MJ Gleeson plc (GLE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Well, good morning, everybody, beautiful morning and well done. I feared you'd be late bringing you so far west. So nice to see you. Thank you for coming. Welcome to Gleeson's results presentation for the year ended June 2023. Here's the agenda for the morning. I will give you a brief overview. Stefan will then take you through the numbers, and I'll come back and give you a bit more detail on our operations, our strategy and our outlook. And of course, we'll be pleased to take any of your questions after that. And there's also a few of the home team are here, in particular, Mark Knight and Guy Gusterson. So I might call on them for a bit of help with the questions. And certainly they'll be around for a coffee afterwards if you'd like to have a chat with them. So without further ado, very nice picture there of our new products. That's the rural range, and that's on-site, live and in the flesh in the Northeast. It's really important to our immediate strategy going forward, and I will be talking about that new range in a little bit of detail. So I would describe the performance as a robust performance in quite an interesting year. We started the year as a fast-growing homebuilder, but primarily principally focused on first-time buyers and one that didn't sell -- didn't allow our homes to be sold for rent. So you can see that we were particularly vulnerable to the twin challenges of a spike in the mortgage rate and also the end of Help to Buy. But we saw that coming, and we reacted quickly, and we've changed a lot. And hats off to Mark and the team for their resilience and the flare in our response. Over the year, we've achieved a moderate sales rate. It's been stronger and weaker at times, as you know, but we were very pleased to supplement that with our first multiunit sales. We took advantage of that quieter market to restructure the business, as we've talked to you about that before. And that was in part about rightsizing the business for the market that we're facing into. But for me, it was much more important that we were restructuring the business, to put us in great shape to take advantage of the growth opportunity that we see over the coming years. We put a lot of focus on build quality and the customer journey. I think that in the rush to get to 2,000 units and the sheer intensity in the build market through those -- through 2021 and the early months of 2022, we probably lost a little bit of ground in that area, not disastrously, but we focused hard on that, and I'm delighted that in the first -- in the beginning of the current financial year, our customer scores are running at a very strong 5 star in Gleeson Homes, which is, again, tribute to the team. And also, we were early signatories to the New Homes Quality code, and that's also working very well for us. So amidst the fog in the market and the doldrums, we do -- we are confident in our outlook, and we do still see that clear route to 3,000 homes per annum in the medium term. In Gleeson Land, we were delighted to welcome Guy during the year as the new Managing Director. He very quickly appraised that business and set his strategy for expansion going forward and is on with implementing that. Demand for the prime consented sites that Gleeson Land brings forward remains strong, despite what you may read. We are seeing some caution, particularly among the major house builders. And what that's doing is not discouraging them from buying, but it probably is slightly extending the time scales, as you might imagine. And that's really -- between that and the planning system, that's what's caused the lower number of sites in the year, but we were still pleased we did sell 3 sites. And we come into the year with 6 sites with consent; in other words, really coming forward towards being marketed. And we have already sold 1 significant site since the year-end. And amidst all the hurly-burly, we were very pleased to extend -- to refinance and indeed extend our bank facility in what I would characterize as a skeptical banking market, but we received great support from that from our lenders, and thank you very much, and I think a couple of you are here this morning. Thanks very much for your support. Stefan and the team did a great job, and that was again about strengthening the balance sheet and really for the -- to prepare us for the growth that we see ahead. And I just did want to, at that point, to say thank you to the wider Gleeson team. They've shown real resilience, creativity and commitment in what's been a challenging year, both in the market and, of course, faced with that restructure. And these results are down to them. So well done, and thanks to the entire team. So potentially, the slide that's going to get most of your focus whatever else I say this morning, and that's how is current trading. It's difficult to disentangle the effects of the normal summer distractions from a more fundamental underlying market weakness. And at the beginning of September, mid-September, that's probably what you're hearing from most of us. But undoubtedly, there is -- the market is weaker than it was this time last year. We're probably -- our gross reservations are probably down 15% to 20% on last year. Cancellation rates reasonably stable. And what that translates to is an underlying net res rate that's 20% down on the same period last year. But as you can see, we're at 0.43 for the -- sales per site per week -- for the first couple of months of the year. And that's -- whilst that's a dull sales rate, it's certainly not suicidal, we can very definitely work with that. And I do see a pickup -- a recovery in the market. We can talk about that potentially in the autumn selling season, perhaps more likely in the spring. But much more interesting to me is what we can do at Gleeson to influence that sales rate for ourselves. There are improvements we can make, and we have multiple initiatives underway. And I'll talk to you about those this morning, but we're looking at the improved product offering, refreshed marketing proposition, introducing a shared ownership offer, which we don't currently have, and I'm convinced we'll see a step-up in our sales rate. And we are also exploring or pursuing a considerable interest that we're seeing in further multiunit sales. So I think the basis of my confidence is really about what we can do for ourselves rather than waiting for the market to come and -- to improve and help us. And at that point, I'll pause and hand you over to Stefan to take you through the numbers.

Thank you, Graham, and good morning, everyone. So as Graham said, despite the market challenges, the group delivered a robust result for the year with group operating profit of GBP 33.6 million and profit before tax of GBP 31.5 million. Now we ended the year with net cash of just over GBP 5 million. That was down on previous year-end's cash balance. And I will talk about that, but that was as a result of the very positive actions we took during the year. And in line with the group's stated dividend policy, we are proposing a final dividend of 9p per share, bringing to 14p the total dividend for the year, with that total dividend being covered 3.1x. Now Gleeson Homes delivered GBP 35 million of operating profit, Gleeson Land GBP 1 million. I will take you through the divisional results in a little more detail on the next few slides. But just to highlight a few points in the income statement. Group overheads were GBP 3 million lower than prior year. That was as a result of reduced bonuses during the year, the unwind of share-based payment charge, the accounting charge for long-term incentives and lower professional fees. Interest costs increased by just over GBP 2 million -- sorry, to just over GBP 2 million as we started to draw on the bank facility during the year, we had a small amount of drawings. Now looking at Gleeson Homes. The division delivered 1,723 home sales in the year. Was down 14% on the prior year as a result of the severe slowdown that we saw from September, which impacted second half volumes in particular. We achieved a strong average selling price increase, 11.3%, with underlying prices up 7.6% and the difference being a slightly richer mix of sites and a richer mix of beds, bed types. As a consequence, turnover was down just 4% at just under GBP 321 million. Now gross profit margin at 27% was lower than last year, reflecting underlying selling price increases being more than offset by build cost inflation, the impact of multiunit deals, higher incentives, although only -- not significantly higher at that point and higher fixed costs on site durations as we anticipated extended completion dates on our sites. We completed the restructuring of parts of Gleeson Homes operations during the second half of the year. And we saw that we reduced head count, which had actually increased quite significantly in the first quarter of the year. And as a result of the restructuring, we are taking GBP 3.2 million worth of overhead costs out of the business as at the run rate in the second quarter of the year. And the cost of achieving that was GBP 1 million, and that's treated as an exceptional cost in our income statement. The GBP 3.2 million of annualized cost savings, part of that was realized in the second half. It's all being fully realized from the first of July. Nevertheless, cost -- overhead costs did increase by GBP 5.7 million during the year. It's due to higher average overheads during the -- average head count during the year, increased advertising and sales costs and, of course, pay inflation from the beginning of the year. Now Graham will talk more about the operational benefits of the restructuring a little bit later on and how that puts us in a position where we're better able to execute our growth plans. But I should remind you that we take a very conservative approach to accounting for our sales and marketing costs, which were running at just over 4% of turnover. We recognize them as they are incurred. We do not put them on the balance sheet and then trickle them through the income statement as homes are sold, which many of the house builders do, which is perfectly fine way of doing it. We take quite a conservative approach. So all of our overhead costs hit our income statement as we incur them. So I'm pleased with Gleeson Homes' results. It's a robust result for the year, GBP 35 million of operating profit. 10.9% operating margin, which delivered a return on capital employed of just over 16%. Now let's just have a look at the forward order book. We started the year with a lower forward order book as a result of the very deliberate actions that we had taken in the previous year, which you're all now familiar with. We then started the second half with quite a heavily depleted forward order book of just over 300 plots. That did impact second half volumes. But we've been rebuilding that. Despite the rather anemic reservation rate in the second half, we've rebuilt that, in particular, boosting it by an additional 262 forward orders remaining from the 4 multiunit deals that we signed in the second half of the year. Now turning to our build and sales sites, you will remember that we took action in the second quarter of the year. We paused land buying, land purchasing, and we paused the opening of new build sites. That meant the number of sites that we were building on at the end of the year reduced to 82 build sites from 87 in the end of the previous year. We did continue opening sales sites. So we grew our sales sites from 61 selling sites at the end of the previous year to 71 at the end of this year. We have now recommenced land buying. We have recommenced opening build sites. But the pause in opening build sites during the year is going to have a knock-on effect this year. We have -- we will simply have fewer sites that we can open for sales during the year. So I would expect that our sales sites will reduce this year, and we expect to have between 60 and 65 sales sites at the end of this year. Whilst we did pause land purchasing, it didn't stop us bidding for sites. And we continue to add to the pipeline. The market has become a little bit tougher, with some landowners pausing and are waiting for a reduction in the volatility in the housing market and the land market. Nevertheless, we continue to build the pipeline. We now have a pipeline of over 10 years' supply based on 2023 volumes. Land costs did increase, but I stress that the cost per plot of the land that we buy still remained remarkably low, well below 10% of our average selling price. And it is this low cost of land that -- this gives Gleeson Homes much lower operational gearing as we continue on our growth strategy. Land is the first thing you pay for when you open a site. If you're paying less than 10% operationally, you're at much lower gauge, you need less cash. That puts us in a strong position. It means that Gleeson Homes will continue to be able to grow at its double-digit growth rate and still be operationally cash generative. Now turning to Gleeson Land. 3 site sales were completed in the year. All of those sales were under promotion agreements, 1 sale in the first half of the year, 2 in the second half of the year. That low number of sales was as a result of the caution amongst householders and the continued delays in the planning system, which is still rather congested. Overheads were slightly lower, and as a result of Gleeson Land recorded an operating profit of GBP 1 million. Now turning to the balance sheet. Inventories, you will have spotted, increased quite significantly by GBP 58 million. Gleeson Land has contributed less than GBP 4 million of that increase, as site promotion costs were -- exceeded the value of WIP that was released to profit on those low number of site sales. It was Gleeson Homes' increase in inventories that drove that significant increase. So Gleeson Homes inventory is up GBP 54 million, that was GBP 58 (sic) [ 57 ] million increase in build WIP. That's a big number. We invested last year approximately GBP 30 million in preparing for the new build regulations, transitioning to new build regulations, in particular, Partel, which applied from the 15th of June this year. That was a tactical decision, and we're very pleased that we're now in a very strong position to transition to those new regulations and the benefits over the next 2 to 3 years from having done so. It was this significant investment, which is a one-off and will unwind over the next couple of years, that caused the reduction in cash from the GBP 34 million that we saw at the end of the previous year, to the GBP 5 million that we ended this year with. Group's operating cash flow was actually an outflow in the year, GBP 9.6 million, driven by this GBP 30 million investment. While Gleeson Land continue to be cash generative, you will know that, that actually a stable cash generator, strong cash generator. Gleeson Homes had an operating cash outflow of GBP 7 million caused by that additional GBP 30 million investment. And reiterate Gleeson is typically an operating cash generator even when growing, because of that low land purchase cost per plot. So finally, turning to dividends. Final dividend for the year will be 9p per share, bringing to 14p the total dividend for the year. That's covered 3.1x. That is within our dividend cover policy of between 3x and 5x. That policy we are reiterating and will maintain. Thank you very much, and I'll hand you back to Graham.

Thank you, Stefan. Conscious that we did talk to most of you just a couple of months ago at the Capital Markets Day. So there's a lot in here. I'll go through it at a reasonable pace and if there's anything you want to pick up, please pull me back on questions. But as I say, conscious that I don't want to repeat too much of what we said to you back at the beginning of the summer. Before I get into the market and the operations, I did just want to touch on the important sustainability aspects. And one of the things that's really impressed me since I joined the group is the structure and the focus that we bring right across the sustainability agenda, and Stefan takes a huge amount of credit for that. There's a lot we could talk about, but I've just pulled out 2 highlight -- 2 of my personal highlights on this slide. And one of those is the core purpose of the group. It goes right to the heart of Target 1 from UNSDG 11, safe and affordable housing for everyone. And just to stress, a couple on the government's national living wage, the minimum wage, can afford to buy a home on every Gleeson development. It's a proud claim and close to the heart of every member of the Gleeson team, and that will remain the case. And in newer news in, I think, the last 4 to 6 weeks, we have signed up and been accepted by the Science Based Targets Initiative, committing to set and publish our targets for carbon reduction within the next 24 months. I would expect and hope to do that well within that time scale, and we are well on with our preparation for that. So it's an important step for us. As I say, there's a lot more I could talk about. In fact, there's quite a bit more in the appendices. It's probably not the best use of your time this morning, but please do feel free to ask us about that in the questions, if you'd like to. So turning then to the market. For me, this is about customers still adjusting to the higher cost of housing. There's been a structural shift. We're aware of that. I don't think anybody in the room is expecting to see mortgage rates fixed, 5-year fixes at sub-2% anytime soon, if again in any of our working lives. I don't think we need that to happen. Customer -- the asset is structurally more expensive, and customers will adjust, but what they do need is some stability in the market, and that's what I'm actually looking forward to. We need some stabilization in rates, and we need it out of the -- out of the headlines on a daily basis. It disrupts the market, in my view, if -- whether the headline is interest rates are going up, or going down, or peaking, or staying the same, what we need is interest rates out of the headlines. First-time buyers undoubtedly inhibited by the loss of Help to Buy. You're hearing that from everyone right across the market. The interesting thing for me is that we have obviously seen, as the first-time buyer has stepped back, quite a significant diversity in the range of people buying Gleeson Homes and we will talk about that because that's a very important element of, again of my confidence as we go forward. I do think we'll see that the first-time buyer interest stabilizing and coming back up to a more normal level. But Gleeson Homes is not kind of critically dependent on that happening in any particular time scale. Interestingly, pricing remains firm. A couple of things to say about that. I'm obviously well aware that we're using incentives more than we have and that's -- but that's reasonably stable. They were probably about 2%, 2.5% through the year. They've pushed up a little bit, but nothing to really scare the horses. I would say we've still got some ammunition in our armory, if we need to use it. So yes, we're using some incentives, but we're not seeing any pressure, either from customers or from valuers, to make reductions in that headline pricing. I'm also aware, of course, that you've got quite a significant level of inflation in the wider economy, and it may be that, that is doing some of the heavy lifting for us in terms of we are seeing real price declines. But in this marketplace, real price declines are not nearly as scary as nominal price declines. So interesting piece to watch, I think. Mortgage availability remains good. What we're looking for, as I say, is some stability in mortgage rates, the cost of mortgages. Build cost inflation, very interesting with that's been, as I say, uneven, I would say, through the year. We're seeing different -- some materials are still, costs still pushing up, some coming down quite significantly. And undoubtedly, that reduction in the sheer intensity of build right across the market, has eased the labor market, and we're definitely beneficiaries of that. And if I had to give you an indication, I mean, we still -- we anticipate that during calendar 2023, we will see a reduced cost of build of 3% to 4% is our current estimate. The planning system remains dull, disappointing. I would say probably not much better nor worse than we've seen for the past couple of years. For those of you that know me know that I'm not a planning whinger, we have to plan for difficult planning. And we are very good at that at Gleeson, both in Gleeson Homes and in Gleeson Land. On the political backdrop, as unexciting as ever, we have received the initial conclusions of the politically motivated, dare I say, CMA review. They raised some interesting questions, and they dare to suggest that it might be the planning system that's at the heart of the problem. Sadly, they didn't quite manage to draw the same conclusion as the previous, I think, 4 inquiries. And so despite 6 months of intensive review and consultation, the best we've got to is another 6 months of review and consultation. And the guy said to me, finish on a high ground, finish on a high side. I got it. Last week there I was, all set with light at the end of the tunnel, relief on nutrient neutrality and I've just pipped at the post. So there we go. That was all blown out of the water yesterday. I mean, more seriously, it does tell you that the vital cause of getting homes built in this country is likely to remain subjugated to basically political agendas for many months to come. But it was -- there was 1 enlightening aspect in that whole process, which I felt personally informed and uplifted by, which was that the fundamental shortfall in supply in homes in the U.K. has actually been nothing to do with our planning system nor indeed to this government. It's all the fault of Europe. So hurrah for Brexit, that's all I can say. Turning then to Gleeson Homes. And we were pleased with the performance in line with the expectations that we set out in February, so pretty much in the middle of that range of 1,723 completions. The open market sales rate, as you'd expect, was subdued, but it was okay, and it was -- we were pleased to supplement that with the 4 multiunit sales that we concluded in the fourth quarter, and that represented 115 of those completions. Importantly, we do anticipate bringing our shared ownership offering to site, hopefully within the next 4, 6 weeks. And that, I firmly believe we'll see a modest step-up in our sales rate. It's something that's definitely missing from our offer right now and has been through this -- through the last months. Web traffic is up. Leads are obviously down. They're lower than we were seeing this time last year. But there are still leads there. There are still customers there and it's absolutely about making sure that we are capturing and pursuing those leads. And I'll talk a little bit about that in a few minutes. Very interesting and important feature for us is this change in the demographic of Gleeson buyers. And so we've seen in the last 6 months that first-time buyers have reduced to just 50%, down -- massively down from the previous typical proportion of 80% and above. And that shift -- within that shift, you're now seeing over 20% of sales to customers over 55. That's more than double the previous proportion. And cash buyers also nearly double at 10%. So a much wider demographic of buyers. And that's driven by the relative affordability of a Gleeson Home, by the quality of that refreshed product and by the beginnings of our refreshed marketing effort, and we will talk about that. It's a really important part of the look forward for us. The restructuring, very pleased that we completed this successfully in April. I took you through that at the Capital Markets Day, so I won't go through that in great detail. But as you know, we've reduced from 9 regional management teams down to 6, now operating under a standardized operating structure. And that really does, in my view, get the business prepared to be confident as we expand over the coming years. As I say, we talked about this in July, and so I won't take you through all of that detail. But important just to stress that through all of this change, that core purpose and proposition of Gleeson remains unchanged. And that is based on the relative affordability of our product. Again, this was a slide that Stefan showed you on the Capital Markets Day. But as I say vital, and I will repeat it, a couple on the national living wage can afford to buy a material proportion of the homes on every Gleeson site. That proportion will obviously vary. It's -- if you take the higher-value suburban areas of Manchester and Leeds and Liverpool, it may be as low as 10%, but it's still significant. In the rolling fields of Lincolnshire or Cumbria, it will be much higher than 50%. But very importantly, and in particular with that new refreshed product range, customers taking advantage of Gleeson's affordability are not compromising on quality, and that's really important to our proposition. So let's just take a look at what I'm talking about with the product. Elevating the offering, that's Stefan channeling his inner Oscar Wilde on a Thursday morning. So we're very pleased with the completion of our refreshed ranges. Those of you that did join us on the Capital Markets Day happily saw the product in the flesh, as it were, at Petersmiths Park. It does look and feel great. And that new range is all about improving the appearance, improving the quality and the flexibility of those ranges. So the ranges work for us in both -- they're adaptable. They work for us in both rural and suburban locations. We've also adjusted some of our conventions and presumptions around, for instance, external space, which enables us to build at higher densities. Not everywhere and not all of the time, but it's important, for instance, that we're able to build at greater density in suburban Liverpool and Manchester. Gleeson heartlands, whereby if we don't build at that higher density, we will be priced out of our own core marketplace. So that's -- and the new ranges absolutely allow us to do that. Our strong technical team means that these ranges are also well equipped for the raft of technical change that's coming at us. So we're well prepared for space standards and for future homes as that comes forward. Importantly, we're not -- in improving the range, there's been no impairment to the margin. In fact, these elevations are slightly, whilst they're smarter, in my opinion at least, they're also simpler to build than the previous iteration and therefore are actually cheaper to build than the previous versions. So no compromise on margin, but significant improvement in quality. And all of that, what that all speaks to then is the fact that we now have a product, a really attractive product of high quality that appeals to a much wider customer demographic. And so with that heavy lifting done over the last 18 months, 2 years, what we now need to do is make sure we're proactively targeting that wider demographic who can benefit from a Gleeson Home. So I could be unkind and say that the shift in that demographic, the increased diversity in our purchases that we've seen over FY '23 and indeed are seeing now, has actually been almost in spite of our marketing rather than because of it. Those customers have found us rather than us going and finding them. And therefore, I'm absolutely delighted with the response of Mark's marketing team. They've done a great job, in record time, actually, to refresh our marketing proposition and to make sure that we are addressing that wider audience. So we're on the cusp of launching this, and I can, I'm pleased to say, just share some of the thinking with you this morning. So as you can see, these are all just -- there's sketches, they're mockups, there's work still to be done. But these are before and after shots and you can see what we're doing is just toning down some of that brighter, shoutier colors into a slightly more neutral palette. We're changing -- broadening the cast of characters in our imagery and perhaps a slightly more mature, if you like, presentation. And also, we're making sure that our signage is not -- is neither overtly nor subliminally deliberately targeting or avoiding any particular cohort of potential buyers. So just making sure that we're taking that product out to the widest possible audience. So I'm very excited for the benefit we'll gain from that, as I say, as we properly market to the full range of potential buyers. We're also looking hard at our sales processes. Again, being unkind I could say that our sales teams, anybody's sales teams have really not actually had to sell a house for something like 6 to 8 years, put your own date on it. But -- and so absolutely appropriate that what we're looking at is making sure our sales teams are right on top of their game. So we have just -- we've designed a comprehensive refresh of our training, and we're underway with rolling that out around every region. Everybody is getting that invitation, I can't remember what date, but I'm summoned to Sheffield and I will be getting that training as well. And I'm excited by that because there is, as I say, it will make a material difference as our sales teams are refreshed in their approach. We're also looking at our processes and compliance to those processes. And I'm thinking here about lead management. It's all too easy when life is easy, it's easy to get into a habit of not maybe following up every lead, and really vital that we're right on top of that. And the work that we're doing will ensure that as we go forward. So a lot of self-help in just improving our own selling process. We're much more disciplined than we were about opening our show homes. So we've got a full suite across all our sales sites. That wasn't the case before. And it's really vital in this market. You can't sell goods without a tidy shop window. Importantly, we've removed the restriction on buy-to-let. That was a great claim when we had a surfeit of buyers, but actually on balance now, the restriction that, that presents to a potential buyer, in my view, outweighs the benefit of making that claim. And so we've dispensed with that. And again, that will just open us up for a slightly broader range of buyers. And I've already talked about the shared ownership offering, which we expect to bring to sites within the next month or 2. And all of these initiatives are about how we help ourselves, improvements we can make regardless of what the market does. Again, a slide that I showed you at the Capital Markets Day is the opportunity that we see in partnerships. Actually, given the current zeitgeist, they always put all the other slides in the bin and just showed you this one when I see what that does for share prices. But -- it's -- I do believe that this will be -- this will have a significant part to play for us as we go forward. And so we are very much exploring those opportunities. And just to update you, we have appointed our partnership's Director, Helen Randerson. She's, I would say, inundated actually with interest in -- from potential partners to work with us and see how we can work with them to expand -- take advantage of this additional route to market, and that will help to expand our revenue as we go forward. Just to remind you, we are very selective about the partners we'll work with. It's really important to us that they share our values and the quality of the communities we want to create. It's also not about a significant investment, either capital or overhead. This will -- this is building on what we currently do, and working with partners and broadening that population of partners incrementally. And also importantly, we don't see this as cannibalizing our core open market sales. This will be additive. But I do see that it has a part to play, potentially a significant part to play in the expansion that we believe lies ahead. Turning then to Gleeson Land. As I said, we had a modest year in terms of sales, but we were happy with -- to deliver 3 sales, covering over 400 homes. And that really -- that number was held back by in planning delays and also, as I say, some delay in concluding deals and from the major housebuilders. But the lack of supply for the high-quality consented sites that Guy and the team are delivering, really does underpin strong demand whenever we take a site out to market. We have a strong pipeline of sites, and as Stefan has already alluded to. We are seeing promotional opportunities are fairly scarce at the moment. But our excellent team is doing really well in winning more than their fair share, and we did pick up 1 or 2 excellent opportunities over the last few months. I just thought I would -- on the right is the -- is a plan of a site recent site that we've transacted. And I thought I would just give you a brief story of that site to give you some insight into what it is Gleeson Land actually does. So this is a site for 200 units in core commuter heartland in Billericay in Essex. Now this site it was -- had an allocation for development, but it sits in the green belt. And when the presumption sort of came forward, a presumption against development in the green belt, the local authority withdrew the allocation because it was a green belt site. A team at Gleeson Land took a good hard look at this and said, okay, we think you've got a shortfall of supply in that area, and we think the characteristics of this site absolutely support development. So they backed themselves to get over a really high hurdle to pull a site out of the green belt. They took it to appeal and won their case in front of the inspector, which is absolutely outstanding achievement. And it's far from the only site where they've done this. So immediately, within 5 minutes, we took that to market and we had 8 excellent bids. We went with a large regional player. Interestingly, it was slightly delayed for exactly the reason that I said. So in the really buoyant market of 18 months ago, the site would have completed within 5 minutes of us choosing our preferred candidate. It took a month or 2, and hence, this didn't get delivered in FY '23. The site has completed in July, and we're delighted with that. On the Capital Markets Day. Guy set out his exciting strategy for the businesses. And as you know, that's all about increasing our market share in our core heartland of the Southeast and Southwest, those really high-value areas with very constrained supply. We also want to deepen our coverage north of London, in the Northern Home Counties and the Midlands. And to do this, we will deploy those excellent market-leading data research and analysis capabilities, which Guy briefly showed you back in July. And importantly, those are important for us, not just in identifying opportunities but also increasingly, when we're into competitive bids, our ability enables us to demonstrate our command of the opportunity and has already differentiated our bid and won us sites. As we said, the pipeline is absolutely ripe. We do have 6 sites we're planning as we go into the -- as we come into the current year. We won 6 permissions in FY23. Interestingly, 5 of those were won as appeal in much the way as I described, with Billericay. Some further stats on the portfolio, and some further stats on the portfolio, and we currently have some 70 sites covering almost 18,000 units. So then to the summary and outlook. Very pleased, as I say, to successfully and efficiently implement an important restructure. We're carefully managing our site investment. As Stefan said, really important, we don't want to suffer from that dip in work in progress and in product to bring to market. So we're well aware that the doldrums could continue for some time. So we're cautious, but we are actively bidding for buying, and very much opening sites so that we're ready for the recovery when it comes. We do expect to see an improvement in the wider market demand and for the Gleeson Homes, potentially in the autumn, that would be great. And perhaps more likely in the spring. But actually, I'm much more focused right now on what we can do to help ourselves. There are clear improvements that we can make that will increase that sales rate, regardless of what the market does, and that is around the refreshed product offering, our refreshed and broadened marketing approach. We will continue with appropriate incentives and important that we're agile in how we deploy those. The launch of the shared equity offering, as I've said, and pursuing that interest in further multiunit deals. I do anticipate that they will continue to play a part through the current year. Gleeson Land pipeline is strong. And as I say, demand for prime sites is absolutely resilient, despite what you might read in the papers. So we do see significant potential to scale up both of the businesses. We're excited about that. We can see a clear route to 3,000 homes per annum in Gleeson Homes in the medium term. And as you heard me say, in July, significantly more beyond that. So at that point, thank you for listening. We'd be happy to take your questions. I'm going to sit down because I've got a piece of paper and I can write down when Sam hits me with. How many is it going to be, Sam?

I'm Sam Cullen from Peel Hunt. I've got, I think it's 3, but first couple of basically is related. Could we talk about both deals initially? And when you -- first a clarification, when you say you are kind of relaxing the restrictions on buy-to-let. Is that across the board? Or is that just for what you might call institutional owners? Or is it you laying mom and pop landlords kind of come onto site and pick up homes? That's kind of question one. And then where institutional owners are buying assets. Can you give us a bit more color on how concentrated the assets they're buying across? Are they taking most of 2 or 3 sites, are they taking 2 homes on over 20 sites, et cetera? And is there any correlation in the types of homes they're taking kind of 2, 3, 4 beds, et cetera, under the demographics, that they're looking to rent to? Would that match your sort of renewed demographics in more over 55s? Then on what sort of financial terms they're looking for -- the yield they're trying to buy on. So that's question one. That's the first kind of couple of questions. And then just the second one really is on -- can you just remind us on the payback of that 30 million investment in working capital, i.e. how many plots is that over, that [indiscernible] in the kind of investment ahead of [indiscernible], how many plots is that? And what, well, let's say have you over the next 2, 3, 4 years going to be build.

So I'll deal with question one, and I'll go for a lie down and let Stefan do question two. Yes. Look, good question. So yes, the buy-to-let restriction is removed across the portfolio. That makes absolute sense in any event. We couldn't sort of say to our customers, you can't sell for rent, but we can. Actually, already, I would say, the response has been pretty muted. We haven't -- there's been no sort of army of purchases protesting about this because I think it's the norm in the market. People are used to buy to rent. So -- and we're not seeing a stampede of mom and pop -- what you described them as mom and pop landlords. We're not seeing that either. But I just think it's a sensible adjustment. Why would we prevent a buyer from letting their properties? So yes, that's gone from all our sales. Yes, interesting, the different institutions have different requirements. Importantly, as I say, we're select -- the partners that we're selling to very much share our values. So we are not looking to change the quality and the character and the environment of a Gleeson site. And that's really important to us, and we are doing due diligence on that. The partners that we're working with at the moment are taking a mix of product. And different partners have requirements in different areas. So we've worked with -- some of these are housing associations, so they're obviously local to their particular area. We have one in particular that's focused on the Northwest, I think Cambria one in the Northeast. The institutional buyers are Carlyle, really across the piece, and they have taken a mix of 2, 3 and 4 beds, but they're primarily focusing on family homes. So it's a good mix. But -- and the -- as I say, the demographic that they're looking to rent to is very much aligned with our own aspirations. And those formal terms, I mean, we haven't actually -- we haven't disclosed the discount, but it's kind of what you'd expect. It is not -- if I was to say to you how we disclosed this, have a look, 10% to 15%. And that is pretty -- it's pretty tight actually in that market. Nothing that's going to scare the horses.

Let me answer the question about the payback. So the answer to how many additional plot starts does that represent, about 2,000. So that's the -- all of the infrastructure that's required to go in because you don't just start to plot in the middle of a muddy field without some infrastructure in place. So that includes all of that. I would say that will be fully paid back within about 2.5 years, with the majority over -- with the vast majority over 2 years.

Charlie.

Just a couple of questions from me. First of all, just comments around -- sorry, around Land for the Homes business. Obviously, we've had a few companies reporting recently. And I would say, from the larger house builders, the message is very much that kind of land hasn't really adjusted and there's none of it around at the right price. And there's a sort of -- there seems to be a standoff in that kind of market, but you're saying that land is readily available at good prices in your -- for your Homes business. So I just wonder if you could just help us understand that. Is that a sort of difference in vendors, are planners more favorable to you in those areas? Or just explore that a bit more. And then second, on the shared equity, just as points of clarification. I'm guessing this is a third-party agreement. So it's not tying up any of your capital, but would love to just get a clarification on that as well.

Yes, absolutely. So let me take those in reverse order because the second answer is a quick one. So shared equity, no absolutely. It's a third-party provider or a couple of third-party providers that we're talking to that you would have heard of them. And no absolutely no commitment of our capital which is important. Yes, the land market, I mean, well, we could talk about it all morning. But it is interesting given that nobody is apparently buying land, but it ain't any easier to buy land than it ever was. We are seeing fierce competition when we go out to get a hold of sites. But look, it remains the case that Gleeson Homes land team is very good. We have trained cohort of apprentices over the last couple of years. That was something that Mark and James introduced, which is paying dividends for us. And please don't write that because I don't mean anybody coming and nicking our cohort of buyers. But we are good at this. So we're not only out there on tender lists, but these guys are out there finding sites, and talking to the right people. But so we do -- we'll get the odd 1:1 opportunity, which obviously helps. But you shouldn't have the impression that it's any easier to get hold of land. We have to have sharp pencils and make sure that we're right on our game in the bid that we'll make. Does that -- carry on.

Push you a little bit further. So does that mean then that as and when you decide that the recovery is sort of underway, you could move up the sites quite quickly. You'd be quite confident of doing that?

So we're in a good place. As I said, we have -- whilst we're absolutely cautious and watching the purse strings carefully because we -- we're well aware that doldrums could continue for much longer. But equally, my own view is, I don't think that they will. And equally, we want to be in a good place. So we had that very sensible pause, post the many budgets, as everybody did. And we're very keen, as we looked hard at our budgeting for next year. We're very keen that we don't leave ourselves with a prolonged dip. So Stefan has described, we've got some constraint on the units we can physically produce in the current year, and we're really keen to make that dip as short as possible. So we've set a really tough program, actually what Mark has set, that's a tough program for the team this year. We're looking to open something like 20 sites. Over the course of this year. There's a lot of focus on making sure that we're bringing the land through, getting the planning, and indeed lining up the bids. Harry?

Harry Goad from Berenberg. I've got 2, please. So I guess my first one is probably continues on from point you're just answering to Charlie. So if we think about that 3,000 unit number you've talked about. And I know, I understand we're not going to put a date on that. But how fast or how quickly can, in a normal market environment, can you grow the business, if that makes sense? That's point number one. Question 2 was just going back on that point on the WIP investment and the unwind of that. Can you give us any sort of guide about how we should think about the net cash position at the end of this year?

So I'm glad you looked at Stefan for that one. I will chip that bone neatly out to the inside right channel, but just let's pick up on the 3,000. You kindly said, in a normal market. We've guided medium term and most people translate medium term to kind of 5 years, and I'd be reasonably confident around that. But you do need to bear with me on the start date because if we stay at a selling rate of 0.43 for the next 18 months, then it's not going to be 5 years from today. But we are confident about that target in, as you say, a more normal market. Stefan?

So what I would say is the consensus is a low single-digit million cash balance at the end of this year, and the end of next year. That, to me, seems like a sensible set of projections, and I -- without telling you what I think our cash balance is going to be. I'm not unhappy with where the consensus is. Put it that way.

Still expecting volume growth in Gleeson Homes this year, completion growth. I just wondered, when you look at the kind of site numbers, sales rates, bulk sales, how do you get to that? Kind of what are you assuming to get to growth with Gleeson Home completions. And then just coming back on the kind of investor sales and first time buyers. I mean what level of investor sales would you be happy with on the size or as a percentage? Do you think the first time buyer continues to squeeze down from that 50%, if we assume roughly mortgage market stabilizes here at higher levels than what they've been in the past?

Yes. Good question. So volume growth for the current year, I mean you wouldn't expect me to put a number on that. I think we've got a consensus around about 1,800, 1,850 units. And that, to me, seems sensible. I would expect, as we said, the bulk sales the multiunit sales will form part of that. And probably, to a degree, I mean, what was it, it was 115 of last year's units. We'll still have some of the work through because the forward order book contains about 250 of those sales. And I would anticipate maybe we'll do another 200, just depends. They've got to be the right deals for us. I do stress that. We're very cautious about who we sell to. And a little bit of that goes to your second question around are we -- what proportion of investor sales do we see on the sites? And what does that do to the first time buyer. So look, our core open market proposition stays the same. And we are -- what we are is an open market housebuilder, and we fully anticipate that the majority of our sites will be to those value-driven buyers who are looking for a quality product and a nice place to live. I don't see significant numbers. And that's something else that we look at when we're discussing with, for instance, with Carlyle. So now, if you look further forward to kind of potential 'partnerships' transactions, and I'm well aware of the difference between a bulk sale and a partnership deal. Then you would -- you might look at areas of a site that are sold -- forward sold, for instance, to a buy-to-let investor. And you understand that very well. So you would see a different concentration. But again, that would then be planned in concept and appropriately designed. And again, we'd be very careful about the partner we worked with. So right now, I don't see significant proportions of buy-to-let or concentrations on particular sites. Going forward, that would depend on the types of deal that we put together. Does that answer the point?

Just maybe one follow-up. Do you see any pushback from local authorities with that change? Or is it too early to give anything?

No, we don't. And in fact -- I mean, one of those multiunit person was a local authority for their own purposes. So we've had -- no we've got nothing at all, actually.

It's Adrian Kearsey from Panmure at the back. I've got a mic. So I'm going to use it.

Absolutely. Give us a song.

I wanted to delve a bit more into the change in the age of the demographic. And your sort of more age neutral marketing, especially given the audience. I think perhaps, sort of you're preaching to potential buyers. To what extent have you rolled out that new marketing sort of approach? Has it been early enough so that has influenced on particular sites, the age demographic? And was that something that we still have to see? So that moved from 10% to 20% for the over 55s. And a similar kind of move from presumably from the mid-30s to 40s is something that perhaps mills still may sort of extend further.

Great question. So I would -- as I say, unkindly, I don't think we've addressed this structurally or strategically. If Mandy Parkinson, our excellent Marketing Director were here, she would now kick me at that point because she's been working very hard. She's not silly and has been in a targeted way trying to broaden that marketing. But we sat down with Mark, early in the summertime, we need to do this structurally, not have you just sort of responding on the hoof. And at that point, she set about her initiative, a much more fundamental refresh. And that's what I've shown you this morning, and that is not yet rolled out. So the kind of enthusiasm you'll hear from me is that, that will be hitting the streets very soon. I think the agency have done a great job for us. So it's been done in record time, and I'm really excited for what that can deliver. But so short answer, no, that hasn't even hit the streets yet, and there's a lot of potential in it. Good question. Thank you. I'm going to go to Mark because we've been waiting very patiently since the start, Mark. Nice to see you.

Just a couple of questions. As you mentioned about your Homes business, and obviously acquiring land in that. I mean where are your thoughts now further on from the Capital Markets Day, with regards to institution strategic land into your Homes business rather than your other one? And secondly, what is the flavor of the day concerning partnerships. Can you just give us a feel for 3,000 target range to medium-term target range. How many units will that be from partnerships? And obviously, are you accelerated, are you tempted to accelerate growth into that with acquisitions, et cetera?

Right. So taking the first point on strat land. We don't run a separate strat land team as such. But we do typically buy conditionally on planning. That is our model. So in some sense, it's almost like a short-term strat land approach, if that makes sense, Mark. So we have strategic land that you would define as strategic in the portfolio because we'll buy conditionally, we'll buy unallocated land, or maybe land with an allocation, but we'll buy it conditionally on planning. So we kind of merge that approach within the team, if that answers the question. Looking at partnerships, listen, I'm not going to say this morning. Well, I expect that of 3,000 units, 500 of those will be in partnership. You do raise a good question because during the period over which we see the increase to 3,000 homes, that gives us both time to work with and build up our portfolio of potential partners. Very significantly, you're going to see political change one way or another. We're going to see political change over the next couple of years. In my view, whoever wins the election, we will see, I think, some sort of a political shift towards facilitating more affordable homes. And indeed, Angela Rayner was very explicit on that earlier this week. And to me, that very much puts partnership operators kind of on the right side of history. So I see the way I think that's the way that things will go. And it could be that partnerships offers a bigger opportunity than even I can see today. So it'd be foolish of me to say, give you a number of the 3,000, or even give you a time scale, but it's absolutely important that we're exploring that because it's something that would work very well with our model.

It's [ James Tetley from Maxie Development ]. A couple of questions and statements this morning and a clarification from the room as well. I think I read in the Home section this morning that you're thinking about one beds or potentially trailing one beds. Is that right?

So we talked about the -- I think the phrase I use was adaptability. And so we don't expect to be selling those in vast numbers. But there is undoubtedly a market for that market. I don't know if you want to add to that, but...

[indiscernible] relevant to the demand there. We have got a one bed product. It's aimed mainly towards the register providers, section [ 1 of 6 ] products that come through planning, but we have a bit of open market option on it. And then on the other extreme, I think we mentioned last time around in earlier this year, that we've got a wider 4-bed offering, including 2-1/2 story and 3 and a 5-bed, Gleeson Affordable Home. All relevant to the needs of the market.

Is that part of the motivation there might have been institutional demand for 1-beds? Is that something...

Well, typically, and obviously, we're a Northern house builder in Midlands, in Leeds, where we've got the site just commencing at the moment. On the outskirts of Leeds which has heavier regeneration. There's 1-beds on there for upper market sale because the absolute need for that is there, and it's high demand. On the East Coast and West Coast, we won't be plotting any because they just won't be. So it's very relevant to the site specifics.

Flexibility and adaptability.

And then on land, there's a comment in the statement around how you're one of the only 2 large, one of the 2 large, sort of unconflicted strategic land businesses, if you like. And you're not sort of supplying your own housing business. I just wondered if you're seeing, given the consolidation in that market, are you seeing a benefit now from being one of the 2 sort of unconflicted players.

I'll ask Guy the same question, but I would say very difficult to pin down. And that must be anecdotal. But yes, it is, when you're pitching up for a -- to promote to a potential vendor, to me, that makes a real difference, Guy, do you want to add to that?

Yes. Now I'll totally agree with that. What we're seeing in the marketplace when we're speaking with agents who were acting on behalf of land owners is that they are very mindful of house builders and options because of how transactions have gone previously to that. If we just draw out one them, which is probably [indiscernible], although they are probably able to articulate that there wasn't a conflict, and what we're seeing in the marketplace is the nervousness around that, and whether that's actually a true statement or not. So from our point of view, we make a big point of emphasizing that we are a pure land promoter, and we're not conflicted, and that resonates.

Great. And then final comment just on the [indiscernible]. Graham, you said, right on build cost inflation. I think you said calendar year FY '23, 3% reduction in build costs?

On the cost of actual build yes. So...

And is that just sort of -- that feels. Obviously some sort of inflation coming down, but you're also talking about kind of a negative inflation effects [indiscernible].

Yes, exactly right. Don't forget that in there as well, you're going to have your prelims going up because we're building at a slower rate. So don't immediately go and say I can add 3% to margin. But the actual cost of building a house. And that's driven by a lot of factors in there. But if you think of where gas prices were at the end of last year, that feed into our product costs. If you think of the cost of freight that feed into our product costs. Timber was very high, it's since come down. Now others are still pushing up, and the brick manufacturers doing their level best to take production out and keep prices high. But there is a reduced overall demand. And so as I say, that's what we expect to see in the actual cost of materials and labor going into build a house. Greg.

Just a few for me. On partnerships, how close are you to signing an actual sort of partnership agreement purchasing ad hoc sales? Or do you think it will be ad hoc in the near term? Do you think you would consider any dedicated partnership sites in the future? And lastly, on the 3,000 home target. I know you're not giving any splits. But obviously, the core business was doing 2,000 home sales per year before. Do you think that could support 3,000 homes without partnerships over the medium term?

Good questions. Let me remind myself what they were. Listen, I don't have any agreements on my desk and I don't see that for several months. Hence, these things take time to pull together. However, I've got some 1 or 2 fairly significant potential partners who are just saying, we're ready for you to bring us the opportunity, and those conversations are starting. So I don't want you to think I'm going to be announcing something next week. But we are being very proactive in exploring that, and we're receiving good interest. Good question on do we see dedicated sites going forward Absolutely, yes. I mean, for me, that's when it works at its best rather than adapting a site that you bought for one particular purpose. The best partnership sites work from concept upwards. And so that's the sort of transaction we'll be looking at. That immediately tells you that, that's a bit further out. But already, it's a regular conversation now when Mark's land guys pitch up with a site, particularly larger sites in certain locations, we'll say, well, okay, that looks great. But have you thought about modeling that as a potential partnership site? So very definitely, we will see some dedicated sites. And so now, I don't know which piece of paper I wrote on. So but then to your next point around the 3,000 homes. I believe that in a normal market, absolutely, and we can see our way to selling 3,000 open market units. So it's not contingent upon oh blimey, I need to sign up XYZ a number of partnership sites. So we'll see what that blend is when we get there, and we'll keep you updated in the meantime. But absolutely, if the market came back to normal, we will still work on those partnerships opportunities because, as I say, I firmly believe they will be additive to our top line. But the 3,000 number is based on open market sales. Are there any more questions? John?

A couple for me, please, Graham. First one is in your aspirations for the 3,000. And just can we assess where the current level of completions is, how that compares regionally. So which of your regions are underweight or overweight the completions per region currently? So just where the growth is coming from, is the question. And then secondly, on build costs. The 10% growth you had last year, you're saying 3.4% this financial year. So does that include savings that you're making from the redesign efficiencies that you've made?

Okay. So let's just deal with the build cost point first. So the 3% to 4% is in the input cost of build to build a unit. So that -- so as I say, don't think that I'm saying our build costs including prelims and what have you, everything is going down by 3% to 4%. That's not what we are saying. So -- but overall, the -- did you ask about a specific figure for the current year that we're quoting? I think the only one we've given is that -- so we've given the 3. Yes. Yes. So Sorry, in? Yes. So the 3% to 4%, as I say, is what we're seeing is the cost of the materials and labor that build a house, we see that as a decline of 3% to 4% over the current calendar year. Why the costs, as I say, prelims will be pushing up because of the extension of the duration of build and so on. Just reminding myself of the -- okay, yes, I'll maybe get Mark to add on in terms of overweight and underweight. There are different factors in play, but I could say, for instance, we are currently underweight in Manchester and Merseyside, and that goes to that issue of building a density and being able to buy sufficient sites. So that's definitely a region, at least in the Heartland whereby with the improved range of units and the building up a slightly greater density, we'll be able to see that region coming back up. At the other end of the scale, we've got East Yorkshire, whereby the balance between the strong demand we're seeing and the availability of sites and the sheer skill of that team in bringing selects forward, and they're flying. But Mark, do you want to put any more color on that?

Well, I think you've answered it, Graham, but yes, East Yorkshire got plenty of pipeline and the machine continues to deliver absolute need in Manchester, Merseyside. And not least of all, but they're probably the most Gleeson type people in Merseyside and the surrounding urban areas that we should be mopping up. And at the moment, we're not. So we've addressed that within the team. South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, they're on track for becoming volume regions in their own right. And the Northeast coming on strong as well. And Midlands is in a good spot. So to be fair, the real focus is Merseyside, Manchester, which will also mop up North Wales.

Some perspective on this. The Merseyside, Manchester region has a similar number of sites to the Cambria region. But population-wise, it's about 15x the size. That gives you a scale of opportunity that we have in Manchester Merseyside.

The growth we will deliver beyond the 3,000 will come from existing regions.

It sounds like it's going to be pretty evenly spread [indiscernible] , similar trends. In terms of your margins and capital invested, are you able -- well, if it's similar growth or it won't change much, but if you're pursuing growth in those suburban areas of those northern cities. I'm assuming that the land percentage in those regions or those locations is more significant than rural.

It very much depends on the site, John. And so as I say, we're pretty agile in what we can make work. Those sites tend to be quite often re-gen sites, some of them quite grubby, and they're quite -- they look like -- Stefan licks his lips and says, now that's what I call a Gleeson site But that -- you're not getting it for a pound. But the land is not hugely expensive. And that's about deploying our really impressive re-gen skills actually in taking on those difficult dark and dangerous sites. So it's not as simple as saying, well, we're flying in and buying really expensive land, and therefore, that's going to be significantly higher working capital. It really is a site-by-site story. But I do stress the importance in the work that the team have done in designing this more flexibility into our range. And as I say, relaxing some of those presumptions around side driveways, front gardens, back gardens, reality is you can't do that in suburban Manchester. And the market is looking for that in suburban Manchester. So we now have a product, we now have products, but we'll work in those locations, but they'll work at Gleeson affordability and Gleeson margins.

Those are still single-family homes, and they're not apartments.

So for clarity, we're not going town -- some of our presumptions, we've not relaxed. We're not going town center, and we're absolutely not going high rise. So these will be single-family homes. Are there other questions? Do we have any questions from the back?

If you can get the conference call now, that would be great.

[Operator Instructions]

Those of you in the room don't need to use your phone. You can just put your hand up.

There are currently no questions on the phone

No questions from the webcast also. I'll go back to you, Graham, for closing remarks.

Very good. Thank you, Scott. That's excellent. Well, listen, once again, thanks very much for your time. We'll be here. We're going to be having a couple of coffee. So you're welcome to stay and have a chat with Stefan or myself or any of the team. But thanks to Stefan, Mark and Guy, for your support, and thanks to you all for coming. Nice to see you.