Pernod Ricard SA ($RI)

Good evening, and thank you for joining our FY '26 Q3 [ net ] sales call. I'm Joelle Ferran, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm pleased to welcome Helene de Tissot, our Global EVP, Finance & Tech. Helene will begin with a brief overview of our Q3 performance, after which we'll open the call for questions. Please note, unless otherwise stated, all sales growth figures discussed today refer to organic net sales. With that, I hand it over to you, Helene.

Thank you, Joelle, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin discussion on our Q3 sales results, I will say a word regarding our press release of 27th of March, in which we confirm discussions are taking place regarding a potential business combination with Brown-Forman. As stated, we did not intend to communicate further until either an agreement is reached or discussions are terminated. Discussions are ongoing. So at this stage, I have no further comments to make. Returning to the topic for our call, our sales performance in Q3. Today, we report as expected, a sequential improvement in organic net sales in Q3 compared to H1 with plus 0.1%. Reported sales are down minus 14.6% with negative FX at minus 7% and perimeter impact of minus 7.7%. The FX is mainly due to U.S. dollar, Indian rupee and Turkish lira and the perimeter effect is due to the disposals of our wines, [indiscernible] brands. Volumes in Q3 are back to growth with plus 4% within which and important to note, we have strategic international brand volumes growing in Q3 at plus 3%. When excluding the U.S. and China markets, which contracted minus 12% and minus 7%, respectively, sales in the rest of the world are growing strongly at plus 5%. Sales have improved in markets across all regions in Q3, with strong momentum in emerging markets and continued growth in several major markets. Markets that have turned to growth in Q3 include Travel Retail at plus 11%; U.K. mid-single-digit growth; Spain, double-digit growth; Korea, double-digit growth; and Brazil, low single-digit growth. Markets in which organic growth momentum is maintained or is accelerating include India, plus 11%; Japan, high single-digit growth; and Turkey double-digit growth. We are exploiting evolving consumer trends to capture growth. This includes actions that address consumer trends and needs, including, for example, addressing affordability with revenue growth management; smaller formats and standard and premium brands; experiences with music festival activations; convenience, including through TV and through targeted store activations and broadening the consumption occasion with the launch of new and low alcohol products. Moving now to our year-to-date performance. Year-to-date, organic sales are down minus 4.4% with the U.S. minus 14% and China, minus 24%. Reported sales are down minus 14.8%, with FX negative minus 5.9% and perimeter minus 4.5%. Excluding the U.S. and China, sales in the rest of the world are in growth, plus 1%. Volumes year-to-date is down minus 1.6% in total of which Strategic International Brands volumes are down minus 1.4%. When excluding the U.S. and China markets, Strategic International Brands volumes are up plus 1.4%. We are actively managing what is within our control, adapting our resources with agility, deploying our efficiency program, steering the organization to fuel our future growth and optimize our cash generation. The global environment remains volatile and uncertain, notably with the conflict in the Middle East. In these circumstances, along with our diversified premium brand portfolio, we benefit from our [ balance and those ] based geographic footprint. Our direct exposure to the Middle East is circa 2% of group sales. We expect full year sales to be impacted, though the scale will naturally be dependent on the duration of the conflict, I will return to this in our updated outlook. We are monitoring the situation closely. Turning now to take a closer look at sales in our markets and regions, beginning with our #1 must-win market, the U.S. We have organic sales down minus 12% in Q3 and minus 14% year-to-date. Market conditions in the U.S. remain soft with the spirits market, excluding RTD down circa minus 5% compared to circa minus 3% one year ago. After a soft Q2 holiday season, Q3 bottled spirits market performance improved to minus 4% slightly ahead of the year-to-date trend. The on-trade channel, which performed better than the off-trade, demonstrating that channels relevant for consumers who are prioritizing experiences and social connections. Gains made over the past year in our sale of Capital Markets were sustained in Q3 with a gap holding at circa 2 points. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. remains low and affordability remains a key issue for some consumers. We see shoppers ready to expand on discretionary items. We are adapting to these changing conditions, for example, with small pack sizes and targeted promotional investments on key brands, so our products remain relevant and affordable for consumers. We have as well launched significant innovation in fiscal year '26. We're putting new consumers and maintaining desirability in bringing incremental value to our customers. Notable recent examples include Absolut TABASCO, targeting key evolving consumer locations such as branch and expanding the Absolut drink strategy [indiscernible] such as the Blood Mary or Spicy Lemonade, which particularly lean into daytime consumption occasions. Within the Jameson family, we launched Jameson Triple Triple expanding our Jameson offer for whiskey enthusiasts, and leveraging a more affordable upsell opportunity and as [ we are managing ] do things for fun, flavored recruitment of new consumers. We believe that our growth portfolio is well positioned within the U.S. market, and we continue to activate our brands to meet consumer needs across price points. We are maximizing the consumer impact and value creation of price promotions. Our teams leveraged our revenue growth management expertise and AI tools to plan and execute of promotion at the optimum depth and frequency. While the U.S. market remains soft, we are convinced that the current challenges are primarily cyclical linked to affordability issues. However, we are not complex to it, and we monitor with vigilance the changing consumer trends, adapting and flexing our brand strategies in response. We remain confident in the recovery of the spirits market. Moving to India, our #2 market by net sales, with double-digit organic sales growth in Q3, plus 11%, year-to-date, 6%. When excluding Imperial Blue, year-to-date sales are growing by 9%. I remind you that the Imperial Blue disposal closed 10th of November, so sales are excluded from organic performance since December. The Indian market continued to enjoy dynamic consumer fundamentals and sales benefit from strong underlying demand and continuing premiumization. Growth in Q3 is broad-based across the portfolio with imported spirits in strong double-digit growth including Jameson, Absolut and Scotch brands, The Glenlivet, Chivas and Royal Salute and with strong growth from local brands, especially Blenders Pride and with the launch of the new [ exclamation ] range of [indiscernible]. Moving to China. Organic sales in Q3 contracted minus 7%, year-to-date is at minus 24%. Q3 sales benefited from the later timing of Chinese New Year, However, underlying sellout was soft in line with the cautious sentiment of the trade ahead of the [ safety ] period. The market is not yet stabilized. The macro context remains challenging with weak consumer confidence and patterned regulatory environment. Year-to-date sales of Martell and then in Scotch whiskeys are declining, while premium brands enjoy positive sales momentum. Let's move now to Global Travel Retail. Global Travel Retail Q3 organic sales grew plus 11% and plus 2% year-to-date. Global Traveler's numbers remain strong and continue to present positive dynamics with all regions showing travel numbers ahead of pre-COVID. Within this positive environment and as expected, sales in Global Travel Retail are rebounding with the resumption of cognac sales in China duty free. Sales in Asia also benefited from an active safety marketing program celebrating Chinese New Year, including Travel Retail Limited Editions, leading to strong double-digit sell-out growth from Martell over the period. I am encouraged to see Chinese travelers demonstrating enduring strong retraction and consideration toward Martell and our ability to engage with them through impactful activations. Remaining in Asia with Duty Free, I also want to highlight that Korea Duty Free is now back to growth this quarter. Elsewhere, Europe and the Americas continue to present positive momentum in sell-out notably cruises in the Americas. As you can imagine, the Middle East faces travel disruption as a result of conflict there and full year sales in Global Travel Retail are now expected to be in slight decline. In the rest of the world and beginning with markets in Europe, we see conditions improving in a number of important markets there. Organic sales in Europe were back to growth in Q3 with [indiscernible] including in Spain, which benefits from the earlier Easter, also back to growth in the U.K. and with growth continuing in Ireland as well as in Eastern Europe. France and Germany continued to decline in Q3. In Asia, rest of the world region, Q3 organic sales are in growth at plus 6%. Focusing on Asia, when we exclude India and China, sales grew strongly in Q3 with double-digit growth benefiting from the timing of Chinese New Year in some of the Southeast Asia markets. Here, Japan continued its good momentum and Korea, which was declining the first semester is now back to growth supported by the timing of the Lunar New Year. In America, Brazil is back to growth this quarter following the easing of the impacts from the methanol prices. Canada continues to enjoy its good momentum. And finally, in Africa and Middle East, which is mid-single-digit organic growth, Q3 sees organic growth continued notably in Turkey and strong underlying momentum continues in South Africa. Now moving to our outlook. In a context that remains volatile and uncertain, we continue to see fiscal year '26 as a transition year and in line with our expectations. Organic net sales strongly improve in Q3. Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, we now expect organic net sales to decline by minus 3% to minus 4% for the full year. The investment ratio expected to remain at circa 16%. We continue to invest to increase our brand's desirability with sharp allocation, efficiency, innovation and experiences. We continue to defend our organic operating margin to the fullest extent possible, supported by strict cost control and the implementation of our fiscal year '26 to fiscal year '29 EUR 1 billion operational efficiency program, including the adaptation of our Fit for Future organization. I remind you that we are on track to deliver 1/3 of those efficiencies within this fiscal year. Our focus on cash generation continues, with strategic investments for fiscal year '26, now expected to be below EUR 700 million and maintaining strong operating working capital management. We are aiming for cash conversion of circa 80% and above this fiscal year. We expect FX impact to be significantly negative. In conclusion, we have 2 of our 4 must-win markets in strong growth in Q3 with growth in India accelerating and with a rebound in Global Travel Retail. We have markets that are maintaining the already positive momentum such as Canada, Thailand, Turkey and Japan, and we have markets that are now coming back to growth, having declined in H1, including the U.K., Korea and Brazil. I believe this demonstrates the resilience of our diversified model from both the portfolio and geographic footprint point of view, the key strength of the Pernod Ricard business model. On that note, this now concludes my prepared remarks.

Thank you, Helene. We will now take your questions. But please, I must ask you to respect that this call is to discuss Q3 sales results and we won't be able to address any question regarding Brown-Forman. So no more than two questions each, please. Over to the operator.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Celine Pannuti at JPMorgan.

So my first question will be on the outlook. Can you try to help us understand, clearly, you said that Travel Retail will be slightly negative for the full year. It doesn't seem that you have had an impact in Q3 or maybe I'm mistaken. So can you explain what you expect to be getting much weaker in the fourth quarter. And beyond Travel Retail, can you give us a bit of a steer by regions on whether there are other impacts that we should be aware of? And maybe on the same vein, if you could tell whether in Q3, clearly, there has been some benefit from Easter and the Lunar New Year, the Chinese New year, how much of that helped Q3 and could be a headwind for Q4? So that was my first question. And then my second question is on the U.S. clearly, you have had benefited as well from a big -- better market. What is your sense for as we look into Q4 where we'll have less of an inventory impact, if you could comment on the situation there? And then it seems that as well, there's been a bit more promotional environment. Could you give us a bit of a steer on what's happening on your pricing overall for that region -- that country rather.

Thank you. So I will try to give you two answers to what I believe is more like 5 questions, but hopefully, with my [ lazier ] expectations. So first, let me clarify what we are facing, especially I think your first question is mainly on the impact on the conflict in the Middle East. So that's true that there was already some impact in Q3, especially obviously, the month of March, which has been significantly disrupted, especially in the perfected area. So it's not a big impact on the Q3 performance. But to give you some color, if there was no conflicts in the Middle East, Q3 would probably have been more close to, let's say, something like plus 0.5%, 0.6% growth. So the impact, obviously, is again mainly in the affected area in March both domestic markets and Travel Retail. When it comes to the distance to go and the Q4 in Travel Retail, it's fair to assume that as far as we speak today, the conflict is in place. It has some disruption, of course, in the affected areas. There could be as well some limited, I would say, secondary impact outside of the affected areas, especially when you think about logistics, some -- as well disruption in terms of the limited disruption in terms of supply, probably as well as some impact in terms of caution and willingness to travel. That's what we are taking into consideration to modestly, I would say, change the outlook for the year. And your second question was I think in terms of technicalities in Q3, I would say when you take all those positive and negative elements, technical ones, it's probably more or less neutral. You mentioned some of the favorable impact. You're absolutely right. And with the earlier Easter, this is, for instance, definitely the reason why Spain is back to growth in Q3, where the market is still under pressure. And this will, in a way, reverse or at least normalize in Q4. [indiscernible] of course, as well, you're right. This is later timing compared to last year. But please keep in mind as well that last year, there was a kind of significant impact of the same uncertainty, especially in the U.S. that has booked shipments a bit higher than the [indiscernible] happen without the, I would say, Liberation Day events. So all in all, that's more or less neutral and the improvement that we were expecting and that we have delivered in Q3 are absolutely technical [indiscernible]. When you mentioned then Q4 happening in the U.S., so the -- I mean, obviously, our focus is to keep closing the gap versus the market. I mentioned in my introduction that the gap now is at circa 2 points, and we are holding that gap. There's lots of excitement in the team when it comes to Q4 activation program, maybe let me name a few. We have more to come and with the exciting partnership with a major [indiscernible], these are [indiscernible] happening in terms of festivals with Coachella some other musical festivals in Q4 where our brands would be very well curated especially Absolut but not only Absolut. We have as well a very strong innovation pipeline in the days and weeks to come. And we launched Absolut TABASCO as well [indiscernible] and Absolut Ocean Spray new flavors in the weeks to come. So lots of excitement and busy activation for our brands and our portfolio in the U.S. in Q4. You were, I think, asking as well a question on promotions. Obviously, this is an environment which is quite busy in terms of promotions, and we are actively leveraging our capability as well to make sure that all promotion assets are extremely efficient and I would say, targeted. And this is well obviously part of what keeps our option busy for the weeks to come in the U.S. and elsewhere.

The next question is from Sanjeet Aujla, UBS.

A couple from me, please. Firstly, I think you highlighted 4% volume growth in the quarter. I think that would imply price/mix is running at minus 4%. Can you just help us understand within that, the composition between headline pricing and any product and geographic mix impacts. Clearly, I guess India is weighing a little bit on that, but really trying to get a sense of underlying pricing, please? And then clearly, you highlighted today, Helene, the demand impact from what's going on in the Middle East. But can you just help us understand a little bit what the implications are for your cost of sales? Just remind us perhaps on your hedging policy there and maybe any early sensitivities on what that could mean for COGS, please?

Yes. Thank you. So your first question, you're absolutely right. And when you look at Q3 there's -- with this very productive growth momentum for volumes, which means that price/mix is under pressure. I wouldn't consider that this is deteriorating. And when it comes to price, it's quite subdued, the price environment as we speak. But no deterioration to flag. The mix is a bit negative, especially when you think about the U.S. and China next year, which, as you know, this is as well quite different from our underlying performance in both markets with the inventory adjustments that we were flagging from the beginning of this fiscal year that are impacting our selling versus the underlying demand. So this has, I would say, an additional negative impact in terms of price/mix, but price is subdued and negative mix is mainly to market mix. The second question in terms of the impact from the conflict in the Middle East on our margin and a bit more specifically, the exposure to the energy cost. So first, let me say that for the fiscal year '26 operating margin outlook, which we are not changing, we want to protect it as much as we can. This conflict should not have a significant impact. And the reason for that is that, as you alluded to, we have a sort of hedging instruments in place that are protecting us from the exposure of the spot price volatility. On top of that, as you know, we -- the impact that could hit us in terms of [indiscernible] good would be for a significant part differ in terms of P&L impact because of the [ aged ] portfolio that we have. So all in all, no significant impact for the margin protection by fiscal year '26.

The next question is from Andrea Pistacchi, Bank of America.

My first question is on China. I was hoping you could give a bit more color there. Are there any signs of the crackdown easing? It's been going on now for about 9 months. Where do you reckon underlying performance is stock levels? And most of all, given all the above, how are you thinking about the outlook in China, Q4 and maybe next year? And then the second question is, excluding U.S. and China, and you've commented quite a bit on this already, but excluding the U.S. and China, the group had a strong quarter. You said plus 5%, I think, in H1, ex U.S. and China. Growth was around zero and the same in fiscal '25, growth around zero. So you've given some color already, but besides phasing effects, besides comp effects, in what markets do you genuinely think or see that there is an improvement in the underlying performance? I mean India is consistently strong, but other markets where you're seeing things get better?

Yes. Thank you. So first question is in China. So it shouldn't be -- to be fair, the environment is not evolving significantly. I mean the consumer confidence remains quite weak. And we don't see yet any tangible dividends of an improvement. So the underlying sellout is running at quite similar rate in Q3 than they were in H1. So with no improvement in consumer demand. For Chinese New Year, it's been, I would say, a bit contrasted because it's been soft in China as expected and very much in line with the trade sentiment that we were sharing in our H1 communication but it's been quite strong in duty free. So it shows as well that Martell is a very strong brand. And when Chinese consumers are, I would say, in a more confident mood when they -- especially when they travel, they have quite positive consideration towards Martell. To be fair, we've been as well quite busy in activating Martell in Asia duty-free. It has grown strong limited editions that have been quite successful but globally, premier category as a whole remained under pressure during Chinese New year, especially in the South region, which is as you know, quite important for the Cognac category. When it comes to Q4, and so Q4 is a quarter where the -- it's a low quarter. And it's not a big quarter in terms of seasonality for our -- for Martell. So we're going to -- we expect Q4 to be in a modest growth when it comes to China with the strong positive momentum on our premium brands to continue. So your second question was, I'm sorry?

The second question was markets ex U.S. and China, where you're generally seeing sort of improving momentum, excluding phasing comps, et cetera.

Yes. So first, as I said in the first question, I don't think you should be distracted by those comp things because all in all, it's almost neutral because again, U.S. was having a very high comp. So they are definitely some improvement in the NIM trends that we were expecting. So let's start by our two must-win markets, Travel Retail and India. So Travel Retail, we are back to business. And excluding India, China duty free with Martell, which is obviously materializing in a quite dynamic top line growth. And the other geographies are as well seeing good momentum. India, acceleration in India, which was as well expected, both because the change in the [indiscernible] you see impact is easing. And secondly, we have an acceleration of our portfolio, both imported one and local one, which is, as you know, exactly the reason why as well we were quite happy to sell Imperial Blue business so that we can really focus on accelerating those, I would say, two beautiful legs of our portfolio in India and [ explanation ] is a strong innovation. Still early days, but we are quite happy with the dynamic there. And it's -- that's the only region where things are improving. So maybe let's stay in Asia for a while and Korea is improving. And so this is good news. Q3 is back to growth. Japan is still growing quite strongly. If I move now to maybe Africa. So Africa, I would say, except the Middle East conflict, we have the strong momentum, which is quite in line with the H1 performance. In Americas, Brazil [indiscernible] described as well expected across the year. I mean, the recovery as well as the year -- a list of good prices and Canada is a good momentum, as you know. And when it comes to Europe, I would say, -- so I put aside Spain because of the Easter impact, but U.K. is back to growth, and we have as well a continued good momentum in many other markets in Europe such as Ireland, Nordic and Eastern Europe.

The next question is from Laurence Whyatt, Barclays.

Two for me, please. Firstly, in the U.S., you changed your route to market at the end of the summer. I'm just wondering how that changes performed versus your expectations? And whether there's been any disruption in the U.S. market as a result of that change, usually, you would comment on route-to-market changes as leading to disruption, but we've not seen any comments to that effect in the U.S. And then secondly, you paid the same interim dividend as you paid for the last couple of years. I'm just wondering what would you need to see in change in circumstances to force you to change that policy? Of course, your net debt EBITDA level is slightly higher than your target range. Just wondering if there's anything that could happen that would cause you to change your dividend payout levels.

So maybe I'll start by your second question. I mean, let's be very direct. We have confirmed the intention to maintain the dividend in February, and we are announcing the payments of the dividend installments, the first installment of dividend in July as usual. So I think it's quite consistent in terms of [indiscernible], which is no change. And your first question, in terms of route to market, so you're absolutely right. We -- and by the way, the go-to-market in many countries, but starting with the U.S. is obviously a key element to make sure that we have a very strong partnership with our wholesalers to really focus on excellence in execution. So a new-to-market relationship, I would say, have been put in place over last summer, and they were as well some additional changes very recently with the sales of the [indiscernible] business to [ race ] in 10 states. So our team have been working hand in hand with the wholesalers to really make sure that this evolution of our distributor ecosystem, I would say, is happening in a very smooth and focus on excellence in execution way on both fronts [indiscernible] and for the wholesalers. And that's exactly what's happening right now even with the recent evolution. So that obviously, we can limit very significantly any type of disruption that could happen.

So just to confirm, you see no disruption at all from the U.S. Retail market?

That's our top priority, to make sure that there is no disruption. So this is a focus on the team. So we are confident that they're going to manage to have a smooth transition, if I can use this word.

The next question is from Simon Hales, Citi.

So my first question is just going back to the Middle East impact in the quarter and looking forward. I mean, Helene, you indicated that without the Middle East impact, perhaps group organic sales would be up about 50 bps better. Can you just drill down a little bit more into what you saw in terms of the impact of the conflict in March? Am I right to assume that basically the Middle East Travel Retail business was basically closed in March, so we should think about that being down pretty well 100%. But what about the performance you saw in some of the markets around the region? I'm thinking particularly like Turkey. Just be interesting some more color there. And just associated with that, have you seen any supply disruption issues yet around some of the fuel rationing restrictions we're starting to hear around in some of the Southeast Asian markets. So that's my first question. And then secondly, briefly on the U.S., you talked about a better performance in the on-premise that you're seeing. Can you give a bit more color there about the on-premise versus off-premise growth rates you're seeing? And is your growth gap versus the market the same in both channels?

Yes. Thank you. So let's start with your first question. So I mean, your assumptions are basically right. March has been almost few for these affected areas for obvious reasons. And obviously, the same thing for the duty-free business with everything that's happened in terms of [indiscernible] closure and so on. So this is perfectly what you were pursuing, and this started, as you know, very early March to -- the month of March has been impacted by that. No significant impact -- negative impact in Turkey, you refer to Turkey, this is not something that we are facing as we speak. And your question about supply disruption. So it's true that there is some pressure on that. some, let's say, potential threats. And our teams are extremely engaged to make sure that they can get the right supply for the weeks to come. So I would say we are very closely monitoring that as we speak. For the U.S., a question on-trade [ and off-trade ]. So yes, the on-trade is a bit better. What I think is very positive about it. So first, as you know, we have kind of overexposure to the on-trade in the U.S., when you think about our portfolio, we've been very much accelerating the activation in the on-trade recently for, I would say, a very good reason because our brands can really, I would say, showcase and recruit consumers in the on-trade, and there was a need to reinforce that a bit. And it shows us where in terms of consumer behavior and willingness to socialize and to celebrate the fact that the on-trade is quite anemic, that this, I would say, consumer need is there and remains quite powerful. No significant difference, I would say, in terms of a gap to the market in the on-trade versus the off-trade. But again, you can expect us to be really in an acceleration mode in terms of activation in the on-trade.

The next question is from Trevor Stirling, Bernstein.

Two questions from my side, please. The first one, Helene, you've very kindly told us about the direct impact of the conflict on your sales in the Middle East, but particularly in the United States, are you starting to see any second order impact of the very weak consumer confidence? Is that feeding through into consumption trends in March in the U.S. or maybe it's too early to say? And the second question, you explained a lot about the moving parts in Q4, Helene, given your guidance implies a little bit of a further acceleration in Q4. And it sounds as if that's partly because China is going to be a little bit less worse and then the momentum you've seen in many other countries is going to be sustained. Is that a fair summary?

So thank you, Trevor. So your first question, I would say I don't think there's, right now, a significant tangible impact in terms of consumer confidence because of the conflict. Obviously, I don't think it's helping anyone in terms of optimism, but let's not be extrapolating of what we are not facing today. And the impact of the conflict for us is really what I was describing before, which is obviously affected areas and some limited impact outside of affected areas in terms of probably limited supply disruptions and probably as well cautioning the willingness to travel. So nothing more than that as we speak. When it comes to Q4, I mean, to be fair, when you look at the modest change we are bringing in terms of outlook, this is more flagging to a kind of modest decline in Q4 due to the Middle East conflict. As you mentioned, and I think I was as well, alluding to that Q4 in China is expected to be better than Q3, again, because it's a low season for cognac, and we expect improving sales momentum on our premium brands to drive that growth in Q4. In the other geography, I think it's probably a continuation of the improving trends that we are delivering in Q3 and positive momentum for the markets that are already in a good place in H1. When it comes to the U.S., again, the full year net sales is very likely to be much worse than the underlying trends because of the inventory adjustments and the high comp last year linked to the tariffs from [ Southeast ].

Thank you, Trevor, and thank you all. We will now end the call. Have a great rest of the day.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.