UNIQA Insurance Group AG (UQA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to the UNIQA Group Preliminary Results 2024 Conference Call. Please note, this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand you over to your host, Mr. Kurt Svoboda, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Thank you, gentlemen. It's not Kurt speaking, it's Andreas speaking. I appreciate your time, and welcome to our call on the full year results 2024, a year which was a very solid and positive one for our group. And I think a year, which represents a perfect base and launching pad for our new strategy program, Growing Impact, where we had the privilege introducing it to you by the end of the year 2024 in London and then once again in a second round by January this year here in Vienna. Starting with Slide 4, just in a nutshell the most important KPIs. Gross written premiums have been rising close to EUR 8 billion, which means a growth of more than 9%. Kurt will tackle later, but if you look on the 2 regions, we see a stable and robust growth of 5.5% in the mature market, Austria, where we're the #2 on the market followed by close to 14% growth in Central and Eastern Europe. I mentioned this because what we see that the brand and our products and our distribution channels are very stable. We have not only been able to keep the existent base of clients close to 17 million of people, but also to gaining and attracting new clients. And we have been able, both in the retail and in the corporate segment, to settle our prices. This means we have no issues that our prices, which you have been asking for our products have been under pressure. If you then look on a single market, you see that our most important market in Eastern Europe, Poland, where we are currently privileged working for more than 5 million clients, UNIQA has been growing there at a growth rate of more than 20%, I think close to 23%, at a very high and excellent technical ratio as far as the P&C combined ratio is concerned, below 90%. So this means there is a strong robustness in our 2 markets, not only as growth is concerned but also as far as the technical profitability is concerned. Having mentioned this technical profitability, you might have seen our combined ratio increased slightly by 0.3 percentage points up to 93.1%. This, of course, is heavily influenced and affected by Boris. We know that Boris was not a huge NatCat on a global perspective, but at least on European perspective and especially for our home market, it was a significant NatCat event, which influenced our combined ratio net in a negative way with more than 3 percentage points. So we have been able to digest even Boris, Kurt will explain later on. And despite all of this having, I think, a very good combined ratio net of 92.8% -- no, 93.1% and profit before tax, as you have seen, of more than EUR 440 million. Having a look also on the investment side, we'll come back to it a little bit later. We see that we have high new investment yields both in Austria, 3.4%; and international, 5.8% portfolios, pushing up the total investment yield to 2.9%. We mentioned in London and what we did once again, still being on Slide 4, how diversified we are. On the one hand, if you look to the right part of the slide, as far as the book itself is concerned, you see something like 60% of the portfolio to be concrete, 57% in Austria, 43% international. But also if you look furthermore to the right on this slide, on Slide 4, you see the diversification of the book itself. If we go down vertical in product groups, 60% is P&C, almost split half-half by CEE and Austria. Then we see Health, 19%, EUR 1.5 billion, which is, of course, 98% Austrian business where, as you know, we are #1 in the market, having a market share of 43%, 44%. And then followed by Life by something like 20% of our book, amounting up to EUR 1.6 billion. So this is the key message, diversification on the one hand; and second, and this is now also the headline on Slide 5, a very strong profit before tax showing that this group reached a size where we are able to digest such relevant NatCat as we experienced with Boris in our annual results whereas, of course, we know that this year 2024 was supported by a favorable financial result as far as our net investment income is concerned. You might have seen an increase of like EUR 150 million, up to EUR 750 million, which represents an increase of 27%, heavily supported by higher ordinary income than expected -- than planned. This again is higher ordinary income mainly and primarily driven by our participation in STRABAG, which really delivers constant profits and dividends year-by-year. So I hope that I managed to set the scene. Dividend proposal, we could come back to it later, increase of EUR 0.03 per share. This is our recommendation to the general assembly, which will take place by the end of May, up to EUR 0.60. And this is a kind of, again, first step of keeping our promise, which we gave to the capital markets, progressive dividends year-by-year meaning increasing dividends per share based on a payout ratio of 50% to 60%. So for 2024, this would be a payout ratio of 53%. And all this, of course, based on higher net earnings. So having said so, I may hand over to Kurt, our CFO and CRO.

Thank you, Andreas, and a warm welcome to everybody to this UNIQA Full Year 2024 Conference Call. So I'm on Page #6, key financial indicators that came out of the results for 2024 are shown here. So again, roughly 15% growth in earnings per share following the result after tax. A payout ratio, which is in line, on the one hand, with the history, and on the other hand, also with our target between 50% and 60%. Regular capital position, strong as reported out. And the return on equity at 12.4 percentage points in 2024. Please note that the year 2023 is deteriorated by a shift in some participations, which took place in 2022 and '23. So the like-to-like amount would be 12.7% for the year 2023. When you look on the next page, talking about CSM, which increased up to roughly EUR 5.4 billion and led to a sustainability development in Life and Health of EUR 304 million release and EUR 236 million on new business CSM. This is generally leading to a CSM sustainability ratio of 77.8%, which is better than 2023 and are on the way to the target 2028, which we see at 90%. This was, on the one hand, driven by, next page, with good top line development that we achieved over the whole group. So you see in the blue box that we grew internationally by roughly 15%, Austria by roughly 5%. So a very favorable growth for the UNIQA Group, very sustainable also for the upcoming years in that respect. And what we also see that this is also in line with the 5% CAGR, which is targeted by the year 2028. One thing that is obvious because we have now Q1, we were talking some weeks about Q1. Q1 is shown here, this EUR 2.2 billion is the strongest premium quarter in UNIQA. This has to do, especially with the international business units, where in the first quarter a big part of the at least annual contracts is earned and this leads also to the high impact on the premiums in Q1. This is just an information for you. And the split is favorable in terms of our strategy. When it comes to admin costs, they remain on a stable basis. Still a way to go for the target 2028, but the level of 15.9% is, for us, okay. You see also the share between Austria and international, so no big jumps. And with this, a very favorable and stable position for UNIQA. Page 10, the P&C segment. On the one hand, we talk about, and I'm looking at the middle of the page, of a loss ratio and the decomposition, which is shown here that the NatCat event generally in UNIQA for the year 2024, around EUR 390 million, roughly had an impact on 7%. 2% is the reinsurance result, which is decreasing and 3% roughly was the discounting effect without the unwinding impacting positively the compensation. So that means the development of the so-called attritional claims, this 59% on a gross basis or 65% on a net basis, is the key driver for the very favorable and good result on P&C side and is driven by a very good development on the base claims. So we had here a better development in 2023 and '22, with in line run-off results in all the segments. No major losses, which are significantly higher than the average. And this is the reason why a very good attritional claims plus the stable development of costs and the good growth led to a combined ratio on a net basis base of 93.1 percentage points. Costs you see on the right-hand side are getting better in relation to '23 on the P&C side. Boris on Page 11, the details, I think nothing to talk about this anymore. We show here the effect on the gross side and on the net side. As I mentioned, roughly EUR 390 million in 2024 on general weather-related claims, EUR 222 million alone is coming from Boris. We see this not as a single event, we see such events coming more and more frequent. And this is also why we take also on the planning phase care on such developments. The Life business in 2024 on Page #12 is more or less following the development over the last quarters and years. So the technical result is stable with EUR 155 million. The new business that we are creating is quite high new business value. What we are lacking is a little bit the volume but this has to do with also in situation generally with high maturity portfolio of UNIQA and leads to a position that the release of the CSM is higher than the new business. But the new business that we are writing is exactly that what we are wanting from the profitability side. Okay. Health business on Page #13, let's maybe spend here a little bit more because we have 2 things to report out in that respect. On the one hand, the [ operative ] business on the Health side is very good and stable and following also that what we reported out in the last years also before IFRS 17. Let me guide a little bit through the waterfall on the left-hand side. So we have the new business on the CSM basis, which is leading to EUR 106 million. And we have then 2 bars. On the right hand, EUR 77 million is coming from the noneconomic variance. That is, on the one hand, the premium indexation, that means the lapse situation that is the situation of the benefits that we paid and that we expected, which are, in that case, less than expected. So this leads to a total EUR 106 million plus 77 million, EUR 183 million, we call this economic [ operative ] profit. And economic variance is coming from favorable capital market developments and also from the good development of the financial results leads then with a EUR 58 million additionally to EUR 241 million economic profit in Health business, 2024. This is then set off by the CSM release and leads then in total, on the right-hand side, to a technical result of around EUR 100 million. What we see in the IFRS accounting scheme is that, coming back to the left-hand side, that only 3% that what we created as a profit in the year 2024 is allocated to the P&L because out of the situation of CSM and [indiscernible] CSM in Health business is released over 32 years is then reflected in the P&L. And on the other hand, we have a situation that we are accounting and treating the Health business on variable fee approach. That means everything around good development in the net investment income is offset by the liabilities, and therefore, we have no impact from the capital markets in the Health business. If you then deduct the non-attributable cost and if you then consider that we have an effect of around EUR 20 million on a consolidation basis in the Health segment, we end up at this EUR 10 million EBT, which is shown on the Health segment in the annex. So here, again, the [ operative ] business is working quite well, which is shown on the left-hand side on the waterfall. We have, on the one hand, accounting treatment; on the other hand, effects on a consolidation basis and this treatment with EUR 10 million EBT on Health, but this is not the real value of the Health business of UNIQA. This is also underlined on Page #14 where we show the new business margins. And if you look at the new business margin on the Health business, this is 9.1 percentage points, quite high, in relation with a EUR 1.2 billion present value of expected premium, this leads then exactly to this EUR 106 million CSM. And this is what we call very good economic profit of the Health business. You can also see this for the Life business and for the unit-linked business in the Life area. Core markets on a solid basis on Page #15. So UNIQA Austria delivering EUR 313 million on EBT, including dividends and including the international dividends in that respect. Also STRABAG is included here. The international business is contributing with EUR 214 million on EBT. Looking a little bit on the OCI and coming to the investment results, Page #16. On the one hand, we had a quite good situation on the yield curve, 10 years Austrian government bond increased a little bit from 2.6% to 2.8% rounded, also impacting positively financial results. Expected credit loss development, very stable. And in that case, nothing to mention. Also no special impairments that have been taken in 2024. These are also reflected in the next page, which is new from how we show the net financial results. On the one hand, we report net investment income. This is the great -- this is the performance that is coming from our asset managers. With this then, we add the unit-linked that leads to -- and then we have to deduct because of the value [ VFA ] approach, we have to deduct the change of the underlying item, a huge amount of EUR 780 million. Just remain on the topic of the Life and Health business with the VFA unwinding effect as a counterpart to the discounting effect. And this then leads to the net financial result of EUR 210 million, which is shown in the EBT which is then the real EBT effect of UNIQA. So here also for you, the impact of the accounting treatment of IFRS 9/17 and the variable fee approach. The last section I wanted to report out is the group outlook for 2025. So on the one hand, we are suggesting the EUR 0.60 per share as a proposal to the AGM, which will take place in June, which is all then leading to the basis of 2024 end of the year dividend yield of 7.8 percentage points. And on the other hand, the profitability target for 2025. Here, let me give some guidance in that respect. So we still refer to that what we told you on the Capital Markets Day in London and in Vienna. That means we speak to the improvement of technical excellence in all business lines, especially in P&C. This means that also from a target that we targeted to exceed the full year of 2024. And we see a potential out of the existing global economic development and this has to be considered before we come out with a stronger and with a more detailed and granular guidance, which we'll then do after the Q1 results in that respect. We have a situation with the U.S. and with generally the situation in the global economic development, where we see it as too early to give a clear guidance of UNIQA. We will do this and we will prepare for that when we talk about Q1 results. With this, I would like to hand over to you and answer and discuss your questions together with Andreas. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Rok Stibric calling from ODDO BHF.

I hope you can hear me. I would just have 2. One, is on the Health insurance business, if you could just provide a bit more color on development? I'm just now comparing year-over-year performance and seeing that there has been a slight decline in profitability on technical and then also earnings before taxes levels. And my second question is concerning the outlook. I mean I understand that we are now still at the beginning of the year, but just following up on the capital market story. In order to achieve this 5 percentage compounded average growth rate, I believe that targeting profit before tax is above EUR 500 million should be something within a realistic plan. And I was just wondering what's your thought on that? That would be all from my side.

Thank you, Rok. So I'll start with the second question. I just can confirm what you said. Yes, we are in the beginning of the year. This is why I said before, we will have -- especially regarding the development over the last 2 weeks, more guidance then after Q1. The EUR 500 million, yes, they are for us not only targets. They are for us targets, which we realistically see to be achieved. And with this, I would like to leave the question with this answer. The first question, the Health business, I tried to explain it during my introduction, but happy to do it again. So if you come back on Page 13 together with me, so we have several topics that we have to see. On the one hand, the insurance revenue grows by 9.8%. If you take this to a gross written premium growth, which is 10.1%, it is reflecting quite heavily that the business is good, the business is growing. The business is healthy. We see no negative impacts neither from lapses nor from less demand on that side. Secondly, if you combine Page #13 together with Page #14 and you see the new business margin is 9.1%. This is maybe also worth looking at because it is better than Q3. This is much better than the half year 2024 and with this also in line with our targets. So we target the new business margin in Health between 8.5% and 9.5%, which is exactly where we want to be with both tariffs, the inpatient and outpatient tariffs in Austria we're talking about. International business is differently, but in that case the driver is Austria. The volume, Rok, down [ with ] EUR 1.2 billion, exactly reflecting the insurance revenue I told you before. And this leads now, going back to Page #13 again, this leads to the situation that we make them only as a new business CSM of EUR 106 million. We are also having this EUR 77 million on so-called noneconomic variances. That is, again, less lapses than assumed, a higher premium increase than assumed and a better situation on our benefits in that respect. So both parts together, EUR 106 million and EUR 77 million is the operating profit of EUR 183 million. In the old accounting scheme, I would say this is more or less a 1:1, the profit that we showed under IFRS 4. IFRS 17 says, okay, this is the CSM we are trading and this you are winding up over the lifetime of your contracts. And UNIQA's contracts in total is on average 32 years. So one part is going to the P&L, 3%. The rest is then taking an increase of the CSM and is impacting the EUR 3.5 billion on CSM. So this is the situation on the Health business and this is in 2024, slightly better than in 2023. What then happens below these technical results, Rok, you are right. Here, we have 2 effects that are differently and are leading then to this, what you say, okay, the general result of Health is less than expected. It's on the one hand that we have the [ VFA ] effects on the financial results. So we have not that impact as we had in previous times. And the second thing is, okay, non-attributable costs. Also there, it's a little bit higher according to high interest rates, especially for the pension reserves and things like that. And then we have one effect from the consolidation basis with EUR 20 million. And this leads then to the decrease of the earnings before tax of EUR 10 million. So I think the long answer with many numbers, but that's the way to the EUR 10 million is the main message. The core business of Health is very healthy, is stable and is better than in 2023.

The next question comes from the line of Antoine Bouchetoux, calling from AlphaValue.

I've got 2 questions, too, please. So my first one will be on the solvency ratio, which is very high at 255%, significantly above the targeted 180% to 230% range. And I guess it will probably increase in the first half of '25 if interest rates remain at that level. So I know you mentioned in the past that you are considering potential M&A opportunities. But I was also wondering if you might decide not to refinance some of your subordinated rate debt? So that would be my first question. And then second question, please, on your tax rate, which was lower this year at 21% versus 24% last year. I was wondering what were the drivers behind this? And should we expect a lower tax rate going forward?

Okay. Thank you, So I start with Solvency II and your expectations around the Tier 2 instruments. I want to repeat that what we said on post the Capital Markets Day. The optimal range is that what we defined, that's correct, 180% to 230%. The rest is something that we take for M&A activities that we take as a buffer also for the development of the interest side. Yes, just to remind you, UNIQA is very sensitive on the interest rate and especially in the shift of 50 basis points up and down. And this buffer is that what we want to hold for. This sensitivity comes from the duration mismatch, let's call it like that, in the Health business, which we take on purpose because we do not want to invest in only long-term assets in the Health business to be then locked in, especially in interest-favorable times for UNIQA. The second thing is also this is what we stated on the Capital Markets Day, we see at the moment not an issue to say, okay, that we pay bonus dividend, to make share buyback programs. We see [indiscernible] options that we leave open, but it's not at the moment something that we are thinking of. And that's the reason why the solvency ratio is in that case on that level. Yes, you're right. We have one instrument that is expiring in the middle of the year. So we will take the decision how to do and what to do in time and let you know in that case. From a [ new ] perspective of solvency issues, we do not need it, that's correct. On the second topic that we talked about, tax rate, which is better than in 2023, that's correct. We had that Austrian reduction on the tax rate by 1%, and the volume and the tax management will reduce the level of 23% in that respect. Overall, the tax rate we see between 20% and 21% on a sustainable basis of UNIQA in the upcoming years. [indiscernible] we have a new government, we don't know what they're doing. So in that respect, [ take a respite ] from the existing situation.

The next question comes from the line of Thomas Unger, calling from Erste Group. I think Thomas has just withdrew his question. So we currently have no questions in the queue. [Operator Instructions] Well, it seems that we -- there are no further questions, so I will hand you back to your host to conclude today's conference. Thank you.

Thanks for your time, and wish you a nice afternoon and remaining good week. Thank you for your interest. All the best to you. Bye-bye.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.