VNV Global AB (publ) (VNV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 11, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Björn von Sivers
executiveAll right. Welcome, everybody, to VNV Global's Conference Call for Second Quarter 2023. Per Brilioth VNV Global's Global CEO, will kick us off by going through NAV per developments during the quarter. After per section I'll run through the main NAV drivers and movements for the quarter. And before we finish the call, with the Q&A, we will also do a more general deep dive into VNV Global's approach to valuation of unlisted investments and look at the top names of the portfolio in aggregate in a bit more detail. From a valuation perspective as per June 30. And as always, if you have any questions, please type them through Zoom's chat function or Q&A function, and we will address them towards the end of the call. And with that, I'll leave the floor to CEO, Per Brilioth. Please go ahead.
Per Brilioth
executiveThank you, Bjorn, and welcome, everyone, from me too. I'll -- yes, Dennis is running the slides. This will kick us off still pretty much the same portfolio. We'll come back to a lot of details around how this NAV stacks up, et cetera. But if you sort of take this point of the NAV and compare it to start of 2012, the annual IRR is 17.5%. So that's the update on this page. Going to the next page, Dennis. So the NAV as of the end of June now is $725 million, that works out with listed and Swedish crowns. So I tend to look at the SEK number, which is just under SEK 60 per share in NAV. So the actual NAV is up a little bit during the quarter because we did this financing, the rights issue to fund the acquisition of shares in BlaBlaCar. But if you take it on a per share basis, it's down. Now the fact that we issued some stock below NAV in the rights issue is, of course, a drag on the NAV per share, but then there are other things that are -- that sort of make up this. Of course, we bought BlaBlaCar shares at a very attractive price. So there's been a slight uplift in that. That's helpful. But then there's two sort of main drags, and we'll come back to a lot of more detail on this. So Gett is down. And of course, Babylon essentially went to 0 as we sort of -- or I elaborate a lot on and also lessons from that in my intro to the quarterly report. But as usual, if you go 1 page, ahead Dennis, then you -- this last sort of green bar is the SEK 60 per share. which is roughly the same as where we ended in March, but at least on this big picture and -- but we still trade at SEK 20 or around SEK 20, so that's just under 70% discount. I think 67% discount, which is large. And I don't think -- I mean, if we elaborate on why that is, of course, sentiment around the sector we're in, which is tech companies, which are typically sort of young and typically sort of got a few years down the road to becoming cash flow positive from -- at least that's the picture you get from a distant that the market in general has at this space. And that we can't do much about. But what we can do something about is to make sure that everything around sort of VNV and our portfolio and at the VNV sort of level that return cash outflows into cash inflows. So part of the work we're doing is that we're making sure that our portfolio companies are turning around to becoming profitable. And as we point out in the report and as we will provide you with a lot more detail on is that, that's going in the right direction. So cutting costs and focusing more on profitability, et cetera. has had -- has resulted in that a larger part of our portfolio is EBITDA positive now than it was a quarter ago, and that will continue in that direction. So I think the actual figure is that now we have 53% of the portfolio as EBITDA positive. If you include Voi, which is also EBITDA positive now is at 66%, but Voi also owns the e-scooters. So you got to look at EBIT, and it's not quite there yet on EBIT. And -- but that's all up since the last quarter, and I endeavor to say that, that will continue. And then as you keep on doing that, then eventually, it actually becomes cash inflows to not only the companies but then also to the shareholders. And the other big thing, of course, is the cash inflow versus outflow at the VNV level, and that gets us to sort of what I dare to say, sort of priority #1 highest on to-do list at this desk and at colleague's desk is to make sure that we -- it's related to the debt that we have outstanding, which, as you know, is two bonds while maturing pretty much exactly years' time or so summer of 2024, and then the final part matures in the early part of 2025. And so as you'll sort of remember, and I think we've talked about a lot, our financial strategy is not to have any debt. We allow ourselves some debt when we have a clear path to an exit in the portfolio. So we see it more as a bridge than something that we don't have debt to sort of juice up the return profile of our portfolio with leverage. That's not the way we look at it. This is -- we put on this depth in order to have -- to sort of bridge to an exit. And we do have exits in the portfolio. And we are working on those. And despite what you may think that like how is it possible to sell something when the market is volatile, but that's -- well, it's not done until it's done, but we -- I feel confident that we will sort of retire this debt with proceeds from exits in the portfolio. So making sure that our portfolio companies are becoming profitable, and that's -- that work is showing good results and then making sure that we sell some stuff in the portfolio, capitalize on those exits and retire the debt with those proceeds. Before letting my colleagues, I just kind of touch a little bit upon the portfolio, if go to the next page. So the actual structure of the portfolio is pretty similar to what you have been used to. But just touching upon a couple of these names and what's been going on during the course of this quarter. So of course, BlaBlaCar, the big thing with BlaBlaCar is our activity in the name. We talked about this in the last quarterly report because that came out around about the time when we're doing this. So our stake in the company has gone up to just under 14%, a little bit above 14%, if you exclude sort of some of the employee options that they have and a little bit under 14%, if you -- on a fully diluted basis, but we'll see if those options get exercised or not. But very bullish on the company. So we think that this is probably the right figure to think about because we think the value of the company will be going up over the coming years. So I'd like to think that this figure is the right one. But other than that, I think the company is doing well. I mean we cover it in the report, you will see in that. But this year, we see them delivering a record EUR 250 million in revenues. And so strong and they during last year, as you know, I think we've touched upon many times before, they doubled revenues, doubled gross profit, there EBITDA positive this year as a full year. And so the company as such is performing very well, and we're very happy to have been able to purchase these shares at what we think is a very attractive price. And there will be -- we see the company from the mark we have it on now to delivering our sort of targeted returns as going forward. So -- and doing that at a very low risk profile, given that they are profitable and that they have a large net cash on the balance sheet that it is a very established company and that it's like a broken record, I'm talking about that this is the business model in our portfolio, that's the most reminiscent of classifieds and where we already see patches of the company delivering upon classified type of margins. So very strong indeed. And on Voi, so here, we're -- I mean, super enthusiastic, as usual, I was going to say, but I mean, the company is really, really delivering now. This is the first EBITDA positive quarter. I mean then you're looking at I mean this company won't get to sort of the 60% of classified -- sort of best-in-class classified EBITDA margins. But it's like we've said before, it should be able to get to half of that, and we're seeing sort of some markets doing that this year, and that gets you to a place where you also get very close to the sort of earnings lines that actually matters here, which is EBIT. And so very strong indeed, we're super excited that having lost London. When London issued its first sort of licenses to do scooters. They actually beat Tier in it and took a license this time around. And London is also now those of you who've done scooters or travel on scooters in London will know that it's been a patchy start in general to sort of scooter life in that city. But now this larger parts of the city is covered, you can travel and you can park in larger parts of the city. And there's a larger amount of scooters also that's -- that will be present there. So it's very, very positive for Voi. And especially positive for Voi since they're present, they're so large and present in so many other cities in the U.K., so really becoming sort of something that maybe is well described as a national carrier there. But they're also -- they've also have been successful in other parts of Europe in here up in the north, but also winning Vienna is a big win. You will notice that this sort of rhymes very badly. This very upbeats sort of message, you'll ask yourself that why the heck have they marked Voi down a little bit during this quarter. And we use -- when we value Voi since it's not -- well, starting to become profitable or hasn't been profitable. We're using a sales multiple. And the focus of the company is very much on profitability to sort of extend the runway of the cash they have and to become cash flow positive. And that, as in all companies, sort of lowers the sales growth a little bit in order to sort of to capture profitability quicker. So the companies are seeing ample amount of demand from customers to travel on their scooters, but we revised down maybe being too conservative. We revised down the revenue figures over the course of 2023 in our model to reflect that the company is going for profitability, which means a little bit tighter on the supply. So that's the background on that. I hope that makes sense for you. But we are very enthusiastic and especially happy that they won a mega city like London for the first time, actually, they have -- as you know, they're the biggest in Europe in terms of licenses across this continent. But London is clearly the biggest city that they have scored so far. Otherwise, Gett is doing well. We've written that down a little bit. That's a reflection of that -- there's been some political uncertainty in Israel as a market. And of course, as you know, Israel is a very important market for Gett. But it's not really a reflection of the business doing worse to this political uncertainty has not affected the business, but more from a risk premium sort of cost of capital kind of aspect, we thought that was the right thing to do. But the company is such doing well. And although we sort of refer to it in a more loose here in my sort of write-up on Gett's, but for those of you who Google, ride hailing in Israel, you will note that what I'm referring to is that Uber has decided to withdraw from Israel and although Uber wasn't so big, still Uber. So I think that's a big positive for the company. One company before I -- well, one company I would like to highlight now and that I think will become an increasingly important part of our portfolio, but it's really been in the shadows of all these others, BlaBlaCar, Voi, Gett, et cetera, it's Housing Anywhere. And we -- Housing Anywhere by the way, we'll present at our Cap Markets Day on the 9th of September. So for those of you who can't make it to Paris, we're hosting the day at the BlaBlaCar office in Paris. But for those who can make it there, then we'll, as usual, live stream that so you can participate, but Housing Anywhere will be presenting. So I really sort of I would like to highlight that one as this is one to look out for. And you remember just a few words on Housing Anywhere. This is a true marketplace. So really, marketplace is capture these kind of network effects that we look for and that render -- ultimately had potential to rental sort of very, very high barriers to entry. So this is a true marketplace. It's an Airbnb for medium-term rentals. And that sort of -- that market it's really starting to pick up. And this is very intuitive because you see more and more people -- you can work from anywhere now. And like someone said it was a Bjorn or one of our colleagues here who said that an increasing amount of their sort of friends who sort of get their first kids and et cetera, they take -- they use the opportunity to go and work from an external sort of office and then work from a different country for 6 months or something. And that's exactly what Housing Anywhere offers. This is an Airbnb for medium-term rentals in other countries. So this market is really, really picking up. In addition to that, this is really becoming like a private equity story because it's really doing -- it's an M&A roll-up kind of story. It's acquiring its competitors across Europe. In fact, the most recent acquisition was its largest competitor in Europe, which is a French company. And that company -- and that will also be very relevant for them to present in France because France is becoming a bigger -- quite a large part of their business. But so both growing organically because this market is really picking up, but also growing by the way of M&A. And just to give you a sense, this company is like a $30 million, $35 million revenue for 2023. Not quite profitable yet, but not far away, could be profitable if they slow down a little bit, but they have opted not to. And just the back-on-the-envelope calculation here is that I really feel that this $30 million, $35 million revenue, we'll be able to grow $100 million, 3x, not over next year, but over the coming sort of 3, 4, 5 years, both from -- both organically but also from sort of M&A as they acquire smaller competitors across Europe. So getting to a $100 million revenue base and then also using Airbnb as the relevant multiple. This is a billion-dollar company. And a $1 billion company, we own 30%. That's our entire market cap from a company that's completely in the shadows we never talk about. But so I think this is a good highlight to sort of that there's a lot of stuff going on in the portfolio of that I think, will become much, much, much more important over the coming years. Housing Anywhere, I think, is one. And so on to sort of to -- so 3 markets ahead of our upcoming Capital Markets Day in September. Then there's bits and pieces going on portfolio. We obviously wrote down Babylon, their delisting. It's well, the owners of the debts will be the owners of the company, so a tragic outcome of that. We -- I wanted to do like a full [ Monty ] sort of postmortem of that in my management report, and I have done and the lessons that are very important to learn and that we will bring with us as we continue doing our work. But that's obviously something that I don't want to hide from that it was -- it's a big negative big scar, it's very painful. And now we turn the patient out to move on, but I wanted to take a sort of one last sort of big outing on that company, and we have done that in this report. And then there's small bits and pieces going on. We're continuously monitoring for new investments, but very, very, very selectively because priority number one is, of course, to pay down the debts. But we have done a few -- we have funded a few new companies in our -- that's really come out of our scout network. So NoTraffic is an Israeli company, which we're very excited about, with [indiscernible] they own 5%. They did a big round and we took our pro rata on that. And -- or roughly our pro rata. And so NoTraffic will also be presenting at the Capital Markets Day. So that I'd encourage you to listen in or visit or listen to them when they are when they present. And there was -- we also did another small round in another 1 of our scout companies, which did their next round Seed round actually and in a very exciting space within hair coloring. So it's a platform. It's basically an AI platform for hair coloring, and we can go into more details around that, but we're very excited about that space. It's a very, very, very profitable area in that industry. And this company is essentially disrupting how that whole industry works. So want to look out for. If we turn the page, we've also -- before we go into the details of the portfolio. We've also sort of had a stab of presenting our portfolio in a slightly different way. So this sort of green part, you'll see the companies there, our core portfolio are mature assets, they're profitable or either very close to profitability. But then we have two sort of -- we've sort of sliced and diced our portfolio into geographies. So another 9%, which is this dark green is and smaller companies with network effect potential in developed markets, mainly Europe. But then given our emerging markets background, we also have sort of made a small piece of the pie in putting all our emerging markets portfolio companies into that piece. So you could see those two areas as early-stage work, where we sort of find our new sort of BlaBla's, new Avito's. And part of that work is European-focused, which is one sort of set of experiences and personnel that looks at that, and then we have another bucket of experiences that has us receiving a lot of deal flow from the same kind of companies, network effect potential companies, but more focused in emerging markets. So those 2 pieces of the pie, about the same size. And then we've got some LP investments and then we've got cash. So I think with that, I'll hand over to Bjorn and to dig us a little bit deeper into the details of this report.
Björn von Sivers
executiveThank you, Per. If we move to the next slide, Dennis thank you. Yes. So I'll walk through the VNV in a bit more detail before handing over to Dennis and the general valuation detail, which I described previously. So NAV per share as we June 30 came in at $5.54 per share, which is $725 million; total NAV, down roughly 9% over the quarter. In SEK, we ended the quarter at SEK 59.84 down roughly 5% of the quarter due to some favorable FX. Total investment portfolio stood at $888 million, of which $58 million was cash. But if you also include liquidity management investments, cash and cash equivalents, so that $64 million as of June 30. And again, share price closed at around SEK 20. So big, big discount to NAV. If we move to the next slide, Dennis, I'll walk through some of the main holdings. So -- and the largest holding BlaBlaCar continues to be valued on the basis of an EV sales multiples model was revalued to $276 million, up 18% during the quarter. This revaluation was primarily driven by the secondary transaction where we acquired secondary BlaBlaCar shares at a steep discount to fair value. The BlaBlaCar position represents roughly SEK 22.8 per share as per June 30 so becoming a larger portion of the overall NAV. Gett, as per mentioned, is value on the EBITDA multiples model and markdown during the quarter, 18% or roughly $20 million, primarily driven by decreased ownership following some additional dilution and an increased discount adjustment due to macro-related risks. Voi, which also I mentioned briefly is valued on the EV sales model and was also marked down some 8% during the quarter. Driven by an updated peer group multiples and other input variables. And the Babylon, which per mentioned, represented the second largest negative fair value change of some $18 million during the quarter. The remainder of the portfolio so smaller changes in general, primarily driven by the fluctuating multiples and the market during the quarter. Total investments amounted to some $31 million. Vast majority, of course, was related to EUR 25 million investment into BlaBlaCar, that was funded by the rights issue of SEK 328 million at SEK 20 per share that closed in May. And finally, if we move to the next slide, Dennis, we see the difference in the portfolio since the first quarter and also note that the debt we have on balance sheet decreased by some 4% following favorable FX and the weak Swedish crown. With that, I'll hand over to Dennis, who will walk you through a general detail of our approach to valuation of unlisted investments and also look at the top names in the portfolio in aggregate to get a better portfolio perspective as per June 30. Go ahead, Dennis.
Dennis Mohammad
executiveMany thanks, Bjorn. As Bjorn mentioned, my name is Dennis Mohammad, I'm an investment manager on the team, and I will run you through this general valuation deep dive. And the purpose of this valuation session is to give a bit more detail and transparency into how we value our investment portfolio at VNV. The content in this part of the presentation is not directly related to the Q2 2023 report. However, some of the multiple data that I will show are from this last published report. As you know, the net asset value comprises of the value of the VNV Global Investment portfolio plus cash, less debts. And today, we will deep dive into the valuation of the investment portfolio part of this equation. VNV Global's investments are valued at fair value on the basis of IFRS and the investments are categorized into 3 different levels. Level 1, our listed assets with quoted prices on an active market. Historically, this has been our investments such as Hemnet, SWVL or Babylon we've all been publicly traded and were the last price per share from quarter end serve as basis for our valuation. Level 2, our unlisted assets where the evaluation is based on observable data typically a recent price equity transaction at market terms, such as the $50 million Series B round in NoTraffic that was closed in this quarter that Per mentioned where the transaction price per share serves as the basis for our valuation. We are allowed to keep an asset on Level 2 for up to 12 months after the close of a transaction before it goes still. However, if there are a lot of movements in the market, the valuation might go still earlier, and we then move it to Level 3. And finally, Level 3 is unlisted assets where the valuation is based on other input than observable data, and in this case, it's primarily valuation models based on a revenue or EBITDA multiple of comparable peer groups. As you can see on the right-hand side of this slide, the vast majority of VNV Global's investment portfolio for Q2 '23 are valued on Level 3, and that is valued in the model. This number has changed a lot over the past 18 months as a consequence of the market volatility we have seen and this is, as you can see, also reflected in the way that we value our portfolio. As a large share of the investment portfolio is valued on Level 3. I will now walk you through an industry type of example of how we run our models -- model-based valuations at VNV. On the left-hand side of the slide, we are projecting, you see an example of the several steps we take to value one portfolio company on Level 3. However, note that all these numbers are illustrative. We first started off with a sales or a profitability metric from the portfolio company. Typically, if it's a profitability metric, it is EBITDA, but it could also be further down to the P&L. This is a number that we received from the portfolio company budgets or business plans. However, we typically take a haircut based on our view at VNV, and in this example, I have used $100 as the adjusted sales figure for sake of simplicity. As a next step, we create a peer group of publicly traded companies that are similar to our portfolio company and take their median either enterprise value to sales or enterprise value to EBITDA multiple for that group. In this example, that median multiple is 2x sales. And this is the number that you can find in the notes package of our quarterly report for portfolio companies valued on the model. So this is a figure that we do share publicly each quarter. As a third step, we always apply a discount to the median multiple of the peer group. And this discount is to reflect both the fact that our companies are private and therefore, more illiquid versus public peers. But also to reflect differences in size, growth, profitability, geographic exposure, et cetera, for our portfolio company versus the public peers. The discount that we apply typically varies between 10% and 30%. It is never below 10%, but it could also be higher than 30%. And this example, the discount applied is 20%. And this takes the adjusted median peer group multiple applied in our example from 2 to 1.6 after adjusting for the discount. If you then multiply the sales figure, with the adjusted EV sales multiple, so 100x1.6. That gets us to the implied enterprise value of $160. And as the next step, we look at the portfolio company's net debt figure, that is debt less cash. And in this portfolio company example that where we illustrate they have a net cash position illustrated by the negative $40. And therefore, when getting to the equity value, we subtract the net debt and reach to a $100. So that is $160 plus $40 get us to a $200 equity value. As a final step, we look at VNV's fully diluted ownership in the portfolio company. In the fully diluted ownership, we include any potential dilution impact from management incentive programs or other incentive programs, be it options, warrants or other potentially dilutive securities. And some of these incentive shares worth highlighting might not even be allocated and some might not even be in the money. But to reflect the full potential dilution impact we include any shares that are approved and that could be dilutive in the future. We typically own 10% to 20% of our portfolio companies. So in this example, I've assumed we owned 15% on a fully diluted basis. And so multiplying our ownership, the 15% with the equity value gets us to the value of VNV's stake, and that is the number that you would find in our NAV report for any given portfolio companies valued on Level 3. As you know, we do not disclose which peer groups we use to value our portfolio companies with in our models. However, on the right-hand side of this slide, we are able to show you a peer group that we used to value one of our former portfolio companies, namely Property Finder. Property Finder, which you can probably derive from the peer group is a leading real estate classified player in the UAE and as a reminder, VNV sold its position in Property Finder during Q3 of 2022 for a cash consideration of roughly $39 million which was the valuation that our Level 3 model had reached in the Q2 2022 valuation of Property Finder. And since this is an exited portfolio company, we can show you the peer group that we used. Moving on to the next slide and an attempt to share a little bit more detail of how our portfolio companies perform and our value versus peers. We have aggregated the top 10 individual holdings that are listed on the right and divided them into 1 of 3 categories, depending the competitive dynamics in the industry where they are active and on the margin profile for their business. Category A, our portfolio companies in markets with winner takes all type dynamics and with long-run gross margin profiles in the plus 70% territory. An example here would be BlaBlaCar. Category B, our portfolio companies in markets with winner takes most type dynamics and with long-run gross margin profiles in the 50% to 70% territory. An example here would be Gett. Category C, our portfolio companies in markets with more competitive dynamics, however, where regional winners tend to prevail and with long-run gross margin profiles in the 20% to 50% territory. And an example here would be Wasoko. On this slide, we are on the left-hand side showing how each category of VNV portfolio companies are expected to grow during 2023. And the range of enterprise value to sales multiples applied in the VNV Q2 report for these companies. We also show on the right-hand side of the slide, the average expected growth with a public peer group we use to value each category of portfolio companies and the range of EV sales to multiples that these companies traded on at quarter close Q2 2023, so the 30th of June. As you can see for Category A, as an example, the VNV portfolio companies are growing twice as fast, so 30% versus the 15% bigger for the public peer group, that are valued at 5.4 to 8.1x sales versus the peer group that is trading at 7.7 to 9x sales. That same relationship hold for all these categories, and we think this is a good way to illustrate the point that we do like to err on the conservative side when valuing our portfolio companies, especially on a model. To give you a sense of the size and growth of the top 10 portfolio company revenues, this slide shows VNV Global's pro rata share of the top 10 portfolio company revenues from 2020 until 2023. That is -- and as an example, of the expected roughly EUR 250 million in revenue that BlaBlaCar is expected to deliver this year. We have included 13.7%. So that is our fully diluted ownership of that in the 2023 bar and done the same exercise for all top 10 portfolio companies. As you can see, this is a fast-growing portfolio with roughly 40% CAGR since 2020 and our pro rata share of the top 10 portfolio company revenues is expected to be some $170 million this year. Comparing that to the current market cap of VNV that would imply that we are trading at a 1.4x sales when only including the top 10 portfolio company revenues at current market price for VNV Global. As a final slide, this portfolio is not only growing, but is also, as Per has already alluded to, increasingly reaching profitability. In Q1 2023, some 45% of the investment portfolio was EBITDA positive, a number that now in Q2 has increased to 53% when excluding Voi. When including Voi, that number is 66% but as D&A is relevant in Voi's P&L, the EBIT is the most relevant figure to look at for Voi compared to almost all other VNV portfolio companies where EBITDA is a good proxy for cash flows. We're happy to see that an increase in share of the portfolio is becoming profitable and therefore, less dependent on external capital to continue to grow. I will, with that, stop here and hand it back to Bjorn to kick us off with some Q&A.
Björn von Sivers
executiveThank you, Dennis. Yes, we've received some questions already. [Operator Instructions] But to start off, I see that we have a number of questions relating to the bonds. So Per, I'll try to phrase it here. So one question is, if you can give some color on when you expect to be able to address the bonds. And the follow-up that you expect it to be one type of transaction? Or will you expect to handle the 2 bonds at different times. And then also to -- you need to do -- you need to complete the larger exits to cover the first bond or do you have resources to do so with current cash?
Per Brilioth
executiveSo it's very good questions. Thank you for those. So we -- so the numbers stack up like this. We got like $60 million of cash. So -- and we call it there is like $10 million or so that we're looking to use of that cash to fund other investment opportunity or to fund the stuff in our portfolio that we -- it's a very, what's the expression, we're not going to fund everything. But there's some stuff that we will fund that's about [indiscernible] so at least 50 and then we, of course, running costs, et cetera. But the point I'm trying to make is that the first bond, we could nearly cover with sort of the liquidity that we have within the portfolio. The first bond is due -- is a smaller one, which is SEK 500 million or call it -- well, it's 450 -- $45-or-so million. So that one is covered by that. But in order to sort of pay down the larger bond, which is SEK 1.2 billion, which is then -- well, the remainder, say, call it, $110 million, $150 million site, rough and ready I just converting Swedish crowns into dollars. To pay that down, we don't have enough cash for currently, so we need to complete some exits in the portfolio. And as I sort of alluded to earlier, we're -- that's a very high priority. And we -- I think we're -- I -- if I would sort of stick my neck out and say do I think we'll be able to do that? Not yes. I think we'll be able to sort of sell stuff in the portfolio in order to sort of pay down that sort of larger bond that matures in early 2025. Now both of those bonds, they run at 5% in Swedish crowns fixed rate. So given where the rates are currently, it's -- the carrying cost it's very low. So if we sell stuff this autumn, we -- it's -- we may just be plus/minus 0 without taking a lot of risk, you probably get like 5% on if you place liquidity into sort of return, low-risk return investments. But of course, we'll -- as we approach maturity of those bonds, the call penalty to pay back early sort of penalty for that gets to reduced a lot. So we might deal with them ahead of time. But in order to also first bond, got liquidity, rough and ready in the portfolio, second bond, we need to sell some stuff, but I think we'll be able to do that. So that sort of the general -- my view on how -- I think it's a fair description of how we see our work being cut out versus that indebtedness and -- well, these 2 bonds over the coming -- yes, over the coming year and 1.5 years. Bjorn did I cover the questions you brought up there?
Björn von Sivers
executiveI believe so. Another question here relates to what we expect to invest in existing portfolio, I think, relates to the previous mentioned $50 million expectation that's required for our part of the existing portfolio. So maybe if you can provide some color if that number still holds true or where we are in relation to that.
Per Brilioth
executiveYes. Yes, it's like $10 million to $50 million, I think, is the number that we've used before. I wonder if it will be as much as [ $50 million ]. So [ $10 million to $50 million ] I think, is a fair description of that. And as these companies turn profitable means that the cash flow or the funding need gets reduced. And of course, as they turn profitable ability to fund themselves at sort of fair value, it gets much, much better, which means that we can also opt out and get diluted at a fair value. And there's some stuff in the portfolio that -- which is really, really, really small. It's like a percent or if that's where we may not be able to sort of support or want to sort of fund the companies and they will get diluted. But in all these big ones, they're either profitable and have the cash to get to cash flow positive or are or getting to a space where they will be able to fund themselves from third-party people at sort of acceptable sort of dilution metrics. But -- so $10 million to $50 million, I think, is still relevant, maybe.
Björn von Sivers
executiveThank you. And another, I guess, question related to that, there's a question here on in like longer-term strategy, as you want to maintain the portfolio with its large amount of companies, roughly 70 to 80, if I'm not mistaken? Or are you looking to have fewer but more concentrated investments going forward? Do you adjusted 2 smaller investments that you highlighted in this report, which points to, I guess, maintaining a larger portfolio. So maybe some color on our thinking there.
Per Brilioth
executiveYes. No, our sort of culture or strategy is to have -- to run a concentrated portfolio. I very much adhere to -- or at least historically, we -- those who have followed us for some time know that we've been -- we have not sort of had diversification as a core point in our strategy. So we've just -- if it has made sense to sort of continue funding a company, even if that has rendered the portfolio being very sort of very concentrated then we'll let that company sort of run and it's become a very large part of the portfolio, we'll let that happen. So we've been -- it's been very optimistically driven like that. I do see the benefits of having a few large names. We -- back in 2018, we would have 60% in one name. So -- and that was because that company did super well, and it was a super good exit and all fine. But then it becomes -- our company becomes very associated with one name only. And I think it's probably better in the way we have it now that there's maybe 5, 6 names that make up a large chunk of the portfolio. So diversified in that sense. But it's not our 70 names or so it's probably as high as it will get in terms of number of names, and that will go down from now on. As you see, our investment activities slow down a lot, and we fund the old ones already existing in the portfolio, but the number of names will be reduced. So more sort of more concentration across a few big names is what I think you should expect out of this portfolio going forward.
Björn von Sivers
executiveGood and a short question on buybacks. And yes, so why don't we buy back shares given the big discount to NAV. I can do a short answer on this one. Unfortunately, we are restricted because of the box at the moment. Hence, it's -- we're unable to buy back shares even if we wanted to. That's the short answer on that. And then there's another question is there any way to provide more guidance or color around the growth, profitability outlook for BlaBlaCar and the larger constituents of the portfolio and be more granular in the KPIs that we can provide going forward?
Per Brilioth
executiveThat's the question?
Björn von Sivers
executiveYes.
Per Brilioth
executiveThat's the ask, right. Okay. So. Yes. No, I mean, we will certainly endeavor to get you as much transparency as we can from our portfolio companies, but it's not quite that easy. So we're a large shareholder in all these companies, but we can sort of dictate what the companies will share with sort of a more public world. And so that's -- we're restricted on what we can share. But BlaBlaCar, for example, is what -- looking backwards, it's obviously doubled revenue and profitability during the course of 2022 of gross margin. And that growth sort of now slows down, but it remains very high on the revenue side of things, but it's starting to -- but profitability will grow much faster than revenue essentially. I think it's doesn't give -- it's very anorectic sort of answer in terms of someone who quests for more detail around that and wants to run their own model. What I will say, though, and you'll -- if you Google it, you'll see that BlaBlaCar is much more active recently in the press, and there's some fairly current fresh interviews with BlaBlaCar management and where they give a little bit more detail. And one of those details they refer to an IPO and that they are ready for that in 2024, should conditions be right or if that extends to 2025 is the way that I think they describe it, and you can -- you'll find these if you Google them. But that -- a company like that, which has become mature, profitable and which is sort of getting ready for an IPO that often goes hand-in-hand and them being sort of more -- at least to share more information about their current trading and outlook, et cetera. So I think in the case of BlaBlaCar, we may -- you may sort of expect them to sort of start to allow us to share more information and/or the market in general, they will provide the market with more information. So that will be interesting to follow. So -- but Voi, it's not really there yet. I mean, I know there's a lot of talk about them going public here in Stockholm a year or so ago, but they opted to fund themselves in private market instead, but that market needs to consolidate a little bit and then when that consolidation is over, I think there will be more companies going public. There's been talk about Lime going public, the U.S. competitor, which will be interesting to see. But the kind of level of financial detail from Voi, that you can expect, at least in the short term, is sort of the level that you get from us right now. And yes, I hope that sort of gave some color to the question.
Björn von Sivers
executiveGood. Maybe a final question on BlaBlaCar here that just came in. So why is BlaBlaCar not really taking up in some markets, for example, the U.K. Great Britain...
Per Brilioth
executiveYes, it's not. I mean it did its big sort of geographical expansion around 2015, where it went from being in a very few markets to 22 markets, and then it sort of stopped the geographical expansion and to focus on becoming deeper and providing deeper liquidity within each of those 22 countries. So it never got to Sweden. Sweden being a small market. I don't think it's present in any of the small Scandinavian markets. Will it come here eventually, I'm sure. But for now, the focus is to become to build liquidity in each of the current markets and then also -- and to -- and the first step -- well, the first step is to build liquidity and then after building liquidity, you can start to monetize and then you go from there, then you get to profitability as well. Great Britain. Some -- so the classical -- well, things that have to be present in the market for BlaBlaCar to be successful is that petrol is expensive as a percentage of disposable income. So it sort of main share -- make sense to get other people in the car to share the cost of a long distance ride. And the other one would be the alternatives like train, et cetera, would be poor or not present at all. So I don't think it's -- well, for those of you living in Great Britain, it's well -- I don't petrol seems to be expensive. Certainly, if you come there for the slot living in Sweden with our poor Swedish currency. But -- and I would say that trains, et cetera, are present in the U.K. So none of those really explain why it's not kicked off in earnest in the U.K. And so beyond those 2 sort of big ones, I guess it's cultural, do you want to have people in your car? That's more like, people in some countries are more likely to be open to that than in other countries, et cetera. So -- what I can say is that some markets and probably U.K. included, where it's not hit, it's not growth, it's not grown so dramatically as in other markets like France, Spain, Brazil now, Mexico is growing very, very fast. But some markets where it just takes a little longer. So if it's not sort of taken off, that probably has meant that the company hasn't done it's withdrawn a little bit, and it's not given so much focus. It's not spent any marketing, et cetera. But those markets have, over time, still become liquid and by itself, sort of generated liquidity. Mexico is a good example like that, which was a little slow. It was more -- it was better to do Brazil. And then -- but now Mexico over the years has grown to be quite a liquid market then with liquidity, then things start to happen at a much faster rate. So -- but there's no other sort of clear reason why, for example, the U.K. is not as active in this space as France, for example. So it's probably down to culture, something like that.
Björn von Sivers
executiveGood. All right. Thank you for that. I think we touched upon most of the questions. If we missed anything or if you have additional questions, please reach out or email or give us a call. And if anything, I leave it to Per, for some closing remarks, if any.
Per Brilioth
executiveYes. No, thanks for listening in. I mean we got our work cut out for us here. We'll -- there is some stuff in the portfolio that's right for exits over this coming sort of periods, quarter or quarters. And we're quite enthusiastic about that. There's really -- there's nothing that's wholly in the portfolio. I mean, we're -- there's some stuff that's doing super well that we think has a very, very long-term big potential BlaBlaCar included that BlaBlaCar, of course, do if they do an IPO, then that will be -- that will provide us with more liquidity. But really, outside of that, we think there's stuff in the portfolio that will help us -- that we will be able to exit and that will help us retire this debt, which I think will be a big driver for us to sort of be able to move out of this historically very, very high discount that we are associated with right now. But yes, anyway, I'll stop elaborating on about that. We talked a lot about that already. So thank you all for listening in, and see you in the quarter.
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