CIE Automotive, S.A. (CIE) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to CIE Automotive's Fourth Quarter 2025 Results. Today, we have Jesús María Herrera, CEO; and Lorea Aristizábal, Director for Corporate Development. [Operator Instructions] And now, I'll hand over to Lorea. Go ahead, please.

Hello. Good morning, everyone. We're going to start talking about what's happening in our industry, and we're going to review in detail 3 of the major current issues; the Chinese OEMs, the tariffs, electrification. We think that this helps to put our performance into context. On the one hand, and talking about the Chinese OEMs that you ask a lot of questions about, they have continued to make headway during 2025, both in the domestic market and internationally. Domestically, they have continued to gain market share. They had 65% of vehicle sales in China versus 60% the previous year. China's exports have continued to grow by over 20% during the year. They've gone from 6 million to 7 million exported vehicles, which means exporting 20% of the Chinese production. And a highlight is an increase in exports to Mexico and the Arab Emirates regions where in 2025, they haven't been penalized with tariffs and they have also increased tariffs to Europe. The tariffs in Europe only affect electric vehicles. So the increase in exports in 2025 has focused on combustion engines and hybrids. In parallel with the exports and due to the tariff barriers that are being imposed, many OEMs are making progress in their implementations outside China. And this we see in different versions. We see greenfields for CKD assembly as BYD did in Turkey and Hungary, both projects, which have been delayed, waiting for the new European regulation on local content. We have also seen joint ventures like the one -- Stellantis and Leapmotor have a JV, whereby Leapmotor vehicles will be produced at Stellantis plants outside of China. We've seen the subcontracted of CKD as XPENG have done. They've dealt with Magna to assemble cars at the Austrian plant of Magna. We've seen acquisitions of plants abandoned by other OEMs such as BYD and Great Wall did in Brazil or as it seems might happen in Mexico. The news in Mexico right now is that several Chinese OEMs are making offers for the Nissan and Mercedes plants in Mexico, and that includes BYD, Geely, Chery or Great Wall or just partnerships with Western OEMs. We've seen the alliance between Geely and Renault in Brazil to share resources or the alliance with Geely with Ford in Europe to assemble Geely cars at the European Ford plants. In any case, regarding CIE, we confirm that we are fully prepared to pick up the volumes of the Chinese OEMs when they produce in the various markets where they are being deployed once they pass the CKD phase and start with real local production. We are confident that we are the type of supplier they need with an international presence with multi-technology production and with investment capacity. Secondly, the star issue in 2025, the tariffs. And we're going to look at it from the European perspective first. In the Europe-China relationship, Europe announced in January the potential expansion of the current tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles to our hybrid vehicles, too. Why? Well, the European Commission considers that Chinese hybrids, which are flooding the European market receive the same level of aid and subsidies as electric vehicles and should, therefore, have similar tariffs. In February, this month, a pre-agreement has been reached between China and Europe, which proposes replacing the current tariff regime with a system of minimum prices and quotas. The first case of the system has been Cupra Tavascan, with China and Europe now open to following that model and to carry out an OEM by OEM and model-by-model negotiation. Europe has also reached a historic agreement with [ Medical Sud ], opening new markets for both. And as far as import tariffs on components and vehicles are concerned, the agreement is a gradual reduction of existing tariffs by both parties. And this would allow for a larger flow than the current one. And to be realistic, is practically non-existent. And there have also been agreements between Europe and India, a very ambitious agreement between the 2 regions by which the tariff rates are significantly reduced on vehicles and components, but the reduction is very gradual over time. So, we are not seeing a direct impact. And in general, Europe and the world, it is true that there have been certain bilateral agreements. But what stands out most is the progress of European authorities in demanding minimum local content requirements that we expect to be published in the coming weeks. From the U.S. perspective, which is the star focus for the year. There has been a strong initial escalation during the first half of the year and a partial de-escalation. And you're asking a lot about this U.S. Supreme Court ruling, canceling the so-called reciprocal tariffs does not apply to the automotive sector. They continue to be in force. And remember that the U.S. imports approximately 7.5 million vehicles in big figures, 4 million from Mexico and Canada, 2.5 million from Japan and Korea and 1 million from Europe. And although Trump initially imposed a generalized tariff of almost 30%, he has subsequently reduced that in specific geographies. What do we have right now with the United States to bear in mind? The 4 million cars that are imported from Mexico and Canada, if they are USMCA compliant, it is 0. And otherwise, it's a 25% tariff. And in the case of non-compliance, the tariff is applied to the non-U.S. content. The 2.5 million cars imported from Asia, a 25% tariff. The million cars imported from the European Union, a tariff of 15% according to the bilateral agreement, although now that bilateral agreement is being questioned. The cars produced in the United States, there's a credit equivalent to almost 4% of the vehicle selling price, which offsets tariffs paid on imported components. So regarding CIE, this protectionist wave of local production and tariffs should involve a partial reduction in global vehicle exports, and we feel very comfortable with our local-to-local model, which gives us a natural protection and provides leverage in the local implementation of the various OEMs. Finally, electrification, what progress has it made with very different -- in the different markets. In the case of China, the penetration of electric vehicles has continued to rise. Electrified vehicles now amount to 50% or 55% in 2025, with the support of the extended incentives from '24 to '25. In Europe, it's also true that there has been a considerable advance in the market share of electrified vehicles with an increase of 6 percentage points in 2025, where electrified vehicles in Europe reached 27% of market share in sales, an improvement supported by the incentives brought in, in some key markets like Germany and the launch of new electric models that are affordable or more affordable by European OEMs. And finally, the case of the United States, which is the opposite to what has been seen in Europe and China. The penetration of the electric vehicle in the U.S. has fallen. It's fallen 1 point compared to 2024. In September, all the incentives were removed associated to the purchase of electric vehicles, and this has penalized the situation. What do we expect for 2026? Well, the prospects for electrification are not particularly good. In China, because the incentives have already been reduced. The local incentives have been removed and there are anti-dumping policies that have been imposed by the government. So in theory, vehicle prices will rise in Europe because there's been a relaxation of European emissions from '25 to '35, which could increase the lives of combustion engine vehicles. And in the case of the U.S., because the incentives to electric vehicles has been withdrawn and the negative impact of the whole regulatory environmental review carried out by Trump. Well, it seems that this is going to have a negative impact on the sale of electric vehicles. And you will have seen all the impairments and all the write-offs that the Big Three in Detroit have carried out with over $50 billion in impairments related to the new electrification strategies. And in fact, you will also have seen the review of analysts like IHS regarding the forecast for the penetration of electric vehicles in the future and how these figures have gone down. From our perspective, the rate of electrification is not a critical issue with us. And what's very important, more than 80% of our sales are agnostic to electrification. We have flexible production means, and we adapt to demand. What has the market done during this fourth quarter and in 2025 in the midst of all these variables? Europe has remained flat in the fourth quarter. And there has been a year of minus 1% overall. North America has shrunk 1% in the fourth quarter and also minus 1% for the whole of the year. Europe and North America are very similar. Brazil has contracted slightly in the fourth quarter. But after a boom and very good figures in the first 3 quarters, the total growth in Brazil for the year has been 5%. The best news come from India, where production in the fourth quarter has had a spectacular growth, plus 19%, driven by the VAT reduction, the reduction in the tax on vehicles, which has been very significant as well as a good monsoon system and the fact that the Diwali festivities have been concentrated in the last quarter of the year. So, India overall has grown by more than 8%. And other segments that are not passenger vehicles have also done very well, positive in 2-wheelers with 8% trucks, 17% in tractors. It's all helped. And finally, China has grown 3% in the quarter and 10% for the total year. Our total market, 4% for the fourth quarter and 2% for the total year. Our sales have grown 10% in the fourth quarter, which implies a strong outperformance of 6 points with regard to the market, an outperformance that is still mainstream in the various markets. And in 2025, CIE has grown by almost 4%, 2 points more than the market, accompanying an EBITDA that has grown 8% in the last quarter to EUR 183 million, with an EBITDA margin that has expanded by 80 points in the total for the year and EBITDA that has grown 2.5% to exceed EUR 746 million, with that 19% EBITDA and EUR 543 million in EBIT, almost 14%. Below EBIT, lower financial expenses than last year, offset by higher fiscal expenditure. So, growth in net profit of 4% in the quarter, up to almost EUR 70 million. And in the total for the year, the profit amounted to EUR 335 million. The headlines, an outperformance of 2 points with regard to the market with a significant growth and an EBITDA margin of 19% and a record net profit of EUR 335 million. That's the summary. If we look at it from the point of view of cash generation, bearing in mind the complex environment in 2025, our focus has always been on protecting and optimizing profitability and cash flow, a cash flow, which has been very solid, especially during this fourth quarter, bearing in mind that there are no cash outflows related to acquisitions and dividend payments in this quarter. So, we have generated EUR 86 million in the fourth quarter, and this has contributed once again to deleveraging our balance sheet with a new historic debt low of 1.18x net financial debt EBITDA. We've had headlines for P&L. What would the headlines be for cash flow? We have reduced debt by almost EUR 100 million. While we have closed 2 acquisitions, we have carried out a sort of takeover bid where we have acquired 1% of the capital, and we have paid EUR 125 million in dividends. So the extremely high recurrent cash generation allows us to grow and create value, both through M&A and with remuneration to the shareholders. And also in 2025, we've closed a strategic plan where we have reached all our goals. Our sales goal has been exceeded 25 points during the period of outperformance over and above the market, an EBITDA margin of 19%, excellence in the sector, excellence in the sector. And that in spite of the huge negative impact of all the variables that we've discussed and we'll continue to discuss with a CapEx at EUR 20 million and complying with the most important thing of all. We have reached a cash generation of EUR 500 million in the year. And achieving those EUR 500 million in cash generation is a special merit considering all the adverse circumstances you're aware of and that this is a goal in absolute value. So, we have to highlight it. In parallel with meeting our financial goals, we have also met our ESG commitments in the environmental area. We have reduced Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions and intensity in energy use. In purchasing, we boosted proximity purchases with a percentage of local purchases that's almost at 80%. Safety continues to be our top priority in people management and an essential pillar of CIE culture, with a percentage of plants with an ISO 45001 certification of 100% of the certifiable plants and sustainable financing, green financing that amounts to 70% of our gross financial debt. And I'm coming to the end, we believe, that this shows an impeccable performance in 2025 and over these 5 years that should consolidate our reputation for financial discipline and full and unwavering compliance with our commitments. We have closed a plan. It's time to talk about the future, a future that remains uncertain with a great deal of uncertainty. But in spite of that, we believe that we're going to continue to grow in size and results, thanks to our financial model, our business model -- sorry, our financial position and an extremely committed CIO organization. That's where our guidance comes from. You've seen that we can comment on them during the Q&A, a 1-digit outperformance of the market, maintaining the excellence of operating margins in 2025, a number of ESG commitments with regard to the environment and the social area, attracting talent or in governance and EUR 1 billion or more than EUR 1 billion in operating cash generation. And this takes us to a net financial debt of 0.7x, net financial debt to EBITDA in 2027 and a low debt that allows us -- and this is one of the major headlines, to increase the payout and the remuneration for our shareholders. An increase in remuneration that we can reconcile with the inorganic growth that we expect to have in these 2 years without excessively penalizing the company's debt, thanks to our high cash generation profile. And now the Q&A. You'll be able to talk to Jesús María, our CEO, who will be delighted to answer all your questions. Thank you.

We're grouping the questions by themes because there are a lot of questions to make it more efficient for everyone. We'll start with the final acquisition or the latest acquisition. Can you give us more color on the acquisition of Aludec?

Well, good morning, everyone. I'm Jesús María Herrera. And first of all, I think that we have to celebrate the strategic plan 2021-2025 and congratulate all the CIE Automotive team. Regarding Aludec, I'll start by saying that I think that it's one of the few family companies that today can contribute a great deal of value to CIE Automotive, first of all, because it's going to allow us to continue to diversify. We're going to create a new division, the branding division. And we are also going to be able to grow the current European presence and a small presence in North America, both in Mexico and the United States. And with the synergies with the rest of the group, we have to take this to much larger dimensions. And in the midterm, the goal of also growing in Asia with them. So therefore, we're very pleased with this operation. Very few operations, as I said, can contribute so much value to CIE in the medium and long term.

Some questions on the guidance. On the sales side, how is the plan distributed in '26, '27, softer in '26, stronger in '27? Any clues?

Well, this time, comparing it with the previous plan, perhaps, the previous plan, 2021-2025, you will remember that we grew a great deal in the short term in 2021 and 2022 because we came from major acquisitions in 2019, that with the group synergies and the coming in of new customers brought about a very large growth in the short term. And then in the medium and the long term, like the rest of CIE, we work at medium or low single digit. For the next couple of years, we don't have any major acquisitions, let's say, that will make us see a different 2026 and '27. They'll be very similar, plus or minus 1 point.

And the margins in the guidance, are you being somewhat conservative perhaps because we can see there's an increase in sale, but there isn't an increase in margins. What's the hypothesis behind this? Well, I love the confidence you have in CIE. I love it, how 19% seems like very low. They are insatiable, Jesús María. Insatiable.

Those of you that know me, know that my goal has always been to reach 20%. It's true that we reached 20% at many plants, but it's also true that there are some areas where reaching that result is really very difficult. I think that setting 19%, which I hope will be 19.1% or 19.2%, but our ambition isn't going to stop at 19%, although I think that we have to give it the merit it has.

There's a doubt about whether the guidance includes Aludec. And if so, what's the debt guidance if we include Aludec with the new payout, of course?

Well, let's see that the guidance, as usual, are an organic guidance based on the companies we have as of 31st of December 2025. So, that doesn't include Aludec with regard to the guidance we've presented. As we said, the major cash generation allows us to take the net financial debt to EBITDA to 0.7x. So, we've been to provide a greater payout and includes -- raise dividend to 42% and 50%. If we bear in mind only the dividend, that EUR 0.7 becomes EUR 0.73, 0.74. So, absolutely nothing changes because the dividend in 2026 is paid out in '27 and the 2027 payout will be paid out in 2028 beyond this 2-year perimeter. And the matter of Aludec, the EUR 200 million, that you all know is EV for the company. With the high generation it gives us, it will be at level of close to 0.9 financial debt to EBITDA because we have to bear in mind the extremely high cash generation that CIE has. And as I always say, CIE almost tends to 0. Over a few years, we are practically without debt. So, carrying out integrations like Aludec that are going to make a very significant contribution. The net financial debt to EBITDA ratio, if there isn't a major acquisition, it's unlikely that it will be over 0.9 and certainly under 1, as I said.

Continuing with the guidance, we are asked about the CapEx guidance because there's nothing in the guidance on this.

Well, I think we've always said that at CIE, in order to grow with a medium to low outperformance, we need 5% of the CapEx. And this 5% coincides with the 5% in amortization. If we can sell and amortize the same amount and yet grow with that medium, low single digit, so we'll continue along the same lines.

We're asked about the geographic evolution and the EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter. Are there any extraordinary elements?

None at all. I think we just have to analyze the margins globally. And globally, they are the recurrent margins for our group. There's nothing to be drawn from it.

And connected to this, we are asked about depreciation and CapEx in the fourth quarter. It's been a bit higher in the fourth quarter, depreciation and CapEx in the fourth quarter.

Well, I said earlier, we have to bear in mind that 5% amortization, although in some months or some quarters, it's a little bit higher or lower depending on production. But we have to bear in mind the recurrency. And over the years, that 5%, which goes between 4.5%, which is the amortization of fixed assets and 5.5% in IFRS 6, this is what's constant and recurrent.

And completely changing the subject, we've seen significant one-offs in OEMs because of the investments in electric vehicles. Does this have a direct impact on CIE?

None. None. We don't have any impact on this year's accounts. CIE has a value of 2 or 3x the assets it has. So, there will be no impairment in that area for CIE in the coming years.

And a very specific question on recent news from Mexico, whether this has had any impact on our activity, the struggle against drug trafficking we've seen recently.

Well, you know that this started over the weekend on Sunday. And it's true that during the night shift where we started the week on Sunday, we weren't able to work. There was a kind of state of emergency in many places, but we did start to work normally on Monday morning. So it was just a shift, one shift. People were very nervous about what could happen, but the plants have been operating normally since Monday.

A question about China, which was a highly profitable business and the size is smaller now. Does it make strategic sense to continue in that market?

Well, yes, you've just said it. It's so profitable and it generates so much cash that we are going to continue. And I hope to give you good news this quarter because I know that you ask a lot of questions on the performance we've had in China, and we may turn things around this first quarter and give you the surprise of going from an underperformance to an overperformance. So, we still have full faith in China, and we have a fantastic team that we can't even think of doing without.

And then we have a question about M&A. How much gun powder do you think you have for M&A? And should we not consider relevant operations? In other words, how far could you go in leverage?

Well, the figures are very clear. As we always say, with our extremely high cash generation and the net financial debt to EBITDA situation, we could have up to EUR 2 billion and not exceed 2.5x net debt to EBITDA. These are our figures. So regarding the second question, obviously, we can undertake a major significant inorganic growth.

And coming back to the other question on M&A. Can we say anything about the growth and margins expected for the coming years, especially in 2026?

Well, the good thing about Aludec is that it does have a growth plan, a significant growth plan, especially in North America with diversification and in the medium term in Asia. And regarding margins, the margins are more or less in line with the CIE margins. And therefore, for the first time or one of the first times, an integration doesn't mean that CIE will have to drop 3 or 4 points in its margins. And that's why we say that it's a company that's going to help us to stay at the extremely high levels of profitability of our group and extremely high levels of cash generation.

And now we're asked about connecting with the call from CIE India the other day. Let's talk about taking production from Europe to India. Can you give us more color on that strategy beyond what was already said and can this be expanded to other regions?

There are hypes and our customers sometimes get nervous. And like 30 years ago, it seemed that everything was going to be produced in the East of Europe. And in the end, it all came to nothing. There are certain tensions. But in our case, since we're local everywhere, our risk is nil or extremely low, negligible, I would say, a nuance. The person asking the question, if you heard the conference call, we weren't talking about a massive transfer of production from Europe to India. We spoke about one-offs to make use of the production in India where we have high growth.

Okay. We are asked about the development of the RONA. How has that evolved?

Well, as you know, we closed the RONA, I think, at 20.6%. In other words, CIE, in its normal evolution that you see quarter-to-quarter with its historic records, it improves its RONA. After the acquisitions 5 or 6 years ago, the RONA dropped around 15% more or less. And in these 5 years during the strategic plan, we've improved it by 1 point per year. RONA of 20.6%. It means of all the assets we manage, we obtain 20%. And the assets are financed at a much lower cost than that. So the profitability for the shareholder is almost double that figure of 20%.

After the Mexico greenfield, is there any relevant greenfield planned?

There are countries where we constantly carry out greenfields, countries like India, where you know that M&As are very, very expensive, and we carry out small greenfields every year. And it's true that the most important greenfield we've done recently is the greenfield in Mexico, and we'll do another important greenfield in Mexico with a different technology. So it's the countries where there are the most opportunities like Brazil for doing greenfield. So, organic growth through greenfield and inorganic growth will always continue to be the way our group grows.

Our opinion on the Bloomberg consensus for 2026?

Well, that's a good question. A good question. Well, first of all, I know that you're all very, very, very optimistic about CIE, and we're grateful for that confidence you have in CIE. But I would like to highlight the kind of exchange and euro against other currencies. In 2025, we've lost EUR 150 million to EUR 146 million loss in sales because of the devaluation of all currencies against the euro. In the first quarter, based on the information we have for 2026, we're going to lose over EUR 60 million, I think you said, because of the exchange rate. So if we properly analyze the exchange rate, we will be in line with the figures we have in our head. And the differences have been based on an erring calculation of the exchange rate versus the euro.

Do you have any views on the remuneration of USMCA?

Well, it's early yet to anticipate the possible results of a possible renegotiation. Historically, this kind of process tends to be long and gradual. But in your case, USMCA is very well positioned. We operate in North America with a high local and regional content under the current treaty. We don't see a direct relevant impact on our operations right now, quite honestly. But as usual, we'll analyze the situation closely and adapt together with our customers if necessary. And about this and other sectoral issues and tariffs, these are things that we've talked about on many different occasions. But there has been nothing that has substantially affected CIE.

Changing the subject. Can we give some color on the European local content legislation? A lot have been said about it, but what is the actual situation?

Well, as you know, as usual, Europe reacts late, but in the end, it has to react. And regarding local content, I don't know if 70% or 80%, but that has to be the solution. What's obvious is that there's a very strong competitive industry in Europe and the European economic community will apply requirements. And it makes every sense to back the localization or internal production here within the community.

And a more philosophical question has just come in. Has anything changed specifically at CIE that explains the 17% rise in the stock market versus the auto sector?

It's very easy to answer this question. We have a strategic plan 2021-2025, where for 4 years, the share price hasn't gone up. It's almost gone down, but it hasn't gone up. And we've just closed with this rise in this year 2025. But what has happened during this period, 2021-2025, what's happened is that CIE has increased EBITDA by almost EUR 200 million. This by a multiple of 6 gives you a value of EUR 1.2 billion, and we've reduced the debt by almost EUR 500 million. So, we've generated a value of some EUR 1.7 billion. The growth in 2025 doesn't pick up even half of what we've actually done and achieved. So, we hope that from now on, it will pick this up as many analysts highlight and that this will bring us to values close to EUR 40. Now that we've exceeded EUR 30, analysts believe that CIE should be close to EUR 40. So, we have to continue with our improvements and believe that we'll get closer to that figure of EUR 40, which I think is where we should be.

Well, that was the last question.

Okay. Well, thank you very much. As usual, it's been a pleasure to give you a full transparent information on CIE. Continue to trust. We have a unique model, and the most efficient management in the sector worldwide. And obviously, with an outstanding team that is very ambitious and the desire to make this group much bigger, and we will continue to provide significant remuneration to our shareholders. Thank you all very much. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]