Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 10, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Financials Banks conference_presentation 43 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#1

Good morning, everybody. I'm very pleased to have with us from Truist, President and COO, Bill Rogers. And as many of you know, he'll be succeeding Kelly King as CEO in September of 2021. And with that, thank you, Bill, so very much for joining us today.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#2

My first question for you is you take over as CEO of Truist in less than a year. You've noted that the core conversion is on track for the first half of 2022. What strategic initiatives are you most excited to implement? And how has the pandemic, if at all, changed these priorities?

William Rogers

executive
#3

Yes. I mean, Erika, the major strategy and the major initiatives are the merger itself. I mean, that's -- and those are underway. I mean the things that were wanted to experience from the merger, the advantages of our teams working together, the 2 plus 2 equals 5, leveraging the capital markets, leveraging of the insurance, best of breed in terms of technology selection, so all those things are sort of a continuum of expectations that are being implemented now. We'll get to implement them more as we finish the conversion. A lot of those things will land. So it's not a power shift. It's just continuing to implement the things that we're doing and accentuate them and leverage them for productivity and more results.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#4

Thank you for that. Bill, I wanted just to take a step back. When you approached Legacy BB&T as the CEO of SunTrust for a partnership, what challenges did you foresee for the industry that could be solved for with by scale?

William Rogers

executive
#5

Yes. Look, in fairness, when Kelly and I first started talking, almost everything was offensive. I mean, what are all the things that we could do? And we saw the world in much the same way. We saw some of the larger banks winning in different ways. We saw marketing prowess. We saw net new accounts. We saw ubiquity. We saw the capacity and the need to continue to invest in the future and making sure that you're creating that. And all those were scale related, in some ways. So it was mostly, how do we do all those things? How do we do it from an offensive standpoint? But what's turned out is it's also been an incredible defensive play. So here we sit in an environment, and I think about all the opportunity costs that would have been sitting on either heritage organization. And we just don't have that burden. We've got a plan. We've got a cost save plan. We've got a revenue synergy plan. And our job is just to go out and execute that rather than create something from whole cloth, which is what we'd be doing otherwise. So great offensive play, but also just a superior defensive play in the environment that we sit in right now.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#6

So let's talk offense first because I think that a lot of investors especially appreciate and believe the revenue synergies that you talked about. So how can outsiders judge if the 2 cultures are integrating well during this process, as that's clearly an important base for business synergies?

William Rogers

executive
#7

Yes, it's a great question. And again, it's harder to see from the outside. But what I can say is, first, from the clients, they're experiencing it. So they're seeing that cooperation. They're -- if you're [Audio Gap] an industry specialist come in, you're feeling the client planning has been at a different level. You're being introduced to products and capabilities like insurance that maybe you didn't know existed before. So I think the client is really feeling that every day. I mean I think they're experiencing that. And then just the momentum that we're building on the revenue synergies, and that will start manifesting itself. Those have long sales cycles. They take longer. But that will start manifesting itself more in the top line. And the momentum that I feel every day, the cultural alignment, the teamwork, the finishing each other's sentences, having the right incentives in place, having the right leadership in place and all that, we did a lot of that pre-merger. So when the proverbial starting gun went off, we were really ready to go.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#8

So you mentioned that some of the synergies have a long sales cycle, but will start showing up in the top line. When do you think investors can start truly seeing it in the numbers?

William Rogers

executive
#9

Yes. Those have some environmental impacts, right? So we've got sort of the interest rate pressure and other things, but you're already starting to see it in some of the things like insurance and some of the capital markets and wealth and look at disproportionate growth on a relative basis. I think that's one of the things we look at sort of not just absolute, but look at relative. And then just over time, will our company have disproportionate revenue growth because the 2 plus 2 equal 5 synergies and the opportunities that we have to work together.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#10

Thank you for that. One of the main reasons underpinning the merger was to enlarge the bank's collective tech budget [Audio Gap] management learned so far from the pandemic with respect to how to prioritize tech investments? And why do you think the bank is in a better position today on this front versus how the legacy banks are set up or heritage banking?

William Rogers

executive
#11

Yes. Great question. If you think about it, I mean, we made a very conscious decision early on is to have this be a merger of equals. So instead of just one system goes on to the other system, we said, we have this opportunity to choose best-of-breed. So let's choose the things that are most relevant to -- by the way, all this makes it a little harder. It takes a little longer to do. But when you come out the other side, you're sort of at a high common denominator strategy with everything, high common denominator strategy with technology, with leadership, with process, with profiles. So all those decisions were made. And if you -- and we've had this -- because we're going through that, the muscle memory that we're creating on prioritization of how you choose, sort of what's the ROI, how do you prioritize, I mean, we're at -- there would be no bigger time in terms of making those decisions. So we're creating great muscle memory for our teams in terms of working together and making those prioritized decisions. We're having to do it under time constraints, so they're feeling the right amount of pressure. We're having to do it in terms of implementation. So they're learning how to implement and how to work well together and how to make all that happen. So the extra benefit of the merger is the muscle memory we're creating and the teamwork we're creating on selecting systems and prioritization, to the point of your question, that I think it's going to have just tremendous benefit for us not only within the merger, but as soon as everything is completed, it will be a [Audio Gap] for us to work from.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#12

So Bill, as a piggyback from that, you and the management team have been asked this question a lot recently. In terms of client-facing, how are the recent uptick in digital adoption have lasting implications for the importance of physical branch presence and the transactions that occur in those physical branches? And I have a follow-up question after that.

William Rogers

executive
#13

Well, and to try to tie the 2 questions together, so if you think about it, I mean environmentally, the choices that clients are making, both on the consumer and the commercial side, have never been more accentuated than they are right now. So the digital adoption, whatever slope we were on, the slope has doubled in some way. So the fact that we're making these system selections, and we're making these marketing selections, and we're making these choices right now in that environment. So think about we have the absolute most amount of client feedback from their actions than we've ever had as an industry, and we're making decisions right in that time line. So that feels really good to us of being able to take advantage and make those decisions. And then in the compare and contrast is, we have a decision to make. And in sort of prior legacies, we'd be much more in a cost-cutting mode. We would be bound by wherever we were. So whatever system we are on or whatever decisions we make, we would be bound by that, and that would have long cycles for changing. Whereas today, we're creating a lot of flexibility. We're creating a platform that's not only durable, but it has much more flexibility than either organization would have had on a stand-alone basis. So it's really a -- it's an incredible time. I mean, obviously, we didn't anticipate we'd be in a pandemic. We didn't anticipate that the digital adoption would increase sort of exponentially from where we were, and being able to make choices and decisions in that environment is just a huge advantage right now.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#14

So as you think about making decisions based on this data, how much of this adoption do you think is permanent? And part of it ties to the question that you're getting from investors. Can you get more out of your physical infrastructure in terms of costs? And could that mean more than the $1.6 billion of savings that you've already identified?

William Rogers

executive
#15

Well, it's a multipronged question. But the point is yes, we're also making the decisions just like we are on the investments. We're also making those same decisions in our physical locations in this environment. So we're able to deal with, again, the most kind of real-time information. It's really interesting. We just looked at a study, and it was sort of a client satisfaction, where are clients happiest and where do they engage most and where the relationship is deepest. And it's at 2 ends of the spectrum. Those who deal almost exclusively in the physical footprint and those who deal almost exclusively in the digital footprint are the most satisfied and the most engaged. And the question is, how do you get them through that gulf? How do you get them from one end to the other? Because those who've not been as digitally savvy and not adopted, they're going to. And our teams can be part of that process. Part of the physical channel is to help educate them, help get them through that gulf. Think of sort of the genius kind of approach to clients, how much do you get them there. I think the adoption, people are testing. You clearly see that. I mean we clearly see in our mobile activity that people are testing. So they're doing a deposit for the first time. They're checking the balance for the first time. They're starting that process. Will some come back to the physical environment? Absolutely. Will they, though, become more of an omnichannel user? I think, absolutely. So there's some element that's permanent. There's some element that's more transitional. But regardless, the slope has changed and the ability and the desire to have multichannel experiences with the same foundational element is there. And our whole approach of this T3 concept of touch and technology equal trust, the timing is just perfect because people actually want to have help getting through that gulf. They want to have help getting to that transition, and we want to provide as much of the touch element of that as [Audio Gap] decision on those investments right now.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#16

Thank you for that. So I wanted to switch topics a little bit. I think we were discussing in the pre-call that one of the big themes emerging from this conference is, a, the strength of the U.S. consumer, really the resilience of U.S. consumer and also the evolution of consumer lending products. To that end, I wanted to ask you about LightStream. And if you could give us an update on the efforts to build this out as a full-scale national digital consumer bank.

William Rogers

executive
#17

Yes. And your point -- your question sort of is exactly why LightStream exists because we wanted to do some experimentation. We wanted to be where our clients are making their decisions. We wanted to be at that forefront. We wanted to have another portal for acquiring new clients and not just making consumer loans, but acquiring clients. And so multipronged strategy on LightStream, one is that -- one we don't talk about as much is that's the experimentation with a modern deposit platform. So think about sort of on-the-edge technology where we've got this core deposit platform, we're in the middle of a merger, it's sort of hard to touch and change and have a lot of agility with that when you're in middle of the merger and even at other times. So we created with LightStream this experimentation around a really modern deposit platform, which has a lot of agility. We can try new things. We can experiment. We can put -- and none of that's impacted by the conversion. So everything we're doing with LightStream, we can do. We don't have to touch the core, and we can continue to experiment with that. And then the other component is we have this great lending platform. We have incredible client feedback, really, really high satisfaction. It works very effectively. It works very efficiently. Branding is really strong. And what we want to add is the deposit component to that and not to create more deposits. We don't need high-priced deposits. I mean that's not the goal. The goal is to create relationships. Can we create more fulsome relationships? We'll do some experimentation with subscription models. We'll do some experimentation with what do clients really want from a deposit product. How do we provide really, really strong advice? How do we give them the right prompts about what's going on with their account? So there's lots of opportunity to create new relationships and to do some experimentation around not only the core, but also how we add to our fulsome relationship strategy.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#18

So you talked about the highly rated consumer lending practice within LightStream. Interestingly, a lot of bank executives are getting questions about traditional payments companies that are going into point-of-sale finance, such as Apple Pay and PayPal. And you've had JPMorgan and Citi both talk about turning some of the credit card balances into that, a similar buy-now-pay-later loan. How does like -- how could LightStream fit into this ecosystem?

William Rogers

executive
#19

Well, I think there are a couple of different points to your question. The first is all predicated on where the clients make decisions. And that's where you want to be. I mean it used to be that everything had to come through the banking system, right? So we were at a point where you had to come to the banking system. That doesn't exist today. So the bank's where the client makes the decision. So we have a lot of businesses that are at point of sale. We have a lot of partnerships with entities that are at a point of sale. We were sort of, I think, one of the really early adopters to say, let's be where they make the decision. And let's be at the front door. Let's not be at the back door or let's not be in the middle because clients have choices. So the whole concept of being at the forefront, I think, we were leaders in, and we expect to be leaders in. And LightStream is another point in that. Whether it's a buy-now-pay-later product or not, I don't know. We'll do some experimentation around that. But we have a lot of other businesses that are at that point of sale. Think about Sheffield, think about some of the partnerships we have with other companies. So that's a concept that's not new to us and I think really, really relevant in terms of where and how client makes decisions and where the financial institutions fit in that.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#20

On the deposit side, one of your peers talked about the -- their Net Promoter Score in expansion markets was much higher than the Net Promoter Score in their legacy markets within the branch. And the question really here is, as you envision what the deposit product looks like under the LightStream banner, how does that differ with the traditional Truist deposit offering?

William Rogers

executive
#21

Yes, it's a great question. And our Net Promoter Scores at LightStream are really, really high. It's a lending product only now, but we think we can translate some of that into the core LightStream consumer. But our Net Promoter Scores at traditional Truist are also very high. So we don't view that as just a dramatic difference in one versus the other. And so the opportunity there is to create a new experience. As I said before, we're going to use LightStream in a way to experiment more, experiment faster, and there'll be things that we learn from that, that we'll want to adopt and adapt and build into the overall core Truist piece. There may be things that we're going to learn. So gosh, that didn't make a lot of sense. Maybe we'll try something else. Let's see what clients want, how they want to interact with us. As I mentioned earlier, we'll experiment with subscription. We'll experiment with how do we partner with some of the existing partnerships and point-of-sale businesses that we have. Can they also be part of this deposit strategy? So it's a really interesting place with a lot of positive momentum, a lot of really good brand equity from our clients that we think we're going to have a really interesting opportunity to be on the forefront of trying things in the deposit formation. And as I said before, more in the client acquisition formation.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#22

Yes. So Bill, you talked about other point-of-sale consumer products. And during the third quarter call, the growth in LightStream, Sheffield, recreational vehicle lending, [indiscernible] all very good momentum. How does that [ fit ] with the higher unemployment rate? In other words, talk a little bit about what those trends tell you about the resilience of the consumer and your footprint.

William Rogers

executive
#23

Yes. The consumer has been amazingly resilient. So we see some of the stimulus check money still sits in the bank in terms of deposits. So their resiliency and their capacity to save and to be set for the next stage. And then you see just it's alternatives. So for example, people aren't going on vacation as much. They may not be going on the cruise, and their disposable income is shifting into things like recreational. So gosh, maybe I'll use that, and I'll buy a Jet Ski or maybe I'll do an RTV -- ATV. So it's just -- it's a shift. It's not so much that one is new and it's dramatically different, but it's a shift. The net shift, in fairness, might be negative, but it's positive to us because it's going into the areas in which we've invested.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#24

Clearly, the dynamics are a little bit different there. As you think about talking to your clients, what do they need to see in the outlook shift to go from defense, hoarding liquidity, trading costs to [indiscernible] and just having some clarity on the election outcome health? Or is it really just the outlook on the pandemic?

William Rogers

executive
#25

I think everything that goes in the category of certainty is what creates more confidence. So the election was one, so now we've got more certainty in that. Pandemic is one. The last few days, we're creating some more certainty around that. We -- interestingly enough, we were just with a lot of clients. And one of the advantages of the pandemic is we can visit with a lot of clients virtually. And we did a little short survey on their optimism and their desire and willingness to invest. And it was really fascinating because most were leaning in. Most said, I do have an opportunity to invest. I do have an opportunity to expand. I do have an opportunity to acquire. I'm generally optimistic. My business is running, exceeded my expectations of where I'd be. Some -- auto and some others are probably well ahead of where they thought they might be. But they were leaning in the optimistic [ capital ]. I think there's sort of one binary impetus that this decision is this and they're ready to go. But I think it's a stack of things that just creates more uncertainty on overall foundation of optimism and capacity [Audio Gap] wasn't created by some big event. So it wasn't like there was significant leverage or a real estate event or a mortgage event. This pandemic was completely different. So the underpinning of the economy, the foundational elements were all strong to start with. And so it wasn't like we have got to go rebuild something. We just have to get it -- get that momentum back. And I think our clients and our markets are leaning on the optimism side. That doesn't mean next month, there's going to be a run. But I think it does mean that we're building capacity and building momentum to be more positive about things like loan growth and revolver utilization, those type of things, long term.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#26

So to your point about the foundation being strong pre-pandemic, I think Kelly in recent public appearances noted that there were no economic bubbles coming after this downturn. Interestingly, a lot of investors had talked about the presence of nonbank lenders and how they actively competed with banks for the on-balance sheet product. Given that the Fed has signaled that they'll be accommodative for as long as it takes, does that preclude a shakeout of nonbank lenders? In other words, as we think about the industry as GDP plus and a recovery, is it going to be tough to take back market share from nonbank financing?

William Rogers

executive
#27

I think the best way to think about it is nonbank lenders are here to stay, and our job is to be competitive. So if there's a shakeout or not a shakeout, I don't think sitting on the sidelines and waiting for someone else to experience some sort of demise is a really good strategy. So we're leaning in, and the goal is to be competitive. And if the nonbank lender has found an outlet or a portal or relevance that's important to clients, then we need to have that as well. And we need to have the agility and the focus on being in front and being the relevant one to our clients. And that's the strategy. You do see some shakeout from other reasons. I mean, I think the pandemic has caused some nontraditional and traditional, in fairness, to experience a lot of uncertainty and strategic imbalance. Will lower rates keep more viable? Maybe that's the case. But our approach is -- our job is to be relevant to clients and to be at the forefront and to be at the place where they make decisions and to be competitive with banks and nonbanks.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#28

Bill, I thought you painted a good picture of what the lending outlook looks like. As we look forward, and of course, excluding purchase accounting and PPP noise, how close are we at -- to the bottom of net interest income at Truist?

William Rogers

executive
#29

Well, if we talk about sort of core NIM, so maybe sort of start there, I mean, I think we're sort of nearing the bottom. I mean, we have a lot of counterbalancing factors, things that we're doing. We just talked about it, building our consumer portfolio and things that are accretive to our NIM. So we're putting our shoulder against a variety of things. So we're probably at the -- somewhere on the bottom against core NIM. And then NII is really predicated on everything we just talked about. So we've got to really see -- we've got to see growth, and we have things that we think we can lean into that can grow. We talked -- just talked about a lot of them. We need to see sort of the core commercial part of our business grow. I don't think we've ever been better positioned to take advantage of that, the investments we've been making in aligning our strategy around industry specialty, introducing our clients all of our capabilities. So their desire to want to do business with us, our ability to be more relevant to them is increasing exponentially. So I think in terms of market share and market relevance against that growth backdrop, I think Truist is just incredibly well positioned.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#30

Bill, I wanted to switch topics here for a second. Feedback from investors indicate that some of the expense commentary from the third quarter call drove the stock's tough reaction to otherwise pretty solid results. So I just wanted to spend a little of your time here. How do you see core expense growth going forward in the wake of continued investments? And as the market progresses, is there a chance that core expense growth could slow? And the reason I ask the question this way is because I think the investor community is giving you full credit that you'll be able to take out the $1.6 billion. But I think what's surprising them is [Audio Gap] taking that out is a little bit higher than expected.

William Rogers

executive
#31

Yes. I mean I think [Audio Gap] several elements in that question. And our desire to clarify it -- or maybe we made it more confusing. But I think there's -- there are a couple of elements. So let me try to segregate them, if I could. So first, as it relates to the $1.6 billion, I mean we're just extremely confident in our ability to achieve the $1.6 billion. There'll be puts and takes. There are other things -- there are things that are ahead of where we thought we were, think about negotiation with vendors, think about physical locations. Think about those type things, we're probably ahead. Other things are slower. So there are always going to be some puts and takes. But our ability and capacity doesn't -- to achieve the $1.6 billion, we just are extremely confident. Month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter, that's going to have some variations depending on all those things, but getting [Audio Gap] getting to the finish line, we feel great about. The base that you reflect on, I mean, it did change a bit. And COVID was the impetus behind some of those changes. So think about the investments we made in teammates and the investments we made in our communities. I'm not second guessing that at all. I mean we built that base for the right reasons. We were reacting to the right things. That will manifest itself in things that we can't measure today like lower turnover, higher teammate engagement, really great response from our communities. So they knew that we were there when they needed us. So I think that base did increase, but that's -- I'm really pleased with those investments, and they will really have a good long-term return. What's left of that? We don't know yet. So are there going to be additional investments that we have to make relative to COVID? Are there additional things that we can anticipate right now? We're all in a really good state of euphoria, and it's really [Audio Gap] about the vaccine. But how that's implemented, over what time and how that gets distributed are all questions yet to be answered. So that base could change from all of that, and that just is the reality. That's just where we sit. And then related to the additional investments we have, so we're going to achieve the $1.6 billion. We're going to have some base increase. We may have some other COVID costs. I don't know what they might be. But we also have these incredible opportunities to invest. And we've talked about a lot of these. And the return on investment today [Audio Gap] as an example, has never been higher, never been higher, and we're doing it with the most amount of information and relevance to what clients think. And then we've got businesses that are doing [Audio Gap] well run, we really feel good about them. They're running at really good efficiency ratios and think about insurance, think about our investment banking business, thinking about some of our wealth businesses, and we're not going to pass opportunities to invest in those. So there are a lot of different factors in your question. But the key takeaway, $1.6 billion, absolutely, we're committed, no hesitation, no blinking. Change in base, that just is a factor of environmentally where we sit, and we'll accommodate those. And then selective investments above that $1.6 billion, if we achieve, that are in things that are going to have really, really high, both short-term and certainly long-term, shareholder value return.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#32

And maybe if I could ask about a third leg, which are the merger-related costs. You noted that, that could exceed the initial estimate of $2 billion in '21. And the question really here is, at what point in a conversion do these costs become de minimis? And I ask that question because investors are pushing back at me saying, the longer they're in the expense base, the less I'll be willing to take that out, if the cost goes [indiscernible].

William Rogers

executive
#33

Yes, I get that. And that's a totally legitimate question, and people want to understand that. And remember, when we established the $2 billion, we hadn't gone through the process yet. So we had to select -- we didn't know best-of-breed. We didn't know the selection. So some of the increase over the $2 billion are selections that we're making to invest in best-of-breed. And yes, they're a little more expensive. But again, the long-term payback for that and the accelerant when we get through the merger, we think, is just an easy trade-off and an easy decision to make. Because of some of the investments we've made, to the response, things like PPP and other things, we did push out the core conversion until the early part of '22. And remember, a lot of the big expenses on the end of that come from things like decommissioning data centers and those type of things. So they really do have a time component to them that you actually have to have the conversion done, you actually have to have migrated to a different data center before you [Audio Gap] so the confidence is there. But the time lines are just a real line of demarcation of how we get there.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#34

Thank you for that. And before I switch to the next topic, I do want to just remind investors that if you have any questions for Bill, please feel free to key in those questions in the webcast portal app that you have in front of you. Bill, let's talk a little bit about how fee income is going. I think that's been a bright spot for the industry. Could you give us a sense about how much of the recovery rate is accelerating in terms of the categories that were really impacted by COVID? And perhaps give us an update on how insurance and mortgage are doing.

William Rogers

executive
#35

Yes. And you're right to ask them differently because they're impacted differently. So start with insurance, so it doesn't have sort of a direct correlation. I think it has sort of a low correlation to some of the bank fees. And that business is going really well. You saw some of the sort of above performance there, relative performance. You -- our ability to attract new businesses there is really strong. And it really is just getting the early impacts from our integrated relationship management strategy. So those long sales cycles and long introductions to the -- think about the existing heritage SunTrust client base to being introduced to the insurance capabilities and those type of things. So I think there's all good reasons to feel really optimistic about the industry dynamics and the Truist-specific dynamics related to the growth in insurance. As it relates to the other large categories, investment banking, same kind of principles. The ability long term to exponentially increase the denominator of clients and opportunities for the investment banking business with our core community commercial bank is just fantastic and really good momentum there. So I think quarter-to-quarter, that will have probably a little more fluctuation just because it has some market dependencies and those type of things. But feel really good about the growth there. Wealth is starting to recover. We're starting to see market recovery. That has an impact. So those things are starting to reverse. Again, net new there is really strong, and that's really primarily what we look at. And then so the other businesses that you talked about, things like the service fees and those type of things are starting to recover. Credit card and debit card and all those type of fees start to recover as we start to -- post-pandemic shift.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#36

Got it. Pivoting to another topic, this question is a lot -- asked a lot of bank management teams in that, investors are wondering whether the government programs redefine what peak net charge-offs are in the cycle versus delaying them. And the responses we've been getting so far from management teams during this conference is that it might be a little bit more of the former because some of the updates we're getting on potential 2021 net charge-off peaks are lower than I think investors feared. So I guess I'll ask you for your views here. Do you think that the peak in charge-offs will be a lot less worse than what we have seen in the previous 3 recessions?

William Rogers

executive
#37

I do think that, but we also just have to put the caveat. There's still a lot of unknowns. I think we're all sort of caught up, and we've got a 1 day for you. So we do have to get caught up, but that there's still a lot of unknowns and things that we have to see. But back to your earlier question, the strength of the consumer has really, really done well. Those who -- both on the consumer side and the commercial side that have come off some of the forbearance, their ability to be current and be in the right stage with us is in the mid and high 90s. So I mean we're seeing that show up, and that would be a dramatically different outcome if we foresaw charge-offs at an increasing rate. But we also have classifieds and things that have a cycle, and they have to run themselves through. So I think I would generally agree with your proposition and what others have speculated. I think the peaks will be very different. There'll be less peak and over more time, but there are still unknowns.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#38

So maybe one more question for me before I turn to the question queue from the audience. You talked about a 20% ROTCE under a normalized environment still being visible. How integral is a normalization of rates in achieving that 20%?

William Rogers

executive
#39

Yes. I mean we did a chart that had sort of a cycle. And I think in terms of absolutes and relatives, so when we established the merger, we did it and talked about absolutes. But we also said relatives, we're going to have the relative low efficiency ratio, relative high ROTCE. And that's absolutely happened. So all the benefits of the merger we're seeing in the relative. The point of the chart in the previous slides was to really show how do you get to absolute? How do you get back to absolute? And it's a combination of some type of NIM normalization. It's a combination of some type of capital normalization, sort of where we would be. Today, we're continuing to accrete capital. We won't want to do that forever. So it's all of those things that come into the factor. All the things we've talked about, revenue synergies, how do we build that in, when do they start showing up and how. So what the intent was to show, and I think a very conservative way, is relative is really strong, and we've got a really good path to absolute. And when we hit absolute, absolute will be top performing as well.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#40

Great. Thank you, Bill, for that. And just turning over to audience questions. The first one is, Bill, could you help size what core expense growth could look like over the next few years, excluding accelerated investments?

William Rogers

executive
#41

Yes. I think back to the earlier question and trying to segregate that part, the $1.6 billion we know, we're going to -- that's going to be embedded as part of that. There are still a lot of unknowns as to expense growth. And they're COVID-related, inflation, all those things that come into there. So I don't think it's a really good time to say, here's exactly what the core expense number is going to be because you've got some of these unknown factors. But the known factors, the things that we can manage and can control, we are absolutely, unequivocally on track and committed to and feel great about. And if there are alternative investments, we'll be very clear about those. And we'll be very clear about the payback on those and what those means in terms of an improving efficiency ratio.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#42

And we have another question. When you reach the end of your merger savings checklist, will annual positive operating leverage be a core objective? And how will you manage that -- how will you manage to that objective, i.e., under what circumstances would you allow operating leverage to go negative?

William Rogers

executive
#43

Yes. I think it's a great question. So I would say -- answer it this way. One is we're committed -- and the benefits of this merger is we'll be one of the most efficient, so let's sort of start there, but efficiency with growth. And so that growth comes from top line. It comes from efficiencies in the bottom line. So we'll be one of the most efficient companies, and we'll have growth. And quarter-to-quarter, year-to-year, which of those levers are pulling to achieve the growth is going to depend on the environments you're in and the opportunities that you have in front of us. But the net is very efficient company that's got above industry growth characteristics.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#44

I see. And one more question from the audience. It'll be very interesting to see how you answer this question.

William Rogers

executive
#45

Great.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#46

If Truist believes so much in the future model in banking it's developing, why not invest more [Audio Gap] or takeovers?

William Rogers

executive
#47

Let's get this one done. So I think we decided to catapult in this merger of equals rather than trying to build this one small merger at a time with all the complications that come along with that. I mean, Kelly and I made, with the support of our boards, I mean, the shareholders, this strategic decision is let's actually leapfrog all of that. Let's leapfrog multi-years of smaller acquisitions to try to create the scale. Let's actually do it at one time. Let's create the maximum advantage from that. And then that's a platform by which we can do lots of different things. They may be bolt-on acquisitions we won't think as traditionally. Do you have to buy a bank? We've had all these questions today, which have been fantastic about how do we expand our businesses that maybe don't require physical footprint, that require other investments. We have lots of businesses that are already in a lot of distinct markets. How do we accentuate them? How do we grow them? So I think the answer is acquiring a lot of net new clients, expanding the businesses that we have. A lot of that will be inorganic, and a lot of that will be organic. And we'll try to hit the right combination of those, further maximizing our ability to grow and have exceptional shareholder return.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#48

Bill, I think that's a great place to conclude. Thank you so much for joining us here, and we really appreciate it.

William Rogers

executive
#49

Thank you. Thanks for your time. And as we said earlier, what a great 2 days to have a conference. Congratulations.

L. Erika Penala

analyst
#50

Can't repeat that probably. Have a good one.

William Rogers

executive
#51

All right. Thanks.

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