Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone. We are coming to you live from our Starlink factory and future Starmind production site here in Bastrop, Texas. I'm Andrea Williams, Head of Investor Relations, and thank you for joining us for SpaceX's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Presentation. Joining us are Elon, Gwynne, and Bret, and we are live streaming on X. Our third quarter financial results were announced just after 3:00 p.m. Texas time, and all relevant materials have been published to our Investor Relations website at ir.spacex.com. For today's presentation, our prepared remarks will be followed by a question-and-answer session. We will take live Q&A from equity analysts and then move to questions directly from our investors that were polled on our dedicated earnings Q&A platform, which the SpaceX team built with Grok. During this webcast, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our earnings release, and the most recent filings with the SEC, including our final prospectus. During the presentation, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. In today's earnings release and our filings with the SEC, you can find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including all the reconciliations with comparable GAAP measures. For the third quarter of 2026, we announced the following financial results as compared to the prior year period. Revenues of $14.6 billion, up 161% from $5.6 billion. Net income of $4.4 billion, an improvement of $5.5 billion from a net loss of $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion, up 306% and from $2.2 billion. With that, I'll hand the call over to Elon.

Thank you. So we are in an inflection moment for SpaceX across launch connectivity and super intelligence. Starting with Starship, Flight 14 was a critical milestone. Starship -- over for the first time and deployed operational Sonic V3 satellites. I think we have a recap video we're going to play. [Presentation] All right. For Flight 15, which we expect to happen next month, we're going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. This will be the -- if we succeed, it will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered. This is a massive technology milestone. The only way that we can extend consciousness beyond Earth on a sustained basis. It's worth a fully reusable overall launch vehicle. So this is -- I think, this is a profound technology milestone in the history of civilization consciousness. So let's look at what simulation of Flight 15 would look like if we succeed. If we don't succeed in Flight 15, we'll get there. So the success is not guaranteed on these first planes, but I'd say it's more likely than not that this succeeds next slide. And if not, we have a steady stream of starship flight attempts through the end of this year and then accelerating next year. So with that, the Flight 15 simulation. [Presentation] We've also announced the development of the Louisiana spaceport. So that that's going to be an incredible asset to the country and to the world that will, I think, at some point, probably have on the order of 20 or more launch towers and enable the transport of millions of tons per year to orbit and beyond. So that's really going to be a big deal. We expect Starship to fly weekly at some point in the first half of next year and then second half of next year twice weekly or maybe even more frequently than that by the end of next year. The rate at which we launched Starship will increase dramatically as we solve the rapid and complete reusability. So we'll have complete reusability. Then at first, there will be a little bit of refurbishment that's needed between each flight, and we'll iron out what the need for any refurbishment such that you can immediately land the rocket and launches, again, just like an airplane. As I said, this is a profound technology milestone that most people know what don't realize how important it is, but it will be obvious in hindsight. Starlink is also just getting started. Flight 14 deployed 26 terabits per second of our Starlink bandwidth. That's equivalent to 10 Falcon 9 launches. So a single Starship launch, which wasn't even fully loaded. It was about maybe half loaded. And it did the equivalent of 10 Falcon 9 launches. So what I expect over time is not in the distant future, probably within 3 years is that we will have about 100x the bandwidth of the current Starlink constellation. So because we will have launched satellites with an order of magnitude, more bandwidth, and we will place into orbit in order of magnitude more sonic satellites. So probably something on the order of 100,000 satellites, each of which have more than 10x the bandwidth of the current Starlink system. So I think revenue for Starlink will be at least somewhat proportionate to the total bandwidth delivered. And we will also have direct to sell high bandwidth direct-to-sale capability, and we will be building out our terrestrial networks that there's broad-based connectivity anywhere that space like and Starlink are allowed to operate. So anywhere in the world that we're allowed to operate. And I think the demand for bandwidth is going to be dramatically higher than it is today. I think in 3 to 5 years, there's probably a demand for 1,000 times more bandwidth than there is currently. Because AI or SI agents will well on a per-agent basis, use for more bandwidth than a person, and they will be far more agents than there are people. So this ends up requiring several order of magnitude increase in communication bandwidth in order to satisfy that communication demand. So talking about SpaceX Super Intelligence, SpaceX SI, sexy, whatever. So as I think people are starting to realize the constraint on deployment of super intelligence is more in power and cooling and infrastructure than it is in chips. So what we've done at SpaceX, we've taken a team that has been able to achieve a market share in master orbit that is almost 90% of all master over to earth, where China is about, I think, roughly the rest of the world combined, including the rest of the U.S. is about 4%. So a team that has been able to achieve results that are in order of magnitude greater than the rest of all competitors in space combined and applied that same team to the deployment of terrestrial compute. So this is a bit like the New York Yankees playing in Little League. It's not fair. But the net result is being able to deploy power cooling and infrastructure at a rate that is vastly faster than anyone else and may, at some point, be faster than everyone else combined. So I just let that sink in for a minute. So I've been spending personally a lot of my time in Memphis, often 4 days a week, night and day, just getting the Memphis supercompute cluster classes to online. We're tracking to be able to bring roughly 200,000 GB 300s online per month for every month for the remainder of this year and continuing that pace next year. With next year being primarily a Vera Rubin compute. At this point, I would say I'm -- I would say I'm fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That would be in addition to the roughly 3 gigawatts, maybe 2.5 to 3 gigawatts that we'll have online by the end of this year. So this, I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year. As I mentioned earlier, we're -- the power cooling, electrical equipment infrastructure is somewhat of a limiting factor. So to make sure that, that is not a constraint for our build-out. We're actually going to aim for an incremental 20 gigawatts of power cooling infrastructure next year. So that the amount of parent cooling that we have is far in excess of what is needed for -- to turn the GPUs on. So there is -- there's a non-zero possibility -- maybe it's a small possibility at this point, if it's not 0 of having of SpaceX having over 20 gigawatts of super intelligence compute online next year. A small possibility, but it used to be 0, it's not 0 anymore. We're also planning to have the most powerful training cluster online by the end of Q2, which will be 440,000 Vera Rubin computers deployed for optimal training. This will, I think, be extremely helpful for getting rock to be potentially the best model. But certainly, to be extremely competitive. So on the Grok Bot side, we're seeing the fastest growth of a product that I've ever seen in my life for Grok Bot. I've never seen anything grow this fast. We're also seeing that the usage of robot grows over time per user, it does not decline. So as we make robot more useful, it's actually -- we're seeing users use it more per week, not use it less. And we'll be deploying Grok Bot at scale for enterprise customers, which is a very big deal, so they can be used effectively and teams by companies as though it were a virtual human. We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers for Grok 1. I think Grok Bot may end up being what uses most of our super intelligence compute. So I mean, in a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of '27 is somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion. Are you going next? Sorry -- sorry. I thought on that crazy note, I thought...

On that crazy note.

[indiscernible].

Thanks, Elon. So we had an exceptional execution and quarter again. And today, I'll focus both on the operational and the commercial highlights as well as talk about the priority initiatives for next quarter showing a slide with and I'll go ahead and walk through it. Starting with our space business. We remain the leading launch provider for the world, flying the vast majority of payload mass to orbit. During the third quarter, our 35 launches included 21 flights of Starlink on Falcon 9, 2 flights of Starship, a Falcon Heavy, which I'll talk about in a second, and 12 high-profile customer missions, including the Falcon Heavy launch, which we flew NASA's Roman space telescope into deep space. We also flew 6 national security space launch missions. We've also secured important new business, winning 3 additional human spaceflight missions on Dragon, which will take us through 2028. And along with the Starlink communications contract on NASA's Artemis II mission. In addition, we signed 18 new national security space launch missions, a contract to deliver payload to the lunar surface with Starship and 3 new Starfall missions on Starship. We just did a Starfall mission today, by the way, on Falcon 9. Starfall is our space capsule, which provides routine access, routine relatively low-cost access to microgravity environments for scientific research, including improving our understanding of diseases like cancer and diabetes, and developing better protocols for patients here on Earth. During the final week of the quarter, we flew Starship Flight 14 to Orbit, as Elon talked about, followed just after on October 1 by a triple header. We threw 3 Falcon missions across our 3 Falcon launch sites in just 13 hours. Crew 13, we brought safely to the International Space Station, a Falcon Heavy NRO mission and a rideshare mission flying 130 payloads. It's incredible display of what we can deliver in a single day across crew, commercial and national security missions. We're also incredibly excited for what's ahead for Starship, flying the largest payloads to help build the space economy in orbit and on other planets and the moon. As Elon said, Starships Flight 14 was a major technical milestone, and we remain on track with our goals to bring back both the first and second stages to the tower this year, refly the second stage by early next year, and ramp our launch cadence as we make progress towards rapid reusability. We'll attempt an on-orbit refueling early next year and will begin flying mobile V2 and Starmind satellites in 2027. We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA, and we expect the license for our Flight 15 to include return to launch site and Tower catch for both stages. I'm also extremely excited about expanding the Starship operations to Louisiana, with the second Louisiana purchase. The geography of Louisiana, the community and their work ethic is so aligned for an amazing Starship future. Moving on to Starlink. We had another standout quarter driven by continued growth across both our consumer, enterprise and government businesses. We ended the quarter active in 174 markets, including new market launches for Vietnam and Uganda. Looking at subscriber growth. We added 1.6 million consumers, not total users, but consumers in the quarter, reaching just under 14 million global broadband consumer subscribers. As I mentioned, this number does not include additional hundreds of thousands of enterprise subscribers and aviation customers. We remain incredibly inspired by the impact of Starlink and communities around the world, including providing service to hundreds of thousands of students and teachers in schools globally as well as for emergency response during natural disasters. Over the third quarter, Starlink's rapid response capabilities enabled support across 25 crises, including the Venezuela earthquake, the earthquake in Western Columbia and Hurricane Lowell in Hawaii. In Venezuela alone, Starlink donated over 1,400 kits to response agencies, providing critical Starlink broadband connectivity to over 250,000 people. As we mentioned last quarter, we continue to see significant growth opportunities on the enterprise and government side of the business with aviation a continuing major focus and fixed site gaining momentum. Starlink is now contracted for roughly 12,000 planes, almost 1/4 of the available aircraft, and we're expanding quickly with both new and existing customers. We signed agreements with 3 of the 4 major U.S. carriers, along with a growing list of leading international airlines. During the quarter, Lufthansa Swiss, Copa Airlines, Korean Air, Austrian Airlines and Asian airlines all flew their first Starlink equipped aircraft. To keep pace with this demand, we've quadrupled aviation production rate since the beginning of the year, and we expect to double before the end of the year. Our aviation partners report that Starlink has become a key reason customers choose to fly with them, both business travelers who increasingly rely on full connectivity in the skies or even individuals who want to stay connected all the time everywhere. Our data shows Starlink, and frankly, our customers tell us that Starlink equip flights carry higher load factors on the planes and full connectivity is quickly becoming table stakes for passengers. On the government side, Starshield continues to deliver unique mission-critical capabilities, and we see further room for growth. We remain on pace for enterprise and government revenues to exceed consumer connectivity revenues in the future each. The successful deployment of the operational V3 broadband satellites on Starship's Flight 14 marks an important step and an inflection point for Starlink. The increased capability from these satellites, as Elon talked about, and the Starship launcher itself, will provide additional capacity across markets and enable new sales in high-demand areas. We expect the market for communications to grow far beyond just human communication that we traditionally think about. Connecting cars, robots and the adoption of super intelligence will increase communication demands, not in percentages, but in many orders of magnitude. In the years ahead, we expect Starlink will represent a significant Starlink alone to represent a significant portion of global Internet traffic. In mobile, we continue to expand international partnerships turning on service with new carriers across multiple countries in the third quarter, including Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kazakhstan and Costa Rica. We surpassed 22 million monthly users on Starlink Mobile as of the end of the quarter, up 37% quarter-over-quarter. Our near-term priority remains flying the mobile V2 constellation through next year and integrating our spectrum purchases to turn on service in early 2028. Just a few weeks ago, we received approval from the FCC to launch 15,000 mobile V2 sats and announced an agreement to acquire a portfolio of low-band spectrum which will pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the U.S. Moving to super intelligence. The industry continues to demand ever more massive amounts of compute. We're rapidly expanding capacity to meet both our own needs as crock and related product scale and those of our cloud service customers. Enterprise feedback on recent model releases has been positive and rock bad in particular, is seeing strong adoption out of the gate. Grok Bot, our Agentic Assistant launched in August, and we already had paid weekly users of 800,000 earlier this month, more than doubling over the last month. B2B is our fastest-growing category with companies increasingly using Grok Bot as a force multiplier across sales, marketing, IT and engineering, treating it as an always-on teammate for complex end-to-end workflows. We're also accelerating our rock model release cadence with significant performance gains expected in the near term, will have been and more in the near term. At the same time, the integration of Cursor continues to progress well. then both our product capabilities and our go-to-market reach with a scaled enterprise sales force. Early evidence of this momentum is already visible. Grok enterprise customers with more than $1 million in run rate revenue, including Cursor, were up 50% quarter-over-quarter on a pro forma basis. Last week, we further integrated the portfolio by announcing a new scheme that brings together Grok bot, Cursor and X Premium on a single plan. In review, our business is experiencing an extremely strong momentum across all 3 segments. Our engineering teams are scaling Starship and next-generation satellites across broadband, mobile and Starshield, while our commercial teams expand Starlink across aviation, enterprise, government and global markets. At the same time, we're scaling our Super Intelligence business in the key areas of critical compute infrastructure, leveraging our hardware expertise. Now, Bret, you're good to go.

Thank you, Gwynne. We delivered another strong quarter in Q3. Revenue grew an impressive 161% year-over-year to $14.6 billion, fueled by the continued momentum in the connectivity business and our clear inflection point in the Super Intelligence or SI business. Adjusted EBITDA once again grew faster than revenue to $8.8 billion, up 306% year-over-year. The combination of our launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue and the significant expansion of our SI infrastructure business have combined to drive meaningful operating leverage in the business. Our balance sheet remains very strong. And our focus on capital allocation continues to keep us in a position to accelerate the pace of innovation that underpins the significant revenue opportunity across all of our businesses. I'll now walk through the financials by segment. The space revenues of $1.8 billion were up 84% sequentially and up 6% year-over-year, anchored by a favorable customer mix. We're on track to deliver strong growth for the year based on our robust customer manifest for Falcon and Dragon vehicles. As far as capital allocation, we continued to invest in our starship program, accelerating Raptor engine and vehicle production advancing giga bay construction and progressing multiple launch pads at both Starbase and the Cape. And importantly, we secured the location for the next phase of United States space launch leadership in Louisiana. These investments remain essential to unlocking the step change in cost and capacity that Starship will deliver. Connectivity, again, delivered robust revenue growth and profitability with revenues of $5.2 billion, up 69% year-over-year and 22% sequentially. As Gwynne mentioned, we reached 13.6 million Starlink consumer subscribers, adding 1.6 million subscribers just in Q3 alone, driven by growth in more developed markets. During the quarter, we began ramping production of our V5 kits, which supported our progress on alleviating inventory constraints. We strategically manage our channel distribution and prioritize delivery of kits to retail channels ahead of the holiday season, which we expect will lead to increased activations in Q4. Starlink consumer average revenue per user, or ARPU, monthly average revenue per user increased 5% sequentially to $69 per month, benefiting from a favorable customer mix dynamic in the quarter. Enterprise and Government revenues grew 91% year-over-year and 18% sequentially, and highlighted by growth in our Starshield program with the United States government and the continued momentum in the aviation industry. Aviation remains a major growth opportunity. as we're still early in the installation phase with many of the largest carriers worldwide and have line of sight into an accelerated activation path into '27 for our key partners. Connectivity gross profits doubled year-over-year with gross margins of 55%, including a onetime benefit of roughly 3%, primarily driven by tariff refunds in the quarter. Excluding the onetime benefits, though, adjusted EBITDA margins expanded roughly 2% year-over-year. Looking ahead, the satellite road map is a key driver of both the capacity and capability of our connectivity segment. Through the end of the year and throughout 2027, we expect to deploy V3 broadband satellites in meaningful volume with each Starship launch ramping towards a payload that delivers over 20x the downlink capacity of the current generation of Falcon 9 launches today. In parallel, we will ramp Starlink mobile V2 satellites on Starship starting in 2027 and leverage our newly enhanced wireless spectrum portfolio to expand our direct to-sell service and become a major mobile carrier, as Gwynne mentioned, in the United States. Across all 3 of our connectivity applications, Starlink Broadband, Starlink Mobile and Starshield, the launch cadence on Starship is expected to drive a step change in total capacity, coverage and service quality. SI or Super Intelligence was again the standout growth driver for the quarter. Segment revenue increased substantially to $7.6 billion, up $5 billion quarter-over-quarter and $6.7 billion year-over-year, primarily powered by the ramp of our cloud services agreements. We meaningfully improved the segment's profitability profile as we monetize newly deployed capacity and delivered powerful operating leverage for the business. We ended the third quarter with 1.7 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity with additional data halls already online in early October. For SI solutions and infrastructure, revenues were $7 billion, of which $608 million came from the Cursor acquisition, closed roughly mid-quarter. And even excluding cursor, SI solutions and infrastructure revenues grew 192% sequentially, driven primarily by the activation of new cloud services agreements. There are many customers asking for compute, and we're actively building the supply to meet both internal and external demand. We expect to have additional new customers in future deals and we'll continuously evaluate the highest margin usage for our compute assets across both new and existing cloud service agreements and serving inference for our own SI products. What we're seeing in the market is extraordinary. At current pricing, new compute deployments are generating a payback of less than a year. Pricing is currently tracking slightly above the high end of the $30 to $50 per watt range we were discussing just last quarter. which further supports the attractiveness of these terrestrial SI compute investments. will continue to be demand-led and prudent in the pace of deployment, matching our disciplined and proactive capital planning for procurement of semiconductor supply to the near-term customer demand. Our current customer contracts for SI compute have the benefit of allowing us to flexibly manage our capacity for our own model training purposes as well as be able to monetize for our SI cloud service agreements. Revenue at favorable pricing as the market availability continues to tighten. Advertising revenues grew 19% year-over-year as we build more momentum on the new advertising tech platform that we rolled out just last quarter in Q2. SI segment adjusted EBITDA was $5 billion, up $3.8 billion quarter-over-quarter and $5.4 billion year-over-year. driven primarily by higher-margin cloud service agreements. SI segment operating income was $431 million, but excluding the $1.2 billion of stock-based compensation expense, related to the cursor acquisition, the segment delivered $1.6 billion of operating profit just in Q3. And double-clicking on the share-based compensation expenses of the $60 billion equity value for Cursor when we purchased it, $23 billion was attributed towards retaining key employees and replacing outstanding equity awards, including revesting agreements for key executives. These equity awards will be recognized as stock-based compensation over roughly the next 3-year vesting period. Total company capital expenditures in the third quarter were $19.6 billion, primarily in support of our SI compute build-out, Starship infrastructure and satellite production. We ended the quarter with substantial backlog totaling $63 billion as of September 30, of which $17.5 billion was recognized as deferred revenue, approximately $42 billion of this backlog is expected to be recognized within the next year. Looking ahead, demand remains robust across all 3 segments, particularly in our Cloud Services business, we remain on track to deliver our previously stated goal of $100 billion in ARR by the end of this year, defined as annualized revenue based on the month of December. SI infrastructure, continuing to come online at Memphis and Southaven gives us visibility into an accelerated build path through the remainder of this year. As a result, we're on track to reach nearly 2 gigawatts of nameplate compute at the end of this month alone in October and have a clear line of sight, as Elon highlighted, to nameplate compute in the range of 2.5 to 3 gigawatts just by the end of this quarter. Because of the additional capacity coming online this quarter, we expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to now be in the range of $35 billion to $40 billion for this quarter. We also expect total company gross margins in Q4 and to be more consistent with the second quarter, given some onetime benefits and customer mix that we highlighted in Q3. Given the increased visibility into our compute contract pipeline over the next 6 months, we have the opportunity to provide additional look forward guidance on the acceleration we see in our business in Q1 2027. We now see total company revenues in the range of $33 billion to $37 billion for Q1 of 2027. In closing, we are in a transformative phase for the company's financial profile. We're investing aggressively across SI compute, Starship development and production and next-generation Starlink broadband and mobile constellations. The 3 areas we believe will generate the highest long-term returns. These are demand-led investments in markets with visible tangible returns in the near term. We're building the infrastructure of the future with discipline, focused on capital efficiency, strong returns on invested capital and maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet while still moving with the velocity to capture the opportunity in front of us. The combination of our diversified earnings base focus on extreme vertical integration and the robust demand in the market for super intelligence gives us conviction in the path ahead. With that, I'll turn it back to Andrea.

Thanks, Bret. We're now going to begin the Q&A. [Operator Instructions]. We will take the first question from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley.

Great. First, Elon, thank you for making flying cars real. That was freaking insane. That's my first comment.

[indiscernible] that's one of them.

It's super inspiring for people all over the world, especially young people that want to build. I got a 2-part question on Terafab. You want to make chips. You want to make crazy amounts of chips onshore or in a safe and secure place. So first, can you confirm if SpaceX has placed orders for EUV machines? If so, when do you expect delivery and just as a second part to the question, when you take a first principles approach to the semi fab supply chain, I know you've toured TSMC, ASML, AMD, land. These are very impressive companies, as I'm sure you'd agree. Where do you see the biggest areas to improve their process and supply chain when you do it your way?

Well, I mean, we're just figuring out to fabrication. So I'll give it -- I'll tell you what our internal expectations are. which obviously, I put big arrow bars on this because we don't know if we will actually achieve this or not. But it's what we're aiming for internally, is to make our first sort of test chip functional in approximately May or June of next year. That's just kind of an SRAM chip or some of that basically test the line. That's at the research fab in Austin. And we're aiming to -- our aspiration is to reach volume production around Q3 of '28 at Terafab at Grimes Creek, the main Terafab location. These are very aggressive dates. And we're very appreciative of ASML and all of our other suppliers in accelerating equipment deliveries in order to achieve this outcome. Let's just say that outcome of achieving volume production is at least in a set of possible outcomes for Q3 or Q4 of '28. So these are obviously like insanely fast time frames for chip production. We do have, I think, some significant potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication, but I don't think I should discuss that on an earnings call. let's not give away the shop here. And but I am optimistic that we will dramatically accelerate chip production. And that Terafab will ultimately do what the name suggests, which is to make a terawatt of super intelligence chips per year.

We'll take our next question from Doug Anmuth at JPMorgan.

Great. Elon, can you talk more about just how you're working through those constraints in power, cooling and infra and just what gets you comfortable with the 13 gigawatts ending '27. And then, Bret, if you could also help us understand how you're thinking about the funding requirements just as you look out to that kind of capacity.

Yes. Well, I mean, 3 gigawatts of that or very close to 3 gigawatts is what we expect to have done just in the next few months. So you can just look at the rate at which we are actually deploying and turning on compute. What I think you hear from, I guess, other hyperscalers is, you don't hear a lot of detail about how many GPUs they're actually turning on every month. And with us, you are. I mean as precise as possible about this. It is absolutely insane to be deploying -- providing the power and all for the electrical equipment, the cooling the batteries, the networking and everything else that's needed to turn on 220,000 GB 300 a month, but that is actually what we're doing right now. And that pace will obviously accelerate next year. We're not going to slow down. I don't think -- again, I don't want to -- some of this -- if you say like how we're going to get it is power. Let's just say it like we actually -- we do have a plan that gets guests to 20 gigawatts of power and cooling by the end of next year. but that is not something that I should spell out. That is highly proprietary because if I tell you about it, the are going to try to do the same thing. And I'm not saying we'll have 20 gigawatts of power. I'm saying we have a plan where if everything goes right, we'll have 20 gigawatts of incremental power, I should say, next year. So 23 gigawatts roughly in total. Now I don't expect everything to go right. That's why I said I'm confident of 10 --highly confident of 10 next year. And 20 is difficult, but not impossible. And I mean, some of the things we're doing, I have mentioned publicly. So we're casting the blades and veins for the turbines. So SpaceX already has a very advanced casting capability that was developed for rocket engines. So we have, I think, actually the most advanced casting capability on Earth. Because the demands for castings for rocket engines exceed the amounts for everything and anything else you can possibly imagine. So taking that incredible team that has I think objectively, the most advanced casting technology in the world and saying, hey, can you guys also make some blades and veins for terrestrial turbines, is much easier than what they have done in the past. And when we talk to the turbine suppliers, they tell us that the blades and veins are 12 to 18 months behind the rest of the turbine. Meaning they can deliver everything except the blades and veins, 12 to 18 months before they can deliver the blades made. So casting is this really difficult bottleneck. And if anything, it seems to be getting worse. So that means that we can bring power online 12 to 18 months faster than anyone else. That's the kind of advantage that's difficult to replicate. Unless someone else is doing advanced casting -- is building an advanced casting shop that will be unable to compete with SpaceX in this regard. And we're looking at many different sources of power, not just gas turbines. There's -- we obviously want to use solar wind and every other source of power that we can obtain. We think there's also a lot of opportunity for inference compute. If you manufacture modular inference compute at the factory level and then such that it's the power and cooling are built in at the factory and then you distribute modular compute clusters all over the country, if not all over the world. That's about as much as I should say about scaling power and cooling. But like I said, at this point, I'd say I feel highly confident of 10 gigawatts incremental next year. So 13 total and some number over 20 is the probability of achieving that is rising rapidly.

Doug, the second part of your question related to funding. I think we -- we certainly have the advantage related to others in that we are investment grade and have a very strong balance sheet. And there are a number of available pools of debt capital that we are talking to at the moment related to funding this incredible growth. The other really important thing to emphasize is the payback period is very short. And so this capability starts to fund itself in a pretty near-term situation. And so the fact even that we're finishing this quarter with more capability starts the funding mechanism even into the first half of next year. So you have your operational cash flows, first and foremost, you have multiple pools of capital available in the debt market, especially because of our investment-grade status and strong balance sheet. And then you also have the opportunity from what we've seen to partner with I would say, the whole value chain related to on the vendor and customer side. So there's nothing easy about SpaceX for sure. And so might as well have the finance piece be part of the challenge at the same time. But we have a lot of conviction that we were going to be able to do this in a very measured fashion and continue to keep ourselves in that IG status along the way.

And certainly, if you look at our track record with respect to capital efficiency Starship and all of our other projects you'd be hard-pressed to find any company in the world that is as good at capital efficiency at SpaceX.