Telenor ASA (TELNY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 11, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Frank Maaø
executiveGood morning, everyone. I'm Frank Maaø, Head of Investor Relations, and welcome to Telenor's Capital Markets Day. Today, you'll hear from a strong lineup of executives and topic matter experts as we outline our strategy and ambitions for the years ahead. And after lunch, our physical audience here at Fornebu may join our breakout sessions for deeper dives with managers and specialists. And online participants will have access to session videos later today. Now there will be 2 Q&A sessions today. The first on strategy and transformation and our Nordic businesses. And then the second one on Asia and financials. Please save questions about the other business areas and financial ambitions for the second Q&A. Now please welcome our Group CEO on stage, Benedicte Schilbred Fasmer.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveThank you, Frank, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll focus on 3 things. How we will sustain and drive growth by delivering outstanding connectivity and great services to our customers, how we will build a stronger Telenor as digital infrastructure becomes ever more important and how we will drive increasing return on capital and long-term value creation for our shareholders. And we are starting from a position of strength. We serve close to 210 million people through our total footprint in addition to connecting more than 27 million IoT units. In the Nordic, we are the telecom operator with the largest footprint with strong operations in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. In Asia, where we have 3 leading market positions through our majority-owned telco in Bangladesh and our 2 associated companies in Thailand and Malaysia. We are, as we speak, in the process of exiting Pakistan, and we expect that deal to close within the coming months. The Nordic is our core region. And over the years, it has consistently proven to be one of the most attractive and successful environments for telecom business in Europe. Some of the drivers for that are advanced economies, broad affordability, digital advanced customers, stable regulatory environment and also actually a very digitalized public sector. And this makes it a prime region for profitable growth. So given the increasing importance of our industry and our strong base in the attractive Nordic region, how do we ensure that investing in Telenor continues to pay off for our shareholders. The largest -- we continue to operate across 4 business areas and where the largest one in financial terms is Telenor Nordics, leveraging on truly world-class networks, service innovation and continuous transformation. Asia is a portfolio of positions in, as I just mentioned, 3 listed market leaders. And our agenda is to unlock further shareholder value through being an active owner and pursue potential structural opportunities. Telenor Infrastructure is the leading provider of tower infrastructure in the Nordics. And lastly, we have Telenor Amp, where we nurture innovation and growth in close to core services such as IoT and security and with a develop or divest approach. At our previous Capital Markets Day, we set out some ambitions for these areas. And through the presentation today, we will score ourselves and review how we have delivered against those commitments, along with our plans how to take it forward. So let me start with reviewing our group ambitions from back then. Our commitments were growing dividend per share, covering these dividends with free cash flow before M&A by this year and staying within our target leverage range. And I'm really proud to say that we have delivered on those goals. And despite deconsolidation of assets, merger integration costs in Asia, peak investments and unfavorable currency movements. When I joined Telenor close to a year ago, the company had been simplifying for a decade. We have sunset legacy technologies such as the copper network. We have made several exits and we have a successful entry to Finland and DNA. We have executed 2 mega mergers in Asia, and we have managed a very difficult exit from Myanmar. Then 3 years ago, we presented a reshaped Telenor at the CMD. Whilst we have taken lots of steps in order to future-proof Telenor, we still see a significant room for improvement. And now as we are entering a new phase, we are building an even more future fit, easy to understand and profitable company as we approach the end of this decade. And going forward, we will grow our top line through services-led growth and customer excellence. We will drive transformation by building a future-ready, fully cloud-based and increasingly AI-driven technology stack. And that will lead us to tapering both OpEx and capital and take down the capital intensity, particularly in the Nordics. And of course, we will have a relentless focus on return on capital and shareholder value creation. Since joining, I've focused and communicated very strongly that we have to put our customer needs at the center of everything we do. And we think that there is a room to utilize our strategic assets to an even greater extent. And we will do that by integrating more into the great Telenor execution culture, which you can touch and feel as you're here within these walls to attract and to develop amazing talent and people through our organization. And with that, with our talent, culture, our trusted networks and growing partner ecosystem, we are building a stronger company by 2030. So let me elaborate on our key priorities. First, we will drive customer excellence through embracing the customer mindset in our culture even more than we perhaps do today. And we will make sure that to become a Telenor customer is a smooth process and that to stay a Telenor customer is actually a given. And that will happen, thanks to great service and quality solutions. We will take our successful more-for-more upselling approach to the next level by something we call Services First concept, starting in Norway, and you'll hear more about that later today. We have a solid track record in service innovation, which is based on joint efforts from our people, partners and technology, including AI. And we will scale AI-powered customer interactions to deliver smarter, more targeted and improved services. And again, you'll also hear more details about that later. Lastly, we will also deliver differentiated connectivity and services to meet customer needs, particularly in the B2B segment, powered by end-to-end 5G. A key element in our continuous transformation is simplification. And that's a cornerstone in our second element, the technology-led transformation. We aim to transform our technology stack to be fully cloud-based and work systematically to become an AI-powered organization. And this will form the basis for a more effective and efficient platform, which is key for creation and delivery of services in order to cater for evolving customer needs. And I'll cover that in a little bit more detail very shortly. Thirdly, the path to Telenor 2030 requires continuous streamlining of our cost base and leveraging our already upgraded world-class networks as that is actually the basis for expecting our OpEx and capital intensity to taper, particularly in the Nordics. Lastly, all this is set to drive shareholder value, and we will, of course, scrutinize all levers for meaningful expansion on our return on capital. And this also includes our aim to simplify our group -- portfolio of group assets also over time. Now let's look at how we will execute on these priorities across our business areas. And again, you'll have more details on these topics later today. Telenor Nordics will drive growth through enhancing customer experiences and service value. We will transform and simplify our operations while extracting synergies across Nordics and making sure that we are close to our customers in all our local markets. This summer, we announced the acquisition of Global Connect's Norwegian consumer fiber business, and that highlights our approach to work selectively with attractive structural moves in order to further strengthen our position. In Asia, we'll manage our leading telco assets for long-term value, working closely with our partners. And we believe there is significant room for transformation-driven improvements in Asia, similar to what we've actually executed with great success here in the Nordics. And at the same time, we continue to look for structural value creation opportunities for these leading telco assets, aiming for simplification of our group portfolio to become more of a Nordic-centric group over the medium to long term. The focus for Telenor Infrastructure is to drive operational excellence in how we run and develop our infra assets. And they also may grow through partnerships where appropriate. And Telenor Amp have ambitions to develop positions, particularly in IoT and cybersecurity-related businesses and also leveraging partnerships where appropriate. And that will be on top on our strategy to develop and divest assets as and when we see fit. Our networks are our key strategic assets. And over the years, we've actually built some of the world's best mobile networks, covering nearly every person and almost all land in the Nordics from very dense cities to remote forest and even polar regions. And this reach is not only impressive, it's actually critical and essential for us and our customers' daily lives and for the societies we serve. Next year, we will gradually launch 5G stand-alone across the Nordics, and we are now focusing on software enablement and end-to-end 5G over the long term. Technology is at the core of everything we do. And our goal is to become an AI-powered telco with smarter networks that monitor and improve themselves, aiming to enhance the return on our network investments. Second, becoming cloud-driven or truly cloud-driven is essential for resilience, for speed and for innovation. And we are tackling this head on. We already have moved over 60% of our IT workloads to cloud-based platforms. And our ambition is to become practically cloud native, which will, again, unlock simplicity, speed, resilience, scalability and all the good things, including faster innovation. AI is top of mind in all our strategic areas. And as mentioned earlier, we will scale AI-powered customer interactions to deliver smarter, more targeted improved services. On this note, we have actually now launched a global program within Telenor called AI&I as the umbrella for all our learning and testing activities across Telenor. Our approach to AI is deliberate and it's focused. We are not there to win the AI race by developing the next language model, but to be brilliant at using AI where it actually truly matters. And we've defined 3 core areas for us in that regard: smarter customer experiences, smarter, more resilient networks and smarter tools for us, Telenorians to build AI competence. And I can tell you, this actually energizes our teams as well as myself and will position us to lead in a rapidly changing digital world. So let's zoom out a little bit and take a look at the bigger picture because our infrastructure and services represent more than ever the critical infrastructure for society. Geopolitical shifts and competition are raising the bar for high performance and giving new demands on reliable and secure connectivity. At the same time, I guess we all see new risks like undersea cable attacks, drone intrusion and cyberattacks, extreme weather and all of these type of incidents have -- we've seen just over the last few weeks and months. Our response to this is to build even more resilience, remove legacy and co-develop security services because we also do see that these challenges also create some quite interesting opportunities. We have good traction on our commercial success in integrating security into our connectivity offerings. And we do see a potential or a strong potential in providing business-critical and mission-critical services. And it's increasingly important with national champions to deliver sovereign solutions that actually safeguard sovereign national and customer interests. As we deliver safe connectivity, we also have a responsibility to make sure that we support the green transition and promote digital well-being and inclusion. Building a business that is sustainable for the long run is at the heart of our strategy. In our view, sustainable business is good business. And this is not about politics. It's what is good for our customers, what is actually expected from us from society and what builds long-term value for our shareholders. For example, increasingly adverse weather conditions are a threat to our infrastructure. And today, we set new and quite ambitious targets midterm within the areas of climate, social responsibility and governance. And we are working to improve our energy efficiency of our network, making us more cost effective and climate-friendly. We are also working with our supply chain to secure that they also have high ESG standards. And we work consistently to have a broad -- access to a broad and interesting talent base. And that is actually the key driver for us and for our policy to promote diversity in our workforce. And we also work to improve digital well-being. To us, building a sustainable business is building a good and long-term viable business. All in all, we have a robust strategy to develop our strategic assets and operations, all aimed at driving returns and long-term value. Our engine for value creation is a propeller with 3 blades, and I hope you recognize it. First, it's based on top line growth in both connectivity and value-added services through customer excellence, enabled by our world-class networks, our great people and talents and technology. Second, we pursue simplification and transformation for operational excellence by use of technology. And by streamlining our operations, we not only improve customer outcomes further, but we also drive efficiencies, both operating and capital expenditures. And finally, we have a capital allocation process with targeted and return-guided reinvestments, further enhancing our networks, our IT stack and improving and empowering our talent pool. And we believe this brings us momentum facing forward. Together, these are the levers that power our earnings and cash flow growth, expand our return on capital and, of course, supports continued growth in shareholder return over time. Today, we will also share with you our financial ambitions for the rest of this decade. And this slide shows some snips of the slides that Torbjorn will actually elaborate on a little bit later. But overall, we have a solid traction in the Nordics and where Sigvart will talk about how to look -- how we look to triple our cash flow to 2030 from our 2022 baseline. In Asia, we've gone from a portfolio of companies with operating control to owning 1 majority and 2 minority stakes in leading telcos within their respective markets. And we believe there is further potential to create shareholder value in Asia through our active ownership approach, which Jon Omund will talk to a little bit later. And for the first time, we include return on capital, Torbjorn, my darling, and it's consistent with -- as one of our parameters in our financial ambitions, and this is consistent with the strategy that I just outlined. You will also notice that we had a long horizon view also in line with our strategy to develop the company for the long term. Our free cash flow ambitions for the coming years are based on cash flow from operating company, thus excluding the dividends from our associated companies. Our confidence in the long-term dividend capacity in these companies, mainly True and CelcomDigi in Asia remains strong; however, we want to limit the presentation of our ambitions to entities that we control. Taking into account that our 2 Asian noncontrolled entities are listed separately and under strict stock exchange regulations in their respective markets. But most importantly, we have a strong commitment to our financial policy for the group. And we aim to grow dividends per share every year and to stay within our target leverage range. I may add that we have now 15 years track record in growing our dividends and are strongly committed to cover dividends with free cash flow before M&A over time. And with that, I'll hand you over to Torbjorn, who will take you through how we work systematically to -- with operational excellence and simplification. Off you go, Torbjorn.
Torbjorn Wist
executiveThank you, Benedicte. Thank you, Benedicte, and good morning to everyone. Great to see you here in our headquarter at Fornebu. So before we dive into the business areas and then, finally, what I consider the juicy bit, the financial section, I would like to take some time to talk about how we drive operational excellence and change here at Telenor. We have a long track record for continuous change within the group. However, deep and continuous change is more than just about financial performance. For us, this starts with how can we ensure that the customers are a little bit happier every day, every month compared to the customers of our competitors and how can we run our business more efficiently. To ensure this, we have multiple transformation agendas across the group to ensure operational excellence and strong customer outcomes. We make sure we have a decentralized commercial decision-making in business units, which are the closest to our customers. Therefore, we have transformation and change agendas for practically every business unit's local needs. On the business area level, our biggest effort is the Nordic transformation program that Sigvart, our Head of Nordics, will talk more about later. And then finally, on the group level, we are driving group-wide change through procurement, effective capital allocation and M&A, talent rotation and people development and, of course, technology. So let me start with the technology topic, which is at the core of everything we do in Telenor. As Benedicte laid out in brief, there are 4 key elements in our group tech agenda, making our already world-class networks smarter, simplification through migration to the cloud native, continuously enhancing customer experience through a platform that foster faster service innovation; and finally, accelerating end-to-end impact through AI. These should all be considered key enablers to deliver world-leading user experience to our customers and to fortify our security and resilience foundation. Now we are well positioned to monetize the user experience that into sustainable growth and financial returns while also driving operational efficiency. And I will now take you through a couple of these areas. The first area is smarter networks. While our network quality and performance are generally second to none, we still have a way to go when it comes to running these networks with a greater degree of automation. Today, our network operations feature a fairly good degree of basic automation of manual tasks. By bringing intelligence to the networks with data and AI over the next years, we will move from more task-based automation to networks being gradually more self-managed and self-optimized. Supervised by our experts, the networks will themselves find and fix problems and make necessary optimization to fulfill the expectations our customers have of their network experience. The left-hand side here on the chart behind me shows how we are measuring and driving automation from a basic to a far more advanced level using the TM Forum framework. Now we have an ambition to make a major leap in one particular city first with high level of network intelligence implemented by '27 shown as Level 4 on the chart and, in parallel, scale out the learnings across all our networks over the following years. By bringing intelligence into our networks, we will be addressing up to 50% of network operations costs to provide significant efficiencies with potential to optimize 20% to 30% of network processes and to improve process quality and accuracy, for instance, by resolving network issues 90% faster, reducing the time needed to resolve faults in the network from hours to minutes. The result is more consistent performance for the customer and more efficient operations within the group. Second, we also need to simplify IT operations and remove legacy complexity. Smarter networks alone will not deliver full operational excellence. Our main vehicle for simplifying our IT stack and making sure it is more future fit is to move all relevant systems to cloud-native technology. By driving simplification through the cloud, we are enabling a business transformation that will further enhance the customer experience through improved customer journeys, faster and more dynamic launch of improvement as well as new services. And that ultimately ends up in more cost-efficient processes overall. Now let me take you through some of the examples of our midterm IT aspirations. We are already on a good path with more than 60% of IT systems now being cloud native, and we aim for more than 80% by 2028 with all relevant systems being cloud native by 2030. And on this slide, we will show a few examples from across the organization of the savings we think this will bring. As for Norway, please do check out our separate breakout session on the Norway IT transformation later today. We think they are doing a great job in terms of managing this agenda. Now the final element in our group tech agenda is becoming an AI-powered telco. We focus on high-impact use cases, which is why AI is now a key driver of simplification and operational excellence across Telenor. We will digitalize manual tasks, automate the repetitive and empower our people with AI, which frees up capacity for innovation. Now our focus is on 3 domains where AI delivers impact at scale for the customer, in networks and IT and for our employees. Now let me show you some examples. First, in Grameenphone, we use AI to deliver relevant and real-time personalized app interactions to a small but increasing part of Grameenphone's 85 million customers. By connecting data across segments, products, touch points and geographies, we predict the next best action uniquely tailored to each user. Now our goal in Grameenphone is to scale this and have 80% of all customer interactions through the myGP app with a high degree of AI-driven personalization. And by doing so, we will drive both sales and customer retention. The second example is an intelligent voice agent that handles calls effectively and efficiently from start to finish using speech recognition and natural language understanding. We are currently testing this in Finland. And so far, we think this looks very promising, and we expect significant adoption within 6 to 12 months. The third example is from the technology domain. Now we are constantly softwarizing our business to serve our B2B and B2C customers better. And increasingly, our code is written and maintained by deploying AI agents through the entire product life cycle. Now this initiative is designed to accelerate delivery, reduce manual effort and improve system reliability. Beyond tech and IT, we are also driving operational efficiency across the organization, including in how we run procurement. Now procurement is a strategic enabler for us. By centralizing the procurement capabilities across Telenor, we have unlocked group-wide scale, securing better pricing and terms that reduce costs and improve quality. Now this translates into more reliable networks, better access to new technologies and better services for our customers. Green sourcing and ethical supply chains also support our sustainability ambitions. Today, 2/3 of our spend is with suppliers that have science-based targets. This is a milestone for us that has been very much driven through our procurement effort. In 2022, we set a target to increase globally managed spend by 50%, and we achieved this by expanding procurement as a service to both Telenor as well as our associates, True and CelcomDigi. Now we believe more can be done to centralize and coordinate procurement, and this effort will now be expanded with particular focus on category spend in the Nordics. Now we recently announced, as you may have seen, a strategic procurement partnership with Vodafone. Through this partnership, we can leverage combined annual spend of some NOK 300 billion. Now Telenor procurement effort manages around NOK 50 billion annually. And through the Vodafone partnership, we believe we can realize additional savings in the mid-single digits over the medium to long term. And in addition, we should be able to leverage the volume we manage on behalf of our associated companies to drive savings there as well. Now in the Nordics, we have a long track record of working with operational excellence and workforce optimization. Our transformation programs have resulted in structural efficiencies. Consistent workforce reductions have been a part of these efforts, averaging 4% for many years. We expect this to continue at a similar level going forward. And this has contributed to keeping OpEx growth significantly below inflation in our markets. Now looking into the medium to long term, we see a long runway of continued improvements from our transformation and simplification agenda. And as a result, we aim for flat to negative 2% yearly development in nominal OpEx in the Nordics over time and a reduction in OpEx to sales from around 29% in '25 to around 27% by '28. It is worth noting that we drive the same efficiency agenda in our Asian assets as well in the forest where we participate. Now going forward, we see increased capital efficiency in our core markets. We have come out of a period of substantial investments in our 5G and fiber access networks across in the Nordics. Now we see, of course, a lot of attention on future innovation and technologies like AI-RAN and even 6G. Now we, of course, will always applaud the focus on innovation, but we will take a prudent approach and monitor the development in these areas as it matures. Our anticipation is that software will be the key driver in the upcoming network technologies. All investments we do at scale will always be based on clear demand visibility as well as a return on capital focus. Now our focus now is to monetize the large investments we have made into 5G. And we see that this infrastructure has a long runway of capabilities for new services and features, which can be introduced in the years ahead. In the Nordics, CapEx intensity has declined from 19% in '22 to around 14% this year after a significant step down so far in '25. Now in terms of CapEx allocation going forward, we will see CapEx increasingly channeled towards 5G stand-alone, which is a network architecture where 5G radios are paired with a dedicated 5G network. Fixed infrastructure like the fiber upgrade we have announced in -- for MDUs in Finland, robustness, security and resilience, so important in today's global situation. Cloud-native IT to ensure we clean up and remove legacy systems that keep holding us back, and I might add, tie up a lot of unnecessary costs. On the other hand, we will be dialing back on 5G RAN rollout as this is largely complete, and we will also dial back fiber rollout in Norway given the relatively high degree of overbuild in this market. So with that, I'd like to hand over to Sigvart, who will double-click a little bit on the efforts in the Nordics. Sigvart?
Sigvart Eriksen
executiveThank you, Torbjorn. Thank you very much to Torbjorn and, hello, everyone. It is a fantastic pleasure to be back on stage for Telenor and to be here today. My name is Sigvart, and I'm heading up the Nordic business area. I'll take you through the Nordic section today. And with me, you'll also hear from Ric Brown from Telenor Norway; and Jussi Tolvanen, DNA, Finland. So in 2004, I was part of the first attempt at creating a cross-border integrated operation in Telenor. Needless to say, it failed. And we tried to merge Sonofon, now Telenor Denmark, with Telenor Mobile Norway. Many of our competitors have tried, failed and rolled back similar attempts at creating centralized integrated operations and so have we. I believe we're probably at #5 or maybe the fifth attempt in Telenor Nordics now, depending a bit on how you count. But what is really, really encouraging, though, is to see the spectacular turnaround in performance since the last CMD. We see it across all 4 BUs, which I believe it must be a sign that we've found finally a model that works, a model which combines local autonomy and decision-making close to the customer with centralized Nordic organizations and collaboration in very carefully selected areas. I will, in my presentation, share some of the secret sauce behind this success and explain why there is still significant potential for improvement despite all of this success. I've divided my section into 3 parts. Number one, I will give a bit more color on the Nordic market. Two, where we're coming from and how we've delivered on the ambitions that we set out in the last CMD. And three, finally, where we're heading next and how we plan to get there. So let's dive in and let's start with the market. So as Benedicte touched on, the Nordics is one of the world's most digital regions. People have high purchasing power and expect reliable and high-quality connectivity. The region provides a solid base for sustainable growth built on world-leading mobile networks, extensive fiber coverage and a very predictable regulation. Recent geopolitical developments have made our role even more important. There's a stronger focus on resilience and security than ever before, and there is closer Nordic collaboration since Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Telenor is uniquely positioned with the largest Nordic footprint. We have a proven track record of efficient operations and cross-border collaboration. This naturally influences our opportunity space and also serves as a backdrop for our priorities going into the next period. Over the past 2 years, our Nordic business has delivered very strong progress on the ambitions we set out at the last CMD. Revenue and EBITDA have grown solidly given -- driven by our more-for-more strategy and transformation. Excluding currency effects, our CapEx reduction target remains on track. Cost reductions progressed largely as planned. That said, we did not quite meet our 3-year OpEx ambition, but that's mainly due to inflationary pressure being stronger and also lasting longer than what we anticipated. But we said back then that the effect would be back-end loaded, and that's exactly what we're seeing now. We kept OpEx flat last year, and we are on track to 1% to minus 2% year-on-year reduction by the end of 2025. Our B2B ambitions have admittedly developed slower than planned. The red dots that you see is mainly due to price pressure in large enterprise and slower-than-expected adoption of 5G use cases. But as you can see on this page, we have delivered solid revenue growth and margin expansion across every single business unit in the Nordics. There is clearly something that must be working in this Nordic model. We're executing well in all countries, and it clearly shows in the results. So since 2022, we have more than doubled our cash flow, surpassing even our own ambitions. And in the last 2 years, performance has accelerated across all key metrics. So our focus going forward remains on free cash flow through margin expansion. We realized this with revenue growth combined with continued transformation. This means that we are entering the next period with a very strong momentum. So let's face forward and talk about where we're heading next. By 2030, we expect to generate more than NOK 15 billion in free cash flow, supported by a fully streamlined organization and operation. Alongside sustainable top line growth, we're planning for OpEx reductions in the coming 3 years of 0 to minus 2% annually and a tapered CapEx profile like Torbjorn just mentioned. That means that by 2030, we aim to deliver more than 3x the cash flow we generated in 2022. Our ambition in the Nordics is clear. To be the most trusted telco, continuously developing value-added services, delivering secure, reliable connectivity while upholding a strong financial discipline throughout. And I see Torbjorn is smiling now. Good. This ambition rests on 3 pillars as highlighted here on the left side of this slide. First, we will drive sustainable growth and expand our services-led agenda to meet our customers' needs. Second, we will continue to capture benefits from our transformation programs, both locally as well as across the Nordics. Our scale is an opportunity for us to differentiate, simplify and drive out efficiency. Third, we will build on our strength in resilience and security. So let me now zoom in on each of these 3 pillars. Our growth going forward will be services-led. B2C will remain the largest contributor to growth in the Nordics. The more-for-more strategy has been exceptionally successful for us. We have increased the value to customers in our core products while increasing ARPU. This has applied both for sales to new customers and for back book migrations of existing customers to higher price combinations. The approach has given customers higher speeds, more mobile data and more attractive hard bundled services. In Norway, we have one of the highest shares of value-adding services in the world. Now going forward, we will talk about services-led growth. This augments our more-for-more strategy with service concepts that will be sold as Services First and with connectivity embedded. This approach is adding a strong new set of tools, complementing our proven back book more form more upselling with targeted individual more-for-more sales. It adds a new growth lever to our business, laying the foundation for more sustainable long-term customer relationships and increasing our share of wallet. You'll hear Ric -- Ric, there he is. He will talk more about this in detail in a little while. However, it's worth noting that while Norway is really showing the way on this, we also see traction and potential with this approach in other Nordic markets. DNA has had one of the most successful product launches in recent times with their so-called DNA Huoleton. I'm sorry if I'm pronouncing it wrongly. It is a separate subscription with secure Internet browsing included and with the flexibility to add other security services for an additional charge, connectivity embedded. Services-led growth will also be true for B2B. The largest opportunity in B2B remains with small- and medium-sized companies, which are expected to drive around 70% of total B2B growth in the coming years. And as mentioned, we have struggled to reach our ambition in the B2B segment. Thus, we need to revitalize our core, simplify customer journeys and service portfolios and improve our sales to strengthen competitiveness. To achieve this, we're transforming our IT and service delivery platforms across our markets, both locally through BSS transformation programs, but also by leveraging scale on select Nordic delivery platforms. Our business customers are rapidly digitalizing and they need seamless cloud-based solutions that just work. From security and collaboration tools to connectivity and automated call routing systems, we are very well positioned to deliver across all our markets. An increasing demand for differentiated connectivity means we are seeing that our investments in 5G are finally paying off. We also see increasing demand for mission-critical services from sectors such as defense, health care and energy. These customers need secure, differentiated and sometimes also dedicated solutions, for example, through 5G slicing, which guarantees performance even during network congestion in times of crisis. Across both B2C and B2C, we're elevating the customer experience. Every interaction should be simple and seamless. And that's how it all comes together. Now the second of our 3 pillars is transformation. It's at the core of how we strengthen efficiency, competitiveness and scale across the Nordics. This is also probably the most important ingredient in our -- in the secret to our success. Our transformation agenda combines local initiatives in each BU with selected pan-Nordic programs where scale really creates value. We have a rigorous follow-up across the Nordics with a local transformation organization in each BU reporting into a central rig. There, all progress is tracked in a common system. So a structured approach with a focus on long-term value creation at the core has proven exceptionally powerful for us. Let's dive in and let's cover our pan-Nordic initiatives first. Our shared services setup is operational, and it's delivering results. It will provide 5% cost reduction annually on existing services to our BUs, while at the same time, improving the quality. We intend to continue expanding the scope to capture more of the cross-market synergies that we see going forward. Then moving to common products. Our go-to-market remains local, but we do leverage Nordic scale where it makes sense. Managed services and TV are very strong examples, and Ric will share more about our new and super exciting TV service that we will launch very, very soon. So stay tuned for that. We'll continue to replicate this approach to other areas where joint development adds value. AI. AI is a game changer also for us. It transforms how we serve our customers, the way we work and how we make decisions. Our focus, however, is on a few high-impact proven use cases. One of these larger initiatives is customer service automation. In Finland, all customer care contacts for consumers are AI-first, with our chat bot resolving almost half of the incoming requests. AI has enabled significant efficiency gains across all our customer care operations in the Nordics. And then alongside these larger initiatives, we're running long tail -- a long tail of smaller experiments and then we scale rapidly when we see that we get impact. Now let's talk about procurement. We centralized Nordic procurement in April to capture value and benefits from a coordinated approach. Early results such as recent content negotiations show clear impact potential. And a recent diagnostic indicates potential to unlock another NOK 1 billion of savings through a centralized program. Then finally, we're pushing hard to make our network and IT more resilient, forcefully removing legacy and moving to a cloud-native and unified Nordic architecture. This will strengthen resilience, drive efficiency and enable better customer experience. So let's double-click on the legacy removal journey. The copper decommissioning in Norway shown here is a very good example, where the only remaining costs are equipment-related rent that will be phased out as we remove the remaining equipment. Not only has the decommissioning reduced cost, but it has paved the way for fiber and fixed wireless access. This means not only can we move to a more modern infrastructure, but we can radically simplify our IT systems. In the past period alone, we have retired over 250 systems across the Nordics from our tech stack and the accounting continues. Removing legacy lets us focus on the future. It frees up capacity to invest in new technologies, and it is an absolute necessity for us to go cloud native. So far, we have focused on our pan-Nordic transformation programs. So let's turn to a few of our local programs, where most of the near-term value will be realized. So as I said, each market runs its own transformation agenda, tailored to local priorities and coordinated across the region. We'll cover examples from Sweden and from Norway later in the breakout sessions. So for this part, I will focus on Denmark, which is a great example of how local transformation create very, very tangible results. In Denmark, we are completely rebuilding our business and our customer experience. A new customer-facing IT stack enables a fully digital customer journey. Our customers will enjoy a Netflix-like experience with instant top-ups, tailored cross-sell offers, credit card-only payments and an app-first support that simply just works. And for most of us who are used to digital experiences, be it Uber, Bolt, Disney+, this sounds normally. But in the telco world, this is actually a small revolution. The new platform simplifies operations, it standardizes products and removes legacy, effectively reducing cost and complexity while improving customer experience at the same time. We'll use the Danish example as a template for thinking boldly. We can try out transformation locally and then apply what we learn and scale across all markets. The program alone is expected to deliver more than NOK 200 million in annual run rate improvement. So the third and final pillar is infrastructure and resilience. Delivering secure, resilient and future-fit connectivity is not just our responsibility, it's our strategic advantage that really sets us apart. Our multi-cloud setup combines public and private cloud to balance flexibility and control. Our world-class networks with their incredible coverage and performance enable advanced 5G services. Infrastructure resilience exemplified by dual homing and multi-redundant networks keep customers connected even during outages, sabotage or extreme weather. We're also in the forefront of cybersecurity, preventing billions of attacks each year and offering a robust portfolio of trusted security products. Trust, reliability and innovation remain at the heart of absolutely everything that we do. And Telenor Norway is out in front, having consistently demonstrated its ability to turn trust and brand position into tangible business value. And once again, Ric will touch on our security position in a little bit. So let's now focus in on our 4 Nordic operations to see how each contributes to our overall performance. While each has unique challenges, the focus everywhere is on services-led growth and transformation. This consistent focus across the business is another element of our secret sauce. Telenor Norway has delivered stellar financial results since 2022, driven by a clear focus on profitable growth and an expanding portfolio of both bundled and stand-alone services. This has resulted in an industry-leading share of value-added services. We'll also strengthen our #2 fixed position through the Global Connect acquisition, which will increase our customer base. So looking ahead, our priority is to continue growth through services, where increasingly our services-first agenda will augment our more-for-more approach. We are mid-journey in our transformation program. We'll continue simplifying operations and reinventing our IT foundation going cloud native while driving out legacy. Telenor Sweden has delivered a very successful financial turnaround over the last 2 years. We have achieved market-leading profit growth by improving both customer -- our customer base as well as ARPU. And this is in a 4-player market where we currently hold the #3 position. As you can see on the right-hand side, we see clear opportunities as the B2C market is expected to grow another 3% per year. Our 5G leadership gives us a strong platform for future profitable growth. We have Sweden's fastest network, covering 99.9% of the population, and we're now entering a monetization phase across our customer segments. After a strong turnaround, Sweden is now set for sustainable growth, building on its network advantage and growing customer trust. Now Denmark. Telenor Denmark has delivered a fantastic turnaround in one of Europe's most competitive markets. In an environment of constant price pressure, commercial discipline and effective base management have driven value creation, improving both customer satisfaction as well as ARPU. We have combined this with tight cost control with a leaner organization with faster decision-making, we have reduced our FTEs with 7% per year over the last 9 years. These efforts have translated into solid results with revenues up 4% and EBITDA growing 7% annually since 2022. So if you turn your eyes to the top right of this page, you can see that we are the #2 player in mobile with market-leading scores in both customer satisfaction as well as employee satisfaction. And Telenor Denmark will be positioned for further services-led growth with a renewed and improved platform in 2026. Now to sum up this section, the 2 most important ingredients in our secret Nordic sauce is our track record and continued focus on services-led growth and a relentless execution on our transformation agenda. That gives me reason to be optimistic also about the coming period. So with that, now I'll hand over to Jussi, who will share our exceptional journey in Finland and also talk to why we're continuing to invest in fiber. Go ahead.
Jussi Tolvanen
executiveThank you, Sigvart. It's great to be here at CMD. I'm Jussi Tolvanen, Head of DNA, which is the Telenor brand in Finland. I'm very pleased to go through our story, what we've done, a little bit of facts about our performance, our ambition and our strategy, and then I'll talk a bit more about the recent fiber investment announcement that we did on the multi-dwelling units. In Finland, we have already come a long way since Telenor acquired DNA in 2019. And we are successfully on the journey from moving from being a challenger to becoming one of the market leaders in the market with the most loved brand. As you can see from the graphs, we have delivered growth across the board. We've been adding subscribers. We've been increasing ARPU in both mobile and fixed and also reducing OpEx at the same time. So there's a lot to be proud of. The previous strategy period has been very successful for DNA, and it's thanks to our employees. We now hold #2 position in mobile and #1 position in fixed subscriptions in the market. We have captured market shares in both B2C and B2B, and it's due to our focus on customer experience. When the customers are happy, they tend to buy more. And also the -- on the customer experience, the customers reward us with one of the highest customer satisfaction scores in the market. Our networks are in great shape, and we are receiving awards on the network quality. And we actually transmit the highest amount of data subscription in our mobile networks in whole Europe. And that is a proof point of the strength and quality of our networks. But we are not standing still. We have ongoing transformation on our -- both business side and tech side as well so that we are able to remove legacy systems. We are able to continuously simplify our operations, which then frees up capacity and boost efficiency and that makes us future-fit DNA. And all of this actually, as said previously, reflects the exceptional people we have at DNA. And we want to be the best place to work and learn with our humane and one-of-a-kind working culture. Looking ahead, the Finnish market remains dynamic. We expect increasing competition. There is new MVNOs in the market. Also, we expect stronger demand from businesses for secure and reliable connectivity. Our competitors are increasing investments, especially on the single dwelling units. And also, there are certain regulatory changes in the fixed space in the market. But we have clear ambitions in place to meet these changing market demands. First of all, on the consumer side, we will -- we believe we are able to kind of sustain our growth through our differentiated dual brand strategy combined with AI-driven efficiency. On the business side, we will expand our operations and growth through secure and seamless connectivity supported by predictive automation. And finally, we are stepping up on the fiber investment to capture attractive market opportunities as illustrated in our recently announced investment to multi-dwelling units to upgrade from cable to fiber, which I will return to shortly. With this combination, we have a strong foundation and kind of forward-looking actions to be well positioned to strengthen our market position also going forward. As many of you know, we recently announced that we are investing EUR 120 million to upgrade on our multi-dwelling networks from coax to fiber. I will go through, first, why the demand of fiber is continuing to grow. Secondly, why this investment is strategically important for us. And thirdly, what kind of impacts we expect to have from this investment. Finland lags behind Norway and Sweden on fiber maturity, and it's because we have very good mobile networks and alternatives. At the same time, we see clear indication that the fiber demand in the market is increasing continuously. Our customers demand high-speed, low latency and reliable connectivity, which then powers everything from streaming and gaming at home to cloud-based tools at work. Fiber is a great technology to meet those demands. And there are several reasons why we are investing into fiber. Firstly, we want -- it's about protecting revenues. We are delivering about NOK 1.2 billion of direct revenues of fiber -- sorry, fixed in Finland and still 25% of that is based on coax networks. Secondly, fixed is a highly effective entry point for cross-sell. So more than 50% of DNA's fixed broadband customers also takes mobile from us. And thirdly, fixed improves loyalty. Customers with both fixed and mobile churn 40% less compared to mobile-only customers. There has been a lot of build-out on the single dwelling units by infrastructure investors in the market rather than traditional operators. But that segment is now largely mature. The next wave of growth will come from multi-dwelling units, and this segment actually offers attractive growth potential with higher profitability. This upgrade is an investment to design to future-proof our current and future customer base. We want to stay ahead of the rising customer expectations and position DNA for sustained leadership. We want to protect our customer base today, but also we want to win new customers going forward. From the technology point, coax is fine today, but the expectations are rising. And we want to ensure that our customers get superior experience before they look elsewhere. This also ensures our market leadership, both through growth, but also reduce churn. And that is critical -- the strong fixed position is critical for our overall long-term competitiveness in DNA. Although this is a significant investment, we believe this is a scalable investment with solid expected returns. When we do this upgrading area by area, we build once and connect many homes at the same time. This means we can avoid repeated construction work and which then maximizes the efficiency and also expands our connection ready footprint in the market. So to summarize, this is a targeted and scalable investment that strengthens our fixed position, protects our base and sets us up to lead in the Finnish market, not just today, but for the long term. Now having covered Finland, I'll hand it over to Ric to talk about Services First strategy in Norway.
Ric Brown
executiveGreat. Thank you very much, Jussi. Really inspiring to see what you guys do in Finland. Good morning, everyone. It's great to be here. My name is Ric, and I'm CMO in Norway. And I have the great pleasure today of talking to you about our -- Services First strategy for the consumer market. But before I dive into it, I just wanted to start with a quick definition of Services First. So by Services, we mean value-added services in contrast to our underlying mobile and broadband connectivity products. Specifically, we're talking at this stage about digital security and entertainment services. And then by First, we mean that if a customer first chooses a security or entertainment product from us, then it's much more likely that they're also going to buy the underlying or embedded connectivity service from us at the same time. This means that the Services First strategy allows us to take a larger share of the strongly growing security and entertainment markets, whilst at the same time, strengthening our underlying connectivity business. Now this is a theme that we're a bit bullish on in Telenor Norway. We think that we've done a little bit better job than most of our peers are driving the value-added services agenda. And you can see that to an extent in the figures that you see from our financial reporting. However, if we choose to dig just a little bit deeper into our figures, and we look at the share of our mobile revenue, which is due to the bundled security and insurance services, then we can see that already today, somewhere around about mid-30% of our B2C revenue in Norway is driven by our security, insurance and TV and entertainment portfolios, so already about mid-30s percent. And we think in the next 3 years that this is going to be the key driver of our growth and that, that percentage is going to rise to low to mid-40% in the next 3-year period. So incredibly important driver of our growth. And we've been looking for what we might call a holy grail of services first value propositions. Now what do I mean by that? Well, I mean essentially 3 things. The holy grail of a Services First value proposition would be a customer offering, which is attractive to many customers, when they have a high willingness to pay and when there's a high attachment rate of the underlying connectivity products. Now since I'm standing here talking about this today, I guess that you can guess that we think we found one of these holy grails. And in fact, we think we found 2. So after more customer interactions, more tests than you can shake a stick at, we've now have strongly validated concepts for Services First concept in security and entertainment. And that's what I want to talk about today. So let's start with cybersecurity. Our customers, the Norwegian people are worried about cyber threats. They're very worried. In fact, they're so worried that if we show them a list of different services, security services that we could deliver to them and ask them how they value them, then customers value 8 different security functionalities at NOK 50 per month or more, showing a very clear and high willingness to pay for security. But it's not just that the customer wants the products that protect them. Customers are uncertain. So they're looking for advice, help to set themselves up to be safe. They're looking for notification or warning if they're in particular danger and not least, they're looking for help if they get in trouble. So it's important for customers that, that comes from a credible local supplier who they know and trust and that who's easily available for them. Now who could that be? The Telenor brand is about the most trusted brand in Norway for digital security. 3 to 4x as many Norwegians trust Telenor for their digital security as other operators. In fact, this is so important for us that our brand promise in the market now is based on security. It's what we call hele Norges sikkerhetsnett, which roughly translated to English is, The whole of Norway's safety net. Our aim is to be the natural supplier of customers' digital peace of mind. So we have now defined and strongly validated a concept that we're calling internally fraud-stop, which is a suite of cyber protection services. And this validation is great. I mean I have to say the first time I saw these validation figures, I thought, wow! In fact, I thought it was a little bit more colorful language but because these figures are great. So as you can see behind me, stated interest from customers seeing this fraud-stop concept is at 77%. Now just as a comparison, that's more people than voted for Red, Socialist Left Labour; Green Center Liberal Christian Democrat and Conservatives at the last general election. So whilst we may disagree about politics, we can pretty much all agree that digital security is important. And then 24% of customers when shown a realistic price for this concept, state an immediate intention to buy. And this is without any prior information, without any marketing, without any salesperson encouraging them and without any special pricing and discounting, very high figure. I'd almost say through the roof for this type of test. So that's 2 of the 3 elements of the holy grail. But then the third part is that if you want to enjoy the full protection of the fraud-stock concept, you also have to be a customer on the underlying connectivity services. And this slightly strange graph on the -- on your right-hand side, indicates that of the customers who say they would buy this service, if they're already a mobile subscriber, 54% of customers said that they would then include a new broadband subscription into the concept. And if you're already a broadband subscriber, then 69% would include a mobile subscription or more, more than one into the concept. So that's then the last part of the holy grail. And for us, it's a way that we can drive fixed mobile conversion in the market without using heavy discounts. We plan to launch a concept based on fraud-stop in the first quarter. Okay. Let's just switch mode. Now go to entertainment. And here, I'm going to be talking about streaming services, think Netflix streaming services. Now according to our customer surveys, 33% of Norwegians say they've lost control of which streaming services they subscribe to. 40% are frustrated that they can't find the content that they want to watch or it's not available to them. And whilst 90% of people in Norway use streaming services, almost none of them understand how much they pay each month for that. So we've developed this concept that we call Streamix, which is a pretty simple concept in many ways, but it's something that fixes these pain points for our customers. It gives customers one place to buy their streaming services at a fixed monthly price. So customers can choose 3 services, let's say, HBO Max, SkyShowtime and Viaplay. And then on a monthly basis, they can swap in and out other services. So after a month, you might want to swap one of those out with HBO Max. And you can do this for a fixed monthly price of NOK 499 or if you're a Telenor mobile customer, NOK 399. Now for that price, you get your 3 services. You get the standard version without any of that irritating advertising. But you also have an opportunity for an extra charge to upgrade to premium versions of the services. So for example, including premium content like football or you can add a service 4, 5 or 6 again for an additional charge. And again -- and for launch, we have what we think is a real stellar list of content providers. So we have, as part of our launch package, Netflix, HBO Max, Viaplay, SkyShowtime, Apple TV and TV 2 with an upgrade possibility to Disney+, most -- almost all of the really big players in the market. And with this content lineup in these prices, almost 7 out of 10 customers express interest and a whopping 30% state an immediate intention to buy, again, off the charge for our figures. And again, in a similar way to Svindlestopp, we see there's also an impact on the underlying attachment to the connectivity services, again, allowing us to drive that business. So Services First is about delivering great new customer experiences. It's about fixing real pain points and it's about making a step-up in the way that the customers interact with and experience us. But it's also, for us, a way to sweat our market assets. We've got a really strong brand. We've got strong distribution. We have 3.8 million paying customer relationships, which create 13 million customer interactions every year. So you can think of that as a foundation in our business. And then we can layer on top of that, that we now have a state-of-the-art data analytics and AI platform from Google that allows us increasingly to target just the right offer to the right customer at the right time in the right channel at the right price. And that takes us back to what Sigvart talked about on how this augments the more-for-more strategy. So whilst more for more is about taking existing product areas and creating more value in the existing products, both back book and front book, Services First Is new value propositions to customers. It's about building individual one-to-one upsells, which then over time, lead to new customer bases that we can then do the same sort of value creation in the future. So we think that this is the key to our growth. We think that we deliver more deeper long-term customer relationships. It makes us less vulnerable to price attacks on individual product areas, and it's the key to accelerating our growth as we move forward and contributing to the NOK 15 billion in cash flow we expect to see in 2030. So just a last word. In case you're wondering, Streamix launches in the market on Monday. So if you're a Norwegian, [Foreign Language]. Thank you.
Frank Maaø
executiveThank you, Ric. Thanks for a great and engaging note. So please, you might actually remain on stage, Ric, because now we're actually going for the first Q&A round for the day. And I would like to also welcome our Group CEO, Benedicte; and Torbjorn, the CFO; and also Sigvart, Head of Nordics on stage with me. So we'll now invite the analysts to ask their questions. And an important note, please save questions relating to the next part of the agenda regarding the other business areas and the financial ambitions to the second Q&A we have today. Also, please limit yourself to only 1 question to give everyone a chance. And we have quite less than 20 minutes, so please keep it short, and then we'll have a break. Operator, are you there?
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]
Frank Maaø
executiveWhile the queue forms, we will start with questions from the physical audience here today in Oslo. So to those in the room, please wait for the microphones, will be passed on here. And we'll start with the first question from Nick Lyall in the front row here. So if you could pass Nick the microphone, please, that would be great.
Nicholas Lyall
analystIt's Nick Lyall from Berenberg. I'll keep to one as you say. But you talked about all levers on ROCE being used potentially. Anything new? Why not talking about M&A in Sweden and Denmark, for example, which seems a very, very big lever in terms of synergies you might be able to use. Could you talk us through maybe some of the criteria you think about when you're assessing that for the long-term plan? And what might be the restrictions at the moment?
Frank Maaø
executiveBenedicte, do you want to take that question?
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveSure. We certainly do see that also some of the Nordic markets would benefit from structural changes. And we would definitely be on the alert if there's anything moving in that space. However, I do not think it's wise to communicate any details around that until we have something concrete to communicate.
Nicholas Lyall
analystCan I just maybe come back on that. I mean you did mention this back in sort of Q1 or Q2. So is it just a difficult slow process in terms of selling? I mean what's holding things up in a sense? Because you seem prepared and the plan is prepared as well. So what's taking time?
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveWell, I guess, I mean, first, elements in the market have to be on the move, right? And there has to be some opportunities to grasp that one thing. The other thing that is still in the open is, of course, whether there will be a regulatory environment allowing structural changes to happen. We do see now that there is some positive signs in EU on this point. But any transaction in any country in Europe would require approvals both on a country level as well as on the EU level. And that's -- the jury is a bit out still. But we hope to see some positive movements there as well.
Frank Maaø
executiveThe next question is from Felix Henriksson of Nordea. And Andrew, we will get to you next.
Felix Henriksson
analystFelix from Nordea. It's on CapEx, where you've communicated the desire to lower the capital intensity in the Nordics down to 11% to 12% by 2030. So I'm just curious on what kind of assumptions that number sort of bakes in, in terms of, let's say, newer business opportunities relating to AI-RAN, 6G and also sovereign cloud for that matter. Are those something that are sort of embedded in that number?
Frank Maaø
executiveTorbjorn?
Torbjorn Wist
executiveYes, sure. The -- as we made clear -- as I made clear in my presentation, we've gotten to a point now where sort of 5G RAN rollout, et cetera, is -- we've kind of passed that. So the focus now will be more on adding features that will allow 5G stand-alone and like. And if you look at the profile of it, we do see a tapering off, fcall it, the network related, but a continued investment in IT, which is, of course, important in part due to the transformation, taking legacy out and also adding new features over time. And like with any CapEx, this will be based on the visibility we have today. We note, like everyone else, the chatter in the market about 6G AI-RAN, et cetera. We think we encourage, of course, innovation. But we think that 5G has a long runway of features and capabilities that kind of removes the need to look at those type of upgrades in sort of the near to medium term, I would say. So those are some of the fundamental things that underpin our CapEx forecast.
Frank Maaø
executiveYes. And we will take the next question from Andrew Lee of Goldman Sachs.
Andrew Lee
analystJust a simple question on the EBITDA growth, hopefully. You've guided to low to mid-single-digit EBITDA growth on a compound basis over the next 3 years for the Nordics. You presented your guidance you had set out in 2022, which was for mid-single digits. You still sound pretty confident in top line growth, sound pretty confident in cost cutting. You've delivered more than mid-single-digit growth even ex the ICE impact. So what's getting worse and driving you to guide to worse EBITDA growth than you've delivered and guided to in the past?
Torbjorn Wist
executiveCould I perhaps -- maybe we should hold the financial questions to later when I have the financial section so that we can prioritize questions on the first part of the presentation, if that's all right, Andrew, and then we will try to address your question then.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveWe'll elaborate on this in detail in the next section. So that's why.
Andrew Lee
analystOkay. So just a Nordic question then operationally, what's getting worse?
Sigvart Eriksen
executiveSwitch it to me then. I think in all fairness, we've been running consistently now with transformation over a long period of time. And I think particularly the last 3 years, you've seen what has come out in terms of cost improvements, et cetera. So to a certain degree, we've taken some of the low-hanging fruits. So I think having said that, we have also built up a very, very strong muscle in managing the transformation, both locally as well as across the Nordics. So the difficulty is increasing, but I also think that our competency in actually running these changes has increased as well. So that's why I remain sort of pretty optimistic with our ability to continue this journey.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. Thank you. Thank you for that. We'll have the next question from...
Max Findlay
analystI'm Max Findlay from Rothschild & Co. Redburn. You've clearly discussed the benefits for AI, both on the top line and for your OpEx, but I'm interested to know what are the threats. One risk appears to be perhaps accelerated churn if AI enables consumers to more easily switch providers and have clearer visibility on tariffs. So making products like Streamix less relevant in Norway. What do you see the risks of AI being?
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveThat's an interesting question. You might want to elaborate together with me saying that. I think I'd like to start with that we actually have many AI projects across Telenor in order to make our operations more effective. And as you say, we are doing that mainly to -- on the areas where we can actually control and use AI to improve our operational efficiencies. How it pans out in the market on consumer services and how they apply it? I mean, it's just early days to say, isn't it? I mean it will be -- it's difficult to predict. But I think Jussi has the answer, the holy grail to that.
Jussi Tolvanen
executiveNot a holy grail, but how we try to look at AI is that it has more or less kind of 4 buckets. So first one is the kind of personal productivity in our own operations. The second one is how do we redesign and reinvent business processes and innovation. Third one is about how do we monetize AI-driven products. And fourth one is about agentic AI. and what it means in practice internally, but also how the customers are going to use Agent AI going forward. So those are the buckets that we are all the time analyzing and try to find solutions and offerings based on those buckets.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. Thanks for that. I think we'll have the next question over here from Ondrej of UBS.
Ondrej Cabejšek
analystCongratulations on the presentation. I had a question on the growth in the Nordics because you've had one of the strongest top lines in the sector for a couple of years now. A big part of that is, obviously, as you flagged, been, at least in Norway, some of the value-added services that you've scaled up to some degree. I was wondering, with this new presentation, you seem to be highlighting a couple of material opportunities. So how do you see the contribution from value-added services going forward? And then how do you, I guess, emulate the success from Norway into other countries in the Nordics, if at all?
Frank Maaø
executiveSigvart?
Sigvart Eriksen
executiveYes, I can maybe start and then, Ric, if you want to chime in...
Frank Maaø
executiveWe don't have that much time for that.
Sigvart Eriksen
executiveSo I'll take it then. No, I think without sort of repeating my presentation, I think this is a key focus. When we look at the growth going forward, we see mainly -- or one of the key contributors is the services and the value-added services. Ric has pointed to 2 of the really exciting concepts that we are just about to launch. And those -- or what we constantly do now is to replicate those successful concepts across the Nordics. And actually, Streamix is inspired from Denmark and a concept called CBB Mix, which was launched already some time ago. So this is how we work together in order to take inspiration and also scale those concepts that work.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. With that, I think we'll need to go to the online audience to also give them a chance to ask their question. Operator, are you with me?
Operator
operatorYes. So our first question will come from Ajay Soni at JPMorgan.
Ajay Soni
analystI've got one question just on Finland. So it appears that the coax upgrade continues to increase beyond 2028. So could you provide a bit of detail on how many households you would have upgraded by the end of 2028? And then how many households are still remaining to be upgraded beyond this?
Frank Maaø
executiveJussi?
Jussi Tolvanen
executiveYes. So currently, we have about 700,000 customers connected to our fixed broadband. And as I said, about 25% of that is based on coax. So by the end of '27 -- sorry, '28, we -- our plan is to move it all to be based on fiber. So that's where we are. At the same time, of course, we expect to drive growth in the customer base at the same time.
Frank Maaø
executiveGood. I hope that answers your question. We'll take the next question from the line.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Ulrich Rathe at Bernstein.
Ulrich Rathe
analystSorry, I'm facing a video constraint here. My question is on the services in Norway. If I understood the presentation correctly, you're including the TV revenues in the revenue share of the VAS? Could you comment on the outlook that you see for linear TV? Obviously, there is an active debate in sort of the balls and the bells. What are your assumptions with regard to the VAS element of the linear TV service?
Ric Brown
executiveOkay. I'll take that. Yes. So the first question is that the TV revenues are included in the numbers that I was sharing on the value-added services. So that's a simple yes. We've seen a decline in the usage of linear TV in the market. We expect that, that decline will continue. What we're focused on now is to ensure that no matter how the customers want to consume their TV content, we have an appropriate solution for them. So we're, in a sense, derisking our business from exactly whether that's going to tip a little way -- a little up or a little down by making sure that we have the Streamix concepts and some other stuff we're doing on our TV and entertainment business to make sure that we always have a relevant offer to the customer and that we can continue to drive that as a good and healthy business for ourselves.
Frank Maaø
executiveThank you, Ric. Do we have one more? Thank you, and that concludes our online question for this round. We have a question from Christoffer Bjørnsen with DNB Carnegie over here. And that will be our last question before we need to take the break.
Christoffer Bjørnsen
analystSo on the CapEx side, you noted that you've been dialing down the fiber investments over the next couple of years, except in Finland, but you still have quite a material customer base of households in Norway still on cable or coaxial. So just interested in hearing your view on how you think about those in the years ahead. Will they just remain on coax and be up for grabs by competitors? Or are those included in the plan to kind of convert those to fiber?
Frank Maaø
executiveYes, Sigvart.
Sigvart Eriksen
executiveYes. I think we've signaled a somewhat tapering of the investments, but that doesn't mean that we are stopping the investments. So we'll continue to invest also in the Nordic market and rolling out fiber in the coming period. So I don't think we're guiding on the exact number, but that's the general answer is that it's tapering, but not stopping.
Frank Maaø
executiveAnd by the way, we'll have a breakout session on the Nordic fixed markets and comparing those later today at 12:30. But for now, that concludes our first Q&A round for this CMD. We'll have a second one later, as mentioned. And now we'll have a 10-minute break. And please be back here at 10:30 sharp. Thank you. At 10:50, of course. 10:50 sharp. [Break]
Jon Revhaug
executiveOkay. Hello, everybody. Welcome back. My name is Jon Omund, and I am Head of Telenor Asia. So let me now take the next few minutes to wake you -- to wake you up again -- to walk you through the performance of Telenor's portfolio in Asia and our plans going forward. Here something happened. At the 2022 Capital Markets Day, we unveiled a strategy for Asia that is to modernize and improve our portfolio of companies to continue to deliver leading cash returns. So we have created market-leading players in Malaysia and Thailand through Southeast Asia's largest telco mergers where synergies are realized through network integration and digitalization of operations. And by these mergers, we have also taken down the direct risk to Telenor. Grameenphone in Bangladesh continues to be the #1 player in that market and has continued its transformation journey to drive operational efficiency. Then we announced back in 2023, in December 2023, the sale of Telenor Pakistan and we did that as we did not see a path to a #1 position in that market. That sale has recently received approval from the Competition Commission of Telenor Pakistan, and we expect the transaction to be completed and the process to complete quite soon now. Overall, Asia has delivered well on the capital market 2022 strategic ambitions. However, we did fall short of achieving the accumulated free cash flow ambition set to NOK 12 billion to Telenor Group. This is primarily due to FX effects and macro conditions. In addition, there are -- or there was a NOK 1.7 billion settlement with the regulator in Bangladesh. And we have also had disputes on tax in Telenor Pakistan. Looking at Asia, we have fundamentally reshaped the portfolio from having operational control, with the risk that comes related to that to now having one controlled company and 2 associated companies, which has taken down the risk exposure to Telenor Asia significantly. Across these large markets, we serve around 200 million customers, which is approximately 95% of the customer base of Telenor. On a 100% basis, the total revenue of our assets in Asia generated NOK 113 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. So the portfolio value currently stands at NOK 90 billion, up from NOK 79 billion before the mergers. So our total shareholder return ownership adjusted grew by 27% in that same 3-year time frame. So we have unlocked synergies. We have strengthened balance sheet and positioned our assets for sustainable value creation and higher dividend capacity going forward. From a regional perspective, Asia has a robust long-term growth potential. This is driven by advanced connectivity and digital infrastructure and services that our companies provide to these markets. And our strategy is to be an active owner and develop our portfolio of companies with the perspective of long-term value creation. On this slide, we highlight 3 areas that strengthen our growth prospects in the region. First, across our 3 markets, the middle class is expected with a higher disposable income. This part of the population is expected to grow to almost 100 million people in the coming period. So that increases this share of the population from 28% to 34%. Second, in Grameenphone, 40% of the customer base are not on data yet. This represents a ready and untapped potential for future growth. So for example, the country's young youth-based population, they need data for education, for entertainment, for financial services and social connections going forward, and they do so at increasingly speed. And then lastly, in the mature markets, Thailand and Malaysia, their digital economies are expected to continue to grow. Southeast Asia is estimated to reach USD 1 trillion. I have to read it right, USD 1 trillion in gross merchandise value by 2030. So this figure represents the total value of goods and services sold online, and it really showcase the region's accelerating shift into a digital commerce environment and the significant opportunity that telco players have acting as a backbone for this growth. So let me now take you through the assets in detail, focusing on growth levers and how we drive efficiency and our ownership priorities. Starting in Bangladesh. Grameenphone is strategically important asset within the portfolio, and it has demonstrated a solid execution and paying steadily dividends over the past years in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Growth will come from the ongoing shift from voice to data. And to capture this, Grameenphone will simplify and monetize a data-centric product portfolio, enabled by improvements in the overall data network experience. The shift is ongoing, and we see positive signs in the market responding to our drive for a simplified data product and protecting ARPU in the market. We are also positive to a potential low-band spectrum, and we will carefully evaluate other needed spectrum renewals with capital discipline and long-term evaluation in mind. The transformation in GP includes the use of AI to drive growth and a shift to a cloud-based technology and continued organizational changes. So Grameenphone has, for example, started now this -- or in '24, a full transfer of their [ 8 14 ] IT systems into a cloud-native setup, simplifying IT and driving a better customer experience based on the better sort of less IT incidents, better processes and closer to customer, higher innovation speed. And in Grameenphone, besides driving performance and steady dividends, we will ensure that GP continues to focus on sustainability, on governance, on compliance and responsible business practices also in the future. Let me spend a couple of words on how Grameenphone will use AI to create value across 3 pillars. First, AI for growth. In a pilot with Meta, we saw revenue growth in the high double digit with sales of a chatbot offering, which is personalized -- which is creating personalized offerings on myGP app. Torbjorn mentioned this in the OE earlier today. These are really promising results. Over 20 million or close to 25% of the customer base in GP, they are daily users on the myGP app, and they use it to stream content to get news updates and to play games, et cetera. So Grameenphone, they continue to digitalize the distribution and touch points with the aim to growing subscribers on myGP app by double digits over the coming 5-year period. Second, AI for efficiency. AI is embedded in operation. It's primarily to drive network and energy optimization. With the AI technology, the team can now forecast, predict and optimize energy consumption at the base stations and Grameenphone are targeting a NOK 1 billion OpEx savings over the coming 5 years by the use of machine learning and AI technology in their operations. And finally, AI for people, which we call AI&I. This is about embedding AI into everybody's life in operation, so we can secure that they're maximizing their productivity in daily work. Baseline AI modules are mandatory for all from field force to CXOs. They are supplemented by classroom learnings for targeted groups, and we have deep dive certification courses for AI champions and domain experts. As Benedicte mentioned earlier today, AI&I will now be used as the umbrella for AI competence building across the Telenor Group. Then I move to the associated companies. Firstly, these mergers represents the largest mergers across the region ever executed in our industry. There are many examples of how these type of mergers can fail. There are many reasons for that. However, we are very pleased to see how these 2 mega mergers have successfully executed in the first 3-plus years now. So let me start with Thailand. The successful execution of the integration plan and synergy realization from network and organizational development has really resulted in a strong financial performance with 3 consecutive quarters of profits behind us now. So this includes a reduced CapEx to sales significantly. The company has improved the EBITDA by THB 7.5 billion, implying a margin expansion of 15 percentage points since amalgamation. They report an EBITDA margin of more than 65% now. At the same time, they reduced leverage and improved interest rates and interest costs. True have reduced more than 35% of the headcount since amalgamation by the end of Q3 2025, significantly ahead of the plan set forth. In total, and as a result of this, market capitalization of True has increased by 37% since amalgamation. True now has the most comprehensive spectrum portfolio across low, mid and high bands in the country, and it's leading in offering connectivity in Thailand. You might saw it a few days back, True has declared an interim dividend for Q3 '25 of 125% of its net profits, and we expect the final dividend to be declared for Q4 '25 at the AGM next year. In addition, the Board have suggested its intention to propose to pay no less than 50% of net profits on a semiannual dividend payout going forward. So True has consistently outperformed its integration targets and delivered improvements ahead of schedule. And Nakul, True CFO, is having a breakout session later today. He will explain more on the journey that they are on. So while some macro risks slower-than-expected tourism, for example, persist. We strongly believe in the resilience and the growth focus of this company. It's transformation. It's transforming its operation. It's a 2-player market, and it gives us strong belief that this will be value creating for Telenor going forward. Moving to Malaysia. CelcomDigi has a leading position in terms of both subscriber and revenue market share. We also see very solid execution of the integration of the 2 companies CelcomDigi has concluded a full network integration with a modernization of all 14,000 sites, providing a better customer experience for consumers and enterprises. In a very competitive market, the company has maintained a very strong focus on financial discipline, and they have delivered consistent value to Telenor paying NOK 3.5 billion in dividends for the past 3 years. So in the next phase of transformation, CelcomDigi will accelerate momentum in mobile and convergent growth with an even stronger focus on operational efficiency. As Torbjorn pointed to, in Q3, we continue to see short-term challenges from an unprecedented 5G approach in the country. DNB or the Digital Nasional Berhad is a government-owned special purpose vehicle established to operate a single national 5G network. However, after the establishment of this DNB, the regulator decided to launch a second 5G license, which was awarded to the smallest operator in the country. So in our Q3 presentation, we highlighted that DNB has described its distressed financial situation in its financial report. So DNB's shareholders are working closely with the government to improve its financial and operational position, and there are constructive discussions with the government, particularly focused on securing competitive 5G spectrum to help improve DNB's financial and operational position. So short term, it is therefore key for Telenor as an active owner to work with partners to support CelcomDigi in strengthening DNB and by that, the competitiveness and profitability of CelcomDigi's 5G offerings to the market. So a few words on what we mean with this term active ownership. Basically, we influence and secure priorities through strategic governance, talent deployment and operational excellence across our associated companies. Under the active ownership model with equal representation in Board and Board committees in the associated companies. Our companies are driven to focus on performance to deliver shareholder value. We ensure good strategy by deploying right talents and capabilities in key positions. As an example, 56% of top management in our associated companies, have come from Telenor. So to summarize, the Asia portfolio today has been restructured well and derisked with a smaller direct Asia exposure to Telenor shareholders compared to before when we had full control of a larger number of assets. Our associated companies have increased market value, and they're well placed for a stronger free cash flow and dividend capacity for the long term. Despite some short-term challenges, conditions are in place for a strengthened free cash flow and dividend capacity. The headwinds to the free cash flow is that we expect in '26 and '27 can be summarized in a few bullets. So first, the macroeconomic recovery in Bangladesh is taking somewhat longer than anticipated. So it may slow the overall market momentum in the country. Secondly, with the mounting transition from voice to data, we will further improve the data network capacity and the coverage of data network to ensure that Grameenphone's position within data is competitive going forward. This will add some CapEx on top in the short to medium term. In addition, a potential low-band spectrum and up to 4 license renewals in the second half of 2026 may imply a short-term step-up in spectrum payments since the majority of the spectrum bands up for renewal was paid a number of years ago. So you can look at the Investor Relations spectrum resource page for details regarding this. Then third, the ongoing restructuring of DNB in Malaysia could create transitional challenges for CelcomDigi And finally, we hope to conclude the transaction in Telenor Pakistan in the next months. This will reduce the overall Asia cash flow from 2026 and onwards. So for reference, Telenor Pakistan is expected to give approximately NOK 500 million in 2025. So to wrap up, our long-standing presence in Asia uniquely positions us to be an active owner on driving our companies to drive -- to create value for long term. We are confident that the assets will transform and be future fit in terms of organization, in terms of customer experience, in terms of transformed IT and networks and the use of modern technology and AI. And while we operate with the perspective of developing the value of our assets and create long-term value, I will repeat what Benedicte said earlier and what you will hear Torbjorn state that we do look for simplification options and structural opportunities for these assets that create value to Telenor in the medium to long term. So with that, Torbjorn, over to you.
Torbjorn Wist
executiveThank you, Jon Revhaug. Yes, the mic is on. Before we get to the financial section, I will say a few words about our 2 smaller, but still important business areas, infrastructure and AMP. And I think AMP is a very appropriate name having seen the Head of AMP play electric guitar in front of 3,000 employees last week and did a wonderful job. So we were all amped up. Now infrastructure manages our Nordic towers, our sovereign data center as well as the AI factory initiative. AMP overseas smaller businesses at various life cycles and some of them, we will be looking to grow, perhaps integrate them to the core, whereas others, we will look to exit. Now looking at the period behind us. And broadly speaking, we think we have met the ambitions set out for these business areas at the last CMD in 2022. If we start with the infrastructure area, we significantly improved the operational and financial performance of the tower business. Aside from the sale of 30% of Telenor fiber in Norway to KKR, we have not -- underline, not been pressing ahead with divestments in the infrastructure area due to one, changes in the macro and geopolitical landscape that Benedicte showed with increased focus on ownership and security of infrastructure. And we also see that there is heightened caution amongst operators on the risk-benefit analysis of infra divestments, having been surprised by price adjustment clauses and the like. Now as I've said in the past that many of the investor meetings we've had throughout this year, we prefer to see [ infra stake ] divestments as an optionality we would like to preserve should the need arise. This is not something we are exploring actively. In AMP, we said we would monetize noncore assets focus on IoT and security and enter into partnerships. We have done all of that. We have secured more than NOK 6 billion in proceeds from exits, including Allente, which has now received regulatory clearance and should close this month. Cyber defense has been established, and Connexion has continued focus on Nordic collaboration to serve our B2B customers with IoT-related services. Now the starting point for the infrastructure business area was to address our own needs for a sovereign, secure and sustainable infrastructure and to optimize the performance while increasing asset utilization and returns by sharing this with external customers. In Towers, Telenor has the largest site portfolio in the Nordics we have overdelivered on the profitability increase forecasted for the tower business at our previous CMD. We will continue to drive operational excellence whilst retaining optionality to explore strategic partnerships in the future. In addition, we have a dedicated AI infrastructure with the first sovereign AI factory in Norway already being commercially operational. This niche position will be scaled with demand and any future investments will, of course, depend on demand as well as a good return on capital employed profile. And the same applies with our data center JV Skygard, which is also exploring inorganic growth opportunities. Telenor controls the largest tower portfolio in the Nordics. We have a clear #1 position in the Norwegian market. And if you include the JV side, a shared #1 position in Sweden and Denmark. Rising external revenues and efficiency gains have been the main drivers of profitability increases since 2022. Now we will continue driving return on these assets through continued streamlining of the operations. As seen -- I think you need to flip a slide, thank you. As seen on the left here, as legacy fixed technology essentially copper has been decommissioned, there are thousands of towers nonmobile sites that are no longer needed. These costs will be removed from the cost base over time. And as shown in the graph in the middle, Towers has delivered a significant uplift in profitability over the years. Now we will continue to streamline the operations. We will continue to automate processes and invest in renewal and resilience, ensuring these strategic assets remain secure and ready for monetization should we choose to do so in the future. Then moving to our business area, AMP. Here, we develop businesses that are close to core or if relevant, we divest them to stronger and more natural owners. We have defined 2 areas where we look to build a broader position, namely in IoT as well as security. Now transformation is also a key prominent focus in AMP where we seek to revitalize key businesses and make selected investments supporting our core business. Key to this is to leverage the know-how outside the boundaries of Telenor also with the use of partnerships to learn, adapt and to share risk. When owners may be better suited to develop an asset, we will exit as we've done with Telenor Satellite, Working Group 2 and most recently, Allente. So in sum, in AMP, we have a focused growth approach and a strict portfolio management. The majority of AMP's customers are targeting B2B customers. As mentioned, a key focus for AMP is to build leading Nordic B2B service positions in IoT and the cybersecurity area. Now let me share a few words on some of these key assets. So if you start from the upper left on the slide, Telenor Connexion is the largest single contributor to AMP's EBITDA and free cash flow. Connexion is the fifth largest operator in IoT in Europe and #10 globally with managed IoT connectivity, serving international customers in over 200 countries. If you look on the right-hand side of this slide, we have KNL in Finland, which offer mission-critical services for defense. KNL provides proprietary and ultra-secure tactical defense communication solutions across long distances. This is a small but rapidly expanding niche with high barriers to entry. Now this company recently signed a contract with both the Finnish and the Swedish defense forces and is a very scalable business with software-like margins. Now in a period with increased focus on defense cooperation, we believe it is very, very helpful to have dialogues with defense procurement officials in all of the Nordic countries. Finally, we have Telenor Cyberdefense, which was carved out from Telenor Norway last year, providing managed security and surveillance for business customers. All in all, while not our largest business areas, infrastructure and AMP remains key for us to ensure a resilient and innovative development of the group going forward. So now let's get to the financial review and ambitions. Now at my first quarterly presentation in February, I highlighted 3 priorities that was important to us. One was delivering on our promises for 2025, two, was our strong commitment to shareholder returns; and three, was to manage capital for long-term value creation. I'm pleased to report we're tracking well across all 3 parameters. And the latter two shareholder remuneration return focus are two extremely important fundamentals as we move forward. While reported service revenue growth have declined over time due to structural changes in the portfolio, our current businesses have been growing nearly 3% per annum. This has been driven by an effective commercial strategy in the Nordics, a successful transition of copper to fiber in Norway and a move towards a more resilient position in Asia with notably lower risk. Since 2020, we have seen steady growth in both service revenues and EBITDA. Now as you can see from the first and second charts on the left behind me, Service revenues and EBITDA growth averaged more than 3% in the period, driven by the Nordics. The third chart shows group free cash flow, which is on track towards our -- around NOK 13 billion 2025 outlook. It is clear our Nordics business area is now our main cash flow engine as a result of the successful commercial and operational execution Sigvart touched on, combined with a tapering CapEx profile. As Sigvart said, free cash flow from the Nordics have more than doubled since 2022. And Nordics is also the key driver on return on capital employed, growing from 7% to 11% over the last years despite the large investments we made. You can see that the chart on the right. As you can see, we've had an average ROCE at the group level of 12.3% since 2020. Note that in this number, there are some special accounting effects relating to True and CelcomDigi that have affected this group metric over time. Now as we said at our Q3 presentation, we have a group ROCE of 13.8% if you exclude our associated company, which at present doesn't contribute much on the numerator, but a lot on the denominator. And this further highlights the potential to also improve ROCE over time with growth in the results from our associated companies. All business areas contributed positively to free cash flow in 2024 and 2025, led by the Nordics. The chart behind me shows free cash flows by business area on a gross basis with corporate function, interest cost and parent company taxes in the gray area below the X-axis. The red dotted line shows the net free cash flow level. As mentioned, this year, we expect that free cash flow before M&A will come in at around NOK 13 billion. In Q3, we generated NOK 4.2 billion in free cash flow, which was up 50% year-over-year. Note that in Q4, we will receive close to NOK 0.6 billion in dividends from True post withholding tax. So thank you, Nakul. And a final catch-up dividend payment from Allente of around NOK 0.3 billion. And we also expect positive working capital inflow. We have a return mindset at Telenor with a key focus on how to expand ROCE. Now as mentioned, our focus reaches across all levers from top line growth to OpEx and CapEx efficiencies and to capital allocation-related levers. So first, let's cover the internal perspective on capital allocation. We have invested a lot over the years. Investment and reinvestment will always continue in telecoms, but CapEx has started to taper. And all investments we make will leverage on our existing strategic assets and be driven by incremental return perspectives. On the inorganic side, we will always be looking for value-accretive acquisitions, value-driven partnerships as well as value-creating divestment opportunities, resulting in portfolio simplification of the Telenor Group over time. Next, let's turn to how we think about capital management by business area. In the Nordics, we're gradually shifting capital from network build-out to more service innovation and IT transformation, driving sustainable growth and higher returns. The key aim is here to leverage our existing world-class infrastructure by creating great services for our customers and by transitioning into a cloud-native stack and deploying AI, as we talked about earlier. We also see opportunities for value-accretive transactions in the region and have been very clear publicly on our view on the merits of in-market consolidation from 4 to 3 players. In Asia, our organic value creation focus is to drive long-term cash flows and dividends in cooperation with partners. We're channeling capital prudently towards network development, IT transformation and AI initiatives as well as ensuring we have access to just the right amount and type of spectrum. As Jon Omund talked about, Grameenphone has had subdued CapEx below 9% of sales over the past year. But given the increasing data demand from its customers, we will need to dial up this a little bit to ensure a competitive data position in the market. Our telco assets in Asia are mostly financial, and we will manage them for long-term value maximization, cash flows and dividends. At the same time, we have been clear that we will look to create further value by simplifying our portfolio to become more of a Nordic-centric company over the medium to long term. As I've just talked about, we will also have a very prudent and active capital allocation relating to infrastructure and AMP. Then turning to the external perspective on capital allocation. We are very proud of our 15-year track record of consistent growth in dividends, complemented by buybacks and special dividends when appropriate. Our commitment to our shareholders is clear. We remain focused on delivering strong, predictable cash returns and upholding our dividend policy, despite a certain decline in our asset base over time as we have simplified the group. So we remain strongly committed to ensuring appropriately supported and growing cash returns to our shareholders over time. Telenor is in a solid financial position with long-term funding and a well-diversified financing that provides stability, predictability and flexibility. We have a split rating from the rating agencies with A- from S&P and Baa1 from Moody's, both with a stable outlook. As such, Telenor has very good access to the debt capital markets. Our bond portfolio is well balanced, and we have an average maturity of 4.8 years, which helped reduce refinancing risk. To maintain financial flexibility and reduce liquidity risk, we also have a EUR 1.8 billion multicurrency [ RCF ] in place. About 63% of our debt is fixed with an average interest rate of around 2.6%, and our overall interest rate is currently 2.7%. Over the past few years, our leverage ratio has moved within the target range of 1.8 to 2.3x, averaging towards the top end of the range. Occasionally, we've seen it tick above, mainly due to currency fluctuations as well as the timing of our biannual dividend payouts to shareholders. We remain committed to our target leverage range. That said, we do expect some quarter-to-quarter variation depending on market dynamics and timing of dividend payouts. What is important to us is that we see a clear path back inside the range if we happen to be on the outside. So overall, we are in a strong and stable financial position, well funded, well diversified and with the flexibility to navigate changing conditions, supported by the growing high-quality cash flows from the Nordics. Looking ahead, our free cash flow ambitions relate only to the operating companies, excluding associates like CelcomDigi and True. As illustrated by the dotted element of the 2025 column on this chart, we expect NOK 2.5 billion from associates this year, including Allente. We see solid medium- to long-term dividend potential from our associates as their results improve, as illustrated by the arrow in this chart. As you know, CelcomDigi are -- CelcomDigi and True are large separately listed companies. And while we exert significant influence through the respective boards, these are nevertheless noncontrolled entities. And as such, we find it prudent to exclude dividends from these companies from our stated [ FCF ] ambitions. We do, however, expect that the 2-player industry structure in Thailand, along with an ambitious transformation will be supportive for the future results of True, which just announced its inaugural dividend. In Malaysia, CelcomDigi has paid consistent dividends. However, in Q3, we highlighted some of the potential risks related to the evolving 5G landscape in Malaysia and challenges related to the financial situation in CelcomDigi's associated 5G network company. Nevertheless, we expect transformation and progress on key pain points to underpin and unlock substantial mid- to long-term dividend potential from these assets. So looking at 2026 in the indicative chart here, while free cash flow builds on firm momentum into -- from the Nordics into '26, -- it is balanced against important investments and short-term structural effects such as the expected divestments of Pakistan and Allente. While we will provide our full '26 outlook in connection with our Q4 results early next year, we do already foresee a mid-single-digit EBITDA growth in the Nordics in '26. Note that incremental spectrum payments are excluded from our ambitions. As per long-standing Telenor policy, we do not comment on future spectrum spend. The reason for this is to avoid front-running our bidding strategy, which I'm sure many authorities would love to hear and generally high uncertainty in Asia within this area. While we are strongly committed to covering our dividends over time, in '26, this could potentially, and I only underline the word potentially be qualified by uncertain external and structural factors, such as the dividends from noncontrolling entities and the spectrum auctions as well as mentioned exits. For the mid- to long term, we see quite a few structural performance drivers for free cash flows for our controlled businesses. This goes especially for the Nordics, led by the service-led upselling and tapering OpEx. CapEx intensity in the Nordics should, as mentioned, also continue to fade as the network heavy lifts are gradually completed. In Bangladesh, additional 4G investments will be balanced by macro recovery, leading to cash flow uplift in the country. Tax payments in the Nordics will increase from '28 and the national roaming agreement we have with Lyse will taper off as they build out their own network. Overall, we expect substantial improvements in group free cash flow, excluding associates over the medium to long term. And on top of this, dividends from associates are expected to contribute meaningfully. So for the mid- to long term, more specifically, we have the following ambitions. If we start with the Nordics. In the Nordics, we're aiming for an organic service revenue growth in the low single-digit range through both '28 and 2030. Organic EBITDA growth in the low to mid-single-digit range, supported by the declining OpEx of between 0% to minus 2% annually and the resultant operating leverage. We expect CapEx to sales to taper towards below 13% by '28 with a further decline to 11% to 12% by 2030. And when we give a long-term outlook today, this is based on the current industrial visibility that we have. With access rollouts in fiber and 5G heading towards the finish line, we do believe CapEx will taper, and we will take a prudent approach as we -- when we talked about new technologies. In case there would be attractive investment projects within areas we are unaware of today, of course, this outlook may change. But this, of course, is -- would be subject to the same strict return parameters that we've talked extensively about. So these are the best estimates we have today. At the group level, free cash flow, excluding associates, is expected to be around NOK 12 billion to NOK 13 billion for 2028, further reaching NOK 14 billion to NOK 15 billion by 2030. Dividends from associates would, as mentioned, come on top of this cash flow. Return on capital employed is projected to grow from 8.6% today to exceed 11% by '28 and rise above 12% by 2030, reinforcing our focus on value creation. On a side note, this ROCE figure does include our associated companies. And as mentioned earlier, ROCE, excluding associates, were more than 5 percentage points higher as per the third quarter this year. So all in all, these ambitions underline our long-term strategy, steady growth, operational excellence, return-focused investments with an expanding return on capital as a result. So with that, I'd like to hand over to Benedicte for her concluding remarks. Benedicte.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveThank you, Torbjorn, and thank you all for a good session. I'll be quick at I know we are heading a bit up against the time. To sum up our financial ambitions, we are quite ambitious about our value creation potential for shareholders over the next 3 to 5 years. The commitment to our financial policy, including dividends and a strong balance sheet remain strong. And in addition, we have a firm commitment to dividend coverage over time. When I joined Telenor a year ago, I came to a high-performing organization that was well underway to deliver on the ambitions we set 3 years ago. Now 12 months later, we are here reporting back on good progress and good results. I hope that we've been brought to life our evolved strategy to drive value creation for our shareholders over the next few years, starting with our customers, which ultimately drives company value to our shareholders as illustrated on this slide. I personally feel a great enthusiasm about this strategy and perhaps even more importantly, I'm so encouraged by about what I see around in the organization. I see a Telenor group leadership that is even more united and focused on strategy and execution. I see strong leadership teams in each and every business unit, and I see that they are better equipped to empower and enable their teams to deliver. And I also see that we are all passionate about doing so. The simplification and tech and AI-driven transformation that we talk about here in the PowerPoint format, is being implemented as we speak and accelerated across the organization. And this gives me great confidence that many positive results are yet to be seen for Telenor. Finally, I'm confident that our evolved strategy will drive return on capital, free cash flows and dividends as well as shareholder value overall. So thank you all, and we look forward to your questions.
Frank Maaø
executiveWell, thank you, Benedicte. And then we're ready for the second Q&A round of the day. And I will invite our colleagues back down here with us. So Torbjorn, the Group CFO; and Jon Omund, Head of Asia, back up here to -- for the Q&A. And again, please limit yourself to one question, and we might have a chance to get back for your second one later. And we'll start today with the room. But before that, operator, are you there?
Operator
operatorYes. Thank you. [Operator Instructions]
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. Then while the queue is forming online, again, we will start here in the room. And please wait for the microphone before you go. I think the first question will be then from Andrew Lee there. Thank you.
Andrew Lee
analystThe question was on the Asia portfolio simplification. That's something that I know you guys have been thinking about for some time and have always said it's not easy. It's not a simple thing to do. And it remains a kind of medium- to long-term plans. So the question is kind of has the setup changed do you think that will make it easier for you to kind of exit some of the Asian assets or simplify your portfolio over the next couple of years? And what has changed that gives you the confidence that you can actually achieve this?
Frank Maaø
executiveYou want to go? Or you...
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveI think Jon Omund is eager to answer.
Jon Revhaug
executiveThank you. Good question. So when we say we have simplified, we have moved from a number of assets where we have operational control and also the responsibilities that comes with it to now associate the companies for the largest entities where we basically owned shares in a listed company in the market. So that is a very different situation related to potential changes of ownership if you put it that way. So from that perspective, it is restructured and simplified with respect to how we move forward.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveAnd I also think it's worth mentioning that the value creation is also more visible with all our assets being listed. And as we said in the presentation, if there are sensible things to do that would increase the value of these assets, we will certainly have a very close look at it.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. Good. I think the next question is from Nick Lyall, Nick? We're running with a microphone.
Nicholas Lyall
analystNick Lyall from Berenberg. Just on Andrew's point as well in Asia. Could you come back to how you actually decide on the value of the assets? You've clearly mentioned the dividend growth but return on capital are negative. You could be an unlevered Nordic operation instead. So how are you actually assessing when is the right time to look at the Asian assets and why?
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveIf you remember one of the first slides Jon Omund had the listed -- the value of our shares that are listed have increased by around NOK 11 billion to 27% but close NOK 90 billion, right? So at least there is a visibility of the increased value of the assets. And that's the main data that we use when we value our assets. I guess there is no better measure for a listed share, right?
Torbjorn Wist
executiveIf I could just tag on real quick. I mean what we have said is that we want to be active owners. And within that also means looking at structural opportunities. And that means that we will look at structural opportunities that we feel are value-enhancing to Telenor. Aside from that, we have said also that these type of structural deals take a lot of time. The mergers in Asia took 3 to 4 years to complete. So that is why we will continue to work to drive value as an active owner and then look at structural opportunities. And then be more than happy to come back and share news with the market as and when we have something to report.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. I think the next question is from Andre from UBS.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo I have a question on free cash flow. This time around, you're not guiding for free cash flow, including associates. I was wondering why the decision? And then if you can give maybe -- or is that an indication of something in terms of how core these assets are here is just not enough visibility for you to put the numbers out there and then associated with free cash flow, if you can just give us maybe a bit of color below the EBITDA and CAPEX numbers because obviously, you've mentioned, for example, the Bangladesh spectrum auction, some of the stuff around the 5G JV in Malaysia, et cetera. But of the more regular items, what it could be the reason that guidance could be maybe -- it might seem slightly conservative given the guidance on EBITDA and CapEx?
Torbjorn Wist
executiveSo we have made a decision to only guide for our control companies. As mentioned in the presentation, the 2 associated companies in Asia are separately listed companies that we do not control. And of course, they, of course, need to give their own guidance. The forecasting of cash flows in the previous period was also for a period when there was mergers that has some clear financial ambitions to come out, but it is impossible for me or us to predict the dividends. So for example, True has announced now at the interim dividend of 125% of profit, we have no control as to what percentage of future profits they will guide. So hence, we think it is prudent for us to only guide on the parameters we control, where we have a real influence on the outcome. Now as far as things below CapEx, as you know, we tend not to go into specific entities. We've said we will dial up CapEx a little bit on -- in Grameenphone due to the voice to data transition. And then it remains to be seen what the resolution is with respect to the 5G JV in Malaysia, but that is, of course, something that you Jon Omund and his team are following up very closely.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. Thank you. I think your next question comes from Jorgen at Pareto at the fourth row. Yes.
Jørgen Weidemann
analystThank you so much for the presentation and for taking my question. So my question would be when you keep leverage guidance and also intend to increase dividends over time. while also stating that divestments in Asia are a bit -- you can't say for sure when it's going to be. How would you -- if there would be consolidation opportunities in the NORDICS? How would you finance that? Would you reassess your leverage targets? Or are you looking at share payments? Or any comments would be helpful.
Torbjorn Wist
executiveYes, I think you're going into areas that becomes quite into the hypothetical, what to do if we divest how to fund if we buy -- there also, of course, all important considerations that we would look at in those hypothetical scenarios. And what we are clear on is that we are -- we have to maintain a strong balance sheet. So that, of course, provides some constraining parameters. But how we finance, how we structure any potential deals is something we will look at on a case-by-case basis and come back to if and when we have something to say. So I'd rather not speculate on the various permutations there.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. And then we have Christoffer Bjornsen.
Christoffer Bjørnsen
analystIt's Christoffer from DNB Carnegie. On the CapEx outlook, you're kind of guiding for a material step down in the longer term. So before -- like when we exit '28, can you just give some thoughts on where we would be on like the upgrade of all the networks in the Nordics to stand-alone on 5G, where you'll be on fiber penetration. And then finally, any remaining work that needs to be done on swapping out Chinese equipment, both in the wireless and the fixed networks. And in particular, on the stand-alone 5G, if that thing kind of included in the CapEx towards '28 to have fully transition to stand-alone by '28. That would be helpful. So 3 bullets there.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveWhen it comes to the stand-alone network, I think I showed it also on one of my slides. We have between 90% and 99% coverage we have 5G coverage also up in 80 plus across the Nordics. And we are now in our final phase of 5G stand-alone making that available and anticipate that to be operational or possible to put into customer transactions in the coming year. So kind of getting there as we speak. And that's also the reason why the CapEx is tapering over time when we've kind of reached the peak of our 5G investments, and we see that we can, that our CapEx to sales will be reduced somewhat. And remember, we come from a level of 19% CapEx to sales back in 2022. And now we are guiding on around 14% this year and then going further down in the years to come. And you also asked about the Chinese vendor situation in Finland, right? Which has been somewhat in the news. And there is an ongoing discussion in Finland. And the question is whether RAN equipment will be defined as critical infrastructure or not. We do not see there is a big change. We follow it very, very closely, of course. But we don't anticipate there to be a big change and big impact on Telenor short term and there is also an anticipation in Finland that if the regulator or the authorities decide mandatory swap out of Chinese equipment that there also will be some financing from the Finnish authorities if that happens.
Unknown Executive
executiveChris, we have not quantify that in the Nordics as such. But you're welcome to participate on the breakout session on Nordic fixed markets related to that.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveDetails on all the countries in the breakout session, actually.
Frank Maaø
executiveWe need to move on in the Q&A. Thank you for that question. And we think we'll go to Daniel Landberg of Handelsbanken seated next to [ Christopher ] there in one row further down.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Thank you, Frank. And I have a tech question, surprise, surprise. And that would be on the 5G stand-alone that you mentioned, you will be deploying here in '26 time frame? Is it for the full of Nordic or mainly in Norway? And also, if you can talk about the opportunities you see to monetize this, i.e., dynamic network slicing or whatever or what you've learned so far, what you've seen from Elisa, for example, in Finland or Reliance Jio in India.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveWe anticipate to have 5G stand-alone available in all the 4 Nordic countries.
Unknown Executive
executiveDuring 2026.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveS During -- thank you.
Unknown Analyst
analystCan you say anything about monetization and what you expect to see from this in terms of growth if you can have.
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveWe haven't elaborated in any detail on that. But it's within -- it's in our financial ambition.
Frank Maaø
executiveNext question is from Felix from Nordea.
Unknown Analyst
analystIt's on Malaysia. So is there anything that you can do yourself to offset some of the adverse impact from the suboptimal 5G network situation and DNB's difficulties? And as a follow-up, does the prevailing structurally challenged 5G network situation impact your desire to stay in the market?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Thanks. So what we are doing is from Telenor side is to work with partners in Malaysia, both our partner in the ownership of CelcomDigi, but also broader to guide and be part of the discussions to restructure and find solutions for DNB medium to long term going forward. And we believe we have adequate and good competence related to what is needed to be done up and beyond the spectrum discussions that are ongoing with the government. So that we are engaging on a quite active basis.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd the sort of impact on your desire to stay in the market against that backdrop?
Unknown Executive
executiveFor now, we are focused on creating solutions to the situation and the structural changes, we will take as and if they come.
Frank Maaø
executiveAnd the next question comes from [ Stan from ABG. ]
Unknown Analyst
analyst[indiscernible] One on OpEx growth in the Nordics. You guide for 0 to minus 2% annual OpEx growth in the Nordics. Over the last couple of years, much of your EBITDA growth has come from price increases or giving more for more, as you say. If that is difficult to maintain that kind of price increase momentum, do you think there is potential to do more on costs so that cost can contribute a larger part of that EBITDA growth that you're guiding for?
Torbjorn Wist
executiveYou're absolutely right. A lot of the performance has come from a successful commercial strategy driving the top line, but I probably have a slightly different perspective on the cost side. We've had a very ambitious agenda on the cost side also historically. And I think the -- as I like to put it a bit [indiscernible], the combination of top line growth continued with lowering OpEx and falling CapEx is, of course, a strong contributor to the overall cash flows. So -- and this effort will definitely continue also through the, call it, the time horizon that we highlighted on the stage there. And as we said, 0% to minus 2% in the period up to 28%, and that will continue beyond '28. And I think it's important to keep in mind that when we're talking about 0% to minus 2%, that is a net decline in total OpEx. That means that not only have we absorbed the inflationary pressures, but we've also managed down the cost base. So -- and of course, the more and more sort of low-hanging fruit to take off, the harder it gets. But given our transformation muscle, we're confident that we will deliver on this trajectory going forward, and this will be equally important in the future as it has been in the past.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. With that, I think we'll need to come back to any potential further questions from the room and give the participants online, a chance to ask their questions. Operator, are you there?
Operator
operatorYes. Our first question will come from Ajay Soni JPMorgan.
Ajay Soni
analystJust around the dividend. So last few years, these have grown around about 1%. I think if you look at your free cash flow growth ex associates, that's guided to mid-single digits. I think when you add on the associate dividends on top of that, I think free cash flow is growing mid- to high single digits. So can your dividends grow in line with this free cash flow growth that you kind of guided to today? And then just one quick question on the 2026 free cash flow, just to confirm, did you say that these may not cover the dividends for 2026? I just maybe missed that.
Torbjorn Wist
executiveSo let's -- the brief answer to your first question on dividend growth going forward. This is, of course, a matter that our Board will consider when we come to look at dividend declaration. So I'm not going to stand here and give any guidance or manage expectations on the future dividends other than to say that we are strongly committed to it. As far as the '26 is concerned, we've said that there are some things that could potentially impact the coverage in '26. And I think we've been highlighted enough through the presentation about what they are, including dialing up investments, some of the structural things going away as well as some of the headwinds in Asia. But for us, we have, as we like to say, in Norway, quite low shoulders on this because our dividends are very covered -- very strongly supported by strong growing Nordic cash flows. So to the extent you have minor bumps in the road, that it doesn't give us a rise for concern also from a leverage perspective.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. Next question.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from [indiscernible].
Unknown Analyst
analystSo if I think about Telenor Capital Markets back really pretty much all the way back to 2004. CapEx to sales has practically always been guided down, right? I think the highlight was the CTO standing up and saying, Asian CapEx can be below 10%. What is structurally different this time? I think you mentioned one thing in your presentation, which is the softwarization of the equipment and that this means some of the costs will move from CapEx into OpEx. But then you essentially guide for continued OpEx declines on a net basis, as you highlighted just now. So I'm just wondering how this all fits together. It really does sound like an extremely ambitious goal compared to what has been delivered in the past on CapEx. And if it is really the software bit, then I don't quite understand the OpEx guidance. Could you just elaborate on that a little bit?
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveI can do the CapEx to sales bit. Thank you for stating that it's ambitious. I think we feel that we have to get up early every day in order to deliver on our ambitions. But we're very confident that from what we now know about where we are on the 5G development, what rest capacity we have can deliver on that equipment and our 5G stand-alone rollout and our -- I was supposed to say, fortification, but our building further resilience, we are pretty confident that the levels that we are now guiding you should be achievable and a prudent and good quality development of the CapEx levels of Telenor going forward. And you also add something on the OpEx side, right?
Torbjorn Wist
executiveMaybe just also to cover, as we made clear in the presentation, we do believe that there is a long runway of features that can be introduced based on the 5G infrastructure we have today. And as we commented, we applaud the innovation discussions, but we are going to take a very prudent approach to this. And we anticipate, based on what we understand that a lot of this will be software related. Then I would like to add that we do have also now things such as the more focus on centralized procurement, the procurement cooperation with Vodafone, which, of course, are important contributors to lowering the cost of equipment going forward.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. So the heavy lifting has essentially been done. We'll take the next question from the line, please.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions.
Frank Maaø
executiveOkay. Then we have a question registered from Jeremy from New Street where you seated over here in the front row, second row.
Unknown Analyst
analystSorry. Yes, just a clarification on the Asian dividends. I think you said you had no control over those dividends going forward. Can you just clarify on that? I mean presumably you have some influence through your Board on that. But is there any risk that those are withheld to try and force yourselves out of those markets? I mean, Malaysia being an example with Axiata, who I think at some point might wish to reconsolidate. And then on the dividends, if those -- you've suggested that they should be covered but might not be covered in 2026. And then beyond that, if spectrum in Bangladesh is high as some news reports have said that those -- that the government is looking for significant funds from those. Could that be the case for more than one year? And would you continue to support the dividends through your balance sheet if that was the case?
Benedicte Fasmer
executiveThe first, the level of control. Of course -- I mean, we are active owners. We have around 30% ownership of these I'm sorry for calling it noncontrolled assets. But as a matter of fact, they are -- we are on committees, on board, and we supply with competence and people and technology. So I mean, yes, we do influence and we have an active ownership approach to these assets. However, the -- because they're listed, they have boards with also partner representatives and independent representatives. We are not in that position alone. And they are also -- they are listed with stock exchange obligations, which means that if we guide or try to guide on those companies, we will be violating either stock exchange valuations or to the extent that we're insiders. So it's just a matter of complication. And to make it smooth and transparent and predictable and where we actually have a true line of sight, that's why we have decided to do it this way. It's as simple as that. But that doesn't exclude the fact that we are expecting meaningful dividends from these companies, and we are positive about the outlook for the companies as such.
Torbjorn Wist
executiveI think just to add, it's -- these are very much aligned with our partners in those 2 entities. Just a quick comment on the spectrum side. We have, I would claim the best spectrum team on the street, humbly said. And when I -- the reason why I'm highlighting it is we are not known to buy spectrum, excessive amounts of spectrum or paying more than we have to. So clearly, our spectrum resources will be heavily engaged in terms of looking at spectrum renewals, including how much we need of the various spectrum bands. As we made clear, this might prove some short-term headwinds on cash flow. But again, we do anticipate that Bangladesh after a period slump due to the political uncertainty will recover as a result of the election scheduled for February next year, I believe. So combined with that, that does not give us -- give rise to concern that this is something that's going to hamper us in the long-term picture.
Frank Maaø
executiveWell, thank you, Torbjorn, for that. I think that really concludes our Q&A session. And now it's time for a break. So for investors and analysts, you have signed up for lunch at the sixth floor in the Norway lounge, which will take place from now until 12:30. So please get moving, and we'll see you up there. And after that, there will be breakout sessions on the fourth floor, fourth floor for the breakouts from 12:30. Thank you very much for all coming, and we'll see you for lunch and breakouts. Thank you.
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