Information Services Group, Inc. (III) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 12, 2023

NASDAQ US Information Technology IT Services special 58 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Bryan Bergin

analyst
#1

Thank you. I hope everyone is well. I'm Bryan Bergin, services and software analyst at Cowen, and I'm pleased to be hosting the Fourth Quarter Global ISG Index Call. ISG has hosted index call for over 20 years, and its role as a top adviser and influencer in global sourcing offers a unique view of the state of tech services and SaaS market buying, with a unique position between enterprise contracting buyers and tech solution providers. They offer unique perspective that we all appreciate, particularly in this uncertain environment. The format of this call is going to be a presentation of 4Q and 2022 contracting data and key trends into 2023 by Steve, Kathy, Stanton and Namratha. It will be open for Q&A at the end, which you can submit through the platform. I'll now turn the call over to Stanton Jones, distinguished analyst at ISG. Stanton?

Stanton Jones

executive
#2

Thank you, Bryan, and Happy New Year. With me today is Steve Hall, Partner and President of ISG EMEA; and Kathy Rudy, Chief Data and Analytics Officer; and Namratha Dharshan, Research Director and Principal Analyst. 2022 is a banner year for the sector. We saw unprecedented levels of demand for technology services, but at the same time, we saw unprecedented levels of disruption, especially on the supply side. And as we head into 2023, there are a lot of questions about how the current macroeconomic situation may impact the sector. So Steve, I'll turn it over to you to get us started.

Steven Hall

executive
#3

Great. Well, thanks, Stanton. Let's go through the other top 3. So first, I would say, managed services ended the year really strong. Record bookings in 2022 is really setting up for healthy revenues in 2023. And I think as we'll highlight 2022, saw over 2,600 deals awarded, an ACV over $37 billion, both records that continue to highlight really the increased tech spending across most enterprises. Number two, I think the supply side constraints are normalizing. We saw reduced attrition. I think this is going to lead to more stabilization of the workforce. After 18 months of sort of record high attrition, rapid salary increases, I think we're truly seeing a return to normal levels. Less salary pressure going forward should ease up on some of the supply challenges that we've seen. And number three, you sort of set us Stanton yourself, economic headwinds are really shifting to tech spending. It's really not clear the major economies especially the U.S and the U.S. will dip into a recessionary territory. But we do see organizations really focusing on cost optimization versus discretionary spend, especially on unproven projects. I think we'll continue to see major projects go forward. We'll continue to see digital transformation projects go forward. But I think most of them are going to need to be self-funded or have a much shorter near-term ROI than in past years. So let's take a look at the global markets. So after peaking in the first quarter of 2022, the combined market ACV did slow down through the rest of the year. The nearly $23 billion in ACV for the fourth quarter was the lowest performance since the second quarter of 2021 when the world was really coming -- beginning to emerge from the pandemic. But let me put this in perspective. The decline though was really noted in the Infrastructure as a Service space and was really driven by a decline in the Chinese tech sector with the hyperscalers, which was down over $2 billion in 2022. When we normalize for the Chinese dip, the overall market was flat quarter-over-quarter and up 1.4% for the year. From a full year view, the combined market ACV finished 6.5% higher than 2021. But again, when we normalize for the impact of China, the ACV was actually up 14% and really much more in line with the annual growth rate seen in this sector over the last 5 years. The managed services ACV of $9.3 billion this quarter rose 2% over the prior quarter and marks the sixth consecutive quarter over $9 billion. Contract activity remained robust, increasing 14% over the prior year. The 6 mega deals signed this quarter matched the quarterly average over the past decade. And this quarter saw a shift from a preponderance of restructurings to a record number of new scope deals, which is great news for the market as well. For the full year, Managed Services posted record high ACV of $37 billion and a record high 2,645 awards, with 25 mega deals awarded this year. And that's really the most since 2019. 57% of the deals were less than $10 million in ACV, but this really only accounted for 26% of the total ACV that was awarded this year. We're seeing some reduction in deal duration. This is primarily driven by application deals and lower duration restructurings, but I think the overall market remains very healthy. The as-a-service ACV did fall to $13.6 billion this quarter, a 12% year-over-year decline and the second consecutive quarter with a year-over-year drop. Again, though, when we normalize for the Chinese dip, the overall asset service market was down only 1.2% quarter-over-quarter and was up 1.4% for the full year basis. Not as strong as what we've seen but not nearly as bad as the -- when we normalize for the Chinese issues. The as-a-service now accounts for 61% of the combined market ACV globally, which is about the same as last year. Now let's take a look at the supply challenge. Namratha, if you want to walk us through the talent challenges.

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#4

Sure Steve. Thank you very much. As you rightly mentioned, after a few turbulent quarters, supply side constraints are starting to ease up. Attrition has stabilized. We are seeing hiring in the sector also returning to pre-pandemic levels. As you can see here, providers ramped up their hiring engines in a big way, for both entry-level and lateral hires. So much so that the employee growth peaked at over 26% in the third quarter of 2021. But like I mentioned, over the past 2 quarters, employee growth has returned to pre-pandemic levels, which is around 10% growth on an annualized basis. Now with the stabilization of the workforce, it is reasonable to expect to return to improve provider margins in 2023. Although a large part of the hiring and talent challenges are stabilizing, the industry is posed with newer challenges and skill requirements. The demand for specific skills like consulting skills, industry-specific knowledge, cybersecurity and data scientists remains high, and these skills continue to cost a premium. So providers that can hire and retain talent in these areas will be well positioned to capture a share of the demand we are projecting over the next several quarters. Also, as you mentioned, the industry is moving more towards cost optimization. The new edge deals demand for more optimized in other words, value-driven outcomes, which will not only have an impact on the skills that are needed, but also how they're priced. And speaking of pricing, Kathy, let me turn this over to you for an update on pricing trends.

Kathy Rudy

executive
#5

Thanks, Namratha. Again, we don't see any significant pricing changes for Managed Services in the fourth quarter. But we do continue to see, as Namratha laid out, increase in demand for specific technology as well as industry-specific skills. And those are commanding higher pricing. Managed services continues to see optimized pricing due to continued efficiencies driven by productivity, utilization for new joiners, they're finally really starting to deliver automation, AI, process improvements and really less reliance on third-party subcontractors as attrition stabilizes. We are seeing some instances where providers are going out and asking for increase in pricing across the board. And what we've noticed about that is it's really for specialized deals where perhaps a provider had a larger volume of scope and has lost some of that scope over time and are feeling pressure on margin. Additionally, we've noticed that providers are delivering things that are not necessarily in their sweet spot, where they have driven efficiencies into those processes, they may be looking for some relief in those areas. But the market is competitive. We do see a trend where enterprises are increasingly willing to pay more as we've laid out for specific industry and technical expertise that's going to drive those fast outcomes to value for them. For example, we see that our data shows the lowest bidder is really not always the winner in a deal. So value-driven pay awards are being awarded. And organizations are being smart. They're buying smart and cautiously, but they still need to drive their digital initiatives and their digital transformations. So we do still see a lot of activity in the market, which implies growth and change to driving cost optimization programs that are optimizing that what they're receiving from the market versus cutting costs just for the cost cutting as it would bring. And again, there's competition. And now over to Steve to give us some insights on the global broader market.

Steven Hall

executive
#6

From a global broader market on the managed services side, the global IPO ACV of $25.7 billion was down 3.8% year-over-year, but it was still the second best year ever. The number of awards of more than 1,700 was the highest ever. And from our perspective, there were several mega deals that were pushed into Q1 that if they would have signed in 2022, the ACV, it would have beat the 2021 ACV. Americas, from a regional perspective, America was down year-over-year. EMEA was flat, and Asia PAC grew by 3.6%. The ITO market continued to be led by the strength of ADM, really applications is driving it. It was up quarter-over-quarter, but down 2% for the full year. Applications now account for over 60% of the total ACV awarded in 2022. The infrastructure ACV of $10.3 billion continues to be challenged. The infrastructure ACV was down 29% on a quarter-over-quarter basis and down 7% on a full year basis. Only Asia PAC showed any growth in the infrastructure ACV perspective. BPO, though had an absolute banner year, records award, record ACV, the BPO market is truly being transformed with the industry-specific solutions, engineering really leading the charge there. The ACV was up 36%, best year ever with record-setting results in the Americas. Industry-specific BPO was up 50%, representing 30% now of the total BPO ACV. So just great numbers on the BPO side. Stanton, do you want to take us through the cloud and the as-a-service business?

Stanton Jones

executive
#7

Sure. Thanks, Steve. So we've talked a lot about the deceleration in cloud over the past few months, and you can see that reflected in the Infrastructure as a Service results. IaaS generated $42 billion in ACV for the full year, that's 8% growth year-over-year, and that's the slowest growth since we started tracking this segment. But as Steve mentioned, a significant portion of that slowdown is really coming from the tech sector in China, which has been under tremendous pressure lately. So if you take out the impact of the big 5 Chinese hyperscalers, IaaS would be up 28% as you can see here. However, even though annual growth is strong, quarterly IaaS growth is slowing, and you can see that reflected in the quarter-over-quarter growth for the big 3 U.S. hyperscalers here. It's really becoming clear that they overhired during the pandemic and now they're adjusting their operational expenses to fit today's macro conditions. Now we don't see this slowdown significantly impacting service providers in the near term, mainly because enterprises have a huge backlog of applications they need to rationalize and get on to cloud. So let's move to Software as a Service. It's also decelerating. The $15.4 billion in ACV for the full year represents 5% growth over the prior year. And like IaaS, we can see many providers in the space adjusting their cost structure to reflect the slowdown in demand. By category, IT service management, HCM and analytics were all up significantly on an ACV basis, while content management, collaboration and CRM were all down on the full year. Even with the slowdown, we're watching another key trend emerge in the SaaS sector, and that's the top 10 SaaS firms in our coverage universe continue to grow at a slower pace than the overall market. Our data indicates that an increasing number of SaaS firms are growing to scale and are carving market share. And as you can see here, the number of $1 billion-plus SaaS firms has grown by almost 20% over year-over-year. So in our view that unlike Infrastructure-as-a-Service, Software-as-a-Service continues to democratize. And we think this is going to create more consulting and systems integration opportunities for service providers that choose to specialize or even acquire skills in these emerging areas. Okay. So let's take a look now at our leaderboard. And as a reminder, our provider rankings are based on ACV booked on the trailing 12 months and providers are categorized by revenue and are listed in alphabetical order. And as a reminder, also, if you're interested in the regional leaderboard, you can access those at index.isg-one.com. If you haven't visited the site before, just hit the red register button when you get there. Okay. In the as-a-service category, Oracle joined the big 15 segment due to a strong showing in both Software as a Service and Infrastructure as a Service over the past year. For example, it's working with Irish Bank Permanent TSB to help it transform its data center and consolidate multiple systems. And late this quarter, Microsoft struck a deal with the London Stock Exchange, part of a 10-year partnership that will migrate data from the U.S. and U.K. exchanges to Microsoft's cloud. And staying in the big 15 category, but on the managed services side, Wipro signed a number of awards, including a 5-year application managed services agreement with Mazda Motors in Europe. And in our Building 15 category, you'll now see LTI Mindtree here as it started operating as a combined entity in the fourth quarter. And we had several new entrants in the breakthrough and booming 15 categories. One of those is KPIT. They won a $100 million-plus contract with Renault and KPIT is deploying more than 600 engineers at the French automaker. Okay. Let's now take a look at demand by region. So Kathy, over to you for an update on the Americas.

Kathy Rudy

executive
#8

Great. Much like the global combined market ACV in the Americas combined market has slowed after peaking in the first quarter, with combined market value of $12.3 billion. The Americas market has posted 3 consecutive quarters of sequential decline. This is the first time we've seen this in the index history. The Q4 decline was led by a slow in the Infrastructure as a Service space and limited growth in managed services. Managed service ACV of $4.5 billion this quarter marks the sixth consecutive quarter with a similar result. New scope awards of $3.3 billion in ACV was a new record. Though managed services ACV overall remains solid, the year-on-year compares each quarter become more difficult, mainly due to the performance of quarters in 2021. For the full year, Managed services ACV of $18.7 billion and more than 1,300 contracts represents new records in both spaces. After rising above the $8 billion mark for the first couple of quarters this year, as-a-service ACV fell to $7.9 billion. That's a 1.4% year-on-year gain, but a 20 -- 2%, sorry, dip quarter-on-quarter. ACV for the full year climbed to nearly $32 billion. That's a 21% increase, which, while lower than the annual growth rate in 2021 is keeping in line with pre-pandemic growth. And as-a-service now accounts for 63% of the combined market ACV in the Americas. With that, I'll turn it over to Steve to give you an update on EMEA.

Steven Hall

executive
#9

EMEA's combined market ACV topped $7 billion for the sixth consecutive quarter. However, the region saw growth rates fall slightly both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. The full year view shows stronger growth. The ACV of over $30 billion rose 11% over the prior year and really brings us back to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. The Managed Services ACV of $3.4 billion this quarter [indiscernible] the fourth quarter string -- the fourth quarter string of ACV above $3.5 billion, EMEA 3.5% or 3% year-over-year decline was the only quarter in 2022 to fall in the red. As it did in 2021, Managed Services finished the year on a little bit of a weaker note. For the full year ACV of $14.9 billion really reflects a 6% increase, a high really not seen since 2011 with over 1,000 deals closed during the year, which is really a record. Now if we take a look from a region or a country view, the EMEA market really continues to be led by the U.K. Doc, in France. So Managed services ACV in the U.K. was up 1.2% for the full year despite a weaker second half compared to first half 2022 in the second half of 2021. Doc managed services ACV posted annual growth rates of 12%, but it was really powered by an exceptionally strong second half that was up 36% against the same period in 2021. France was flat on a year-over-year basis, but continue to deliver over $2.1 billion of ACV for the past 2 years, which is a record as well. The as-a-service ACV of $3.8 billion in other quarter, continued to run of 6 consecutive quarters above $3.5 billion. However, it's barely noticeable year-over-year growth of 0.5% was really the slowest growth rate since first quarter of 2015. Given that the growth in the prior quarter was 5.5%, the as-a-service business seems to be slowing down a little bit in EMEA. For the full year, as-a-service generated $15.2 billion of ACV, up 17% over prior year, although that is half the growth rate of the prior year, but it is in line with pre-pandemic growth rates of 2019. The as-a-service business now makes up 51% of the combined market ACV. Namratha, you want to walk us through Asia Pac?

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#10

Sure. Thank you, Steve. As we mentioned earlier, the tech sector in China continues to have an outsized impact on overall Asia Pacific region. It's the primary reason for some of these double-digit declines you will see here. For the fourth quarter, combined market ACV was down over 30% year-on-year, the third straight quarterly decline of 30% or more. But if you were to take out the impact of Chinese hyperscalers, the combined market would have been up 10%. Now turning to Managed Services segment. It had the second best quarter ever with ACV of $1.3 billion, which is up over 20% year-on-year. Almost 100 contracts were signed in the quarter, which was a record. It was also the second best quarter for new scope awards. On a full year basis, in Asia Pacific, both ACV and number of deals reached new highs, with ACV up 9% for the year. Southeast Asia and India drove most of the growth in the region. ANZ also had $1 billion-plus year finished strong in the fourth quarter. Now looking at some of the subsegments. It was the best year for financial services ACV, which now accounts for over 35% of the market. Applications had its second best year and BPO finished strong with nearly $1 billion in ACV for the year. On that note, Stanton, over to you for the industry updates.

Stanton Jones

executive
#11

Thanks, Namratha. So as a reminder here, we're going to look at changes in demand measured by year-over-year changes in annual contract value by industry. So let's start with BFSI, the largest industry in our sector by ACV. For the full year, combined market generated over $20 billion in ACV. That's an all-time high. And as you can see here, up 13% year-over-year. and BFSI Managed Services grew by 14% year-over-year, and most of that growth came from the Americas. Inflation was and unfortunately, still is a red hot topic and historically, health care companies tend to do well in this environment. So for the full year, health care and pharma combined market generated almost $9 billion of ACV and that was up 13% versus 2021. We also saw travel bounce back in 2022. So it's no surprise. This sector performed well last year. Combined market ACV was up 13% year-over-year. And finally, energy is another vertical that advanced last year. There was $5.6 billion in combined market ACV. That was up 6% versus 2021, primarily led by strength in the Americas. Okay. Steve, back over to you to close this out with the forecast.

Steven Hall

executive
#12

Great. Thanks, Stanton. Well, clearly, with all the macroeconomic conditions, we've given the forecast a lot of thought this quarter. And we got a couple of factors here. 2022 started off really hot. ACV was up across the tech sector. But as you noted, we started seeing cracks on our July call, particularly in the SaaS discretionary space. And those cracks have only deepened. By October, the weakness had really seeped into the Infrastructure as a Service market. As we said, this is partly due to China's regulatory issues, zero COVID policy, et cetera. But we did see the big 3 hyperscalers also begin to struggle and their growth rate started to pull back a little bit. Managed Services, on the other hand, generated 4 consecutive quarters above $9 billion in ACV. We saw record set in BPO, especially in engineering and industry specific. The Americas and EMEA turned in record highs for managed services and Asia PAC had its second best year ever. So we're getting a lot of conflicting pieces. The ITO market slipped 4%. You could argue against tougher compares, but the ADM ACV or the ACV held steady each quarter, but the legacy infrastructure really dropped 7%. So 2022 had a lot of cross currents, many caused by the macro environment. So looking ahead to 2023, I think we see some positive news. First, I think the central banks are coming to the end of their high interest rates. We're likely to see a couple more, but I think they're taking a bit of a pause, make sure that we understand what the impact is on inflation. We don't expect them to pivot, but I think with the economy should recover, I think most economists right now see a pass sort of from inflation from 9% to sort of 3.5% by June. That really appears to be a clearer path now. China is reopening. The U.S. dollar is off substantially from its recent highs. Technology is the most currency exposed sector, with 60% of its revenues come from outside the U.S. So they are more exposed to the FX fluctuations. But again, I think the dollar is starting to stabilize. Supply chain is starting to normalize with China reopening, so that's better. Manufacturing should be in a better shape, anything on the consumer side. Enterprise spending has not really been significantly cut and we don't really see further cuts or really improvements that's going to change their spending levels by the second half of the year. So as-a-service is probably the one concern. They are dealing with tech access. They're going to go through reductions in workforce. That's going to help their margins kind of get them profitable, but it's really got to compete with and compensate for some of the softening demands and rebalancing that we have. So given the softening demand, cost corrections that we're doing, the market technicals and forecast. I think our forecast for the as-a-service market in 2023 is going to be 17%, which is well below the growth forecast for the past several years. As for Managed Services, we're really seeing a reprioritization spend. We aren't seeing major project cancellations. We're continuing to see sort of digital transformation activities go forward. But we do see sort of a focus on cost optimization that should really provide some favorable tailwinds to the Managed Services market. So I think you'll see a continued trend for shorter durations of contracts. Attrition should stabilize, the labor market should stabilize. So I think given all of these factors, I think we'll see a 5% growth rate for the Managed Services in 2023. Now historically, this is still in really strong territory for Managed Services. Last year, we were 5.7%; this year, we're 2023, we're projecting 5%. So I think we're still in good territory for the growth of that business. So with that, let's go to questions. We'll now open it up. Please type your question or comments on the right side of the screen. Bryan, would you like to start the questions?

Bryan Bergin

analyst
#13

Yes, sure, Steve. Thank you all for that detail. I'd say I think I'm more optimistic you on the services front than many would expect given the current backdrop. I think to start, if we could just begin with maybe a high level 2023 budget behavior question. So I'm curious if you're seeing any enterprises delay their IT budgeting cycles, just amid this uncertainty. Do you think this year is any different than what you've seen in past years as it relates to that timing? And anything you would just call out there differences by geography or industry?

Steven Hall

executive
#14

Do you want me to take that one, Stanton?

Stanton Jones

executive
#15

Sure.

Steven Hall

executive
#16

Sure. Yes. So I think, in general, Bryan, no. I think we see increase in tech spending, though we're seeing a reprioritization of that. As Kathy mentioned, I think cost optimization is going to be a really big play this year. And I think the cost optimization is going to look at how can we better rethink through our spend to continue to invest in the new areas that we need. So if we look at the IT sector, for example, you're likely to see probably growth in Managed Services as we talked about and a little bit of pullback on some spending in some other areas, but it's really just optimizing their cost. I think the engineering side, the industry-specific BPO side are going to continue to accelerate as we think through that space. There's just good signals, good demand from our standpoint across the board on that. From a regional standpoint, clearly, Europe is in worse shape than the Americas from a broader economic standpoint. I think the energy issues, they're starting to stabilize have caused people to make sure that they're being smart going into 2023 budgets. That being said though, we're still seeing really strong demand across Europe. I think the U.S. is in a bit of a better shape from an energy standpoint and some of the pullback. It's interesting because when I look -- we talk a lot about the layoffs that are happening in the tech sector. Those layoffs are happening, though, after almost a 400% to 600% increase in FTEs over the last 5 years. So you're talking about coming down off a really large number as we've seen this massive hiring over 2020, 2021 even through 2022. So we're, quite frankly, not seeing the same signals on the demand side, and we see spending across enterprise is still continuing.

Bryan Bergin

analyst
#17

Okay. Maybe just -- you're talking to a moderation in the as-a-service market and your forecast there, yet your view on managed service is a bit more optimistic and stable there. Can you talk about why that might be and why that as-a-service weakness isn't necessarily seeping into the managed services side just yet?

Steven Hall

executive
#18

Yes. You want to take that one, Stan, do you want me to continue?

Stanton Jones

executive
#19

Yes, I'll take first a bit, Bryan. So kind of as we talked about on the earlier today, I think it's important to keep in mind, and we did show this on one of the previous slides, definitely seeing a slowdown in ACV growth on the Infrastructure as a Service side, pretty significant slowdown, as you saw from the data. I think it's important to keep in mind the -- and we talked about this a lot over the past, how much the service providers and GSIs, how much of their pipelines are linked to the hyperscalers. But what has happened is, if you think about when cloud really started taking off in enterprise 2015, 2016, especially post pandemic, many enterprises made really big bets and investments on moving workloads to these hyperscale clouds. I think that drove a lot of that growth that we saw on the hyperscale side, and we would call that like a framework agreement, a commitment that over 3 years, we're going to move x amount of volume to those platforms. That said, what many enterprises are not finding is after -- because we're past sort of that easy phase of cloud. Now we're in the heavy lifting phase. Now we're getting the big heavy industry applications, mainframe, it's hard to get those applications moved. And so in our view, the GSIs and the enterprises have a mountain of applications to rationalize and get moved, and it's going to take time to get there. Is it as fast as the hyperscalers want it to go? No, it's not. And so -- but there's also other reasons for a slowdown and it's kind of specific to each hyperscaler. That's why, broadly, we're not as concerned about the potential impact on the short-term slowdown on the hyperscale side as it might impact the global GSIs. Steve, I don't know if you have...

Steven Hall

executive
#20

Yes. No, I think that's right, Stanton. And I think, Bryan, at the high level, everybody is -- the infrastructure business continues to slow down. We've talked about that for a number of quarters. You saw a further decline this year. I think that's going to continue. That's being offset in the market by the high level of apps and engineering that's going forward. And those sectors are growing much faster than what the infrastructure is declining. And that's part of why our forecast is a little lower even though we see good demand because we know that's going to continue to come down. As we think about that, I think it's also going to be impacted by the energy prices because you're going to see people try to shutter data centers, get rid of those costs and move them in because their energy bills are going up so high. I think it's going to be impacted by ESG initiatives, especially as we refocus on ESG and rethink through that in 2023 and beyond. Because just, quite frankly, the cloud is -- it tends to be -- in most cases, it tends to have lower CO2 emissions than internal data centers. They tend to be much more efficient. You can control your workloads much better. So there's a couple of mega trends that are out there that are going to continue to push how we think about it, which will continue to put pressure on the infrastructure side of the Managed Services business.

Stanton Jones

executive
#21

Okay. And then, Bryan, just to follow up on that because we're really kind of focused on infrastructure, not as much on SaaS, which we also said is decelerating. That's obviously just a broad slowdown in tech, in general, lots of different reasons for that. The impact there on the GSI side, I think, is going to be a little bit different because those tend to be more project-based systems integration-type work of going in and implementing one of those platforms or one of the modules of those platforms. Could we see some slowdown there for firms that have a big exposure on the consulting and systems integration side linked to a specific platform that we see that slowdown on? Yes, absolutely. But then it's also -- it's very much of a cross current market as a lot of what Steve talked about, we saw some real winners this year on the SaaS side, IT service management, HCM do cover analytics. But we also saw some decline. So I think it very much depends on the SaaS side on the unique platform and the degree to which the GSI has made a bet either through M&A or hiring on that particular platform and space. So I think it's going to be a mixed message this year.

Bryan Bergin

analyst
#22

Just on the last point, Stanton, you mentioned some areas of strength within SaaS for the year. I know you mentioned service management, HCM and analytics. Was that still the case in the fourth quarter?

Stanton Jones

executive
#23

Yes. So yes, very much so at least on the -- very much so on the HCM side. I'm going to spend -- when you get to the next question, I'm going to look at our data, and I'll answer you on analytics management. But yes, on the HR side, yes, we saw a very and this actually, there was another question coming in here broadly around HR SaaS and around HR outsourcing, which both really had a very strong year for HR. I think some of that is going to be driven by -- Namratha talked about this, just this exceptionally tight labor market, a lot of focus on recruiting and retaining talent, internal workforce experience, many of the SaaS firms focused there. Of course, a lot of focus on cost takeout. As I look at some of our -- we're actually running our annual HCM technology and service delivery survey as we speak. We're going to publish those results. We've been doing that for a number of years, very popular survey. 60% of respondents, which is up about 10%, expect to increase their use of outsourcing. So that would be more on the HRO side. So a strong year all around on the tech and outsourcing side for HR.

Bryan Bergin

analyst
#24

Okay. Okay. Last one for me. On the digital engineering market, when you think about pricing specifically there, are you seeing clients become any more sensitive to the price increments as you think about 2023 versus what you saw in 2022?

Kathy Rudy

executive
#25

I'll take a stab at that one, Bryan. I think you're going to see it being flat. I mean, in most areas, and again, with digital engineering, there's kind of 2 phases. One is very specific to a -- the engineering is a specific product or service that they're building out for the external market versus digitizing some internal services. And those skills are typically software engineering skills. Those, I think, will remain flat. If you're looking for more specialized skills in ways that you might go out to monetize that product or service, you might be paying a little bit more, but you're paying more for a specialized skill. So I think it will be a tale of 2 things. If it's just software engineering services. Those are going to probably remain flat. Specialized skills, once again, as we've said, will command higher pricing. But as I always like to say, the market is competitive. So you have to really think about how you're putting those deals together.

Bryan Bergin

analyst
#26

Okay. Understood. Thank you, Kathy, and thank you all. I'll drop back in the queue now.

Stanton Jones

executive
#27

Thanks, Bryan. So we've got a torrent of questions coming in here. So thank you very much for the questions. So we'll start jumping in. So Namratha, I'm going to come to you first. There's a question on talent. What does the talent landscape look like in 2023 and is the worst behind us as we've -- and you've covered a lot in 2020, the massive challenges the industry has faced around attrition, but then what we also saw happening with hiring as you saw. So what's your perspective on that question?

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#28

Yes. I think we can safely say that the worst is behind us. There's a lot of positive news that's kind of coming in, in terms of attrition stabilizing, like I mentioned, hiring, returning to pre-pandemic labels, although there will be pockets of challenges in trying to find specific skill sets, which are still in demand like the cybersecurity and the engineering services like Kathy also mentioned. But I think a large part of the industry is definitely stabilized and industry is sort of moving into very predictable patterns for companies are also kind of getting comfortable in terms of where the demand is and what kind of skill sets they need to bring, plus there have been a lot of lateral hires, freshers, and there's a lot of focus and now training and making all the freshers, be on more billable engagements and productive. So with that, I think the industry is far -- in a comfortable position compared to what it was a few quarters back.

Stanton Jones

executive
#29

Yes, I agree, Namratha. This is -- it's a welcome news for the industry because this has been a huge challenge that we really haven't seen before as we go back -- and back -- even back to 2010 and see the volume of people that were higher, but also the people moving in between as we talked about a couple of quarters ago, sort of the great reshuffle and over 40% of the folks being with their firm for less than a year. That's back down to -- I think it's around 35% now, so still elevated above pre-pandemic levels, but starting to come down, which is great news. Okay. Next question. We've got a question around -- another question around SaaS. Enterprise is actively looking to consolidate SaaS tools within their businesses because of economic uncertainty. Is there more scrutiny on SaaS sprawl. I can take a first stab at that and then I'll open up to the team. I think there's always a focus on technology sprawl. So we talk about this most quarters is this kind of desire to rationalize tools and providers, but ultimately, the pace at which business moves makes it hard to do that. I think if you look at this from the perspective of -- on the bookings side, so on the slide that we showed earlier on the SaaS side, the number of, for example, the number of $1 billion SaaS firms grew by 20% year-over-year. That's just in 1 year. So that's a reflection of demand -- enterprise demand for these tools. And so I think that's kind of the challenge here is that, yes, there's definitely a desire to rationalize and standardize, but then all these new innovative SaaS tools coming out across areas like not just IT service management, HCM and analytics, which grew really quickly, but also in new areas like security, for example. I mean that's exploding right now. So I think you see kind of a push and pull between a desire to consolidate. But then if you look at it through, again, through the bookings side and what's growing, there's an explosion of growth on the providers on the SaaS provider side, reflecting increased demand on the enterprise side.

Steven Hall

executive
#30

Yes, you nailed it, Stanton. I think if I had my procurement hat on, I would think though, I would love to be able to optimize all those costs and bring it together, right? The reality is SaaS are becoming point solutions for so many different business problems, and there are so many new capabilities that are being generated there, whether it's a specific recruiting app, whether it's an HR app whether it's an analytics piece, there's just so much opportunity there. I think it's going to be hard at the enterprise level to rationalize, right? Certainly, you want a software asset management program. You want to do good ITAM. You want to do those sort of core things that we've always done with on-prem. It's just easier to buy SaaS. It's just easier to go through and do it, which drives the escalation up.

Stanton Jones

executive
#31

There's actually a follow-up question. I'm sorry, go ahead, Kathy.

Kathy Rudy

executive
#32

I was just going to say that it's the balance between agility and governance. So you need to move fast. And so then you're moving faster and you're not really governing or rationalizing. And I think that will -- and we should look at this in future quarters to see how that starts to play out, but it's agility and governance.

Stanton Jones

executive
#33

So there was a follow-up question to the SaaS question about what I meant about democratizing. So what we're trying to -- I need to be clear on that, clearly. Basically, it's that unlike Infrastructure as a Service, which is centralizing around the big 3 U.S. hyperscalers. SaaS is democratizing meaning there's more, more providers. That's the reason we talked about the fact that the top 10 providers grew slower than the rest. And again, going back to the data, there were $37 billion SaaS firms in 2020, 47 to 2021, 56 now in 2022. So that market is democratizing, meaning the innovation is coming outside necessarily of the top 10, although the top 10 are innovating in their space, they're not innovating fast enough and they're opening up opportunity in other areas for other companies to build $1 billion SaaS firms. Okay. Next question. So Kathy, we've got a question on. Is there -- are we seeing any changes in demand for newer pricing model -- newer outcome-based pricing models? Any changes in demand.

Kathy Rudy

executive
#34

I think they're being talked about quite a bit, and I think people are really open to thinking about new ways of pricing and outcome-based deals, gain shares. I think there's more activity in the market around different pricing models, and it will just depend on if it's right for the deal. And some will move forward. But I think there is more conversation around different pricing models for sure. I don't know that we're seeing as much on the back end as we're seeing on the front end. So we'll have to talk not always coming through into the pricing model.

Stanton Jones

executive
#35

Okay. Next question. Steve, we've got a question on manufacturing in Europe and macro conditions and energy, what -- are we seeing that -- are we seeing a slowdown in manufacturing in Europe given the macro situation?

Steven Hall

executive
#36

Yes. So in Q3, we saw a bit of a pullback on decision-making. And some of the deals that we thought were going to go through and some of the value that we thought was there, we actually saw sort of a pullback. We saw that sort of move forward a little bit in Q4. I think with so much of the issues sort of getting resolved, I think we'll see a little bit of pullback potentially in Q1 just because of the demand usually comes through a quarter before, and it was a little lighter. But I don't think it will impact broadly for the year. I think the winter has been a little lighter. So the fuel is going a little further. Energy is still up way above where it needs to be, but we're seeing a little bit of pullback there. Clearly, the big unknown still for Europe is what happens with Ukraine. And that situation really has to get resolved. The longer that goes, the more concern we would have for manufacturing and energy. I think I saw this morning, I think the CPI dropped, I think, 0.1% this morning. So consumer goods should start recovering a little bit there. Certainly, manufacturing, especially across Germany is driven by spend in China, driven by spend in the U.S., other parts of the world. So exports there. I think we'll see that a little bit down, but I think we'll see that kind of come back a little bit. And I think overall for the spend, I mean, manufacturing has massive transformation that they have to go through. Not only do they have the ESG agenda that I talked about earlier. They have the whole transition to EVs, which is going to be incredible for that entire supply chain. We're seeing massive spend in that area go forward. And you've got, I don't even want to call it autonomous driving anymore, but you've got the digitization of all things physical between digital twins, IT/OT integration, new capabilities. There's so much more spend driven by software and the digitization of the physical in that space, but that's going to carry through to the GSIs and Managed Services business. So you got both long-term changes that are taking place with ESG, EV, et cetera, and the short-term energy issues that we're sort of balancing right now.

Stanton Jones

executive
#37

And I think, Steve, as I was just looking through some of our conversations with our manufacturing teams, a significant increase over the past quarter or 2 in demand, especially in Europe for cyber-related services given the war in Ukraine and disruption there happening on a geopolitical stance, that demand for. And of course, we've seen so much change happening both on the SaaS side and the managed services side on cyber and are starting to see those deals get bigger and bigger. And eventually, those are going to make their way into our index research program because everyone knows we're measuring ACV of $5 million of ACV or greater annually and seeing those cyber managed services awards grow and seeing significant demand for those kind of services in Europe.

Steven Hall

executive
#38

Yes, great point.

Stanton Jones

executive
#39

Okay. Let's stay with the economic data, Steve, another question just came in. Inflation data has just come in, 6.5% for the U.S. compared to 7.1% for last month. This seems to indicate we should ease -- we should see some easing coming up. Are we expecting strong growth on the tail end of the year?

Steven Hall

executive
#40

Yes. This is sort of what we are forecasting as well. And when we talked about the glide path, we sort of see a natural glide path now to hopefully sort of 3.5%, maybe 4% by mid-summer. So if that happens, which it looks like the numbers are starting to come in, in that direction. I think it's going to bode well for the overall business. Again, so much of that is on the consumer side. You'll see it in manufacturing, you'll see it in CPG, you'll see it in some other areas as well. So I think that bodes well for the market, sort of what really in line with what we've been forecasting, how we sort of see this glide path coming down. Again, and I mentioned this earlier, sometimes it feels like we're trying to talk ourselves into a recession, the press is trying to talk ourselves into recession, I'm not sure that the numbers support it in our sector when we look at demand, when we look at the activity that's taking place, and we look at the macro factors.

Stanton Jones

executive
#41

Okay. Namratha, I'm going to come to you next. We've got a question on nearshore. How do you see nearshore relevance to the U.S. market changing? I'm sorry, how do you see the nearshore relevance to U.S. market changing in 2023?

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#42

Sure. I think we did touch upon this topic of nearshore the last quarter as well. We do see, at least from the last quarter, we did see the growth. We said that for BCP reasons, and of course, talent was a big issue at that point. So people were casting a wider net to tap into the talent and nearshore certainly was one of the key aspects that influenced. So that, I think, was kind of picking up and we will continue to see that trend. There is still a high interest in growing some of the nearshore centers, also into increase kind of the presence in the same time zone, to increase definitely the talent pool that they can actually attract. For U.S., particularly, I think LatAm has been one of the growing areas from a personal track one of the markets, which is the contact center. And I know that LatAm, for example, is a huge investment area where a lot of the call centers are actually being opened up over there to cater to the U.S. market. So at least from that perspective, like voice, if I have to take an example, nearshore is certainly picking up. But for all the other reasons that I stated, like the BCP, the talent, some of the specialized skills, which we will continue to say that it is going to be a challenge in getting those specialized skills. For those reasons, I think it'll continue to pick up. There is a demand.

Stanton Jones

executive
#43

And kind of related to that, I don't know what the rest of the team thinks about this. But from my perspective, we were kind of in the middle part of 2022 at the peak of demand and inquiry and interest around building captive centers in response to the attrition challenges that the industry -- and from my perspective, that has dropped off pretty significantly in terms of enterprises asking ISG for advice guidance and input about building out a captive center. I don't know if you all have seen the same thing.

Steven Hall

executive
#44

Yes. I think it's sector related and geography related Stanton. I know across Europe, we're still seeing really good demand for internal, I'll call them global innovation centers or global engineering centers now. And part of the reason for that is the digitization of the business and the softwarization of the business is meaning that more and more of their core business is driven by engineering activities. And things that they feel that they really need to own or have their badged employees, at least deeply engaged in, right? And I think that trend is going to continue. The concern that I have, though, that I have is there's geopolitical issues that are impacting sort of the growth in Eastern Europe. The pricing has become fairly high in Eastern Europe. So the value prop isn't necessarily as strong there. We're looking at sort of Southern Europe and other areas of the world where, again, to Namratha, to your point, for time zone, proximity, et cetera. But you don't have the same number of talent pool available. The scale is just not there to do it, right? So it's a bit of a quantity right now, and I think we're looking at different universities, cities, different locations that may not be as obvious on how we think about GECs and GIC. So being said, we're still very much in the global model. So I think you will continue to see -- and you're seeing it in the collaboration numbers just on SaaS, you're still going to see more and more push through globally collaboration, how to do it with proximity still being important, but probably not the key. It's still a race to talent in so many ways. But how do I own it as an enterprise to make sure that I'm driving...

Kathy Rudy

executive
#45

Steve, I think it's also -- it was risk mitigation, making sure that you weren't spread -- spreading out your risk versus being in specific location that may have impact from a geopolitical perspective. And I think a lot of people were responding to that saying am I at risk with my current locations and should I spread that risk? We did a lot of questions around location.

Stanton Jones

executive
#46

Okay. We've got time for a couple more. So we've got a -- do you see specific vertical markets where our BPO will be more in demand than others. I can take a stab at that and then I'll open up to the team. So we've talked about a lot, really, most of that growth in the BPO sector is coming from the industry-specific BPO. So using analytics and data to rethink business process, so less about labor arbitrage and more about platforms and data. I think from my perspective, as we kind of look at the data, really most of that demand or a large portion of that demand is really coming from banking, financial services and insurance and health care. Those would be the 2 industries. Steve, I don't know if you see something different.

Steven Hall

executive
#47

No, I wasn't even looking at the data, Stanton. It's clear for me, it's those 3. It's banking, rethinking through everything there. It's insurance where analytics are being deeply applied, driving new and health care is absolutely a huge, huge driver of that growth. And those are big cyclical trends. Those aren't just a blip that we're seeing in the data. This is rethinking through how business is done and how analytics can be applied to new problems and new insights.

Stanton Jones

executive
#48

Okay. We've got a question around, are we seeing companies reinventing their portfolio because of recent issues and challenges. For example, focusing on mainframe modernization instead of moving away from mainframe to cloud. I can take a stab at that, and we'll open it up. I think the question is timely, given what is happening at the -- with flight patterns in the U.S. and in Canada right now because I can probably guarantee you there's a mainframe behind the scene somewhere that is the cause of that. I don't know if we know for sure what the cause is. But there is -- I think that there was a perspective early that much of the mainframe would go away because of cloud, but I think it's actually the exact opposite and it goes back to Bryan's earlier question. We're into the heavy lifting phase now. And in order to modernize a mainframe, you're not modernizing the mainframe. You're modernizing the applications that run on the mainframe. And there are hundreds or thousands of applications that were probably written 40 years ago that run on that mainframe. So that's where we see a lot of this progressive modernization happening, taking slices of applications, modernizing them through various tools and approaches, many of those running on cloud. So from my perspective, that is very much happening and there's some really interesting things happening in the market, some providers choosing to specialize in that area where you wouldn't necessarily think it's a growth market, but there is, of course, a very strong demand for cobalt programmers and a new generation of cobalt programmers to maintain those applications while they're being modernized. So that would be my perspective, at least as it relates to modernization, especially around the mainframe was being more progressive modernization rather than kind of a lift and shift.

Steven Hall

executive
#49

Yes. I mean we've talked about this in the past. I mean, I think so many people have been calling for the demise of the mainframe for probably 40 years now, right, and it's going to continue to be part of the overall enterprise infrastructure and architecture. I think you nailed it, though, I think we're really moving to a services and API-driven approach. So as you think about the business functions that are being done, however, they are hosted to wherever they're done, what are those services and how do you enhance those services with other data or other insights? And that's the piece that we're seeing. So I think it's really coming from a business standpoint and an app standpoint versus the infrastructure.

Stanton Jones

executive
#50

All right. Steve, one more question and we'll close it out. We've got a question around Infrastructure as a Service demand slowing down, but demand for cloud IT services were made stable due to backlog. So they're talking more about the service provider GSI side. Does that mean that demand for cloud and IT services, so basically cloud managed services on the GSI will reduce some point in the future.

Steven Hall

executive
#51

Yes, this has been the debate that we've all had on the forecast and everything else. So first, cloud is moving forward. We're absolutely in a world where hybrid cloud and public cloud are going to be core to the architecture of any organization. And that's not really slowing down from a decision-making standpoint. Sort of the world we're in right now and what we saw in Q3 and Q4 and sort of deceleration, let's just separate the Chinese and focus on the big 3, if you will, where massive frame contracts that were signed, where workloads or consumption hasn't moved to those environments or those workloads haven't moved as quickly as we thought they were going to, and even the hyperscaler sought that they were going to. So that's caused a decrease in their actual revenues because they had big bookings. They didn't come through. We've got to accelerate that piece. In one sense, you could say GSIs are going to benefit from that because there's going to be massive pressure to help move that. And it's absolutely a core thing. It's hyperscalers, it's the enterprise, it's the GSIs, working together to make that happen. And there's a lot of big blockers there. It's not a matter of people not wanting to do it. There's hard work. We know that cloud spend is going through the roof. We know that cloud sprawl is a real issue. Organizations are still really trying to figure out what this whole dev SecOps means. FinOps is on top of that. So how do I really manage spend. And quite frankly, there's so much value from moving to the cloud environment that we're trying to figure out what's the value proposition, not just from a cost standpoint, but look at all the other great value that we're achieving. So in a nutshell, I would say I think it's good for the business that we've got a little bit of this because we're going to -- it's kind of pick up and move that forward. Long term, I'm a little bit concerned about Europe because of data sovereignty, cloud sovereignty, what's going on there, how that will impact sort of the GSIs just in Europe. And I think in the U.S. and other markets, I'm not as concerned as others that a slowdown in the cloud is going to impact a slowdown with the GSIs. Because, again, more broadly, it's a massive trend that's moving forward.

Stanton Jones

executive
#52

Agree. Okay. We are right at the hour. Perfect timing. A huge thank you to Bryan and the entire account team for hosting the call today. As a reminder, you can access the slides from the call today, the regional leaderboards and many of the questions that we didn't get to today, there were a lot of them at index.isg-one.com. And finally, our first quarter 2023 call will be on Thursday, April 13. Thanks for joining us, and happy new year. Thanks.

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