MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 4, 2026

TWSE TW Information Technology Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment Earnings Calls 64 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

Operator
#1

Welcome to the MediaTek 2025 Fourth Quarter Investors Conference Call. Financial results and presentations for today's call are available on the Investors section of the company website at www.mediatek.com. Now I would like to turn the call over to Ms. Jessie Wang, Deputy Director of Investor Relations. Ms. Wang, please go ahead.

Jessie Wang

Executives
#2

Good afternoon, everyone. Joining us today are Dr. Rick Tsai, MediaTek's CEO; and Mr. David Ku, MediaTek's CFO. Mr. Ku will report our fourth quarter results, and then Dr. Tsai will provide our prepared remarks. After that, we will open for Q&A. As a reminder, today's presentation will provide forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. The statements are subject to various risks and factors, which may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements. The presentation materials supplement non-TIFRS financial measures. Earnings distribution will be made in accordance with financial statements based on TIFRS. For details, please refer to the safe harbor statement in our presentation slides. In addition, all contents provided in this teleconference are for your reference only, not intended for investment advice. Neither MediaTek nor any of independent providers is responsible for any actions taken in reliance on contents provided in today's call. Now I would like to turn the call to our CFO, Mr. David Ku, for the fourth quarter financial results.

David Ku

Executives
#3

Thank you, Jessie. Good afternoon, everyone. Now let's start with the 2025 fourth quarter financial results. The currency used here is NT dollar. The foreign exchange rate applied to the quarter was TWD 31.1 to USD 1 compared with our fourth quarter guidance of TWD 30.6 and the third quarter foreign exchange rate of TWD 30. With that, revenue for the quarter was TWD 150.2 billion, up 5.7% sequentially and up 8.8% year-over-year. Full year 2025 revenue totaled TWD 596 billion, up 12.3% from the previous year. Gross margin for the quarter was 46.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter and down 2.4 percentage points from the year ago quarter. Gross margin for 2025 was 47.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-over-year. Operating expense for the quarter were TWD 47.4 billion compared with TWD 43.9 billion in the previous quarter and TWD 45.6 billion in the year ago quarter. Full year 2025 operating expense was TWD 179.6 billion compared with TWD 161 billion in 2024. Operating income for the quarter was TWD 21.9 billion, down 1.5% sequentially and up 2% year-over-year. Non-TIFRS operating income for the quarter was TWD 22.5 billion. Full year 2025 operating income was and TWD 103.5 billion, up 1% year-over-year. Non-TIFRS operating income for the year was TWD 106 billion. Operating margin for the quarter was 14.5%, down 1.1 percentage points in the previous quarter and down 1 percentage point year-over-year. Non-TIFRS operating margin for the quarter was 15%. Operating margin for 2025 was 17.4%, down 1.9 percentage points year-over-year. Non-TIFRS operating margin for the year was 17.8%. Net income for the quarter was TWD 23.1 billion, down 9.3% sequentially and down 3.6% year-over-year. Non-TIFRS net income for the quarter was TWD 23.6 billion. Full year 2025 net income was TWD 106.1 billion, down 1% year-over-year. Non-TIFRS net income for the year was TWD 108.2 billion. Net profit margin for the quarter was 15.4%, down 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter and down 1.9 percentage points year-over-year. Non-TIFRS net profit margin for the quarter was 15.7%. Net profit margin for 2025 was 17.8%, down 2.4 percentage points year-over-year. Non-TIFRS net profit margin for the year was 18.2%. EPS for the quarter was TWD 14.39, down from TWD 15.84 in the previous quarter and down from TWD 14.95 in the previous quarter. Non-TIFRS EPS for the quarter was TWD 14.71. Full year 2025 EPS was TWD 66.16 compared with TWD 66.92 in 2024. Non-TIFRS EPS for this year was TWD 67.46. A reconciliation table for our TIFRS and non-TIFRS financial measurement is attached in our press release for your reference, and that concludes my comments. Thank you.

Jessie Wang

Executives
#4

Thank you, David. And now I would like to turn the call to CEO, Dr. Rick Tsai, for our prepared remarks.

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#5

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to report that our fourth quarter revenue reached TWD 150.2 billion, which came in at the high end of our guidance range, thanks to a more favorable foreign exchange rate and better demand for smart edge products. For full year 2025, MediaTek revenue was TWD 596 billion, up 12.3% year-over-year or USD 19.1 billion, up 15.6% year-over-year, registering another year of record revenue. I believe this milestone underscores MediaTek's resilience in navigating a dynamic global economic environment. The strong support and confidence from our customers and partners and the strength of our leading technology and IP road map that has laid the foundation for our growth. MediaTek's 2025 revenue growth was mainly driven by global share gains of our flagship and premium edge AI Dimensity chips as well as our industry-leading connectivity solutions, including WiFi 7, 5G modem and 10G PON. We stand firmly as a market share leader across many categories, such as smartphone, tablets, Chromebook, TV and broadband connectivity. Meanwhile, we continued to make very solid progress in technology development and business expansion into new growth areas. For example, we were one of few companies completing 2-nanometer tape-out at TSMC. We worked with partners to enable the world's first Release 19 5G advanced NR-NTN connection over OneWeb LEO satellite. We successfully expanded our project pipeline for data center ASIC and automotive platforms. We also started to register revenue for high-performance computing products such as GB10 that we co-developed with NVIDIA for its DGX Spark AI supercomputers. Looking ahead to 2026, as ubiquitous AI continues to push the boundary of more efficient computation and AI applications, we believe MediaTek will continue to thrive on those growth opportunities. In data center, demand has been increasing rapidly. We are very confident in achieving data center ASIC revenue of more than USD 1 billion in 2026 and multiple billion U.S. dollars in 2027. Furthermore, we are fully committed to executing a follow-on project in our pipeline with revenue starting in 2028. For MediaTek, to strengthen our position as a trusted partner for data center customers, we are accelerating investments on several key fronts. Firstly, we have consolidated internal R&D resources and increased external hires for data center, AI system architecture, critical IP development and advanced technologies. With these efforts, we have demonstrated strong capabilities in architecting high-performance heterogeneous compute systems on advanced process nodes as well as implementing advanced packaging technologies that deliver meaningful TPA improvements and enhance power density for custom data center solutions. In addition, to support our long-term growth and capture emerging market opportunities, we continue to invest in several key technologies, including high-speed 400G SerDes, co-packaged optics solutions, 3.5D packaging, custom HBM and integrated voltage regulators, IVR. We believe these strategic investments will further enhance our technology road map to support customers' evolving requirements. In automotive, our scalable Dimensity auto cockpit platforms, telematics solutions and power IC continue to gain share globally. In addition, we are making an inroad into ADAS by partnering with DENSO, one of world's leading automotive technology providers to co-develop custom ADAS chips. The solution will combine DENSO's automotive-grade safety expertise and deep vehicle integration with MediaTek's power efficient high-performance SoCs and AI capabilities to offer a scalable platform for next-generation driver assistance. We expect significant revenue growth from our automotive solutions in 2026. Our computing solutions, which includes tablet, Chromebook and the GB10 project for DGX Spark that we collaborate with NVIDIA grew more than 80% in 2025 to USD 1 billion. Driven by strong AI adoption and share gains, we have observed very positive feedback for NVIDIA DGX Spark, and we expect its revenue growth to accelerate into 2026. With AI serving as a catalyst for industry expansion and driving the surge in demand, the global supply chain is facing challenges in fully meeting the increasing needs in 2026, resulting in higher costs across the supply chain. We have secured the capacity required to support MediaTek's growth in data center ASICs and other areas. We will also adjust our pricing to reflect the rising supply chain cost and allocate our supply across products based on the overall profitability. We believe 2026 will continue to be a year where MediaTek's business growth is supported by the AI megatrend. Building on this solid foundation, we will continue to invest in critical technologies, including 5G satellite, 6G, advanced process nodes and advanced packaging for both edge AI and cloud AI solutions to capture growth opportunities ahead. With that, now let me talk about the recent business performance for our 3 revenue groups. Our fourth quarter mobile phone revenue grew 18% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year in NT dollars, achieving record high quarterly revenue and accounting for 59% of total revenue. This was driven by the successful ramps of our flagship SoC, Dimensity 9500 as well as our premium SoC, Dimensity 8500. For the year 2025, MediaTek's mobile phone business grew 8% year-over-year in U.S. dollar, Surpassing USD 10 billion in revenue and achieving a record high. Within this, flagship SoC exhibited robust growth and contributed USD 3 million in revenue. These results strongly demonstrate the widespread recognition and market position that MediaTek Dimensity platform has successfully established. For 2026, under the pressure of increasing memory and BOM cost, we expect overall smartphone end demand to be negatively impacted. We will work closely with our customers to strategically adjust the product portfolio in order to mitigate the impact. For the first quarter of 2026, we expect mobile phone revenue to decline significantly quarter-over-quarter. Moving on to Smart Edge platforms. In the fourth quarter, this group declined 8% quarter-over-quarter and grew 13% year-over-year in NT dollars, accounting for 37% of total revenue. The sequential decline was due to consumer electronics seasonality, whereas the year-over-year growth was mainly driven by share gains in high-end tablets powered by our Dimensity 8000 and 9000 series. In 2025, Smart Edge platforms grew 21% year-over-year in U.S. dollars, benefiting from market's continuous adoption of AI and faster connectivity as well as our global share gains. For example, our connectivity revenue grew strongly and exceeded USD 3 billion in 2025, with WiFi 7 revenue tripling and 5G modem doubling. We anticipate these positive trends to extend into 2026. Even without factoring in the expected data center ASIC revenue, our Smart Edge platforms revenue is still expected to grow healthily this year, demonstrating the structural strength across our business portfolio. In 2026, in addition to the exciting growth opportunities from data center, auto and computing that I mentioned earlier, we also expect higher adoption of AI and faster connectivity to continue across applications. We are once again at the forefront of technology upgrades with our industry-leading WiFi 8 solutions unveiled at CES this year, and we expect early customer adoptions towards the end of the year. For the first quarter of 2026, we expect our smart edge products to grow sequentially and year-over-year as several products such as connectivity, TV and computing devices recover from the low seasonality. Moving on to Power IC. This group accounted for 5% of total revenue in the fourth quarter and was down 8% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-over-year. The sequential decline is due to consumer electronics seasonality, while automotive and industrial grew in the quarter. In the first quarter of 2026, we expect our IC revenue to be flattish. Moving to the guidance. In the first quarter of 2026, we expect the recovery of smart edge platforms will partially offset the sequential decline of mobile phones. We further expect our first quarter revenue to be in the range of TWD 141.2 billion to TWD 150.2 billion, flat to decline 6% sequentially and down 2% to 8% year-over-year at a forecasted exchange rate of TWD 31.2 to USD 1. Gross margin is forecasted at 46%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. Quarterly operating expense ratio to be at 31%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. In closing, we believe 2026 will be a year where MediaTek's business growth is supported by the AI megatrend. Meanwhile, we aim to protect our profitability through disciplined pricing and the strategic capacity allocation. We will also remain fully focused on execution and collaborate closely with our global supply chain partners. With the vast opportunities brought by ubiquitous AI ahead, we firmly believe we are on the right track of our mid- to long-term growth journey. This concludes my prepared remarks. Thank you.

Jessie Wang

Executives
#6

Thank you, Rick. Operator, we are now ready for the Q&A session. May we please have the first question?

Operator

Operator
#7

[Operator Instructions] The first one to ask question, Sunny Lin from UBS.

Sunny Lin

Analysts
#8

So to kick off, first question on cloud ASIC. In recent few months, cloud ASIC demand appear to continue to strengthen. So with that, should we expect upside for your total addressable market estimate of USD 50 billion by 2028 and your market share target of 10% to 15%?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#9

I believe we shared about USD 50 billion last time and 10% to 15% market share. We do not have a really formal estimate -- reestimate of this market size, but I certainly believe it's safe to go up by $20 billion, for instance, about $50 billion to $70 billion. I think that's without really a detailed analysis, but that's my estimate. Thank you.

Sunny Lin

Analysts
#10

Right. Well -- sorry, just to clarify, given people really pay attention to your guidance. And so let's say, if addressable market is up to TWD 70 billion in 2028, and you still aim for a 10% to 15% type of market share or you think could be higher given the progress made in recent few months?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#11

I think 2028 is a bit further. We have ideas, but I think let me say, 10% to 15% is rather safe estimate. We certainly strive to go higher.

Sunny Lin

Analysts
#12

Got it. And then my second question is to follow up on the business model for a cloud ASIC. And so maybe one is, David, if you could help us understand, going to 2027, when you scale the ASIC shipment, how should we think about the incremental OpEx increase. And given now we are into the ramp, could you also give us an update on gross margin, also OP margin profile for the project?

David Ku

Executives
#13

I'll probably start with the OpEx. I think OpEx ratio, which is scaled into the revenue so far for the full year, also for next year, I think we are looking for the flattish, okay, the ratio should be similar. But given the fact that revenue will grow, so the OpEx dollar will continue to increase, we will basically invest more, like I think, our CEO explained, we're going to invest more for all key technologies. Profitability-wise, I think that's the same approach. I think overall due to the mix of different business model and also accounting principle, the better way to think about that, especially for 2027, when we start to ramp is you're going to see operating margin accretive. I think that's probably the best way to think about that.

Sunny Lin

Analysts
#14

Got it. Sorry, maybe one last follow-up. Since you mentioned you have already secured the next-generation core ASIC project, how should we think about your value add, your content and then also competition evolving into the next generation.

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#15

Well, the next-generation products certainly is quite a bit more complex in just about every aspect. And we have demonstrated our capability to elevate our technology and IP capabilities convincingly to our customers. And also on top of that, our execution capability, which we are already demonstrating right now in our first chip situation. So I really believe together with our -- what we've been discussing before, our hybrid model with flexibility with a tremendous service to our customers. I think all these add up to a tremendous value add to our customers for their buildup of their very massive compute power development. Thank you.

Operator

Operator
#16

Now next one to ask question, Laura Chen, Citi.

Chia Yi Chen

Analysts
#17

My question is also about the ASIC. We're already working on the next-generation project. Can you share with us, is there any change in terms of business model. Like we now mainly doing service and also the turnkey service for our clients. Since Rick, you just mentioned that the design is getting more complex. Will the business model change involve more IPs that MediaTek will be able to provide. And also as we are targeting like a 10%, 15% of the market share. So can we kind of assume that this business will be able to achieve like 20% or higher of our total revenues in next year?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#18

All right. The business model, I think we remain, as I said, our hybrid business model. The value add, of course, will vary from generation to generation. But I'd like to also say, given the high degree of complexity, which is added to the next-generation chip we are providing, I think, actually more value if you look at the total, while our customers is also adding more value in their aspect. So that's why we have been always said this is a win-win model. We get more value, they get more value. And together, they will certainly gain more market share in their end of the business. So I'm very pleased with that development. As to the -- what was question?

Chia Yi Chen

Analysts
#19

20% or higher revenue contribution.

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#20

I -- of course, I think you're asking for really advanced or indication, I guess, for 2027 revenue. I think it's possible, certainly. I think 20% is something we believe we have reasonable chance to get to, and we'll do our very best to achieve that.

Chia Yi Chen

Analysts
#21

Yes, sure. Maybe just a quick follow-up. I recall that we are also working with NVIDIA on NVLink Fusion. So are we also seeing that any like progress on the potential engagement with our ASIC business?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#22

The model -- the NVLink Fusion model is being developed. This is -- again, this model by itself is a complex model from a technical point of view and from a business development point of view. I would say we continue to have a very strong and close relationship with NVIDIA. And we both are building the model, the build model and the targeted potential customers, and I cannot really disclose too much more, but it's ongoing.

Chia Yi Chen

Analysts
#23

Yes. Okay. Sure. No problem. My next question is about the gross margin outlook. I recall last time, David, you mentioned that the gross margin for flagship smartphone SoC seems to be lower than corporate average. So I'm just wondering that actually, we see that the component price hike has more impact on the entry level or low-end segmentation. And the portion of our flagship -- on the good side is that probably the revenue will be able to kind of support it to compensate the weakness in the low-end space. But how would the impact on the gross margin side? And how should we think about the gross margin trends in this year?

David Ku

Executives
#24

I think for full year 2026, our goal is actually to aim to sustain our gross margin at around 46% level, which was similar to the guidance we gave starting from last quarter. When you look at our gross margin in fourth quarter last year and also the guidance this year, I think you can consider that will be our goal to maintain at full year. And how do we achieve that? I think like what we explained during the opening remarks, given the overall supply chain tightness right now, I think we've been going through a very rigid about the capacity allocation among the business growth rate and also the profitability. And that's point number one. Point number two, given the overall -- the cost increase in pressure, we are also in discussion with our customers for certain products, I guess, we have to pass on some of the cost increase. So combined of that, I think will be reasonable, but the goal will be maintain the gross margin around 46% for the full year.

Operator

Operator
#25

Next one to your question, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

Gokul Hariharan

Analysts
#26

First off, on the data center ASIC project, could you talk a little bit about your understanding of what you're facing from a competitive landscape perspective because this has been largely the domain of one vendor until very recently for this project. And also, Rick, could you kind of help us understand a little bit on the technology preparation that you've done on high-speed SerDes, including 400 gig plus, 3.5D and CPO. Could you give us a little bit more details on how we can look at MediaTek's capabilities because that seems to be quite critical for the next generation, the follow-on project that you mentioned?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#27

Yes, Gokul, I guess your first part of the question is if you're asking whether -- how we view other suppliers, our policy is not to comment on competitors' situation. But on the other hand, for our own investment, the multiple technologies and IP areas, I mentioned -- I discussed during the remarks. I think we have staffed through internal resource consolidation. We have many very capable engineers. While we hire high-caliber technologies, including architects, including the power experts, including optics experts. Yes, those are very difficult technologies. We certainly know that because we are doing them. But we also -- by the way, we are also collaborating with some third-party, major third-party players. So while they remain challenged, very challenging for us, but if you look at the past 2-plus years, I think our track record has shown that we have been able to not only catch up but also to provide level playing field capabilities for our next generation, and we will continue to compete for future and broader range of business opportunities.

Gokul Hariharan

Analysts
#28

And just to follow up. So this current project that is going into production pretty soon this year, do you think that the deployment model is going to be different compared to previously that you were working on some different workloads compared to what your competitor is working on? I'm just asking because so far, if you look at data center AI, most of the demand has been largely at the very high end of the spectrum, whether it is for NVIDIA GPUs or AI ASICs. So I just wanted to understand, is there like a very big division of workload that is happening at the customer, which gives you this opportunity to kind of break in and kind of for the customer also to segment the demand more clearly?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#29

Well, basically, Gokul, this question, of course, needs to be answered by our customers. While -- yes -- but you -- I'm sure you understand the pace of the ASIC chips of such complexity, you have to go back certain amount of years to start when we started the design and then you look at the progress or the status of the AI or generative AI at that time. And then during -- through that design process until the production is, again, we're measuring in -- I wouldn't say -- I cannot say exactly how many years, but you know well. Things change. But we believe the design of our customers' ASIC chips, they have taken into consideration of their own internal workloads needs plus their external requirement workloads. And how they -- but I cannot say how they balance those workloads. But we have -- as far as I understand, they really are -- they are very high on this chip.

Gokul Hariharan

Analysts
#30

Just one last question on flagship smartphone. Given we are expecting a tough market for smartphones, are we still expecting the flagship segment to grow this year? Or we think we might have to give up some opportunities to protect profitability?

David Ku

Executives
#31

Gokul, I think from a market share perspective, flagship market share perspective, given our new product coming out every year and also all new products are very competitive. I think we still feel comfortable the market share will continue to gain. And likewise, actually, because right now, it's more silicon content in there, we're also seeing generation after generation, the blended ASP generation after generation is higher. But the last variable, if you like, really the overall shipment, I have to say, given the overall -- the memory situation. Right now, it's still evolving or developing. Based on what we see, probably that will become somewhat year-over-year having some pressure on the flagship overall, the market shipment, not the market share. But at least we can somehow balance that with our continued gain on market share and also continued accretion on our ASP.

Operator

Operator
#32

Next question as Haas Liu from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Haas Liu

Analysts
#33

Congrats on the solid results and guidance. So I wanted to follow up on the smartphone business. Would you provide more detail about the smartphone linearity for this year factoring your guidance for a significant decline in first quarter? And from the full year perspective, it is going to see negative impacts from the other component supply shortage. Just wondering if you have any quantitative outlook for the overall market versus your own shipments. And then your overall situation across the mid, high, low-end smartphones as you are reallocating or optimizing your product mix, could you also just share your view on the market share gain or loss as the previous questions?

David Ku

Executives
#34

Okay. Some of your questions involve a detailed resolution. Probably I won't be able to comment, but let me probably start with our full year view for smartphone. Very straightforward, I think given the overall memory situation, and we believe actually the overall smartphone this year year-over-year, maybe we're seeing a decline. I think that's on the top line. In terms of the detailed resolution for flagship, mainstream, entry level, even including 4G, we probably won't be able to provide the detail. But the key point is when you look at our overall business portfolio, our non-smartphone business, like we explained during the opening remarks, will offset a big part of that and will grow nicely. And plus our data center new revenue coming in, which right now we guide is more than $1 billion. I think overall, we're still looking for the top line year-over-year growth. I think that's probably just our feedback. But for the detailed segmentation resolution, we -- in general, we don't comment on that.

Haas Liu

Analysts
#35

Okay. Okay. Yes, that's clear. And then I think just on ASIC beyond hyperscalers accelerators, should we expect your ASIC business to grow beyond this part of the market, for example, like servers, CPUs and also networking chipsets? And beyond cloud AI computing, could you also discuss more in detail about your potential in automotive ADAS partnership with DENSO because that is going to be a huge chunk of opportunity with higher level of ADAS being adopted across the vehicles. And then I think as part of my second question is that you also mentioned about you are going to put more effort in 5G satellite. Could you discuss more in detail on what kind of chipsets you are working on with your customers? Or is it going to be part of your effort in low earth orbit?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#36

Okay. About data center, AI, of course, now and our first priority and focus remain at the -- what we're going to ship this year, next year and also the next project following. But in the meantime, we are diligently -- we're working on the market -- the AI market is just changing very, very fast every month, every quarter for sure. So we are rapidly adapting that dynamic. We also -- that's why we are investing in technology that is not just for one customer. We are developing technology, which are generic, more generic also for other applications, while like inferencing is getting a lot more important as the GenAI development has gone. So the answer is we are, but I do not like -- I don't think we can share a lot more than that. On other new business satellite, you have -- you asked automotive and satellite. Automotive, certainly, we are very excited to work with DENSO. I mean we all know is one of the top automotive Tier 1 player, very, very deep technology capability and very, very strong business relations with multiple major car OEMs. And so the combination of between the 2 companies is just perfect. They provide a deep vehicle integration, understanding all the safety requirements. We provide a low-power SoC, very high performance plus a very high AI capability that the ADAS will need for the next at least 4, 5 years. So we're excited, and I believe they are too. We look forward to major revenues for both. Satellite, we actually we have we both work on the NTN. From modem point of view, we also actually have WiFi solution for some of their station on earth for the satellite business. So this is one area that we feel very good. We cannot say we believe the fast growing, but we don't -- we cannot say how fast so far. But from whatever we are seeing, our connectivity solutions from both modem and WiFi point of view, we have very strong position already, and we expect to grow on that basis.

Haas Liu

Analysts
#37

Okay. Yes. That's very clear. Just one small follow-up, and I will be back in the queue is that for that NTN projects or the satellite chipsets that you have, is it going to be more on the edge side or more going to be on the infrastructure or base station side? And then I think a couple of years ago, you provided a few -- the CAGR for the next few years on the sales and also margins. I'm not sure if you are able to provide such guidance at this stage for 2026 and also 2027?

David Ku

Executives
#38

I think for the NTN it's more on the edge side, not on the satellite side, I think just to be clear. In terms of the guidance, we probably won't be able to provide guidance so far because there will still be a few years to come. It's growing, but still be a few years to come.

Operator

Operator
#39

Next one to ask question and Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

Charlie Chan

Analysts
#40

Congratulations for a very strong outlook, especially on the ASIC side. So I do have 2 part of questions. One is also same on ASIC. And second question will be on smartphone. For the ASIC, I wanted to ask management whether you see strength over the past months, meaning there's upside to your forecast, especially next year. And if that's the case, you just mentioned you already assured the key components, but are you sure that your TClass HBM can really support that so-called upside order. And lastly, gross margin trend. I'm wondering for those kind of upside revenue, do you think the gross margin -- incremental gross margin would decline? And lastly, given the revenue size is so big, do you think the customer want to change to the COT model in the current generation or next generation? So that's my questions about the ASIC business.

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#41

We are -- as we said in our remarks, we are very confident for our fourth quarter revenue of more than $1 billion. We said for 2027, multiple billion dollars. That's the range certainly. I would say we believe if and where I believe we will, when we deliver, when we execute, we expect to see some upside. Then the supply -- from a supply point of view, and I also said earlier that we have secured supplies for data center ASIC and other areas. We have a good scale to work with the major suppliers. And we also have certain flexibility among our own different product portfolio. So we also have high confidence that we can manage -- we can provide the supplies for the demand coming next year. We are -- we have been preparing for that for some time. Lastly, again, that question is not really up to us. But what I -- again, as I said earlier, I really believe -- I think all depends on overall objectives. The overall objectives, I believe our customers or actually, for that matter, all the CSPs is really to provide timely and high-quality low-power computing capability at a very good TCO to grow their business. And the market is changing so fast, the technology pace is so fast. In the -- if you look at the history of our industry, usually, it would take partners to work together to achieve that required growth target for everyone. And unless you are in a very mature industry, you probably can go just by yourself. But we are not in that phase at all. There is a huge amount of growth ahead of us. So I fully believe the value add we provide and we are also -- as I said earlier, we are also working hard with our customers to enhance their value add. It's not a zero-sum game, period, and we believe this will continue.

Charlie Chan

Analysts
#42

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. So just a small follow-up on the ASIC side before I move to smartphone. So you mentioned about your -- you feel like your 10%, 15% market share is pretty safe to achieve, right? And my understanding is that your customers' ASICs probably account for half or even more of the kind of total ASIC TAM, right? So is that the right way to think about your allocation from the key customers would be like 20% to 30% or even higher -- based on those data points that I just described?

David Ku

Executives
#43

Charlie, I think, again, the earlier question talking about the target market shares or the market share goal is 2028. This is still a few years away. So there are so many moving targets. I think our focus right now is we ask them well about the 2 projects on hand and market share will become hopefully a happy consequence, okay? So that's why actually we don't want to give out the detail. Actually, we will not be able to give out the detailed guidance for the market share for 2028.

Charlie Chan

Analysts
#44

Got you. So my second question on smartphone will be relatively brief. I wanted to get management's thoughts about the agentic AI in China smartphone markets. What do you think about the top -- so the kind of feedback and our MediaTek customers want to do similar kind of application? When do you think that will become a killer app?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#45

I think we've been dealing with this question for at least 2 years, if not longer. And I will not give you kind of a boiler plate answer. It's not obvious this "killer app", but I don't think -- I'm not sure that's the right thinking. I think the agentic AI will just blend into your life with the smartphone, and that smartphone can be a very smart smartphone and it may be just a mid-end because you can -- depending on what you need, you can access very sophisticated GenAI models on your phone. But for even more bigger applications, you need to go to the cloud. So if we provide a solution that will have more than sufficient compute power, but that compute power will be limited by the form factor of the phone itself. That's physics. So the phone will provide ample AI or GenAI or agentic AI capability by itself. But and I believe the demand of the application will increase so much and that phone certainly will play the other role of being just connecting to the cloud very effectively and efficiently. And that will fill both ends. It's -- I think it's part of life. It's a -- and this -- and there may be other form of devices that will enhance people's life using agentic AI. And we certainly -- if there is opportunity or outlook, we are pursuing them also.

Operator

Operator
#46

Ladies and gentlemen, with the interest of time, we are going to take the last one to ask questions, Arthur Lai from Macquarie.

Yu Jang Lai

Analysts
#47

So my first question is still on the cloud AI. Just want to follow up the Charlie's question. When you comment the scale and also flexibility, can you help investors understand, are you trying to allocate the scarcity resources to incubate your new cloud business? And what's the resources you referred to? Is the wafer location or is the substrate or your experienced engineer? That's my first question.

David Ku

Executives
#48

So David here. I think long story short, we will allocate among all what do you say, internal R&D resource like during the opening remarks, I think Rick is talking about, we've been investing sizable R&D on and plus we've been hiring aggressively external resource. So internal resource, I think we will definitely allocate to this fast-growing area, especially with a huge addressable market. For the overall manufacturing capacity, I think we will put a priority on that as well. So all of that, yes.

Yu Jang Lai

Analysts
#49

And the second question is more on the cycle and also history. This is actually not the first time we engage envision softness of the smartphone. Compared to the last 2 cycles, can management or Rick comment on what the MediaTek's strategy right now compared to the previous second down cycle?

Lih Shyng L. Tsai

Executives
#50

Okay. Certainly, 2026 is a tough year for smartphone. I mean we -- I'm sure you guys have read about that. No need to further elaborate. But I also believe this is a cyclical year. The demand will remain solid next year or maybe in 1.5 years. I cannot say for sure. But I am quite sure that the demand will come back. And when it come back -- when it comes back, it will come back in force. And we need to be prepared for that, and we will be. MediaTek during the past few years, we have, I think, developed and equipped ourselves to I think to live through the cycle is too weak actually to actually -- I believe we will be stronger after the cycle. The capability we have built the market position, I feel very confident this -- the mobile business -- well, at -- it's now in the sixth year of the 5G generation. Well, certainly, the growth -- overall growth is saturating. We all know that. But MediaTek's position, the capability is much, much stronger compared to our last generation of modem technology. So we feel -- I don't like this down cycle, but that's life, we will be better after that. Thank you.

Operator

Operator
#51

Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, we thank you for all your questions. I'll hand it over now to Mr. Jessie Wang for closing comments. Ms. Wang, please go ahead.

Jessie Wang

Executives
#52

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes MediaTek 2025 fourth quarter conference call, and an audio replay will be available in 1 hour after the call at the Investors section of MediaTek's website. We would like to thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

Operator

Operator
#53

Yes. Once again, we thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may disconnect now. Goodbye.

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