Vardhman Special Steels Limited (VSSL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 3, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Vardhman Special Steels Limited Q2 FY '26 Earnings Conference Call hosted by Adfactors PR. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Samruddhi Bane from Adfactors PR Investor Relations team. Thank you, and over to you, ma'am.
Samruddhi Bane
attendeeThank you, Sagar. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of the entire management, I thank all the participants present on the call and wish you a very warm welcome to our Q2 and H1 FY '26 earnings conference call. To guide us through the results today, we have with us the senior management team of Vardhman Special Steels Limited represented by Mr. Sachit Jain, Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Sanjeev Singla, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. R. K. Rewari, Executive Director; Soumya Jain -- Ms. Soumya Jain, Executive Director; and Mrs. Sonam Dhingra, Company Secretary. Before we begin, please note that this conference may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on beliefs, opinions and expectations of the company as on the date of this call. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. We will commence the call with the opening brief by Mr. Sachit Jain, Chairman and Managing Director; followed by the financial highlights from Mr. Sanjeev Singla, Chief Financial Officer of the company. After this, we will open the forum for the Q&A. With that, I will now hand over the call to Mr. Sachit sir to share his opening comments. Over to you, sir.
Sachit Jain
executiveThank you. A very good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very much for being with us on our call today. And apologies for postponing the call from last week to today as our entire -- all 3 Board members were traveling. Mr. Rewari and Soumya were in Thailand, meeting customers, and I was in Chennai, again, meeting customers. So yes, last quarter has been a very eventful quarter. One, raw material prices have been trending downwards, and therefore, the price reduction also has happened. October also will be a further price reduction because costs have already come down. We'll be discussing with the OEs, how much is the quantum of production. Our raw material position is quite benign, full availability of raw material. So we are not facing any problems anywhere whatsoever. Board, there have been changes in the Board. Our Chairman, Mr. Rajeev Gupta stepped down from the Board after 3 terms, 2 terms as Independent Director and 1 term of 3 years as Non-Independent Director and Chairman of the company. Also Mr. Sanjoy Bhattacharyya, long Board member stepped down after his 2 terms as Independent Director ended. In their place, we've had 2 new Board members, Mr. Dinkar Gupta, retired NIA Chief of India as well as retired DGP of Punjab; and Mr. Nishant Arya, a young industrialist in the auto component space dealing with the major auto components -- auto OEs in India as well as globally. And I have taken over as Chairman after Mr. Rajeev Gupta's wonderful term as Chairman. The other highlights have been the preferred renewal of the technical assistance agreement for 3 years from 1 October '25 to 30 September '28. Now, as you are aware that with Aichi, our technical agreement is always for a stance of 3 years, for a period of 3 years, to be renewed. And some changes are always done based on the requirements of the business at that point in time. Now, for example, the technical parts of the technical assistance have come down, more of marketing support is required as well as quality support is required to improve quality further for the newer requirements and the most sophisticated requirements of the OEs, as well as the planning for the new project have begun and Aichi's full support is there. So that has also been added to the technical assistance agreement. Now, we will have 5 people from Aichi posted in India. Earlier, we were 3. One new person, senior person for quality as well as technical transfer from old unit to a new unit and one person for marketing will be joining from 1st of January. So also Aichi's increase of stake by -- to 25% signifies much stronger commitment more than the capital infused. It's the commitment to India and commitment to VSS, that is the important part. I was in Japan for the signing of the ceremony. We had very fruitful discussions with our partners as well as we had a press conference in Japan. For me, first time attending a press conference in Japan regarding our JV. As regards CapEx, the Kocks Block was successfully commissioned earlier this year and several production now for almost 7 months production has been running -- 6 months production has been running. So successfully, this has been a very strong implementation by the KOCKS team as well as Danieli and the other machinery manufacturers as well as our maintenance, erection team and the production teams. As regards the new reheating furnace, which will increase our production, this is getting commissioned by first quarter of -- last quarter of this year. So from 1st of April, we will have full impact of the new reheating furnace, which will enable increased production of our rolling mill, which means our job work quantum will start coming down. And therefore, the loss of profit on the material that was sent outside for job work will come down substantially from first quarter of next year. The new NDT line is in progress. By June, it should be commissioned. With this, we will have eliminated any limitation as regards making quality for 4-wheelers. As our first NDT line is getting nearer full capacity utilization, it was imperative to make the second NDT line, and that should be commissioned by June as per plan. The other big change that happened last quarter is, this new trend towards circular economy and Maruti Suzuki has been the first company, in our knowledge, that has taken concrete steps in this area, where we'll be buying CRC scrap from Maruti plants, and we will make steel and send it back to the vendors of Maruti in a closed loop, which will be a traceability of material. So this process started in the month of September. This will strengthen our relationships further with Maruti. And as they go towards their green initiatives and circular economy initiatives, we are there step-by-step walking along with them. As for the greenfield steel plant is concerned, we are in the last stages of finalizing our land, and planning for the plant is going on in full swing in terms of machinery selection, layouts -- machinery configuration, sorry, and layouts and specifications of all the machines. All that's going on and going on track. Solar power plant, this was supposed to have been commissioned by June of this year. As we had shared that the transmission line was still incomplete because some farmers have gone to court and stay had been granted. In the last 4 months, all the stays have been vacated. And now all hurdles for completing the transmission line are over. And hopefully, within this month, latest December, the transmission line will be complete, and we should be able to take advantage of the solar power plant, which will also lead to our carbon footprint coming down from 0.72 to about 0.48 and 2, since the solar power is cheaper than the grid power. Our power cost will also be lower, which will lead to enhanced margins moving ahead. And we've already shared with you that we have been discussing with our partner, Aichi regarding new forging line. And we hope to finalize our plans by January. So hopefully, in the January con call, we should be able to share details time lines, what are we planning to do, investments and all that, as we had shared in the previous con call, that will take us about 6 months. So we are on track. And hopefully, by January, we should be able to share the details of that. The other thing that we have done is, we've done a carbon footprint study by DNV. Earlier, we have done by CII, but we realized that CII is good as far as Indian customers are concerned. But for global customers, DNV is more recognized so that has been done. The figures are almost identical with the figures that CII calculated, so 0.72 and 0.73 was the difference from one to the other. So we are on track with that. And Aichi funds have been utilized to repay our WCDL of INR 150 crores and the balance funds have been invested in money market funds and liquid funds, which has led to a reduction of finance costs and therefore, PAT improvement in the second quarter. I'll pass over the line to Mr. Singla, our CFO, to take you through the numbers, and then we are available for Q&A.
Sanjeev Singla
executiveThank you, sir. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, I want to share that this quarterly results have been taken from our SAP system, which we have gone live with the latest version of SAP S/4HANA from 1st of July 2025. So all the modules have been taken in this S/4HANA integrated solution. Earlier, we were working on 2 different solutions. One was SAP ECC and [ Node ], so it is one integrated solution, resulting in more strong controls and effective management system. So coming to the numbers. For this quarter, our total sales in terms of quantity is 55,500 tonnes, as against 59,000 tonnes, resulting in revenue of INR 432 crores. Year-on-year, 12.64% decline. So it's a combination of both. One is quantity, which is down by 4,000 tonnes, and then price reductions, which is continuously happening from last year. Every quarter, the prices are declining because of decrease in the input cost also. So as a result, our EBITDA , including other income is INR 56 crores as against INR 48 crores in the corresponding quarter of last year, a 16% increase. EBITDA per tonne is INR 10,000 per tonne. And our PAT is INR 34.5 crores, as against INR 26 crores in the last year. It is proportionately higher than the increase in EBITDA because our financial cost has come down because of the funds infusion by Aichi Steel. And on a half-yearly basis, our total revenue for the half year is INR 865 crores, and EBITDA -- total EBITDA is INR 96 crores, almost the same as in the last year. EBITDA per tonne is INR 8,600 per tonne, and PAT is INR 54 crores against INR 52 crores last year. So that's all on the numbers. And now I request to open for the question-answer session.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Deepak Pandey from Sagun Capital.
Deepak Pandey
analystCongrats on a good set of numbers. Sir, a few questions. Firstly, on the forging plant that we are putting up, can you throw some color on what sort of business segmental demand are we looking to cater? Is it going to be focused on autos only?
Sachit Jain
executiveYes. As of now, as far as this plant is concerned, we are only in auto. And therefore, our forging line that we're looking at will also be focused on auto. And we will be trying to see that if we can make a part that is going into EVs as well. So -- but all those are under discussion just now. So beyond this, at this point, we don't have more details to be shared.
Deepak Pandey
analystGot it. Secondly, sir, some light on where do we stand in terms of market share for bright bars in terms of capacity and then the sales volume? And are we seeing any tailwinds currently with the auto sector growing? Any green shoots from the customers?
Sachit Jain
executiveYes. So market share-wise, we will be amongst the smaller players. So there is enough scope for us to grow as we go ahead. But we would be very strong in market share with the high-end customers. So there are customers at the top end where we will be 60% to 70% share of business of some of the key customers. And some of these customers deal with the entire gamut of automakers. So that way, wherever high-quality sophisticated products and reliability is concerned, we would be the customer of -- the vendor of choice. As regards -- I'm sorry, the other question you had was -- so there is enough scope for us to grow. And the second part of the question, can you repeat that, please?
Deepak Pandey
analystSir, any green shoots from the clients in terms of auto sector tailwinds that currently we are having?
Sachit Jain
executiveYes. So those signals we are getting that 2-wheelers sales, of course, have increased and therefore, demand for 2-wheelers will remain good as well as demand for smaller cars will remain good. This year, the benefit is not too much because the sales were lower initially waiting for this GST reduction. So the full impact of these changes we hope to get next year. But yes, these are all very positive changes. And I think the government has done its bit in giving the industry a fillip. And overall, there is optimism in everybody that the next financial year volumes should be pretty good.
Deepak Pandey
analystGot it. And sir, in the last earnings call, we mentioned that there is some competition that we are seeing undercutting of prices. Is that a similar thing? Or has it eased up a bit in this quarter?
Sachit Jain
executiveThat continues. That continues. And the only way for us to counter that is to continuously improve our quality, get in better products as well as look internally to reduce costs further. As I said, with this new reheating furnace coming in, we will ourself see a major cost reduction, one, because of the outside material, which is currently going on job work. The profits that we are passing on to our vendors, we will be able to take those inside as well as cost of loading, unloading, transportation and so on. And secondly, with this new reheating furnace coming in, our yields will become better because of 2 reasons. Our losses on heating and scale loss will come down as well as losses on end cuts because we're going to have bigger billets. So all told, we're going to have -- we're going to see a decent cost reduction as well as enhanced capacity because after this reheating furnace, our rolling capacities will hit 270,000 tonnes of output, which is what our target is.
Deepak Pandey
analystThat's very helpful. Sir, last question would be on the split between bright bars and the black bars for Q2? And any color on the split for FY '26 in total?
Sachit Jain
executiveSo a lot of the bright bars were actually going in for exports to the U.S. not directly from us, but from our customers. And as the U.S. exports have got affected because of the tariff issue. So clearly, that has affected our volume in bright bars. And therefore, our bright bar volumes are down. If things were normal on the bright bar front, we would have had higher sales this quarter than what we were able to achieve.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of [ Parth Patel from Patel Investment ].
Unknown Analyst
analystI just wanted to check that the EBITDA per tonne has been improving sequentially. So for the next coming quarters, can you give me a stable EBITDA per tonne that we can take into the modeling?
Sachit Jain
executiveOur declared range was INR 7,000 to INR 10,000 a tonne. And we have said that from next financial year, we should be up in the range to INR 8,000 to INR 11,000. So we stand by that as of now.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Got it. And just for the sake of repetition, can you let me know how the Aichi collaboration is going on? And is there going to be any sort of internal technology transfers? And what's the status of land that we were looking?
Sachit Jain
executiveSo the collaboration with Aichi is going very well. That's why we have signed the third agreement. And we have increased the number of people who are posted here. They have invested INR 385 crores to increase their stake to 25%. So all these are signals that they feel the partnership is going very well. And in terms of specifics, let me share with you what has changed. Our product quality has improved because of know-how transferred by them. Problem-solving approach has improved. Our understanding of certain specific aspects of quality have improved. The overall culture has improved and customer acceptability and access has improved significantly. So, for example, the Toyota approval for global operations happened, I would say, only because of their availability, plus it's all the other OEs, they are fully helpful and they are helping us get those approvals. Even some of the other Toyota Group companies, which are Tier 1s, which we are supplying to other Indian OEs like Tata and Mahindra, those all are coming basically thanks to Aichi. So a lot of support in marketing is coming in. Maruti also, the localization project of Maruti, where we'll be replacing imported steel with steel made at VSS. That project also, I don't think without Aichi support that project we wouldn't have made much headway. So all in all, we are having significant benefits, thanks to them.
Unknown Analyst
analystGot it, sir. And about the land parcel?
Sachit Jain
executiveLand parcel, we are in the last stages of finalizing. So hopefully, by the time we have the next con call, we should have the land with us. But this is -- please understand this is land that we are purchasing through from farmers. So with the best of intention, best of land, sometimes this could get further off because there are a large number of farmers and a large number of land owners. So within each land parcel also -- within each family, there could be 2 or 3 family members, somebody may be overseas and so on. This is a slow and serious process, cumbersome process. And then you have to go through 30-year records of each land parcel and you need land contiguity and you need land of a particular length to put a new rolling mill, we need 0.5 kilometer in length and 300 meters in width. So you need that kind of land parcel also. So all those things have already been seen and we are in the process of finalizing this land. So hopefully, by next quarter much of this should be done.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo we can expect 2 quarters maximum?
Sachit Jain
executiveYes. In all probability, this quarter it should be done.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Ritwik Sheth from One Up Financial.
Sachit Jain
executiveAnd sorry, before -- Ritwik before you raise your question, the time line of our project completion as of now remains July '29. So that doesn't change with the longer time and stickiness to get the land. As of now, we are quite committed to July '29 for commissioning the this plant. Yes, Ritwik go ahead, please.
Ritwik Sheth
analystSir, a few questions. Sir, firstly, just continuing from the previous question.
Sachit Jain
executiveRitwik, can you be a little louder?
Ritwik Sheth
analystYes. Is this better?
Sachit Jain
executiveYes, much better.
Ritwik Sheth
analystYes. So, sir, have we spent anything on the new plant in the current half? Because of CapEx.
Sachit Jain
executiveNot for the plant, but we have bought a parcel of land for 50 acres, which -- then we could not complete further. So yes, we have bought some land, which will be disposed of at the right stage or we are talking to a couple of forging companies who want to come into India because a lot of other global companies are also getting very excited with the idea of this kind of steel plant and are examining putting up forging plants near us. So for now, we'll keep this land for some more time that this land parcel can be sold to a prospective forging company. Otherwise, there are other buyers approaching us for this land. So this land that we bought will be disposed of suitably.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. And what is...
Sachit Jain
executiveBut apart from that no other...
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. And what is the amount that we spent on this?
Sachit Jain
executiveSo we've invested about INR 70 crores.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. INR 70 crores. Okay. Sure. And sir, my second question is on the deemed exports for Aichi. So if you can give us the brief color on what was that in H1? And any signs of higher volume going forward?
Sachit Jain
executiveWe haven't shared -- no, we haven't shared those figures what business we're doing with Aichi. But overall, suffice it to say that the exports to Aichi are a bit lower than what we had estimated because of Toyota -- Thailand market being subdued. And within Thailand, Toyota sales were also subdued compared to their original plans. And the third factor which came in is the Japanese yen weakened significantly compared to when we started this deal. So yen has moved to JPY 1.45, JPY 1.50. So then steel from India is almost as expensive as Japanese steel in Thailand. And on Indian steel, there is a 5% custom duty. So yes, it's taken a little more time. So therefore, seeing that the lifting of product was not up to the mark, we have -- we are bringing forward the forging plan to see that the amount of steel that Aichi had said that they'll be able to use from VSS, we will partly make up through the forging business.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. Got it. And sir, a few quarters ago, you had mentioned that we had given material for approval to a European OEM. So any update on that further? How was the first response from their end? And -- any signs of any orders coming in?
Sachit Jain
executiveThe initial feedback is very good. The initial feedback is very good. So they had a further visit again. I had visited Europe this year. They visited us again this year, ordered it again. They are very happy with the way things are going. They have suggested some technical changes for us to make, which should be made by March of this year, and then we'll be ready. So hopefully, next financial year, the business should start.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. Great. And so, this would be on a long-term contract basis or it would be on a rolling basis, the new orders that come in?
Sachit Jain
executiveNormally on a rolling basis, I don't think we have any contract with any OE as of now. Businesses are all regular because they are all repeatable businesses.
Ritwik Sheth
analystSure. And sir, just one last question. The recycling that we'll start from procuring scrap from Maruti's scrap plant. Would there be any cost savings for us apart from the synergy and getting new business from Maruti?
Sachit Jain
executiveNo, no cost savings.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. So scrap would be at market.
Sachit Jain
executiveSorry, this is not scrap from their scrapping plant. This is scrap from their manufacturing plant. Scrap that it generates through the manufacturing process.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay.
Sachit Jain
executiveFrom their scrap plant of Maruti, they are anyway consuming 100% of their scrap that they generate.
Ritwik Sheth
analystSure. And sir, any guidance on volume figures for FY '27 and CapEx figure?
Sachit Jain
executiveFY '27 as of now, we hope to do about 245,000 tonnes.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. And CapEx?
Sachit Jain
executiveI'm sorry? No, there is no major CapEx. The existing CapEx plan already announced is only the implementation of that.
Ritwik Sheth
analystOkay. For the new greenfield plant, right?
Sachit Jain
executiveNo, no, no, no. New greenfield, we have not announced anything, no plans of investments. This is for the existing plant. We already had announced CapEx plan. Now that will get -- will be -- only that is ongoing. The major chunks of that were, one, the Kocks Block, which is done, so no more CapEx on Kocks Block. The reheating furnace will also be done by March of this year -- March of this financial year. So again, no further CapEx on the reheating furnace. And the NDT line was announced already. So that will be done by June. So that will be continuing. There will be certain other investments in the R&D lab, ETP plant and as well as there will be some investments being made in the fuel extraction system, improving the fuel extraction system to handle the increased production. So -- and marginal CapEx here and there will be there. But all major CapEx will be finished in the ensuing financial year. There's no new announcements.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Radha from B&K Securities.
Radha Agarwalla
analystSir, this quarter steel prices are down by 11% on a Y-o-Y basis. Hence, we can see the benefit of that in the raw material prices. However, the realizations are down only by 3% Y-o-Y, which shows that the pricing benefit is not yet passed on to the customers. So will it be passed on in the next quarter and hence, the next quarter gross margins are expected to be lower than this quarter?
Sachit Jain
executiveSo prices will be lower in next quarter than this year, that part is correct. And it would be correct to assume that there's a possibility that the EBITDA margin for third quarter will be a bit lower than second quarter. That part is correct. That's why we always give a range of that rather than a precise amount. We will be within the range and there will be a reduction.
Radha Agarwalla
analystOkay. Sir, second question was that what are the extra processes that is required to make bright bars over black bars? And because of these extra processes, what is the incremental EBITDA per tonne that is made in bright bars?
Sachit Jain
executiveSo the extra processes is that first, we have to straighten the material, then there is turning operation, we call it peeling, which is what gives the color, which we call it the bright bar. Then there is centerless grinding after that. And then normally, we have an inspection and testing and then we cut to size and then pack.
Radha Agarwalla
analystSorry, sir.
Sachit Jain
executiveThere is no defined increase. We have not shared what is the increase in EBITDA, thanks to bright bar because there's no way to compute that because the prices are specific to customers and they're not necessarily linked to the black bar prices and there's a standard increase in EBITDA because of bright bar. Sometimes at the cost of being in business and sometimes it adds to the profitability.
Operator
operatorRadha ma'am, does that answer your question? Ma'am, we are not able to hear anything from your line. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of [ Meera Mittal ], an investor.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeSir, could you please elaborate on the key growth drivers that you foresee over the next 3 years, like domestic demand revival, export opportunities or any aftermarket segment contributing to your growth strategy?
Sachit Jain
executiveSo overall market growth because Indian auto still is expected to go up to about 10 million cars, or that's one estimation, or 8 million cars is the other estimation by 2035. So towards -- going towards those numbers, the numbers will keep growing with the growth in the economy. So that's one part. Second driver will be some more approvals that are the development process coming in. So that will be the second driver. The third driver will be export of components again coming back. As I said in an earlier question that in the second quarter, we have seen a drop because of drop in exports to the U.S. because of the tariffs. So as they get resolved in the next 3 to 6 months somewhere, so that would be another driver. And lastly, some of the things that have already been approved, they are going to start from sometime next year and beyond. Plus, we were also going a bit slow because we had capacity constraints. After June of next year, those capacity constraints would largely have gone. And therefore, we can also a little freely produce material. Our [ subsidy ] is going to become better. Today, we have long lead times because of shortage of rolling capacity. All those problems will get resolved by June. So we should have a better chance to sell. And the other major drivers are going to be green steel. That is very clearly something that most customers are talking about and circular economy, which we already started in a small way with Maruti Suzuki. So as Maruti Suzuki increases the percentage of business they want to cover under circular economy, that will be one driver. Other OEs, they want to start the circular economy, that will be the second driver and green steel is the third driver. We would be the best placed among the auto steel company as regards to green steel. The European companies coming to us are coming to us only because we have green steel.
Operator
operatorOur next follow-up question comes from the line of Radha from B&K Securities. Our next question comes from the line of [ Nimesh Pandya ], an investor.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeSo basically, I have 2 questions. My first question is, what portion of your H1 revenue was contributed by the exports? Which regions and product categories were the key drivers of this export growth?
Sachit Jain
executiveExport is not a very large amount. I think it's about 6% to 7% or 8%. It doesn't change from quarter-to-quarter.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeOkay. Sir, my second question is, you had earlier mentioned the plans to raise debt for your upcoming plant. When do you expect to complete this debt raising?
Sachit Jain
executiveSorry, could you repeat that?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYou had earlier mentioned plans to raise debt for the upcoming plant. Am I audible? Hello?
Sachit Jain
executiveYes. So there are no plans of raising debt for now because we have enough equity line with us. So when we need the cash as the cash flows are required. So in all probably, the debt will get raised in the year 2027, partly 2026 end, but mostly in 2027. So as you can see, we plan to keep a conservative balance sheet with the new plant because we have seen many companies who go aggressive on their funding and go on high debt equity and then land up into NCLT and so on. So taking a lesson from that and as a group, we have a long-term approach, conservative approach. So we will have a lower debt. We have already shared that we will never allow debt equity to go beyond 1:1. Our comfortable figure is 0.75 as the upper end and target will be around 0.5. So even with this new plant, we expect to be only touching 0.75 for a brief period, if at all, and then coming down quickly to 0.5.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Prateek Dugar from Intelsense.
Prateek Dugar
analystFirst of all, congratulations to the management for a great set of numbers. And I think a lot of initiative has been taken with the Aichi partnership to give us a good growth path for the company. I would just like to ask the management like what are the sustainable margins that we see for our business? That's the first question.
Sachit Jain
executiveAs we said, from next year, we hope to have between INR 8,000 to INR 11,000 EBITDA per tonne.
Prateek Dugar
analystOkay, sir. And do we see like right now, I think...
Sachit Jain
executiveAll going well, in the next 2 years after that, we hope to increase it further, but we can't -- but that is a hope. INR 8,000 to INR 11,000, there is a reasonable confidence that we'll be in that range from next year.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Vinit Thakur from Plus91 Asset Management Company.
Vinit Thakur
analystI'd just like to know the outlook of our industry as a whole. What do you think would be down next 2 years with the green steel demand going up or no? What do you think about that, sir?
Sachit Jain
executiveVery difficult to predict in the next year or 2. But over the next 5-year period, we expect a good demand because of all these factors. Year or 2, very, very difficult to predict because these are trends which are -- everybody is talking about. The first traction we have seen is from Maruti for the circular economy initiative, which we started last month. This is the first initiative from any OE that we have seen. And secondly is the European OEs that are coming to us that is happening for the green steel. But till the Government of India cracks the whip a little bit and give some targets, very difficult for us to predict when the movement of these green will have an impact. So when I'm saying that we'll be improving our EBITDA per tonne to INR 8,000 to INR 11,000 or a little beyond that, we are not taking any impact of these factors, which are beyond our control. If green steel becomes a reality in India and becomes a requirement as it should, then there will be a massive boost in terms of demand and therefore, ability to improve margins. But that is not in our control. That may happen 3 years from now, that may happen 5 years from now. If they just remain talk, we don't know. As of now, what we do hear is that, there is seriousness towards this.
Vinit Thakur
analystOkay. Sir, I had one more question. So since the government has given the target of 300 million tonnes by FY 2030, do you think it would affect you positively or like would have incremental growth on your revenue or your cost margins?
Sachit Jain
executiveWe are very -- see, these questions are more relevant to a JSW or a Tata Steel or ArcelorMittal, which are at 40 million, 50 million, 60 million bigger target. We are a small company. Our target is to reach up to 0.8 million tonnes.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of [ Aniket Ratkar ], an investor.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeSo sir, I just want to understand in terms of the strategic outlook, can you throw some light on the reheating furnace upgrade?
Sachit Jain
executiveReheating furnace is a higher -- so it is part of the process. We already have a reheating furnace. So basically, when you make steel, it comes out from the casting in the form of billets. Those billets then get cooled down, but you can't roll cold billets. So they have to be heated again. That machine, which does the reheating of billets is called the reheating furnace. So we already had a reheating furnace. There were 2 issues with that. One was it had a smaller capacity, and that was the bottleneck which would not allow us to increase production in our rolling mill. And second, it had a walking hearth furnace, and we are -- which leads to some quality issues. So we are moving to a bigger furnace and a walking beam furnace, so which means the quality will improve, which means our rejections and repair, rework costs will come down and our rejection should also come down. That is one part. And our capacity will go up. And the third, we'll be increasing our billet size from 4.2 meters to 5.2 meters. And both sides of a billet are cut as scrap. So on 4.2 meters, we were cutting out scrap. We will be cutting out scrap at 5.2 meters, which will reduce the total amount of scrap that we generate internally, and therefore, our yield will go up, which will all lead to cost savings. So there is production improvement, quality improvement and cost reduction, all 3 aspects.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeOkay. Okay. So sir, you were saying the capacity is fully utilized in terms of the reheating furnace upgrade. So is there any plan to expand the capacity in this?
Sachit Jain
executiveYes, yes. That's what I'm saying this is new furnace, then from 200,000 tonnes, which is our current capacity, we'll be able to go up to 270,000 tonnes.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeOkay. And sir, in terms of our revenue and margin...
Sachit Jain
executiveOur rolling mill will go up. And therefore, revenue will also improve because we'll be able to produce more material. And two, our margin will go up because our costs will come down with the new reheating furnace.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeOkay. Okay. Got it, sir. And sir, one last question. In terms of revenue and margin mix, how do you envision that revenue and margin mix evolve by FY '28 across our rolling mills and bright bar?
Sachit Jain
executiveFY '28, we expect to hit 270,000 tonnes, which is our capacity. And EBITDA per tonne, INR 8,000 to INR 11,000 we are quite confident. And then we hope by then we will be able to increase this range from INR 8,000 to INR 11,000 maybe INR 8,000 to INR 12,000 or INR 9,000 to INR 12,000. So we expect to see a bigger margin, but very difficult to predict so far advance. So the confidence level that we have is INR 8,000 to INR 11,000. So if you see the lower end of that, that means 270,000 tonnes, we were able to achieve that figure. So INR 216 crores at the lower end is what the EBITDA should be on 270,000 tonnes, it can go up to 300,000 tonnes -- about INR 300 crores. But I'm saying by then, we will be able to give a better forecast as we get closer to that figure.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our next follow-up question comes from the line of Radha from B&K Securities.
Radha Agarwalla
analystSir, what is the incremental cost per tonne of the extra processes that happens in bright bars over black bars?
Sachit Jain
executiveWe don't share those numbers.
Radha Agarwalla
analystSir, generally for the industry, how much...
Sachit Jain
executiveI haven't looked at industry numbers, so I don't know. And it's 25% -- roughly our bright bar is between 20% to 25% and black bar is about 75% to 80% roughly.
Radha Agarwalla
analystSir, last question. In your previous calls, you had indicated that you will start supplying to auto OEs directly. So sir, actually, the products that you...
Sachit Jain
executiveYes, we already discussed that. I'm sorry?
Radha Agarwalla
analystYes, sir. So OEs usually buy these...
Sachit Jain
executiveFor gas. This is for gas, and this is what we discussed a little bit earlier in the call of import substitution where the OE was directly importing steel from Japan, that steel is likely to come to us. So that approval process has been done. Now the question is they have to take a decision when will they do the switching over. And this will be the first case where we're supplying directly to an OE. Otherwise, normally, we supply to Tier 1s or sometimes Tier 2s.
Operator
operatorAs there are no further questions from participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Sachit Jain
executiveLadies and gentlemen, thank you so much for having interest in our company. One thing which is very interesting for us is that, since I came to this business in 2010, we have been continuously investing in this plant. Now thanks to those continuous investments, we have reached from 50,000 tonnes of production. We hope to reach 270,000 tonnes of capacity by next year and filling up the capacity in 2 to 3 years. After this, we should hopefully end our CapEx cycle as far as this plant is concerned. There is one idea which we are working on, which is, if we can go even beyond this capacity levels. But that idea, once we are able to test it out, then we will share that they require further CapEx. But that is only if this idea works out. Otherwise, as far as we are concerned, this plant is now largely done. The future CapEx will largely go into the new plant and the forging business. The announcement of the forging business will happen by Jan. And as of now, the target commissioning of the forging line is also before July '29. So both these things, which will happen simultaneously, the forging line as well as the new plant should happen simultaneously, but we'll have more details when we have our January con call. So thank you very much, and we look forward to your remaining with us as we go -- continue on this journey. Thank you.
Operator
operatorThank you. On behalf of Adfactors PR, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.
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