Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais S.A. (USIM5) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. Welcome to the Usiminas Conference Call to Discuss the Results for the First Quarter of 2025. I'm Leonardo Karam, Investor Relations Director at Usiminas. A free translation of the webcast presentation is available on the Usiminas IR website. We also have an interpreter for simultaneous translation. Please choose the sound channel on the icon at the bottom of your Zoom screen. All participants are logged in as listeners-only and their questions can be asked in writing in the Zoom Q&A session, the icon below on your screen. Participants listening in English will also be able to ask questions directly in this session. This conference call is being recorded and broadcast simultaneously on Usiminas's YouTube channel. Please note that this conference call is exclusively for investors and market analysts. Please identify yourself so that your question can be answered. We also ask that any questions from journalists be forwarded to Usiminas Media Relations at [email protected]. Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this conference call regarding the company's business prospects, as well as projections, operating, and financial targets regarding its growth potential, are forecasts based on management's expectations regarding Usiminas's future. These expectations are highly dependent on the performance of the steel industry, the country's economic situation, and the situation of the international markets, and therefore, are subject to change. With us today we have our CEO, Marcelo Chara; the Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, Thiago Rodrigues; and Commercial Vice President, Miguel Homes. Initially, Marcelo will make a few comments, Thiago will then present the results, then the questions asked in the Q&A session will be answered. I'll now turn over to Marcelo. Marcelo, please.

Good morning, everyone. It is a great pleasure to be here with you to share the results of the first quarter of 2025. We started the year following the positive journey or trajectory of the last quarter. We attained 41% on consolidated EBITDA with BRL 773 million (sic) [ BRL 733 million ] and a margin of 11%, confirming our expectations of best results in the first quarter. Increase of 4% in the sales of steel in the domestic market shows a resilient demand. But our focus to keep on having better results is still gaining competitiveness, seeking efficiency in all our operations to continue with a cost reduction trajectory that is consistent. In Mining, we had 11% higher sales compared to the same period last year, impacted by the rainfall in the region and the quality was higher of the material extracted from the new mining areas, allowing and contributing to better results. For the next quarter, we have an expectation of consolidated results that is quite stable. Since the sales volume in similar volumes and the continuity of the gradual reduction in sales and in mining, the volume should be stable. Regarding uncertainties on the price of ore, however, we see a scenario that is challenging and uncertain for the second half of 2025, especially because of the high volumes of imports of steel and unfair competitive conditions, the impact of domestic consumption considering the high interest rates and the uncertainties of the international market. In Usiminas' mission, the lack of applying effective measures to create fair conditions of competition and the strong presence as imports are subsidized, the main threat to the sustainability of the steel industry in Brazil and its whole value chain. Several countries have reacted against the excess of Chinese steel production. According to investors in Brazil, mid last year, there were 215 commercial defense measures against the Chinese steel and in the 4 months 9 new investigations on protection measures against China have been applied. The rest of the world is doing what Brazil should have done already, defending its industry, its employment, and its investments against an unfair commercial practice. In Brazil, we had 43 investigations and that are antidumping since January last year, several products in the metal industry, plastic, chemical, and textiles, amongst others, and 34 are only against China. The Secretariat of Foreign Trade has recently published the preliminary reports that [ underscore ] cold-rolled and also coated steel by China. Excellent work of the technical teams of the Ministry. They have found the practice of dumping with a margin of up to $645 for cold rolled and $552 for hot rolled. And although those unfair practices, no recommendation has been made of preliminary application of the antidumping right or law. This goes against what has happened in most countries, defending their industries against the unfair commercial practices. Import data of steel in Brazil are alarming and unacceptable. And March 2025 has shown the third largest volume and import of steel in history, and the expectations are very concerning. The volume of import of flat steel has attained 1 million tons, a growth of 42% regarding the same period 2024. The data reports that the attempts of the country to control the problems of import of steel have been effective -- have not actually been effective, and they must be urgently reviewed. We keep on working on, focusing on operational excellence and serving our customers via development of products and services and integration with the communities where we operate. And our main focus is care and best practices of environmental and performance and safety aligned to high commitment of our teams and our people. Thank you very much. And now I turn over to Thiago, please. You can continue.

Thank you very much, Marcelo. Good afternoon, everyone. So we're going to make a brief presentation of our results before opening up for questions. Let us move on to the first slide, please. We highlight in the period the best performance in the steel industry with EBITDA margin of 9%, 2.4 percent points above previous quarter, with an increase of 4% in the sales volume in the domestic market, reduction of 2% of COGS. One of the best results in the Mining segment, consolidated EBITDA attained BRL 733 million with a margin of 11% and net income of BRL 337 million. Here, I guess, we see consolidated results with higher volumes and price, both in the Steel and Mining. Net revenue was BRL 6.9 billion, a growth of 6% in the quarterly comparison of 10% with the first quarter of 2024. EBITDA follows trajectory of growth in the third consecutive quarter and exceeds 10% margins since the first quarter 2023 and confirming our expectation of better results as we see and as we have been communicating in previous calls. With operating strong results, we actually reverted the conditions here. We had net income higher since the fourth quarter of 2023. Here, we have some more results on results of the steel industry. We see first quarter steel sales [ 3% ] above previous quarter compared to the previous year, [ 5% ] higher, highlighting the resilient demand in the domestic market. Even with a lot of imported steel that is subsidized, we were able to increase the sales volume. Net revenue followed the increase in volume and grew 4%, BRL 6 billion. A small increase in net revenue per ton because of better prices applied to the segment. EBITDA had a growth of 44% when compared to previous period of BRL 528 million, moving up margin from 6% to 9%. Despite the improvement we see, we understand that we're still far from what would be a margin that is sustainable for the industry that enables investment to an industry that is so capital intensive as ours. We are still focused on the main goal, which is improving margins with cost reduction and gaining productivity, but we also need a market that is functional with isonomic competition so that this improvement can be possible in a gradual way. As mentioned by Marcelo, both internal and external scenarios with a lot of uncertainties, a lot of imports make it difficult to have short and long-term forecast. For the second half, we expect stable prices whilst the cost in steel industry should follow a trajectory of drop. But we are paying attention to risks associated to imports that could still impact the results in June. Hence, it is key, as Marcelo highlighted, that Brazil should position itself quickly, just as many countries are doing, to ensure competition isonomy and prevent the import of subsidized products that may impact the industry. On the next slide, we have the comparison of the EBITDA of previous quarter to this quarter, first quarter 2025. As commented, the effect of price and volume have contributed to an improvement of EBITDA of BRL 64 million, whilst the cost -- lower [ cost of goods ] added BRL 109 million to the EBITDA regarding previous quarter. The cost improvement was due to BRL 140 million in cost savings, reduction of fixed costs, operational efficiency, BRL 35 million regarding expenses regarding freight and BRL 35 million because of insurance indemnification on raw materials. Here we see the results of Mining. Sales volume was 2.2 million tons, slightly higher regarding previous quarter, 13% higher to the same period in the previous year. Net revenue, presented earlier, totaled increase of 20%, closed the quarter at BRL 917 million. This increase in revenue was generated because of the higher volume of sales with sea freight included, and also because of the higher quality of materials and lower discounts on quality applied by the market. These were the main reasons for the increase of 34% in EBITDA and reached BRL 206 million with a margin of 22%. In the next quarter, as Marcelo mentioned, we expect stable volumes for the steel industry. On the next slide, we have financial indicators. In this quarter, we had a temporary increase of working capital of BRL 778 million, and we expect that most of this increase should be returned in the next quarter. Main reasons for this increase in working capital were first because of higher volume of sales in March as compared to the sales in December last year, which led to receiving accounts for BRL 400 million, a natural effect when we have an increase in volume where accounts receivable is following normal levels as the portfolio we had a temporary increase in raw materials, [ BRL 770 million ] as part of the strategy of optimizing the mix for cost reduction as our expectation is also that there should be a reduction in the next quarter. And we've had a reduction of the Forfaiting of BRL 341 million since we have robust cash, and we don't see a need of increasing the use of this instrument. CapEx in the period was BRL 219 million. We expect to improve this pace in the next quarter as we keep our investment plan around BRL 1.5 billion for this year. With this, we had a negative cash flow in BRL 560 million. As I've mentioned, we expect to revert this increase as of next quarter. On the next slide, we see the net debt and leverage. So cash generation that we saw on the previous slide led the net debt to increase to BRL 1.4 billion. We still keep a quite comfortable leverage level of 0.71x. The profile of the debt is being [ equalized ]. As we mentioned previously, we concluded the [ emission ] of bonds in January with the best spreads attained by Usiminas showing that the market strategy has been ascertained since the market today does no longer have this favorable condition. We're using these resources to buy back the bonds in 2026. We still have $200 million outstanding that will be bought back in July when we have the right to call at par. This is the brief results presentation, and I go back to Leo so that we can start the questions.

Thank you, Thiago. We start with our Q&A session now. We have price, which is [indiscernible]. Lots of questions. Ricardo, lots of -- Tathiane Candini from J.P. Morgan. Lots of people asking questions. They want to know about the behavior of prices. So what about the price discussions after the March drops? And imports are quite strong, dollar falling. Is there space to keep the prices at current levels? And most people are asking about price transfers to auto industry in April, if we apply the same level of transfer that we applied in the first quarter. Basically, this is it, Miguel, please.

Good afternoon, Leo. Thank you all for the question. Let us start with the closing of contract with OEMs. As of 1st of April, they were -- we closed negotiations, and we closed with the same adjustment that is effective of the contract in January, about 3% was the price transferred for contracts as of 1st of April. Speaking of prices in other industries, it is a fact, as you've mentioned, the strong pressure that we have at the end in certain regions and industries, regions as Midwest, the South of the country and Northeast, there is a lot of pressure with an increase in imports, as we've mentioned, most of them, in our view, in unfair competition conditions added to the appreciation of real. There's great pressure of price adjustment in the coming weeks. Up to now, we haven't changed our prices. We kept this current conditions. If we have all those factors, high pressure, strong imports, and increase in the foreign exchange, we analyze the exchange from late 2024. So first quarter '24 has 5.85 and today a bit below 5.70. We should certainly expect adjustment in prices of spot negotiations in the coming weeks. And we also talked about expectation for the average price of first quarter. In our release, we mentioned stability in price. And there is a bit the consequence of the increase, obviously, of the average price to be invoiced in the second quarter for the automobile industry and the updated of price as of 1st April, and then we have adjustments justified by the 2 factors I mentioned, high imports and appreciation of the real, we expect to have certain stability of average price for the industrial sector.

Miguel, still for you, we have questions on export, Igor Guedes from Genial, Tathiane Candini from J.P. Morgan, and Guilherme Nippes from XP. They would like to know what kind of mix are you working on for exports, if there is any project on the pipeline to increase the aggregate value of the mix or if the price has been something specific Q1 '25. Last call, we mentioned certain contracted volumes in Argentina. And if you could see that reflected in the quarter or if you can expect these volumes in the second quarter as well? And then Guilherme adds also on this Argentinian share. What has driven these increases. Please, Miguel.

Thank you, Igor, Tathiane, and Guilherme. Actually, in previous quarter, we said that we would have an improve in the imports over the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 because of sales projects that we have capitalized and selling. We are invoicing over this quarter, and this is [indiscernible] keeping of imports over this quarter just as our focus to serve the auto chain in the region. In our expectation today, we would keep these 2 industries, automobile industry in the region added to oil and gas projects that are already sold that will continue to be served over the second quarter. So answering the question, we expect to keep this mix of the first quarter over the second quarter.

Thank you, Miguel. Marcelo, our next question with great interest is on commercial trade defense. We have Caio Ribeiro from Bank of America, Ricardo Monegaglia from Safra, Edgard de Souza from Itau, and Guilherme Nippes from XP. They ask about the processes -- antidumping processes, the quota systems in Brazil, what are the expectations of the company regarding that? How do things change considering the announcement of tariffs in the U.S. if you have any news regarding reviewing import quotas and if the quotas, the new system theoretically would end in May, if there are discussions on a potential renewal or changing the current system? And what are the next steps in this debate, if anything may be included in this debate in these expected timelines. Marcelo, please?

Thank you very much, Caio, Ricardo, Edgard, and Guilherme. No doubt, as I mentioned in the initial speech, this is the main concern topic for the second half, not only for the second half of the year. It's the industrial productive configuration, the manufacturing industry in Brazil as a whole. Because as I mentioned specifically to focus on the quota system for tariffs. It doesn't work. This system in a year has proven ineffective with no impact whatsoever. The fact that the first quarter in this year, we had 1 million tons of flat products. This is unbelievable. It's a factor of extreme concern. Our technical teams [indiscernible] carried out excellent work. They found the practice of dumping with margins of over $600 of cold-rolled and also coated steel. So there is damage that has -- so the Chinese mills are exported with negative margins. And for sure, the quota system does not work. It has to be revised. We're part of the Directive Council of Aco Brasil. And with Aco Brasil, we are showing our concern to the government, and we are talking. We have told them about this. This puts at risk the employment. This puts investment at risk, not only the steel industry, but all the value chain. Import of manufactured products to Brazil is impressive, and it has grown. There is an imbalance that has grown the commercial or the trade balance of manufactured products. We have dozens of million dollars. The growth has been exponential. And this actually goes against Brazilian employment, against the creation of value growth in an industrial society. So what we actually need are defense measures, antidumping measures. They have not been applied. The technical timelines for the antidumping measures is October this year. And the definition is to see how we reconfigure the quota tariff system. We have to move forward in a fast way in the coming weeks. As it's been mentioned in the previous questions, the deadlines are coming, and it has to be reconfigured. Only to mention, the quota tariff system impacts certain group of people. So it define certain items and certain features. And in terms of escape, there are 3 of them. So the average -- the monthly average that was coming in 2023 were 3,000 tons. These 3 [ MCMs ] that have minimal technical aspects. That's why we say they escaped. They came into the country. So we have over 50,000 tons. Well, so almost 20x higher. We need direct clear visible action of defense. All the countries are defending themselves. We don't want protection. We want defense. We cannot compete with those that export with negative margins. We cannot compete with those that apply unfair commercial practices internationally. We have ability to export, to be competitive. Our industry is competitive. We can present our products and markets in the most demanding markets on the planet, but we have to defend our land, our Brazil, with players that clearly apply unfair practices.

Thank you, Marcelo. Now we move on to a session on margins. Thiago, please. Caio Ribeiro from Bank of America asks what margin -- normalized margin you expect to attain for the Steel business and what's the timing for that? Thiago, please. You're on mute.

Sorry. Now, Caio, thank you for the question. We have talked about this previously. What we understand a sustainable EBITDA margin for the steel industry is about 50% above 15%. For an industry that requires high investment volumes to be updated constantly to move forward, well, in terms of growth and portfolio of products, et cetera. And we understand it's a margin that is totally possible to be attained by Usiminas, but we have to highlight 2 main blocks that lead to the margin. We have, obviously, the block that is internal, our cost and efficiency performance. So on this side, we know what has to be done. We know that we're going to move forward in this cost reduction over time. We have operational actions and also investments that will ensure that on this part, we have confidence that we're going to move forward to what would lead us to a margin close to the 15%. I'm not going to mention exact numbers because I don't want it to seem like a guidance or something like that. But everything that we have planned in terms of doing, in terms of operations and investments, we would be able to get the EBITDA margin to what we have attained in this quarter, 9%, some percent points above that, getting close to the 50%. But we have another factor that makes up the margin, which is market, demand and competition capability that is isonomic. Not to repeat everything that we've mentioned that Marcelo just mentioned. It's a key factor. Today, the Brazilian market is dysfunctional because we have unfair competition and prices that are not true, so to speak. For us to get to our result potential, that would be something above the 15% I've mentioned, the market aspect and this unfair competition aspect has to be addressed, okay?

Thank you, Thiago. To you, I'm going to break down into 2 topics, the cost part, Henrique Marques from Goldman Sachs and Edgard de Souza from Itau BBA. They're asking the following. In the fourth quarter, the outlook for the first quarter was a slight improvement quarter-over-quarter for due to efficiency gains. But excluding the nonrecurring one-off, your cost was practically flat. If you could give a bit more color to what happened this quarter so that we can better interpret the outlook for next quarter would be great. And Edgard adds by saying or asking precisely the same thing, but asking whether looking ahead, we should expect an increase in that line and others for historical levels. Thiago, please.

Henrique, Edgard, thank you for your question. Well, yes, in this quarter, we've had 2 one-off effects, as you mentioned, the insurance indemnity, reversal of provision. Without those effects, the reduction of our COGS would be about 1%. In this quarter, we still had an effect that was negative due to foreign exchange rate. The peak of December time that we got to BRL 6.20 impacted this quarter, Q1. And in addition, we have raw material price reduction. You can check in the market indicators that are happening, especially from February, well, price of slabs and also coke that will positively impact next quarter. Next quarter, we follow with the gains in efficiency, as we've mentioned. And possibly, we're going to have positive impacts due to the foreign exchange rate and price drop in some raw materials. We have to remember that the foreign exchange has an important part in terms of cost. All the raw materials that is consumed by Usiminas is basically related to dollars. All the raw materials received in the end of previous quarter saw the highest exchange rate in the past month. So this obviously has an impact when we look at COGS per ton for the first quarter compared to the last quarter. So the drop of the foreign exchange at BRL 570, BRL 560 that we have today still has not gone through the results. And if this trajectory drop, this tends to positively impact the next quarter.

Thank you, Thiago. We have something to add to this part. Edgard Souza from Itau. He asks whether, sorry, the better efficiency, cost reduction of raw materials should more than offset increase of this line of others that we have in the first quarter.

No, the line of others is just a simplification because there are many factors that contribute to the cost composition and all the effects are towards increase in productivity, efficiency gains or positive effects due to raw material prices. We don't expect to have a reversion of this line of others in the next quarter. So the trend tends to be of improvement at least in the next quarter.

So first, Edgard, also Ricardo Monegaglia from Safra, Stefan Weskott from Citi. They ask the following. Could you quantify cost drop per ton that we should expect in the second quarter and then until the end of the year? What lines have greatest potential for a drop compared to current levels on the expectation of lower COGS per ton? Stefan adds. Could you clarify how much of this comes from the effect of a weaker dollar and how much in the operating improvement? Thiago, please.

Ricardo, Stefan, thank you for your question. We usually define the price per ton or the increase per ton because there are many variables that impact it. We prefer to point to the direction we're following. In other words, there is still potential of cost reduction, both due to efficiency, our attaining highest level of efficiency, especially in the blast furnace 3 that follows quite stable in terms of performance and also foreign exchange rate changes without our interference. That's why we do not open this kind of detail. But looking at the changes that we've seen in the first quarter of 2025, reduction of 2% and 1% was a one-off 1% effect and the other one was due to efficiency. I'd say this level is what we can consider in terms of what we expect of reduction for the next quarter. And opening up on what happens due to the dollar exchange rate. It depends on the fluctuation of dollar over the period. Well, we can model that easily. As Miguel mentioned, 60% of our cost is based on dollar and is pegged to the dollar. So this in the midterm tends to follow the dollar exchange rate.

Thank you, Thiago. We have a question on cost that goes to Thiago and Marcelo. Igor Guedes from Genial asks how much cost reduction the PCI for the blast furnace 3 should impact it? Could it actually mean something related to third-party slabs? Thiago, please.

I'll make a brief comment and turn over to Marcelo. The cost reduction of our PCI project is important. This project will enable us to almost double the use of PCI in the blast furnaces and reduce the use of coke practically in the same proportion. Not precisely 1:1, but close to that. And so, this brings important benefit to PCI, always cheaper than coke. I wouldn't say that the PCI impact reduces the dependence on third-party slabs. Of course, the analysis of marginal cost and benefit of buying third-party slabs or producing slabs and transfer to Cubatao that has a high cost, this is an analysis that we make weekly or almost daily. So there are other factors that could also lead to production increase and reduction of acquisition of third-party slabs. And the PCI project [ furnace ] is underway, and our expectation is to complete the investment by the end of this year and start operations early next year, when we should start seeing this benefit of cost reduction. Marcelo, would you like to add?

You have been very clear. I would just like to add that the PCI project is part of the project of competitiveness improvement of the all upstream of Usiminas. We are implementing it, and it's going very well. And we are using state-of-the-art technology. Our expectation is that it could be positive and also cost reduction and increase in efficiency. The injection of this kind of coal allows us to reduce the coke costs, generating a much more efficient regime. And we are following all of that, as Thiago mentioned, late year, early next year, we should have adjustments made. We're doing the fine-tuning to start our test in the blast furnace #3.

Thank you, Marcelo, Thiago. Thiago, we have a last question on costs Guilherme Nippes from XP, asks you to comment on [ fall coke ] price acquired in the fourth quarter and price of slabs acquired in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. Please, Thiago. You're on mute.

Thank you, Guilherme, for your question. In the 2 cases, both regarding raw materials and slabs, I'm going to turn over to Miguel to comment on it. The negotiations follow market indicators. So there are indicators that are published and show the evolution of price of those materials. The case of coal and coke have a trajectory downstream or a downtrend, and this is happening. This reflects our negotiations and the price of materials acquired. Slabs follow the same dynamic, and we have been observing a major recent drop in those indicators. Miguel, if you would like to add.

The purchase of slabs is related to this international market. Obviously, with volatility and uncertainty generated by tariffs announced by the U.S. generated opportunity of buying slabs at lower price to previous quarters and this led to the appreciation of real can I say that the purchase of slabs in reais per ton has shown a drop in the previous [indiscernible].

Thank you. Thiago, we're going to go into working capital. Ricardo Monegaglia, [ Marcio Farid ] from Goldman Sachs and Rafael Barcellos ask about SG&A and working capital. And we see both increasing considerably in the first quarter '25 and can we consider that a new level? Or should we expect a normalization of both? And Rafael adds by asking if we expect cash generation in the second quarter '25. Please, Thiago.

Thank you, Ricardo, [ Henrique ], Rafael. Yes, we expect a return of this increase in working capital in the second quarter. So the share of working capital increase by accounts receivable because of higher sales, depending on the sales of June should be stable if volumes and prices are stable. We don't expect a return there. We expect a reduction of the raw material inventory and a return to the level of accounts payable with suppliers similar to what we had December last year. So we expect at least 50% of the increase of working capital that we've seen in this quarter that this should be returned in the second quarter that should generate a positive cash generation.

You mentioned second semester, but actually he is correcting himself, it was quarter. Thiago to you. We had some questions on our outlook that we shared in the release on the expectations. So Tathiane Candini from J.P., Caio Greiner from UBS. They ask, well, do you expect stability in the Steel unit and net revenue per ton that is stable and you have an expectation of drop because of the -- in the coal cost drop. Why do you expect stability in the unit and not an improvement actually? And Caio asks the same thing and why are you moving towards stability considering those moves we're talking about?

Well, good question. It's good to clarify that. The outlook actually is of stability regarding in the steel industry regarding volumes and prices, but with an expectation of cost drop that would lead to an improvement of results in the steel part, whilst in mining, we expect volumes also relatively stable, but possibly with a reduction of the result because of lower ore prices currently and future prices that we are observing. So just to clarify the outlook is this regarding results, positive both in steel side and more negative in Mining.

Now Thiago, on CapEx, we're going to have a section on CapEx. We have quite a few questions on CapEx. They asked about, our CapEx guide is BRL 1.4 billion to BRL 1.6 billion for the year. If this is maintained, you could comment on how new investments are goingin PCI, the overhaul of the cold mill and this debates for MUSA. And if the weaker CapEx this year could indicate that we are close to the lower limit of guidance that we mentioned, which is 1.4. If the expectation, Rafael adds, the expectation for second half to be more challenging, what can change in this strategy and the expectation of investments for the year? Thiago, please.

Thank you. Let me try to address all the points. First, our forecast, our plan for investments is maintained. And so our estimate for this year is still BRL 1.5 billion. With this plan, obviously, the investment pace tends to increase as of next quarter. The amount invested this quarter was below this curve. So we should have an acceleration as of next quarter. Investments at PCI, we've mentioned, I'm not going to repeat that. We talked quite a bit about that. The hot repair in the coke mill is underway. We had -- we stretched the time for the whole overhaul of the coke mill, and this impacts the disbursement over the period. So we have a lower CapEx disbursement over the period, but the overhaul is going well. We just started the part of the third group of blast furnaces that are being overhauled. With that, we gain more performance in the coke mill. Regarding MUSA, no relevant changes regarding what we have been talking about. We keep on working in this project, detailing in the engineering part, also moving on with environmental licensing that should be completed. Part of it should be completed by the end of this year. So we keep on working with a possibility of our being prepared to make a decision on investments mid next year. Obviously, if there are any changes regarding this expectation, we will communicate. But the timing or the schedule is designed in this way. With regards to the second half and how this could impact our investments, I'll comment and if Marcelo would like to add, feel free to do so. As we've mentioned, at some points, the visibility is very short term. There are a lot of uncertainties in the domestic market due to the high interest rates and how this will impact the economic activity and steel demand and when this will happen. Up to now, we follow with the quite resilient demand. But those uncertainties generated due to this trade war and tariff war of imports brings up a lot of uncertainties, possibility of trade deviation, increase in the steel import levels, not only steel, but also manufactured products. And all of this are things we are following in a very constant and close and attentive way. And any relevant impact in terms of demand will lead to the necessary actions taken by us. So far, we haven't seen that. We keep our 1.5 investment plan. But in the cyclic industry like ours, we have to be prepared to take the necessary measures to go over a more difficult period.

I would add to what Thiago said, that the structural process are -- we are moving forward. So we have PCI and the coke mill. If the measures are not taken -- effective measures are not taken to avoid subsidized steel imports, we're going to revise our investment plan in the second half. Because if those volumes are not what they are, we could be providing much more employment. We have idle capacity because we're not covering. Because we cannot compete with those that import subsidized steel. And this is our main concern. So we have to defend the Brazilian industry that is committed to the country. We pay all taxes. And now we refinance debt at market rates, as we do, as it is correct to do. But we cannot compete against those that have subsidies in all balance sheet lines. And they produce, export and sell to Brazil at cost or at prices that they cannot even cover the metal margin. So we're very concerned regarding that in short. So investment levels are maintained, but possibly we can reduce that. And this will mean slowing down the projects that are not linked to the environment. So they have total priority. But if we have import of steels at this level, so there are other projects. So we have been able to make a forecast of what imports of manufactured products and also steel. The forecast for this year is 100 million tons of steel in manufactured products. They are also Brazilian jobs. Investment of our value chain, our clients in all the value chain, if they continue importing subsidized products to Brazil, we have to revise our investment plan. This is the core topic that the whole country, the institutions, the government, the federations, we are trying to sensitize at all fronts to ensure a higher isonomy level.

Thank you, Marcelo. Our last question, we're about to end. We have a last question. Igor Guedes from Genial asks about mining, Thiago. For MUSA, we've noticed the possibility of a richer mix of iron ore that we expected. We know it's a quarter with fewer discount, but it's still possible to think about this volume of resilience with opening of new mining fronts to offset the East treatment unit more sustained with a -- mixed with greater iron content. Thiago, please.

Thank you, Igor, for your question. Yes, we actually have a more enriched ore mix because of the new mining process we started late last year in December. And this led us to make our mix to be more enriched with greater iron content and also silica. And this should be maintained in the next quarters. So we have a sale of a product that is more noble with less discount. In addition, the market discount, the percentage of market discount applied to each percentage of iron or silica has also been reduced, which has boosted this positive effect. Regarding volume, we also maintained the stability view with the East treatment plant out of operations, we were able to increase the productive level of the other plants of MUSA. And we've added certain purchase of third parties, and we should keep the stable level during the year until the return of the East plant.

Thank you, Thiago. With this, we would like to close our Q&A session. We would like to thank you all for your participation. I remind you if you have any questions, the IR team is available to serve you. We've seen that there are some questions that have not been listed here. We are available -- the whole IR team is available for any questions and everything. Thank you very much and have a good afternoon.