Nokia Oyj (NOK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 19, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
David Mulholland
executiveHello, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Nokia's Capital Markets Day 2025. It's great to see so many of you here in person, and welcome to those of you that are joining us on the webcast. I'm David Mulholland, Head of Investor Relations at Nokia. Before we get started, a quick disclaimer. During this event, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding our future business and financial performance, and these statements are predictions that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may, therefore, differ materially from the results we currently expect. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such risks in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 20-F, which is available on our Investor Relations website. Within today's presentation, references to growth rates will mostly be on a constant currency basis and profit or margins will relate to Nokia's comparable reporting. The presentation will be published on Nokia's Investor Relations website following the conclusion of the event. In terms of the agenda for today, you'll get to hear from many of Nokia's leadership team. Justin will start and outline Nokia's strategy and the next chapter in the company's evolution. Pallavi will explain the journey we're on towards AI-native networks. And Raghav, in his new role as Nokia's Chief Customer Officer, will discuss Nokia through the lens of our customers. We'll then move on to the business segment presentations with David Heard outlining the growth opportunity we see in Network Infrastructure. We'll then take a 30-minute break, so we can all recover and get some refreshments. And then Justin and Patrick will discuss our Mobile Infrastructure business and how we're transforming to lead in AI-native networks. We'll then finish the presentation with Marco bringing everything together from a financial perspective. We'll then conclude with a Q&A session, and we expect the event to last until approximately 12:30 or 1:00 p.m. New York Time. With that, let's get started. [Presentation]
Justin Hotard
executiveThe AI supercycle. It's something I touched on when I was announced in February, and it's something that I've talked about continuously since I started as CEO in April. And when I say supercycle, I'm not talking about something that's just a single boom. I'm talking about a technology revolution because the supercycle is a surge in innovation, multiple booms, and it's waves that build on each other. Now most of us in this room are probably old enough to remember the last one, the Internet supercycle. In fact, back in 1997, I was starting out my career as an engineer in the middle of a boom. I was building 2G mobile networks across the United States. We were just at the beginning of the Internet supercycle and the dot-com boom was just about to reach its peak. However, there was another boom underway, the one in telephony. This was the boom that I was a part of at the time. Because in 1997, while Netscape was making progress, the device capturing the world's attention and imagination was the mobile phone. And shortly thereafter, there was a device that everyone wanted to own. And you're probably familiar with it because it had a sound that was exactly like this. Nokia, then a relatively unheard of company from Finland, that began in paper and rubber, rose to become one of the world's most recognized brands and most valuable companies. It was a market leader for over a decade, not just because of technology, but because of what it promised. Its promise was simple. It was about connecting people. And it was more than a tagline. It was an idea that shaped the company and shaped the generation. It was an idea that transformed how we thought about communication. And as the world moved from 2G to 3G, we all became obsessed with it. We became obsessed with calling anyone anytime, anywhere, friends, families, colleagues. We became obsessed with sending SMS messages, so much so that we forced ourselves to learn how to type on a 12-key keypad. And many of us became obsessed and attached to playing a game called Snake. But the reality was that boom ended and the Internet supercycle, which was getting started in 1997, gave rise to multiple booms, including many that started after the dot-com boom because the Internet supercycle was more than just about connecting people. It was about connecting information. And that connection spread from the computers on our desks to the phones in our pockets. And as the world moved from 3G to 4G, new leaders emerged as the market shifted from the Internet to the mobile Internet, to SaaS and ultimately, to public cloud. And there's a lesson in that, that is very clear for us. Sustained success isn't about riding a single technology wave. It's actually about focusing innovation and investment and investing R&D, in particular, where future opportunities lie, where we create real impact and ultimately, real value. So when I talk about the AI supercycle, I'm not just talking about what's happening today, the ubiquitous deployment of large language models and deployment of AI agents. I'm talking about a multi-wave structural transformation that will raise new opportunities, reshape industries, transform economies and ultimately advance human progress. And as intelligence moves beyond the data center into the physical world, it will transform how devices interact, how industries operate and how people live and experience technology. And for companies like Nokia, it's a moment of disruption and a tremendous moment of opportunity because it's an opportunity when new leaders can emerge. In fact, when you think about it, let's talk about LLMs. Hundreds of millions of people are already using LLMs, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Claude, Llama, Perplexity and others. And they're not using it just to gain knowledge. They're using it to generate images, generate video, write code, explore scientific questions, automate workflows and increasingly leverage intelligent agents to assist in their daily lives. And that shift is already visible in the network. We're seeing far more intensity and actually far more variability in traffic patterns and entirely new demands on latency, reliability, security and throughput. In fact, our researchers at Bell Labs have done analysis that shows that as inference workloads expand and token exchanges multiply, consumer AI traffic across mobile and Fixed Networks is set to grow at over 20% annually through the next decade, with enterprise and industrial AI traffic accelerating at nearly 50% annually, driven by more distributed and more real-time applications. The reality is, if you think about every generation of technology boom, connectivity has become more critical, bandwidth is more essential and interruptions and trust -- interruptions cannot be accepted. This is only the beginning of the AI supercycle. And what this means for Nokia as a trusted Western provider of connectivity is clear. The AI supercycle is an opportunity for us to lead again. And to seize that opportunity, we also recognize that Nokia needs to evolve. And that's exactly what we're doing. And today, the company that used to be known for connecting people is now the company known for connecting intelligence. And connecting intelligence is critical because it flows directly from our North Star as a company, which is advancing connectivity to secure a brighter world. The first wave of the AI supercycle is already reshaping demand across our industry. AI adoption is scaling faster than any technology in history, and that impact is already showing up in the network. Because the network isn't just carrying bits of traffic, it's increasingly carrying tokens, the currency of intelligence. And these tokens represent everything from the prompts and responses flowing through LLMs to real -- real-time sensor data used by intelligent agents and applications. And this is only the beginning when you think about autonomous vehicles, robotics, delivery drones and more and more adoption of augmented and virtual reality applications. And we're already seeing the beginnings of this transformation because across the world, AI factories are being built at an unprecedented pace. Data center construction is accelerating. Optical Network -- optical transport requirements are increasing and IP networks are being re-architected to move AI workloads. AI infrastructure is also evolving rapidly as compute and memory fabrics become bottlenecks, creating demand for the kind of high-performance optics and switching that Nokia is known for. In fact, in optical and IP networking, we're already capturing this opportunity, and we're serving as the backbone of many of the world's AI factories, moving the data and the compute that power AI training and real-time inferencing. We enable hyperscale connectivity across continents and within the data center. And as inference workloads expand beyond centralized clusters, our networks are enabling data and compute to move closer to the users and the devices that rely on them. And it's as this phase accelerates that our opportunity in Network expands. Today, the NI market is forecasted to grow from EUR 48 billion in 2025 to EUR 60 billion in 2028. And we see meaningful upside beyond that as AI workloads become more distributed, data center traffic becomes more optical, more coherent and more performance-intensive. The reality is today, this is a portfolio and a business that sits at the heart of the AI supercycle. And we're already capturing the early waves of this demand. However, the opportunity doesn't stop here. As AI moves into the real world, into physical AI, into industrial AI, into autonomous systems, robotics, industrial automation, augmented reality, digital twins, access networks, both mobile and fixed, we'll need to evolve just as dramatically as optical and IP networks are today because ultimately to deliver intelligence everywhere, connectivity will need to be ubiquitous, trusted, performant and adaptable. And it won't be just enough to deliver it the way that we have traditionally, deterministic and static. Connectivity will need to be optimized in real time. It will need to be able to adapt. It will need to be able to support the demands of tokens with the right bandwidth, the right latency and the right security for that specific token. That's why the next major opportunity for Nokia lies in AI-native mobility. While the Mobile Infrastructure market is stable today, we see long-term growth coming, and it will follow the rise of AI-enabled devices and the demand for these intelligent applications at the edge. So I want to transition and talk a little bit about looking at this not from just a market view, but from the most important lens that we think about, our customers. And let me start with telecommunication providers. As we all know, telcos today have invested billions in spectrum, significant CapEx and access technologies and transport infrastructure and, in many cases, are looking to unlock more value from their networks. And they're already looking to us today to evolve their networks to improve performance and to identify new opportunities to bring new services, new sources of value to their customers. In fact, one great example of this is a customer of ours called AT&T. AT&T has a bold vision for fiber connectivity. They're aiming to double their subscriber base to 60 million homes by 2030. And our passive optical networking technology plays a critical role in enabling that expansion. We provide the next-generation fiber platforms that will upgrade and extend one of the largest fiber networks in the world. But it's not just in fixed access, it's also in mobile. Turning to Europe. In Estonia, Elisa selected Nokia radio technology for their entire 5G network. And that Radio Networks has independently been assessed as one of the highest performing networks in Europe. And ultimately, all of these high-performance access networks can't operate on islands. They require high-performance transport networks. And what we do in Network Infrastructure and Optical and IP Networking provides a backbone that allows this traffic to be carried reliably, performantly and at scale. And that's what sets us apart is that we bring together the entire network for telcos, radio, core and transport, helping them to solve our customers' most complex challenges and helping them to deliver more value, more capability and more services to their customers. The second major segment for us is AI and cloud providers. These are the companies building the physical infrastructure of the AI economy. And as we all know, they're investing at a pace the world has never seen. In fact, just to dimensionalize that, the largest hyperscalers are now investing more each quarter than the largest telcos invest in a year. And increasingly, they're coming to Nokia to power their AI factories, co-engineering and co-developing some of the most complex networks we've ever seen. In fact, today, 9 of the world's top 10 hyperscalers use our optical technology. They're investing and trusting our innovation from ICE-X 400-gig and 800-gig pluggables to IP routing systems that handle petabit scale capacity. And we don't just sell to them, we co-create. This was a key point and key value driver of our acquisition of Infinera because Infinera deepened our presence in this segment. It brought us depth and experience in co-engineering with this critical customer base. And just as importantly, it brought a culture of speed and agility that has strengthened our road map and our relevance with these customers. And when you look at the order and revenue growth, we're already seeing, not even a year into this acquisition, it's clear proof that we're making progress. And you'll hear more from David on that progress and the road map ahead. Our last major segment is mission-critical enterprise, and this includes defense. This is a segment where connectivity is a strategic asset and a critical differentiator. Now this isn't broad enterprise. This is a very specific group of enterprises, where persistent connectivity for them is critical because they depend on it for their operations and their operations simply cannot fail. These are -- examples of this are public utilities, rail, transportation, public safety organizations. They need performant, reliable, trusted networks. And of course, as I mentioned, it includes defense. As I've talked about, this is an emerging adjacency for us. We see it as an opportunity, though it's still quite nascent when you look at it in the context of our financial results. And so to capture that opportunity, we today announced that we will stand up a new business unit called Nokia Defense. While this business is still in incubation, it includes our acquisition of Phoenix and our existing portfolio of Nokia Federal Solutions. And its objective is simple. Its focus is on accelerating co-innovation and co-development with partners in the U.S. and Finland across NATO and Five Eyes nations. And when you think about these customer segments, while they're all slightly different, one thing is consistent. They all share a common need for Nokia's core technologies from optical to IP to fixed access to core and Radio Networks. We're uniquely positioned for this moment and this opportunity because we are the only Western company with a complete portfolio to power the most critical networks in the world. However, technology is great. Passion is important, but it's ultimately not enough. Winning requires focus, execution, speed and agility. And that's why we've outlined 5 strategic priorities to guide our strategy. Let me walk you through them. First, number one, accelerate growth in AI and cloud. We've been talking about this quite a bit since I started. And what we're doing is simple. We're aligning our portfolio to the infrastructure that powers the AI supercycle from data centers to the intelligent edge, and we're capturing the demand that we see in the market today. Second, we want to lead the era of connectivity with AI-native networks in 6G because we're pioneering trusted, secure AI-powered networks that make connectivity invisible and intelligent. Our partnership with NVIDIA is a signpost of our strategic intent in this space. Third, I've talked about this a little bit already, but let me be explicit. We want to grow by co-innovating with our customers and partners. The reality is for us -- for where we are today, the products we have in market and the future we're building, many of our best innovations don't come just within our own labs. They actually come from co-development and co-engineering with our customers. And while we're doing well, I want to see us lean in here more, driving co-creation that improves performance for customers and strengthens our own competitiveness, giving us more sustainable differentiation in the market. Fourth, this is all about focus, deploying capital where we can differentiate. This starts with R&D. We will invest where we see a technology advantage for Nokia, where it's clear, where we can deliver it at scale. And everywhere else where we cannot deliver that differentiation, we're going to partner with the best in the industry to accelerate time to value. There's a great example of this in our core, our core networks, Core Software, where we focused on real software differentiation. And I'll talk about that a little bit more later. But in that, what's not as obvious is we made a very important strategic decision. We recognize that building our own cloud stack was going to be something where we could not add differentiated value, and it was something that would slow customer adoption of our solutions. So we made a bold decision and partnered with Red Hat instead of building our own stack. And when you look now at what we've done, we've accelerated our footprint across multiple public cloud platforms. And finally, most importantly, taking these steps to ensure we're unlocking sustainable returns. This comes down to a few principles. Number one, we want to drive AI-enabled productivity. Number two, we're empowering Team Nokia. And number three, we want to make sure that everything we do is associated with delivering durable value for our shareholders. Our strategy is clear. It's focused. It positions us to lead. And ultimately, now it comes down to one thing, execution. And just so I'm clear, since I started, we've already actually begun to execute against these priorities. One of the key steps was making Nokia a more outside-in organization. And what I mean by that is aligning us more closely with how our customers buy, how the markets are evolving and making sure we're deploying capital against where we see the greatest opportunities. And now we're taking the next step, simplifying and streamlining our organization because we want to be able to accelerate innovation, unlock operating leverage and move faster in the markets that we're in. Starting January 1, we're going to move from 4 business groups to 2 business segments. Network Infrastructure is the first. Network Infrastructure is our Optical Networks, our IP Networks and Fixed Networks portfolio. And if you look at the past 12 months, Network Infrastructure generated approximately EUR 7.8 billion in revenue and at a 10% operating margin. It also delivered a 43% gross margin. NI will continue to be led by David, and you'll hear from David a little bit later this morning. What you're going to hear from him is that we view NI as our near-term growth engine because we have clear technology leadership and strong customer momentum. Optical and IP are winning categories for us, and our leadership in Fixed Networks positions us well as global fiber investment continues to scale. The reality is this segment is already sitting at the center of the AI supercycle, and it's where we're already capturing the early waves of AI-driven demand. Our second segment will be Mobile Infrastructure. This brings together our Core Software, our Radio Networks and Technology Standards. And when you look at Mobile Infrastructure over the past 12 months, it's an approximately EUR 11.6 billion business with 48% gross margin and 13% operating profit. We're in the process of seeking a permanent leader for MI. In the interim, it will be led by me. And MI is where we're focused on improving execution, product performance and ultimately, returns. We have some strong foundations to build on in this business. Our leadership position in Core Software and in automation is already enabling us to grow at above market rates and the robust portfolio we have of IP and Technology Standards provides durable profit and cash flow. But we also recognize that while we've improved product competitiveness in Radio Networks, we still need to deliver stronger financial returns. But we also fundamentally believe that while this market is flat today, this is where the next wave of innovation and opportunity will come from because ultimately, as I touched on earlier, as AI extends into the physical world, we see a tremendous opportunity for the need for AI-native networks. And this will be not only with 5G today, but ultimately, the foundation of what we believe will be 6G. And we have a unique opportunity to lead the industry with what we're doing in AI RAN to make sure that we can execute on this opportunity and capture it and lead again. This is important because this is a fundamental tenet of this new structure. This structure gives us the clarity and the accountability that we need to not only address the near-term challenges, but to position the business for long-term sustainable growth and value. And more importantly, it aligns our business with how the customers buy, ultimately, how our customers see us and where their demand is shifting. It also gives us flexibility across both businesses to allocate capital and talent in the areas where we can create the most value and unlock operating leverage. But this is one step. The other thing we need to continue to do is to pursue active portfolio management. And we've announced a set of steps today around taking exactly those steps, allocating capital away from areas that don't fit our strategy or don't fit our business. And so what we're announcing today is that we're creating a portfolio business segment. This segment will include 4 businesses: Fixed Wireless Access Customer Premise Equipment, Site Implementation and Outside Plant Services, Enterprise Campus Edge Solutions and Microwave Radio. I want to be clear, these are good businesses. But when we looked at these businesses in terms of the market opportunity and most importantly, against the 5 strategic priorities that I outlined, they're simply not the right fit with our strategy. Over the past 12 months, these businesses generated approximately EUR 900 million in net sales with a gross margin of 22% and an operating loss of about EUR 100 million. We've set out a plan to improve execution in these businesses and to define the right path forward for each of them during 2026. Our priority is to ensure continuity for our employees and for our customers. And as we all know, this is an important step, but an organizational structure is ultimately only a step in the process of execution. Execution ultimately comes down to having the right people. And that's exactly what we've been building since I started, a new leadership team to take Nokia forward. This team is a combination of existing Nokia leaders and new talent from joining outside. In fact, when you look at the existing leaders, what you'll notice is almost every single one of them has had some kind of role expansion since I started. And in terms of new members, last week, we announced Kristen Pressner will join as our new Chief People Officer. She's joining us from being the CPO at Roche Diagnostics, and she'll start on May 1, 2026. Her charter will be to develop our culture and talent to ensure that we're prepared to meet the challenges ahead. And as I said, not only have we transformed some of the existing members' roles, we've brought in a number of new members to the team since I started. But the key thing here is when you look at this organization and you look at the GLT, they're all aligned to the leadership structure for the new Nokia we're building. I'm excited about this because this is a team that's rich in experience, diverse in background and united in mindset and purpose. And I'm really thrilled you're going to get to hear from a number of them today. Pallavi, Raghav, David, Patrick, Marco. And the last thing, of course, in strategy and execution is with structure, team is ultimately culture. And this is something that we've been hard at work at. We've been starting to evolve Nokia's culture. We still have a lot of work to do here, but we have a new emerging culture, and it has a straightforward approach and a simple name. We call it Team Nokia. It's -- as I said, it's a simple name, and it's actually a pretty fundamental concept. It's based on everyone having clear roles and accountability, empowerment to go execute them and the importance of while we each play our position, we all come together to ensure the shared success of the company. That's called winning together. And the reality is we're already seeing benefits of this because when we operate as one team, we move faster. We're more agile. We make better decisions, and we deliver better outcomes. When we take accountability and lean in to help each other succeed, we create results that show up for our customers, our employees and our shareholders. A recent example of this was a customer win, a win with VodafoneThree. We won a significant market share expansion in their 5G stand-alone network in the U.K. And the reality was when you go back and look at this deal, this wasn't about one segment or one team winning a deal. It was about Core and Radio Networks teams coming together to provide an integrated solution. That's how we deliver for our customers and ultimately, how we win together. It's what the Team Nokia we're building today looks like. Nokia changed the world once by connecting people. We're at a point in time where we have the opportunity to change it again by connecting intelligence. This is the new chapter of Nokia, focused, differentiated, trusted and already putting points on the board in the AI era. Marco will give you more detail, but I want to also summarize briefly how it shows up in our results. First, we're using 2 key indicators, revenue growth and operating margin to demonstrate how we're unlocking the opportunity for AI, while we unlock operating leverage in Network Infrastructure. Second, we're establishing a clear baseline to position Mobile Infrastructure for improved returns while we invest in the long-term opportunity we see in the company. And third, we're driving company-wide efficiency, running a leaner center, unlocking corporate -- sorry, unlocking operating leverage across the business and ensuring strong consistent cash generation for our shareholders. And all of that underpins our long-term value creation. It's why we believe that this is both a compelling near-term investment opportunity and a platform for long-term sustainable shareholder value. Because fundamentally, what we offer today is an opportunity to play in the AI supercycle in the near term and will deliver midterm profit expansion targeting double-digit operating profit growth through 2028. But we're not just stopping there. We're investing in areas that are going to continue to position Nokia for sustainable growth. And in doing so, we're going to be incredibly disciplined. We'll be disciplined about our approach to portfolio management and to capital allocation and driving -- continuing to drive productivity improvements. This is fundamentally a unique and compelling investment opportunity. And I'm excited for you to hear more about it from the rest of the team that's here with me today. So with that, I'd like to introduce Pallavi, our Chief Technology and AI Officer.
Pallavi Mahajan
executiveThank you, Justin. It is so nice to be here in front of all of you as part of my very first Capital Markets Day with Nokia. Now as a technologist, I have a strong eye of spotting when the next wave of disruption is going to hit, ride that wave and then be the disruptor. I was born doing networking. And then a decade back, I moved to go back and build the compute for the AI infrastructure, started with the cloud, then to the edge and then to the data center. Now as I have been building the AI infrastructure, I can now see that the next wave of disruption is coming. And this time, it is going to disrupt the networks. Fundamentally, if you look at it, the AI supercycle, it has put an exponential growth on the demands of these networks. Now whether it is latency, whether it is capacity, whether it's bandwidth, whether it's reliability. And these metrics, they've always been vital. But today, they are increasingly becoming critical in scale and in urgency because this demands a new kind of network, networks that connect intelligence and networks that become smarter by using that intelligence. And Nokia is the only Western company which has a comprehensive portfolio, spanning radio, core, access, transport, IP, all the way up to the cloud, uniquely positioned to shape and deliver the networks of today and tomorrow. And this is why I'm so excited to have joined Nokia as the Chief Technology and AI Officer. Now let me start by sharing my journey. I told you about riding these waves, so how I've gone about and gone through those waves, the lessons that each of the waves have taught to this industry and how we are going to use those lessons as we go about and make a leapfrog in building these AI native networks. Now Justin was talking about the Internet supercycle. That's where I started my career building networks for the early Internet. And at that point of time, networks were all about speeds and feeds. And then this industry was disrupted with software-defined networking. Now I was a core part of the team that went about and defined how the control plane and the data plane should be separated. And then a core architect to move networks from CLIs to APIs, having authored many, many RFCs. And this is where programmability became the norm. Now next was cloud. Cloud gave users scalability, elasticity, flexibility. But to leapfrog clouds adoption, we introduced a new currency, and that was about trust and security. And then that just made the clouds fly. Now as I was building the cloud, I could see that there was a tiny little thing called machine learning, which was starting to pick up. You could see intelligent weather predictions coming in. You could see some critical drug discoveries being possible because of the technology. And I decided to ride that wave by building supercomputers for high-performance compute workloads. Now remember, at that point of time, AI was just yet another high-performance compute workload. And as we could see the next wave of disruption was just around the corner, and that was with model training and inferencing, and that is when by building the world's first exaflop supercomputer we moved this industry from petaflops to exaflops. And all of this innovation actually made vision-based inferencing happen. It started first at the edge, it then moved over to the data center, and finally moved over to the cloud. And as I started to see more and more AI move over to the cloud, I moved over to that side to build the AI-based cloud infrastructure that has enabled the next wave of disruption, which is generative AI. Now suddenly, you could see that model sizes started to explode from millions of parameters to trillions of parameters. ChatGPT, I think it started with about 117 million parameters. And today, it's close to about 2 trillion parameters. And today, we have entered the world of agentic AI. This is where intelligent agents interact, and there's massive machine-to-machine chatter. Now if you see, we've had massive technology disruptions in such a short span of time. And the key to this transformation was actually fueled by open ecosystems, open data, open framework, open models because openness fosters innovation and collaboration. Now throughout this AI supercycle, networks have been foundational and networks have also gone about and changed, whether you're talking about scaling up for machine learning, whether we are talking about scaling out for generative AI or we are talking about scaling across for agentic AI. But now there is another disruption waiting to happen in this AI supercycle. And I can actually see it coming because AI is now on the cusp of the next wave of transformation, which is physical AI. This is where the boundaries of the physical and the digital worlds are going to get blurred. Now think about it. This is the autonomous vehicles, drones, AR/VR glasses, intelligent factories, health care. This is the world where critical essential services will demand that the network should always be on, where subsplit second decisions need to be made and every millisecond matters. And with physical AI, we will have robots standing hand-to-hand with humans, with heavy machinery. And now just imagine that these robots, the safety and the motion control loops that they need, they need decisions to be taken in the matter of microseconds. Now one network slip and the robot can actually miss a safety stop. So in these environments, it's about safety. Now let's step back and look at this whole transformation that I'm talking of. Gen AI was 3 years back. 2025 is the year of agentic AI. And now I can clearly see that physical AI is knocking at our doors. And this evolution of AI will exponentially change the dimensions of the network themselves. Now whether it is bandwidth, whether it is capacity, whether it is latency, whether it is reliability, all of these KPIs are changing with AI. Now let me hit on a few examples and talk about how AI is changing traffic. And then what does it mean for each of the KPIs that I just spoke about. [Presentation]
Pallavi Mahajan
executiveNow as you see in this video, I started with a voice call. Can you hear me? I moved over to a video call. Can you see me? And as I moved from voice to video, you could see that the bandwidth increased, the bandwidth demand increased. But still, the traffic was very predictable. The other important point to see here is that the downlink traffic is higher than the uplink traffic. Now this is the world of yesterday, as I like to call it. Let's look at the world of today. [Presentation]
Pallavi Mahajan
executiveNow as you see, the traffic is bursty, the traffic is unpredictable. And what you also see in here is that the uplink traffic is higher than the downlink traffic. In fact, my teams in Bell Labs are predicting that in the new world, today, the downlink to uplink ratio is 12:1, and it's going to move to 4:1. And we are seeing more and more AI-native traffic originating from mobile devices, 48% of ChatGPT, 61% of Gemini's AI traffic is originating from mobile devices. Now but wait, what we just saw was just 1 AR experience on one device. Tomorrow, the connected landscape will look radically different. AR glasses are going to be common, as common as smartphones. We will be using them for navigation, for shopping, for translation. 50% of autonomous vehicles will be driving by themselves. Tens of thousands of robots will be delivering parcels. AI agents will be there in every store for pricing, for merchandising, for better customer engagement. And then think about all the city edge AI factories that will be orchestrating traffic, energy, logistics, all in real time. Now let's just start doing the numbers, multiply that across cities, multiply that across countries, across the world. The cumulative effect is staggering. We are talking of billions of devices generating AI-native traffic, streaming video, telemetry, immersive experiences, all happening simultaneously. Now to power this future, networks must also scale across 3 critical dimensions. We are talking about reliability. We are talking about bandwidth. We are talking about latency. Let's start with reliability. Today's networks, they deliver 99.999%. Now what does 99.999% mean? It means that the networks -- there could be minutes of downtime in a year. But we were talking about robots on a factory. When robots on a factory floor are working hand-in-hand with humans, the downtime has to shrink to seconds. And we are now starting to talk about 99.9999%. 99.9999% reliability because one missed safety signal can cause an accident. Now let's look at bandwidth. We talked about -- we showed you an AR/VR example. We have so much of AI inferencing that is happening. And all of this -- because of this, the bandwidth has already jumped 7x to 400 gigs per port. But tomorrow's network, they need terabit class capacity to feed these giant AI models and real-time video streams. Now think about all the AR glasses that are going to render 3D environments, autonomous vehicles, all of them streaming sensor data at the same time. And now let's look at the third metric, which is latency. Today, latency is about 10 to 20 milliseconds, and that works well for video calls. But imagine, once again, the robots in a factory floor, when they are making safety decisions, we are talking of sub-millisecond latency. And when you look at these numbers, you might feel like, okay, these are some small jumps that we are talking about. But as a technologist, having done this in my life, I can tell you that in order to make these leaps, it is a lot of hard work and a lot of research and development that goes in order to make it happen. Because when the industry moved from 9.99% to 99.999%, it took us a lot of work. And now we are pushing even further to get these networks ready for AI-native traffic. And now we spoke about bandwidth, how we have to increase bandwidth. We spoke about how we need to reduce latency. But one of the very fundamental things that we also have to do is you cannot increase the power envelope. And in fact, we at Nokia, we are constantly pursuing to go about and innovate to decrease the power per bit, not in a linear fashion, but in an exponential fashion. Now I spoke about all of that. But there is also -- we are also starting to hit some fundamental laws of physics. Spectrum is finite, energy is finite. So the question really is, is there a smarter way? Is there a different way to now build these networks? And I feel that this is the opportunity that is in front of us. Now I joined Nokia about 2 months back. And when I joined Nokia, I already knew that Nokia had these end-to-end assets across the network. But in the last 2 months that I've been here, I have been digging very deep across our portfolio. And I have discovered that we have some incredible work going on. We have a clear road map. We have a clear road map that spans across chipsets, across software and all our assets. And I feel that all of this is going to enable us to lead through the next wave of building these truly AI native networks. Now let's start with RAN. In RAN, our strategic asset is our software, and this is the anyRAN portfolio. And in fact, this was the very first thing that I did after I joined. We went about and forged and expanded our partnership with NVIDIA by bringing in NVIDIA's [ R-PRO ] GPUs into our radio networks. Now what this enables us to do is this enables us to bring in AI-based innovations into the base bands. Now with this, we are bringing in GPU support to our proven field-hardened software on the AI RAN platform, which now enables a seamless software-defined evolution. Let's hit on to the core. This is where the team has actually done some fundamental really rock-solid work, as Justin was talking about, in making it fully cloud native, which means that this software has no hardware dependencies. And now this team is working on making it more AI native because in the world of AI applications, in the world of AR devices, in the world of robots, they are not going to speak 3GPP. So we are evolving the core beyond the traditional boundaries, making it programmable, making it agentic, making it service aware, making it ready for AI-native functions, functions like real-time translation, fraud detection and much more. Now in IP routing, our portfolio is built on unique silicon. This is a silicon that we call as FP5. And then on top of it, we have some robust software, which has hardened protocols built APIs, the programmability that I was talking about. And in fixed access, we are pushing the performance frontier. We recently launched the world's first 50-gig PON. This is where we are getting ready for ultra-fast broadband for enterprises, for campuses and for AI-heavy edge sites. Now in IP networks, we delivered the fabric that ties everything together. Our new switches have actually doubled the performance at 1.6 terabits per second. Now optical. This is where our differential comes in by owning the full stack. Now this is a market which is rapidly evolving. And this is where our innovation in material sizes is absolutely essential. And this is the work that David and his team are doing because it is work like this that helps us achieve capacities like 1.2 terabits per second, capacity like 1.6 terabit per second. It's only possible through this level of innovation. Now our 800-gig coherent pluggables, these give operators and hyperscalers the headroom that the AI era demands. And across all these domains, on top of this, we have our software, which is becoming more and more intelligent. Our EDA platform actually brings in AIOps into operations, cutting the downtime by up to 96%. And Altiplano's new AI models and automation tools are making networks more reliable and easier to operate. Now like I shared, the KPIs that the networks of the future demand is very hard. And that is why myself, as the Chief Technology and AI Officer, I'm hyper-focused on taking all of Nokia's differentiating assets and doing the hard thing, which is harnessing the rich data, the deep insights and the domain expertise that we have built over years and bringing AI into the protocols and the algorithms that made these networks happen. Now in short, what I'm talking about is that the networks that have powered AI are now going to become more intelligent by using AI. Now building this intelligence does not happen by chance. There are 2 foundational elements that you need to go about and bring in intelligence. It's data and it's domain expertise. By the way, this is exactly where Nokia stands apart. With more than 30-plus years of experience in digital networks, I like to say that from voice to packets over TCP/IP, we own the network from radio to cloud. Now what I mean by this is when a voice call evolves, this is like sound waves, it gets translated to analog signals to digital frames to RTP packets over TCP/IP. It traverses the radio. It traverses the transport. It traverses the IP switching domains before reaching the cloud edge. And this is where with assets spanning radio, core, access, transport, data center, cloud, we manage the full protocol stack. I like to call it from waveform to workload. Now this means that we have unmatched visibility across the network. We have unique, hard-to-replicate data that gives us a training and inferencing edge to go about and create these AI models for the networks. And from a domain knowledge perspective, this is where decades of experience, working closely with operators around the world means that we have a very deep understanding of the full network. We understand how our customers go about and design. We understand how our customers go about and install their networks, to how they go about and optimize these networks. Now let me give you a couple of examples to show how we will be bringing in this intelligence and why it matters. I spoke about the strategic advantage in our portfolio with our anyRAN software. Now let's talk about beamforming as an example. So this is where the partnership that we did with NVIDIA, which is the AI RAN partnership also comes in. Now what is beamforming? Beamforming is a technique which is actually very, very foundational for model high-performing, high-frequency networks. Essentially, what beamforming does is that it allows you to focus radio signals, like spotlights, spotlights that focus users rather than broadcasting everywhere. Now for beamforming to work, it has to continuously go about and track the network and figure out where the best beam placement should be. Now today, the way you do it is because these algorithms were written some 30 years back, the way you actually go about and do it is using brute force scanning. So the network goes about and sends hundreds of probes, measures each one of them and then selects the one which has the best signal. Now this works, but it's slow. It's bandwidth hungry, it's compute intensive. Now what if instead of brute force scanning, the network could predict where the optimal beam should be. And that's exactly what our researchers at Bell Labs have done by bringing in AI-driven patient optimization. What we've done is we've made beamforming now into a learning problem. Now what happens is every time the network sends a probe, we go about -- the AI model goes about and updates the signal landscape, which means it updates the model. And then it starts predicting where the best beam placement should be. So now instead of scanning hundreds of probes, hundreds of beams, the network just goes about and sends a few probes and can still land within 1 decibel of optimal precision. Now the results are straightforward. We're talking of faster beam alignment, which means better user experience. You now need less spectrum overhead, which means less CapEx. And you need less compute, which means less energy, which means less OpEx. Now when I was talking about our portfolio, on top of our portfolio, we are also building a unifying intelligent layer that we call as autonomous networks. This is a layer that is going to make the network simple to manage. This is where we are bringing in intent-based self-management, self-optimization, self-healing, self-security. And to show you what it looks like, let me actually take an example. Now Justin spoke about how Nokia today powers the data centers that connect -- that interconnects 9 of the 10 top hyperscalers. Now what these hyperscalers really want is they want reliable optical backbone that connects these massive AI GPU, AI factories. Now this is where we are bringing in a layer of software applications called WaveSuite. It has 3 big things. First, it brings in deterministic AI to accurately model the performance of the Optical Networks and then do end-to-end optimization. Second, it uses generative AI to explain the trade-offs to the human operator who's going about and configuring and optimizing the network. Third, with its intimate connection with the optical signal processors, it can monitor the extremely sensitive optical signal properties and can predict non-trusted activities before they affect any service. Now we are starting to talk about networks that just do not react. These are networks that are now anticipating. In fact, in a live trial with du in the UAE, we saw that by using this, the optimized performance modeling, it cuts the planning time in half, and it actually improved the design efficacy by 30%. Now as I wrap up, I will reiterate. Our pursuit is simple. We will use every ounce of intelligence available to us, our assets, our data, our domain expertise and our partnership, our deep partnership with telcos and hyperscalers to build networks for the new era of AI-native traffic, networks that just don't carry intelligence, but networks that continuously learn, adapt, protect and improve. And as we build these networks, we will partner with the best-in-breed partners. Justin was talking about how we did the partnership with Red Hat. We will partner with folks in silicon, with folks in software, with folks in platforms to help our customers unlock their next wave of growth. Now talking about customers, I'm going to hand it over to Raghav. Thank you.
Raghav Sahgal
executiveThank you, Pallavi. That was very inspiring. It's fantastic to be here, and good morning to all of you, by the way. Just listening to what Pallavi and Justin have just shared with us, there are some very powerful themes that actually start to emerge in this era of what you're calling as the AI super cycle. The pace of technology change is unlike anything that we've seen before. And I think you guys already know this. Silicon is moving at a pace that is actually every 2 years, you're getting a fivefold increase in just the speeds of the GPUs. And actually, if you put that into a stack, that's about 30x in terms of improvements that you're getting. As we just heard from Pallavi as well as from Justin, AI is scaling at a pretty alarming rate. And I can tell you that whatever we predict there in terms of growth rates, I'm sure it will outgrow that as well. And what this is really accelerating is learning and decision-making and unprecedented scale. And all of this is also causing a lot of growth in the data traffic, but not just data, but as Justin talked about, was in the area of tokens, giving rise to new digital currencies. Now simultaneously, we're also seeing this emergence of the physical and the digital world that Pallavi talked about. There are new types of devices coming out from Meta, Microsoft, other players. There's robots, drones and sensors and virtual platforms, and they're exploding in numbers, creating new immersive experiences that give rise to an entirely new set of services. And amid this transformation, the fundamental challenge that we all have is how do we keep up with this change. And the challenge that we have with the customers have is that how do they future-proof these networks and data centers to scale with the massive but unpredictable data growth. That's the biggest challenge they're facing. And the key thing for the telco customers is that you have to be able to deliver this at the improved power per bit and cost per bit, building automation into this increasingly complex systems while all maintaining 99.999% and also addressing the cybersecurity risk that we are actually facing out there. Now about the change, it's not so much about the change. It's more about how we actually adapt to that change, how our customers do it, how do we do it and also fast enough. And those who can master this transformation are actually going to be the ones that actually create tremendous value. And this was the opportunity that actually got me excited personally. And I had to just sit down with Justin and say, listen, this is an amazing moment in time in our industry, and I wanted to be at the center of it. I knew the customers, and I wanted the role to be very close to the customers. And that's why I took on the responsibility of being the Chief Customer Officer for the company. Now we all travel. And I've been traveling extensively, meeting our customers. Actually, if you want to send me a Christmas present this year, you can direct it to Seat 16A on United Airlines out of San Francisco. So feel free to do that. But what is really interesting is that when I meet them is that the customers are extremely optimistic, but there's a level of anxiety in them as well. And what they're really looking for is that in this journey, in this change, how do they latch on to trusted partners that actually can -- actually guide them through this journey of this enormous change that the world is witnessing. There is a second fundamental challenge that they're also facing, and that is skills, how do they upgrade the skills, where do they get new talent to adapt to this change at this speed. Now what is interesting is that as I talk to the customers, they are actually looking at redefining the engagement bottle between customers and suppliers and vendors. And what they also have to do is they recognize that they have to partner with a much, much broader ecosystem out there. Now the traditional way of acquiring technology was to set up your requirements in an RFP, and we used to respond to those RFPs. But with the innovation cycles that we are in today, that is something that's just not quite going to work. The fastest speed that matches the velocity of technology itself is what we've got to implement. The other area that has also become increasingly obvious is that these transactional relationships need to turn into strategic relationships and this notion of customer intimacy, and I think we heard it from Justin, we heard it from Pallavi and this powerful notion of co-creation. And what that means is it's not just about selling products, but it's actually our engineers sitting down with their technology teams and actually shaping the future, aligning the road maps, working by side by side to deliver value and outcomes. That is the journey, and that is the way, the mantra of working together going forward. Now what is interesting is, as I talk to these customers, we have a very, very unique position. Customers appreciate the relevance Nokia brings to them. So you say, why? What are those reasons? Well, we talked about the broad portfolio. Pallavi went through it. We have a portfolio that cuts across the entire gamut of the network and also within the data centers themselves. And that is something that is really appreciated by our customers. The second, our heritage in delivering mission-critical networks over the past multiple decades that we've been doing. And that is not easy to do. The investments that we are making that we've talked about in cloud and AI, and they see this supercycle as a very key part of what they have to play in, and they're happy to see that. And then we've talked about this, and you'll hear this again and again, it's this co-creation learning mindset, which really helps them modernize networks and data centers while ensuring 2 fundamental things: trust and security at scale. Now what they are really intrigued about is the vision. If you know the game of ice hockey, the vision really is where the puck is going to be and the journey to that position. And it's not so much of where the puck is today, and they really truly appreciate that. Now this slide is something that Justin already showed a little bit earlier. But this is just a place as a reminder of the customer segments that we serve. The market opportunity in the CapEx is pretty large, as you can see in the segments we serve. So what I'm going to try and do over the next few minutes is to really unpack these customer segments to show you how we unlock value and actually give you examples of customers of how we are innovating with them. So let's get on this journey for the telecommunication providers. The telcos have been a foundation of a business that we built Nokia on. You can see a whole group of logos that are out there. These are some of our strategic customers that we do business with. But here are some interesting facts that I'd like to share with you. If you look at the 5G stand-alone network in itself, 70% of the world's 5G networks as stand-alone networks actually include the Nokia core platform. Let's look at fiber. 70% of the fiber broadband connections in North America run on Nokia Solutions. And here's another interesting statistic. Over 1 million base stations, which actually power 15 of the world's 20 fastest networks run Nokia Solutions. That's pretty cool. Now what the AI supercycle really enables is while it creates opportunities, let's be real, there are challenges in this industry. The customers are facing issues around capital returns, monetization, ARPU slowdown, but the opportunity that the AI supercycle now presents with this explosion in traffic brings opportunity to monetize just not bandwidth, but things like AI tokens and other types of services that we will develop on top of the network. And that's where the excitement is. That's where the opportunity is. Now this requires that you've got to transition these networks to support this large explosion of traffic. And this is where our customers are actually moving down a curve to drive fiber modernization, mobile densification and implementing cloud-native 5G stand-alone core capabilities and augmenting satellite as well to be able to provide coverage on an end-to-end basis. That's where the opportunity is. Now the most innovative telcos are leading with value. It's very, very important that that's the metric that they're setting. They're adding new offerings like security, APIs, dedicated bandwidth and laying the foundation of AI and networks to the path of 6G. Now we heard this from Pallavi, all provisionings in their networks for the changes that she described requires the impact of uplink, inferencing and AI at the edge and enabling autonomous automation, to name a few, that they have to embark as a journey on. Now it's time to give you some real concrete examples where I actually have the luxury and the privilege to have personally spent some time on. Let's look at T-Mobile in the United States. It's one of the industry's most innovative operators. And what does partnership mean to them? It means in practice where they work with us, NVIDIA and Dell to lead in AI RAN. And what did we do here? We combine radio expertise with accelerated computing to create networks that learn and optimize in real time using artificial intelligence. Now I'm very, very pleased to announce that last week, we actually achieved the first live RF call that was established in an outdoor lab system using a commercial device. This is a powerful first and a great proof point of innovation in the industry that we accomplished with T-Mobile. Now Justin spoke about AT&T, another truly innovative operator. A year ago, we signed a 5-year deal to deploy the next-generation fiber access technology to support one of the largest fiber networks in the world. And this includes a range of next-generation PON technologies from 10 gig to 100 gig, giving AT&T the choice and flexibility to optimize its network to specific business needs. And we certainly appreciate AT&T's business, and we look forward to continuing to work with them in new areas. Now let's jump across the world and get into India. Bharti Airtel is one of the leading operators there, and they needed automation at enormous scale. Now I was personally involved in it. And when we talk enormous, we're talking about a country that has the highest population in the world. So it's pretty large. Now what we did with them is we actually sat down with their technical engineers and our technical engineers and actually co-created an appliance-based packet core innovation to manage traffic at the edge. This is really, really cool innovation, which is now actually deployed by more than 100 operators worldwide, reducing cost by 40% in global deployments. This is exactly what a clear demonstration of when we do something impactful with leading telcos, the rest of the world adopts. So it's very, very important that we co-create with the leading players in the world. Let's jump across to Europe. Deutsche Telekom is a leading operator there. And we actually codeveloped a transition with them from the legacy to our most advanced radio platforms. What did they want? They wanted flexibility. They wanted interoperable networks, and we earned their trust to truly open standard-based suppliers of radio networks. That was also pretty cool. Staying in Europe, I still recall this early discussions that we had with Telefonica Germany. And boy, they had a desire to really embrace the cloud and do something very, very different, to bring cloud-native functions, like core onto AWS, moving policy engine on to Google. And this is another striking example of pioneering industry-first approaches. Now telcos are something we continue to serve, but there are also subsegments of wholesalers that are growing faster than the telecom providers. One example is Zayo. We won IP there and we displaced a competitor. And we already have a long-standing relationship supporting their optical networking infrastructure with Zayo for already a while. So this is continuing to land and expand with our customers. So in conclusion, for telcos, whether it's AI RAN or fiber builds in the United States or it's automation at scale in India or openness in Europe, telcos tell me they choose Nokia because we are the only Western company that provides a broad market-leading portfolio that encompasses radio, core, fixed, fiber, transport with complete network automation and secure. So moving on, let's move on to one of the most exciting spaces of AI and cloud players. This is where we're seeing obviously a lot of growth that we all know about. Now I was with cloud and network services, and this is where I had personally the opportunity to lead the charge in forging strong ecosystem partnerships with leading cloud players like Google, AWS, Microsoft to transform and cloudify network functions to be running on hyperscaler platforms. Now the scope of that relationship has now expanded, accelerated by our Infinera acquisition, which now puts us in a very, very strong position, where 9 of the world's top 10 AI and cloud companies actually use Nokia Solutions. And as you can also see, there are hundreds of more that actually continue to be our customers in this space. So this is a truly exciting space for us. Actually, our success is just not limited to hyperscalers. We're rapidly expanding into emerging and innovators such as CoreWeave, Nscale, and these are really new providers scaling fast in the AI economy. We also see opportunities emerging in the intersection of cloud and telecom, particularly in managed optical, fiber networks that actually link data centers across the fast-growing regions like the Middle East and India. And let me give you a few examples here where we are winning. In Optical Networks, 2 major hyperscalers have chosen Nokia's 800-gig coherent pluggables and next-generation line systems. We co-design these with our customers to actually deliver 800 gigs over hundreds of kilometers with the lowest power and cost per bit in the industry. If we look at another key differentiator that we provided here was our U.S.-based fab and packaging facilities. And this provides supply chain assurance and resilience, which is very critical in this environment. Let's move on to IP. We secured wins here for our high-performance switching solutions with multiple hyperscalers and newer cloud players. Our super-spine platform here is the lowest power design in the industry, built for scale and future expansion. And these customers are really true partners in every sense of the word. We collaborate on multiyear road maps, tools, automation and services that will shape the next phase of the AI supercycle. Let's go on and look on to the last segment and look at the mission-critical enterprises, which also includes defense, an equally exciting area of growth. Here is where we are actually deploying 5G networks with the same reliability and performance and security that we actually deliver to the telcos. But these are purpose-built for agencies and industries in public safety, utilities, transportation, medical care and other industries as well. Now for example, in the Middle East, we're actually co-innovating with leading partners on secure private networks. And this is for critical infrastructure, like utilities, combining telco-grade reliability with unmatched cybersecurity expertise because these networks are critical networks that have to be secured. A new growth area is in defense, where the bar actually is a lot, lot higher. Here, trusted connectivity and defense-grade performance are simply nonnegotiable. Another reason why this sector is important for us, if you look back in time, some of the best innovations such as the Internet actually came out in defense, the DARPA net. So this is an important area where we can co-innovate and co-create new and emerging technologies. We've already delivered tactical wireless solutions in the U.S. Marine Corps and together with Telia and the Finnish Defense Forces successfully completed and conducted the world's first seamless 5G stand-alone slice handover between multiple countries in the live network, and we are proud and honored to serve the armed forces. In short, across defense and industry, Nokia is building trusted networks that actually protect, connect and enable the world's most vital infrastructure. The future of the AI economy runs on these networks, and we are actually engineering it together. I want to close with actually sharing with you 3 core principles that will actually guide us how we engage with our customers. And I got to tell you, top of the list is put the customer first. This is extremely, extremely important. And what does that mean? That means that every action we take must start with how it delivers value to our customers, ensuring that they sit in every interaction at the center of everything we do and the decisions we make. This is something I will take personally as a responsibility as a Chief Customer Officer. I know these customers well, and I will make sure that we actually deliver on our promise and actually a lot more. Number two, co-create. We've heard this word, and I think you'll continue to hear this word for the future. Our co-creation learning mindset is what truly, truly differentiates us. As I shared with you earlier, when we team closely with our customers, we just move faster together. And when we get it right with the lead customer, others follow, turning innovation into scale. And quite frankly, with EUR 4.5 billion invested annually in R&D, we have the muscle to solve real-world problems and deliver measurable business outcomes. And finally, I don't think I could get off the stage, my CFO will not allow me to do this is to make sure we deliver profitable growth together. This is really, really important. And here, we have to have laser focus on the markets and customers where we can jointly innovate, create value and drive success on both sides. The operating model that Justin outlined really reflects these principles in action. Now we've engaged with customers as multiple business units in the past, but now the path forward is to actually make sure that we come together unified to the face of the customer as team Nokia. And by aligning around all of our business groups and the value is really truly realized because when we focus on solution and needs of the customer and remove the complexity of business groups inside Nokia, that's when you win, and that has to be our focus. Now we are also going to expand our client executive program for strategic accounts. And this is to make sure that we make it easier for our customers to access our best talent, leverage our R&D and see a faster time to value. We live in the most exciting times in this industry that actually I've known across telco, AI cloud, mission-critical industries and defense. And by putting customer first, co-creating for the future and delivering profitable growth, we bring the actual AI supercycle to life. And this is just not a concept, but a reality that we are building together with our customers every day. And this is what really energizes me about the journey that we're on. So with that, I want to thank you, and I want to also make sure I pass it on to my friend, who will take you deeper into giving you insights into Network Infrastructure. So thank you very much.
David Heard
executiveGreat job. Thanks, Raghav. I appreciate it. It's a super exciting time, the power of Nokia and its brand and that reach with that customer set as well as that ability to co-collaborate and leverage the assets that the company has and the forward-looking work of Bell Labs as an ex competitor to Nokia, boy, it feels good to have that on my side today. For those of you who do not know me, and it's good to see some familiar faces, my name is David Heard. I came into Nokia, back to Nokia actually through the acquisition of Infinera. I was the CEO at Infinera. And prior to that, a long history in the telecommunications world. Justin mentioned that he spent his early career in 2G wireless. I started in 1G wireless with Bell Labs. I know it's hard to believe that I'm the older one. When it comes to the network, I've been in the access network. I actually left Bell Labs running the fixed network. So I have a very good idea of what's happened there. And I'm super proud of the spot that we're in, developed switches and routers out in the field and obviously, the recent optical experience. So bringing all these assets together is super exciting. It's also super interesting that being the ex CEO of a company that got bought, usually at this point in time, I'm a cost synergy. I'm not up on stage talking about the future. And I'm super happy that Justin has provided me the opportunity to show you that I'm a revenue synergy for the company going forward. So I want to talk a little bit about why am I here? What excites me about the future. I've seen the move from analog cellular to digital cellular, from circuit to packet, moving into a cloudified network. Those were all great growth trends. There were ebbs and flows. This super cycle that we're talking about is something very, very different. It is something that when we see the power of what this is putting together, Pallavi talked about that up speed. I want you to lock in your head what happened with uplink in that video call moving to an interactive AI call. When you look at network infrastructure, I don't just want you to think about the short-term prospects of growth, wonderful wins we're having and great market position we have, but what happens in an AI inferencing model when that traffic shifts from 12:1 to 4:1. So when you look at kind of the 4 key fundamental areas; one, there is no lack of growth opportunity here. So I'm not going to spend lots of time on this. This is a EUR 60 billion TAM, SAM, excuse me, that we're going after. So it is plenty of market. This is not -- I've been times in my career where I'm around searching for market opportunities. This is not that time. There's plenty of market opportunity in front of us. Number two, when you -- when I'm looking at things that excite me, a great growth opportunity is wonderful, but where are we starting from? This core network infrastructure fabric that Nokia has is #1 or #2 in every single segment that it's in. And look, I've been a smaller player in an industry. I've been #7 or #8 or #6 or #5. That is a very, very difficult position to try to wander into the wild world of AI. So I feel very good about those #1 and #2 positions. I'm going to talk a bit more about that. The other thing, the other perspective, kind of the compare and contrast from being in a smaller company is having the financial ability as well as the technical ability to execute. And when I look at our research and development investment, and Marco, it is investment, it is not spent of $1.6 billion, and I compare that to some of our competitors in the optical space, maybe in the access space, this is a multiple of what they're doing. Not only do I feel good about the number, but the people behind it and the road map competitiveness that this lays out. Not only do we have a terrific road map today that's winning, as Justin talked about earlier, but we're laying the foundational road maps that win even beyond this strategic period. And lastly, and I want to -- this is a careful listening moment, I think, for this audience, but it's great to have a big market. It's great to be #1 or #2. It's wonderful to have the bulk of investment to be able to leap ahead of the competition. But you want to make sure there's momentum in what you're doing. Momentum is a wonderful winning Elixir. And what you'll see is year-to-date in orders in that hyperscale space, we have now brought in $1.5 billion of orders. That's through 6 wins with hyperscalers, 2 in optical systems, 2 in IP and 2 in a brand-new $1 billion-plus market for us in pluggables. And we are beginning to scale that. And again, that's a year-to-date number that if you look at both Infinera and Nokia together and NI a year ago, that is a 3x increase. If you look at where Nokia was in part of the strategic acquisition, that's more like a 6 to 7x increase. So it's early days. But I like what I'm seeing in terms of the momentum in this business. It's about having the right market opportunity, the largest I've seen, the right team, the right technology to execute. And again, those customer engagements that Raghav talked about. So let me kind of break down network infrastructure for a second. It's made up of 3 foundational pieces. If you think about the fixed network is where all the residential and enterprise comes in, we are the clear #1 in that position. Usually, when I met one of these conferences, I'm saying, well, we're #1 or #2 except for Huawei. In this case, we are #1 in the world in fixed networks. That is an incredibly strategic position when you think about it in the future. It is not a super high-growth market today when we look at what inferencing does to that piece of the network, it is an incredibly strategic position to be in. Coming in from that kind of catcher's mitt of the network into the fabric of the network where the application meets the network, that is our IP networks for routing and switching. That historically was a $2.6 billion market. We are #1 in edge routing there. Again, I will tell you being #1 in edge routing, routing is much tougher than switching. We are now applying those assets, as I demonstrated in the last slide, into the hyperscale space. Optical Networks, again, about a $3.1 billion. These are all trailing 12-month figures where we're #1 or #2 in every segment. Feel good saying that, because I did start at #8 in the market, and that was no fun. Climbing up now, we actually are in a wonderful position to take advantage of the AI super cycle. Raghav did a very nice job talking about the market segmentation. So I'm only going to make a couple of key points here. Well, certainly, 9 out of the top 10 hyperscalers are there, but you're starting to see business wins and us scaling those business wins. 1,500 of the top service providers, it's wonderful. We can get into places we never -- that I never could get into before. And we have the wonderful assets of all of network infrastructure and all of Nokia to be able to pull together that value for our client base. And then when you look at the Mission Critical segment, this is a great segment I'm going to talk about where people need trusted technologies. And quite frankly, in many cases, they want to buy from somebody in network infrastructure that has all of the pieces. And we are uniquely positioned to be able to do that. When you look at our growth rates and what I'm going to talk about in terms of growth rates, I want you to remember a couple of things. One, if you look at 2024 results of the companies, most of our business, 80% of our business was with those telco players. And again, they're going through lots of transition, but they are not growing at a super-fast pace. So you are seeing the hyperscalers that I'll talk about growing at a faster pace, but traditionally, 80% of our business was with those telcos. By 2028, that number will be just under 60%. So you're going to see a traversing of new growth, and it's weighted average math. We're going to continue to grow with mission critical, actually ahead of the growth rate as well as service provider, but the sheer growth, as Justin talked about, of the hyperscalers and cloud majors around the world, the people building the AI factories is just tremendous. And again, pulling forth a ton of growth. All of these segments are looking for the same value proposition. They want to drive down power per bit, cost per bit. They want to make sure that they can scale and scale with some level of elasticity as well as drive a huge amount of agility and resiliency in their network. As Pallavi so eloquently said, the move from 5 9s to 6 9s, it's not easy. When you get both inside a data center, we -- there is no room for failure as we go. So that's just a quick view of the overall network infrastructure business. Look, there's no doubt AI is growing in terms of traffic. One thing some people don't understand is just how important that fiber rollout is and how early it is. This is typically where I say, my doctor says fiber is good for me, but this is getting ridiculous and you kind of give the corny laugh. 2 billion kilometers of fiber will be deployed over the next 5 years. You haven't seen anything yet as the #1 player in fiber, again, at the access. The person pulling that in the network and then optical connecting it, that's a good position to be in. Infrastructure spend, again, $3 trillion to $4 trillion, there's no lack of market opportunity. I was with one of the hyperscalers a couple of weeks ago. We were in a meeting. We were talking about CapEx. I kind of chuckled, said where are you at in your CapEx deployment. They talk about quarterly CapEx deployment. So they were talking about, well, we got to deploy still this, here's what we need. We're spending $28 billion a quarter. And if you think about that in the old days, when I used -- if you look at Verizon and AT&T and others, they were about a $20 billion CapEx for the entire year. So this is an opportunity where speed matters. I love the size that we have in network infrastructure in Nokia. And the whole point is making that move at a completely new clock speed. You make that move like a startup. And boy, that's exactly what our hyperscale customers, our AI cloud customers and even our telcos and mission critical customers want to see. Back to understanding the growth rate. I mentioned that 80% of our historical business was with the telecommunication service providers. Again, the telcos is growing at 1% to 2%. Enterprise and mission critical is about 7% to 9%. We intend to grow ahead of that. And then where you're going to see a lot of the growth is in the pink going forward. That's 16% growth. Remember, for Nokia, this was a new market segment. It was part of the thesis of purchasing Infinera. A lot of people ask, I can't be in Nokia Bell Labs. I can't be in a technology company without showing a nice network diagram here. Traditionally, what I would talk about is the wide area network, which I've already talked about with you, which is, hey, how access connects into the edge of the network in metro, how that connects into a long-haul network with cables traversing this planet, 10,000 kilometers underneath the sea. What's really changed for Nokia, the real change in this exposure to the AI market that you need to be aware of is what is happening inside these data center builds. And they're not just data center builds. These are AI factories people are building. We play in the front end of the business. So that's the traditional data center, which is still a significant portion of growth. That is the leaf/spine top-of-rack architecture. We have products that traverse in the space, again, using open merchant silicon on the switching side. I'll talk about 2 of those design wins that I talked about. One was in the front end, one was in the back end, which is where all the GPUs are clustered. All 3 of our products are applicable in the front end, including fixed. Fixed has an out-of-band solution to be able to manage the data center environment for resiliency purposes. In the scale out and scale across networks, in the back end, again, we have products that go across this. I'll give you a case example of a win here. We have an IP switching scaling across networks as well as the pluggable wins that we have are really for that interconnect into these AI gigafactories. And I'll give you more of the technology details going forward. But again, when I talk about that EUR 1.5 billion of orders to date, right, through that Q3 period, that's a big portion of what's -- where that spend is going. So when I talk about that recent order momentum, again, to give you a little bit more detail, I gave you the detail on the 6 wins on the left side here in terms of order intake. This is all orders year-to-date 2025. Optical Networks, it's growing quite nicely. Again, I think fortifying the investment thesis for Infinera, 40% optical growth year-over-year, year-to-date. And then again, in the 800-gig coherent pluggables, these are shipping. These little babies are shipping out there. I know you can -- I'll pass this around, Simon. You'll be able to take a look at it. These little babies are shipping. We've won, again, 2 contracts for these that, again, are ramping or in the period of ramping. I would expect to see that as revenue, more material revenue as we get into 2026 and continuing to grow and beyond. And then lastly, again, our switching products, rock solid out in the wide area network, a little later getting inside the data center, but boy, is the quality of what we're doing as well as the resiliency and the open nature of what we're doing, low power of what we're doing mattering. It's early innings, but year-over-year order pattern, 150% growth. So I'm going to very quickly try to step through these. I can't tell I get a little excited about what I do. In the optical space, if you talk about what people buy, this also explains the growth rates. Last year, 100% of what we did was optical systems. When you build optical systems, you were talking about selling in terms of the optical engines that drive them, tens of thousands, 20s of thousands and 30s of thousands of units. This business, again, was 100% of where we went -- where we've been. These applications, you'll always hear metro applications, long haul, subsea, where we're a leader, wholesalers or carrier's carrier. That's where, again, these optical systems are deployed and then interconnecting data centers in between. You need -- you use systems in many cases to be able to do so. The 2 new businesses for us, one in the pink here on pluggables, that is a new business for us. When you are selling pluggables, both in -- with hyperscalers, the annual needs are typically hundreds of thousands. So that is an exponential gain from systems. And then in the component space, there is the ability for us to be able to sell components. Now this is very early. We're looking at designs. It's not in our revenue for 2026. But we are, because of our foundational technology, building small components, right, that power networks that lower the power inside of data centers in between GPUs, I know you can really see this, right? There is a chip in my hand, to lower power 80% inside the data centers. When you're doing these, the chips that drive these that we build in our own fab. We're talking about 5 to tens of millions of units annually. So that is a whole new scale. The good news is we here at Nokia have our own vertical integration. We have our own fab. 2.5 years ago, even before Nokia bought Infinera, we had the forethought to say we're going to need more capacity here. For those of you that are following it, there's a lot of people very interested in indium phosphide laser capacity. When you talk about 5 million to 10 million units interconnecting GPUs driving power down, that drives some pretty incredible demand. 2.5 years ago, we have one fab in Sunnyvale, California. We embarked on building out a second fab in San Jose to increase our capacity by 25x. Great news. These fabs, relax, Marco, relax, these are not $1 billion fabs, $2 billion fabs, a couple of hundred-million-dollar fabs. In addition, we had some U.S. CHIPS Act support. So really, really great to see the support of the U.S. government. We then are able to package those photonically integrated circuits, which, by the way, we invented the photonically integrated circuit. We package them in transmit, receive optical assemblies. This is packaging, very intricate. This is an 800-gig package done in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Very, very strategic. The last time we had a supply chain pinch; we were able to gain share. So if they're -- again, building out the right capacity and having that super important. Lastly, on the DSP team, the DSPs are what drive kind of the Moore's Law of the optical network. Pallavi talked about having dollar per bit, power per bit. That's what we do. And I think our biggest problem before us, we had too small of a DSP team, so we could only spin new DSPs every so often. The typical design cycle for a telco in the past would have been new DSP every 4 years or so, 5 years would be fine. With the hyperscalers, they're looking for new DSPs for both pluggables as well as systems every 2 years. So the great news about putting together the 2 largest coherent DSP teams in the world, they're not just the largest, they're the best. That will continue to drive Moore's Law going forward for us. Again, to Justin's term, moving us at a very different clock speed. So very exciting, back to the growth rate. So you understand how I think about the weighted average math. Optical systems traditionally is growing at anywhere from 3% to 4%. You're going to see our big growth both in the optical systems that we've now closed with hyperscalers because they're growing faster than the telcos as well as in this coherent pluggable space. Again, full disclosure. We're in some qualification and testing, design testing. We've made test chips for this intra-data center space, again, brand-new SAM. This is not contemplated in our forward numbers. We have the capability. This is part of the beauty of Nokia coming together with Infinera. They have the resources that we've been able to apply to this brand-new field. So a nice market, great strong position, the right assets to win. This is my favorite part of the presentation. I've never done this in my career. I've been bought, and I get to grade the acquisition of Infinera. So on the left were the things that Nokia put up when they bought us. So they said, "Hey, we want to create optical networks powerhouse. We don't want any disruption to customers. We don't want a lot of overlap." What have we found? We put together a unified road map. The customer response has been outstanding. And overall, how have the results been? I haven't seen dis-synergies. We've actually delivered more than we expected. And how do you see that? The second piece kind of helps you there, which Nokia wanted to increase its presence in North America. Order presence there is, again, up 40% year-over-year in terms of orders. Increasing our presence in AI and cloud. Again, I won't repeat this over, good early. That number might seem big. To me, it's still small. There's plenty of forward opportunity. We are not getting yet our fair share, but those design wins are there. And as we begin to ramp and move on in our road map from 800 gig to 1.6T to 3.2T, that is plenty of green space for us to be able to grow. And then lastly, everybody wants to hear about the synergies. We are ahead of schedule, on track and ahead of schedule to be able to deliver those synergies. And we've got plenty of investment areas, again to be able to grow back to that revenue synergy rolling forward. So I will prove that I'm a revenue synergy. In terms of customer use cases, I won't go through this because I think I've gone through it nicely. I'm not going to grade myself nicely. I've gone through it. You can tell me whether it's nicely or not. Those pluggables were codeveloped with 2 hyperscalers. They wanted to have a standard way to do probabilistic constellation shaping. They wanted to be able to have certain software parameters on their pluggable. We delivered -- these pluggables can go kind of up to 1,700 kilometers, so they can be used for all different applications of -- depending on distance. Again, each win you do here is a couple of hundred million annually. The ability for us to get into components, this is not a win. This is a design example of using our component for 1.6 terabit inside the data center to lower the cost, to lower the power of the GPUs. Each deal like that could be, again, hundreds of millions annually. What Marco really likes about this is that when we're selling that, we're selling just the photanically integrated circuit. So in terms of inventories and ease, this is a great business, all accretive to the margins for the company, which helps us with that 300 to 700-point expansion in network infrastructure. In IP, I'm so excited because the next thing you plug a pluggable into is IP. On the access edge, this is a company that has the aggregation switching, the BNGs #1 in cell site routing that, again, this platform is rock solid, like in the optical domain where we have our own silicon or in that case, indium phosphide. We have our own chipsets here, too. And again, the FP Series, the FPcx that helps power a huge amount of applications required as you get closer to the edge. Again, they tend to be very, very quality sensitive, very, very sensitive on the feature sets required. We then bring that into the IP Edge and Core. So these are the 7700, the 7200 series products. We have developed rock-solid software and SR OS that our customers just love. In addition, we have the network automation, the NSP to be able to make that happen. That is where we're bringing in AI tools to help people build their networks and be able to spin up digital twins to be able to implement with ease, with high reliability out in the network. What we've been able to do is translate that. We've taken our SR OS software. We've opened it up, developed it on SR Linux and made that applicable for the data center play, right? The most fresh software stack out in the industry built on, again, decades of rock-solid experience out in the network. And we offer that as an open platform. We've also implemented our hardware with SONiC in an open environment. When you get into the hyperscalers, they like to choose. Our goal is build the world's best network elements that can be put together as a solution. The remainder of the platform down here, again, this tends to be -- there are some elements towards the edge where we're using merchant silicon as well. So we use the right silicon, as Pallavi said, for the right scenario. We're not going to spend lots of money spinning up our own silicon if there's a merchant approach that makes economic sense. So you put this all together, we have applications for DC gateway, front-end switching and back-end switching. We also have events-driven automation for AI operations for this portion of the business as well. Super important as you get some of these neoclouds that are building out massive AI factories and need the ability to configure, might not have the technical expertise, so they can use normal language to be able to configure, troubleshoot a network. In this case, just as an example, a couple of weeks ago, last week, actually, the 7220 was announced. That is our 100 and 2.4 terabit solution, 1.6T, Tomahawk 6 platform as well as I'm going to talk about our 18e design win that you're talking about 0.5 petabit of capability. Very similarly, when I look at the growth rates for this business, again, traditional IP routing and services, that is a 2% to 3% market. Look, it's a fundamentally sound market. There's areas we're going to continue to grow there. We're going to grow again, back to that Mission Critical segment that's growing 7% to 9%. That has been a nice segment for us with health care and utilities. You're going to see the growth, a big piece of the growth in the pink here, where we've again had design wins. Our goal here is you go land a couple of design wins, you land and expand. So we did that this year. Our plan is we've aligned our road map. We've seen a nice pull-through impact with the teams from both Infinera, Nokia Optical now working together with the IP team. And by the way, with the fixed team to be able to bring real solutions inside the data center. So again, from that weighted average math of the growth rate, that's what you're going to see. That scale across opportunity I talked about, that we won that's -- again, this is hundreds of millions of dollars of actual implementation as you win annually. So this is the scale across, which is our 18e, 7250. This is a 0.5 petabit with 576 ports of 800 gig connectivity. Who's got the pluggable? Yes. So go get another 575, and that completes a solution for this particular hyperscaler. On the neocloud side, these -- some of these are a bit smaller, but again, a bit smaller being $50 million a year. This is where we can use our entire platform. So I talk my own ear off. That's when you know you got to stop. The 7220, 7250, all of these platforms, they're using that plus EDA for these fast buildouts. So again, this 2 case examples here of wins that we're seeing out in the marketplace. Lightspan again, is somebody I competed against a long time ago, and they beat me. They were #1 out in the space. They are still a strong #1 out in the market. They are implementing the OLTs and the ONTs out in the market to power the residential market, the enterprise market. You heard references from Justin and Raghav talking about players like AT&T growing from 30 million subscribers to 60 million. That's a big deal. There are -- there's plenty of white space open. You see we've covered 600 million subs. 7 out of the top -- 7 out of 10 in the U.S. are ours. So this is a space we know very, very well and will be very, very important for inferencing rolling forward. We also have the automation to be able to make this work in the home. If anybody ever had a problem in your home with your Internet, 60% of the time, that problem is WiFi. It has nothing to do with the fixed solution. By us deploying Corteca, which is an in-home software, we're able to avert 60% of those calls. We're able to make call times go down by 50% and improve the Net Promoter Score of that service experience by 20 points. This is just starting business for us, but it's a way to continue to add value to our clients and margin to the network. Managing the OLTs out there, super important for us. We're able to do digital twinning. And actually, think about it, it's a passive optical network. How do you test active gear? We're able to do that through a digital twin through Altiplano. There are a few new applications. I've been in the job for about 5 months. The team is really working hard off that strategic position, looking at Optical LAN. We've announced our first product there very early. The out-of-band solution for data centers came by us pulling together with optical and IP and listening to our hyperscale customers. So again, a great business, a business that kind of the first thing we're doing is making -- continuing our leadership position, especially on that OLT side and ONT side with fiber. The second thing is, again, we're driving the margins up through software and the rationalization that Justin talked about. And then, look, one common -- I talked about my corny joke of fiber being good for you. Look, 50% of the networks are not even covered yet with fiber. So we are not in the late innings of the ball game here. With coax, we're less than 10% of the way there in conversion. And with Optical LAN, the game hasn't started. I'm still getting the beer of trying to find my seat. So there are lots of opportunities ahead. But right now, we're in that -- this business is a very stable business. It's always been profitable. We've got work to do to be able to drive that next level of innovation, feel good with the early insights. So this is all very wonderful, big markets, great product categories, early wins. But having a clear plan, Justin talked about the importance of execution in driving that. Well, we've got a clear plan for networks. It is going to be to drive that systems growth with both cloud and mission critical. You'll see us ramp those pluggables, not just 800 gig, but then the next generation of 1.6T. We will enter and scale the components market. It's still early to call the ball on when that will take an impact in our financials, right? I'm sure we're going to keep everybody plugged in as to that. In IP, it's driving growth in that data center switching, land and expand, rinse and repeat, land and expand, rinse and repeat. And then accelerating that mission critical business. That is really a great segment for us. And the big thing is continuing to take routing share in the telcos as they position themselves for inferencing and AI. In Fixed Networks, it's about continuing to extend. This is a great team, right, in fixed networks, they've done an unbelievable job. This move to XGS-PON. They've got their own chipset as well, Quillion, that drives 6 9s of availability. They're ahead of the curve here. That is a chipset that if you want to upgrade 10 gig to 25 gig, I don't have to dispatch trucks to go do that. I can fast provision that given we own our own chipset, which is also effective for our margins in the OLT. We are driving our own chipsets in some of the ONTs platforms. We're driving the automation. It's early days, but that will provide accretive value to us to expand our margins. And then lastly, I mentioned, there's a couple of really, really cool areas that you can leverage off this business, but it is very early days. So with that, Marco will go a little bit more into that. Hopefully, I've explained that 6 to 8 points of overall growth includes, again, a large degree of telco, a large degree of we're carrying over the historical systems, a much larger embedded base, fixed, it's growing a bit slower. If you pull out fixed and just look at optical and IP, that growth rate is 10% to 12%. You're going to see us driving, again, 300 to 700 basis points of margin expansion through the initiatives I've talked about. So why am I excited? And it's not just because I have 6 cups of coffee, we are well positioned in the market. Feels great. We have a clear strategy to win. There are opportunities to open up $1 billion markets. Who doesn't want to do that. And we have the scale and the vertical integration that I don't know, 7 years ago might not have seemed as important, but seems extremely relevant. As you want to increase your exposure to the AI super cycle, it's a great place to start. And we have the business momentum with our strategic customers to make that happen. So I hope I didn't wear you out. Hope I gave you a little bit of a snippet for what I see in network infrastructure. I appreciate your time and look forward to your insightful questions coming up. So with that, I'm going to bring it back over to my buddy, David Mulholland.
David Mulholland
executiveThanks, David. And just one clarification. Everywhere David said dollars, he meant euros. We will now take a 30-minute break. So we'll see you back here to restart at about 10:40. For those in the room, you're welcome to try and catch up with David's 6 coffees outside, but we'll intend to restart at 10:40. Thank you. [Break]
David Mulholland
executiveWelcome back, everyone. I hope you managed to get a drink or a coffee over the break, maybe not as many as David. But we're now ready to resume the event. So let me hand over to Justin to talk about our mobile infrastructure business.
Justin Hotard
executiveAll right. Thanks, David. And hopefully, you got a sense of why we're so excited about NI. And I also just want to touch on this point that David talked about. He's absolutely a revenue synergy. And more than that, he's breathed a ton of energy into our MI team. And I talked a little bit about the culture of bringing Infinera into our network infrastructure business, and there's been great cultural synergies and integration, but the leadership energy and the pace that, that team is moving at now is just so much faster and much more aligned to the market, exactly what we need at Nokia. Let me turn now and talk a little bit about mobile infrastructure. I just touched on this point about making us faster, simpler and more aligned to the market. And that's exactly what mobile infrastructure will do. And what I want to touch on, on mobile infrastructure is the opportunity we see. And I want to break it down in terms of what it is, why it matters and how we're positioning to win and create long-term value. So as I touched on in my earlier comments, mobile infrastructure on January 1 will bring 3 connected areas, and they're connected as our customers see them and as the market defines them. We'll bring in our core software business from cloud and network services, our baseband and radio systems for mobile networks, what we call radio networks, and our technology standards business, formerly Nokia Tech. And bringing them together gives us one single integrated platform focused on mobile connectivity from core to radio to standards. It's a platform with greater scale, better leverage and now we'll have much sharper focus. And I want to be clear, this isn't an internal reorganization exercise. This isn't a financial engineering exercise. It's about simplicity, aligning our portfolio with how our customers see us today and with our vision for the future of connectivity. And let me break down a little bit of this for you. Core software leads in autonomous and programmable networks. Today, we're giving telcos a cloud-native core with zero-touch automation and API-based monetization. Over the past 5 years, this business has outgrown the market. It's become the clear leader in Voice Core and in subscriber data management while gaining market share in Packet Core. It generates about EUR 2.5 billion in sales with 49% gross margins. In radio networks, we provide the radios, the baseband and the associated software as well as service that powers the networks behind every smartphone and connected device. On a trailing 12-month basis, this business generated about EUR 7.5 billion in sales with 36% gross margin. In technology standards, we manage one of the industry's strongest patent portfolios and most experienced and talented licensing teams. Our portfolio exceeds 26,000 patent families, and you'll hear a little more about this from Patrik in a few minutes. But as you look at it, not only does it have a massive patent base, it has incredible duration. 70% of these patents have more than 10 years of life remaining. And as we think about standards, it's easy to just focus on the IP licensing stream, but it's also important to recognize that it's an enabler for standardization. And as we invest in 6G standardization, this is a portfolio that will continue to grow and continue to extend its duration and value. Financially, this is a business that has an annual contracted run rate of EUR 1.4 billion and delivers an operating profit of EUR 1.1 billion. This is a foundation of durable profit and cash flow, not just for MI, but also for Nokia. As we think about the market, this is a market that we play in that's largely stable. And I think as many of you know that cover this industry, it's largely cyclical. Telco investments have been steady. They're not expanding. And as Raghav detailed out in his explanation about the customer base, in many returns for our customers, their returns are under pressure. But we have a unique position in this market. Today, Nokia is one of only 2 scaled Western vendors capable of delivering across the portfolio, across core software, across radio networks and with a robust standards portfolio. In North America, Europe, India and parts of Asia Pacific, we're positioned to capture incremental share as governments and telcos prioritize trusted vendors and seek innovation partners. At the same time, in markets that are open to both Western and Eastern suppliers, we're being disciplined. This is a shift. We're focused on winning share only with customers where innovation and value are recognized. And I want to be clear, we have some great customers in these markets, and we'll continue to invest and grow with them, but we're not going to chase volume for volume's sake. We need to be delivering an acceptable return on this business. And this is a clear balance. It's a balance between growth and profitability, and it reflects the discipline that we have with mobile infrastructure for managing it for sustainable returns. This is ultimately the foundation for reshaping MI for long-term value creation. Because when we look ahead, we see a very, very different market. And if you think about today's market, today's market is centered on what is largely consumer-based connectivity. And tomorrow's will be very different. Tomorrow's market will be defined by AI-enabled industrial and mission-critical applications that will come to depend even more on intelligent, secure and programmable networks. As the AI super cycle accelerates, networks are evolving. We're no longer just connecting people and information. We're now connecting intelligence. And as you think about this, if you look at what's happening today, today, almost every device is largely treated like a mobile phone. My phone is a phone, my watch is treated like a phone, my tablet is a phone, my connected vehicle is a phone, largely through pre and postpaid subscriptions and largely providing a consistent revenue stream for our operators. In the future, it's going to be very different. In the future, when we have machines, sensors and distributed systems connected, the shift will be around trust, security and performance. And that's really where we're headed because we recognize that the networks of the future and ultimately, our customers' success in the future won't depend just on delivering consistent revenue streams and dealing with homogenous devices. They're going to need to deal with heterogeneous services. That is a very different world. And that is where we are positioning Nokia to lead. We're going to be leading where we can differentiate, but ultimately by delivering the innovation that we anticipate is needed for the transformation of AI-native networks. And I think this really gets down to a different business model. And this is really critical because largely, when you think about the model, the model David talked about starting in 1G, I intercepted us in 2G, but the model really hasn't changed much. If you think about the model and the journey we've been on in this industry, our customers are largely monetizing their value through ARPU, pre and postpaid subscriptions. Our business is largely centered around hardware, a little bit of software and a heavy services content. That has been the business. But we still pack a lot of value into hardware today. Where we're headed is a very different world. In order to deliver in this AI-native 6G future, first of all, starting with our customers, the telcos, they're going to need to deliver different revenue streams. Revenue streams will not just be about subscription. They'll also be about tokens because different platforms, different physical AI devices will require different services. And as that happens, their networks will also need to evolve. What that means as a service provider is we're going to have to change how we innovate. And ultimately, that innovation can't depend on the pace of hardware upgrades. We need to be far more software-centric. This is a simple but critical fact in how the industry needs to evolve and where we see the opportunity for Nokia to lead it. Because in order to move more value to software, we have to commoditize hardware. Hardware needs to become simpler, and it cannot be the source of where all innovation resides. Rather, we need to leverage software and AI applications that can optimize and learn in real time and can be deployed at a far more dynamic pace. And if you think about this for us, this is a unique opportunity. This is an opportunity not only to innovate but to deliver a higher-quality business, one that's software-driven, one that delivers higher gross margins, allows us to deliver a faster pace of innovation and ultimately deliver an increased share of recurring revenue. This will take a bit of time because as we all know, this is not an industry that transitions overnight, but it's a direction the industry has to go, and we've already started to build it. And by the way, if you just think back, I'll go back to the story of the Internet super cycle. Think about the dot-com bubble before and after. In the late '90s, the kind of hardware in IT houses, specifically around compute, were vertically integrated stacks, Sun Microsystems, Digital Equipment Corporation. In fact, they were the early winners. You look at their revenue and growth profile. Then when you get into the 2000s, we moved into industry standard servers, general purpose silicon. We moved into areas like virtualization, optimizing the use of our hardware, so we could build more and more applications, leverage more of the hardware utilization. And over time, we moved into containers and micro services. That journey is played out over multiple different technologies. It's quite predictable. In fact, think about the storage industry as another analogy. It's an industry that went from appliances to virtualized software with a lot of purpose-built hardware -- general purpose-built hardware underneath it. This is the journey that we're on, and this is why we recognize and we've already started to build our platforms towards this. In fact, I have to give a lot of credit to the team in core software and ultimately to Raghav because under his leadership, we began this transformation 5 years ago in core. As you -- many of you know who have been in this industry, core used to be big iron. When David and I were talking about our time in the early days of the industry, switches, base station controllers, these were big iron systems. But Raghav and his team recognized we need to be -- we needed to shift, we needed to shift of being cloud native. And we moved from the appliance-based systems and platforms like network function, NFV or network function virtualization, to committing to fully cloud-native software. The reality as we stand here 5 years later is this transition is largely complete, and it's paying off. We actually radically simplified our Voice Core, and it became the #1 platform globally, as I said earlier. But not just that, we migrated our Packet Core to a true cloud-native architecture, and we've gained 4 points of market share. And you might look at it and say, gosh, Voice is a legacy application, where is the innovation? But we're seeing that already. And you heard a little bit of that from Pallavi and from Raghav in their talks, we're already seeing innovation in this area. We have demonstrations of immersive audio. Think of the experience you get today, sometimes if you're listening to -- you're watching a video at home, we can actually deliver immersive audio for a phone call, for a video call, leveraging some of this technology. Real-time translation, which if you're an American like me living in Finland, is probably the best solution to learning Finnish because Duolingo while I'm working on it is not helping me move fast enough. But real-time translation, another solution, the ability to identify and block robo calls. There's a whole bunch of services that will have value and tremendous duration for voice that we could not have innovated in if we weren't built in a cloud-native stack. Beyond that, Packet Core is really a step towards this AI-native future. And actually, we've leaned in. We've embraced multi-cloud openness, multi-vendor interoperability. I touched on the Red Hat example in my earlier comments. This is giving us deployment freedom and no supplier lock-in. And Raghav touched on some of the examples of where we're lined up with cloud providers. Effectively, what we're seeing is the industry shifting. Our customers are unifying IT and OT environments through this cloud-native stack. And when you look at our leadership, they were on the prior slide, the results are clear. We've won over 125 5G stand-alone contracts and over 25 Core as-a-Service customers running on Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft Azure. This business has grown well above the market rate, and operating margins have more than doubled since 2022. We're not stopping there. In fact, we see a future where the network fabric needs to become truly autonomous because delivering the services in the future cannot rely on human intervention. That means it needs to be powered by agentic AI and be exposed through open APIs that allow intent-based operations to be deployed at the speed of the devices needing them and new monetization models to emerge, giving operators the opportunity to participate in this value stream. And actually, if you look at the core market, what you see is largely a flat market in core networks, but in these areas of autonomous networks and APIs, growth. And one of the areas that we've been growing in is a place that we recognized early on, our API network as a Code platform. This was a place we invested with a principle around open source. Open source is a principle of the technology industry. We all know that open source enables more developers to get access to tools to build capabilities and create value in their networks. And we're seeing that already. We have more than 35 customers adopted globally. Ultimately, the other message here is differentiation matters more than scale. And it's very clear. Our differentiation is our software stack. Our stack gives us a competitive edge. It's zero touch, it's intent-based. It's critical to emphasize, it's not something we've built just in a lab. It's something we've co-created with our lead customers. It's AI native and it's 6G ready. It supports ecosystems beyond 3GPP. And this open programmability, the APIs I talked about earlier, allow telcos to expose and monetize network capabilities across industries. The architecture extends across the network from core to edge, providing a unified fabric for automation, observability and intelligence. And as we look ahead to what's coming, AI-native networks in 6G, we're accelerating our development, evolving this platform for agentic capabilities, extending it to the RAN and to the cloud so we can deliver the performance, security and reliability that intelligent tokens will demand from the device itself all the way back to the host. So let me turn and talk a little bit about radio networks. This is a place where we've had challenges. It's -- first of all, it's very clear that this is a business that has not delivered acceptable returns. It's ours. We own it. We know we need to fix it. And it starts with portfolio focus and ultimately, emphasizing technology differentiation. What I want to make sure I emphasize here is, we've actually made quite a bit of progress. Over the last 5 years, the team that's worked on this, led by Tommi Uitto, has made great progress. They're focused on core product competitiveness and as importantly, quality and stability. And when you look at our results, our latest baseband platforms deliver up to 90% lower energy consumption compared to the previous generation. Our Habrok Massive MIMO radios reduce power by 30% to 40%. And as critically, we've been investing in our RAN software stack. Again, we recognized that software and hardware need to become distinct in this future, and we've been investing heavily on our AnyRAN software. And the reality today is that our AnyRAN software can run both on our native hardware, AirScale and on cloud-native stacks that run on common (sic) [ commercial ] off-the-shelf servers called COTS servers called Cloud RAN. These are the servers you can buy from partners like Dell Technologies, who participated in our announcement a few weeks ago. We've also embedded machine learning across the portfolio. So we talk about AI a lot. In fact, this is something that we worked on for -- we've been working on for a number of years. And we started with machine learning because we had the technology in the purpose-built silicon, and we continue to invest in enabling that technology. And machine learning actually delivers some of those performance results that I talked about. For example, machine learning enables 10% higher downlink throughput, 30% higher cell utilization and 90% faster issue detection and repair, meaning that our customers' networks are more available for their customers. This was an early application of AI, as I mentioned, and Nokia was a leader. But we haven't stopped there. We talked a lot about open in core software. We've also been committed to a foundational principle of open interfaces in the radio network. And in fact, we've been a leader in what the industry calls Open RAN or O-RAN. Customers like NTT DOCOMO and Deutsche Telekom have recognized our leadership in open high-performance RAN. In fact, Deutsche Telekom recently commented publicly on the successful trials we've done with Fujitsu around an Open RAN solution in their networks. And ultimately, while open is performance -- open is important, performance is still what matters and still the key differentiator. We've deepened key partnerships in this space. We've extended our collaboration with T-Mobile U.S., which we announced earlier this year. We've added new wins such as the one I touched on at VodafoneThree in the U.K. And earlier this week, we just announced a deal with TIM in Italy to deliver their 5G network. In fact, when you look at 20 of the world's fastest 5G networks, Nokia is a RAN supplier for 15 of those 20. We have a strong and solid base to build from. And in that context, we're building on that base in a prudent manner that recognizes the reality of the market because while we see that the near-term forecast is flat, we do believe that the transition to AI-native 6G networks presents a tremendous long-term opportunity for growth. Why? Because if you just look at the market forecasts, they're showing a 14% CAGR over the next 10 years. Remember earlier, I said our own Nokia Bell Labs research had identified that, that traffic would probably grow at 20% a year. So we believe it's actually higher than this, but we recognize that even that will drive investment. And just think for a minute that for all of the work that's been done in 5G, we're only 35% penetrated in the market globally. That represents a significant opportunity even in this flat market. What this does is create structural tailwinds for investment, and it also underpins the focus of our road map, focusing not on being everywhere, but innovating where we can deliver differentiation, moving from 5G advanced to AI RAN to AI-native 6G. And that's the opportunity we're zeroed in on. And this is where it's critical to understand a little bit more about our partnership with NVIDIA because NVIDIA's capabilities are central to our shared vision of AI native 6G. And as we announced last month, we talked a lot about the partnership around bringing our AnyRan software to combine it with NVIDIA's accelerated computing stack. I just touched on earlier that we've been investing in the portability of the AnyRAN software. Those investments have positioned us to be able to deliver this capability. That's why if you attended GTC a few weeks ago when we made this announcement, you could actually see our AnyRAN software running on a Grace Hopper platform and why you hear that T-Mobile U.S. has already made a successful call using this stack. And what you may or may not understand about NVIDIA stack is that NVIDIA stack is completely portable. So once you build on top of the CUDA platform, I'm not just locked into a Grace Hopper platform, I can deploy that over any one of their GPUs, the L4S, to their graphics cards, even to jets and the robotics platform. This is really important because it means that all of the development we've done and everything we're continuing to do will port seamlessly to NVIDIA's Aerial RAN Computer Pro platform, or ARC-Pro that they announced a few weeks ago. And what's even as important is getting on to this platform means that you're not locked in and dependent merely on hardware upgrades for enhancements. Because for those of you that understand their stack, CUDA continues to unlock more performance. If you look at the performance, for example, of Grace Hopper or Grace Blackwell when they released versus what they're doing now in the field, they continue to improve. And this is just in traditional AI training or inferencing applications because the software continues to unlock value in the hardware. Well, that's going to be very similar for us in the RAN. The ability to unlock value through their software will be one way that we unlock value even after a customer has purchased the hardware. The second thing is we will continue to be able to build value on top. And Pallavi talked about this a little bit in her comments, but the ability for us to use models in this AI-native stack to continue to learn and improve on the software. What that fundamentally means is there's no longer this lock between the hardware that's running the baseband software and the software that runs on top of it. So I'm no longer dependent on making a hardware upgrade to get better features and better performance. This is a tremendous shift for our industry and one that we are excited to be leading. The last thing I'll say about this is there's a lot of talk, and I understand because of the history of AI at the edge, the potential for edge inferencing, mobile edge compute, there's been a lot of talk about how you monetize the GPU. That's not our focus with NVIDIA to start. We absolutely believe there's value in those applications. We've been co-innovating and co-developing with them and other ecosystem partners, exploring those, actually linking those back to our network as code platform that I touched on in core software as we bring this together. But the fundamental principle of this hardware platform is to make sure that the hardware card actually functions as a pure baseband processor. And we mean that in terms of performance per watt, which is essential for this -- for our customers because if the performance and the power efficiency isn't there, it doesn't matter how compelling the application is. So not just at a performance level, but a performance per watt level. And the other thing is around the ROI because we recognize the investment needs to be something that can be available to them on hardware. And this is the shift. And finally, the last part of the announcement we made that's incredibly significant is this ARC-Pro hardware won't just go into new devices. It will also be an upgrade option for our Nokia AirScale baseband platform. And the reason that's important for customers is many customers have told us the investments they have in AirScale, they would like to see through the AI-native transition and ultimately into early 6G. And what that means is that the 1 million units of AirScale that we have deployed globally now have an option to being AI-native platforms, which means that our existing customers can start deploying AI-native networks as soon as we move into production in '27. This is why we had T-Mobile join us in the announcement, and they continue to collaborate and innovate with us as the clear performance and innovation leader in the U.S. and why we've also had interest from SoftBank and from IOH in Indonesia because they recognize the potential and the power of this for their networks and ultimately for their customers. And ultimately, what this means for us is, we're moving away from a legacy hardware model to one that is built much more around software and building a software-driven business model. And what may not be apparent is that this also frees capital. This means we can invest -- we can shift investment into software and ultimately deliver differentiation and value where it matters. And this is the shift from proprietary hardware to general-purpose hardware. So in that context, we have a set of priorities for this business that are very clear. Number one, we want sharper commercial focus. This is -- we've been chasing business at times. Sometimes our service offerings have not necessarily yielded returns for our customers. We're going to be very disciplined around share capture. And ultimately, we're going to compete where we can innovate with our customers, deliver value to them that they recognize and capture value by enabling them to do more for their customers. We're also reallocating capital with discipline, allocating capital to building a different model, one that is much more software-driven in value capture, focusing on where we can generate higher returns and reducing exposure where returns aren't acceptable. In parallel to all of this and consistent what you heard from David and what you'll hear from Marco shortly is we're focused on driving better operating leverage. So as we grow in this business, we'll continue to get scale efficiencies. That means simplifying how we work, consolidating overlaps and embedding AI-enabled productivity across the portfolio. This, over time, means we'll have a more focused, more disciplined and more profitable portfolio with higher margins, stronger recurring revenue profile and sustainable returns. Now those of you that know and have been through recurring -- transitions to recurring revenue models, you know that it takes a bit of time to see those returns. And that's why you see the strategic KPIs as being very balanced here. We're being disciplined around gross margin. That's our North Star for value capture, and we're being disciplined around the base of operating profit. But obviously, many of you in here know how to do math. So if you take the EUR 1.1 billion that I talked about in IP licensing and you think about the EUR 2.5 billion at 15 points of operating margin, we have a pretty strong base to start from here. And the reason we have such a strong base is actually technology standards. And I think what gets lost a little bit in our technology standards business is how durable the revenue stream and the profit stream are because of the essential patents that we have. And as I said earlier, it's not just about the revenue and profit stream. It's about enabling interoperability. It's about enabling any device anywhere to connect to every network securely and efficiently. And this is actually really important because as you think about AI expanding and taking on greater significance, greater significance economically, greater significance geopolitically, this standard foundation becomes even more important. It enables innovation to scale globally. It reinforces Western technology leadership, Western technology leadership in connectivity, Western technology leadership in networks and ultimately, Western technology leadership in AI. So in closing, mobile infrastructure is a business we're transforming. It's built on unique and differentiated assets. We've positioned it for stability in the near term and ultimately, growth in the long term. We believe it has the potential to deliver solid returns today and outsized returns as the industry moves into the AI native and 6G era. So simply put, our focus right now is not to build a bigger business in the short term. It's to build a better, more valuable business for the long term. And with that, I'd like to have a little bit more time so you can understand with greater depth the value of technology standards and why we think it's such a unique asset. So I'd like to ask Patrik to come up and talk to you a little bit more about what we do in tech standards. Patrik?
Patrik Hammaren
executiveThank you, Justin. I've been with Nokia for 20 years and with the Nokia Technologies unit since it started operating. I can't remember when we would have been in a stronger position than we are today. I'm going to talk about our industry-leading activities and achievements in standards, patents and licensing. The work is crucial for Nokia's future technology leadership and also financial performance. I have 4 topics. First, the fact that our licensing business is based on Nokia's foundational technologies. Second, our smartphone renewals ensure predictable long-term cash flow for our investors. Third, we are diversifying our revenue pools with success in our expansion areas. And fourth, we're investing in our portfolio to future-proof our business. Nokia's patent licensing business is based on the virtuous cycle of IPR. We conduct groundbreaking research in solving the most complex technical problems with fundamental inventions. We then contribute these inventions to open standards so other companies can build on our inventions without making the original investments. The agreed compensation for the innovation are the patent royalties we received from our licensing activities of our standard essential patents. These royalties then fund our research of future key technologies, which we then again license, and so the cycle continues. Looking at our business, we have a strong execution and momentum in all of our licensing programs. In February last year, we completed our smartphone renewal cycle, locking in billions of euros in contracted revenue for years to come. This required closing 7 major smartphone deals in 13 months. Since completing the renewals, we have focused on the remaining addressable smartphone market. We signed an agreement with Transsion, the market leader in Africa at the end of last year and have signed additional deals this year. As a result, we now have virtually all of the global smartphone market licensed for our cellular technologies, something I believe no other patent licensor has at the moment. Turning to our expansion programs, automotive, consumer electronics, IoT devices and multimedia services. We are ahead of our peers in all of these programs. In automotive, we have 4G and 5G licenses with almost every Western car company. Many of these agreements were secured via the Avanci Automotive licensing pool, of which Nokia is a leading member. In addition, we signed the industry-first bilateral agreements with Chinese automakers last year. This year, we have made further progress and now have 4 Chinese automakers under license. In automotive, our Wi-Fi technologies are also relevant as these enable local connectivity inside the car. We now have bilateral license agreements with 7 major automakers covering the use of Wi-Fi technologies in their vehicles. The most recent was signed last week with Mercedes. In consumer electronics, we primarily license the use of our video and Wi-Fi technologies in devices such as tablets, laptops and connected TVs. This is also an important pillar of our broad expansion areas, and we have market-leading coverage here, too. Over the past year, we have signed agreements covering the use of our technologies in HPE's, Amazon's, Samsung's, Casio's and GoPro's products, just to name a few. We also have strong momentum in IoT devices. This is a fragmented market where we earlier simplified our go-to-market approach to vertical by vertical. This ensures we focus on one vertical before moving on to the next one. In IoT, point-of-sales payment terminals has been our first focus area. We have agreements with all major Western vendors. And last year, we signed an industry-first agreement with a Chinese point-of-sales vendor. Since then, we have signed agreements with 3 more Chinese vendors. Again, we're ahead of the rest of the market here. Going forward, we will increase our total addressable market in IoT through controlled expansion into new verticals. Multimedia services is, of course, also a meaningful opportunity. Nokia's inventors have contributed to the development of all market-adapted video codecs. Fast forwarding or rewinding a video by scrolling through it while simultaneously displaying the current scene is just one example of an invention by Nokia that many of us are likely using. Our work in this area has secured patents, but it's also recognized otherwise. For example, we just received our sixth Technology Engineering Emmy a few weeks ago. And again, we're leading our peers in unlocking the licensing market. We signed our first agreement with a streaming company in the summer of last year. And since then, we have signed 5 more deals. The most recent was signed last month with Starz, the U.S. pay-TV company. The successful smartphone renewals and the momentum we have established in our expansion areas means we are well positioned for near-term stability and longer-term growth. We have more than EUR 800 million of annual contracted recurring revenue locked in each year all the way through 2030. The current annual revenue run rate from our expansion areas is over EUR 200 million. And as you can see from the chart, there are further opportunities across all of the programs. Turning to our patent portfolio. Nokia's patent license business is, of course, based upon our industry-leading portfolio. The strong portfolio is why we have been able to renew most of our agreements without litigation. It is also why we have been able to sign industry-first agreements in automotive, IoT and in video streaming. We now have over 26,000 patent families in our portfolio, up from around 20,000 5 years ago and well over 7,000 families declared as essential to 5G. And when it comes to the longevity of the patents, as Justin said, we are in a strong position. The vast majority of the current portfolio has more than 10 years of life left. While we do follow quantity, we're, of course, obsessed with quality. One example of the strength of our patents are the multiple court rulings in our favor. Here, our patents have been found to be valid and infringed by independent courts. For each new generation of standardized technology, there is a time-bound golden window when the standard is defined. We're currently in the golden window for 6G, for Wi-Fi and for video compression codecs. We're making investments in all of these technologies and have updated our accounting for 6G patenting to better align the costs with the 6G revenues. We're also making strategic acquisitions to strengthen our portfolio in certain areas. As you know, we pay patent office annual fees for each of our patents. So when the size of our portfolio increases, these costs also rise. To offset this, we routinely trim patents that no longer generate value. We also take pride in operational excellence and automation to streamline our activities wherever possible to manage costs. So in summary, we have a strong record in maximizing value from patents and a strong foundation to continue to do so going forward. We currently have contracted recurring revenue of EUR 1.4 billion. Some agreements will, of course, come up for renewal over time, but we have over EUR 800 million of annual contracted recurring revenue until 2030, giving us predictable long-term cash flow. And with the world-leading team that Justin also referred to, we would expect to renew the agreements that are up for renewal between now and then. We also have strong momentum in our expansion areas, thanks to a series of industry-first agreements and with plenty of opportunities ahead. This strengthens our revenue mix. And to future-proof our business and further strengthen our industry-leading portfolio, we are investing in next-generation technologies, 6G, video codecs and Wi-Fi. I personally feel there has never been a better time to be part of our technology standards unit or to be part of Nokia. Thank you. With that, over to Marco.
Marco Wiren
executiveHello from my side as well, and it's good to see so many familiar faces here. I've been with the company the past 5 years, and I must say that I'm extremely excited to see where we are today. And what is extremely exciting is the opportunities that we see. And perhaps you wonder what's different now? Just giving you a few examples. First of all, clock speed is totally different. We have market opportunities. We're exposed to new segments and technologies as well. AI and cloud is a good example of this. We have much better product competitiveness today, and we are disciplined in investments with focus on growth and margin expansion. And we have been very clear now with what is core, what is noncore. And we are driving M&A and strategic partnerships to create value. And we are clear on operating leverage plans. Today, I will go through following areas in my presentation. I start with the long-term targets and our financial framework with KPIs. And then I will go to balance sheet position, capital discipline and capital allocation. And then I summarize in the end, how we are driving value throughout the strategy. We've set a clear direction for the business going forward to create long-term shareholder value. And there are 3 principles here. One is delivering profit expansion, position Nokia for long-term growth and maintaining disciplined approach to capital allocation. And today, we are introducing a new operating profit target to show our ambition over the next 3 years. So we now target operating profit of between EUR 2.7 billion and EUR 3.2 billion by 2028. And this increase from the EUR 2 billion we have had in the past 12 months. And this means a double-digit CAGR on the operating profit side. And to improve our financial performance and deliver sustainable returns for our shareholders, we will grow and drive operating leverage in network infrastructure, grow profit in mobile infrastructure and at the group level, drive efficiency and capital discipline. And we're also introducing a set of strategic KPIs that illustrate how we translate the strategic principles into financial focus areas. And let me now walk through each KPI and explain the underlying initiatives to reach our targets. As Justin explained this morning, our priority in NI is to accelerate our growth. And I don't think that any of you missed how excited David was about the opportunities in NI. The first strategic KPI in NI is 6% to 8% net sales growth through 2028. And we target to grow slightly faster than the addressable market in IP and optical, but we'll take a disciplined approach to fixed networks, focusing on higher-value segments. And with the actions we are taking, we expect to have higher growth opportunities beyond 2028, thanks to the better product mix. And the second strategic KPI for NI is improving its operating margin to 13% to 17%. And there are 4 main drivers that will support the operating margin expansion. The first is capturing the synergies from the Infinera acquisition, and you heard David also said that we are well on track, growing the higher-margin products and the disciplined approach on fixed networks business mix and the fourth operating leverage, which means that our OpEx growth is lower than the net sales growth. This margin expansion might be limited during the first half of 2026 as we will be ramping up new products. But over time, we are confident there is meaningful room to expand our profitability. Turning now to Mobile Networks. The focus in -- sorry, mobile infrastructure. Focus in MI will be increasing our value capture going forward. Our first KPI here is to increase our gross margin from the current 48% to 48% to 50% levels by 2028. And there are 3 elements that will support this. And the first one is that we will benefit from our cloud-native platform in core software and expect to have higher growth than the market with improving gross margins. The second, we will take disciplined actions and approach to radio networks, focus on profitability over top line growth. And we will continue to strengthen our technology position and differentiation to drive better gross margins. And the third one is that we see a stable profit contribution from our licensing business in the coming years, just like you heard from Patrik recently. And the second KPI is that we further expand our operating profit in MI from the base of EUR 1.5 billion, which we delivered over the past 12 months. And in addition to the levers that improve gross margin, we will have a disciplined mindset towards investments. And we will invest to accelerate our AI RAN competitiveness, but also focus on efficiency and maintain a similar OpEx base. And we are not providing an explicit guidance and target for the net sales as we, for example, make decisions for the future about the investments in AI RAN, and this could result in a more focused and more profitable player as we move from a hardware-centric to a more software-focused business in radio networks. And this will be a gradual transition with a largely stable market outlook, but we expect similar trend for the net sales in the coming years for MI. We are also taking steps to make our corporate center operations more efficient. We started at a cost level of EUR 370 million and reduced that now to about EUR 350 million. We will save about EUR 50 million in 2026. And by 2028, we target a corporate center cost about EUR 150 million. And to accelerate this, we are allocating about EUR 120 million of costs in the segments effective of January 1, as these are largely operating-related costs. However, I want to be clear here that we are tasking the segments to reduce the G&A expenses by this amount and deliver an additional EUR 30 million reduction at the Group Common by 2028. As you can see on this slide, we are now targeting EUR 1.2 billion in gross cost savings between 2023 and '26. And this is an increase from our earlier target of EUR 1 billion, reflecting our commitment to accelerate the efficiency and value creation across the group. The cost restructuring -- or the cost for the restructuring program is planned to be about EUR 1.2 billion, as we've said earlier, that usually the cost is at the same as the annual savings. And to date, we have already achieved about EUR 800 million in savings, demonstrating a strong momentum and discipline in our approach. And these savings are being delivered in part through a reduction of our workforce. And at the start of the program, we had 84,000 employees. And now we target to have -- or we target to reduce that by 14,000 in total, of which 9,000 have already been reduced by September this year. So the additional 5,000 headcount reduction, half of that already has been communicated. And just a note here that these data points exclude now Infinera and ASN divestment as these were unrelated to this program. And to improve the operating leverage is one of my absolute key focus areas. And now when I've taken over the IT organization, we can drive further efficiencies by AI implementations and process simplifications. We are also implementing a continuous improvement culture in the company throughout the whole group. And in summary, we are moving decisively to reshape our cost base, ensuring Nokia is leaner, more agile and better positioned to capture value. And we will continue to update on the progress on our cost savings programs. In recent years, we have seen some volatility in conversion of operating profit into cash, which has been mainly from 3 reasons. First of all, we had some significant project ramp-ups that consumed and then released working capital and the India ramp-up is a very good example here. And the second that we had supply disruptions, as you remember, in 2021, 2022. And then, of course, the third one is that we have some timing differences related to prepayments in our licensing business. Occasionally, we get questions from you guys and others about our use of some off-balance sheet items like sale of receivables. And I want to be very clear here now that within Nokia, we do operate with a very modest level of sale of receivables. Currently, the level is the lowest since we acquired Alcatel-Lucent. And it is mainly used to mitigate risks like FX risk, country risk and credit risks. Additionally, we aim to recover the cost from our customers, and we disclose also the net cost for Nokia in our annual report. And the impact to the balance sheet where the cost is not being covered by the customers is currently about EUR 0.5 billion, and we expect to keep that level considering the geographical mix that we have in our sales. Going forward, we expect to move to a more stable framework for cash generation in the business. And now we target free cash flow conversion from comparable operating profit in the range of 65% to 75%. But there can be some variations year-by-year due to the customer payment dynamics. In the next couple of years, we will have higher CapEx as we invest in additional fab capacity in optical, which we see as a significant value-creating asset for the company. And we are investing over EUR 100 million in the optical fab capacity, as David mentioned earlier in the presentation. And the main deltas that we have between operating profit and free cash flow are CapEx and tax items. And restructuring costs will fall after this program that we currently have. What comes to our balance sheet, we have a very strong balance sheet, and we had, by the end of quarter 3, about EUR 3 billion as a net cash. And I would say that there are 2 items that I want to bring up that will impact our net cash position. The first one is that, as you know, we have exercised the call option in our Chinese joint venture, Nokia Shanghai Bell and acquiring the remaining 50% of the shares. And we have estimated that value on the balance sheet to be around EUR 0.5 billion, and we expect the deal to conclude in the next quarters or so. And this will negatively impact our net cash position with the same amount. And why we're doing this, this deal will give us much better ability to simplify our operations and operational structure in this region. The second item is that we have now received the funds from the NVIDIA investments. Then going over to the portfolio businesses. And this was based on the detailed strategic review that we decided to move the number of businesses into new unit. And the review focused on our market positions, the margin profile of each of the units and the strategic fit. And these are good business just like Justin mentioned earlier, but then these are not deemed to be core to Nokia, and thus, we are not the right owner. Over the past 12 months, these businesses have had a net sales of about EUR 0.9 billion and an operating loss of EUR 0.1 billion. And now we are assessing the best path for each of these businesses and owners as well and expect that we will have a solution by the end of 2026. And when we complete this transition, it means that we will be much more focused on our core businesses. When it comes to our capital allocation priorities, those remain unchanged. So the first priority is organic investments in R&D and other investments where we can create value, just at that fab investment that I mentioned earlier. The second is that we remain open to acquisitions that could accelerate our strategy execution. And here, we are looking both minority investments like we did with Nscale and potential bolt-on acquisitions. But the main thing is that in all M&A, it is extremely important that we remain disciplined around the strategic fit and financial rationale. And all M&A activities must create clear shareholder value. Just like Infinera, we believe, is a good example of that. Third is dividend. So we target recurring, stable and over time growing dividend that takes into account the financial position and the business outlook. And finally, the fourth one is that if we deem that we have excess cash, we continue to consider share buybacks as an approach to return that cash to shareholders. Justin talked about these 5 strategic priorities earlier. And the strategic KPIs that I've talked through now are the financial outcomes that we expect from this and let me leave you with 3 key points here. The first one is that we are focused on delivering growth and operating leverage in network infrastructure. The second that we will focus on increase of value capture in our mobile infrastructure business, underpinned by our technology standards and core software while we transform the mobile networks. And the third one, we will continue to execute with discipline and actively manage our capital going forward. So ultimately, we believe this will all lead to a double-digit operating profit expansion for the business through 2028. So I hope you will join us on this journey. And now I will welcome David back on stage so we can start the Q&A.
David Mulholland
executiveThanks, Marco, and thank you to all of the previous presenters that we had. We will now move to the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] With that, let me welcome the presenters back on to the stage, and we'll get started. I think we'll take our first question from Simon.
Simon Leopold
analystSimon Leopold with Raymond James. I'll ask my 2 together. So we don't have to go back and forth. So the first one is, I think, a broad topic that really didn't get addressed today. And that's in the past, we've talked about these opportunities of Huawei swaps. There's been more recent news in Europe about potentially pushing out some of the high-risk vendors. So it wasn't addressed. I understand we want to be conservative, but I'd like to hear your thoughts about that particular opportunity, how you're thinking about it, how you'd size it. The next question, probably more oriented towards David Heard, is we've heard more about this newer architecture of scale across, which I think some people may confuse with data center interconnect, which has existed for many, many years. Could you discuss how you see these opportunities in scale across? And is this factored into the forecast? How do you size it? What are you thinking in that particular application?
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. So I'll take the first one. And David, I'll let you have some with scale across. So first of all, as you look at -- we put up a geo map, Simon, for a reason, which is we think the markets -- it's pretty clear if you look at the direction of travel that the markets are going to continue to bifurcate. There's going to be markets that only permit Western vendors, markets that strongly prefer Eastern vendors and markets that have a clear strategy around having both. And if you look at Europe, I mean, right now, core networks is largely executed. Europe has already implemented the 5G toolbox for core networks. Look, we're optimistic that the commission is making progress on this. But the reality is, for those of you who know the history in the industry, is this has been talked about for a long time and very little has been implemented. If you think about the TAM without giving you a hard number, if you were to look at the opportunity today, you just -- you take -- I think you take something around the EUR 2 billion to EUR 2.5 billion of opportunity right now, if there was a radical -- if there was a more aggressive replacement, an accelerated replacement in the market just based on Huawei's share and the size of the market. So that's a little bit how we think about it. The key thing for me is it's really easy for us to execute on the capacity if the demand comes in, but I'm not going to run the business expecting it to happen. Now do we talk about it with the European Commission and governments? Of course, and our advice to them also is, look, this is something you need -- if you commit to, you got to actually go fund the -- you got to go fund. And so when we have this conversation, if you're going to go enforce the EU toolbox, it's got to come with capital because if I think about it from a customer's perspective, there's no justification to upgrade a network in terms of their investor base without some kind of capital return. So unless that capital is offset, why would I have an incentive to replace it. So that's how we think about it. We think it's -- obviously, we believe it's important. I also think it's important more broadly, which is just the principle of -- this is Europe. The 2 major players are European companies. It's kind of incredible that from a balance of trade perspective, Europe is allowing this dynamic to persist. I think the U.S., the U.K., India have all shown a very clear direction. And by the way, the U.S., the U.K. and India are all showing investment in networks and performance in networks because ultimately, a race to the bottom is not a value-creating experience for anybody. It's not better. I know people get excited because maybe the ARPU to the customers is lower, but that's not better for operators. It doesn't -- you don't get better service in those markets when you look at it as a customer. Those are the places that aren't as deployed for 5G. And if you think about the economic impact of what's coming, you're not going to be able to invest to get the kind of innovation and development and ultimately, economic development and GDP growth per capita that you'll get if you invest in connectivity as a core asset. So I think there's a lot of opportunity. I'm optimistic, but I'm also pragmatic. And when we see that opportunity, we'll be very aggressive about pursuing it, but we're not going to run the business anticipating something that we're not in direct control of today. And then, David, scale up, scale out, scale across. That's something that used to be close to my heart, but I'll let you talk about it.
David Heard
executiveGo ahead. Simon, so yes, certainly, metro DCI, over 50% of the investments are still going on in that front end data center today. So that business and by the way, when I look kind of at the early success we had in hyperscale, that was it. It was DCI interconnect at again, those high data rates, carrying all that traffic. So that will continue. What we see growing at, let's say, that exponential rate is, again, the scale across just the sheer magnitude, as I mentioned, of the port, both the overall switch capacity required and then the port densities that people are looking to go connect. That is a sweet spot for us. That, again, by landing and expanding, I'm seeing a, call it, larger average deal size than what we saw in the DCI interconnect. And again, just not to bore you with speeds and feeds. But again, in the case we gave with the 18e, you're talking about full chassis, full 7-foot racks, with 0.5 petabit and again, 576 ports that require thermally efficient 800-gig pluggables traversing. That market has a long way to go. I mean, it's early innings, so feel great about that. And then as I mentioned, when you look at Broadcom's release plan for Tomahawk 6 and when you look inside the data center, port density is right, the switching has not yet moved to 1.6 yet. So there's still a lot of 800 gig to go as well as that move to 1.6 first in the data center followed down below in the back end. So I know I probably didn't give you the SAM split up that you would like. But what I would tell you is that deal size is a multiple of the average DCI deal size. And I would say the thing to add that I'm not going to say excited because all you guys keep saying I'm excited. So what I will say is what I am feeling good about is, look, we get the switch and the pluggable, like we have both. We have the solution to be able to do that. And you can do some unique things, like we are very open. Everything we do is open. But when we do, do it together, there's some power management things we can do like in the wide area network, we're doing that where you can take power down 19% or 21% on a per application basis. That's a big deal.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. And maybe what I'm excited about since I must have stolen your coffee at the break, what I'm excited about in this is look at the pace of innovation, right? I think that's -- for me, the thing that's compelling about scale across is, okay, AI factories, we've got a power constraint. How are we going to solve that? We're now going to interconnect data centers, right? And this is the pace at which this has changed because we were talking about 10, 15, 50-kilowatt racks, like those were a big thing. Now we're at 400 and even more, and now we're talking about the footprint being constrained, so we're solving AI factories. And I think both Pallavi talked about this from a technology perspective, David has done a great job of breaking it out in terms of a business opportunity for us. But that pace of innovation, that's what's coming. And that's also -- when you think about the broader opportunity for us, that's why the agility, the clock speed, the shift in the company. And I know you guys would love for us to probably lean in a little more on the opportunity, but I'm much more focused on how we're acting internally. And that's why what I see from the team in terms of responsiveness, coming out from very far behind to catching up on 800 gig to launching the shipping. I mean that's the kind of pace that we're moving at to being in a position to deliver 1.6 to meet the market. I think that's the change in clock speed that we're all talking about and why we are excited about the opportunity, even if we're measured on what we're showing.
David Heard
executiveYes. One thing -- I'll add a third question for you to ask me and then I'll answer it for you. No, the other impact that has just on optical systems that I didn't cover in my rapid talk is that we can connect these things, again, direct -- via direct pluggable -- direct coherent pluggable into these big switches or we are still seeing, right, the traditional optical systems growth happening. Like we're not fighting a religious war here, we're on both sides. But to give you just a little bit of an insight into what's happening, these line systems used to be, right, single fiber pair, right, single rail. You're seeing now because of the power requirements, and if you look out in the huts where you're amplifying in the wide area network, you're seeing demands for things that are multi-rail line systems where you're now looking to put 128 pairs, 160 pairs, and Pallavi covered this. Traditionally in a hut, you're talking about 3-kilowatt. You can't go out in some of these locations and add more power, right? So that's all, again, nice opportunity in optical systems, switching and in this pluggable demand. Sorry to ask your third question, sorry.
David Mulholland
executiveWe'll take our next question from Terence.
Justin Hotard
executiveReally an advantage to sitting in the front of the room.
David Heard
executiveThose lights are interrogating.
Terence Tsui
analystIt's Terence Tsui here from Morgan Stanley. Just another question on optical and IP and exploring that the target that you have for revenue growth of 10% to 12%, which you're clearly very excited about. However, your largest peer is talking about 17% growth. So I just wondered if you can do a bit of compare and contrast and talk about the known parts of the market where you think you could be like better represented.
Justin Hotard
executiveYou got it.
David Heard
executiveYes. Yes, you see I twitched when you did that. Yes. No, I mean I would -- from a day where 10% to 12% was pretty good at these things. But yes, look, I think we had a later start as a company into the hyperscale space. As I said, the EUR 1.5 billion, not dollars, of orders that we brought in, in terms of the total spend, it's a great start, but that isn't where we need the destination to be. So when you compare me with maybe that particular competitor that you're talking about, a couple of things to note. They do have a larger exposure into the hyperscalers, number one. Number two, they were earlier, although not vertically integrated, into the pluggable space, including 400 gig. We're really intersecting at 800 gig. Number three, when you look at where a lot of their business comes from, it's where either Infinera nor Nokia had any real big presence in optical. The major carriers here in the United States in terms of, you can think of their names, right? That was a very large when you look at a percent of the revenue. Now the beautiful thing about what's happening in the network, again, I'm talking my ear off, is these are insertion points where we're focused right now. And so as we get those wins, when I looked at that carrier space growing to 1 to 2, if you're not in those large carriers, it's very, very hard to, again, grow ahead of that. That's all green space for us. That is not a space we've been in, and we intend to get there. Did that answer your question?
David Mulholland
executiveWe'll go to Felix.
Felix Henriksson
analystFelix Henriksson, Nordea. Another NI question from me as well. So you presented the 6% to 8% revenue growth target today. To me, it doesn't sound like it sort of factors in much tailwinds from items such as AI inferencing and fixed, the optical components business or the NVIDIA partnership. Is that a fair assessment? And what do you consider as the biggest upside risks to your targets?
David Heard
executiveYes is the answer to the first piece. Look, I think in the rest of the business, again, I think Justin mentioned it, for us, it's execution. The opportunity is there. We have the critical platforms. We've gotten through typically acquisitions, no matter how much somebody paints them. We're hitting the objective, but it's not easy. That's hard work, right? So we've got the focus and the road maps to go intersect. So to me, the #1 risk is execution.
Justin Hotard
executiveI think the other thing too, and just to call it for what it is, because obviously, if you do the math, we're pretty conservative on fixed networks. I think we're very optimistic on the business. The reality of what we inherited, I'll use David and I inherited in that was a portfolio that was focused on chasing what I would say is low calorie revenue. And that's why we made the decision we did in fixed wireless access CPE. Again, it's a good business, but it doesn't fit our profile. It's not a place where we can differentiate, we can add value. And we're going to be more measured on that side of the business. And to be frank, I think the business hasn't consistently focused on where it's differentiated. And you look at a couple of customers. I mean, certainly, we talked about AT&T today. In earnings last quarter, I talked about Frontier, 2 U.S. customers where our technology on the OLT and the systems and the associated service side, where when we deploy, we're delivering tremendous value. But I think that for us is getting the business refocused. And so you've got a little bit of that capacity that we're building into the profile. And that's the math, I think that you're probably trying to -- you're seeing a little disconnected.
David Heard
executiveYes. I would also add that in the past, I think that business was held to a bottom line operating income very strictly where optical didn't have the scale and wasn't contributing. So there was a little bit of taking from pockets with different areas taking a different tilt to innovation. Across the 3 businesses, we're investing. As Justin mentioned, the -- whether it's AT&T moving from 30 million subscribers to 60 million, that's pretty profound. On top of that, Japan is going through the entire -- if you look at what's happening standards wise, there's a move from EPON to XGS-PON, where we're the leader. So there are pockets. But again, as Justin said, we're focusing that business on growth and on margin expansion and on preparing for the inferencing. And to your point, I think it just would be way too early to put anything down that says, okay, here, it's the financial metrics. I think we have enough to deliver in front of us and execution is the key.
David Mulholland
executiveSandeep?
Sandeep Deshpande
analystSandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan. Two questions, if I may. Firstly, on the mobile infrastructure business. I mean, you've talked about this transition to a software-based architecture going forward. But I mean in terms of the customer base, you've talked about 15 of the 20, I think, global telcos you are in, 2 of the biggest U.S. telcos you're not in. I mean is that going to change over the next 3 years? Clearly, not in the 3-year horizon you've given on the estimates, but is that a target? Or is that not a target because that could change the operating margin of the business very substantially if you were able to get into one of those big telcos as such? And then secondly, back again to network infrastructure. In switching, I mean, Nokia has been behind the curve, but now gaining share. So what is it that is making Nokia gaining share in that business? I mean, there have been existing players in that market, is it your software? Is it your silicon? Is it something else? So maybe I'm trying to understand what is it going to make Nokia going to be a bigger player in that market? Clearly, optical, you're already there, but in switching, that is the question.
Justin Hotard
executiveOkay. So on the first one on win backs. Look, I mean, obviously, if we had news to announce, we would announce it. I think right now, our focus is on building the best portfolio that we believe is going to enable differentiation for the customers that value it. And look, they're important customers for us. By the way, if you think about those 2 telcos where we don't have presence in the radio networks today, we've got presence across most of the rest of the portfolio. So they're important customers for us. But right now, our focus is delivering for the customers that are partnering with us innovating, and you see that, obviously, with the announcement on AI-RAN and making sure we're pivoting the business for the future. And I think there's tremendous opportunity for us ahead. And I think Simon touched on one, obviously, with his question earlier in Europe. I think there's the potential with high-risk vendors for growth vector. Obviously, this is another place where there's potential. What I can just say is from a -- if you think about hardware, the capacity constraints to be able to deliver hardware manufacturing, obviously, software resources to be able to go deliver capabilities. Those are areas where I feel really good when -- if and when the opportunities arise, that we'll be ready to support those for customers. But again, we can't run the business expecting those to happen. And that's the way I would think about it. And then look, on IP networking, I think the first answer to your question is David happened, but I'll let David explain what he's doing about IP switching.
David Heard
executiveSo again, I don't want to get into religious war on this, but routing is really, really difficult. And I'm not saying switching is easy. But I think the first instance is if you think about hyperscalers and their first applications and workloads is the workloads are now becoming way bigger and way more complicated. And the networks they operate are now becoming way bigger and way more complicated. And they have never -- they need diversity in their supplier base. And so I think, one, we were not there early enough, like listening, co-collaborating. This is not do a binder of a spec and then go, as Raghav alluded to in the presentation, things have changed. This has put a bunch of engineers in a room and start working heavy, heavy on both network workload all the way down to the switch. So I think there was an absolute need first for the rock solid software I mentioned. And because we were able to pivot SR OS into SR Linux with some heavy listening, that rock-solid nature, people can take -- and the team that does that is just awesome. And so you can take our -- an alpha version of our software, and we found our customers like, holy hell, this is like we can't take an alpha version of our competitor software. So I think the bar is raising in terms of complexity and reliability on the software side. And obviously, on the hardware side, they need rock-solid hardware. We have a history, not just of doing our own FP and FPcx chipsets. But on the edge of the network where you're using some of Broadcom's open chipsets and some others in the industry, we know how to integrate that, and that's what's given us the opportunity. And I mentioned to you that 18e, when you're talking about 0.5 petabit, there's not many people that can do that. And in the speed we did it is probably the thing I'm proudest of.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. I mean, I think when I -- just to add to that, when I first came into the company, it's very apparent to me, this just wasn't a focus. I mean -- and by the way, it's hard to criticize, Nokia. If you look at the 3 players that were delivering telco class routing and 2 of the players that were doing enterprise networking, they largely missed the transition to cloud, right? That's why there's -- Arista has been so wildly successful. Nokia was one of those, just being very blunt about it, and it wasn't considered a strategic priority. And I think what we've reprioritized now is SR Linux as a critical OS, that's a differentiator, as David said, the discipline of being time to market with Broadcom silicon, which is very important for the industry, and we know that. And so it's just getting focused on this is, hey, this is a market where the left edge of technology is getting developed. And then by the way, that doesn't mean we're not going to focus on telcos. We're very focused on that core customer base, as David highlighted, but you have to recognize the market transition. And the reality in switching is that started in cloud, and we missed that, and now we're getting back at it. And we think because of the pace of change in AI factories and what's happening within the data center, there's opportunities for us. And that's being reinforced by customers. But there's still -- there's a lot of strong competitors. There's a lot of incumbency. And that's also why, again, we're being measured about the progress that we're making.
David Heard
executiveYes, I'd say, if you look like maybe even as soon as 5 or 6 years ago, if you missed a cycle with a telco or a mission-critical, you were out, you were in the penalty box for 6 years. The great thing about the hyperscalers, cloud majors and these folks building these AI factories is price performance, cost per bit, power per bit, reliability, look, there's insertion points all the time.
Pallavi Mahajan
executiveAnd I'll also add automation because especially in our switching portfolio, David was talking about SR Linux. What comes on top of it is our EDA tooling. Now especially when you're looking at switching. These are your leaf-spine switches, configurations can actually become very complex. So with the EDA tooling that we bring in, we're getting very positive feedback from customers.
David Mulholland
executiveWe'll take our next question from Sami.
Sami Sarkamies
analystSami Sarkamies, Danske Bank Markets. I have 2-part question related to recent NVIDIA Corporation. First part goes to David, who was excited about the number of things but didn't really mention NVIDIA in the presentation. How do you see the opportunity for network infrastructure? Are you able to size that opportunity together with NVIDIA? And then second part to Justin. If we think about the implications to mobile networks, which will be included in the mobile infrastructure, how do you see the financial impact from NVIDIA Corporation? If you think about '26, '28 time frame, you probably need to hike investments, but we'll not yet see much revenues from those new products.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes, you want to take a minute. I mean, I think we've said most of what we're going to say on NI, but I don't know if you want to -- there's something else...
David Heard
executiveYes, you just -- I mean, thank you. You've covered a weak point in my presentation. Hats off. I didn't mention NVIDIA, I didn't mention Nscale. I didn't mention Supermicro. They were 3 things I should have mentioned, just only so much time and my mouth gets running and my brain doesn't catch up. So partnering is key to what we do going forward. I think all of those are wonderful partnering opportunities. I see that impacting our road map in optical and IP going further and actually potentially even in FM. But it's too early to unpack that. I will say I'm excited about the opportunities those provide but would be reckless to put anything out there in the near term.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. And then to your question on AI-RAN. I think we've been pretty clear on the revenue forecast, proof of concepts in '26, early deployments in '27, broad commercial deployment in '28. One of the -- one thing that maybe wasn't obvious in the presentation today is we're going to reallocate capital. And that means stopping doing certain things and investing in places where we see value. So I think as you think about radio networks, because remember, mobile networks is a slightly different portfolio. It included microwave. In radio networks, we see opportunities to reallocate capital. And one of those things that we're investing in is AI-RAN because we see it very strategic. Also, we're not starting from 0. We've actually done a ton of the work to cloudify the anyRAN stack to do the initial trials with NVIDIA to validate this technology worked well before the announcement. So the development work for us is incremental, and we'll trade that off against lower priority opportunities. And the reality, again, in this business is when you look at the business, there's a lot of product investment that hasn't generated return. Ultimately, if you guys do the math on the return on investment in what was previously mobile networks and even if you can click into radio networks, what you'll see is the business hasn't generated its cost of capital. So we're going to be very disciplined about making investments that we believe can generate excess returns. This is one of those things. And by the way, it turns out when you look at our biggest customers and the customers that we support and serve and those customers we don't have that we see as incremental opportunities, they largely give us the feedback and the road map on where we want to invest. Core, I think we did a better job of -- over the last few years of being able to deliver against those requests and the results speak for themselves. The reality in radio networks is we're executing that pivot aggressively now, and we have been for the last couple of quarters. But it's going to take a little bit of time to show up in its results. And I think for the prior question on the U.S. operators, you don't just flip a switch overnight. It takes time to deploy into these networks and grow. But we -- I just -- I fundamentally believe where the market is headed. If you listen to Pallavi, we talk about this a lot. The things that are happening in the market, the devices that are being deployed, robotics, autonomous vehicles. I mean, I'll get back to this. I use this simple example for folks. Living in Helsinki, you've got -- we've got delivery robots today. You've got -- we're going to have autonomous vehicles because Finland is both connected and advanced. Autonomous vehicles, AR/VR glasses, all these things are coming. What you're going to need is a performant network because the reality is while these devices are intelligent and autonomous, they can't be disconnected. There hasn't been a point where we've gone through technology where we determine we need less bandwidth and less connectivity. And then when you think about these devices, why in the world would you allow them to run on an untrusted network, untrusted radios, untrusted core networks, untrusted transport, simply not going to happen for many markets. And then the third thing is when you have all of that, you need a network that performs because those devices can't be sitting there waiting for an extraction as Pallavi articulated in her presentation. So that change will happen. And I think we're in a position here much like we were in core 5 years ago to be a leader and drive a model shift and an innovation shift in the industry.
David Mulholland
executiveWell, I'll shake things up and go to the back. We'll go to Rob.
Robert Sanders
analystYes. Just a quick question for David on the indium phosphide fab. I think when you announced the Infinera deal, that fab was quite lowly loaded, maybe only 35% loaded. But now you've announced a major expansion quite recently. Could you just talk about how fast that ramp is looking and how the utilization sits today? And the second question would just be around for both sides of the business, just around potential supply constraints, whether it's memory or passives or there seems to be quite emerging tightness in a lot of key component areas. I'd love to get some clarity on that.
David Heard
executiveYes. So I'll do a job of bridging the last question. So the one thing I didn't mention is when I was at Infinera, well, we've done some things with players like NVIDIA. The power of Nokia opened up a major partner door, which when you get inside that door and look at some of the quantities and the need, it makes me feel good about filling the utilization of the fab. So the great news is 2.5 years, we started that fab. It will qualify at the end of this year, and we'll be actually producing. We already have one existing fab that, let's just say the utilization is going up. And I will just tell you that this components business, it was in green in my presentation, and I said don't put it in any number because it's way too early. I believe it was 283%, some crazy growth number. Look, the core capabilities in that fab and building high-power lasers, building arrays for co-packaged optics. That's where we came from. We invented the photonically integrated circuit. Our first PIC of like real, like the ICE-3 PIC was a -- if you think about it, it was a 12 by 100 arrayed solution. Well, if you think about what's taking power down, it's moving electrical lanes into an optical array. So while the religious wars in the optical of what you hear will go, well, co-packaged optics or linear pluggable optics or you know what, we don't -- we've got both, and it's all off that same fab. So that will qualify. We've also -- again, when I said 25x capacity, it's 25x capacity. Some of those applications that we're talking about have much better yields. So I expect even a better view of that. But it's way too early. I'm encouraged by now the doors open at places like NVIDIA. And again, we're not going to probably report our fab utilization. Marco, doesn't want me to do that, nor would I.
Justin Hotard
executiveNo. I mean, I think the one thing to say is just in that, and I'll let you comment is we're going to be prudent on capital allocation. If we're investing in fab capacity, it's because we see demand.
Marco Wiren
executiveAbsolutely. No, absolutely. So extremely disciplined on securing that we get the returns. And in this field and this fab, we are very confident that this is a good investment. And also that it's a North American, it's U.S.-based fab, which is extremely big deal here now.
David Mulholland
executiveI'll take our next question from Artem.
Artem Beletski
analystArtem Beletski from SEB. I would like to ask on your #1 strategic priority, which is really to accelerate growth when it comes to AI and cloud. So this business represented 6% of revenues in Q3, where it could be by, let's say, 2028. You're talking about addressable market growth of 18%. David spoke about quite nice growth in terms of orders. Could you maybe comment on this topic?
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. As we said, Q3, 14% of NI, 6% of group. I think NI is probably the better metric because the reality is that's where the exposure is. If you do the math on them, kind of what we shared, we think that -- we think it could double, we think the business could be -- we think the non-telco business could be up to 40% of our overall NI mix. That includes mission-critical, but that's just at the rate that we're seeing the growth. I mean, obviously, if we see the market accelerate faster, we execute better than what we're assuming, obviously, that penetration becomes higher. I think our planning assumptions when you look at it are the telco is quite predictable in this period, right? So we've got -- that's largely fixed. So the real variable here is how much. And periodically, we'll give you an update on this number on the mix in NI to have a sense of how we're doing. So we'll do our best to give you a view of where we are. And I think the other piece here, and David, unpacked a lot of this detail in the presentation is the business model is evolving, right? If you think about -- and he touched on this in his talk that we started in systems. We're now going to pluggables. You just touched on the fact that we could be in components if there's an opportunity and an opportunity as we go into a linear packaged or co-packaged optics. So the business model will change. The discipline for us is making sure that in each of those cases, we're generating -- we're delivering differentiation, we're generating a return. And for me, that's the other thing that we're really looking at internally with Marco and David is making sure we're lined up to capture those opportunities. We're giving ourselves the flexibility to make sure we have the right business model because the miss here would be to be too attached to pluggables if components are an opportunity or too attached to systems if pluggables are an opportunity, right? We need to follow the market, leveraging the unique technology we have, and that's what we'll continue to do. And like I said, we'll update you as we make progress.
David Mulholland
executiveWe'll take the next question from -- I can't -- Paulo, you can pick someone from down there. Maybe Andrew, I can't quite make out faces with the lights.
Grant Lenehan
analystThe mystery asker is Grant Lenehan, Appledore Research. For everyone's knowledge, I'm the square peg in this round hole. I'm an industry analyst, not a financial analyst. And I want to start with what's been going on in the industry. If you look at the telecom service providers and you look at how their spend every year is broken up, actual network capital is about 12% to 17% of the total. And the rest is operations. It's people, it's controllable expense. We also see service complexity rising, volumes going up, technological complexity, configuration complexity rising and you've made a real argument that you want to bring together businesses to provide differentiated capabilities and better technology. Yes, what I didn't hear much about, though kudos to David for talking about Altiplano and NSP and all of those things and your talk about AI in the RAN. But didn't talk about how you were going to bring all of the software together to address that other 85% of the money and help your customers transform their business to make you successful. And I may be a bit of a software nerd, but I'm dying to hear about that either now or another time.
Justin Hotard
executiveWell, maybe what we'll do is let Raghav and Pallavi talk a little bit about that. That was really what we touched on in the core networks space in the MI overview. But Raghav, maybe you can talk a little bit about what you're seeing and then really what we've been doing in this space because this is a problem we recognize. And then Pallavi, maybe you can add.
Raghav Sahgal
executiveYes. I think one -- when you go and speak to the customers themselves, I mean, you think about the things they talk about these days. These networks are getting extremely complex. And you just can't run them just by humans by themselves. You have 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G. These networks have become extremely complex from that perspective. And automation is one of the key things that the customers are now asking for. And automation is a very big word. So you -- and there's industry definitions of that by the TM Forum that you go from the L2 plus that the industry is at to L4 and then eventually into L5. So this is going to be a journey, but this is very clearly front and center of every customer in the telecommunications company that they're looking for. And this is where we are building the autonomous network fabric that will really allow the journey from where they are today that as you get into 6G, you're going to have these autonomous networks that are self-healing, self-provisioning, self-managed networks with a little bit of human augmentation of critical activities. So this is a very key area of our investment cycle in terms of what we're investing in, and this is a very key requirement. The other area that's very, very specifically that they're looking for is making sure that the networks are secure because as you disaggregate getting into cloud-native capabilities, this disaggregation allows a great amount of automation, but it also opens up the fabric where you can have many more cyber attacks. So in this whole autonomous network piece, security is a very, very key part of how to make sure that you drive that into the fabric itself and into the architecture as you go forward. And that's another area we continue to invest heavily in. And in this particular area, we're also bringing the generative AI capabilities to be able to make sure that we can act as a copilot when these security incidents actually happen. So this is very, very key, and I think you raised a great point. I think Justin covered it a little bit on the autonomous piece as well as Pallavi, but I'll let her add more comments to it.
Pallavi Mahajan
executiveYes. I think 2 vectors to look at this. I mean, Raghav, you covered everything from an automation point of view. But when we are looking at autonomous networks, we are looking into not just how customers are managing their networks but right from the time when they start planning their networks, how do we go about and enable them to optimize the planning process, how do they go about and design, how do they go about and deploy, then when they have actually gone about and deployed the day-to-day. So I like to call it as a day minus 1, day 0, day 1 and then the day n. So those elements are what we will actually -- you're very focused on looking into how we bring in the autonomous network layer. The second point that I'll say is every customer, every operator is in a very different stage of automation. This is what Raghav was talking about, the TM Forum having definition of L2, L3, L4. And the way we are building up this automation is through APIs. So depending on which stage the customer is in their journey of automation, they can plug in into what we are providing.
Justin Hotard
executiveMaybe 1 last comment I'll make on this, and then we -- just to move on, so we leave time for a couple more. The last comment I'll make on this is in MI. The -- if you think about that business, core and radio, we were investing in these things in parallel. And we brought them together, Raghav led some of the -- or led this effort with a couple of key customers to start bringing them together because we recognize and our customers recognize that we can't just build an autonomous layer for one part of the network. It needs to be across the entire network. Now I think that will extend into fixed because obviously, as you think about transport and backhaul, there's opportunities. But we see that linkage, and we're going to be very customer-driven in this space because the risk here is we start building capabilities that our customers don't want. And so the key thing here is building it with a fabric and a platform, as Raghav touched on, thinking end-to-end from the device to the -- obviously, to the network edge, which we -- the access network edge, which we manage and then all the way back through to the host. And that view for us is really where we're taking this. Particularly in MI, it means bringing these resources together. That's already really started ahead of the announcement because it's just logical. You can't deliver a network slice or intent-based networking in the core if it doesn't actually go and deploy to the radio. And ultimately, you need to be -- some of the things, Pallavi, was talking about with dynamic traffic patterns, you need to be reallocating the RF in the area to make sure that you have the bandwidth available to deliver the experience or if it's an encrypted service, making sure that's following as the device is moving. So there's a lot more complexity here. The last thing I'll say here is this is fundamentally a multi-vendor environment. We recognize that the work we're doing in this space is multi-vendor. That's why APIs are important. It's also why extensibility matters because you can't assume that I'm going to have one technology provider in 100% of the network, you need to design for diversity.
Timothy Savageaux
analystIt's Tim Savageaux at Northland. Since you guys reported, which seems like a long time ago, given all that's happened, we've seen a lot of indications across especially the supply chain and optical of a pretty dramatic uptick in demand, kind of a step function in real time, a lot inside the data center, but also a lot outside. David, given your comments on the order strength, I wonder if you can provide any color on how that's continuing into Q4 or a general sense of the momentum you may be seeing there? I have a follow up.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes, I just -- you want to talk about orders or supply chain? Orders...
Timothy Savageaux
analystOrders.
Justin Hotard
executiveOkay. You can talk about orders...
David Heard
executiveYes. So obviously, I don't want to provide any update to any guidance, and we don't guide orders. But let me refer back to something I said, Tim, and I know you know this, in terms of -- in the traditional days, if you're shipping subsea, maybe it's 10,000 transponders a year, right? I think what's being realized now is as you're getting into these AI giga factories and you look at kind of Metcalfe's Law, the number of just ports you have to connect. When I talk about moving from 10,000 in subsea to 5 million in a GPU ecosystem interconnecting GPUs, people are getting nervous. They're looking for high-power lasers down the road map for CPO. So what I would tell you is people are looking to secure design partners for the future. Now what I love about that is it's not a binder and an RFP process and then I wait because we can kind of see things coming as we get design wins, then we can start to say, great, here's the business in front of you. But yes, look, I've seen pieces written, I heard things from clients that say we're worried about the tightness in the optical component market around the ability to get enough lasers to be able to make what's going to be required in this next cycle of build.
Timothy Savageaux
analystAnd just to follow up briefly. On the MI side, it looks like the plan or the aspiration is to grow from EUR 1.5 billion, but the guidance seems kind of flat. And that's one of several areas that seem conservative, whether it's service provider down in network infrastructure, fixed down, and I know you're being more selective there. But am I looking at that right? And to what extent are we looking at a baseline outlook here versus an aspirational outlook? And that's it for me.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. Look, I think clearly, we've got to focus on where we see opportunities in the market. You're making a lot of changes. If you think about the changes from the time that I came in, this is a pretty dramatic shift for the company. The other thing we have to acknowledge is historically, this is not a company that has delivered predictable results. And a lot of one-offs in earnings, good and bad and a lot of inconsistency. And while I'm pleased with the start of the operational rigor and the forward visibility that we're seeing, and I'm pleased with where we're going, I think we have a much better handle on the business as a team than we did when I started. I also recognize that we're a couple of quarters into this journey and these things don't change overnight. So I think we're being prudent in the guidance based on what we see. David tempered -- he talked to you about why we've tempered the growth forecast because we're starting with such a heavy mix of telcos in NI. We also recognize we're going to go through some portfolio transition in MI, particularly around radio networks, and we want to be disciplined. But obviously, we feel like this is prudent. We think it's a great platform from an investment perspective. I'll talk a little bit about that at the end. But we also think it's prudent. And what I want to see, and I've talked about this a little bit in earnings and certainly in other forums, I want to see us be predictable and stable in terms of execution. And that for me is important because I think that's a part of -- an important part of investing in us and seeing us as a valuable option of where to put your capital.
David Mulholland
executiveI think we'll go to Andrew.
Andrew Gardiner
analystAndrew Gardiner from Citi. Another one on fixed. If I look at how you described the addressable market growing, yes, less than switching and optical, but still it was a high single-digit growth number. If I sort of back out the fixed assumption within your guidance between the 6% to 8% for NI and the 10% to 12% optical and IP, you get to sort of down mid-single digits. So there's a big delta when you compound that over 3 years. You've talked about sort of pruning and being a bit more selective, but it seems a much bigger step in terms of the seeding of market -- sort of choice to seed market share there. Just how bad was the problem within fixed in terms of taking low-margin business previously that you've got to make such a big step in terms of seeding market share in that division?
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. Look, I think we have a very healthy market share in OLT. And as David said, right, this fixed was kind of used as the way to find marginal profit to offset some of the other businesses and sometimes define top line. So we're going to be disciplined about it. We have a very strong portfolio, but we also need that business to go through a portfolio transition. A great example is just look at the impact of the business. If you look at -- and you'll see it in the numbers, if you look at fixed when you back out FWA and SIOP, you see some of that. So I think we're giving ourselves a balanced view to be able to go grow in the core business. Ultimately, I think this is a very good market for us. We're a clear leader. We're investing in this space. We have differentiated technology in Quillion. However, some of the revenue there we've had is what I would call low-calorie revenue, and we just need to be disciplined about it.
David Mulholland
executiveI think we'll take our last question from Emil.
Emil Immonen
analystEmil Immonen from DNB Carnegie. Maybe one last on mobile infrastructure. Could you elaborate maybe the long-term thinking because I think Pallavi described pretty well that kind of the network requirements are changing. So is the target of having this almost flat in the next 3 years just because we're in the middle of the 5G transition. So then the growth comes when we go to 6G?
Justin Hotard
executiveDo you want to make a comment, at least on...
Pallavi Mahajan
executiveYes. So the way we are seeing it and especially the AI-RAN portfolio that we have, it is going to be 5G ready. And then for us, 6G is just a software upgrade. The way we look into it is like some of our leading operators are the ones who are actually going to take up the AI-RAN and that's where we are actually co-creating with them. And then the rest of the industry is actually going to go about and latch on because that's -- as you go about and develop this, and we were talking about it, this is where we start creating value for the operators. Those values can come in into simple examples of node slicing, for example, right? How you can take care of different customers, different segments in a different way, how you can actually bring in all these better user experiences, whether it is in terms of connected cars, AR/VRs and all of that stuff.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes. I'd add 2 things, Emil. Just in terms of thinking about the business, you have 2 things happening at once. One, there's parts of the portfolio, parts of the services portfolio, product portfolio where the businesses don't generate a return, and we're just putting simple discipline around the business, right? And that's what we touched on. So that puts a headwind on growth, right? That's one element. The other. If you think about what we're doing, we're basically going through a hardware-centric transition to a software-driven business model. And I touched on this a little bit in my comments, but storage is probably a good analogy to think about as another technology segment that went through this or core networks is obviously a very close one for us. But as you think about that, what you have is the hardware commoditizes. So you see top line pressure on the hardware because you're not going to -- you're not trying to pack value into the hardware. And then the software goes from being a -- either embedded in the hardware or a term license depending on the model with the customer and the model to being a subscription recurring revenue model. And so that means that it's recognized ratably. So those things put some pressure on the top line of the business and a little bit on profit, obviously, because you're making that transition. So that's why we're being prudent and disciplined. And that's why when I said the comment I made before, if you just think about the core business and Patrik's business, you have a very stable profit base, and that's what allows us to make this transition. But ultimately, again, if you look at this industry and you look at the 2 big Western players after all of the consolidations, it's -- this hasn't been the most attractive investment. And I believe we're going to go through an interesting cycle. Now is the time to change the model. When I look at what's happened with core, I think the opportunity is to do something very similar in radio. Also, I just -- everything Pallavi's shared technically, the market will need it because if we just deliver the same radio networks with faster bandwidth, this won't actually work for the market that we're in. It won't work to bring industrial AI and physical AI into the world. So I think it's a -- I'm sure it's challenging to see the -- kind of see the logic and the math, but we actually feel like we've got a lot of opportunity here. We've done -- as I said, we've gotten started on this for some time. Now it's just about focusing and executing and seeing that trajectory. The last thing I'll say is remember that the early deployments of AI-RAN are a hardware upgrade, right? 1 million units of AirScale units, 1 million units of AirScale deployed in the market, that installed base is the first place we anticipate upgrades. And so -- and T-Mobile talked about that in the announcement we did with NVIDIA. So again, that's not a huge -- the big revenue sweeps come from the radio. If we're upgrading to 6G -- or sorry, 5G AI native to 6G with just an upgrade to the baseband hardware, a slide in the baseband hardware, that's also a lower revenue performance because most of the top line really comes when you deploy a large radio network. So it's a little bit to unpack, and we'll look to continue to talk to you about this and explain it as clearly as we can as we go through it because obviously, it's important. And no one asked questions of Patrik, but I think hopefully, you got a good picture today of the fact that he's got a portfolio and a revenue stream that's incredibly stable. We're investing for the future. That gives us a strong base, but when I think about the comps in his market, he's a significantly larger and compelling business. And I think that positions us well with the cash flow and the stable profit to make this transition.
Marco Wiren
executiveLong term.
David Heard
executiveAlways important to have an ATM.
Marco Wiren
executiveAnd longevity is extremely important. And I hope that Patrik could convince you as well that this is not some business that is just in a good level now and then it's going down. This is something we continuously continue investing to new standards, new innovations to secure that we create that cash flow and profits.
David Mulholland
executiveThank you, Justin, and all the presenters, and thank you all for joining us. I think I'll hand back to Justin just for a couple of concluding remarks.
Justin Hotard
executiveYes, yes, yes. Look, first of all, thank you for taking the time to be with us today. As I touched on, and there was a question in the room, I thought it was a good one. So I'll just -- I'll reanswer it again, which is all of this opportunity, fairly conservative forecast. It's a balanced forecast. Again, this is -- Nokia is a company that has not consistently executed. And in some cases, we haven't consistently delivered a compelling return on investment. That's a part of the journey of what we're changing. What I'll also share is this is more than just the GLT you saw up here today. This is the set of leaders. In fact, over half of our employees contributed their feedback and input to our vision and strategy and where they want to see us differentiate. Over those half, they all talked about the core of being an innovative company, partnering better with our customers and empowering our team to lead by connecting intelligence. I think we have a clear North Star for the company now. We have 5 key strategic priorities that are informing our decisions. And I think we have a reasonable platform, which will deliver both top line growth and ultimately, midterm profit expansion, targeting double-digit operating profit CAGR through 2028. In addition, I think that -- this time period over this 3 years sets us up to being a far more profitable and far more compelling growth story down the road as the markets we're in, both continue to grow in the case of NI and return to growth in the case of MI. Thank you, and we look forward to seeing you soon.
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