap up, I'd like to reiterate that the expanding global market for ATM-managed services presents a significant opportunity for Brink's. Our ATM service extends beyond the terminal to combine cash logistics, device management, transaction processing, cash forecasting and technology into a unique solution that offers fully integrated cash ecosystem management. We are leveraging the talent and resources of PAI and are expanding customer footprint around the world to build an execution capability that is global in scope. Having a strong local market presence supplemented by center of excellence model will further improve our competitive differentiation and drive superior value to our financial institution and retail customers. We have built the capability, infrastructure and expertise to participate in the broader outsourcing trends emerging as financial institutions reevaluate their core competencies and work with trusted partners to optimize their operations and capital investments.
Ronald Domanico
executiveGood day, everyone. Brink's has a great heritage and has served generations of customers. We're proud of our past and are committed to be equally proud of our future. We're keenly focused on transforming Brink's. And as we do, we're continuously improving our operations and building a culture that aligns with our values, integrating responsible practices across our operations and increase our efficiency and reduce waste. This work has been formalized into the Brink's sustainability program. The Brink's Board has oversight of our sustainability program. And shortly, you'll be hearing from 2 of our directors on topics that they're especially passionate about. But before we do, I want to tell you about the progress on our sustainability journey. Early on, we developed a road map to optimize Brink's sustainability initiatives and disclosures. We also signed the United Nations Global Compact, and we pledge to support CEO Action for Diversity & Inclusion. We also hired a diversity expert and a dedicated leader for diversity and inclusion, and we've extended our women's employee resource group outside of the U.S. and added ERGs for Black, Asian-American and Pacific Island and veteran employees in the U.S. We intend to add more groups and expand globally in 2022. We've been reducing our environmental impact by modernizing our fleet, taking thousands of diesel trucks off the road, implementing dual fuel and alternate fuel vehicles and continually optimizing routes to minimize distance driven. Our Strategy 2.0 solutions target not only increased customer service, but also a major reduction in weekly stops. That could take many more trucks off the road. And while we're very proud of our progress in these areas, what I want to focus on today is Brink's social impact. One of our most compelling roles is that of facilitating economic inclusion. While for each of us cash is a convenient, private and safe payment alternative, for many others it's the only payment alternative. In the United States, about 18% of the population is unbanked or underbanked, and they rely on cash. We estimate similar demographics for other developed countries. But the reliance on cash is much higher in developing countries. Mexico, Brazil and the Philippines are just 3 examples where over half of the in-person transactions are in cash. As the world's largest cash management company, Brink's has a critical role in facilitating the global cash ecosystem to serve everyone, but especially the most vulnerable. For this reason alone, I believe that BCO belongs in every impact investor portfolio. To share more about Brink's social impact is Brink's Board member, Louis Parker.
Arthelbert Parker
executiveI wholeheartedly support Brink's position regarding the importance of cash inclusion. As a career business person, I've never understood why any business would choose to forego a source of revenue by excluding a payment method such as cash or cards. If 20% of our retailers' revenue comes from cash, why would they opt out. In addition to foregoing a source of revenue, businesses that don't accept cash are actually practicing de facto discrimination against our most vulnerable community members, including the elderly and the poor by excluding them from the purchase of basic necessities.
Ronald Domanico
executiveAnother Brink's Board member, Susan Docherty, will share her thoughts about our focus on the environmental pillar of ESG.
Susan Docherty
executiveWhen I think about how Brink's can make less of an impact on the environment in terms of our fleet, I see it mostly falling into 3 categories: Changes to our vehicles, changes in our fuel consumption behavior and changes to our routes. Let's start with our fleet. While electric vehicles are one option for our fleet, they are not the only option. Globally, we are exploring alternative fuel systems for our vehicles, which include natural gas, propane and electric. Changes in our fuel consumption. While we are exploring options for electric vehicles, we need to remember that in the U.S., fossil fuels still comprise about 60% of electricity generation, and renewables currently only comprise just under 20%. Another way we are looking at fuel is by exploring different fuel options in different markets. What works best in one market may not make economic sense in another. And now for my last point, changes to our routes. As a Board member, we are very excited about Brink's Strategy 2.0, digital cash management. This strategy creates benefits to the business by allowing us to reduce the number of stops we make per customer, optimizing our routes, which benefits the environment.
Ronald Domanico
executiveSusan discussed our focus on improving the environmental impact of our vehicles, but we have many other initiatives to reduce Brink's environmental impact. For example, in the U.S., instead of using new tires, we've switched to retread tires. They carry a manufacturer's warranty and according to multiple DOT studies are as safe as new tires. From an environmental perspective, retreads use 68% less oil to produce. From a business perspective, we save hundreds of thousands of dollars each year. In Ireland, the U.K., Singapore, Japan and the UAE, we put in operation dozens of vehicles equipped with solar panels with another 75 in queue across our global footprint. The solar panels are projected to save 580 liters of fuel and reduce 1.5 metric tons of CO2 emissions per vehicle per year. In Morocco, the Brink's team transitioned plastic waste to profit by selling it to a company that uses it to manufacture flexible irrigation systems for farming, a double win for the environment. And in Brazil, we completed construction of a green branch that incorporates solar panels, wastewater collection and reuse and a combination of LED and natural lighting. This has led to multiple certifications, including LEAD, ISO and Brazilian habitat productivity. Brink's environmental initiatives also benefit our customers. As we reduce our environmental impact, our customers get credit for reducing their Scope 3 emissions. Moving now to governance. Brink's has an exceptional risk management, an uncompromised commitment to sound governance. It promotes a culture of accountability, integrity and trust. Nevertheless, we're taking our already robust governance policies and risk management practices to the next level. As a stakeholder, you may be concerned about the cost of our sustainability initiatives. Well, the truth is that sustainability is not a cost. It's an investment. It's an investment in our future with positive economic returns. Sustainability is not just another corporate program, it's a part of who we are at Brink's, stewards of the resources that are entrusted to our care, not only cash, precious metals, diamonds and jewelry, but stewards of our communities and of our planet. I'm excited about the Brink's Sustainability Program. We'll share progress updates on our website and expect to issue a sustainability report in 2022. Together, we're empowering a sustainable future. With that, I'll put my CFO hat on and walk you through our financials. Brink's value creation strategy is pretty straightforward and proven successful. In fact, just as we did during our first strategic plan from 2017 to 2019, our current strategic plan is targeted to return shareholder value that is around the top 10% of the S&P 500 and would translate into a 20% compounded annual total shareholder return through 2024. Value creation starts with establishing and building credibility. It involves reducing complexity and increasing transparency to distill the business to its key drivers and provide visibility into the performance of those drivers. Credibility is earned by setting aggressive targets and developing a consistent track record of meeting or exceeding them. Finally, credibility extends beyond what we do to how we do it. Our corporate culture, our values and our stewardship of all that's entrusted to us define who we are. The second building block of Brink's value creation strategy is growth. The most profitable growth is organic, and the most profitable organic growth comes not from competing for market share in existing markets, but from penetrating unvended markets. And as you've just heard, there are massive unvended markets for Brink's cash management services in retail and further opportunities in financial institution outsourcing. And our new proprietary digital cash payment solutions are an important driver of profitable growth potential. Concerning inorganic growth, we continue to evaluate acquisitions that could accelerate the timing and increase the impact of our strategies. The third building block of Brink's value creation strategy is margin expansion, which is driven by continually developing operational excellence. We have a history of pricing execution that outpaces inflation. We are accelerating Lean implementation throughout our global footprint and we are translating best practices gleaned from our first strategic plan wider and deeper across the organization. During the pandemic, we executed sweeping cost realignment initiatives that are delivering operating leverage as revenue recovers and grows. Our margin expansion focus goes beyond operating profit to optimize taxes and interest expense and deliver compelling growth in net income and earnings per share. The fourth building block of Brink's value creation strategy is returns. It takes investment to drive growth and expand margins. And it's critical that we consistently generate a return on that investment that exceeds our weighted average cost of capital, far exceeds. More than anyone, at Brink's, we believe that cash is king. We are focused on cash flow and cash conversion. The improvement in our first strategic plan was commendable, but nothing compared to our cash flow targets over the next 3 years. We're cognizant of our financial leverage, and we believe that 3 turns of leverage, plus or minus a half turn, optimizes returns for our shareholders. We prioritize our capital allocation among capital expenditures, accretive acquisitions and returning cash to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Finally, we believe that we can materially increase shareholder value as Brink's migrates from a cash and transit multiple to a route-based industrial service multiple and, aspirationally, to a payments multiple. Let me highlight several important achievements of our first strategic plan. We set aggressive targets and exceeded them. Revenue grew 8% annually, operating profit grew 22% annually, adjusted EBITDA grew 18% annually and EPS grew 19% annually, all in the face of material foreign exchange headwinds. The operating profit margin grew 320 bps to 10.6%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin grew 370 bps to 15.4%. We demonstrated our grit and credibility through the pandemic. We provided essential services to sustain the global cash ecosystem, while keeping folks safe, preserving cash and positioning Brink's to emerge as a stronger company. And through that, we more fully realize the critical role that Brink's serves in enabling economic inclusion. Before I jump into our new strategic plan targets, I want to affirm the 2022 EBITDA target range of $785 million to $825 million that we provided on October 27. Looking at the quarterly revenue recovery in 2021 in comparison to pre-pandemic levels, our first quarter recovery was 89%, second quarter was 92%, third quarter was 93% and fourth quarter recovery is expected to be 96%. The slowdown in growth between the second and third quarters was attributed to the impact of the delta variant of COVID-19. We see the fourth quarter recovery rate of 96% as a baseline for the future. And at that level, full year 2021 pro forma revenue would be $4.37 billion. Building from this, in the current inflationary environment, next year we expect to achieve higher than historical price increases around 3% to 4% with volume growth in addition to the price increases, we expect 2022 revenue to be in a range of approximately $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion. That supports our EBITDA target for next year. Now on to our 3-year targets. My colleagues covered our comprehensive growth strategies and margin expansion opportunities. Combined, they generate our new strategic plan targets that are aggressive, but we believe very achievable. Under the plan, compounded annually revenue is targeted to grow 8% to 9%, operating profit 20% and EBITDA 15%. The operating profit margin is projected to improve to around 14.5% and the EBITDA margin to 18.5%. And other than the Argentine peso, ForEx has been held constant. Normalized annual revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 is targeted at 7%, which includes base organic growth of 4% and an incremental 3% from our Strategy 2.0 initiatives. Over the 3-year strategic plan, we expect operating profit growth of 20% compounded annually, which is around 70% in aggregate. 2/3 of the expected OP increase is from organic revenue growth and operational excellence in our base cash logistics business, with the remaining 1/3 expected from our Strategy 2.0 digital cash payment solutions. These components combined are expected to expand margins over 100 basis points per year and 330 bps in aggregate from the guidance of 11.2% in 2021 to 14.5% in 2024. Let's focus on free cash flow. For the full year 2021, we expect that $660 million of EBITDA will generate $205 million in pro forma free cash flow before dividends, a 31% conversion and approximately $4.10 per share. In 2024, we expect that $1 billion of EBITDA will generate $575 million in free cash flow before dividends, a 58% conversion and approximately $11 per share. Please note that a $405 million increase in free cash flow is expected from a $340 million increase in EBITDA. Now that's leverage. Digging deeper, notice the reduction in cash restructuring since we're assuming no new acquisitions. Cash interest is expected to decline $15 million as lower net debt is only partly offset by higher variable interest rates. Cash taxes are expected to remain relatively flat as increased earnings utilize existing tax attributes, including NOLs and foreign tax credits. In 2019, before the pandemic and before the G4S and PAI acquisitions, cash CapEx was $165 million. We preserved cash in 2020 during the pandemic and expect approximately $180 million in cash CapEx in 2021. Throughout the new strategic plan period, annual cash CapEx should remain constant around $180 million, but decrease 100 basis points as a percent of revenue. Our Strategy 2.0 initiatives require significantly less CapEx than our traditional business. I just told you that cash interest expense is expected to decline primarily due to lower net debt. But perhaps you didn't realize that over the 3-year strategic plan period, net debt is expected to be reduced by just over $1 billion, down 43% to approximately $1.3 billion. Again, the plan assumes no new acquisitions, no additional share repurchases and the current dividend rate. We assume that free cash flow after dividends will be used to pay down debt. The lower net debt divided by 52% higher EBITDA reduces total financial leverage from 3.5 turns at the end of 2021 to 1.3 turns by the end of 2024. This, of course, is only theoretical. If there were no material acquisitions during the strategic plan period, our capital allocation would pivot to a greater return of cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. While on the topic of debt, please note that we have no material debt maturities until 2024 when our credit facility matures. Our senior notes mature in 2025 and 2027, and the make whole of both tranches expire in 2022. We continuously monitor the capital markets and are always receptive to refinancings that would lower our rates and/or have more favorable terms and conditions. And for completeness, Brink's has several legacy liabilities, including a Brink's U.S. frozen pension plan, a United Mine Workers of America VEBA frozen pension plan and some smaller liabilities that are enumerated in our 10-K. There are no cash distributions estimated for these liabilities prior to 2029. Now let's discuss total shareholder return. Based on our 2022 to 2024 strategic plan targets, we anticipate a 20% compound annual organic shareholder return. That's comprised of 6% from revenue growth, 9% from margin expansion in our Strategy 2.0 initiatives and 5% from additional cash generated, of which 1% is returned to shareholders through dividends. This is based on our current PE of 11x. Over the last 4 years, we have a track record of accretive M&A. One measure of accretion is comparing Brink's consolidated multiple of enterprise value to EBITDA to the acquired business multiple. The acquisition multiple is calculated using the net cash purchase price divided by the fully synergized 12-month EBITDA. The weighted average multiple of the acquisitions completed since 2017 is expected to be 6.5x, accretive even compared to our current depressed multiple. Our strategic plan does not assume any acquisitions. However, going forward, our primary M&A focus is on transactions that would accelerate the implementation and increase the impact of our Strategy 2.0 initiatives. Expansion of our multiple from current levels, combined with potential future accretive M&A could generate a compound annual total shareholder return in excess of 20%. I just mentioned the potential expansion of our multiple. At the time of this recording, our multiple was about 7x. In February 2020, just before the global pandemic, our multiple was about 9x. As we emerge from the pandemic, we could see our multiple return to that level or higher. But another way for margin expansion is for Brink's to be classified in an appropriate peer group. Today, international cash and transit companies are based in Sweden, Spain and Canada. It makes little sense to compare Brink's to them. Rather, Brink's should be compared to other route-based industrial service companies in the United States. Looking at the qualitative measures, we certainly tick all the boxes. Looking closer at the route-based industrial service peer companies, our margins are lower, but we're quickly closing the gap. Our 3-year prepandemic compound annual EBITDA growth rate was more than double the peer average. But despite our track record of growth, our multiple is at least 8 turns lower than the peer average and 3 turns below the lowest company in this group. It's clearly reasonable to assume that Brink's multiple should increase going forward, especially if we achieve the financial results in this plan. Now let's look at the impact on Brink's share price and total shareholder return for changes in the multiple over the 3-year strategic plan horizon. Using a 6.5x future 12-month multiple, we believe our 2024 target EBITDA of $1 billion would generate a BCO share price of $115. One turn change in the multiple would generate a $20 change in the share price and an 8% change in the annual total shareholder return. Earning a multiple closer to our route-based peers would result in the value creation illustrated here. And if we get some credit for our evolution into a digital payments company, well, I'll let you decide. I'll now turn it back to Doug to wrap up.
Douglas Pertz
executiveThanks, Ron. Before I move on to our Q&A session, I'll close by summarizing today's key messages. Over the next 3 years, we expect organic revenue growth of 7% per year and margin growth of 100 basis points per year. The Strategy 1.0 operational excellence and organic growth initiatives are expected to yield 4% of this top line growth and 75 basis points of margin improvement per year. And our Strategy 2.0 digital and ATM initiatives layering in an additional 3% of revenue growth and 25 basis points of margin improvement per year. Together, we expect these strategies to drive more than $1 billion of new revenue growth and 300 basis points of margin improvement, resulting in 2024 revenue of $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1 billion. We're also targeting free cash flow of approximately $575 million or about $11 of free cash flow per share. Our goal is to deliver total shareholder value, or TSR, around the top 10% of the S&P 500, which translates into a 20% compound annual growth rate through 2024. Most importantly, successful execution of these strategies will establish Brink's as a key player in the payments ecosystem, driving continued high-margin revenue growth well beyond our 3-year plan period. Strategy 1.0 is all about operational excellence. Essentially, it's a continuation and expansion of the organic initiatives that made our first 3-year strategic plan so successful. And Strategy 2.0 is accelerating our transformation to a digital payments company focused on digital cash payments. Unlike the market for digital payment processing solution, which is heavily vended, the market for digital cash payment solutions is heavily unvended. That's the enormous white space opportunity before us. Brink's now offers merchants a compelling stand-alone digital cash payment solution. And together with digital payment processing companies, we bring to market an integrated payment solution, one that offers an expanded growth opportunity for our partners and for Brink's. In 2024, we expect our Strategy 2.0 solutions to generate at least $500 million of incremental revenue, roughly 10% of our consolidated revenue. And as we convert more of our existing customers from traditional cash logistics services to our digital cash payment solutions, we're targeting our Strategy 2.0 initiatives to represent 20% of our total revenue by 2025. These initiatives are expected to materially increase margins, reduce capital expenditures and improve return on invested capital as well as free cash flow, resulting in accelerated value creation for our shareholders. Our team has a proven track record and a clear vision for what we need to do to execute our strategy and emerge as a key player in the modern payments ecosystem. Cash usage remained strong and continues to be the most used method of payment globally, especially for many millions of unbanked and underbanked people around the world. As the world's largest cash management company, we facilitate economic inclusion for people in more than 50 countries. Today, Brink's is the route-based logistics business with a proven track record and strong financial metrics. We're layering new services on top of this solid foundation to drive our transformation into a highly profitable provider of digital cash payment solutions. Our strategy combines operational excellence with innovation and positions us to capitalize on the tremendous opportunity before us as the payments industry evolves. And our team is poised to disrupt the industry and unlock significant value for all of our stakeholders. [Break]
Edward Cunningham
executiveWelcome back, everyone. It's time for our live Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Tobey Sommer at Truist.
Tobey Sommer
analystFirst question that I have is for Rohan. It looks like the majority of the addressable market for 2.0 Brink's Complete is comprised of retailers that don't currently use any CIT industry services. What gives you the confidence that you'll be able to convert these unvended retailers into new customers?
Rohan Pal
executiveTobey, thank you for the question. Let me just start by saying I'm just -- I'm really pleased at kind of the strength of our pipeline and the work we're currently doing with our customers and our pilots. So I shared with you a recent customer win in the underserved space, Five Below, 1,100 locations, 600 of them we've already implemented. Let me give you another example. Another large enterprise retailer, pilot customer of ours that we've recently converted to an order, Dollar Tree. We had a 60-store pilot with this customer, and they've recently given us an additional 400 locations that we will begin to implement in early 2022. I think for these customers, what I'm seeing, Tobey, is the shift away from proof of concepts and pilots now to really customer trials. These customers, they get the value of Brink's Complete very quickly, especially at a time like now when there are labor shortages on their shop floors. And so what they want is a trial so they can begin to create the right processes back office and on their floors to better handle cash on their floors to take full advantage of our solution, so they can then reinvest that time with their customers.
David Dove
executiveRohan, if I could jump in? Strategy 2.0, Tobey, includes not just Brink's Complete and BLUbeem, but the ATM business. And I wouldn't discount the growth in the ATM business in terms of making a meaningful contribution to the $500 million incremental revenue target.
Douglas Pertz
executiveAnd Tobey, I got to jump in as well, obviously. To add to what the information we provided already as well as what Rohan has added and to tie it back to the numbers, we talked about $0.5 billion of additional revenue generated from 2.0 by 2024 or about 10% of our total revenue. That's incremental. And so the other component to this is transitioning a significant portion of our current CIT customers and maybe some competitors as well, but our current CIT customers from CIT over to our new digital cash payment solutions. That may be not an incremental revenue gain, but a profit gain, more sustainable recurring revenue, which is we think a better value overall. So it's not in our revenue gain, but it clearly is part of our transition to our new digital services.
Edward Cunningham
executiveOur next question comes from George Tong at Goldman Sachs.
Keen Fai Tong
analystYou mentioned that by 2024, Strategy 2.0 should generate 10% of total revenues while being margin accretive. Can you discuss how much in revenue you expect from Brink's Complete in each year from 2021 through 2024 or 2025, so that we can better understand the trajectory of growth and adoption. And then also comment on what the EBITDA margin profile for Brink's Complete currently look like.
Douglas Pertz
executiveI'll start with that a little bit. And I'll let both David and Rohan chime in from the ATM as well as the digital cash payments 2.1 solution side of this. We are ramping up on the 2.0 digital cash payments piece. It will -- we expect the slope to get steeper and steeper in terms of the adaptation and the growth of that as we go through the plan period and then well after the plan period, both in terms of just we talked about the incremental either underserved or unvended customers which will be new incremental revenue as well as the conversion revenue we just spoke about that are integral to our existing revenue numbers today. So we expect over the course of the period that to ramp up and that to get steeper a curve as we go forward. We already have a fair amount of ATM business, which is part of our 2.0 solutions as well that are probably more on the front end, and we expect to continue to drive that throughout the planned period. As an example, the BPCE contract next year should generate well north of $50-plus million in revenue and a little bit more than that in 2023 when it's fully implemented. And that's just one example of a full managed out service retail -- solution, excuse me, for ATMs. Do you have any further on that, David?
David Dove
executiveWell, yes, I want to reinforce what you say. We're already in the ATM business today in a meaningful way. And we have line of sight right now to very meaningful contribution toward that $500 million incremental revenue number over the next 3 years. In terms of margins, I would say that we're already accretive today to the base business.
Douglas Pertz
executiveAnd George, I think what's really critical here, what we're laying out for the street and for our strategy is, this 2.0 is incremental to our core business that historically has generated this 4% to 5% organic growth on the revenue and margin improvement, basically every year, as you've seen. Even from 2021 to '22, we're talking about more than 100 basis points of margin improvement that's embedded in our guidance numbers and continuing that throughout the planned period of time, and we're layering on top of that this additional 3-plus percent of organic growth and improved margins as well. That's the key piece of our strategy going forward that makes us unique and drives that top of the S&P, if you will, returns. Who's next?
Edward Cunningham
executiveUp next is Sam England of Berenberg.
Samuel England
analystI was just wondering, you mentioned the value creation for customers from the 2.0 initiative. I was wondering if you sort of quantified the cost improvement or efficiency gains that customers might get from the 2.0 initiative. And if you could provide any color around that?
Douglas Pertz
executiveYes. Sam, I'll pass some of this off to Rohan for more detail. We look at it from 2 points of view. One of them is the improvement in cost or efficiency gains for the customer. And the way that we present this to the customer is in a value tool or a return tool for the customer, taking into consideration all of the costs associated with managing their cash, similar to what they do with the rest of their payments. I'll let Rohan talk a little bit more on that. And then from our standpoint, we've given you some ranges at least of improvements in the margins. The 25 basis points that we're talking about per year over the 3-year plan period of time is improvement in our overall margin. So we're adding with the incremental revenue from 2.0 of the 3% per year. We're adding the revenue at company base margins and then improving our overall margins by another 25 basis points on top of that. And as we continue to put more 2.0 on top of that, they are at accretive, better margins, and we'll continue to see that improvement. We can talk a little bit more about the details. But I think Mark and others have provided some of that. We'd be glad to talk some more about specifically what that is, anywhere from massive reductions as we roll this out in size and quantities to the number of stops, which, obviously, help us reduce our overall cost to other things that improve efficiency. Do you want to talk a little bit from the customer standpoint?
Rohan Pal
executiveYes. I think when you think about it from a value creation perspective to the customer, you have to remember that with Brink's Complete, we offer a complete digital cash payment solution to a customer from a single provider, right? So the app, the tech-enabled device, the next day credit, change orders all wrapped up in a convenient way for the -- for our retail merchants to use because it's integrated in and processed the same way that they today handle debit and credit card services. It's easy to use. They scan a bag, they drop it in the device, they get credit for that cash deposit next day, and we scale the solution, right, up and down to be appealing even for customers that have $5,000 of cash deposits a month. So when you put those things together, there's huge value creation for the customer. And then of course, on the back end, there's the trickle back benefits into our operating model and our existing operations as well.
Douglas Pertz
executiveA good example of that from the customer standpoint, and this is one that for the last 1.5 years I've been thinking about personally, as I mentioned in my presentation, the good example of that is a customer that agreed to or looked at the value of this and test it maybe in some of the initial pilots or test locations that they came on with. And then said, I'm going to go to 100% of my locations with us. That's suggesting, they saw the value. That's a good example is Five Below and implemented it very quickly. And that's this opportunity with this underserved that have a very low percentage, if any, served today by us or the industry. And again, Five Below is a good example, like going from a very small percent served by the industry or us to 100%. That's value.
David Dove
executiveSo one more add to this, please. And that is that 2.0 doesn't exist within 2 separate and distinct product groups, one called Brink's Complete and one called ATM. These groups work together to provide incremental value to the retailer, where we can service the solution that is both ATM and an automated deposit solution with a single infrastructure.
Samuel England
analystAnd how many market partners do you have that can take this and roll this as another go-to-market strategy?
David Dove
executiveWell, we touch 85,000 retail locations every day. And every time we go out with an ATM bid, we are including the automated deposit solution set that Brink's brings to us.
Edward Cunningham
executiveOur next question is from Phillip Cook at SouthernSun.
Phillip Cook
analystI've got a couple of quick questions for Mark, actually. You've only been at Brink's now for a couple of months. But how involved were you in developing this 3-year plan, the strategic portion of it, the financial portion of it? Just how much of it has your fingerprint on it?
Richard Eubanks
executiveThanks, Phillip. And I'm sure this is a question on maybe many investors' minds given my entry to the company as well as the plans in the future. What I can tell you is not only did I spend quite a bit of time before I joined the company with Doug going through quite a bit of strategy discussion and pressure-testing a lot of maybe the knowns or assumptions I had from the outside of the company. But in fact, day 1, as I started, I jumped in waist deep -- maybe chest deep with Doug and the rest of the leadership team and our strategy team to really formalize and finalize our strategy -- our strategic plan that we presented to our Board of Directors basically 4 weeks into my tenure. And during that time period, I was not a fly on the wall, and I think had a good chemistry with the team, but had the ability to really pressure test a lot of the assumptions, maybe the rules of thumb that the business has always used to make sure that I'm comfortable with it. And I think that was a critical part of the strategic planning. I think as you look at what we laid out today and the focus we had, a big part of our strategic plan is still our Strategy 1.0 and not just continuing to do the same at the same pace, but actually doing it at an accelerated pace with much more urgency and a more systemic approach as we go across the globe. And that's where, I think, as you'll see -- as pleased to see Mike's engagement already and leadership in the company as we're starting to pull together the Brink's business system and roll that out across the globe, which is across 53 countries, as we mentioned, that really has been instrumental, I think, in laying out the long-term financial targets for the company, which, again, was a big part of getting comfortable with. So rest assured, this is not a last guy in changing the idea and changing the numbers. I'm bought in here, and that's why I'm up here with the team.
Douglas Pertz
executiveAbsolutely. And I got to say, Phillip, it's been, what, 4 months or so, maybe you can argue whether it's 3.5 or 4 months. And it's a great addition to continuing to drive this base 1.0 part of the plan, accelerate like you say, make it our culture even more Lean and aggressively driving both our organic growth and our margin improvement as well as now layering this next piece on that, I agree. Mark's all on. He's a great leader to help us get to that next level on both of those strategies.
Richard Eubanks
executiveAnd I think it's worth saying as well. While the presentation, we had to carve out kind of who spoke on what. Certainly, 2.0 is not a separate initiative or a separate activity. It's actually part of the business. It is the business. It's just another set of initiatives as well as solutions for our customers that we can leverage our base business to drive more value not only for our customers, but for our shareholders.
Phillip Cook
analystWell, I've got just one follow-up that's more related to sort of tactical operational execution. So you touched on these breakthrough initiatives on cost productivity and the Brink's business system. You said you identified something like 20 different operational initiatives. And you've got a background and a history in a global business. But how -- functionally, how do you go out to a global workforce with unique characteristics in different regions, in different countries and actually get the buy-in that you need to execute these important initiatives, especially when there's 20 of them and not 2.
Richard Eubanks
executiveSure. Yes, I think the initiatives are really activities that we've identified that are common opportunities across the footprint that I'd say anyone is going to agree is an opportunity. It's just a matter of do they have the tools, do they have the training and do they have the, say, visibility to previous best practices that have already solved that problem. And I think that's as much of the Brink's business system is learning from ourselves and being able to redeploy success across the globe. That's -- can sound like a lot of motherhood and apple pie. But in fact, what it is, is it is about creating the right culture around continuous improvement where our leaders in 53 countries and in the regions are pulling this knowledge, not having it shoved at them from corporate. That's sort of the first side. The second is having the tools and being able to document tool sets and problem-solving skills that allow our teams to do that. And then lastly, it's about creating alignment. And this is where our strategy deployment process as we're rolling out across the globe allows us to connect the dots from the top-level corporate metrics that you saw today that are laid out in our strategy into the regions, into the countries, into the branch and into daily management of our individual supervisors and frontline workers. That's the essence of the Brink's business system. And we've proven that we're -- we've been able to do it. And Mike talked a little bit about maybe Mexico, maybe you want to add anything to that?
Michael Beech
executiveYes. Sure. Phillip, what I'd like to add is not only do we have a proven track record with Lean and implementing the daily management where we've been successful in the examples that I've given. But we also have a proven template. We have our Lean road map. And we have added an investment in resources globally that we have expertise in each of our regions to drive implementation across Europe, Asia and Latin America and North America. So not only do we have our proven successes and road map, but now we're applying that same road map globally and made the investment in resources to do it.
Douglas Pertz
executiveAnd when you take a look at other businesses, other what I would consider best-in-breed, Lean, continuous improvement companies out there, they continue every year to get the benefits, to get the improvements and accelerate that. And we can give you some examples. But that's who we are today and our history shows that, and that's who we're going to be even more so in the future. So expect -- and we have a high degree of confidence as a result of the numbers, this type of improvements in cost, margin improvements, not only during the strat plan period, which we gave in the first strat plan period, SP1, but into the future and above beyond that. That's what this culture is all about.
Edward Cunningham
executiveThanks, Phillip. It looks like we have one more question from Simon Mc Grotty at William Blair.
Simon Mc Grotty
analystI've got 2 questions. The first question is around kind of just more logistical around Brink's Complete. And is the plan to take this global in 2022? Or is it kind of -- are you using kind of the U.S. business as more of the -- I guess, the test bed for commercialization? And then the second relation to that is, are you going to report quarterly or annually on deployments of sites and/or management of ATMs?
Douglas Pertz
executiveDo you want to take where you are today and then where we're going with this and...
Rohan Pal
executiveSure. So let me just start by saying that we have pilots and stage gate processes underway in 30 out of the 53 countries that we currently operate in. So it is truly a global product being rolled out globally, of course, regionalized and localized to fit the local markets, but that's sort of the plan as we're executing it today. What I would also say is that the U.S. is very much out in front. We call it the tip of the spear. They are the furthest ahead in terms of active launch and beginning to really pull and pick up the market now as we move forward. But yes, truly a global product with a global execution even as we sit here today.
Douglas Pertz
executiveAnd Simon, that suggests as one of the prior questions was that we'll continue to see a steepening of the implementation curve. The U.S. is going to be the start of this. And as we specifically focus on new customers and different go-to-market strategies that we've never done before, which Rohan talked about, that's going to be heavily rolled out into the U.S. over the next course of the year, but we'll be rolling this out to, as Rohan said to, other countries, which will then steepen the curve for our implementation going forward.
Simon Mc Grotty
analystUnderstood. The next question -- the final question is in relation to the base business. And I'm just -- and more kind of the operational cost initiatives. Like can you -- is it possible to compare maybe the rest of the portfolio and how advanced markets are outside of the U.S. in terms of implementing Lean to where the U.S. business is today? And I guess I'm working on the assumption that the U.S. is, I guess, more advanced in that implementation. But I'm just trying to understand how the rest of the business compares on a maturity towards Lean to -- versus the U.S.?
Douglas Pertz
executiveSo let me start with that, but I'm going to pass it over to Mike or Mark. Look, this isn't about how advanced is one country versus the other. That's kind of something we need to think about when you -- this is a journey. This is a journey that every year we'll get better at. Every year, we'll add more to it, whether it be resources or opportunities or new initiatives that we can implement some of those by country and we get to be able to take them from one country to the other that we're experts in the business. So with that said, you don't look at this -- whether it be a business plan and a structure and a culture, it continues well beyond the strat plan period of time, it continues to yield great results. So that's one thing that's said. And so whether it be the U.S., a bit advanced, and I'd suggest it's probably not necessarily more advanced than some of the other countries. I'd let Mike address that a little bit. And then Mark, you can jump in.
Michael Beech
executiveYes. Certainly. I mean, we have tremendous opportunities everywhere. In some respects, the countries that are just implementing Lean now have the greatest opportunity for margin improvement. Although we still have great opportunities for margin improvement, particularly as it applies to 2.0 and our digital cash management services and products to be able to free up capacity and what we do with that capacity, whether it's new volume or getting rid of that excess capacity. I mean that's where the opportunity is from a Lean perspective. And although we closely monitor and measure the progress of the Lean road map for every country, and every country may be at a different level. The opportunity in each country is just as great.
Richard Eubanks
executiveYes, I would agree. And the only thing I would really add to that is we have -- and I'd say in all of the various regions, we have varying levels of maturity, some at sort of best in region or a benchmark and then some that are very early in the journey. I think this is -- Mike's point is key, though, is just because a country or a region might be at a higher maturity, it doesn't mean that there's less opportunity left. It actually means there's more opportunity, I think, on top to start to do more sophisticated improvements and Brink's business system certainly helps that as we connect that to Brink's Complete. And this is where we think a lot of the accretion and margin improvement that happens year-on-year is going to come from?
Douglas Pertz
executiveI think, Simon, one of the important pieces is we, the group, the teams, the country managers have a high degree of confidence in the ability to achieve the margin improvements and have line of sight, visibility, as to what those will be by country, by initiative, et cetera, going forward. I think that's what's really important over this period of time. We may not in '25, '26, but I can tell you, we'll continue to drive for continuous improvement and more margin improvement then as well, just as we did transitioning from our first strat plan through '19 into this plan.
Simon Mc Grotty
analystUnderstood. And I mean -- final follow-up is just are kind of country managers kind of compensated on the basis of hitting a lot of the Lean targets? And are there changes that you've had to make to compensation structure?
Douglas Pertz
executiveThe answer is yes, they are. It's embedded in their plan, and they know that has to be part of the culture. They have support through regional trainers and focus experts as well to help support with that. But they know the direction. They're compensated on it, and they're all onboard.
Richard Eubanks
executiveIn fact, in some areas, our compensation plans are linked directly as a qualifier to being Lean certified or moving our Lean maturity forward.
Edward Cunningham
executiveIt looks like we have a follow-up from Tobey Sommer at Truist.
Tobey Sommer
analystI was wondering if you could speak to the implications of higher inflation out in the marketplace on both your top line as well as your cost structure and maybe comment if you have any visibility at this point into what the receptivity and realized price increase is in the U.S. because I know you may have some customers that opt to accept it earlier than the normal January date. And wondering if that can be informative.
Douglas Pertz
executiveYes. Tobey, I think that's a good question, especially since we just saw 9.6% is the U.S. inflation rate and driving a lot of that debt. This has been building, obviously, over time. I'll let Mark talk a little bit about the U.S. pricing actions and the ability to -- as we spoke about during our last earnings release, the ability to capture that in pricing and the negative impact it had on us during the second half of this year as, in fact, the labor cost went up. And we think we've gotten to where we need to be or close to it, at least for now, with labor, and we'll catch up with that with pricing that is being implemented. I'll let Mark talk to that a little bit. But I think it goes back to what Ron spoke to with one slide. And we don't know precisely what the pricing component of the revenue increases will be going forward, but we know it's going to be greater than it has historically been. And that's going to probably help drive overall revenues up. And that's then in addition to recovery -- continued recovery like we saw in '21 from the pandemic into next year, even if we see some bumps in the road like we did in '21. And then on top of that, additional volume growth, partially driven by our core business as well as by our new strategies. With that, let me pass it over to Mark and give us some background, if you will, or some color around the discussion on price increase receptivity in the U.S.
Richard Eubanks
executiveYes. I think we talked about it in the last earnings call very specifically. This -- we certainly had a mismatch of timing of inflation with wage increases to really help stem some of the turnover in the job market that we experienced, in our industry particularly. But as we committed and thought we'd get to is really to be in balance with our price cost before we exited Q4. And certainly looks like, Tobey, we're there and feel good about it. What I would say about going forward is we would expect to remain with the same posture. And this means that the market continues to push on us from a cost inflation perspective. We expect to be in the market with price as well. And I think this is a history that holds in the business. I'd say that's in the U.S. globally. We're seeing maybe some similar dynamics in individual countries, both in Latin America as well as Europe, even some in Asia as well. And we continue to see the same dynamic though of a little bit of pressure, not quite like we saw from the U.S., but some pressure that continues to go through in the market with pricing. And our teams are disciplined in this way and have been for some time.
Douglas Pertz
executiveSo the lag that you're talking about in the U.S. of pricing, which now we're getting to the end of the year is we're seeing the buy in to the pricing, if you will, which will give us -- put us in the position to cover the labor as we go into...
Richard Eubanks
executiveThe price realization that we put into -- for the price increases in the market, yes.
Douglas Pertz
executiveI think that was your primary question, Tobey.
Ronald Domanico
executiveDoug and Mark talked about pricing and our largest cost component, which is labor. Our second largest cost component is our fleet and the largest cost there other than D&A is fuel. And I will tell you that most of our contracts have fuel surcharges in them, which enable us to recover inflationary increases in fuel.
Edward Cunningham
executiveThat wraps up our presentation for today. That wraps it up for our presentation today. Thank you so much for attending. I'll now turn it back over to Doug for some final comments.
Douglas Pertz
executiveThanks, Ed. And thanks to all of you for attending our virtual Investor Day. I also want to thank all of our Brink's colleagues around the world. You are the reason for our past success and the key to our future. Our message today is that Brink's is executing a strategy to accelerate shareholder value. We're laying new services on top of a solid foundation of operational excellence and organic growth to drive a transformation into a highly profitable provider of digital cash payment solutions. And we're poised to disrupt the cash management industry and accelerate growth by providing these digital solutions to a very large, untapped white space opportunity of retail customers. These retailers haven't had the value-added solutions for handling cash payments that met their business needs until now. Our industry is ripe for innovation, and Brink's is leading the way. Thanks, again, for your support.
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