Kuehne + Nagel International AG (KNIN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 25, 2025

SIX Swiss Exchange CH Industrials Marine Transportation investor_day 218 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Joerg Wolfgang Wolle

executive
#1

Thank you very much. And ladies and gentlemen, very good morning and a very warm welcome from my side to you here in London and as to the, what I heard just now, about 500 listeners from far away. Welcome to all of you, and thank you very much for your interest in our company in Kuehne+Nagel. My name is Joerg Wolle, and I'm an engineer by training. I started my career in sales and distribution of European high-tech products in the late 1980s in China and India. As you can imagine, I have witnessed and, to a certain extent, through our business-enabled huge transformations over the last 35 years. During my 18 years as CEO of DKSH, a market expansion and capillary distribution company which we took public in 2012, I have been in charge of restructuring, building, merging and leading companies in the field of logistics and distribution. Logistics is fascinating. Logistics is the lifeblood of the global business. More recently, with the shocking times of coronavirus causing havoc and disruption, not only our customers and investors, but the public at large realized the systemic importance of reliable supply chains enabled by trusted providers like Kuehne+Nagel. Why am I here today? Some background. As most of you know, according to Swiss corporate governance, the Board of Directors doesn't only supervise the management team, but also has full responsibility of determining the strategy of the company. So on behalf of the Board, I will give an insight into the group strategy. We, however, all know that strategy only becomes real at implementation. Therefore, my colleagues from the management team will present to you in detail how the strategy will be successfully implemented in their respective fields of responsibility. When I joined Kuehne+Nagel's Board of Directors in 2010, the company counted 57,000 employees and an EBIT of CHF 765 million. Kuehne+Nagel back then was with a proud history of 120 years, was dominant in Germany, great in Europe, aspiring in the U.S. and quite under the radar in Asia. Over the past decade, we developed Kuehne+Nagel into a leading global logistics provider. By now, there's more than 80,000 colleagues, and the majority of our EBIT coming from the Americas and Asia. Asia being the fastest growing region for us, we developed from transporting products from A to B into a really strategic partner for our key customers, advising them just for one example, on supply chain optionality. Here our customers embark more and more on a China Plus One strategy. Countries like Vietnam, India and Thailand are experiencing particularly strong growth. In Thailand, we recently announced the opening of a sea container freight station in Laem Chabang, Thailand's largest port. Nevertheless, and to put things into perspective, China remain the biggest player in global trade for a long time to come because it has by far the best infrastructure. Just the port of Shanghai alone has an annual container capacity of 50 million containers. Compare this with India's largest port, Nhava Sheva, which handles around 6 million containers. So what actually is our winning formula, our secret sauce, or you may say our strategy? Most importantly, we aim at attracting, keeping and developing the best management team in the industry. The leverage, the special engrained Kuehne+Nagel culture, very close to the customer, entrepreneurial tribe and cost efficiency. We have the proven asset-light business model. We focus clearly on organic growth. We don't have to buy critical mass. We have developed that since many, many years. Organic growth supported by bolt-on acquisitions, if there is cultural fit and if it is immediately earnings accretive. We are open for partnerships like Apex, IMC, you will hear more about that later on from my colleagues from the management team. And we have a very strong focus on digitalization. We are convinced that the incumbent will win. And lastly, we are proud of our speed in decision-making and efficient execution. One example here, we disengaged from our time-honored regional management structure, not only just for the cost savings, but mainly for higher efficiency. My personal motto is stay hungry, even if the fridge is full. We were and are able to convince our customers and our business partners of this sustainable winning strategy. But we also realize that we need some more explaining to do in terms of the capital market perception because, after all, perception is reality. Trying to create a better understanding, let me start with addressing a few myths about our market where we dare to differ. The first one is huge acquisitions will create a market consolidator. Even since Kuehne+Nagel is presently the #1 in sea and airfreight, we only have a low single-digit world market share. Our big competition is not just the big 4, soon to be 3. But particularly, when it comes to higher-margin, small- and medium-sized customers, the 400,000 smaller freight for waters globally, these are our competition. And here, we are gradually winning because they can't keep up the speed with digitalization and the investments necessary for that. They can't provide regional or global reach. And at the same time, we are getting step-by-step even closer to our customers. The next myth is that trade barriers and customs, the newspapers are full of that every day, are bad for our business. This is not necessarily the case, as complexity is actually generally very good for our business. Why? Complexity creates opportunities to charge higher margins for value-added services. One example is our recent acquisition of Farrow, a Canadian customs clearance provider, which you will hear more about from Mr. Rodi later in his presentation. And lastly, 1 plus 1 is much more than 2. In a big acquisition, we are not so sure. We didn't bid for Panalpina and certainly not for a Schenker for a very good reason. There would be a huge customer overlay, and customers always like options. We have, in the past, benefited, and we'll do so again, from those changes in our competition. We will get new customers and also additional expert know-how on board. Going forward, and while we all accept that there is no crystal ball predicting the future, we learned that we need to provide you with a regular financial outlook, and here we start today. Building on our achievements, Kuehne+Nagel is well positioned to enter the next stage of its strategy and capitalize on its strong market position. Our commitment is clear, we deliver. Especially, we aim for growth at 1.5x the global GDP growth. We work on organic growth, focus on organic growth plus, as I mentioned already, the bolt-on acquisitions if they make sense, such as with Apex and IMC. Third, a dividend payout ratio of 80% and a combined conversion rate for Sea and Air Logistics of 35%. And most importantly, I guess, we aim to provide you with regular financial outlooks going forward. These ambitious targets reflect our confidence in our ability to outperform the market and deliver consistent value to our shareholders. Our CEO and our CFO are going to provide you with more details on our strategic priorities and will elaborate on our outlook. We will also take a closer look at what has happened since the last Capital Market Day 2 years ago, areas where we have excelled and areas where we need to make improvements. The business unit leaders will share insights into our key growth drivers, market trends and how we plan to achieve our ambitious targets. They will also discuss the specific initiatives we are taking to strengthen our market position and drive sustainable growth. But let me say this already, our focus remains on delivering the best solution for our customers and for our shareholders. We are very confident that Kuehne+Nagel will maintain the leading position in our industry. We are a global leader in one of the most exciting sectors to invest in, a sector, logistics at the pulse of a global trade. And we are committed to driving long-term growth and delivering value to our stakeholders. Thank you very much for your attention.

Stefan Paul

executive
#2

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Warm welcome as well from my side. And a good day, a good afternoon to all the participants via Webex. Thank you, Joerg Wolle. I'm excited to be back here in London and update you on what we have achieved since the last Capital Markets Day in 2023. I will talk about where we fell short and why and also what we have successfully achieved. And I will explain what specific measures we have implemented to shift to sustainable, profitable market share expansion. The implementation of our Roadmap 2026 strategy is progressing well. Just to remind you, these are the 4 cornerstones. The Kuehne+Nagel Experience initiative aimed at increasing customer satisfaction, while our employee experience is driving a high-performance mindset that strengthens our customer service. Through the Digital Ecosystem, we are making better use of data and are further automating processes to make our organization more efficient and scalable. Living ESG comprises more than our tangible solutions to support our customers in reducing their carbon emissions. It also provides purpose and enablement for our employees and supports sound corporate governance. And finally, while we have made good progress on our market potential initiatives, we have not yet fully capitalized on these opportunities. That has affected our growth and our financial performance, and I will explain on the next slide. We made mixed progress against the targets we have communicated to you at the Capital Markets Day in '23, and we are now resetting expectations. This reset is necessary because of the average EBIT growth rate between '19 and '26. At the Capital Markets Day in '23, we set a target growth rate of 17% to 19%. However, from '19 to '24, our average growth rate was 11%. While this makes a clear improvement versus the pre-COVID growth rates, it means we are clearly tracking below our expectations. What are the reasons for the gap? First and foremost, our assumption for how markets would develop post COVID were too optimistic. In addition, it took time to get back on growth path after major restructuring last year. And our active customer portfolio and yield management led to some drag on our top line growth. Finally, it took time to add additional distinctive services, our offering, which are now available for further drive in profitable growth. However, we made good progress on a number of other targets we presented in 2023. For example, our Sea Logistics conversion rate stood at 41% in 2024, which is already in line with the initial target 2026. In '23, we set the '26 conversion rate targets for Sea and Air Logistics to over 40%. The Air Logistics conversion rate in '24 is below this initial target, but I would like to point out that the productivity and unit cost performance are on track. Lastly, while the headline free cash flow conversion in '24 was below the target level, we finished the year with a much more normal seasonal rate of 94%. Now I would like to show you how we are reframing and updating our growth assumptions to -- in 2030. First, we assume that the overall market will grow in line with global GDP growth or slightly above in case of Contract Logistics. Second, we are committed to long-term sustainable profitable growth at 1.5x the market growth rate. To put that target in context, in the decade prior to COVID pandemic, we achieved already at least 2x the market growth rate in both Sea and Air Logistics but have, in meantime, significantly increased our earnings quality. For Sea and Air Logistics, our reference metric is volume growth. For Road and Contract Logistics, it is net turnover growth. Market growth for the business units may deviate from global GDP growth for certain periods or markets. But even in these situations, we expect all business units to expand their market share. Achieving these growth rates over time will ultimately create long-term shareholder value. On the next slide, I will give you more specifics on how we plan to accomplish that. We create long-term shareholder value through our diversified business portfolio, our resilient business model with disciplined financial management and focus on sustainable profitable growth. This combination delivers growth with a low-risk profile, as our Chairman mentioned. I will start by highlighting the benefits of our large customer base, which covers a wide spectrum of industries from health care and perishables with more stable business cycles to consumer and high-tech with more dynamic ones. Our integrated business model is also an advantage. The relatively stable Contract Logistics business reduces overall earnings volatility. The same is true for our proven asset-light business model: strong balance sheet, focus on organic growth as well as constant and disciplined attention to cost. These advantages strengthen the resilience that help us navigate many difficult market situations. As a 135-year-old company, we understand the value of sustainable profitable growth. We understand that such growth demands a consistent focus on delivering value to our customers through a strong service offering. Finally, we choose evolution, not revolution to grow, which includes a selective use of M&A. Now let me explain the role of M&A in our growth ambitions. Also our primary focus is organic growth. We heard it a couple of times already. We also pursue selected bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate growth in existing markets or to enter new attractive ones or to acquire additional market know-how. However, we are quite selective, as you all know. We only consider acquisitions that provide a clear operational and strategic added value, are a good fit for our existing business as well as have an appropriate valuation and risk profile. We look for acquisitions that we can integrate while maintaining our customer service focus. Recent examples show that we can successfully execute these kind of acquisitions. Joerg Wolle has already mentioned Apex Logistics, which expanded our network and market share on core trades. The acquisition of Farrow in 2024 expanded our footprint and enhanced our customs brokerage capabilities, especially in North America. Hansjoerg Rodi will speak about Farrow as mentioned in his presentation. And just recently, we closed the acquisition of IMC Logistics in the U.S. This is a prime example of value chain expansion. We are now able to provide critical land-side logistics services to our Sea Logistics customers. You will hear more about IMC from Michael Aldwell. We will repeat these successful cases in the future. And based on the feedback from the investment community, including many of you here in the room, we acknowledged that our investor communication needed to evolve. Joerg Wolle has as well alluded to that. That means providing capital markets with more transparency, timely information and guidance. We have listened to your feedback and are making the following improvements. First, in addition to the updated long-term growth aspiration, our aspiration for the combined Sea and Air Logistics conversion rate is approximately 35%. Second, we are clarifying our capital allocation policy. As mentioned, we prioritized investments in organic growth, with selected bolt-on acquisition. We also target a dividend payout ratio of 80%. Markus will provide you with more details in his presentation. Third, we are introducing annual earnings guidance for group EBIT, and we'll update the guidance quarterly. Again, Markus will provide you with more details in his presentation. Personally, I would like to thank the investment community for the clear and direct feedback. I hope this evolution in our market communication will make our ambitions and our future progress clearer. Now let me address the core assumption on trends that support our growth ambition. First, we assume continued long-term global economic growth, despite nearshoring and other trends driven by geopolitic trade barriers and short-term fluctuations. This economic growth will continue to translate into growth of the logistics market. Second, we also assume that supply chain complexity will continue to increase due to various factors such as geopolitics, trade barriers and other volatility caused by disruptions on the demand or supply side. This increased complexity and volatility creates opportunities for flexible and resilient logistics partners like Kuehne+Nagel. Third, we believe the ongoing market consolidation will continue because scale matters. Kuehne+Nagel will actively contribute to the consolidation through organic market share expansion and bolt-on acquisitions. For us, leading market positions matter, especially in Sea and Air Logistics. Fourth, the rise of new potential disruptive technologies will accelerate. Kuehne+Nagel continues to invest in technology to maintain our edge and enable profitable growth. And fifth, supply chain decarbonization is a global trend, even if some countries and customers may pursue a different path. We will continue to serve customers who ask for tangible solutions to reduce carbon emissions in their supply chains. You may remember this picture from our last Capital Market Day, showing the 4 cornerstones of our Roadmap 2026. To achieve sustainable profitable market share growth, we will focus primarily on the market potential cornerstone. The other cornerstones will act as enablers. I've already touched up on Kuehne+Nagel Experience, Digital Ecosystem and Living ESG at the beginning of my speech. Now let me elaborate on Market Potential cornerstone and explain what we have accomplished around sales excellence and product offering. As mentioned at the beginning of my presentation, we completed a major reorganization last year. As part of this, we also restructured our sales force and customer segments, you see that here on the slide. I would like to describe how this reorganization will support growth as we once again focus our full energy and attention on our customers. We aligned our sales force with customer segments and defined clear segment-specific growth strategies. First, for our approximately 400 large global accounts, we continue with our global key account structure, which is aligned along customer verticals. We serve these customers with industry-specific offerings across all business units, and we focus on customer retention and share of wallet expansion. Second, now we have a global consistent approach to serving our large national accounts, this is the middle layer, which requires services from multiple business units. Our dedicated sales force focuses on winning new customers, many of which are so-called national champions or in the middle stand. These customers will benefit from our large global network as well as from our broad and deep service offering. And finally, the large number of local SME customers, the smaller and midsized ones, that trade only with one of our business units will continue to be served by dedicated BU sales forces. Customer proximity and digital sales are key to serving this segment well. This is an important growth segment for our Sea Logistics, in particular, and Michael Aldwell will talk about our progress and what to expect in the future. Finally, we seek to expand our network in attractive markets such as the U.S. and high-growth markets in Asia. In parallel to sharpening our growth strategies by customer segment, we have expanded our specialized and value-added services. These services typically have higher margins and support our ambition of profitable market share expansion. Building these services requires expertise and resources that not many logistic service providers have. That makes these services difficult to copy, and they differentiate us from the vast majority of competitors. Here, I'd like to give only a brief overview and share some examples. My business unit colleagues will further elaborate in their presentations. One source of differentiation is our specialized end-to-end offering that are tailored to industry-specific customer needs. In addition to our well-established health care offering, we have introduced new offerings around semicon and data center services. We have also strengthened our ability to serve customers in the consumer industry, especially with omnichannel fulfillment capabilities. Our service offering also extends beyond core logistics services. It enables us to capture more value across the value chain. Here, you see a selection of services we have introduced in recent years. We used the combination of in-house development and acquisitions to build this offering. You will hear more about this from my colleagues. To develop these services, it is crucial for us to understand the specific needs of our customers and their end customers. Many of our product leaders come from these industries and bring deep customer expertise to Kuehne+Nagel. As an example, let's listen to Nico Sacco, our new Global Head of Healthcare Strategy, who recently joined us from Johnson & Johnson, where he was responsible including worldwide supply chain planning. He was essentially our customer. Nico will describe the success factors in our patient-centric service offering. [Presentation]

Stefan Paul

executive
#3

As you have just heard from at Nico at Kuehne+Nagel, we build our offering by not only addressing our customer needs, but also the needs of their customers. In summary, we have made great progress in our ability to better serve our customers with an expanded relevant and differentiated service offering. We are improving customer satisfaction, and we are continuously increasing the efficiency and scalability of our organization. These themes are reflected in the growth positioning statements of our business units that you see here on this slide. They have all one message in common. We have done our homework and are ready for growth. In the upcoming presentations, my business unit colleagues will tell you exactly how they will drive sustainable, profitable market share expansion. Before I hand over to Markus, let me conclude with the key messages I'd like you to remember. First, our strategy is confirmed, and we have reset our growth ambition. Second, our ambition is growth 1.5x the global GDP growth rate through 2030. Third, our conversion rate ambition for Sea and Air Logistics is approximately 35% through 2030. Fourth, we focus on organic growth with selected bolt-on acquisitions. Fifth, our dividend payout going forward will be 80%. Last, we are adopting an annual EBIT guidance. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attention and for listening. And now I will hand over to Markus, who will give you more insights into the financials. Thank you very much.

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#4

Thank you, Stefan, and a very warm welcome also from my side. Thank you for having taken the time today to attend our Capital Markets Day 2025. I'm truthfully delighted that we meet again after our last Capital Markets Day also here in London, 2023. I hope we can offer you greater depth about our equity story, our short-term and medium-term ambitions. Personally, I would also like to thank you for the feedback about how we present ourselves and how we communicate with you the capital market. We have taken your feedback on board. And as Stefan has already outlined, we will try to ensure this Capital Markets Day is a moment when we reset to provide more and better clarity in the future. To build on what Stefan said, one aspect of this endeavor is to provide the first time a near-term annual earnings guidance for 2025 at the level of recurring earnings before interest and tax. In addition, we provide a guidance on the tax rate and a reduced but more meaningful set of key performance indicators, which we will update on a quarterly basis. Having said that, and I know you all know that, but I want to remind everyone that our business remains subject to seasonality as well as influences from global macroeconomics and geopolitical developments. I want to emphasize that our quarterly results may exhibit a degree of variability on the path towards our annual earnings guidance. Furthermore, my presentation will address several topics of interest in relation to past performance and as well as structural features of our business model. With this additional information and context, we hope that our short-term guidance as well as our longer-term ambitions through 2030 will be clear. Let me start by saying that we are now looking at a business that is qualitatively better than in 2019. We have met or exceeded a number of financial key performance indicators that seemed unreachable before 2019. The business has focused on optimizing yield and, hence, has changed its customer portfolio. This directly contributed to increased conversion rates in the recent years, but we fell short on delivering our growth aspirations. This is the reason why we are now emphasizing on opportunities for accelerated growth and how we want to capitalize on them. This is important to us because we now want to regain trust and credibility with you, the investment community. We are fully committed to our path to stronger growth with a focus on the return on capital employed and strong cash generation. We support this strategy with a very disciplined allocation of capital and a focus on total shareholder returns, a key element of which is an attractive dividend with a history of continuity. We now aim to bolster that confidence in this approach with the adoption of an explicit dividend policy. We have achieved other successes in our Roadmap 2026, beyond the ones that Stefan mentioned. One central element of our culture is the continuous improvement of efficiency, and most of you know it already. At the core of this culture stands eTouch, our digitalization and automation program. The eTouch methodology addresses all aspects of operational processes, and we have focused here on a few workflow areas for Sea and Air Logistics in recent years to demonstrate its relevance and progress. Air Logistics was the initial test for our eTouch automation efforts, and we can see significant staff hour savings that resulted in a positive conversion rate impact of 370 basis points, representing a value of approximately CHF 3 operating cost per 100 kilo. Just for reference, this was our 2026 target we set ourselves in the Capital Markets Day 2023. So we have clearly progressed faster than anticipated. And this, amongst others, bodes well for our ongoing efforts in Sea Logistics, where the initiation of eTouch began much more recently. In Sea Logistics, eTouch staff hour savings continue to accelerate as we expand through the efficiency gains and all the operational processes. This has resulted in a positive conversion rate already of 130 basis points to date, which represents more than CHF 6 operating cost per TEU. Let me now talk about growth, aspirations and opportunities. Our business is largely driven by the development of global GDP. And I would like to give you historical overview of the relationship between our growth and GDP growth. We show on this slide a time line from 2009 until 2024 for the Sea Logistics market, just to illustrate the nature of growth patterns. And just as a reminder, prior to the financial crisis in 2008, the transport market enjoyed growth rates that were multiple of GDP. But between 2009 and 2019, the multiplier of trade volume relative to the GDP has diminished. The transport market grew largely in line with GDP, whereas we succeeded in gaining market share and outgrow the market by a factor of 2. Leaving aside the pandemic years, a look at our post-pandemic performance clearly reveals that our focus on optimizing yield and adjusting the customer portfolio led to several years of growth that was below that of both GDP and the market. This was a consequence for our strict focus on increasing returns. So we now have generated the basis for accelerated growth, and we are, as I said previously, committed to take market share. At the same time, we understand and expect that there will be periods where the market grows slower than GDP. In such situations, we will also aim to gain market share. So irrespective of the economic cycle, our business is structurally highly cash generative. The free cash flow conversion stood at 94% in our most recently reported fourth quarter 2024. One major influence comes from the net working capital. And in the absence of very large freight rate spikes or unforeseen demand, we maintain the confidence in an annual free cash conversion rate of approximately 90%. Recent changes in seasonal quarterly patterns of free cash flow that some of you have picked up rightfully, reflect, to a large extent, the increase of air freight charter activities in our Apex subsidiary. So let me now spend a minute on working capital. Whilst we have recently seen a moderate increase in net working capital, we remain comfortable with our structural net working capital intensity between 3.5% to 4.5%. Days of sales outstanding have been stable over a long period of time, and we expect no significant extension. In terms of supplier payment terms, we see a heavy influence from the airfreight charter business that is subject to high seasonality and volatility. Going forward, we expect that this will also have a visible impact on net working capital levels in certain periods. After confirming our high free cash flow conversion expectations and continuous tight management of working capital, let's talk about return on capital employed. Please have a look at the graph, which we have blanked out the pandemic years due to the extraordinary commercial situations on that time. Based on the current business mix and structure of the balance sheet, we feel comfortable with the return on capital employed on an annual basis of approximately 80%. Whilst Sea and Air Logistics contribute approximately 100% returns or greater, we can report a continuous -- and you see that on the bottom of the slide, a continuous and successful improvement of this KPI also for Contract Logistics, which currently stands at a respectable level of 28%. All these elements, and what I said about them, leads me now to sharing our thoughts around the capital allocation policy. Dividends are the largest item on the board and will continue to remain so. Our capital investments are largely at the same level every year with around CHF 280 million to CHF 320 million and represent mostly leasehold improvement, automation and material and handling equipment. Occasional acquisitions complement the growth strategy. They are highly targeted and vary in size. Lately, and to round up the picture, purchases of treasury shares have been used to complete the Apex acquisition. Now given the significance of dividends in relation to our total shareholder return, let me reflect on the characteristics of our business model that we have discussed so far. We have a highly cash-generative business model with a proven discipline on working capital management and, I'd say, moderate complementary acquisition activities. We keep a disciplined eye on the solidity of our balance sheet and prefer keeping a small net cash position, whereby we do accept a temporary net debt for reasons of growing the business. Our ambition of an 80% dividend payout ratio has a strong historical basis. On the left side of the slide, you can see the historic development of payout ratios and the total value of the dividends. And as a note, we made use of the opportunity as per the Swiss legislation to repay capital whenever it's available, in addition to ordinary dividends. The right-hand side shows the relevance of dividends distribution when we compare total cumulative shareholder returns since December 31, 2019, through the present day. All of these values in Swiss franc. We compare the total returns of our shares relative to the SMI and the basket of our sector peers. And it's noteworthy that until just recently, the cumulative total shareholder returns of our stock since 2019 has been superior to that of any of the depicted comparatives. So after this review of our business characteristics, let's have a look at our medium-term guidance relevant for the period 2026 to 2030. For the conversion rate, which is, as you all know, our key performance indicator, we aim for a combined Sea and Air Logistics conversion rate of approximately 35%. In Road Logistics and Contract Logistics, we foresee stable conversion rates at current levels. Please be aware, our main assumptions especially around our market demand growth to roughly mirror that of GDP and our clear commitment to gain market share in all business units. These targets are based on organic growth, excluding considerations of impacts from sizable acquisitions. We expect our gross CapEx to remain stable and working capital intensity to remain within that well-known and unchanged corridor of 3.5% to 4.5%. Let me now come to the short-term outlook for the year 2025. And clearly, in response to your feedback and in an effort to adopt a practice which is common amongst our peers, we provide you now for the first time a formalized financial earnings outlook for the year 2025. We expect recurring earnings before interest and taxes within the range of CHF 1.5 billion to CHF 1.75 billion. Furthermore, we provide 2025 guidance on effective tax rate of approximately 25% for the group. This earnings guidance is subject to the assumptions that are listed underneath the schedule, including an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, in addition to the nature and conditions of the supply chain. Clearly, the lower end of our guidance reflects an increased level of uncertainty at this relatively early stage of the year 2025. We will affirm or revise our corridor on a quarterly basis, together with reporting our actual financial results. And with this, I'm already at the end of our financial overview, medium-term ambitions and the outlook for 2025. I'd now like to quickly summarize some of the highlights and takeaways of our presentations. First, we provide an earnings outlook on an annual basis with quarterly updates. Second, we provide a medium-term guidance on conversion rates, specify our growth aspirations and communicate a dividend policy. With these few takeaways of our equity story, I trust we have addressed in a very pragmatic and transparent way how we see our future growth based on a very solid financial governance and clear targets. We remain convinced that with this package of strategic initiatives and our commercial mindset, our shares remain an attractive investment offering continuous high-level shareholder returns. This concludes the first part of our Capital Markets Day. And I would now ask Chris to manage and open our Q&A session, and I would like questions to be addressed to the presenters thus so far, which is Joerg Wolle, Stefan Paul and myself. Thank you for your attention and very big thank you for your interest. Thank you.

Christopher Combe

executive
#5

Thank you, Markus, and good morning to all. [Operator Instructions]. So with that, Alexia?

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#6

This is Alexia Dogani from JPMorgan. My one question is on the Chairman. Has the management incentive scheme been aligned to this new roadmap strategy announcement?

Joerg Wolfgang Wolle

executive
#7

Yes is the answer. So the management incentive scheme is basically threefold as a relatively low annual fixed pay, if you like, relatively high profit sharing scheme, which is dependent on the profit after tax, which the company achieves, and then we share what we call the share matching plan.

Christopher Combe

executive
#8

Muneeba?

Muneeba Kayani

analyst
#9

Muneeba Kayani, Bank of America. So thank you for setting out the annual targets, and maybe that's where I'll start. A bit more color on how you've thought about the low and the high end of your guide. You did say you take into account the uncertainty at the low end. But we've got situations around the Red Sea, trade tariffs coming up. So have you framed around that? And is IMC in that guide, to be clear?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#10

Thank you for the question. So I think twofold answer to that. Firstly, I think we made a relatively comprehensive set of assumptions around this guidance, first of all. Secondly, it's the first time we do it, so give us a bit of credit that we are probably in the range a bit wider than others that do that for a longer period of time already. And I think our lower end is really the expression of very early in the day for 2025. We are a bit, let's say, adapting something that we need to learn. And at the same time, there are so many moving parts on a daily basis, more or less, that we try to keep ourselves a bit of room, let's say, to adjust over the next quarters to come.

Christopher Combe

executive
#11

Andy?

Andy Chu

analyst
#12

It's Andy Chu from Deutsche Bank. My one question is around the 35% conversion ratio, which you're achieving at this point in time. I just wondered whether, again, it's a continuation with the theme whether you might see that as a kind of fairly conservative piece of guidance and maybe a bit of feedback is around sort of ambition going forward, maybe the balance there between targets and ambitions and conservatism.

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#13

Thank you, Andy. I think it's an expression to talk about the approximately 35% that we communicate to you that at a point in time, conversion rates between sea and air freight may vary because, sometimes, businesses develop in a different way. We have seen it now recently when supply chain disruption in seafreight has happened, air freight has benefited, and sometimes the other way around. So it's an expression that these businesses are not disconnected, but they are very largely depending and connected to each other. So I think that is the first message. The second message is we have a very committed, aggressive growth plan. And we know there will be periods where margins or yields may become, for a short period of time, under pressure. And this is factored into a target that looks for us achievable in its totality, whereby some of the elements of that targets may vary in a quarterly view.

Christopher Combe

executive
#14

Thank you. Alex?

Alexander Irving

analyst
#15

Alex Irving from Bernstein. So my question is on the reset of the targets. Now it's clear that from a volume perspective, the market hasn't recovered as quickly as hoped, yet even with that recent volumes have looked somewhat soft relative to your larger peers. I understand, Markus, you talked about efforts to manage mix Nevertheless, the yields in both air and sea are below the targets we had in the 2023 Capital Markets Day 2 years ago. Is it fair to say that we're getting neither volume nor the unit economics that we'd hoped for? If so, why is that? And what gives you the confidence that you can turn the ship around?

Stefan Paul

executive
#16

So maybe I'll talk about the confidence first, right? So Alex, thanks. Confidence, so as you know, we have done a major restructuring. We have dismantled a regional layer, and the business units have direct control now into the country organizations. And we have reset ourselves as well in terms of we want to gain market share, and that is the mainframe of our discussions in the management Board, in the Board of Director interaction and with our people, with our leadership team, with our sales force. And you have seen in my presentation how we have restructured as well sales in these 3 categories: so the larger ones, the 400; the midsized ones, the national champions; and then the SME. And we have seen, as we have communicated already a couple of times, very good traction in the SME piece, in particular, in seafreight. Michael will allude in this afternoon or a little bit later on that. So the confidence level that we can grow and take market share based on the homework we have executed and we have done in 2024 is rather high. So the confidence level that we can now demonstrate market share gains and growth is higher than before. I would say if your question was around yield as well, I think in seafreight, we are somehow close to our initial idea, not completely. And in airfreight, we overestimated certain parameters in the market. And here, we have a certain gap, but I was alluding as well to other KPIs, which we have met. So the confidence level, based on what we have done, our homework 2024 is there and large in terms of we are confident to deliver market share gains and growth.

Christopher Combe

executive
#17

Thank you. Michael?

Michael Foeth

analyst
#18

Michael Foeth, Vontobel. One question on your market assumptions. You're assuming trade or market growth of 1x GDP, and that has been the case already for the past 10 years. So it implies that you're assuming that there is no structural change going forward in a more polarized world in terms of the trade dynamics. Can you comment on that?

Stefan Paul

executive
#19

No. I think it's mainly around nearshoring, right? So do we believe there is a trend to nearshore significantly and a shift from Asia maybe to the West basically? And I said it a couple of times, we will not see that t-shirts and the cheap Charlie stuff will be produced in the Western economies, right? So neither in Europe nor in the U.S. So we don't see a clear shift or a massive shift in terms of nearshoring. Certain verticals, of course, but the majority still is in Asia, and there is a clear trend, which we already see now since 2 years from China into Southeast Asia. We mentioned that Vietnam, Malaysia, India now is participating. But the global trade pattern will maybe, on a short-term basis, vary a little bit, and you will see changes on certain trade lanes. But overall, we don't see that there is a massive nearshoring trend, and that's the reason why we believe it is appropriate what we have communicated.

Joerg Wolfgang Wolle

executive
#20

If I may add to this, as I briefly alluded in my speech as well, there is this myth about people leaving China that is simply not true. There is no evidence of that. What we see is that suppliers or customers, manufacturers are going for this China Plus One. And this is not only because this basically originated from coronavirus much more than from any geopolitical issues. So there's a big disconnect between what the media is presenting in certain areas to what the reality is. And also we have alluded briefly on the infrastructure in the different countries. Yes, India is growing rapidly. But in comparison to the infrastructure, which is built up in China, there's many years to come before we are seeing a real, I would say, dent or a real competition to what has been built in China. So I think we keep this in mind. And since we are very well aware of trade flows and have a deep insight into this, we thought it's worth to mention. Thank you.

Christopher Combe

executive
#21

Thanks, Michael for the question. In the back.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#22

Peter, Morgan Stanley. I just wanted to ask if you could give a bit more color around growing the customer wallet share, particularly as I think you mentioned earlier in your presentation, customers want choice. So maybe just some color around... [Audio Gap]

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#23

[Audio Gap] I can see plenty of reasons why conversion ratio should be higher, growth, more SME, better eTouch efficiencies, digitalization, et cetera. So why not being more ambitious? What is being a drag here just to understand your thinking around this?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#24

I wouldn't call it a drag. I would say it's an expression where we say, yes, we see that potential happening with the amount of uncertainty on the one side around how growth is going to express itself, how well we can perform on our growth ambitions. At the same time, with lesson learned from the last time, we probably want to have a target that we can beat.

Joerg Wolfgang Wolle

executive
#25

Where it is called once burned, twice shy.

Christopher Combe

executive
#26

Gian-Marco, I think you had a question.

Gian Werro

analyst
#27

Giann-Marco, ZKB. A question on your SME growth targets that you mentioned. You're standing currently at around 49% of your volumes being SME and you mentioned that you want to increase the customer centricity. So my question now is, do you have enough really sales force to do this big lot of work that [Audio Gap]

Stefan Paul

executive
#28

[Audio Gap] interconnected our TMS and the sales force system, the CRM system, and we are making more progress in terms of how do we measure, how do we support and what do we do in order to accelerate growth in SME. So we are very confident on that piece.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#29

[indiscernible] from UBS. Could I ask you in air and sea gross profit per unit? Could you give us a bit more color? Can you talk a bit about normalization in 2025 from a high level? How do you -- could you offer more color there? How do you think of the midterm? And maybe to the extent that GP per unit offers today some support to the conversion ratio, because it may be higher than normal due to disruption, what's the type of headwind you expect there as that excess GP per unit comes down?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#30

I think a couple of elements to that. I think, today, for us, it's more today to talk about the long-term development strategy, how we want to position ourselves. I think we have, secondly, provided a short-term guidance on our earnings before interest and tax on a recurring basis. I think what my -- or our colleagues in sea and airfreight are going to present are market dynamics that are obviously having an influence on yield and gross profit per unit. But I think at the current stage, we will focus on the dynamics, what influences the profitability on a gross profit level rather than talking about any short-term impacts that it will have. Thank you.

Christopher Combe

executive
#31

I'll take one question from the web to give people a chance. So one on tariffs. What are your thoughts on the recently proposed levies -- I'm sorry, tariffs out of the U.S. for Canada and Mexico? And what strategic adjustments has Kuehne+Nagel made to navigate the complexities that this introduces?

Stefan Paul

executive
#32

Yes. That is a very good question. And I can only, as well, echo what I have said a couple of times, I read newspapers as everybody else in the room. We have just had last night an EU information on the automotive side and which is for me, as well, a little bit unclear. So what we do in order to manage the complexity is -- and one example is the Farrow acquisition a year ago helping us at the cross-border business between Canada and the U.S. and on the South border. On a short-term basis, this is helping us because there is a huge demand coming from customers on consultancy services, supports them on the jungle basically and create clarity and help them to navigate through the difficult times. On the other side, there is a downside risk as well, but we need to see how this is going to evolve in terms of the traffic between the countries, the number of orders, which we can execute. So there is a short-term gain and maybe a mid- and long-term mini risk, but we are managing that. So what we do is wherever we see there is a need for additional services, we either develop them organically or alternatively as we have done with Farrow or now with IMC where we bring in additional expertise and knowledge into the organization. And what is pretty clear is we have to be alerted in terms of our cost management is concerned, right? Whenever we see there is a market which is suffering, we need to take out operational costs, but this is not new, and this is what we have done the last decade -- or decades already.

Christopher Combe

executive
#33

Thank you, Stefan. Any other questions in the room? Sathish?

Sathish Sivakumar

analyst
#34

This is Sathish Sivakumar. If you look at your customer segment, so you classified into global accounts, national accounts and SME accounts. Within that, can you give us the split between value-add and non-value-add, i.e., maybe how does the conversion ratio looks among those 3 customer segment today? And where do you think that would evolve by 2030?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#35

I think our aim clearly is -- or let me start why we actually focus on the SME, right? Because the SME is the customer where we have a full package that we can provide like a care-free package, and if we take care of your logistics. And the SME customer typically gives us more opportunities by developing their own business or his own business, and it gives us opportunities to walk alongside with them. Now you could argue, well, large customers do the same, kind of when you do an onshoring or a China Plus One, what Stefan and Joerg has alluded to. But that is a different commercial way of doing it. And it's very competitive at the end. Whereas on an SME side, competition is less fierce because the length of services that a typical SME customer would require cannot be provided by everybody on a global scale. So this is why we're interested in it. So without giving you numbers, but you can always assume there is a much larger part of the gross profit that is solidly connected to value-added services on an SME part.

Christopher Combe

executive
#36

Thank you, Markus. Marc?

Marc Zeck

analyst
#37

It's Marc from Kepler Cheuvreux. Just one question on the mix of the conversion rate targets for 2030. To me, it feels like that for seafreight, we've got the SME targets. We've got potentially additional upside from eTouch. But less so for airfreight. Does it imply that airfreight conversion rates are going down from here or seafreight going up given that right now, we are already at 35% on a mix rate?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#38

Yes, I think that's a crystal ball question for many, many quarters now. I think we will see certain swings between the mix. I think that is what I tried to mention also beforehand. We will have sometimes developments that are very favorable on the seafreight side. Sometimes, they are very favorable on the airfreight side. You will hear -- in a short while, you will hear how fast reacting an airfreight market can be between, let's say, rather dull situation and a very good situation, right? So that's why we have adopted a way of using a combined rate exactly to avoid a situation where we say, "Oh, now this quarter, it's a bit higher. Next quarter is a bit lower." These are a lot of influences that are out of our control. But what we can feel comfortable about is that the connection of these 2 will result into a certain economic return.

Christopher Combe

executive
#39

Thank you. Next to Marc.

Johannes Braun

analyst
#40

Johannes Braun at Stifel. There's a statement in your annual report, basically says that you gained a large number of customers in Q4 as a result of developments at the individual competitor. I guess, we all know who that is, right? And I think you also alluded to it already when you talked about share of wallet. But can you be a little bit more concrete what DB Schenker means for you? And also to what extent it's already included in your growth targets until 2030?

Stefan Paul

executive
#41

Yes. Thank you for the question. So first of all, there is no guarantee, right? So there is no guarantee that we get all the customers, which are coming to the marketplace. If you look at the statistics and the experience we made in this market and in our industry, that is evident that 20%, 25% maybe of the business is coming to new providers, right? And from 3 -- 4 to 3, there is a certain chance that we will take over a certain amount of businesses and, of course, talents and people. So what we have seen in the fourth quarter that was particular in airfreight, we picked up on certain businesses already. We see that, right, so that the share of wallet on certain customers started to grow in the fourth quarter, but the majority will only come after the closing. So in the second half of this year, then when people -- or when companies need to take their decision based on what I have said before in my statement, procurement policies and governance in terms of how much business can I allocate to one provider. That has nothing to do with the quality stamp or with the execution capability. That has as well to do with how companies have to divert their risk position.

Christopher Combe

executive
#42

Thank you, Stefan.

Dan Jensen

analyst
#43

Yes, Dan Togo, Carnegie. Just to follow up here. Taking a sneak peek in your presentation here, you -- I don't know, is there any commercial value in being #1? Because you before --- there are slides further down where you aim for that position and DB Schenker probably will challenge you in sea, maybe even exceeds you in air. So is there any commercial value in being #1? And why do you make that claim or have that target?

Stefan Paul

executive
#44

So we see the challenges more coming into the airfreight business unit and rather than in sea, I think, in order to -- so it has 2 elements. Basically, I think from a procurement perspective, and your question was pretty much focused on procurement, whether you're #1 or #2, that is not a big difference, right? But I think it's the pride factor. And this as well as an employee to attract the right talents and the people, it is important that you have a leading market position, right? And we take it sportive, and we are energized, right, so in order to fight, right? So we want to maintain a leading position, and that's why we do it, right, because it makes fun as well.

Christopher Combe

executive
#45

Michael?

Michael Aspinall

analyst
#46

Michael Aspinall from Jefferies here. Just one on your personnel growth to support your volume growth ambitions. Do you see kind of your volume growth ambitions as achievable with your current level of personnel? Or would we expect kind of personnel to growth -- to grow in line with your volume growth assumptions?

Stefan Paul

executive
#47

So from an operational perspective, and maybe Markus want to add, but from an operational perspective, we have a certain buffer. Basically, we can add up to a certain percentage in terms of volume is concerned in both in air and sea, in particular. It might be that we need a little bit more on the commercial side. We're talking about it a couple of minutes ago in terms of how many salespeople do we have. And it might be that we need to onboard a few more. But from an operational standpoint of view, we are rather confident that we can add more volume towards the current setup.

Christopher Combe

executive
#48

Alexia?

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#49

It's Alexia again. First of all, great to see that the plan is aligned with the management incentive scheme. Clearly, we cannot kind of assess it on our own because the details are not available, but I'm going to take your word for it. I guess, when you look at the 35% conversion ratio, and I appreciate the market is very volatile, at the moment, you are at that level with kind of a significant improvement in yields. You're suggesting in sea that it kind of drive further cost improvements perhaps to offset that yield decline that, as you suggest, might come when disruptions ease. But obviously, the magnitude is difficult even for us to assess. What other tools do you have in your toolkit to get you to that 35% conversion rate if the backdrop weakens and it's harder to keep some of that yield that you've gained over the past 5 years?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#50

So I think -- if I may take that question. I think there are these elements that you're talking about. It's yield, it is volume growth, our ambitions to it and obviously how we increase efficiency. So clearly, and we have done that through various situations in the economic cycles. If things really become, let's say, difficult, then we do what we always have done. We reduce cost and come back to a new operating base. But I think this is a target where we feel comfortable under, let's say, largely normal development over the next couple of years that we see 3 elements: yield, volume and operational efficiency, we can get there.

Christopher Combe

executive
#51

Alex, a follow-up.

Alexander Irving

analyst
#52

Alex Irving from Bernstein. Another follow-up here, thinking about 2023 Capital Markets Day once again. We heard a lot about trust, a lot about the Net Promoter Score. And we haven't talked about those 2 elements this morning so far. If I cast our mind back, I think with trust up, service quality up, NPS up, churn down, volumes higher. What happened? Did did NPS not go up? Did churn not go down? Is the challenge being in winning new customers? And how does that experience reflect in the plan presented this morning?

Stefan Paul

executive
#53

Yes, right. We haven't talked about it. We have talked about that quite in detail during the last Capital Markets Day. So let me allude a little bit on the Kuehne+Nagel side. So the customer experience, we started to measure Net Promoter Score the first time for the group in 2023. And then in 2024, it's considerably up, right? It's not at the benchmark level, but it's considerably up and the churn is going down. That was one topic. And the other topic was the EX, the employee experience, right? So we have measured now 2x as well in the road eNPS and Great Place to Work, and this is official data. We have been certified in 64 countries out of the 90 countries, so 12 countries more in 2024 versus 2023. So I would say a very good start. So we see in both KPIs, there is a certain improvement. And we will continue, of course, by measuring our Net Promoter Score and our, basically, Great Place to Work trust factor. So we see there is a correlation, and we get a lot of feedback and positive feedback sometimes as well, areas of improvements from our customers, individual feedback between 20,000 and 25,000 customers give us on an annualized basis where do they believe we are good and where we have areas of improvement. So we continue with that as we have started in 2023.

Christopher Combe

executive
#54

Thank you, Stefan. A follow-up from Michael.

Michael Foeth

analyst
#55

Yes. Michael Foeth, Vontobel. Just following up on the same question. I think last time, you talked about churn of 25% and that you need to rewin that business every year. And by reducing that churn, you could significantly accelerate growth. I think that was one of the proposition. So what happened there? And where is the churn now?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#56

So I think, again, what we started in 2023 also with our ambitions for '26 were very much focused and centered around that customer service part, and customer service doesn't come overnight. We have -- I think we have invested time, money and people. And slowly, we see that needle to move. But maybe that's one of the things where we also thought we can move a bit faster than what we did actually in reality. So it's a valid point. Churn rate is improving the speed that we were anticipating, and that was probably also one of the parts where we fell short in our growth ambitions because we thought the churn rate goes backwards much, much faster than what it really did. And hence, our growth was not as supported by the closing of the back door, if you'd like. So it's there. It's the right thing to do. It's happening. It's just taking a bit more time than what we thought at the beginning.

Christopher Combe

executive
#57

And we will expand upon this a bit later as well.

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#58

Yes. I think there is a lot of information coming at a later stage and...

Christopher Combe

executive
#59

Great. We have a few minutes left. Any more questions? Christian?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#60

Looking at the sales force and middle management, can you tell us a bit about the key performance indicators they have in their remuneration? Is it growth? Is it GP per unit? Or -- and has this changed over the last year as you reorganize the sales force?

Stefan Paul

executive
#61

So you have asked 2 questions, the sales force and the middle management. So let me tackle first the middle management. So in the past, middle management was purely incentivized on profitability. Now it's a combination of customer orientation and how do I manage my customer force, the large national customers in my portfolio moving forward, because that is supporting the growth aspiration of 1.5x. So it's a combination of how do I manage my customers, my people in my area of responsibility and how can I support that growth target versus a certain part in the -- on the financial targets. So we have added this component to it. And secondly, the sales force is in the past decades, we were extremely conservative in terms of the base salary and then the bonus scheme is concerned. Now especially with SMEs, we have, I would call it, a hunting incentive scheme. It is based on a certain figure per acquired new unit, whether it's seafreight, whether it's road or whether it's the container business and LCL in the seafreight business unit. So it's -- they are paid per customer and per new acquisition, new customers coming in. And on the larger one as well, we have removed the cap. So we are much more aggressive in terms of how are we paying our sales force in order to support that growth, and that has happened in the end of 2024 when we have installed -- or while we have installed our new setup in terms of the commercial force is concerned. So we pay by performance, yes.

Christopher Combe

executive
#62

Thank you, Stefan. With that, we're right up on schedule, 10:30. Thank you all for your very good questions, and we'll convene again in 15 minutes after the break. Thank you. [Break]

Christopher Combe

executive
#63

And then we'll have our next break after that. So with that, I hand over to Michael.

Michael Aldwell

executive
#64

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Michael Aldwell. It's my pleasure to be with you here today. It's my first time at 1 of these Capital Markets Days event. So it's a pleasure to get introduced to you all. To briefly introduce myself, I spent the vast majority of my career within different positions in the Kuehne+Nagel Group over the last 17.5 years. I've been fortunate to spend time in Oceania, North America, the Middle East and Africa and for the last couple of years being based in Europe. Almost all of this time, I've been focused either on business development, general management, sea logistics management. And as such, I have a grassroots knowledge of the inner workings of the industry, our organization and a strong drive to develop the business. Today, I'll update you on how we've done our homework and made progress towards our financial goals. I'll then provide you with a clear outlook on why we're in a robust position, more agile than ever with our new organizational footprint and ready to accelerate on a profitable growth path. Over the last 2 years, we've driven material changes to our customer portfolio, resulting in substantial improvements to long-run group yields and we've done this by expanding our network footprint to be closer to more small- and medium-sized customers actively managing our cargo mix and pricing strategies and taking a critical approach to low margin, low contribution volumes and deselecting those which simply do not add enough value to the group in the long run. We've built lean structures that drive speed to market, pricing discipline, and we've differentiated our service offering through land side logistics services and leading service offering in the market. We have made progress with customer-facing technology, and we continually strive to improve the customer experience. We've undertaken these efforts to establish a robust agile platform for growth so that we can now accelerate on a consistent trajectory. Let's take a look at our KPIs from the last CMD. Starting with volume. Our assessment of the market 2 years ago was simply too optimistic. As the pandemic conditions quickly faded into 2023, we needed to deal with several things. First, rightsizing the organization; second, a sluggish market, making progress on our mix efforts and we simply did not meet the volume growth goals that we set for ourselves. We've now stopped this trend, and we're returning to growth on a strong foundation with confidence in our ability to execute. However, when looking through the extreme years of the pandemic, we have successfully increased EBIT by 87% or CHF 395 million from 2019 to 2024, a healthy 5-year compound annual earnings growth rate of 13.5% a year. As I look forward, I see an organization that's growing in confidence in the market and is fully focused on taking share. We delivered 2% underlying growth in the third quarter of '24, 4% in the fourth quarter. I'm optimistic for the future that regardless of the conditions we will take market share. Looking to mix. We've completed in 2024 the deselection of 240-plus thousand TEUs from the scrap and commodity segments. And looking forward between Q1 and Q3 '25 volumes from these decisions will have a remaining negative overhang of 84,000 TEUs. As of Q4 2025, we will no longer be publishing an underlying growth figure. Secondly, on mix. We've now reached a roughly half-half mix of SMEs to large customers, and we expect the bias towards higher small- and medium-sized customer share as a solid basis for future growth expectations. Moving to yield. We've met our expectations and thanks to the team's substantial efforts to drive performance. On a constant currency basis, the outcome is even better given the steady appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last several years. As we look forward, you can expect to see a positive contribution from our IMC acquisition to yields as well of around CHF 50 to CHF 60 per TEU on a group basis. We've also made progress on the cost side, an area of constant focus in our organization. It's a skinny business. You have to be laser focused on your cost structure. Since the end of 2022, 16% down, we're proud of that, and we'll have in the future growth, we were going to gain from operating leverage from the decisions that we've made in cleaning up the cost base and cleaning up the customer base and that excludes the impact from a cost growth perspective from the IMC acquisition. Finishing with unit economics, the conversion rate in sea logistics has been excellent with an average of 43% for '23 and '24, well ahead of our revised long-run outlook of 35% for sea and air and significantly above the prepandemic averages of 30%. If we look forward, what does the market hold for us? Market volatility persists in a repetitively disruptive industry. As is clear to all in this room, we live and operate in turbulent times, especially the current frictions around globalization and trade and our outlook for the sector is consistent with the industries that long-run growth will be similar to the rate of GDP or broadly one-to-one relationship. And at the same time, we see production economies accelerating some -- sorry, some production economies accelerating faster than others. In this environment, with our global footprint, we are well positioned to capture market share as these production shifts take place, we don't need to establish new markets to scale up footprint. It's more around scaling what we have in those markets to make sure we're positioned well, and we already have that base infrastructure in place. The uncertainty and volatility creates opportunities for us to perform for both customers and shareholders alike with trade barriers leading to complexity and diversification in the supply chain. Despite consolidation amongst the largest in the industry players, the competitive landscape remains highly fragmented. We compete against hundreds and thousands of small local forwarders all over the world. And as this technology-based consolidation and market-based consolidation continues, we're well positioned to benefit from that trend. Overall capacity in our industry will increase faster than the market in the coming years, which we expect to keep pressure on the ocean freight market. However, even with the cyclical impacts of rate volatility on ocean freight trading margins, we see exciting opportunities to support customers in this environment where reliance on a trusted logistics partner with skilled people, advanced technology is fundamental to navigating successfully in this increasingly complex landscape. We look forward, the outlook for supply and demand conditions is one of a market under pressure. It is also nuanced. And if we take the example of 2024, almost all of the newly delivered capacity was absorbed either by rising port congestion or Red Sea diversions, keeping supply and demand in balance roughly over the majority of the year, with periods of deltas between them. I think it's important to emphasize that. First, we live in extraordinary times geopolitically relative to the pre-pandemic years. We've written recently a series of successive Black Swan events. Second, volatility itself in terms of the absolute movements and the speed of movements around pricing in our industry is far greater based on the last years of consolidation and the severity of events. And third, we expect swift material moves to manage available capacity, be it blankings, redeployments, slow steaming, scrappings, deletions, et cetera, that we believe will result in continued volatility and challenges that drive the needs for a trusted logistics provider. And in markets like this, scale offers benefits. We can and we will maintain our #1 position. In doing so, we ensure that we can offer the benefits of that scale to our customers and shareholders and carrier partners alike. And whilst the supply-demand-driven cycle and freight rates will continue to be a prominent factor in earnings on a quarter-to-quarter basis, we are well positioned to navigate the cycles over the long run as we take share in the most attractive trade lanes. Now I would like to talk about how we'll maintain a matter of pride and consequence for our group, our #1 position in sea freight forwarding as we take share from both small and large competitors alike. We have 3 core drivers in Sea Logistics. First, we will continue our strategy of small- and medium-sized customer development and customer proximity as we develop our network. Second, we will ensure that, that growth play takes place in markets which are most attractive and the segments which are most attractive to us. And third, we will continue to expand our value proposition. So I will talk about our unique case in the U.S. with IMC, which is also an opportunity for further markets in the future. Starting with network expansion. We hold a deep conviction that customer proximity, physical proximity is a material differentiator in a retrenching and disrupted industry. With customer proximity, we're able to build meaningful relationships to become the trusted adviser to our small- and medium-sized customers. They constantly face a lack of reliability from the global supply chain. And we take the time to understand their needs, help them carefully design solutions to their problems step by step, and we also offer them a unique customer experience via localized service to help them navigate the global network. We will expand our network in smaller markets where we find attractive growth potential and the ability to serve new customers with more service. So far, we are now serving 41 new markets since the beginning of 2023, out of the initial goal of 50 by 2026. So we're ahead of our plan, and we plan at least 20 more new locations as we get towards the future moments of our strategy in the next couple of years. And we opened another couple in the last couple of months. And for us, it's something is a matter of pride also for our team. It's something that our company loves doing is expanding the network and driving that forward. We see the emerging results of these openings, and we expect to harvest progressively greater gains as we go forward into the future. Second, we've grown -- there was a question that came to Stefan before, where are we at with our SME sales force? The low point for us in our small- and medium-sized customer sales force was in 2022. And since then, we've increased the number of people we have in business unit sales out in the markets by 40%. And we continue to drive this initiative forward in the years to come, supporting an improved cargo mix and quality. At the same time, we're delivering substantial improvement in the productivity of that sales channel. So our field sales people -- business unit sales people are actually selling more per person progressively year after year and further penetrating that market. It's also important to note -- closely with my colleague, running our air logistics business, that this is also a productive sales channel for air freight. Our small- and medium-sized customers really have a planned air freight supply chain. So instead of complex RFQ situations, it becomes more an order handling activity and there, it offers us attractive margins for our air freight business. Third, we continue to advance our service culture. We really care about our customers. The customer has to be at the center of what we do. We are a service industry. I think people oftentimes in this industry talk about products, we're a service-based industry. And we have -- we're implementing at the moment, customer case management via our customer relationship management tool. And we're now live in more than 40 countries, with the remaining countries are on schedule to be fully implemented this year, and we continually improve our customer experience and retention, which is important to our growth ambitions via this initiative. As of today, more than half of our global customer service team are active users and the technology is working well, including artificial intelligence that is beginning to support the daily work of our customer service people with the first use cases now deployed into the markets. I think this is an important part for me as well: we cannot and we do not want to be everywhere at once. Someone once told me you can't throw a stone at every barking dog. It's critical for us that we have clear focus and understanding in our organization where we want to grow, why we want to grow there and why those trades are attractive? And we do not want to grow in all trades and verticals, but rather with those that are most attractive on a long-run basis. Within the forwarding industry, we are already the market leader in some trades. And we have the clear ambition to become the clear market leader in the trades in which we focus. We have a unique strategy defined for each of these markets to make sure we address the most attractive segments of those markets. And we have dedicated teams segregated, working specifically with key KPIs where we measure their performance, we report on a monthly basis to ensure we're able to specifically drive performance in those core focus markets. And these markets are attractive for multiple reasons. I'll highlight just a few. First, the scale and rate volatility for the large Asia outbound trades is attractive for us. Second, the continued growth of manufacturing in Asia. [ Dr. Volla ] and Stefan referred to it earlier. We do not observe any wholesale move to reshore production. We actually observe a diversification and fragmentation of the supply chain in Asia which drives more need for logistics services in the future. And third, technology, renewable energy, health care products continue to grow faster than the market, all of which provide attractive growth opportunities for us in the years ahead. Moving forward, we seek to continue expanding the value chain. We see this as a unique opportunity to work with our customers, especially in markets where we have a certain critical mass. This brings me to IMC, our latest acquisition in the U.S. IMC is a clear example of our bolt-on acquisition strategy, where we've taken the time building a relationship, finding a DNA match with a family business and are able to partner together with the existing shareholders to bring on a new capability that is complementary to our business with clear customer value and operational revenue synergies. We also continue to hear our co-branding strategy, like we've done with the acquisition of Apex, which Yngve will speak to, we see a benefit to continuing with IMC's strong independent brand in the marketplace. And before I elaborate further, I'd like to show you a brief video to give you an overview of what the IMC network offers to our customers who trade in the United States, which for us is the largest market with the largest amount of control business. [Presentation]

Michael Aldwell

executive
#65

Little bit of fun music there. Thank you for your attention. So how will IMC's leading market position in landside logistics in the U.S. drive growth, differentiation with an attractive contribution to the group. And here are a few things to consider about our rationale and approach when we took the first approach to making that deal. I think as the first main question is why would we as a freight forwarder want to invest in landside logistics. It helps us address the main challenges in the container supply chain, which if you know our industry, are all on the land side. Actually pushing steel through water is not the most difficult part. It's what happens when containers get stuck in terminals, they get congested, you have to move boxes out, getting through yard operations. And so port congestion, equipment management and availability, detention and demurrage are all major challenges for our customers, whether you're a small-, medium-sized customer or a large customer, perhaps even more so at times in the U.S. with the large customers you need to move high volumes through congested terminals and yards. And we saw it very clearly during the pandemic, and we've seen it other times since. This is a crisis and it's also an opportunity. But those that are able to control capacity and manage it well are really well positioned to help customers and also benefit in that market condition. Technology in this space is also not well advanced. And the markets are generally very fragmented. So in many cases, with hundreds or even thousands of local market participants in a local port market. The financial opportunity is also attractive. There is less fluctuation in rates and margins in this space, especially versus the sharp volatility that we always experience in ocean freight markets, which are very clear to everybody that observes our industry. In many cases, the inland costs, though, are actually similar to cost level or higher than the actual ocean freight leg itself. It can also bring us closer together with our carrier partners. We can support some of their operational needs, be a more attractive customer supporting empty return programs and many other activities that happen on the land side with the container supply chain. As a second main question, why should we invest in the U.S. and why IMC? Start with the U.S. as the first part. Well, 25% of all container moves either start or terminate in the U.S. We are the market leading NVOCC or freight-forwarder in the U.S., and this gives us operational scale, combined with the IMC's market-leading position in landside logistics. The distances are the longest in the world, and the cost is generally the highest in the world. Another notable factor is that in the U.S., there are very few national players. And as I mentioned before, IMC is the largest, which brings me question is why do we target IMC specifically? First and most important for us is a very strong cultural fit between both companies. We can learn a lot from IMC and IMC can learn a lot from us. The scale and the synergy case make a very attractive opportunity. Likewise, IMC is great technology and a strong commercial offering backed by the well-known independent brand. All combined, we can solve real tangible container logistics problems for customers in a unique way, such as our -- of being able to offer a rail network ourselves in a non-asset-based fashion, being able to operate yard operations in a very different way than other market participants in the industry. And we can do this for all customer segments and verticals, realizing the benefits for customers and shareholders alike. Finally, this acquisition has broader implications for the group. We see an opportunity to deploy that technology also internationally, where we have other markets where we have scale and density to take advantage of that opportunity that presents itself and differentiate our offering and drive performance and yields. The integration of IMC is underway, and we're excited about the future that this holds for our group and for the customer base that are going to benefit from that support. Now I'd like to summarize. We have clear goals in sea logistics. First, we focus on absolute EBIT growth. This means volume, quality and discipline to focus on the markets which provide the best returns and to leverage scale when volatility strikes. Second, we deliver market share expansion. This means capitalizing on our leading position, technology, network and ability to partner with clients to be the problem solver of the global supply chain, whilst delivering a growth outlook 1.5x GDP over the long run. Third, we continue to strengthen our value proposition. This means leveraging our leading position to benefit our customers. It also means differentiating our service offering such as with our compelling new landside logistics offering in the world's biggest economy. So I'd like to finish there, and thank you very much for your time, and I look forward to taking some questions.

Christopher Combe

executive
#66

Thank you, Michael. We have a few minutes. Emily?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#67

[ Emily ] from Barclays. I just had a question on GP yields, which still sits around 40% to 50% above prepandemic levels. Could you give some more color on how much is driven -- how much of that was driven by better mix or better volumes or inflation? Or how much of that is driven by better by the disruption, higher profits and disruption, please?

Michael Aldwell

executive
#68

So I can talk about backward looking today, we're not going to talk too much about forward-looking as we're going to preclose in the next couple of days. If you look at our overall group yield, it's increased pretty substantially by some of the deselection that we've done. We did that very intentionally. We did that very intentionally. We had -- and I know Chris has been quite explicit about that with several commodity-based pieces of business that we did not see value in from a long-run perspective. So that's helped support group yield. And of course, you have cyclicality in freight cycle, which is at times a headwind and at times a tailwind. And during parts of last year, it was actually both. So it's a mix in terms of how much impact Red Sea had on the business. And as we get ready to, we'll talk a bit more about what that looks like for the current year.

Christopher Combe

executive
#69

Alex?

Alex Irving

analyst
#70

Alex Irving from Bernstein. My question is around IMC. It sounds like you're integrating this into the Sea Logistics business and changing the way it's run to realize some of those revenue synergies. First of all, is that accurate? The Apex and the [indiscernible] business is clearly run at arm's length. Integration is something that Kuehne has normally done with acquired businesses. What do you see as the biggest risks in that integration process? And how are you mitigating them, please?

Michael Aldwell

executive
#71

So first of all, we're going to keep IMC as a separate entity, but there will be a door very quickly between the walls that we are able to walk through very easily between Kuehne + Nagel and IMC, but they stay an independent organization. I think what you look at our business and when we kind of thought about that case is we spend a lot of money in the drayage space in the U.S. We are moving a lot of volume through that -- in and out of that market. And the opportunity is to look at their organization, our organization as one combined entity from our business portfolio perspective creates the attractive synergy case, right? So instead of paying away that margin to hundreds of third-party providers, we can actually consolidate that inside the IMC business, deliver both a different customer opportunity and a different return profile inside that organization.

Christopher Combe

executive
#72

Great. Lars?

Lars Heindorff

analyst
#73

Lars Heindorff from Nordea. A question on the yield side as well. If I look at the yields in absolute numbers and compare with some of your competitors that also disclose these things, is it to see that during the pandemic, you've seen a very, very significant increase more than most of the rest and also on the way down a fast decline. So the question goes is how do you source your capacity? Are you back to back, are you long or are you short? And how would that affect the yields, if you look a little bit ahead?

Michael Aldwell

executive
#74

Look, I mean, I think you have to kind of separate the 2 things, right? So during the pandemic, it's clear. I think you'll know the numbers, right? We bled off a certain amount of market share against profitability for a couple of years, right? That's no secret. From a long short perspective, the answer is it depends. And it depends on what's going on in the market cycle. We have some of the best trade managers in this industry working for us and they are constantly looking at what the capacity cycle looks like, what the demand cycle looks like, whether or not there's going to be changes in service offerings to understand how much of our capacity we want to have long and short, and that moves all the time. We have also, I think, a different customer book and some different ways of managing that profile, right? And we did a lot of business during the pandemic with big customers. And I think what you've seen from us is an acknowledgment that we had -- we have done less with small- and medium-sized customers than we had done pre, pre, prepandemic and now we're getting back into that space as we see normalized conditions going forward.

Christopher Combe

executive
#75

Thanks, Lars. Alexia, first.

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#76

Alexia Dogani from JPMorgan. So I'm going to ask 2 if I'm allowed. Firstly, you talked about attractive trade lanes. Can you expand as to which are the trade lanes you see attractive at the moment? And then secondly, can you explain a little bit of the gaining market share with SMEs? Do you actually have to work harder to gain market share and grow above GDP, i.e., you need to win a lot of SMEs to move the dial on your market share ambition?

Michael Aldwell

executive
#77

Yes. So firstly, you have to work harder to get close to small- and medium-sized customers. You have to build trust and to do that, you have to be close to them and you have to pay them attention. On the other side, they stay a lot longer, right? And you're not going through constantly these formalized RFQ processes where somebody invites 20 providers into an RFQ and it's a spreadsheet exercise. You're helping someone deal with the marketplace and you're helping them deal with what's going on in their supply chain. And that's also one of the most fun things for our people to do is not to end up getting in their sticking numbers into a spreadsheet all day. I think from an expanding market share perspective, a lot of the heavy lifting to build out that small, medium-sized customer sales force has taken place. We are 85%, 90% from a population perspective where we want to be. And now we're very focused on driving productivity within that sales force and that's making good progress for us.

Christopher Combe

executive
#78

Thanks for the question. I can see there's more demand, but to stay on track, we're now going to shift to air logistics. And perhaps during the break, you can address more of those questions. So thank you, Michael, and we hand over now to Yngve.

Yngve Ruud

executive
#79

Thank you, Chris. Michael. Thank you for keeping me in the #2 spot for the presentations. Sea freight is still ahead. Well done. Yes, it's still good morning. My name is Yngve Ruud. I'm here today to provide you an overview of our progress in Air Logistics and share my confidence in our positioning for the future. I will begin my presentation with a retrospect overview of our performance and a brief update on the projected air freight market for the coming years. In my main segment of the presentation, I will provide insight into some key drivers expected to facilitate our growth moving forward. I've been the Head of air logistics and part of the Management Board since 2016. We had a lot of years in Kuehne+Nagel before, I think it's close to 20 years, and I'm happy to share my findings with you here today. As you can see here, we delivered strong, consistent growth. Our ongoing focus on profitable growth has allowed us to achieve a yield level that is higher than pre-COVID and, at the same time, gain market share. On the yield on conversion rate, we communicated in the last Capital Markets Day in 2023 our ambition to be and to maintain our market-leading position with a clear focus on vertical leadership, efficiency gain, yield optimization and ideal economics. Due to market developments in specific verticals, such as automotive, our cargo mix has been only 67% hard cargo in 2024. As mentioned in 2023, our optimal mix is 70% hard cargo and 30% Hence, our yield is still short of the CHF 100 per 100 kilo communicated for 2026 and our conversion rate is slightly below our ambition. Since 2016, we have consistently increased our market share. Our volume, due to our strategic investments, has driven a compound annual growth rate of 6.1%. We have significantly outperformed the market, which at the CAGR of only 1% for the same period. And I know there is some commentary about growth in 2024 versus market and peers. I want to put this in recent perspective. In 2024, we added more than 100,000 tonnes. This is a market-leading growth compared to anyone in absolute tonnage. Our EBIT CAGR has been 6.1% as well. This demonstrates that we can gain market share and grow our profitability at the same speed. Let me give you a brief overview of the air freight market and why we believe this is a very attractive market for the years to come. The air freight sector is expected to grow by 3% from 2025 to 2028 excluding e-commerce, with demand continuing to outpace supply. This growth will be supported by several trends that indicate increased long-term demand, particularly in our focused verticals and industry. Trends such as a growing world population is expected to drive demand for The aerospace sector anticipate continued growth due to the further development of travel and tourism. Investment in semiconductor equipment is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8% to 9% between 2025 and 2028. The logistics sector for data and service centers, which we announced our new products in 2024 is also poised for growth with spending on public cloud services projected to increase by 22% only in 2025, largely, of course, driven by investment in AI technology. Given the anticipated volatility that everybody has been talking about today in trade patterns, the need for reliable air freight services will remain crucial to maintain a resilient supply chain. There are also significant trends on the supply side. The utilizations of freighter capacity remains high as airlines optimize their fleet to meet growing demands by quickly shifting capacity between trade lanes. The phaseout of aging wide-body freighters will create a gap in the large widebody segment. In recent years, approximately 4% of the fleet in service has been phased out. We anticipate this rate will increase to 5% to 6% over the next few years due to the rise of average age of the global fleet. And just to give you a number on this: In 2019, 8% of the worldwide fleet was older than 30 years. And by 2025, this figure is expected to reach 17%. In addition, we have supply constraints in new deliveries. As a consequence of the global widebody freighter fleet is projected to grow only by 1% annually through 2028. We heard a couple of times today. And as you also heard from Stefan and Michael, scale matters, you will all understand that later in my presentation. Our historical growth and investments led us to #1 position in 2021. We have successfully defended that position through today. If we are surpassed maybe for a brief period of time in the near future, we firmly believe we will regain that leading position. I will now give you some more insights into 3 key design elements for future growth. First, we will continue to invest in industry-leading solution for growing sectors such as aerospace, semiconductors, health care and perishable. Secondly, and this is a point I will elaborate a bit more during my presentation, we have developed a scalable, asset-light network and our gateway model will enable us to adapt to trading patterns and change in customer requirements. The gateway setup support growth, creating procurement synergies and increase profitability across various commodity production cycle and pricing dynamics. And finally, our investments in technology over the years and with the high adoption of eTouch capabilities, our redesigned organization now has the foundation to be much more commercially focused. With our continuing investments, we are already market leaders in aerospace, health care and perishable. In the aerospace vertical, we recently relaunched our AOG product, so aircraft on ground products, with the most comprehensive service offering, including our premium offering with Sterling, which is one of our dedicated go-to-market setups. And just to highlight, in 2024, we shipped more than 2,000 aircraft engines for our customers. With which you just saw on the video earlier today, we are refreshing our full product life cycle and expect an improved commercial offering starting with our specialized clinical trials and gene cell therapy solutions, which is all operated by QuickStart, a separate go-to-market proposition. And only last year, in 2024, we delivered more than 95 million vaccines for our customers. For perishable, we have further expanding with different segments. We have achieved significant success the last few years with our new designed fresh solution. For 2024, we transported almost 700,000 tonnes of various products, including flours, seafood, produce and other food stuff. We talked about semicon in 2023. We are well on track to reach our 2026 ambition of CHF 500 million in turnover for the semicon industry. And we only launched that service offering in 2023. We have further expanded our capabilities in high-tech sectors with dedicated solution for server and data centers, where we expect accelerated growth. Over the medium and long term, innovation in products and solution is key to maintain and grow our leading positions. We have new launches planned for later this year and in 2026, such as an end-to-end cool corridor in health care, and realtime monitoring in aerospace. For semicon, we will further expand our portfolio to support this very attractive industry. The development of verticals is the backbone of the creation of a global network, which I will explain a bit more in details in a couple of minutes. And lastly, we will continue our successful targeted acquisition strategy. As explained in the Capital Markets Day in 2023, we are targeting 3 forms of value creation with our acquisition approaches, all aimed at top line synergies. One, we want to create a unique positioning. With the acquisition of Apex, we have a partnership with the Partners Group and the Apex management. This combination, together with KN's global capabilities to create that unique value proposition; two, dual brand strategy by maintaining distinct brands, such as Apex, we can enhance top line synergies. We can support accelerated growth, and we create a different go-to-market strategy. And last, three, strengthen our focus vertical and perishable networks with bolt-on acquisition. This to enhance our leading position and to support our network and gateway expansion, which is an important driver that I will touch upon a bit later. So let's talk about network and gateway expansion. Are we unique positioning within the industry allows us to scale and adapt our network in response to demand variations. This network has 30 gateways, serving more than 90 origins, and it's supported by 100 charters and 35,000 commercial capacity every week. Scale matters. It is the backbone for growth, not only for our focused verticals, but also general cargo. The gateway strategy includes acting as an internal carrier, centralizing procurement and carrier management, creating an asset-light capacity network with controlled charters and the commercial allocation. This support growth by driving opportunities to penetrate new markets, new customer segments and creating synergies in our procurements. Here you see the global coverage of our gateways is located throughout the world. We rapidly expanded in 2024, and further expansion planned for this year and 2026. All our gateways will be running on proprietary software, which is uniquely designed for the specific needs. Let's have a look at our gateway -- our network expansion. To give you a better view, you see here 2019 and we want to show you how our service offering has increased over the last few years. 2019, we had 13 weekly charters, serving perishables, transatlantic and transpacific. Here, you see 2025. Frequency and capacity has greatly improved including Latin America, Mexico and intra-Asia. Talking about intra-Asia, I would like to emphasize our rebalancing capabilities, which enable us to swiftly adjust capacity across our gateways. In Asia, in response to disruption, rapid changes in macroeconomic conditions, or fluctuation in demand. Our customers, they ask for global coverage with a dense weekly frequency to cover everything from planned air freight to emergency freight such as aircraft engines. With this setup, we are very flexible regarding trade changes. Tariff implications and other disruption with a global coverage of gateways with an agile network configuration. But without people and technology, our growth ambition will not be possible. Stefan mentioned that our refocused organization is designed for growth. By removing layers, we have transformed our organization for quick and empowered decision-making. The improved global transparency we have today and the alignment without regional influence are major improvements. The execution speed and global consistency are game changers for a growth agenda. This new organization can only work with advanced technology. We have moved our GMS and other applications to the cloud, which enable us to accelerate innovation and improve our capabilities and capacity, both locally and at the corporate level. To give you an example, one of high priority initiatives is AI-driven pricing. In late 2024, we successfully -- improved piloted this global application on 24 lanes out of the U.K. Just a few months later, we expanded to more than 100 lanes. And in 2025, we are rolling out this application to all our significant countries. So what does it mean? The AI pricing application uses a digital twin to simulate pricing dynamics in logistics. It combines several models into a comprehensive simulation, allowing for a seamless graphical presentation of past and future quotes. At the customer -- individual customer level, the application measure price recommendation and optimizes the quote as underlying parameter changes. With this application, we expect to improve speed-to-market, pricing accuracy and yields. We are super excited about this. To maximize our growth potential. We have fully aligned our commercial strategy with a new focused sales organization, as Stefan explained well before, both globally and locally. On a global scale, we are concentrating on developing trade lanes and optimizing network utilization and expansion. Locally, we have empowered our teams to attract national accounts. Additionally, we have broadened our customer segmentation versus what we discussed in 2023. To engage with local medium-sized accounts more effectively. We achieved this with close collaboration with Sea Logistics, as Michael mentioned. So in conclusion, we have worked diligently over the past few years to develop our solutions for our customer and to enhance the resilient in their global supply chain. We have maintained our #1 position. We have increased our yield to a sustainable level. And we have built capabilities to support future growth and gain market share. We are committed to investing in solutions for our targeted growth industries. We have established an industry-leading asset-light control network and gateway structure. Our organization is now leaner, more agile and empowered with a clear customer focus. We are well prepared to address the challenges and opportunities in the airfreight sectors. We are confident we will continue to deliver strong performance and value to our customers and stakeholders. Thank you for attention.

Unknown Executive

executive
#80

Thank you, Inge. We now have a few moments for questions, Air Logistics. Muneeba?

Muneeba Kayani

analyst
#81

Muneeba Kayani from Bank of America. So I wanted to hear your thoughts on e-commerce within Air Logistics. I noticed that was not as one of the verticals on your slide. So how do you think about e-commerce within your business? And kind of related to that, lots of talk about removal of the de minimis exemption in the U.S. and even in Europe, like how do you see that impacting the air cargo market?

Yngve Ruud

executive
#82

Good. So thank you for the question. I just want to bet that was going to be the first question of the day. So as Stefan has told before, eCom is a very small part of our business, less it's a single-digit percentage. We have seen and we saw that in February that suddenly the eCom stopped for 3 days because of a decision taken in U.S. eCom is here to stay for sure. eCom will find is ways. Will we see different trade patterns for eCom? Yes, we'll probably U.S. be less of an important market and maybe South America, which we already see a bigger part, Middle East and Southeast Asia, clearly. De minimis. There will be changes. If it goes from T86 to T1, it will be major disruptions. It is going to be kept under T86, so the custom clearance procedure with a custom clearance fee and a tariff. You look at the Chinese players versus American players, there is still going to be between 25% and 30% discount or cheaper for the consumer, even with the custom clearance fee and the tariffs. So it will stay, and it will change. For the industry perspective, you will see, as I already said in my presentation, the carriers are shifting capacity quickly to different trade lanes when a shift like this is happening. But the output from South China, which Hong Kong will continue, but it might go to different destinations.

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#83

Alexia from JPMorgan. Just back on the volume outlook for air freight, more from the market's perspective, you also show in your presentation that since 2016, volumes have grown at 1% per annum. That's well below GDP. If you assess it differently if we had assumed a relationship to one, actually, volumes in 24 are 15% below the normalized level. What gives you confidence that actually airfreight volumes can regain this parity to GDP? And do you observe any structural changes in the kind of verticals use of airfreight more broadly to explain what has happened in the past 5, 6 years.

Yngve Ruud

executive
#84

Thank you for the question. If you look at 2024 versus 2019. We are on a lower base because we had a huge drop in '23, and it hasn't really picked up again from normal commercial air freights in 2024. So historically, if you go back to 2019 and look at the projected growth in a normalized environment, we believe what the market believe and it's not only us, also external sources that believe around 3% will the normal growth be and is driven, as I said, perishable business will grow 4% -- 3% to 4% every year. Semicon with the expansion of data centers around the world, you will see a growth. And all health care products is clearly something which is -- will continue to be -- from an airfreight perspective and very important and attractive industry. So unless there is any dramatic changes in the future, we believe the airfreight market will start to pick up.

Unknown Executive

executive
#85

Thanks for the question. We can sneak in one more one, Alex.

Alexander Irving

analyst
#86

Alex Irving from Bernstein. My question is around the outturn on the unit gross profit and the conversion ratio. You mentioned at the start of your presentation that in 2024, you have 67% hard cargo, and you'd like that to be 70 with the other 30 perishables, and that was keeping some pressure on the unit gross profit and the conversion ratio, right. Customer impact 2 years, you were looking for CHF 100 of gross profit per 100 kilograms, 40% conversion. If you were at that 70-30 split that you're targeting, where would we be in relation to those targets and what explains the rest of the gap?

Yngve Ruud

executive
#87

So if you would take 2024, and you would apply the 70-30, you would come to a yield around 90, 90 something, 91%. If you look at the exchange rates, differences in 2024. That was a CHF 3, which is lowering the yield. So you would be on 93, 94 with the 70-30 split. The difference is clearly the market pressure. When 2023 came down and the volume went down and 2024, where you saw the pressure from the eComs that is explain the rest. So it's not 100, but if you apply and would come to the 70-30, I think we would be reasonably close.

Unknown Executive

executive
#88

Thanks for the question, Alex. We will now take a break for 15 minutes. And then we have the last and final segment of the day with road and contract logistics. Thank you. [Break]

Unknown Executive

executive
#89

We will now shift over to Road Logistics. And I will hand it directly over to Hans Rodi. Thanks very much.

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#90

Thank you, Chris. So welcome also from my side to the Kuehne + Nagel Capital Markets Day. My name is Hans Rodi. I'm since 30 months Board member of Kuehne + Nagel responsible for Road Logistics. I'm serving customers as part of logistics service providers since 30 years. Let us start with a brief review of the key initiatives I presented at the Capital Market Day 2 years ago. When we drafted our road map 2026, we had expected relevant markets to grow with an even higher growth rate for Kuehne + Nagel. This assumption we have based on superior solutions and expansion of our product offering into more profitable geographies like Middle East, Africa and Asia, and on high-yielding service offerings like customs brokerage. But we could not achieve these growth ambitions as we are facing strong headwinds with respect to market growth in our core markets of Germany, France and the U.S. I will come back to these market conditions on the next chart. But let's first have a look at what we have achieved during the last 2 years of Roadmap 2026 implementation in Road Logistics. We have accelerated the rollout of our propriority transport management system roadblock self-developed in 51 countries and across all 4 continents where we are active in road -- as Road Logistics. We believe we are still the only road logistics provider worldwide that serves customers with one unique TMS. And this is a key foundation of a consistent cross-regional product offering. We have built our own road carrier solution that seamlessly connects more than 38,000 carriers to KN systems. These carriers are part of the KN Road ecosystem. Based on both, the unified TMS landscape and the road carrier solution, we are now offering real-time visibility solutions to our customers. Be it on truck level, what we call the advanced visibility or on item level, Stefan was referring to it already. We call it Max Visibility offering. We are developing these solutions together with our partner, Chorus, part of Alphabet's X factory. We have positioned road logistics as market leading when it comes to sustainability solutions. For example, we are the first land logistics provider offering Book and Claim Solutions for battery electric trucks on our own fleet, and we are rolling it out now with our carriers as well for the [indiscernible] fleets. We have successfully expanded our offering, especially related to cross-border corridor solutions in Middle East and Africa and North America, this came through internal growth. And in Asia Pacific through the acquisition of City Zone Express, a leading FTL and LTL provider in Southeast Asia. And finally, in a world where everybody talks about tariffs right now, customs. We have grown organically in North -- in Europe and North America. And we have also significantly increased our footprint in North America via the acquisition of Farrow, a leading Canadian customs program. Let us come back to the market conditions in Road Logistics and start with a quick reminder on Road Logistics markets. A global road market does not exist. Our markets are local, and market conditions varied greatly across the regions. We have managed to maintain our turnover on pre-COVID level, but have not seen successful growing our business. Why? Because we faced strong headwinds on the demand side in Europe and the U.S. last year. The sharp decline of carrier capacity in Europe resulted in high pressure on our gross profit margin, which came on top of the flat demand. And additionally, inflationary tendencies and increasing regulations and administration put high pressure on our costs. On a positive side, we have experienced growing demand of our cross-border corridor solutions in Middle East, Africa as well as in Asia, especially driven by our global accounts. And also customs brokerage and trade consultancy offer solid growth potential in the world, where the complexity of global trade is significantly increasing. We do not anticipate the market conditions in the U.S. and in Europe to change short term. Consequently, we will focus on following actions as a prerequisite for future growth. We will not compromise on increasing our prices through general rate increases in the contractual part of our business, which is predominantly our groupage network. These end, we will continue to adjust quickly to fluctuations in the very volatile spot and -- spot price environment that especially we are facing on the LTL and FTL piece. To continue offering solid solutions to our customers, we will continue to develop our road carrier solution as a platform, which will position Kuehne + Nagel as the first choice to our carriers. And of course, we will continue to manage our cost with high level of discipline. This means reducing IT costs by continuing to consolidate our TMS landscape, shifting standardized processes into global services wherever possible and continuing cost management based on granular KPIs at every level of the organization, which will lead to the fact that we adopt our direct costs to volume development that we see. These measures will ensure that we protect our top line and our achieved conversion rate. And based on these actions, we will grow our business. What is our driver for growth? The big advantage for KN Road compared to competition is that we have access to Kuehne + Nagel global accounts for whom we are increasingly a service provider across the regions. Through our high-performance network and specialized solution, we can also enable sea logistics and air logistics to deliver seamless end-to-end supply chain solutions. Let me tell you in more detail how this works. Standard services, groupage, FTL, LTL, are a prerequisite for sellers' solid service delivery for all our customer segments. For our global accounts, it is becoming increasingly important that we can offer these solutions cross regionally, which we can do in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific and Middle East and Africa as a clear differentiating factor of Kuehne + Nagel. But the standard offering is not enough for many of our global accounts. That's why we have built tailored and scalable solutions that serve the specific needs of targeted customers. I give you just some examples. Delivering of server racks often transported by air logistics to data centers, complex last mile spare part delivery to wind park or solar farms as part of the renewable energy vertical that Michael Aldwell was referring to already. GDP conform FTL and LTL shipments in pharma as part of the health care vertical. You have seen [ Nico Zako ] presenting here what we can do across all business units in pharma health care and in in-fab moves for semiconductors as part of the semicon vertical that [indiscernible] was referring to. All these requirements are complex, and customers have high demand for real-time visibility. This is where all our visibility solutions come into play. And the same applies for our sustainability of us. This is how Road Logistics contributes to true end-to-end solutions that fulfill complex customer demand globally. And then we have defined another growth driver, which is customs brokerage. I was already eluding and presenting on that on the last Capital Market Days. So the market for customer brokerage has been growing in volumes and complexity for decades. We do not expect complexity in world trade to decline. And consequently, we see interesting growth opportunities for Kuehne + Nagel. We complemented our service offering in North America by acquiring Farrow this year -- last year, which has proven competence at the Canadian and the Mexican borders to the U.S.A. We have increased our business development resources in North America, Europe, Asia Pac and Middle East and Africa significantly. Our customs orders volume has grown organically at a CAGR of 18.8% between 2020. This is when we launched the product to 2024 and by 53%, including Farrow. We are continuing our rollout of modern customs platforms to ensure high efficiency and superior visibility to our customers. And we have defined an operating model based on the shared service center set up in Cebu, mostly for the European part of the business that is fully scalable and support growth. Let me conclude. Kuehne + Nagel Road has laid the technological foundation to manage market dynamics consistently. We are differentiated through visibility, sustainability, tailored solutions and global presence. And we are the first and last link for true Kuehne + Nagel end-to-end solution because please do never forget every transport starts and ends on wheels. Thank you very much.

Unknown Executive

executive
#91

So we will go immediately into the... [Presentation]

Gianfranco Sgro

executive
#92

This video represents just a quick view of our latest generation of fulfillment center, where you see human, and robots coexist in a harmonic and orchestrated environment to generate throughput and quality unthinkable a few years ago. Just imagine that this operation runs at a production level of 18,000 parcels per hour. So that is impressive for all of us. Ladies and gentlemen, a very good day from me and the warm welcome also to those that are here, of course, and those that are connected online. In the next 20 minutes, I would like, first of all, to take a look at the trajectory of success that we have achieved over the last few years. To clarify why the contract logistics business model is a fundamental and complementary component of the KN Group business model. And finally, to illustrate the growth and value drivers that will underpin our development in the coming years. My name is Gianfranco Sgro. I have the pleasure and the owner to serve the Kuehne + Nagel Management Board as Executive Vice President responsible for contract logistics for more than 10 years. Before that, I serve a blue-chip industrial company as Chief Operating Officer. We have delivered. We are very satisfied with the results we have achieved in contract logistics in recent years. First, we have met our target to grow slightly above the market. Our top line grew by 7% in 2024 before FX, with particularly positive dynamics in many countries such as Japan, India, Turkey, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Mexico, U.S., Canada and Brazil. Over proportional growth in the health care vertical contribute to both top and bottom line. Second, even more noteworthy is the growth in profit. In 2024, we reached a record EBIT performance of CHF 227 million. And our superior compound annual growth rate of 13% since 2021 reflects our ability to execute at a premium level. Our conversion rate as well has grown by 170 bps since 2021 and 80 bps only from 2023 to 2024, representing, therefore, a leading market reference despite lower economy of scale towards some of our peers. At the heart of our financial performance is the continuous improvement of our operation under the guidance of more than 500 engineers who work on our production system, processes and automation system. We return a portion of this productivity and throughput improvement to our customers as part of the retention plan, but they are also the backbone of our EBIT improvement. Our customers are at the core of our success and the constant focus on all what we do. We are obsessed by improving our customer engagement and ultimately improving the experience on their end customer. And we constantly listen to them. There was a question before, every year through increasingly sophisticated customer engagement platform. We monitor how our customer satisfaction is improving. We do not only have a steadily improving Net Promoter Score, but we also received 1,000 pieces of feedback, which constitute a vital input for developing new products and improving our services. Contract logistics has a very intimate customer engagement model that clearly rewards long-term strategic positioning. In 2024, our new contracts surpassed an average duration of 6 years with peak of 10 years and top renewal rates. Just in 2024 alone, we signed new engagement with total contract value of CHF 1.8 billion. Our loyalty or what we call retention rate, measure our ability to renew a contract that is natural expiration, and we have a very high success rate close to 95%. And last but not least, we have managed to significantly improve our mix. For example, we have more than doubled the health care share of business, and we transformed the traditional consumer business into omnichannel. In both cases, the new mix is favorable to our profit generation. That said, the next couple of slides will touch on the characteristic of the contract logistics market. And how this model contributes to the group profile. The market, as said before by Stefan as well is growing slightly above GDP. And what makes it especially attractive are factors such as the growth of outsourcing, the growth of multichannel logistics, and we spoke about the recent reengineering of supply chain that are generating additional volume in the domestic market. The market, obviously, has peaks related to specific sales campaign of our customers. But the overall volatility is low, which allows for better planning and consequently, reduce the risk. Strategic services in contract logistics refers mainly to the design and implementation of fulfillment center, as you saw before, and delivery services to the various customer sales channels. The footprint of these operations are not easily interchangeable and requires sophisticated engineering and medium- to long-term setup. So you can easily understand why interaction with customer is strategic and highly complex. These allow us to interact with our customers at the highest level of the organization. The combination of increasing barriers to entry linked mainly to an exponential use of new technology and automation and a still high level of fragmentation create very favorable condition for a company with our position to grow. And we serve these growing and strategic market with a business model that lowers the risk profile for the group. How did we manage to develop a successful model? So in contract logistics, the fundamental of business execution must be very strong and ingrained at every level of the organization. This is what we have managed to achieve with a high level of discipline. Start with pricing and flawless implementation of new contracts that is now close to 100%. We have approximately 100 new implementation per year, and they need to generate positive cash flow from day 1 and a very high level of customer satisfaction. Implementation is by far the most sensitive part of the customer engagement. And this is where our performance has improved the most in the last years. At the next level of interaction our research and development department focused on our cost competitiveness and on introduction of new technologies. These are keys for the improvement of profitability of our contract's year-on-year. The combination of repricing, cross-selling, upselling productivity improvement versus our contractual obligation, generate increased cash flow throughout the life of the contract. We have also worked extensively on our contractual framework and have created a model with low-risk exposure on CapEx and financial commitments. So a contract sign and manage according to the criteria above generate increasing cash flow for long periods. And at the same time, a very high loyalty rate reflects our obsession with premium delivery and our cost and attention to our client feedbacks. Well, we talk about our achievements in the recent years and the characteristic of this market and how we have managed to create a successful model for the group. Now I would like to move on to the last part of my presentation, where I will outline the growth and value generation factors that we will deploy in the coming years to build on a solid foundation of operational and financial excellence. We will not stop here. Complacency is by far not an option. Our ability to grow at a higher rate than GDP and gain market share depends on our ability to continue to look critically at 3 factors, who we serve, what and where we serve, how we serve. Who we serve? We plan to increase our share of wallet with blue chip companies and to support the growth of selected early champions. What and where we serve? We will continue to develop industry-specific services where customer trends intersect with our in-depth knowledge of market dynamics. And then, how we serve? We plan to widen the technological gap between ourselves and our competitors, especially those with less firepower on new technologies. Let me explain a little bit more these 3 points. Who we serve? We will continue on the path of organic growth that we have already mapped out. We are confident that our cross-selling and upselling opportunity with existing customers will continue to be the backbone of the contract logistics development. We will continue to target large customers with long-term contracts and with a very high coverage in our commitments. But a new area that we start to -- where we have started to achieve very interesting results, and we will continue to do so is our engagement with medium-sized companies with international growth ambitions. In this sector, of course, we must be first very careful in the selection and be ready to become an agile partner that can support double-digit growth rate of our clients. So far, I must confess that we have achieved excellent results, and please allow me to share just this highlight. With just 3 successful midsized brands, we achieved a new sales stream of CHF 200 million in less than 3 years. We can aspire to become a true growth engine for this kind of customer because we give them access to global capabilities that would otherwise be difficult, if not impossible, for them to find. And also allow me to say the power of saying no to clients type that do not fit with our strategic development. Now let's talk about what and where to serve. Fueling our growth rate will be a differentiated focus on the 44 domestic markets that we serve today. We will be making specific investment on some of the markets with high strategic potential. But not only that, it's not only where, let me spend a minute on another concept that is a fundamental piece in order to continue our success. Being a powerful and big logistic operator is no longer enough. Our customers want strategic partners who speak their language, who invest in the dynamics of the market and who they can rely on for their future strategies. We are constantly adapting our operating model to this direction increasing year-by-year our intimacy with our customers. And one of the most remarkable results is when we can anticipate and not only react to specific market trends with the aim of becoming the first to serve. Let me give you a recent leading example, again, in health care. You heard a lot about that today. This is a vertical where the Kuehne + Nagel Group and the individual business units continue to maintain global leadership. We are expanding the number of certified centers with extremely high and critical value-added services, leveraging our integrated logistics services that are now adopted by 6 out of the 10 global pharma companies. And we constantly look at bolt-on acquisitions that can complement our offering from a geographic or capability standpoint. Together with the 2 market-leading pharma companies, we anticipate the high-growth trend in anti-obesity drugs, and we create a new logistic network for specific market and customers. The results are clear. And in this specific segment, our sales will multiply by 5 in the next 2 years. A key part of our development will always be how we serve our customer. And here, as mentioning, the technology component helps to raise the already very high barrier to entry. The realization of complex automation system, coordination of digital platform, exchanging millions of messages per minute, the revolutionary technology using robotics and process innovation AI agents and applications, these are all transforming human process profoundly. We have a one-of-a-kind base of automated operation. We have assembled an ecosystem of companies and partners around us that allow us to respond to any customer demand no matter the technology involved. We have 3,000 robots in operation. And this is, allow me also to explain, it's not only related to what we call the digital design fulfillment center, so the new one coming into the market. An area of growing interest is the introduction of automation system in existing and traditional operation. This is what we call retrofitting. It's a very complex project when you are intervening on an ongoing and existing operation with a major introduction of automation, but it generates very important effects: reduction of manpower, increase of throughput, medium-term paybacks with less and less dependency on labor, that is one of the critical factors. These projects will continue. We are introducing the first no-touch warehouse where, for the first time, the entire floor from the receipt to shipments will require no human touch. And this year also, we will introduce the first artificial intelligence application that will allow us to manage our operation with greater efficiency and speed. We have talked a lot and we saw also the Adidas fulfillment project in Italy, which is now in full operation. But as we speak, we are implementing similar operation in different countries around the world with a high rate of scalability and efficiency. In conclusion, I would like to go back to -- for a moment to our title: Scaling up a successful model. I hope that I have illustrated both the aspect that makes us particularly proud of the achievements but also the relentless effort that we will put into continuing to grow this model. We will grow with discipline and stay vigilant about all our key financial indicators. We have a return on capital employed, Markus presented, exceeding 25% and the stable capital intensity between 3% and 3.5%. This represent a well-managed business model, and we will continue in this direction. We will maintain our business with low risk profile on our financial commitments, but it's not only that. We are creating capabilities to set Contract Logistics up for continued success. And this means a comprehensive agenda of commercial and operational innovation, further differentiation in the market and a state-of-the-art team, a portfolio of customers who will continue to trust us as agents of their commercial success and the constantly evolving portfolio of products and services, supported by our solid reputation in operational excellence, scaling up a successful model. Thank you very much for your attention.

Christopher Combe

executive
#93

Thank you, Gianfranco. We invite back to the stage as well. Hansjoerg, and will now do our joint Q&A for both business units. Alex?

Alexander Irving

analyst
#94

Alex Irving from Bernstein. My question is for Gianfranco. So you talked here about we were not going to stop here, industry specific services, cross-selling, upselling, higher energy barriers, deployment of tech, yet the conversion margin is stable for the next 6 years. Help me understand why, please?

Gianfranco Sgro

executive
#95

Okay. That was the first question. I think that you were expecting the first one. So we -- the message is, I believe, the following. We made an extraordinary journey in the last year. I mentioned from 2021, 170 bps improvement, 80 bps in the last 12 months. This is a journey that is unique sometimes in a company. As I said, complacency is not an option, and this is not part of our DNA. But I mean, in the future, also, if you compare our conversion rate versus peers that have a much higher economy of scale, this is still quite a benchmark. So that is the message that we want to convey.

Christopher Combe

executive
#96

Thank you, Alex. Andy?

Andy Chu

analyst
#97

Andy Chu from Deutsche Bank. Just a question on Contract Logistics. In terms of the landscape of contract logistics, there are many different owners of contract logistics assets, the freight forwarders, increasingly the container shippers, private equity. Could you maybe just elaborate why you -- I guess, you believe that the best owners of these assets are potentially the freight forwarders?

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#98

So who is the best owner for assets, right? And I think there's a split answer to that. Generally, the assets that are providing capacity in a more standardized way, I think we are not the right owners. For certain assets where differentiation becomes a unique selling opportunity, like on the pharma side or on the robotics even, to a certain extent, that are usually specialized, I think there is an option that we might become owners. But also here from a financial engineering point of view, straight ownership is not necessarily required to get the benefit out of it. So I think it's a cascading decision-making process that goes from generic asset utilization to specialization and afterwards towards what is the best way of financing solution.

Christopher Combe

executive
#99

Michael?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#100

I guess, asset utilization is quite important in that business. And my question is, how do you manage the risk for the 20% which are not backed by contracts?

Gianfranco Sgro

executive
#101

Yes. So one of the -- you know perfectly that one of the asset utilization is reflected in what we call idle space as well. That is a commitment on -- and we trade at 97-plus percent. And this is a number that we also disclosed. So it's a very high utilization also in the industry versus our peers. So that is, in all honesty, the 20% are also part of the companies that provide more agility. So we keep that part dedicated to this company that has a very interesting dynamic of growth. So it's never -- as you see at the end, this is not a problem that we are facing. It's something that we have to, of course, look carefully and is part of our continuous analysis of our engineers.

Christopher Combe

executive
#102

Thanks for the question, Michael. Alexia.

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#103

I have two questions, one for Contract Logistics and one for Road. I'll start with Contract Logistics. Gianfranco, can you talk a little bit about the outsourcing trends you're seeing? Because it would be good to get an update there. And can I just clarify, the CapEx expectations for the road map are higher than what we discussed 3 years ago or 2 years ago. Is the incremental CapEx going into Contract Logistics? And why isn't growth faster than what we thought 2 years ago? Shall I give the Road as well?

Christopher Combe

executive
#104

Maybe answer that one first, then...

Gianfranco Sgro

executive
#105

Okay. So I'll start with the CapEx. The CapEx is not growing versus the previous. You saw also quite a stable representation of our CapEx made by Markus. So we'll continue -- and this is what we said also our CapEx intensity, we continue to fluctuate between 3% and 3.5%. Outsourcing, of course, is heterogeneous across the various markets. We see, in general, a positive trend from that perspective. Because as I mentioned and probably by the video, you can -- this kind of complexity is difficult to handle for operators. And also from a customer perspective, they do not have these competencies anymore. So it's natural that using and leveraging players like Kuehne+Nagel becomes more and more interesting. So it's a positive trend from my perspective. And then if you do it in two different geographies, there is enough space to grow.

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#106

As for Road, so on Road, can you just remind us what your focus is between groupage, LTL and FTL and whether you see different trends there? And if you see more optimism emerging in either part of the network in Europe from the recent kind of investments that European common numbers are looking to do.

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#107

Thank you for the question. We serve customers, and the production mode can be groupage, FTL or LTL. So that is why we don't look into FTL, groupage or LTL markets. It's a customer need, and we can operate always in combination of either it is a groupage and LTL and FTL shipment depending on the size. That is the flexibility we can offer on that market. Where we are not active is big asset-based FTL business because our business model in road logistics in Europe is asset-light. So we don't go into heavy investment into own fleet, which is required, if you are in what we call the big FTL market. And then, of course, I mean, the market in Europe will consolidate in the next couple of weeks, we should even say, with what is happening. And you can be sure Kuehne+Nagel will play a very active role in that consolidation process as well.

Christopher Combe

executive
#108

Thank you, Alexia. Christian?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#109

Christian from UBS. Could you please tell us what's the exposure to Germany in each of the divisions? And Chris, if you can also for Air & Sea? And if you allow me the second quick one for Contract Logistics, could you give us a rough idea, open book versus closed book contracts was the split in big lines?

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#110

So on Germany, I think we don't give any -- I leave it because the question was for the [indiscernible]. So I leave this question to Markus.

Markus Blanka-Graff

executive
#111

So I think it's a simple answer. I mean you know that historically, obviously, we grew out of the German market historically, right? So it's still a very relevant piece of business. It is certainly stronger in the road business and followed by the Contract Logistics business, sea and airfreight business, you always know where sits the customer. Customer sits where the importer is or where the exporter sits. So it's very hard to tell. But I would say from a country ranking perspective, and you can also see that, I think, from our annual report, from a country ranking perspective, within the top 3.

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#112

And on the open and closed book, we are a big fan of closed book because this allows and is a stimulus for -- to continue to look at increased productivity and move part of that into our profit. So I would say roughly that we have a 20% of business in open book and 80% into closed book.

Christopher Combe

executive
#113

Lars?

Lars Heindorff

analyst
#114

Lars Heindorff from Nordea. Just a follow-up on the Road business question on the split between groupage, FTL, LTL, which is -- do you have any desire to grow one of those 3 segments more than the other ones, also in light of your ambitions of keeping the conversion ratio flat? After all, I think the groupage carriers are probably in need of more tight and dense network compared to the two others, typically also carries higher gross profits and hence, lower conversion ratios.

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#115

So our guess is that approximately of the FTL and LTL business we are doing, 70% is related to the fact that we offer groupage as well. This is why our typical conversion rate that we would see in FTL, LTL is high. But it's dependent on what we offer on the groupage system. So this is, again, while we don't differentiate now on growth areas into be it groupage, FTL and LTL, what is required in order to serve a pan-European customer properly, and that is very much always based on our groupage network. That needs density, of course, We have the density required and needed in order to be a significant player on that marketplace in groupage. There might be the one or the other geographical area where we can still expand and enter. But the base and the foundation is given, and that is feeding then a good conversion rate, FTL and LTL businesses.

Christopher Combe

executive
#116

We have time for one or two more. Andy has a follow-up.

Andy Chu

analyst
#117

Andy Chu from Deutsche Bank. A question on Road. In terms of the European piece, which is under pressure, do you have a strong view of what German fiscal stimulus and also a peace solution Ukraine might do for the road business going forward in terms of capacity, driver capacity?

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#118

Do we have a clear view today on something that was announced a couple of weeks ago and still undergoing and in the discussion, especially when we talk about the German stimulus program? Clear view, I wouldn't say. It's definitely giving growth potential for Road Logistics in Europe. That is crystal clear. If now the spend goes where it is planned to go as well, into economic growth investment, and that relates for the infrastructure piece of the stimulus program as well as for the defense and military piece of it. And Ukraine, I mean, is a key strategic pillar for us as well the moment it opens up again. We are still active with more than 350 colleagues in Ukraine. So we are prepared the moment it opens up to play our role as well as logistics provider into rebuilding Ukraine. And, of course, I mean, more Eastern Europe then opens up again, it will bring trucking capacity as well back into Western Europe. So that is what we see on a very positive side. On the European development, on Germany, I wouldn't be that skeptical neither because still, within Europe, Germany is by far the biggest logistics market. So it's good that we have a good presence in Germany as well.

Christopher Combe

executive
#119

Great. We're going to finish up with Michael and then Satish.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#120

Just one on Road. You highlighted kind of increasing bankruptcies in Road in Europe, and that's kind of something we've seen in the U.S., is something that brings kind of supply and demand of Road freight into balance. Are you seeing that kind of -- the market come more into balance now even with weak demand with more bankruptcies in Europe?

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#121

So we see difficult situation economically on both sides, our demand and our supply, which is a direct consequence and on the demand situation. So trucking market has to become again more attractive then in order to people come back. This happens fast as we know historically because the barriers to entry are not very high. So when demand stabilizes or picks up, trucking capacity will come back. And this is our strategy is, we are the first one to benefit from it because we offer superior solution to our trucking partners. In the U.S., the situation is a little bit different. So we haven't seen the supply going down the last year. That is what caused the freight recession in the U.S. the last 2.5 years. So fairly high supply and the demand that is a little bit under distress.

Christopher Combe

executive
#122

Thank you. And Satish, last question.

Sathish Sivakumar

analyst
#123

Sathish Sivakumar. Firstly, on the Road Logistics, you talked about the unique TMS platform that you have. Can you help us understand how does that position versus the market in terms of the TMS platform? And what does it mean in terms of eTouch, which we talked about more and in-depth on R&C? Where does the Road Logistics fit in that eTouch transformation?

Hansjoerg Rodi

executive
#124

So, first of all, the TMS is the core, it's like the operating system, it's the OS, right, that we can connect them to all our surrounding Kuehne+Nagel systems as well. So that is offering the possibility to process globally in a very similar manner. And that is driving then productivity and is allowing as well all eTouch initiatives that we enrolled, of course, are driving as well. So connection to our myKN booking platform, to the quotation platform, consistent and easy API and EDI connection with customers globally because it's always the same standard that we can serve. So it's a prerequisite to drive consistency, efficiency and effectiveness in Road.

Christopher Combe

executive
#125

And with that, thank you, Hansjoerg, thank you Gianfranco. I will now hand over to Stefan for some closing remarks.

Stefan Paul

executive
#126

Thank you very much, Chris. Hansjoerg, Gianfranco, thank you very much. Thank you very much as well to my other two business unit colleagues. You have heard now from them directly what they are going to do with their business units in order to deliver on our ambition to deliver profitable growth in the next years to come. I hope that gives you the same confidence as we have in our ability to deliver as promised. Before we conclude and we close, you will find a post card in your bags outside where we have basically summarized the key takeaways just in case you have not taken enough notes during the couple of -- last couple of hours. With this as well to the WebEx colleagues, thank you very much for listening, for your good questions. Stay tuned. And we are very happy to continue the dialogue in the next weeks and quarters to come. Thank you very much for listening in today, and goodbye.

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