Worldline SA (WLN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

October 27, 2026

ENXTPA FR Financials Financial Services trading_statement 57 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Worldline Q3 2026 Revenue Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Pierre-Antoine Vacheron, CEO of the group. Please go ahead.

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#2

Thanks a lot. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm very happy to be here tonight with Srikanth Seshadri for this Q3 2026 revenue that comes close to 1 year after our CMD, November 6 last year. So let's move directly to Slide 4. Now that the balance sheet is repaired and the pruning program fully executed, we have been focused during this quarter purely on operational execution, executing on what we have committed with discipline. There are 4 highlights I would like to -- you to take from our performance this quarter. First, our disciplined execution is translating now into better customer satisfaction, I will come back to that, and improved operating results. Second, our North Star 2030 is on track, and we are delivering against the commitment we made 1 year ago across simplification, convergence, integration, and growth. Third, commercial momentum is building across the group, although depending on the markets, it will take more or less time for bookings to translate into revenue. And fourth, we are confirming our full year guidance on the 3 items: The external revenue, the adjusted EBITDA, and the free cash flow. These are important milestones. Step by step, we are restoring the potential of this company and getting increasing confidence in our 2030 trajectory. On a fully pruned basis, third quarter revenue reached EUR 946 million, representing organic growth of 2.5%. Merchant Services delivered solid growth at 4.3% and NNR is flat for the first time since Q2 2024. We are delivering an improving momentum across the 3 businesses. Customer satisfaction is improving on all businesses and churn continues to decline at SMB. In Enterprise, Mobility and Self-service continues to perform strongly, supported by our vertical expertise and geographic expansion. And in Global Commerce, which is back to growth in Q4 -- in Q3, sorry, Global Collect is demonstrating strong growth, double digit, following its repositioning and a successful platform modernization. Financial Services is recovering more gradually as expected at minus 3.3% this quarter, supported by non-recurring items. We obviously continue to absorb the impact of legacy contract terminations. The good news there is that underlying processing activity remains resilient and commercial momentum is strengthening with a significant increase in bookings year-to-date, boosted by the signing of the major contract with ABN AMRO ICS announced in July. One year ago, North Star was a plan. Today, it is an operating transformation under execution. Let me illustrate the progress we have achieved during the quarter. On Simplify, we continue to reduce complexity across the organization and our processes. In the quarter, we closed 3 entities and returned 1 additional license. This is creating a simpler organization with clearer accountability and faster execution. On Converge, platform migrations are progressing according to plan. We have decommissioned 3 acceptance platform in Germany. If you remember, we started from 26 in '25, were at 23 in November, remains today 20 with a target of 12 at the end of the plan. As part of this, we are coming to the end of the Ogone SMB portfolio to GoPay and moved approximately 1/3 of our Italian merchants to the target acquiring platform without disruption. On Integrate, we are bringing our capabilities and operations together more effectively across the group. We made significant progress in our infrastructure integrated strategy, transitioning step-by-step from our 44 fragmented landscape to deliberate domains, sovereign cloud, public cloud, and proprietary data centers. This will take time, as planned, but we have demonstrated over the period that we were in control to make it happen without hiccup. And on Grow, we have made a step change in optimizing authorization rates across the value chain with tangible results, including increased share of wallet with some strategic clients. I will come back to the other illustrations in the following slides. Bottom line, regarding North Star, we are already ahead of plan on workforce reduction in Europe, where we expect headcount to be down by around 4% over the year, close to 500 positions. We are also beginning to see the financial benefits of North Star that we will comment in detail at Q4. The next stage is to accelerate the convergence, the conversion also of this operational improvement into sustainable net-net revenue growth, profitability, and cash generation. This is why North Star is a 4-year journey. We are changing platforms, processes, skills and ways of working that were built over many years and that we acquired through several M&A. We are increasingly confident in the past while remaining fully aware of the execution still ahead of us. As I said in introduction, customer satisfaction is one of the clearest indicators that our operating model is improving. Our annual net promoter score has increased to 40 year-to-date, 10 points above 2025, with improvement across most of our markets, particularly in Enterprise and Global Collect. And this matters for 3 reasons. First, it is evidence that the work we have undertaken on service quality, platform stability, and customer engagement is being recognized by our clients. Second, improved customer satisfaction is supporting the reduction in churn that we are seeing across the group. And third, better customer relationship creates opportunities to increase our wallet share and expand the services that we provide. Obviously, we still have variability across countries and businesses, and we are not satisfied with every customer outcome, but the group level direction is clear and encouraging. Global Collect is another important illustration of the turnaround and the growth initiative. The business grew by more than 10% in Q4 -- in Q3, offsetting the impact of anticipated churn and derisking in the acquiring portfolio, which is the second component of the Global Commerce division. This performance follows the repositioning of the business and a significant program of platform modernization. The platform migration is now in its final phase with the new portal fully deployed, the Connect API migration virtually complete. We are using this modernized platform to improve authorization rates and customer experience, including through the deployment of GenAI with measurable operational improvements already in place. The focus for Global Collect is now on sustaining the growth trajectory while improving the business economic contribution over time, meaning NNR contribution over ER. We are notably extending Global Collect geographic reach into Latin America through a strategic partnership with a leading local acquirer. So as you can see, Global Collect is a concrete illustration of what North Star is designed to achieve, modernizing and simplifying the platform, strengthening the customer proposition, and creating the conditions for sustainable, profitable growth. Mobility and Self-service is another good example of a business where Worldline has a clear right to win. Revenue grew by around 10% year-over-year in Q3 with bookings up 15% year-to-date. We have successfully launched in the U.K. and Ireland, and we are seeing strong traction in Italy. And regarding EV charging operators, we now serve 3 of the top 10 European operators. Our strength comes from combining a broad payment proposition with deep vertical expertise across transportation, parking, vending, EV charging, and fuel retail. These are environments in which payments have to be deeply integrated into physical infrastructure, operate at scale, and deliver very high availability. And this fits perfectly Worldline technical and technological capabilities and European footprint. Mobility and Self-service illustrates how we intend to grow, focusing on areas where Worldline has genuine differentiation, combining payments with deep vertical expertise and scaling those capabilities across Europe. Finally, I would like to comment on Tap on Mobile. Innovation remains fundamental to our North Star ambition. Tap on Mobile is a good example on how innovation investments made over the past few years are now translating into growth. The solution is now live across 24 countries with merchant sales value reaching EUR 1 billion since the beginning of the year, doubling versus 2025 9 months. We are scaling it across new use cases, customer segments, geographies, and partner ecosystems. We are deploying it directly for SMBs and enterprise customers, embedding it into partner propositions and extending now to unattended environments. The MiniPOS Cube is a good illustration of this approach. Building on our proprietary Tap on Mobile technology, we have extended the same software-led capability to address the needs of micro merchants with a simple stand-alone and cost-effective entering point into digital payments. Already live in Germany, the MiniPOS Cube is now available in Switzerland and in Belgium. We believe at Worldline that payments will increasingly be software-led, embedded and distributed through partner ecosystems. Worldline is well positioned to capture this trend, combining proprietary technology, acquiring capabilities and European reach. Our focus is to invest behind innovations where Worldline has a clear right to win and a credible path to economic value. With that, let me hand over to Srikanth, who will take you through the Q3 revenue performance and our outlook in more detail. Srikanth, over to you.

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#3

Thank you, Pierre-Antoine, and good evening, everyone. I will focus on 3 things today: The revenue performance across the various business lines, how that translates into net-net revenue, and our outlook. Moving on. On the table below is the published group revenue, which is at EUR 967 million, up 2% organically. For the rest of my remarks, I will use the table above, the fully pruned perimeter. This is also the basis of our full year outlook and guidance. On that basis, revenue was EUR 946 million compared with EUR 922 million a year ago, a growth of 2.5% organic. All organic comparisons are at constant scope and exchange rate. Merchant Services generated EUR 759 million, up 4%, while Financial Services generated EUR 186 million, down 3.3%. External revenue in Merchant Services caps off a sequential growth year-on-year after Q1 at 1.6%, Q2 at 2%, and Q3 at 4% and capture the recovery in activity across the portfolio. At NNR level, though, Merchant Services was flat organically. However, this reverses a negative trend, as Pierre-Antoine mentioned, for the first time over the last 8 quarters. The next 2 slides explain the commercial and mix effects between this performance in Merchant Services. Moving on to the next slide. So delving deeper on Merchant Services, SMB grew at a low single-digit rate. Momentum continued across Southern Europe with Greece and Italy performing, Northern Europe with the Nordics and Central and Eastern Europe. In Western Europe, though, it's a little bit more split. Germany grew, Switzerland stabilized, Benelux lags. For Benelux, the turnaround plan is fully activated. Our focus remains on developing value-added services as well, deepening the services we provide to existing customers in this important part of improving our NNR growth. On Enterprise, accelerated to a high single-digit growth, geographical expansion, as Pierre-Antoine elaborated earlier, on Mobility and Self-Service and as well as in Retail, which is growing. The retail pipeline and order entry is also expanding. Alongside that progress, the quarter benefited from churn materializing later than expected. We continue to expect that churn to normalize in the fourth quarter, consistent with what we believed at half year. Moving on to Global Commerce, which covers acquiring only portfolio on one side and the full service of Global Collect of acceptance and acquiring on the other side returned to a low single-digit growth. And Global Collect within that grew more than 10%, offsetting anticipated churn in the acquiring portfolio. Travel delivered double-digit growth through market share gains, and we'll discuss some of the labels on the right. And digital returned to growth through increased wallet share. The wins and upsells on this slide include Emirates, Wizz Air, Blizzard Entertainment in Global Commerce and SBB in Enterprise. These examples show the breadth of our commercial activity across the customer base. Now moving on to the next slide regarding mix impact within our NNR. We explained why revenue -- external revenue growth is not yet translating into net-net revenue growth. First, again, as we said, net-net revenue is stable after Q2 2024. And the take rate on external revenue is also stable. When we say take rate, it's external revenue divided by merchant sales value. The unfavorable business mix, as anticipated during the Capital Markets Day that some of you will remember, actually has 3 components: One, which is the customer segment. We did anticipate the FS being lower, that's materializing with the commercial rebound being slower that we elaborated last quarter. Second is on verticals. Growth is higher in the fast-moving consumer goods, which is, in fact, a volume game, while the travel and digital is scheme fee intensive and we've seen that as part of our Global Collect portfolio. Finally, on the geo, the markets with indirect sales channels with partners and banks such as Nordics and Italy, respectively, have been growing. And these have an impact on the NNR dilution more globally. And they're not so different from the questions we answered in the last quarter, and NNR is an area for us to watch for us to reverse the mix. So in SMB, value-added services is one of the areas we will work on to rebound on the NNR. Now moving on to Financial Services. The revenue was EUR 186 million, lower 3.3% organically. Excluding non-recurring items, revenue was down 5.1%. The legacy contract terminations we've been mentioning through the year continue to weigh on our revenue, while recurring processing activity remains resilient across most markets, issuing, acquiring account, and instant payment as we elaborate on the slide. Digital Services grew through fraud detection and trusted authentication. We continue to position ourselves on Digital Euro and on FIDO, our passwordless authentication and digital identity is also supporting the opportunity pipeline. Financial services bookings increased 91% year-to-date. We need to continue to sign those large deals that Pierre-Antoine mentioned earlier, while harvesting on the installed base for the value-added services. Wins and upsells include BSI, Transactis, Credit Agricole, Payment Services, the labels you see on the right. Now as regards SIX, we have recently agreed to extend and augment our ATM services partnership, including fraud management capabilities. As part of SIX's multi-vendor strategy, certain scopes will be diversified across other suppliers. Hence, certain scopes that we had could not be renewed. This development does not anyway have a material impact on our revenue outlook until 2029. We continue to work closely with SIX across a range of critical payment services and remain committed to supporting the Swiss payments ecosystem through our leading technology, our operational resilience, and innovation capabilities. Now moving on to my final slide is on the outlook. Very simply put, we are confirming our outlook in line with the guidance we presented to you in the last call. On revenue, on adjusted EBITDA, and on free cash, reported net leverage that we confirmed was achieved at H1, we will sustain for full year. And with that, I hand you back to Pierre-Antoine to conclude.

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#4

Thank you, Srikanth. Thanks, a lot. So in closing, Q3 provides further evidence that Worldline is on track with its North Star trajectory. Customer satisfaction has increased materially. Churn trends are improving overall and commercial momentum is strengthening with year-to-date bookings up in Financial Services, Global Commerce and Enterprise. We, therefore, entered the fourth quarter with confidence, but not complacency. We expect the Q4 trajectory to remain consistent with the expectations we set at H1 and now start the 4-year journey. Building the Worldline we want will require sustained execution. But our ambition remains clear: Establish Worldline as the European champion in payments, trusted by its customers, differentiated by its technology and expertise, disciplined in its allocation of capital, and capable of delivering sustainable growth and cash generation. We know the work that remains ahead of us. The progress achieved this year strengthened our confidence in North Star and in Worldline future. Thank you, and we are now ready to take your questions. Thanks a lot.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question, and the question comes from Frederic Boulan from Bank of America.

Frederic Boulan

analyst
#6

Maybe one question, firstly, Pierre-Antoine, if you can help us understand a bit the underlying growth trends in MS. So we're back to flat NNR. If maybe we can break it out between SMB, Enterprise, and Global Commerce, what is growing? What is still declining? And any color on trajectory of the business line would be very helpful. And Srikanth, maybe a question around the -- I know it's not a quarter for costs and cash flow, but any comment on where we're tracking? I mean it looks like you're happy with the progress of North Star. You flagged the impact of geographic mix on NNR. I mean what about margins? I mean, I would assume Benelux probably higher margin than Italy. And maybe a quick follow-up. If you can clarify your comment on churn in Enterprise to normalize in Q4. Can you be a bit more specific what that means?

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#7

Okay. So we'll try to cover all your questions. So on Merchant Services, and I will comment at the level of ER and I will let Srikanth come back to the transmission into NNR. So as you said, things have been -- we have an improved behavior across the board. The only area where we are still struggling is the Benelux SMB for several reasons. Switzerland is stabilized in Q3, which is an important element in our trajectory. And obviously, as you remember, Benelux and that starts to be the answer to your question on margin, Benelux and Switzerland were very high in terms of margin. So we need them to come back to sustainable growth. Germany is behaving well, mid-single digit with a mix, which is obviously as any, I would say, consumer market in Germany, there is a very, very strong traction of FMCG, so the low-cost discounters in Germany to the detriment of specialty retail, and this has an impact, obviously, on the mix, on the margins. But the SMB business is behaving well and is behaving, I would say, better in Q3 than in Q2. At the same time, on the various channels that we have, the [indiscernible] or the third-party market. Central Eastern Europe is continuing to demonstrate good growth, high single digit. Italy has been accelerating in Q3. So we are back to very high growth. Greece is continuing to behave well. And in the Nordics also, we have a good behavior even if we know that we will lose one of our ISVs, which has been acquired by one of our competitors. So they will finally migrate to this competitor. So in a nutshell, this is how it works. If I take the Enterprise segment, so we have higher growth in Mobility and Self-service than in Enterprise -- than in Retail, sorry, at the same time because of the context, but also because of our very strong positioning in Mobility and Self-service, as I described. And in Global Commerce, so we are globally back to growth. As you remember, we have, in fact, 2 parts in Global Commerce, one which is acquiring only in digital and travel. And so there, we have done some -- we have delivered some derisking of the portfolio that explains why it has been negative during the recent quarters. And Global Collect, which is not really getting the benefits of the re-platforming, we are at a level of 10 plus [ percent ].

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#8

Yes. Hello, Fred. So I'll take your questions on, first, I'll start with the Enterprise churn and there is some known -- so in terms of Enterprise churn, again, Enterprise has the 2 domains, as Pierre-Antoine mentioned, it's Retail and Mobility Self-service. Today we did a deep dive on Mobility and Self-service. But on Retail, there has been known churns, not very different from what we are talking about in FS. These were planned, but they have just taken -- the customers have taken a longer time to leave us and that's what we're calling as delayed churn. So we know that's going to happen. It's a question of timing. What we're expecting in Q3 is now deferred to Q4 and partly to 2027, and that normalizes a bit the Q4. And it's a similar point in the Nordics. So that's what we talk about as churn. And then in terms of the margin, as we said during H1, the NNR has been dragging. Now we've turned flat, but it's still lower in terms of the trend. The good thing is both of them are showing positive trend, the ER and NNR so far. But the NNR drag has an impact on our profitability, and therefore, we've been having to work on the cost control during H1, and we'll continue to do so for the full year in order to protect the EBITDA. So that's a little bit the NNR to EBITDA conversion, more of the same as what we said at H1. You also had a question on, by segment, how does the NNR intensity work? Obviously, we have the 3 products, right? So one is the hardware. Second one is really the acceptance. And third one is acquiring. So when we do terminals and acceptance, there is no impact between external revenue and net-net revenue. On acquiring, it is the impact of external to net-net. And if you break it down by segment, SMB has the least intensity because we have talking about local customers, and they are working with some local schemes as well as international card schemes. On the other hand, the highest impact of scheme intensity is on global commerce due to the cross-border nature of that business. And then we, in between, we have Enterprise. So that's a little bit the NNR intensity or scheme fee intensity that drives NNR low. And on cash, I mean, we've confirmed the outlook, we are progressing well on North Star. We are progressing well on the various aspects that we mentioned during H1. So we'll give you more color for the next quarter.

Operator

operator
#9

We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Hannes Leitner from Jefferies.

Hannes Leitner

analyst
#10

Yes. Congrats to the good results. Maybe you can talk a little bit, given you have now closed all the acquisitions, if there is any extra payment expected or any cash flow or below the cash flow movements for next year. You called out, for example, ANZ, you will still do some services, et cetera. So just thinking about some potential one-off costs in that regard. Maybe then on Benelux, you can talk about the reasons why this is lagging and struggling. The MiniPOS Cube looks encouraging. So how much of that could address some of those lagging factors?

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#11

Maybe I'll take the one on M&A. Hello, Hannes, I hope you're well. On the M&A, yes, we have closed all the deals. In fact, India and Australia were closed a couple of days after our H1 call. In terms of what is to come, I think there's only one main thing, which is on the divestment that we made on the MeTS. It has a long -- it's a complex carve-out. So there is still cost to come for which we got paid and we'll be incurring those costs in the next couple of years. And on the other side, the completion accounts of MeTS is yet to be done. And we also presented at H1, there is a deferred compensation of EUR 50 million that we need to get. So that's the 2 -- and both of them are around the same number. So EUR 50 million of deferred payments to be received from MeTS in the future. For the carve-out cost, we've gotten paid. We need to execute that over the next years. So that's the only real thing that's at play. Everything else is more or less closed. Regarding ANZ, and we also did mention that we'll do a small technical services for BillDesk as part of our Indian divestments. There's no additional cost incurred. It's really revenue cost. It's a normal project kind of work that we will do.

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#12

Thank you. On Benelux, so maybe 2 comments. First, you're right, the MiniPOS Cube is a great product. We launched a different version, but the concept is the same in Germany a year ago. In 1 year, we sold 10,000 of this solution. But that's addressing in this case, the micro merchants. So it's really the entry device, which is good, and we are coupling it in the Benelux together with the Launchpad solution. So that will help us on the low end of the market. More generally speaking, on Benelux, so we are -- how to say that, there is a part that we should be able to fix quickly, all this being linked to the NPS. So the NPS in the Benelux remains negative and remains in the negative territory. And so that gives you most of the explanations of why we are struggling. So part of it can be addressed with additional, I would say, focus on customer service, which has been a bit, I would say, under pressure because of the ODD remediation that we are doing in the region. So all this is creating an adverse type of climate and we are putting in place more means to overcome this challenge in terms of relationship with the merchants. And then the other topic is linked to technology since we are in Belgium still on the legacy, acquiring back office and platform with a limited digital experience. So here, we will fix more structurally this market with this shift to the next technology. So in a nutshell, what does it mean? That means that we want to be stabilized in the Benelux in the course of H1. To be back to growth, we need to have made significant steps in the digital journey on the local market.

Operator

operator
#13

We will take our next question. The question comes from Emmanuel Matot from ODDO BHF.

Emmanuel Matot

analyst
#14

I have 2 questions. First, do you expect the cost savings from the North Star plan to become a significant driver of profits from next year onwards? Because if I'm right, there is no significant positive contribution expected at the EBITDA level of 2026 from this plan. And my second question, I was wondering whether the first rollout had taken place for the Launchpad digital onboarding platform and whether the early signs are promising?

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#15

So on North Star, you're right. I mean what we communicated last year for '26 was, if I remember, plus 10 on EBITDA and minus 40 in terms of ROI and CapEx. We will be probably a bit better on than that for 2026. The bar is higher in the plan for 2027. As we see it today, there is no reason to challenge that. So we were speaking about EUR 80 million in 2027. And considering the progress that we are making, we should -- I mean, there's no challenge on that. Regarding Launchpad, so it is a journey because devil is in the detail when you are speaking about digital experience because we don't do something cosmetic. We really do something which is -- which touches the deep dimension of the merchant account, the KYC, the document justifications, the order of payment terminals, and so on and so forth. So we have a succession of versions, which has been launched on the market, on the target instance, so not on the legacy instance. So it's really starting Q1 and Q2 2027 that I anticipate to see the results. But I mean, I'm confident about what we are building and that it will be able then to expand very quickly on the other geographies.

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#16

Maybe just a point of precision also, and hello, Emmanuel. When we said 10 and 40 for '26 and EUR 80 million for '27, there's also an associated cost against that of 50. And that's why during the CMD, we said, after '27, it becomes a breakeven and then a self-financing plan. So that's still what is in the making, and we need to work towards that framework, yes.

Operator

operator
#17

Your next question comes from the line of Herve Drouet from CIC CIB.

Herve Drouet

analyst
#18

The first one is I'm trying to get, what prevents you to launch now in other country, MiniPOS and your Launchpad? Is it because of reason of client relationship? Is it because of technology and the back office? Or is it there are other reason, maybe some cannibalization of existing revenue that for the moment prevents you to do so? So that's my first question. And second question is, I did not get what was the non-recurring items in financial services that changed a bit the organic trend? So if you just can specify what is these non-recurring items?

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#19

Yes. Okay. So MiniPOS Cube, there is no reason not to launch elsewhere. It's just a marketing effort, campaign, marketing campaign to organize the onboarding and the provisioning on the various instances that we have. So we are launching -- we have launched Belgium and Switzerland. Then obviously, we will expand in the other markets. There is no reason. We are targeting, in this case, micro merchants, which is a market where we've been a bit -- where there were some risk of disruption from the newcomers, that you know. And we are very happy to have this solution with the right digital journey, which goes together with that. On the Launchpad, it's more complex because, as I said, the Launchpad is not just a front. It's really an orchestration layer with the front, so that is impacting the various, I would say, back end of the company. And so it's a bit slowed down by the fact that we are -- we still have a long way before having one unified stack on the back end, and that's the reason why it's step by step. But the plan on the Launchpad is to launch it, if I remember correctly, in 4 geographies in the course of 2027, but also to expand into new segments as compared to the pure SMB. So it's a slow takeoff, which is normal because it's really the foundations that we are putting in place. But then I expect to be able to accelerate in '27 and in '28. Regarding FX, one-off or non-recurring. So there are 2 dimensions here. One is a real one-off, which is linked to a settlement as part of the renewal of a contract with a significant partner. So that's one-off, and that's the only one-off in Q3. And then as mentioned by Srikanth, we have some [ TIA ] so transition agreements with some of the disposal that we've done that is generating revenue starting this Q3 and that will last for a few quarters. But -- so it's not something that we consider as recurring.

Operator

operator
#20

[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question and the question comes from Mahir Bidani from UBS.

Mahir Bidani

analyst
#21

So just a couple from me, if I may. First one on the growth outlook. Like what gets us to the lower end of the flattish total revenue growth for the year versus the marginally positive? If you could just tell us kind of what the -- yes, what kind of gets us to the higher end of that? And then on the medium-term outlook, when we think about the free cash flow guidance, is there anything that perhaps since we've last spoken, has incrementally increased the risk of it not meeting perhaps at the interim or in the medium term, whether that is higher bond yields and higher refinancing costs that you may incur or perhaps the increased mix shift towards lower take rate revenues that perhaps doesn't get us to the acceleration of 4% over time?

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#22

Thanks for both those questions. I'll take the first one, which was on revenue growth. So obviously, the FS, there is the one-off, especially related to the claim. I think that's really the one-off that we need to, that won't repeat. And then in terms of MS, we did talk about the delayed churn in enterprise and the Nordics that will impact us in Q4 and partially in '27, but it will impact us in Q4. And then as we have said, we are cautious on the volume outlook. We were cautious in Q3. We did have the same level of MSV continuing at 4% plus and our external revenue grew at 4% plus, showing the take rate stabilization, by the way. But I think we are still cautious around that on both the consumer spending as well as on the energy prices. They are both volatile. We've seen the volume contracting a little bit in October. So we just wait and see to see how that aspect plays out, yes. So those are probably the 3 key areas that we need to watch and any -- especially on the Merchant Services, if any of the churn timing works in our favor or if the volume rebounds, then we could go back into the higher end. But we want to be cautious around where we are reviewing Q4 outlook. Now in terms of -- then your question is really on the 2030, EUR 300 million to EUR 350 million cash conversion, if I got you right?

Mahir Bidani

analyst
#23

Yes.

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#24

Okay. So on the EUR 300 million to EUR 350 million, what we did say during the Capital Market Day is we take EUR 120 million of interest cost, which was nothing but the EUR 50 million that we had as a run rate the year before. And we said we will refinance 2 bonds, EUR 1 billion at 7% each. So that EUR 70 million plus EUR 50 million gave us the EUR 120 million. We had to be extremely macro at that time. We still are macro now. So what we are looking at is, as we said, we are cash covered for 2027. We need to look at the refinancing options for '28. We'll look at the quantum, the timing and be opportunistic on the windows in order to optimize and we'll see how the spreads turn out by the time we are ready to launch. I'm sorry. I think there was also what else could impact the 2030. So one is -- I mean, I think the interest cost was an assumption. And the second one was on the take rate and on the mix. We did mention that we were slightly cautious on projecting the lower contribution margin all the way down to 2030, keeping a sense of cushion on the contribution margin. So the growth is kind of linear with the CAGR being at 4% and the exit at 5%. Maybe a percentage drop here or there, we'll need to see what the impact is. But we revised, in fact, post our divestments, the EUR 1 billion that we said in the CMD was brought down to EUR 900 million. And since we are divesting our cash draining companies, we retained our EUR 300 million to EUR 350 million of cash. So that's still quite secure in our view.

Operator

operator
#25

We will take our final question. And your final question comes from Craig Mcdowell from JPMorgan.

Craig Mcdowell

analyst
#26

Just my first one, I just want to clarify the comments Srikanth made on the October volumes. I might have misheard, but I thought you said contraction in volumes in October, just to confirm that, first of all.

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#27

Yes, there is a slight drop indeed, Craig. I mean nothing to be majorly worried about, but it's showing certain volume drops for us, yes.

Craig Mcdowell

analyst
#28

Okay. And then just a broader question, just be appreciative as kind of refresher, I guess, on inflation impacting your business, specifically in your pricing. Is your pricing broadly designed to be flat in terms of take rates on inflated volumes? Or is there any kind of inflation impact on your pricing that we need to be aware of? And then my final question was just, sorry to raise it, but just any update on the regulatory audits and investigations would be helpful as well.

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#29

I'll take probably the question around pricing and leave the regulatory question to Pierre-Antoine. So on the regulatory part -- sorry, on the inflation part. So we have 2 kinds of pricing in our industry. We have the IC++ as well as the blended. The IC++ shows what's the interchange fee, what's the scheme fee, and what's the acquiring fee. And then we have blended, which is kind of blends the 3. So what we do look at, especially when there are scheme fee revisions that will go and, of course, with the IC++ it's passed through. And for blended, we have to make sure that it is getting repriced. So that's really -- and we have a split by the various businesses of how the pricing works. And generally, acquiring is a percentage of MSV. And as long as the take rates are stable, then the inflation in the MSV, the merchant sales value, us taking a percentage of it, our revenue already getting the inflation built in. So that's how the pricing works, whereas on the acceptance, it's really a fixed price with taps. We did have an issue this year because of the Ogone to GoPay that Pierre-Antoine mentioned, which is 98% migrated. And at H1, we did have a bit of churn on the SMB merchants that impacted our revenue this year. So acquiring inflation is built in, I would say, that's where I'll leave it. And for the regulatory part, Pierre-Antoine?

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#30

Yes. So on the regulatory, there's no significant changes compared to what we shared in July. So we are continuously mobilized on this topic with a clear strategy, the resources to address the findings of the regulators, especially the NBB. The discussion with them is evolving. So we are coming to the end of the process on the AML part. So we received a recent letter, which is no surprise. The areas that they have identified are consistent with the plans that we have. They expect the program to be coming to an end, like, by the end of 2027. So we continue to be motivated on that to maintain a very close and transparent dialogue with the regulators throughout the process. And obviously, that's something that we want to have behind us in 2028.

Operator

operator
#31

We do have a further question, please stand by. Your question comes from the line of Lars Dueser from Deutsche Bank.

Lars Dueser

analyst
#32

On the flat MS NNR in Q3, can you quantify the one-off impact there? And then also, what's the expectation for Q4 based on what you said earlier, Srikanth, on volumes, but also the delayed churn in the Nordics?

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#33

Yes. We -- I don't think we really talked about one-off on MS NNR. We talked about the one-off on FS. On the NNR with MS, it's really more the mix that we talked about, the customer segment mix, the FMCG versus travel and travel and so on. And then the last one was on the geography. Where we are -- if you are partner-led or through a banking partner, then especially with the banking partner in Italy, it's between ER and NNR that impacts the NNR mix. So those are the 3 areas that impacts the NNR. So that's the one on MS. Then in terms of volume, what was the second question, sorry? Was it on volume?

Lars Dueser

analyst
#34

Second question was, yes, just how to think about NNR and MS in Q4?

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#35

Yes. I mean we are probably the only company still guiding on ER because we are still rebuilding our systems to forecast NNR. We'll progressively get there. But in terms of these mix, as long as they continue, and we see that to continue, Pierre-Antoine talked about Benelux being a key aspect where we are direct sales in Benelux and direct sales in Switzerland. And these are key markets for us to turn around and stabilize in SMB for our NNR to improve. Value-added services is going to help improve NNR. And that's really the reversing the mix that we are talking about. I would expect NNR to still drag in Q4, but we don't have -- we don't guide by quarter, of course, and we don't guide on NNR today. Sorry to not have given you a precise answer.

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#36

Basically, there's no reason for a significant shift because that...

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#37

It takes a bit of time.

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#38

That will be linked to a rebalancing of our mix of business.

Lars Dueser

analyst
#39

And then if I may, just on cash flows. Did you pay out the Italian put? And if not, what's the latest.

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#40

Not yet.

Lars Dueser

analyst
#41

Okay. What's the latest expectation there in terms of cash outs and timing? Is that something you can say already?

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#42

We originally planned that for H2. We will need to see as to when that finally gets closed.

Lars Dueser

analyst
#43

And then last but not least, on MeTS and the related cash costs you were talking about, which you incur, I think, next year. Is that in the ballpark of EUR 50 million, which you also said is the deferred compensation you get? So it's a wash or what sort of ballpark are we talking here?

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#44

It's a bit more phased in terms of the cash out. It's not all in one go next year. I think it's over the next 2.5 years.

Lars Dueser

analyst
#45

And magnitude-wise, is it around 50 or like?

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#46

Yes, it's a wash. Yes. On the global number, it's a wash.

Operator

operator
#47

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will now hand back for closing remarks.

Pierre-Antoine Vacheron

executive
#48

Thanks a lot. I will not add too much to what we said. I think we are obviously proud of what we achieved in Q3, which shows that the plan initiated 1 year ago is working and that the customer satisfaction is improving. The platform convergence is really on track and somehow ahead of the plan. We are able with that to confirm the guidance for Q4 on all dimensions and we continue to work because we still have a long way to go. Thanks a lot, and have a great evening.

Srikanth Seshadri

executive
#49

Thank you very much.

Operator

operator
#50

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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