USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 15, 2022

US conference_presentation 45 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Connor Murphy

analyst
#1

Great. Well, we'd like to welcome Gannett's CEO, Mike Reed. Thank you for coming, Mike.

Michael Reed

executive
#2

Thank you. Thanks for having me.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#3

Of course. I guess to start, can you talk about your current overall strategy at Gannett and how it's evolved over the last 5 years?

Michael Reed

executive
#4

Yes. So thinking about it over the last 5 years, obviously, going back 5 years, there was an analog to digital strategy in place. What's really evolved over the last 5 years is the understanding of the importance, first of all, of scale and of a broader content set in order to really achieve the growth you need in the digital space. And on the B2B side, the market presence to be able to penetrate a significant number of businesses. So the importance of scale and the importance of a broader reach across the country in terms of markets and a broader content set has been an important thing for us. That's what led New Media to acquire Gannett back in November of 2019. And what's really changed since then is the digital strategy has really gotten very specific. We understand where our growth opportunity is, where we have the right to win, and we're seeing results that reflect that. So we've developed a North Star or an operating pillar strategy that reflects specifically where the growth opportunity is. And so I'd say, at this point, over 5 years, what's really changed is we have scale and we have a very specific strategy that leverages our own platforms to grow, and it's working.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#5

And you touched on it, but can you talk about the 5 pillars you laid out at the end of 2021?

Michael Reed

executive
#6

Yes. So pillar number one is our digital subscription growth strategy, which we wanted to accelerate. We were able to last year. We grew at about 50% last year, year-over-year, ended with just over 1.6 million paid digital subscribers. We laid out a 5-year or 2025 plan with our last earnings call, which we expect to hit 6 million paid digital subscribers. And our aspirational goal beyond that is 10 million. So that's operating pillar number one. Number two is another huge growth opportunity for us, and that's our digital marketing solutions business, which we sell off of our local IQ platform. That's a $400-plus million business. So actually, we did $440 million last year, growing at double-digit percents. The addressable market there is about $20 billion. So our opportunity to grow that is really significant. North Star number three is part of how we pay for it. It's how we make the investments in growth, and that's optimizing this legacy print business we have, which is still highly profitable and with good margins. And so our plans there are, how do we manage the secular decline, which we're going to continue to experience in a way where we optimize the production and cash flow to continue to pay down debt and to fund our growth. And North Star number four is actually new business growth and what are the traits or characteristics or assets of the business that we own that set us up for growth in new areas that don't cannibalize the existing business and represent new customer growth and new revenue growth. We have several fun things going on there. We have a sports media group. We have an events business. We have review.com, which takes advantage of the e-commerce business, helping consumers review products. And we announced a partnership with a sports gaming company this past year. And so lots of new things going on there, and that's potentially a huge revenue builder for us in the future. And then finally, but not least importantly, is our focus on inclusion, diversity and equity and how that impacts the other 4 pillars. And that's been a high priority for us, and that's our fifth operating pillar.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#7

Makes sense. And you laid out a long-term strategy to grow digital subscribers, getting from 1.6 or so now to the 10 million. Can you sort of lay out how you're going to attack that strategy? And can you talk about your digital growth to date a bit?

Michael Reed

executive
#8

Yes. So the biggest opportunity -- the easiest thing to think about is our just increasing penetration. We have 150 million consumers visit our digital platform, unique visitors to our platforms every single month. So we have 1 million -- 1.6 million today that are paying. So the single biggest opportunity is to convert some of those folks to paying customers. The most -- and then from there, it's product extension, product enhancements and personalization of our content strategy. And that's basically utilization of data to make sure we understand what consumers engage with, what they're willing to pay for, what they spend time with, serving them more of that content. So they're engaged with us longer, develop an emotional connection with us and become a paying subscriber. So we -- but we have the 1.6 million paid digital subscribers, I mentioned, over -- about 95% of those are in our local markets today. So think about the penetration opportunity there is one part of this. Second part of this is new product launches. We just took USA TODAY to -- we introduced a premium facet to USA TODAY's strategy in the third quarter last year. We launched a paid crossword app in the third quarter last year. And so those types of extensions are other opportunities for us. And then finally, we own the second biggest business in the U.K. It's called Newsquest, and they're just now embarking on the paid strategy as well. So I think a combination of much further penetration based on data and improvement in our content strategy, product enhancements, making it a better experience for our consumers and then product extension, those are really the areas we see the path to 6 million and then 10 million.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#9

That makes sense. And have you used discounting or bundling of products or partnerships to promote your products now? And can you speak to any LTV, the CAC ratios?

Michael Reed

executive
#10

Yes. So we have used -- we've used discounting as one of our primary growth tools so far. You mentioned bundling and partnerships. Those are two opportunities for us to grow. We have opportunities with bundling. One, we just announced where paid digital subscribers have access to over 200 e-additions from our markets across the country as a bundled option for subscribing to one of our products. There are many more bundled opportunities that we're working on. And promotion or partnerships is another opportunity we're working on. We're in some discussions with other partners who could bring subscribers to us. So those are two kind of on-the-come ideas, but the bundling has been one of the primary -- I'm sorry, not bundling, the discounting has been one of the primary focuses for us so far to bring people in, get them engaged and then move their price up over time. Our -- we have a real advantage with CAC because we're already local and we cover news, so that naturally brings people to us. I mentioned we have 150 million people come to us every month. So our customer acquisition costs are much lower than a newer startup that might come into the market with no brand, no presence and introducing a new content -- new type of content. So our CAC -- our LTV to CAC is very healthy. We haven't publicly disclosed anything, and it is an evolving number because our digital subscription strategy is so new. But our customer acquisition costs, I'd say we have a real strategic advantage there because our products have been in the market. The brands have been in the market for more than 100 years, and we're known as the place to go for local news and information.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#11

That makes sense. And so you rolled out the digital model of USA TODAY in the last 6 months or so. Can you discuss how that has been going? Are there any changes or enhancements you're going to make? And how are conversations with advertisers?

Michael Reed

executive
#12

Yes. So we did -- we rolled it out in the third quarter last year. So we're 7 or 8 months into that. Our subscriber growth has exceeded expectations so far, although we haven't publicly stated anything. And as I mentioned, 95% of our current paid subscriber base is local, so it's not new set. So -- but we've outperformed what we thought we were going to do over the first 7 or 8 months. I would say we've taken a bit of a hybrid approach to this because our digital advertising platform in the USA TODAY was so strong. And we draw 60 million unique visitors to the USA TODAY every month. And off of that, we have a digital advertising base that's grown for consecutive years. So we're very aware of that. And while we believe the subscriber opportunity is tremendous and will create more value for shareholders in the long term than the advertising model, we're taking a hybrid approach to how we do that. And so what that really means is the amount of content we put as we mark as premium where you have to pay to get it is still relatively small in relationship to all of the content the USA TODAY produces. So what we're really trying to do is we're being conservative, trying to figure out what type of premium content actually works, what do consumers engage with and pay for, what doesn't work. And we're doing that in a way that's not disruptive to the total audience that's coming to us. And as we learn from what does generate subscriptions, we'll start to do more of that and shift more into premium and a little less away from free. So it's a bit of a hybrid approach. So we've been able to protect -- protect is probably not the right word, but we've been able to continue to monetize the audience through advertising while we slowly grow the subscriber base. So it's been a good experience so far. And I think we've exceeded our internal expectations so far.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#13

And have you brought new advertisers into the fold that are interested in the product or...

Michael Reed

executive
#14

We have, especially because you have a very -- we're collecting more and more data on our customers, and there's a registration process. And the more folks that go through the registration process, the better the data we have on the audience that we can then serve to advertisers. But also the USA TODAY, marketing the size of the audience that's coming and then being able to further market the type of audience, what that looks like has helped us bring new advertisers into the fold, mainly national, sometimes large regional advertisers.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#15

That makes sense. And can you discuss some of the challenges you faced shifting to the digital strategy? And what have you learned from the adversity? And how can you apply it to avoid pitfalls and achieve the targets in the future?

Michael Reed

executive
#16

Yes. So the challenges that I'd say -- the biggest challenge is culture. And that's a hard thing for a business that's as old as ours, that's been doing things a certain way for a long time, essentially a business that was a monopoly that's no longer a monopoly. So the cultural challenges are big, and you can't underestimate the importance of tackling those. I think another important learning is that on this journey to creating a sustainable long-term digital business, it's not a straight line. It's not a straight path, and there are a lot of bumps in the road. So you've got to really understand that it's a journey. It's more of a marathon than a sprint. And you can't waver when you hit those bumps. You have to make pivots when something you're doing is not working, of course. And we're making minor pivots all the time on things we want to do that just doesn't work, falls flat. You got to make a pivot. But your overall strategy, if it's working and you believe in it, you have to stick to it. And so another part of that, another learning of that is every decision you make in the company, big or small, has to be in line with that strategy, that growth strategy. Otherwise, you have cracks in the foundation, and your team sees it and people on the outside see it. So it's -- to me, the biggest learnings that we've had really are how do you overcome the cultural challenges, how do you align your team around goals that are important for the future and how do you make all of your decisions in line with that future and continue to be consistent in that over a longer period of time. I mean those are big learnings for us. So you have to take risk and you have to try new stuff and then you have to make pivots when it's not working, and you have to do that quickly.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#17

Makes sense. And just one more on digital. How should we think about your overall digital growth going forward? What does profitability look like near term, medium term, long term?

Michael Reed

executive
#18

Yes. So we -- 1/3 of our revenue today is digital. We did just over $3 billion of revenue last year in 2021, and we did $1 billion of digital revenue. So we're about 1/3 now. We grew at just over 10% last year. I think same-store was about 11% growth last year. And we see over the next, say, 3 years that digital subscriber growth, 3 to 5 years being digital -- or I'm sorry, subscript digital revenue being about 2/3 of total revenue with profitability attached to that. Our overall company margins today are around 12% to 13%. We see those margins growing by 300 to 500 basis points over that same period of time. So we do expect to have about 2/3 of our revenue digital to have EBITDA margins that are in the -- more in the mid- to high-teens from where we are today. It's hard -- it's still hard today to tie EBITDA margin directly to digital because so much of the infrastructure of the company is serving both masters. And so it's just -- you can just start playing with allocations and come up with whatever margin you want. So the most important one is to look at the overall margin of the company.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#19

That makes sense. And switching gears, can you talk about the digital marketing solutions business? It's about $450 million revenue and double-digit profits. How large can that get from a revenue and EBITDA perspective? And what are your expectations over the next 1 to 5 years?

Michael Reed

executive
#20

Yes. So I think the opportunity there is huge. I think, first of all, our right to win because we're already local. It gives us a significant advantage over other players in the market who may be national or international and don't have any local market presence and, therefore, have a much more -- a much higher customer acquisition costs and branding exercise to go through. So I think our opportunity is big, and I think we have the right to win. In the U.S., about $20 billion is spent on digital marketing solutions and there's 2 ways to look at that. There are about -- and I'm just going to say roughly half is medium-sized to larger businesses that spend about $10 billion, and that's mainly where we play today. So our $450 million is penetrating that piece of the $10 billion. There's another whole $10 billion-ish category for the small business, and that's where part of our big opportunity lies in the future. And so we're focused on growth really in 2 cohorts, continuing to grow in that medium- to large-sized business area where we're successful today and then to really develop our product experience for businesses to help us grow more in that small business space. And so that's a lot more freemium and DIY-type products to bring customers in. We've had a lot of success to date with our current offerings, though. And our customers tend to stay on average more than 2 years. And 25% of our local IQ DMS platform customers have actually integrated our platform with their content management system, which makes that much more sticky with us. And our ARPU has been growing over the last couple of years in that particular cohort. So a $20 billion opportunity, a 10% penetration across the company -- country is a $2 billion opportunity for us. We certainly covered more than 10% of the country with our presence today. We're in 40-plus states. And so in our penetration in the -- as I mentioned in the one cohort is like 4.5% today. So I don't know exactly what -- where the opportunity lies, but it's certainly significantly north of where we are today. And I think this is potentially a multibillion-dollar category over the long term.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#21

Makes sense. And just so we get a clarification, who do you partner with? And can you talk about your conversations with clients who use the platform? And what's the pipeline to getting new clients on board?

Michael Reed

executive
#22

Yes. So our main partners today are businesses kind of in that medium to large category. They spend anywhere from $12,000 a year to $250,000 a year. We have some larger clients who will spend up to $2 million, but that's generally where we're playing today. As I mentioned, our conversations with them have been good. I think the products that we're delivering them work, and that's reflected in the fact that our businesses stay with us for more than 2 years and 25% of them have actually integrated our platform into their content management system. So what we're doing, we're -- is working. We have the opportunity to continue to grow in that space through our current sales channels. We have our media sales staff. We have a digital marketing solutions-only sales staff, and we have inside sales staff. Inside sales staff is probably the fastest-growing one, funneling leads to that place. But the other opportunity then is the smaller business. And that's where our product expansion presents the biggest opportunity in that space, bringing customers in that aren't going to spend $25,000 a year but who, with significant volume, can be a great cohort for us. So that's more of on the come, where we play today. We have 15,000 customers that are basically generating $450 million of revenue. That 15,000 customer base is out of, we think, about 1 million to 1.2 million businesses that spend in that area that we are playing in. So our opportunity -- if we just double from 15,000 to 30,000 in that cohort, you go from $450 million to $900 million. But there are 31 million SMBs. So there's basically 30 million out there that are the smaller cohort, that used to use the yellow pages and phone book and stuff like that. And so that's where a significant volume opportunity exists for us.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#23

And are you guys hiring behind that to go after that opportunity? Or is there going to be increased headcount?

Michael Reed

executive
#24

Well, we are. The first thing we're doing is the hiring is in product because we have to build out the product. The product, though, will primarily be DIY. And so it will have call centers that can help people through things, so we'll expand the call centers. This small business opportunity for us, though, is not adding salespeople and going out and knocking on doors. The opportunity to add sales force, though, to the first cohort is there. And we're first trying to improve the efficiency of each of our sales reps to a point where we think we've maximized that before we add more. But the additions of staffing right now is more on the product side for the new opportunity in DMS.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#25

Okay. That makes sense. And can you discuss how you optimize search, social and other platforms for clients using your first-party data? And what does pricing look like for advertising?

Michael Reed

executive
#26

Yes. So we -- in our DMS business, we're pretty excited about our optimization product for small businesses, for medium-sized businesses. It's actually patent pending. And basically, we've built a proprietary bidding exchange that helps a business maximize its spend to create the most customers it can for the lowest cost per customer. And that bidding exchange goes across search, social, display and other platforms. We call it our cross-media optimization product. And as I mentioned, it's proprietary. We have patent pending on it, and we think it's a real differentiator for us. It gives us the right to win with not only our business customers today where it is working, but in the future. So that, to me, is how we think about how do we optimize for our customers, the ability for them to spend, get the lowest customer acquisition costs, get more leads than they thought and then see them grow that spend with us through this bidding exchange. Our ARPU right now with this customer base, I'm talking about pricing and stuff, is a little bit over $2,500 a month. And that's grown over the last couple of years. I can't remember where we were 2 years ago. I want to say $2,000, maybe a little bit over $2,000. So it's grown pretty significantly to over $2,500, probably about $2,600 as of the end of 2021.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#27

Wow. Okay. That's great. And we touched on DIY. But what are the advantages of your technology and offering? And overall, can you talk about the future of digital marketing product? Do you see freemium DIY models becoming a larger portion of your users?

Michael Reed

executive
#28

Yes. The latter part of that, yes. Freemium DIY will become a much larger portion of our customer base and eventually our revenue platform because that's where the most significant volume growth lies. I mean there are 30 million SMBs out there that aren't going to spend $250,000 a year. But they're still important customers for us that will spend something and that we can help them grow and grow that part of our business significantly. So that's a big opportunity for us. On the technology side, I'd say our patent-pending proprietary bidding exchange technology is unique and gives us a real kind of opportunity to continue to grow in both cohorts. But I think, importantly, a significant opportunity for us is to leverage what others don't have, and that's that local presence. We have local brands. We have local people. We have local sales force. And our ability to access businesses in these markets from hundreds of markets across the country quickly and inexpensively is a real asset for us and gives us a real advantage over other players who have a name and -- but not a name brand in that community. The other thing I would mention is we've -- not just us but the work we've done and others have done has really borne out that businesses in a community want to do business with as few vendor partners as they can. They don't want to do business with 10 different people to help them manage their social media strategy. And if possible, they want to do some business with somebody local. So part of our strategy is to develop a very comprehensive digital marketing solutions product portfolio that we can then bring to our business customers or potential customers so we can answer both of those needs. We're local, and we'll give you -- it's a one-stop shop.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#29

And where are you right now on the DIY product? I know you said you're hiring people to build it out. And so it's early stages. But as we think about over the next period of time, when do you think that will be rolled out and...

Michael Reed

executive
#30

Yes. So I think we'll roll out pieces of that this year, and you'll start to see us grow. It's very early stages, but you'll see us start to acquire customers this year and then 2023 will be a much bigger year. But we've been working on it for a while. It's not something we just started to think about. And so we're -- there's still a lot of work to do there. And there are more products that will come on the back of that. But we're actually getting into the market this year. And we'll have customers in this part of our business this year.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#31

Great. Great. And can you discuss your incremental $80 million investment in product content and data this year? Can you give us more specifics around each bucket? And can you help us size the incremental investment beyond 2022? Are there areas you believe will need further investment beyond this year?

Michael Reed

executive
#32

Yes. So yes, this year, product data content in marketing, with regard to product, it's really -- personalization efforts is a huge part of what's getting our investment today. The collection of information on consumers and then the ability to leverage the data we have on consumers to deliver a more personalized experience and how do we deliver that personalized experience even outside of them coming to our platform through -- whether it's audio or e-mail or some kind of newsletter or something. So there's an investment really in product to enhance the personalization efforts, which we think is a big future driver for subscriptions. For content, it's really -- it's listening and it's analyzing and then looking at what the data shows us right now and where content engages consumers and where they actually spend money -- spend time and money and then investing in that type of content. On the marketing side, it's really -- it's, again, leveraging data to understand what marketing efforts drive the best results, what marketing efforts fail, how do we invest more in the efforts that drive the best results but also how the investment will come in putting -- making seamless, putting together our content management system where the content sits in our marketing system, where we're doing all of the consumer marketing and how do we make those two systems talk to each other better than they do today. And that's part of our investment for this year. And around data, it's -- that's a significant one. It's building out a team that analyzes all the data and tells us -- gives us the results and tells us what we need to know and what we should be looking at, what's working, what's not working. And doing that across all facets of our business, whether it's digital marketing solutions business, it's our content business. It's really every facet of the business. So the investment in data has been significant. It's been ongoing for the last few years and is really one of the most important drivers of the overall strategy. Being customer-obsessed means listening to what they tell you, and that's in the data. So those are where the investments are going this year. The investment, the incremental $80 million is partially bigger than you might expect. But that -- we are eliminating -- continue to eliminate cost in our print product, and we will continue to do that. It's in secular decline, and those costs will continue to come down. We just have -- this particular year, we have raw material costs that are up quite a bit because of inflation and supply chain issues. And so that's mitigating some of the great work we're doing on the cost side in the legacy business, rather than offsetting some of the incremental investment going forward. So we do expect to make incremental investments going forward in growth for sure. We also expect to continue to take costs out of the legacy cost structure. And the hope is, year-to-year, those are offsetting each other. Where the growth goes in the future, where we make the investments in the future, a lot of that's going to depend on what the data says and where we're having success for growth right now and making sure we're investing in those opportunities.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#33

Makes sense. That's a perfect segue to the print side. So obviously, Gannett has optimized and transformed its print business over the last decade. Can you discuss how you can further draw efficiencies out of that business? Are there any asset divestitures that can be made? Are you happy with the portfolio as it sits?

Michael Reed

executive
#34

Yes. So there's a lot we can do there, and we will continue to do. I guess I'd start with in our smallest of markets, where we have a very small daily newspaper or weekly newspaper, where the market is not big enough to really scale the digital business we want. Our thoughts there are to exit those markets thoughtfully through sales. In a lot of cases, those are very kind of marginal breakeven type products. They're pretty small. And so one of the ways we'll clean up the print side or optimize the print side better is eliminating the small markets through sale that take up a lot of time and resources of the management team because there's still a market to deal with so that we can focus our efforts more on our Tier 1 and Tier 2 markets. Our Tier 1 and Tier 2 markets represent about 125 markets across the country but more than 60% of the business. So that's really where our business exists today. And then the other thing is in the -- even in our Tier 1 and Tier 2 markets, but also in the rest as we go through cleanup process there is eliminating unprofitable circulation, finding ways to continue to deliver less print itself without disrupting the advertising. And one example of that is in March or in January, we announced that it's going in place in March and April as we eliminated Saturday editions across the country. And we've replaced those with the e-editions. So you're still going to get a Saturday product maybe as robust or more robust than before because now it's digital. But we've eliminated that Saturday product completely across the country from our print side, which then frees up, less raw materials, less delivery costs, that kind of thing. So we're going to continue to do that. So I'd say the big opportunity is for us to continue to optimize the legacy print businesses, exiting the markets that don't have a significant digital future that fits with our strategy. And number two is reducing the actual dependency on print in those markets without disrupting advertising. So taking a real thoughtful approach to day elimination, eventually more day elimination and migrating advertisers into other products we're offering in the market or other days of print where they can still have the result -- the desired results delivered for them.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#35

Makes sense. And have you disclosed how much eliminating the Saturday print edition has saved you or...

Michael Reed

executive
#36

No. Well, we just started it in March, so it's a brand-new thing.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#37

Okay. Okay. But you're planning on potentially eliminating more days maybe?

Michael Reed

executive
#38

We could, yes. Our big days right now are Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday. And so looking at Monday and Tuesday is probably the next thing to take a look at. And yes, so more day reduction is an opportunity, less -- also looking at your circulation, where you're delivering because there are pockets of circulation that no longer deliver value, are expensive, maybe very -- on the way outskirts of town that you can pull back on. And advertisers aren't really looking to reach that particular part of the market. The other thing I should have mentioned, too, is just the number of free products and lowering our exposure to them. And that's where we need to do a good job moving advertisers into other product offerings we have. But the free products don't fit our subscription strategy long term in the digital world. They're 100% ad-based dependent products. And a lot of those products were started in the '80s and '90s and served a great purpose then and they don't serve that purpose today. And so these are magazines or shoppers or TMCs or free weeklies in an outlying market where you wanted to bring coverage in at one point in time. So I think as of 2021, our 10-K would have this, I think, but we probably had at least 500 free products around the country. So there's a significant opportunity there to lower our cost structure, increase EBITDA and shift those advertising dollars into other places and eliminate those products.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#39

That makes sense. And I believe your free cash flow is expected to double in 2022. Can you help us frame what cash conversion looks like longer term?

Michael Reed

executive
#40

Yes. So in our -- with our Q4 earnings we did a couple of weeks ago, we actually forecasted out through 2025 a 40% CAGR over that period of time, free cash flow conversion growing to 70% in the out-years of that projection. What -- it's not all just EBITDA growth, although EBITDA growth in the out-years helps. But a lot of it is the reduction of cash cost below EBITDA. So our pension costs, for example, in 2022 are 50% lower than in 2021. They drop another 50% in 2022. Our interest costs are down -- are going to be down 20% in 2022 and will drop significantly in the out-years as well because we're going to continue to pay down debt. Our integration costs, reorganization and integration costs that were extraordinarily high in the last few years because of the merger we did between Gannett and New Media and putting in place 350 -- $325 million of synergies led to some more exorbitant onetime costs there. Those are waning in the out-years. We -- as a result of COVID, we were able to defer FICA payments like all other businesses for a period of time. That resulted in us saving $40 million of cash flow in 2020, but all companies are required to pay half of that back in 2021 and half at the end of 2022. So we have one payment left there at the end of 2022. That's $20 million for us. So our -- the costs all below the EBITDA line are really coming down significantly. We do have a big NOL. We don't expect to pay more than some small state and local taxes that are kind of $5 million, $6 million a year. Other than that, we're not looking -- we won't be a taxpayer. So our EBITDA to free cash flow margin is going to grow substantially in the out-years. So we feel really good about our forecast of going from last year, I guess we had about $90 million of free cash flow, growing that at a 40% CAGR out over -- through 2025. And as you mentioned, it's a double this year in 2022.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#41

That's perfect. And so with all that cash, can you discuss your capital allocation strategy? Will dividends and buybacks be a key use of capital? Can you talk about your outstanding authorization? And if you think the Board will continue to -- continue that strategy once it's complete? And then I know you have some convertible notes out there. Can you discuss buying those back potentially?

Michael Reed

executive
#42

Yes. So capital allocation strategy, we do -- with the recent stock repurchase plan we put in place, we now have all levers available to us. So we can buy back shares in the open market. We can -- we have the right to buy back 100 million of our convertible notes. Our Term Loan B is fully prepayable with no penalty, and that's about $500 million. And that's a high priority for us. We also have some non-call bonds, non-call 2 bonds that have some premium attached in the out-years. So they're a little bit farther off the radar -- off of our radar today than some of the other initiatives. But our highest priority is repaying debt. We think that there has been overhang on our equity over the years because of leverage and because of the industry that we're in and the transformation we're going through. So we've paid down almost $400 million of debt over the last 2 years. And we're going to continue to make a high priority of debt repayment. Our first lien debt right now sits at about $900 million, and we'd love to see that Term Loan B be gone as we enter 2024, which is a little bit more than half that $900 million. However, we also -- with the share repurchase plan we put in place, and you asked for the amount, it's $100 million. We see that as a priority, too. If our share price is not trading where we think it reflects something near fair value. So that will be an opportunity for us in 2022, most likely if our share price continues to trade where it is today. I think we're trading at like 4x free cash flow or actually just over 4x EBITDA. So I think there's dislocation in the market. So our highest priorities for capital allocation will be debt repayment and share repurchase. We don't have plans for a dividend at this point in time. As we get out into the future, though, and you think about the Term Loan B being gone in 2024, '25 and converting free cash flow, if you do the math on the compounded CAGR, you're looking at high 300s, a big free cash flow number for which we can put to use for share repurchases or potentially both share repurchases and repurchasing the convertible notes. So all of that will be done in line with a strategy that maximizes share price for our shareholders.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#43

And is there anything on the M&A front that you could be opportunistic about? Any pockets or areas of the business that you would like to maybe add to or it would be helpful?

Michael Reed

executive
#44

Well, we don't have anything on the horizon like near term. We are always looking at how do we create the most value for shareholders. So if there's an acquisition that can accelerate our DMS growth significantly, we would look at it. If there's an acquisition that would accelerate our digital subscriber growth significantly, we'd look at it. If there was something that improved our margins by 500 basis points, we'd look at that. So we're not specifically out there trying to buy stuff. But our doors -- our phone -- our door is definitely open to ideas to come in that can help us grow faster than we are today. We do feel like we have significant scale to execute on our strategy. So it's not like we got to continue to do a roll-up in the industry. Although if we're executing well on our strategy and something comes along that makes sense, we would take advantage of it. So I'd say we're open to M&A, and we'll consider M&A but only in the context of being able to buy it at a great price and being able to show tangible accretive benefits from the acquisition.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#45

Makes sense. And then can you -- with the minute we have left, discuss your DEI and ESG efforts as the last pillar and what you're doing specifically there?

Michael Reed

executive
#46

Yes. We're very proud of the efforts we're making there. And I think we're a leader in this country with -- especially with regard to public companies. We just last week published our first sustainability report, and it's incredibly comprehensive. And if you haven't seen it, I encourage you to go look at it. It's really, really good, and it really gives a road map of where we're going with regard to all of the 3 different pillars in ESG. We also, in 2021, published our first inclusion report. So we're very public about our diversity efforts, where we stand today, what our goals are, and we're measuring ourselves against those goals. And so -- with regard to internally working on these things, and it's 1 of our 5 operating North Star pillars that I mentioned early in this conversation today. So internally, we have the right focus and priority on it. But we're also being completely transparent with the world so that everybody else can see what we're doing. And we've enlisted some outside third-party help to make sure we're working in a manner that makes the most sense and where we can line up with Gannett the things that we can make the most impact on in our country and in the world where -- based on what the opportunities are there. And so very proud of what we've done with the sustainability report issued last week, the inclusion report issued in 2021. We've also been in numerous places voted a good place to work. And so I'm very proud of the efforts there. A lot to do, and it's an ongoing process for sure because you can always get better. But we're very focused on being a leader, not a follower in this ESG area and the IDE area.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#47

Great. Well, I think that's -- one question.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#48

[indiscernible].

Connor Murphy

analyst
#49

Sure.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#50

Well, [indiscernible] 3x free cash flow. And I guess the market, this is on next year. So I'm assuming the market considers this a melting ice cube. When do you -- and I think this coming year, we have about a 1% revenue decline.

Michael Reed

executive
#51

That's correct.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#52

When do you think revenues will start to grow when the market's perception could start to change?

Michael Reed

executive
#53

Yes. So we actually for the first time publicly stated that 2024 is the year that we'll grow with a sustainable long-term top line driven by digital. So we're right there. We're on the edge. And you're absolutely right. We're trading like a melting ice cube. And we're right there on the edge of being a growth company.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#54

Second question, I happen to like repurchase programs. The stocks are undervalued. I'm a little confused on what you said in terms of debt retirement versus stock repurchase. Basically, what is your most restrictive covenant in your debt? If you got this $100 million done this year, could you reload? Or are you limited by your covenants?

Michael Reed

executive
#55

Well, so we have covenant relief for 2022 on the $100 million. To reload on the $100 million, we go back to the Board, get another $100 million authorized and we go to our lending group, which is small and has been supportive to reload on the covenants there. We basically just need a waiver.

Connor Murphy

analyst
#56

We're out of time, Mike. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Michael Reed

executive
#57

Thank you. Yes. Thanks.

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