Poste Italiane S.p.A. (PST) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

July 24, 2026

BIT IT Financials Financial Services earnings

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#1

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Poste Italiane's Second Quarter and First Half 2026 Results Conference Call. In a few moments, our CEO, Matteo Del Fante will take you through some opening remarks, including an overview of our key strategic initiatives. Then our CFO, Camillo Greco, will give an update on the Team transaction and deep dive on financials. As usual, the presentation will be followed on the Q&A session where you can ask questions either by a phone or to our webcast platform. For any topics we won't be able to cover today, please contact the Investor Relations team who will provide any clarification in that regards. With that, over to you, Matteo.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#2

Thank you, Giuseppe, and thank you all for joining us. Our first half results marked another record for Poste Italiane and confirm once again the strength and resilience of our platform business model. We're reporting record first half revenues at EUR 6.8 billion, up 6% with healthy growth across all business units. Profitability reached a new high adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.8 billion, up 7% year-on-year, reflecting solid top line growth and continued cost discipline. Net profit came in at EUR 1.2 billion, up 4%. Commercial momentum remained strong with EUR 2.7 billion investment net inflows improving postal saving trends and stable retail deposit taking total financial assets to a remarkable EUR 613 billion. Our balance sheet remains rock solid with a Solvency II ratio at 303% and almost EUR 900 million cash generated in the first 6 months. These results reinforce our confidence in the rest of the year. We confirm our 2026 stand-alone guidance and dividend policy supported by the consistent delivery of our strategy and strong business momentum. Moving to Slide 4. Today, it's not only about record results, we're presenting also, and this is very important, a clear road map for the next phase of our platform company journey. We have agreed the term sheet for the new 2027, 2030 postal savings agreement providing further visibility on this important revenue stream over the next 3 to 4 years. Camillo will cover this in more detail later. With the creation of the financial app, we're simplifying our group structure, reinforcing client-centric approach and optimizing capital. Yesterday, we have signed a landmark agreement with our labor unions on the reorganization of our physical network through a hub-and-spoke model, making it more flexible and effective for the million of clients we serve. We are adopting AI scale to drive cross-selling and efficiency gain across the entire group powering our technical omnichannel commercial engine and rewiring the way we work through Agentic and physical AI. Finally, we continue to execute decisively on the team to action. The tender period offer started on July 20 and will run to September 11. On July 18, the import unanimously deem the consideration of fair from a financial point of view and positively assess the rationale and business prospects of the transaction. Upon completion, we expect to present the combined entity business plan by the first quarter of 2027. Let's move to group financial results on Slide 5. And we have posted for the fifth consecutive time, a record second quarter and first half with revenue at 3.4% in Q2, up 4% year-on-year and 6.8% in half 1, up 6%. Top line drives profitability with adjusted EBIT for the first half at 1.8%, up 7% year-on-year. Net profit, excluding the stake contribution was EUR 1.2 billion in half 1, up 4%. Moving to Slide 6. Revenue momentum remains healthy across all businesses. In Mail, Parcel & Distribution growth was driven by parcel and logistics with mail revenues supported by ongoing repricing. Financial Services revenues continued to grow in the first half to EUR 3 billion, supported by a strong investment portfolio contribution and solid commercial activity. Insurance Services delivered strong results across both Life & Protection with revenues up 9% in the first half to EUR 983 million, reflecting higher stock and CSM release. Postepay services kept absolute solid performance across products, underscoring the strength of the everyday platform. Let's move to our key strategic initiatives, starting from Slide 8. We are strengthening our client-centric approach and unlocking additional value across the organization through the creation of a single financial app, bringing financial insurance and payments together and moving from 4 to 2 reporting business unit. The project is structured in 2 phases. Phase 1 by the end of this year, will bring together our banking, insurance and payment activities into a single financial insurance service hub from a divisional and managerial standpoint. PostePay will be demerged and its payment business will be allocated to Banco Posta Phase 2 over 27 and 28, we'll see also the allocation of the Postelita stake to Banco Posta subject to regulatory and legal approvals. This reorganization will generate tangible value through both revenue discipline and cost efficiencies. On the revenue side, we will see higher net interest income thanks to the increase of Banco Posta regulatory capital, enabling additional leverage capacity. We also expect higher inflows supported by stronger network governance and enhanced advisory tools as well as enhance cross and upselling between current accounts and prepaid count fostered by a new digital platform to be launched next year. On the cost side, we regenerate efficiency through the redeployment of up to 25% of the combined Banco Posta and Postepay workforces. The new divisional reporting will be implemented from beginning of next year. Finally, we're proud to have been selected as a pilot PSP for the digital euro by the ECB, a recognition of our leadership and focus on digital payments and financial innovation. Let's now look how we are reshaping our physical network on Slide #9. Today, each province, and we have 132 of them in Italy, on average, covers around 100 post offices. We believe this is not the most effective way to drive growth through our new productive mode and capture the full potential of our network has the 10 to 100 span of control limit the support that we can provide to some offices. Many of our smaller offices operate in markets where traditional banks have withdrawn leading poster as a primary financial presence. This community represents a significant growth opportunity provided we can deliver stronger commercial focus and advisory support. That is why we're introducing a hub-and-spoke model, an initiative shape through years of planning and constructive engagement with the union represented and the stakeholders, reflecting both the scale and the complexity of the transformation and leading to a signing of a landmark agreement with the unions just yesterday. Under the new structure, province offices will oversee around 10 apps each. And each app will coordinate approximately 10 spoke offices. This reduces the span of control from 100 to 110, creating a much more effective management model. The benefits are clear. stronger governance, better training, greater accountability and more consistent execution across the network. We're also aligning incentives at hub level to encourage collaboration and improve performance across all offices. This model also accelerate the rollout of our specialized advisory model. our dynamic advisers, almost 3,000 of them serve affluent clients and must be highly productive. Our personal adviser over 5,000 serve the mass market in a more reactive way across a larger book. The competition on these 2 initiatives is particularly powerful. The hub structure provides the local leadership and support needed to fully leverage adviser specialization across every office in the network, improving governance and productivity with the ultimate goal of delivering growth. Let's zoom for a second on our platform on Slide 10. The slide captures the essence of auto building, a connected and trusted platform, a client-centric ecosystem our client needs even products. We have built a connected and trusted ecosystem that serves both customers and businesses, combining physical and digital capabilities and a single platform. We support clients across everyday banking, daily services and long-term wealth and protection needs. For businesses that we provide a comprehensive suite of solutions in financial services, logistics, welfare and IT operations. And the center of this ecosystem sits post the path. The single unique access point to our platform that will seamlessly connect our clients to our full suite of solutions, facilitating, onboarding and cross-selling. This will make our platform truly unique, one trusted relationship, one point of access, meeting the full range of client needs, generating engagement, cross-selling and long-term value. Moving to Slide 11. This chart shows how we're evolving our unmatched platform to be further accelerated by potentially the team upon transaction completion. Today, our consumer platform includes logistics and distribution B2B2C model and financial instrument services, which are more on a B2C operations model. TIM Consumer will add an upmarket connectivity offering to our consumer platform. as you can see on the slide. The platform is underpinned by Italy's largest integrated physical and distribution network comprising today, 13,000 post offices, the country living up with 4.2 million daily average users and 49,000 third-party network points. TIM will further enhance this footprint with approximately 4,000 retail outlets, including premium locations, highly complementary to the post office network, while also providing opportunities for further optimization and rationalization. All of this is powered by best-in-class intelligent IT infrastructure and by an AI power omnichannel commercial engine, which I will present a little later. The more connected the ecosystem becomes the greater our ability to deepen client relationships, increase revenue per customer, accelerate cross upselling and finally expand customer lifetime value. To ensure successful execution, strong leadership and clear accountability are essential. This is why we will entrust shortly the responsibility for continuing the entire consumer platform to one of our most experienced senior leaders. Let's see how data and AI power our omnichannel model because [indiscernible] AI effectively is no longer optimal in our opinion. It is a key driver of competitiveness and growth. We think about AI, like everybody else, on 2 fronts, AI outside to boost commercial efforts and AI inside to improve operations. It starts with posted path. On the left, the single access key point to our platform. Everyone of our 27 million daily interaction feeds our knowledge of the client. Everything flows into the AI participator at the center of the page, intersecting client needs and managing traffic. This is where data algorithm and customer relationship become monetizable. The model is future-proof. The same titration is ready to govern new form of e-commerce, such as business to agent where AI agents, not people do the shopping. This is important to highlight our channel work as one integrated system. We encourage everyday transactions on digital channels, while generating post office visits when you advise Metronode, especially for wealth management and long-term needs. The proof is that post office footfall has, in fact, stabilized with branches now focusing on higher value add debt and advisory-led activities. We use AI to power our omnichannel model, while the SuperApp is a high power commercial engine, generating direct digital sales and drive to post office effect. The same intelligence enriches our financial adviser tools with market recommendation, real-time insight and life support during customer conversation. Omnichannel sales penetration reached 46% in half 1 '26, supported by a growing base of 40 million hybrid customers seamlessly engaging across both physical and digital channels. Let's zoom on the super up on Slide 13, which is evolving into a true genic AI power commercial engine. In practice, this means using the eye to make every client interaction more relevant from personalized offer and smarter recommendation to next-generation search conversational support for purchase and location-based engagement at the right moment. This is not just a product evolution. It is the foundation for a broader business to agent model, where AI & marketing will serve both our retail and business ecosystems in a world where agents will increasingly support client choices. Our app operates at an unmatched national scale with 18.2 million users and 4.2 million daily active users in half 1. Recent data shows a further increase in our app users reaching 4.3% in June and in a single day, picking over EUR 5 million in July. This is fact the confirmation of the relevant for our clients and the powerful roll plays as an engage engagement and commercial tool supporting future cross-selling and business growth, 78% of our app users hold 2 or more products, up 330 basis point versus last year compared to less than 40% for non-aha users. Let's turn to AI inside strategy. The infrastructure that powers the orchestrator, the SuprApp and the adviser tool we have just presented, and at the same time, it is reshaping our processes and the way we work. We have built an intelligent infrastructure based on our universal knowledge base Poste Italiane's digital brain and on hybrid cloud AI computing capabilities. This allows us to use AI scale in a cost-effective way, keeping control of our data, supporting productivity solvency and low latency, we are reinventing the software life cycle apply AI across development, maintenance and procurement. This means faster delivery and lower ATM customer operation costs. Finally, we are bringing an eye into the way our people work individual productivity tool, personal agent enterprise agents, redesigned around end-to-end processes. The objective is not to replace people, but to increase productivity and redeploy skills towards higher-value activities. Thanks to AI, we will generate savings of around EUR 150 million in annual IT OpEx and CapEx and EUR 50 million in customizations cost within the next 4 years. At the same time, we're targeting to redeploy up to 20% of our overhead acts to higher value-added tasks within the next 5 years. Let me now hand over to Camillo for an update on the team transaction and deep dive on the financials.

Camillo Greco

executive
#3

Thank you, Matteo. Let me start with a few FX [indiscernible] numbers on Slide 15. The market has given a strong endorsement to the TIM transaction and the clearest abidance is the share price are rating since we announced the deal. Since announcement, the implied value of our offer has risen 21% to EUR 13.1 billion and the implied offer price risen from EUR 6.55 per share to EUR 7.66 per share. . As a result, the premium embedded in our offer has expanded materially, reaching 31% on the spot price and 43% on the 6-month reap compared with 9% and 18%, respectively, at announcement. All of this has taken place while TIM Brazil share price fell by around 10%, meaning that the implied market value of the teams ex Brazil has doubled, while the European telco index has lost around 4% over the same period. The combined entity will have a market cap of circa EUR 45 billion, of which EUR 23 billion free float ensuring substantial stock liquidity. The market is recognizing the strategic and financial merits of the combination and the value that can be created through this transaction. On Slide 16, we have an update on the time line. On July 11, the TIM Board unanimously deemed the consideration offered Fair. The tender offer period started on July 20 and is scheduled to close on September 1 with a potential reopening period between September 21 and 25. We target transaction closing by Q3 '26, allowing us to accelerate integration and start capturing value creation opportunities as early as possible. This time line enabled us to represent the combined entity business plan in Q1 2017, providing a clear strategic road map and visibility on the full value creation potential of the deal. Let's now move to the detailed financial overview of our Q2 and H1 2026 financial results. Starting with made partner distribution revenues in Q2 were at EUR 1 billion, up 7%, whilst in H1, they totaled just over EUR 2 billion, up 6% year-on-year. Net revenues supported by the pricing actions and a favorable mix reached just over EUR 100 million in Q2 and EUR 1 billion in H1. This is a 3% decline in line with the trend that we had already anticipated for full year 2026. Master revenue accelerated 11% to EUR 453 million in Q2 and by 13% to EUR 98 million driven by market share gains across a diversified parcel land base and a continued logistics expansion including a small initial contribution from logistics 30, our Benetton joint venture consolidated from April. Distribution revenues are broadly stable, reflecting lower active portfolio management revenues versus last year. Adjusted EBIT is progressing in line with our 2026 guidance. [indiscernible], parcel volumes grew by 11% in Q2 to EUR 90 million items and by 13% in H1 to EUR 179 million. In Q2 of parcels were delivered through our postal network, up 5 percentage points year-on-year, allowing for a more efficient absorption of fixed costs. The average passive tariff benefited from repricing and mix. On mail, volume trends remain in line with expectations, while the higher average tariff up around 3% in the quarter reflects our ongoing repricing actions. Moving to Slide 20. Financial Services gross revenues were stable at EUR 1.7 billion in the quarter and up 4% year-on-year to EUR 3.5 billion. Net interest income benefited from an improved rate environment reaching EUR 606 million in Q2, while opportunities to generate at portion management revenues for the first half were concentrated in Q1. Postal savings fees were roughly stable in line with full year guidance at EUR 43 million in Q2 and EUR 3 million in Transaction Banking reflected lower traditional payments lease volumes with Q2 revenues at EUR 169 million and H1 revenues at EUR 342 million. Consumer loan fees impacted by higher rates reached EUR 65 million in the quarter and EUR 130 million in H1. Asset management revenues grew on higher assets under management to EUR 56 million and EUR 112 million in H1. Adjusted EBIT reflects top line trends at EUR 265 million in the quarter and EUR 8 million in the first half. Moving to Slide 21. TFAs reached EUR 613 billion, up EUR 13 billion in H1 26. Looking briefly at this component, we reported strong EUR 2.7 billion net inflows in investment products, excluding the Croner, Cronos the rota confirming the positive trend in life insurance with significant contribution from multi-class products as well as asset management. Deposits were up benefiting from higher balances from PA clients and stable retail deposits at EUR 59 billion, confirming the stickiness and loyalty of our customer base. Postal savings net outflows continue to improve, thanks to product innovation and strong commercial focus. Moving to Slide 22. As Matteo mentioned earlier, we have agreed the term sheet with CDP for the new Postal saving distribution agreement covering the 2027, 2030 period. This is an important milestone as it provides enhanced visibility on this significant revenue stream. Thanks to continued product innovation, effective management of maturities and enhancing an solutions we target EUR 1.9 billion of average annual revenues over the period covered by the agreement compared to EUR 1.8 billion over the past 3 years. The framework cost includes higher capacity for more attractive new liquidity offers. This further reinforces the resilience, visibility and long-term quality of our financial services revenue base. Let's now move to Insurance Services on Slide #23. Insurance Services revenues amounted to EUR 5.4 million in Q2, up 11% year-on-year and EUR 983 million in H1, up 9%. We continue to have net inflows in life both in Q2 and H1 with a significant contribution from multi-class products. Lapse rate is improving, down to 6.6% in Q2, driven by lower trans portfolio rebalancing activity in both Q2 and H1, around 35% of our lapses have been reinvested into new life products. Life investment and pension revenues are up 11% to EUR 455 million in Q2 and up 8% in H1 to EUR 878 million, driven by a growing CSM and higher release. Protection revenues were up 13% in Q2 and 11% in H1, supported by a strong growth of retail GWP, which have a higher marginality. Please refer to appendix for further details. The resulting combined ratio of 82% remains amongst the best in the market. In Q2, adjusted EBITDA was up 6% at EUR 436 million and net profit up 5% to EUR 312 million, both reflecting top line trends. On Slide 22, we show the CSM evolution. Group CSM reached EUR 13.8 billion, providing strong visibility on the division's sustainable profitability going forward. [indiscernible] growth of 1.5% annualized, is driven by strong new business and expected return more than offset the period release. PosteVita Group Solvency II ratio was at 303% at the end of June, this ratio already embedded the accrual of the 100% net profit remittance to the parent company. Over the quarter, the ratio benefited from a capital generation more than compensating the foreseeable dividend and a positive impact from lower rates and spreads. Moving to [indiscernible] '26, where solid revenue and EBIT progression continues, underscoring strength of our everyday ecosystem. Revenues rose by 8% year-on-year to EUR 435 million in Q2 and by 7% in H1 to EUR 860 million. Payment revenues at EUR 314 million, up 6% in Q2 and up 5% in H1 to EUR 611 million, supported by higher transaction value up 8% year-on-year and total number of ecosystem transactions, up 1%. The telco business continued to be supported by ongoing client acquisitions with a client base reaching just over EUR 5 million by the end of June. Revenue was stable with EUR 84 million in Q2 and $165 million in H1. Energy revenues were strong, both in Q2 and H1, reaching EUR 38 million, EUR 84 million, respectively, driven by an expanding customer base now at 1.2 million clients. Top line performance and effective cost management drove a strong 10% adjusted EBIT growth in the quarter to EUR 158 million, while H1 EBIT at EUR 310 million is up 12% versus last year. Average head count stood at just over 119,000 in Q2 2026. Importantly, the value-added per FTE continues to improve by 5% at 9,2,000 per FTE. HR cost per FTE are up 1% to 48, 000 per FTE, reflecting labor agreements salary increase. Moving to Slide 8. HR costs increased by 1% in H1 to almost EUR 2.9 billion, with additional costs from labor agreements and an increase, partially compensated by other items. In H1, ordinal cost of revenues were down to 39%. Non-HR costs increased by EUR 140 million year-on-year. fixed costs were up due to a concentration of marketing and advertising costs in the first half. Variable costs are up EUR 138 million, reflecting business growth dynamics. D&A are up by EUR 56 million, in line with the increasing investments driving our continued transformation. Our focus on cost and CapEx discipline across all divisions remains better sharp and protecting the bottom line profitability as well as cash flow is our top priority. Thanks for your time and hand over to Matteo for the wrap-up.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#4

Thank you, Camillo. Today's results clearly demonstrate that Poste Italiane is delivering on its strategy. With the fifth consecutive record first half results, confirming once again the strength and resilience of our diversified platform business model. What is most encouraging is not only where we stand today, but also how far we have progress in building the post of the future. Over the past few years, we have transformed Poste Italiane from a portfolio of businesses into a truly integrated platform company. Increasingly, client-centric, technology-driven empowered by data and AI. We're now embarking on the next step of the journey. We have agreed a temp sheet with GBP on the new postal savings agreement covering '27 to 2030, providing long-term visibility on an important revenue stream. We're simplifying our group structure, creating a financial hub and strengthening our commercial model through the hub and spot network, thanks to a landmark agreement signed with the union yesterday. We're scaling our AI capabilities across customer journeys and internal operation and accelerating the evolution of our unique consumer platform. At the same time, we are accelerating on the Team transaction. On the back of strong market endorsement thing gives us the opportunity to further enhance the strength of our platform, creating an even more powerful ecosystem that combines connectivity technology, financial services, logistics and distribution. We are looking forward to proceeding with this transaction and welcoming the very skilled and valuable management team of Telecom Italia into our ambitious and exciting project. We're entering a new chapter, 1 built that we will be built on record results on a stronger platform and on a clear long-term ambition and vision. We've built the foundation, our execution is accelerating and momentum continues to build up. Thank you to all and over to Giuseppe for the Q&A.

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#5

Thank you, Matteo. [Operator Instructions] The first question we have today is from Antonio Reale, Bank of America.

Antonio Reale

analyst
#6

It's Antonio from Bank of America. Just a couple of questions and perhaps one clarification from my side. My first question is on data centers and the investment needs that come with it. I mean if I take a big picture view Italy and Europe as a whole, probably behind the curve here relative to peers globally. I think we can say that, which is both an opportunity and I think having the state behind you clearly helps, but also challenges that implies that you've got to put a lot of money at play to keep up with investment needs. And I think it's quite clear that the new post team combination is going to be a key player here. So can you just help us a bit to get a better sense of the opportunity for your shareholders? And how do you plan to fund the CapEx cycle ahead? That would be my first question. My second question is on the outlook for NII. I think we've seen short-term rates move up. We've seen a bit of flattening of the long game. So I'd like to hear how the auto torn looks like for you here? And maybe the mix between interest accrual and capital gains, possibly if you could comment beyond this year, just conceptually direction of travel. And lastly, a clarification really. You dropped a stand-alone plan and accelerated the timing of the offer period for TIM. Maybe you can sort of explain a bit more about the rationale for that? And also, what are the implications and time line after receiving the endorsement from TIMs board. Does that change your strategy on take-up levels in any way?

Matteo del Fante

executive
#7

Thank you, Antonio. If Camillo wants to answer on NII, then I will take the other 2 questions.

Camillo Greco

executive
#8

Yes. So with regards to NII, we had committed back in February to a total portfolio return of around EUR 0.7 billion for 2026, which is going to be obviously omni driven by NII, but there was a small component driven by active portfolio management, which is the one we booked in the first quarter, EUR 166 million. Then with the sort of macro environment evolving rates went up, and that led also to revise our guidance upwards to EUR 3.4 billion profit for the full year 2026. And one of the key components of that upgrade was indeed the rates environment. So we are now looking for 2026 at a total portfolio return defined as active portfolio margin plus NII at around EUR 2.8 billion versus EUR 2.7 billion, which was the starting point. With regards to what we can say going forward, maybe say a couple of words on what was described by the CEO with regards to the combination of our everyday business and financial services. We do expect there's going to be at least in the first phase pickup in NII, there too, and that's going to be starting from 2027. That when I say Phase 1, I mean, the phase that entails the combination of PosteVita services and BancoPosta but does not yet include the combination of PosteVita, the contribution rather of PosteVita. And more in general -- I'm sorry, and more in general with respect to the -- our expectation for 2027 and onwards, we will comment on that later on. But obviously, the outlook, let me say, has improved compared to the beginning of the year also for what is beyond 2026.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#9

On data center, I think Antonio, you certainly have a point Italy is behind the curve versus core Europe. And there, we have started really supporting team on one specific project that has started a few months ago is a 20-megawatt initiative. That will be obviously run by TIM, and we will help from the CapEx side, which is not too large, given the size from the poster side. But the real estate component of this initiative of the data center is now a very liquid market populated and supported by all the largest private money funds globally. So they will absorb a meaningful portion of the CapEx element of the next projects. Then we started working on a much larger project. It would be in a location in the real Lombard. The first tranche of this project is as large as 70 megawatts. So that's the land has been identified, the energy supplier has also been identified. And there, we have the support of all the large Italian financial institution and for that matter, corporate that could join forces and create large app where we could run both training model and inference model at scale. Last question on timetable, we committed to pending obviously the team transaction to present a combined plan for Q1, if things go in a dream scenario, very, very, very well. We might be able even to do it faster. We were basically ready with our stand-alone plan. And you have seen it today because we announced 3 cornerstone of the multiyear plan post namely the CDP agreement, the reorganization of our network with mono and the agreement with the union supporting this reorganization, which is clearly a multiyear project. And three, the reorganization of Phase I and Phase 2 of our financial app, but that has also capital release element. So on our side, we already team was also ready so we could go even faster if there is the window.

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#10

Thank you, Antonio. The next question is from Alberto Villa at Intermonte.

Alberto Villa

analyst
#11

I have 2 questions. One is back on the group structure simplification and back on the Phase I and Phase II. I was wondering if you can elaborate a bit more on what is the NII opportunity of both Phase I and Phase II, I guess, Phase 2 is related to also tailing some let's say, sort of leeways on capital absorption and sort of this compromise for the insurance activities within the financial out. So that could be quite material and you can explain a little bit better what is the opportunity? And the second one is on the announced union labor agreement. If you can give us some more details on what is the content of this agreement and how we could really support the evolution of the group going forward. On Slide 8, you put the indication that you expect 25% of the combined workforce of BancoPosta and Postepay to be deployed. So this seems a pretty big number I was wondering if you can give us an idea of what that's in place for the business going forward.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#12

Okay. Camillo take the first and then I take the second.

Camillo Greco

executive
#13

Yes. So with regards to Phase I and Phase II, as I want to reclarify, there is also note in the presentation that Phase 1 is already being implemented where Phase II is subject also to relevant regulatory approvals. So I I'll speak on the first one. And for -- with regards to the first phase, only on NII, we see a benefit of a couple of tens of million that is the order of margin don't want to [indiscernible] at this stage.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#14

I mean, the agreement with the unions is an agreement that does impact any financial aspect, which were already signed last year, but enable Poste to do mainly 2 things. And then there is a third one answering your question. The first thing is Page 9. So if you can go back to that page just for a second. As I said, we divide Italy in 132, we call them provinces, let's call them areas. And below these 132 areas, there are 13,000 offices. And in every single area, you have ahead of the commercial unique for the province, okay? So this guy today has to take control and follow 100 on average post offices. And any province, as you see on the page, has large, medium or small post offices. And obviously, when you have 100 post offices to follow your span of control is clearly too large. And so we basically geo analyze Italy in terms of business opportunities. We identified basically a layer in -- between the province and the office, okay, which is on Page 9, the 1,100 post office apps. These are offices that are already there. Obviously, these are large offices, okay? And those 1,100 large offices that they have, obviously, one person in charge will take the responsibility of one area, what we call the spoke in this new hub and spoke model that has, on average, than offices. And then you will find most likely small offices and medium offices below. To do something like this, Alberto, you are creating a new role, you're creating new incentives, you're potentially also restructuring your province food print, you need to have a specific agreement. And so we've been working on this for 1.5 years. And our target was to have it for the plan. And we were lucky to manage to sign at 5 a.m. yesterday morning. The second item, which is also extremely important. We haven't heard any question, but it relates to our logistics and parcel business. There is a big transformation there. The role of our employees is increasing. The model works because we're increasing consistently for the last few quarters, our market share and we have never been so strong in logistics like we are today. And doing that reorganization in logistics requires some specific changes that need union agreement. Then you referred to the 25% BancoPosta, Postepay combined, which we have put in our plans which is ambitious, I agree, but I think it's also issues, the 20% overall reduction on the overall workforce, nonoperating, let's call it, white collar workforce overhead over the next 4 years. And that is also a part of the agreement. So all in all, we are very, very -- we call it a landmark agreement we have, and this is a perfect opportunity for me to thank all the union representative for their work for their support and for their understanding of the company needs and we made this agreement possible is extremely important.

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#15

And to clarify on that, the labor agreement we are mentioning is not related to the 25% redeployment from BancoPosta, Postapay. That's a separate situation. The labor agreement is about the bespoke model implementation to be clear, and logistics. Okay. The next question is from Andrea Lisi at Equita.

Andrea Lisi

analyst
#16

The first one is on what should we expect for the future? Clearly, we know that you have not provided the guidance is given the start of the offer on TIM. But just looking at consensus that that is pointing on are kind of EUR 3.8 billion of EBIT adjusted at '28, clearly, on the current perimeter. How do you feel about this? And so if the trajectory and visiting car concession is something that makes you comfortable? And especially with regard to the evolution of the NII, you have indicated that now you expect total portfolio return at EUR 2.8 billion, clearly, we have seen the increase in rate that provides a positive contribution to NII. Just wondering if is it possible to expect some kind of, let's say, capital loss on trading, just the portfolio and have a further boost on NII in next -- over the next years. Then the second question is on just to understand how much -- how many of the new clients that you have -- you're gaining in energy comes -- are coming from the network of TIMs, so to understand how this is working. And every last you can provide us more color on the strategy regarding [indiscernible] and the opportunities that could come here.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#17

Please, Camillo.

Camillo Greco

executive
#18

Okay. Andrea, I'll start with your first question, which is around the guidance. Obviously, we cannot at this stage comment or provide guidance on beyond what has already been disclosed. There is a consensus out there, which has been prepared independently by analysts, if you were to ask us what we think about that consensus, what we can -- how much we can stretch out is that we can probably say that we believe that, that consensus is broadly reflects a trajectory for the stand-alone business without getting specific on any year. But we feel it broadly reflects the ability of the business to grow. So that's, I think, the first point.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#19

Sorry, Camillo. With the only caveat that consensus obviously doesn't include what we have announced today. And specifically the CDP agreement and the potential capital optimization in the financial services.

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#20

Yes. And separately, you had a question about active portfolio management NII and I think that you're saying whether the fact that rates are going to be higher, might or may not translate into capital losses. I think, first of all, this stage does not scenario, but I just want to sort of emphasize that we run our portfolio on a total return. If as an example, the rates go up by some 100 basis points. We have the portfolio that performs more in terms of NII, but we have the capital gains that go up, and then there is the opposite trend, obviously, in the other direction. So we think about it as total portfolio return and we committed to investors into equity analysts to a total portfolio return then [indiscernible] is a function of where we are in the life cycle of the range. Then there was -- yes, then there was a question about what's the contribution of a team in terms of daily new intakes in terms of subscriptions on energy. And roughly speaking, we are any day between 200 and 300 net new clients as new clients and around 500 or so generated by TIM. And then there was another question on the PSN. Did I get it right, Andrea your question of [indiscernible]?

Andrea Lisi

analyst
#21

Correct. Yes.

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#22

Can you repeat the question.

Andrea Lisi

analyst
#23

sOrry, it was just if you can provide some color on the strategy regarding the post regional and any indication that provide you can provide on the opportunities coming from this could be helpful.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#24

I think a bit premature, Andrea, but it's a good question because it is clearly an opportunity, and we will support the team as the reference shareholder. We are in the process of buying the 20% stake of the PSN from CDP. And that project has been a very successful team, Leonard did a great job in moving almost 800 public administration into cloud, and we believe that journey has to carry on supporting those public administration using the data into cloud and change their processes, increasing process and operations, increasing efficiency. So that's an important chapter that team will try to support them in the evolution of the PSN. Okay. Thank you, Andrea. Next question is from Elena Perini, Banca Imi.

Elena Perini

analyst
#25

Yes. I've got one question on because I think that you illustrated very, very well in your presentation, all the opportunities that you see from an extensive use and basically the integration of AI in your platform and then business. On the other hand, do you see any potential risk on this also in terms of potential cannibalization some clients of yours, for example, the low-profile ones? And then a further clarification because I heard from the previous question that the Danish compromise was mentioned, but I had a problem on my line. So I didn't understood well the answer. I suppose that in the footnote on Page 8, regarding the allocation of PosteVita stake to BancoPosta, when you mentioned subject to change in law, you are referring to this to the Danish Square compromise due to the fact that I imagine that you are not willing to ask for a banking license. Is it correct? And how do you think to get out a banking license.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#26

Okay. I'll take -- the AI maybe we can take this offline, but I need to understand better what you mean with cannibalization of clients. I mean we see it coming, and with or without Poste, it will change a lot the habits of our client base. So we want to be in the driving seat in the flow of change. What -- just to give you maybe a feel and I refer in my presentation about agents taking more decision and supporting clients. One clear example is what is happening already in outside Italy, where you have e-commerce supported by LLN, so as supposed to go on an e-commerce platform, you have an interface in between you as a consumer and the different platforms that does all the services and client -- and sorry, and product selection for you. So obviously, we start from a position of strength because we have the client. We have the digital client flow and connection. We have payments. We have logistics. And if you put an engine talking to that client. And then on behalf of the client screening all the best options in the different marketplaces, you could probably see in the next 3 to 5 years, a different landscape. And just one idea of how things can change in a very important digital space like the one of e-commerce. No intention whatsoever on your second question of asking for a banking client, banking license. We're not a bank and will never be a bank with a banking license. We are not even in the space of the Danish compromise. Basically, it's just a follow through a technical follow-through of the fact that if you put all the risk of your financial legal entities under one single umbrella. You clearly can show to the regulator, and we are subject to risk control by Bank of Italy, that become easier and more predictable from the regulatory standpoint. So that streamline risk management impact of our Phase 1 and 2 together allows the regulator allows the state to change the capital absorption parameters that we currently have. and that would release additional capital, and that would allow us to basically take more risk on our balance sheet down the road. And increase obviously our NII. Okay. Next question is from Michael Huttner Berenberg.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#27

I had quick 3 questions. One on the tender. And I know -- I don't know how to ask it, but I'm not -- I don't understand these things well, but the -- so TIM Game affirmed this opinion. We've presumed which was dated on a certain date and considered the share price, et cetera, on a certain date. Is there any sensitivity to that? In other words, if the share prices of either entity changes a lot, do they -- can they revise it? And it's just -- I have no idea how it is. The second one is actually slide criticism. You know in your reorganization instead of 4 divisions, you have to I'm really sad for the guys who are running the currently running 4 divisions and 2 of them will disappear. Are you going to lose a lot of kind of what I would call dynamism, whatever it is by having more centralization, 1 person running 3 things rather than 1 see people, I think 3 things, because you have such valuable wonderful people in your company. And then the last one is the 303% solvency. Can you give us a little bit of a forward-looking -- I can't have forward-looking. But anyway, just on the last EUR 500 million payment, where would that be?

Matteo del Fante

executive
#28

Okay. On the tender, there is no correlation in between price level and willingness to change our -- we have stated specific terms at which Poste is buying team shares and paying those shares with a specific amount of specific number of posted shares plus cash, and that conversion rate and cash, which are the 2 only numbers that count will -- are fixed until the end of the offer. By law, once we close the offer, let's assume we get to our threshold, we accepted, we closed the offer by law for the following 6 months post will not be allowed to buy shares in the market at a higher price than the one at which we closed the offer because if we do buy at a higher price, we would need to recognize to all participants in the tender, the same increase in pricing, okay? That's called the best price rule that applies 6 months after closing of the offer. And before I let Camillo answer on Solvency II on your 4 to 2. No, Michael, quite the opposite. It's a good question. But we believe that having one single leadership allows genuine client-centric drive into the firm. At the end of the day, the 2 units that are falling into the banking 1 are an ancillary unit payments, payments are not to be considered and no financial institution actually is managing payments as a separate business unit. We were quite unique when we created this business unit back in 2018. And it worked very well for the 8 years we leave but put yourself in the shoes of a client. You want to have a banking connection. And that banking connection is one. And that backing connection is to give you services. And services are made by a current account are made buy an app, are made by debit card, made by prepay card. And so we want to serve the client the best possible way. I announced in my speech that we will come up in 2027 with a new product serving clients in a combined fashion, there are many very good examples in the market away from us. They are gaining market share. with this approach. And it's -- I think it's needed. And taking -- looking at the second element of the insurance. The insurance from a client standpoint is a saving tool which fits to postal savings, that sit next to funds that are managed by our asset management company. So it's just one product that the bank offers in terms of saving options to clients. And so one unique leadership is going to do us very well.

Camillo Greco

executive
#29

And with regards to the question on solvency, we accrue on a quarterly basis the dividend from PosteVita to Poste Italiane, remind everyone, we have a 100% payout ratio there. Whereas you said, we only account for the capital distribution at the end of the year, so the EUR 303 million does not reflect the last EUR 500 million, which will be paid in 2027 on 2026 P&L of PosteVita and the impact of that should be in the order of intended to have percentage points on the solvency, which need to be deducted from EUR 303 million obviously.

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#30

Okay. Next question is from [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#31

Two questions from my side. The first one is on the investment flows and postal savings. The net investment flows materially increased in the first half of this year with an acceleration in the second quarter. Postal savings outflows was at the lowest level in the last 5 years. So could you please elaborate on what are the drivers of such an acceleration are and what we may expect in the second half of this year, ahead of the new distribution agreement with CDP. And in relation to that, could you please provide some details on how this agreement works what has changed compared with the past, allowing you to cash in EUR 100 million of additional revenues. What we should look going forward that the stock of the postal savings on net gross inflows so every detail -- any detail would be very helpful. The second question is on the financial hub. You clearly defined the scope of your new financial hub and provided some indication about the potential benefits in terms of NII. I would like to know if you can help us quantifying the potential benefits also in terms of cross-selling and capital that we may expect. And what is the timing of such benefit?

Camillo Greco

executive
#32

Yes, I'll start with the CDP agreement. Obviously, the terms are consistent in general [indiscernible] with greater performance in terms of a reduction of net outflows of Poste Italiane is with the customer base that it manages and the lower that net outflows are the higher performance. I'd also say that there are a number of investments, which are required also from a, let's say, a technical standpoint and advertising and promotion standpoint, which should lead to that performance of a team of both parties involved in the commercial agreements, so both CDP and Poste to reduce as much as possible outflows throughout the time period covered and there is, let me say, degrading scale, whereas the more how to go in the contract, the lower are expected to be the outflow. And with regards to the second question, which was on the financial hub, yes, it is absolutely clear, and I think it was partly answered by what Matteo said to [indiscernible] that we believe that the benefit of the financial hub is, first and foremost, to serve better our customer base. And yes, we do have an expectation that will translate into greater revenues for the division as not to sort of say anything that is controversial. If we have more than 20 million cards and a bunch of guys who have the car with us don't have a bank account with us, it's pretty obvious to everyone that we want to take advantage of that customer base in a more comprehensive way. So that's really what we are aiming there. And yes, there's going to be more on this initiative early in 2027. And last point with regards to capital release or capital efficiency, I want to call it, that obviously is what is going to drive in Phase I a bit more NII as there's going to be more capital we can put at work. And I think I had the answer to that question saying that we believe that the Phase 1 associated upside only from NII was in a couple of tens of millions. But obviously, in addition to that, there is the impact of reduction combined workforce, which has been already mentioned, and then the upside on greater core selling should crystalize into greater revenues for the division.

Giuseppe Esposito

executive
#33

Okay. We will finish off with a few questions from the webcast platform. The first one is very easy to answer. We have a question from after [indiscernible] asking how we plan to finance the cash portion of the Telecom Vitera deal. Well, I mean we have already secured financing from PolarBanks. They provided the cash confirmation letter the context of the offering document, and there is no planning for hybrid bond. The second question is from [indiscernible]. The question is, if a DPS for 2026 in the range of 1.2 to 1.3 is reasonable. I think we have paid last year 1.25, we will certainly have a 2026 dividend higher than 2025. The last question is for our CEO, I believe. Can you comment on the importance of post securing an adequate take-up rate for the Telecom Italia offer? And whether this is a concern given that the offer term reflect a premium of only 9%.

Matteo del Fante

executive
#34

I think the 9% is the preannouncement premium. So if you go to Page 15, yes, you find the 9% mentioned in the question. But I think Camillo explained very well on that page that the market has priced the transaction and the proposed transaction, and that 9% is now EUR 31.4 million. So you see on the right, the relative performance of TIM domestic versus in Brazil versus telco and even versus the Italian stock index. So I think the premium today is certainly more than -- I mean, certainly [indiscernible]. It's got more than average. It's very important for us for to secure a very high take-up. No question. And in say that the Board has been appointed just a couple of months ago with a 3-year time horizon. So this is a journey for us. We have started buying the first 10% from CDP back in February last year, we then increase our stake progressively. We then launched the tender by Italian law, if we reach the 50% threshold, and we decide to accept a lower than 67%. We are allowed to buy in the market without any obligation to launch a tender any amount in any time after the 6 months of best price rule limit that I mentioned before. So for us, we have all the time and patience to work on this. And as you heard today, the post stand-alone trajectory is extremely solid, and we will go ahead on our route very -- anyway and wait for the right opportunity and window to complete the team transaction over time. There are no other questions. So thank you all very much for joining us today.

Camillo Greco

executive
#35

Thank you, all.

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