Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 6, 2026

HLSE FI Consumer Discretionary Broadline Retail Earnings Calls 72 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#1

Good morning, and a warm welcome to Tokmanni Group's Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Presentation. My name is Mika Rautiainen. And today, together with me is Tokmanni Group's CFO, Mr. Tapio Arimo. I will first go through the main points of the fourth quarter. Tapio will come and explain a little bit more specifically the financial figures. I will come back with the 2026 guidance and proposal for dividend. After that, it's time for questions. So let's get started. Yes. First of all, Tokmanni segment was performing well regarding the profit. And on the other hand, Dollarstore segment has a lot of room for improvement, but the actions are ongoing. Let's take a look a little bit closer on this. Familiar picture, I would like to point out a couple of things from here. First of all, the revenue of Dollarstore segment is growing in the group, and it was -- during the last quarter, it was already 28% compared with previous year's 26%. The sale of groceries for the whole group was 53.5%, and it was growing actually, and it's something to do with the economic situation in both countries, but especially in Finland. The sale of private labels was 27.5%. It's a very nice increase over there, mainly coming from Sweden and Denmark. Previous year, the figure for private labels was 26.8%. At the moment, we're having in the whole group, 5,900 shared products. During the Christmas season, it was already more than 6,000 due to the Christmas seasonal products. But at the moment, it's more than 5,900 shared products. And this is, of course, something we're very happy with. And then about the store network, yes, we're developing the store network, all the time, mainly in Sweden and Denmark. So 12 new stores compared with previous year. These Dollarstore segment new stores, especially in the end of the year, they include new pilot stores for the joint assortment together with Tokmanni. But I will be coming back to that part a little bit later. And then about the fourth quarter figures regarding the group. First of all, Tokmanni Group's revenue increased by 2.8%. Tokmanni segment's revenue declined due to lower basket size, which is basically the end result from the very weak consumer trust basically on the economic situation. Dollarstore segment revenue grew and the average basket size increased, but the comparable customer visits declined. The gross margin percent improvement was driven by Tokmanni segment during the fourth quarter and also the cost management was very successful in Finland, but expenses at Dollarstore segment increased due to the new store openings and development actions. These 2 new store openings, as I mentioned, they included the new pilot stores where we're basically testing the joint larger assortment in Sweden actually. And obviously, this was -- since we don't have the same database yet. So mainly all of the work was done manually. And of course, it caused us quite a lot of additional expenses. However, we're extremely satisfied with the new store openings. The new pilot stores are almost double with the sales regarding the average Dollarstore stores. And well, the other development actions we're working on the IT and the supply chain very hard at the moment. For example, the master data operations is very crucial for our future success and efficiencies as well as the warehouse management, which we basically renewed almost like totally during 2025. Anyway, the group's EBIT improved, especially due to the good cost control in Finland. The group EBIT actually was the all-time high for the fourth quarter for Tokmanni Group when you look at the absolute euros. Then a couple of words about Tokmanni segment. The revenue declined, as already mentioned, due to the customers' lower basket size. We could clearly see that there were like very careful customers during the fourth quarter for the Christmas season. Unfortunately, the economic situation in Finland was on a very, let's say, low level and also the belief in the personal economy was on a very low level, very high unemployment rate and things like this, they affect customers' behavior quite a lot. The comparable gross profit improved by EUR 1.5 million, compared with the previous year. The operating expenses decreased due to very successful cost control. We were very satisfied with cost control in Finland in general. So the EBIT -- comparable EBIT improved by EUR 3.9 million to EUR 40.9 million during the fourth quarter. The first -- in Finland, the first 3 Tokmanni Eurospar stores are performing very well. These were the first one was opened last June. And then in October and November, the openings, obviously, they were very successful and double-digit sales increase in all the 3 stores. I'm especially very happy about the fact that, for example, during this year, the double-digit development for both food and the whole stores, it's continued. So this is obviously a way for growth also for Tokmanni segment. And actually, the next Eurospar opening will be happening in Järvenpää in the southern part of Finland in March, so in a couple of weeks' time. And then, of course, we will move on with other food stores in Tokmanni chain, and we will convert basically all of the food selling stores to SPAR stores. But we'll come back to that then later on. But I have to say that -- we -- basically, we've been learning and studying the SPAR way of doing the food business with these first 3 stores. We're very happy of the learnings and now we're basically ready to move on faster. And then Dollarstore segment. Revenue grew by 12.2% in euros. It reached EUR 148.5 million, supported by the new store openings and the stronger Swedish krona against euro. In local currencies, the revenue increased by 6.8%. And as you can see, the difference with foreign exchange is quite dramatic. So the Swedish krona is definitely stronger. Tapio might touch this slightly when it comes to the financial figures later on. The total number of customers increased by 2.2%, but the comparable customers visit decreased. Basket size grew by 3.4%. Grocery sales increased by 7.8%. So also like in Dollarstore, the development in groceries were higher compared with previous year. And the comparable gross profit improved by EUR 5.4 million, but the operating expenses coming from the store openings and the development project, whether it was like the pilot stores, the master data or the warehouse management, they caused additional expenses, and that's why the comparable EBIT was clearly lower compared with previous year, EUR 8.3 million. A couple of words about Dollarstore. First of all, we consider this as a turnaround company. At the time of the acquisition, summer 2023, Dollarstore had the lowest price level in Sweden and was absolutely the place to buy entry-level products. And the aim of the company was to offer the cheapest alternatives in all products. This, of course, is for a discounter, it's a fantastic strategy. But if you don't have the highest volumes, it's -- you end up in a situation where there needs to be some compromises with the product quality. For Tokmanni Group, these kind of issues are basically a no-go situation. So we needed to start to change to more sustainable products because for the whole group, we basically couldn't continue with very poor quality, not sustainable products. Of course, it shows with -- for our customers like the change is actually quite dramatic in some areas. But today, Dollarstore is offering still the best-in-class in terms of price. So we're very compatible -- competitive with the prices as the local newspaper, Aftonbladet also approved in January with the price comparison. But now we can rely and especially the customers can rely on the quality of the products. At the moment, as already mentioned, Dollarstore is offering more than 5,900 common SKUs with Tokmanni. This is basically definitely the direction we're going. We're already seeing with the pilot stores that similar type of assortment works actually very well. However, we definitely do need to take into consideration the Swedish consumption habits. So there will be like the local assortment in Sweden and the local assortment in Denmark as well. And as we know, there is a local assortment in Finland. In this case, for example, SPAR products. By the way, there are at the moment in Finland in all Tokmanni stores, there are almost like 200 SPAR SKUs for sale at the moment. So yes, there will be like a joint assortment with the local assortments. Now what I'm very happy is the next bullet point. During the last weeks, we've been working for the first time with the joint commercial planning and implementation for both Tokmanni and Dollarstore. And obviously, this is basically the first time we're really able to basically use the strength from the volumes that we have altogether. And in Dollarstore, we'll also concentrate on improving the Dollarstore's operational efficiency with joint IT systems and streamlined supply chain operations. We have started already last year. It will take time, but we're already seeing like very good development in these areas. But these are some fundamental base building for the future success for Dollarstore and the whole group. The next one, a couple of comments regarding the strategy period, which ended by the end of 2025. So when we look at the strategic targets for the strategy period '21, '25 and how we succeeded with that. As you can see, the revenue, which was actually lifted during the acquisition of Dollarstore, we're quite close with the revenue target. Obviously, the next one, the comparable EBIT is something where we're extremely disappointed. It's only on the level of a little bit less than EUR 85 million, where the target was EUR 150 million. Now in when we were basically building this or setting the strategic targets for the strategy period, it was end 2020, beginning of 2021. Obviously, the world was very different at that time. We were in the middle of pandemic. Obviously, when the pandemic time was actually very, very good for the retailers. After that, a huge inflation increase. the war in Ukraine, a lot of things have happened. But still, it's -- we should have performed much better with the EBIT level. And now, of course, all the actions are for this year. And I could imagine that also for the next category -- for the next strategy period, it will be on profitability. With the store network, the target was 360 stores in Nordics. Now we're in 356. So actually, that's quite okay. With the net debt divided by comparable EBITDA, the target was less than 2.25. So we're slightly over that with 2.71. Dividend, the target was about 70% of net result for the financial year. For '21, '22, '23, I think we were doing very well with this. But for '24, '25, it's clearly less than the 70% due to the target of strengthening the group's balance sheet. So this is basically the setup with the strategic period. Obviously, one of the key issues regarding this strategic period that we just ended was that we will also enter the Nordic countries, and that, of course, has happened. Now our job is to focus on the profitability on the whole group level and to move on from here. So that's about the strategy period, which ended. And the next one is the financial figures. Tapio, please, could you come and explain them a little bit more specifically? Thank you.

Tapio Arimo

Executives
#2

Thank you, Mika. So good morning, everybody, on my behalf as well. So let's jump a little bit deeper into the figures. First, just the headline numbers for the fourth quarter. So our total group revenue grew by 2.8%, reaching EUR 510 million. And as Mika mentioned, that is our all-time high naturally. Our like-for-like revenue decreased slightly, about 1.7% for the fourth quarter, and our comparable gross margin increased to EUR 183.8 million and also the comparable gross margin percent increased slightly to 36.0% for the fourth quarter. And our comparable EBIT totaled EUR 48.2 million. And that again is an all-time high for the group for any quarter in the history of the company, so not a bad result as such. And the EBIT margin was 9.4%, a slight decline from last year. Also, our cash flow during the fourth quarter was very strong. Operating cash flow totaled EUR 108.6 million, an increase of over EUR 30 million from a year ago. And our earnings per share for the fourth quarter was EUR 0.52 per share. Then going a bit deeper into the revenues, both for the quarter and for the year. So as I said, for the quarter, we had EUR 510.8 million, a growth of about 2.8% and the growth really coming from Dollarstore segment, and that growth was helped partially by the foreign exchange rate, obviously. Our like-for-like revenue again decreased by 1.7%. And then if you look at the total year, so Tokmanni segment grew by EUR 10 million, roughly the revenues for the full year, while Dollarstore grew around EUR 45 million for the whole year. And again, there, partly due to the more favorable exchange rate. In percentage terms, the Dollarstore revenue increased by 12.2% and by 6.8% on comparable currencies. Then looking at our revenue split. So Tokmanni in Q4 was, you could say, perfect balance, so 50-50 grocery and non-groceries, while Dollarstore, the percentage of non-groceries grew slightly from a year ago and reached 52.2 percentage points. Then looking at our private labels. So here again, we saw a very good development during the fourth quarter. So our private labels share of total sales reached over 30%, so 30.7% during the fourth quarter, an increase of 3.1 percentage points. And this, again, was driven mainly by Dollarstore, where we continue to increase the common offering and introduce Tokmanni private labels into the Dollarstore offering. Then when you look at our comparable gross profit, again, on a Q4 basis, the gross profit grew to EUR 183.8 million and the gross margin to 36.0 percentage points, a slight increase from a year ago. And then when you look at the full year, our gross margin increased, but the gross margin percent declined slightly from 35.6% to 35.1%. And of course, the Dollarstore growth in the gross profit was quite good in the fourth quarter, so reaching EUR 56.9 million, so growth of EUR 5.4 million and the gross margin percent at Dollarstore during the fourth quarter declined slightly to 38.3 percentage points. Then when you look at our operating expenses, the picture is a bit different. So the operating expenses were 20.2% of revenue in the fourth quarter, a very slight increase of 0.1% from the previous year. And this was driven by the Dollarstore segment. Our personnel expenses, which are a major part, of course, of the operating expenses also grew slightly to 12% of revenue from a year ago of 11.8% of revenue. On the Tokmanni segment side, we're very happy with the results. We managed to decrease the absolute operating expenses during the fourth quarter and of course, also then the relative percent of sales, declined also. So Tokmanni segment, the comparable operating expenses were EUR 68.4 million during the fourth quarter, a decline of EUR 1.8 million. Dollarstore segment, on the other hand, the operating expenses grew quite a bit and also the percent of sales grew quite a bit. And obviously, we continue to work very hard with Dollarstore to ensure the future growth and profitability of the business. And for the Dollarstore segment, the operating expenses in euro terms were EUR 35.4 million in the fourth quarter, compared to EUR 29.5 million a year ago. Then when you look at our comparable EBIT -- and again, the fourth quarter EBIT reached EUR 48.2 million, which is the all-time high result for the group, which is, of course, we're happy with that. The group functions expenses increased also slightly to [ EUR 1 million ]. And then when you look at the full year, the picture is not so great, unfortunately. So our comparable EBIT declined during the whole year to EUR 84.8 million, and the EBIT margin was 4.9% decline from 6% a year ago. And again, the decline was mainly driven by the Dollarstore segment, but also Tokmanni segment declined slightly and really the decline in the Tokmanni segment was during the first half of last year. Then our inventories. So we've been working quite hard with the inventory during the past 6 to 9 months, and I'm very happy with the results. So we actually managed to decrease the inventory slightly from a year ago, about EUR 4 million in absolute terms. But you have to remember here that we have 12 more stores at the end of last year compared to a year ago. So if you take that into account, the result is actually very good. And in the Tokmanni segment, the inventories declined by almost EUR 6 million. And in the Dollarstore segment, the inventories increased by a little bit more than EUR 2 million. And again, you remember that most of the 12 new stores were in the Dollarstore segment. So 10 new stores at Dollarstore segment and only EUR 2 million increase in the inventory from a year ago situation, and you couple that with the fact that we continue to increase our own direct imports, which naturally leads to a sort of an increase in the inventories if everything is constant. So we've been doing extremely well with the inventory management also at Dollarstore last year. Then a little bit about our financial situation. So here, you can see our group debt situation in total. And as you can see, the lease liabilities continue their upward trend. And at the end of last year, our total interest-bearing debt was EUR 955.9 million. That's a growth of over EUR 120 million, and the majority of that is coming from the lease liabilities. If you look at our total debt, excluding the lease liabilities, there's a slight increase from last year. But during the last year, starting from Q1, we managed to decrease the total debt quarter-over-quarter. So it's now 3 quarters of declining debt and the interest-bearing debt at the end of last year, excluding lease liabilities, totaled EUR 315 million. And we also did a little bit of a shuffling of our debt during the fourth quarter last year. So we launched a bond to the investor community, our first bond ever, which was EUR 100 million in nominal value. And part of that money we used to repay down our bank debt and then part of the money is going to working capital purposes. And if you look at our net debt, then I'm very happy that our net debt has actually gone down from last year. So it's down about EUR 10 million. And if you look at our net debt to comparable EBITDA ratios, we had a very strong decline during the fourth quarter as is the case usually. We're still above our long-term target of 2.25 and slightly above last year. But again, that is really driven by this IFRS leasing calculations. So the actual bank net debt is down about EUR 10 million from a year ago, including the cash part. And here again, our operating cash flow. And again, this was a very good quarter for us, this fourth quarter last year. So our operating cash flow was EUR 108.6 million. And again, that was driven mainly by a good management of our inventory. And also, if you look at the full year, we had a quite decent cash flow from the full year from the operating perspective, EUR 139.5 million, which is about EUR 50 million more than we had the previous year, so '24. Then our capital expenditure. And here, we continue to see the sort of normal trend. So our total capital expenditure for last year was about EUR 30 million. And for the fourth quarter, the total capital expenditure was EUR 12.1 million. And out of that, the Tokmanni segment was EUR 8.6 million and the Dollarstore segment, EUR 3.5 million. And as previously, our capital expenditure continues to be related to our network expansion, development and maintenance of our store network and our digital services. And we expect the sort of the cash capital expenditure to remain roughly on the same level in the coming years as well. Then I'll hand the stage back over to Mika to talk about our guidance.

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#3

Thank you, Tapio. Please don't go too far because we're going to soon start with the questions. But yes, first, Tokmanni Group's guidance. We expect Tokmanni Group's revenue to be in the range of EUR 1.78 billion to EUR 1.86 billion. And the comparable EBIT, we expect to be in the range of EUR 85 million to EUR 105 million. And the payment of the dividend, the Board of Directors proposes to the AGM that the maximum dividend of EUR 0.34 per share be paid for 2025. And the BOD proposes that the dividend will be paid in 2 installments. The first one, EUR 0.17 per share would be on the payment date would be the 13th of May 2026. And the BOD proposes that the 2026 AGM authorizes BOD to later decide on the distribution of maximum dividend of EUR 0.17 per share in another installment during fall 2026. So this is the guidance and the proposal for the dividend for Tokmanni Group. As already mentioned, the strategy period ended with -- in the end of for Tokmanni Group. So -- but during 2026, Tokmanni Group will publish the new strategy for the next strategy period. And obviously, the coming CEO will be explaining this by the end of this year. But meanwhile, we -- just a couple of words, we're concentrating on the strategic projects or actions to improve Tokmanni Group profitability this year. And obviously, it starts from the sources of growth, as we call it, the low price program, which is extremely good, and it's already launched for both segments. And the performance seems to be actually very good. And as already mentioned, in Dollarstore, we have a lot of actions ongoing. And obviously, we expect this year to be the turnaround year for Dollarstore. Also, I mentioned SPAR as a source of growth for Tokmanni. And already in a couple of weeks' time, the next SPAR store will be open, and we will speed up the conversion of the current food stores to SPAR during this year. The sources of profitability, obviously, joined buying and sourcing. And then the more we do things together, the more we have the same assortment, the more volume we have with joint buying. So obviously, we're going to continue with that. Cost control seems to work very well in Finland. And also, we are taking the same actions in Sweden and Denmark. The inventory management, as Tapio was explaining just a while ago, is working pretty well. We will continue with that and especially in Sweden with the new warehouse management system, the supply chain are doing -- is doing very, very good. The sources of success, as we talk about, as we call it one company, obviously, it's like 3 countries, but it is one company, and we -- all the time, we do actions to make this look like one company, even though it's like 3 countries at the moment. And of course, with the different kind of AI projects, they will affect the work and cost transformation over there and also improve the productivity. These are probably issues that we'll touch a little bit later. One of our key values is that we do things together, and we -- especially with SPAR, we call it nowadays Better Together. So these are the actions to improve Tokmanni Group profitability during this year. Thank you very much. And I think now it's time for questions.

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#4

So let's move on. And if I see correct the first one to set the questions is Arttu Heikura from Inderes.

Arttu Heikura

Analysts
#5

It's Arttu Heikura, Inderes. First of all, could you elaborate on your actions regarding the low price program?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#6

Sure. It's actually already going on in Tokmanni, we're talking about like -- we're talking about this [indiscernible] the lowest price in Finland operations, and we have already started that at the beginning of this year with very good results as a discounter. And as you are also very well aware of the economic situation in Finland, especially right now with quite strong winter and high electric bills, it's very, very good for Tokmanni to offer the lowest prices in Finland, and we'll continue with that. In Sweden, actually, the Aftonbladet has been helping us with the billigast low-price program, which is like the cheapest or lowest price in Sweden and in Denmark. And we've started that already also a couple of weeks ago, or actually a month ago, the price comparisons, price comparison done by Aftonbladet was done in January. And basically, in -- from the competitor group Dollarstore was clearly the cheapest retailer. So that's giving us a pretty good setup for the so-called billigast program.

Arttu Heikura

Analysts
#7

Then about the guidance for this year. What is the main driver for the profit growth? Do you believe that Dollarstore is able to improve its results? And if so, how?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#8

Yes, first of all, from the group -- from the whole group point of view, year 2025 wasn't good at all for Tokmanni Group. I think or maybe you also remember that especially the first half of 2025 was very bad for Tokmanni segment. And yes, I don't think that -- or we believe that this year, the first half will be much better compared with previous year. Obviously, especially in Finland for Tokmanni segment, it is quite weather-related, especially with the spring season, but we don't believe that we'll have like -- we will be missing the spring season 2 years in row in Finland. So that's why we believe that Tokmanni will be on a better position than this year. And regarding the Dollarstore, we've been working so hard with Dollarstore. It has been causing some additional costs. And then probably, it will still be on like -- let's say, the work will be in progress, but we are very confident that there will be a turnaround this year.

Arttu Heikura

Analysts
#9

Then about the spring season and maybe on the products and inventory. Have you already gotten crucial part of spring products in your inventory?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#10

Yes. Or they're basically -- they are in the ports or the last one, the containers are on their way. We don't see any problems at the moment with the spring/summer season, containers. Everything is basically set with that. Obviously, Sweden, due to the fact that the spring time in Sweden, especially in the southern part of Sweden and in Denmark, is obviously ahead of Finland, so there the -- basically the seasonal products are already over there. And the last containers coming to Finland. And so yes, we're quite confident that we're able to deliver the spring/summer season as planned.

Arttu Heikura

Analysts
#11

That's good to hear. Then maybe about Dollarstore and its decline in like-for-like customer flows. So have you analyzed deeply that what is causing this negative effect? And I think -- well, maybe you can say in your own words, please?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#12

Thank you. Yes, well, first of all, it's -- obviously, it's a big change for Dollarstore customers. As mentioned, it used to be the entry-level product and very, very low-priced products. The biggest part, absolutely the biggest part of the business was done with the product which cost either SEK 10 or SEK 20, meaning like EUR 0.90 or EUR 1.80. These products, we had quite a lot of problems with -- especially with the quality and the sustainability with these products. Now we've -- basically, we've cleared a big part of this assortment in Dollarstore -- in the stores. And nowadays, it's a lot of Tokmanni private labels, which are -- all are tested and sustainable products. And we know where they're coming from, we know exactly how they are and we can rely on the quality as well as the customers can rely on the quality. As we, well, had the price comparison with Aftonbladet, we're able to compete with the price level as well, even though the price level is slightly higher due to the better quality, but it is a big change for customers. Obviously, we've been interviewing customers on how they see the change. Obviously, they don't know the product. Yes, there are, like, for example, Kotikulta products, which actually are considered good quality products, but it's Kotikulta. It's a completely new brand in the Swedish market. And obviously, the customers they need to get used with Tokmanni private labels. But with the pilot stores that we've opened, we're very happy with the sales. And these stores are even bigger joint assortment than the 6,000 products. Some of the product groups where we are actually even surprised that they are working or performing that well are, for example, apparel. So the Tokmanni private label brands, Pola, you have the picture over here, and Catmandoo and Vaeltaja, they're actually doing pretty well in Sweden and in Denmark. So these are very, let's say, convincing development. But yes, it is new products for customers, a new setup. So it's not -- doesn't happen like this that the customers will be right away happy with everything. But we are doing some -- a lot of commercial actions to ensure customers and encourage them to buy the new products. That was a long answer, sorry for that.

Arttu Heikura

Analysts
#13

I guess you are aware of the situation with [ ÖoB ] and Europris, they have kind of similar concept change in Sweden. Q4 was good for them in like-for-like terms. How do you see the market environment in Sweden and competitive perspective of that?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#14

Yes. First of all, competition is obviously very hard in Sweden as it's all over. That's no news basically. And yes, of course, [ ÖoB ] is one of the competitors, but so there are much bigger competitors as well. And yes, obviously, we're very well aware of the development with Europris and ÖoB could imagine actually that the Europris and ÖoB is slightly ahead of Tokmanni Dollarstore with the development. But as we are going to the same direction. And I think that Swedish market, if we compare, for example, with Finland, it's more positive. There's room for -- well, in this case, both retailers for ÖoB and Dollarstore. And yes, there are much bigger competitors where we can also like win some market share, actually to both companies. But yes, of course, the competition is there. We have slightly different strategies with Europris and Tokmanni regarding Sweden. But I think there is plenty of room for both companies.

Arttu Heikura

Analysts
#15

Then my last question is, you had some legal situation in Denmark. Is it just limited to 1 store or could that be kind of larger impact from the legal perspective? Could you maybe open up the situation for us?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#16

Yes, it's considering 1 store. But yes, of course, it could affect on the -- well, basically, the whole Danish market. It's not only big dollar that we have in Denmark, but it's the whole Danish market. And it's about the grocery sales. First of all, I think that it will take some time before the decisions will be over there, and we have plenty of time to adapt the situation. Obviously, we're happy to sell nonfood products, and we've been studying the Danish market as well, like, okay, where can we especially invest with the nonfood products and how can we be successful with the nonfood product, if we need to limit the groceries? But, of course, it's very -- well, it needs to, first of all, for example, define like what is considered groceries and this kind of things. So it's going to take some time. But I think we're pretty well prepared with the future situation in Denmark. And of course, it -- we do have like a limited amount of stores in Denmark, at the moment 12 stores, so we are able to make quick moves over there as well. Then we take the next one, Miika Ihamaki.

Miika Ihamaki

Analysts
#17

This is Miika from DNB Carnegie. So quickly on the sales guidance for '26, which implies approximately 3% to 8% growth from last year, even though like-for-like revenue declined in both segments now in Q4, whilst we see the reported revenue growing 3% mainly due to new openings and FX tailwinds. So I would like to understand how much of the '26 sales growth expectation is driven by new store openings and improvement in like-for-like sales? Because given that we're seeing the like-for-like customer flows decreasing a Dollarstore now second quarter in a row and in fact, quite deeply given these assortment changes, why should we expect the sales to return to positive territory already next year?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#18

Or this year, actually.

Miika Ihamaki

Analysts
#19

Yes, this year.

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#20

Yes. Well, as I already mentioned several times, Dollarstore is -- it's a lot of things over there under construction. And we feel that we've done some very, very good action points, for example, especially with the pilot stores. As mentioned, already, it's almost like double the sales with the pilot stores, which we will go to -- I mean, we will be developing Dollarstore to that direction because the results with sales are very encouraging. So yes, we definitely do believe that we are able to make the change in Dollarstore. But of course, as already mentioned, year 2025 was -- sales wise very bad also in Finland and especially in the first half and the second half wasn't that good either. We expect the economic atmosphere to improve during 2026. And obviously, we expect a better development from Tokmanni as well. But of course, the main -- and as you also mentioned, the main focus is on Dollarstore and I think that we know pretty well what to do as soon as we get the IT systems and the supply chain working efficiently, then we're able to also speed up with conversion with this kind of new concept that we've been testing now for a while already in Sweden.

Miika Ihamaki

Analysts
#21

Right. And then second question is on your SPAR performance. You said that the stores have delivered excellent results. Can you further elaborate on this one and confirm whether their Q4 sales growth exceeded the market growth of 1.9%?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#22

Sorry, could you please repeat? I kind of missed one part of your question.

Miika Ihamaki

Analysts
#23

Yes. So the question was that as you say, SPAR stores in Finland have delivered excellent results. Can you further elaborate on this one and then confirm whether the SPAR Q4 sales growth exceeded the market growth of 1.9%?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#24

Yes. Well, if I touch the last point, as I mentioned last year, both the food sales in the SPAR stores, the food sales and the total sales, it was like double-digit sales increase. It has continued this year as well. So hopefully, that answers your questions regarding the market situation. And yes, we're very happy with that. Obviously, we are learning a lot from SPAR at the moment. There are actually a bunch of SPAR people this week and more coming next week to Finland since they're supporting us with the Jarvenpaa opening. I think it's -- that is the very crucial point for the learning for Tokmanni Group regarding the SPAR. SPAR International is like -- it's a global retailer -- global retailer group with more than 14,000 stores all over the world. And of course, they have a huge amount of professionalism and expertise and they've been studying also, together with us, the Finnish market. And obviously, we have been learning quite a lot with this new -- with the first 3 stores, and now we will be speeding up the conversion of the current stores. Let's see how it happens. We don't publish any, let's say, market share targets. We are working 1 store at the moment, one by one. But we're happy with the development. It looks very good for us at the moment. Thank you, Miika. And the next one is Maria Wikstrom.

Maria Wikstrom

Analysts
#25

Yes. I also wanted to touch on the sales growth guidance for 3% to 8% for this year. And I wonder that I mean, if the development in the beginning of the year gives you a guidance, I mean, that gives you confidence to guide for growth within that range despite the negative like-for-like development for both of the concepts during Q4?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#26

Yes. Of course, the first quarter for the whole Tokmanni Group, it's absolutely -- sales-wise, the lowest and most difficult when it comes to the results. So obviously, cannot really make too big conclusions from the first quarter, but the second quarter, of course, is the second most important for Tokmanni. So at the moment, based on the first 2 months, it's too early to say that much. Let's see how the spring starts. At the moment, it looks pretty well -- pretty good actually for the coming weekend.

Maria Wikstrom

Analysts
#27

And then also here, I think, I mean Kesko commented that they had like a negative mix in the hypermarket nonfood sales during Q4, which I interpret that the winter actually started only after Christmas here in Finland, and you as well, I mean, sell a lot of winter clothes. So what do you see -- what's the impact in Q4? And do you see that you have more items on sale now during the Q1 that we should be worried about the gross margin development in the first quarter?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#28

Well, first of all, you're absolutely right with the winter, as I call it, a strong winter, but that's been in January, February and until Christmas, obviously, we had an extremely warm weather. And yes, they were actually in the beginning, and Tapio might remember better than I do, but we did have pretty strong sales over there, especially with the winter products. Basically, we sold out, for example, heaters and this kind of products, also the winter clothing. We were able to clear the inventory pretty nicely. Yes, it affected the fourth quarter, but -- my, let's say, gut feeling is that the low sales, let's say, the lower basket size during the fourth quarter, especially for Tokmanni, that was due to the carefulness of our customers. The atmosphere, if you remember during the end of last year, was very, very negative. I think it's slightly improving at the moment, but it showed it was the -- we could see, and of course, we were doing some surveys as well, where we basically noticed that the customers are really careful. That was probably one of the key drivers for the lower basket in Tokmanni. The comparable customer visits in Tokmanni during the fourth quarter was basically on par with previous year. So yes, but that's how I feel the difference with the winter timing, but I don't think that we could draw any special conclusions regarding the gross margin with the first quarter. But Tapio may answer that.

Tapio Arimo

Executives
#29

Yes. So obviously, we have the January results and February sales when we, let's say, confirm the guidance, if that's what you're asking about. But of course, we don't comment on the future performance more than the guidance, which is set for the whole year. And I think like Mika said, Dollarstore is a turnaround case at the moment, and of course, we expect it to turn around during the year.

Maria Wikstrom

Analysts
#30

Yes. And then I wanted to go -- I mean, more deeply on the sales performance of the Dollarstore. And I mean you mentioned that, I mean the pilot stores have been successful, I mean, with the new assortment. But if we think about like more broader perspective, then where the sales performance very different like in a normal store if you compare the private label assortment versus like the branded or the previous assortment of a Dollarstore?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#31

So which product group, you mean?

Maria Wikstrom

Analysts
#32

Yes. So I'm kind of interested in the performance of the private label assortment outside these pilot stores. So the ones where you have a smaller assortment, and I think still a lot of the products that you sell in the Dollarstore has really -- has not been adjusted for the -- like the Swedish market, so that they would have like the Swedish product name and product title at first, but like a lot of product, I think, I mean, has also the Finnish titles, like mentioned first in the product. So kind of interested if the Swedish consumer comfortable buying a product that has the Finnish title with like a bigger letters? Very difficult to ask the question, but hopefully, you understand what I mean.

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#33

Okay. Well, it's clear with Tokmanni that -- with the whole Tokmanni Group that our, let's say, our aim is to find a competitive advantage with the price level and the wider assortment. And yes, you're absolutely right, it's a lot of new products for -- with the Finnish titles, but like -- as you, especially, Maria, you know that we're a bilingual country, so we always have like in Swedish as well, the product labels, but they've been the average Dollarstores, the private labels, they've been successful. As you can see, the basket size is higher. But basically, the customers are missing very, very low-priced products. And yes, we've added some of those products to basically to bridge the situation, but we cannot compromise with the quality. We think that when we're able to offer even wider assortment and show in several different categories, as we've done in the pilot stores, that the assortment is wider and the price level is very competitive, we believe that, that will be the successful way forward.

Maria Wikstrom

Analysts
#34

And then finally, on the adjusted EBIT guidance range of EUR 85 million to EUR 105 million. First of all, can you discuss, I mean, what happens? I mean, if you end up on a -- I mean, this very low level that what was reached in 2025? And then how much this guidance range? I mean, what is the -- how much is -- I mean, if we end up in the middle of the range, which has a EUR 10 million growth, how much of that is based on the Tokmanni brand and how much on the successful turnaround of the Dollarstore?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#35

Well, Tapio, maybe if I first comment and you may continue then. Yes, first of all, if you take a look at the Tokmanni segment and year 2025, the first 2 halves were -- sorry, the first 2 quarters, meaning the first half of 2025, as already mentioned several times, was very difficult for Tokmanni segment. But with the second half of 2025, we have been improving the results basically during the both quarters and especially the fourth quarter was actually quite good improvement with Tokmanni segment profit. So obviously, we're confident that we will continue with this. The cost control is very tight at the moment. And obviously, we're working on this growth issues like the low price program and SPAR and so on. So yes, we're -- first of all, we're quite confident with Tokmanni. Now for Dollarstore, it has -- the performance has been for the whole year of 2025, it was basically very bad and much worse than the previous year. Basically, we've done already better business, and we are very much on the building phase, but we definitely believe that this year, we are already able to get better results and also bring new customers to see the Dollarstore with a wider assortment and with a very competitive pricing and the price level. So it's -- we believe that the result improvement for this year comes from both segments. But Tapio...

Tapio Arimo

Executives
#36

Yes. So of course we have -- we built scenarios for both segments individually and then the guidance is a combination of those 2. So if everything goes well, then we're at the high end, and if everything goes not so well, then we're at the low end, it's pretty simple. It's not super difficult to think like that.

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#37

Thank you, Maria. And the next one is Svante Krokfors.

Svante Krokfors

Analysts
#38

A couple of questions. I know we are a bit overdue here. But regarding Dollarstore and I mean in a concept change that you are implementing, it's understandable that average or like-for-like customers, we see decline and you try to get like-for-like basket size up. But how long do you think that this process and adjustment will take until the basket size like-for-like exceeds the decline in like-for-like customer visits?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#39

How long? I wish I could tell you the date and knowing my situation, I wouldn't -- as you can understand, I wouldn't like to promise anything that I won't be myself responsible. But maybe, Tapio, would you like to comment on this one?

Tapio Arimo

Executives
#40

Yes, of course, it's very difficult to say exact date, but we have, of course, a firm belief that all the actions that we are doing, they will result in the, let's say, turnaround of the business. Of course, I expect that to happen during this year.

Svante Krokfors

Analysts
#41

Okay. And then regarding the -- could you elaborate a bit on the gross margin development in Dollarstore, which has been a bit on a negative trend? And what's the reason behind that? And what your actions are to improve that?

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#42

Well, still in the end of last year, I think that we were having quite a lot of sales regarding the old inventory and things like this. At the moment, we're pretty confident with the gross margin with Dollarstore. Obviously, the first quarter last year was quite a dramatic drop with Dollarstore gross margin. So that's, of course, something that we don't want to have like dramatic drops with gross margin anymore. So obviously, we're taking care of that. Yes, it might be that we -- or we -- obviously, we want more customers in the stores, and we will be investing on that, but I think we're managing that part pretty well at the moment. Okay, I think that's all the questions. So thank you very much. There is one more question from [ Oscar Matheson ].

Unknown Analyst

Analysts
#43

I was curious about, can you say anything about how you expect leverage to develop going forward, given that your net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is still above your target and that you're now entering your low season?

Tapio Arimo

Executives
#44

Of course, it jumps up always, so Q4 is the lowest. So it will go up. But of course, we are managing that very carefully. And inventory management that we are doing at the moment, it will help in the leverage. But of course, the other flip side of the coin is, especially if you look at the -- including the lease liabilities, we do have 12 more stores compared to last year, that drives up the lease liabilities. So we expect that to continue to creep up slowly as we add new stores. But let's say, the leverage, excluding the lease liabilities there, we expect that to go down during the year, not like super fast, but slowly.

Mika Rautiainen

Executives
#45

Okay. I think that, that was all the questions. Thank you very much. Have a sunny and commercial weekend. Thank you.

Tapio Arimo

Executives
#46

Thank you.

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