Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB (publ) (WIHL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the presentation of Wihlborgs's full year report 2024. Another year has come to its end and a pretty active start of '25. So at the same time, as we summarize '24, we have our full focus on '25 and knowing there is more to harvest in '26. It is special times, a lot of changes and challenges around us, and we must adapt and find new ways. If we put human tragedies aside, change and challenges, it's nothing new. Time always seems to be special. And that means that what's new is how well and how quickly we adapt and how fast we can find the new opportunities in every day of change. And if anything I can summarize the times of today, we claim that it's a time of action. We have been quite successful to adapt and achieve results in challenging times so far. And that ability is the only thing we refuse to change. Let's go to our report and we'll start with a summary of Q4. We have a new record in rental income for 1 quarter, SEK 1.59 billion. Net debt letting positive with SEK 30 million. Income from property management up 23% to SEK 452 million. Net debt to EBITDA below 10x. Demand remains for good quality and good location. Product investment continue to give good potential for growth. And as announced yesterday, transaction will also contribute to growth. We will come back to that at the end of the presentation. And the last point in the summary, the Board proposes a dividend of SEK 3.20 per share. Results for the full year '24 rental income increased by 8% to SEK 4.174 billion; and operating surplus also reached by 8% to SEK 2.996 billion, annoyingly close to SEK 3 billion. Income from property management amounted to SEK 1.781 billion, and result for the period amounts to SEK 1.706 billion corresponding to SEK 5.55 per share and EPRA NRV have increased by 8% to SEK 93.58 per share adjusted for paid dividend. We had a comparison of the rental income full year '23 and full year '24. Indexation gives plus SEK 180 million termination fees from the Danish portfolio, SEK 31 million acquisition plus SEK 12 million property tax has increased in Denmark, and that gives extra income of SEK 15 million. We have a currency effect, minus SEK 5 million, supplementary billing plus SEK 7 million, and decreased income from canteens in Denmark minus SEK 8 million and completed projects, new leases and renegotiations plus SEK 61 million. I remember in February '21, when we summarized 2020 and for the first time, rental income above SEK 3 million. I got the question in an interview if I now was satisfied reaching about SEK 3 billion, like if we had in some way reached the finishing line. My answer is that I like SEK 4 billion better, and that development has no finishing line, we will continue. We have signed new leases for the last quarter of SEK 86 million and for the full year, SEK 371 million. Then positive net letting for the quarter is SEK 13 million and SEK 91 million for the period. I'm very grateful to the whole organization who works hard and brilliant both easy and more struggling days. Here are some of the tenants that we have signed during Q4, 2 of them owing to the Dockan area, as I talked about already in October, but also Visma at Hermes in Helsingborg, Smurfit Kappa Varjan 13 in Helsingborg and BPC with a new project of Tomaten in Lund. All of them are good representatives of growing businesses in our region. Here, we have the net letting in a historical perspective, lettings in green, termination in light blue and dark blue stacks are the net letting, now 39 positives quarters in a row and the high volume with new demand seems to continue. We still see no end to the question of what creates the best environment and conditions for the employees. When it comes to net letting, I continue to repeat myself on this slide. We have no promises ahead, but we do everything can every single day to continue to be on the positive side. A quarter is in this perspective, a short period. We see potential ahead, but we also know that we will get termination in Q1. 39 quarters in a row is good but 40 is better. So of course, we go for that. Here are the list, our 10 largest tenants in alphabetical order, strong customers, and they contribute with 20% of our rental income. 8 out of 10 are governmental tenants and the rental income from public tenancies in total, 23%, and they contribute in long-term -- to long-term stability in our cash flow. The rental value as of first of January, SEK 4.646 billion per year, plus 5.4% and rental income, SEK 4.157 billion, plus 2.8%. Looking at like-for-like figures, all the properties we own a year ago, excluding projects compared with updated figures, we can see that the rental value is up 2.7% and rental income is down 0.2%. The growth in rental value is supported by indexation of 1.6% in Sweden and approximately 1% in Denmark. Lower rental income is an effect of higher vacancy. There is normally a gap between moving out and moving in, so although the net letting has been high and positive, we can occasionally have lower income in a part of the portfolio from 1 period to another, and that is what we see at the moment. Let's look at the changes in the market value of our properties. We started the year with SEK 55.872 billion in accordance with our external valuation where we let them evaluate 100% of the portfolio every year end, same routine this year, of course. Acquisition adds on SEK 201 million, investments, SEK 2.204 billion, divestment minus SEK 117 million; changes in valuation plus SEK 585 million and together with currency translations of SEK 423 million, that's summarized to a value of SEK 59,168 billion. The value of the portfolio has developed, as you can see on this slide, since 2005 without raising any new equity with investments, new leases and a few transactions. We have also, during the last a bit more struggling years been able to increase the value bit by bit, and these figures, the running yields, so how we actually perform in relation to the valuation. So this is not the valuation yield. For the whole portfolio, the occupancy rate is 91%, excluding project and land and with an operating surplus of SEK 3.140 billion, that gives a running yield of 5.6%. Fully let, the portfolio would give a running yield of 6.4%. Good earnings capacity in relation to the value of the portfolio. In the office market, the portfolio have a market value of SEK 47.6 billion, and overall, the occupancy rate is 91%, 92% in Malmo, 87% in Helsingborg, 91% in Lund and 92% in Copenhagen. A bit higher vacancy affected by the gap between tenants moving in and out, as I mentioned. For example, IKEA have continued to downsize in external rental areas, and we have effects from that, both in Helsingborg and in Malmo. These figures will improve later this year, but the full effect from many new leases will come also in 2026. Occupancy for offices in Helsingborg is estimated to increase 2% in October, for example, from new leases we have signed so far. The operating surplus from offices summarized to SEK 2.606 billion and a running yield of 5.5%, 6.2% fully let. The demand for logistics and production continues to be good, especially in Malmo with an occupancy of 95%, lower in Helsingborg, 82%, 99% in Lund and 96% in Copenhagen. 88% occupancy rate as a whole with a running yield of 6.5%, 7.6% fully let and a total value of SEK 8.212 billion. We continue to see harder competition in the third-party logistics segment with quick changes in needs, best success for us is with tenants who have a combination of needs, for example, production and logistics and even better if they also have reaches, search and development, they have high demands and are willing to pay for quality. The development of our total portfolios running yield, 5.6% brings stability, not least since the portfolio overall has high-quality and good locations. As noticed before, a high increase of the running yield since 2021. And here are some ESG results from Q4 certification reached our goal of 90% of the Swedish offices in the end of '24. The evaluation of supplies will continue and maybe forever because changes happen all the time. So this work will never stop. Our carbon emissions from Scope 1 and 2 will continue to decrease the impact are lower, but we are also dependent on our energy suppliers, especially in Denmark. Energy consumption has impacted further, and that work will also continue. And some other sustainability highlights from Q4. As mentioned, we managed to reach our certification goal for '25 1 year ahead. So now we continue with the rest of the portfolio. It's good to notice that Denmark now follows the same track and I'm looking forward to seeing the Danish portfolio catching up. And one sign of that is that we won The Green Lighthouse award from y Realkredit Danmark and Byggesocietetet. That was in Denmark, and in Sweden, we won Sweden Green Building Council's prize for best certification both in class Miljöbyggnad and Miljöbyggnad iDrift. Other part of sustainability is working environment and security at our building sites. Of course, there are a lot of regulations that we follow carefully but during '24, we have extended the workplace controls in order to improve that security furthermore. The work is a combination of control and support, and we do this together with our suppliers. Here is a catalog of value and properties in our 4 cities, 40% of the value in Malmo, 22% in Helsingborg, 16% in Lund and 22% in Copenhagen. And something about the region. I have already repeatedly talked about the massive ongoing infrastructure investment in Denmark, the construction of the Fehmarn Belt tunnel, the increased attractiveness of Copenhagen Airport and the region's competitive growth in number of workplaces. So this time, let's mention something about the report from the fall when it suddenly become obvious that the demographic situation in Sweden is expected to be a bit different ahead. Future growth seems to slow down. And in that perspective, it's interesting to look at Skane and where the growth is expected. Everything continues to point at the largest cities having the most growth and also the greatest attraction for people from other parts of Sweden moving to this region. Maybe not a surprise, but still good to have some numbers to support the opinion. And time for financials. Over to you, Arvid.

Thank you very much, Ulrika. Good morning, everyone. Looking at the Q4 P&L isolated. You could see the rental income amounting to SEK 1.59 billion, up 9% versus the same quarter the previous year. We have an operating surplus of SEK 752 million, up 14%, and the income from property management amounted to SEK 452 million, up a full 23% and as we see the effect of lower market interest rates feeding through our P&L in this quarter. We had positive value changes in the quarter, SEK 514 million. As usual, we had external appraisers valuing 100% of the portfolio as of year-end in the same way as we have done historically. The contribution to the value -- the positive value changes comes to a large part from projects and to some extent from the positive net letting. The underlying assumptions regarding yield requirements, inflation, market rents, et cetera, have been largely unchanged with only small variations. All in all, we had a profit for the period of SEK 860 million. On the next slide, you can see the consolidated balance sheet as of year-end. Investment properties amounting to SEK 59 million being SEK 168 million, which is up approximately SEK 3.2 billion versus 12 months previously. Equity in the same period has increased by SEK 800 million approximately, and our borrowings have increased by approximately SEK 2.1 billion during 2024. Translating this into key figures. Our equity assets ratio stands at 38.1%. And our LTV at 50.9%. Interest cover ratio for 2024 was 2.5x. The EPRA NRV, the long-term net asset value measurement stands at SEK 93.58 per share which is up 8.5% versus 12 months previously adjusted for the paid dividend during 2024. Looking at the next slide, you can see the historic developments of EPRA NRV. The growth has been somewhat slower over the past few years, as you are well aware. But I think it's worthwhile pointing out that since 2009, we actually still have had an average annual growth of 15% in EPRA NRV adjusted for paid dividends. On the next slide, you can see the development of some financial metrics in the long-term perspective. On the left-hand side, you can see how the interest cover ratio is stabilizing around 2.5x over the past few quarters. In the long-term perspective, that is a reasonable level to be at and well in line with our goal of having a minimum of 2.0x. The equity assets ratio at 38.1% is also in a historical perspective on a strong level, as is the LTV at 50.9%. Looking at financial stability on the next slide, we like to follow the net debt-to-EBITDA quota, and that is now a multiple of 9.9x. It's actually the strongest level that we've been at since 2012. And we think this is a relevant metric since it measures the actual debt and our earnings in cash. Looking at our financing sources as of end 2024, 48% comes from bilateral bank agreements with Nordic banks 39% from the Danish rear mortgage system and 13% from the bond market. And as most of you are surely well aware, the bond market works better than it has. Has been a strong improvement in the conditions in the bond market over 2024. And I could also mention that in January, we did 2 additional smaller bond issues. We issued a 3-year bond at 104 basis points margin and a 3.5-year bond at 112 basis points margin illustrating that the market works a lot better than it has been over the past few years. Moving to the next slide. You can see the details of our loan portfolio. The average interest rate now stands at 3.4%. The decrease during Q4 is basically attributable to lower STIBOR and CIBOR rates. And you should, of course, remember looking into the future that during 2025 and 2026, we have a few very attractive interest rate swaps which gradually will expire during these 2 years. So that will, of course, affect the future development of the average interest rate in our loan portfolio. On the next slide, you can see picture showing the interest rate sensitivity. We have a good headroom both to our own objectives of having an interest cover ratio of at least 2x and even better headroom versus our bank covenants of an interest cover ratio of 1.5x. So basically, from the situation at end December, the underlying market rate could move 3.5 percentage points, and we would still be at our target level of 2.0x interest cover ratio. On the next slide, you can see the historic development of our fixed interest period and the loan maturity. Loan maturity now stands at 5.5 years and the fixed interest period at 2.6 years. So fairly stable development over the past few years as the graph shows and we basically continue to follow our interest rate risk management policy. Lastly, looking at available funds as of December, we had unutilized credit facilities plus liquid funds amounting to SEK 3.7 billion. And as I mentioned a minute ago, in January, we issued bonds amounting to SEK 600 million in addition to that. So that gives, of course, a good access to liquidity at the moment. And with that, I'll hand the word back to you, Ulrika.

Thank you. And a short update on our investments in progress and a quick overview of our largest project. During '24, we have invested SEK 2.2 million, and it remains SEK 3.028 billion to invest in approved projects. It's a record year for our investments. And we have, as mentioned before, quite quickly been able to improve the yield on cost and we are now at better levels than we saw during the quick change for higher yield requirements. And for '24, the gain from project was approximately SEK 250 million. We have a good volume ongoing with good quality. This is one of my top favorites. Vatet 1 in Lund, we refurbish and add-on areas for our new tenants arm. 5,700 square meters and 7 years lease, investment have increased a bit to SEK 145 million, excluding the value of the land, so has also the yield on cost, a bit over 10% yield on cost for the investment and over 6.6% yield on costs, including ingoing property value. The investment gives arm a new modern facility, and we will also improve the impression and the attractiveness of the whole Ideon area. Posthornet 1, Phase 2 also in Lund a new build office of 10,100 square meters, right beside the central station. Investment, SEK 448 million, including value of the land. SEK 374 million, excluding land. Completion will start Q1 '26 and yield on cost 6.5%. [indiscernible] will be 1 of the first tenants in place together with [indiscernible]. In the southern part of Lund, we have been able to continue the development of Tomaten, this is a project for BPC, completion in Q2, '26; and investments, SEK 79 million. Yield on cost 7%. Last larger project in Lund presented today is Stora Råby, 11,900 square meters of Note, completion in Q3, '26 investment, SEK 263 million and yield on cost is also here at 7%. In Malmo and Hyllie, we have Blackhornet 1, Vista, SEK 884 million. The mobility has already been completed and has a good occupancy. The office will be completed in '25 and during '26 yield on cost, 6.2%. And Börshuset 1 in Malmo is an iconic building right beside the train station, 6,000 square meters offices, restaurant and co-working and has also been proven, be it the -- give us the absolute top rents in Malmo. Completion in Q4 '25 and moving in will continue during '26. In the Dockan area, we continue the refurbishment for University of Malmo and the police education. We invest SEK 106 million, 10 years lease and yield on cost, 11% completion in Q3 '25. At Galoppen 1 in Malmo, we build a facility for Caldic, completion in Q3 '25, approximately 10,000 square meter production, logistic and office. Total investment in SEK 264 million and yield on cost, 7%. And in Sunnanå, we build the 14,000 square meter logistic. 100% pre-let, 15 years lease completion in Q1 '25. SEK 280 million yield on cost and improved, so close to 7%. In Hörsholm, Copenhagen, we invest for a new school for NGG, 25 years lease, 11,600 square meters and investment SEK 390 million, completion expected at end '25. And that was some of the ongoing projects. Let's also mention something about future investments. Amphitrite in Malmo, where we have signed an agreement with the University of Malmo after a Public Procurement Act. I think the sun is shining. So I will just use some technique here to improve the picture a bit, sorry for that. Yes, we have signed an agreement with Universal of Malmo and the architectural competition is completed and the process with the zoning plan continue. The volume has increased further. So now we think we can reach approximately 20,000 square meters. Completion late 2025, will still be possible?

Late '27.

Yes. Sorry. Late '27. And here is 4 possible projects in Lund and Helsingborg. We can develop some 70,000 square meters in the future. Zoning plans are approved for the first 3 projects and for Vesterbro, it's ongoing and some office possibilities in Malmo in the area of Nyhamnen continues to have very high attention, of course. Another way of growing is, of course, acquisition. And even if it's not a part of 2024, let's mention something about the announcement from yesterday. We have agreed to acquire 8 properties from Granitor closing 1st of April, Sjömannen 1 and 2 and Kajutan is in Malmo, Jöns Petter Borg in Lund and Perrongen 1 in Helsingborg. In total, 51,000 square meters lettable area, 82,000 square meter land for development industry and 12,000 square meter building rights for offices in Lund. Total property value of SEK 2.425 billion and estimated yearly operating surplus SEK 130 million. Modern premises that contribute to strengthen our clusters together with land that we can develop. And I would say that's a perfect match for us. And here is a map of the development properties, Brysselkålen 1 and the Jöns Petter Borg 15 in Lund. [indiscernible] is just beside Tomaten and [indiscernible], where we develop or impact BPC and Note. So good location for us. And the summary of Q4 again. A new record in rental income for 1 quarter, positive net letting, income from property management up 22%, net debt to EBITDA below 10x and we see demand remains for good quality in good locations, and we contribute with project investments and the Board proposes a dividend of SEK 3.20 per share. And by that, we are open for questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from John Vuong from Van Lanschot Kempen.

In the report, you mentioned that the macroeconomic backdrop remains weak, did you expect this to improve over the coming quarters. Are you seeing any change in your leasing discussions that you have with tenants?

I would say that at the moment is approximately the same as we have seen during the last year, they are very keen to find the right solution. They are willing to pay for quality. And the main question is actually how to find their best way or how to work ahead. So that continues to be an important factor, how we can help them with that solution because it's not only about physical area, it's also about the way of work. We see still a mix of both expansion and downsizing. But more positive trends, but still, it takes time to make the decision.

And then on the Granitor portfolio that you're acquiring, the asset screen, perhaps a bit drier than the acquisitions that you have made over the past years. Do you see any asset management potential on such yielding succeeding assets? Or is this really mostly coming from the 2 development properties that you have in Lund?

I think it's a good running portfolio, but possible improvements on maybe some energy savings and some -- we also see possible tenants improvements a bit, but it's a very good running volume.

And then just on the funding of this deal. How should we think about this as well as the capital structure as a whole in relation to where we are in the cycle? I appreciate that you don't really have a net debt EBITDA target, but what would you consider to be a fair number here?

Regarding funding on this transaction, we can fund that by the existing credit facilities. So basically, short term, we can -- or we can fund it with loans entirely. That would have an effect -- an immediate effect on LTV of approximately 2 percentage points. We are not at all worried about such -- so that type of increase in the LTV since the cash flow generation both from this portfolio and from our overall portfolio would gradually bring the LTV downwards over the coming quarters as well. So when it comes to net debt to EBITDA, we're, of course, happy to be below 10x. But if we would move up a few decimals that does not worry us either. I think long term, we've said that if we would move up towards 12 or something, that would make us think and maybe take action but being around 10, 10.5 or something is quite fine.

And looking at the LTV ahead. So even if the acquisition gives a bit of a higher LTV at the moment we think that during normal circumstances, we will be back around or a bit below 50% in the end of '26 and still be able to both pay dividend and continue with our project investments. So the strong cash flow really makes an effect here.

The next question comes from Lars Norrby from SEB.

A follow-up on that regarding the acquisition level of the LTV. I think Arvid you mentioned it's -- the transaction itself is going to lift the LTV by around 2%. There’s obviously a lot of room up to your own self-imposed limit of 60. But it sounds like you're not prepared to go much further than this. So my question is, if you are considering making a material additional acquisition at this point in time, in early '25 or during the year would you have to -- would you, in that situation, consider doing a directed share issue?

That's of course, a very hypothetical question. But I mean we have the mandate from the AGM, to issue shares up to 10% of the total number of outstanding shares. It is a tool which we can use if the opportunity is the right one. And if the size would motivate that route of action. But as you stated correctly, this type of transaction and the effect on the LTV is not large enough for us to feel that it's good for the existing shareholders to use that tool at present. But we are aware that the tool exists and under the right circumstances, we may use it.

And then second question, different area. Thinking about net letting first quarter. So far, I note that both the Smurfit lease and the B2C lease that you announced through press releases in January were put in the fourth quarter. So I think you have 1 additional lease announced the one with HSB Skåne, some 1,500 square meters. Let me put it this way, so far in Q1, have you had any material terminations that you have to take into account?

No, but we know that we will get terminations in Q1. So -- but we also have potential new leases. So I'm hopeful also for Q1.

Okay. So there is some possibility of extending that impressive track record of some 39 quarters in a row...

As mentioned, I think 40 is better than 39.

The next question comes from Erik Granstrom from Carnegie.

I had a few questions, starting off with the rental market and maybe continuing on your view of terminations in Q1. Could you give us some examples of what terminations you're actually specifically talking about? And how large are these just so that we get a sense of how much you need to find in new leases in order to sort of balance that?

I mean, the largest one is the one we have mentioned before. We're expecting a termination from SAAB. We know that they are moving to Lund. And that will be above SEK 30 million.

So that's the sort of the major termination that you then need to counter somehow in terms of new leases?

Yes.

And then moving on, in terms of the vacancy rate, it came out 2 percentage points, I believe, quarter-on-quarter but you seem quite confident in the vacancy rate coming down towards the second half of the year or towards the end of '25. Why is it? What is it that's driving your confidence in this? Is it purely new leases moving in? Or is it something else?

It's a combination, I would say. But if I only take into calculation the leases we have signed and the termination that we have been given and what we know about happens during this year. I see that in -- I mean, as I mentioned, for offices in Helsingborg, the numbers will improve 2 percentage points at least in the -- in October. So it take some time before all the signed leases move in. But -- and I think, yes, we -- in the best of times, we can be a bit higher on occupancy but during the circumstances. I'm confident that we have good products, and we have enough of discussions ongoing, so that we get the flow -- better flow in that. But I mean, we bought Hermes, for example, a few years ago in Helsingborg. We know that, that will bring occupants -- vacancy through the market and the number and the size of the leases we have been able to sign there when IKEA moves out are very good. So I'm very positive on that. But still, that means that some part of the vacancy could stay a bit, but still as strong as tenants are willing to pay for quality and the rents are continuously moving up bit by bit. It's a good market.

And then on investments, you invested in the portfolio, I believe, just a little bit more than SEK 2 billion in '24. How much do you plan to invest in '25?

Without giving any prognosis on that, we usually say that you could expect between SEK 1.5 billion to SEK 2 billion.

So it means that you are expecting the investment pace to come down a little bit versus last year?

Maybe a bit down. It depends on the largest projects, how much they use at the moment. So -- but approximately the same level. I think it will be closer to 2% than 1.5%, but a bit tricky to say.

And then on the acquisition yesterday, when do you think you can start projects on the land that you had acquired in Lund? Is this sort of a long-term process? Or is it something that you can start short term as well?

I actually think that the industrial part could go quite quick. But still, of course, it will take time. It's a large piece of land. But there is good potential there.

But you don't expect it to start it this year?

No, that's a bit too close. That's a bit too fast, I think.

And then my final question is a bit of a sort of a detailed question. I believe the actual tax rate for the second half was about 4%, whereas it's 3% for the total in terms of '24. What should we expect going forward in terms of actual tax rate? Is it closer to what we've seen now in the second half or something else?

I would look at the full year '24. Because looking at taxes on a quarterly basis. I mean you sometimes have some effects so it's not quite even quarter by quarter. So look at the full year '24.

The next question comes from Stefan Andersson from Danske Bank A/S Denmark [indiscernible].

Just one question for me. Looking at the NOI margin, it's up quite a lot year-on-year. And we've seen that throughout the year, I guess, as well. But I'm a little bit curious just understand if there is weather effects in there, if there is any one-offs at all, historical -- the reason I'm asking is also historical passion has been that Q1 seasonally have been at the same level or even above. So I'm just trying to understand if we could be that optimistic also for Q1 '25. I know you don't give guidance, but you understand my question, is there any one-offs that could we expect the same pattern as normal?

No particular one-offs. As you say, I mean, look at Q4, the operating surplus ratio was unusually strong. Some weather effects but I mean, generally, the difference versus Q4 2023, you mainly find in the actually operating costs. So I mean the other items that, I mean, repair and maintenance, property tax, property administration was in relation to revenues fairly much the same as the previous year, but we had a lower operating costs for the properties versus Q4 '23.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Alexander Totomanov from Green Street.

One question for me. Regarding the press release on the Granitor acquisition that came out yesterday afternoon. You mentioned the underlying property value across the 8 properties was SEK 2.4 billion. Would you be able to give us a split out of that figure between the 6 investment properties and the 2 development properties?

No, we have agreed not to do that. So the figures that we can give you is in the press release. But I think we are very happy with the transaction. The running portfolio and the development properties will give us a very good match for the -- and competition for the portfolio that we already have.

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

So thank you for today. And of course, we are open for further questions ahead so just contact us. Arvid, anything else you want to add on?

Thank you very much, everybody, for listening in.

Thank you.