Traton SE (8TRA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 4, 2026

XTRA DE Industrials Machinery Earnings Calls 45 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Ursula Querette

Executives
#1

Hello, everyone, and welcome to TRATON's Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results Call. I am Ursula Querette, Head of Investor Relations. With me on the call is our CEO, Christian Levin; and our CFO and CHRO, Dr. Michael Jackstein. Since we published our IR presentation and a prerecorded annual results video on our website early this morning, we will use this 1-hour session for Q&A only. We are happy to take questions from analysts, investors and the media. Please note that this session will be recorded, and a replay will be made available on our website later today. The disclaimer on forward-looking statements on Page 2 of our IR presentation applies throughout this call. [Operator Instructions] I am sure there are many topics to discuss. Let's start with 2 questions per participant and add more if time permits.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#2

So the first question comes from Meihan Yang from Goldman Sachs.

Meihan Yang

Analysts
#3

I just have 2 questions. So first of all, given the strong orders you have seen in Europe, have you made any adjustments in your production plan in Europe? And I'll take the second question.

Christian Levin

Executives
#4

All right. Thanks, Meihan. This is Christian speaking. Yes, indeed, we have a positive order momentum in Europe. It actually started to build up already at the end of last year. We had really strong order intake in both the MAN and Scania in October, November. December is always a bit weaker because that's a short month with the holidays. But the trend continues throughout January and now confirmed also for February. So yes, we have made, as we have communicated several adjustments throughout last year, mainly down. But now we start to see order queues and especially in the Scania order book that is a little bit too long. So yes, we have decided to increase our production capacity. And by that, we actually reemploy some of the people as from April that had to unfortunately leave the company during the second half of last year. MAN, we are currently running on the same factory capacity, but if the good trend continues, we will have to do adjustment upwards also there.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#5

Okay. Thank you. Meihan, did you have a second one?

Meihan Yang

Analysts
#6

Yes. Just on the Scania impact -- sorry, the China impact for the Scania margin. So you said the China factory wouldn't be breakeven until 2028. Could you give us a bit more color like on the pathway to 2028? So how much impact will be expected this year and going forward as well?

Christian Levin

Executives
#7

Absolutely. It's Christian again. I can just start with the general outlook and then Michael will take the financial impact. But as you know, we went live in October last year. We delivered the first Scania trucks to customers in November. And since then, we are ramping up production for Scania customers. Scania customers, both in China, but we are now also reaching the first couple of export markets that will grow throughout the year. We also launched the NEXT ERA product, the value segment product or B+ as it is called in China, with the first deliveries to dealers already happening and the first deliveries to customers coming in later here in the month of -- this month of March. Our results from last year was that we managed to get 700. That's a modest figure, but that was part of our ramp-up plan. And we are expecting to reach 10,000 units already this year. That requires that we can continue to fill the production for the Scania, both for China and export and NEXT ERA, which is only destined to China. Given that the production capacity technically is 45,000 or 50,000 units, there is, of course, yet a bit to go to reach a positive result from this factory. But then I hand over to you, Michael.

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#8

Yes. Super. Thanks, Christian, Meihan. Yes, let me maybe come back to what we said a couple of times last year. Last year, we said that the investment in China will be roughly EUR 2 billion. We now know that we spent so far EUR 1.7 billion, so a little bit less than we anticipated. We also mentioned that we believe for 2025, we would spend EUR 1 billion, about half of that amount would be expensed. Now it turned out that EUR 400 million were directly expensed, EUR 125 million in Q4. So for the full year, you can say this is also EUR 100 million less than expected. But looking a little bit ahead, and this was also what you were [indiscernible] where Christian gave you a little bit more figures regarding the ramp-up. You should expect also for 2026 continuously ramp-up costs. We believe that they will be pretty much in the same ballpark when it comes to the expense number like in 2025 to give you an estimate here. And then it goes without saying also just complementing or underlining what Christian said, taking into account the capacity that we have and that we intend to produce roughly 10,000. There is a way to go until we reach breakeven. It goes without saying that's higher than a volume of 10,000, but it's also well below the capacity that we have installed there. This is why, by the way, fully in line with our capital markets communication that we had 1st of October 2024. We said, yes, there will be some margin dilution until 2029 or in other words, as you said, we will reach -- anticipate to reach the breakeven in 2028. So that's to complement from the financial side.

Christian Levin

Executives
#9

Yes. And to give you a bit more details then on the order intake situation, we have a healthy order book, both for Scania and the NEXT ERA brand, which gives us a lead time around 3 months. So we're exactly where we would like to be. We're producing between 10 and 20 trucks a day. That will, of course, have to increase in order to reach the 10,000. And we are now very, very curious to get the feedback from the first customer who received delivery of the brand-new product, which we call them NEXT ERA. And I think we will get this reaction to tell you already at the next quarterly results call.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#10

Christian, maybe one thing we should add, not all the 10,000 are incremental because some of the Scania previous export volumes will now be done out of China. That's important for the analysts.

Christian Levin

Executives
#11

So that's perfectly right, Ursula, and that's also part of the plan. We will need to release production capacity for the next peak in Europe. Now we're not saying that the next peak is going to be this year, but it's certainly going to be at some time in the future. And we want to increase the ability to deliver with short lead times to Scania customers in the entire Asian region, including actually the Pacific. So -- and that is happening as we speak. We see the increased flexibility that we create in the system. And we already had one big order where we couldn't even deliver out of China because of capacity restriction, and then we were glad to see that we can reallocate that to Brazil. So already good flexibility with Brazil and Europe, and now we add even more flexibility, which you can imagine in the future with even more customs or tariff discussions. Now we have a war suddenly that can disrupt flows of products. I think we have created really good resilience, especially for the Global South.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#12

Thank you. Meihan, anything else? Or can we go to the next question?

Meihan Yang

Analysts
#13

If I may just squeeze in maybe one more then. What's kind of like you mentioned about in your presentation, you're planning for several mitigation measures in the U.S. to just mitigate the tariff Section 232 cost. Could you give us a little bit more color on what kind of measures you're planning?

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#14

Well, yes, of course, it's Michael. I mean, as you know from last year, of course, we have taken measures already last year. So for example, we have taken out the second shift in Escobedo, was beginning of the second quarter, where we have laid off significant amount of colleagues there. And then we have typically sort of a playbook in place as always when we enter into a down cycle. So of course, we have applied all these things being restricted from travels, hiring freezes, et cetera. So this is in place. But taking into account the situation, especially the tariff burden, you can say that is not enough. This is why we have taken another step beginning of this year, where we have looked especially at, let's say, the higher management structures where we had another significant layoff of people. So we are adapting to the situation. If I answer it also in a little broader context, then this is also what we said during our presentation here. It's not only up to International to, let's say, mitigate the tariff burden that we expect for this year because it's quite obvious. I mean, we had to deal with the IEEPA steel and aluminum tariffs for 3 quarters. But only in the fourth quarter, we were hit then by the 232 Section tariffs. And this is something what we will have to deal with for the entire year 2026. So this is where we have the common understanding in the entire TRATON Group that we compensate here for the tariff burdens. We work on all kinds of cost initiatives, our brands. I could mention the redundancy notice you heard about last year at Scania, and MAN2030+ is another example. But we are also looking into our enabling functions. So we are really doing the cost work. This is on top of our priority list for 2026 as I was into to work together here with international to offset the tariff burden in the best possible way.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#15

Okay. Thank you. Next question then comes from Alex Jones from Bank of America.

Alexander Jones

Analysts
#16

Perfect. If I can ask 2 on the U.S., I guess, one on orders. You've seen very strong orders at an industry level in the past couple of months. I'd be interested in your views on sort of the key drivers of that. And in particular, whether you think there's any prebuy there ahead of potential tariff-driven price increases. I guess you have visibility on sort of your market share of those orders and whether you have seen a higher market share if people are anticipating potential pricing from you given the Mexican footprint. And then the second question, just on U.S. content. It'd be interesting to know the assumption you made on the U.S. content in the EUR 60 million 232 tariffs that you booked in Q4. And when your expectation is to get clarity on how the administration will calculate that and what the key things you're discussing with them around that?

Ursula Querette

Executives
#17

Thank you, Alex. So one question for Christian and one for Michael. Christian?

Christian Levin

Executives
#18

Yes, sure. So first of all, the positive order intake momentum for the whole industry, as you have noticed, started in December already and then has continued to improve throughout January and February came in really, really strong. I think it's the highest figure we've seen since back in September '22. Why is that? Well, there are, of course, several factors. One is the replacement need. We have been running below replacement need in the U.S. now for quite some time. Secondly, we feel that there's a bit more optimism coming back to our customer base, thanks to improved transport rates. We are actually in a recession in the U.S. which has hit the market pretty hard. So we have seen an accelerated consolidation amongst our customers. We have seen bankruptcies. We see -- yes, we've actually seen a decrease of capacity. And if you only add these 2 up, I think that creates pent-up demand that we now start to see. And we can actually only speculate whether on top of that, there is already a prebuy effect. I think customers well, I mean, they know that there will be a price increase related to EPA27 products. They probably understand that many of the -- or all of the OEMs have had to adjust their production capacity downwards and that there is a certain reaction time as there always is in the swings in the U.S. that are typically the biggest in the world. So to position themselves, it is wise to start to place orders. And I guess there is also a portion of that into the really good figures of January and February. To our market share, yes, we, first of all, managed to keep our close to 50% market share in 2025 despite our disadvantageous situation that Michael will talk more about in relation to the tariffs and you saw the effect on our results. But it's important to us to keep a certain volume, and our long-term plan is to take 1% per year as we improve both our product service and services offering. So yes, in these order intake figures, we feel comfortable that we continue on around about 15% share of the market. And we are, of course, eager to challenge our competitors to continue to grow slowly in the market as we go forward. I stop there and hand over to you, Michael, on the U.S. content and our negotiations with the authorities.

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#19

Sure. Thanks, Christian. Thanks, Alex, for the question. Well, there's obviously a lot to say when it comes to the tariffs. You asked specifically about, let's say, the offsets here from U.S. content, let me -- nevertheless, also because Christian just mentioned also the IEEPA tariffs, let me maybe take the chance to give you a little bit the broader picture here. And let me start with the IEEPA and steel and aluminum tariffs. Just also to give you a number here. So we have seen a figure of EUR 50 million for the quarter for IEEPA and steel aluminum tariffs here coming from a little bit lower numbers in Q2 and Q3. Why were the numbers lower? You might recall, we had a tariff rate of 25% here first steel aluminum that went up then to 50%. So we have a higher figure now of EUR 50 million in the fourth quarter and maybe also something that might be of interest for you when we look into 2026, of course. We believe that with the higher volume and I mean, as Christian just mentioned, it was a difficult year, especially in the U.S. If there is higher volume and you just heard the indications or you were also into the indications, then this goes in line also with a potential higher amount per quarter for IEEPA and steel and aluminum tariffs. Just also to give you that transparency here. Then let me come to the 232 section tariffs that you were into. They are in place since 1st of November. So you can say we have the effect for 2 months here in our books. We had an effect of EUR 60 million for the 232 section tariffs in the fourth quarter, meaning for the 2 months, November and December. And now coming precisely to your question, so in the fourth quarter, we recorded a receivable for roughly half of the content we expect to recover. So that's one important information. I believe, especially when you want to get, let's say, a better feeling about what to expect in our P&L and also regarding the net cash flow in 2026. And there, I would really like to guide you a little bit and say you should expect, 2 different halves to phrase it like this. So in the first half of the year, -- we will -- when we talk about the net cash flow, we don't expect that -- let me put it like this, we will get the refunds in the first half, but rather in the second half of this year. And we also took a more prudent view, as I said, recording the receivable for approximately half of the content we, in the end, expect to recover, which also has an effect then on the P&L in the first half compared to the second half. This then, I think, is a good segue, answering also your question, and this is, of course, not with certainty when do we expect to reach an agreement here with the U.S. administration. I can just say that we work on reaching an agreement, of course, as soon as possible. When I say as soon as possible, I don't believe, and you see my careful wording. I don't believe that we will reach that before the second quarter, potentially more in the third quarter, which is then also the explanation why you should expect regarding the P&L and the net cash flow effects, why you should expect 2 different halves in 2026. So I hope that the holistic view of IEEPA steel aluminum tariffs, 232 Section tariffs, including here the receivable that we recorded gives you a better understanding of what to expect in 2026.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#20

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from [ Rakesh Pagar ] from [ Barat. ] I fear we have lost Rakesh. Maybe you can queue again for the question. In the meantime, let's take Harry Martin from Bernstein.

Harry Martin

Analysts
#21

So I wanted to start just with a shorter-term question. You've outlined some of it, but the outlook for the Q1 margin to be below the full year range. The international margin probably takes another step back as that 2 months of Section 232 goes to an entire quarter. But does the profitability outside of the North American business also ramp through the year? Or is that more stable? And then secondly, I wanted to ask if you could give some sort of perspective of the impact of higher oil and energy prices on the demand for trucks generally. Could you help us with some sensitivity if oil was, say, above $80 a barrel for an extended period, typically, what would happen to truck orders? And then maybe in China, could we even see an even faster shift towards the battery electric trucks if fuel prices are higher this year? And would that impact your initial expectations of the Scania plant as well?

Ursula Querette

Executives
#22

Michael, do you want to start with margin, profitability?

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#23

Yes, I can start with that, Harry. Thanks for the question. I think you already tackled here the North American situation. And I could come back to what I mentioned before. So especially when we look at the 232 Section tariffs and that we expect the positive effect as I was into before, without repeating everything, clearly in the second half of this year, this is certainly one of the explanations. Another explanation is that we have usual seasonal effects. So typically, when you also go back in time, you see that the first quarter is not, let's say, as strong as the other quarters. So that's another aspect you have seen when you take into account our talk release that we have done really well on the net cash flow because we worked intensively on the working capital management aspect here and especially when it comes to inventories, we have done a really good job. So these are the couple of seasonal effects that come into play, why we wanted to give you a little bit better understanding, taking into account that the broader guidance range that we have laid out that you have a good estimate for the first quarter where we indicated that we believe that we will see a margin here below the full year guidance range. And these are the predominant effects for that. With that, looking at Christian, if you want to complement?

Christian Levin

Executives
#24

Yes. So then it was a good question, how does higher oil and gas and energy prices affect our sector. And I mean, first of all, and you know probably better than me, there are correlations between oil prices and the general economic development, where high energy prices are bad, of course. So from that perspective, it's, of course, not good that oil prices skyrocket or rather gas prices skyrocket prices go up. For us, in our own situation, we're not a very energy-intensive sector. So it is, of course, not good, but it's not something that will directly hit our product cost. We have plastics, of course, that will also increase in prices, but that's not -- that's a big part of the truck, but it's not significant, I would say. The interesting thing, which is new, which we do not have any historical data is, of course, how does this accelerate that expectation but the change is, of course, the total cost of ownership to the detriment of the combustion engine vehicle, which is exactly what we have been asking for, especially in Europe. Now you touched China where the uptake of electric truck has already surpassed 25% in 2025, and we saw a December that was almost unbelievable with a 40% penetration of heavy electric trucks, whereas we in Europe are hovering in and around 2%. So will this be the game changer? I don't think so. But it is certainly going to change on the margin in certain cases where today, the fuel -- the diesel truck is winning towards the electric truck winning the pure TCO cost. Then of course, customers have to have a certain view on -- will this continue for how long? What's the outlook? You may remember that in our assumptions that we would reach 10% battery electric vehicle last year [indiscernible] come to 50% in 2030, we assume much lower electricity prices in Europe that was before the war. And we assumed much higher diesel prices, which for different reasons has not come. Maybe they're coming now. Sorry for going a bit outside. I do not have a ratio of how this would impact the market directly, but a few considerations to put into your calculation.

Harry Martin

Analysts
#25

That's very useful. If I can just squeeze in a follow-up on the order momentum in the U.S. Have the recent orders placed being for build slots on the normal 6- to 8-week delivery time line? Or is there any sort of unusual extension by larger fleets placing, for example, their entire 2026 renewals all at the start of the year, whereas usually it will be a bit more spread out?

Christian Levin

Executives
#26

So, no, the simple answer is no. So this is what we would consider more normal retail and some fleet customers, but it's not like someone is hedging our order book. We have also not decided yet at least to increase production capacity, but we are comfortable with the current lead time. Of course, this is something we evaluate every month, so that's very well changed throughout March.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#27

Thank you, Harry. Actually, there are no more questions in the queue. [Operator Instructions]

Christian Levin

Executives
#28

We have Rakesh back.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#29

We have Hampus coming into the queue. So Hampus, I'll put you on loud speaker. Please go ahead, Hampus from Handelsbanken.

Hampus Engellau

Analysts
#30

Okay. Could you maybe -- I would be interested to hear your thoughts on your EPA drivetrain and configuration for the EPA27 truck in terms of price increases, what are you aiming for? And also, if you would look at your testing on the fuel consumption and maybe also real-time testing from your customers who's testing the product, how does TCO compare to the 2026 model?

Christian Levin

Executives
#31

Hampus, Christian here. Yes, I'm not sure. I will tell you all of that, to be honest. But let me say that we -- when we started the so-called FTP project, what is now the common base engine 1 for the TRATON Group. We had already supply contract made up with former Navistar, and we knew that we have to be competitive in the North American market. So already from the pre-study, we knew there would be EPA27 and we knew there would be Euro 7, and these were where we needed to be extremely competitive. So the entire base engine is developed to be the best in the industry for EPA27. And being best in the industry means 2 things. It means predominantly at least 2 things. That means being really good on fuel consumption and then being really good on product cost. And apart from that, you have the service intervals and you have the reliability and you have the weight of the driveline, et cetera, et cetera, where we be also that we are competitive. It's too early to proclaim victory. Of course, we don't know what the others are going to bring to the market. We know their platforms. and we can make our assessments. But my gut feeling so far and the feedback from our engineers and our ongoing testing in the market is that we are going to come out really, really strong in '27. We will have a product that consumes very fuel, and we will have a product that has a very small cost disadvantage. What we're curious to learn is, of course, where is the market price increase going to end up. And based on that, we're going to take our tactical decisions where to place this product in the market. So commercially right now, we're, of course, eager to collect as many orders as possible on the current engine emission generation, where we also have a very, very competitive product. with the expert team in international. And then we're going to come back on the tactics, but I'm sorry, I'm not going to share that with you today.

Hampus Engellau

Analysts
#32

Can I just have one -- just a follow-up because some of your competitors have indicated price increases in the range of $8,000 to maybe $11,000. And when I've been talking to you guys previously, you kind of thought that was on the high side. Is that still the case if you look at what you could maybe -- just trying to grasp how competitive you could be.

Christian Levin

Executives
#33

Yes, exactly. No. But yes, we still work with the scenario that this -- that the market price increase is actually going to be around USD 10,000. And I would be very happy to see there. Let's put it like that.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#34

Thank you, Hampus. Okay. Then I would say there's no more question in the queue. So with this, we can conclude today's call. Thank you for joining us today. If there is anything more to discuss, please contact the Investor Relations team. Enjoy the -- I see Nicolai who joined. Should we take?

Christian Levin

Executives
#35

Of course. We should.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#36

Of course, let's take Nicolai. Let me put him on speaker. Now I think we could hear Nicolai.

Nicolai Kempf

Analysts
#37

Can you hear me?

Ursula Querette

Executives
#38

Yes.

Nicolai Kempf

Analysts
#39

Okay. Perfect. Yes, I have some technical issues. On the very strong orders in U.S. over the last month, can you highlight whether you have raised price for these orders? Because I think it's just a risk that maybe clients have used their pricing power over the last months because the market has just been weak to place a lot of orders and maybe that you have missed out raising prices accordingly.

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#40

Nicolai, from my point of view, I would not say that's an issue. If we go back, I mean, we have seen in Q4, good order intake in October. We had then counter effect in November. And then as you heard before in the call, that we had a good figure again in December in a way, also in line with the official data. We have seen, I would say, quite an okay-ish to good order intake so far at the beginning of the year. So that's pretty much what we see. it's very much in line with the overall market situation, where we see also slight positive signs, you can say, which is in addition also in line with our guidance when we look at the North American market, what we project regarding the midpoint for this year. So this is how I would put it into context.

Nicolai Kempf

Analysts
#41

Okay. Understood. And one follow-up on the tariff question. You mentioned EUR 50 million in Q4 for steel and aluminum and EUR 60 million for the Section 232. So in total, EUR 110 million, right, for Q4.

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#42

Yes. That's correct. The EUR 50 million are for IEEPA about steel and aluminum and the EUR 60 million -- so the EUR 50 million are for the entire Q4. And yes, also the EUR 60 million for the 232 section tariffs are for Q4. But here, you should take into account that the 232 section tariffs started in November -- 1st of November. So it's in Q4, but that's the number you can say for 2 months.

Nicolai Kempf

Analysts
#43

Did you already record the receivables of this impact of Section 232 tariffs in Q4, meaning that...

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#44

Half of the -- what we believe is going to be the U.S. content, half of it. This is why you might not have been in the call before. This is why I mentioned if you take that into account, that explains that we believe that we see 2 different halves of 2026 because on the P&L side, we expect then once and if we are successful here in negotiating U.S. content on the one hand side and then receiving the other 50% that we believe that we should get in. We see then an effect on the P&L side more in the second half of the year. And also when we talk about the net cash flow effect, we see 2 different halves of 2026.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#45

Okay. Nicolai, are you okay? Did that answer your question?

Nicolai Kempf

Analysts
#46

Yes, it did.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#47

We then have -- apparently, there are technical issues. We have received questions from Hemal Bhundia from UBS. So the first one, I would say we've answered. Let me quickly read it out, but it's answered. Could you provide some guidance on the fiscal year '26 tariff impact for international? And if possible, could you split this for both IEEPA and Section 232? I think we've done. Next question, on the net cash flow guidance, you mentioned you are targeting similar margins for fiscal year '25 and sales guidance implies flattish growth. Just wondering what you are thinking about on working capital and CapEx, Michael?

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#48

Yes, happy to take that one, Hemal. Situation is here the following. When you look at our net cash flow guidance, then we have a midpoint here of EUR 1.3 billion. When you look at our RoS guidance to put it into context here, we also have a midpoint of 6.3%. So I think it's important to mention that, of course, we are aiming for a higher level. That goes without saying. I mean, when we talk about the RoS margin, 6.3% is what we achieved in 2025. And yes, of course, our ambition is higher than what we achieved in the previous year. The reason why we came up with a broader guidance range I would say I'm just stating the obvious is because this world is much more uncertain. We have seen in the past, and we cannot out rule this also for 2026, potential disruptions in the supply chain. We are coming from a year 2025 where the tariff policies created quite some disturbances, I would say. And then also, we said a couple of times, unfortunately, we cannot rule out that there is another war in this world, but we have just seen here the start of the war against Iran a couple of days ago. So this is why we believe the broader range is the right thing in this kind of situation we are in kind of world we are living in. To come back to the net cash flow guidance, I think here, it's important to say because I mentioned the midpoint, 6.3% for this year, same level as in the previous year. Yes, we are aiming for more, very important to state this. When we look at the net cash flow midpoint, then it's below the level of the previous year, where we achieved EUR 1.6 billion, which was a little bit better than anticipated. This is why we also issued the talk release. What was the reason for that? Extremely strong working capital management. So we did very well with regards to the inventories, but also when we look at the payables and receivables in all kinds of -- in all the constituents of the working capital, we did, let's say, a good job. So we didn't want to copy paste that 1:1 to 2026. What's the rationale for that? Because as we were into, we see the signs for a better European market. We see some signs, indications also for a potential better North American market in line with our market guidance. And if this takes place, then we also believe that we should see a better book-to-bill ratio in 2026 compared to 2025, which then translates into some prefinancing. Also, we expect that we potentially have then higher inventories at the end of 2026. Just to give you a little bit, let's say, the rationale and the math behind it, how we came up here with the net cash flow guidance. And then I stop, you also asked about CapEx. What I can say here is that we believe when we package R&D and CapEx that we should see a similar level in 2026 combined as in 2025. So I hope that gives you a little bit more light into these 2 aspects.

Christian Levin

Executives
#49

And maybe then we jump to the third question from Hemal on the truck orders in Europe.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#50

Should I read it out?

Christian Levin

Executives
#51

Yes, please Ursula.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#52

So the third one is on the truck orders, there was an increase in Europe, but Germany orders underperformed this. Any color or commentary you can provide on how German truck orders have performed year-to-date? Are you seeing the stimulus effect come through over January and February? And any key markets you could highlight driving the Q4 European orders, please?

Christian Levin

Executives
#53

Yes. So that was the disappointment from 2025. We expected the stimulus to not just directly positively impact Germany, but we thought it will even have a spreading effect throughout Europe. That did not happen. Actually, Germany was one of the laggard markets in '25 that did not recover according to plan. So -- and you were asking were there other markets, I think basically all markets, both South, North, East, West saw a good recovery towards the end of the year with the exception of Germany, Austria, Switzerland. So -- and hence, a little bit less positive order intake situation for MAN versus Scania MAN is heavily dependent on the DACH region. So what we've seen at the beginning of the year is also at the end of last year is that the money starts to trickle through, and we see concrete projects being made, but we do not yet see that translated into truck orders. Undoubtedly that is yet to come. So in a way, we have that in the bank. We just don't know when, but we're absolutely sure that is going to happen. Is there a psychological effect for surrounding markets, that's very hard to see. But there is definitely a very positive momentum around European markets in general. What we don't know is, of course, the last days impact when it comes to the war in Iran. Will that again create uncertainty and resistance to invest? I would not be surprised if that is the case. So it's a little bit hard to sit here and say Europe is going to develop very, very well. I think as we guided, we guided widely, we guided with a small increase. I think wisely because, yes, there is an underlying positive momentum, but at the same time, there are lots of risk. And right now, we just see one major risk materializing which is a war in the Middle East. So super hard to guide going forward. But I remain positive. I think that we are not wrong in our guidance. I think we could see a European heavy commercial vehicle market move up towards 300,000 again and with Germany coming along during the year. I stop there.

Ursula Querette

Executives
#54

Yes. Thank you, Christian. And I think this is a good conclusion to this call. No more questions in the queue. As I said, if there's anything more to discuss, please reach out to the Investor Relations team. Enjoy the rest of the day, and goodbye.

Michael Jackstein

Executives
#55

Goodbye.

Christian Levin

Executives
#56

Goodbye.

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