Emerson Electric Co. ($EMR)

So we're going to move on with Emerson and Ram Krishnan, who -- what do you now? Like you're always something important. What's your?

COO.

COO now. And Ram and I have known each other for a long time. And the St. Patrick's Day, I thought maybe we could toast to St. Patrick's. Anyway, there's a maybe one afterwards. Totally forgot St. Patrick's day. I felt like that last night. So thanks for joining us. I know you guys have a lot of global exposure. There's a lot going on in the world. Maybe just a bit of an update on what you're seeing in the Middle East and how it impacts your business or anything else that's going on globally that we should be aware of?

Yes. I mean, obviously, the last 2.5 weeks, to say interesting, I guess that's an understatement. But Middle East, I mean, it's an important region for us, 9% of our sales across Middle East and Africa. Middle East alone is about 7%, large presence in Saudi, in the UAE and Qatar. For us, the real focus right now has been -- we have 1,500 people in the region. So the safety of our people, certainly operational continuity to take care of our customers. We have service people deployed to our customers. And I will say we've done a very good job making sure our people remain safe, and we're working to take care of our customers. Certainly, logistics remain challenging to bring material into the region. We were down about a week in Dubai, the first week, but we're up and running in Dubai. Our Saudi operation continues to execute for the quarter. So at this point, where we sit is, I mean, if the situation resolves in the next several weeks, I think the impact to the year is something very manageable. But right now, our focus remains on delivering on the quarter, but most importantly, the safety of our employees and continuing to take care of our customers and finding the right logistical solutions, if this remains and continues for a period of time, then we're looking at alternate avenues and making sure we can bring material in and keeping our plants running in the region.

It's maybe kind of like a moderate impact this quarter because of a few weeks, but if it ends quickly, it kind of comes out in the wash and you still feel comfortable for the year. Is that the right way to interpret?

At this point, that's really the way we're looking at it.

Okay. Is there any -- how do you see kind of the flip side of that with if oil stays higher for longer, how does it play through to your business in the rest of the world?

Yes. I mean that's an interesting question, an important question. Now in the region, obviously, the net positive will be when the region does come back, there will be pent-up demand. So I think there'll be a net positive in the region. But however, the scenario you painted of higher oil prices or higher gas prices, what does it do to Europe or China, that's a tougher one to model. At this point, our expectation is all of those are transitionary. They resolve and we get back to business as usual as we get into the second half of this year.

And so far this quarter pre -- what happened in the Middle East, what -- how was business as usual? How did it feel, how do things feel?

All of the positives in Q1 continued. In Q1, obviously, orders were up 9%. North America was up 18%. India was strong, up 20-plus percent. Rest of Asia was up 13%. We had strong activity in the Middle East. Our T&M business was up 20%. Our power business was up 17-plus percent on sales, 30% on orders. Ovation was up 74%. So all those elements continued into the second quarter. Certainly, T&M is on a recovery path, and we'll, I'm sure, talk more about it. Those continue. Obviously, the dynamic around the Middle East in the last 2.5 weeks, though I would say orders continue to come in. It's really how we can execute in our plants and logistics is what we're spending time on, but orders have continued to come in, in the region.

And any kind of preordering or people coming in, trying to get orders in before certain things happen or pretty consistent pace, but pretty solid pace. What about the businesses that aren't growing? Anything -- anything there? Is it still pretty stable and sluggish? I mean Rockwell was just here, talked about their large project pipeline, quotation activity being good, but not a lot of release on a lot of that stuff outside of your growth areas, you guys don't quite overlap in the growth areas.

Yes. I mean our project business, I mean, the project pipeline, $11 billion, almost $6.4 billion in these growth verticals of life sciences, aerospace and defense, semi, LNG and power, all continue to move at the right pace and the right momentum. Our MRO business stays strong at mid-single digits. The geographic concerns we pointed out and we modeled into the year, which is a weak Europe and a weak China, no signs of significant improvement in both those vectors, I would say. I think Europe, primarily driven by automotive, factory automation, export into China, for example, is soft. And China continues to be soft. Now we see pockets of activity. For example, China is a $1.8 billion business. We have a nice power business in China. We have a $250 million test and measurement business, which is up 35%. Power is up nicely in China. Exports is up. But 40% of our China sales is in the chemical markets, and those continue to remain depressed as do the chemical markets in Western Europe. So still China and Europe watching carefully, but strength in North America, Middle East, India, test and measurement continue.

And as far as these orders you're seeing in power, I think you said the one -- it's kind of like a 2-year lead time from where you see those orders. So they should be really translating in '27 and '28. Is that the right way to think about the Ovation orders?

Correct.

Second half of '26.

And into '27 and '28.

From a revenue perspective.

From a revenue perspective.

And then how about life sciences and LNG? Similarly, pretty strong. What's the timing on the revenue conversion of those out?

Similar profile. I think on the LNG side, I think there's still runway on orders. I mean this wave of LNG, 585 MTPA of capacity in theory, 130 MTPA has already been put in place, 140 MTPA under construction, and then there's a significant amount, 315 MTPA that's still yet to be awarded. Now what we will see, and we have seen in the last couple of weeks is a lot of FIDs in the U.S. going through. Certainly, it's an opportunity for more LNG capacity coming online in the U.S. and exporting out to compensate for any LNG shortage in Qatar or in the Middle East in general. So we expect that to continue. And Life Sciences, primarily driven by 2 vectors. One is the GLP-1 capacity that's being put in place in the U.S. and then the continued investment in biologics, which is the advanced therapeutic medicinal products continue. So we see good momentum in both those end markets for us.

So the LNG side, you are seeing like an incremental reaction to what's happening globally? Or were those already things that were -- they must have been like really close to the...

Arguably, they were things that were really -- But we just got it in 2 weeks, so I thought I'd mention in the last couple of weeks. I don't think it had anything to do with them at least. They would have gone ahead anyway.

On the T&M side, growth there has obviously been strong, but very easy comps. You're now kind of getting into tougher comps. What should we think about like the T&M kind of order growth rate going forward? Is that going to be more normalized? Or is that still aero and semis like still picking up really nicely? And what are you seeing in the more distribution-related business there?

Yes. I think aero and semis are going to be the strongest by far. I think they were -- both were close to 30% in the 20% orders growth we delivered in Q1. The portfolio business seems -- is very strong globally. I think that continues to be steady. The one segment we haven't seen momentum is really the automotive side, which is the EV battery testing, which still remains muted primarily in Europe, though we expect to see easier comparisons that to recover. The book-to-bill in Test and Measurement in Q1, they had 11%, sales growth was only 1.03. We expect that to build out through the rest of the year to give us the backlog position to deliver a good '26, but also importantly, in a good '27.

So we expect book-to-bill still above -- like nicely above 1 as you move into the second half of the year at T&M.

Correct.

Okay. So that should be a nice growth story in '27. On that front, you do have a decent sized backlog. Your book-to-bill has been pretty solid, nice order growth. What do you worry about other than Middle East? Is there anything -- what were the swing factors in the second half of the year that pre what's happening over there, you were maybe on watch? What watching for?

Yes, I would say nothing -- outside of the Middle East dynamic, nothing of concern. I think backlog is up 9%. I mean, obviously, if you do the math, the second half, our trailing 6-month and 12-month order rates are mid-single digits. So they're supportive of that 5% to 6% we have to deliver in the second half. Right now, we're -- we'll do mid-single-digit orders this quarter, mid-single-digit orders for the year, mid-single-digit growth in backlog as we exit the year into 2027, which then underwrites that 5% to 6% second half that we currently have in the plan. So no concerns there. We have the backlog and the phased backlog to execute in the second half. We'll just have to see the dynamics around what impact Middle East will or will not have in that.

And as we look back 3Q, 4Q, are we looking at kind of like the TTM. You're talking mid-single digit. Is that like a TTM of like 6% or 4%, like mid-single -- when you say mid-singles?

4% to 6%.

4% to 6%. All right. Just want to be a little more precise there. Lastly, just on discrete. I know it's a small percentage of your business and putting T&M aside, but the more core discrete business, any signs of life there? Anything you're seeing that makes you more positive or.

No. Honestly, no. We haven't seen any light -- I mean, the 2 very important markets for that are China and Europe and both remain somewhat muted.

And that's Europe would be the machine builder side of that.

Both domestic as well as export.

Okay. Just on the software side, I know you guys have this like tough comp at Aspen for this year. That should be normalizing next year. Just remind us of how that plays through and then what to expect in '27.

Yes. So software business, $2.5 billion in revenue, $1.6 billion of ACV. ACV growth will be 10-plus percent this year, 9% in Q1, 9% in Q2, acceleration in the second half. So from an ACV and a free cash flow generation perspective, on plan. Obviously, on the revenue -- on the $2.5 billion, half of it is Aspen, $300 million is Test and Measurement and the rest of it, the $900 million is DeltaV innovation software business. So on the Aspen side, we did point out that $120 million, $110 million in the first half, $45 million in Q1 of the renewals impact. If you -- that's about 45% of the Aspen revenue. So we have maintenance revenue. We have obviously the new GACV or the incremental ACV plus services. So Aspen will be down about mid-single digits in revenue. The rest of the software -- the rest of the 50% of the software will be up high single digits. So net-net, we'll be up low single-digit software revenue this year and then double digits in '27 and '28 as the renewals dynamic reverses and we'll have a good renewal year in '27 and '28, and that's that $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion road map we laid out at our Industrial conference.

And is that a reversal in that you have the easy comp plus you have growth on top of that, so it's an even stronger growth rate or just grows like it should have grown that ACV rate off of that lower base.

No, the ACV will be consistent. Renewals is what's available to renew. So it's the ASC 606 accounting. That will come back where we have a lot more renewals scheduled for '27 and '28 just based on the timing of the renewals. So that will mathematically convert to revenue. ACV, no impact.

Yes. I was just thinking the trend line, if you go down, does the trend line recouple so it's an even stronger growth rate than ACV.

Right. You recover plus you'll have growth. Plus growth...

Recover plus growth. I think that's the point I was trying to get at. So next year should be a really good year in that particular part of the software. Maybe talk about the business model in software and how -- I know there's been a lot of debate around AI and disruption. And I think you guys put out a really good cheat sheet on your software business. Maybe go through your business model and why you believe that AI may even be an enabler as opposed to a challenge and a disruptor.

Yes. So obviously, our software business, we play in vertical software in mission-critical industries with high levels of regulation where being almost right is definitely wrong. And our customers really need real-time deterministic solutions on the control side and certainly high fidelity first principle simulations versus relying on inferential black box solutions. So I think that's 2 very important moats that protect our software offering on the control side, which is Ovation and DeltaV. Certainly on the simulation side, which is majority of the Aspen business and then also the test automation software on the NI business. In addition, our pricing model on the control software is perpetual licenses. So it's value-based pricing, clearly not dependent on seat licenses. So even if customers are deploying AI at an enterprise scale that allows them to have less number of people, they will still pay the same amount for the perpetual license. And then on the Aspen side, it's usage-based models, so tokenized. So we've made that transition. So if the Aspen simulation is used by an engineer, we get paid. If it's used by an agent, we get paid. And so ultimately, we have all the moats necessary in our $2.5 billion software business, we feel comfortable based on mission-critical, high levels of regulation, real-time deterministic that we will not be displaced by frontier models. Now we are building AI capability into our solutions, whether it's simple virtual advisers or complete task automation around building a test automation protocol or configuring control systems, task automation or even complete workflow automation through an agentic framework that allows our customers to then deploy AI in using our solutions and then through APIs, link our software to broader frontier models that build them productivity at an enterprise scale. So those are important investments we're making where AI can be a force multiplier. But the most important thing we're doing, particularly in the OT space, is solving the data challenges, which make industrial AI hard for our customers, which is our inmation solution that then goes into these OT data silos, and we are deploying solutions that can liberate, democratize and contextualize OT data for AI orchestration at scale. And so that's a revenue stream that we will capitalize from because until that is done, industrial AI at scale is going to be very challenging for many of our clients.

How is your product differentiated there? That would seem to be a -- maybe somebody else would be doing that, helping contextualize the data. Why is it your entitlement to play in something like that?

Because our understanding of OT data in terms of the data that is trapped in control systems or reliability systems is a key differentiator. And we have a unique solution with all of the connectors needed because remember, the data has to be accessed from multiple sensors. You have to understand the sensors to contextualize the data. You have to understand the control system to contextualize it. So I think our domain expertise, coupled with this technology that we have within inmation and the ERP we're building puts us in a unique position versus, say, a generic consultant or even broad-based players in the defense space. I won't give -- throw out names. But there are others that are doing it in the defense industry, the ontology that they're building. In the OT domain, we believe our understanding of the domain gives us the right to win.

And that's your -- and the customer is fine with you touching that data? And is that their data, though? Or is that something that kind of comes into a repository that you can analyze and you can use.

No. It's their data, and we deploy it for them. So a big -- we just announced it in one of our earnings call, I don't remember which a big engagement with Total. Total is really going down the journey of using us. It's their solution. It's their data. We will deploy it for them, and our solutions will help them drive AI orchestration and scale, but it is their installation for them to get the benefits. Now they will couple that with frontier models that take other workflows, non-OT workflows and move them towards an AI journey, but we will have a meaningful role to play when it comes to OT.

I think Lal talked a bit about AI initiatives internally and driving some productivity. Where are you guys on that journey? And any meaningful wins so far?

Two big initiatives, finance and customer care. Combination of the two, we have about 10,000 people between FP&A, our GFS, our general ledger, AP, AR and then all of our customer care resources supporting the business units. Those are all opportunities for us to deploy an agentic framework on top of the systems of record, be it Oracle and finance or Salesforce/Oracle when it comes to customer care to automate financial planning and analysis, receivables, how we manage the general ledger, certainly quote to order in terms of customer support, where we have humans obviously working on the system of record, performing many tasks that an agentic framework can automate. So we're making meaningful investments in frontier models. Now it will obviously in partnership with hyperscalers and open source technology in order for us to unlock productivity. It's early, but we do believe that there's 30% productivity opportunities if those solutions work.

30% productivity opportunities. Is that a 3-year journey? Or is that something that can really like -- have an impact like in a more immediate sense?

It's built in as a terminal 3-year in our 30% adjusted EBITDA road map contributes a big portion of the 200 basis points of the 400 basis points of OpEx. And I think it will be ratable. I think we'll start seeing benefits in '27 and '28.

That's pretty significant.

Yes.

The long-term growth algorithm, we're going to be, I think, this year, probably at the low end potentially. Do you see a year in the next couple of years where we can kind of like get above the high end of that to average it out? And is that -- is the 4% to 7% still -- you're still confident that, that's kind of the right long-term trajectory to talk about for the business?

Yes, that is. That is the long term, and I'll describe in a second why we believe that. But I think this year, I mean, simplistically, it's $1 billion of growth a year. This year, we get currency favorability. So we'll deliver the $1 billion on the 4% -- so you get the $1 billion, the $1 billion and the $1 billion. So I think it's $18 billion, $19 billion, $20 billion, $21 billion is really how we're planning it, which gets us into the to 5 to 5.5-ish as we get into -- underlying as we get into '27 and '28, and we feel pretty good about that. Now certainly, as we described it in our investor conference, $1 billion of that growth will come in software going from $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. And then that the remainder of the business will grow at mid-single digit, powered by the growth verticals as well as the MRO growth at mid-single digits. That's really how we've underwritten the growth. So we're not relying on a meaningful acceleration for us to get into the high end of that range to get to the $21 billion in the near-term plan. Now could we get surprised by very favorable markets driving it closer to the [ 7% ] in '27 or '28? Possibly, but we're not relying on that to get to the $21 billion.

Right. Because the drag this year from software, that will flip. That will grow next year. Yes, that makes sense. And then how should we think about the normalized incremental margins on that growth rate. You guys have had some really good years of margin expansion. What's kind of the normal rate?

I mean I think 40%. I think mathematically, the 40% gets you to that 30%. Could we do better? Yes, I think we -- given our historical record, yes, this year will be a tight. It will be till the 40%, but the headwind from the renewals dynamic will hurt us a little bit this year. So we'll only do -- I mean we're guiding to till the '28, so 40 to 50 basis points from where we were last year, but then that ramps up 80 to 100 basis points in '27 and '28.

Putting the software impact aside, when you look at the segments, which of the segments do you think has the most opportunity from a margin perspective if you put the software, obviously, the low base of software.

I think both Final Control and Sensors have opportunities.

And is that -- what are the levers there, mostly volume leverage and mix? Or is it price?

It's all -- strong price, but a lot of the OpEx initiatives around footprint consolidation, regionalization of the supply chain, moving our best cost headcount by 5 basis points over this planning period and a lot of the productivity in finance and customer care is in that Intelligent Device segment.

And you're getting 2.5% of price this year. Is that a normal rate? Or should it -- it's a decent number? Or should that go down more to the 2% -- it seems like it's a bit more of a trend. Obviously, have maybe some tariff benefits in that this year. How do we look at it going forward?

Yes, I think 2% is really how we've modeled it. And I think that's reasonable.

And your normal algorithm around net material inflation, what do we think about as that benefit? Or is it margin neutral? How do we look at net material inflation?

A point of favorability on the materials. So 2 points of price, a point of NMI on $3.5 billion of material spend.

Okay. And you don't see enough inflation today exiting into the second half to really try and pick up more price? What is the normal cadence for your price increases as you move through the year?

Yes. I think we've obviously put in all of the price we need this year. Typically, it's on October 1 as we enter the year. And unless there is any kind of an event that forces us to look at incremental pricing, we stay disciplined and not have midyear price increases. Now obviously, the last 2 years have been anomalies. The only dynamic is if logistics costs continue to rise given the dynamics of what transpired in the last 2.5 weeks, that might be the only variable. But outside of that, I would say 2.5% price for this year, which is about 3% in the first half, 2% in the second half and then continued 2% into '27 and '28.

And on the MRO front, that's pretty steady. There's no real headwinds there that could impact mix. I know that's pretty favorable from a mix perspective, the MRO revenue. Nothing there that would really impact that.

No.

Okay. From a -- on cash, I think you're 90%, 95% type of conversion. Is there a pathway to get to 100%? Or is the amort, obviously, cash EPS is a kind of mathematical headwind to a degree?

It is. I think the mid- to high 90s is a good barometer. But the more important thing to model for us is we're really starting to focus on free cash flow as a percent of sales, which will be 18% this year with 20% by 2028. So I think 18% to 20% is the guide, and I think we'll be 18% this year and 20% in 2028.

What are some of the moving parts on free cash flow? Is any working capital opportunity or...

Yes. I think most of the working capital opportunity, I think, from test and measurement, we've already baked into the plan. It's going to be in this year. Frankly, I think working capital will be a little bit of a headwind as we grow the business. And so I think if we can hold it neutral and really drive the cash performance purely on earnings and mix -- software mix, where I think the software business and NI has higher free cash flow as a percent of sales. So as they ramp up in the growth cycle, we'll get cash generation due to mix.

Okay. And then on capital allocation, repo acquisitions, divestitures, just talk about what you're doing with the portfolio? And then any -- what's the incremental repo outlook for the rest of the plan?

Yes. So in this plan, '26, '27 and '28, $14 billion of OCF, operating cash flow generation in the plan that we laid out, of which $2 billion between capital and working capital usage. So that's $12 billion of free cash flow, $1 billion of debt paydown, $1 billion set aside for bolt-on M&A as we see opportunities in sensing or software, if some assets were to unlock at relatively decent valuations or test and measurement and then really $10 billion deployed back in return to shareholders, $4 billion of dividend, of which we're increasing dividends $0.11 this year, $0.10 in '27, $0.10 in '28, $6 billion of repo, $1 billion this year, $2.5 billion next year, $2.5 billion in '28.

And so that acquisition, I mean, that's a very small amount of bolt-ons. Could that change? Is there a toggle there at all if there's something out there that's interesting?

Yes. I mean, listen, I think we'll watch. It's the quality of the assets at the right valuation that will -- if they become available, we'll have to rethink that. Certainly, the condition in the market out in 2027, I mean, there are parts of the portfolio we could get out of. And there's obviously -- that may amp up our ability to do more. But at this point, I think we're staying pretty disciplined to this plan because we don't expect the opportunities to manifest in any way in '27.

Any updated thoughts on S&P and a divestiture there?

No. At this point, I think there's -- obviously, it's a part of the cycle where we see runway in that business. So we'll continue to execute and then we'll continue to monitor on an annual basis.

Okay. A couple more questions just on the technology front. Talk about your boundless automation initiative. I found that interesting when we visited you guys in Austin a while ago. Maybe how far is that coming virtual DCS, Explain what's going on there.

Yes. I mean great progress. I think, frankly, the 3 important pieces of the boundless automation vision or the virtual DCS is around the data fabric or the data lake. So we're investing in building that technology I described earlier, which is the Inmation platform to give the foundation of a unifying data fabric, software-defined control, which is the virtual DCS that you described, and that's making great progress on both Ovation and DeltaV and the ability to put the control logic as a software layer and decouple it from the hardware and the hardware goes from custom-built hardware with a lot of I/O to a simple Dell hyperconverged infrastructure server and a lot of the controls functionality and software. And then AI orchestration and scale, all built in a Zero Trust architecture. So a lot of great new initiatives underway, many of those capabilities being launched with DeltaV version 16 innovation. And we do believe that as we build more traction with customers like Total, the deployment of the EOP will continue to gain traction. And very simplistically, the vision, what does it all mean? We play in a $30 billion market of DCS and software, which is 2/3 hardware and services, 1/3 software. And our vision is to move that market, even if there's no growth, hold a 30, but shift the mix where 2/3 become software and 1/3 is hardware. And if we can do that, we meaningfully drive the vision of an enterprise operations platform, AI orchestration at scale, solving the data problem and helping customers deploy these as enterprise solutions like they do in ERP versus site-specific DCS.

Right with all this labor around...

[indiscernible] some services and...

Yes, it seems arcane. And then just lastly, somewhat related to AI, I thought the example that you gave in test and measurement on the configuration agent, however you want to call it, how has that been resonating? And maybe just explain what you're doing there because I think it's one of the more interesting AI-related applications out there.

Yes. Great progress. I mean it's the Nigel platform. And fundamentally, what Nigel does is completely automates the workflow that today a test engineer performs. So if you take an ADG customer like Raytheon, for example, what -- in an R&D lab, they will get a spec, this thick from the R&D department to say, okay, we're developing a new product, come up with this is the test that we need to run, design the test and run the test for us. What Nigel will do is fundamentally take that test spec and convert it into an automated test protocol with no human intervention. So that is weeks of work of a test engineer without Nigel to convert that spec from engineering into an automated test spec using LabVIEW Instrument Studio and then using TestStand and VeriStand to run the test. So fundamentally, the AI investment with the Nigel platform is to automate that and significantly eliminate the number of hours a test engineer has to spend. And that's making great progress.

And do you charge them? How do you charge them for that?

Great question. It is tiered into the LabVIEW with Nigel. So we get it as price built into the highest tier. We don't necessarily call out a specific incremental charge, but LabVIEW in the highest tier has Nigel built in. So we obviously market the capabilities of LabVIEW plus with Nigel and they pay for the highest tier and the margins are very, very high.

Any stats on penetration yet or usage or anything like that on this one?

Early, but I mean, a lot of enterprise accounts are switching to and we'll have a lot more traction as we get into '27 because many of these contracts are up for renewal.

If I look at the T&M business and how fast that's growing, how fast is the LabVIEW part of that growing? Is it materially above.

On par.

On par. Okay. Got it. Got it. Any questions out there? We have a couple of minutes left. Maybe just to kind of like step all the way back to the beginning. So I just want to make sure I'm clear on this. You're saying that very decent presence in the Middle East, very minimal impact this quarter, really comes out in the wash if it ends quickly.

It comes out of a wash if it ends quickly for the full year, full year. This quarter, we're -- I mean, I'm not in a position to quantify an impact. In theory, our plants are running. We have 3.5 weeks left. I think that's a fair assumption, but we've got to get through the quarter. I mean things could get worse before it gets better.

Right. Okay. All right. Anything else? Anyone? Thank you so much.

Thank you. Thanks a lot.