Sabre Corporation (SABR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Sabre's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Rithika, and I'll be your operator. As a reminder, please note, today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Jim Mathias. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter 2026 earnings call. This morning, we issued an earnings press release, which is available on our website at investors.sabre.com. A slide presentation, which accompanies today's prepared remarks, is also available during this call on the Sabre Investor Relations web page. A replay of today's call will be available on our website later this morning. We advise you that our comments contain forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events, including results of our growth strategies, our AI offerings and AI-related developments in the industry, transactions and bookings growth, expectations regarding the Middle East conflict and recovery as well as the impact of other geopolitical events, commercial and strategic arrangements, our financial guidance, outlook and expectations, pro forma financial information, free cash flow and liquidity, among others. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made on today's conference call. More information on these risks and uncertainties is contained in our earnings release issued this morning and our SEC filings, including our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Throughout today's call, we will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. References during today's call to adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, normalized adjusted EBITDA, normalized adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted technology and adjusted SG&A expenses have been adjusted to exclude certain items. The most directly comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations for non-GAAP measures are available in the earnings release and other documents posted on our website at investors.sabre.com. Normalized amounts have been adjusted for estimated costs historically allocated to our Hospitality Solutions business, which was sold on July 3, 2025. We are also presenting certain financial information on a pro forma basis to give effect to the sale of the Hospitality Solutions business. Unless otherwise noted, results presented are based on continuing operations. As a reminder, effective last quarter we updated the terminology used to describe our revenue to better reflect our evolving brand identity and market positioning. Historically referred to as distribution and IT solutions, these revenue streams have been renamed, marketplace and airline technology, respectively. The specific revenue from products, services and underlying solutions offered in each category remain unchanged. Participating with me today are Kurt Ekert, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Randolfi, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I will turn the call over to Kurt.

Thanks, Jim. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. In the second quarter, we delivered results ahead of our expectations and generated positive free cash flow. Importantly, with the strength we've seen in the first half of this year, and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are increasing our full year 2026 guidance for both pro forma adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and we are reaffirming our outlook for revenue and air distribution bookings growth. Revenue in Q2 grew 4% and normalized adjusted EBITDA grew 19% year-on-year to $151 million, exceeding our expectations. Air Distribution bookings growth in the quarter came in ahead of our outlook, up 1% year-on-year. We are encouraged by the continued momentum we are seeing from our growth strategies. Since late 2025, Sabre's rate of bookings growth is outpacing the broader industry by approximately 600 basis points. Second quarter air distribution bookings trends were better than expected, driven by a modest recovery in the month of June. The trends we saw in June have continued through July and are reflected in our full year outlook. Consistent with what we shared during our first quarter earnings call regarding conflict-related headwinds in the month of March, Air Distribution bookings growth remained positive throughout the second quarter in both North and South America. That strength was partially offset by continued impacts from the Middle East conflict as well as higher fuel prices, which have driven airline fare increases. We estimate that the global impact of fuel and the Middle East conflict was 300 to 400 basis points in the second quarter and was relatively more acute in EMEA and Asia Pacific. Importantly, corporate volumes, which represent nearly half of our marketplace bookings demonstrated continued steady performance and resilience throughout the second quarter, which offset softness in leisure demand. Looking ahead, the underlying assumptions for our growth outlook have not changed. We expect third quarter air distribution bookings growth of flat to low single digits. For the fourth quarter, and consistent with our prior outlook as well as recent airline commentary, we expect bookings to grow at a low to mid-single-digit rate year-on-year. Now turning to Slide 5. For the fourth consecutive quarter, we delivered double-digit year-on-year growth in normalized adjusted EBITDA. We believe these results and positive trends set us up well to continue to drive year-on-year top line and pro forma adjusted EBITDA growth for the remainder of the year and achieve our increased outlook. Our financial performance provides us with a foundation to continue investing in innovation and supporting our growth strategies. Turning to the right side of the slide. We believe Sabre is positioned to be a winner in the rapidly emerging agentic AI travel channel, and we are working with partners and leaning into our leadership position by increasing the level of investment in AI initiatives. Our marketplace continues to deliver multisource travel content at an incredible scale. Hotel related revenue growth accelerated in Q2 to 11% year-on-year, driven by higher attach rate and continued growth in media revenue. Our hotel attach rate has improved to approximately 35%. As we continue to enhance our hotel platform, we expect to drive higher conversion. Payment Suite gross spend exceeded $6 billion in the second quarter, up more than 30% year-on-year and is now over $25 billion on an annualized basis. NDC also continues to grow and we expect further acceleration during 2026. Turning to Slide 6. Our key financial and operational metrics demonstrate that we are executing well and delivering broad-based growth. Across our business, we continue to see positive trends, reflecting the disciplined execution of our strategy and the progress we are making against our long-term priorities. Moving to Slide 7. Our developer ecosystem continues to expand. Hundreds of developers are now working in our production environment, reinforcing Sabre's position as the critical infrastructure provider powering the next generation of travel commerce. Agentic AI is no longer just a future opportunity. It is transforming how travel is bought and serviced and Sabre is leading that evolution. Our open platform enables AI agents to shop, book and service travel autonomously, securely and at scale. As the ecosystem develops and adoption accelerates across the industry, we believe Sabre is uniquely positioned to build on our leadership position as we enter this next chapter of travel technology. We recently deployed our model context protocol server with a global enterprise loyalty and travel service company. MCP acts as a secure intelligent translation layer that lets AI agents handle complex servicing work on their own. Ticket reissues, exchanges and itinerary changes. Driven by strong demand for our agentic KPIs and MCP server, we doubled the number of active pilot and production partners from 30 to 60 in the second quarter. We also partnered with Voca Bridge and Deep Learning AI, part of the broader AI fund ecosystem and hosted a Hackathon in Silicon Valley. The response was positive and exceeded our expectations. More than 400 developers participated and submitted over 100 projects built on our agentic KPIs and MCP server. The solutions they built from voice-enabled travel assistance to agents that can seamlessly coordinate flights, hotels, rideshares and dining, built into a single itinerary demonstrate the power and flexibility of our platform. Importantly, they serve as examples of the growing developer interest in building on Sabre's infrastructure and reinforce our foundational position in enabling the next generation of agentic AI-powered travel. We are making solid progress across our strategic priorities and believe we are well positioned to deliver sustainable, long-term growth. Across air expansion, airline technology, lodging expansion and payments, we are executing our strategy, delivering meaningful value for our customers and investing in innovation that further strengthens our competitive position. We are excited with the momentum in airline technology, and I'm pleased to share that a notable carrier in Africa has selected Sabre as its new technology platform provider. As part of this agreement, the airline will migrate its core passenger services to the Sabre platform and adopt our Sabre Mosaic and CIT capabilities. This transition will help modernize key areas of the airline's operations and implementation is expected to be completed by the end of this year. Our progress together with our strong first half performance supports our updated 2026 guidance and increases our confidence in the significant opportunities ahead. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike to walk through our second quarter financial results and our outlook in more detail.

Thanks, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. PAUSE Please turn to Slide 9. Second quarter revenue, gross profit, normalized adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow all exceeded our expectations. As a result, and based on our current outlook, which is consistent with our prior view for the second half of 2026, we are reaffirming our full year guidance for revenue and air distribution bookings growth and increasing our full year guidance for both pro forma adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Turning to the financials. Total revenue was $712 million, an increase of 4% year-on-year, exceeding our expectations of flat to nominal growth. Marketplace revenue grew $31 million, an increase of 6% due to a 1.5% increase in distribution bookings and a 4% increase in average booking fee, which includes growth from our payments and media offerings. Airline Technology revenue was $135 million, broadly in line with our expectations. Second quarter revenue reflected the timing of certain items that can create normal quarter-to-quarter variability. We continue to expect growth in passengers boarded in future quarters. As a result, we expect Airline Technology revenue of $140 million to $150 million per quarter in Q3 and Q4 and continue to expect year-on-year revenue growth in 2026. Gross margin of 57.1% came in at the high end of our 56% to 57% range due primarily to favorability in our average booking fee driven by bookings mix, and revenue growth in higher-margin payments and media products. Second quarter normalized adjusted EBITDA was $151 million, a 19% increase year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 272 basis points to 21.2%. Free cash flow was positive $10 million for the second quarter. Importantly, our expectation for full year free cash flow has improved to approximately negative $65 million from negative $70 million. As a reminder, the negative free cash flow this year is driven almost entirely by approximately $60 million of restructuring costs associated with our inflation offset program. Absent these restructuring costs, we would expect near breakeven free cash flow. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $697 million. Moving to Slide 10. Air Distribution bookings grew 1% and exceeded expectations despite the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and higher fuel prices on global travel demand. Revenue growth of 4% exceeded our guidance of flat to nominal. Our normalized adjusted EBITDA result of $151 million was favorable to our guide of approximately $130 million by $21 million. Approximately 2/3 of this outperformance is attributable to higher gross income, which was driven by a higher average booking fee and higher air distribution bookings. The remainder is driven by timing of technology investments, which will now occur in the second half of the year. All in, we are pleased with this quarter's results. Turning to Slide 11. We have signed an agreement with our existing lenders to extend our AR securitization facility through September 2029. As a result of this agreement and our previous refinancing activities, we now have no maturities until 2029. Moving to Slide 12, an outlook for 2026. We are increasing our outlook for full year pro forma adjusted EBITDA to approximately $600 million and free cash flow to approximately negative $65 million. While our forecast for full year air distribution bookings revenue growth, gross margin and operating expenses remain largely unchanged, we do expect to trend slightly more favorably than prior expectations on gross margin, driving the increased adjusted EBITDA guide. We are increasing our outlook for CapEx by $10 million. Looking at adjusted technology expense, we continue to expect a low single-digit increase year-on-year. Adjusted technology expense is expected to be higher in the second half of the year as compared to the first half of the year due to a shift in timing of investments. Taken together, our total investment in technology in the second half will be higher due to additional investment in product development, including AI, Sabre Mosaic and lodging. With our increased pro forma adjusted EBITDA guidance, updated CapEx outlook and approximately $5 million of higher cash interest due to the May 2026 refinancing of our exchangeable notes, our expectation for full year free cash flow has increased by $5 million to approximately negative $65 million. On to Slide 13 and our expectation for the third and fourth quarters. As Kurt mentioned, the trends we saw in June continued through July. Based on our current outlook, we anticipate third quarter air distribution bookings and revenue to grow in the flat to low single-digit range and fourth quarter air distribution bookings and revenue to grow at a low to mid-single-digit pace year-on-year. We expect our third and fourth quarter gross margin to be towards the higher end of our 56% to 57% range due to the continuation of favorable trends experienced in the first half of the year. As I discussed previously, we expect adjusted technology expense to be higher in the second half of this year as compared to the first half of this year. We expect adjusted SG&A expense to be roughly flat in the second half of the year when compared to the first half of the year. For the third quarter, with guidance of flat to low single-digit growth in air distribution bookings, gross margin at the higher end of our range, the sequential increase in adjusted technology expense and roughly flat SG&A expense sequentially we expect normalized adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $155 million. For the fourth quarter, with guidance of low to mid-single-digit growth in air distribution bookings, and similar expectations for gross margin and operating expense versus the third quarter, we anticipate normalized adjusted EBITDA of approximately $125 million. Touching on free cash flow. We expect similar trends in operating cash flow in the third quarter as compared to the second quarter, excluding the impact of interest payments. As a reminder, within the website financials available on our Investor Relations website, we provide a quarterly interest walk. The schedule provides our expected quarterly cash interest payments. In the third quarter, we expect roughly $20 million of higher interest payments versus the second quarter. In total, for the second half of the year, we expect to generate approximately $80 million of free cash flow, primarily in the fourth quarter. We are pleased with our second quarter and the first half results. With our increased outlook for both full year pro forma adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, we believe we are well positioned for sustained growth and free cash flow generation going forward. And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Our first question comes from the line of Jack Halpert of Cantor Fitzgerald.

First one, I wanted to double-click a little bit on the airline tech being down a little year-over-year. I know you mentioned some quarter-over-quarter variability, down kind of a one-off. One, can you just kind of explain a bit more about what this is? And then I know last quarter, you talked a little bit about Amadeus potentially acting anti competitively here. I was wondering if maybe that could have something to do with it or what you're seeing there in terms of what they're doing? And then just a second question on AI. We have been booking earlier this week that they're participating in some tests with Google and kind of potential agentic travel, checkout and AI mode on search. I was curious what you're hearing from partners about the potential for leading kind of AI labs to pursue this strategy, which maybe I think back in April, there was some news flow that they were stepping away and going more on commerce. I think you guys have said kind of the same thing. So just thoughts there.

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jack. On airline technology, first, I would just highlight that $135 million for the quarter was exactly in line with our expectations. The thing to keep in mind for that line item, about half of the revenue is driven by PBs. The other half is driven by other earnings constructs, primarily things like license fees and other performance deliverables. And so it can fluctuate a fair bit quarter-to-quarter. And it just happens that there's less of that license fee revenue and performance deliverables now planned and scheduled in that quarter. Our overall perspective on the business is very much the same. We expect that will be in the $140 million to $150 million range in Q3, Q4. We expect that we'll have year-over-year growth for airline technology overall. And we are very optimistic as we move into 2027.

With respect to Amadeus' behavior in the market, the concerns that we raised previously still exist. Specifically, we believe that Amadeus is leveraging a dominant position in passenger service system, or PSS, to exclude alternative providers in the separate emerging market for offer order settlement and delivery or OOSD. We have 4 specific concerns here that limit airline choice and also constrained information in the market for OOSD. Number one is the restriction on airlines access to their own data. Number two is limitations on API access required for interoperability with Amadeus PSS. Number three is unfair or high integration costs; and number four is prolonged integration delays. Now the victims in this situation are airlines and travelers. By comparison, our approach is centered on openness and modularity where we enable airlines to modernize and evolve their retailing capabilities without being locked into a single vertically integrated stack. And to summarize this, the industry is looking for the industry to modernize for airlines to deserve equal and unequivocal access to best-in-breed modular, open AI-first cloud solutions and Sabre is marching down this path. Now the second question with respect to AI or agentic AI specifically, we've spoken previously, we believe that agentic will emerge as a distribution channel that's very material within the travel industry. What you're seeing near term is a focus by most of the large agentic platforms on enterprise following, for example, with Anthropic or OpenAI are doing less of a focus near term on consumer as they pivot to consumer, the first focus, we believe, will be retail e-commerce because it's the largest transaction category, but then they will go to travel thereafter. When you look at travel specifically, what we've heard from the larger tech players is that they're seeking a solution that is basically an end-to-end experience for the consumer where they say captive to that platform for the entire experience. With Sabre specifically, as we think about AI, we're investing aggressively to unlock what we believe will both be efficiency and revenue growth opportunities for the company. We believe we're going to win for the following reasons. We have a multisource platform and we have recent agentic AI investments where we're uniquely positioned to serve as the critical infrastructure layer for AI agents, powering the next generation of travel commerce. We were the first to market, and we have had significant engagement with developers with now over 60 active pilot production partners utilizing our agentic APIs and our MCP server. So we're really excited for the future of agentic AI. The timing on this because of the behavior of the large agentic players is uncertain, but the opportunity is large.