Valterra Platinum Limited (VAL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 24, 2025

Johannesburg Stock Exchange ZA Materials Metals and Mining investor_day 211 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Theto Maake

executive
#1

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today in person as well as online. I know I said good afternoon, but also good morning to the Americas. Many of you would know me already, but my name is Theto Maake, Head of Anglo American -- Head of Investor Relations at Anglo American Platinum. We do have a lot to cover today, so I am glad that you could join us. But before you -- we start, as you know, safety underpins everything that we do. In a similar spirit, I have been informed that there is no planned fire drill for the day. So if there is an alarm, may I request that we exit the building in a calm and orderly manner using both the doors on my left and right. There will be fire marshals who would actually take us through to our assembly point. With that said, there is actually [indiscernible] and me as well, just taking the team cautionary statement. Thank you so much -- the cautionary statement as much as I'm tempted to read it way forward, I would rather recommend that you read it in your own time. Thanks. So next, I think just going into next slide, Tim. Thanks. So agenda for today would be quite a big one. So we will start with our Chairman, being Norman Mbazima, who will take us through our key messages. And then secondly, he will hand over to our CEO, being Craig Miller and his executives, and the intention there is just to come in and speak to who we are and who we are going to be. So they will unpack our strategy, the market dynamics in which we operate under as well as our integrated value chain. All of this will actually be summarized through Sayurie just taking us through the financial position. That shows the action plans and decisive plans that we have taken has actually ensured that we can actually drive value for all our stakeholders. So at the end of each section, we will actually be catering for 20-minute breaks in between. And thereafter, there will be Q&As at the end, which is closer to the end of the day. I think what is important, we also have media in the room, but there has been some room that is set aside for media. So I am going to request that you don't necessarily ask questions and decisions as though because there will be a close section at the end. So when that is happening, the rest of us, I'm sure you're all looking forward to it. The rest of us will be having much needed refreshments while some of our executives are just having media interviews. There is a lot to unpack. I might have said a multiple. But with that said, I'm going to request that our Chairman comes on stage for an opening remark. Thank you.

Norman Mbazima

executive
#2

I'm looking around to see if I recognize anybody, and I recognize the members of the Board in front of here. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome, and thank you for your interest in our company and for attending our Capital Markets Day. I wanted to speak to you today, not about the business model, the strategy or the future performance of the company, though I would love to do that, and I can do it at length, but not today, no. I will let our CEO, Craig Miller, and his executive team do all of that. Instead, I want to tell you a little bit about how we think and work as the Board. But firstly, even before that, let's take -- talk. We are here today because the company is demerging from Anglo American. This is an exciting time for all our staff and our stakeholders and are hopeful you as current and future shareholders. The transition from having a majority shareholder to being a standalone company listed on 2 stock exchanges will, of course, impact the Board. And so we have accordingly made some changes to the Board. The 3 Anglo-American nominees to the Board, Thembinkosi, Nolitha Fakude and Matt Daley have stepped down. They have all served with distinction over the years and helped guide the company with great wisdom and skill. It has been a great pleasure working with them, so I'd like to take a moment to thank them for their invaluable contribution to the success of the company. As we're prepared to move forward as an independent company, I want to welcome Dorian Emmet, Fagmeedah Petersen-Cook and Hennie Faul to the Board. Their joining significantly adds to our Board strength and its oversight capacity and further enhances an already vastly experienced and diverse group of Directors. While the demerger means there are some changes within our organization, it is important to note that the company we've been -- as a company, we've been listed for over 30 years operating to the highest standards. This will not change for us going forward. The Board's governance structures are very well established. I've great confidence that the executive management team with the guidance of the Board will deliver on our strategy, and we will continue being a leader in the global PGM mining sphere. Collectively, this Board has tremendous knowledge experience in all elements of mining leadership and technical operations. Members of this Board have experience in the assets of this company, the PGM industry, mining in general, in a variety of commodities and sustainability, finance, commerce, risk and governance. As we embark on our journey as a fully independent company, good governance, diligent and knowledgeable oversight and a constant considered interrogation of company strategy and performance will be the hallmark of this Board. We look forward to continuing to represent the interests of the company and its shareholders. Although our name and corporate identity may be changing, there are certain parts of our DNA that will remain. We are a leading PGM producer, responsibly and safely extracting precious metals and associated byproducts from our exceptional mineral resource endowment. I want to repeat that, exceptional mineral resource endowment. The significant value that has benefited all our stakeholders over the last 5 years is testament to our commitment to our shareholders, to our employees, to host communities, to governments and to our customers. I'm particularly proud of the fact that our employees and our communities are also shareholders in our company. All these will remain deeply ingrained in our character. As you can see from this slide, we continue to make excellent progress on the demerger, and we remain on track to complete the process by early June. There are a few important upcoming dates, including the release of our prospectus for the London listing during the week of April 8. The required shareholder vote at the shareholder meeting that will take place at the time of the Anglo American PLC AGM on April 30, where its shareholders will be asked to approve the demerger and the dividend in specie to its shareholders, comprising Anglo American Platinum shares. And then our own AGM on May 8, where our new name, Valterra Platinum Limited, and consequent amendments to our memorandum of incorporation will be voted upon. We expect to start trading on the JSE under our new name in late May with the demerger and secondary listing on the LSE to follow in early June. I want to thank you again for joining us here today, and I hope that all the information we will shortly be sharing will give you great insight into the company and these exciting prospects. Let me now hand over to our CEO, Craig Miller. You may recall that Craig was appointed to this position by this Board a couple of years ago. An inspired appointment, you will agree. And this Board has fully supported the changes that Craig has made to his management team. Craig will tell you more -- much, much more about the company. Thank you very much. [Presentation]

Craig Miller

executive
#3

Thank you, Norman, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our Capital Markets Day. So building on what you've just heard from Norman, I'd like to first briefly outline what you're going to hear from us today. We're going to touch on our operating context and how we're creating lasting value for our stakeholders. You'll hear how safety and the well-being of every single one of our colleagues at Anglo American Platinum is our first priority, and there is our unrelenting commitment to achieving zero harm. As we've embarked upon the demerger process, we've worked to strengthen the capabilities within our company. This has resulted in a smaller, more focused and appropriately experienced committee, who you'll hear from and get to meet during the day. We'll also showcase our leading industry resource and how we plan to continue to contribute value from this through the consistent delivery of our operational excellence initiatives and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. And finally, we'll articulate how we are confident in the outlook for the PGMs as well as positioning ourselves to generate solid returns into the future. As you would have seen in the video, in terms of our geographic footprint, the portfolio of assets that we had -- that we have is world-leading. And we are the leader of -- we are the leading producer of PGMs and strategically focused on extracting the value out of our Tier 1 assets in Southern Africa. As a standalone company, we remain the leading precious metal miner with one of the largest endowments. Among our peers, we are the undisputed leader in the PGM's industry, leading an attributable mineral resources inclusive of mineral reserves. We have a strong track record of generating earnings on average, far exceeding those of our peers. So looking at the broader market context. The market fundamentals of supply and demand suggest upside to the current PGM basket price. In terms of existing demand, this is stronger than we had previously forecast because the demand for pure BEVs isn't growing as fast as expected, which means that the demand for PGMs in catalysts is more robust. In other areas of demand, including a wide range of industrial applications, this will continue to grow in line with GDP. And as we look further out, we also see the prospects of new demand segments to support the energy transition and the technologies addressing climate change. We reinforce our outlook that the demand for our metals is strong and it's sustainable. At the same time, we continue to see primary supply decline on the back of lower investments in existing and new assets across the sector, while secondary supply, which comes from the recycling market, continues to underdeliver against forecasts. We, therefore, believe that we will continue to be deficits in the balance between the PGM supply and demand, particularly in platinum and rhodium, which gives us the positive outlook for PGM prices. So as we go forward, we do have a differentiated value proposition. Firstly, as I've said, we have an outstanding asset base. We've been clear around the role of each asset within the portfolio and the investments that we continue to make to grow as well as sustain our asset integrity, supporting the continued delivery of steady production. In addition, our global marketing organization delivers the right solutions for our customers and helps us maximize the value potential from every single ounce that we produce. Secondly, we've got the capabilities and the discipline to make the most out of that asset base. The primary objective is to make sure that all our managed operations remain in the most competitive part of the cost curve. This sets us up for through-the-cycle profitability, realizing superior EBITDA margins. Thirdly, we bring our assets and our capabilities together with a strong balance sheet, with a clear capital allocation framework and a real discipline in how we execute that should translate into a consistent and leading shareholder returns and great prospects for all of our stakeholders. And underpinning all of this is our personal commitment to zero harm and as well as integrating sustainability into absolutely everything we do. So as I've touched on, we have the leading PGM portfolio, which Willie and Agit will unpack for you a little bit later. In short, we have mine plans that give us a clear pathway to multiple decades of production. I'm grateful we don't have the reserve replacement challenges of many of our precious metal peers and instead can focus on optimizing the full potential from our outstanding endowment. We also have a great balance. We have enough breadth in the portfolio to give us the diversification and a wide range of options to enhance value. We also have sufficient scale to drive functional excellence, and we have enough focus that we can really push hard on our operational excellence. I hope, today, we'll be able to showcase that we're more than just a mining company. Instead, we have real strength through our leading position across the value chain. There are important elements of margin and sustainable value that we generate through our well-invested processing infrastructure and by getting the right products to our customers in the most efficient way. Our marketing business gives us a real connection to our customers and also helps us to shape the demand for PGMs in a deliberate way. And so while our assets are a critical foundation for value, we also need the capabilities to deliver on the full potential from them. And in order to deliver that potential, we are absolutely focused on operational excellence. We have the team, we have the systems and the plans in place to position each one of our assets in the first half of the cost curve. In an industry that is unlikely to see significant sources of new supply and where low -- where the low-hanging fruits on costs has already been taken out, this gives us the assurance of delivering cash through the cycle. We've put in place a new organization structure, which is set up to make the most of our status as an independent company through efficient governance, clear accountability and a new level of agility. All of this sits behind our commitment to continue to deliver on our action plan, which involves a further ZAR 4 billion of cost reductions in 2025, helping us to achieve our target in getting our all-in sustaining costs across the assets below $950 per 3E ounce. I believe we've got a great team in place to deliver on those plans, and we've now embedded sustainability across the business to make sure that we work in lockstep with our stakeholders, including our primary commitment to achieving zero harm and therefore making all of this a reality. The key to this is Mogalakwena, which Willie will take you through in detail, and further optimizations from our existing downstream processing assets, which Agit will explain to you. But it's important because we want to connect the assets and the capabilities to shareholder returns, and that requires us to have a disciplined capital allocation. We have multiple options for growth, and we're committed to focusing on value, not volume, and making sure that shareholders continue to participate in the returns through the cycle. Our primary focus is on maximizing the amount of capital we have to allocate, but then being disciplined about how that allocation translates into sustainable value creation. We'll be focused on a strong balance sheet, a consistent dividend policy and disciplined about how capital beyond that gets distributed, whether it's the potential for enhancing performance from our key assets or delivering on incremental returns to shareholders. And we'll talk to you today about what some of those options are for enhancing our assets. And as we go through the process, we'll keep you informed as they evolve. Here, you can see our strategic priorities, which are the foundation of what we do. I'll now go into a little bit more detail in terms of each of those pillars. So turning to safety. Safety is personal. The drive towards zero harm remains our top priority. The loss of 3 of our colleagues at Amandelbult, Dishaba mine in workplace-related fatalities last year was tragic, and we're working hard to prevent any repeats as well as implementing the remedial actions from these incidents across our business. We truly believe that zero harm is achievable, as is demonstrated by those of our operations, who continue to be fatality free, with both Mototolo and Unki operating for more than 13 years fatality free, while Mogalakwena has operated for more than 12 years fatality free. Our injury frequency rates continue to decline with year-on-year improvements. And we're focused not only on our own employees, but those of our contractors, too. There is no room for complacency, and our commitment to safety is paramount. We believe that our focus on safety and the advancement in health and the well being of all of our colleagues will result in zero harm becoming a reality. To touch on our new operating model, excellence in leadership, it does come from our newly reconstituted executive committee and the leadership teams that we have put in place, where we are already starting to see the tangible benefits from the optimization and the project execution work streams. In the demerger process, we took the opportunity to strengthen our technical capabilities within the company. And we're also nearing the completion of the build-out of the various functional teams to replace those activities, which were previously performed by Anglo, with many of the individuals having transferred across to Anglo Platinum. Following these efforts and the restructuring, I'm confident that our new structure is fit for purpose and that the ways of working with greater accountability, clarity of expectations and agility will secure our future success. So let me also just touch on labor relations. There is an under appreciation of the stability of labor relations in South Africa's mining industry possibly because of the volatile history. But it is really important that you understand that labor relations -- the labor relations dynamics have evolved. The last 3 months -- sorry, the last 3 rounds of labor negotiations in the PGM industry have concluded without any significant disruptions, the most recent of which was the hallmark 5-year agreement, which lasts until 2027. Virginia, with support of the ExCo and the management teams at our operations is working consistently hard to ensure that the labor relations remain stable and continue to improve. So prioritizing employee well-being is more than just about safety. It's about cultivating an environment with inclusion and diversity, taking care of the communities that our employees live in and managing -- and proactively managing health, both mental and physical health, as well as deploying the necessary skills and expertise that are required for us to succeed. So let me explain what we mean when we talk about operational excellence. While our assets are obviously the critical foundation of value, being deliberate about how we maximize that value from them is equally important. We do this through our relentless focus on excellence, the prioritization of work and taking decisive action to ensure that our targets are met. The focus on improving productivity, increasing utilizations and recoveries and only focusing on value-adding work are the key drivers in shifting our assets all down -- down the all-in sustaining cost curve. All 4 of our assets are now operating in the bottom half of the cost curve. And going forward, we've set clear targets and developed plans to further optimize our cost position across the assets as well as at the corporate center, which Sayurie will unpack for you. This does begin with our additional ZAR 4 billion of cost reductions in 2025, which I mentioned. This is after we beat the ZAR 10 billion target that we set ourselves last year, exceeding that by ZAR 2 billion. I've already flagged our target is to get our all-in sustaining costs across our business to below $950 per 3E ounce. So in terms of investing in our portfolio, we want to make the most of what we think are some of the best ore bodies in the PGM industry. Our disciplined capital allocation approach ensures that we deliver maximum value from the portfolio, recognizing the role that each asset plays. So what do we mean by that? Well, at Mogalakwena, that's a key source of growth ounces, which we believe the market will need based on our forecast of market deficits in the 3E metals in the future. Willie will talk you through the optimization opportunities from the open pit as well as the underground project, which will further grow by adding lower cost ounces without major investments required in either our concentrating or in our downstream processing business. At Mototolo, we're progressing the Der Brochen development, which will contribute to replacement ounces for the near depleted Lebowa shaft at significantly lower cost. The full economic benefits of the chrome that we produce from Mototolo will also now accrue to us, which is absolutely crucial in the current chrome price environment. These 2 factors combined with the operational excellence that we -- initiatives that we continue to drive should shift Mototolo further down the cost curve. And may -- and many of you may ask why Amandelbult remains a core asset. So let me be clear, Amandelbult is a strong contributor of margins to our portfolio. And its unique cost split, the ratio between the different PGMs and the byproducts generate the highest revenue per 3E ounce in the sector and the fourth highest all-in sustaining cost margin at current PGM prices. Its extensive reserves, particularly at Dishaba means that Amandelbult has one of the longest lives amongst the Western Limb producers, allowing it to benefit from rising prices that are likely to follow when there is the closure of the shorter life shafts in the region. With the necessary experts amongst our own employees, organized labor and the regulator as well as others in the industry, we can work relentlessly to improve the safety performance at Amandelbult and ensure that the operational excellence improvements translate into tangible results. Our Unki mine in Zimbabwe is a safe, reliable and consistent performer and will continue to contribute cash -- to cash flows in the company going forward. So in terms of driving demand for our metals, our investment into growing the existing sources of demand and developing new ones is an imperative for us, as it aligns to the requirement for us to invest given the scale of the investments -- the scale of the endowment that we have, but we will be disciplined in terms of how we allocate capital into market development. So let me explain a little bit around our approach to marketing and market development. Firstly, our marketing team is not a cost center. Last year alone, the team generated about ZAR 0.5 billion from our trading activities. And one of the reasons that we can do this, despite the liquid nature of some of the metals, is that -- is our team's superior insights into market trends, given our customer connectivity. And secondly, having the longest life assets in the industry, it's crucial that we support long-term demand , so that we can continue delivering leading shareholder returns long after our peers have either shut down or substantially curtailed their volumes. Our capital allocation discipline, therefore, extends into our market development activities. And we'll invest in the future use cases because the opportunity to -- for demand growth is both achievable and it's -- as it is compelling. You could also quite easily say that our commitment to sustainability creates the demand for our product. It provides our license to operate in the communities and the jurisdictions where we operate, and it makes us better, more resilient and even more efficient operators. This is why sustainability is at the center of our strategy. It anchors our efforts to protect and to create value for all stakeholders, focusing on climate and energy challenges, building our relationships with our local communities and maintaining ethical value chains. Yvonne will provide some practical details of how we integrate sustainability into our mining operations and Agit will explain in detail our mass pull reduction strategy and how that translates into ESG benefits as well. So as I mentioned, we've reviewed and restructured our executive committee to streamline the roles and enhance the strategic -- enhance it to the strategic alignment of the company. The changes have secured a simpler, fit-for-purpose structure with clear accountability. This will enhance our operational efficiency, improve the ways of working and delivering on one of our strategic pillars, which is to strengthen our technical capabilities. The structure emphasizes our local presence here in Southern Africa and the necessary proximity to our customers in the Northern Hemisphere. The changes include the removal of the Chief Operating Officer role and the appointment of Willie Theron as Executive Head of Mining Operations. Willie rejoins us with a track record of strong delivery in terms of its projects and mining expertise. And therefore, we're looking forward to his continued contribution in really shaping Anglo American Platinum. Sayurie Naidoo is our CFO, having been with Anglo Platinum for over 8 years. Agit Singh is responsible for our processing operations with a clear focus on operational excellence and improvements. Yvonne Mfolo runs our corporate affairs and sustainability functions, while Virginia Tyobeka takes care of people and organization. Martin Poggiolini is responsible for corporate development, while Hilton Ingram looks after marketing and market development. You'll soon be hearing from all of them. And of course, you'll have the opportunity to meet them during the course of the afternoon. So in conclusion, before I hand over to Hilton and Martin to take you through the market dynamics, we firmly believe that with our strategy and the delivery thereof, we will unearth value for a better world. Thank you.

Hilton Ingram

executive
#4

Thanks very much, Craig, and hello, everyone. Martin and I are going to discuss the PGM market dynamics as we see it. Before we do that, in case you weren't aware, we mine and refine 13 products. In addition to the 5 platinum group metals, we also produce cobalts, including gold, nickel, copper, UG2 chrome concentrate, 3 sulfates and 1 rare earth metal. Of course, the PGMs as they are commonly known are at the heart of our business, accounting for 85% to 95% of revenue over the last 5 years. Platinum is the largest by volume, but due to changing prices in the last 5 years, there have been instances where palladium in 2019, rhodium in 2021 and platinum in 2024 have been the biggest contributors to our revenue. Today, I'm going to focus on the PGMs. However, it's worth noting that our co-product revenue has been growing in recent years. And when we look at the demand prospects for those metals, we see that gold is at a record high with a bullish outlook in uncertain times. Nickel's prospects are improving following recent developments that have shown that Indonesia is indeed price sensitive and continuing increases for the demand for stainless steel and, therefore, chrome and healthy demand for copper driven by the drive for electrification. These all help provide resilience against PGM price volatility and the commodity price cycle. Let's take a look now at the PGMs in more detail. Let's break down the market demand for PGMs. Investments made up around 3% of demand last year. About 5% of PGM demand came from jewelry. So this accounts for around 1/6 of platinum demand with smaller amounts of other PGMs. Just over 1/4 goes to various industrial uses, with that sector making a large proportion of platinum demand and the bulk of ruthenium and iridium. This is expected to grow over time with potential from the hydrogen economy. However, by far, the largest use at present of PGMs accounting for 66% by value and more than 80% of the demand for palladium and rhodium is the automotive sector, where they're used in emissions control catalytic converters, oxygen sensors and spark plugs. Unfortunately enough, to be invited to the supplier conferences for the world's top 3 automakers, there's 1 thing that they and their suppliers all agree on. This is a time of precedented change in the automotive industry. So today, I'm unashamedly going to give you reasons why the mood music around PGMs has changed and why we should be optimistic. Let's start with what I call the PGM automotive demand equation. Automotive demand is a function of the number of vehicles produced, the share of those vehicles that are catalyzed and the PGM loadings per vehicle across both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles. We have a positive outlook for automotive demand. Trends show that global auto demand volumes could beat consensus forecasts. Market demand still overwhelmingly favors ICE vehicles with China's BEV success unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. And finally, stricter emission standards, improved testing are likely to lead to increased loadings. I'll address these each in turn on the coming slides. Let's start with how many new cars will be bought and sold in a year. Historically, growth in global GDP has gone together with rising car sales volumes. As you can see, the chart includes a rather conservative line, which indicates what would happen if the trend continued to hold into the future. However, consensus forecasts imply an inflection point has been reached and that, that age old relationship will no longer hold. Now sudden divergence from long-term trends do happen. But really, we're entitled to be skeptical. So we've asked the forecasters about the change. Is it because of mobility as a service? No, came the response. We are through the hype cycle on mobility as a service, and several providers have gone bankrupt, and only the successful few will remain. Is it self-driving vehicles? Nope, they said. These are still too far off to be affecting the forecast. So what is changing? They attribute it to our changing relationship with cars due to urbanization, public transport and affordability. But that view assumes people buy cars purely for the utility of going from A to B. I'm not sure we do. If you've grown up poor, you know that cars represent more than just transport. They represent freedom and status. Our world is much bigger with a car. You have the freedom to go where you want when you want it. It's also a potent status symbol. Drive through the suburbs of Johannesburg today and you'll see cars in the driveway that are worth more than the homes they park in front of. The role of freedom and status hold true in America, to the cities of Europe, to the informal settlements of Africa and India. I find it hard to believe that people are not going to opt for freedom and status as soon as they can afford it. So that leaves affordability, right? Here, I say where there is demand, China will find a cost-effective way of filling it. While import duties still keeping their BEVs out of the U.S.A. and Europe, they are beginning to export plug-in hybrids to both countries. And 80% of China's vehicle exports in 2024 were ICE vehicles. If that relationship between GDP and vehicle demand continues to hold, you'll see 10 million more cars sold in 2030 than currently forecast. That's 1 million ounces more PGM demand, even allowing that a few of them will be BEVs. So this brings us to the next factor in the equation, the share of catalyzed vehicles. It's important to note that for all the publicity, market demand is still overwhelmingly favors ICE vehicles, with BEVs only having a small share of total car sales. In the established markets of the U.S.A., Western Europe, Japan and so on, BEVs had just a 10% market share last year, barely higher than in 2023. In emerging markets outside China, it's just 3%. But at some point out, in China, it was 1/4 of new car sales and growing. So they implied that this is the path that other markets will soon take. In truth, it seems plausible that China's rapid BEV adoption might be an outlier. As China is different, it has limited historical experience with ICE vehicle ownership and less affinity with ICE vehicles. Its state has the capacity to make huge ahead of time investments in grid and charging infrastructure. It has high levels of urbanization and comprehensive and cheap high-speed rail networks. However, even in China, with all of those advantages, pure electric vehicles aren't for everyone. Range anxiety is real. Just look at how plug-in hybrids and extended range vehicles, which both need PGM catalysts, gained market share in recent years as customers looked for longer range and manufacturers cheaper costs. Given a choice, customers want the freedom to refuel or recharge. It's no wonder then that global BEV penetration forecasts, while still rising, have been revised lower. If we compare consensus forecast now to a year ago, the share expected to be BEV by 2030 has come down from 40% to just 33%. That equates to an additional 1 million ounces of PGM demand forecast as of 2030. Now numerous headwinds to BEV growth have been seen, such as the slow rollout of charging infrastructure, high purchase and insurance costs, uncertain resale values and, more recently, political issues such as tariffs and subsidy cuts. Given this, our BEV forecast is possibly still optimistic. We've plotted a straight line through the existing data points and extrapolated that forward to 2030, and it implies a market share of 25%. That accounts for a further 1 million ounces improvement in PGM demand. Of course, we're not dismissive of the prospects for BEVs. We just believe that catalyzed vehicles will have a greater market share for longer. So right, let's get on to the last factor in the equation. How much PGMs is on those cars that still have catalytic converters, known more commonly as loadings? We've long known that PGM loadings are a tug of war between the automaker's desire for technology driven cost savings versus the need to meet steadily more strict emissions regulations. But just as important over the last decade or so has been the accuracy of testing with realistic test cycles and real-world emissions testing. In the U.S.A. in the last few years, we've seen steadily rising loadings as emission standards have been tightened. In Europe, they rose when Euro 6d was introduced and have remained at relatively high levels since. In China, where after a substantial increase when China 6 was introduced, loadings have fallen in recent years. Now there are mix effects in there. As a greater proportion of vehicles have been exported to lower loaded countries and differences in China's cold start requirements, but the thrifting process might have gone too far. On the right-hand side is an except from a recently published consultation document by China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment, proposing amendments to China 6 emission standards. Notably, the Chinese authorities acknowledge deficiencies in the standard and how it has been tested. Interestingly, the expression defeat device is prominent, clearly signaling an intention to address any weakness. In the weeks since the publication, we've seen some 70 testing stations fined for not adhering to those standards. In China, business responds quickly to changes in legislation and enforcement. If Chinese loadings rose by just 0.5 gram per domestically sold light vehicle, a small part of the gap with Europe, that would be an additional 300,000 ounces of PGM demand per year. So there are clear reasons across the equation to be more optimistic than consensus in automotive demand. What are the other demand users? PGMs don't just go into automotive applications. Indeed, 2 in every 5 ounces find other homes. So industrial demand is a broad church. It has a collection of hundreds of other users taking account of the diversified qualities of PGMs to drive modern life as we know it. Key uses include process catalysts to make a wide variety of chemicals, to hard drives that underpin the Internet and AI, to manufacturing fiber glass for wind turbines and copper foil for lithium batteries. The prospects for PGM demand in existing applications are good with key drivers being continued growth, rising middle class, capital expenditure and technological shifts. But the most exciting developments will surely be in new applications. We see large potential in the hydrogen economy, sustainable aviation, e-fuels, carbon-neutral feedstocks and AI and cloud computing. And while most PGM industrial uses are naturally price insensitive, new opportunities are likely to come from economics-led PGM innovation. There are 9 million ounces of gold that go into industrial applications in a year. If we can substitute PGMs into 11 of those -- 11% of those, that's an additional 1 million ounces of PGM demand. In a world where climate change and energy efficiencies are the defining challenges of our time. There will always be a need for the ingredients that enable reactions to take place at lower temperatures, lower pressures and lower costs. And last but not least, let's take a look at the jewelry markets. In China, falling luxury spend, its investment-led approach to jewelry buying and rising gold prices have adversely impacted platinum jewelry sales. That's put pressure on global jewelry sales. However, this has marked an impressive increase at a 5% compound annual growth per annum since 2010 in jewelry demand in other key markets, such as the U.S.A. and increasingly India. There remain many challenges, but it's heartening to see 2024 seems to have been a turning point in the sector's fortunes, with gold now 3x as expensive as platinum, the biggest gap since 1900. We see great opportunities here to regain market share from white gold, which ironically was invented as a cheaper alternative to platinum. If we can regain as little of -- as 10% of white gold sales, that's an additional 1.5 million ounces of platinum demand. So we've reached the end of my section on demand. And hopefully, you've taken 4 things away from your time with me -- or my time with you anyway. There is upside to consensus vehicle sales forecasts. There are signs that catalyzed vehicles will retain a greater market share for longer. Enhanced testing in China presents upside in vehicle loadings, that the industrial and jewelry markets are healthy with a number of upside prospects, including the price disparity with gold. With that, I'll now hand you over to Martin who will talk you through the supply side dynamics. Martin?

Martin Poggiolini

executive
#5

Thanks very much, Hilton. I know you've all been sitting for some time now, and rest assured after my section we'll break -- have a short break. Hilton flagged that I'm to talk to you about supply. Now this is just as import in considering the PGM price dynamics in the future, factors that present both challenges and opportunities in the years ahead. Firstly, supply is tightening, which presents both risks and upside, making it all the more important which mining assets you have in your portfolio. That's why we've positioned our assets to capture value across all market conditions, regardless of the macro environment. At the same time, for new supply to come online, prices must rise to levels that justify reinvestment. However, price alone is not enough. The position on the cost curve is equally critical. To remain competitive and maximize returns, we must firmly be in the first half of the cost curve. This ensures that we can generate strong margins even in weak price environment, while continuing to reinvest in our business. Our understanding of these markets, whether it's declining supply, the incentive for new production and the cost curve position allows us to think through our strategic priorities and allocate capital to navigate cycles effectively and drive long-term value creation. It is important to recognize the concentration of PGM resources and the impact that this has on supply dynamics. Just less than 80% of the world's PGM reserves are located in Southern Africa, cementing the region's role as a dominant supplier of these critical metals. This concentration, again, presents both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, it reinforces South Africa's strategic importance in the global PGM market. At around 30% of resources, this confirms Anglo American Platinum's value proposition as a reliable supplier to customers. On the other hand, it means that supply dynamics are shaped by regional factors, including regulatory shifts, infrastructure constraints and geopolitical uncertainties. With our leading operational footprint and access to large, high-quality reserves, we are well positioned to leverage the advantages of this resource base, while actively managing potential risks. As you heard from Craig, our focus remains on operational excellence, sustainability and maintaining our cost competitiveness, ensuring that we capture long-term value in this evolving landscape. Historically, industry forecasts have overstated the growth of mine PGM supply. Many projections failed to fully account for the real complexities that limit supply growth, including economic constraints, sustainability requirements and access to critical infrastructure. As a result, supply expectation have often formed being overly optimistic, not fully reflecting challenges facing this industry and mining just in general. In response to the current PGM price environment, most producers, particularly in Southern and Northern -- North America, have again started to take action. Many have implemented cost-cutting measures, preserve cash and, more importantly, reduce capital expenditure, making it less likely that depleting mines will be replaced in the near term. The result is a structurally lower long-term supply market. While this should ultimately lead to higher prices, they incentivize new investment. The long lead times required for project development mean that there will be no meaningful supplier response in the medium term. Ultimately, a more balanced and realistic view of future supply is critical. By recognizing the real constraints on future supply, we can better understand market dynamics to ensure the long-term sustainability of PGM production. In recent years, the PGM industry has undergone fundamental shifts. Over the past decade, capital investment in new supply was minimal. Instead of expansion, we have seen significant number of operations being placed on care and maintenance. This contrast to the early 2000s, where the strategies were positioned around anticipated growth in demand, which led to the development of 14 brand-new mines to around 2011, many of which of those assets are not producing today, and a number of these mines that are producing are now aging and will require capital investment to extend their lives. Rather than deploying cash earned to recapitalize mines during the cyclical record highs we saw in prices around 2018 through to '22, we saw industry players invest in consolidation in the industry and even allocate capital outside of PGMs. Unlike our competitors, Anglo American Platinum, we balanced our capital allocation between reinvestment in our business and distribution to shareholders. While previous high prices strengthened balance sheets and rewarded investors, they came at a cost, and that cost was a decline in new supply growth. Of the projects that were announced back in 2012, only 2 of those mines remain in production today, underscoring the challenges of bringing new supply online. At the same time, the closure of unprofitable mines and the lack of reinvestment in depleting assets mean that primary supply is expected to decline by as much as 16% by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, as you heard from Hilton, demand has and will remain resilient -- more resilient than forecast, increasing the likelihood of future supply constraints. As we navigate this evolving landscape, we must strike the right balance between shareholder returns and capital investments, ensuring that we remain competitive today while securing production to meet market needs in the future. I want to touch just briefly on secondary supply. Recycled PGMs will continue to play an important role in meeting demand, but they remain a small contributor relative to other metals. For example, the last 2 years, open loop recycling accounted for less than 20% of global supply, which was primarily resourced from catalytic converters. However, this is well below the levels we're seeing in base metals. For example, recycled copper makes up to 32% of global supply in 2024. Historically, industry forecasts have overestimated the rate and scale of recycled PGM supply, often failing to fully account for the constraints, including economics of the vehicle scrapping value chain, tightening sustainability regulations and even just refining capacity. As shown on the right-hand side, research analysts have consistently overstated recycle of PGM supply, reinforcing the need for a more realistic view of the rate of growth in recycling into the future. We all know that platinum, palladium and rhodium are currently in deficits, and having taken into account the points that have been made by Hilton in our outlook for demand, the upside we see across all demand segments, together with the fact that we believe that the trend -- or supply will trend below market expectation, we expect that these deficits will continue into the medium term. While the extent of the deficit of each metal may vary, we need to bear in mind the cross substitution that exists between these metals. We remain extremely positive on the fundamentals for the industry. But let me turn right at this point to the next item that is just as extremely important when considering which companies will be able to deliver outperformance versus the industry, and that is the industry cost curve. The PGM cost curve of primary producers includes both all-in costs and sustaining capital per mine, and we presented in the red line the revenue across the industry. Based on this -- the graph is based on external perspective by metal focus using published financial results. Most importantly, you'll see that our wholly owned mining operations sit within the first half of the cost curve. This strategic cost positioning provides us the advantage during current weak prices and the ability to outperform versus peers when prices begin to improve. It is also important that we recognize that not all PGM production is equal. Different reef types drive different baskets of revenue, and the PGM composition specifically impacts overall profitability. This becomes apparent when you compare different assets across the industry, as can be seen by the jagged nature of the red line. For example, some reefs have higher concentration of platinum and rhodium, which currently trades at a higher price compared to that of palladium. As a result, fluctuations in metal price impact cash flows and margins differently, with some operations benefiting more than others depending on market conditions. Understanding these variations in metal prices and baskets of revenue allows us to optimize our portfolio and ensure that we maximize value across our operations. Going forward, our strategy remains focused on leveraging the diversity of our assets and maintaining operational flexibility, which will allow us to adapt to market cycles and drive sustained value. So lastly, before I conclude, let me say something on price. Given good fundamentals we've just outlined, you have to ask the question to them why has price declined over the last couple of years. We believe that it's predominantly driven by market sentiment and short-term macroeconomic factors, and that only a small proportion of price decreases can be attributed to actual changes in PGM demand and supply specifics. We are confident that fundamentals ultimately determine long-term price. If we just look at rhodium's recent price rally, it is clear that supply tightness drives price. No doubt, a key challenge facing PGM producers today is the growing imbalance between production cost and CapEx to sustain or develop new mines and the price we received for our metals. The investment required to sustain current production levels, let alone develop new ones, demands a significantly higher price. To put this into perspective, in 2024, the industry's weighted average cost of all-in sustaining cost was around $1,117 per ounce. At the same time, spot prices were $1,164. At that -- with that equation, 40% of the industry is cash loss-making. These narrow margins highlight weak cash flow generation, making it clear that returns at current price is unsustainable. For long-term supply to be viable, prices will need to adjust. Looking at the bigger picture, we believe, just like any other commodity, including PGMs, the industry needs to earn a return -- a sufficient return for us to invest in capital. However, both current and spot price -- or current spot prices and consensus prices suggest our an unsustainable near 0 return on capital. Historically, capital employed for the industry has been on average between 10% and 20%. As can be seen on the bottom right-hand graph, the implied price level required to resale -- historical return on capital employed is significantly above the current spot prices, around $1,200, this despite the recent rally in rhodium. And as such, we expect supply to remain constrained until we see meaningful price recovery. So in summary, while demand drivers remain uncertain, there is reason to be optimistic as vehicle sales trend back to historical levels. Battery electric vehicle adoption progresses more slowly than previously expected. And at the same time, primary and secondary supply will likely remain constrained as ongoing uncertainty and lack of investment inhibits growth. In the near term, cost competitiveness will remain the key differentiator as producers navigate suppressed pricing while positioning for long-term recovery and value creation. With that, I thank you for your patience, and I'll be handing you back to Theto to talk through the breaks.

Theto Maake

executive
#6

Thank you for that, Norman, Craig, Hilton and Martin. I think I did tell you that my job today is super simple, one of them just being to announce when the breaks are. But even with that, Martin almost took my job. So I don't know what I'm actually left with. So with that said, for the team that actually joined a bit later, I did allude to one -- a couple of things. There will be -- actually, the session today is being streamed, and we will provide details of that on our website in the next day or so. Two, there will be Q&As at the end of the third session. So for anyone with questions online, I think you can already start putting those across as well, so that we can actually facilitate that at the end. Importantly, the media session as well, there will be that outside session coming through. So all media questions will be handled outside of this forum. So with that said, we are then going to go into a break now for 20 minutes for a bit of a leg stretch, bathroom break, teas and coffee and so forth. So if I may request that you are back here at 5 past 2:00, so that we can actually commence with the next session. Thank you so much. [Break]

Willie Theron

executive
#7

Good afternoon, and welcome back. As you've seen earlier, our portfolio is truly world-class. The scale and geographic spread gives us option, unmatched optionality, ensuring we can optimize our value chain throughput by blending ore at various stages. Our mining operations are supported by integrated processing facilities, where ore is concentrated on site before moving through smelting and refining allowing us to capture full value from mine to market. And with our dedicated marketing teams, positioned in key global trading ops, we maintain our direct access to major markets ensuring we can serve our customer needs optimally. Our mining portfolio is diverse and positioned to drive sustained value. Mogalakwena is our cornerstone of our operations. It benefits from a base metal-rich platinum ore body with the even platinum palladium prill split, delivering a balanced exposure to key metals in the PGM basket. The rich base metal content provides also significant smelting efficiencies across our processing network. Amandelbult is an anchor cash generator, supported by higher grade platinum and rhodium heavy prill split that strengthens portfolio diversification. Additionally, the UG2 reef generates valuable chrome revenue, which has proved a natural revenue benefit in the current PGM environment. Mototolo and Modikwa JV located on the eastern limb being both geographic and operational diversification, ensuring greater portfolio flexibility. And meanwhile, our mechanized Unki mine in Zimbabwe continues to deliver strong cash flow underpinned by its base metal rich grade ore body. All from Unki smelted in country before being integrated in our refining operations in South Africa, ensuring seamless processing efficiency. Looking at Mogalakwena, it's truly a world-class asset. It's also the largest contributor to our portfolio. It has a reserve life of more than 80 years securing production for generations to come. Just to note, in the last 30 years of open pit mining at Mogalakwena, we only just touched 14% of the ore. And that's in comparison to the available reserves still left. It's a mine with an industry-leading PGM ounce production profile and as a mining right covering a massive 372 square kilometers. For our British and American friends, that's around 143 square miles. Beyond the open pit, Mogalakwena presents significant long-term growth optionality. Our exploration declines are advancing, allowing us the potential for underground mining while maintaining the flexibility to adapt to market conditions. This work ensures we can unlock additional value from higher grade ore while retaining the ability to blend ore sources sufficiently further strengthening Mogalakwena's position as a low-cost, high-margin operation. With that, I invite you to enjoy the following video. [Presentation]

Willie Theron

executive
#8

As you've just seen, the underground opportunity at Mogalakwena extends well beyond the open pits. While our current focus is on the Sandsloot as the highest value start opportunity, the long-term optionality remains significant across the broader ore body. As a point of reference, Ivanhoe's Platreef project begins at depths below what you've seen on screen, highlighting the scale of the resource and the potential that exists at Mogalakwena. Mogalakwena's declared reserve specifically larger than some of its peers [indiscernible] to resources. And why is that important? Because for a resource to be declared a reserve, an improved mine plan needs to be done, which is both capitalized and costed. The Sandsloot underground reef grade is also the highest of all the mechanized PGM assets in South Africa. When you look at operational excellence initiatives, it has truly strengthened Mogalakwena's all-in sustaining cost position, reinforcing its resilience across the price cycles. This remains a key competitive advantage, ensuring that Mogalakwena continues to generate strong margins regardless of the macro PGM environment. The pit optimization work focused on adjusting the mine sequence to mine further north, which enables us to target lower strip ratios by mining less waste and reduce ore sterilizing while allowing early exposure of the high-grade and medium-grade ore. The ore roads were optimized to allow for improved hauling distances, significantly reducing hauling costs and cycle times and realizing savings of about 15% on a rand per tonne basis. We are also in the process of activating the Northwest Rock dump that will have a further 27% improvement on hauling and efficiency costs -- efficiencies and thus associated costs. Other key areas include refinement of best practice principles, focusing on quality over speed of drilling and charging practices associated with blasting as well as strategic and tactical dewatering initiatives. Our 2 on-site concentrators have a combined capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum, providing efficient and stable processing. We are comfortable with this remaining our throughput constraint as we prioritize value over volume, enduring a disciplined and profitable production profile. What we are doing at Mogalakwena is a great example of our value over volume approach. We intend to mine volumes of 90 million to 120 million tonnes per annum, achieving a lower associated stripping ratio of between 4.5 and 6.7 and the full year blended grade of between 2.7 and 3 grams per tonne. This maintains our guided meeting [ con ] production range of approximately 1 million ounces, further driving lower all-in sustaining cost of between $900 to $950 per 3E ounce which further improves Mogalakwena's position on the cost curve. We are confident that this can be maintained for at least the next decade without major capital investment. At the same time, we continue to assess underground optionality with exploration declines and feasibility studies progressing at the inactive Sandsloot pit and this is without causing any disruption to the current open pit operations located further to the north. Higher-grade underground ore present an exciting opportunity enabling us to balance the high grade ore with a lower grade and thus feed that through the 2 concentrators. This provides us with 2 key strategic advantages. Firstly, we unlock additional ounces by blending higher grade underground ore with the lower-grade open pit ore without adding additional concentrate capacity. And then secondly, it can lead to an additional 10% of ounces. Apologies for that, 10% of ounces additional on the Sandsloot and as Sandsloot underground ramps up and also can be as high as 50%, depending on our investment decision at that time. Secondly, further lowering all-in sustaining costs and maintaining our H1 cost curve position with a benefit of between 10% and 20%. The exploration declines at Sandsloot have reached the reef intersection, making an important milestone assessing Mogalakwena's underground potential. In addition, we are actively progressing exploration drilling work from the exploration decline excavations for improved understanding of the ore body informing the feasibility studies. As part of this process, we plan to mine a decent sample size of ore that's representative enough to inform a bulk sample that can be processed through our concentrators, allowing enough feed to process for a number of days continuously to be able to validate with a high level of confidence ore characteristics and associated recoveries. We are targeting a bulk sample of approximately 100,000 tonnes of underground ore. And when we get to this, we can get to the next step, which is trial mining. We envisage a long-haul open stoping mining method, similar in nature to other massive ore body type deposits in the world. Long-haul open stoping is a highly selective and productive mining method. It involves drilling long-hauls into the ore body and then blasting to create stopes, which are large open spaces. The method is sufficient for varying ore thicknesses and dips. It allows for high extraction rates that can be adjusted to accommodate changes in ore body geometry. Additionally, it minimizes the need for manual labor within the stope enhancing safety and productivity. But this has, however, not been done in the South African PGM mining region and is crucial -- and the trial mining is really a crucial step to ensure the validation of our input as well as our output parameters can be applied within our feasibility studies. It additionally allows us for sufficient time to train up required skills to be capable and competent and to create a baseline how we move forward optimally within the underground options. Our feasibility study is expected to be completed in 2027 for the Phase 1, at which point we will make a decision on whether to ramp up mining operations from underground. Initially, this involves a load to all base operation at about 2 million tonnes per annum. Note that this level of production is less capital intensive as opposed to what will be required for a 4 million tonne per annum operation. All of this will also lead to increased ounces with the all-in sustaining cost benefit. The potential to scale up to a 4 million tonne per annum is through the establishment of infrastructure that enables conveyor belt systems, which will inform a relatively higher capital requirement as compared to the trucking option. There's a lot of full potential, and this is what the number C on the slide shows that in that time, we can even get up to 5 million tonnes per annum. But both these decision points are subject to our capital allocation framework and associated investment decision hurdles. The long-term capital profile will ultimately be shaped by decisions we take over the next decade. Sayurie will unpack some further detail on how our capital outlook will look further on. Coming to Amandelbult, it's still the second largest operation and continues to be a key cash flow contributor. The operation consists of 2 modernized vertical conventional mining shafts, namely Tumela and Dishaba. It still has a significant resource life. While we have explored greater mechanization in the past, the reef dictates. The geology in the reef dictates. And we see with that, that conventional mining remains the most effective extraction method. Conventional mining is a labor-intensive mining method with a higher inherent risk exposure compared to mechanized or open pit mining and safety thus remains a nonnegotiable priority. Also at this particular juncture, I just want to highlight that in late February, Amandelbult did experience -- the whole area did experience more than 200 millimeters of rainfall in 48 hours, causing widespread flooding in the area. We activated our emergency preparedness and business continuity plans at some of our infrastructure, including Tumela lower flooded. This ensured -- our whole approach to this ensured that all employees were safely removed from underground without any injuries or incidents. Dishaba mine and Tumela Upper are still -- are back in production with Tumela Lower currently being dewatered. A detailed technical assessment of the impact of the flooding and the remedial actions necessary and the pathway to restore safe production at Tumela Lower is currently underway. Amandelbult boast a high-quality ore body, not all bodies -- all ore bodies is the same. And this is by delivering the highest ounce per square meter mined in our underground portfolio, well above other mining regions. In addition, its greater exposure to platinum rhodium, compounded by the high chrome content on the UG2 reef sets us apart in the sector in terms of revenue per ounce contribution. Amandelbult's unique pro split of platinum and rhodium presents a compelling upside. Our market cycles -- past market cycles, this mix has driven strong earnings with rhodium contributing significantly in 2021 and chrome currently providing support amid softer PGM prices. Relative to peers, it has the longest life on the Western limb. And we are now beginning this life extension studies beyond the current mining profiles to ensure that Amandelbult can continue to be positioned and to capture future price recovery and continue delivering strong cash flows well into the future. Under current life of mine plans, we anticipate a gradual decline in production from the existing Tumela operation. The life extension studies are in 2 key areas, namely Tumela and the Central complex. These studies will help us determine the optimal path forward to sustain production and to extend the mine's cash contribution. Looking at Mototolo, the operation is a bord and pillar mining method, and we've seen on the contribution that is a significant denominator as well in the portfolio. Also important is that it has -- it's mining the UG2 reef and similar to Amandelbult, it has a high chrome content. The Mototolo shafts, namely Borwa and Lebowa are heading towards the end of their operational life and the Der Brochen project is basically the replacement project to commence the transition of the mining from the old Lebowa shaft across to the Der Brochen mine and later on also the Borwa shaft. The Der Brochen extension continues to make strong progress. Our teams are focused on ensuring smooth ramp-up, maintaining operational stability and efficiency throughout the transition. We intentionally constrained the production profile to ensure that -- from Der Brochen to match concentrator capacity as we prioritize efficiency and margin over volume. In August 2024, we successfully began operating the chrome plant and selling 100% of its production at market-related prices. Chrome production from Mototolo was about 52,000 tonnes for 2024. And now you'll see the full year of that being impacted and both benefiting the all-in sustaining cost and revenue streams as well. With that, I'll now hand you over to Agit, who will take you through our processing operations and the opportunities we are unlocking this part of the world. Thanks.

Agit Singh

executive
#9

Thank you, Willie, and good afternoon, everyone. It is clear from what Willie has just presented that we really do have best-in-class mining assets. Now I'm going to talk you through how they are backed up by world-class processing assets. But first, I really want you to understand what we do in processing. We start with the ore that Willie and his team have mined, which contains only a few grams per tonne of PGMs that is delivered to our concentrators. Through a series of crushing, milling and flotation stages at our 7 concentrators, we upgrade these metals into higher-grade product ready for smelting. Also, we have 3 chrome plants across our portfolio. Mass pull is a critical factor in this process. By optimizing it, we ensure maximum metal recovery, lower energy consumption and reduced waste, improving both efficiency and sustainability. At our 5 smelting operations, and our converter plant, we produce a PGM-rich met, which is then sent to our 2 refineries. Using advanced hydrometallurgical processes, we upgrade this metal to an ultra-pure 99.99% refined PGM product ready for global markets. This process I just talked through, is possible because we are a fully integrated PGM producer with the largest processing facilities in Southern Africa. Our vertically integrated processing assets enable us to control every stage of production, which allows the highest standards of quality and product delivery to the market. Our full processing value chain from concentrators to refined metal gives us a significant competitive advantage. As an engineer, you won't be surprised to hear that the processing value chain really, really excites me. We're able to use the fundamentals of minerals processing in our concentrators to upgrade the feed by up to 30x. Our smelting operations are the most unique in the world operating at temperatures of approximately 1,600 degrees centigrade. Now you won't find furnaces that can do this in most parts of the world. Our base metal and precious metal refineries are chemistry sets on steroids. A dream come true for chemists and chemical engineers. Here, we use chemical and physical properties of the base metals and PGMs to extract and refine to the highest metal purities in the industry. You may not realize it, but in our processing business, we have more than 400 critical steps and we're optimizing each one of these. This is what gets us excited every single day. Our full processing value chain from concentrators to refined metal gives us this competitive advantage. We have all the pieces of the PGM value puzzle. On the next slide, I will go into a lot more detail around why these processing assets give us a strategic advantage in the industry. We process ores from various Southern African reefs due to our broad range of geographical locations. This diversity allows us to continuously improve our knowledge of how to process varying ore types and optimize our process to get the most value from the ore we mine. This ore variability gives us the option to blend the different ore types to optimize smelter efficiency. At our Mogalakwena concentrator, we can process all the PGMs as well as a heavy base metal loading. For an engineer, this is really, really exciting. And if you let me corner you over canopies later on, I will explain at length just how exciting this is. Our smelting assets allow us to extract metal with maximum efficiency while upholding excellent environmental standards. These smelting operations offer significant flexibility in terms of geographical diversification with a broad footprint serving multiple regions. In particular, the converter plant enhances our process by providing significant base metal throughput, which is particularly advantageous when processing Platreef ore and grade type concentrates. Additionally, it can process solid matte feeds from third parties. Matte is a metal sulfide phase formed during the smelting process that contains large amounts of PGMs and base metals. Simply put, it's a ready-mix, high PGM and base metal cocktail that we need to deconstruct at our smelting -- at our refineries. Our smelting flow sheet is designed for benchmark metal recoveries, ensuring optimal performance. The installed smelting footprint we have developed would be highly capital intensive for others to replicate with an estimated value in the order of ZAR 70 billion to ZAR 90 billion. Put differently, we have already built and paid for smelters. So any competitor who wants to replace this capacity will need to deploy a lot of new capital. Our refineries provide us with significant optionality to optimize, adapt and meet changing market demand. Our advanced refining technologies ensure we meet the highest purity standards, which provides us with the flexibility to serve premium markets that demand superior quality. This flexibility, vertical integration and quality outputs mean we can secure higher margins. We also have the largest base metal capacity in the industry, enabling us to efficiently process Platreef ore. We can process base metals and precious metals in parallel due to the slow cooling of the matte at our converter plant, which enables the upfront and bulk separation of PGMs from base metals at our magnetic concentrator plant. This parallel processing reduces pipelines and improves efficiencies. A PGM processing value chain is categorized by high capital intensity and replacement costs. Because our processing value chain is well capitalized, it allows us to further flexibility to optimize the balance between own production and third-party material. Setting up downstream smelting and refining would be a challenge for new entrants. However, we can structure and manage purchases to support our processing strategy. Currently, approximately 40% of our concentrate volumes are derived from third parties. This demonstrates the flexibility we have, allowing us to tailor our purchases of concentrate to drive value creation for the processing assets. We have created further optionality through our low mass full strategy. This strategic shift allows us to cost effectively repurpose the Mortimer smelter for slag cleaning duty, thus creating a valuable opportunity to unlock additional value. Our vertically integrated processing value chain, together with our leading processing footprint delivers real value. Okay. This slide is a really important part of processing that I want you to take away today. We operate and maintain the largest fleet of primary smelting furnaces for PGM concentrate. We also have the largest installed furnace capacity in the industry, totaling 183 megawatts. Really important, we have been processing Platreef type concentrate since the mid-1990s, the only company that is doing this and our extensive experience and advanced technology in handling Platreef concentrate is a key differentiator from our competitors. We have done a huge amount of work to optimize our smelting operations, where we have high utilization of available capacity. This means that instead of running more furnaces, we are running fewer furnaces more efficiently. Our furnace operating philosophy backed by a robust rebuild program has given us absolute confidence in the strategy. I'll explain more about this later on. When combined with concentrated improvements on mass pulls and reconfiguring smelting for further efficiencies and recovery improvements, we have significantly enhanced our operational capabilities. Our advanced refining technologies enable exceptional recovery rates as we turn concentrate into final state refined metals. We have ample capacity in our refining facilities, which is critical as the industry has very limited surplus base metal capacity, as you can see in the graph of nickel production in the industry from 2021 to 2024. With our significant base metal capacity, we are well positioned to process the high base metal ore types like Platreef from Mogalakwena. Now that we have covered our position as the largest PGM processing facility, I would like to highlight the strategic advantage of our processing capacity gives us. Okay. Now I'm going to take you through what our processing division have unlocked for our business already and our future plans. Our processing value chain unlocks our own margins, delivering more than 17 percentage points of additional EBITDA margin. Crucially, the benefit we get from operating our own fully integrated process is that we generate much higher value by processing our own mine volumes compared to third-party concentrate. We will continue with our operational excellence program to drive further value at our concentrators. We have already achieved high margins. With the improving recovery, mass pull and Chrome Hills, we intend to deliver a further 2 to 5 percentage point improvements in recoveries in the next 3 years. Our mass pull strategy aims to deliver an improvement of 0.5 to 2 percentage points. This improvement equates to reducing our mass pulls by 35% to 40% at Mogalakwena concentrator and 30% to 35% at Amandelbult. We also aim to deliver a further 6 to 8 percentage point improvement in Chrome Hills from our UG2 concentrators at Amandelbult, Mototolo and Modikwa. We announced in 2024 that we will become a low mass pull producer of Platreef ore. The next slide speaks to what exactly this means. Okay. So I'm going to try and make all of you experts mass pull today. At the most basic level, this slide is telling us is that with the new strategy, we are producing higher grades of PGMs with less volume of concentrate with all the handling benefits that it entails. But before I tell you how this works, I would also like to provide some context on our journey. Historically, the mass pull from our Platreef ore at Mogalakwena has been higher than that from UG2 ore due to the significantly different properties. Conventional techniques for mass pull reduction on UG2 ore types have proven ineffective on complex Platreef ores. We explored alternative technologies and ultimately settled on using Jameson Cells. The Jameson Cell is a high-intensity froth flotation cell that allows us to more selectively recover our metals from Platreef ore bodies. There's a lot that sits behind this. So again, I'm happy to pick this up during the break. To explain the mass pull strategy at Mogalakwena North concentrator, let's assume that we feed 14 million tonnes per annum of grade at 2.7 grams per tonne. At a mass pull of 3.5%, we will produce 490,000 tonnes of concentrate and 950,000 ounces of PGMs at a concentrate grade of 60 grams per tonne. At a lower mass pull of 2.7% for the same feed conditions, we will produce 378,000 tonnes of concentrate at a grade of 78 grams per tonne while maintaining the PGM ounces at 950,000 ounces. It is important to note that the low mass pull strategy at Mogalakwena will not reduce PGM ounces produced. Rather, it allows us to achieve approximately 30% improvement in concentrate grade at Mogalakwena North concentrator with an upgrade ratio of approximately 30 versus 22 flotation tanks cells. This translates to a 20% reduction in material handling and logistics, which roughly translates to a reduction of 5,000 trucks per annum. The lower concentrate volume results in immediate power and water consumption reduction of 10% to 15% at our smelters. This has significant sustainability benefits, including a 10% reduction in our Scope 2 CO2 emissions. So we are producing the same ounces with higher concentrations, lower volumes and therefore, less material to smelt. I think you can agree that is significant. This will lead to huge downstream benefits for processing. To reach these targets, we installed and are currently commissioning Jameson Cell technology at Mogalakwena North Concentrator. After laboratory work, pilot plant testing and a demonstration plant at Mogalakwena North Concentrator, we found that this technology improves selectivity and efficiency on Platreef ores. An added benefit is the low footprint of these high-intensity flotation cells. Only 4 Jameson cells will be required to replace the 40 conventional tank cells at the current cleaner circuit at the North Concentrator. We anticipate that the Jameson cells will be fully operational by the end of H1 2025. The benefits of the mass pull strategy have enabled us to increase our smelting optionality and capacity, optimize our capital allocation, reduce smelting costs and improve stability and sustainability. This enabled us to place Mortimer on can maintenance in 2024 and will allow us to convert it to a slag cleaning duty. The reason this is so important is that the conversion means that we can process our surface stockpiles of converter slag, which are currently not generating cash. Slag is a byproduct formed during the process of smelting and can contain appreciable amounts of PGMs and base metals. We plan to start processing converter slag from 2027 onwards. This process will produce approximately 150,000 additional PGM ounces and around 20,000 tonnes of nickel and copper, generating additional revenue for the business, which is not currently in our production guidance. For those of you who have been following this business for some time, I'm sure you'll be pleased to know we have been putting a lot of time, energy and disciplined capital into smelting operations. What this means is that we have a robust and intentional rebuild plan that allows us to mitigate any unplanned stoppages of our smelters. Secondly, we have put a lot of focus and attention into our operating philosophy of our furnaces, focusing on stable feed and stable power, further instilling confidence in the improved utilization of our furnaces. Additionally, we have implemented rigorous monitoring and controls, which inform our structured furnace rebuild program and drive operational excellence. This is the reason why we have very high confidence in operating fewer furnaces at higher utilization. The benefits of these programs are evident as we have had no unplanned failures on our primary furnaces since 2017 and on the converter plant since 2020. We are confident that with the investments made and the controls in place, we will continue to avoid unplanned failures, resulting in significant cost savings. Furthermore, our investment in our acid plants at Waterval and Polokwane smelters allowed us to maintain SO2 emissions below the minimum emission standards targets. As a result of facing Mortimer on care and maintenance, we have saved approximately ZAR 400 million in 2024. Looking ahead, we anticipate saving around ZAR 1 billion in 2025. I think you'll agree that this is a lot of cash. Our smelters are very well positioned in the industry. For instance, our flagship primary furnace at Polokwane operates at 68 megawatts, which is double the power input of the next biggest furnace in the industry. The levels of automation and control, along with our approach to process safety are unparalleled in the industry. I know we have talked today about being an industry leader, but this is reality for us, and this is yet another example of why we feel confident about making such claims. Examples of our advanced practices include remote operation for tapping of the furnace and the use of machine vision tools for safety around our furnace. Again, if you want to know more about tackle management, happy to discuss this during the break. So I've covered a lot of quite technical content today and made you experts in mass pull, I hope. I really hope that having heard from Willie and me that you now have a much better appreciation of the extent and quality of our assets, how much work we have done to optimize each element of the integrated portfolio and are already seeing great results with more to come. But importantly, how our full integration is a real differentiator in the industry. I will now hand you over to Yvonne, who will pick up on the sustainability thread. Thank you.

Yvonne Mfolo

executive
#10

Tough act to follow. I'll give it my best. Thank you, Agit, and good afternoon everyone. Sustainability is central to our business model. We embed sustainability into everything we do because this is how we create and protect value while ensuring we uphold our responsibilities to society and the environment. This in turn enhances our competitive advantage. Put differently, when all your stakeholders from communities you work in, to your regulators and your host countries, to your commercial ecosystem, all see how you sustain value for them, you get more support. And that helps the business in achieving its strategic objectives. So how do we do this? Sustainability is integrated in everything we do. Our sustainability strategy is anchored around 3 focus areas, which is -- which are climate and energy, local communities and ethical value chains. Each plays a fundamental role in securing our long-term success. Mining, as we know, is energy intensive and platinum even more. And as we transition towards a lower carbon economy, securing cost-effective and resilient energy sources is critical. Our climate and energy and decarbonization initiatives focus on security of electricity supply, which is the first -- so by investing in renewable energy and enhancing security of supply, we will also position ourselves as a preferred supplier in a carbon-conscious global market. We are partnering with a specialized green energy provider Envusa to enhance our renewable and secure energy generation capacity. Agit has already highlighted what process is doing on this front. We are decarbonization -- we are decarbonizing our operations by targeting a 30% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030 with a clear path to carbon neutrality by 2040. Current examples include our Polokwane smelter emissions improvement program to meet national standards, and Agit touched on that. We're also actively managing water-related risks. Climate change is intensifying our water scarcity. So we are proactively implementing water stewardship strategies to mitigate this impact within our operations and our host communities. Our second key commitment is to community development that goes beyond just meeting regulatory requirements. We must ensure that our presence translates into long-term socioeconomic benefits for the people whose support we need in order to thrive. To strengthen economic and social resilience in our local communities, we focus on the following pillars. Firstly, improving livelihoods. We prioritize job creation within and beyond our mining operations, supporting local SMEs and ensuring economic diversification in our host communities. Secondly, we catalyze partnerships. We collaborate with NGOs, government agencies and our business community to magnify our positive impact, ensuring that our initiatives drive systemic change. Thirdly, we must deliver on our promises. Our ability to execute socioeconomic development projects effectively is key to strengthening trust and fostering lasting community development and support. The third element of our sustainability strategy is supporting ethical value chains by driving responsible sourcing and transparency. Customers and investors increasingly demand ethical sourcing and transparent value chains. This is not just a matter of compliance, it is a strategic imperative. It makes us stand out as a premium operator and supplier. So we are strengthening our ethical value chain by meeting global ethical standards. We are actively pursuing IRMA, the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance certification, which will reinforce our position as an industry leader in responsible mining. All our mining operations are IRMA certified with both Unki and Mototolo certified at 75, while Mogalakwena and Amandelbult are at 50. We intend to either maintain or improve these ratings. Accreditation is the final piece of the puzzle. We are in an accredited London Platinum and Palladium market and London Bullion Market Association, Good Delivery Refiner and source metal in line with the standards. Our LBMA accreditation also enables us to get cross recognition with the London Metals Exchange. Mogalakwena's -- I needed to catch a break. Mogalakwena's development pathway supports our sustainability commitments. Let's see how this plays out by looking at the future of Mogalakwena. The development of the Mogalakwena underground will deliver economic and operational advantages and clear sustainability benefits. By moving underground, we can significantly reduce our impact on surrounding host communities, cutting down on noise, dust and vibrations associated with open pit operations, which will enable us to harmoniously coexist. From a processing perspective, underground mining offers greater ore body selectivity, allowing us to blend higher-grade underground ore with open pit feed. This has tangible efficiency benefits, including optimizing concentrator fits, leading to higher yields and improved recoveries. Lower energy intensity, which enhances our overall sustainability profile and reduce tailings volumes with our underground backfill strategy further limiting surface tailings. In addition, by supplementing open pit with underground production, we can reduce waste stripping intensity, improving overall operational efficiency. As Craig mentioned earlier, underground mechanized mining requires specialist skill set. So we are proactively developing a talent strategy to ensure we have the right expertise in place when the time comes while creating decent jobs for our local communities. I hope this makes it clear that by embedding ethics and sustainability into our business model, we will both enhance our competitive positioning and strengthen long-term relationships with the stakeholders whose support we need. Through our focus on decarbonization, community resilience and ethical business practices, we are future-proofing our business, strengthening our brand, securing markets and our long-term profitability. With that, I will now hand over to Hilton to wrap up this session before we go to the break.

Hilton Ingram

executive
#11

Thank you, Yvonne. Hi, it's me again. We're nearing the home straight, and I'll talk you through how we, as a marketing team, add value to Anglo American Platinum. So we market 13 products. Of those, only 2 go to market via intermediaries, selenium, a rare earth and sulfuric acid. The rest we take to market ourselves. We sold the majority of our products via 1-, 3- and 5-year contracts, but it's important to understand the markets in which we operate. Platinum, palladium and gold have liquid over-the-counter markets in London and futures markets in New York. By contrast, rhodium, iridium and ruthenium are opaque, thinly traded, willing buyer, willing seller markets. Our nickel cathode is LME deliverable, while the chemical makeup of our copper means it's a Class II product. Both of these trade on the liquid physical and futures LME exchange. By contrast, UG2 chrome concentrate trains in a thinly traded physical market. From a logistics perspective, the precious metals are moved by passenger airline belly freight, while the nickel and copper are moved by container freight. Chrome is shipped via truck or rail to port and via a bulk ship to customers largely in Asia. So mining companies have traditionally chosen to define the battery limits of their business as find, mine, process and deliver. This has left a gap between the services they were historically prepared to offer and customers' needs. Into that gap have stepped intermediaries, offering our customers the services they need while leveraging the imperfections of the market and using their market insights to generate additional value. As marketing, we aim to add value beyond the inherent value of our products. So I know the slide behind me is an exercise in 50 shades of blue, but that central gray sphere is inherent value. And then we, as marketing look to layer on additional value over and above that. Now the inherent value belongs to Agit and to Willie. And we define it and we derive it from benchmarks where they exist or best possible proxies, including trader quotes. To that, we then add an equity premium or the value we derive through negotiations with our customers in exchange for guaranteed supply, value and use benefits, logistics and other services. We can then add additional value to that through our trading team. which work within defined risk and working capital limits. The trading desk allows us to derive additional value from bid offer spreads, time spreads, geographical arbitrage, quality arbitrage and by taking proprietary positions. Our trading capability then enables us to come back and add further value to our equity through being able to include fixed prices and price optionality into our agreements. It also enables us to better manage our own supply risks. Our intention is to compete with intermediaries for a fair share of the downstream value pool by providing solutions that meet or exceed our customers' needs. We're looking to grow that value pool through adding additional innovative solutions and capturing a brand value premium. As the illustration shows, it's about growing the cake. We've added more than $600 million over the last 6 years to the cake, thanks to the great effort of our teams of higher and higher prices and increased market volatility. Our value proposition to customers rests on 3 territories, of which tailored solutions is one. The other 2 are being a trusted partner and our willingness to work together with our customers to shape our world. So let's have a look at trusted partner. When customers work with us, they can rely on us to find value for both of us, deliver what we promise and operate to the highest industry standards, ethically and sustainably. The picture on the right-hand side is taken at the 2023 VW Supplier Conference. I'm standing there with Dirk, VW's Chief Purchasing Officer. Out of 40,000 suppliers, VW issued 2 sustainability awards and one of them went to Anglo American Platinum for our work championing and implementing the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance standards. As Yvonne highlighted, we're an independently accredited responsible miner and source metal within recognized market standards. These standards, together with the efforts of our refining and marketing team, mean that we can be trusted partner to our customers, ensuring that their reputation is safe in our hands. Now on to our third territory, shaping our world. We're optimally positioned to help customers address some of the world's most defining challenges, including reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time, to shape the future dynamics of our metals. We do this through 4 main levers: advocacy, where we advocate for ICE emission standards, improved PGM procurement practices for hydrogen economy and hydrogen in mobility. We look to nurture new PGM applications and new PGM businesses through funding research and development, taking stakes in start-up businesses and being an early adopter of technology that uses PGMs. We actively invest in hydrogen and other PGM venture capital funds, and we look to collaborate with partners across the value chains, both horizontally and vertically to drive demand for our products. So to believe in PGM market development, you need to believe that a South African company can have an impact on a global scale. And here's a great example of what we can do. In 2022, we were one of the founding members together with Toyota and Hyundai of the International Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association in China. Today, IFCA, as it's fondly known, has more than 100 members, and it provides us with a means to engage with the Chinese authority and bring together like-minded people from across the world to tackle the challenges faced by the industry. IFCA is only one such example. We're also founding members of the Hydrogen Council, Hydrogen Europe and the African Hydrogen Partnership. What the hydrogen economy needs to succeed is ecosystems that work, and there's no better way to deliver those ecosystems than by getting like-minded people and supportive governments in a room working through the challenges. As our friends at Mastercard would say, the benefits of this are priceless. So what's the benefit of shaping our world? In mobility, nearly 6 million ounces of platinum demand could be created if 10% of new light-duty vehicles were fuel cell electric vehicles. An additional 900,000 ounces of palladium demand could be created if 10% of new vehicle sales use PGM-enriched lithium sulfur batteries, similar to those that are being currently being developed by one of our nurturing businesses, Lion Battery. In the industrial space, we have a number of applications we are looking at from PGM's potential role in enhancing processing power in data centers, particularly important as the impact of AI continues to grow through the production of carbon and through the production of carbon-neutral feedstocks such as sustainable aviation fuel. Collectively, we believe these could generate more than 2 million ounces of incremental demand. That does not include the 1 million ounces of additional demand from the partial substitution with gold in industrial applications that I mentioned earlier. Finally, in jewelry, as I've alluded to earlier, if 10% of white gold jewelry is converted to platinum, for instance, utilizing our new alloy Inoveo Platinum, we believe an additional 1.5 million ounces of platinum demand could be created. All of this underlines the importance of proactive market development in creating resilience in the end markets of our metals and securing Anglo American Platinum's future into the long term. Thank you. We're going to have a short break now. And then when we come back, we'll hear from our CFO, Sayurie Naidoo, and those people that want to catch up with Agit on mass pull and tapping holes is over there. [Break]

Sayurie Naidoo

executive
#12

Welcome back, everyone, and good afternoon. Fortunately, we are now on the home stretch, and I get to cover the part you are all looking forward to. Returns. As we have said, Anglo American Platinum benefits from a balanced revenue stream across various metals. This diversification has been crucial in stabilizing our revenue at above ZAR 100 billion per annum despite fluctuations in individual metal prices. We have proven to be agile in response to lower PGM prices through our decisive action plan by reducing our operating costs by ZAR 7 billion and SIB capital by ZAR 5 billion last year. Cumulatively, through our actions, we delivered ZAR 12 billion in savings, which exceeded our 2024 targets by ZAR 2 billion, and we have identified further cost-saving opportunities on which I will elaborate in the coming slides. Our balance sheet remains resilient, with a debt ceiling of 1x net debt-to-EBITDA through the cycle. We believe that the quality of our assets, the recent shift down the cost curve and our continued capital discipline will allow us to keep paying a superior base dividend of 40% of headline earnings, while still investing in the efficiency and sustainability of our operations. Our commitment to consistent shareholder returns is evident in our track record over the years. And as followers of the PGM mining industry, you will know that this is unmatched in our sector. Our cost savings initiatives enabled us to rightsize and reset our cost base and deliver an all-in sustaining cost of below $1,000 per 3E ounce in 2024. In addition to the ZAR 7 billion in cost savings achieved last year, we are targeting a further ZAR 4 billion in 2025. The chart on the right provides a breakdown of these additional savings. The majority of which are related to the annualized benefits of the cost savings achieved in 2024. Be assured that we will continue to look for opportunities to further drive down costs beyond 2025 to mitigate the impact of inflation. Some of these drivers include continued operational excellence, such as the Mogalakwena pit optimization, and the energy savings through renewable projects. Our target is for a further ZAR 1 billion to ZAR 2 billion of operational cost savings after 2025. On the chart on the right, we have provided a breakdown of all the demerger-related costs. I must emphasize that these are one-off costs totaling ZAR 1.6 billion to ZAR 1.9 billion. The majority of which will be incurred in 2025 with the final portion in 2026. These costs include separation activities, advisory costs and our corporate identity transformation. Furthermore, we will settle intercompany costs incurred to date of around ZAR 4 billion related to services provided by Anglo American of which 70% has already been accrued by end 2024. Our optimization benefits arising from the demerger, range between ZAR 1 billion and ZAR 1.5 billion per annum. This will be achieved through a more streamlined corporate structure, reduced intercompany recharges and delivering efficiency improvements. However, as a partial offset, there are some dis-synergies that arise from procurement, contracts and systems, which were previously under the Anglo American umbrella, and these amount to around ZAR 0.5 billion per annum. We will, of course, identify further opportunities to offset these dissynergies. Our unchanged total CapEx guidance reflects a stable sustaining capital profile but an increase in discretionary capital over the next 3 years, which is driven largely by carefully considered value-accretive future projects that have been tested against our rigorous capital framework. The timing of the spending could, of course, be reconsidered if a weaker PGM pricing environment materializes versus what we anticipate in 2026 and 2027. These future projects include the Mogalakwena underground project, which is in pre-feasibility with twin decline early development stage gating to feasibility in the second half of 2025. The estimated capital is around ZAR 2 billion to ZAR 3 billion per annum for the next 3 years. The Tumela 1 sub-shaft project, also in pre-feasibility, will allow us to continue to deliver high-margin ounces at Amandelbult. The repurposing of Mortimer Smelter to a slag cleaning furnace, which has low execution risk and a fast payback. The key message here is that we remain disciplined in terms of capital allocation and the future projects that we are investing in are value accretive with compelling returns. Our stay-in-business capital spend has been primarily focused on ensuring asset integrity, which remains a priority for us. We have allocated significant resources to maintaining and improving the structural integrity of our assets. SIB CapEx has come down materially as we have successfully restored the sustainability, stability and flexibility at our operations. Part of the reduction is attributable to a concerted effort to optimize our CapEx spend, reprioritize projects and leverage efficiencies. Looking ahead, our stay-in-business CapEx of approximately ZAR 6 billion to ZAR 7.5 billion per annum will continue to prioritize asset integrity and reliability. In 2024, we targeted an all-in sustaining cost of below $1,050 per 3E ounce and achieved $986 per 3E ounce. All our managed assets were cash flow generative in 2024 with strong all-in sustaining cost margin as a result of our disciplined approach to cost management and capital allocation. Importantly, Amandelbult generated a healthy all-in sustaining cost margin of 20% in 2024. Its compelling margins, make it an anchor asset in our portfolio. With the further cost reductions being targeted, we expect all our assets to remain cash generative at spot prices. And we are guiding an all-in sustaining cost target of $970 to $1,000 per 3-ounce for 2025, subject to the impact of the Amandelbult flooding incident. We expect to remain at around $950 per 3E ounce in real terms over the medium term. At this point, I could probably stop talking here as the slide speaks for itself. It is important to consider our PGM operations all-in sustaining cost, where we have demonstrated our position in the bottom half of the cost curve, but also the context of the revenue basket. Based on all-in sustaining cost margins, you will note that Amandelbult shifts up the margin curve because its attractive prill split generates the highest revenue per 3E ounce in the industry. Similarly, at Mototolo, even before the benefits we are expecting from the inclusion of chrome and operational efficiencies at as Der Brochen ramps up. We have one of the highest all-in sustaining cost margins in the portfolio. For Mogalakwena, despite its higher capital intensity, typically associated with open pit mines, it sits in a favorable position with further improvements to come as the identified operational efficiencies start to show in the costs. As a prelude to the next slide, this chart illustrates the portfolio's strong cash-generating ability at spot prices before we talk about what we want to do with the cash. The principles of our disciplined capital allocation framework remain unchanged. These are sustainable cash generation through the cycle, supported by the delivery of our operational excellence program. Prioritization of sustaining capital to deliver safe and stable production. Commitment to a base dividend payout of 40% of headline earnings. Any excess capital can then be further deployed into discretionary options, either in the form of additional shareholder returns or investment in the capital projects with appropriate expected returns. The demerger provides us with a unique opportunity to construct a new and tailored capital structure, optimized for life as a leading independent PGM producer. In assessing the optimal construction of our independent balance sheet and the appropriate levels of leverage through the cycle, we have factored in our world-class resource endowment, continued investment into our operations and assets and our project pipeline opportunity. Our cost-competitive asset base where all 4 of our assets are in the bottom half of the cost curve and maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet through the cycle. Consequently, we declared a ZAR 16.5 billion cash dividend after which the company retains a ZAR 1.1 billion net cash position, including the customer prepayment on a pro forma basis. Our aim is to maintain net debt to EBITDA at below 1x through the cycle. This is in line with PGM industry peers and provides adequate flexibility to withstand price volatility and allows us to execute and deliver on our strategy. We currently have committed debt facilities of ZAR 34 billion, of which ZAR 10 billion is from South African lenders, and ZAR 24 billion from Anglo American. These facilities will be replaced at demerger with around ZAR 28 billion to ZAR 30 billion, consisting of revolving credit facilities provided by local and international lenders as well as a debt capital markets bridge facility. Lastly, we have a well-earned reputation in the market for delivering shareholder returns, having consistently paid a base dividend over the last 8 years and often returning a special dividend on top of that, a claim none of our PGM peers can make. Our dividend policy at 40% of headline earnings remains one of the most generous payout ratios amongst our precious metals mining peers. And shareholder returns will continue to remain a priority in our capital allocation framework. Thank you. And I will now hand you over to Craig to close for us.

Craig Miller

executive
#13

So thank you, Sayurie. I think it's fair to say that we've covered an enormous amount of territory today. And I hope you'll leave today's session with a better understanding of the unique properties and the qualities of our business, which truly make us a leading integrated PGM producers with a resource endowment that supports our growth optionality. We've demonstrated how our world-class integrated value proposition positions us to not only mine, refine and market our metals, capturing more value for ourselves. I am confident that we have the capability within our company to continue to deliver on a resilient performance and I know that we'll meet the challenge to deliver the most from our organization. So before finalizing our presentation today, there are some key fundamentals, which I want you just to please remember. Firstly, we're relentless and unconditional in our focus on safety. We remain committed to ensure that every single person that enters our operations returns home to their families and friends every day. Second, we've got an experienced executive team with a strong track record of delivery to lead our simplified and our strengthened organization. Third, we have a leading mineral resource endowment, which offers pathways to grow our value. Fourth, we remain absolutely confident in the outlook for PGMs and have a positive outlook on the markets. Fifth, we're well positioned to generate EBITDA margins regardless of where we are in the price cycle. And lastly, we remain disciplined in allocating capital to ensure sustainable shareholder value delivery. And underpinning those messages is our clear focus around sustainability and incorporating that into everything that we do. I genuinely am super excited about the future which lies ahead of us. So thank you very much for joining us. I'll now hand you over across to Theto, who will facilitate a question-and-answer session, and you can really ask all the difficult questions to the executive team who are going to join me up on the stage. Thanks very much.

Theto Maake

executive
#14

Thank you, Craig. I think to all -- thank you for all the speakers of the day. Starting with Norman all the way to Craig closing the session, I believe they were able to unpack who we really are, right, an independent leader in the market of PGM industry. So the next session, and thank you to everyone here. I see you've actually stayed for the entire afternoon. So we are quite grateful that you were able to spend the afternoon with us. Now on to the one area I enjoy the most to the dread of my executives, which just puts them on the hot seat, right? So typically, for every session that we have, I'm supposed to come and close the session. But if you see Craig thanking you and say, let's close, it just means that not only did I go over time, it just means that he started saying cut cut and I didn't. Then he'll come in and say, thank you, everybody. So I hope it doesn't happen today. So similar to how we do it for all the other events is we will first start in the room. And as usual, I will request that you mention your name, which company you represent. And given the sheer numbers today, I am going to request that up to 2 or 3 questions per person so that we can cover as many questions as possible. Once done, I'm also just checking for the guys online to say you can start posting your questions so that I can read them out at the end. There will be mics going around. So just remember name, company and your questions. I see there's already a couple of questions coming through.

Jason Fairclough

analyst
#15

Jason Fairclough, Bank of America. I'm actually just going to ask one question because there are a lot of people in the room. If we look at your growth projects today, and particularly, I guess, I'm thinking about the uncommitted ones, would these projects attract capital at spot PGM prices? Or do we need to take a bit more of a bullish view on prices?

Craig Miller

executive
#16

Yes. So Jason, I think, look, the key areas for us in terms of growth as we've outlined are at Mogalakwena and particularly Sandsloot. So that is, as we've articulated, it's still very much in the pre-feasibility stage and feasibility stage. But I just think reiterating what we've said, being able to bring those ounces to the concentrator at Mogalakwena and not having to invest in any further downstream processing capacity certainly makes it really, really attractive. And importantly, ensuring that where we operate in the lower half of the cost curve should be able to sustain that investment. But as Sayurie has said, in terms of our discipline around capital and what you can expect for us, for a project to proceed, it will need to meet the various returns. And those returns not only include what the payback is, what the IRR is, but more importantly as well, where it positions us on the cost curve in order to sustain that. So once we've completed the studies and we're in a position to be able to push the button, come 2027, we'll do an evaluation in terms of where we're at. But those -- that's clearly where we are from an initial growth ounce perspective. The commitments that we've got under -- sorry, if I can just confirm just on Mototolo, I mean that's really replacement ounces for Lebowa. And we've committed to that project, and that does still generate returns even at the current price environment as well. I don't know, Willie, if there's anything else.

Willie Theron

executive
#17

No, its good.

Jason Fairclough

analyst
#18

All right. Could I just push you? So do those projects work at spot prices?

Craig Miller

executive
#19

So I think -- so Jason, as I've said, I mean, we're still in the study phase for the Mogalakwena Sandsloot. So that is working out what does the cost look like? What are the CapEx profiles look like. We believe that given the value that we see from those projects, they will create value for shareholders. But we need to complete those studies, and that's where we're investing the money and the time to be able to do that study correctly. And once we're in that position, then we'll make a decision in 2027 around whether we progress that and really ramp up the production profile, which we shared on the slide earlier today.

Christopher Nicholson

analyst
#20

It's Chris Nicholson from RMB Morgan Stanley. If I can just continue that theme. So specifically around the Mogalakwena underground and talking about that in terms of its growth optionality, 2 questions. On the CapEx, so it looks like you've spent about ZAR 1.5 billion on the CapEx so far in the underground just the last 2 years and you pencil then looks like another ZAR 8.5 billion over the next 3 years. That gets you to feasibility. What does that actually get you from the mine? And I'm thinking specifically, what will the full cost of this mine be? I mean, is this just partial or can we expect it to double? And then from there, the second question is just, obviously, in the open pit, you're up against some community constraints, the strip ratio is increasing. Is there a scenario? Or is there a possibility that actually this underground becomes replacement ounces in the end?

Craig Miller

executive
#21

Thanks, Chris. And Willie, do you want to review in terms of just the...

Willie Theron

executive
#22

So if you look at the first 2.2 million ounces, that's essentially what we talk about. It's the Lift 1 of the feasibility project. So it's a 2.2 million, which is a trucking option, okay? And that relates to -- if you isolate that in the old profile, that would yield in the region of about 400,000 ounces. So you have to also note that, that will offset in open cost ounces. So overall, there will be between 10% upwards over the 1 million ounce for the complex in terms of production. When we talk about the next step, which is the 4 million, that will require a lot of infrastructure then to support conveyor belt systems, and that can take you to a 4 million tonne, and that's additional capital that would have to be considered at that particular point in time. So you get the 10 percentage up to about a 50% even additional growth in ounces from that portfolio, but -- and then you'll get the benefit 10% to 20% on all-in sustaining cost. But that all depends on what is the capital outlay for that particular decision point and whether it still make our hurdle rates. I think in terms of -- when you look at the open cost, I think we were very deliberate in saying that for the next decade, the 1 million ounces can be done without even having an underground mine and without having to look at communities. Also with us moving towards the northern side, it's even beyond that in terms of the strip ratios. So you can put it out even beyond 2035, 2040 before that starts playing some sort of a role. So as the 2.2 million odd tonnes comes in from the ramp up from Sandsloot, you can minimize the strip ratio, and you can have a blend of between open pit and underground, so which ultimately changes the whole scenario whether you would ever have to replace communities. As we look at the open pit and we optimize the tactical plan to the open pit, there doesn't necessarily seem to be a need to replace communities for a long time, very long time beyond the current 20, 25 years. I think maybe just to add to that point, it doesn't -- so having said that, we do know that historically, we have an impact on communities with just operating in the environment. And I think Yvonne's slide was very instrumental in that regard. So we do feel that part of our social license to operate aspects is to look at all those things encompass in any case, what we do to be a responsible operator in that area.

Theto Maake

executive
#23

I see Adrian and then Ben?

Adrian Hammond

analyst
#24

It's Adrian Hammond, SBG Securities. Question for Willie, Craig and Hilton. Willie firstly, you're mining guy, but we've also had a lot of discussion today about processing. Certainly, you've demonstrated to the -- today that you're fully integrated and you've got lots of flexibility and redundancy around processing, perhaps something you need to showcase a bit more. But as a mining guy, where do you think then the bottlenecks are for the group as a whole? And then I'll ask the other questions to let them think about it. Craig, you promised some more detail on the flowback. Of that 48% demerge, how much do you think is at risk to impacting the share price? And do you have a lockup agreement yet in place for the remaining 19.9%? And for Hilton, you put up a slide deck demonstrating some loopholes in Chinese legislation. What is the date of that publication, please? Because I remember seeing something similar quite some time ago. You also mentioned substitution of gold for platinum. Can you give us some examples? And is it actually practical? It is -- could be quite substantial given the price differential. And then also, those Chinese exports of vehicles, are the other countries that are importing those vehicles, are they actually testing those loadings?

Theto Maake

executive
#25

I think Adrian being Adrian. Asked 3 questions each, you want 3 people with multiple of questions, but I'm sure we can pick up many of those.

Willie Theron

executive
#26

Yes. Adrian, I think what's important is to look at each asset on an individual basis. So I think looking at Mogalakwena, the concentrated capacity at Mogalakwena-- sorry, at Amandelbult, let's start with Amandelbult. The concentrated capacity at Amandelbult is far more than the current underground or that gets delivered to the concentrators. But it's clear that the first bottleneck is Amandelbult. It's not a -- it's an old lady, so to speak. It doesn't have any more of the capacity to get to the levels that it historically were in terms of tonnes. So what we've seen with the mine plans, and Craig has alluded to those mine plans, how you must think about Amandelbult, it's a 4 million tonne operation. Okay, call it 4 million to about 4.3 million tonne operation. And what our effort would be there is to see how to get the best buildup head grade from that 4 million to 4.3 million tonnes out. Then it's really to understand there's 2 concentrators there, a U1 and U2 concentrator and to see is there other projects that we can do with the second concentrator, i.e., tailings treatment or whatever the case might be. But ultimately, you want to get down to one concentrator and the underground ore for one concentrator. So there the bottleneck is the mining cannot -- the concentrate capacity is higher than the mining effort there. Looking at Mogalakwena. Mogalakwena has the 14 million tonne concentrated capacity. And there, the discussion is about ounces because we can blend a higher-grade underground ore to a lower-grade open pit ore, so to speak. But without doing that even, the open pit at about 100 million to 120 million tonnes, the open pit is adequate to give enough high-grade, medium grade and low-grade material to sustain a 1 million ounce profile, above 1 million ounce profile, and that can be done for at least the next decade. In terms of bottlenecks, as we -- as I tried to explain with the operational excellence in this slide is to really eliminate those issues that has a direct impact on your all-in sustaining costs going south. And I think with all the work and the work still to be done there that we're busy with, we are trying to tick them off one bit at a time. I think also in future aspects that we would be looking at to is how to further optimize, what happens with the tailings layout, how we further optimize what we can put on the rock dumps and so forth. The Mototolo story is the replacement. And that replacement is really, at this stage, the limitation while we do not currently necessarily fill the concentrator plant to the fullest over a specific point in time, and it's just how we try and balance to still get the broken area opened up and then the crews moving across from the other 2 shafts. It's more to get them from the one area to move and transition across into other. But that's small mining problems, not big mining problems, so to speak. But in essence, there we can fill the concentrator. Mareesburg is in itself a competitive advantage because to get these days, the tailings facility capitalized with all the regulatory environments that -- and all the things that of late has happened again in the world is tough. So if you have a tailings facility, you actually have a competitive advantage in Mareesburg is a new one. So for me, really the main key assets, Mogalakwena, Amandelbult, Mototolo, it's really about execution and delivery and making sure we sustain the all-in sustaining cost down the cost curve as what we have explained around the world. Unki remains still Unki, it still delivers. It's a wonderful workforce. And obviously, at some particular point in time, we will have to look at those assets. But again, it's our capital allocation framework that will be determining factor there. In terms of Modikwa, it is a non-managed operation. It has a structure in it, and we will be working -- it's one of those things that we will be working on and see what will be -- how it will look forward? Do we still maintain the layout where we have Modikwa operating on its own and the [indiscernible]? Or is there a control or a shifting of control in the future? But that's where we are at with those assets.

Christopher Nicholson

analyst
#27

Okay. I think you can go Hilton and I'll then capture flow back on the way. Why don't you finish.

Hilton Ingram

executive
#28

So to your point, Adrian, I don't have the exact date off the top of my head, but it was late January, early February. I'll get you the exact date. And then in the last couple of days, they've tightened the heavy-duty restrictions as well. They're proposing implementing some pretty drastic sort of real-world testing on the heavy-duty stuff. So clearly, an indication or we interpret it as an indication, they've identified they've got a problem and they're looking to solve it. And the solution to that problem is going to be likely increased loadings. In terms of the palladium gold situation, the vast majority of gold and industrial applications goes into electronics, either in platings or in connectors. And the perspective is, while palladium is not equivalent but it's not far off interchangeable. So we're going to be working with Deep Science Ventures and others. We've got an investment in alloy that allows us to run these tests rather quickly and see how much of that we can practically bring to fruition ourselves. There's also in China that make PVC from coal. And to do so, they use a rather nasty gold mercury catalyst. And we think there's scope there for us to replace that with a palladium catalyst. So we're doing work in that area as well. And then you asked a third question. I was so busy thinking about the second one that I missed it.

Adrian Hammond

analyst
#29

It's clear that the Chinese loadings have been coming down, as you point out, but they've also been exporting a lot of cars and perhaps to jurisdictions that don't necessarily follow Euro 5 or Euro 6. So is that a threat, I guess, particularly the hybrids?

Hilton Ingram

executive
#30

So yes, those loadings have come down. We refer to it as a mix effect, right? Because the loadings will be a mix of the countries you're exporting to. Now with people self sanctioning Russia, Russia couldn't get catalysts. So basically scrap the requirements, right? So you could virtually send cars with no catalytic loadings to Russia. And so you have those mix effects. But generally, you have to have, and I'm going to fall over the pronunciation of the word, the car homologated in the countries that you are supplying those countries, those vehicles to. And so they will address standards. Now the element is you can pass your standards and it's about -- for how long do you pass those standards. And so that's the real-world testing stuff. So there'll be a bit of that as China exports, but cost-effective vehicles and ICE vehicles is an upside for us, right? So lead to more sales, we hope.

Craig Miller

executive
#31

So Adrian, just in response to the question around the flowback. So I think clearly, Anglo has sold down its particular stakes leading up to the end of the year. And then obviously, the retention of the 20% is all part of the mitigation of the anticipated flowback. So not really much of an update from what we said back in February other than certainly the likes of today, the outlook that we have for the PGM sector and the quality of the assets will certainly help, we believe, in terms of addressing some of the challenges. Now is a great time in terms of buying Anglo Platinum and through the demerger, that's what you -- that's your opportunity because you see the upside in the business. In terms of -- specifically, as it relates to the lockups, as we said, those are just being normal, sort of normal commiserate transactions. And so those details will be provided in more detail, I think, come April when the various announcements are released.

Theto Maake

executive
#32

I see Ben first, and then we'll come through the front.

Benjamin Davis

analyst
#33

Ben Davis from RBC Capital Markets. A couple of questions. First one on the Mortimer Smelter conversion. Could you give us a bit of an indication on what the cost of those ounces will be? How much of it is dependent on stockpiles versus, say, current risings? Is this something we should have in our model going forward [ ad finitum ]? And then secondly, just in terms of that aggregate 2% to 5% increase in recoveries you're targeting, how much is that coming from Mortimer and also just from the other operations? Any buckets that you could separate that into would be great.

Agit Singh

executive
#34

Yes. So the material that we're treating at Mortimer is already above surface stockpiles. It's already been through the smelting process. It's a byproduct stream, right? So there's no additional cost associated with it apart from processing it and driving the revenue. So those are the guidance that I gave around 150,000-ounce PGMs and 20,000 base metal tonnes that we have in that surface stockpile. The conversion is a very simple conversion, but there's some technical details around the feeding system that we're working out, but the furnace itself remains a [ 6 in line ] and pretty much in line with the guidance that we gave before. The capital cost will be for the rebuild, some asset integrity work that we need to do, the conveying system. And then on the abatement side, we've got some work to do around that. I think the guidance that Sayurie gave, well, she'll speak about it just now, in terms of the capital input required for that.

Sayurie Naidoo

executive
#35

Maybe just to add in terms of the stock that we've currently got then on our balance sheet, and it's about ZAR 5 billion that we will process post-2027. And that's not in our refined production guidance.

Craig Miller

executive
#36

It will take sort of a number of years.

Agit Singh

executive
#37

So from 2027 is when we'll start processing it. It will take between 4 and 5 years for us to process all of that material. So the conversion will be done. It will be using a 50% concentrate and 50% of the slag in the makeup of the feed that we'll be putting into the furnace.

Craig Miller

executive
#38

I think Ben's other question was just your improvement in recoveries.

Agit Singh

executive
#39

So which recoveries are you referring to?

Benjamin Davis

analyst
#40

There was a slide. So your 2024 versus your target, you've got 2% to 5% increase in recoveries.

Norman Mbazima

executive
#41

It constitutes the Recoveries.

Agit Singh

executive
#42

Yes. So we've got 2% to 5% improvement in recoveries, which work out to be about 50,000 to 55,000 ounces of PGMs per year. And that's based on the work that we've done at Amandelbult; Mototolo, which already are driving those -- some of those benefits, recoveries have certainly stepped up there; and then the bigger one is around the work we're doing at Mogalakwena and the commissioning of the Jameson cells that will help us with the mass pull, but also with protecting the recovery. And we have -- we're quite positive about the impact that will have on our recoveries in there. But on average, about 50,000 to 55,000 ounces PGMs that we'll be recovering additional.

Theto Maake

executive
#43

So I think Nkateko, then René, then Arnold.

Nkateko Mathonsi

analyst
#44

Nkateko Mathonsi, Investec Bank. My first question is probably for Willie, and it's on safety. And for as long as I've done this job, the whole industry has been talking about zero harm. And I want to know from you if it is really achievable from a conventional mine. We've seen the mechanized operations actually maintain zero harm in terms of fatalities, but not necessarily the deep-level conventional mine. So it would relate mainly to Amandelbult. So yes, your view around that. The second question is probably for Yvonne and Virginia. I mean, today, you've presented about supply possibly declining by 16% by 2030. That is 5 years from now. That could have very devastating impact on the economies of the communities where the PGM miners actually operate. So I just want to know, how do you prepare for that? Because right now, we've seen quite a bit of stability. You've spoken about the 5-year wage agreement. So the past few years, we've seen very good stability. But if really supply is going to decline that substantially, it could have a knock-on impact on the operating environment for everyone, you've talked about how Amandelbult has got the longest life in the Western Limb, but if the environment changes, it may not actually help. And then the last question, I have a lot of questions, but I will limit it to 3, Theto. The last question is for Hilton. If you can talk about secondary supply recycling in North America. I'm of the impression that is the biggest recycling market. So in this environment where we could potentially see tariffs on Canada and Mexico, how should we think about that? What is the potential impact on recycling?

Craig Miller

executive
#45

Safety first.

Willie Theron

executive
#46

Yes, always. I think a few years ago, that question was at various answers. But if you take -- we have moved on. There are so many mines, conventional mines, that has given 6 million fatality-free shifts, 8 million fatality-free shifts, 10 million fatality-free shifts in our industry in South Africa. There's no question that fatality-free mining and zero harm is possible. And where we're standing today, there's enough examples out there to not even second-guess it. There's a few things that we still need to work on as an industry. And in terms of our company also, it's our utmost priority, and that has been laid out. We work with people. We have to engineer as much as we can. We have to [ map ] it out and make it as simple and as nonnegotiable as possible for them to be able to do that. And that is where we continue to drive our efforts. But definitely, from where I'm sitting, there's enough examples out there to make me truly believe -- there's no reason, no question why it can't be done. We've done it at -- even Amandelbult went for 2 years without having fatality. And so it can be done. And there's individual sections that has gone many, many, many years without fatalities. So there's no reason why we can't have zero harm and zero fatalities in our operation, including conventional mining. And that's where I'm standing on it.

Yvonne Mfolo

executive
#47

Yes, I can come in on the community bit.

Craig Miller

executive
#48

And then Virginia will talk to skills and how we think about skills.

Virginia Tyobeka

executive
#49

Sure. Yes.

Yvonne Mfolo

executive
#50

Yes. So our sustainability strategy from a community perspective emphasizes resilience of communities. And we can only achieve resilience if the communities are not really dependent on us. And you would have seen that we're talking about when we create jobs or livelihoods, it's within and outside of our mines, and we talk diversification as well. And that's exactly for that reason that apart from the cyclicality of our industry, there's also an issue of closure where you would have seen that when mines close, then people, workers, communities were dependent on the mine, and they're not able to survive or sustain themselves and you leave ghost towns behind. So what we are doing with this diversification is to ensure that the community is not just reliant on us. Yes, we provide jobs, but most of the jobs that we provide -- and you would have seen this year, we've done about 2.5 off-site jobs against one -- each job within the mine. And that's our strategy, more external jobs, more non-mining jobs, looking at other industries like tourism, agriculture, to make sure that should anything not go well, go the opposite direction, communities are still able to sustain themselves. We work with -- we look at provincial economic strategies and look at what's relevant in those areas. We work with partners. We've got a lot of initiatives that we have with Mr Price, with Foschini, to get our communities working within the clothing manufacturing industry, getting skills in those areas as well to make sure that they can sustain themselves beyond the life of mine. So that's what's in our livelihood and sustainability strategy.

Virginia Tyobeka

executive
#51

Thanks. From the workforce perspective, so what we do, from a skills development perspective, is that we partner with schools. In fact, we support specific schools around the communities where we operate, where the students come through into our technical skills programs. And the reason why we do that is that because we develop for technical skills, it also helps that in the event of a decline, our employees are able to be self-sufficient in terms of having technical skills where they can set themselves up or they can still be able to do work outside the formal employment. The second thing that we do is we look at the strategic workforce planning because we know that with the life of mine, what we will need, the workforce that we will need, the skills that we will need in 4, 5 years' time, up to 10 years' time, and we need to get much better in terms of allowing people to move on as they age. And as you may be aware, some of our workforce, especially on operator level, have been in the mining industry for a long time. And as they age and move on, then we would be able to manage the workforce from that perspective. So it's quite important that especially within the South African environment that we focus on allowing people and helping them with skills to be able to survive beyond the life of mine.

Hilton Ingram

executive
#52

Okay, over to me. On the recycling bit, there are no planned tariffs on South Africa that we're aware of. There's been a lot of noise, but there's no planned tariffs. And if you look, we're 3 years into the Ukraine war and nickel has not been sanctioned over that period, right? So it's unlikely that the U.S. is going to impose tariffs on PGMs as it's not in their interest. In terms of the economic incentive in terms of recycling, I think there is sufficient economic incentive to recycle today and it would be unaffected. Over and above the economic incentive, there's the low carbon incentive, right? And that's why we've got aspirations to reduce our carbon footprint by 30% by 2030 and to be carbon neutral by 2040. And then we've consistently seen, as Martin pointed out, recycling forecast expectations not being met, right? And I've been the victim of this because every time I say to the boss, "They're going to rise," he doesn't believe me. But there's an upside that goes with an improvement in recycling in the U.S., right? Those new cars today in the U.S. are 5 to 10 grams PGMs in terms of catalysts and 90% of them are ICE vehicles. And the element with the forecast is they don't connect the two, right? So if a vehicle leaves the parking lot, another vehicle has got to come in. And so there's upside potential there even if it does increase.

Theto Maake

executive
#53

I think we'll go to René, Arnold thereafter. We'll take 2 more questions from the room, and then I'll move online.

René Hochreiter

analyst
#54

Just 2 questions from me. You said you'd run this company on a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 1. With Anglo sucking all the cash out that you've got -- that you had, do you think you'll ever run this company on net cash to EBITDA in the future some time? And then the second question is to Hilton. Chatting earlier, you mentioned that you thought that the stocks in rhodium and ruthenium were down to 0. What's your feeling about the stocks in palladium and platinum now in months or in years demand?

Craig Miller

executive
#55

Do you want to talk about balance sheet here?

Sayurie Naidoo

executive
#56

Yes, sure. So in terms of our balance sheet, as I said, we've got ZAR 1.1 billion of net cash at the end of 2024. And at current spot prices, we expect that all our assets will generate cash for 2025, and we will remain in the net cash position. that does include our customer prepayment. And Hilton is very hard at work to try to renegotiate that customer prepayment so that it will be extended. And I think importantly, we've reset all our assets from a cost perspective so that they do have quite generous margins. So if prices have to increase, I think we'll be able to be in a very good cash position going forward. So yes, I think -- I firmly believe that we will be able to run this business as a net cash business eventually.

Hilton Ingram

executive
#57

Okay. And then -- thanks for the question. So the general way that people do these above-ground stock calculations is to add up as many years of supply-demand balances as you can find. So we've had Metals Focus to work for us on it and the palladium and rhodium stocks are at 14-year lows. Yes. If I add up the supply-demand balances going back to 2010, I get to a negative 6 million ounces in palladium; and rhodium, I come out at minus 150,000. Back in 2020, WPIC did a great piece of work where they looked at it, excluding ETF investments. They said that, that was there for a reason and tightly hold. And they came to a number of 2.4 million ounces back in 2020. If you add the surpluses and deficits to them, that's down at 2.1 million ounces. That's 30% of demand today, right? But there's 2 factors that are at play here. There's inventories and there's how tightly those inventories are held, right? You've seen recent spikes in the rhodium price that point to, while there might be metal around, when everything is going well, as soon as there is a prospect of demand upside or people perceive there to be a supply disruption, suddenly those stocks are not as liquid as everybody thought. And you saw that in the price response. And then you saw when we came out and said, "Well, we're only doing this because it's our normal way of doing business," that, that price then came down, right? So it's indications in rhodium at least that inventories may not be as high as everybody thought. And the rhodium is always the canary in the coal mine. So let's watch the space.

Arnold Van Graan

analyst
#58

It's Arnold Van Graan from Nedbank. A question for Chris (sic) [ Craig ] because you've clearly demonstrated the significant upside potential from these assets. And as a stand-alone company, you now have the ability to unlock that. But my question is, where does that value unlock come from? Is it from having more operational autonomy? Or does it come from having more capital allocation autonomy? So is it how you run these operations and manage them going forward? Or is it about your ability to allocate capital that you probably wouldn't have been able to do otherwise?

Craig Miller

executive
#59

Thanks for the question, Arnold. I think it's both, to be perfectly honest. I think the opportunity for us to be very decisive around how we operate the assets with that clear drive around the operational excellence, and I think Willie and Agit have explained a lot of that today, the opportunity for us as a stand-alone entity is to certainly drive that because that's how we see where our assets operate on the cost curve. That's how we see where we generate capital. And ultimately, then we can utilize that capital and putting it back into the assets and particularly if we think through the opportunities which Mogalakwena presents itself. So as a stand-alone entity, it's both. We're really focused around the operational excellence and our ability to be able to generate returns and either that's in the form of going back into the assets. And if we were still part of the Anglo American Group, yes, we would have competed for capital with other commodities. But our competition is now very much internal. It's back to the quality of the assets that we have. And then if we can't generate the returns and it doesn't make sense, we'll return that back to shareholders. And so focusing around that discipline remains front and center of who we're going to be as a stand-alone business going forward.

Arnold Van Graan

analyst
#60

A quick one to Sayurie. On the ZAR 4 billion intercompany balance with Anglo American, is that on cost? Or is it an intercompany loan settlement? And is it cash flow that will actually leave the company?

Sayurie Naidoo

executive
#61

Yes. So that relates to the services that we currently procure from Anglo American, so in terms of our service level agreements. So it's global shared services, technical services, IM, et cetera. So that will be the outflow of cash in 2025. But as I said, we have already accrued for ZAR 3 billion of that by 2024.

Theto Maake

executive
#62

Checking, I see there's a question from Ravi there.

Ephrem Ravi

analyst
#63

Yes. Sort of 3 very quick questions, and just going to be simple answers. Firstly, there was no discussion of M&A at all in the presentation. So should we take it that for the foreseeable future, it will all be focused on internal rather than external growth? Especially if prices comes down, some of your competitors get in trouble, wouldn't that be an opportunity to invest countercyclically given the very rosy outlook that the marketing team has presented on PGM prices? Secondly, related to that, again, the last spin-off from Anglo, Thungela, had effectively built up a war chest of about ZAR 5 billion, ZAR 6 billion and generally sits on it, especially for opportunities and cushion when commodity prices comes down. So I appreciate the 1x net debt to EBITDA is a very conservative balance sheet, but if PGM prices go to $800 an ounce one fine morning and stays there for 2 years, you'll get to that 1x net debt to EBITDA pretty quickly within 1 or 2 years. So wouldn't it be more sensible given uncertainties to kind of build a -- have a net cash balance target rather than a net debt-to-EBITDA target from a financing point of view and give assurance to shareholders? And third and final one, just on the processing, you still have significant excess refining capacity. Yes, there are some projects that will lift your mine production, but there's also a good chance that a lot of them could become just replacements. So is there any plan to kind of buy discrete assets or long-term kind of supply agreements, which are not POC, but more kind of offtakes and kind of fill up that refining capacity?

Craig Miller

executive
#64

Yes. Okay. So I'll go with the first question. And Sayurie, do you want to do number two?

Sayurie Naidoo

executive
#65

Yes.

Craig Miller

executive
#66

And then Agit and Martin maybe talk about the opportunities around third parties. But the first answer is actually quite easy. No, we're not looking at doing any M&A, but let me unpack that a little bit more. I mean I think what we presented today, just the quality and the scale of the resource base that we have within our portfolio at Mogalakwena, Amandelbult, Mototolo, there's very little reason for us to go out and buy other PGM assets, which are potentially undercapitalized, that we've spent a good part of the last decade trying to offload because we wouldn't deploy capital to those assets. And so therefore, I think a real opportunity for us is deploying the capital we have back into those -- into our existing assets and really leveraging the value that we can create from those. So no, our focus is very much with the assets that we have and really realizing the value potential that comes from it.

Sayurie Naidoo

executive
#67

In terms of our leverage, as I said, that is really a ceiling. So the top end in terms of where we will go and where we're comfortable. In terms of -- as I said, we're still in a net cash position, and that includes the customer prepayment. Excluding the customer prepayment, we're still at about 0.5x net debt to EBITDA. And I think just in terms of if we see prices at a sustained lower level than we are currently, I think there are levers that we can pull. As I've highlighted in my CapEx slide, there are discretionary capital options that we could possibly pull back on. Furthermore, there's discretionary spend, OpEx, that we could probably reduce as well. And I think we can also be comfortable that if our ounces are loss-making, we will also take some hard action in terms of not putting loss-making ounces into the market. So I think in terms of the leverage ratio, we are quite comfortable at the 1x net debt to EBITDA.

Agit Singh

executive
#68

Yes. So the question around processing and refining capacity. So firstly, Mogalakwena is an amazing asset that's very rich in base metals. And with the work that's been planned by Willie and the mining team, there's definitely more material coming through. So on the slide that I showed, our EBITDA margins are 17 percentage points higher on processing our own material. So first of all, we want to make sure we have the capacity and we'll use our capacity for our own material. So that additional PGM, so base metal ounces -- tonnes that are coming through will be utilized and will be accommodated in our base metal refining capacity. When it comes to third-party concentrates and contracts around that, Martin will speak about that just now, I'm sure. But for us, it is about value. It's got to add value to our business. You've seen today that I presented the strategic advantage of the processing assets. There's a lot of effort that's gone into from an investment point of view. There's very different thinking that's gone into it from how we process, how we run it. And we believe or I believe that we've positioned ourselves in a very unique position in the market, okay? So we're not going to give away our processing capacity, okay? We are open to the business, but it's got to be for the right value that we add. And if the value is there to be obtained and achieved, then yes, we will look at taking it on. But it's not a volume decision, it's a value decision. Martin, is there anything you want to add to that?

Martin Poggiolini

executive
#69

No, you said most of it. But I think there's two parts to think about. Some of the historical contracts, and logically, there are some that are more economic than others, right? The less economic ones were structured under different arrangements at the time, and we'll look to either exit or renegotiate those in time. If we think more to your question that you asked is what about new entrants, I guess, it's hard for me to sort of get my head around why we would not be investing in our own assets and essentially just allowing a new entrant to process at our facilities when we just would -- if we're in that market, that incentivizes that production. We've just spoken about the full potential that we could have at Mogalakwena. So absent us being paid a return on the capital invested in that business, Agit, I think, pointed to how much a replacement would cost, I think the simple answer is no, that's not of interest to us. But anyone who wants to process that at us needs to actually understand there's economics in processing that need to be fulfilled.

Theto Maake

executive
#70

Hopefully answered. I didn't see any other hands in the room. Andrew, you can go on.

Andrew Snowdowne

analyst
#71

Andrew Snowdowne from Sanlam Investments. Just a quick one. I noticed in the last results, the turnover in trading was materially higher than usual, a lot of activity. Correct me if I'm wrong on that point. But does this speak to are we going to see this as the new norm in terms of just how much is traded? And the reason I'm asking this is, over the last 6-month period, you guys effectively brought 600,000 ounces to the market, and this was quite readily absorbed, if we think about it. You were above normalized inventory levels. At your results, you indicated that you now are at normal. In other words, you're not sitting on inventory, which can easily be liquidated. And to Hilton's point that in rhodium, what you see as inventory sometimes isn't there when you need the material. We have had the situation on Amandelbult. It's not fully recovered. Your guidance is unchanged, but it's at the low end of that guidance. What I'm trying to get at is from where we stand today, unless there's a step down in demand, it actually feels as if they might -- prices would have to react if there was a demand for material because there simply isn't that inventory at the producers to meet those contractual obligations. I'm not sure who wants to answer the question.

Craig Miller

executive
#72

Thanks, Andrew. Hilton, do you want to talk about some of the trading and then just sort of what we're seeing in the market at the moment?

Hilton Ingram

executive
#73

Yes. So look, we've got defined limits, right? We've got defined limits in terms of working capital, and we've got defined limits in what we can put at risk, what we call value at risk, right? And what you've seen over the period is, go back 3 or 4 years, everybody wanted solutions in rhodium and the value at risk on an ounce of rhodium was $1,000 an ounce, right? Our limits are unchanged. But today, your value at risk on an ounce of PGMs range between $30 and $60 an ounce. So that's given us the ability to do more within those confined limits. And it's not something we started yesterday, right? This has been a 10-year journey to get to where we are today. And to put what we're doing into perspective, there's 800 -- the London bullion market publishes a number every year, and they reckon there's north of 800 million ounces of PGMs traded in a year. So that gives you some context to what we're doing inside of the broader market.

Craig Miller

executive
#74

But in terms of just tightness of supply and therefore -- and the robustness of demand, Hilton.

Hilton Ingram

executive
#75

Yes, yes. So you've obviously read the papers. There were a few things that played out in the rhodium market in the last few weeks. U.S. and China car sales were higher than expected. That notice from the Ministry of Environment in China came out pointing towards tightening of legislation. And you saw the fiberglass prices go up. When fiberglass prices go up, then you want to have the best possible bushings you can have in place because it's all about cycle times. And so with those 3 things, you saw an increase in the demand prospects for rhodium. And then the interesting bit is people think that when Willie has a challenge, that ounces then -- refined ounces magically disappear, right? There's months pipeline between Willie and me. And so those things we can see coming from a long way off. So Amandelbult shortfalls weren't part of the driver of that. What the driver was, was South Africa has a shutdown in the Christmas break. That Christmas break works through the South African market into refined supply around about now. And so those upticks in positive outlook for rhodium, together with seasonal low supply in South Africa, met in the middle. And one supplier was -- one trader was surprised by the fact that we were on both sides of the market. So you've seen, as a result of that, an uptick in the price of rhodium, alluding to the fact that there isn't terribly much rhodium around. And I've talked you through our perspectives on above-ground stocks, too, which indicate that it's not around. So the challenge palladium has is the short positioning in palladium. But if that turns -- if the physical market sentiment turns, that will turn very quickly, and the palladium price as a result of that short positioning will move fast.

Craig Miller

executive
#76

And I think, Andrew, just to your point around what we were able to do last year as a result of the stability that we saw in downstream processing, yes, we were able to refine and sell more than what we produced from the mines. And it just assures me that we don't have another mine in some cupboard that we can actually bring to the market. And so therefore, going forward and in line with our guidance, you'll see that our M&C production broadly mirrors the refined production. So from our perspective, we are back in balance in terms of inventory levels. So therefore, it speaks to once again sort of our outlook in the market that it is tight, that the deficits are there and that there should be some form of price change into the future.

Theto Maake

executive
#77

Thank you. I think that brings us to the end of questions in the room, and I'm looking -- no Leroy, you can't ask your questions today. So we currently have 4 total questions onscreen. And amazingly, they are all to Agit. So I'm actually going to leave it to you because remember, he said, by the time he's done, he's made everyone experts in mass pull. So every question onscreen is about mass pull. I'm leaving it to the room as well as online to say, is it experts or something else? So the first question is from Andrew from Wellington. So his question is the Jameson cells, when were they commissioned? And similarly, was it 4? And are they all planned to be commissioned by H1 2025?

Agit Singh

executive
#78

The Jameson cells are being commissioned, and they are replacing the existing cleaner circuit at Mogalakwena North concentrator. There are 4 Jameson cells that are being commissioned as we speak. So that's the number, and they will be commissioned by the end of H1 2025.

Theto Maake

executive
#79

Okay. Perfect. And then the next question is from Richard. Agit, also to you. So the material from slag cleaning, is the ZAR 5 billion value the market value or lower cost and net realizable value?

Agit Singh

executive
#80

I'm going to pass that to Sayurie.

Sayurie Naidoo

executive
#81

I think that's for the counter to the room. Yes, so it is at net realizable value, which is -- so obviously, for when it will be processed post-2027 and will be discounted. So the ZAR 5 billion is a net realizable value.

Theto Maake

executive
#82

And then the next one is from Shashi from Citi. Has the cost benefit of mass pull strategy incorporated in 2025 cost guidance and ZAR 1 billion and ZAR 2 billion potential savings post-2025?

Agit Singh

executive
#83

Yes. So the operating cost benefits by Mortimer being on care and maintenance is actually built into our OpEx. Our capital rationalization work that we did last year that will obviously impact Mortimer with regards to rebuilds is built into our 2025 guidance as well.

Theto Maake

executive
#84

Okay. Perfect. And the last question for the day is from [ Abhishek from PIC ]. So what impact does the lower mass pull at Mogalakwena have on recoveries of nickel and copper in the ore? Fully acknowledge that there is not impact on PGM ounce recoveries. Also, is there any impact on concentrating cost? So one, impact on mass pull on base metals; and then two, is there any impact on concentrating cost?

Agit Singh

executive
#85

Yes. So I'm trying to debunk this myth in the industry right now. The mass pull -- grade mass pull recovery curve is not as steep as we think it is. So it's actually more around the grind. The Jameson cells are very particular to the Mogalakwena North concentrate or the ore because of highly altered material that it has as part of the makeup. And so the Jameson cells helps us significantly around it not competing for PGM and base metal flotation as well. So the short answer to this is no. It doesn't have any negative impact on the base metals like we have on the positive side of PGM recovery as well. In terms of costs, I've demonstrated some of the cost benefits that we get in the entire processing value chain. We removed 5,000 trucks from the system that comes at quite a good cost saving. We save 10% to 15% on the energy costs at the smelting operations. We save 10% to 15% around water. And we also have huge amounts of benefits around our power consumption at the smelting operations. So yes, there's huge, huge benefits around the mass pull work that we're doing at Mogalakwena that will impact positively down the value chain and at the concentrator as well.

Theto Maake

executive
#86

Okay. Is that it? So ladies and gentlemen, I believe with those answers, it actually brings us to the end of the formal proceedings of our Capital Markets Day. And thank you once again to all the speakers, as well as Norman, who is still sitting out there. We are believing that you will continue to support us in our partnership as we venture into this new era as an independent PGM producer going forward. So with that said, reiterating what I said earlier on, one, the session was streamed. The actual recording will be available in the next day or so. Presentation is already on our website, and we look forward to any other questions that you may have. So with that said, our executives, Sayurie, Craig and Yvonne will go and sit with the media for 30 minutes or so, but the rest of us can actually continue with much needed refreshments until 6:30. Thank you once again.

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