The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited (TRIG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to TRIG's 2026 interim results. This morning's session will consist of a presentation by the usual TRIG management team, followed by a Q&A session with questions taken both in the room and online. And with that, I'll hand over to Minesh.

Good morning, and thank you to everyone joining us both in the room and online. Welcome to TRIG's 2026 interim results. This has been a more supportive year so far for the renewable sector in Europe with higher wind speeds in the U.K., higher power prices in the U.K. and Sweden, and the market beginning to reopen for asset transactions. These factors have somewhat improved investor sentiment as reflected in the share price, but there is still some way to go with high long-term interest rates still weighing on the share price recovery. We reported a NAV of GBP 1.011 per share, which principally reflects the mechanical flow through of medium-term reduction in revenue forecasts. Now we continue to take a conservative approach to power price forecasting, taking the average of 3 forecasters. The forecasters expect LNG capacity to increase significantly. This is despite higher near-term prices and an overall tighter energy system with the flow of fossil fuels out of the Middle East being restricted. We remain confident in the long-term support for renewables as part of the growing energy demand. In the U.K., we welcome the new government's reemphasis on whole economy electrification, which should accelerate growth in electricity demand, and will provide further support to power prices in the future. And the wholesale CFD contract for difference could provide an additional route to fixed price revenues for operational projects. The EU also continues to see renewables as an important part of delivering their energy security and electrification strategy, whilst the significant development of data centers remains an important growth driver of electricity demand across Europe. I'm pleased to report that the underlying business remains resilient, reflected in operational cash generation of GBP 209 million and the gross cash cover of the dividend of 2.3x as well as net cover of 1.1x following GBP 111 million of project level debt repaid in the period and long-term gearing coming down to 39% following the Beatrice disposal once it's been completed. The amortizing fixed rate nature of debt on the balance sheet is a result of deliberate structuring. It means we have low interest rate risk and low refinancing risk. And mirroring the approach to the balance sheet, we seek to revenue price fix as well. We also seek to maintain good inflation correlation. And this all provides resilience to our cash flow forecast, which has given the Board the confidence to reaffirm the dividend at GBP 0.0755 per share, representing a nearly 10% cash yield. We presented our projections to support this alongside our strategy at the Capital Market seminar in May. Here, we show how we have implemented the Board's capital allocation priorities. You can see that our approach has been flexible. In response to the share price, we have continued to place a greater emphasis on shareholder returns, including buybacks where they reflected the best use of capital, with over 60% of available capital allocated to shareholder returns in the first half of 2026. Now this is expected to moderate in the second half of the year as proceeds from disposals are received and applied to reducing borrowings under the revolving credit facility, which would have been GBP 120 million net of the Beatrice sale and with further disposals underway. Construction spend was GBP 49 million, principally into new projects, and we continue to see attractive construction projects with IRRs in the teens. The 3 strategic objectives that we set out at the Capital Markets Seminar in May were disciplined capital allocation, active revenue management, and portfolio optimization. And we've made good progress against each of these already. We set a target to realize GBP 400 million of capital over the 12 months to May 2027. And we've made an excellent start against this objective with the disposal of the Beatrice offshore wind farm signed for GBP 155 million. Further sale processes are in train. If you take that together with a GBP 200 million private placement debt issued at the start of the year, that's GBP 600 million to be realized over 18-month period. The second objective was net dividend cover of at least 1.1x. This was achieved in the first half of the year, and we expect to deliver this for the full year. As a reminder, this is after the repayment of project level debt, which we repaid GBP 111 million off in the first half of the year and around GBP 175 million annual repayments business as usual. Gross cash cover was 2.3x for the half year. And the third objective that we set out was to start the construction of at least 100 megawatts of generation or storage capacity a year. We currently have 200 megawatts in construction with 100 megawatts across Ryton greenfield battery and the Cuxac repowering due to come online later this year and start adding to cash flows from 2027. In our pipeline, we also have over 150 megawatts available for final investment decisions in the second half of this year between further repowerings in France, co-located batteries in Spain, and greenfield batteries in the U.K. And finally, before I hand over to Phil, whilst we have focused on the financial fundamentals, the resilience of TRIG is built on its diversified asset portfolio, diversified by markets, diversified by geographies, diversified by technologies. Our portfolio spans 6 power markets and 4 technologies that support both energy security and the decarbonization of European and U.K. economies. We have a 56-44 split between the U.K. and the rest of Europe. And our medium-term objective remains to increase technology diversification. With the Beatrice disposal, wind in our portfolio will come down to 78%, solar increases to 14% and batteries to 8%. To further this, we continue to progress sales of wind projects and have a very strong pipeline of battery projects that we can build. Phil, TRIG's CFO, will now take us through the financials.

Thank you, Minesh. I'll now take you through the financial highlights and the valuation movements H1 '26. The valuation of the investments and, therefore, the net asset value have declined in the half year, driven by a slightly lower third-party power price forecast over the medium term, and lower projected renewable electricity certificates income. There's been a modest offset in the valuation from higher near-term power price forwards and the manager's active management enhancement program. NAV at the 30th of June 2026 was GBP 1.011 per share with a portfolio value of GBP 2.8 billion. Being an investment company, the valuation movement reduces earnings, which in the period of plus GBP 0.1, which means after dividend was paid in the period of GBP 0.038 and with the benefit of share buybacks that NAV has reduced by GBP 0.029 per share in the period. Dividend cover, before project level debt repayments in the period of GBP 111 million, was 2.3x and dividend cover after those repayments 1.1x. Dividend cover has improved to more normal levels. We're very close to budget generation and revenues in the period. We expect to maintain this level of dividend cover going forward with improvement over the medium term as higher returning battery and repowering projects come into operations. The target dividend for 2026 of GBP 0.0755 is reaffirmed by the Board and represents a 10% dividend yield. Stepping through the valuation bridge shows a trail from the opening valuation of GBP 2,875 million to a closing valuation of GBP 2,817 million. And starting from the left, investments of GBP 49 million have been made in the period, mostly funding the repowering of the Cuxac wind farm in France, and the construction of the Ryton and Spennymoor battery projects in the U.K. And cash flows up from the investments in the year were GBP 116 million. So the rebased valuation is GBP 2,807 million. And the following items on the rest of the valuation bridge affect NAV and represent the operating income shown in the profit and loss account. I'll be going into more detail on most of these items on the following slides, but briefly. On the bridge, we show the impact of the movement in FX on our euro-denominated assets. Sterling has strengthened just over 1% against the euro, resulting in a loss before hedge offset of GBP 14 million, as shown on the bridge. The company hedges FX outside of the portfolio and the gains on these hedges more than offset this impact, resulting in a net FX gain for the company for the period of GBP 2 million. Power price forecasts are overall net slightly down. While forecast prices have increased for this year and next, reflecting the Middle East conflict, they are lower from around year 3 for around 5 years, reflecting an expectation of greater U.S. gas exports, pushing down EU and U.K. gas import prices and hence, power prices. U.K. power price forecast also incorporate the early removal of the carbon price support tax announced in April that has the impact of reducing forecast power prices in the U.K. The adverse impact of this on TRIG was low at GBP 0.03. We have not changed valuation discount rates in the period. We have increased forecast U.K. inflation assumed for the balance of this year by around 1% that has increased NAV slightly. And the final item on the bridge portfolio return for the period is GBP 55 million and represents an annualized 4% increase, which is lower than would be expected predominantly due to this item, including lower forecasted revenues from the sale of green certificates. This slide provides more detail on the power price forecasts. As a reminder, TRIG takes a conservative approach to power price forecasting. We received forecast curves from 3 mainstream providers. They reduce their baseload curves to adjust for the lower price captured by renewables generators known as cannibalization, and then we take the average of the 3 curves adjusted for cannibalization. And this approach means that we capture the range of views in the market in relation to the evolution of the supply and demand of electricity and forecast commodity prices, which drive forecast power prices. The chart shows the range of forecast applicable to GB onshore wind, which is the market with a slightly wider spread of forecast than the overall TRIG portfolio average. GB offshore wind has a similar curve. GB wind is also our region with our largest merchant exposure. The spread of forecast is similar at June '26 to that at December '25 and narrower than that at June '25. The impact on returns of adopting the highest or the lowest curve compared to the average will be around plus or minus 1% for the portfolio as a whole and around 1.5% for GB onshore wind, i.e., for GB onshore wind farm, if we assume the higher curve, we might see returns 1.5% higher than assuming the average of the curves. Overall, power price forecasts have risen until 2028 and then lower around the next 5 years, mostly driven by an assumption of increased LNG flows from the U.S., reducing global LNG prices and hence reducing power prices, particularly in markets where prices are generally set by gas-powered generation such as the U.K. There've also been an assumption of greater renewables buildout in Germany and Spain, reducing forecast there also. So the markets with the largest impact from reducing power curves have been GB and Spain. And since the end of June, power prices and near-term power price forecasts have increased significantly as a result of the ongoing Middle East situation. The impact of higher near-term prices on TRIG has moderated as a result of a high proportion of income that is fixed per megawatt hour, and that for the moment, it's only the next 9 months of forwards that are elevated. We'd expect that if the valuation is restructured today for reference to today's forecast levels versus those at the 30 of June, the NAV could be up to GBP 0.01 higher. And on the top right of the slide, we continue to provide data on our average assumed wholesale power prices. In the appendix of this presentation, you'll find a year-by-year assumed capture power price by region that we use in the valuation. And in the bottom right, that's showing the proportion of our forecast revenues that are fixed per megawatt hour and exposed to merchant pricing. The point to note is a high proportion which is fixed, 78% for the next 12 months, and 64% over the next 10 years, providing good downside protection against variation in power prices and good inflation linkage. This slide covers valuation discount rates. We substantially increased discount rates across the portfolio in both 2024 and 2025. We did consider whether to apply a further discount rate increase to U.K. assets at this valuation point to recognize the increase in U.K. government bond yields during this year-to-date. But for now, we're holding discount rate level, reflecting external valuation benchmarks and also the sales processes we have in progress and values third-party bidders have indicated. We also considered our sale of Beatrice at a small discount to our valuation and concluded that there were asset-specific factors relevant to the Beatrice valuation that didn't read across to the balance of the portfolio. The slide shows the risk-free rates on government -- benchmark government bond yields relative to the portfolio discount rate. The overall portfolio weighted average discount rates increased by 0.1% during the period to 9.1%, which implies a 5% risk premium of the U.K.-EU blended risk-free rate. Post period end, we've seen the U.K. government bond yields drift a little higher, as you can see in the table. If U.K. government bond yields remain elevated, this could become reflected in the market pricing for assets. A 25 basis point increase in U.K. discount rates would reduce the NAV per share by around GBP 0.8. This impact could well come together with higher near-term power prices and also higher near-term inflation. And so these factors will be expected to be offset. This slide includes the inflation assumptions and other portfolio return items. We've increased our forecast for full year inflation for 2026, increasing inflation assumptions by around 1% for the U.K. and 0.4% for Europe for this year. Our forecast inflation assumptions beyond this year remain unchanged. And also on this slide, we cover the items included in the balance of portfolio return. Grid outages at some U.K. wind farms offset otherwise good generation and had a small adverse impact on NAV. Overall generation revenues were very close to budget and higher power prices were secured than budgeted. Beatrice is being sold at a small discount to NAV. We have updated REGOS and guarantee of origin forecasts that have declined, reflecting reduced demand for these green certificates, both in the U.K. and in Europe. Energy yield enhancements and revenue fixing in the period have added to NAV. We expect good uplifts to arise in future periods as we move development projects to FID and as we move construction projects into operations. And buying back the company's own shares at a significant discount to NAV has added GBP 0.7 per share over the period. This slide bridges the NAV per share during the period and analyzes the movements between macro items, actuals and the cost of running the company and active management in the period with NAV gains delivered from energy yield enhancements, revenue management, and share buybacks. This slide shows our continued focus on reducing the short-term RCF debt balance. During the period, we invested GBP 49 million in construction projects and GBP 38 million on share buybacks. Dividend cover in excess of 1.0x was applied to reduce the RCF as was the GBP 200 million private placement raised in February. The RCF balance at the end of June was GBP 276 million, which is a net reduction in the 6 months of GBP 122 million. The Beatrice sales proceeds are expected during H2 that would reduce the RCF to GBP 121 million. In H2, we expect further investment in higher returning construction projects and share buybacks as well as reinvestment of surplus cash flows and disposal proceeds from the more advanced disposal processes we are working on that should overall bring the RCF by year-end down towards GBP 100 million with further disposals and RCF reduction planned for early 2027. This slide shows TRIG's debt position with gearing reducing over time with scheduled repayments on the long-term debt over the subsidy and fixed income term. TRIG has long-term fixed rate nonrecourse project level debt that is shown in the chart in light blue. And earlier this year, we put in place a fund-level private placement with an average 10-year life that is shown in green. The scheduled repayments of this debt are from 2023 to 2038. The private placement was used to reduce the RCF balance. The private placement was provided by a group of high-quality institutional lenders with strong demand. We were pleased with the pricing level achieved. The repayment profile of the private placement is within the subsidy and other fixed revenues term and slightly extends the long-term debt profile, which benefits the fund's overall cost of capital. So TRIG has a conservative capital structure where the vast majority of our debt is long-term fixed rate and amortizing during fixed revenue periods. Long-term debt is repaying at the rate of around GBP 175 million a year. The project level gearing level once Beatrice is sold at 34% and long-term gearing as a percent of EV, i.e., project level debt and private placement, is 39%. So this is a comfortable level with room to issue further long-term debt should it be desirable. And total debt as a percent of EV, including the RCF balance post Beatrice disposal, is 42%. And this should continue to decline further as we execute further disposals and reduce the RCF. My final slide provides the TRIG debt components I've described on the previous slide and show the total debt ratio coming down considerably as a result of the Beatrice disposal, further disposals and debt reduction in train. That brings me to the end of the financial items. I shall now hand over to Chris, who will cover our operational performance.

Hello. In the first half of the year, TRIG generated 2.9 terawatt hours of electricity. That's enough to power the equivalent of 1.6 million homes. That's more than all the homes in Wales and avoided 0.9 million tonnes of CO2. As you know, TRIG's portfolio of over 80 projects is spread across the weather systems and markets of Western Europe in onshore wind, offshore wind, solar and batteries with a wide range of manufacturers and models, providing diversification of multiple different risks. Generation was 3% below budget in the period, which you can see in the column on the right-hand side. Overall, the below-budget generation was mitigated by above-budget electricity prices, particularly in the U.K. and Sweden to deliver revenues consistent with the financial budget. Safety remains a top priority. We now report the total recordable incident rate. This is in addition to the lost time accident frequency rates. So what this does is improves visibility of less severe but more frequent incidents. The TRIR for the period was 0.7. That's in line with industry benchmarks. There've also been some really good ESG activities during the period. So do please take a look at the sustainability report available on the website. TRIG's market-leading diversification is best evidenced by looking at the long-term [indiscernible] resource across the regions. The chart shows how the weighted average wind and solar resource varies over time, for TRIG sites in each region compared to the 30-year long-term mean. Ultimately, the purpose of the diversification is to smooth out the peaks and the troughs in any one region or market. You can see this in the weighted average dash line with lower variability than for each region. For the first half of 2026, U.K. wind resource has been good compared to last year when it was down. And conversely, wind resource in Sweden was less good this year compared to strong wind levels last year. The portfolio diversification provides greater stability year-to-year. We're constantly reviewing high-returning investment opportunities within the current portfolio as part of our focus on long-term value creation. Our exciting pipeline of development projects provides a significant source of potential long-term value creation. These opportunities include repowering, colocation, and greenfield development, all of which leverage RES' and InfraRed's complementary capabilities. Here, we can see how the homegrown development pipeline has been built up. Our first batch of repowerings are progressing well. Cuxac is on time and on budget, and its capacity will be doubled once it's complete. Of course, new repowering opportunities will continue to arise as the portfolio ages. Colocations are where we consider installing a new technology such as batteries on an existing operational site. These are typically more attractive when there's a wider strategic benefit also identified, such as providing additional electricity price stability to our Spanish solar projects. Our greenfield development projects are at new locations that enable us to deploy new stand-alone battery storage projects, adding further diversification to the portfolio and a wider GB electricity price hedge. It's been a busy period, and I'd like to highlight some of the progress made on the development and construction projects as well as the value enhancements to existing sites. Construction of both the 78-megawatt Ryton battery and the 25-megawatt Cuxac repowering are well progressed and on track for energization by the end of the year. We visited Cuxac recently. It's great to see the transformation. So moving from seeing the old turbines on the ground being recycled through to some pristine foundations, towers being bolted on, nacelles on the ground ready to be put up, and we had the first blade delivered site yesterday. Construction has now started on the 99-megawatt 2-hour Spennymoor battery just south of Newcastle. Civil works for battery inverter platforms are being completed, ready for the battery to be delivered in spring next year. One of the enhancements within the portfolio can be seen in this photo where LiDAR system has been attached to the top of the turbine at Hill of Towie in Scotland. So what this does is it fires a laser forward into the oncoming wind, so you can really understand the wind characteristics of the wind before it reaches the turbine. So what this helps do is it allows us to coordinate the turbines, so they maximize the generation from the wind farm as a whole by reducing the wake impact of one turbine upon another. Hill of Towie's rollout is now complete, delivering energy yield uplift of 0.7%. That's in addition to the 5% that was achieved previously from new blade hardware and improved control parameters. On that note, I'll hand over to Minesh.

Thank you, Chris. Bringing this presentation together, our business model has been deliberately designed to ensure resilient income for our shareholders through a diversified portfolio, a high proportion of fixed price revenues and an amortizing debt structure. We are making excellent progress towards our GBP 400 million capital realization target, GBP 155 million disposal signed, further disposals in train. H1 2026 dividend was covered 1.1x on a net basis back to more normalized levels and in line with our target and the strongest gross dividend cover in the peer group of 2.3x. And finally, in addition to the significant share buybacks in the year to date, we have significantly progressed our development pipeline. Chris just mentioned the Ryton and Cuxac projects are scheduled to come online this year, adding 100 megawatts of capacity and will add to cash flows from 2027 and a potential further 150 megawatts plus of further investment decisions to be made in H2. We're excited that these projects are coming online and will add to the diversification of the portfolio. And today, we've demonstrated that whilst H2 is expected to be a very busy period for progressing the strategy, we are already delivering against the objectives that we set out at the Capital Markets Seminar. Phil has demonstrated why we have confidence in the long-term resilience of the balance sheet and the dividend. And Chris has shown our strong emphasis on operational excellence. We continue to optimize the portfolio, reduce gearing and deliver an attractive dividend to shareholders. Thank you for your time. We'll now take questions.

We'll start with questions in the room. There's a roving mic around.

It's Iain Scouller, Canaccord. Just got a question on debt. You're saying you're considering issuing more private notes potentially. What would the upper limit be in terms of the total size of notes been issued pounds [indiscernible]? And also the interest rate at the moment is 5.23%. Given today's market, should we assume that it would probably be a higher interest rate if you were to issue today?

Yes. So when we look at the balance sheet, and Phil showed the projections, sitting here today, you could probably issue a further GBP 75 million to GBP 100 million. That amount increases over time as the existing debt amortizes. The credit spread achieved on the notes we issued was about 150 basis points over long-term rates. And so you can add that to where rates are at the moment. Remembering that it was a sterling and euro tranche, half sterling, half euro to get to the blended rate. So yes, today, it would probably be a bit more expensive than where we struck it earlier this year. We talked about the fact that the GBP 400 million capital raising objective was to be principally met from disposals just with a modest piece of debt issuance. Hopefully, those numbers put that into context. The plan is not to issue the debt immediately. It's important, I think, that we let our disposal processes continue, and then we'll think about whether to put new debt in around the turn of the year.

Hi, it's Ashley Thomas from Winterflood. Just 2 questions. Minesh, you spoke earlier about the better M&A sort of market conditions. I just wondered whether there was any sort of geographical bias or differentiation in that. And it was also noted that Beatrice had sort of specific issues coming at a slight discount to the NAV. And again, I wondered whether that was sort of locational or sort of preemption rights-related, just some background on that. And the second question was just on repowering opportunities potentially going into AR9. Just in terms of the scale and likely candidates, I didn't know whether sort of Crystal Rig 2, sort of, potentially would fit into that. And if it did, whether there would be any potential read-across from the Crystal Rig 1 repowering application?

Yes. Thanks very much. So on the M&A market, it's fair to say it is better this year than last year. But I think as we've set out in our report, it does still remain challenging. In relation to geographies, I think there's broad interest across the U.K. and Europe. In both regions, governments have reemphasized the importance of renewables as part of the long-term plan to transition their economies. And I think investors are being reminded, particularly with elevated power prices of kind of the attraction of renewables in their portfolios. And with regards to Beatrice, I mean, we've often talked about our disposal scorecard and the reason we might sell assets. We've now sold 8 projects, including Beatrice, over the last 3 years. Seven of them have been for portfolio risk management reasons, only one of them has been because of a very attractive price that was on the table. Beatrice is another example of a project sold for portfolio risk management reasons. And Ashley, you alluded to them precisely around kind of that particular location of the North Coast of Scotland. The U.K. government has indicated over the long term, it wants generation to be closer to demand. And we are continuing to move the weight of our portfolio in the U.K. towards England and Wales. In fact, the majority of our U.K. portfolio is already in England and Wales. In relation to repowering, Chris, do you want to take that?

[Indiscernible] one comes first. We'll look at the others at the right time. And Chris will speak to some -- Wales and -- but yes, we continue to look at them. It depends on the specific performance, conditions, opportunities at the time for each project.

It's Andrew Rees, DB. Just a couple. On price fixes, obviously, as you mentioned, the near-term forward environment has sort of spiked up again post period end. I'm wondering, I think you've just over 0.5 terawatt hour sort of fixed during the period. Have you engaged in sort of any more fixes post period end? And then secondly, slightly more theoretical, I noticed a comment around the U.K. government's long-duration energy storage scheme, and sort of the potential impact that could have on sort of actually reducing sort of cannibalization for renewable assets in the U.K. I'm wondering, sort of, if the forecasters that you use and have conversations with, sort of, given any, sort of, steer on quantum, obviously, it remains to be seen how much long-duration storage actually gets built out of what the government have procured, and, sort of, actually further sort of allocation rounds under that scheme coming forward?

Yes. I think forecasters like us are all digesting the long-duration storage that was very much at the top end of the range that was guided that they were looking to procure. So the team will be engaging with forecasters over the coming months to see how that flows. I think the theory is that more long-duration storage, particularly when we've seen that portfolio that offshore has indicated the minded-to decision is weighted towards Scotland should help with cannibalization. I think the duration of that was much longer as well than perhaps we were expecting. We were expecting it all to be around the 8-hour mark. And I think the average is close to 11 or 13 hours. So that should be supportive. But at the end of the day, also worth remembering it's 7, 8 gigawatts in the context of Scottish generation, which is much, much larger. So it should help, but it's not going to be easy -- it's not going to be a complete fix for cannibalization in Scotland. And the first question...

That was more fixes.

More fixes. Yes. So the number we've included in the report particularly relates to kind of February, March, and the fixes we put on for '26, '27 and '28. In addition, we've kind of put a new 7-year contract on for the Gode offshore wind farm. That was a really great achievement that the team delivered, provides a few years of fixed, and then an increase to the floor price for that project, which also means that now it's got more debt capacity as well to drive returns for that investment. I think it's fair to say it's not clear how the prices in the Middle East is going to evolve. We're seeing that reflected in gilts and risk-free rates moving around a lot. We're also seeing it in forwards move around quite a lot. Just in the space of a week, they have moved quite considerably. I think in that context, it's important to fix periodically and spread the vintage of your fixes because we're not going to be able to take any better view than anyone else as to how a war is going to pan out. And in that context, we'll just continue to place some fixes week-on-week.

Having said that we don't take a view, we do have a suspicion that the market is not sufficiently pricing in the risk of a tight winter. So we don't want to be kind of -- if we fix and we're looking at fixing, we don't want to fix too cheaply because the gas stocks in Europe are particularly low. And if there's a cold winter and if this trouble carries on, then we might see very high prices in the winter. So fixing at a good price.

Nigel Hawkins, Hardman. Can I ask 2 questions if I may? First, with regard to a recent government report that suggested there was a material overestimation of the possible output from new wind and solar projects, and I think it was published about 3 or 4 months ago, I wonder if you've got any comments on that particular report. And to what extent your projections are based on your so-called 3 wise companies rather than yourselves as to what particular project will produce X amount of power 5 years down the line, for example? And secondly, given we've got a few months to think about it, Spain. Now I was actually in Spain April 2025 in the supermarket when the lights went out. We've had since then, various experts in Spain arguing amongst themselves, regulators said nothing to do with us, the lights went out. The government said nothing to do with us that the lights went out. A number of the companies involved also disclaim responsibility. You, I think, have one or 2 solar plants nearby, [indiscernible] et cetera. I wondered after all these months of debate, et cetera, whether you've got any conclusions as to exactly what went wrong? Inertia problems has been cited as one particular issue.

Chris, do you want to take our approach to generation estimation?

Yes, absolutely. We've got a mature portfolio, with average age 5 to 6 years, I'd say some projects clearly older than that. That's the best indication of future is making use of historic performance within your forecast going forward. So we have 2 different types of energy. We've got pre-construction, post-construction, post-construction, which the overwhelming majority of the portfolio is on is more accurate. They're the most accurate form and they incorporate historic understanding of performance. So high confidence levels on those. And you see that in the results we've given. That's further aided by the portfolio diversification, both by technology, so solar and wind, but also by geography. Also by being spread around into as many projects that we've got, over 80 projects, again, that helps spread that risk of any 1 or 2 particular projects underperforming. So yes, we're quite happy with where we are. We look at it every quarter, of course, we do, and we perform analysis to make sure we understand what overall underperformance has been driven by. And then we flow that into our wider considerations when we come to new budget years if there's any requirement for a change or not.

We're happy with our generation forecast. Our power price forecast is getting the right generation forecast for the fleet as a whole. We do know they look at this quite regularly. And now and again, they do revise them. And only last year, AFRY did a revision where they reduced the amount of renewable generation they're expecting to come from the fleet of generation in Europe. So you're right to say that now and again, the forecasters do look at it and say, actual generation has been less than we expected or greater than we expected. In that case, it's less than they expected. And that then reduced their expectation of renewable generation, which led to their forecast increasing. So we can see that dynamic happening.