Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 6, 2024

New York Stock Exchange US Industrials Ground Transportation conference_presentation 40 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Brian Nowak

analyst
#1

All right. Good afternoon, everyone. We are thrilled to have our next conversation with Dara from Uber. Before we get started, Dara, I have to read the important disclosures, including all the personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures all appear on the Morgan Stanley public website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. They're also available at the registration desk. Some of the statements made today by Uber may be considered forward-looking. These statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Any forward-looking statements made today by the company are based on assumptions as of today, and Uber undertakes no obligation to update them. Please refer to Uber's Form 10-K for a discussion of the risk factors that may impact actual results. Welcome back.

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#2

Good to be here.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#3

And it's great to see you, as always.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#4

So maybe let's talk about prioritization and how it's changed. I think it's a fascinating case study and journey of what's happened at Uber. So maybe talk to us about your priorities, the first 4 to 5 years with the company. And now that we've sort of gone through 2 Analyst Days and sort of really set up what seems to be a great growth and cash flow profile, how are you spending your time in prioritization now versus 3 years ago?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#5

Yes, absolutely. So if you look at the life stage journeys of Uber, obviously, I came in at a very difficult time as it related to Uber leadership. And my priorities in those early days were to make sure we set the Uber culture kind of in the right way, where our success was shared, and we had to grow in a way that was responsible for all stakeholders. So that was a big one. Second for us was the governance of the company, the Board of Directors, bringing in a Chairman, who is an independent Chairman, Ron Sugar. And then third was to set the company up for an IPO, right? It was -- we were a company. We needed the capital. We knew we wanted to be a public company. And we were very far from having the capability set or the controls to being a public company. So we got a bunch of that stuff done. I'm glad it's behind us because it's not my favorite activity in the world, but it certainly was necessary. Post-IPO, obviously, COVID came, which was an entirely unexpected circumstance. And really, COVID forced us to reexamine the portfolio of the company and really reshape the portfolio to the core of our building, innovating on this managed global marketplace in terms of managed supply and managed demand, and really focusing on Mobility and Delivery and then adjacencies they're in, and getting out of some of the other businesses that our autonomous business, bikes and scooters, et cetera, that were more, call it, balance sheet heavy. So it's reformulating the business, and then really thinking about the driver as, first, priority for the company, and then focusing on the core economics of the business. Coming out of COVID, we were very disciplined in terms of costs and really driving the P&L, et cetera. So there's a lot of focus on looking at our portfolio of products, looking at our geographic portfolio in terms of both Mobility and Delivery, determining what are the products that are going to have significant margins going forward, what are the countries where we know we can win, where we can eventually get to be the #1 player, and again, getting out of products and/or countries that weren't going to be long-term accretive. Now I think the focus is much more, for me, in terms of product, innovation and growth, right? We built out a portfolio of Mobility bets that are now -- it's about $11 billion in size. It's a reserve Uber for Business, high-capacity vehicles, shared vehicles, taxi, et cetera. It's a big portfolio of products that really didn't exist 4 years ago within the Uber portfolio, growing at 80% on a year-on-year basis. And then on the Delivery side, we've got grocery, we've got advertising, we've got direct, $7 billion run rate, growing 40-plus percent. So for me now the focus is much more on making sure that those growth bets get to scale. The grocery business TAM is bigger than the online food delivery TAM. So these are huge, huge markets out there. And spending much more time with our technical teams, our product teams, we now have very strong economics in the business. I have a new CFO, who is terrific. At one point, hopefully, he'll be at one of these events. So I think that the business -- the governance is in a good place. The culture is in a good place. The -- how we look at financials and kind of getting a fair return on equity on the products that we invest in, that's all become muscle. And now I can focus more on driving innovation, driving top line and spending more time with our technical and product teams.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#6

Great. That's a good...

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#7

It's a lot more fun.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#8

Yes, it's a good table setting to sort of set us up for the discussion. So I think it's also interesting to think about the -- over the course of the years, you've -- we've proved it's a quite cash flow-generative business. We've shown a lot of growth. You talked about the New Mobility versus the core. When you have your investor discussions now with investors that don't yet own the stock or don't own enough of the stock as they should, what do you think is sort of the most consistent misunderstood or consistent hesitation from those investors at this point?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#9

I think the most significant one is it's just a part of the platform for us. We always say we want to have best-in-breed verticals. And if the Uber Mobility business was a stand-alone, right, it will be a dynamite. It is clearly the mobility leader in the world, highest growth, highest margin, highest category position. And on Delivery, I think DoorDash did $17.6 billion in bookings. We did $17 billion in the last quarter. So one of the leaders, by far the most geographically diverse, with a proven ability to grow anywhere and everywhere in the world. So stand-alone, these are relatively easy to understand because, for investors, there's another player that they can look at. And they can compare our metrics to their metrics, and it's math and some opinion and then some predictions of what the future is. We are the only player that is a multiproduct company. And as a result, there's no model for platform. Everything that we're building is new. It's actually harder for us because sometimes copying is easy, right? But with platform, everything that we're building, essentially, we have to -- it's an idea that someone has, you test it out, you see if it has promise and then you start working on it. And the other difficult factor in terms of a platform is anything that you're doing to optimize the platform can take away from the stand-alone, right? It's -- these are -- our phones are pretty small. There are only so many surfaces that we can surface to the user. And every pixel, for example, on the Uber Mobility app that is promoting delivery is taking away from Mobility. It may take away advertising dollars. It may take away a safety message that we think is important. It may take away an upsell into reserve, for example. So there's, one, no one's doing it. And two, there's no such thing as a free lunch. So you have to go out and find what's the right time for me to upsell you reserve. What's the right time for me, let's say, you're going home to upsell you into why don't you order dinner on Uber Eats? Maybe on a weekend, on a Saturday morning, we'll promote grocery to you. All of these targeting mechanisms are models that kind of we're creating out of scratch and are very sophisticated models that no one else really has built. The results that we see on the platform are, we think, pretty spectacular, right? About 30% of Delivery new customers come from Mobility at 50% of the cost. If we wanted to get to kind of the same cost as third parties, we could actually drive that up. But we're taking incremental growth, and we're taking profits. 20% of Mobility's first trips are coming from Delivery. When you get customers to use the product, to use more than 1 product within the platform, multi-product users are now about 1/3 of our users, it's up from 20% a couple of years ago. So we've been driving consistently those multi-platform -- that multi-platform percentage up, and they spend 3.4x more. Then we upsell to our members. Members spend 3.4x more. So just mathematically, what the asset that we built in terms of the platform is it can now court more customers more cheaply than competitors, it has more shots on goals in order to drive someone to be multi-platform. And then you've got membership, which is a superior membership offering than anyone else because most of the membership of other players, they offer Delivery benefits. We offer Delivery benefits and Mobility benefits. It's kind of the Netflix model. The more content you have, the better your subscription. Our subscription has more content than anyone else's. So you've got a customer acquisition cost advantage, numerical advantage, and then you've got an LTV advantage as well. And so there's no model around that. We're the only company that does it. And like the little example that I'll give you is of a monoline player versus a multiline player. About 14% of our first trip of our Delivery users use Grocery, right? So we're trying to upsell them to Grocery. When they use Grocery, they tend to spend 3x more than just an online food player. So that's -- that is a no-regrets move. DoorDash, who's a great competitor in the U.S. For DoorDash, that number is 20%, right? So they are ahead of us as it relates to that metric. But when you compare that to the 33% we have for multiproduct, we just have more shots on goal. We have more opportunities to offer to you that structurally allows us to succeed more of the time and get a higher percentage of your dollars coming out of your pocket. So those advantages accrue over a period of time. They compound on top of each other, and I think you're seeing that compounding now in terms of our growth rate, our margins versus competitors as well. And then the last thing that I will tell you is that this is -- it's a technical platform that is quite broad. It's very capable. We have single sign-on. We have a single fraud stack. We have a single payment stack, all of a single customer service stack, et cetera. So not only are we the biggest in terms of multiple geographies, but being able to build a single mapping platform that powers both Mobile and Delivery, that allows us to either track, I think, stronger engineering talent or it allows us to build more sophisticated capability at either the same or lower cost than our competitors. And these capabilities, for example, in our payment stack we've built the capability to be able to move payments amount quite flexibly from one provider to another provider. These are big platforms. It takes a huge amount of effort. That ability to move volumes around has saved us hundreds of millions of dollars in terms of going to lower-cost payment methodologies or being able to negotiate with providers and say, "We're one of the fastest-growing, large transactional companies in the world. If you want my volume, then I want them priced fair." So these are -- that's a platform benefit that I think, again, it's a little bit invisible to the external customer. But I think the technical capabilities that we're able to build a scale are second to none.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#10

Got it. Okay. Well, maybe we -- let's hone in a little bit on the core Rides business. One of the investor discussions and debates that we still have is about the durability of multiyear rides growth, and specifically, whether or not you can drive broader adoption across more people. I mean, I use Uber once a day. I'm sure there's a lot of power users in this demographic that use Uber a lot. At the Analyst Day, you talked about how 50% of the MAPCs are using it once or twice a month. So walk us through sort of the strategic pipeline to drive more frequency and engagement with those users who are only using it once a month, and maybe they do have lower-income demographics, et cetera.

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#11

Yes. So I think a couple of factors there. One is that the way to increase frequency for every single user out there, whether either once or twice a month, or thank you for using us every single day, is to keep improving the core product, right, which is make sure that ETAs come down, make sure that surge is coming down, make sure that cancellations are coming down, driver-led cancellations. All of those metrics for us are generally moving in the right direction. So you can never lose sight of just build a better product over a long period of time and you kind of knock on that drum and good things come to you, whether it's a single product user or a multiproduct user. The second area that we look at is driving more occasions. So for example, what we're seeing with our Reserve product. Reserve is, originally, it was built really for the airport use case. 15% of our gross bookings come from travel use cases. And now about 20% of our airport pickups are from Reserve, which is -- it's going great. We're very, very happy with the product. It turns out now 40% of Reserve use cases have nothing to do with travel, okay? They're people going out to dinner. I talked to people at this conference, they -- you may reserve an Uber to take you to places to make sure that reliability is up. And of that 40% Reserve use case, a majority of them in the U.S. is actually in the suburbs. So that's an example where, in the suburbs where we don't have the liquidity to be reliable either in terms of time or in price, people are now kind of hacking the Reserve product, which was supposed to be for travel, to drive reliability and price certainty and create liquidity in the market. And if we create more liquidity in a suburb, that can actually accrue to the whole business as well. So the new use cases in terms of Reserve, lower price points in terms of hike and in terms of share, for example, users who use UberX Share have 2.5x the frequency of users who use X. So it does become that everyday use case that many of these people need because it's cheaper. So new occasions, price, and then, last and certainly not least for us, membership. Trying to get these -- if we push these people into membership or upsell membership, the frequency, both on Mobility and Delivery, increases pretty fundamentally.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#12

Let's talk membership then. 30% of total bookings come from Uber One members. We think that skews more so towards Delivery. You talked about 45% of Delivery gross bookings coming from members. I guess, 2 questions on Uber One from here. One, sort of talk to us about the user growth drivers you're focused on to like drive that penetration on absolute number up higher. And then two, what do you have to do to sort of increase the utility that Uber One members get from rides?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#13

Yes, absolutely. So generally, what we -- the driver, in terms of number of members, is just upselling to membership from our own services, right? So if you're not a member and you order food, remind you that you could have saved $7 on this order, pay $9.99 a month and 1 more order will kind of get you to be profitable. So we have significant every single time you buy something on Uber, that's an opportunity for us to upsell you into membership in a very, very compelling way. That's one. Second for us is free trials. So free trials for us, to some extent, is advertising for membership, and we can -- the percentage of our users that we offer free trials for the targeting of those free trials, whether it's a 1-month, 2-month, 3-month free trial, all of that essentially can drive, can accelerate new member count or not, depending on what we want to do. And then the third for us is partnerships with third parties. So we have a terrific partnership, for example, with an Amex that provides very broad benefits to our product. But there are other players, a Disney, et cetera, that we have essentially created additional membership benefits or Uber One on benefits for. And that brings a very highly incremental kind of new members, so to speak. Because ultimately, the value of membership is about the incrementality of the use, how much of that 3.4x is incremental. So -- and we're able to tune those three, service upsells, free trials and then, of course, the relationships that we have with third parties in a pretty programmatic way for us. And then there's also geographic expansion. We're now in 19 countries. We'll continue -- we don't quite have the full footprint. We're in over 70 countries as a company. So we'll continue to increase the footprint of membership as well. In terms of driving kind of membership utility, you're absolutely right, which is the -- we want to drive more utilization on the -- on our Mobility side. We are about 45% of gross bookings, Delivery gross bookings come from members that will go over 50%. We're quite confident of the path there. On the Mobility side, there are a couple of programs -- there are a bunch of programs, but a couple that I'll highlight is the base benefit of 6% cash back, right? And we're seeing cash back versus discounts tends to drive more incrementality on Mobility. We started with a discount. We saw the incrementality wasn't that high. Cash back has a higher incrementality. Then we're driving programs like, for example, with Uber for Business. We will, for an Uber for Business, anyone who uses a member who uses Uber for Business, you can actually apply that 6% cash back for your personal use and about 1/4 of that cash back is actually used for Delivery. So not only does it drive more volume, but it actually drives more volume to the platform as a whole. This is an age-old product that the Marriotts of the world, the airlines of the world have used. There's no reason why it's not going to work for Uber as well. We're using accelerators. So for example, instead of 6% cash back, you may get 10% cash back to try a Reserve product. That drives higher Reserve usage, and it's another benefit that we're bringing into Mobility for a high-margin product. We'll use Quest to 3 trips this week, and you'll get, again, an accelerator in membership as well. So all of those are about targeting, targeting specific products, targeting specific use cases. And then on top of that, we are going to look to build out more experiential membership benefits for Mobility, jump the line in an airport, get upgraded to a comfort for free, get upgraded to green for free, et cetera. Those are features that are -- features that are in past, so to speak. And hopefully, are going to be launched sometime this year.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#14

I can't wait for this launch. It's a lottery.

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#15

Yes, in terms of line.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#16

Exactly, my comfort. Let's talk about the New Mobility versus the "core". You talked about it earlier a little bit, but New Mobility growing 80% plus. We think it's sort of a mid-teens-ish percent of overall Mobility bookings, but at a lower margin. So maybe talk to us just about sort of the philosophy of how you're managing the profitability of the total Rides business as you have sort of these 2 pools with the core business versus New Mobility and the growth versus profitability trade-off?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#17

Well, I think, listen, that's what we're paid to do. Like any company is always managing growth versus profitability. For folks who don't have the background, our New Mobility products now, it's about an $11 billion portfolio, growing at 80% on a year-on-year basis. So we're thrilled about the progress there. And within New Mobility, there are products with different margins, right? Reserve actually has a higher margin than our, call it, the core. Uber for Business has a higher margin because we have a much higher mix of premium products, about 40% premium products than the baseline business. That's offset by taxi or hailables 2-wheelers or 3-wheelers or UberX share. So there's actually a portfolio within the portfolio. But on average, you're absolutely right, which is the New Mobility products have a lower margin than the baseline business. And the 2 activity sets that we're focused on is, we want the new Mobility margins on a stand-alone basis to improve over a period of time. So there's -- you lean into a product, you find product market fit, you drive liquidity and sometimes you have to invest to drive liquidity in a product. Once you get that liquidity and product market fit, you actually want the margins of that product to increase. And we're quite confident, for example, that our taxi product is going to be a very profitable product at maturity. We've seen it with some of our competition, and we see that we have a road map to increase margins as well. And then for us, it's a capital allocation framework. And honestly, it's a capital allocation framework between Mobility and Delivery. Mobility business is a bit more profitable than Delivery. There's a capital allocation framework in terms of geographies. There are certain geographies where we may be pushing for greater category position or we want higher penetration of our target audience that may have lower margins. And then there's product. And we lean into our New Mobility and our Delivery kind of grocery products pretty aggressively as long as margins in those products continue to improve. And it's a bit of an art and a science in terms of how much you lean into new products. But we want to lean into new products kind of as much as we can, so to speak. That said, we know that investors expect of us, a predictable framework that delivers mid-teens to high teens growth on the top line and then growth in -- from the 30% to 40% on the bottom line. We've got enough tools, so to speak, to be able to push growth aggressively, but then deliver the bottom line that we expect and investors expect of us.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#18

Great. At the recent Analyst Day, there were a couple of slides that sort of talked -- broke the business down by country or by region. There was 1 that sort of had -- it showed 3 of your top 10 countries across both Mobility and Delivery are still not profitable. So maybe talk to us about what's holding back profitability in those large markets? And how do you think about hurdles to make those profitable over the year.

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#19

I've heard that with the investor's favorite slide. So go figure. So it's a combination of, I'd say, the maturity of the market, competitive position in the market and then especially product mix. So there are a couple of markets on Delivery, where the grocery business is actually quite large compared to the online food delivery business. We're still investing. We're still in investment mode on the grocery business. On average, margins are negative in grocery. So in the markets where grocery has -- in some of these markets where grocery has very high penetration, the overall market can be negative. But again, as long as grocery margins move in the right direction, we think will mix into positive for those markets as well. And then there are a couple of markets where, from a competitive standpoint, we're not the #1 player yet, let's say, in Delivery. And there are 3 players who were vying for the #1 position. And the fortunate position that we're in is, because we're #1 in a bunch of markets, we have some excess margins that we can reinvest in these markets to grow at outsized rates and hopefully get to the top category position. So that, typically, is either product mix or its competitive position that we're aiming for that account for the margins. But we're quite -- this is -- it's a pretty mature model at this point. And based on various take rates and based on product mix, we're quite confident that we can get every single country that we operate in into EBITDA -- solid EBITDA positive margins.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#20

Okay. One of the costs in the U.S., I know that I keep getting wrong, we think we've gotten it wrong at least twice, I guess, 4x if we count your competitor, is insurance costs. I guess -- so maybe a couple of parts in this insurance cost. The first one is sort of as we think about '24, '25 cost of insurance in the Rides business, philosophically, how are you thinking about passing through versus absorbing? And then maybe if we just kind of analyze the rest of the OpEx and other potential sources of leverage that could offset some of those potentially higher insurance costs, I know this is hard to pick.

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#21

Yes, absolutely. So for background, for folks, insurance costs, like the CPI print on car insurance cost, was up 20% on a year-on-year basis. Our insurance costs have been up not quite as much. So we, through a multiplicity of activities, whether it's our maps avoiding unprotected left turns is just one example, we're able to optimize our insurance cost to rate increases that we think, all else being equal, are going to be better than industry because there's a lot of tech that we can bring to our marketplace in a way that other players can't. So we might incentivize actively safer drivers to go on the platform. So if we can incentivize -- there are 2 drivers that are equal in every way, 1 is -- drives a bit more slowly and is a safer driver, we will send incentives to that driver. Younger drivers tend to be less safe than older drivers, et cetera. So there's also mix that we're shifting actively within our marketplace in order to put a premium on safety. And it's a no-regrets move on the P&L, but more importantly, it's a very important move in terms of our customers. We have been passing on to users through riders the increase in insurance cost that we've seen. So essentially, it's a 100% pass-through. We don't like it, but it's fair. We provide commercial insurance for our drivers so that they don't have to pay for themselves. And we think the road forward for us is one where, on a relative basis, we're hoping that the insurance inflation comes down. The price of used cars is coming down. The price of repairs, generally, is coming down. So we're definitely moving in the right direction. We have been able to offset it through other costs, right, our margins for Mobility and Delivery. Delivery insurance is not as much of an issue for Delivery, and insurance outside the U.S. is really not an issue for Mobility. So we benefit from a geographic -- from the diversity that we have geographically. And then essentially, every other cost line, variable costs and fixed costs. If you look at payments, if you look at customer service, if you look at fraud, background checks, et cetera, we have teams that are looking to optimize those variable costs. They are responsible. They have targets. They've been able to drive to those targets for years now. And then on the fixed cost side, since Q4 of 2019, we've doubled the gross bookings of the company, and we've probably added about 10% to headcount. So we've shown that we have real discipline on the fixed cost side. So I think that -- we're hoping insurance becomes less of an issue, and we have programs against every other cost item. And hopefully, by now, we've proven to our investor base that we're a very disciplined company. And I think you see it in the culture of the business, which is innovations that save money are celebrated at the company now. Like it is -- we have a very nice balance between driving innovation around newer products, around driving growth and driving innovation around saving costs. And both of them are heroic endeavors, so to speak, for our engineers, which is great.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#22

Yes. That's great. Maybe let's talk about the U.S. delivery, and specifically the U.S. underlying restaurant delivery business. A couple of years ago, you talked about really investing more in the suburbs, improve supply in those areas. And this has actually responded. We think we had some periodical numbers for you guys on. So it looks like the U.S. business is doing quite well. As we now look into 2024, what are sort of the key drivers to continue the U.S. core Restaurant business taking share or driving the market, however you think about driving that growth?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#23

Absolutely. So just stepping back for a second. Generally, for us, we are a supply-led company, right? It's on -- in the Mobility side, it's about adding more drivers to the platform. On the Delivery side, it's more adding more restaurants to the platform. And if you look for us on a global basis, we have -- we think about 20% of the total addressable markets are restaurants in our platform. So there's a ton of growth in terms of adding restaurants. We're adding restaurants at about 10% per year. Our transaction growth is higher than that. So we want to have higher penetration into our partners, so we become a more important partner. And in the U.S., our restaurant penetration, we think, is about 30%. So a ton of headroom in terms of the U.S. And if you add grocery to that, the headroom is even greater. It is true that our restaurant penetration in urban destinations is, on average, better than a restaurant penetration in terms of suburbs. But I think we're making real headway in suburbs, both in small kind of enterprises, the neighborhood favorites, but then also in enterprise. Domino's, for example, was a very -- is a very big partner. We've onboarded all of the Domino's stores, and we're working on driving now more penetration of those Domino's stores and more performance from those stores. So we think now, in suburbs, the restaurant supply that we have is at a good place for us to get the magic of more supply, more demand, and kind of this dynamic marketplace that we have. So we still think our category position -- on a relative category position in urban, destinations is much higher than it is in suburbs. We think suburbs are a huge opportunity for us. And we feel like our restaurant supply is finally at the point where we can push in the suburbs but not buy our way into glory but kind of earn our way into glory. So more to come, but we're reasonably confident of our position here.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#24

And is the cross-platform strategies or how you're thinking about now driving that now that you have the supply? Are you trying to get more of the riders in, et cetera?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#25

So there's more of a cross this batch in suburbs between and drivers because suburbs tends to be a car space. So from that supply standpoint, we can get couriers pretty easily in suburbs. Our Mobility business isn't as strong as suburbs. So the platform benefit that we have in the center of cities is actually greater on the consumer side in cities. The platform benefit that we get on driver supply is greater in the suburbs, but it's helping the Mobility business more. So in the suburbs, the Eats business kind of is a little more on its own, so to speak. But I think the supply position is there. The Uber brand is incredibly strong. The technical platform that we have built is just a bigger-scale technical platform than anyone else. So I think their capabilities are best of breed there. So again, it's a long game. Compounding is a powerful force, and we think compounding is on our side, so to speak.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#26

Okay. One of the businesses that I think we feel comfortable from a top line perspective or compound is Grocery. But online grocery, it's a hard business. This is a low-margin offline business,that are adding more costs to you. So as you sort of think about profitability and ROIC of the Grocery investments, are there any KPIs or metrics that you analyze that you say these are going in the right direction in online grocery to see a path to it being profitable?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#27

Yes, absolutely. Now I would tell you that the most important KPIs for us on Grocery right now are still customer-led KPIs. What's the -- what percentage of our audience are we upselling into Grocery? What's the repeat rate of that customer? What's the average fill rate of a particular order? So in terms of importance, customer-facing KPIs are more important than P&L KPIs. Now all of it is important. In terms of P&L, it's really the biggest 2 items that we look at are basket size and then cost per order, right? And obviously, delivery costs a certain amount. So the larger your basket size, the greater opportunity you have for profits. And then the cost per transaction, the more to the extent you can batch, double batch, triple batch, quadruple batch, et cetera, that helps the CPT as well. On top of that, we have the advertising revenue. Advertising and -- the advertising revenue for us in Grocery is relatively nascent, which is we have just built a sponsored items product very much along the same product that Instacart has built. Instacart has built a very strong advertising product, and we're building something quite similar. And we're quite confident that advertising in Grocery is going to be actually significantly higher as a percentage of GPs than our Food business. When we put it all together, one big advantage we have on Grocery is our cost of customer acquisition is next to nothing. And we can upsell this audience. So that puts us in a position where we're quite confident that over the next 2 to 5 years, we can grow Grocery top line. But every year, we can improve on Grocery margins at the same time and get to a profitable business. Most of the profits are going to come from advertising. But the platform advantages that we have and the technical advantages that we have in terms of payment and fraud and CPT put us in a very strong position.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#28

Great. Let's talk GenAI. A year ago, it was newer discussion, to say the least. Now here we are. So maybe a 2-parter on GenAI. Number one, as you sort of -- now versus a year ago, what are areas where you're already seeing GenAI impact your business internally or externally? And then as you sort of think about '24, '25, what are the next low-hanging fruit areas for GenAI to help the business?

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#29

Yes, absolutely. If I were to make a very general characterization, these GenAI models are getting better. They're getting faster. They're getting cheaper. So there's -- we're not a maturity by a long shot. That said, the latency of these GenAI products is higher than the latency we look for other services that we build. And that kind of creates a circumstance where that latency is okay if you're replacing or augmenting human activity. Humans are slow, right? Systems are fast, humans are slow. So the first kinds of products that we see getting scale within our own portfolio are higher productivity, for example, of engineers, right? Engineers using copilot, we see incredible promise there. They're coding at higher quality, faster, perfect. On customer service, for GenAI to give our agents -- summarize the situation, give our agents recommendations so our agents can get to the outcome faster, that is happening right now. Now once the GenAI starts making recommendations, they are highly accurate. You can imagine actually replacing the agent with a GenAI agent. So I think those are the kind of sets of activities. Instead of a bunch of people making SQL queries in the business, now plain English queries, et cetera. So I'd say, we're more focused on the productivity side of the pie. There's some cool experimentation we're doing in terms of like Uber Eats and what's the best of breed own town or where can I go in San Francisco for authentic Chinese food, et cetera. That holds promise, but I think it will be less material to the P&L. I think the productivity stuff is going to be quite material to the P&L and next kind of 3- to 5-year time range.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#30

Great. All right. Dara, we're at the clock. Awesome. Thank you so much, as always. Thanks, everyone.

Dara Khosrowshahi

executive
#31

Thank you very much.

Brian Nowak

analyst
#32

Thank you.

This call discussed

For developers and AI pipelines

Programmatic access to Uber Technologies, Inc. earnings transcripts and 32,000+ others is available through the EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.