Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
June 3, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Paul Silverstein
analystGood afternoon. Paul Silverstein, senior analyst at Cowen. Thank you for joining us for our 49th Annual TMT Conference. It's my pleasure to have with us this afternoon, John McCool, who is Chief Platform Officer and SVP of Engineering and Operations at Arista. I've had the pleasure of knowing John for many, many years, going back to your previous life at Cisco. John, thank you for joining us. Greatly appreciate it.
John McCool
executivePaul, great to be here as always. Thank you.
Paul Silverstein
analystWhy don't, for the benefit of those who don't know you, and they should, but for those of you who perhaps don't, what's your role out at Arista? And what are your key areas of responsibility?
John McCool
executiveSo I have responsibility for hardware design, platform design, our system test teams and very excitingly, these days, supply chain and manufacturing.
Paul Silverstein
analystPerfect. All right. So you know what, let's start off with COVID-19. Since you're the supply chain guy, among other things, how much of an impact did the pandemic is having? What's the greatest constraint? I assume it's Broadcom switching silicon. And is there any visibility at present as to the timing of resolution or meaningful resolution?
John McCool
executiveYes. I think the highlight most recently, I think, that's caught everybody's attention is the semiconductor constraints. But I think it's also good to remind everybody that this started over 15 months ago with the shutdown in China that really reacted -- really created a hole in supply. At the same time, I think, to a lot of folks' surprise, demand continued, not just for networking equipment, but everything in general. Most recently, semiconductor lead times have extended from what previously had been 24 weeks to 50, 52 weeks, which means companies are having to place bets for what's going to happen next year. Difficult, Paul, for me to predict when this will end. I think there's a lot of experts that talk about capacity coming online. I think semiconductors is also not just constrained by starts at TSMC and wafer starts, but we hear challenges in assembly of devices and still the constraints of human labor that might come into play. So I think as the rest of the world starts to see vaccinations, hopefully, we start to come out of this.
Paul Silverstein
analystJohn, I'm not here to talk your book, but you guys have a very talented team. Again, many of you, yourself included, came out of Cisco, and in terms of the execution against those constraints. So we've heard from a number of companies, there's no improvement. It's challenging. Lead times are extended, but we're executing really well. Does that define Arista in terms of -- is it having a meaningful affinity impact now? Or are you all concerned about a meaningful impact in the near future?
John McCool
executiveI think we've aligned our visibility in the supply chain to what we're talking in terms of our forecast. So we feel pretty good about that. I would say it continues to be a constraint, and people are working every day in the last 15 months making sure that we have the right mix of supply at the right time. I think one thing I would just say about our particular team is we've gone through supply chain challenges before. I think we're very adept and fast-moving and believe that, that gives us some opportunity to, perhaps, do a little bit better than other folks in the market. We also don't compete on a semiconductor level. So we've always had tight alignment with our partners and that continues.
Paul Silverstein
analystI assume that tight alignment helps relative to the next question, which is there's an obvious risk of overordering. That's not unique to Arista. Everybody in IT has that risk. Any insight, any thoughts as to how pregnant that risk is, if at all?
John McCool
executiveI think what we're seeing is customers adjust to our extended lead time, which is, in turn, extended due to the supply constraints. So definitely, there's more visibility. I think pickup -- customers are having to make decisions sooner than they would to think about what they're doing 6, 9 months from now because of the constraints on lead time. But I don't think that we sense that there's kind of a double booking or alternate designs or that kind of thing at this point, especially as we're more intimate with some of the larger accounts and their plants.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. One last question on the COVID-19 supply chain, which is, as a data point, have you all engaged -- has Arista engaged in any overordering?
John McCool
executiveNo.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. And that -- by the way, that is the response I've gotten from every one of my [indiscernible]. No, they haven't, which is a good sign, if you all are representing a larger group. But let's move on to the demand side of the equation, and I want to start with your biggest business, which is cloud. You've talked about increased visibility from cloud tying customers across 100, 200, 400 gig, with I think your last comments, by you, I mean, Arista, Jayshree, Anshul, the lot of you all, with visibility stretching out to the end of calendar '21 and into even calendar '22 versus the typical 1 to 2 quarters of visibility. Assuming I've got that right, is that extended visibility a function of your customers seeking to help you better manage your component requirements in order to meet their delivery requirements? Or do you think you could also potentially -- well, you've already addressed that. I mean, I trust that is a function of customers trying to help you out to help them out.
John McCool
executiveYes. That's our sense. I think especially the larger customers are very aware of the challenges in the market and want to be aligned that we get the right mix of product to be able to address their needs, insight into what their architectural decisions are, what products they're going to use. So we've gotten better visibility, I think, as a result of this extended lead times in the supply chain for sure.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. You all have understandably noted that the comps get harder in the second half of this year. That said, should Arista meaningfully benefit from the 200-gig ramp at Facebook and the 400-gig ramp at Microsoft? It looks like those are going to ramp meaningfully, and it's not there yet, but come the second half of this year, shouldn't that ramp have a significant positive impacts supply constraints permitting?
John McCool
executiveI'll kind of avoid guiding the year. I'll let Ita do that.
Paul Silverstein
analystNo. No, no, feel free to guide away.
John McCool
executiveBut I think we feel well positioned, both with the products that we're ramping, where we are with the 400 -- we would call it, the 400-, 200-, 100-gig cycle and on how we're positioned to address it. And definitely, there's interest in moving ahead with new products that we felt really good that we've had in the market for some time.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. And John, I'm going to apologize upfront. I know I'm asking you a lot of well tried and ground questions. Questions that I've asked of you and Jayshree and Anshul many, many times publicly and privately, but I got to keep asking. And so that big wind up. You've had dominant market share in Data Center during the 100-gig upgrade cycle. Any concern as market share loss in 400 gig because a lot of investors constantly worry that you can't go up given where you're starting from. You can only go down and you've got white box, you've got Cisco, you've got Juniper and you've got other risks.
John McCool
executiveRight. I think we feel confident that we're going to maintain share in the cycle. I would kind of also just reinforce, we went -- that 100-gig cycle was really moving from 40, 10 to 150, 25. Now this cycle, we view as a 400-, 200-, 100-gig cycle. With customers -- even the same customer might make different splits of 100 gig, 400 gig in their estate, if you will. So no, I think we feel good about maintaining our share with cloud customers. We see other opportunities in specialty cloud types. And then the enterprise space for us is still -- we're still relatively small and feeling like we're gaining really good traction with the architecture that we've put together and being able to pull the dress multiple use cases inside enterprises that wasn't a fact even 2 years ago.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. I'm going to come back to enterprise in a little bit, but I want to stay on cloud for touch. And I want to ask you about the risk from architectural change, in particular, is there any concern as architectural change by hyperscalers, adversely impacting their demand for switching, independent of competitive factors? And to be specific, I just heard a Microsoft executive discuss eliminating top of rack switches when they start deploying 51 terabit boxes and homing multiple servers to what I assume will be those 51 terabit leaf switches. They'll probably come from you, I assume they'll come from you. But they're talking about eliminating top of rack. And I recognize maybe they'll need more leaf switches. So it doesn't necessarily mean it's a meaningful downtick in your overall spin, which in turn hurts you and everybody else. What do you -- what can you share with us on that issue?
John McCool
executiveI don't think we would see that as a significant architectural shift, maybe a different deployment topology. So especially in cases -- and this happens today, we call this kind of an end-of-row architecture as opposed to the top of rack. If you can pack a rack with 48 servers, it makes a lot of sense to put the switch at the top of the rack from just a physical distribution of the switch and the connection of the cables. Because of power and sometimes some of these use cases that might use more memory or disks, it becomes impractical from a footprint to fill that rack with 48 switches. Maybe got 24 or 12. And just the chunk of switch you buy with 48 ports, it might make sense to put them, what we would call end of row and interconnect them with 1 switch that goes across multiple racks. So it might not be a diminishing of network ports or connections, but just an acknowledgment of some physical topology and cooling situations that you get into. But people will still run leaf spine, highly interconnect it, require the software and ECMP to do that, that EOS has really been quite famous for as well as tap into their management system, being able to run an agent on the operating system.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. Presumably, you or Arista, you're pretty familiar with -- or intimate with Microsoft's forward plans. And if it was a concern, you'd be aware of it. I presume.
John McCool
executiveI would hope so.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. Let me move on. Let's start -- so Microsoft and Facebook have obviously been a big part of the story from the day you went public, even before you went public. But more recently, it looks like some of the other, what you call your cloud titans, and I assume -- I don't think you've stated it, but I assume Google and Apple, in particular, have stepped up with some more meaningful revenue contributions. I trust you're not going to want to get really detailed here, but let me ask you, any visibility as to those customers directionally going from relatively modest to more sustainable, far more meaningful, the way Microsoft and Facebook have done, putting aside whether they get to that particular level in terms of hundreds of millions of revenue generation? Anything you can share with us?
John McCool
executiveThere's definitely opportunity for Arista, especially as people's networks get more complex in nature. And I think particular, we get asked a lot about white box. There's 2 customers that use a lot of white box. And I think a lot of times we get pushed on, well, is white box going to eat the opportunity for folks like us and our competitors. We see that we also have opportunities to push against white box in some of these places where it has been very relevant.
Paul Silverstein
analystOkay. You just anticipated my next question. Let me ask you, are you seeing any impact from Cisco's merchant silicon strategy in the data center or in the enterprise market for that matter? And let me also ask before you respond, no shame on Arista, but all customers want diversification, especially the large hyperscalers want diversification at every level. And Broadcom has done a phenomenal job at the chip level. Most -- while you do use other silicon, you're heavily dependent upon Broadcom or [indiscernible]. We've got a check that says Microsoft just swung a piece of business to Cisco in large measure because they have a non-Broadcom-based solution. And so it wasn't a function of your capabilities versus Cisco so much as wanting silicon diversity. Any thoughts you can share in terms of how big a risk that is?
John McCool
executiveYes. I think I would just say, from a competitive situation, there's always been multiple sources in all of these large cloud providers, right? And there could be some shift in share of some of those alternates. We feel pretty good about our ability to maintain share. And I think a lot of the challenges that folks have had competing against Broadcom don't go away. They just have executed very well, and we've partnered with them closely to do our part around software and integration with the SDK and have a differentiated solution. So I think some of the challenges of introducing a new silicon alternate will exist in -- as we go forward with what our competition is doing as well.
Paul Silverstein
analystJohn, specifically on Broadcom silicon, given how important they are to the overall equation, and I recognize you all deliver tremendous value on top of that. But in terms of Broadcom's Tomahawk or Jericho chipsets being a gating factor to your ability to ship your next-generation products, any visibility as to their ability to deliver?
John McCool
executiveI think for -- and I would broaden that to just semiconductor because I don't think the challenges are unique to Broadcom. It's getting wafers, getting assembly, everything is constrained. The downstream from all these suppliers. So it's -- it continues to be a challenge. Obviously, we have good visibility there, but we also think a lot about downstream and smaller components that we're buying today and making sure that we have them available as well.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. Just to wrap up on cloud before we go over to enterprise. Your commentary recently the last couple of quarters has been far more constructive, far more positive regarding what you call your specialty cloud or tier 2 cloud. Juniper calls it cloud majors. But this is a group that the investment community doesn't focus on nearly as much understandably as web scale. But if I look at the Dell'Oro numbers, there is big -- collectively, it's the big 4, 5 web scalers. And so collectively, they could have quite an impact. And what visibility do you have as to the improvement you've seen from them being sustainable and being meaningful going forward? What are you seeing from that group?
John McCool
executiveIt's hard to pull them together as a group because they all have kind of individual strategies. There are some that we have quite a bit of visibility into and probably others less so. I do think that the same effect that we're seeing with cloud titans just in terms of the demand on their networks and more users, et cetera, and concern about continuity exists in this other segment as well, for sure.
Paul Silverstein
analystRight. John, on the competitive front with that group, Juniper cited 100, 400 gig wins, all with those cloud that -- your specialty cloud, cloud majors. Any sign, any concern that they're having success against you and cutting into your opportunity?
John McCool
executiveNot really.
Paul Silverstein
analystI know it's a big customer audience. I'm not sure you realize how big but...
John McCool
executiveRight. I think competitively, we see Cisco more in opportunities we're engaged with in multiple segments than Juniper. I can't explain to you why that is. It might just became -- we came from different areas and came to routing in a different way. I think in some routing use cases, we certainly see Juniper, but maybe less holistically in some of our data center opportunities.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. Let's go over to enterprise and start with campus, which is, I think, your biggest opportunity in terms of growth. You only entered not much more than a year ago. You drove $100 million as you said you would in your first year, which for anybody who knows, the life cycle networking that's quite an accomplishment. You put out there this $200 million number, 100% growth for this year. My short question to you is, what are the opportunities for upside? What are the risks of not getting to that $200 million?
John McCool
executiveSure. I think it's important for investors to realize to how we're going after it because I think we're doing things a little bit differently. We're not viewing campus as some separate market segment. It's a use case within the enterprise go-to-market. We get asked a lot about go-to-market and coverage, et cetera. So our teams are very focused in the enterprise, I would say, in Fortune 2000 or even smaller customers that use their network strategically to drive revenue, financial services, media, entertainment. So that's been very consistent. What's happened is the portfolio has broadened, right? We went into routing so we could address interconnect use cases that with Big Switch and Awake network visibility and security detection and campus. I think since we've come out, the early days is -- can Cisco -- can you do use cases similar to Cisco, with data, voice, video? And I think we've demonstrated that. I think what we've done in the last year is really drive some differentiation in the offering. So in terms of risk and opportunity, I think continuity with our enterprise go-to-market is the opportunity. We have more insertion points with the enterprise now with a broader portfolio. Obviously, what people do in campus and whether they're going to invest continues to be a lingering question. But we do see people starting to come back to offices and kind of picking up where they left off on moving to IoT and need higher speeds. I can't trust the devices. I have to make some decisions.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. If I recall, you all have made clear that the pandemic, which was a concern for you roughly a year ago in terms of impacting your ability to grow, it sounds like you're beyond that, that it's not -- other than the supply chain constraints, perhaps, than it's not that pregnant if at all an issue at this point.
John McCool
executiveYes. I think there's still some questions about what happens in the campus, and customers are all over the map. Some took advantage of the downtime to upgrade their networks because nobody was in the office. Others are still wondering whether they're going to have office space. So it's a pretty crazy collective. But I think given where we are, we feel really good about the opportunity to hit $200 million. We came out this year with a new modular switching product. I think it's a segment that's been largely ignored. And there are still customers that are running very old modular kits that have large levels of interconnect and high-rise buildings that are still interested in having connectivity for people coming to work.
Paul Silverstein
analystJohn, this is an important point you've raised. Feel free to disabuse me the notion, but understandably, you didn't enter the market all that long ago. You got to walk before you run. And that means, right now, you've got a handful or perhaps 2 handfuls of platforms that address in your binocular of the use case or the market opportunity, everyone to think about it. Cisco has got the equivalent and product families, as you know. So they cover the waterfront in terms of 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, et cetera, multiple iterations. And they've got 30-plus years of code in terms of the breadth and depth of that code. And that code takes time, just like the insurance provider business. You've, over the last year or 2, you've meaningfully enhanced the breadth and depth of your code, which enables you in turn to address more used cases and to be better positioned in the use case that you're already addressing. Are there like -- you just entered the market, so I trust it's not a meaningful limitation, but are there limitations in terms of the breadth and depth of your solutions today? What do you need to do? What are the most urgent things you need to do to expand that opportunity and to be more effective in competing against the opportunity you're currently addressing?
John McCool
executiveYes. I think, first of all, just going back to your service provider analogy, the depth isn't as substantial as the various cases you have. And also when you get into the service provider, it's not only, do I have MPLS XYZ feature, how do I integrate into my OSS and my conformance to how I integrate everything else so there's some specialty functionality for different providers. In the enterprise -- in the campus, can I handle data? Can I handle voice? Can I handle video? That was step one for us. And I think, Paul, you and others had a lot of questions about whether we could do that successfully given the loads of features. And we've done that differently and in some ways, much more simply than the legacy. So I think we feel really confident in kind of that base use case. What we've announced in the last year with zero trust security is actually, I think, highly differentiated it from the competitive offerings. And being able to offer visibility into the campus, being able to see all the devices and what they're doing and being able to do some interesting things with group segmentation in a nonproprietary way that allows you to put devices and groups and set policy based on whether they can or can't talk to each other and do that within either our CloudVision or through APIs with third-party integration, like we've done with Forescout. So I feel really -- pretty good. There's obviously more products that can be built and more depth of the portfolio. But really with the anchors of the modular switch and the fixed switching, we feel like we've kind of set the tone.
Paul Silverstein
analystJohn, your response raises multiple questions. And so I'm going to apologize because there's probably going to be several questions and one that I'm going to ask you here.
John McCool
executiveNo problem.
Paul Silverstein
analystIs there an opportunity at present primarily situations where customers want best-of-breed in winner diversity and are willing to incur the cost of bringing in or switching to new supplier? My last shot before Cowen, our CTO, used to love to say, I don't get up at a bed in the morning. So switch vendors for less than 25% price cost improvement, given the cost of retraining, given the risk involved and going to what have been a tried and few solution to the unknown. As great as you are, maybe it works, maybe doesn't. There's always issues, some boxes get deployed no matter how big the supplier, et cetera. Why don't I let you respond to that before I ask the follow ups.
John McCool
executiveYes. I think that there are definitely folks that going to sweat the assets and stick with what they know. And the incumbent has huge share in the enterprise. There's no doubt about that. We've gone up against that before. But I do think with COVID, there was a disruption in the status quo. Disruption is good for a disruptor. I think we've seen a lot of people look at what we're doing, not just in the campus. I think it's important that they look at the whole solution and what we can bring to bear. And it's an unusual market. If you look at servers and storage, there's much more diversity of the vendors that people deploy in their IT environment. Somehow with networking, there's been this, I think, myth, that it has to be all the same thing to be consistent. And we're challenging that. Even things we've done with group segmentation, you can intermix Arista switches with an existing brownfield opportunity and introduce policy-based segmentation without going end-to-end. So we look for those opportunities to integrate but in a nonproprietary way with open APIs and work with third parties to put a best-of-breed network together as opposed to best-of-breed product.
Paul Silverstein
analystGot it. I know you touched on this earlier, but from a go-to-market perspective, you're focused on larger organizations, where you probably already have presence on the data sort of switching side and where you can address those directly. So I trust the channel presence, it's not that you don't have a channel presence, but I trust it could also be far larger and higher quality, and it will be over time. How big an issue is that channel today? How much do you need to do?
John McCool
executiveI think the team has done a good job. We have to lead with the Arista differentiated message from our account teams. As you pointed out, these are customers that have long used the incumbent. So we really need to set the tone with the value proposition and everything we can bring to bear. In specific engagements, then a partner comes into play. Customers have partners they've dealt with for a long time that they want to use in the deployment, in the architecture. And as we've gotten bigger footprint, more of them are willing to invest with us to learn about Arista and come along for the journey.
Paul Silverstein
analystI want to return to your comments about Awake and zero trust security in -- Arista often, over the years, has spoken about, you truly are differentiated from Cisco. And I trust you are differentiated. But from a different vantage point, I've long thought you, in large measure, replicating Cisco, just a more focused, younger version. And so maybe you won't end up doing everything Cisco is doing, but with the passage of time, and Awake is a good example of this. Previously, your mantra in security was we partner, we partner, we partner, best of breed, Palo Alto, whoever. And lo and behold, not surprising, I don't think it should be surprising to anybody, no shame, you buy Awake. And I trust you're going to make other security acquisitions in addition. And I trust you will make acquisitions to the extent you already -- you don't have it or don't have it in a full measure and net visibility, app visibility, assurance, automation, orchestration. I recognize, we have a lot of the stuff already. But my question to you is, aren't you going to continue? Won't you continue to strategically and organically to round out the capabilities and take this more of a full solutions architectural approach as opposed to just a switch, the traditional box approach?
John McCool
executiveI think we're down that journey, right? Even with -- before any acquisitions came into play, things we did around CloudVision and the management stack and the orchestration, but it all is aligned to making the network better. So there is some fundamental grounding in these pieces that we're adding. It's about running and operating the network. And also, despite Awake continuing to partner an integration with best-of-breed security providers, we don't see that as mutually exclusive. This is around network detection of anomalies. And we do have some capability that we can actually make that work better because we can stream from EOS more information given the sort of SysDB architecture we have and then just make it easier for customers to consume and deploy that. But again, we're very cognizant of the need to interoperate just given where we are from a share perspective, needs to work together with the incumbent and other suppliers and other third-party solutions.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. We've got 2 minutes. So we're really going to go into speed dating here, John. Routing, you've expanded that solution set. You're now addressing more opportunities, more use cases. Do you still have a lot more you need to do? If so, what's the time frame? Or do you think you now have plenty of opportunity in front of you? And what's new and different? And what can you share with us with respect to your success, whatever metrics [ for the year ]?
John McCool
executiveI think with routing, if you look at the different segments, cloud, we've done extremely well with the routing solution and what we had for a while. Enterprise, they just don't buy as many routers, but it's been very meaningful as a solution to be able to offer that as part of the data center because you have to route data center to data center or data center to hybrid cloud. Service provider has been the more difficult piece for us in routing. I think we did really well out of the chute with some opportunities that were more greenfield and less replicable. Ken and his team has added considerable functionality over the last 2 years, which I think is positioning us better. And also, as telcos kind of move from kind of traditional routing to more of a telco cloud approach that plays to our strength. So we would be excited if that timetable moved a little bit faster, and people are still predicting that's going to start to shift, but we'll see.
Paul Silverstein
analyst400ZR is your plus, it's on the verge. It's been on a verge for quite a while, but it finally seems or, hopefully, it will be real in terms of commercially launching, any thoughts you can share for your expectations? DCI, you've addressed -- you said a lot in the past in terms of being a big market opportunities, but what can you share with us? How far, how fast in terms of impacting the model?
John McCool
executiveI think it's kind of our thinking is baked into the model here, right? It starts with ZR. We see 400 gig coming in at the top of these networks and interconnect. We're pretty happy with the ecosystem as it's developing here. And we'll see how the supply ramps, I think, from early trials and qualification, things are pretty well behind us.
Paul Silverstein
analystAll right. Finally, strategically, where does Arista need or want to go in the future?
John McCool
executiveI think, continue this foundation of making the network easier to run, easier to operate and I think the announcements we made with zero trust security inherently more secure and making it more visible, so people can feel comfortable that any threats that come inside around the special -- people bringing devices and using at home into the office can feel secure about their networks and their IT environment.
Paul Silverstein
analystGreat. John, I want to thank you as always. Always great to have you with us. Great to see you. Stay healthy. I want to thank everybody out there again. I hope it's been a great conference, but if I could be any help to anyone on Arista or any other name, it would be my pleasure. Take care, everyone. Thank you.
John McCool
executiveThank you, Paul.
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