Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (2330) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 16, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Jeff Su
executiveGood afternoon, everyone. And welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference and Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today. Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. [Operator Instructions] The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2026, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2026. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open both the floor and the line for the question-and-answer session. As usual, I'd like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release. And now I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.
Jen-Chau Huang
executiveThank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter of 2026. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter of 2026. Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 2-nanometer process technology contributed 3% of wafer revenue in the second quarter; 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 30%, 33% and 11%, respectively; advanced technology, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 77% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 20% quarter-over-quarter to account for 66% of our second quarter revenue. Smartphone decreased 4% to account for 22%. IoT increased 4% to account for 5%. Automotive increased 15% to account for 4%. DCE increased 5% to account for 1%. Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 3.5 trillion or USD 110 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 144 billion quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to the increase of TWD 58 billion in accounts payable and the increase of TWD 48 billion in accrued liabilities and others. In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable days increased by 3 days to 29 days. Inventory days increased 7 days to 87 days, primarily due to the ramp of N2 technology. Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 783 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 496 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 156 billion for third quarter 2025 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 99 billion to TWD 3.1 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures totaled USD 15.7 billion. I finished my financial summary. Now let me -- let's turn to the current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between USD 44.6 billion and USD 45.8 billion, which represents a 12% sequential increase or a 37% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 32, gross margin is expected to be between 65% and 67%, operating margin between 56% and 58%. This concludes my financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our second quarter '26 and third quarter '26 profitability. Compared to the first quarter, our second quarter gross margin increased by 150 basis points sequentially to 67.7%, slightly ahead of our guidance, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and a slightly higher overall capacity utilization rate, partially offset by dilution from our overseas fabs. We have just guided our third quarter gross margin to decrease by 1.7 percentage points to 66% at the midpoint, primarily as we expect the steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer technology to dilute our gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points. This dilution is expected to be partially offset by very strong demand for our leading-edge technologies and continued cost improvement efforts, including productivity gains and across node capacity optimization. Looking at the second half of the year, given the 6 factors that determine our profitability, there are a few puts and takes that I would like to share. First, we expect the steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer to dilute our gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points in the second half of the year. Furthermore, as the scale of our overseas expansion grows, we continue to forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of overseas fabs in the next several years to be 2% to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages. On the other hand, demand for our leading-edge technologies is very strong. In addition, we continue to leverage our manufacturing excellence to generate more wafer output and drive greater across node capacity optimization in our fab operations to support our profitability. Finally, we have no control over the foreign exchange rate, but that may be another factor. Next, let me talk about our 2026 capital budget. At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated to higher growth opportunities in the following years. With our strong technology leadership and differentiation, we are well positioned to capture the multiyear structural demand from the industry megatrends of 5G, AI, and HPC. Given the continued strong structural demand from our customers, including the newly emerging Agentic AI market, we have decided to raise our full year 2026 capital budget to be between USD 60 billion and USD 64 billion as we continue to invest heavily to support our customers' growth. We always collaborate closely with the tool suppliers well in advance to prepare the capacity, whether it is a strong up cycle or down cycle, just like our customers collaborate with us well in advance to plan our capacity. Thus, we do not foresee any bottlenecks to our capacity expansion plans. About 70% to 80% of the 2026 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies. About 10% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask-making and others. Even as we invest for the future growth with this level of CapEx spending in 2026, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increased cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis. In 2025, we paid TWD 467 billion in cash dividends, up 28.6% year-over-year as TSMC shareholders received a total of TWD 18 cash dividend per share. In 2026, they will receive TWD 24 per share, up another 33% year-over-year, and we expect a continued and increasing cash dividends per share in 2027 as well. Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.
C.C. Wei
executiveThank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of USD 40.2 billion at the high end of our guidance in U.S. dollar terms driven by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies. Moving into third quarter, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies, including the steep ramp of our 2-nanometer technology. Looking ahead, we observe consumer and price-sensitive end market segments are being challenged due to the impact of rising component prices and macroeconomic uncertainties. As such, we are being prudent in our business planning while focusing on our fundamentals of our business to further strengthen our competitive position. Having said that, AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust. The AI megatrend continues to drive the need for more and more computation, which supports the robust demand for leading-edge silicon. Our customers and customers' customers, who are mainly the cloud service providers, continue to provide us with a very strong signal and positive outlook. Thus, our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remains very high. Supported by our robust technology differentiation and the broad customer base, we now expect our full year 2026 revenue growth to be slightly above 40% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms. Now let me talk about the acceleration of Agentic AI. The AI market continues to be very dynamic. The emergence of Agentic AI is leading to a resurgence in the role of CPUs in AI data centers, which drives more silicon demand in addition to AI accelerators. We believe this is positive for TSMC as no matter what CPU approach is taken, whether it's x86, ARM-based, or RISC-V architecture, they are almost all TSMC's customers. We are already collaborating closely with our CPU customers and working to support them with the most advanced technologies and necessary capacity, so they can capture the Agentic AI market opportunities. Next, let me talk about TSMC's capacity expansion strategies. To address the structural increase in overall long-term semiconductor market demand profile, TSMC collaborates closely with our customers and our customers' customers to plan our capacity. Given the fundamental complexity of leading-edge technologies and the design-in and lead time involved, we also have a very good idea of their multiyear product road map and production plans. This is important because it takes more than 5 years to develop the technology and product, prepare the capacity, and ramp it up to high-volume production. Internally, TSMC employs a disciplined capacity planning system to assess the market demand from both a top-down and bottom-up approach. This is a continuous and ongoing process. Based on our assessment, we are stepping up our CapEx investment to increase our capacity, to support our customers' future growth. Now with a strong collaboration and support from our leading U.S. customers and the U.S. federal state and city governments, we would like to announce an additional USD 100 billion investment in Arizona. This is to build several more semiconductor logical wafer fab for 2-nanometer and below technologies as well as advanced packaging fabs to support the strong multiyear demand from our leading U.S. customers. We believe this investment will help to further foster the development of the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem, strengthen the supply chain, and support an increasing number of high-tech, high-paying jobs in the United States. At the same time, we are building 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fab in Taiwan over the next several years, and we will continue to further invest in Taiwan. Therefore, TSMC's semiconductor technology and manufacturing work continue to play a pivotal role in supporting the global semiconductor industry while unleashing our customers' innovation. Now let me talk about the current N3 capacity expansion. We are executing well on our global plan to add 3 additional 3-nanometer fabs, one in Taiwan, one in Arizona, and one in Japan to support the robust multiyear pipeline of demand for 3-nanometer technologies. In addition to all the new fabs, we continue to convert 5-nanometer tools to support 3-nanometer capacity in Taiwan. We are also leveraging our manufacturing excellence to drive greater productivity across our fab in all locations to generate more wafer output. We are also focusing on capacity optimization across node, which including flexible capacity support among N7, N5 and N3 nodes. In summary, we are using multiple levers to do everything we can, wherever we can, however we can to maximize the support to all our customers. Now let me talk about our mature node strategies. TSMC's strategy at mature node has not changed. Our first priority is to fully support our customers. And now we continue to increase, not decrease our mature node capacity in the higher value-added segment. For example, we are increasing our mature node capacity through JASM Fab 1 in Japan for CMOS image sensor application and ESMC in Germany for automotive and industrial applications. In today's market, outside of specific areas such as power management IC and CMOS image sensor, the mature node demand in other commodity area is not that strong. Thus TSMC will continue to focus on the higher value-added and strategic segment by ensuring we have a necessary capacity to support our customers' growth. Finally, let me talk about our A14 status. As I mentioned a few minutes ago, the complexity of leading-edge technology continue to increase. The lead time to develop a new technology such as A14, building the capacity, and then ramping it up now takes 5 to 7 years. There are no shortcuts. Our A14 technology representing the second generation of nanosheet transistors and deliver another full node stride from N2 with performance and power benefit to address the incessant need for high-performance and energy-efficient computing. Compared with N2, A14 will provide 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 25 to 30 power improvement at the same speed and close to 20% chip density gain. A14 technology development is on track and progressing well. Internal product-like vehicle demonstrated close to 90% device performance and close to 90% 256 megabits SRAM yield. We are observing a strong level of customer interest and engagement from both smartphone and HPC AI applications and customer now tape-out activity is ongoing and ahead of schedule. Pre-production will start in 2027 and volume production is scheduled for 2028. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced A13 and A12 as extension of the A14 family. A13 represents a further advancement of A14, achieving an over 6% die area saving through an innovative 97% optical shrink. Through continuous design technology co-optimization, A13 also drive further performance and power efficiency improvement. A13 design rule are backward compatible with A14 to ensure smooth IP migration. We also introduced A12, which will bring our innovative superpower rail technology to the A14 platform for superior performance, power, and area benefit. Both A13 and A12 are scheduled for volume production in 2029. We believe A14 and its derivative technologies will propel our A14 family to be an even larger and long-lasting node for TSMC than N2. Just like 2-nanometer technology is a larger and longer-lasting node than 3-nanometer, and here further extend our technology leadership position well into the future. This concludes our key messages, and thank you for your attention.
Jeff Su
executiveThank you, C.C. So this does conclude our prepared statements. [Operator Instructions] Please note that we will conclude today's meeting at around 3:10 or so. So we will try to get in as many participants your questions as possible. But if we're not able to, we do apologize in advance, and thank you, everyone, for your patience. So operator, well, let's begin the Q&A session. We'll take the first 2 questions from the floor, and then we'll go online. Maybe again, left, center, right. Maybe we'll take the first question, Sunny Lin from UBS, please.
Sunny Lin
analystCongrats on the very strong performance and outlook. So number one, I want to double-click on the CapEx. So, very encouraging CapEx outlook. And I do think it's essential that TSMC showcase a stronger determination in capacity expansion, given the stronger demand and the very tight supply. And so beyond 2026, I think every large client also wonder how aggressive TSMC is planning for CapEx. And so back in the COVID super cycle, TSMC did provide a 3-year CapEx outlook back then. And so I wonder, at this point, will it be possible for you to share any color, maybe for the coming 3 years CapEx? Thank you.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Sunny's first question is regarding CapEx. She does believe it's important, essential to show our determination to support our customers with these large CapEx investments. So she wants to know, do we have a 3-year CapEx guidance '26, '27, '28, similar to what we did back in 2021?
Jen-Chau Huang
executiveOkay. Sunny, we do not have a number to share with you. But as you know, we invest CapEx this year for the future business opportunity. And as long as there are business opportunities, we will not hesitate to invest. As you can hear from our prepared remarks that we -- our conviction in the megatrend, AI megatrend multiyear is very strong, and we are stepping up the CapEx, including increasing this year's CapEx. Last time, we said our CapEx in the next 3 years will be significantly higher than the CapEx in the past 3 years. Now is the -- the CapEx in the next 3 years will be even more significantly higher than the past 3 years.
Sunny Lin
analystYes. Sorry, maybe let me follow up on CapEx from another...
Jeff Su
executiveSecond question.
Sunny Lin
analystYes, sure. So you just announced additional $100 billion CapEx in the U.S., and I think that's pretty important for you to secure the business in the U.S. as well. And so now with total $265 billion CapEx in Arizona, what's your current plan to bring on the capacities in Arizona in the coming few years?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Sunny's second question is on to, C.C. said, investing additional $100 billion in Arizona based on the strong demand from our customers. So the total investment now is $265 billion. What is the schedule time frame or the plan for this investment? Is that correct, Sunny? Yes. Okay.
C.C. Wei
executiveSunny, the schedule will depend on the market situation. You know that. So today's situation, the megatrend is so strong so that we announced additional $100 billion investment in Arizona. How many fabs? Many. So actually, let me say that, say probably, additional 4 more fabs will be built.
Sunny Lin
analystAnd that's combining front- and back-end?
C.C. Wei
executiveYes.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. Thank you. Let's go to the middle. We have Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley. We'll go left, middle, right from where I sit.
Charlie Chan
analystSo first of all, congrats for a very strong outlook. My first question is really about the foundry competition. I understand that there's no shortcut for a newcomer like TerraFab, but how about like Samsung Foundry, right? They got a huge profit from memory business. Intel got a U.S. policy support. So I'm not sure how TSMC is going to address those competition, because apparently, several U.S. companies are engaging with those industry peers. And recently, actually yesterday, ASML just announced to expand the EUV capacity for 2028. Would TSMC worry that your competitors to take more slots and build a large capacity in the future to compete with you in the leading-edge business?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Charlie's question is competition from 2 angles. One, he does note, C.C. said foundry competition, no shortcuts, but he says according to the news, many of our customers are engaging with our foundry competitors. One of them in Korea is making huge amounts of money these days. Another one may have the U.S. government policy support. So the first part of his question, how do we see the competition and threat of customers moving to our competitors, number one.
C.C. Wei
executiveWell, let me say that. Yes, one of my competitors in South Korea, they make a huge amount of money, and I'm jealousy about it. And then the other one in the U.S., they got a very strong U.S. government support. We also got the government support, by the way, although we don't announce it. However, let me share with you, as we said, there is no shortcut. What does that mean? Meaning that in the semiconductor industry, you have to go back to fundamental. Government's help is welcome. Really, we also appreciate that. A lot of money, of course, that's nice to have. But the most important thing as we continue to say is the technology, manufacturing, and customer trust. These 3 fundamental never change. For my 30-some years, 40 years career, it's always the most important thing. And that's always the TSMC's secret recipe to win the business. So from my -- from the competition point of view, choosing a technology, ramping it up is not buying a milk from 7-Eleven. Well, I'm using that -- I'm quoting the sentence for my customer, anyway. It says that you're choosing a kind of a technology partner, it is no shortcut. You need to understand the technology. You need to really utilize it using the test chip, and then something, and work together, and then prepare the capacity and ramp it up. That's why I would say, it takes about 5 years. It's not that today, you think this milk is better, you go to the next store, it's a 7-Eleven. You don't like it, you go to another store. No. So that's my answer, Charlie, is it's -- agree?
Charlie Chan
analystYes. So I hope you can buy more milk, so other people can get it. Yes. So let me switch gears to a more exciting side. C.C. just said you see a very strong signals from customers, customers' customers. You also revised up the full year revenue guide. Are you ready to revise up the 5-year revenue CAGR, especially this AI semi CAGR? I remember it was like high 50%. But here comes the question, right, that Agentic AI demand is so strong, CPU is a great opportunity for TSMC. But how about those kind of memory cost increase, right? It's kind of a big chunk of this kind of AI CapEx. So, what's the update of the AI semi CAGR? And how should we look at the contents of this AI semi related to TSMC's growth?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Charlie's second question is regarding the AI-related demand. We do continue to see very strong and positive signals from our customers, customers' customers. We revised up our full year. So his question is around our AI CAGR guidance that we gave in January on a 5-year period, mid- to high-50s CAGR growth. He's wondering if there's any update to that. Agentic AI, a new opportunity, what is our definition of AI accelerator? Do we include that? And what is the CAGR?
C.C. Wei
executiveCharlie, if you read our message that we continue to invest more. We increased the CapEx with a good reason. So if you're asking about the AI's CAGR, let me give you not a number, but it's stronger and stronger and stronger. So we don't give you the number today because it continue to increase. So we don't know how to answer this question, but stronger than what we said before.
Jeff Su
executiveThank you, Charlie. All right. Let's move to this side. Maybe we'll take the question from Arthur from Macquarie.
Yu Jang Lai
analystFirst, congrats on the strong execution and performance. My question is regarding the new advanced packaging technology. We noticed that especially the EMIB-T is gaining traction. So how will TSMC react this request?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. Sorry. So Arthur's first question is on advanced packaging and competition. I guess, very simply put, EMIB-T, in his view, is gaining traction. So how do we see the competitive threat from this?
C.C. Wei
executiveWell, let me say that, our packaging capacity is so tight that now it's limited by customers' growth. So we welcome that additional flexibility in the market. And so that will help TSMC's front-end wafer business growth, which is a majority part of TSMC's business. The technology looks good, according to the newspaper. And we hope they will be successful and so that share some of the loading from TSMC. Today, we're working very hard to shorten the gap between the demand and the capacity. And so as I said, we welcome to have this additional alternatives, and so the flexibility for my customer.
Yu Jang Lai
analystThat makes a lot of sense. So a follow-up. So as this is a new technology, right? So if your clients, they ask your support, and our value is support our customers' success, right, how TSMC will handle this special request?
Jeff Su
executiveSorry, your question is...
Yu Jang Lai
analystSo if these technologies have some small problem, and then ask our company to support. So how our company accommodate it?
Jeff Su
executiveSo Arthur's question is, if there is some issues with this technology, do we have a -- are we -- I don't know how to say it. Is there an alternative plan?
C.C. Wei
executiveLet me answer the question. Our #1 is to support our customers' success. So whatever that we can hear about our customers' business, we want to win. Does that answer your question?
Yu Jang Lai
analystOkay.
Jeff Su
executiveLet's come back. We'll take one more here, and then we'll go online and then back to the room. Gokul?
Gokul Hariharan
analystFirst question on, maybe since you are not wanting to give a longer-term numerical guidance, could you talk a little bit about the philosophy of how you are expanding capacity? Obviously, customer feedback, customers' customers feedback is important. Do you also consider competitive pressure? Because as an outright market leader, having like undersupply for a very long period of time is not really desirable for TSMC, right? You probably want a market which is more balanced. So when you think about your capacity expansion, like how long do you think it takes to fulfill the demand as you see right now? That's one. And second, chips, obviously, is the current shortage. But there is also a lot of discussion about data center delay, power capacity being available. So could you also share some thoughts on how you are layering in that kind of concerns because you don't want your chips to be available, but having to wait for the data center deployment to happen. So just to understand how that goes into your planning framework as well.
Jeff Su
executiveYes. Thank you. So Gokul's first question is, again, how do we plan our capacity and determine the capacity expansion plan. Certainly, we take into consideration the demand, multiyear demand from our customers and customers' customers. But do we also consider the competitive pressures from competitors building capacity? Is that part of our calculus to expand the capacity, one? And then also, what about things outside of chips like data center delays or power, these type of deals?
C.C. Wei
executiveGokul, that's a good question. Definitely, every time when we think about the business, we consider the competition. That's number one. And then, we look at where we are. And then we decide a bottom-up and then top-down's assessment of those demand. Those are the typical thing, I mean, in our daily life. So we make a lot of judgment and then we'd be more careful. We talk to customers and customers' customer. Those are the CSPs. And then, we get all their input for the demand. And then we make a judgment. Now remember that I believe every customer tell me the truth, everyone. You put all the truths together, it's not the truth. So we have to make some of the judgment. You know what I mean, since you are laughing. Because all the customers are very aggressive, right? That's the CEO's job. CEO got to be aggressive. So they give me the number of their demand, and I believe they try their best to tell me the truth. So I put all together, all the truths together is not a truth. Mark down that word. So yes, we do a very careful judgment. May not be correct, may not be correct, but we did carefully and because this is a big money, right? This year, we say we increased the CapEx from $52 billion to $56 billion, now $60 billion to $64 billion. And you bet, that will continue to increase. It's a big money. So we do it carefully. So we did all the assessment and that lead to your second question. Are we sure that we deliver the chips to our customer, and they were not put into inventory? So we -- actually, we are checking the AI data centers progress, the building, the location, the demand, the racks, we're checking all that to make sure that TSMC chips will not be put in inventory. That answer your question?
Gokul Hariharan
analystYes, that's clear. So C.C., so do you -- you still believe even end of next year, we are still going to be running short of supply even with this elevated capacity build-out plans?
C.C. Wei
executiveYou want me to give you a guarantee, right? Let me say that, I believe from this day on all the way to probably 2029, 2030, the demand is very strong. Whether in between there's a dip or not, I'm not very sure. But the trend is so robust that I believe we are witnessing a kind of a new industry. I would like to say the new industry called AI industry, which is so common in our daily life because it's going to affect our automotive, affect the humanoids, robot, and also impact to all the industry. So by the amount of money we put in, I mean, including all the CSPs, this alone is a very important new industry to the world. And so the demand will be there. And the fundamental thing is semiconductor chips, and most of them in TSMC.
Gokul Hariharan
analystMy second question is on your profitability. So C.C., you joke that you are definitely jealous of your memory competitor on their margins. But it definitely feels like profitability-wise, longer-term foundry, especially leading-edge foundry should be higher than memory, looking at number of competitors out there. So as you are investing for a lot of your customers, how is that discussion going? Because you are no longer the most profitable semiconductor manufacturing company at this point in time. So you probably have less pressure in terms of passing on your value and capturing your value right now compared to maybe 1 year back.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Gokul's second question is on profitability and pricing to a certain extent. Of course, some of the memory makers are making very good profitability and margins today, but he notes the role of foundry could be even more value in TSMC's role as well. So what should be the right way to think about the long-term profitability for your foundry? Should it be better? And then I guess, really pricing into this, what type of pricing approach do we want to take?
C.C. Wei
executiveYes, Gokul, your question actually is simple. What is the wafer pricing strategy for TSMC, and what kind of gross margin we should have? The higher, the better, of course. But we are a partner, a partner meaning that I said many times, our customers got to be successful. I don't want to squeeze them out from the market. And besides, we are a very trustable company with our customers. So we don't suddenly increase our price by, which I like to have, 4x or 5x. You cannot survive for that kind of -- for your customer to survive for that kind of a price increase. So we earn our value, and we make sure that our profit, our gross margin is enough for our long-term sustaining expansion. That's to the benefit of my customer and TSMC also. That's our philosophy. So yes, I'm really jealous about the memory companies, 86% gross margin. 86%? About 68%, I would be happy about that. But all right. Anyway, so I answered the question. We are very trustable.
Jeff Su
executiveThank you. Operator, can we take the next 2 questions from participants on the line, please?
Operator
operatorYes. Now it's James Fontanelli from Arete.
Jim Fontanelli
analystYes. Could I ask about the risk that you see around customer concentration, as AI demand continues to significantly outgrow other end markets? I think your exposure to your top 5 customers is becoming meaningfully larger than at any point in your history. So I'd just like to understand how you see that risk.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Jim's first question is risk around customer concentration. We have large customers that are getting larger. Are we worried that we have too many big customers or the customer concentration?
C.C. Wei
executiveNo, that's not our concern. Besides what you say the customers are growing bigger and bigger, we are very happy about it. And some of the customers also growing very fast. So it's not -- Jim, it's not what you said that the bigger customer is growing bigger and bigger. No. I mean that's -- there's a lot of new player in the AI industry.
Jeff Su
executiveDo you have a second question?
Jim Fontanelli
analystYes. So we're seeing your direct customers put capital into both financing, investing and investing in AI demand. Is that something that TSMC is considering?
Jeff Su
executiveSo Jim's second question, he knows some of our customers are helping to invest in their customers. Jim, if I understand you right correctly, you're asking if TSMC, if this is an approach we would take to invest in our customers. Is that correct? Or financing and investing?
Jim Fontanelli
analystYes, in the end-to-end customers, not your direct customers.
Jeff Su
executiveRight. So in customers' customers as well.
C.C. Wei
executiveTo answer, Jim, to answer your question directly, every company has a different consideration and every company has a different strategy. So far, no, TSMC don't do this kind of financial arrangement because of, we think we are working with current customer with the current model smoothly and also successfully.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. Thank you, operator. Can we move on to the next participant on the line, then we'll come back to the floor.
Operator
operatorNext one to ask question, Mehdi Hosseini from SFG.
Mehdi Hosseini
analystTwo, from my end. I want to go back to the $100 billion investment in U.S. Is there any way you can give us some time line? Is it over the next 3 years, 5 years? How should we think about the progression of this $100 billion investment in the U.S.? And I have a follow-up.
Jeff Su
executiveSo Mehdi's first question is around the announcement today, additional $100 billion investment in the U.S. In terms of the CapEx time frame, is it in the next 3 years, in the 5 years? Do you have any schedule or time frame to share about this additional $100 billion?
C.C. Wei
executiveWe do have a plan, but let me share with you actually the progress or the schedule. Most of the time, it depends on the market situation and our customers' demand. So if you ask me to give you a firm schedule, no, we don't have it today. But we do have a plan. And we speed it up. We try to speed it up as fast as possible.
Mehdi Hosseini
analystSo the message is, you're flexible, but also you're expediting the investment in U.S. Is that correct?
Jeff Su
executiveSo -- well, I think C.C. said we're trying to move as fast as we can, but everything is based on our customer needs.
C.C. Wei
executiveYes. We're also moving the new fabs and the facilities in Taiwan as fast as possible. And the same thing, we try to bring up a new fab in the Japan as fast as possible. Because of the situation today is the demand and the supply, the gap is so big. So we are working very hard to narrow the gap.
Jeff Su
executiveDo you have?
Mehdi Hosseini
analystI want to as a follow-up. Actually, I want to dive into the compute part of HPC. And I want to ask you about networking switches. And in that context, when should we expect the COUPE platform to have a material contribution to your top line?
Jeff Su
executiveSo Mehdi's second question, very specific. He wants to know for our COUPE platform, when will it have a very meaningful contribution to the business?
C.C. Wei
executiveWe start the production right now, and it will be ramped up. As time goes by, I think the AI data center need to lower down the power consumption and increase the bandwidth of the communication channel. So I believe the COUPE will continue to increase the demand, and then will become a fairly important technology in the next few years.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. Thank you. Let's come back to the floor. We'll take the next question from Citibank, Laura Chen.
Chia Yi Chen
analystAnd my first question is also about a very promising outlook as TSMC raised the CapEx and also the growth outlook for this year. And particularly, I think C.C., you mentioned about the Agentic AI and the CPU growth potential. But can you give us more update among that AI, different kind of chips between GPU, accelerators or CPU? What you see the growth potential and your visibility?
Jeff Su
executiveSo Laura's first question is around sort of the outlook. We obviously raised the CapEx and growth outlook for this year. She wants to know within the AI, the outlook for Agentic AI and CPUs versus AI accelerators, GPUs, et cetera. How do we see these segments?
C.C. Wei
executiveLaura, I don't think I can give you a very specific number. But let me share with you. All of them are in TSMC. And they're also using the same kind of leading-edge technologies. We're working with our customers to allocate the wafer, the supply to balance the CPU, GPU, XPUs ratio, okay?
Chia Yi Chen
analystOkay. That's -- yes, that makes sense. And then my second question is also about the advanced packaging. We know that during the symposium, TSMC previously already announced a 14x reticle CoWoS road map to enable larger AI packaging. But at the same time, we also noted that TSMC, maybe last month in Japan, you showed the substrate development for CoWoS to enable some of the glass technology. So I'm just wondering if you can give us more like technologies progress update on the different kind of technology for glass core or glass substrates or glass carrier. What's the progress at TSMC right now?
Jeff Su
executiveSo Laura's second question is on advanced packaging. She notes, as we said, we road map to even larger than 14x reticle size with CoWoS. But she also wants to know the technology process in newer areas like glass substrates, glass cores, what is the progress and status?
C.C. Wei
executiveWe are -- let me say that. Today, the majority is still CoWoS, right? And we are developing that alternative to try to lower down the cost. And we also work with substrate vendor so that our customer can have their product be in the market. The progress, we're building a pilot line that I announced a few quarters ago. And it takes about another 1 year to be mature, so we can put it into the production with our customer. Okay.
Jeff Su
executiveThank you. Let's move to this side of the room. Bank of America, Haas Liu.
Haas Liu
analystAnd congrats on the great results. My first question is regarding your CapEx and sales. You gave pretty solid CapEx outlook for this year and also said the CapEx outlook in the next couple of years will continue to be pretty significant. And you also raised this year at 40% plus. So would you be able to provide your next couple of years' sales growth outlook, try to quantify it? And relatedly, I think also on that topic is whether you can just try to break down which part of the demand you are seeing as the key driver for you to raise your CapEx and also for this year's demand? Is it still mostly driven by cloud computing or it is proliferating to edge computing? Or to some extent, is it also related to your equipment supply chain is raising their price as well?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. That's several questions in one. So I'm going to take that as 1.5 questions at least. But basically, Haas is asking, with the CapEx increase and the revenue increase this year, I think he's trying to look at intensity, but he wants to know what about the revenue guidance for the next several years. Yes, I'll stop there for now.
C.C. Wei
executiveOkay. Let me answer that question. Because of the revenue corresponding to our investment, right, because we know we forecast our demand, and then we make an assessment, and then we do the CapEx. Next few years is going to be a very good business for TSMC. That's all I can say.
Jeff Su
executiveAnd then the other part, so what's the key driver? Is it cloud AI? Is it edge AI? Is it cloud vendors are increasing the price?
C.C. Wei
executiveIt's all AI related, everything.
Haas Liu
analystOkay. Yes.
Jeff Su
executiveDo you have a quick follow-up?
Haas Liu
analystYes. I think it is more on your long-term strategy because a lot of people have actually been asking about your CapEx and also competition on the front-end. But I would actually say that if on the back-end competition is rising, especially coming from Intel EMIB-T, are you worried that your value add for your overall foundry business across front-end manufacturing to the back-end packaging business, the value add could actually be cannibalized with growing competition?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Haas's second question is around the competition in advanced packaging. If our competitors are able to gain traction or business with things like EMIB-T, would that be the gateway or an entry way into more competitive threat on the front-end logic wafer side? So does advanced packaging lead to front-end wafer?
C.C. Wei
executiveHaas, let me answer that. The front-end's wafer business and the back-end's business are 2 different things, right? If they are the same, then you can expect ASE become the front-end competitor also. It's 2 different things. And I also say that since our capacity in the back-end is so in shortage mode, the gap is bigger. And so, I welcome that the competitor offers some of the flexibility to my customer so that their front-end wafer can be put into the package, and that help TSMC's front-end wafer business. That's our attitude.
Jeff Su
executiveOperator, let's take one more from the online, and then we'll wrap up with back in person.
Operator
operatorNext one to ask question, Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.
Robert Sanders
analystYou recently stated that High-NA tools are too expensive. But could you please discuss how your customers are considering the impact of die stitching challenges from a smaller field size with High-NA. Could that actually slow the adoption of High-NA even if the tech improves or the tech gets more productive? And I have a follow-up.
Jeff Su
executiveWell, Rob's first question is a very specific technology around High-NA adoption. He wants to know the customers' feedback on the challenges with die stitching. Is this an impediment or barrier to High-NA adoption in our view?
C.C. Wei
executiveYou got a very detailed understanding of the High-NA. Today, the fuel size is only one half. And we put that one into our consideration of the manufacturing cost and something. Again, let me answer this question quickly. We are -- whether we use a High-NA or not, actually, one High-NA is a very good tool. Let's assume that, right? We understand it's a very high performance. But then, TSMC make it clear that we work with ASML and try to make it more suitable for manufacturing in terms of the cost and in terms of the maturity. So we always consider that technology maturity and the cost, and whether we use it or not, okay?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. Thank you, C.C. Do you have a second question, Robert?
Robert Sanders
analystYes. Just a quick follow-up. I think all of us on this call are assuming that the unconstrained demand for 3-nanometer and below is sort of 30% to 50% above your ability to supply. Is it, in fact, much larger than 30% to 50% above? It feels like it might be based on what you're saying because I think all of us are assuming it sort of solvable over the next 3, 4 years, but it sounds like the number could be much larger.
Jeff Su
executiveWell, those are your numbers, but Robert is asking the demand in excess of supply. Is it 30% to 50%? Is it something even larger? Do we have a number to share?
C.C. Wei
executiveNo, we don't have a number to share because of -- let me say that, the gap is very big. Sorry, I don't want to make a comment on the memory, but a very big gap.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. We have about 9 minutes left. We'll come back to the floor with any questions. Let's take one from here. Evelyn Yu from Goldman.
Evelyn Yu
analystBecause we mentioned a lot on that we're going to step up our capacity growth. I'm just trying to quantify here because I noticed that during your symposium that you actually mentioned about 2-nanometer family capacity growth will be growing at around 70% CAGR from '26 to '28 and N3 plus and N5 to grow by 25% CAGR from '22 to '27. So I was just wondering, are those numbers still right assumptions today? Are we seeing actually any changes over the past quarter? And how should we compare with the non-supporting demand out there?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Evelyn's first question is around capacity growth. She knows during the symposium, we did share some 5-year CAGR growth numbers for 2-nanometer around 70% CAGR and then 3-nanometer around, I guess, I can't remember the exact, but 25%. So are those numbers still the same? Or has it changed now that our CapEx and stuff?
C.C. Wei
executiveDid we say that in Technology Symposium? We showed the chart. Okay. Now it's bigger. That's what I say.
Jeff Su
executiveDo you have a second question?
Evelyn Yu
analystOkay. Very good direction. All right. My another question touched based on the advanced packaging side. Because you always bundle the advanced packaging CapEx together with testing, mask making, and others, that's around 10% to 20% of total CapEx. And so one thing I'm trying to figure out here is that how much of that actually goes to advanced packaging alone? And because given that advanced packaging is capital intensive, less capital intensive versus front-end, so how should we think about the gap between its pricing revenue share and its CapEx share over the next few years? And well, I think finally is that, as it becomes more important, how should we think of -- maybe you should consider breaking it out as a separate CapEx item going forward?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Evelyn's question is around advanced packaging. She wants to know when we guide for the CapEx, of course, we guided in a bucket of packaging, testing, mask making and others together. Why do we not separate out just into packaging specifically? Her suggestion is, we should. But I think more -- so that's part of it, number one, the CapEx breakdown.
C.C. Wei
executiveEvelyn, let me say that. We try very hard to make sure that our CapEx number is correct, but with the flexibility between the front-end and the back-end. Sometimes we have a bottleneck. So we put more money to buy the bottleneck tools. And sometimes it is in the front-end, sometimes it's in the back-end. But in the ballpark, the percentage is just like a Wendell share with everybody. For long term, I mean, that's the back end, is about...
Jeff Su
executive10% to 20%.
C.C. Wei
executive10% to 20%, that's a big range anyway. So that we -- what I can say is that's still 10% to 20%. Because of -- as I said, actually, I'm very honest to tell you that as time goes by, some of the customers' product need more tester. You cannot believe that. I mean, so the tester in shortage, so we have to put more CapEx in the tester or in the packaging or in other areas. So that's why we cannot very specifically say which area we put how much of the CapEx.
Jeff Su
executiveThat's too specific. Yes. Okay. With the last participant, KGI, Felix Pan, thank you for being patient.
Junhong Pan
analystSo my first question is regarding to the CapEx revision. So from year-to-date, so TSMC raised the CapEx guidance by almost USD 10 billion. So can you give me some color where is the upside from? How you guys see the difference from 6 months ago? Is that from like CPU accelerator or memory components or back-end CoWoS expansion? Just the upside, how we see things differently from 6 months ago?
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. So Felix is noting in January, we guided for $52 billion to $56 billion. In April, we said closer to $56 billion, now $60 billion to $64 billion. So we have increased the CapEx guidance. What is driving this? Is it Agentic AI only? Is it packaging? Is it AI accelerator?
C.C. Wei
executiveWell, simply put, the most important reason is because of the demand continued to increase, and we feel the pressure from the customer to drive TSMC, not drive actually, to cooperate with TSMC for the capacity increase. That's one of the major reasons. The second reason is inflation. Now we buy the tools with inflation price, okay? You understand what I say.
Junhong Pan
analystOkay. So my second question is about the mature node. So people always focus on AI leading nodes, but it seems like mature nodes also seeing a very strong demand recovery and also some supply issue as well. So how do you guys see the demand-supply dynamic and pricing for the mature node? Because apparently, there's some impact from the AI crowding out effect. But mature nodes still largely depends on the consumer demand. So customer demand is still weak. So how do you guys see the demand supply dynamic for mature nodes?
Jeff Su
executiveThank you. So Felix's second question is on mature node. He notes there's lots of talk that mature nodes are seeing a strong demand recovery and the supply is very tight. So mature node pricing is very favorable or strong. So he wants to know how do we see the mature node supply-demand situation?
C.C. Wei
executiveActually, the mature node cover a lot of different segments. Only the one which related to AI is in shortage, which is the most important one, is the #1 is power management IC, because all the AI data centers need a lot of power management. And those are the mature node technology like 0.18 micron, 90-nanometer or something like that. Those are in shortage definitely. And also the sensor portion because of -- you need a lot of sensor to detect the environmental information and put into the AI data center to analyze it. Other than that, other area, just like you pointed out, the consumer product is not in a high demand. And so other segment is not so strong demand. And as I pointed out in my statement, other area, no, it's not so much of, say, in a lot of shortage, not at all.
Jeff Su
executiveOkay. Thank you. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Wendell. Thank you, everyone. This does conclude our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, and both are going to be available through our website, again at www.tsmc.com. If some of you were not able to ask your question, please feel free to reach out to TSMC IR, and we will follow up with you. So thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay well. Have a good summer, and we hope you'll join us again next quarter. Thank you, and have a good day.
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