CIE Automotive, S.A. ($CIE)

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the first quarter results for CIE Automotive. I am Lorea Aristizabal, Director for Corporate Development. [Operator Instructions]. And now I'll hand over to Lorea. Go ahead, please. .

Good afternoon. Welcome to this conference call with the results for this first quarter 2026, a quarter that somehow confirms the disparity between markets with markets evolving at very different speeds. And with increasingly diverse dynamics in an environment where apart from all the above demand and production don't always evolve in a synchronized way as we'll see when we review what happened in each market. Starting with China, the Chinese market situation can be summarized under 2 concepts, normalization and competitive pressure. On the one hand, normalization. China has already shown a clear adjustment in demand with sales falling by around 20% in this first quarter compared to a more limited output fall of 10%. Demand adjustment that reflects some normalization. After the post COVID years have had very strong growth, an adjustment in demand that reflects a mature market with electrification levels close to 50% in both sales and production. And demand adjustment to which, without a doubt, the reduction of incentives for electric vehicles has had an effect, which was implemented at the end of 2025 in the context of reorientation of the Chinese government's industrial policy. And in 2026, it has stopped considering the automotive sector as one of its strategic priority sectors in terms of investment. We also mentioned the competitive pressure that competitive pressure and the price wars between manufacturers, which continues to be very, very intense. So the adjustment of the domestic demand, combined with this competitive pressure, means that a very significant part of the production, a growing share of production is shifting from domestic consumption towards exports to the world. Exports, which in 2025, represented 7 million units, more than 20% of the production. As you know, our exposure to China is not significant. Our share with local OEMs is limited, and this has led to an underperformance in the market where the Chinese OEM share has grown. But it's a limited share that responds to an approach aimed at preserving high levels of profitability in that market. And specifically, in this first quarter, as our CEO already mentioned at the results conference in February, in this quarter, we recorded an outperformance compared to the Chinese market by more than 2 points, reflecting a certain improvement in market share of several international OEMs during the quarter. We will have to look at the trend, and we'll have to monitor it. Moving to the North American market to the other side of the world, we find that production has stayed flat in this first quarter. If we focus on the U.S., we see a North American market -- sorry, I mean a U.S. market with also a flat production during the first quarter, a context where we have an increasingly demanding market with an inflation of around 3% and a rise in the monthly vehicle of financing rates which in this first quarter alone rose by almost 5% compared to the previous year and this is having an impact. To this, we must add the withdrawal of incentives of $7,500 a for electric vehicles as of September 2025. And all this explains the better evolution in hybrid sales in recent months showing double-digit growth in Q1 versus double-digit drops in the sale of electric vehicles. Moving to Mexico. It has also shown a flat evolution in production in this first quarter. It maintains its critical role as an automotive hub with the U.S. depending significantly on Mexico both because of costs and the geographic position in the context of a global supply chain configuration moving away from Asia, a trend that clearly benefits us and from which we hope to continue benefiting through our highly solid position in Mexico. As an additional context to the American market, next July 1 is the deadline to decide whether the current USMCA agreement is extended or renewed. The second option to the renewal seems to be the most likely. And in fact, certain negotiations are already underway and we'll have to see what happens. In this first quarter, our growth has been below the North American market for once with a contraction of about 2%. Brazil, moving on to Brazil, the headlines for Brazil, a strong demand and a recovery in production, a market that continues to show itself very strong with the sales growth close to 15% in the first quarter supported by domestic demand that's been favored by a slight reduction in rates and the production that is also growing, but is growing half as much as sales, it's grown 7% in the quarter. This divergence between sales and production depends on 2 main factors. On the one hand, the fact that sales reflect the growing importance of imports of Chinese cars to Brazil. In this first quarter, the imports grew by close to 70% year-on-year to up to 50,000 units, which represents 9% of total vehicle sales in the country. On the other hand, production, which, as we said, have grown less than sales, and that's because they've been affected by a fall of almost 20% in exports, especially to Argentina, Brazil's main foreign market. Argentina, besides still having a weak economy, also has an increasing penetration of Chinese manufacturers with imports from China growing more than 80% year-on-year. And this is reducing the demand for vehicles from Brazil. In Brazil, our position is based on a strong local presence on our capacity to deliver in a market where relationships are decisive in a market where, again, we have significantly beaten the market in this first quarter with 16 points of outperformance considering organic and inorganic growth. Talking about the India market, and we have to define the growth of this market we could say that it is a market with a structural and diversified growth. Passenger vehicle production in India continues to grow at a very strong pace in this quarter, approaching double digits with a figure of 9%. And this strength also access to the rest of the segments with production levels that have grown significantly. [indiscernible] over 20% and tractors over 30%, trucks over 25%. So an evolution that confirms, as we said, sustained growth with support in different segments and with a very favorable outlook in the medium term. Our strategy and our great advantage in India is based on the technology transfer we have already carried out, diversification combining a differential technological capabilities, deployment of virtually all our technological production and a diversified and healthy exposure, both in segments and clients. All this is reflected in the first quarter where we have significantly beaten the Indian market with an outperformance close to 14 points. Moving on to Europe, where sales have remained practically flat and production, which fell slightly by 1% in the quarter. And this again reflects that part of the demand is directed at imported cars with Chinese OEMs reaching a market share of almost 11% in Q1 sales higher than the 8% they reached in 2025 as a whole. In the European market, electrification has already accounted for 30% of the mix in the whole of Q1, half pure electric vehicles and half hybrid vehicles and this electrification is driven by regulation and by the growing offer of more competitive prices for models, both from Chinese OEMs and from European and international OEMs. How do we feel in Europe? We feel that we are in a good position with an advantage that we could say is twofold. On the 1 hand, we have a multi-technology position which allows us to supply components for combustion vehicles, for hybrid vehicles and for electric vehicles. And this addition to our portfolio has occurred gradually and in line with the evolution of our customers' demands. And on the other hand, and this is very important, we have a solid financial position in an especially challenging European environment. In Europe, profitability continues to be the main pressure point with roughly 75% of the suppliers operating below 5% EBIT according to ClipperData, the European Association of suppliers. In view of this, our financial strength gives us a differential position in this sector and allow us to organically consolidate market share through new projects assigned to us by our customers that require investment. The outperformance over the European market in this quarter has been 16 points with about half of that growth derived from the integration of [indiscernible]. With everything I've said about the different markets in the different geographies, this points to a market that grew by 1.3% in the first quarter, while CAE has grown by 10.4% at constant currency, with half of this growth approximately being organic and the other half inorganic. And this, in total, implies an outperformance of 9 points. A growth that has also been accompanied by excellent margins with a consolidated EBITDA margin that for the first time, has exceeded 19%, reached 19.1% and the consolidated EBIT margin that remained above 14%. Different dynamics depending on the geography, but a very well balanced profitability by regions, which gives greater strength and recurrence to the group's global margins. In absolute terms, we have a P&L for the first quarter over EUR 1 billion in sales with a quarterly EBITDA, which for the first time has reached EUR 200 million, an EBIT of EUR 152 million and a net result of EUR 96 million, the highest quarterly profit to date. Figures, which, as our CEO said at the shareholders meeting today would have been significantly higher without the negative impact of the sharp depreciation of our currencies, a very negative impact. Sales were almost 7% lower due to that effect, EUR 60 million less and EBITDA with an impact of EUR 12 million and an impact of EUR 6 million less on the net result. But as we always stress, excellent figures in the earnings account, but they would lose all their relevance. If we did not prove that they become cash quarter after quarter. And in this sense, saying that in the first quarter, we exceeded a 70% conversion rate of EBITDA to operating cash flow with an operating cash generation that reached EUR 136 million and which enables us to maintain a very stable and controlled level of borrowing, while financing growth, investment and shareholder remuneration growth, having completed the acquisition of allude with an enterprise value of EUR 200 million, investment that continues with EUR 60 million in maintenance and expansion CapEx in the quarter and with remuneration to the shareholder having paid more than EUR 60 million between the 2025 interim dividend and other minority dividends. All in all, our net debt, which, as I said, is stable and under control of about EUR 1.040 billion, which implies a leverage ratio of 1.3x net financial debt over EBITDA and which is equivalent to 1.1x pro forma debt without inorganic operations. We are nearing the end of the conference. There is little else to say, but I would like to close with 5 key messages that I think summarize the quarter. A significant outperformance over the market at 9 points, demonstrating our ability to deliver in a very demanding environment. We have maintained our excellent levels of profitability that is balanced on a global and local level. We have generated a lot of operating cash, which is allowing us to support customers with new investments for growth while expanding our perimeter and increasingly remunerating our shareholders. So all in all, first quarter, very much in line with our guidance for 2026-'27, guidance that we reconfirmed today and which defines a clear road map for the next 2 years, growing above the market, maintaining excellence in profitability and continuing to strengthen our financial position while we consolidate the sector and increase dividends. I'm not going to go on any longer. So we will now open the Q&A. Thank you very much for your attention, and I'm at your disposal.

Let me start with the questions. Starting with the sales line, the outperformance and so on. First of all, do we have a breakdown of inorganic by geographies for the first quarter? And what should we expect for the whole of 2026.

Well, as we said, the growth in constant currency for the quarter has been 10% approximately. Half of that is organic. The other half is inorganic. And that inorganic growth by geographies of that inorganic growth, approximately 1/3 comes from Brazil from the acquisitions last year of Entercom and Tecnicas and the other 2/3 come from the latest acquisition, [indiscernible], and which, as you know, is essentially Europe. And there was a second part of the question, what do we expect for the rest of the year? Will the annualization of that inorganic growth while understanding that at [indiscernible], it came in into the -- in the second quarter take past in the third [indiscernible] came in, in this first quarter. So whatever that adds up to. Regarding the Chinese implementations in Europe. Could see, i.e., work with these OEMs bearing in mind the cultural differences and the use of their own suppliers abroad. Well, the answer has to be yes. Obviously, yes. They are different from a cultural point of view, without a doubt. So with the Japanese OEMs and the Korean OEMs and to bring it closer the Indian OEMs like Mahindra or Tata with whom we work with no problem at all. I think that the decentralization of CIE and the CIE model of empowering and managing locally with local teams means that the culture is close. In the case of India, as I said, to Mahindra or Tata, we work with OEMs from different nationalities and different cultures. And we have a strong relationship everywhere. I don't see a major cultural problem in working with the Chinese and the fact that they take suppliers to the rest of the world, I think we shouldn't rush in our opinion. I think we still have to monitor how the Chinese OEM deployment is going to happen in the world. There are currently some Chinese suppliers around the world, but it's not a massive deployment. We'll have to analyze the profile of Chinese suppliers in China and whether they have the cultural profile, the international profile, the financial profile and the financial muscle that internationalization requires. So we'll have to monitor all that and see. There will be some for sure. There are also Korean and Japanese suppliers, but the rest of us are all still here. In the case of China, could you explain the change in our underperformance and the possibilities of consolidating in the future. Well, we've had an outperformance, but it's just a quarter. I said it and I said again, we're going to monitor the trend. It's true that analyzing the Chinese domestic market this quarter has been interesting. It's been interesting because we've seen changes in the trend. -- but a quarter is not enough to know whether this is going to be a structural change in the trend or whether it's just 1 quarter and then things change. What do I mean? Well, for example, if we look at the sales and market share for Chinese OEMs, for the first time in a long time, we've seen drops double-digit drops in domestic sale going from 12% last year to a share of 9% this year for or we have a Gilly that has maintained market share or cherry that's also fighting to keep it 3% market share. And on the other hand, we have figures from this first quarter from international OEMs, where we see slight positive changes. The Volkswagen Group has gone from 8% to 9%. Mercedes stays at around 2%, but only goes over 2%. We've seen Toyota, Nissan under also growing 1 point in their market share compared to last year. And by all this, I mean, that we're seeing changes in the market shares of the various Chinese and international OEMs in the first quarter of 2 and this has had an effect on our relationship with the market. But I think that a quarter is not enough to determine whether this is structural or not but it's a very interesting subject to monitor over the coming quarters. In the case of Brazil, why has been such a positive evolution this quarter, both in sales and margins? What is the key to your success in this market? Well, we like Brazil very much. And I know it's surprising because our latest organic operation have been over there, and we're growing a great deal both organically and inorganically and perhaps the question is based on the fact that not many international players can make money or a lot of money in Brazil. Keys to our success. Whether it's a market that has fluctuations in demand, that means you have to be agile. It's a market with a diversification in customer segments and products that you need to know how to handle a lot of bureaucracy with a lot of tax complexities where you need a lot of support to survive in the Brazilian fiscal world. The constant friction with the customer to pass on high inflation rates. It's a market that has been closed for a long time with tariffs on imports. It's an [indiscernible] market. It's a very unique market. Like in the rest of CIE, we have a local management team that's doing an outstanding job, both in organic growth and in relationship with customers as well as in the inorganic integrations. And I suppose it's a little bit of all this plus a spectacular management team is the key to our success that you were asking about.

The growth in India of some peers is much stronger with an increase in margins. Perhaps will there be a change in strategy there focus more on sales?

Well, I don't know who they mean? Those peers that are growing so much. I think that having 14% of outperformance over the market is growth, 14 points of outperformance in a growing market I think is a considerable outperformance. And I think it shows that we're doing a good job. And it's purely organic, by the way. I think it shows that we're doing a good job. A change in strategy, where we don't like to copy other people's strategies. I think that each player has their own technology strategy or diversification, customer and segment strategies all the way. They focus on growth. In recent years that we've been very much focused on organic growth and investments in greenfields that we're getting a return from now. And we've supported our customers in making the market growth. And again, with 14 points outperformance in the quarter saying that others grow more, I don't know who they mean. But I don't think we need to make the comparison. I think that we have a spectacular absolute and relative growth.

There's a question on the underperformance in North America. Can we add a little color?

Well, as in the case of China, when we had an outperformance and we said that a quarter -- one quarter doesn't create the trend and the same goes for the U.S. because it is just 1 quarter. In the last 5 years, we've seen some underperformance in America and Europe, but it's not that important. We should follow the trend.

And how do you see Q2?

How do we see Q2? Without major shocks so far, and I say so far, we have to make a disclaimer because the world can change tomorrow if Mr. Trump wakes up and says something different. But what we have right now on the table, I would say that a solid second quarter with good margins, nothing disruptive.

What is the impact of the Iran wall on CIE? Perhaps that's what was behind the question. Maybe that was what we in the question, whether we -- yes, there's another question. Will this affect your guidance?

Well, the Iran war. So far, we don't have an impact on a breakage of the supply chain or lack of supply. There is nothing new in this area. Are there price increases? Well, yes, of course, all over the world. But what do we need to do here? Open negotiations with the customers to try to make a pass-through, as Jesus Maria said during the shareholders' meeting. We're slightly increasing our safety stocks in certain areas that concern us a little more. We're also developing new suppliers in some areas and a plan B. So what are we doing? We're managing the situation of uncertainty. That's what everyone is doing. A situation that hasn't had an impact on the first quarter, and we don't expect a significant impact in the CIE consolidated results in the second quarter. If the situation persists, and we have oil at $130 for 3 years, it will be a different story. There's an uncertain situation, which is what we have today, and we don't have a crystal ball. But I think that there will be a second quarter without a significant impact.

And moving on to something else. The EUR 263 million in financial debt connected to the purchasing of [indiscernible] with EUR 200 million in enterprise value. Could we explain that a little bit.

There's not much to explain these adjustments in prices, EUR 173 million. What we present is the variation in net financial date. So EUR 163 million is the impact on net financial debt.

About [indiscernible], how is the integration going? And how do we expect it to go during the rest of the year? And is there a possibility of cross-selling with other geographies?

Well, it's going very well. It's a spectacular management team with a marvelous track record. And that's one of the great things about [indiscernible], having integrated a team of those characteristics is a very good fortune for CIE and there's a great integration with the rest of the organization. You know that for us, [indiscernible] has meant to setting up our eighth division, the branding division, a division which we expect to expand geographically because right now, it's highly concentrated in Europe, and let's just put a foot in North America, and we expect to grow those North American branding operations. And who knows with the dream of perhaps setting up a world division, expanding it to Asia in the future. Well, I'm getting ahead of myself, but without dreams, you can't reach your ambitions. And what do we expect? Well, we've integrated a company with a management team that are obtaining an excellent performance, and we expect to maintain it and live up to the support that this division needs.

And we're asked about M&A in general. How is it going? They say there has been a lot of activity in the sector from the peers. How is it going?

Well, working very hard on M&A with a lot of operations being analyzed. It's a pity we can't tell you anything about it. Then there are operations open, especially in markets, which, as you know, are more strategic for us because of the growth prospects or the position of those markets in the future of automation. And I'm talking about India or going through Mexico or Brazil. India specifically, there's been a lot of M&A, yes, India is an active market in M&A. There's a small problem, which are the extremely high valuations, which in many cases, we don't feel justified. Something we've often said is that in the past, we've used our listed subsidiary in India for the partial payment of some acquisitions and we may also do it in the future. The fact that we have rounded off M&A in India doesn't mean we're not growing in India. But in recent years, we've been more focused on inorganic growth, but we'd be happy if we could carry out inorganic operations over there, too.

And looking at other areas, going back to the North American market. The first question is, are there relevant implementations in the market associated to Trump's tariffs. There's been some news on moves made by some OEMs. How can that be contextualized.

Well, I'm going to answer with objective data, and I'm going to try not to give a subjective answer. We've been monitoring the production forecast in North America in the United States for the coming years. Since before Trump's election, when Trump came into power over a year ago until today. And we've had 1.5 years with all the tariff and protectionist policies with the aim of attracting more volume to the United States. But the objective reality is that we see production forecast in the United States for the coming years. That aren't shifting. So we're not seeing the the U.S. President Trump's policies are being passed on to a forecast of higher production in the country. That's the objective data and what we see in the IHS forecast, it's true that we're reading certain announcements about increases in capacity from various OEMs. But it's also true that in most cases, there are announcements of investments to be made in the coming years. Perhaps IHS isn't including those volumes. I couldn't say. But the effect of the forecast is that before and 1.5 years after Trump, the production forecast in the United States are not changing.

And the other question about North America, the USMCA, is there anything new?

Well, we don't have a crystal ball, but everything makes us think that the agreement is going to be renegotiated. With Trump during his first mandate, the old NAFTA was renegotiated and became the current USMCA and we have the feeling that Trump is going to force a renegotiation of USMCA 2.0 to try to close it for the end of this year. The USMCA was 6 years, which, in theory, ends at the end of this year. And what might happen? Well, it's being said -- it's just being said that there could be some adjustments in the tariffs for USMCA vehicles. We'll have to see whether the United States manages to bring in something they want to include which are limitations to Chinese content in the vehicles. It's complicated to control that, but they want to try it. The limit to labor costs, which is $16 in USMCA, whether that increased that or not or the minimum local content, will it rise over 70%? We don't know. And these are some small changes that might happen. We say small because we can't forget and I suppose you can't forget either all the noise and all the headlines brought about by the NAFTA renegotiation in the current USMCA. And in the end, it's true there were changes, but they were small changes, and it was not terribly disruptive. So perhaps we have to think about a similar scenario, a lot of noise, a lot of headlines. And then just small adjustments to the current U.S. MCA, hopefully. That's the probable and desirable scenario.

And that was the last question.

Well, thank you all very much for your questions, for your attention. But you know that -- we're here if you've overlooked anything and need further information. Thank you very much.