The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited (TRIG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Mohammed Zaheer
executiveGood afternoon, everyone, and a very warm welcome to TRIG's 2026 Capital Markets Seminar on this very cold day, but at least it's windy. For those I haven't met, my name is Mohammed Zaheer, and I head up Listed Investor Relations here at InfraRed. It's great to see so many of you in person today. And of course, a warm welcome to those joining us online as well. Just a few matters of housekeeping before we get started. Firstly, on fire safety. We're not expecting a fire drill. So if you do hear the alarm, please follow the fire marshal in an orderly fashion out of the building. Secondly, we are recording the session. So please phones on silent and a recording will be available at the end of this session on the TRIG website. And thirdly, the format. So we will have 5 sessions. We'll break roughly halfway through that, and then we'll take questions, please, at the end. So quickly turning to the agenda. The Chair will open with a strategic context and how this informs capital allocation both in the near and medium term. Gianluca Minella, our Head of Research here at InfraRed, will then set the scene with a session on how European markets are changing and give us a market overview. And then we move on to the main strategic sessions of the day, and these are disciplined capital allocation that Minesh will take us through, reinvestment and cash flow visibility, which Phil will take us through; and then finally, portfolio optimization from Chris. We'll bring all of this together at the end with the sessions highlights that Minesh will take us through. And then Richard Morse, our Chair, will conclude remarks before we go to Q&A. We're aiming to be done by 4:00 p.m. with further refreshments after this. We're delighted to be joined by the wider TRIG Board in addition to the Chair, and they will be here around afterwards to talk to whoever would like to stick around. So with that, it's my pleasure to hand over to TRIG's Chair, Richard Morse, to get us underway.
Richard Morse
executiveThank you, Mo. And can I add my thanks to everyone joining us today either here in the room or online. I want to start today's session by providing a strategic overview on behalf of TRIG's Board of Directors. The scale and duration of TRIG's discount to NAV and the proximity of our first continuation vote in June have entailed intense scrutiny of all aspects of our strategy by the Board. That's why today marks an important milestone for TRIG. Energy transition and energy security continue to be important themes. So TRIG's fundamental investment case should be compelling to generate resilient income and capital growth from a high-quality geographically diversified and expertly managed portfolio of wind, solar and battery storage assets. As a result, our message today is that TRIG has a compelling medium-term growth opportunity. However, we are also acutely aware of the persistent discount to NAV at which our shares have been trading over time. As a result, the Board has consulted widely with shareholders and taken independent advice on how best to address that discount. Today's presentation, which forms the basis of our proposals for continuation, is the result of months of careful consideration and consultation, focusing on key topics such as our dividend policy, capital allocation policy, our optimal balance sheet, and our management structure and approach. Having considered all TRIG's options, we have concluded that it is in shareholders' interests to clarify the KPIs that we are putting in place for the company, its Board, and its managers for the coming 12 months with the objective of narrowing the NAV discount. And these represent an increase in scale and pace that the Board considers appropriate and necessary. To that end, let me highlight 3 commitments that the Board is making today. First, dividends. We have reaffirmed our commitment to our progressive dividend policy while aiming to achieve a sustainable dividend cover between 1.1x and 1.2x. We reconfirm our dividend target of 7.55p per share for 2026 as satisfying both those criteria. We know how much our investors value resilient income, and this remains a core priority for the Board and for the managers. Second, cash generation. We are targeting GBP 400 million of cash to be raised over the next 12 months, principally from asset disposals, but complemented by modest debt issuance to optimize our balance sheet. This includes the GBP 100 million worth of disposals that will complete the aggregate objective set out in 2025. The additional GBP 300 million reflects our determination to put greater pace and scale behind our disposal program. We are very close to realizing our first significant disposal and have nominated advisers for the remainder, which are in progress. Third, capital allocation. In generating cash, we intend to deploy the proceeds to improve shareholder returns to provide greater balance sheet flexibility and to enhance existing portfolio assets. Importantly, at our current share price, the Board will not pursue new third-party investments. Instead, proceeds will be deployed where they create the most value for shareholders, specifically through the prompt completion of the existing GBP 150 million share buyback program, which has just less than GBP 50 million to run as of today, a reduction in our RCF borrowings by repaying the GBP 240 million that is presently drawn down at the end of -- well, as at the end of March this year, providing greater balance sheet flexibility, and the allocation of GBP 50 million to internal investments. By internal, we refer to follow-on investments aimed at enhancing the existing portfolio. And critically, these will only be pursued so long as they demonstrably exceed the hurdle rate of about 13% implied by share buybacks on a risk-adjusted basis. Successful delivery of these targets would lead the company to have about GBP 75 million of surplus capital. That is assuming completion of the share buyback program, full repayment of the RCF, and completing our internal investments. The use of this surplus will be determined by the Board at the time, in line with capital allocation priorities. These are summarized on this slide, which also provides an overview of expected allocation subject to share price levels. The hurdle rate for buybacks is presently the key benchmark for us when assessing internal investments. And as I said, we presently calculate that on today's share price to be about 13%. Buybacks will tie the dividend and hence, offering attractive returns at our present discount level. Were the NAV discount to reduce, that could bring additional growth-oriented investment opportunities into focus, but buyback returns will still continue to be the relevant hurdle. In the same vein, while our immediate priority is to reduce the RCF to 0, we will still be able to use the facility in the future within reasonable measures and subject to future developments in our share price. Alongside these commitments, we've also listened closely to shareholder feedback regarding our management structure, including some voices that advocated in-housing of management and/or retendering of the management roles. After extensive consultation and consideration, the Board has concluded with the benefit of independent advice that retention of the existing management structure with its distinct investment and operations manager roles is in the best interest of shareholders as is the retention of our present incumbent managers in those roles. They are best placed to deliver the program that I've described above, and they retain our full confidence. In this context, the Board is pleased to have secured improved investment and operations management arrangements. To further improve alignment between managers and shareholders, we have agreed with the managers that from the 1st of July 2026, their management fees will be based solely on market capitalization. This is subject to a successful vote in favor of continuation. Had this been the fee arrangement in the most recent quarter, it would have resulted in a 19% saving for the company. This is on top of the 28% saving that we negotiated last year, and we welcome the manager's agreement to those lower fees. So we look forward to working with the managers who are also significant shareholders in their own right, to deliver the strategy on the revised terms that we have agreed. Our confidence in the plan is rooted in our track record of delivery, best illustrated by the 25% increase in dividends since IPO at an average net dividend cover of 1.2x. That is testament to TRIG's commitment to delivering a resilient income to shareholders. Our colleagues from InfraRed and RES will outline what's been achieved in recent months. But for now, I'd like to put a spotlight on the following achievements. First of all, meeting the full year dividend target for 2025, fully covered in cash despite considerable external challenges. Second, accelerating the pace of our share buyback program with GBP 101 million of the announced GBP 150 million program already achieved. And third, repaying GBP 192 million of project level debt, which has allowed us to maintain a conservative gearing profile. These headline numbers add to several other good news items regarding the enhancement and development of our portfolio of assets, which will be discussed later in this meeting. So in closing this prefatory section, while we are focused on decisive actions for further discount management in the short-term, this seminar is here to help us keep in mind the longer-term picture. TRIG offers a compelling investment case, thanks to a geographically diversified defensive portfolio in one of the most important structural trends of our generation, energy transition, including the continued electrification of our economies. The Board remains convinced of the medium-term opportunity for resilient income and capital growth, and it is by addressing the share price discount head on and maintaining our disciplined approach to capital allocation that we will best-position TRIG for this opportunity. All of us on the TRIG Board, thank you for your continued support and engagement. And I will now hand over to the team for the presentation, starting with Gianluca to discuss the market opportunity. Thank you.
Gianluca Minella
executiveSo good afternoon, everybody. My name is Gianluca Minella. As Mo said, I'm responsible for research at InfraRed Capital Partners. I joined about 2 years ago from ADIA, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the sovereign wealth fund of the Abu Dhabi government, where I was responsible for portfolio strategy and research. And early in my career, I actually started my journey at Enel being actively involved in the IPO of Enel Green Power, their Renewable Energy division. And it's really interesting to see how much has changed in the renewable energy market today. So what I've been asked to do is over 10 minutes, briefly guide you through the main changes that have taken place. in the renewable energy market today to see where the opportunity lies for investors. And as I said, a lot have changed. But if we break it down fundamentally, there have been changes on the supply side, energy security, and system resilience. On the demand side, we talk about energy transition, but actually, we've wrote about the fact that it's an energy addition recently. Demand is growing rapidly. And finally, in the marketplace where prices form and energy is exchanged. What is happening exactly? Well, on the supply side, we are all witnessing the meaningful shocks that are happening to thermal energy and the understanding that domestic renewable energy production has become pivotal and key, especially in Europe. On the demand side, we all know that topics such as AI are boosting demand for electricity. Just to give you an idea, by 2030, AI only will add 400 terawatt hours globally. It's the size -- is above the size of the consumption of the United Kingdom alone. And obviously, there is the topic of electrification of transport and of heating, which is adding demand to that. And finally, we know that all of this is happening in a marketplace which has completely changed over the years, where effectively more renewables mean more volatility, but also mean that we have 3 key objectives to reach: flexibility of the system, additional battery storage invested, and increased resilience of the grid to accommodate these changes. So let's start from supply. As I said, we all have in our eyes, the impact that the Middle East conflict has had on thermal energy effectively on oil and gas prices. Just to give you an idea, European LNG prices have been -- seen a volatility of around 30% since the beginning of the conflict. What does it mean, really? It means that governments are changing the priorities for European electricity systems. Number one, domestic generation becomes very important to mitigate geopolitical shocks linked to fossil fuels, which means that from a policy perspective, the mindset is shifting from only affordability of power, which has been a very important topic, also to resilience. And in some cases, in Europe, we are talking about [ serenity ] of power in certain markets. As I said, just think about the topic of AI, which really means that power availability goes beyond today. It's a key source of because having power means being able to host artificial intelligence potentially, which means boosting productivity and economic growth. So what policy is doing is, really, 3 key things: Number one, continuing to support renewables as a core supply. Renewables are not marginal anymore. They're not here only for the energy transition. They are core infrastructure. Number two, system robustness, meaning that the grid needs to be able to accommodate more renewables. But of course, we have a problem that the permitting speed and the grid build-out have been lagging a little bit. So a lot of focus is flowing into this key topic. And finally, long-duration battery storage and flexible capacities are becoming strategic complement to renewable energy. So 2 topics: renewables, storage linked to flexibility. On the demand side, well, Europe is not the United States. So the bad news is it's not growing at the speed in terms of power demand. But if you look at the compounded annual growth rate to 2035, we see that effectively power demand will be growing above GDP, even more so in the U.K. than the rest of Europe. And probably, if anything, I think these forecasts are a little bit on the conservative side. Now power demand is not only growing. It's changing in shape or form and changing the way power markets are operating. What does it really mean? A few examples. EVs, heat pumps, the electrification of industrial processes are driving a lift in electricity demand, but also in peak load. At the same time, AI is introducing when we think about data centers, concentrated and flexible loads to the system. Not all innovation is actually stressful for the system. It can also support the system, such as with the case of EV charging and demand response that can help smoothen the profile for electricity demand. What we know for sure is one thing that demand is growing in an uneven way in time and in different locations. And what it means, it means that power demand is running ahead of the flexibility that the system can provide. So flexibility is the key focus here. Well, if we think about renewables, we see that has been scaling meaningfully in the past. And we have seen that renewables-led supply systems have reshaped price formation and flexibility needs. We know today that low-cost renewables represent the most meaningful part of power systems, and we also know that this is the cheapest alternative to support incremental power demand. We also know that coal and nuclear are gradually declining and so is gas. Not only it is a source of volatility in power prices, but after all, although it's setting power prices in many countries, its share is falling in Europe, if anything, because independence from fossil fuels has become very, very important. Think about Germany and how important it is to replace Russian gas with alternative sources of energy to support its industrial base. But this clearly brings a couple of consequences. The main one is price volatility. More renewables mean more price volatility, which also means that battery storage becomes very important. And so the value is shifting from only energy production to energy production and flexibility. Volatility and flexibility, an issue and opportunity. Where there is an issue, sometimes there is an opportunity, and that's where the opportunity lies today. And we know this because not only the market is recognizing this, also regulation is recognizing this. Let's take a step back and think about how regulation evolved over time in Europe. Phase 1, subsidies. Renewables were effectively subsidized to ensure that capacity could grow. We have then moved to a transition phase, which to some extent is where we are today in which PPAs have replaced and market mechanisms have, to some extent, replaced feed-in tariffs or stable contracts provided -- subsidies provided by the government. But it's also where renewable build-out has outpaced the grid capacity. And now we're entering a third phase. Policymakers are recognizing this. If you remember what I said before, there are 2 key points here where we see the market evolving and which represents an opportunity for renewable energy investors. Number one, policy is aligning with the need of system support and flexibility. Policy is aware of this. Number two, we are starting to see the introduction of mechanisms that provide a floor sometimes to power prices or fixed price revenues such as, for example, with the wholesale contract for difference in the U.K. So this is just an example. So also regulation is moving in the right direction. So what does this all mean, to conclude, for renewable energy investors? As we published in our infrastructure survival guide for 2025, renewables investors are moving to some extent from the passenger seat to the driving seat. Why? Because value creation is increasingly focused on active asset management. We still have the long-term contracts. We still have the visibility, but we have optionality, optionality to create value. Where is this optionality going? Number one, operational optimization. Think about repowering or recontracting of PPAs at more favorable rates. Number two, battery storage and flexibility through colocation, the ability to use battery storage to improve the revenue profile. This is something we are seeing today where the volume of PPA and battery storage contracts continues to grow in Europe and reached about 17 gigs in 2025. And finally, active market participation and more dynamic contracting. So these are the 3 key variables that we identify in the market. This concludes my presentation, and I will hand over to Minesh.
Minesh Shah
executiveThank you, Gianluca, and a warm welcome to everyone from me. Gianluca has given us a very clear explanation as to why the energy transition or the energy addition remains an important investment theme for investors' portfolios, driven by energy security and the structural growth in power demand. And then why within that, renewables and battery storage are central to the transition. Over the remainder of the afternoon, we'll focus back on TRIG. I will cover capital allocation framework and how it is applied. Phil, TRIG's CFO, will focus on our cash flow projections, including the growth arising from the execution of the strategy we set out a year ago at last year's Capital Markets seminar. And finally, Chris, TRIG's COO, will delve into some of the exciting value enhancement initiatives that we are working on across the portfolio. So in this session, we'll cover the sources of cash, surplus operational cash flows in excess of the dividend, i.e., the dividend cover as well as disposals and debt issuance. And then we'll look at the different options for the use of cash, dividends, share buybacks, debt reduction, and reinvestment, and we'll discuss how we prioritize between the choices we have. The numbers we show on this slide are as of 31st of March 2026 to just provide a consistent date for the numbers. The headline being that over the next 12 months, we are projecting around GBP 25 million of surplus cash and looking to raise a further GBP 400 million, mostly through disposals and complemented by modest debt issuance, which will be used to complete the current share buyback program, where we are currently buying back shares at about GBP 8 million to GBP 10 million a month, reduce short-term borrowings to enable greater capital allocation flexibility and invest GBP 50 million into projects in construction. Now this would leave about GBP 75 million available for allocation as the cash is realized and in line with the capital allocation framework. So now let's go through the sources of cash, and then we'll come back to the uses. Between 2026 and 2030, the portfolio is projected to generate around GBP 2 billion of operational cash flows, which will repay GBP 1 billion of debt, pay around GBP 850 million of dividends at today's dividend level, and GBP 150 million of surplus cash. This healthy position reflects the structural characteristics of the portfolio, the amortizing fixed interest rate project level debt, the high proportion of contracted and inflation-linked revenues, and the incremental contribution from projects already in construction. Now importantly, the chart on the screen is presented after debt service and assumes no new equity issuance. It reflects how we actually manage the portfolio rather than an optimized or a theoretical construct. The upward trajectory in the distributable cash flow per share is important. Against the current dividend level, headroom increases, which expands capital allocation flexibility over time. And TRIG's self-funding characteristic matters. It is the difference between a resilient portfolio and one that is forced into decisions by external financing conditions. And Phil will cover more on our cash flow projections, the growth that can be delivered from the execution of our medium-term strategy, and the resilience of those cash flows under downside scenarios. The strength of our cash generation gives us choices, including whether to continue holding assets or rotate the portfolio where it improves outcomes. Now disposals for us are about further increasing the durability of the portfolio to continue generating healthy, repeatable operating cash flows. Every potential disposal is assessed against the balanced scorecard, incorporating the impact of the potential disposal on yield and expected returns, the diversification impact on the portfolio, the enhancement or repowering potential, as well as operational risks. Now when this lens is applied consistently, the assets that tend to rise to the top are predominantly wind assets located furthest from demand centers, later life assets with a limited enhancement runway, and projects with less scope for repowering or colocation. Now since 2023, we have executed GBP 210 million of disposals. All have been wind assets, and they have all been completed above carrying value. That reflects discipline and the benefit of being one in the first peer group to start rotating the portfolio. However, the current market for renewables projects as well as the company's competitive position resulting from its share price, in that context, pricing flexibility is required to dispose of the right assets and realize capital to increase allocation flexibility. And as we stated in the RNS this morning, the most advanced of our disposal processes is in relation to a U.K. offshore wind farm sale where we have received an acceptable offer price and are in the later stages of diligence and transaction documentation. Importantly, disposals are about portfolio rotation and enhancement, not retreat. Amongst the sources of funds, disposals are also complemented by debt issuance. Now our balance sheet is deliberately conservative. We have about GBP 1.7 billion of project level debt, and this is fixed rate, amortizing, and non-recourse. This is complemented by GBP 200 million of amortizing private placement debt and a revolving credit facility. Importantly, the RCF is a source of flexibility rather than structural leverage. Now we expect the disposals in train to significantly reduce leverage, both through RCF reduction and project level debt in the assets sold. Now as I said, the vast majority of our debt has fixed interest rate and amortizes. The amortization profile is aligned to our profile of fixed price revenues. And therefore, our leverage naturally reduces over time. And as a result, we have low interest rate risk and low refinancing risk. This means that as the revenue mix changes over time, we can also respond with the balance sheet. The energy sector and policy is evolving in real time. Our strategy will continue to be to seek fixed price revenues. And depending on what the revenue mix looks like in the future, we can flexibly apply leverage accordingly. We have strong conviction that bullet repayment debt is poorly suited to finite life assets. While it can flatter short-term dividend cover, it introduces refinancing risk at maturity and sustained exposure to interest rate volatility, particularly as the initial government-backed tariff rolls off. We feel that is a distinction that is often underappreciated by the market. Our approach materially reduces risk and preserves optionality, particularly in environments where interest rates are volatile or capital markets are less favorable. All other things being equal, the portfolio will naturally delever over time. That is not an outcome we are forced into, and it creates flexibility. On a fully merchant basis, we estimate that the portfolio, because it is diversified, could support about 20% leverage or about GBP 600 million of debt capacity. Now the key point is that the balance sheet does not force timing or direction. Decisions can be taken deliberately from a position of strength. That optionality is what allows us to be selective about where future returns come from. Now what you saw on the previous slide is the base case. In practice, we seek to source new revenue price fixes. Indeed, we have sourced 11 in the last 3 years, 5 with corporates, 2 new feed-in tariffs that are government-backed for repowering projects, and 4 capacity market contracts for batteries. The most notable new offtake agreement was the one we signed at the end of last year with Virgin Media. The contract was for 10 years and for 2% of our total generation capacity. Now on this slide, what you can see are the consequences of a scenario where we sign a similar contract each year with such contracts eventually comprising about 20% of our generation capacity. And what you can see on this chart is that adds about GBP 200 million of debt capacity by 2030, thereby creating additional sources of capital. Now having looked at the different sources of cash, we return to the capital allocation framework, which Richard introduced earlier. The framework you see here is that which we have been applying under the Board's direction. And its application has become more evident as the shares have traded at a material discount to NAV. Cash generated from the portfolio is assessed against 3 potential uses: dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment. Dividends remain central to the proposition. Their maintenance, progression, and growth prospects are important for our shareholders. Our role is to ensure that they are supported by durable, repeatable operating cash flows rather than leverage or financial engineering or optimistic assumptions about the markets. Then buybacks, which are treated as an active investment decision. Today, buying back shares offers approximately 13% IRR. It improves distributable cash flow per share for long-term shareholders, thereby improving future dividend growth prospects. And then finally, reinvestment, which is pursued where it exceeds the return available from buybacks on a risk-adjusted basis. That comparison is explicit. It is live. This is not a theoretical framework. A very recent and tangible example was a decision we took to sell a development position rather than build it out ourselves, a sale process that is underway. When we assess the risk reward balance against buying back our own shares at a prevailing price, a decision to build the project would have been marginal despite its projected double-digit returns and the overall benefit it would have had to portfolio diversification. Rather than committing capital, we chose to crystallize development value, and avoid the CapEx altogether. This is capital allocation doing exactly what it is supposed to do. Our job is not to maximize activity or growth for its own sake. It is to apply this discipline consistently. Now on this next slide, we bring together the sources and uses of funds on how it might impact portfolio construction. Now this is going to be a very busy slide, so I'll build it up slowly. We start with the operational portfolio as of December 2025, a portfolio that you see is 81% wind, 14% solar, and 5% battery storage. We then add the projects in construction, which increases batteries from 5% to 8% and reduces solar and wind pro rata. We then have 2 bars that represent capital realized from here through disposals and debt issuance. Firstly, the GBP 400 million we're seeking to realize over the next 12 months and then a further GBP 300 million out to 2030, a total of GBP 700 million. Now on the disposal slides, we highlighted a focus on reducing exposure to the wind sector. Reducing the wind portfolio by GBP 700 million, itself, begins to rebalance the portfolio, such that wind has come down from 81% to 71% and solar and batteries going up. The GBP 700 million is then available for capital allocation with buybacks acting as a hurdle rate. At the current hurdle rate, as Richard said, we are not pursuing new external investments, i.e., third-party acquisitions. Now the internal investment opportunities we have may well beat the hurdle rate. For example, projected returns on co-located batteries in Spain is well into the mid-teens. Building out our internal battery pipeline and if we were able to acquire a solar portfolio, which, of course, would not be possible at the current share price, but may be possible in the future, then we could get to our 2030 target portfolio of 60% wind, 25% solar and 15% batteries. Now when we get to that mix will be informed by the application of the capital allocation framework. The ambition to further diversification remains. It is the timing -- the time frame that is responsive and flexible. Buybacks remain the benchmark against which new investment decisions are assessed. And in the meantime, TRIG benefits from a portfolio that has good diversification today. Bringing this session together, our message is simple. Capital allocation must be both informed by the prevailing market conditions and support the long-term prospects of the company. We are looking to realize GBP 400 million of capital over the next 12 months. The allocation of this capital will follow the Board's priorities: complete the current share buyback program promptly, reduce short-term debt to create greater balance sheet flexibility, and progress our proprietary internal investment pipeline where the opportunities exceed the hurdle rates set by buybacks on a risk-adjusted basis. After all this, we project GBP 75 million for future allocation, which will be done in line with the capital allocation framework as the cash is realized. We plan and act on the basis that higher interest rates may persist for longer than many expect. In that scenario, the balance sheet and the portfolio remain resilient. And if conditions improve, the foundations we have laid in relation to leverage, disciplined allocation, and portfolio balance will help propel shareholder returns. So in the first half of this afternoon's seminar, you've heard Richard and me speak to the immediate priorities of the Board and how we, as a management team, are implementing the Board's initiatives. You've heard us also refer to the medium-term growth opportunities. This stems from the enhanced strategy that we set out this time last year. After the break, we will focus on that medium-term strategy. Phil will take us through the operational cash flow projections in more detail, the benefits of reinvestment, and the resilience under downside scenarios. And then Chris will walk us through some operational case studies. We'll return at [ 10 to 3 ]. Thank you. [Break]
Minesh Shah
executiveWelcome back to the 2026 Capital Markets seminar for the Renewables Infrastructure Group. In the first half of this afternoon's seminar, you've heard from Richard and me speak to the immediate priorities of the Board and how we, as a management team, are implementing the Board's initiatives. You've also heard us refer to the medium-term growth opportunities. This stems from the enhanced strategy we set out this time last year, which we framed using the wheel behind me. Starting with our -- how we fund the strategy, which I covered before the break, then how we reinvest for growth through construction and development activities, how we enhance revenues and then enhance the operational performance of the assets themselves. Phil will now take us through the benefits of reinvestment and the resilience provided by revenue management under downside scenarios through the lens of our medium-term cash flow projections. And then Chris will walk us through some operational case studies. Phil?
Phil George
executiveThank you, Minesh, and good afternoon, everyone. I will go through TRIG's cash flow visibility, dividend cover, reinvestment, and revenue management activities. And this slide covers the areas I'll speak to. As Richard and Minesh have said, reinvestment is rigorously tested against buybacks. And as Chris will take you through, TRIG has a proprietary pipeline of higher returning investment opportunities that TRIG can invest in or if returns are not significant, that TRIG can trade. In this session, we will walk through a series of dividend scenarios and show the benefit of reinvestment and other scenarios demonstrating the resilience of the portfolio. Each is presented after repayment of long-term amortizing debt in the TRIG capital structure. And at the end of my session, we will include a slide of dividend cover before debt amortization. So reinvestment is central to income and capital growth. Reinvestment is the engine of our self-funded model. Surplus cash is recycled into development pipeline at IRRs of around 15% -- sorry, 13% or more, which both grows capital value and strengthens the sustainability of the dividend. Some projects in the development pipeline may not meet the hurdle rate, in which case, we will seek to divest the position and crystallize value. And Minesh provides an example of where such a decision was taken recently. The reinvestment isn't speculative. It's disciplined redeployment in a proprietary pipeline that we know well. The compounding effect of these investments is material. Each reinvestment cycle extends portfolio duration and adds incremental distributable cash flow. This slide shows reinvestment in higher returning projects improves dividend cover, especially over the longer term. Over time, we [ steer ] dividend cover from where it is today towards and through our 1.1 to 1.2 steady-state target, providing a runway for greater dividend growth. It's a structural feature of the strategy, not a one-off benefit. And this underpins our total NAV return ambition. Our total return proposition is built on this reinvestment discipline, a combination of dividend yield and capital growth, where reinvestment is the primary lever for the capital growth component. The other important assumption in these projections is the level of dividend growth. And we've assumed a modest dividend growth of 16% over the forecast period. And this reflects that the dividend is already at a very healthy level of 7% of NAV and 11% of the share price. It reflects our desire to rebalance the components of shareholder returns between income and growth and provide resilience in downside scenarios. But as you can see, if we reinvest, then there's runway to increase the dividend by more than this. So reinvestment materially increases distributable cash flows. So with versus without reinvestment comparison tells the story clearly. Without reinvestment, dividend cover is steady for the next 15 years and then declines as assets age. With reinvestment, we see a fundamentally different trajectory, growing distributable cash flows over the longer term. Over time, the growth differential between the 2 cases is substantial. And the spread between the 2 scenarios demonstrates why capital discipline matters so much. Reinvestment is not about chasing growth. It's about maintaining and growing income per share for shareholders. And this also answers the dividend sustainability question. Investors ask whether our dividend is durable. The answer is that reinvestment, at accretive, returns is what converts the finite asset base into a growing one. And this is the mechanism behind our target dividend cover of 1.1x to 1.2x at steady state. This slide shows the dividend is covered across different power price scenarios, and we stress tested the dividend cover across the range of power price forecasts. TRIG uses an average of 3 third-party power price curves as its base case. We want to see what happens under a very conservative scenario, the lower curve, typically used by debt providers, and the more opportunistic one used by some peers. Under the lower power price forecast, the dividend remains covered after project debt repayment. And this is critical. It means our income isn't dependent on bullish power price assumptions, dividend security holds across the cycle. Under the higher curve, cover reaches approximately 2x by the end of the forecast. This illustrates the cash flow robustness of the portfolio. We're not asking investors to take much of a view on power prices to believe in the income story. The range of outcomes is positive across the different forecasts. The dividend cover projections are after repayment of long-term amortizing debt, which is fully repaid by the late 2030s. This slide shows the projected dividend cover trajectory over time for the range of power price forecasts. You can see the base case with reinvestment sits comfortably in the middle, providing a strong central trajectory for dividend cover comfortably above 1x and growing throughout. And the key message here is resilience. Our base case is not the upside case. We're showing that in the challenging power price market environment, the dividend is protected and a strong upside case if power markets are more favorable. Now I want to talk about revenue management, fixing power prices, swapping variable income for fixed price per megawatt hour income and the effect of doing this. The portfolio has a high proportion of fixed price income from contracts for difference, other subsidy income, fixed price PPAs, and hedges. With around 85% of the next 12 months and 75% in the next 5 years of revenues fixed per megawatt hour, we start with a strong base. We actively manage power price exposure and look to place fixes and hedges to maintain a high proportion of fixed income. This provides stronger visibility of cash flows, more resilient dividend cover, and lower NAV variability. Adding fixed income provides more debt capacity that is lower cost that can fund reinvestment at higher returns. And when fixing, we compare the expected merchant income to the fixed income. Fixed income is lower risk, and so we apply a lower discount rate to value those cash flows. Hence, if we can fix income at or close to our projected merchant pricing, then the valuation can be maintained and often increased while reducing risk in our forward cash flows. The reduced risk means we have a more predictable cash flow surplus to apply to reinvestment. And if power prices outturn lower than expected, the revenue fixes help protect reinvestment and dividend cover. Fixing revenues helps protect the dividend and funds growth. Revenue fixing is our primary tool for derisking cash flows, corporate PPAs, government-backed contracts, and short-term hedging all serve the same purpose, converting merchant exposure into contracted visible revenues. The Virgin Media O2 PPA is a good example of what a transaction can do, converting 2% of overall TRIG annual revenues into fixed price income at a good price. In a downside power price scenario, these fixes help keep the dividend covered and without fixing the lower power price scenario could start to reduce cover. Without fixing, we protect -- sorry, with fixing, we protect both the dividend and the surplus cash available for reinvestment, which is what makes the growth strategy self-funding. This is a repeatable strategy, not a one-off. If we assume we can secure an equivalent PPA to the VMO2 PPA each year, the cumulative effect on cash flow visibility is significant. This is an active ongoing program, not a static hedge book. So this slide covers our revenue management initiatives. We've made substantial progress over the last 12 months. The table sets out key revenue management activities we've taken from the VMO2 corporate PPA to battery capacity market contracts, repowering subsidies, and short-term fixes. This portfolio-wide effort across multiple strategies. Each initiative is assessed on both valuation and cash flow accretion. We're not fixing revenues at any price. For each action, we consider the valuation impact of the fix and often we can fix and maintain or improve NAV whilst reducing revenue risk. We also consider the impact on near-term cash flows and overall recent fixes have been accretive here also. Discipline here reduces cash flow risk and maintains dividend cover. Our track record of revenue management is strong, and we're actively pursuing more initiatives to continue to improve the quality of the cash flows. Investors want to see that revenue management is more than just a slide in the presentation. This table is a proof point. It demonstrates execution capability, which underpins our confidence in the future revenue strategy. And this slide shows our revenue management approach across near-term and longer-term time horizons and covers the revenue areas I've discussed. We have a clear pipeline of initiatives. We're pursuing further 10-year corporate PPAs, framework agreements for portfolio level fixes, Spanish battery development for complementary merchant revenues, and capacity market contracts. We also have development projects we expect to bid into future U.K. CfD allocation rounds. And battery development adds a new revenue dimension. As batteries come online, they contribute capacity market revenue and trading income that is structurally different from the generation assets, which diversifies our revenue base and reduces correlation with wholesale power prices, which is a natural complement to our wind and solar portfolio. The U.K. government recently announced the proposed introduction of wholesale contracts for difference. This is long-term fixed price government-backed revenue contracts for operational renewables assets. This proposal will get consulted on later this year and TRIG and the managers will be an active participants in that. Extension of CfD to operational projects is a policy that the managers have been engaging with government on, and we hope this initiative will provide TRIG with good options to add high-quality fixed price revenues. So this slide shows that capital structure choices significantly affect the headline dividend cover. This slide addresses a common comparability challenge. Investors looking across the sector will see different dividend cover numbers that reflect capital structure decisions rather than underlying cash generation quality. We believe amortizing long-term finance is a prudent approach. It provides better flexibility as the portfolio evolves and the revenue mix shifts. Yes, it provides a lower headline dividend cover than a non-amortizing debt structure, but it also carries lower refinancing risk and it preserves balance sheet optionality. On a gross basis before project debt repayment, our projected dividend cover is over 2x. This chart shows the higher power curve, but the message will be similar using TRIG's base case power curve. It's a like-for-like comparison with peers using non-amortizing structures. So we're showing this so investors can make a fair assessment. Our underlying cash flow generation is strong and the difference in headline cover is a function of prudent financing rather than weaker fundamentals. And a quick sum up before I hand over to Chris. So reinvestment of higher returns improves dividend cover and ensures the portfolio life is extended and the portfolio diversification has continued. We use an average of 3 power curve forecast, which means our base case is the middle case, not the highest case, and our projected dividend cover remains reasonable under the lower power price scenario. We're actively managing our revenues, securing corporate PPAs, entering into fixes and hedges, signing capacity market contracts and new long-term government contract for difference, adding fixed revenues and improving cash flow visibility, underpinning the dividend cover and securing reinvestment cash flows. Our debt structure is intentionally amortizing, reducing debt as projects move through their subsidy periods. And when considering dividend cover, this should be factored in. Many thanks for listening. I should now hand over to Chris to talk about the work we're doing to add value through development projects and enhancing our portfolio.
Chris Sweetman
executiveHello. I'm Chris Sweetman, TRIG's COO. I'm from the RES side, so focused on the operations management. I'm going to take you through some of the ways in which we're adding value and building long-term growth into the portfolio. Alongside TRIG's 2.3 gigawatt operational portfolio, we've got 900 megawatts of development pipeline to take into construction by 2030. I'll go through each of these in more detail in the coming slides. But fundamentally, they consist of repowering, so 20% repowering is simply rebuilding existing sites with new equipment. 30% colocation, so adding different technology types to existing sites where there's a clear structural benefit of being so. And 50% greenfield, so brand-new stand-alone development projects, which improve the overall portfolio technology mix. As you've heard throughout today's presentations, all of these opportunities will only be progressed if they meet our strict hurdle requirements. But of course, building and retaining these projects within the portfolio is only one route. They can also be sold to third-parties who is deemed more attractive. So we'll start with repowering. This is a homegrown source of development opportunities. It's replacing existing old wind turbines and electrical infrastructure with modern equipment, often increasing the capacity of the site, but always extending their sites and the portfolio life. The first site, Cuxac, was originally built by Red, and I've been involved in this wind project since the start of its original construction. I was e-mailed the photo on the left in 2006 to celebrate the first kilowatt hour of generation from Cuxac. RES have been developing and constructing wind farms since 1981. So we've got a wealth of capabilities and experience. Originally, this site had a 15-year government tariff. I helped oversee its commercial arrangements, construction, debt placement, and operation whilst it was owned by RES and then when it's purchased by TRIG in 2013. The final debt payment was made in 2022 when the tariff ended. So clearly, it was debt-free when it was dismantled over the last few months. Now turning to new site. So you can see here, as we repower Cuxac, we're keeping the same basic site layout, allowing us to reuse turbine locations, crane pads, roads, and cable routes. So it's worth saying a little bit about what we mean by development, what that actually consists of. So over the last few years, alongside our partners, we've extended the leases for both the sites and the track roads. and access roads as well. Also assessed the grid capacity. We've redesigned the site. This means selecting the right turbine, the number, locations, crane pad, track layouts, cable routes, substation location. We've also obtained a new grid connection agreement. We performed various environmental and technical studies, consulting with stakeholders, and submitted and obtained planning permission. Then we've tendered and placed all the construction contracts. For Cuxac, we selected turbines more than double the size of the original ones. So not just extending the life, but more than doubling the capacity and underlying value. A new 20-year government-backed index-linked tariff was secured, reducing project risk by providing wonderful long-term revenue as well as giving us the option for project level debt during the subsidy. Our long-term positive engagement with local communities and decision-makers made the planning process more predictable and cost efficient, reducing risk by avoiding the need for appeals to deliver the most appropriate project for the site. We also use long-term wind data taken from the site as well as good performance data to feed into forecast energy yield, which helps to reduce performance risk. Ultimately, this repowering extends the site life with a cost-efficient, reduced risk approach, delivering long-term stable revenues. So what comes next? Within any portfolio, sites age. At the end of life, having repaid any debt alongside the subsidy or fixed price contracts, then have a choice, decommission and walk away or cost efficiently redevelop the sites over the last few years of their operation so that when you're ready to turn off the old site, you're also ready to rebuild it as a new site. So repowerings will naturally flow through as projects age. The important point is we start the process for each site nice and early. We use our deep experience to follow our tried and tested development processes. And we deliver low-risk, long-term value-accretive opportunities for us to build out when the time is right. I'll now move on to batteries. Battery is an important part of renewables focused grid, but within the renewables portfolio, they add a whole lot more. Within the U.K., they provide a natural price hedge. Here you can see in Red, the onshore wind electricity prices that vary a lot, often due to windy periods when there's low electricity demand or vice versa. But that's okay. That's why we placed a lot of the price fixes within the market seeking to fix at those higher levels. As these prices move around throughout the day, they provide a great opportunity for batteries to buy low, sell high. If we now overlay battery revenues onto the graph, you can see that they're really well inversely correlated. When the wind farms are earning less, the batteries are earning more. This natural hedge is a great feature of our portfolio. The trick to achieve the best balance, we're targeting around 15% of the portfolio to batteries. These can be located anywhere on the grid where there's appropriate capacity. So that was all about the U.K. where electricity pricing varies with wind, but now we have a look at Spain. In Spain, electricity pricing varies with solar irradiation. So that's a lot more predictable within each day because you know when it's going to be daytime. So when it's sunny, during off-peak demand periods, electricity prices decrease. So in Spain, where we have 2 large solar projects, it makes perfect sense to have batteries on site physically connected to the solar farms and the local grid. You then have the flexibility to charge the batteries overnight then release the electricity during the higher demand breakfast period. Then again, you can charge them from the solar park at the lunchtime low price to release during the high-priced evening dinner time. The green vertical lines provide an indication of the price spreads available during these 2 periods. Both of these 2 different approaches provide double-digit returns. I'm now going to move on and look briefly at how we see the development pipeline coming through. This slide pulls together the current battery and near-term repowering projects, which broadly delivers around 100 megawatts per annum with project level supporting -- project level debt supporting some of these. As with repowering wind, where also has a long experience in developing and constructing battery projects. We've been doing this since 2014 with over 50 projects and more than 2.6 gigawatts. So we're a great place to deliver and oversee batteries within the portfolio. So what I hope you'll take from these last few slides is that there's a clear benefit of batteries within such a renewables portfolio. Repowering projects is a lower risk and efficient way of delivering portfolio longevity and that we have the right skills and investment discipline to deliver returns to investors. I'm going to turn to performance enhancements. We've been delivering enhancements for quite some time now with over GBP 100 million worth delivered over the last 6 years. That includes GBP 32 million validated last year. To deliver enhancements, we utilize specialist capabilities from across Red, either deploying the enhancements themselves or providing technical insight into the proposals from others or indeed in assessing commercial aspects of proposals. Just stepping through these briefly. On blade hardware, we did a deep dive at last year's Capital Markets seminar, which if you missed it, is worth a watch back. Ancillary services, these vary by country. But generally, they provide income from the various activities to support or improve quality of electricity on the grid. There's often quite a technical aspect in services being provided, and they might be easier for new sites or those with upgraded control systems to perform. But it's often an early mover advantage. So it's an area that we pay a lot of attention to. There's also enhanced monitoring, which is accessing and analyzing high-frequency data at a turbine or component level. This identifies inaccuracies or improvements in the way in which the equipment is operated. These activities can reduce wear and tear as well as improve energy yields. But right now, we're going to focus a little bit more on software upgrades. Software upgrades is a key part of delivering energy yield increases, lots of different types, but we're going to focus on those that increase energy yields by applying generation curve upgrades. This chart simply shows an indication of how many hours per year the wind blows at various speeds. Clearly, there's more power available during high wind speeds, but there's also fewer hours in the year when there are those high wind speeds. So when we're targeting additional energy, it makes sense to look at different opportunities available from turbine manufacturers or developing in-house, which are applied at different wind speeds. Now overlaying the generation curve. At the lower wind speeds, the pitch of the blades can be adjusted along with generator torque to increase the energy that can be extracted from the wind. As you look at the ramp from the left-hand side, you can see how the generation curve has been lifted up to deliver extra generation. The wind is frequently within this range, so even a small change can deliver a nice uplift, which is well within the turbine and site's capacities. So that makes this type of enhancement widely applicable. At the middle wind speeds, generators can be operated, which effectively increases the capacity of the wind turbine and the site as a whole. Some sites have a tight grid capacity or design parameters, so they may be less suited to this type of enhancement. But one example where it has been successfully deployed is at the large Merkur Offshore Wind Farm, where each turbine capacity was increased from 6.0 to 6.5 megawatts. There are further enhancements for some sites at the very top of the wind speed range, enabling generation at wind speeds at which the turbine would otherwise have turned itself off to protect itself from damage. So with those, not only does it provide additional energy yield, but because of the way it's applied, actually reduces loading on the wind turbines, reducing wear and tear. These sort of software enhancements can really add 1% to 2% of energy yield. So they continue to be an area of real focus. Hopefully, I've conveyed the benefits of repowering older sites in delivering value and extending portfolio life, which we're well-placed to deliver on an ongoing basis. The batteries can deliver a range of different benefits within a wider renewables portfolio, depending upon how they're deployed and that the delivery of enhancements is a tried and tested approach, delivering material upside to the portfolio with more to follow. To conclude, ultimately, we have around 100 megawatts per annum of internally derived development opportunities with flexibility to build and retain or sell. And our active value enhancement program continues, building upon the GBP 100 million worth of value delivered already. Minesh, back to you.
Minesh Shah
executiveThank you, Chris. It really brings to life what active management means in practice and the expertise that each of our teams brings to our respective disciplines. So bringing this afternoon together, we started with a fascinating session from Gianluca. It was evident that the energy transition or the energy addition is here. It permeates through society and through economies and therefore, exposure to this trend is an absolute must for investors' portfolios. Within this transition, the desire for greater energy security means renewables where there is no dependency on imported fossil fuels will be critical for U.K. and European economies. Economy-wide electrification, particularly of heating and cooling, transportation industry, and the growth of data demand are all supportive for generators. Simply put, more demand means more buyers, means higher power prices. And finally, the market is becoming more sophisticated. This lends itself to active management strategies. Capabilities in revenue management mean that we can and are directly contracting with corporates, and we'll be able to compare corporate arrangements with government offtake opportunities to determine the optimum approach for TRIG. Development capabilities mean we can extract more value from our existing sites. Operational capabilities mean that we can be at the leading edge of new development to enhance mid-life assets. Now we presented a strategy 12 months ago on how we will fund growth, how we will deploy capital and how we will enhance our assets commercially and operationally. Since the buyback program was launched, we have spent over GBP 100 million on buybacks to-date. We have bought back 128 million shares or about 5% of the company and are buying back at pace at the prevailing discount. In 2025, we deployed GBP 116 million on growth CapEx. Projects are only signed off to be built when they exceed the return hurdles set by buybacks on a risk-adjusted basis. This decision-making is live. Most recently, we decided not to build a project and instead seek to sell the position and crystallize value. And last year, we repaid GBP 192 million of project level debt. With 90% of our debt being fixed rate and amortizing, TRIG has low interest rate risk and low refinancing risks, characteristics that are key in an uncertain economic environment. Meanwhile, we have been actively enhancing the portfolio, new long-term inflation-linked revenue contracts, new corporate offtake agreements. And we are optimizing the portfolio, selling wind assets, building batteries to complement our generation assets, repowering projects to extend the life of our portfolio and rolling out hardware and software upgrades across the portfolio. This is what we mean by active management. Now we are mindful of the share price, raising funds to give the Board capital allocation optionality is our priority. The Board has set us clear objectives. We upsized the private placement debt raise, maintain competitive tension to secure attractive financing rates. And we are conscious that shareholders are awaiting the completion of our 2025 capitalization realization target of GBP 300 million, of which GBP 100 million is left. On top of that, we have added GBP 300 million. In total, GBP 400 million to be realized in the next 12 months. And in that regard, we are advanced in selling a U.K. offshore wind project. And further disposal and debt processes are in train, adding that further GBP 300 to the capitalization realization target. These initiatives provide headroom to extend the share buyback program and invest in our proprietary development pipeline with the balance between the 2 to be dictated by the hurdle rate set by buybacks. We are comfortable with the level of the dividend, and we project 1.1x net dividend cover at least over the near-term, and that is after the repayment of project level debt. And as Phil showed, the dividend would be covered at the bottom of the range of power price forecasters that we use to improve -- to inform our projections. In the base case, with reinvestment, you've seen a path to doubling distributable cash flow per share over the forecast period. And finally, we have an internal proprietary development pipeline and operational capabilities to deliver the medium-term growth strategy. We firmly believe in that medium-term growth opportunity in front of TRIG and are fully cognizant of shareholders and the Board's immediate priorities. We believe we are well-positioned to deliver both. Thank you for your time and engagement. I will now hand back to Richard to conclude today's event.
Richard Morse
executiveThank you, Minesh, and thanks to the InfraRed and RES teams for putting this seminar together. Our core message today has been that TRIG has a compelling medium-term growth opportunity. The immediate priority for the Board in the near term is to address the discount to NAV, and we will go further and faster in our actions to support a sustainable share price recovery, which represents the best route to a position where we can take full advantage of that growth opportunity. As a Board, we will continue to monitor progress by the company on the clear set of objectives highlighted in this presentation. I'd like to close with just a few thoughts about our upcoming Annual General Meeting, which will take place on the 30th of June. The usual notice, including all relevant details, agenda resolutions, et cetera, will be released in the coming days. That will include a formal letter to all shareholders setting out the case for continuation based on today's presentation. And shareholders will then have the opportunity to vote on a specific resolution relating to the continuation of the trust. That will be the first continuation vote for the company following the amendment of the Articles of Association approved at last year's AGM. As a Board, we strongly encourage shareholders to join us in voting for the continuation of the company, which we believe to be in the best interest of shareholders now and even more so in the medium term for all the reasons described today. We look forward to furthering our dialogue with investors between now and our Annual General Meeting. That is always useful feedback.
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