Elmos Semiconductor SE (ELG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Elmos Semiconductor SE Analyst Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Dr. Arne Schneider, CEO.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our virtual Analyst Conference and Earnings Webcast for the fiscal year 2025. This earnings call marks the first part of an exciting day dedicated to you, our investors and analysts. This morning, I will walk you through the key highlights and our preliminary financial results for 2025 and share our positive outlook for 2026. Together with my colleagues from the Elmos Executive Committee, we will then outline the next phase of our growth and strategic agenda at our virtual Capital Markets Day, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET today. We have prepared an exciting program for you this afternoon. So if you do not have yet registered for the CMD, please send a short e-mail to [email protected], so [email protected] and our IR team will provide you with the details. Let us begin with the highlights of the fiscal year 2025. Of course, as always, we will open the line for your questions at the end of my presentation. Since our foundation in 1984 in Dortmund, Elmos has evolved from a small start-up into a global leader in automotive mixed-signal semiconductors. Our ICs measure, control and enable electronic intelligence at the edge of the vehicle. They power key automotive megatrends electrification, ADAS and autonomous driving, safety, comfort and software-defined vehicles. In short, Elmos makes mobility safer, smarter, more comfortable and more sustainable. As a focused fabless analog mixed-signal specialist, we hold leading positions in all of our core application fields. And we continuously deliver next-generation ICs that create measurable value for our customers. On average, around 10 Elmos ICs were installed in every new car produced worldwide in 2025 and a significantly higher content up to 200 ICs is possible in premium modern EV platforms. More than 90% of our revenues are generated in the automotive market. This is our core DNA. We have sourced numerous attractive design wins that will drive future demand for our innovative ICs solutions. But at the same time, our technology goes beyond automotive. Many of our proven automotive applications are being redesigned and adapted for high-growth adjacent markets, such as smart home, smart factories and particularly robotics. In other words, automotive, is our core and proven growth platform. [indiscernible] semiconductor intelligence in new technologies is an additional growth opportunity. With more than 1,100 employees across 20 locations worldwide, including almost 500 R&D engineers, we combine deep customer intimacy with global scale. We serve the world's leading Tier 1 suppliers. Around 60% of our sales are generated in Asia, reflecting the center of gravity of global automotive production. Our chips are designed into vehicles and platforms across all major OEMs in Europe, in America, in Japan, Korea and China and also, of course, in emerging markets like India. In fact, our OEM footprint closely mirrors the global automotive market itself. Let me give you a snapshot of our innovative product portfolio, a preview of the technologies that are driving our growth and that we will present in much greater detail at our Capital Markets Day this afternoon. Again, let me do a little advertisement, right to our IR staff or look on the website, and it will be a great thing this afternoon. So semiconductors are not just components. They are the intelligent layer of a modern vehicle, and this is exactly where Elmos operates. At the intelligent edge of the vehicle architecture, the point where real-time data is generated, processed and translated into safe, reliable and high-performance functionality. Our ultrasonic ICs enable precise 360-degree environmental mapping around the vehicle, a fundamental building block of the sensor fusion for assisted and autonomous driving. Our next Ultrasonic IC generation has integrated AI capability and can detect objects as close as 7 centimeters, differentiate heights and significantly enhance the quality and performance for modern ADAS systems. Lighting is another example of how semiconductors redefined vehicle experience. Ambient lighting has evolved from a premium feature into a brand-defining design element across all segments. Our LED driver ICs enable dynamic multipixel front grills, illuminated services and intelligent interior life concepts that transform cars into emotional spaces. Electrification is accelerating this transition even further. Modern EV platforms rely on dozens of intelligence, actuators, pumps, valves and thermal management system, all powered by small electric motors, which are, of course, controlled by integrated mixed-signal ICs. Efficient battery conditioning, optimized range and advanced comfort features are impossible without semiconductor intelligence. In many of these motor control and thermal applications, Elmos already holds leading market position. And at the same time, we are driving the next-generation botnet architectures with eFuses and gateway IC drivers. These applications are intelligent system solutions for software-defined vehicle. Elmos sensor signal ICs are the bridge between the real world and the digital brain of the car. Fast, robust and safe sensor data from the edge is, of course, crucial for modern vehicles. Without the intelligence on the edge, there is no need for central compute. You can drive autonomously or have an efficient electrical drivetrain. With more than 4 decades of expertise, a powerful innovation road map and a global R&D organization, Elmos is ideally positioned to capture the structural trend for more semiconductor content per vehicle. Let us also have a brief look at some economic market and strategic highlights of 2025. According to the latest IMF estimate, global economic output is expected to have grown by 3.3% in 2025. Growth remains uneven. Europe is forecasted at 1.4% with Germany at just 0.2%, the U.S. at 2.1%, while China continues to expand at a robust 5%. In automotive production, S&P projects global light vehicle output to increase by 4% to around 93 million vehicles in 2025. A significant improvement since early last year when SAP forecasted a decline at that time. Growth will continue to be regionally different. China is expected to grow by a very strong 10%, reinforcing its leading position in the global automotive market. Due to the weaker automotive industry and the U.S. tariffs, Europe and North America are forecasted slightly below last year's level. Just a short comment, by the way, on the U.S. tariffs. So there is currently no direct impact on Elmos from the U.S. tariff regime on semiconductors as our ICs are not subject to it. But even in a scenario, and I haven't looked now for 20 minutes on how the tariff might have changed in the last 20 minutes. So maybe I'm not up to date. So even in the scenario where we have tariffs on our analog mixed signal chips, the direct exposure would be very limited as we have only 2% of our products shipped directly to the U.S. So returning to the automotive semis market. The destocking activities have almost completely ended. Inventory levels have normalized and are from our perspective, even too low in some parts. Customers are gradually returning to normal order levels that better reflect underlying structural demand. Currently, we do not see and therefore, we do not forecast the noticeable restocking by our customers. However, the headwind of destocking estimates with around 6 negative percentage points in growth is gone. That said, some customers continue to order below the normal lead time which keeps short-term visibility somewhat limited. But also in terms of the short-term ordering behavior, I feel there is some improvement, gradual improvement but improvement to be seen. The structural picture remains bright and very promising. Semiconductor content per vehicle continues to rise significantly, driven by electrification, higher ADAS levels, autonomous driving and the shift to software-defined vehicles. So let me now highlight some key strategic milestones. 2025 was the first year of Elmos as a fabless company after the wafer fab transaction was closed end of 2024. This marked the completion of our structural transition and the benefits of the fabless model are now clearly visible. We successfully completed our SAP transformation to S/4HANA, including the hypercare phase. This major operational achievement and a critical foundation for scalability, transparency and efficiency. We also achieved the second highest level of new design wins in our history with promising wins across all segments and regions. This is a strong indicator of future revenue growth and highlights the competitiveness and attractiveness of our innovative product portfolio. Our OEE optimization and test time reduction programs delivered very positive results, directly contributing to a substantial capacity increase and corresponding lower CapEx intensity going forward. And we have successfully executed our labor and material cost optimization initiatives introduced at the beginning of last year. The savings strengthen our cost base and improve operational leverage. And as all of you know, already as of January 1, 2025, we have relocated the registered office of Elmos Semiconductor SE from Dortmund to Leverkusen in order to reduce our tax book. In China, we are building a full function entity with an increasingly localized value chain. This strengthens customer proximity enhances resilience and create strategic optionality in its changing geopolitical environment. And finally, our ESG performance continues to gain recognition. We achieved ISS Prime status with a C+ rating and the management level B rating from CDP. For us, a clear confirmation that sustainability and governance are embedded in how we operate. So in summary, the macro environment remains mixed, and geopolitics are challenging. The destocking headwind from the last 2 years is gone, that's very good, and we are returning to structural growth in 2026. We made great progress in our strategic agenda, further strengthening our global position and competitiveness. So let me now present the key financial highlights of 2025 shown on Pages 5 to 8 of the presentation. As expected, sales in Q4 reached EUR 169.3 million, an absolute record level, 20% higher sequentially and 16% higher year-on-year. Q4 sales were impacted by around EUR 10 million by the postponement from Q3. However, even if we adjust that Q4 sales we would have reached a new quarterly record with then around EUR 160 million or 10% year-on-year growth. The Elmos Group generated revenue of EUR 582.6 million in fiscal year 2025, representing a new record level also and a slight increase compared to the previous year. While the market environment, especially in the first half was characterized by subdued orders from customers, order patterns increasingly normalized over the course of the year, reflecting underlying structural demand. Sales were also impacted by currency effects. Actually, on a currency-adjusted basis, group revenue would have increased by 2.5% year-on-year. Our sales development outperformed our direct peers, who on average reported an 8% decline in 2025. Over the past 2 years combined, we have outgrown our direct peers by nearly 20 percentage points. For us, this is clear evidence of the strong and sustained demand for our products. And if you look at the past 5 years, from 2021 to '25, Elmos has increased its top line by more than 80%, while our direct peers achieved average growth of only 11%. The gross margin in fiscal year 2025 reached 42.3%, more or less on the level expected. Gross profit throughout the year was impacted by fixed cost effects and higher material costs, including higher gold prices in assembly. We could compensate some of the cost increases with positive effects of our cost optimization program launched at the beginning of the year. The full year impact is expected in the course of 2026. Full year EBIT reached EUR 127.1 million or 21.8% of sales, in line with our guidance. In addition to the lower gross profit, EBIT was impacted by special costs for the SAP transfer, consulting costs for the expanded China strategy and negative FX effects. Again, despite the somewhat lower profitability versus the operational EBIT of the fiscal year 2024, so operational meaning, excluding the special gain of the sales of the wafer fab, our EBIT margin reduction of 3.3 percentage points was much lower than the profitability decline of our peers who lost on average 6.6 points. I think again a true statement of our resilient operating model. Also, no one wants to do another SAP transfer again, at least not anytime soon. The China setup is more or less done, and we are working on the gold issue. And with growth and less scale, comps margin expansion as we will see this year. The structural CapEx reduction is a result of our successful program to boost operational efficiency and to lower test types. The lower investment intensity is clearly visible in 2025. CapEx in the fiscal year 2025 totaled EUR 33.6 million or only 5.8% of sales and came in at the lower end of our guidance. Excluding the acquisition of a building at our Dortmund campus investments would have been even lower at 4.7% sales. With EUR 62.3 million R&D expenses were slightly higher than previous year due to higher personnel costs, lower capitalized development costs and lower R&D grants, partially compensated by strong improvements in our R&D efficiency. In 2025, we have further expanded our R&D network with the opening of a brand-new China product center in Shanghai and our new R&D site in Brno in the Czech Republic. As promised, we have started to build a track record of strong cash generation. Our focus on sustainable cash generation through consequent execution of efficiency and optimization measures to reduce capital expenditures and working capital and supported by a lower tax burden is delivering, I think, quite impressive results. The adjusted free cash flow totaled EUR 66.3 million in 2025. This is an increase of almost EUR 120 million versus the operating adjusted free cash flow of the previous year. The free cash flow margin of 11.4% of sales is clearly exceeding our original expectations. Based on the positive business performance and the substantially improved free cash flow, Elmos has further refined its capital allocation strategy. The management and the Supervisory Board will propose to the AGM a 50% increase in the dividend for the fiscal year 2025, from EUR 1 previously to EUR 1.50 per share. In addition, Elmos has launched a share buyback program by the stock exchange with a volume of EUR 10 million starting today until March 31. Ladies and gentlemen, let me finish my presentation with the market outlook and our guidance for the fiscal year 2026. S&P increased its latest global production forecast to 92.9 million new vehicles in 2025, up 3.3 million vehicles or plus 4% versus 2024. Production volumes are expected to stay at this higher level of more than 92 million cars in '26. The outlook remains shaped by Three key topics. U.S. trade and tariff policies, pretty volatile element, I think, the domestic development and export ambitions of the Chinese automotive industry and evolving demand for battery electric vehicles, particularly in Europe and North America. So, at the end of my presentation, we are on Page 11 now. I would like to present our outlook for 2026. We are optimistic for the new year and expect to return to our structural growth level after 2 years of destocking headwinds. In addition, we expect a higher profitability and a further increase of free cash flow. For the current fiscal year 2026, Elmos expects sales growth of 11% plus or minus 3 points. And based on this positive revenue outlook and further optimization measures, Elmos expects an EBIT margin above the previous year's level of 24%, plus or minus 2 points. Despite the anticipated growth, capital expenditures will remain at a comparatively lower level amounting to approximately 5% of sales. And in addition, Elmos expect positive cash development to continue and forecast an adjusted free cash flow of more than 70% of sales. Ladies and gentlemen, in 2025, Elmos once again demonstrated its resilience and its operational strength, significantly outperforming its direct competitors. As an agile fabless company with innovative products, substantially improved cash generation and an attractive capital allocation framework, Elmos exceptionally well positioned to benefit from the structural growth trends in our markets and to continue driving sustainable value creation. So we've come to the end of my presentation, I would like to ask the host to open the line for questions now. Thank you very much for your attention.

[Operator Instructions] The first question from Malte Schaumann from Warburg Research.

The question is on the gross margin that appear to be a bit on the low side in the fourth quarter with just 41.4%. Is that relating to the surge in gold prices? Or did you encounter some other facts that impacted the margin?

Yes. I wouldn't look too much on the Q4, but rather on the whole year. And of course, the whole year is below what we had originally. On the other hand, if you look at the gold price development, which took away a point or 2. Then if you adjust for that, the structural level is not too bad and with optimizations coming, we don't have a bad feeling on structural profitability.

Okay. So nothing that worries you in the end. And then going into '26, can you confirm that the gold issue should not worsen in comparison to '25 and then -- but just a full relief from that then going into '27?

Yes. I mean, Gold, 3 main things will happen. And yes, Mr. Schaumann, you're right, the overall situation will not worsen this year. So first, we use less gold since our first gold-to-copper projects are coming into play then. So this is the first effect we use less gold. For the remaining goals we use, the prices have versus the average of 2025 are up. I believe the average was around [ EUR 3,500 ]. Now we're beyond [ EUR 5,000 ]. So the first is, of course, a positive fact. The second is a negative effect. And the third is that we charge gold adders now, which is, of course, also a positive effect. And on balance, we have this thing now under control.

Okay. How much of the portfolio is already -- has already transferred to copper?

All the new things are copper, anyway and as a standard. It's only old product that still run on gold. And when gold was at a more reasonable price level, we kind of shied away from transferring it because it does make effort and it also creates effort on our customer sites to requalify things and everything. But at this gold price level that we are seeing now the effort is more than justified. So that is why we kind of reacted to this gold price and now just have to take the effort on transferring even old products to copper that may only run for a few years. But still it's worthwhile at these gold prices.

Yes. Okay. And then finally, quickly on the design wins. Maybe a quick comment on how you would rate the year and maybe get some more insight on that this afternoon. So yes, I'll leave it up to you.

Yes. I mean last year was a very good year. And yes, this afternoon, we'll have -- I believe some of the charts -- that some of you in the call have been waiting for and pushing us for so long. We will share this afternoon. So I can't share now because if I share everything kind of it's a big spoiler and no one comes this afternoon. But please do join it. It was an excellent design win in 2025. I mean for 2026, what should I say? We had a good few weeks. So we are very happy, but of course, too early to be clear on what 2026 brings.

There are no further questions, back to Dr. Schneider.

Yes, don't worry. There's enough room to ask questions at our CMD, and I promise this is the last advertisement for this call. But I still would like to remind you that we host our virtual Capital Markets Day this afternoon at 2:30 CET. So many of you, of course, have already registered, but write an e-mail to [email protected], and the IR team will quickly send you all the registration details. It's going to be a great event, and we have an exciting program. So don't miss it. For now, thank you very much for your participation and your interest in Elmos. Goodbye from Leverkusen. Take care, stay confident and see you this afternoon at our CMD.