Scales Corporation Limited (SCL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 24, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorThank you for standing by, and welcome to the Scales Corporation half year results conference call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Andy Borland, Managing Director. Please go ahead, sir.
Andrew Borland
executiveGood morning, all. I'd like to welcome you to the Scales half year results announcement for the 6 months ending 30 June 2021. With me today is Steve Kennelly, our CFO. Earlier this morning, we lodged our results with the NZX, which included a presentation pack and we'll base our comments on this call. Steve and I'll run through the slides and we'll take questions. On agenda, we'll move on to Slide 2 showing the agenda. And moving to Slide 4 and some first half financial and operational highlights for the group. Despite a period with the significant challenges, we're extremely pleased to report a half year underlying NPAT of $33.3 million and an underlying EBITDA of $54.8 million, up 15.4% and 11%, respectively, on the prior period. Please note that we've amended the definition of underlying in line with current market practice so that it now includes the effects of NZ IFRS 16 leases. Steve will touch on this in more detail later. The reported NPAT was $32.6 million, up 17.5%. Scales Logistics has continued to prove its strategic worth managing to procure sufficient containers to allow its customers to export their product. This was a significant achievement in the current supply chain environment. Mr Apple made an extraordinary effort to pick and pack its harvest despite uncertainties around labor Its forecast export volume of 3.6 million TCEs was affected by inclement weather during the key growing period. However, to date, it's achieved strong prices on those volumes. There was continued strong demand within Food Ingredients with increased volumes resulting in an excellent outcome for the period. I'll touch on each of the divisions in more detail shortly. Moving on to an update on both COVID-19 and sustainability. The subtitle of slide says it all. Without our team, we wouldn't be able to operate either in or out of lockdown. So the safety of our people was our primary priority. As has previously been the case, our businesses are privileged to be classed as essential and so have continued to operate during this current lockdown. Whilst picking and packing of our harvest was completed prior to the lockdown announcement, our pandemic preparedness policies once again showed -- allowed the remainder of our business operations to transition smoothly to lockdown procedures. Notwithstanding the current situation, COVID-19 protocols had remained in place throughout the apple harvest and packing season. This included procedures such as increased sanitation levels, gloves and masks. However, we expect disruption to domestic and international operations to continue, including labor availability, global supply -- global markets and supply chains. We've continued to focus on environmental matters together with the health and safety of our team members and market regulations. In terms of environmental projects, we're nearing the end of our carbon sequestration project in respect of apple tree plants -- plantings with Auckland University of Technology, AUT. We've seen some pleasing results and look forward to sharing more details of this in our annual report. The health and safety of our team continues to be of the highest importance, particularly given the recent COVID-19 outbreak. It's imperative that our people feel safe -- feel they are safe when coming to work. Projects that we've worked on over the last 6 months included a pilot scheme with a number of industry participants, WorkSafe and ACC to develop a multidisciplinary approach to injury prevention and reduction during the peak harvest period and mental well-being strategies to support team members at all levels. Mental welfare is as important to us as physical health, and we're keen to ensure there's a culture of overall well-being within our businesses. Meeting or exceeding market and customer requirements for food safety continues to be imperative to our businesses, and we're pleased to be asked to take part in the pilot project with MPI and others to develop a prototype digital supply chain. This with the aim of helping MPI build an end-to-end digital supply chain, allowing projects to be tracked and traced. We also continue to ensure compliance with relevant certifications and audits and recently completed the China customs audit, ensuring continued access to China markets. I'll now pass over to Steve to discuss the financial results for the first half of the year.
Steve Kennelly
executiveThanks, Andy. Turning to Slide 9 and our group financial performance. As Andy previously noted, group underlying NPAT for the first 6 months to 30 June 2021 was $33.3 million with underlying EBITDA of $54.8 million. As shown in the table on this slide, we've included the effects of NZ IFRS 16 leases within our underlying results, and this is in line with current market practice and we've restated our comparative figures accordingly. Also shown on this slide is the reconciliation of our underlying earnings to our reported results. And I'd also refer everyone to Appendix 1 of the presentation for a more detailed reconciliation of the effect of IFRS 16, both on NPAT and on EBITDA. At a high level, for the half year, the effect of IFRS 16 is to add $5.5 million to underlying EBITDA, but to reduce underlying NPAT by $200,000. Moving on to Slide 10. You'll see a summary of our divisional performance, highlighting the excellent results achieved by our Horticulture and Food Ingredients divisions. As Andy mentioned earlier, the Horticulture division benefited from strong prices on lower export volumes, resulting in a 2.9% increase in underlying EBITDA. Maintaining diversified markets and varieties has assisted the division to achieve this result. Food Ingredients continued to benefit from increased pet food demand together with changes in its product mix and margin, resulting in an increase of $5.1 million in underlying EBITDA. Unfortunately, Logistics was affected by lower export volumes, particularly stone fruit. However, its strategic value is difficult to quantify, and Andy will touch on this again later. Turning to our balance sheet on Slide 11. Our financial position remains strong. Whilst net cash decreased by $16.8 million to $38 million, this was primarily due to 2 factors: CapEx spend, including investment in our new Whakatu cool store and ongoing Orchard redevelopment together with other projects; and an increase in working capital, specifically Food Ingredients inventories due to shipping delays at overseas ports. The value of our agricultural produce inventory at 30 June 2021 compared to the prior year remained steady. Whilst there was a lower volume of unsold crop at balance date, it was valued at a higher price compared to the prior year. As noted on the slide, around 27% of fruit remains to be sold as at today's date. I'll now hand you back to Andy, who will give you a further update on each division.
Andrew Borland
executiveThanks, Steve. Turning to Slide 13. As previously mentioned, the Horticulture division delivered a strong result despite being impacted by a shortage of skilled RSE workforce as well as increased labor and shipping costs. The RSE scheme is incredibly important not only to the Horticulture division, but also to the industry as a whole. Mr Apple employed approximately 14% less RSE workers over the key February to April harvest period compared to 2020. But we're pleased to be able to supplement our workforce with New Zealanders and Working Holiday Scheme workers. We're extremely grateful to the entire Mr Apple team for their extraordinary effort to pick, pack and export this year's harvest. At our ASM, Tim Goodacre noted the vital role that RSE workers have played in enabling our overall company growth. A 37% increase in RSE workers over the period 2012 to 2020 has helped Mr Apple to increase its permanent staff numbers by 111%. Also the skills acquired and wages earned are highly beneficial to RSE workers, the Whanau and their home communities, and we're delighted to support the recent announcement by the government to allow additional workers into New Zealand from selected Pacific communities. Whilst continuation of the RSE scheme continues to be critical to our operations, the overall landscape around the availability and cost of labor has changed. We believe efficiency in returns can be improved through automation. And as a result, we've commenced a 10-year investment in automation plan at Mr Apple. Our initial focus is on post-harvest activities with the first step being the commissioning of our new Whakatu cool store earlier this year. The cool store is already delivering a number of efficiencies, including reduced power consumption; decreasing the double handling of fruit, which lowers the amount of fruit damage as well as labor cost; and reduction in transportation costs and carbon emissions. The next stage of our plan is to fully automate the Whakatu packhouse, a 3- to 4-year project, that will significantly increase labor productivity, reduce the number of human touch points and potentially lead to 24/7 packing, allowing greater freight and labor efficiency. On-Orchard automation and technology solutions are also actively being monitored and considered and these are likely to follow the packhouse upgrade project. Turning to Slide 15 and details. Mr Apple's volumes. As mentioned, this year's crop was affected by inclement weather during the key growing season, resulting in a lower own grown volume of around 3.6 million TCEs. Our export packout is approximately 73%, also slightly lower than last year's rate of 76%, with our equipment efficiently grading the fruit for export. Importantly, nonexport grade fruit does not go to waste for the sold domestically, juice for Profruit or sold for further processing. Premium variety volumes continued to grow with a 9% increase compared to last year, and there was considerable growth in the sales of our new premium Dazzle and Posy apples. There was a drop in volumes of traditional varieties this year due to a combination of our planned redevelopment program and weather impacts. Moving to Slide 16. As in previous years, our strategy of varietal, geographical and channel diversification proved to be a benefit during a period of worldwide uncertainty. To date, the Asia and Middle East markets and U.K. markets have been positive. The European market has been impacted by the lower volumes from traditional varieties available, but a lower European crop is expected to both improve and lengthen the season for us. Pricing has remained firm with prices being achieved that are mainly above or in line with last year. And Fern Ridge Fresh continues to ship a pleasing level of alternative products, including kiwifruit and pears. Moving to Slide 17. The Horticulture division continues to build its branding and marketing strategies with one of its strategies being to maximize its appeal to consumers as well as wholesalers and retailers, particularly in the Asia and Middle East markets. Some initiatives Mr Apple has implemented are noted on this slide, including increased social media, increased store promotions and packaging innovations to appeal to consumer -- customers, as shown in the photos. This has proven to be successful with their retail, e-commerce and omni or multichannel sales accounting for a significant 76% of China sales in 2020. To support these channels, our flagship TMALL store is now operational and selling a range of Mr Apple products directly to China consumers and sales of Dazzle also being made through selective high-end Chinese retailers such as Hema. This -- moving to Slide 18. The next slide demonstrates some of the social media activity carried out by our marketing team. Mr Apple has a presence on a variety of social media platforms across Asia and has been undertaking campaign since May that are designed to build our brand with consumers. These campaigns are expected to run through to September. Moving on to the Food Ingredients division on Slide 19. Food Ingredients experienced another strong performance in the first 6 months of the year with 46% increase in profitability. Together with increases in volumes sold compared to the same period last year, the division benefited from changes in product mix and margin within the individual business operations. Our Australian operations were somewhat affected by the publicized supply chain issues. However, our geographical diversification again proved to be advantageous, which shall be benefiting from having a domestic customer base. Whilst Profruit also encountered supply chain difficulties for its export sales, strong domestic sales helped -- largely helped to offset these effects. Turning to Logistics on Slide 20. The current domestic and global supply chain issues have been widely reported and Scales Logistics was not immune to these problems. However, an exceptional effort by Kent Ritchie and his team procure sufficient refrigerated containers for their Horticulture and other primary sector customers, ensured the successful shipping of all harvests. The team's expertise continues to pay dividends for all our customers. Whilst there is a slight decrease in earnings for the division primarily due to reduced volumes of agricultural exports, the strategic value of the business far outweighs any financial benefit. Given the likelihood of ongoing supply chain disruptions having expertly managed and dedicated international freight services business is expected to be highly advantageous. Lastly, moving on to the full year outlook on Slide 22. Following on a strong first half period, we're pleased to report that we've upgraded our previously advised guidance for the full year. We now anticipate that our full year underlying net profit will be between $32 million and $37 million, inclusive of the effect of NZ IFRS 16 leases. This implies an underlying EBITDA range of between $65 million and $72 million, also inclusive of the effect of NZ IFRS 16. We expect that the Horticulture division will experience ongoing disruptions in global markets and logistics, together with difficulties around the availability and cost of labor. However, as mentioned, we've commenced a significant investment in automation and technology in order to increase efficiency throughout the business. A positive full year performance is expected from Food Ingredients. Whilst we incurred significant transaction costs following an unsuccessful acquisition of Villa Maria, we continue to proactively seek and review potential investment opportunities. We believe we're well positioned to take advantage of opportunities although we'll continue to proceed with caution in the current business environment. Looking forward further, we expect the '22 financial year will continue to feel the effects of COVID and particularly in respect of the availability in cost of global supply chain logistics. We will obviously continue to monitor this situation and develop strategies to minimize its impact. That concludes today's formal presentation. Although, we would point you towards Appendix 1 of the presentation pack, which provides additional financial information and reconciles underlying earnings to reported earnings for each of our divisions as well as the group. We're happy now to take questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Guy Hooper of Forsyth Barr.
Guy Edward Hooper
analystSteve and Andy, congrats on a strong result in what must have been a pretty challenging period. I guess the first question for me is just around margin expectations. I mean, at the full year result for FY '20, you had a chart of EBIT margin and sort of outlook. And this year, the adjusted EBIT margin was around 8% give or take. I mean, you appear to be tracking [indiscernible] for this full year. I mean what's being different versus your expectations? And what can we expect to see going forward?
Andrew Borland
executiveWell, I think that -- Guy, I reckon -- I think the main impact has obviously been -- in the Horticulture business has been the prices. We -- New Zealand had a reduced national crop due to the huge hail event in Nelson, but also we had some lost volume. And also there was less volume picked because of the labor shortage across the country. So I think, yes, I mean a lower New Zealand crop did help hold prices and lift prices across the sales season. But also hugely impressed by the Mr Apple performance around seeking a premium for our premium apples and getting them there on time in a difficult environment. So I think from that perspective, it's been a great outcome for the team.
Guy Edward Hooper
analystHow are those premium varieties pricing compared to the expectations I guess now you've got more commercial volume?
Andrew Borland
executiveVery pleased with them. The Dazzle, the Posy, even though it had a very strong year with Queens again this year, and very pleased with the way those premium apple prices are going.
Guy Edward Hooper
analystOkay. And I guess the other part of the question is just about the margin outlook. Is that kind of track that you had at the last result? Is that still relevant? Or are we going to move [indiscernible]
Andrew Borland
executiveWell, I think it is still relevant because it's -- the efforts we're putting into restoring margin around the replanting, more efficient Orchard management practices through both the thinning, the pruning and the harvesting, but also moving towards lower -- more automation and also even though the new Whakatu cool store kicked in this year -- operational from day 1. And having a large cool store at our biggest packhouse has been a benefit, absolutely.
Guy Edward Hooper
analystOkay. I guess just one more. Obviously, a big lift in volume from Food Ingredients, but also there seems to be a reasonable lift in either dollar margin per kg. I guess mix changes are called out. Can you give us a little bit more color on the drivers of those?
Andrew Borland
executiveWell, clearly, the strong performer in Food Ingredients was the Shelby business. I mean, the team there have absolutely continued to operate under incredibly difficult COVID environment. But -- so our Amarillo plants continued on a -- commissioned their Dodge City -- the new Dodge City plant that got operating. And then just strong demand coming out of all those big customers up there in the U.S. And Brett Frank and all his team just continue to find good markets for the product that they were moving and very pleased with that performance. And the rest of the business, back here, the New Zealand and Australian and international business has been strong as well.
Guy Edward Hooper
analystFor demand where's the supply coming from? Are you able to -- clearly able to source products to meet that?
Andrew Borland
executiveYes. Well, clearly, I mean, because that's where you've seen the big lifts in production and the volumes traded. It was more volume both out of New Zealand and Australia, but also significantly out of America -- out of the U.S. market, again. Strong connections with the meat packers and the ability to move more volume through likes of that Dodge City plant.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Joshua Dale from Craigs Investment Partners.
Joshua Dale
analystJust 3 questions from me. First one, you've upgraded underlying NPAT guidance at the midpoint by around [ 13%. ] A good part of the upgrade appears to be from Food Ingredients, which is partly owned by Shelby's minorities. My question is, what is the upgrade to Scales equity holders?
Andrew Borland
executiveSteve, do you want to answer that one?
Steve Kennelly
executiveYes. Yes, good question. We've only -- when we've advised guidance, we've only have given the NPAT including minority interest level. So we don't give guidance on the NPAT attributable to our shareholders. Yes, it's just -- it's inclusive of minorities.
Joshua Dale
analystOkay. Is it reasonable being to look at -- I guess, there was probably about an 8% lift in [indiscernible] the interim results. Is that probably the figure for the full year just on the [indiscernible]?
Steve Kennelly
executiveI would have thought it's higher than that, but I'd have to go back and work that out. It's not -- yes, we haven't focused on that number.
Joshua Dale
analystOkay. And the second question, is there any comment you can make on dividends given the upgrade?
Andrew Borland
executiveWhat was that question again, sorry?
Joshua Dale
analystIs there any comment you can make on dividends either for the interim result or the full year, given the upgrade to guidance?
Andrew Borland
executiveWell, I just think we'll continue to running a policy of paying a dividend that I think it's -- we declared 65% to 75% range, Steve, of NPAT?
Steve Kennelly
executiveYes, 65% to 75% and having that minimum of 19%, whilst supported by NPAT, but we consider the dividend November, December. But yes, I don't think the expectation is for any change to that.
Joshua Dale
analystGreat. And last question from me. You sort of talked about the Food Ingredients division in an earlier question, but obviously, volumes have increased 30%, but I'm curious about the pricing environment. Are you, for the most part, a price taker? Or is there some scope to lift pricing as different brands compete for your supply?
Andrew Borland
executiveLook, I think the point there is that we are a strong player in the market. We have very strong relationships with both the meat packing, freezing -- the meat industry of Australia, New Zealand and America. And very good customer base who looking for the proteins that we're sourcing for them. So I just think it's -- a strong strategic positioning is assisting us to meet our customers' expectations and requirements. The range of products we've got is, I think, advantageous to us as well.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Christian Bell of Jarden.
Christian Bell
analystSorry, a number of questions for me. So please bear with me. First one, our supply chain is now worse compared to earlier updates in the year. And then does your guidance for the remainder of the year is showing disruption as it is now? Or do you assume some sort of easing at some point in the remainder of the year?
Andrew Borland
executiveI think that -- I don't know if they're getting worse per se. I think they're just continuing to be very difficult. So that would be -- and that's our assumption that they carry on being difficult, but we have got more 27-odd percent of the apples to sell. Probably less so to ship because some of it is still in the market, but we've got to get those last apples across there. We've got to continue getting the pet food across there. We've got to continue to servicing our customers across the Scales Logistics customer base. And it hasn't stopped the supply chain, so it just continues, but in, I guess, a disruptive way. And it's really probably a combination of without repeating at all the extra demand, but also the disruption in the ports. So we sort of factored in that continuing but not deteriorating further for the next half.
Christian Bell
analystCool. I mean it looks like the new Whakatu cool store generated some pretty decent savings. Would you be able to quantify that?
Andrew Borland
executiveProbably haven't got it just exactly down to the last dollar, but just the common -- the rationale that we were used to be trucking bins into that area for packing and now they can just be forklift that across a concrete platform, take absolutely adjacent to the packhouse. So that has, as we said, lowered the -- so it's probably helped lift our fruit quality, lowering the damage. You put a new plant and like that, it's way more electricity efficient, energy efficient. So it's just -- Andrew van Workum has been asking for that building to be built for 20 years, probably 30. So finally got his way and it was always a good idea of just finding the time and the capital to do it. And now we've done it, we're pleased.
Christian Bell
analystSo just as a in terms of saving like just a few million or something like that before you consider the fact that it's creating better fruit?
Andrew Borland
executiveYes. I mean this is -- it would be in the millions, for sure. And it's just a very good way to get more efficiency in our business.
Christian Bell
analystCool. And then just on RSEs, I don't suppose you've got any more visibility over how many you're going to get next year? Can you sort of update it?
Andrew Borland
executiveNo. Well, the inference we got from the announcement that government made was that it would be a meaningful number because they were obviously clogging up the MIQ system, so the hope was that they would come across vaccinated, ready to go and not having to go through a hotel in Auckland. So clearly, that's subject to current issues. But we -- from the workforce that we've got in the country can get us through to until early next year. So clearly, we're hoping for a return to some sort of normalcy in the next few months.
Christian Bell
analystIn the workforce we've currently got, [indiscernible]
Andrew Borland
executiveYes. Yes. Well they can't go far anyway at the moment, but they're keen to work. I mean it's a great scheme because it's a win-win scheme. They work hard. They're paid well and they take their money home when they go.
Christian Bell
analystAnd then just turning to the, I guess, the automation and business strategy. Has that become more of a focus -- given difficulty with the M&A, has the automation in the Horticulture business become more of a focus now?
Andrew Borland
executiveI don't think it has anything to do with the M&A. I think it's more to do with the reality of that -- and the government announcements and policy that they're not going to encourage any agri businesses to expand -- expecting easy access to migrant labor. I mean the RSE scheme has been fully supported by the governments here and in the Pacific Islands, it's a well-organized scheme. But there's more plantings going on of apples as more kiwifruit and other horticulture practices. I don't see the labor force from overseas increasing as those crops are -- extra growth in those crops. So all of -- all the horticulture industries need to start thinking about automation and wherever they can. So I just see this more necessary due to the rising -- or the shortage of labor. I mean, we've got to be realistic about that and the cost of it.
Christian Bell
analystAnd then just -- I'm sorry, sorry, were you still going on?
Andrew Borland
executiveNo, just the rising cost at the moment, yes.
Christian Bell
analystBecause I mean, the 3- to 4-year project and the Whakatu packhouse and then also the on-Orchard investment. That was sort of the first time you guys have mentioned that before. Just wondering, I guess, building off what Guy had asked previously. Had those initiatives being built in to your EBIT margin track? Because in the past, it was more just the Whakatu cool store that has been mentioned. So I mean [indiscernible]
Andrew Borland
executiveNo. I do see them being built under that -- the margin improvement or restoration, if you like, absolutely, because they're big initiatives. And we're going to put the capital to work to get that efficiency. But literally, we're just using our capital for -- for example, in that Whakatu cool store, we haven't taken it out of there. But if we did find an opportunity of scale, highly likely to sell and lease that Whakatu packhouse and that would just about fund the Whakatu automation -- sorry, sell the cool store and fund the automation. So the M&A opportunity sort of remains real and full and not being, if you like, reduced by these initiatives.
Christian Bell
analystSurely, there must be some upside to the -- to your existing margin track though, given that there is a lot more planned automation in this part of the business?
Andrew Borland
executiveThere will be when it's finished, but it's going to take, as we said, 3 to 4 years. It's -- some of the equipment is coming from overseas. We just physically haven't got the time and resource to do it all in one big bang.
Christian Bell
analystCool, fair enough. And then when you say you're monitoring the [indiscernible] technology, does that include things like robot pickers and some of the alternatives that the growers have got. And I guess, are they just quite expensive at the moment?
Andrew Borland
executiveTurning [indiscernible] haven't got robot pickers.
Christian Bell
analystThey've got some sort of machine that goes down the roads and suck the apples off the trees.
Andrew Borland
executiveYou should send it to me because it's not what -- they've got platforms. They had a robot picker that -- the inventor's gone broke. So there's a lot -- unfortunately, the industry across the globe is quite away from having robotic pickers under current technology. But pressure across the globe may speed it up. Maybe, Tesla is going to make us one. I've been watching [indiscernible] robots, isn't he. But I think that on-Orchard, we're really looking at our planting style and lowering a lot more of the apples picked by people standing up, not on a ladder, more efficiency as the first port of call. And then any sort of automation platforms or robotic pickers that will be coming down the track.
Christian Bell
analystOkay. Okay. Just -- I mean, just I guess in case on your own interest, [indiscernible] Growers just did their result last, but they said that they had bought 8 more automated pickers, I don't -- maybe it might be something a little bit different, I'm not too sure, but. And then just moving on from that, you mentioned more Orchard development this year. I thought the both finished last year. Have you guys sort of started doing that again?
Andrew Borland
executiveIt was the end of it. It was -- you've just got in the second year of your first -- the planning, you've just got to finish it off. So it's just a better -- it was really explaining the reduction in net cash. That is currently just -- we're having a pause there on that as we dive into this Whakatu automation.
Christian Bell
analystThanks, I don't think that the current lockdown will impact you too much given the main part of the harvest is done now. Most of the apples are sold in the market.
Andrew Borland
executiveYes, that's our thinking. And that's where we've changed our guidance because of the -- obviously, the way we record half year result, it's -- we have to put a value on all of the stock as though it's sold. So we've assessed that. And the risk is, to someone's earlier point, can we get it to the market and get it sold for the money? We think we can. And that's all been factored in. We can't cover every risk, but we think we've given it all a fair consideration.
Christian Bell
analystYes, clearly you've done it up till now. And then just on Food Ingredients, have your volumes remained elevated to date?
Andrew Borland
executiveYes. Look, it's a seasonal business. I mean, in New Zealand it's the slow season now, but we have built that stock up. So no, I think we'll have a -- that we're not expecting a materially different or a slowdown.
Christian Bell
analystOkay. And then just on, I guess, your guidance range, it looks like it's more reflective of the Food Ingredient performance with the top end like a repeat of what you've done in the first half?
Andrew Borland
executiveYes, I think that's right. Steve, have you got a comment on that?
Steve Kennelly
executiveYes, that would be fair. But certainly Food Ingredients has got the biggest outperformance. Just to be careful, and I'd reiterate just looking at the guidance, the fact that we are now including IFRS 16. So it does look like a big step-up. But $10 million to $11 million on an EBITDA basis is IFRS 16, and that's simply just doubling the effect at half year. So still a significant increase in guidance, but just be very conscious of the fact that we are now including the IFRS 16 effect in that.
Christian Bell
analystThe Food Ingredients haven't got any effect from IFRS 16?
Steve Kennelly
executiveNo. No, you're right. So it is -- yes, there's definitely an increase in our underlying guidance and of that Food Ingredients does have a good effect.
Christian Bell
analystYes. Okay. And sorry, just if I could squeeze it in, just to wrap it up. Just [indiscernible] Horticulture, you're expecting, I guess, a strong-ish second half given the support in the European market despite the ongoing [indiscernible] issues?
Andrew Borland
executiveWell, clearly, I think the second half for Horticulture is not a big impact because we put most -- all of the crops sold in the first half result. So Steve, what is that impact? It's pretty minimum, isn't it?
Steve Kennelly
executiveIt is very small. We're in the -- we've obviously estimated the value of the crop at half year on a selling price basis. And we're using that based on our -- on what's happened to date and on our expectations. And you'll see from previous years that the actual -- the contribution from Horticulture in the second half of the year is generally very small, if not slightly negative. And that really is dependent on how accurate we get the half year valuation. So -- but we think we've been, as usual, pretty realistic with that valuation.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from David Oxley from ACC.
David Oxley
analystI had a couple of questions, if I may. Firstly, I was just looking back at my notes. When you bought Shelby a couple of years or so ago, it was doing about $10 million of EBITDA, and you sort of set out an aspiration at the time of -- you would have spent another [indiscernible] where you could maybe make it into a $25 million EBITDA business. And you're clearly going to obliterate that aspiration this year as far as I can see, without actually spending anything. So is there any kind of upgrade -- or update you could give us as to what those aspirations might look like now in terms of the medium-term potential for that business?
Andrew Borland
executiveDavid. Look, I think the aspiration to $25 million was for the division actually. So -- but yes, look, clearly, the Shelby business is performing incredibly well for us and for -- absolute credit to the team. But we've -- I guess we've helped the business with more people, a bit more systems. But down at the end of the day, the core business is going incredibly well. We are in the process -- clearly, COVID has held us back from getting back up there. We're continuing to talk to a couple of different players as an add-on, bolt-on sort of opportunity. And we're also talking to Shelby about -- there's more room to expand, put more equipment into the Dodge City plant that we're operating out of. And also, we still haven't expanded at Amarillo. The Delta variant is in the community there in Amarillo and haven't got the vaccination rates where they could be. So those sort of things are disrupting us. There's no doubt about from that. But yes, we do have an ambition to take it -- move the bar, David. We just sort of haven't got the detail on that yet in terms of the $25 million and the [indiscernible]. Certainly, looking at it as a very viable opportunity for spending more of our -- for investing more in that business.
David Oxley
analystOkay. And I guess, the -- aside from the good execution, the fact that volumes have been presumably higher than you expected at the time you made the Shelby acquisition did, I think, from what you said in the past by more pets being acquired during lockdowns, et cetera. That -- there's no risk that that's a kind of one-off type effect that ought to be sustainable going forward as the kind of underlying volume base, you think?
Andrew Borland
executiveLook, we sort of had a query on that ourselves this year, and we've just been very pleased with the continued demand. I mean, you just need to have a look and if you look at the American market, for example, or -- and the Chinese market, there's huge more investment going into plant, new plants. And in America, I think there's 5 new plants, pet food plants planned, multimillion dollar ones in America today being -- and in the process of being built. And that's -- they are the plants that we're supplying. So the increased consumption of pet food is certainly -- we're getting a benefit from that.
David Oxley
analystRight. Okay. Second question, if I may. Am I right in thinking that your earlier guidance when you were looking at the uncertainty around securing RSE workers, and the costs you would incur in, I think, paying for them to come through MIQ, et cetera. At the time, you guys I think were assuming that you would wear the cost entirely of your workers, whereas the hope was that they would work for you during the apple picking season and then move on. And at the end, there'll be some kind of wash up where all the companies that employ these guys would share in the cost. How's that hand out, as I understand. And does some of your guidance upgrade reflect the fact that you now are not assuming the full cost of putting these people to [indiscernible]?
Andrew Borland
executiveNo. We still accommodated -- in our first guidance, we were accommodating the fact that we would share them out, yes, for sure. We've had the extra cost of them factored in. So I think the reality was that didn't quite get as many as we thought we would in a way to save this money. But there was an additional cost also, which we tried to factor in. We may not have counted for all of it though. But of the -- this time last year, we still had 500 or 600 RSE workers that normally would have gone home that we did carry through. So we had them plan volleyball competitions and doing odd jobs around the Orchard. So there's probably a bit of extra cost there that has been incurred. But we did try and accommodate for most of it.
David Oxley
analystRight. Okay. Okay. And finally, in terms of full year CapEx outlook, am I right in thinking double the first half will be about right?
Andrew Borland
executiveDepends if we get started on this automation. But Steve, what did you say then?
Steve Kennelly
executiveYes, that should be about right. The initial spend on automation because it's a 3- to 4-year project, it won't be a hugely material number.
Andrew Borland
executiveNo, next half, no, definitely not.
David Oxley
analystAnd have you -- I may have missed it. Have you said what that automation spend is likely to be over the 3 to 4 years?
Andrew Borland
executiveIt's in the order of $25 million to $30 million with contingency included.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Christian Bell of Jarden.
Christian Bell
analystJust Food Ingredients. Are there any signs of more competition in your part of the market? I know there's a lot of downstream manufacturing funds opening up, but what about in your neighborhood?
Andrew Borland
executiveNot that we're aware of competition [indiscernible]. So we're sort of sitting near no, probably not. This gets compared to space. There's no doubt about that. And in a way, Christian, the competition can come from the meat companies themselves using more of the product and edible. So in New Zealand here, putting more product that could have come to us like the bones on the meat on the last of the bone can sometimes be cartoned up and sent to China, for example. So the real competition for us is that as the alternative use from the meat companies themselves. But I am not seeing them necessarily heading into the pet food area. In a way, we expect to export less out of New Zealand going in the next few years because if you've been watching this [indiscernible] for new food manufacturing plants being commissioned now. We are finishing one off and there's another one going on in China, one in Germany. Another one, China based, one going on in South Auckland. So they're going to -- we'll be hoping to supply them before we export.
Christian Bell
analystWell, I guess, as more of these [indiscernible] get built, the competition [indiscernible] get quite a bit more, should be able to sustain pretty strong margins.
Andrew Borland
executiveThat's the plan. Don't tell them that though.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Borland for closing remarks.
Andrew Borland
executiveWell, thanks all for taking part in today's call. Clearly, we're very pleased with the results of -- across all our group businesses and for another -- what was a very turbulent period of trading. I would like to recognize, of course, the leadership and management of all of our teams, that's what wouldn't be talking about this result without their efforts this year and every other year. So thanks very much, and we look forward to updating you later in the year. Goodbye.
Operator
operatorThat does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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