GoPro, Inc. (GPRO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's GoPro Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Cole and I will be the moderator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to pass the call over to Robin Stoecker. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Cole. Good afternoon, and welcome to GoPro's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are GoPro's CEO, Nicholas Woodman; and CFO and COO, Brian McGee. Today's agenda will include brief commentary from Nick and Brian, followed by Q&A. For detailed information about our fourth quarter and full year 2024 performance as well as outlook, please read our Q4 and full year earnings press release and management commentary we posted to the Investor Relations section of GoPro's website. Before I pass the call to Nick, I'd like to remind everybody that our remarks today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements and all other statements that are not historical facts are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ materially. Additionally, any forward-looking statements made today are based on assumptions as of today. This means that results could change at any time, and we do not undertake any obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. To better understand the risks and uncertainties that cause actual results to differ from our commentary, we refer you to our most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, which is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission and other reports that we may file from time to time with the SEC. Today, we may discuss gross margin, operating expense, net profit and loss, adjusted EBITDA as well as basic and diluted net profit and loss per share in accordance with GAAP and on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP operating expenses can be found in the press release that was issued this afternoon, which is posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. Unless otherwise noted, following some statement related numbers that are discussed in the management commentary and remarks made today other than revenue are non-GAAP. Now I'll turn the call over to GoPro's Founder and CEO, Nicholas Woodman.

Thanks, Robin, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. As Robin mentioned, Brian and I will share brief remarks before going into Q&A and I want to encourage all on the call to read the detailed management commentary we posted on our Investor Relations website. I would like to start the call by addressing recent U.S. tariff announcements on inbound goods to be sold in the U.S., which we do not expect to materially impact our U.S. consumer pricing or gross margin due to our proactive supply chain management. This is thanks to the terrific job our teams have done to diversify our manufacturing and sourcing over the years. GoPro's Q4 results landed largely in line or slightly better than our guidance. During the quarter, we took action to rightsize operating expenses. We're now focused on delivering our 2025 and 2026 products in an efficient manner, which includes a broadening of our portfolio that we believe will yield profitable returns for GoPro and our shareholders over time. The GoPro subscription is the most profitable products we sell and our retention numbers demonstrate the strength in the value we offer subscribers as illustrated by ARPU improving 8% year-over-year. Aggregate subscription retention in Q4 was 69%, up from 67% both sequentially and year-over-year. And our annual retention rates continue to be consistent with what we previously reported, including positive numbers for fourth year renewals of nearly 90%. In 2024, in addition to our flagship HERO13 Black, we introduced an entry-level product, an exciting tiny 4K camera we call HERO. This ultra-small 86-gram featherweight camera has enormous potential that we're excited to continue to tap into. Just last week, the firmware update, we added a wider, more immersive in-camera 4:3 aspect ratio for video capture along with a super view digital lens setting in the app, which combine to enable an immersive, it-feels-like-you're-there point of view perspective during any activity. The immersive capture our engineering teams have enabled in this tiny entry-level GoPro is staggering. We expect sales to grow over time as we continue to champion its capabilities with updates. And it goes without saying that we're excited to grow our presence in the 360-degree camera market, a market we pioneered and led for several years with category-defining IP and products. As we've shared, the 360-degree camera market represents a robust growth segment in the broader digital imaging category, and it's an understatement to say that we're excited about the opportunity to grow our share in this important market. Recent and upcoming events related to the 360-degree camera market include our recent release of a powerful totally new and enhanced 360-degree editing experience in the Quik app complete with impressive subject tracking, intuitive key frame-based reframing and more. And later this month, we'll begin selling a refreshed MAX 360-degree camera to serve as an entry-level 360 SKU ahead of the highly anticipated availability of our MAX 2 360 camera later this year. And of course, MAX will be compatible with all the new aforementioned features in the updated Quik app. And speaking of MAX 2, we're excited about the progress we've made on what we believe are innovative capabilities that will redefine the 360 camera market and position MAX 2 as the world's most impressive 360 camera. Innovation can be hard and we're proud of our engineers who've stayed committed to making MAX 2 into something truly special. We cannot wait to launch it later this year. Further on the innovation front, I'm excited to share that we've completed the validation of our next-generation SoC GP3. Everything we know about the competitive landscape for market-available SoCs leads us to believe GP3 will once again set new performance standards, not only in our categories of cameras but for the digital imaging industry as a whole. As we noted on our last earnings call, in 2025, we expect units and revenue to be lower than 2024, primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds, competition and the previously mentioned delay of our new MAX 2 360 camera that we intend to launch later this year in 2025. We've substantially reduced operating expenses for 2025 and believe this lower level of spending enables us to continue to innovate and will lead us to an exciting year of new releases in 2026 and beyond. To be clear, we are focused on returning GoPro to unit and revenue growth, along with improved profitability. We plan to do this through a broader, more diversified and innovative road map that we believe will expand our TAM and further establish GoPro as a market-leading innovator while restoring unit and revenue growth in 2026. It can be challenging to simultaneously be an innovator and a leader, yet we maintain an unwavering commitment to realizing the long-term rewards that perseverance, innovation and super-serving our end users can yield. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

Thanks, Nick. In the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue was in line with guidance of $201 million. GAAP net loss per share was $0.24, while non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.09 exceeded guidance. Subscription and service revenue grew 9% year-over-year, primarily from 8% ARPU growth as a result of continued improving aggregate retention rate, which reached a record 69%. Sell-through in the fourth quarter of approximately 775,000 camera units was in line with expectations and resulted in more than 170,000 camera unit decrease in channel inventory. Additional highlights performance for the fourth quarter include subscribers grew 1% year-over-year to 2.52 million, including 70,000 Premium+ subscribers. Subscription attach rate from cameras sold across all channels was 34% compared to 29% in Q4 2023, a 16% improvement, and Street ASP was $346 compared to $330 in Q4 2023. Notable performance highlights for the year include subscription and service revenue grew 10% year-over-year to $107 million, primarily from, again, improving aggregate retention rates and subscription gross margin exceeded 70%. Retail revenue was 75% of total revenue at $601 million, down 15% year-over-year. Gopro.com product revenue was 12% of total revenue at $94 million down 54% year-over-year. Street ASP was $330 compared to $337 in 2023. Operating loss was $80 million compared to an operating loss of $34 million in 2023. And finally, sell-through was 2.5 million units, down 13% year-over-year. As we look at the outlook, as we previously noted, we continue to expect unit and revenue in 2025 to be lower than 2024, primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds FX due to a stronger U.S. dollar, competition and the delay of our new 360 camera. That said, we have undertaken several initiatives in 2024 to put us back on a path to long-term success. Notably, this includes our plan to reduce operating expenses nearly 30% from 2024 and honing our road map to drive not only faster time to market but also more efficiently and how we design our products. Additionally, our focus on operational efficiencies to drive down costs and expand our supply chain outside of China is expected to improve gross margin by more than 100 basis points in 2025 over 2024 and nearly 300 basis points improved over 2023. And finally, we are actively managing the balance sheet to further reduce inventory to be consistently well below $100 million through the cash and operate more efficiently with our working capital. For the first quarter of 2025, we expect to deliver revenue of $125 million, plus and minus $10 million, down 20% year-over-year. We estimate Street ASP in the first quarter to be approximately $365, down year-over-year from $395. We expect unit sell-through to be down 20% year-over-year to approximately 430,000 units and channel inventory to reduce by approximately 60,000 units sequentially. We expect gross margin in the first quarter to be 35% at the midpoint of guidance, up slightly versus the prior year quarter. We expect first quarter 2025 operating expenses to be approximately $63 million, plus or minus $2 million, a 24% reduction from the prior year quarter due to lower spending on wages from lower head count, reduced marketing and lower nonrecurring engineering expenses related to the completion of our new GP3 SoC. Non-GAAP tax expense is expected to be $1 million in the first quarter of 2025. We expect non-GAAP loss per share in the first quarter of $0.13 at the midpoint of guidance and expect shares outstanding to be approximately 155 million. Turning to the balance sheet, we expect cash to be approximately $80 million at the end of the first quarter. And now I'll provide commentary on full year -- some full year 2025. We expect gross margin improvement of more than 100 basis points in 2025 from 2024 based on the following factors: the introduction of our MAX 2 360 camera, identified product costs, operating costs as well as further tariff savings due to continued supply chain diversification outside of China and subscription ARPU growth and subscription cost improvement. We expect our full year 2025 operating expenses to be in the range of $250 million to $260 million, down $100 million or nearly 30% year-over-year. Non-GAAP tax expense is expected to be $3 million in 2025. And cash tax is expected to be $1 million in 2025. With the anticipated decline in unit sales in 2025 and 2024, our subscriber count is expected to be approximately 2.4 million at the end of 2025. We expect subscription and service revenue in 2025 to be approximately $105 million. The continued improvement in aggregate retention rate is driving improved ARPU with the softening in the revenue decline due to the slight decrease in subscribers. Turning to the balance sheet, we expect cash at the end of the year to be approximately $50 million, which anticipates the repayment of our convertible debt. In addition, we have a $50 million asset-backed line or ABL facility available. We believe our cash position, along with our ABL facility will be sufficient to fund our plan. In summary, in 2024, we undertook several initiatives to reduce operating expenses, improve gross margin, refine our product road map for improved diversification in 2025 and 2026 and implement efficiencies in our approach to product development. We are focused on launching new products while preserving cash to repay our debt in 2025 and launching a significant number of new products in 2026 to restore growth and profitability to our business. Finally, we look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on March 5. Operator, with that, we are now ready to take questions.

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

I apologize, I'm hopping between calls. But -- maybe, I guess it's for you, Brian. I think I heard you guide to subscribers, I mean, next year of, I think it was 2.4 million, which would be down year-over-year. I realize units will be down, but your commentary, at least that I caught on renewal rates was -- sounded very bullish. And so can you just help us understand the moving pieces for how you get to subscriber declines in 2025, please? And then I have a quick follow-up.

Sure. Well, we said units would be down. And so our attach rate for the full year is about 42%. We're assuming 38% to 40% on that front. And we do continue to see aggregate retention improve. And so that results in an improvement in ARPU. So that's helping to counterbalance the reduction in units. And therefore, you get about $105 million of revenue and about 2.4 million less than -- the or 2.4 million subs, down about 120,000.

Okay. Perfect. Perfect. And then, Brian, maybe just a follow-up. You provide obviously a handful of details on 2025, gross margin, OpEx, taxes, I realize that 2025 revenue will decline. Is there any more kind of concrete guidance that you can provide us for how we should be thinking about 2025, the revenue base you're considering for that base of OpEx? Just anything that could help us kind of maybe narrow down expectations into 2025. And that's it for me.

Yes, sure. We're going to guide quarter-to-quarter, Erik. It's a long year to go. We feel good about the products we have, the products that are coming out, but there's headwinds with consumer competition and FX, right, which has impacted us a lot. I mean, FX from 2021 into 2022, '23 and '24 has impacted us about $50 million on the top line margin and bottom line. So we got to worry about where the dollar is going as well. So it's -- but we said it would be down. I'm not going to give a precise number. The good news is we think we've got good margin going here at 35% and some really good cost reduction. Clearly, the subscription and service is helping us from a margin perspective. We expect that to continue. I mean, since 2023, it's probably about a 200 to 250 basis point improvement in margin right there along with the 100-and-some basis points of other costs like the freight tariff and warrant is we have much better product experience for our customers. So all those things combined to make 35%, but we're not going to guide the top line right now for 2025.

I'd just like to add one more point on subscription. While we expect it to be down in 2024, we -- sorry in 2025 -- we expect to grow subscription again in 2026 with the launch of a slew of exciting new products that are going to broaden our portfolio considerably. So that's the -- a bright spot to look forward to 2026.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Martin Yang with Oppenheimer.

First question on MAX. And curious to hear your decision to reintroduce the MAX 1 back into the market? And any context you could provide on that decision and how or whether that model will be margin accretive for you?

Thanks, Martin. Yes, we had cleared the channel of MAX in anticipation of MAX 2 and as we shared, the delay of MAX 2 caused some complications for the business. And so we determined that and we identified that there's a market for MAX. It's a slightly refreshed product along with the significant software enhancements that we just launched recently as a free update to the GoPro Quik app, the overall 360 experience is much enhanced. So we're super excited to get MAX back out into the marketplace here later this month. And then that's going to serve as a terrific entry-level 360 product, paving the way, the momentum towards the launch of MAX 2. So it was a pretty easy decision to go and essentially refresh the product and bring it back into the market as an entry-level experience, again, bolstered by the new and enhanced software experience that we just recently launched and that we'll be building on throughout the year. So I'm happy to let GoPro 360 camera owners know that the software experience will continue to expand over the course of the year. So look forward to that. And on the margin front, I'll hand it over to Brian.

Yes, Martin, it is absolutely margin accretive, more in dollars than necessarily percentage, but the percentage is built into our model of 35% for the year.

And then the second question is on new products this year. So we have MAX 2 coming up later. And then you referenced GP3 development updates. Do we expect GP3 to be -- or GP3-enabled camera to be out this year?

Martin, I wish that we could be more transparent with our road map, but just due to competition, we're going to have to be a bit more opaque than we have in the past as it relates to upcoming product releases. So we're not going to be able to provide any information on that. I apologize.

Got it. No problem. Last question for me is on overall subscription trend. And is there any way when you look at the overall long-term growth for subscription, do you still view our sales as a primary driver of subscription revenue? Is there any other levers you can pull to boost subscription revenue growth or that return growth?

Yes, it's Brian -- do you want to start?

Yes, Brian, yes, I'll just start with one thing. It is tied to -- historically, it's been tied to hardware, but we are identifying opportunities to create new software experiences that we think will lead to not only added engagement within our existing subscriber community but also help improve conversion rates amongst buyers. So we've identified a number of opportunities that we'll address over time to expand the functionality and relevance of our hardware products to serve more use cases, more customer groups and more ways through software that we think can have an accretive impact on subscription over time, in addition to selling more units, which is the primary driver of subscription, but we think we can improve on that and expand beyond just hardware sales through Software-as-a-Service as a driver of subscription as well. I don't know if you have anything more to add to that?

I don't think there's much more to add on that. Well, I mean the other thing that I'll add, Martin, is we've continued to improve aggregate retention rate like year 1 at 60%, year 2, 70%, then 80% and now nearly 90% in year 4. So the longer subscribers stay in the program, the more likely they are to engage and come back in, and that's what's helping to drive our ARPU up year after year. So that's exciting. And as we -- as Nick mentioned, we returned to subscription growth, we believe, in 2026. And so that has the additional benefit of keeping more people in longer, adding more service capability that enhances the value proposition for this, which will then fuel aggregate retention. So that both are important, right? That drives -- ultimately drives ARPU and revenue growth and margin.

We have no further questions at this time. So I'll pass the call back to the management team for any final remarks.

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. We believe we're positioned to return to unit revenue growth along with improved profitability in 2026 and as we plan to introduce a broader, more diversified and innovative road map that we believe will expand our TAM and further establish GoPro as a market-leading innovator. Thanks, everyone. This is team GoPro signing off.

That concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.