Information Services Group, Inc. (III) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

July 13, 2023

NASDAQ US Information Technology IT Services special 57 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Apurva Prasad

analyst
#1

Good morning, good afternoon or good evening to everyone on this second quarter 2023 ISG Global Index Call. I'm Apurva Prasad of HDFC Securities. And I thank -- I'd like to thank the team at ISG for their valued work on the industry and for asking us at HDFC to introduce this call today. ISG has been hosting these index calls in the managed services and as-a-service markets for nearly 20 years. ISG works with both enterprise buyers and service providers. So they offer unique insights to key industry trends. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Stanton Jones, a distinguished analyst at ISG.

Stanton Jones

executive
#2

Apurva, and hi, everyone. With me today is Steve Hall, Partner and President of ISG EMEA; Kathy Rudy, Chief Data and Analytics Officer; and Namratha Dharshan, Chief Business Leader for ISG India. We have over 1,000 service providers, investors and, of course, our enterprise clients registered for the call today. So let's jump right into our big 3 thoughts from the quarter. Steve, over to you.

Steven Hall

executive
#3

Great. Thanks, Stanton. So big 3 thoughts. Number one, huge. Managed services ACV surpasses $10 billion for the first time ever, really driven by record results in both IT outsourcing and the EMEA markets. We continue to see really strong demand for cost optimization, both in the awards ISG's advising and in the broader market data we're analyzing. The strength in the managed service market is running contrary to the some of the current forecasts from the global service providers. We continue to see weakness in project-based work that managed services long-term contracts with an ACV greater than $5 million, really remain robust. And we'll talk about this more later in the call. Number two, we've seen a significant rise in global capability centers over the last several quarters. Namratha is going to talk about this, but historically, captive operations have really been focused on labor arbitrage to deliver internal support services. That's really changing. Enterprises are increasingly using captives to build internal capabilities, especially in areas like product engineering. And number three, you guessed it, my favorite topic, generative AI. We're really starting to see the impact of generative AI on solutions and service provider investments. Kathy is going to have a whole section on this later, but we expect to see significant productivity improvements and investments in AI solutions as the market evolves. So let's take a look at the global broader market. The combined market is facing challenges and experiencing a steady decline in value. From its peak at over $26 billion in the first quarter of 2022, it's fallen below $23 billion. In fact, this quarter marked the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline with a 9% drop compared to the previous year. The decline is primarily due to the decelerated demand for cloud services compared to the pandemic period. We should see the pandemic effect eased to provide easier compares, though, in the coming quarters. So looking at the first half of 2023, the combined markets experienced a significant decline of 9.5% compared to the same period last year. This was the lowest first half performance since we added the as-a-service market in 2015. Most of the decline, though, was associated with the weakness of hyperscalers in both the U.S. and China. Positive note, managed services shown remarkable resiliency really against a lot of market fluctuations. Second quarter '23 reached an all-time high, surpassing $10 billion quarterly ACV for the first time ever. Year-over-year, managed services ACV increased by 6%, and it's maintained positive year-over-year growth in 10 out of the 11 quarters. Cost optimization, though, continues to be the major driver in the market. The global ACV for renewals and extensions was flat quarter-over-quarter but up 24% year-to-date and represented over 40% of the managed services ACV. Again, Stanton is going to provide some details on this later in the call. So during the first half of 2023, the managed services segment saw ACV of $19.9 billion and that was up 3.6% versus the first half of 2022. We also saw over 1,400 deals in the broader market, and that is up 2% over the first half. Both numbers, the ACV and the first half, were record-setting performances. On that deal activity, 10 of them were mega deals, representing over $1.7 billion of ACV. Again, there really is a disparity between the guidance provided by the global GSIs on their earnings reports and the actual spend in managed services. While the GSIs have reported a slowdown in discretionary spend categories, like product engineering, app development, we're actually seeing an increase in managed services deals with strong demand. This suggests that the impact on the overall [ tech spend ] slowdown is more pronounced for those GSIs with a portfolio heavily focused on project or discretionary base work. So if we jump over to the as-a-service market, it's really had some notable challenges. Its ACV has steadily declined since peaking above $16 billion in the first quarter of 2022, and it's reached its lowest level really since the second quarter of 2021. This quarter marked the third consecutive quarterly decline with an 18% year-over-year drop. In fact, this was the worst year-over-year decline we've seen since the tracking of this market began in 2015. So to summarize, combined market declined quarter-over-quarter while managed services showed really positive year-over-year growth and record-breaking performances in terms of ACV and contract awards. So let's move on to the second part of the quarter. Namratha, what is happening with the global capability centers?

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#4

Thank you, Steve. In the last 12 months, ISG has seen a significant increase in the discussions around the development of captive operations. Historically, as you mentioned, captive operations have focused on using labor arbitrage, especially on non-revenue-generating internal services in the areas like IT, HR and finance. However, over time, with all the changes in the technology requirements, the skill developments, captives have evolved to be more strategic centers like global engineering centers or innovation centers or even center of -- centers of excellence. India, one of the most popular captive destinations has nearly 1,600 global captive centers and has grown 60% since the financial year of 2015. Now let's look at it from an enterprise angle. Cost clearly plays a vital role in driving captive growth. And our data on cost optimization has shown that more than 70% of the organizations state that reducing cost is important for their organization's strategic direction. But there are also other developing factors in addition to costs that are driving this increased demand for captives. Firstly, the digital transformation priorities continue to remain high. The demand for talent and specific skills in the areas of product engineering and customer experience remain. For example, in the recently announced Danske Bank and Infosys deal that was advised by ISG, Danske Bank is looking to accelerate its digital agenda by modernizing technology infrastructure and enabling better customer experiences. Secondly, companies are exploring newer markets for multiple reasons: talent acquisition, achieving cost optimization goals at scale and also to lead its concentration in 1 location. Thirdly, as these centers emerge as strategic centers, they're fostering more global roles, and that's helping companies address their diversity and inclusion strategy. Now on the provider side, growth in captives opens up multiple opportunities. One to, of course, collaborate with enterprises to help and build captives along with their location strategy and talent recruitment. Secondly, to implement digital solutions and to help then centers of excellence. And in some cases, where enterprises are struggling to scale operational efficiencies or underperforming functions, service providers also have an opportunity to take over such captives to help the enterprises. Like we mentioned earlier, we believe much of this recent demand for captive centers is driven by more focus on building products and improving CX. Now we are increasingly seeing that the enterprises want to retain these skills, and we expect this demand to continue. But it's also important to recognize the fact that demand for talent is even more crucial now but -- because both enterprises and service providers will likely to tap into the same talent pool. For instance, let's take the generative AI, the new talk of the town, and talent hunt in this space will significantly increase. On that note, Kathy, let me hand it over to you for this happening topic.

Kathy Rudy

executive
#5

Thanks, Namratha. We've received questions from client service providers, investors about generative AI, which is different from AI and that you can not only learn judge and predict and repeat actions, but digest, suggest, create and recreate, which is in an instant has opened a whole new world of transformational possibilities. Enterprise clients want to know how to get started and what are common use cases for generative AI in their industry. Providers are asking, what are clients asking for? Do our offerings resonate in the market? And investors are asking, how would this change the sector? And how will it create new markets? And how will it affect pricing and business models? We're seeing some great use cases in the market, and we're on the way. A few examples are in e-commerce, such as Shopify using generative AI to generate product descriptions and content; pharma with Navidea who released a drug discovery cloud service to advance and speed up drug discovery, protein engineering and research; and Bloomberg, launching a $50 billion parameter model to support financial tasks using natural language processing. Lastly, we expect to see entertainment and media generation using AI to create content. Service providers have also announced generative AI offerings. Cognizant launched Neuro to help companies responsibly deploy Generative AI. TCS created a partnership with Google, leveraging its PaLM large language model, and HCL announced partnerships with Microsoft focused on Azure open AI services. We shift to see what impacts we're seeing in the market as we advise our clients. Honestly, nothing concrete yet. But we are hearing promises of significant productivity improvements, upwards of 50%, which is exciting. But keep in mind, these are just promises, and we're not seeing any impact in proposals, business cases or pricing yet. Examples of where we expect to see significant productivity improvements are in application development and maintenance, leveraging tools such as GitHub Copilot, Amazon CodeWhisperer to develop functionality faster. And in IT operations, for faster resolution on issues and problems and in contact centers integrating contextual and conversational conversations and smart agent assistance. However, there are still issues of data usage, data security and privacy, near and dear to my heart, that haven't been addressed at scale that will impact widespread rollout. Generative AI technology poised -- is poised to make a large impact on the market, and my team and I are closely tracking this space, and we'll continue to provide insights on future index calls. Let's jump back to our demand analysis. Stanton, back over to you.

Stanton Jones

executive
#6

Thanks, Kathy. So as we typically do at the midpoint of the year, we're going to focus most of this next analysis on the half year results. So let's start with IT outsourcing or ITO. It had its best first half ever with $14.6 billion of ACV. And as you can see here, that's up 13% versus the first half of 2022. And we also set a record for the number of awards in the first half. There were over 1,000 ITO awards over 5 million of ACV. And as we've discussed at length over the past year or so, applications outsourcing continues to be very strong. There was almost $10 billion of apps ACV awarded in the first half, and that's up 22%. And just for some perspective here, AVM was almost 70% of the total ITO award value in the first half. Five years ago, that number was under 50%. On the other hand, infrastructure outsourcing continues to be under pressure. It's down 8% year-to-date and down 10% on its 5-year average, as enterprises continue to move more and more applications to the cloud. Okay. Let's pivot now to BPO. As you can see here, there were over $5 billion of ACV generated in the first half, and that was actually the third most BPO ACV ever generated. But unfortunately, we're comparing that to the best first half ever for BPO in the first half of 2022, and that's why it's down 16% year-to-date. And this difficult compare, of course, spilled into some of the BPO subsegments. As you can see here, industry-specific BPO generated $1.5 billion of ACV, but that was down over 30% year-to-date, again, against a record-setting 2022. And the same can be said for engineering. There was over $1 billion of ACV awarded in the first half, but that was down 7% year-to-date, and most of that decline came from the Americas. So one of the areas that we flagged on our weekly newsletter a couple of months ago was around the growth of extension and renewal ACV. There was over $4 billion of extension and renewal ACV in the first quarter and that trend continued in the second quarter with another $4 billion of ACV. So what that means is that extension and renewal ACV represented over 40% of all the ACV in the first half of 2023, the other 60% coming from new scope awards. And as Steve mentioned earlier, we think it's cost optimization that's really driving this buying behavior, basically an increased focus on extending and renewing agreements rather than buying new. And that, in turn, means it's a critical time for incumbents as enterprises are focused on using existing relationships to optimize their costs. That said, we do expect new scope to start to make a rebound in the second half of the year, given what we're seeing in our own pipeline. Okay. So let's take a look at demand on a regional level. Kathy, back over to you for an update on the Americas.

Kathy Rudy

executive
#7

Great. Thanks, Stanton. Now looking at the first half of 2023, the managed services segment in the Americas was down 3.5% versus the first half of 2022. Almost all of that decline was due to softness in the banking industry, which was down 20% year-to-date. That said, the number of mega deals at the half-year mark are elevated. Nine mega deals were awarded in the first half of 2023, and that was up 29% versus a year ago. In fact, we haven't seen this mega deal activity in the first half since 2010. Overall, the sense in the Americas is there's one foot on the gas and one foot on the brake. But we're seeing an improvement in market engagement over the last 30 days with market activity focused on, as Steve mentioned, cost optimization and sourcing for savings to protect earnings. Steve, over to you for an update on EMEA.

Steven Hall

executive
#8

Thanks, Kathy. The managed services market in EMEA performed exceptionally well this quarter, with an ACV over $4.5 billion, up 15% year-over-year. This was the largest quarterly ACV ever recorded in EMEA. There were 5 mega awards this quarter and over 280 contracts, which was an 8% increase compared to the previous year. With cost optimization top of mind, Kathy, as you said though, we saw an increase in the number of renewals and extension in the quarter. And as Stanton also mentioned earlier, extensions or renewal activity was strong in the first half. In Europe, for example, the restructuring ACV represented 44% of the total ACV and was up 34% year-to-date and up 65% from its 5-year average. We do expect the balance of new scope and restructuring to return to normal over the next several quarters. This has really given the insights that we have on our pipeline and what we see in the market from service providers as well. So in terms of regional performance, the U.K. and DACH markets stood out with notable year-to-date growth rates of 50% and 16%, respectively. The U.K. has been consistent now with 2 consecutive quarters exceeding $1 billion in ACV. Benelux and the Nordics are also up year-to-date with strong deal flow in both markets. Though down slightly quarter-over-quarter, France delivered another $1 billion of ACV in the first half of 2023. So Namratha, how about Asia Pac?

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#9

Thank you, Steve. Several trends. Managed services demand in APAC continues to be strong, as enterprises use the IT services sector to access talent and to help them optimize cost through technology modernization. And you can see that demand reflected in the results from Asia Pacific this quarter. The region generated over $1 billion in ACV, which is up 30% year-on-year. It was the sixth quarter in the last couple of years where ACV exceeded the $800 million mark, and there were 2 mega deals awarded in quarter 2. Both new scope and renewable ACV finished strong. And on a half year basis, managed services was up 47% versus first half of 2022. Most of that growth came from ANZ, India and China. Steve, I'll hand it over to you for the industry update.

Steven Hall

executive
#10

As long time listeners know, this is my favorite chart. We did update it this quarter to really reflect the first half results and there was some pullback in most verticals. But in context, this was really given the record results that we saw in the first half of 2022. First half of 2023 was the second best period on record in the managed services sector, with most of the decline that you see really coming from the Infrastructure as a Service space and the continued weakness in the IPO space. But let's take a look at 2 of the larger sectors. In the first half of the year, the BFSI vertical, which includes banking, financial services and insurance, dropped to 23% of the combined market. The sector declined 10.5% year-to-date. And as Kathy mentioned, the Americas Bank Managed Services business in banking was down 20%, while EMEA region grew by 4%. BFSI still prevents -- presents great opportunity though. It remains the largest consumer of technology across all markets and represents 30% of the managed services markets. Financial service organizations continue to struggle with legacy systems and technical debt, providing ongoing optimization and growth opportunities for SIs. The U.S. regional banking crisis also introduced uncertainty in Q2, which further delayed decision-making. The stress test, though, that were passed by the major banks reduced some of these concerns. The challenges with interest rates and potential loan defaults will continue to weigh on the market for the next several quarters. Looking at the telecom and media sector, which also roughly accounts for about 9.5% of the combined market ACV of $4.4 billion was down 20% versus first half. The managed service market was flat year-to-date, while the as-a-service declined over 11% in the first half. The telco sector continues to go through a multiyear technology-driven investment cycle, really centered around the secular trends in 5G, network automation and digital modernization to the cloud. In the near term, enterprises are under pressure as we've seen corporate restructurings, head count reductions and slowing down our projects. So with telco, continue to think about cost optimization. Now let's focus on looking at the cloud demand. Stanton, over to you.

Stanton Jones

executive
#11

Thanks, Steve. So as we've discussed on the past few calls, Infrastructure as a Service bookings continue to be under pressure. And you can see this reflected in the year-over-year ACV growth of the Big 3 hyperscalers. As you can see here, AWS, Microsoft and Google saw a first half ACV decline of 20%. Prior to this year, the Big 3 hyperscalers averaged over 50% first half growth. So to be clear, there's still a massive amount of cloud adoption and migration happening at the enterprise level. It's just that, that adoption and migration has slowed, and it slowed for a couple of reasons. Number one, much of that migration work is now focused on big, complex industry-specific applications, and those just take time to modernize. And second, we're obviously in a difficult macroeconomic climate, which means enterprises are focused on getting the most that they can from their existing public cloud relationships. The good news for the sector is that many of these large public cloud framework agreements that enterprises signed post pandemic are starting to come up for renewal. So as an example, ISG just finished advising the largest public cloud deal ever in EMEA, and we believe that there are more of these large agreements on the horizon. So like Infrastructure as a Service, Software as a Service bookings continue to be under pressure as well. Sales cycles have lengthened. There's pressure on deal sizes and a lot more scrutiny at both the CIO and CFO levels around SaaS agreements. And you can see that reflected in the SaaS results here. Our ISG SaaS basket produced $7.8 billion of ACV in the first half, and that was down 6% year-to-date. That's the lowest growth rate for the SaaS segment since we started tracking this all the way back in 2015. By app category, you can see here, collaboration is up 18% against a softer comparison from the first half of last year, while HCM is up 4% year-to-date against a much more difficult comparison. On the other hand, CRM and ERP are both down year-to-date versus the same time period last year. So in our view, the slowdown in SaaS is really about the fact that enterprises are concerned about the unpredictability in the market and are therefore just being extremely cautious with discretionary spending, as Steve mentioned. So the demand is still very much there for SaaS. But if it's not going to help the company grow revenue or improve customer experience, there's going to be a lot more scrutiny around these purchases. Okay. Now let's turn over to our leaderboard. Namratha, over to you.

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#12

Thank you, Stanton. All right. Moving on to the leader boards. As a reminder, providers are listed in alphabetical order, and positioning is based on annual contract value signed over the past 12 months. The company is new to the list are denoted with an asterisk and also a reminder that the regional leaderboards can be accessed on the ISG website. As usual, we saw very little turnover in the big 15 leaderboard. Some notable awards this quarter were large applications development and maintenance deal between Infosys and BP. A 5-year workplace and application services relationship between Cognizant and Nike. And a 5-year SAP relationship between IBM and Diageo. In the building 15, almost 1/3 of the list is new. CGI rejoined the leaderboard with a notable win at TD Bank. We're also seeing some BPO providers like [ Elite ] and Concentrix join the leaderboard. And finally, network provider, BT made its debut on the Building 15 as well. Moving to the Breakthrough 15, contact center providers, TTEC and Atento joined the group, along with Reply and TELUS International. Engineering firm, Alton Group joined the list and Persistent Systems makes its debut after recently passing $1 billion in revenue. And the Booming 15 category, German IT services provider, adesso and Swedish network provider, Eltel, also made it to the list for the first time. And with that, let's wrap our call with the forecasts. Steve, over to you.

Steven Hall

executive
#13

Well, first, congratulations to everybody that's on the leaderboard and especially those that were new or changed categories. It's a great reflection on the growth of the market. So as we reflect on the first half of 2023, the managed services segment really achieved record bookings, really demonstrating the resilience in what is a very uneven tech market right now. Continue to see record high demand in both deal flow and ACV. The late decision-making, though, is really the major challenge we faced in the managed services segment in first half. Clients focused on cost optimization, approval levels were elevated, deal cycles lengthened and discretionary work was stalled. The focus on cost optimization, though, did lead to an increase in restructuring deals with over $8 billion of restructuring ACV awarded in the first half. If we look at the SaaS market, though, enterprises are also facing cost optimization measures there. The SaaS market began declining earlier than the IS market and is expected to recover sooner and the top-performing firms in the SaaS market have capitalized on acquisitions and cross-selling to a large customer base. In contrast, though, the hyperscalers face market challenges across the board. The Big 3 grappled with macro difficulties. But you know what, as we look at it, and Kathy mentioned, I think generative AI is really going to present a promising future. Every SaaS provider is going to integrate Gen AI to their services. Every hyperscaler is going to embed into their offerings, which will increase overall cloud consumption. And I think we'll see copilots and other activities really fuel that end of the market. If we look at the macro landscape, though, there's still some factors that give right the both of caution and some optimism. Inflationary pressures remain, though we've seen inflation come down in the U.S., remain a bit stubborn in other parts of the world, but we're seeing the central banks take aggressive actions. We have tightening credit, and we continue to have an economic slowdown in both the China and the Euro zone, all of which are raising concerns. As we said, though, the U.S. economy remains strong with upper revisions in the GDP, a robust labor market, and we do see moderating inflation. While some anticipated market pullback, others believe this recessionary talk won't really materialize. And again, this incredible excitement around Gen AI is really transforming the potential labs to the positive sentiment. So managed services, we really see increased demand with a really strong pipeline for the back half of the year. Assuming that the banking sector recovers, which we fully believe it will, we're going to keep our forecast for managed services at 5% growth for the year. Given the challenges in the Infrastructure as a Service market, though, we aren't going to [ root ] downward revise our 2023 revenue forecast downward to 11.5% instead of the 15% that we were originally projecting. Well, this brings us to the end of the formal call. We'll now open it up for questions. Please type your questions in the comments on the bottom of the screen. Apurva, would you like to start with the questions?

Apurva Prasad

analyst
#14

N Absolutely. Thanks, Steve, and great presentation team. So my first question on the demand environment, it's actually multiple part here. What I'm trying to understand is, can there be a disconnect between the ACV performance? And you did refer to holding on to that 5% growth in the managed services. But can there be a disconnect between the ACV performance and the growth rate of service providers as long-term contracts are broken into multiple shorter projects due to the uncertainty? And also, there seems to be bigger leakage between bookings and project ramp. So shouldn't the leakage be lower also as the share of renewals and extensions are higher in the overall mix? So essentially, what I'm trying to get to is, what is the kind of spend that is getting prioritized by enterprises? So I know there are 2, 3 parts to this, but your thoughts here, please?

Steven Hall

executive
#15

Yes, Apurva, I think it's the core of the whole call, quite frankly. I think as we were looking through everything, there was clearly -- appear to be a disconnect between what we saw in the data the rapid growth or the strong growth within managed services and clearly, the earnings report and some of the things that have happened in the quarter. I think it comes down to a couple of things. One, as we mentioned, there was certainly delayed decision-making in the first part of the quarter. So April and May were slower. We saw it really pick up sort of in June, and that sort of had some impact on maybe even some of the deal flow in Q2, but it's certainly positive for Q3. But I think the biggest cause of the disconnect is probably the impact of discretionary spending. So throughout the first 6 months, we've really seen a pullback in discretionary spending for organizations as they really focus for cost optimization. So if you think of a managed services deal, it can even impact that because there's always a discretionary spend component, if you will, of large managed services. Think of the difference between application maintenance and application dev and the types of projects or even in the IT space, IT projects are added on. All of that was suppressed, and there was a big suppression on that. So I think we're seeing that lift. I think we're seeing that shift. Certainly, with some of the demand that we see, I would expect on the back half to see much more alignment between what we see on the ACV, TCV side and what carries through on the -- their earnings.

Apurva Prasad

analyst
#16

Got it. And just staying on the macro and the demand side, do you see any change in enterprise response to the macro with easing inflation and probably interest rates peaking, as budgets for transformation can actually be constrained in that kind of an environment, which seems to be easy. So can there be a pent-up element that could get released perhaps end 2023 as some of this deal activity of the deferred deals don't end up getting canceled and we end up seeing some resource mobilization perhaps towards the end of the year?

Steven Hall

executive
#17

Yes. I think one of the biggest challenges on the market, quite frankly, has been not knowing, right? There's been this sense that the central banks are going to respond. They've been fairly aggressive on managing inflation. But at the same time, the labor markets have been quite robust, right, which is a bit of a split of what we typically see. And I think for the first 3 to 4 months and maybe even going back 6 months of last year, we were always trying to talk ourselves into a recession a bit, which was obviously causing a lot of organizations to pull back on what they spend, hunkered down a little bit, make sure they can hit their earnings, their capabilities as they go forward. What I'm seeing is a lot of that talk is subsiding. I think there's more sense of growth, which I think is going to be positive for the tech spend, obviously, as we go forward. As Kathy mentioned, there's a lot of momentum associated with generative AI, which is adding some upward spend to the market. We're seeing that spend come in with the service -- or with the enterprise clients and service providers in the form of investments. So I think there is this overall more sense of optimism in the market as we see the back half of the year. Again, with strong demand, that's really positive, we see some of the things really breakthrough on the discretionary side. And quite frankly, as you listened to the call this morning or this afternoon, it was really focused a lot on some of the weakness in BFS. And as we've always said, BFS is about 30% of the market. We expect that to return on the second half as well. Much better results had BFS just been flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. And so we expect that to bounce back. And given the high -- the record numbers that we saw with BFS being down, gives us a little optimistic uplift, if you will, as we look at the back half.

Stanton Jones

executive
#18

Yes. Apurva, just a little bit more flavor on that on the -- Steve mentioned the BFSI impact, as you said, that's 30% of the ACV. I think it's important to keep -- kind of keep in mind what happened this quarter, a couple of things. Number one, there were quite a number of executives moving in between the banking sector that slowed decisions down as folks get to their new firm. And then we also saw a pretty significant increase in the second quarter around approval thresholds -- sorry, decrease in approval thresholds. So I think we've talked a lot about BFSI over the last year. A lot of that transformational spending happening more kind of in the financial services operations space or more in the middle office. Still very much there, it just slowed in the second quarter. We think a lot of the -- because of the executive moves and then the pull down in approval thresholds. And as Steve mentioned, we do believe that that's going to improve.

Apurva Prasad

analyst
#19

Got it. And just on, Stanton, to your point of this movement in senior leadership, this [indiscernible] that we have seen with service providers, do you think the competitive intensity for the industry can go up? And do you see impact on pricing and rate card because of these changes?

Stanton Jones

executive
#20

Yes. And just to clarify though, when I was giving you that example, I was actually talking about on the enterprise side movement in the banking execs and that kind of slowed down decision-making. But to your point, there's also a lot of movement happening on the service provider side as well. as we -- we've talked about this a lot. This is just an exceptionally competitive market with some incredibly strong executive talent at the C level, and that is moving. We see a lot of those strategies being put in place now. I would say it's too early to tell what that potential impact is on pricing and how those executive level changes could potentially impact pricing. From our perspective, I would say, we haven't seen any significant impact yet.

Apurva Prasad

analyst
#21

Got it. And on the delivery and execution side, so are the challenges on the execution lower for service providers now? So earlier, there was the talent shortage, you had higher wage inflation, higher turnover, higher demand. And now there is still talent shortage, but much lower wage inflation and as well as turnover in demand. So how does all of this stack up from an operational standpoint?

Stanton Jones

executive
#22

Yes, absolutely. I can take a stab at that, and the team can jump in with anything they want to as well. So definitely, the supply side challenges that were pretty extraordinary last year, frankly, have, on the whole, really resolved themselves. We've talked a lot about the fact that attrition has come down, as has hiring, of course, but the degree to which we were seeing those challenges with our enterprise clients in terms of their reporting back around the turnover that they're seeing on their accounts, sometimes upwards of 50%. And then, of course, the associated attrition-related challenges for service providers. I personally think that sort of first quarter and second quarter, we've kind of hit an inflection point. We've stabilized and we're sort of back to where we were pre-pandemic. So in my view, on that side, on the supply side, no news is good news.

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#23

Yes, I would agree. And I think, like Stanton mentioned, the attrition part of it is largely stabilized. But the demand for talent in specific areas, I think, will continue, particularly now with the generative AI or cybersecurity. So those are some of the in-demand kind of skills that are needed. So I think that piece will still continue where the talent hunt is going to be a bit of a challenge. But otherwise, largely from an operation standpoint, it's kind of stabilized.

Stanton Jones

executive
#24

Right. And one more thing to add to that. It just hit me, Apurva. We did talk about a few weeks ago on insider, the time lines around transition, and that can actually be one of the key areas to keep an eye on to see if the supply side challenges are getting better or getting worse because transition for our managed services award is incredibly important, right? The provider can't recognize revenue. The end client can't recognize the benefit of the agreement until transition takes place. And as we reported out a few weeks ago, we haven't seen any significant increases in transition time lines. If anything, they're starting to come back down again. So that's another indicator that, that supply side challenge is, knock on wood, past us.

Apurva Prasad

analyst
#25

Yes. Great. Good to know that. And just finally, on Steve's favorite topic on Gen AI, a couple of questions. So look, that's certainly the biggest long-term concern that we're trying to grapple with. What do you think can be the impact on the software developer productivity? And what can be the potential long term in terms of disruption of status quo versus creation of POCs and pilots and eventually new revenue streams?

Steven Hall

executive
#26

Yes. Apurva, I think that's the core question in the market right now, and it's so interesting when you read the press because everybody is an expert on this all of a sudden. There's everything from Dooms Day and Terminators and no jobs and everything else, to hey, it's just a bunch of fluff and hype and we've been doing AI for 50 years, right? But I do think we hit a transformative moment. I called that kind of November 30, 2022, Cambrian explosion with not just ChatGPT, but Gen AI in general. And what we're seeing in deals right now is really interesting because we do 3- to 5-year deals, almost all of the SIs are making bets that the value of Gen AI is going to carry through on the productivity side. So we're seeing deals form in the market with 40% to 70% productivity improvements associated with those. Now those deals haven't gone to market yet. You're still going to have to see if they go to market and what it means, but there's clearly this belief, especially on, again, the software side, customer experience, BPO that we're going to see really large improvement as we go through that. I think that's going to happen faster than what we think. And if you look at all the investments and [indiscernible] businesses, service providers are pulling in, you can see that one there. The other side, though, is I think this is a high tide, lifts all boats in it with as well. Gen AI is going to provide so many kind of opportunities that we're going to be able to see new things coming and new capabilities go forward. So if I'm a really large enterprise, I'm likely going to look at my data assets, I'm likely going to look at my value prop and say, where do I monetize my [indiscernible] large language models? How do I build and really create that, right? It's not just about consuming a Gen AI, but how do you add value with it. That's why I think the SIs, engineering firms, consulting firms are going to really take it to the next level to do that. So I think long term, it's going to be net positive growth for the industry, even as we change the underlying product deal measures underneath it. Kathy, I know you follow this. Any thoughts from you?

Kathy Rudy

executive
#27

I just want to add that I think data ownership will be the competitive advantage here. So being able to leverage your data assets in a way that drive new opportunities for your organization will give you that competitive advantage. I think there's also a talent lag right now, and people are very busy getting trained up and how to actually benefit from generative AI. And I don't want to not think about the security aspect as well. So ownership of data but also the security of that data and how it is distributed and leveraged and used is going to be really important.

Apurva Prasad

analyst
#28

Great. Thank you. Let me just hand it over back to you. Steve, Stanton, over to you.

Stanton Jones

executive
#29

Awesome. Thank you very much, Apurva. So let's jump into some of your questions. We have a mountain of questions. There's quite a few on the captive topics. So why don't we start there? So there's a couple around captive center development. Is this a new threat for service providers? Potentially what could the impact be for the product engineering provider? So let me give you a quick perspective on that, and I'll open it up to Namratha and Steve to provide some commentary there as well. So the reason we flagged this is we are seeing pretty significantly increased demand from enterprises around captive solutions. There is a lot of reasons for that. Ultimately, though, as enterprises and as technology becomes central to every company's strategy, right, increasing -- they're looking to own and retain that ability to build those products that touch end customers. And we see that manifesting itself through some of these captive centers as Namratha mentioned, primarily in India. From our perspective, that opens up a lot of opportunity for the IT services sector to help them build captive solutions, to help them actually build the products themselves, often captives will subcontract back out to the IT services sector. So there's definitely opportunity there. But at the same time, you could argue there's some threat there as large enterprises are essentially looking for the same talent that the IT services sector is looking for. I think it's still too early to tell. And for those of you that have been in this industry for a long time, this is kind of cyclical, like a lot of this captive wave has happened a couple of times. But we wanted to flag it here because we do see a pretty intense level of interest from enterprise clients around building that capability. And as Namratha said, it's not just about labor arbitrage anymore, it's more about building products. Namratha, Steve, I don't know if you guys have anything to add to that?

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#30

Yes. No, I completely agree. I think you covered it all just that it's opening up opportunities for service providers either to help set up the captives like I mentioned, or to even implement digital solutions and help set up the centers of excellence. And I think in our conversations with some of the providers, we see that this is also building -- helping in building their pipeline. So these kind of projects are also opening up those opportunities. And given the market scenario, I think it's a good opportunity for service providers to actually grow their top line as well.

Steven Hall

executive
#31

Yes. Namratha, I thought you made a good point earlier as well. I think when I think about GECs, and Stanton, you said the same, it's all of a sudden really tied to the revenue-generating side of the business. So the more we digitize, the more that really comes to the front end and the revenue side. Any organization is going to want to make sure they understand their top line. So as we have really worked through different outcome-based models or JVs, GECs are really sort of the logical evolution of some of those. And those GECs are really saying, "Hey, this is critical and core to my function, so I need to own it." And quite frankly, there's so much incredible talent, whether it's India or Eastern Europe, especially in engineering and analytics that how do we tap into that talent. And it's not just about labor arbitrage, but how do we tap into that. So when I think about the GECs, I think we're going to see absolutely growth of GECs. I think us, NASSCOM, others have followed are already seeing it. The enterprise clients that we talk to are deeply interested in it. But I think you're going to see a more vibrant market rise in India because of that with start-ups, things providing services, capabilities, products to GECs. And quite frankly, I think just brand India comes out much stronger because of that concentration. And as we've gone through the various trends over the years, we know some of those GECs are going to fail. We know that there's challenges with suboptimized GECs. We know that if you have a very small organization, it can't scale and there's challenges. So you'll see consolidation and construction and other things as we go through some of these models. So I just think it's good for -- I think it's good for the industry overall because of the growth potential that it needs and how we're all starting to use different operating models to really expand the top end of the business.

Stanton Jones

executive
#32

Okay. Next question, Kathy, I'm going to come to you. We just have a question around pricing and have we seen any pricing pressure given the macroeconomic climate?

Kathy Rudy

executive
#33

I'd like to break this down into 2 different segments. One is managed services, right? So what is happening in the managed services market in terms of pricing? And when we talk to our advisors and look at what's happening in the market, there's always competitive pressure and -- on any deal. And obviously, clients are looking for speed to value and trust in that value, what will they be receiving for the services. And so I think there's a balance between price and value and the right partner. So we are seeing some -- the normal deal pressure, but I wouldn't categorize it as anything unique. On the other side, so on just the pure rate side, for roles, especially in-demand roles and almost all across the board, when I looked into our rates data, I am seeing an increase across the board now in role-based rates for mainly the more application maintenance and development. So we are seeing rate increases now finally being accepted into the market. If you remember for a while, there was a lot of salary increases, and we wanted to see how those would flow through. I'm finally seeing the flow through now. And that's across the board. Yes.

Stanton Jones

executive
#34

Okay. Thanks, Kathy. So we got a question about the -- could you elaborate on why demand for managed services was so low in the Americas this quarter? Okay. Yes, sorry, that was the question. So that's almost exclusively due to the pressure that we saw in banking. So it was down 20% year-to-date in the Americas. And as we talked about, we saw some pretty significant slowdown in decision-making in the banking -- in banking in Americas, and that's almost exclusively what caused that decline in the Americas. Let's see. We got a question about, Steve, I'm going to come to you next. There's a dichotomy between signings here and public service -- I guess, the public announcements of service providers. All of them are more cautious, our growth has decelerated, looking for the difference between our managed services results and the public reporting of the providers.

Steven Hall

executive
#35

Yes. I think this almost goes back to the first question that Apurva asked as well. And I think it's probably the key highlight, what's the disconnect. And again, you got to look back at the early part of the quarter, and some of the delays that we have really combined as well with the discretionary spend. So I would say, both from a service provider, enterprise clients, investors, et cetera, you sort of have to look at what the exposure is to discretionary spend. And I think, Kathy, if I'm not -- I'm going to be ballpark right. Discretionary spend is typically about 30% of not only in managed services space, but about 30% of the market that we can see in that value. If that really cuts back, that can have a really big impact both on managed services and the revenue flow-through for service providers. And then Stanton, as you also mentioned, we are seeing a little bit of a delay in lag on transitions. So even though we have high bookings, we're not seeing that revenue carry through within the same period. But the book-to-bill ratios and everything else are fairly well aligned which is, again, really leading to some of the optimism that we've had because a lot of those challenges that we saw are starting to shift out of the model a little bit.

Stanton Jones

executive
#36

Okay. We've got a question about, can you provide more detail on the mega awards? Just for so a little bit more detail here of the 10 that Steve talked about in the quarter, 9 of those were ITO, 1 of those was a BPO award. And then by region, 3 of those were in the Americas, 5 in EMEA, 2 in Asia Pacific and 3 out of the 10 were BFSI, as -- and that's pretty typical BFSI given that it's 30% of the ACV in the sector, generally, most of the mega awards are there. And then the rest were spread out pretty evenly across the other industries. Steve, we've got a question about BPO. What's our outlook for BPO?

Steven Hall

executive
#37

Yes. I mean, BPO is interesting because the chart show it was down, but it was the second best quarter ever. And we still think BPO led by industry-specific BPO, which is really the complete digitization rethinking through is accelerating. It's another area where Gen AI is going to have a massive improvement on what we see there. And ER&D was down, but again, it was down against really strong compares. And I think it was the second or third best quarter ever for ER&D. So I think those 2 areas continue to push out what we see with BPO. I do think some of the other areas, if I just take a look real quick, you'll see, Stanton and I both look across because we got all the data. I think when we look across, some of the other areas actually performed fairly well. So facilities was up, though it was up against quarter-over-quarter, but it was clearly some challenges longer term. HR continues to be fairly flat. It was down a bit year-to-date, but it has come back a little bit from its 5-year average. So we're starting to see much stronger growth in HR as well as we go through. I would say, the one area where we're not really seeing is probably on the supply chain side and the procurement side. Those areas remain pretty flat, and we just haven't seen a lot of bigger activities in those areas. I think there was a couple of questions on supply chain technologies and different things. And the deals are small. Right now, we're just not seeing those flow through in the bigger deals.

Stanton Jones

executive
#38

Yes, there was a question, Steve. You mentioned HCM, there was a question about HCM. It's down 10% year-to-date, like you said, pretty flat quarter-over-quarter. I think as we look through the demand, that looks pretty similar to what it was in Q1. Still a lot of focus on cost reduction and quality there. Another area, as I look through the data here in BPO, Namratha, I may come to you because this kind of relates to another one of the questions as well. Contact center actually had a really strong quarter. It was only up 5% year-to-date, but very, very strong quarter that made up for a pretty weak quarter last year. Same time last year, we did talk about the fact that a lot of the CX investments are protected from a lot of the cost optimization activity we see happening. So along that topic, Namratha, we do have a question around the kind of the combination between generative AI and CX and maybe some use cases that you're potentially seeing there.

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#39

Yes. [indiscernible] to the [indiscernible] better, Kathy, do you want to take a stab at it or do you want me to present though?

Kathy Rudy

executive
#40

I'll just give an example of -- I started micro way back in the service to help desk area. And I remember the knowledge base was key to an agent really being able to support the calls that were coming in. And now I think about using generative AI as a side assistant to the agent themselves where they can type in and get the responses so much faster and it to intuitively know what they should be responding to next. So I think that's an exciting way to think about generative AI, not just as a bot that gets smarter to help the end user but also to help the agent. And I know, Namratha, you've seen other use cases as well. If you want to give us some examples.

Namratha Dharshan

executive
#41

Yes. No, I'm just coming out of like maybe 20-odd briefings on the contact center and the number of use cases that were presented on agent experience and since we are talking so much about agent experience, this particular generative AI just has a huge potential to how it can just significantly increase the productivity. Just think about all the manual tasks after every single call on how they had to kind of summarize each one of these calls, but now it's happening live in real time that's kind of saving significant time. And plus, it's -- to your point on the knowledge data base and in terms of how it can just actually be almost like an assist, like literally working along with you as you're speaking, it's able to interpret the data and then even provide contextual data and conversations to help agents, I think the potential is huge to disrupt this market. And we are probably also going to see a significant impact on productivity, effort, time. That's, I think, something that is very exciting.

Kathy Rudy

executive
#42

Agree.

Stanton Jones

executive
#43

Okay. I think we've got one more -- time for one more quick question. I'll take this one, and then we'll close it out. So we've got a question around the mix of net new deal activity versus renewals and extensions, what we talked about on the call and the relationship between that and vendor consolidation. It's a great question. That's -- the vendor consolidation question, we get that all the time, as everyone knows, this is a big, wide sector with thousands of participants. Nobody really owns a significant amount of market share. It's not like the cloud market, where we have 3 primary vendors. That said, when you see the extension and renewal activity go up, as Steve talked about, that's kind of a reflection of this push around cost optimization. But you can also -- we also will infer from that, that there is more vendor consolidation happening because typically, that's going to be happening from using existing vendors to consolidate those savings. There's a lot of different indicators to that. That said, as we said on the call, we do think that, that traditional balance of new scope to restructuring scope will start to even out in the second half of the year. Okay. We are at time. So we're going to go ahead and close out the call. Apurva, thank you and your team at HDFC very, very much for hosting the call today. Thank you all for investing some of your time with ISG today. And as a reminder, you can access a copy of the slides from today as well as the provider leaderboards on our website at isg-one.com. And finally, make sure to mark your calendar for the third quarter 2023 call, and that's going to be on October 12. Thanks.

Steven Hall

executive
#44

Thank you all.

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