Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

December 9, 2020

NASDAQ US Communication Services Media conference_presentation 40 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#1

Good morning, everyone. My name is J.T. Stephens, and I'm managing director on the tech banking team here at UBS. We are honored to welcome Joe Walsh, the President and CEO of Thryv, to the conference this year. Just for a quick background, the company provides local business automation software and digital and print marketing solutions to more than 400,000 local businesses, helping them compete and win in today's on-demand economy. The company recently completed a direct listing, and we think it's one of these interesting businesses that's kind of flying under the radar that has just tremendous upside potential. So Joe, thanks for being with us today and attending our conference.

Joe Walsh

executive
#2

Hey, I'm glad to be here. Thanks for having me.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#3

Yes. And look, I mean, I think, candidly, the UBS team is relatively new to the story, and I think probably a handful of the investors and folks in the audience are also newer to the story. So maybe we just kick it off, if you could give a brief intro into the Thryv platform.

Joe Walsh

executive
#4

Yes. I mean Thryv is -- the Thryv platform solves the problem that small businesses have today. We call them the unclouded, these small businesses that have been around for a while, run by business owners that are not ancient, but a little bit older and haven't really taken advantage of the cloud yet. And this thing has changed the world. I mean the way we all gather information, the way we all shop, the way we all buy things. And what Thryv really does is gives them a simple platform on devices they already own to operate their company. End-to-end, the whole client experience is right there on Thryv. And it interconnects with lots of other tools within the market and the ecosystem. So it really gives them kind of one place to go. It's in their pocket and in the pocket of all of their employees all the time.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#5

That's great. And maybe just tell a little bit about yourself. You've got a long history working in the space. And maybe you can elaborate and give the audience some perspective on your background as well and how that parallels with your role at the company.

Joe Walsh

executive
#6

Well, I'm an entrepreneur. I started a yellow pages company competing with the telephone company Yellow Pages, a very long time ago, kind of 3 decades ago. And bootstrapped this thing, built it up, sold it to a larger company and spent a couple of years inside that company growing a bigger yellow pages business. We then sold that on to a public company. I joined a little company in Long Island called Yellowbook and was appointed the CEO after a couple of years. And we led Yellowbook to become a $2 billion company in the U.S. by making 77 acquisitions, big platform ones and little tuck-ins. Basically created the kind of the Southwest Airlines of the yellow pages business. We kind of -- we're the low-cost carrier. We came in at a lower price point, really provided tons of innovation and caused the telephone companies to have to react to us. And we took a lot of usage share. We built this great company. Ultimately, we ended up combining that with the yellow pages in the U.K. and Spain and a couple in Latin America and took the whole thing public. And so I did what every good guy who's taking a company public after a while does, I went off and started a Board advisory practice. I started working with the very PE firms and hedge funds that had invested in us and made so much money over the kind of 25-year run. Our e-mail was ringing off the hook saying, "Hey, there's money chasing deals, but operators are the problem. Would you come help us with these different situations?" And so we were pretty busy. One of the things that was germane to this is I became the Executive Chairman of Cambium Learning Group, the ticker symbol ABCD. It was a NASDAQ listed ed tech company. They were struggling with the transition from printed educational materials to digital. And I joined the company, and we really made a hard pivot pretty much completely over to the ed tech side of things. We expanded in 43 countries around the world, and built this thing to a big success. And in fact, we were taken out by a private equity company, Veritas, 2 years ago, with a grand slam of a home run. So everybody was real happy about that. But I learned a lot about SaaS software in that process. And one of the assignments that Walsh Partners got was working for Dex Media, which was the telephone company yellow pages that a bunch of distressed debt investors have been investing in. And they brought us in to say, "What should the strategy be here? If we're going to end up owning the yellow pages, what should we do with it?" And the strategy that my team recommended was a big pivot to solve a different problem that their customers had, right? So Google and Facebook were going to basically chew up the digital marketing services business. But there was a bigger, much more interesting opportunity. These businesses were going to get run over by global e-commerce, regional and national companies that were marketing effectively on this and using this to deliver a better client experience. And we could help them catch up. We could basically democratize the cloud. So that was the strategy. And the Board loved it, so much so that they convinced us to basically suspend the operations in Walsh Partners. And en masse, my team, 10 of us, we joined and took the company over. and began to turn it around and head in a different direction.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#7

Well, that's fascinating. What a great story. So -- and it's funny, you clearly have had a pretty good impact. I think the business reached $100 million in revenues in less than 4 years. And maybe you mentioned kind of -- we talked about the footprint, which is pretty sizable, but maybe you can talk a little bit about the customer acquisition strategy up to this point and kind of the various channels that you're using, obviously. There's a lot of SMBs, but the tracking down can be challenging at times.

Joe Walsh

executive
#8

Not for us. We had an unfair advantage, J.T. We -- when we arrived, we had a very big national Marketing Services business. And we were hunting in the zoo. I mean we weren't out -- if you were starting a software company, you're in the forest hunting rabbits, trying to find them one at a time. We were in the zoo. We had more than 350,000 customers nationally that we already had a relationship that already had this problem that could relate to it. So we went right out with the traditional sales force that the Yellow Pages and the Marketing Services business have had for years. Train them up on how to tell this story, and we, as you said, we went from 0 to over $100 million in revenue. We have over 40,000 subscribers in this thing. It's fully scaled. It's national already.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#9

That's great. And I guess one of the interesting nuances in what you just said is that you're able to leverage a sales force that probably already had relationships with a handful of this large customer base. So...

Joe Walsh

executive
#10

Average customer over 7 years. And average employee over 7 years. So it's a serious relationship capital. And they went out and explained our solution. People said, "That makes total sense." And they signed up.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#11

Right. Right. And I guess maybe as you think about the market, I like your analogy of hunting in the zoo. It's funny. But obviously, you mentioned 40,000 penetrated. So just back of envelope math, about 10% of the base that's in your ecosystem and obviously, the expands beyond that for maybe SMBs who are not working with you today. But how do you think about penetrating both your current base and then going outbound beyond your core group?

Joe Walsh

executive
#12

Well, we learned a lot in the early days here. We initially went out and we sold anybody who would sign up, right? I mean, we didn't know. What we've learned since is we've developed an ideal client profile. So we've decided that certain businesses are a better fit for us than others. And just to give you some sense of what I'm talking about, the one-man show, the solopreneur, Dan with a van. Their needs for cloud software are not as strong. They don't have multiple employees to communicate with. They don't have high numbers of clients to communicate with. Their needs are just more modest, and we sold a lot of those guys initially because they got excited about it, but they didn't really have the persistent need for this. And so we saw some early churn, as we learned, that's not really our guy. We need to focus on businesses that have multiple employees, maybe 2 or 3 employees up to maybe 50, that kind of medium-sized business, where they have a fairly large number of accounts to communicate with. They have multiple employees to share information between. They're managing maybe multiple jobs going on at once. Thryv is really powerful for that. So when we focused on that ideal client profile, It narrowed the group within our base that we could really focus on a little bit. But we're continuing to more deeply penetrate that base now.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#13

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. And obviously, you have a large pool to kind of narrow down, which is great. So maybe just for the benefit of the audience as well. We've talked about kind of the vision and the opportunity and obviously a piece of the addressable market. But can you give us a sense a little bit more for the product? And maybe talk about the aspects that are most popular with your customer base today?

Joe Walsh

executive
#14

Sure. Yes. Think about all the things that happen when you deal with a small business. First, you have to find them, right? So getting your listings and all the details about your business right everywhere on the web is not trivial. It's very, very hard. And it's a tremendous SEO issue, search engine optimization issue for Google and other engines. If the details out there don't agree, you basically -- the algorithm says, "Eh." And it pushes you down. If everything is tight, everything is clean, everything agrees, that's a positive for SEO. And so one of the first things that we do is we manage all the listings, all those details all over the web in more than 60 sites, all the big ones that matter. We essentially have a constant beacon going out, transmitting your hours and your offering. And right now with the pandemic going on, people are changing their store hours. They're changing their offerings. They're changing their protocols to try to keep people safe. When you -- we've got a little console. You basically put your details in there, and within minutes, that transmits out to the web and this persistent signal is looked to by Google and other search engines. And then basically, it becomes your record of fact. And so you're much more easily found when you're a Thryv customer, consistently everywhere. And if you are coming up, for example, on Christmas eve and Christmas. "Are you open? Are you not open? What are your hours that day?" You can keep that stuff posted and current and live all the time. So it starts there. A couple of versions of Thryv, we offer a really high-quality mobile adaptive, really well SEO'd website. And that's a big deal because there's a lot of small business customers. They have a site, but it's basically space junk. It's been floating out there for 5 years or 8 years or 10 years since their cousin's brother-in-law designed it. And it's not really a well-SEO'd quality site. And speed really matters. I mean, Google knocks you down in a hurry if you don't have a really fast site. So the sites that we build, well-SEO'd, really fast and they render in every form factor in a simple, clear way. So you've got -- your listings are right, you've got your site. And then basically, we're managing marketing automation campaigns for you. We're hosting a CRM database of all your customers with all the details of everything that ever happened. We do estimates, invoices, billing, payments, recurring payments, card on file. We do all of that stuff for you as well. If you have an appointment, we've got an appointment calendar, where the customer can go in and make an appointment at 11:00 at night. He remembers he needs a haircut the next day. He can go in and step that up. And then they get either text or e-mail reminder, whichever they select, either the day of or hours before the meeting. And then that brings no shows way down. And then after the appointment, after the interaction, we send a follow-up thank you that asks for a rating and review and then takes that review and posts it where you need to post it because social proof is so important today.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#15

And are you syndicating those reviews through your network? So you mentioned 60 points of contact across the web. I would imagine you mentioned Google and a handful of Yelp and all those types of places. Are you -- are those reviews kind of getting distributed to all those points? Or how does that work?

Joe Walsh

executive
#16

They are. They are. And in fact, when you -- like on Google My Business. It's actually got a little Thryv attribution that the review is sourced by Thryv, which is really cool. Google doesn't give much. They're getting more friendly nowadays, and they're getting beat up in Washington, but we've been working on it.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#17

Yes. So have you guys built direct pipes into Google? So I know, obviously, when site changes are made, if -- depending on where you are in the index and when your site's getting crawled, with a lot of these SMBs are probably at the distant part of the tail, so they're not getting crawled as quickly. But you're able to help mitigate that, right?

Joe Walsh

executive
#18

We are. Yes. No, we're obviously a big national player. You mentioned our software business is $100-plus million, but we're more than a $1 billion company in total revenue. We've got a huge national customer base and a deep relationship with Google. So the whole sort of -- like Gmail is -- you can -- it integrates with Thryv and it shares data, the Google My Business suite. So yes. Working with us, you have the best entree. We have a deep relationship with Yelp. Lots of the other players in the ecosystem work with us, as you would imagine.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#19

Yes. No, that's great. That's great. Okay. Well, I think that gives you great overview of the business and the products. Maybe just give us a sense for kind of business model. So is this kind of month-to-month? Annual contracts? How should we think about that?

Joe Walsh

executive
#20

So it's a classic SaaS situation. We charge a monthly subscription. The initial contract we sign customers up for is 6 months. We started out with the year, and there were some customers, especially as we got to the pandemic saying, "Geez, that's a big commitment. I don't know what the future is going to hold." We found 6 months was a sweet spot, and we do something really unique. We have them put up, at the time of sale, a $250 onboarding deposit. So they basically give us $250 in addition to whatever other initial fees there are, that once they're fully onboarded and they become a daily active user of the software, we give them the $250 back. So it's basically like you joined a gym, and you said, "Look, I'm going to lift weights. I'm going to get ripped." And the trainer said, "All right. Great. Put up $250. And when you lose 8 pounds, I'll give it back to you." It's kind of that commitment that we're making you lift weights, right? We're making you show up. We're making you do it. And it might sound a little strong-handed, but we found that before we did that, they all had the best intentions, but they didn't always follow up. Now they got skin in the game. It's a little higher at the point of sale, but once you get past that, you get engagement. You get them using it. You get their CRM built. You get them taking appointments, doing billing, And the next thing you know, there -- you see them post on social media using the Thryv platform. You see them doing the whole thing. And once they get engaged, there's no going back. You're not going to go back to Excel spreadsheets and file folders.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#21

Yes, absolutely. That's great. And look, you mentioned one of the other topics that I thought would be worth discussing just because it's so topical is SMBs have been in the headlines right around COVID and how the market's been devastated. I'd be interested to hear your take on that. I imagine you have a pretty interesting purview into that whole ecosystem. And how has that impacted your customer base? Or maybe in some cases, given you a bit of a tailwind as digitization has become a pretty important theme for this ecosystem.

Joe Walsh

executive
#22

It's been a pretty significant tailwind for digitization. A small business, when we were calling on them prior to the pandemic, some of these established, long-established small businesses. It was like rotating the tires on their car. They knew they needed to do it. They were going to get around to it. They had a sticky note. They wanted to do it, but they were really, really busy because the economy was cranking. They were doing really well, and it was kind of a nice-to-do thing. Well, all of a sudden, pandemic comes and they're pretty much locked down. Now they have nothing but time on their hands, right? So they're not very busy. And in order to get their business going again, they have to adapt. They have to adapt to the changes. They have to do contactless delivery and payment. Maybe they had a retail store and now they have to throw up a Shopify on Thryv real quick and set up a little e-commerce tool and then have their employees deliver the stuff to people's houses, which is what we helped hundreds of businesses do, just quickly adapt like that. So I would say, overall, the pandemic has been a tailwind and a positive. We've been a beneficiary in the Thryv software side. On the Marketing Services side of our business, we have had some customers pause their campaigns. Maybe they're running a search campaign or whatever, and they said, "Look, I'm not even open. I'm not allowed to be open here in my state or my county right now. I need to pause for this month or 2." So we've had some pauses. We've given some other customers pandemic credits where they were kind of in the blast zone and we had to help them. So we maybe gave them a couple of months of their normal billing. We just gave a credit to help them through. So being a large company with hundreds of millions of EBITDA, we had the ability to absorb that without too much trouble. I must say that we don't have a lot of dining, entertainment, travel, high-end retail. Those are not our customers. Our customers are really the service businesses. The home services, the car services, the personal services. These are our big customers. So we were not at the epicenter. We were over on the side a little bit. And honestly, those home services guys, they've been rocking. Everybody is stuck at their home. They're looking to fix it up and wear and tear, people flushing toilets 10 million times, they break more often, all that stuff. So we actually have -- I'm not going to say benefited, but our group has done fairly well through this.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#23

Maybe talk a little bit about the churn. So it sounds like the core software is being utilized in increasing ways. You mentioned maybe there's been a bit of pause on the marketing side. But how has that been impacting retention? How do you guys think about churn? Maybe give the audience a sense for some of the key SaaS KPIs in the business.

Joe Walsh

executive
#24

Sure. Yes. I mean, look, engagement is enormous to us. And we've been watching steady increases of time on site, number of features. Thryv does about 20 things. And so not every business is going to use all 20 of them. It's like your iPhone. You don't use everything that it does, right? So all of our customers don't use everything that Thryv does. The sweetest spot for us is we can get them to 4 features. Once they implement 4 features and start using them, it's just easy from there. It's like rolling downhill. The fifth, the sixth, the seventh become easier to get them to use. But from a client experience, from a coaching, teaching, helping these guys get going, getting them to those first 4 can be challenging. So we have a big client experience team, Thryv service specialists that work with them, teaching, helping them do that. If we see it, we monitor. We've got a tool we use to watch what they're doing. And if they go dark for a little while, they're not in there and their time on site starts dropping, we're contacting . We've got tech touch. We've got personal touch. We're contacting them and saying, "Is everything okay? What's going on?" Maybe it's as simple as they somehow got themselves logged out and they couldn't get back in. So you contact them. It happens. I mean that stuff like that happens in real life, and you help them get it sorted out. When you follow software businesses, enterprises, enterprise churn, it's typically in the one range because enterprises are slow to make a decision, but they don't go out of business that often. And they tend to be slow to make a change. When you deal with consumers and consumers are buying things, you look at churn of 6%, 7%, 8% because consumers change their mind all the time. They're all over the place. When you deal with SMBs, it's kind of in the middle because they really are consumers. They're really -- most of these are 2-man, 3-man, 4-man businesses, and they go in and out of business. Things change. So you're not ever going to get to enterprise churn. But believe or not, we've managed to get the churn in this business down, down, down. We're down in that kind of mid-2 range. And it wasn't overnight. It took us some time to build it, but we've got a nice base now of low churn clients, and we figured out how to add them outside of our existing customer base. I mentioned that we were hunting in the zoo in the beginning, right? Because we're just calling on our existing customers. Since that time, we've begun to do what a software company would that didn't have a zoo. We've started to build Thryv's own dedicated sales in motion. We've got a big inbound team where we do content marketing and online marketing, [ find hand razors ], SDRs, talk them through setting up a demo. They then set a demo and they kind of go through a process. So that's really ramping now. As is, we built a 150 reseller partner channel with 150 resellers beginning to sell the product for us. So that's -- the volume of that's growing. And this is going to sound crazy, but we only recently started a franchise multi-location arm. And it's taken orders like these 3-year, 6-figure contracts as fast as we can write them. But we hadn't really focused on the franchise multi-location group. So these new channels are bubbling up now and really represent a lot of our current growth and plan for growth.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#25

That's great. And when you mentioned, you said 2%, it sounds like, for churn. Should we be thinking that on a monthly or an annual basis? And I imagine that's gross churn, right? So net -- hopefully, net churn and net retention is -- you're obviously upselling your customer base, right? So maybe talk about the way to think about that.

Joe Walsh

executive
#26

Yes, yes. So that is monthly. And yes, we do have less dollar churn than we do number of account churn because you've got accounts that are buying more seats for their employees to use, more seat licenses. You've got -- we've got new features coming onstream. The one I'm most excited about is ThryvPay, which is a really meaningful thing that's coming through. So our product development team is rolling out more and more things, more and more features, more and more add-ons, more and more things for customers buy. So our net retention gain is probably in the bottom of the first inning. We're early, early days. Remember, the whole thing is only 5 years old, but it's coming fast and really beginning to grow.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#27

Yes, that's great. Well, look, you actually took my next question there, but you mentioned ThryvPay. Obviously, that's been a -- just the payments ecosystem has exploded. And it sounds like you guys are obviously pretty well positioned given your customer base. And maybe tell us a little bit about that product and the story behind that, and if there's been a reaction to date from the customer base.

Joe Walsh

executive
#28

So initially, when we launched payments, which was probably, I don't know, maybe 2.5, 3 years into this journey, we brought in Square and Stripe and all those guys. And it was very helpful because a small business has to have some way to get his CRM, his customer records into the software. When you hook up to one of these payment tools, it backfills 10 years of history. So it fills up your CRM very quickly. So we always say an empty CRM is a very sad, sad CRM. We've got to figure out how to get the information in there. But along the way, we found that our customers, these service guys, like the plumber or the tree guy, the fence contractor, the garage door guy, they tend to take a fairly big check from you, like half down and half of the jobs over or something like that. It's a $1,500, $2,000, $3,000 check you're writing to them. Well, they would like to get paid electronically. They'd like to have the funds available right away. They'd like to know that the funds are available. So getting paid electronically is a high priority to them. But if they take it on like a credit card, Square, Stripe credit card, whatever, the fees are really high. So we build ThryvPay especially for our customer, the big service-based customer. And we developed it with lower fees, made it really efficient. There are a couple of different flavors of it, but it does card on file, it does recurring payments. It does all -- so let's say you're a yoga place. You can set up your payment details. And when you go in to buy your -- make your appointment for Saturday morning at 10, it offers you, "Hey, would you like to buy a 10 pack? If you buy a 10 pack, you pay for 10 and you get 12" So that lets them get a bigger sale and more cash flow. And then every time you sign up for your spin class or your yoga or whatever, deducts a credit and then when you only have 1 or 2 left it asks you to buy another pack. That's serious cash flow for that place because they're in 10 payments right upfront ahead of time, and they're holding the customers' money a little bit, but it's very convenient for the yoga lady, right? So we set it up to do that kind of stuff. And the biggest thing that we find is that the contractors that are taking these larger checks, they gravitate to ThryvPay. Now ThryvPay, I have to concede is 5 weeks old. We literally just started it. But we've had sign-ups, I mean, hundreds a day coming in, transactions flying in already. We're -- overall, our payments business is well over $30 million a month of volume and climbing fast. So we think payments is going to be a big area for us.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#29

Yes. That's incredibly exciting. You've seen a lot of other companies that operate in and around the SMB ecosystem add payments and that's been a great catalyst for their business. So should be exciting times ahead for you on that front. And so one of the other things, I mean, obviously, a lot of players in and around what you do. Maybe talk about how you view the competitive landscape and what you think kind of the core differentiators are.

Joe Walsh

executive
#30

Yes, sure. So the biggest difference between us and the others is the others, for most part, have gone after a vertical where they've gone, they've said, "We're going to do plumbing and HVAC guys. We're going to do funeral homes or we're going to..." and because we were [ A-Z ], we're the Yellow Pages, we had accountants to the zipper guys in there. When we started, we started horizontally. And so we didn't try actually to go as deep in any one vertical. We tried to create something that was simple and easy to use that was easy to get these guys onboarded. Remember, we were trying to bring unsophisticated, unclouded businesses into the cloud. That's not that easy. A lot of these guys are 50 years old. We're trying to teach them how to use this and get them involved and get them going. So we focused on simplicity, ease of use and breadth. And so now that we're pretty successful, we're now beginning to verticalize, So there's a Thryv home services vertical. We're beginning to build that out and go deeper down in there, right? Thryv legal is coming very, very soon. Thryv health is coming. So we're focused on these verticals now and beginning to go deeper and offer more built-out menus for what you do and more detailed verticalization. But I would say the first thing I would say is most of the people we've been up against were either verticals or point solutions where all they set out to do was manage ratings and reviews, or they set out to manage, offer you a scheduling tool, or they were going to help you with payments. So Thryv does it all. It's just end-to-end, those 20 things. So that's, I think, how we fit into the ecosystem.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#31

Well, that's great. Well, look, I think maybe it looks like we've got a couple of minutes here left. One of the other questions I had is, obviously, you look at the business today, there's the legacy Marketing Services piece, which is a cash cow and a source of capital for your SaaS business but is effectively a melting ice cube. So how should we think about kind of the long-term outlook there? And how do you think about keeping that business together or ultimately separating them?

Joe Walsh

executive
#32

So J.T., I don't want to be rude to you, but it's an iceberg, not an ice cube. It's big. It's big, man. It's a big business. It's national. This is the entire national yellow pages, everything from all the different phone companies nationwide. It's the online yellow pages, YP.com, DexKnows, Superpages, all those guys all together. It's everything all packed together. And it's a very big digital Marketing Services business. So it's a big business. It's throwing off very high 30s percent EBITDA margins, and it's declining in a very predictable, very steady way. So I think your question was what do we do with that cash? We're beginning now to accelerate the growth of Thryv and really build out those new channels. We're just tipping in now to international. Thryv works in 7 languages. And up until recently, we were only in the U.S., but we're beginning now to edge out into other markets, and we have a plan to take it international. So that will be a whole another really significant leg of growth for us as well.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#33

Got it. Got it. And I guess maybe one of the other questions we got from the audience here is how long do you envision the revenue from that business to last? I mean that's obviously hard, crystal ball, but as investors think about the contribution that business gives and helping you to delever, et cetera, et cetera. It would be helpful to get your perspectives there.

Joe Walsh

executive
#34

Yes. I mean, look, like I said, it's a big business. So it's -- even declining at around 20% a year, it's going to be around for a long time. We've [ bought ] a tremendous ability to variabilize the cost there and hold margin right where it is. In fact, we've been growing margin in the last number of years. We've automated and simplified that business and that type of business responds really well at scale. If you're kind of online yellow pages, having a few more advertisers join you doesn't really add much in the way of cost. If you've got a yellow pages and you add a couple of directories in another market or something, there's not a lot of costs that get added. So we've got a highly-efficient platform. And we're a known acquirer. We're kind of an acquirer of choice. So I think there's some more consolidation to possibly happen in the industry around the world, and that could also help us aid our entry into some international markets as well. So how long will it last? More than 15 years. I mean, it's not -- this is not a 7, 10-year thing. This is more than 15 years. And we believe that its decline is actually going to slow as we go forward. Now that's not the way we projected it in our financial models. For conservatism, we have it just running out at the decline rates that it's been, but there are a number of reasons to believe it will actually slow.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#35

Got it. Got it. No, that's helpful. And I guess maybe just last question. As you think about growth expansion opportunities, you mentioned international. You mentioned M&A and obviously continuing to kind of hunt in the zoo, I guess, as you mentioned. But anything else we missed there? I don't know if you want to comment on any of those 3 growth factors. I think you obviously did a great job kind of talking through the immediate opportunity with the current customer base, but maybe on some of the M&A, international expansion. Anything else?

Joe Walsh

executive
#36

Yes. So buying more zoos is one of the things we're doing. So the Marketing Services business, 4 years ago, we bought from AT&T and Cerberus, the private equity group, we bought their YP business, which was a big chunk of the United States, basically the former AT&T footprint, their yellow pages. And immediately upon acquisition, we went out and again to sell Thryv. And we found that in the first 18 months, we penetrated 9% or 10% of that customer base very, very quickly. And so we feel that as the Marketing Services side of our house continues to roll up its industry, it will basically, for free, provide to Thryv a new zoo to go hunt in, and there'll be lifts as we go through that. So I think that's really significant. I don't want to underestimate the ramping that we're doing in the dedicated channel. That's where more than half of all the sales will come from by early next year. So I mean, it's coming fast. We're really developing that quickly. There's one other thing we didn't talk about, but I think it's probably significant and worth mentioning. Thryv has an app marketplace attached to it. And Thryv doesn't do everything. It does a lot, but it doesn't do bookkeeping. You can get a QuickBooks or MYOB or Xero for that. It doesn't do payroll. There are payroll tools you can plug in. You can e-commerce enable a website very easily in our app store by just taking Shopify and connecting it. It's a fully-connected API, very, very simple, very easy to use. If you have the type of business where you need people to fill out forms and things like that to learn about them as you input them into your system, it's like a jot form tool. You can just pull that in. So there's a significant amount of integration into the marketplace that I think drives engagement with Thryv and allows Thryv to be the central platform. We really believe that Thryv will be the, capital T, The platform that you're kind of 2 or 50 small businesses operate on, not just in the U.S. but really around the world.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#37

That's great. Well, look, obviously, exciting times ahead. Great story. Thanks again for walking us through that. It seems like 2021 and beyond should be exciting times for the business. So look, thanks again. It was great hosting you, and we'll look forward to maybe hearing the story next year and all the progress you've made.

Joe Walsh

executive
#38

J.T., I really appreciate the time. We think, as you think about your investors and the people that are involved with you guys, this is a business that will more than double in the medium term. It's past the initial scaling, it's already profitable. And there's a big pop from here. And nobody knows about this thing. I mean we came public in a direct listing, which you're not allowed to do anything promotional, not to do any hype or anything. And when we came public, which was just a few weeks ago, it was into a quiet period. So we couldn't even do any press interviews. So we got through the quiet period. We did our earnings, which were very good at our last quarter, and we're now just getting started. We're like 1.5 weeks into beginning to tell our story. So it's a hidden little unicorn sitting inside of the yellow pages, for God's sake. So nobody really knows it's there. And in the long term, we will probably ultimately separate these 3 or 4 years from now. But right now, they're benefiting tremendously by being together. So it's a really interesting investor, a little spot to pick. If you've got a couple of year time horizon, it could be a really interesting situation. So I hope the best for your investors. Thanks for having me at the conference. I really appreciate it.

J.T. Stephens

analyst
#39

You bet. You bet. Thanks, Joe. and happy holidays to you and your family.

Joe Walsh

executive
#40

Same to you and yours. Thank you. Bye.

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