Hindalco Industries Limited (500440) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Hindalco Industries Third Quarter FY '22 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations of Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, and a very good afternoon or morning, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to the earnings call for the third quarter of financial year 2022. In this call, we will refer to the Q3 FY '22 investor presentation available on our company's website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on Slide #2 of the said presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the key highlights of all the businesses for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2022 and a segment-wise comparative financial analysis of India business and our overseas subsidiary, Novelis. Please note that the unallocable corporate AS&D expenses, which used to be a portion to the individual business segments, is now plot under unallocable expense or income to truly reflect our individual business segments, EBITDA and the Indian operations. The corresponding segment information for the prior periods have also been restated accordingly for a comparative analysis. We have with us on the call from Hindalco's management, Mr. Satish Pai, Managing Director; Mr. Praveen Maheshwari, Chief Financial Officer. From Novelis' management, we have Mr. Steve Fisher, President and CEO; and Mr. Dev Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, this call will be open to any questions you may have. An audio replay of this call will also be available on our website. Now let me turn this call to Satish.

Thank you, Subir. A very good afternoon and morning, everyone, and thanks for joining today's conference call on Hindalco's earnings for the third quarter of FY '22. Let me start with our progress for the first 9 months of FY '22 across the various sustainability metrics on Slide 5 and 6. On the environment, we continue to focus on water-based air emissions and biodiversity. We have achieved 81% of total recycling and reuse of all waste generated in the first 9 months of FY '22. We have achieved 95% bauxite residue utilization at 3 out of our 4 alumina refineries. Utkal Alumina refinery is conducting 2 pilot pits to reuse bauxite residue for mine backfilling, of which Pit 1 is ready and Pit 2 is under construction. We have already applied to the Indian Road Congress for accreditation of bauxite residue as a replacement of natural material for road subgrade and embankment construction. 105% of the fly ash from power was reused year-to-date FY '22. On water, our freshwater consumption in the first 9 months was 54.2 million cubic meters with a continuous reduction in consumption of water at all locations over the years. Hindalco is adding one site each year to achieve ZLD, zero liquid discharge, at all sites by year 2025. On green cover and biodiversity, in line with the International Union for Conservation of Nature guidelines, we have implemented biodiversity management plans at 2 of our plants and 2 of the mines. And we are in process of implementing this at 4 of the other mine sites. The cumulative greenbelt at all our sites in the first 9 months of FY '22 is now spread over 4,980 acres, an increase of 308 acres from last financial year. Coming to renewable energy and safety update on Slide 6. I'm happy to announce that we have reached our FY '22 target of 100 megawatts of renewable capacity. We have identified nearly 69 megawatts of renewable projects, including floating solar, wind, renewable hybrid power, et cetera. We are targeting to reach 200 megawatts by the end of FY '25. We are also exploring emerging technologies in the space of energy storage, carbon capture and utilization and hydrogen as a fuel. The specific energy consumption in aluminum was recorded at 82.4% in the first 9 months of FY '22 from the base year of FY '12. On safety, we are committed to Zero Harm and have been continuously upgrading our safety programs and systems to meet international standards. The LTIFR was recorded at 0.25. Unfortunately, there have been 2 fatalities recorded of contract workmen at our Indian operations in the first 9 months of this fiscal year. Coming to Slide 8 on the key highlights of our performance in Q3 FY '22. Novelis recorded quarterly shipments of 930 Kt in Q3 FY '22, which was flat year-on-year as quarter 3 is seasonally a low shipment quarter and was also impacted by ongoing semiconductor chip shortage, unplanned downtime and supply chain bottlenecks. EBITDA stood at $506 million, up 1% year-on-year and EBITDA per ton was $544 a ton, up 1% year-on-year. Net income from continuing operation was $259 million, up 33% year-on-year this quarter versus $195 million in the corresponding period of last year. Novelis has announced an investment of $365 million to build a highly advanced recycling center with recycling and casting capacity of around 240 Kt per annum in Guthrie, Kentucky. Moving on to Hindalco's India Aluminum business performance in quarter 3. Our business EBITDA for Indian aluminum was at a record high of INR 3,376 crores, up 131% year-on-year. EBITDA margin was at 41% and continues to be one of the best in the industry. Aluminum metal sales were up 3% year-on-year at 325 Kt, whereas while our value-added product sales were up 8% year-on-year at 86 Kt this quarter. Hindalco acquired Hydro's high-end extrusion facility with a capacity of 15 Kt at Kuppam, Andhra Pradesh. This highly specialized and customized product portfolio at Kuppam will significantly enhance Hindalco's capability in high-end extrusions. During the quarter, Hindalco successfully renewed its 5.35 million ton of coal linkages with Coal India to ensure resource security. Turning to the quarterly performance of the Copper business on Slide 9. All our smelters ran optimally and delivered a consistent performance in quarter 3. Our cathode production in this quarter was at 102 Kt, up 99% year-on-year, while CC rod production was at 77 Kt, up 15% year-on-year. Metal sales were at the high of 110 Kt, up 50% year-on-year, while CC rod sales were at 71 Kt, up 9% year-on-year, in line with market demand. Copper EBITDA was at INR 390 crores this quarter, up 63% year-on-year on the back of higher volumes, better operational efficiencies and improved by-product realization. Coming to our quarterly consolidated performance. EBITDA stood at INR 7,624 crores, up 38% year-on-year. Quarterly consolidated PAT from continuing operations was at a record INR 3,660 crores, up 81% year-on-year, compared to INR 2,021 crores in the corresponding period last year. Hindalco continues to maintain its strong treasury balance of around $808 million in Novelis and INR 15,870 crores in India at the end of December 2021. Net debt-to-EBITDA continues to remain well below 2. At the end of December 2021, it was at 1.62 versus 2.59 at the end of March '21. I'm pleased to share with you that Hindalco retained its position as the world's most sustainable aluminum company in the DJSI 2021 ranking and the only aluminum company in the prestigious DJSI World Index 2021. Hindalco has also retained its prestigious Gold Class distinction in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook of 2022. Now turning to the broader economic environment on Slide 11. The global economy is expected to expand by 4.4% year-on-year in calendar year '22 after a post-pandemic rebound of 5.9% in calendar year '21. While the Omicron wave has not disrupted economic recovery, it may prolong the current high inflation scenario by accentuating the supply chain disruptions for a longer period of time than it was initially expected. However, as central banks and governments normalize policy by way of fiscal consolidation and interest rate hikes, inflation is expected to ease in the second half of calendar year '22. Faster pace of vaccination and resilience of business to respond to new COVID base will continue to support economic recovery. However, slower growth in China and geopolitical tensions are some of the downside risks to growth. On the domestic front, Indian economic activity is gaining pace with most high-frequency indicators bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels in Q3 FY '22. Government of India's economic survey projects India's real GDP growth of 8% to 8.5% in FY '23 on back of 9.2% estimated growth for financial year '22. The Union Budget of FY '23 will provide further impetus to this growth via public CapEx push, leading to a multiplier effect on other sectors of the economy. On the backdrop of rising global inflation, inflationary pressures have also been building up in India. While the Fed's tightening cycle will influence RBI monetary policy response, it will be mindful of domestic growth and inflation tradeoffs. Let me now take you through the aluminum industry overview of Slide 12 and 13. In calendar year '21, the global production of aluminum grew by 4% year-on-year to around 67.5 million tons while the global consumption rebounded sharply by 9% to 68.5 million tons. This has resulted in a deficit of 1.1 million tons of aluminum in the global markets. On a region-wide split, the Chinese production increased by 5% year-on-year to 38.5 million tons in calendar year '21, whereas the Chinese consumption was up by 6% year-on-year. This was primarily driven by 60% growth in EVs and around 10% growth in installed solar capacity, which went to 53 gigawatts in calendar year '21 from 48 gigawatts in calendar year '20. This was offset by the subdued Chinese construction market and lower ICE vehicle production on account of semiconductor chip shortage. On the other hand, overall Chinese consumption reached around 40 million tons in calendar year '21, resulting in a market deficit of 1.4 million tons in calendar year '21. In the rest of the world, production grew by 3% year-on-year to around 28.9 million tons, whereas consumption grew by 14% year-on-year to 28.6 million tons due to the low base effect. This led to a small surplus of 0.3 million tons at the end of calendar year '21. In Q4 of '21, the overall world production reported a marginal growth of 1% to around 16.8 million tons while consumption was flattish at 17 million tons, leading to a market deficit of around 0.2 million tons. The Chinese production fell by 2% year-on-year to 9.5 million tons due to the power rationing and an accident in Yunnan. Consumption faced some headwinds from lower ICE vehicle production and softer construction demand. This led to a consumption degrowth of 1% year-on-year to 9.9 million tons in Q4 calendar year '21. As the production was lower than the consumption, the Chinese market was still in a deficit of 0.4 million tons in Q4 of calendar year '21. In the rest of the world, despite some smelter production cuts due to rising energy prices, the overall production grew by 4% year-on-year to 7.4 million tons this quarter. Consumption expanded by 5% year-on-year, reaching 7.2 million tons, supported by the vaccination-led economic recovery and strong packaging growth. But consequently, the markets were in a small surplus of 0.2 million tons in Q4 of calendar year '21. As the global markets remained in deficit with rising global consumption and low inventory, the global aluminum prices continued to grow to $2,762 a ton in Q4 calendar year '21 from an average of $2,648 per ton in Q3 calendar year '21. This rally in aluminum prices in calendar year '21 was driven by power shortages, production cuts and depleting global inventories. However, as we speak, aluminum prices averaged at over $3,000 a ton in the current quarter, sustained by sustained global recovery, positive investor sentiment and low inventory levels. Coming to Slide 13. The domestic demand for aluminum is likely to reach 1,033 Kt, a 1% growth year-on-year and a 10% growth sequentially this quarter. This is mainly attributable to a broad-based sustained recovery across all the sectors. The building and construction sector is witnessing a recovery in demand on account of government spending on projects like [indiscernible], metro stations, [indiscernible], airports, railway stations, et cetera. A higher demand for aluminum in the consumer durables segment is witnessed with the penetration of e-commerce in India. The aluminum packaging demand continues to rise in line with growth, especially in the pharma sector. Despite the slowdown in automotive production due to semiconductor shortage, scrap imports increased marginally by 3% year-on-year as other domestic producers are exporting higher quantity of alloy ingots to China. The domestic sales of primary producers increased by around 10% year-on-year to 419 Kt this quarter. Moving to Slide 14. The global FRP demand is expected to grow by 6% in calendar year '22 versus 10% growth in calendar year '21. The market demand for beverage can sheet is estimated to grow by around 5% in calendar year '22. Increasing demand of cans is driven by increasing can share as a sustainable packaging option for most beverages. The automotive segment is estimated to grow by 20% in calendar year '22 by new program adoption and increased consumer preference by SUVs, pickup trucks, electric and premium vehicles. The semiconductor shortage uncertainty continues to impact OEM production and auto sheet demand. The demand in specialties is expected to grow by around 4% in calendar year '22 with strong customer demand across markets, including building and construction, consumer electronics, container foil packaging and EV battery enclosures. The aerospace segment is expected to grow by around 30% in calendar year '22 as order bookings are now improving with the resumption of air travel. However, the recovery in this sector could be a bit uneven. The domestic FRP demand is expected to grow by 9% year-on-year this quarter while it is expected to grow 17% sequentially due to the seasonal impact. Demand remains strong in packaging, consumer durables. B&C demand has now improved due to government projects. However, the auto sector continues to face headwinds due to the chip shortage. Turning to the global copper industry on Slide 15. For the year, calendar year '21, the global production of copper grew by 2.4% year-on-year while consumption increased by 4.7% year-on-year as compared to the previous year. In calendar year '21, production in China grew by 6.3% year-on-year whereas consumption grew by 2.5% year-on-year. In the rest of the world, production declined by 0.2% whereas consumption grew by 7.3% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, in Q4 '21, global copper production declined by around 2% while consumption of copper in Q4 declined by 1.6% as compared to the corresponding period of last year. During this period, production in China declined by 2.8% year-on-year while consumption declined by 2.9% on account of lower demand. In the rest of the world, production and consumption were flat year-on-year in Q4 calendar year '21. The annual benchmark TC/RC of calendar year '22 settled at $0.167 per pound, which is an improvement of around 9% over calendar year '21. During Q3 FY '22, disruption at one large Peruvian mine, Las Bambas, on account of some local community issues has led to tightness in the spot market. However, there was no major impact on spot TC/RC as demand for copper at the spot rates by the smelters was relatively low as they were focusing on the final settlement price at the annual benchmark negotiation. The spot TC/RC during the quarter was around $0.157 per pound compared to $0.146 per pound during Q3 FY '21. Spot TC/RCs are now expected to improve from current levels during the second half of calendar year 2022 as a couple of new mines are expected to be commissioned in this period resulting in additional concentrate supplies in the market. Coming to Slide 21. In Q3 FY '22, the overall domestic copper market declined by 2% year-on-year at 162 Kt on account of low demand in segments like B&C, railways, transformers, consumer durables, et cetera. Imports, too, declined by 36% year-on-year. On a sequential basis, the domestic copper demand was almost flat while imports declined by 12%. The trend of operational and financial performance for each of our business segments this quarter and that of the corresponding period of last year are covered in further slides and annexures in this presentation. But let me now conclude today's presentation with our key focus areas on Slide 30. Our focus on cost optimization and integration has helped the company to deliver a consistent performance over the quarter despite input costs and inflationary challenges. With a focus on stakeholder value enhancement at the core, Hindalco continues to focus on profitable growth through its investments in organic expansion in the stable and predictable downstream businesses in India and Novelis. Our recent acquisitions in Copper and Aluminum, both in value-added segments in India, is also helping us grow in line with our long-term goals. Hindalco's product mix diversification continues to help in enriching its product portfolio by increasing the share of high-end value-added products in the overall product mix to strengthen its position as the world's largest aluminum downstream company. Hindalco continues to move towards its ESG 2050 commitment. We have consistently been positioned at the top in the aluminum segment at the DJSI Index and have been awarded the Gold Class distinction in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook of 2022 as well. These are leading examples of our commitment of making ESG an integral way of our business while we strive to become the most sustainable company in the world. Lastly and most importantly, Hindalco, on the basis of a strong balance sheet, is now ready to embark on the next phase of organic growth. The consolidated net leverage is well below 2 at 1.62 as to December 21, 2021. Thank you very much for your attention, and the forum is now open for any questions you may have.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Anuj Singla from Bank of America.

So Mr. Pai, my first question is on your last line. You are now deleveraged to an extent where you are comfortable with the new organic growth opportunities. So if I were to juxtapose that with the high aluminum prices, $3,000-plus, which was the level which we had indicated a couple of quarters back for a new smelter, should we be expecting a new smelter on the upstream aluminum side in India? And secondly, if not that, what are the other kind of segments you will be looking at for pursuing the growth opportunities?

Yes, Anuj. So I think that we have announced both in Novelis and in Hindalco, whether it is the Silvassa extrusion facility, the INR 3,000 crore FRP expansion in Sambalpur, and I think now you'll be seeing the next announcement that's coming out will be a PLI linked on aluminum fins and in group copper tubes that we'll be announcing in India soon. And I think that just taking your question and going forward, we are looking at further expansion of alumina because we think that, that is also going to be fairly remunerated going forward. And as far as the smelter expansion goes, we are actively considering brownfield expansions but looking at energy sources that can help us reduce the carbon footprint. And today, in India, those energy alternatives are available. So long story short, I think that over the next 6 to 8 months, both from Novelis and Hindalco in India, you will be seeing a number of organic CapEx project announcements that are going to come. As you said, we think that we are now past that deleveraging stage. I have to add that in India, we still have the INR 6,000 crores of bond that we told you we'll repay, which will then complete the India sort of deleveraging story as well. Novelis at 2.3 is at a very comfortable position, we had set 2.5. So I think that this year, the cash generation was a little bit lower because of working capital blocks with the high LME. But next year, that cash will now come, and we will be quite generating quite a lot of cash. So we will be very actively looking to announce more organic projects. So fairly long, but I anticipate this is a question many will ask.

Sir, second question is on the coal sourcing and the availability in India. So can you talk about what kind of cost escalation we should be anticipating in aluminum in 4Q? And what is the coal situation in India? And the 5.35 million coal linkage renewal, has it happened at the same terms? Or there is some higher premium we will be paying to Coal India for this renewal?

So starting from the latter part, the 5.3 million actually came at a slightly better price than our existing linkage. So that's the first question. The second is the total cost of production escalation Q3 to Q2 was 7.5%. To be fair to say in that 7.5% cost inflation, coal did not play a major role. It was largely caustic, carbon that played a more higher role. We had a lot of coal inventory, that means we didn't have to hit the spot market a lot. So we managed to keep that cost inflation compared to some of our competitors at much lower levels at 7.5%. I think that some of the coal inflation will now come in, in Q4 because the supply of coal was very much diverted towards the IPPs and we had to buy some on the auction. So my guidance for cost increase Q4 to Q3 is going to be another 9.5%.

The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Congratulations on another great set of results. First question, just continuing on the previous commentary on the brownfield smelter expansion of aluminum, so if I understood correctly, are we now evaluating or actively considering more smelter brownfield expansion, given that we have some better clarity on the alternate source of power other than coal? Is that the right understanding? And is that? I mean, what could be specific size in terms of CapEx? And given brownfield, any further details in terms of timeline, if you could share?

So look, I cannot go much. I mean, I have already sort of said that we are evaluating. I mean, we had always said that both in Aditya and Mahan, we have sufficient land, water and all the other things. So we are evaluating that. As I said, the largest part of the evaluation is around the energy source. So for example, in Aditya, we'll soon be connected to the 400 kV grid, which allows us now, as you know, a lot of people are providing 80%, 85% renewable power on the national grid. So I think give us some time there because the CapEx and all that will get back. We are very concerned on still trying to meet our energy carbon reduction targets at the same time. So please bear with us for another quarter or so when we finish our evaluation.

Understood. No, I got it. Second one is, is it possible to share our hedge position and outlook on the aluminum?

So I think that compared to last quarter, the only thing that we have done now is we have added for next year another 60 Kt at an average of $3,000 a ton. So since we last talked, we felt that $3,000 was a good level. So we locked in another 60 Kt. So the total hedge position of FY '23 now is 28% at $2,360, the last 60 Kt, which we added at $3,000 a ton.

Understood. And just one last question on the value-added mix on the Indian aluminum business, we are still locking 80, 90 Kt a quarter. We have done some inorganic growth and also we are spending on the organic front. So over the next 2, 3 years, when do we see a meaningful increase in this volume run rate?

So Sumangal, let me give you the exact numbers. Silvassa will add 30, 35 Kt of extrusion. Kuppam is, as we have taken over, has added 15 Kt of extrusion. The Sambalpur expansion will add 170 Kt of rolled products. So those are already within the announced. Now the aluminum fin that we'll announce will be another 20 Kt. So we are steadily heading towards that 600 Kt, if you remember, I have been always talking about. So many of those projects, now CapEx-approved, statutory clearances. Silvassa, by the way, the first press should be commissioned by December of this financial year.

Understood. And what should we expect in terms of margin or profitability delta from these value additions, maybe around $150, $200? Is that a broad range?

Yes, I think more towards $200. And I think that we will probably be starting to break out the downstream EBITDA probably from Q1 of next year, Sumangal.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Pinakin Parekh from JPMorgan.

Sir, my first question goes back to the smelter. Now over the past few quarters, Hindalco management has been consistent about not wanting to focus on upstream aluminum and not wanting to add smelters. Even in fact, the last Capital Allocation Day, management clarified that all the capacity additions and CapEx would be in downstream in India versus Novelis. Now while you did mention about renewable energy and everything, ultimately the smelter economics would be a function of LME prices. So what has changed for management to be open to considering a smelter addition, even though if it's not decided yet? Because the issue is that by the time the company starts working on a project, even if it's a brownfield expansion, it could easily take 3 years for the project to be fully up and running, and we don't know what happens to aluminum prices after then.

So a fair question, Pinakin. I think the real issue that we have seen over the last year is that the demand for aluminum, because of its various uses from a sustainability angle, which is electrification, electric vehicles, packaging, all that continues to grow, whereas the supply side is constrained. So we don't see a lot of new capacity that's going to come in, whereas the demand is going to continue to grow. So I think that most of the people now are going to look at -- and the problem of primary aluminum smelting is it's energy-intensive, and hence, you have to be careful of the energy source. So why we are considering is because we believe that there is -- the LME has got strength over the next 5 years. I don't know whether it will stay about $3,000 for the 5 years, but it's certainly going to stay at a reasonably good level because demand is strong and supply is going to remain constrained. So that's why we are considering it. And I would again try to remind you of the sequence in which I answered. Most of our CapEx we are announcing are all downstream. Then I talked about alumina and then I talked about smelter, Pinakin, so just for the record.

Any other question, Mr. Parekh?

Yes. Just to clarify at this point in terms of the smelter, I mean, we understand that management has not finalized anything. But between the two variables, which will go into the decision-making process: one is the aluminum price outlook, which as you now believe is very strong; and the second is the energy source. Now if the energy source non-coal is not available, would it mean that the smelter expansion will not be considered even if it's a high LME aluminum price environment?

So Pinakin, I am considering it because I have got offers for non-coal energy. So it's not a "variable" anymore. The point that we are looking at now is how will it work? What is the landed price? Because sometimes it has to be wheeled from outside the state. So it's not a question of if there is no coal or not, we have firm offers for energy to be delivered at 85% renewable in front of us. I think you have seen that in the market, a lot of players are providing that. So they balance it out with about 15% thermal. And with our installed capacity of power, which means that I'm not adding any more new carbon, I could be able to balance and do brownfield expansion.

Understood, makes sense. And sir, last point, just being that you mentioned that 60 Kt of hedging has been done on $3,000 aluminum, now sir, given that where prices are and given that 1.3 million ton portfolio and only 28% volume being hedged, why would the company not consider more volumes to hedge at $3,000? Does management believe that aluminum prices should even rally further from here over the course of the next 12 months?

So two points there. I think that, first of all, Pinakin, the aluminum curve is in a huge backwardation. For us to get the 60 Kt at $3,000, the aluminum had to cross that $3,200 for us to get $3,000 because of the backwardation. And in fact, if you go to FY '24, I think yesterday, we did about 6,000 tons with small amount to get $3,000 was very difficult. So the curve is in a huge backwardation. That's first. The second thing is, yes, in the next 3 to 6 months, aluminum prices could go higher because of various reasons, one being geopolitics, which is happening in Europe, as well as very constrained aluminum in China. So yes, it could go higher. So that's why we are -- we have put ourselves that we need to get at least $3,000 before we look at it. And we'd rather keep it a little bit open now because when you are in a backwardation curve, then every quarter itself is a good -- you don't need to overexpose yourself.

The next question is from the line of Prashanth Kumar Kota from Dolat Capital.

And congratulations for a good set of results across the board. Sir, my question is regarding the [ TERI ] carbon -- energy decarbonization story. To better express myself, I'll give it -- I'll ask my question a small example -- with a small example. Sir, there's a housing colony, where there are two families, Family I and Family W. Family I is agriculture or has historically been in agriculture. Now they have five sons, who have all grown up. One is into banking, one is into IT, one is into small-scale enterprise, one is in garments, small garment exporting like that. And with a lot of struggle, just now they bought a secondhand car for a family car, which is probably more polluting. In the same neighborhood, there's Family W, which since 1960, they run a huge industry. They also had a huge rail business in the transportation business. They generated a lot of emissions over the last 50, 60 years. But they've become very, very rich now. Since it's the same community, same neighborhood, now W says to I, "We are very rich. Our tolerance to any kind of pollution is very low. So you better not buy that -- you better scrap your old car and buy a INR 1 crore Tesla EV or something." And sir, it's being forced upon Family I. So now coming back to the larger [indiscernible], sir, Family I is India, W is the West and the housing colony is Earth. Sir, we have just started in India as a whole and it's even -- the aluminum sector in India, we have just started to make some money. We are just starting to move out of that poverty. And still, we have so many [indiscernible], et cetera. And livelihood is still a big thing in there. So should we be bogged down by the demands of the West? [indiscernible] volume 1960 and we have just started to pollute. So should we not [indiscernible]

No, I understand what you're trying to say. And I understand the point that maybe -- but you see the problem is that Hindalco is a large multinational. 50% of our metal gets exported to international countries and international companies, so I don't think -- and by the way, the positioning of Hindalco and its subsidiary, Novelis, which is more than 60% of the combined company, in the international world is very -- from a sustainability angle, is very important. So I get what you're saying. And that's why I think that some of our Indian competitors, who don't have such compulsions, have already announced large smelter expansion. So it's not that in India, some people will not do it, though I personally believe that it doesn't matter whether you are rich or poor, I think that environment is something that all of us should be concerned about. But let's forget that philosophical thing. I think for Hindalco, we are one of the largest and most reputed aluminum companies in the world now with international customers, international shareholders. And hence, our sustainability positioning is important. And we have made commitments on that we will get to net carbon by 2050. So I think that we have to stand by the commitments we make.

Understood, sir. Sir, just now from an India perspective, sir, our neighbor, rich neighbor is having 10x our capacity. And if you are restricted by this passport, pollution passport, if you have to, where will we -- so how will we grow, sir? So how will our sector -- how will our country make room for growth? And how will -- [indiscernible], let's say, they give us a 0 cost 60-year loan, yes, we will take care of all the -- whatever it is. But I don't think...

You should just -- that's why I watch what Pinakin was asking, our smelter expansion if we can pull it off, which I'm fairly confident with 85% renewable power, that will set the direction. It can be done.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Indrajit from CLSA.

Again, going back to the growth outlook, between aluminum and alumina, how do we see the tightness of the market? Because as you mentioned, you would first consider alumina, and we are even in a long alumina right now. So would we be comfortable exporting or selling out large quantities of alumina initially, maybe next 2, 3, 4 years, and then when our capacities of aluminum comes up, then we'll utilize that? So how should we look at overall...

Yes. Actually, that is the right sequence you have said. We think that with our bauxite capacity, and what we get now in the next mine in Orissa, we can get fairly quickly with not a lot of CapEx, another 1 million tons capacity set up. There are aluminum producers in the Middle East, who will happily sign an index-based pricing for as much as we want to give them on this alumina. So we -- you're right, we would want to do that alumina and then let the aluminum maybe catch up, yes.

And this will all be at Utkal only, right, the entire batch?

Well, it will be in Orissa. It will be in that area. Need not be from that same Utkal because Utkal is now already at 2 million tons capacity. There are more and more mines that are going to come up in that part of Orissa.

Sure. And if I may ask a couple of housekeeping questions, what was the alumina sales this quarter and the working capital block and CapEx for 9 months for consol, if you can help with the number?

So the alumina sales for the third quarter was 100 Kt. And in Q4, we are planning to sell 150 Kt. And your second question was what is the working capital block in the first 9 months, is it?

Yes. At consol level, yes, working capital and CapEx amount for the first 9 months consol.

We'll give you separately for India and Novelis. You can just add that up. In India, we have seen for the first 9 months about INR 2,400 crores or so in terms of working capital block. It does vary quarter-by-quarter because, frankly, in the copper business, concentrate arrival sometimes gets delayed or sometimes get early, so it does change based on that. Aluminum working capital, by and large, goes along with the cost increases and so on. But I can assure you that quantity-wise, I don't think we've blocked unnecessarily any working capital anywhere. So primarily, any working capital changes reflect the rate changes that take place. On the CapEx side, this year has been a little slow in terms of cash outflow. We have spent about INR 1,000 crores in India on CapEx so far. But I think we intend to catch up in the last quarter because some payments are due in the last quarter. The total guidance for the year will be not more than INR 2,000 crores for this year.

Yes, it's actually a little bit disappointing. I think even on the Novelis call, some of their CapEx got delayed. And in India, too, because of COVID and trying to get requisite clearances, the CapEx that we wanted to spend, we have not been able to. But we think that next year, we should be having a very strong CapEx year.

The next question is from the line of Amit Dixit from Edelweiss.

Congratulations for the good performance. My first question is on coal sourcing mix. So what was the sourcing mix in Q3? And how is it going to change in Q4, if you can group them in Coal India versus your own mine and imports, that kind of bucket?

Yes. So 60% was linkage, 26% was e-auction, 9% was our own mines and import was about 4%.

Okay. And how is that going to change?

We hope that the linkage percentage will go up. Because they diverted a lot of the linkage coal to the power plant. In the month of January, the diversion was still there. We are told after 15 February, we will get more of our linkage. So I hope it will -- at least in the second half of this quarter and in quarter 1 of next year, the linkage percentage should go up.

The second question is on your smelter again. So are you only open to setting up the smelter on brownfield expansion in India and not looking at greenfield, let us say, smelter and where the renewable sources are available or at least the lesser carbon footprint sources are available, for instance, in Middle East? Are you open to that option?

Not really. I think the Middle East, they may have gas, by the way. And gas is not -- of course, the carbon footprint is lower than coal, but it is not 0. So if you look at DUBAL, EMAL, they're also struggling, so -- and they have no bauxite there. Saudi has a little bit, but the Middle East doesn't have bauxite. So I don't think we'll be interested in looking at a greenfield smelter anywhere outside of India, no.

The next question is from the line of Vishal Chandak from Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Continuing with this question on smelter, just a couple of thoughts I had. First of all, you highlighted that the aluminum is now under backwardation, and for FY '24, even getting 6,000 tons is getting difficult worth $3,000. And at the same time, you are saying that the aluminum outlook looks very promising on the back of issues, which could be temporary, which could be permanent, we don't know. For example, the Russia, Ukraine, there could be a pullback so the energy crisis could actually go down. China economy slowdown can actually pull them back into production. And whatever we are seeing right now over the last 6 to 9 months can actually unwind over the next 3 to 6 months very quickly. So in that light, because quarter-on-quarter, you have been highlighting that simply because 1 year is a good year, we will not commit to next 3 years. And we look -- it is just a U-turn. So how do we kind of look at this going forward?

First, again, I want to tell you, when I talk about the CapEx that came to this at the end, then I said I'm evaluating it. So it's not a U-turn. All my announced CapExes are all downstream. But I think that it is -- it makes sense for me to at least evaluate the economics. And I -- as I told to Pinakin's question, I don't think that just the Ukraine thing sorting itself after, the production will largely increase. Because China has been very clear on its ESG commitments, and it's not increasing capacity. So people are saying that China will never produce more than 40 million tons of aluminum. And in fact, people are actually saying China will go into deficit. So I don't think that in the longer term, there is going to be new supply coming in that easily. So there could be strength in aluminum for the next few years and which is why I think that we should evaluate it. I don't want to give the impression on this call that we have decided to do a smelter expansion, not really. We are evaluating it, whereas the downstream projects are being rolled out as we speak.

Sir, because my point was more from a China perspective. 2 days ago, China rolled back the peak emission deadline for steel industry from 2025 to 2030. So given the slowing economy, so they gave them a 5-year breather. That means steel production in China should essentially move up. If we see something like this on an aluminum front, the whole cases of aluminum being a scarce commodity and the pricing should move up falls. But I understand you are still on the drawing board stage. So the second question was how about looking at smelters in places where you have renewable or hybrid power, et cetera, like Scandinavian countries or having alumina over here and then smelting over there? Does that as an option or doing smelting under Novelis, where cash flows are really very strong? Was that also an option being discussed?

No, not with Novelis. And by the way, just take a look at the EBITDA per ton of Norsk Hydro even now with $3,000 LME prices. So yes, they have hydro power that is cheap, but every other thing costs 5x more. So I don't think if you walk in today, you are going to get a new power agreement at those prices. The reality of Iceland, Norway and all is that there are no new smelter projects being announced there. Why? If they have excess hydro power and they're green, why is not Hydro not announcing any expansion? They are a Norwegian company. Because they don't have more hydro. That was a historical thing that they had. Number two, there are various ESG studies that have come out that if you put new hydro capacity by damming or something, you actually create more environmental damage. So I do not think you're going to get new hydropower being installed that easily as well.

Makes sense.

I think that just for the questioning, guys, don't go down the smelter change so much. We are just evaluating it.

The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec Capital.

Sir, my first question is from a unit economics standpoint, you indicated what the sourcing for coal was. Possible to indicate how much would it constitute on a rupees per [indiscernible]

No, we don't give out that number. We think that's a competitive advantage. We give you the overall COP increase percentage. So as I said, us grew by 7.5% Q3 -- Q2 to Q3.

Sure. Sir, the reason I asked this is I wanted to ask you the second question, which was linked to the first one, wherein you indicated that we are looking at alternative sources of energy and 85% renewable is something which can be actually tied up. So it is great that we are moving in the right direction from an ESG standpoint. I'm just trying to understand from a unit cost economics point of view, how much incremental cost we'll have to incur to actually [indiscernible]

So that's exactly the point that we are looking at and working with the government. But fair to say, if you look at our solar installations, which we crossed 100 megawatts already, Aditya and Mahan, both have 35, 35 megawatts. There, the cost of power is much lower than thermal as well. Now the problem is the wheeling and cross-subsidy charges that the state electricity grids put on, which is why my answer said that once we can get on to the national grid, and if you take the benefits of green energy, meaning we don't have to buy RECs and all that, we think an economic case can be made, which is what we are evaluating.

Okay. Sir, earlier, you had indicated on pump hydro and also possibility to have possibly switch on to gas. And there were negotiations which are going on with the government. Any update over here, sir?

So we think that a couple of things have happened. The gas pipeline in Sambalpur should be ready by the end of this calendar year, somewhere around December, because it also got delayed because of COVID. But the problem with gas now is that because of what has happened in Europe, et cetera, gas prices have gone through the roof. And if you remember what I told you before, we need gas landed at about $5 an MMBtu, whereas today, it's running at $15 to $18 an MMBtu. So economically, it makes no sense right now.

And sir, the pump hydro?

Pump hydro can be quite cheap. In fact, it is as cheap as solar. There, the installed capacity is in Andhra. They're talking about new projects in Madhya Pradesh, et cetera. If it crosses a straight boundary, then the billing charges, et cetera, make the price a little bit too high.

Okay. Sir, the reason I asked is I think you had indicated earlier that we were looking at 200 megawatts of pump hydro and you had indicated [indiscernible] as well as the company that we are working with. Curious on that, any update?

So we continue to work. There are other people now also coming into the market. There are a lot of players today who are trying to provide a renewable power -- a majority renewable power mix on a high PLF basis. So we are evaluating with a lot of them. So we'll probably do some pilots in the near future.

And sir, you mused about hydrogen in the initial commentary. Any thoughts on why? What is the timeline that you are looking at [indiscernible]

We were doing a couple of pilot projects on carbon capture and utilization as well as hydrogen. So those are pilot projects at this stage. We are more focused on the carbon capture, by the way. Because if you can actually make that successful, then coal becomes very much usable. So the carbon capture and utilization is where we are trying to really focus on.

Sir, would it be possible for you to comment on the OpEx over the year? To my understanding, you had said that there was $40, $50 per ton of carbon, which is quite high. Is that a broad number that one has to look at it? Or are you looking at economics which is actually better than that?

I think that the number you're talking about was in the carbon capture and storage. It was around $40, $50. Yes, now actually, what we're looking at is after capturing the carbon, whether the byproduct can be sold in a profitable way. That can change the economics rather than sequestration, if you can use that carbon.

Okay. And sir, last question is hypothetically if we had to go for a smelter, is there some different technology possible on the [ PCB ] side, something like [ IPCC ], which can replace the [indiscernible] actually makes more sense from a carbon intensity standpoint? Is this something that we are looking exploring at?

We are certainly looking at the latest technology if we do anything, yes.

The next question is from the line of Bhavin Chheda from Enam Holdings.

Question on the India CapEx, you mentioned you spent INR 1,000 crores in first 9 months. Is this including maintenance CapEx? Because I believe your maintenance CapEx run rate is roughly around that number, which means you have not spent anything on growth CapEx.

So the growth CapEx part, that's why most of the orders are going out now. So we'll do that catch-up mostly in Q4. So we are hoping to hit about INR 2,000 crores by March.

Okay. That's including growth plus maintenance, India CapEx is about roughly around INR 2,000-odd crores?

That is -- yes, if you remember our original guidance, we were planning to spend INR 2,700 crores this year. But the...

The CapEx number in the capital allocation framework and you have to...

Yes. So we had April, May, June, which was one wave, then we had November, December, another wave. So it's not been easy. A lot of public -- the Sambalpur public hearing and clearance, which we thought will be done by April, May is now going to happen in this March. So a lot of delays have come in, unfortunately.

Sir, second question on the brownfield expansion of smelter. So when you consider this decision, you consider the renewable source of energy for this incremental brownfield? Or are you thinking of the -- eventually, the total smelter has to be run on a renewable energy over next 15-odd years, so you have to transition it? So how is the internal IRR you think when eventually you decide on this brownfield expansion?

No, I think any brownfield will be looked at from an IRR perspective on its own merits. It won't be mixed up with the existing thing, especially when it comes to the power source. As I said, we already have land. We already have water. We have already got logistics. We have -- all the rest is sort of a positive. But when it comes to the energy source, it will be looked at on its own merits. As one of your colleagues asked, it will be based on what is the price of power that we can afford.

Sure. And then last one, sir, on the coal sourcing mix, what is the actual linkage you're supposed to receive versus 60% you got in this quarter?

It should be roughly 75% linkage if we got everything that we are supposed to get. By the way, you never -- just so that you know, we never get 100%. But we normally used to get around 90%. That percentage now has officially gone to 75% because they are diverting the coal to IPPs.

The next question is from the line of Samuel Chen from AllianceBernstein.

I promise I won't ask another smelter question. So just a couple of quick ones. That's right. A couple of quick ones. You mentioned about the eventual goal of getting to about 600,000 tons for the downstream aluminum in India. I think if my rough calculation was 320,000 annually right now, maybe a little more than that. And then you bought 15,000 tons of hydro. Can you kind of lay out like what's the pace? Is this going to take about 2 years, 3 years to get to 600,000 tons? If you can give me a timeline, that would be great.

Yes. I think your 320,000 number is right. I think that you will -- we will get to that 600,000 in 3 to 4 years. Because the Sambalpur is 170...

Even, right?

Sorry?

That's more or less kind of even pace, right? So that's about 280,000 over 4 years. So we're looking about 60,000, 70,000 coming up every year. Is that the pace?

No. When the Sambalpur expansion happens, that's 170 Kt, which we should be able to commission probably within the year. So you're going to see a sharp jump when that project commissions.

Okay. All right. That is very helpful. My second question is also very simple. Vodafone Idea is continuously looking for money. I know it's part of the group, and you guys own about 2.6%. Can I assume that you guys will automatically subscribe to that -- to your 2.6%?

No. First, our Chairman, I think, has publicly been on record that Hindalco will not be investing in Idea anymore. Share has already got diluted, right, when the government took over.

So we did not participate in the recent thing.

Yes.

And therefore, we are even now at...

1.9%.

1.9% or something.

Yes. So we have already gone down from 2.6% to 1.9% after the government increased its stake, which we did not participate.

Okay. Got it. And I'm assuming you wouldn't be looking to sell at the current price level. So you're just going to leave the stake the way it is.

Yes, we'll just leave it.

Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Satish Pai for closing comments.

Yes. Thank you, everyone, for your attention. I think my only closing remark is that we are mindset-wise now moved from a deleveraging focus because we think now we are strong on the balance sheet and now we will be focused on growth projects going over. So that is both in Novelis and in Hindalco, the focus going forward will be on growth now. So with that, I thank you for your attention. Bye.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, with this, we conclude today's conference call. If you have any unanswered questions, please reach out to the Investor Relations team. On behalf of Hindalco Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.