The Commercial Bank (P.S.Q.C.) ($CBQK)
Earnings Call Transcript · April 14, 2026
Highlights from the call
In Q1 2026, The Commercial Bank (CBQK:QA) reported a net profit of QAR 501.4 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase driven by a 7.6% rise in net operating income to QAR 1,216.8 million. The bank's net interest income grew by 12.6%, although higher provisions due to geopolitical tensions impacted overall profitability. Management maintained its guidance for the fiscal year, emphasizing a commitment to achieving strategic targets despite the challenging macroeconomic environment.
Main topics
- Geopolitical Impact on Operations: Management acknowledged that the 'current heightened geopolitical environment and instability across the GCC has had a direct impact on energy supply and trade.' However, they emphasized that Qatar's banking system remains 'robust and resilient.'
- AI Initiatives and Strategy Execution: The bank is progressing with its AI roadmap, including 'early client churn detection' and 'credit card spend and activation predictor' tools. This reflects a strong commitment to enhancing customer engagement and operational efficiency.
- Provisioning Strategy: The bank adjusted its ECL model to account for regional conflict, leading to higher provisions. 'We believe we are firmly on track toward a net cost of risk of 90 to 100 basis points in 2026,' indicating a proactive approach to risk management.
- Financial Performance: Net operating income increased by 7.6% year-on-year, driven by growth in net interest income and fee income. However, net provisions rose significantly to QAR 319 million, impacting net profit.
- Dividend Policy: Management confirmed that there are 'no changes' to the dividend policy despite geopolitical tensions, maintaining a commitment to delivering a sustainable dividend.
Key metrics mentioned
- Net Profit: QAR 501.4 million (vs QAR 450 million est, +5% YoY)
- Net Operating Income: QAR 1,216.8 million (vs QAR 1,130 million est, +7.6% YoY)
- Net Interest Income: QAR 1,000 million (vs QAR 890 million est, +12.6% YoY)
- Net Provisions: QAR 319 million (vs QAR 150 million est, +114% YoY)
- Cost-to-Income Ratio: 32.3% (vs 30% est, higher YoY)
- NPL Ratio: 6% (vs 6.1% last quarter, slight improvement)
The Commercial Bank's Q1 2026 results reflect a resilient performance amidst challenging geopolitical conditions. While the bank has shown strong revenue growth, the increase in provisions and operating expenses raises concerns about future profitability. Investors should monitor the execution of the bank's strategic initiatives and the evolving geopolitical landscape as potential catalysts or risks going forward.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesGood afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Mohamed Farhan, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm pleased to welcome you all to the Commercial Bank's Quarter 1 2026 earnings conference call. On this call, I have you on my left, Stephen Moss, who is the Group Chief Executive Officer of Commercial Bank of Qatar; and on to my far left is Muhammad Ali, the Chief Financial Officer. [Operator Instructions] I'll now hand over to Stephen Moss. Over to you.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesThank you, Farhan. Good afternoon. Let me start by providing some comments and I suspect this will form a lot of the Q&A and comments on recent events. So clearly, the current heightened geopolitical environment and instability across the GCC has had a direct impact on energy supply and trade Against this backdrop, Qatar and its banking system remains robust and resilient. The country entered this period from a position of strength, with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, supported by significant external buffers, proven budgeting and strong sovereign credit rating fundamentals. During the other 6 weeks, our business continuity planning has ensured that we at the Commercial Bank have been able to remain very focused on staying close to our clients, whilst maintaining strong liquidity and capital strength. The Commercial Bank continues to operate from a position of institutional strength with a very clear strategy as we set out earlier this year for the period from the first of January 2026 to the 31st of 31 December, 2030, supported by prudent risk management, a resilient balance sheet and a clear focus on delivering sustainable long-term value for our customers, our people and our shareholders. We benefit from the support of a proactive and forward-looking regulator, the Qatar Central Bank has announced a package of prudent precautionary measures to ensure liquidity and stability across the banking sector, including Qatar real repo facilities, a new term loan repo facility of up to 3 months and a 100 basis points reduction in reserve requirements. Clients are also committed to request the deferral of loan principal and interest payments for up to 3 months. In January, I said 2026 will be a year of execution, and I want to give you a clear picture of where we stand. The progress is real. In 1 quarter, we've moved from strategy on paper to delivery with governance, accountability and early results. Our strategy execution office is up and running. We have 22 strategic initiatives running in parallel across retail, wholesale, treasury, et cetera. with underlying detailed actions and milestones, which are regularly tracked. In retail and wealth, we've continued to strengthen the business where we already have clear competitive advantages with the rollout out of a new wealth management solution. We've also taken further steps to enhance customer experience and deepen engagement in the retail business through the launch of Face Pay and CB Connect. In Wholesale Banking, we're making progress with a focus on more capital-efficient, cross-sell driven growth, and we continue to strengthen our client offering through upgrades to our corporate channels facilitating digital account opening and growing traction across our digital platforms. We've also made 3 senior appointments in the quarter, a new Chief Operating Officer and new Head of Treasury and a new Head of Human Resources and the key capabilities in support of the execution of very important parts of our strategic agenda. To deliver our strategy, we're focused on achieving 5 clear outcomes, drawing a line under the legacy book reshaping the bank towards a more capital-efficient and fee-driven business model, capturing growth in underpenetrated segments, including countries, SMEs and affluent clients, embedding AI across the bank and delivering sustainable shareholder returns. One of the most important enablers of our strategy and an area where we are making tangible and measurable progress is the Priority use cases have been identified and sequence across the bank each of 2026 and 2027. During the first quarter of 2026, the bank introduced multiple initiatives as part of our AI road map. First, our retail customer retention AI program deploying advanced machine learning tools -- machine learning model, sorry, enabling early client churn detection and real-time streaming of commercial actions and campaigns for mitigation and retention. driving more proactive and effective retention strategies with strong business ownership throughout. Second, our credit card spend and activation predictor. This is an AI embedded tool set identifying slow to start retail customers before they become inactive, enabling us to deploy high incentive offers only where they're needed and establishing early usage patterns, which are amongst the strongest predictors of long-term loyalty. Third, the launch of the bank's own generative AI platform within a secure on-prem environment, every employee can now search thousands of internal policies and documents in seconds as follow-up questions in plain language and draft professional content with a road map that will evolve to support AI agents capable of performing automated tasks. Together, these initiatives are a reflection of the progress we're making on our AI journey executing with discipline, with a clear business ownership and with a focus on delivering measurable outcomes. So let me now walk you through our consolidated performance and targets. The bank delivered a resilient performance in the first quarter of 2026. On provisions, we have adjusted our ECL model serves to be weighted higher towards a downturn scenario to account for the regional conflict, which has contributed to higher provisions. In addition, consistent with what we said earlier this year, the quarter reflects a more balanced approach of spreading the provisioning charge evenly across all 4 quarters. as opposed to carrying a significantly larger charge into the fourth quarter as has been the case historically. We believe we are firmly on track toward a net cost of risk of 90 to 100 basis points in 2026 and a normalized net cost of risk of 70 to 90 basis points from 2028 onwards as we continue to work through our exposures in an orderly and proactive manner, and reduce our NPL ratio to below 6%. On our broader financial targets, we remain committed to the guidance we set out earlier this year. From a profitability standpoint, we're targeting a steady improvement in return on equity which is now adjusted for the global minimum tax impact. We're working towards positive jaws from 2027 onwards, driven by revenue growth and pacing cost growth, supported by simplification in operating leverage and cost discipline. In terms of our dividend, we remain committed to targeting the delivery of a sustainable dividend. And on asset quality, our target for our NPL ratio is below 5% and and we are committed to improving our Stage 3 coverage ratio to above 70% by 2030. And finally, on capital, we will maintain a strong CET1 position and total CAR comfortably above regulatory minimums, while creating with selective growth and a sustainable dividend. To close, the regional complex has, of course, created uncertainty for our -- for the businesses we bank and for markets and for the outlook. We continue to monitor this very closely and manage our exposures prudently. However, I want to be clear the execution of the next phase of our strategy continues in earnest. The initiatives we launched in January are progressing, and we remain very focused on building a more diversified revenue base reducing our reliance on balance sheet-driven income, strengthening our fee and transaction banking engine and maintaining cost discipline. I would also like to emphasize that Qatar's fundamentals remain strong with the country navigating the current environment from a position of strength. And of the Commercial Bank, we are taking progressive actions to ensure that we stay true to our commitment to deliver safe sustainable profitability and long-term value for all of our shareholders. Thank you.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThank you, Stephen. Now I hand over Muhammad Ali, who will take us through the quarter 1 financial results.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesThank you, Stephen. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining in. Getting into the results for the 3 months ended 31st March 2026, our focus mainly on Slide 9, it shows the consolidated financial highlights of the group, both on a reported basis and also after excluding the long-term incentive scheme impacts. In summary, the group reported a net profit before the impact of Pillar 2 tax of QAR 538.9 million. The year-on-year movement in profit was supported by resilient operating performance in the first quarter of 2026. Net operating income increased by 7.6% to QAR 1,216.8 million, driven by increase in net interest income and fee income. This was offset by higher net provisions, increased operating expenses, including [indiscernible] 2 related long-term incentive team movements and a reported loss of QAR 25.7 million from our Turkish subsidiary, taking into account the impact of hyperinflation. The group also accrued for the [indiscernible] to tax a charge of QAR 36.9 million. As a result of the reported consolidated net profit after relative tax for the 3 months ended 31st March 2026 was QAR 501.4 million. Talking about our businesses, the retail and wealth business started the year strongly with good and consistent returns supported by growth in lending. On the wholesale banking side, our lending book grew in the core segments with a clear focus on cross-sell opportunities. Our associates continue to perform well as we continue to work closely with them in the execution of their strategies. If we deep dive into the numbers, our consolidated net interest income increased 12.6% year-on-year. Firstly, in relation to interest income, the consolidated gross interest income increased by 5.6% when compared to 30 plus March 2025. This was driven by growth in loans and advances to customers and investment securities. Firstly, our interest expense increased by 1.9% when compared to 31st March 2025, mainly due to increase in customer deposits and syndicated bones year-on-year. As a result, our net interest margin stood at 2.2%, similar to the 31st March 2025 levels. For rest of 2026, we will work towards maintaining our NIM around 2.2% with a downward pressure of 10 basis points. NIM pressure is mainly due to stiff competition for domestic deposits refinancing of some of our medium-term debt issuances, which were previously issued at a lower rate and repricing lag between loans and deposits. In the next phase of our strategy, we specifically identified the need to optimize our funding mix by increasing CASA deposits and also improve the deposit composition in the overall funding pool. This will take time. Moving on to noninterest [indiscernible] our net retail banking in particular, remittances and wholesale bank increase, which included the one-off fee. Further, there was a reduction in net income from investment securities including mark-to-market movements relating to investment securities at fair value through P&L and reduction in dividend income. In terms of operating expenses, the reported operating costs were higher year-on-year primarily due to staff, technology and automation related cost as well as increased [ inflationary ] operating cost from our Turkish subsidiary. Further, the increase in reported operating expenses also included higher staff-related LTS cost due to volatility. As a result, the group's reported cost-to-income ratio reached 32.3%. At domestic level, the cost-to-income rate so on a reported basis now is 27.2%. Alternative banks reported cost-to-income ratio was 65.7%. Going forward, we expect to maintain positive jaws, reflecting revenue growth outpacing cost, not just in 1 year, but consistently across the cycles starting from 2027. Moving on, the net provisions increased to QAR 319 million as compared to QAR 149 million in the same period in 2025. In relation to the provisions on loans to customers, the increase in our provision includes a higher ECL charge due to the regional conflict and also reflects our approach towards a more appropriately balanced provision throughout the year. Our ECL model has considered a higher weightage for the downward economic scenario with high volatility expected in the forward-looking macroeconomic factors. The macroeconomic indicators will continue to be reassessed as the situation continues to evolve. As a result, our gross cost of risk was 129 basis points and another strong quarter of recoveries resulted in a net cost of risk of 90 basis points, in line with our guidance. Our stage 3 coverage ratio has improved to 61% at 31st March 2026 from 60.4% as of 31st December 2025, and from 55.2% from 31st March 2025. NPL ratio decreased slightly to 6% at 31st March 2026 compared to 6.1% at 31st December 2025. There is also a reduction in stage 2 balances, and our Stage 2 coverage ratio increased to 12.4% from 10.4% reported in 2025. Moving on to the balance sheet. The total assets were up by 12.8% year-on-year to QAR 190.6 billion. Loans and advances to customers increased to QAR 105.4 billion, which includes an increase in acceptances, which are trade-related items. If we exclude the increase in acceptances. The loan growth is approximately 3.9% year-on-year. This is driven by growth in wholesale lending, both in government and public sector as well as corporates. Further retail lending also continued to show good progress with growth year-on-year of 1%. On the wholesale side, our focus will be to grow lending on higher return customer segments and high-growth sectors. On the retail side, we will aim to accelerate growth in 3 segments and maintain our leadership on the Expert segment. Investment securities increased by 17.2% year-on-year to reach QAR 40.7 billion, with the group investing in high-quality market securities. Customer deposits increased 11.3% year-on-year to QAR 85 billion at 31st March 2026. The the year-on-year increase was mainly driven by time deposits as well as current and savings deposits. Further, we continue to focus on low-cost deposits, which increased by 3.8% in year-on-year, representing 40.5% of the total customer deposit mix. Our capital remains strong. CET1 ratio increased to 12.4% at 31st March 2026 from 12.3% at 31 March 2025 and the total car increased to 18.4% at 31 March 2026 from 17.1% at 31 March 2025. mainly as a result of a new issuance of our AT1 instrument annuity of alternative bank level in February 2026 and also as a result of lower AT1 deductions. Alternative plant reported a net loss of Qatri 25.7 million 1 hyperinflation for 3 months 31 March, 2026 compared to a net loss of QAR 31.9 million for the same period in 2025. Although there is an improvement in performance at operating profit level, -- the results were impacted by higher inflation accounting. Alternated banked consolidation level represents only 6% of the total overall balance sheet size. That was all from my side and happy to take questions now.
Mohamed Farhan
Executives[Operator Instructions] We have our first question from Aybek.
Aybek Islamov
AnalystsAnd I think I would like to ask a few questions here, right? Well, I guess, 3 questions. First is, looking at your balance sheet trends in the first quarter, right, there is a sequential decline in deposits. But can you explain what's happening there, right? I can also see drawdown on cash balances on the asset side during the first quarter. It will be interesting to know what is the impact behind this? That's my first question. The second question is, can you tell us how is April -- the month of April evolving so far, right? Any insights you can share will be great. And I think thirdly, with regards to your dividend policy, do you anticipate any kind of impact -- negative impact from this geopolitical tensions on to your dividend issues? Any color you can make now on bank [indiscernible].
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesYes. So I'll take the second and third, and I think Muhammad can cover the first, and I'll add as a [appropriate]. Dividend policy, I mean, clearly, we're 6 weeks into the current situation. And the slide that we put out at the end of January on consolidated targets. I mean other than tax affecting it, given the [indiscernible] that's -- we've added that to the slide. But other than that change, we're not changing at the present time, the outlook. As I said in my opening, we remain committed to achieving all the targets in 2026 and 2030 and now effectively. So no change in that. And clearly, our dividend policy in what we said in terms of guidance on dividend remains the same. What we're seeing in the first 2 weeks of probably clearly, we've had probably about 8 or 9 working days. I mean nothing began over the world waits to see what's going to happen. So nothing surprising. Clearly, the obvious sectors are a little stress, i.e., hospitality, hotels, et cetera, but nothing different from you're seeing where you are. So nothing really to draw your attention to. And I'd say nothing any different from the whole of March. So let's wait and see what happens. And then clearly, we'll have some clarity, hopefully as we move forward. But the key message is the targets that we outlined at the end of January remain unchanged.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesAybek, your question on the deposit movement. So from December, there was a reduction in certain customer deposits, and that was mainly relating to government and international deposits, but that was just as part of the normal cycle, nothing disorderly there. And then obviously, we had raised funding earlier than that patient indication of around $900 million. So that also helped us bills movement in relation to some government and international deposits there. And in relation to the balance that belongs to customers, I think the launch were slightly flattish there. But year-on-year, we have shown a growth. And as part of the strategy on the wholesale side, we will continue focusing on our core businesses, core segments focused on higher term sectors. And on the retail side as well, we will show we had growth 1% year-on-year, and we will focus on increasing on the country segment side as well.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesWe have 3 questions from [indiscernible]. I'll read them out. What is the expected tax rate for 2026? And also, do you expect any reversal tax position by end of year?
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSo the effective tax rate will be around 11% to 12% because we are in a point global minimum tax, which is around 13%. However, we have a sport -- there's already a sports and social contribution levy of 2.5%, and that is a covered tax. So that will be deducted. And when you do the calculation, there is certain elements from a reduction perspective for the effective rate tax rate will be between 11% to 12%. .
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesAnd no, we don't expect any write-backs at the present time.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe second question is, there has been a rising other productions this quarter. Can you break down the nature of these whether they are one-off or lining persist?
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSo in other provisions, we have included some property-related -- we are building up provisions in relation to property related impairment. So that is mainly including in relation to that. we might expect a little bit buildup into that, but that's just part of a normal process and our planning budgeting process. that we are going to build up provisions for property impairment.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesSo we have a -- I think, apparent a sizable repossessed property portfolio. And clearly, we will look to divest at the appropriate time. And similarly, we will probably continue within this provisioning line to provisions each quarter at about the same level or slightly higher, which will obviously support the ultimate. So that the right time. Clearly, the January and February things were looking good in terms of an uptick in the property market, et cetera. But obviously, things that have happened since I put that on hold.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesAnd that was again the retail part of our plan.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe third question is how do you see [indiscernible] trajectory evolving over the next 2 to 3 quarters, especially given the current macro coming environment?
Rahul Bajaj
AnalystsOn the [indiscernible] trajectory, I mean, we -- this is a bit too early to say right now, but we haven't seen any significant credit deterioration at this stage. So as part of our focus on legacy book and how we are addressing that, we'll continue addressing that. And our target for the year-end is to be around 6% NPL. So we expect to be in line with our guidance at this stage.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesYes. For the coverage ratio, 62%. And no change at the moment, but obviously as the weeks progress, let see, but very much no, we're not seeing a reason to change that.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesWe have a question form Mohit on the [indiscernible] box, again, with a provision under Median charge. We answered that, so I'll skip that question. That's a question for James. Can you tell us whether the [indiscernible] profit due to high reflationing terms. Could you give us the clarity for Q2 2026 and so on.
Noman Ali
Executives[indiscernible] on the hyper inflation.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesSure. So on hyperinflation, obviously, because of the current situation, we would expect inflation to continue in Turkey, which will mean that our hyperinflation adjustment for Turkey will not be lower than last year. So -- yes, as the hyperinflation impact continues, obviously, we'll continue monitoring the situation there.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesJust about we -- as we told you before, we had head office building in Turkey that we sold. That was a natural hedge. So clearly, we're -- if anything, the hyperinflation charge in 2026 and together with the current situation, we'll likely -- is likely to lead to a higher inflationary -- hyperinflationary readjustment this year. But that's set to be [indiscernible] in the Turkish business, could be underlying performance is better year-on-year, if you remember in Q1 versus Q1. So there's a netting, but with a higher inflation -- hyperinflation charge but actually the underlying business is performing better in absolute terms, and we expect that to continue through quarters.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe second question from [indiscernible], that's on the -- can you give us a road map on the strategy? How we are going to achieve the target guidance after 2030?
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesAnd this is what I said in the 26th of January. And nothing has changed from what we said, since have a strategy for retail. We have a strategy for wholesale. And as I said earlier on the call, we have 22 high-level strategic actions, which really drill down into very clear underlying initiatives, which will basically add up to delivering what is a 5-year master plan, which underpins the 5-year strategy. So this isn't sort of top down, it was more bottom up. So it is -- we mounted that in December -- in November, December and January, and it basically underpin what we said on the 26th of January. So to assure you -- and that was a post exercise to deliver everything I said on the 25th of January. And basically, there's 1 page, which we can direct you to, which is the strategy on a page. And then we have the consolidated targets, which are the outcome of a successful execution of that strategy. So happy to take you through it offline, if that's helpful. But I don't propose to go through it again right in that.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesWe have 3 questions on [indiscernible] in the questionnaire box. The first one is grading the current situation. Can you comment on the operational impact of the war on CBQ. Your guidance for this year is largely unchanged compared to the start of the year. What gives you confidence topic will not derail [indiscernible].
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesSo I mean the operational impact, we have continued to be able to serve our customers, clearly at the beginning March, there were a few days when we weren't to the office, the branches once opened but post then branches [indiscernible] very quickly, leading to all branches being opened from the 24th of March onwards. So operationally, I'd say, there's been little impact, little if any impact, if you see we continue to serve our customers, and we're really having been truing this several times before in slightly different situations that similar. This, to my mind, is a time very much just to really show that we are a relationship bank and stand very close to our customers. So this is a time to get close to our customers, and we've endeavored to do that during the last few weeks or closer to help them. What confidence do I have that we're going to continue to deliver the strategy because, as I say, we've got 6 weeks of clearly the current situation. If it's resolved quickly, then clearly, will have a higher level of confidence to deliver the strategy. that we unpack. But if it takes longer, then clearly, we may have to adjust. We may have to come back to you and say, look, things are going to have to change, but we'll have to wait and see. It's too early to say.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe second question is on this sector that report into and the deposit outflow. What extent do you utilize the central and [indiscernible] facilities and what pins you see on deposit outflows and the overall liquidity.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSo on the liability side, we continue to maintain strong liquidity buffers and active liquidity management is happening. And obviously, we are supported by the QCB measures. So until now, we have not used the repo facility. So there has not been any direct support requested by the banks by CVQ. And then as I mentioned earlier, from a deposit perspective, we had an Asian syndication transaction $900 million in the last few months, which has helped us to get some duration as well. And we are actively managing and monitoring our deposit base and continuing to focus on it.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe third question is on our MTN upcoming [indiscernible]. What are your plans for the way Europe on senior maturity, if you plan to refinance these? - can you cover that you can share will be appreciated?
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSo we will let the market conditions, and then we will decide on it. So we have taken certain actions, which helped us transaction, which we share under certain duration, but we will look into the situation, how the market has then decide on them. .
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesWe have no questions from and on the Q&A box. So what was the bigger impressions related to the reprocessed property book reduced to recur each quarter? Also, what is the expected OpEx growth for 2026, given the global inflation investment?
Noman Ali
ExecutivesAnd if you look at the other provision line, the total amount is around $99 million. That includes the rebillers property book. So this is in the form of plan, we will have a bit of interior throughout the year, but it's just part of building up the provision and accounts with our plan, as Stephen mentioned in relation to our repossessed property portfolio.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesSo correct if I'm wrong, there'll be an increase within that number between overall number 2 [indiscernible] already very slightly.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSlight, right.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe OpEx growth on global inflation.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesYes. So I think from an OpEx perspective, there will be some upward pressure from a budget perspective, we are looking at around to increase. However, given where we are on revenues, we will be focused on managing cost management, discretionary costs. So we'll be really focused on maintaining both discipline during the same.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesYes. So we have I mean clearly, we don't disclose our budget, but we have -- and we didn't. -- you remember, set ourselves the target of positive jolts for 2026 because we wanted to take various actions to get ourselves a position which has set out again in the strategy update regarding simplification, et cetera, to get ourselves in the position from next year to deliver positive jaws. Those are obviously certain cost actions, and we will take those within the environment for 2026, but to give you comfort. We don't suggest that the cost number is going to go up significantly if I'm certainly not above the plan, so we will accommodate whatever increase that occurs due to global inflation within our existing internal plans. So you shouldn't see any significant uptick there beyond our earning channel planning.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe third question from [indiscernible] is on the salary [indiscernible] period adjustment, how much is the amount for the Q1? I will answer that. That's $10 million for the quarter. And if you see our order cost movement, it's $42 million. So if you adjust for [indiscernible], the actual cost increase quarter-on-quarter is $32 million.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesAnd out of that $10 million is coming from alternate bank.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesWe have another question from [indiscernible]. Allowance of impair an equal interest in [indiscernible] around [ 1007 million ] in Q1 of 2026 from $874 million, will this may be similar to Q2 2026.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSo yes, I think if you look at year-on-year, our interest in suspense P&L impact came down around $50 million, mainly because we had certain items which are being out of the interest and substantially released that, and we had certain addition, but we would expect it to be similar. .
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesWe have 4 questions from [indiscernible]. I'm sorry. The first one, can you please share your thoughts on domestic RPD environment in Qatar, and on what deposit wins?
Noman Ali
ExecutivesI mean as I mentioned, from a liquidity perspective, our liquidity remains strong, and we continue to maintain strong liquidity buffers from a country real perspective, our liquidity is strong, as I mentioned. There will be pressure on, as we mentioned, from a NIM perspective, from a local domestic deposit perspective, there is competition for that. So there will be a bit of upward pressure. But as per our NIM guidance, you will continue to maintain that. Our NIM for the last year -- for the last few quarters have been around 2.2%. So we have been able to depend our position. There remains some downward pressure because of local demand for local deposits, but we'll continue to actively manage that. And as we have also highlighted that year-on-year, our CASA deposits have also increased more than 3%. So that is also part of our strategy to focus on growing that as well.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesI mean just to add to that, our liquidity ratios remain strong. And obviously, we benefited in prior to the 28th of February or -- we already had our capital AT1 issue when advanced it actually closed in early March, but we've already effectively done it. And as [indiscernible], we raised USD 900 million Asian syndication. But we do not have any -- we do not see any issues in liquidity. As I said at the beginning, by opening our liquidity is strong and our capital position. Clearly, it's very strong as evidenced by 130 basis points uptick quarter-on-quarter.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe second question is, have you planned any soon measures introduced by [indiscernible]
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesNo, we answered that earlier.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe third one, how much of an impact has the realization of [ ECN ] values on the provision cost for Q1.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSo we had obviously adjusted the downside scenario from 15% to 25%. So if you see our financial statements, you will see the impact in there from a Stage 2 perspective. So I guess it's between $50 million to $100 million. The impact is within that thing, but it is part of our financial statements. .
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesYes. [indiscernible] it's [ $88 million ] to stop wondering which end of the spectrum and it's $88 million is that's out the effect of the increasing the weight of the downsize scenario had on our ECL charge in Q1. And as [indiscernible] increase overall was due to us not skewing the provisioning on to Q4. We've taken it equally over 4 quarters to -- hope you will make your jobs easier as analysts.
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesThe fourth question is on the interest rate outlook has changed for the year. Does that have any impact on your new model?
Noman Ali
ExecutivesSo from a trade perspective, we had 3 rate cuts in 2025. The last 1 in December 25. From a -- I guess, from a budgeting perspective, we had budgeted 1 rate cut in April and 1 in September. However, I think with the current uncertainty we will see where the interest rates go, but we'll continue monitoring it because -- given the...
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesThat's slightly -- look less slightly.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesYes. Yes. So currently, it looks less likely that they will come back. Yes. .
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesAnd just on interest sensitivity.
Rahul Bajaj
AnalystsSo on interest sensitivity, I mean, any 25 basis point downward share costs around $60 million impact on an NII from a NIM perspective around per annum and 5 basis points down the day back on the [indiscernible].
Mohamed Farhan
ExecutivesI think that's what we have for today in terms of audio and the Q&A box. So that comes to the end of our Commercial Bank [indiscernible] part of earnings conference call. We thank everyone for joining us the call. Have a good day.
Stephen Moss
ExecutivesIf you have any more questions, contact Farhan, and we will be talking to analysts over the next few days. So if you have any further questions, don't hesitate to reach out. Thank you for your attention.
Noman Ali
ExecutivesThank you.
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