Cogna Educação S.A. (COGN3) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 7, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Roberto Valerio
executiveThank you. Good morning, everybody. How are you doing? Well, it's such a pleasure to have you all here. I hope you feel welcomed as Edu just mentioned, I'm very happy to be here. Having the opportunity to tell you a little bit about this journey and also talk a little bit about the perspectives of the next year. For those who are with us online. I hope you enjoyed this presentation. We try to come up with a material that is very instructive about our journey as -- and we will also talk about the future. So this first Slide, powering journeys talks a little bit about what we've built so far and what we expect to build. We believe that Cogna is a company that can help people that can build a diverse organization and can boost people in their individual and professional journeys. So hopefully, this is going to be a rather productive day. So to get started here. I think we can talk about Cogna day of 2020. We provided a guidance over that time. So in 2020, we had a guidance of GCO that represented a growth of like almost four-fold between those years. 2020 and 2024. So CAGR, we had here a figure of 44%. Our expectation rose, and we had BRL 1 billion in 2024. I know that many things happen that during this moment, but we saw lots of progress. Something else that we did on that Cogna day was the guidance of EBITDA. So this was a big challenge, try to grow 2.4x. And then this we wanted to have a 25% of CAGR. So that was the perspective for us to get to this BRL 2.4 billion. Let me tell you something. This guidance has a lot to do with the income of all the executives of -- that are work for this company. So of course, we will touch upon this topic internally and in the meetings with our investors. And whenever we are coming up with the estimates or the budgets, we do this in a very thorough way. So these are the 2 guidances that I would like to tell you. EBITDA BRL 2.4 billion, and we have cash [ BRL 1.1 billion ]. This is what we mentioned in 2020. But have to remember that we had COVID, Lots of things happened, how did we close 2020. First, information, our revenue at that time, dropped 16%, and then we closed the year with BRL 5.9 billion. EBITDA margin dropped as well, 21.8% and which was worse than 2019. So even the versus guidance that we had provided the EBITDA that was BRL 1 billion to get to -- we actually started with BRL 690 million, because that year, we went about many restructuring, especially growth and turnaround. So our EBITDA was not that high, but the cash flow, I think that the company's strategy is focused on that. So we were able to deliver BRL 240 million that year. So just to give you more insight, that was the perspective. So starting from an EBITDA of BRL 1 billion or something. We started the Kroton restructuring. We closed many units. We structured many things. We changed the portfolio. We adjusted the PCLD. And then that was the figure that we had BRL 619 million. So that was the scenario for 2020. What happened in 2021? The second big COVID wave. And it took a toll on us. So Vasta already -- had already done the sales of the education systems. The schools they had already bought that. We had the revenue. But in 2021, we had the second wave and it took a toll a lot on the basic -- the primary school market. The amount of students dropped. We had a decrease of 7.5% between those 2 years, 2020 and 2021 and it had a lot to do with the second wave of COVID. We were also able to sustain a revenue that dropped a little bit less than the market itself, but still we had a figure here of 6.7%. In this context, again, besides the impact of our operations, Brazil changed a lot over these 4 years. The GDP had some ups and downs. The average unemployment rate also increased. Interest rate increased as well. So 2020 or 2021, we had like around 2% and an increase to 13.75%. The interest paid and effective cost of debt was very high, and we had -- we reached a peak of BRL 740 million in 2022. So I don't think this is news for you, but I'm just trying to add some context here. So looking back at this past few years, right, we changed some strategies with the market. We talked a lot about a strategy of focusing on asset-light business. And I'll give you some examples of changes that we had in Kroton. So the reduction of campuses, increase in hubs, we focus a lot on the digital environment. We had an extension of PEP. Remember that this is something that generates a lot of revenue and EBITDA, but it delays cash generation, and we've learned a lot during that time, and we changed the structure. So PMT, it's something that you know it's a funding of a short-term funding, especially for those who are just entering the college or university, we also had a restructuring over there. We had an impact on the gross value of their monthly installments, but then we changed that in the net value. So we ask them to start paying it in the second semester. So we reduced the revenue because the difference was seen in the net value, not in the gross value. So we had a positive impact on our cash flows. At Vasta, what did we do? We focused on the educational systems especially in complementary solutions. A colleague of mine will touch upon this topic later on. And we also had a strategy which was to sell our schools. We had 52 schools, and we know that it consumes a lot of key [ packs ]. So still, it's a business that generates a lot of revenue and EBITDA. So focus on asset-light means to change the company's profile when it comes to revenue, cash generation and EBITDA. So we focus more on that. On the cash generation, however, we shift the focus from EBITDA and revenue. So now if I believe that you guys are thinking. If Roberto talked about those things, interest, all the challenges, maybe he is about to share some negative piece of news. But actually, that's not it. I'm going to tell you now about the guidance, but I just wanted to touch upon some of the challenges that we've had. So again, the focus was GCO. So we had BRL 230 million guidance with a CAGR of 44%. As I said, we had a better result because we were focused on that. So here from BRL 240 million, a CAGR of 43%. Moving on, we had -- we almost two-folded the cash flow. In 2022, we had BRL 540 million, so a CAGR of 50%. I think it's more than what we had before. So the pace was very good in the first, second year. And when we look at the 9 months of 2023, we see that we are growing 37% when it comes to cash flow when we contrast 9 months to 9 months. So we are still growing rapidly. Here, we have 37% of cash flow. And I must tell you that our fourth quarter should be a very good one for us because we have the PLND which is a very relevant program for us. I believe Fred will touch upon this topic. It's a line of business that provides us with lots of predictability. It generates cash flow, and it's part of our strategy. We make use of this cash flow to leverage the company. So we were already growing this 37% in these 9 months. When we compare this to the previous year, just so you can take a look at the graph. So in 2022, we generated BRL 540 million. And within those 9 months, we generated BRL 653 million. So more BRL 113 million plus. So -- and we still have some weeks until the end of the year. So we are growing fast. I feel that the consensus does not really reflect this cash flow generation that we have. The metric that I use is rather simple. So maybe using what the market says at EBITDA and conversion EBITDA to cash, the historical conversion, we would get to a consensus of BRL 709 million. So we are kind of close if we go above this for 2024. So the consensus -- the prediction is that we generate BRL 809 million in 2024, which is a growth of 14%, which is rather low compared to what we had before. So we are in the third quarter, growing almost 40% taking into account those years. So this is the first information. So I mean, we will beat the 2024 consensus and we understand that this BRL 1 billion cash flow is something that we will find, obviously, when we shared information about the fourth quarter. It goes without saying our cash flow for 2024 should reach BRL 1 billion. Obviously, it requires lots of effort, work. I'm not saying that it was something an easy achievement, but I'm just telling you that we will get there. So that's the first piece of news that I would like to share to -- just wanted to reinforce this conviction that we have. Regarding EBITDA, we started in BRL 1 billion cash flow. We went about many restructures. The Kroton and then we had BRL 690 million and we wanted to grow 37% each year. In the first year, we almost like two-folded. We had BRL 1.260 billion. Then we kept growing in 2022, BRL 1.460 billion, which is -- gives a CAGR of 45%, 46% within this period. And then we see another growth when we compare these 9 months to 9 months, 20% growth. So looking to the future, what does the consensus shows? For us to reach this EBITDA it's a growth that is below to what we are already delivering the first trimester -- the first third quarter. But looking at these 9 months, we are almost there. If we go beyond that for 2024, the consensus will be about BRL 1.970 billion. So the market -- I mean, we might have some impact on the speed, but the first -- the important piece of news is that we will go above and beyond the consensus. So we are rather optimistic about all that, but I'm just telling the story of all that. This is the consistency of our results. The difference, though, is that we are opening guidance with a range and why it's important for me to talk about range because the company changed it in these 4 past years. I went about the introduction. And I talked about restructuring, focus on the digital end of PEP shutting down schools. So we understand that the company value is connected to cash flow. So we have been insisting on that consistently. We believe that we can go up to BRL 2.4 billion. But given the restructuring of the company, I think that the lowest range would be BRL 2.100 billion. And this is connected to what we expect in the long run. But here, we have some figures that we truly believe in. It's important to say that this is above what the consensus shows us today. In the end, we are going to go from BRL 690 million. The difference is not that big. If we focus on the bottom range, we will get BRL [ 2.100 million ] and a growth of 32%. And if we go to the top range, BRL 2.4 billion, so reaching a CAGR of 37%. So very little companies would be able -- very few companies would be able to present results like that in 4 years. So we are very confident about that. So to wrap this up, the first message is the consensus is not truly adjusted to our reality as well as our perspective. 2023 has been a very good year. GCO after CapEx is confirmed of BRL 1 billion for 2024 with a CAGR of 43% and EBITDA. We have here BRL 2.1 billion and the top range would be BRL 2.4 billion. We will tell you how we are going to do this then. Talking about this next step then how will we do that? In 2022, we were here in the same room, and we talked about a strategy that was of a company that could act upon the core that acknowledges its business restructures these businesses, generates enough cash flow capacity, digital capacity, different channels, content this to be used for a different process, which is the generation -- creation of new projects. So we want to identify that and see where we can actually grow where there will be room for improvement. We haven't changed the strategy, taking into account the different years, but we are focusing on these 2 things, not only for 2024, but for the future. We wanted to provide you with information of 2024. So you can have the same perspective that we have. So we will also want to talk about what happens after 2024. Speaking of core, so we can be on the same page. What is the core of the company here? Undergraduate, and we also mentioned medicine graduate as well, which is something that we are going to reach BRL [ 200,000 ] of revenue. This is something that has been growing a lot. We also focus a lot on learning system. And I'm not only talking about the main ones, but the complementary services of Vasta in NBTP, which is a very -- another product that we have, and we have a predictability of this asset growing a lot. So it's very important for a company that is focused on cash flow. So let's talk a little bit about Kroton. So we have been touching upon this topic for a while and we are focusing on these 2 main avenues of growth. Medical education, hybrid and digital courses. These are the pillars that we would need to focus on for this company to keep growing as we have been showing this. In education, we created KrotonMed with a carve out. We have a different company, a different team that works on that specifically. It's a business unit that is growing a lot. We see a growth of 25% of revenue. It's a business of BRL 500 million. We have a good EBITDA margin. And it's very efficient because we are creating a business unit that is solely focused on that. And we have been able to become very productive, focus a lot on different subjects. So this is business that has been performing very well. And we have a very positive perspective. Nowadays, we have around 500 spots for these students, what we have in terms of assets nowadays, which is basically new units of Codo and Bacabal, they will keep improving. It means that we have 6 units in operations, and we have another one. It's part of Mais Medicos another program, and we are just waiting for the approval we can start going about the operations in 2024. These connected operations, the increased number of spots it will result in 838 vacancies of medicines. And we have 4 class for opening of medicines via injection. This was on hold, but we have seen that it's going to be progressing. We got one that received a maximum score of 5, to the lack of authorization. We are waiting for something else. But if the definition is going to be [indiscernible] vote, which is what we think will happen. We will have other -- more other universities. Each university has to 400 vacancies. And I mean it's a very relevant growth when it comes to vacancies, the amount of vacancies that we have. And when we look at the Mais Medicos program, we are very positive about that as well. So this is another opportunity for us to keep working on this, have more medicine schools and keep growing in that sense. So to sum up, organic will growth. And if that still happens, we will have many other opportunities, and we will have many opportunities for that. By looking at the project, especially the hybrid online one, well, we're going to do around 2024 that makes you feel so confident that you're going to make BRL 1 million a year. Well, it's not different from what we've been doing. We're being diligent it's advancing in the -- at the speech and nothing is going to stop our boat. First, we optimized the campuses. We reduced the unities of campuses, and we increased our partner hubs. So we reached 3,000 units. So we revisited the strategies for offering courses in person. So every year, we increase the participation of courses in-person, especially for veterinary courses and lock versus -- these are eminently in-person courses. So when we look at the student intake -- so every student intake in 2020, so as we see the figures here when we advanced to 2023, so we reached over 100 -- 800 intakes. So this is students intakes. Our student take over the last 3 years is growing by 15% on average by year but concentrated on low courses in person. But even though we are focused more on LTV, they are still growing those scores in-person. The second information regarding the scores. We've been working more and more on the quality of our products, on the assessment by MEC. Here, we see important information. When we look at the -- of the requisition of our institutions. So we see here a very significant growth. So the [ courses ] 4 and 5, they became 95% this year. Speaking of valuations, of course, authorization recognition renewal because first, the institution is assessed. When we speak of specific courses, we used to have 73% with excellent scores. And by 2023, it reached 84%. So we're improving the quality of our products, and this is being presented here through this -- these indicators. So we sell to lower-income classes. However, this shows the quality of what we are selling. Of course, that the student experience is not only related to the product quality, but to his perception of what he sees. We see the -- we almost doubled the average student NPS. When we compose all the brands of our institution, we are the most highly ranked company in the [indiscernible] site. And we've been awarded twice. This has nothing to do with our internal surveys, but we've been acknowledged by other companies, and they certified with [indiscernible], receiving the best NPS award from the 2023 and they carry out more than 3,000 surveys. And Anhanguera was not the most highly ranked, but they also recommend the Anhanguera experience. And this reflects on [ vision ]. We said that our growth rate of student intake is around 15%. The project is improving. The NPS is improving. Our dropout rate is dropping because sometimes when we increase our student intake, especially focused on online courses, it should be the opposite. I'm just trying to show you with numbers. It's been happening over the last 3 years. And you can see the statistics here. The students, they have been acknowledging that we have a much better credit average ticket profile. And the combination of all that makes that our base grows 9% since 2020 when we started restructuring, when we lapped 864 students. And now we have over 1,000 students, and it shows our consistency. But why do you think that 2024 is good? Because I don't see any reason that it's going to prevent us from going except if we have a tragedy, a catastrophe, but -- these are the data that show the reason why we are so confident. You asked questions regarding the average ticket. This is a very competitive market. But when we look at the average ticket, it's stable, we could say, oh, it's growing. I think it's stable. It's going up over the inflation. But I think that we are keeping the average revenue stable. And here is very representative of what we've been delivering. So we are trying to be competitive in prices, but then we try to increase the price over the years. So there's databases aligned with strategy so that we are able to deliver all that. So we let at Kroton from 2020 to '21. The revenue went down 14%, but we are growing by a rate of 12%. So it should keep going. Let's see what the economy is going to be like next year. So as we change the profile of our students in our group here, we have students -- like it's really high on site attendance. We have more students of on-site attendance. I think that our cost per student is going down, like increase of avenue, better experience. We are focused on the business whose average cost by student is growing. So we increase in efficiency. We're going to get there really soon, but it's not only about the primary cost. It's not only on that we've been working on. For example, you asked for like rental costs for example, are you going to close some of the units, what are we're going to control that? Back to 2019 and '20, we used to spend more rent than today. If we were to keep the same unit, the same readjustment that we had in contract, but we've been negotiating nicely. So our expenses on rent would be like much higher than before. So back in 2020, we used to spend a lot more and then 3 years later, so it shows that we are so much better when it comes to primary costs for both hybrid and digital, but we are reducing units. So we're going to spend less on security, cleaning staff, as I have fewer physical units. So we spend less on CapEx. We're going to touch on it in depth later. Well, we have the same volumes that we used to have before. You see that infrastructure CapEx could be stable, but it's been going down. As I said before, we have new units for medical school. So we needed to do that investment. Speaking of productivity, how many students we have per unit? Are we losing productivity and increasing vacancy in the physical space, but high on-site attendance students is growing regarding to campus. So back in 2020, we had 1.5 thousand and now we have 2.300 thousand students. Some of the students go to labs to work. So the profile of our campus. So we have like more labs now compared to classrooms because of the profile of the students. So we always have good results because we are improving all those indices. Can you see the results of Kroton. So we had a margin of 15.7% back in 2020. And now we are in 35%. So it reinforces the point. What do you think that Kroton is going to contribute to this cash generation for the improvement of outcomes. Well, the work is consistent and the numbers they get better and better. So quarter after quarter, we try to apply all these strategies. And when it comes to EBITDA, we left 434 back from 2020. And now we reached 934. And we believe that we are still going to grow. So this is a little bit of the Kroton story. I thought it was interesting to bring this PowerPoint slide here. We need time to really understand it. So we have 4 frames. So it's the worst one they're losing EBITDA and revenue. And the second one is when the company is growing EBITDA but the revenue is not growing. They're just reducing costs. And the second one is, I have a company that is growing both, EBITDA and revenue. This is the story of Kroton. Where we were and where we are now. Back in 2020, we were losing revenue and EBITDA. And then we put in Kroton in a good direction. But the revenue was not growing yet. We performed a very specific work regarding student intake, financial aid. So we were trying to create students to be here with us, but you want to renegotiate. So you have to make a bigger down payment. Let's split share fee and smaller installments. We had to pay this price back in 2021. So we were here back in 2020, 2021, we were increasing the EBITDA levels but we are improving a little bit more every day. So we are in a sector that doesn't grow so much. So it goes at around 1.5 per year, but I think we're growing more than that. That's the Kroton history. So our goal was to show you confidence, and we should believe that the business is still going to move forward, and this was the goal of this first part. But I would like to invite Guilherme Melega to tell about the story of us so that we can consolidate this first stage.
Guilherme Melega
executiveThank you so much, Roberto. Thank you so much for being here. I'm going to introduce you to Vasta. That's basic education sector of Cogna focus on B2B, and we're expanding into other businesses. I'm going to start with the history, and we're going to -- we just finished the cycle 2023. Remember that our business is measured commercially from the fourth quarter from the previous year to the third quarter of the following year. So that's how we analyze. The commercial cycle follows this period. So we start from 2020 because that was the year of Vasta setting up. So this asset-light was formed, and here, we can see the results in both students, schools, we've been increasing a CAGR of 6%, 7% and we reached 1.5 million students at the end of this last cycle. And we have over 5,000 partnered schools. We have over 1 million students. CAGR is around 6%. This is a core segment. We're talking about the basic discipline. So we hear the educational system is really strong. When we talk about traditional solutions such as bilingualism, socio-emotional ones. So we increased much more. So we increased at around 30%. So twice as much. So we two-folded the number. And we also increased -- double the number of partner schools. So Vasta used to be an asset-light company that was going to serve private schools and was focused on growth, and we're going to help our clients to expand. And that's what we see. We grew a lot in the core and also in the cross-sell as well. And the outcome is the growth in revenue. I'm going to start by talking about the total revenue, like total net revenue. So at the end of 2023, we reached 1,200 ACV. That's the type of contracts that we have with schools. They're usually a 3-year contracts, for both core and supplementary solutions. They are all comprised here, and we have a new segment that started in 2023. It's the B2G that contributed with BRL 81 million. And the non-subscription is about 10%. It used to be 30% when we started. I think we are reaching a very good threshold of around 10% in our revenue. While ACV is increasing at a CAGR of 21%, [indiscernible] educational solutions almost doubled here and the complementary ones almost tripled and the CAGR in revenue was over 40%. And what we're doing here, and I'm going to detail the complementary strategies. We are transforming the business of our partner schools in to better businesses. We are attracting more business to school, so that the school can offer, for example, bilingualism to students, and this generates newer businesses, and we end up growing together with our partners. And this is the consequence of gain of market share. We gained about 2%. The pricing as well. We are going to talk about academic results and reputation because it does generate better businesses to our partner and also a capacity of our school to be able to increase price. And throughout this 3-cycle trajectory, we had an adjustment of price of around 4%. So we had a gain in market share and pricing power and in cross-sell as well. Let's remember the IPO thesis. That's what we wanted to reach. So we wanted to help schools to grow. And with that, we are going to expand our businesses. So we can see this result here in the revenue that we were able to earn. We were going to give you the guidance in this event for 2024. So we start with a CAGR of 20%, and we're offering a guidance from [ 1.2 and 1.4 ]. So we are looking at the top range of our performance, but we are not exact science. It really depends on the number of students that will be enrolled. So there's always fluctuation here. So we have to keep our percentages higher because of such fluctuation. We are reaching the end of our campaign, and we are really confident about it. And this represents the maintenance of growth. And these numbers for us -- this was our like rice and beans. When we talk about adjacencies and growth opportunities. We have other growth payments, and we would like to focus on core businesses and complementary solutions. They are really growing at 20%. And when we look at the outcomes, this is also captured in EBITDA and cash generation. We've been doing well because of the reputation that we've been improving. And we are going together with these partner schools because even in our very competitive market, we're still performing well, and we're still -- keep doing it before 2024. I'm going to explain how reputation makes the difference and sets us apart from other competitors. When we look at the results here, this is our EBITDA comparing '20 to '23. So we ended with over 381. So we increased in both revenue and EBITDA. And the most important thing is we gained efficiency as well. For me, this is a materialization of a concept of the Vasta platform when it was designed back in 2020. It was focused on being very good company to service partner schools. We have a commercial [ Piaui ] digital platform and Plurall is our [ create ] platform. All our seals are served by a sole platform. We have a sole center of distribution, a sole area of logistics. And when we are growing, we don't grow expenses at the same rate because we work in an integrated system. So you can see how our costs are distributed, especially the costs in selling and marketing expenses. So we reduced those. So for me, this is the fulfillment of the fastest that they had in the IPO. And this works out, and there's a lot of space for us to grow. Now I would like to highlight when it comes to these staple visions, what else can keep growing, which are the complementary solutions. We have already talked about the 2023 cycle, we already have [ 454 ]. But for us to see the consistency of growth. Here, we compare how many schools have some kind of signed contract with us. We have 1,383 schools from our bases that have already signed for complementary solutions from 5,000. So we have 70% that still can be penetrated for us to grow. So this is something that we are still working on besides pricing power and other things. Complementary solutions is a flagship here and we -- there's room for improvement. And when we look at market opportunities taking into account complementary solutions, we're talking about a TAM of BRL 6.4 billion. This is the source here, Oliver Wyman. And we have BRL 6 billion that are spent from families in activities that are complementary to the monthly installment of schools. We're talking about languages, socio-emotional STEM and others, which is the main one is sport. So families already spent money on that. What we do, we try to associate with the school for the BRL 6 billion be channeled towards the basic education towards our partner schools. Look at the vast penetration. We have the bilingual educational system. Take a look at here, year per year, how much we increase the penetration. So that 27% of the last slide of penetration, it's the sum of this column here of penetration of those 3 main products, which is bilingualism, socio-emotional and makers. We believe that we can penetrate even more. We help schools a lot with these complementary solutions. This is a great avenue that we have ahead of us. And we also have a portfolio of digital products inside the platform that works towards this goal as well. We have read [indiscernible], which is a platform that corrects assays, making use of artificial intelligence. We have many products that make this propose much more robust and makes our platform premium and allows us to have great expectations when it comes to increasing penetration and maintaining this growth pace. When we talk about market share, the evolution of our market share, this is something that I have already pointed out, we had 2.9 points. So today, we have 24% of the market. We are one of the biggest players in the market and look how interesting the segment of others, which I mean we have many fragmented players. We have many networks that use their own materials and they try to sell their own materials without scale profit, without the services connected to platforms. So we can see those examples here in this 25%, meaning that there is lots of room for this player to grow. I mean they stop using their own materials and associated with one of our products. So again, lots of room for improvement when it comes to the core. We have a market that is much more competitive. And when it is not as competitive as in premium where the brand makes a difference. There's a saying that goes by, if you want to have low churn, you need to have strong brands and desirable brands. Because then you don't have a client, you have a partner. And we have many partners here when it comes to our premium segment. If we have any problem with our brand, school comes after us and say, "Hey, you need to improve this. The logistics is not working". We have partners. We work with partners, not clients. So when we look ahead, we think that growth is located in premium. So we were focused a lot where our premium brands or premium services are not that strong, which is north and northeast of Brazil. So we can grow a lot in that segment. And when I start talking more about start, I'll tell you about the potential of the premium market. I'm going to tell you how much people will pay for this monthly installments. The monthly fees. So growing in market share in segments that more low end, it generates -- it doesn't generate a lot of money. We were talking about schools that give -- have a big churn. But in the premium segment, it's very important. And why am I focusing on that? Because premium segment really depends on reputation. Reputation, that's it. That's the bottom line. Anglo is our main brand. It's our main product. And look at the reputation of Anglo, we brought some academic results, and we focus a lot on marketing in that sense. Besides these ones, we have many other things. We explored the annual yearly results and all the variety. So I brought some things to you so you can see at [ ENEM ], right. We have over 6,000 approvals. So students that studied in these schools, more than 6,000 were approved nationally wise. Here, the highlights and approvals, we have different institutions. So USP and UNICAMP where Anglo is very strong. They are the 2 top universities when it comes to reputation in Latin America. Anglo approved 830 students at USP and UNICAMP and 1,930 at USP. So let's talk about the courses. Medicine, for instance, 49 students that studied at Anglo they access -- entered the medicine course. And here, we have -- so this is the first figure. It's connected to UNICAMP and then we have students that were approved in medicine -- at the medical school at USP. So students that study at Anglo, somebody that enrolls their kid, their at Anglo, that's the expectation that they have for their kids. Here we have other results connected to UNIFESP and Unesp. Again, Anglo is the tier of quality, and it generates reputation is the lowest churn is our premium brand product, and we are still going to invest a lot on that. And what are we doing to improve this reputation more? I'm going to highlight PH. This is parameter that is very strong in Rio de Janeiro in the Southwest -- Southeast. Whenever we talk about [ ENEM ], we have here these figures, 1,264 students that were approved. When we talk about in the first positions, we have 133 that were approved in first place and look at these highlights here about medicine. So 43% of the vacancies were students of PH, this study system. So here, again, I'm talking about reputation in the main private school of Rio de Janeiro is [indiscernible], so 25% of the college entrance are students from PH. So again, reputation is something very important. I would also like to show you that we have other products that are very important and that are -- they have many reputation. I'm going to highlight Fibonacci. It's the third premium product that we have in is considered to be the second top school of Brazil. So we developed this educational system is the third premium brand and or product. So we have the third product here -- is considered the best education system. And the owners of this Fibonacci school, they are our partners in this process. So reputation, again, is key. Last but not least, I'd like to tell you a little bit about the investment that we are having -- doing here in Sao Paulo. Anglo has 2 units, Anglo [indiscernible], which was a unit that had over 60 years. the Cram School for that. So in July -- from July this year, we will change the place. It's going to become Anglo Paulista. We are located in Bela Cintra. It's -- this entire building over here. For those who know this used to be Sao Luis school. This is the new Anglo. This is what it will look like. We have 10 floors. These are some of the rooms. It's all focused on Cram schools. So remember what I said about reputation. So many of those students, they leave our Cram schools. So it's a very important investment for our educational system and our marketing. And we also explore the fact that we are close -- actually, you are in a floor of Vasta that we used to, whenever we talk to clients regarding that area, we use this space to show the results of Anglo. So we have the Cram school nearby and it's also something that we can make use with our partner schools. And the new one, we have this new unit that used to be located in [indiscernible] now is going to be located in Paulista and we have Sergipe unit that has also a high school within it. We have many students from Anglo São Paulo that are our high school students, and we partner up with Lycée Pasteur. For those who don't know this school, it has over 100 years. It's located in Vila Mariana. We have 120 square meters, and we will start operating this school. So students from Lycée will become Anglo schools and this is going to be a flagship here for us. So we have a Cram and a school itself. So keep this information because when I start talking about start, I will touch upon this topic again. So you can see how big the investment will be. And this is going to be a rather silent revolution because have the expectation of eventually double the size of our company. And just to wrap this up, I'd like to show you a video but I mean we haven't really purchased anything. We signed rental -- a renting contract. So there are no CapEx invested here. It was a very good opportunity that appeared. And from now on, we will also going to operate with Anglo Start inside this facility here. But I'd like to show you a video that in this last 2 weeks, this is what we showed to the families. And I know that you've been seeing many slides, I'd like to share you a video. I'll be back in a few. [Presentation]
Frederico da Cunha Villa
executiveHi, everybody. Good morning to those who are watching us online. I'm going to kick off this presentation here talking about Saber. As you know, we have Cogna and we have 3 main services or businesses. Roberto talked a little bit about Kroton. Melega, talked about Somos, Vasta, and I will talk a little bit about Saber. I would like to start by telling you about this National Books and Textbook Program. This is a federal program. It's a program focused on states. So it has over 30 years and it's a program that has been through different government and it's still here. I'm going to tell you a little bit about this program and the importance of it when it comes to cash flow of the company and the importance of the predictability of this program. So again, the National Books and Textbook Program, it's a federal program because it provides free didactic, pedagogical and literary works for students in the public basic education schools. It has a very deep impact in Brazil. So here, we have some figures, 33.1 million students, 178,000 schools, 5,600 cities and for 2023, the budget was of about BRL 2.35 billion. When it comes to the products -- what are some of programs, the products that us, from Saber provide to this national books and textbook program. Textbooks and literature books, training and management materials, digital resources and accessible books. And also -- it's also important to say how it works and what are the segments that the national books and textbook program covers. We have kindergarten. We have elementary school, elementary school 2 and high school. And on the next slide here, I'm going to tell you a little bit about the typical buying cycle of this program. Many times we talk to you, investors and analysts, maybe some of our stakeholders, we -- sometimes we face some challenges about predictability. And here, I want to show you how we can predict some of the cycles. The typical cycle starts in the notice where the government presents some of the rules, then we have the enrollment. So here, we have the publishers. They submit the pedagogical and teaching materials, then we go to the approval where the government qualifies the pedagogical and teaching materials, then selection. So the schools choose the materials, then we go to negotiation with among publishers and government and then the acquisition and distribution. So the books are purchased and distributed to schools. So this cycle -- this buying cycle, it takes almost 2 years as you can see here below on this slide. And it's important about the cash flow predictability because we don't have any delays on the payment. So this is very important. Moving on to the next slide, how this cycle works, so you can have more visibility. So again, if I have 4 programs, so from Kindergarten up to high school, so year 1, I have a purchase and 3 years of repurchase. So how does it work when I earn like I have a percentage of this repurchase. So I have 3 years of predictability of that market share over the repurchase. So year one, and again, I'm talking about a normal cycle. So we have repurchased on the year one and then 2 years of repurchase depending on the segment. So each program ensures predictability of revenue for the next few years. And what is the importance of the PE -- NBTP. So it's very predictable. And what is the most important indicator. If I want to show the predictability of our cash flow, what is important to display is that the market share of each program is fundamental when it comes to predictability of revenue and cash generation. So the graph that I'm showing you here, I'm talking about elementary school 2, which was the year of repurchase. And we contrasted it to 2019, 4 years ago with the purchase program. Thank you, Roberto, Rodrigo already mentioned that. Well, so looking at the market share we had in 2019, a market share of 26.2%. Now we got 7.3%, and we reached in the purchase program of elementary school to a market share of 33.5%. What is the importance of that, just to do some recap? The predictability that for the next year '24, '25 and '26. I will keep this repurchase program on the same market share and a message that is very important to point out. So I'll keep the market share so we don't have to deal with these delayed payments. So if I had this market share on the elementary school 2 in the next repurchase programs, I will try to pursue the same market share value. And -- excuse me, what does -- I mean, Saber is not all about that. I talked a lot about this program about the textbook, but we have other products here. In the middle, we have this Textbook National Program, the program of purchase and repurchase. We have the English textbooks like Red Balloon, Wings. We have the preparatory course of SAEB, which is Acerta Brasil. We have all this part of textbook Editora Saraiva, Atica, and scipione. So here, we have our portfolio of Saber products? And what do we expect for 2024. When we look ahead, we are very excited with this achievement, reaching this 33.5% market share when we look ahead of us? And what do we expect? We hear a lot from you, analysts and investors about the challenges when it comes to predict Saber? How can we predict this National Textbook Program. And here, I'm talking about Saber. So we are providing you with the guidance. This is the first time we're doing that. This guidance, we are starting in 2020, as Roberto mentioned, from BRL 161 million of recurring EBITDA in the low range, we will achieve for 2024 of recurring EBITDA between BRL 200 million and the top range would be BRL 230 million. So it just goes to show that how we will achieve Cogna guidance and to help investors and analysts to predict cash flow as well as our EBITDA. So it just -- it strengthen us. Having this look out to the future. We're talking about a program that has no debt. So this is one of the vectors of -- in terms of reaching cash flow -- operational cash flow for 2024. Moving on to the next slide, I will talk a little bit about leveraging. So since 2020, we've been talking a lot about that. The market is always focused on that. We are concerned. We are worried for us. This was always something important key. We've been discussing that internally with our directors and our Board but what I would like to share with you are some important messages. When we look at this graph, this is something that we'd like to show you because it shows what is the company's leverage in these last quarters. And I mean, how do we measure our leverage. We have the net debt over adjusted EBITDA. So we have 2 factors here. Number one, operational cash flow; and number two, our recurring EBITDA. So quarter after quarter by recurrency, our businesses are growing. So we grew our revenue and we reduced this debt, and we generated our cash flow. So just to remind you, this is not something that you will see in the graph. But in December 31, 2020, our leverage was threefold. What happened from that moment on? The GDP was low. We reached an interest rate of 13.5%. We are reducing interest rates. So looking ahead of us, in the first quarter of 2023, we reached of 1.98%. So looking at these results take into account EBITDA and cash -- and operational cash flow, it will reduce a little bit. But there's something that it doesn't really -- it's not up to us, which is interest. If the interest rate -- we look a lot at the Central Bank. Looking ahead of us, we think that this leverage should maintain a reduction threshold, but as I mentioned, we are doing our homework. So showing you a leverage of 1.88%. Next quarter, we believe that this leverage will -- is going to decrease a bit. The company, it has a cash position of 1 -- a net debt of 3.3%. So you can see all these in information here in the graph. So from July 30, 2022, that same time of the year 2023, we reduced almost BRL 55 million. So this is a decrease that is natural that has been happening in the company. This is not something that we should be concerned about but we have to pay close attention and we take this year. And when looking ahead, what's our focus? We talk about leverage, about financial results, outcomes and taxes. We are -- our goals are split in 3 main ones. So we have like -- the first one is debt cost reduction. So how I do [indiscernible] of debts and how to explore like the greenfield, the new markets and the new ways of financing. And based on our focus, we've been doing this since 2021, '22, '23. But by looking back at 2023, so what we've been doing. So the first one, we issued BRL 500 million, the CDI at 2.15%, and we bought back BRL 1 million in that where we brought result to the company of BRL 20.7 million on cash. It looks small, but this is a very good outcome to reduce net debts. We did the first issuance of an ESG debenture in the sector of education. It lasted 24 months. So the CDI tax was 1.9%. And we also did a raising of around BRL 85.7 million from Finep over 5 years at an average cost of 63% of the CDI. So the message that I want to leave with you is we are not worried, but we are -- we keep our attention level high. First one, the average after maturity is constant around 28 months. That's the average duration. We are looking at new opportunities of liability management. So we would like to lengthen this without harming the company revenue. Second, the work we've been performing is really important. Our student intake by looking at the graph back to 2020. So we did the CDI at a rate of 2.95%. And nowadays is higher. So the outcomes and the generation of cash and which leads the company to offer better financing taxes, and that's what we've been seeing. The company has many opportunities and markets and greenfields to explore. And lastly, on the slide, I mentioned that as we have a position of a study, we have a position of BRL 1.3 million. Our amortization schedule is BRL 1.2 million. So the company has cash and cash generation, about to mention here a few times over 9 months, so we generated BRL 652 million of cash. So for the next quarter, we have the predictability of the -- receiving the PNLD, and it shows how our operational cash comes on really strong and we want to deliver over BRL 1 million by 2024. Today, we have cash generation. And for us, this is really a normal scenario. Now I'm going to talk about CapEx. I've been talking to several of you in how this -- how it's predictability. Is the company going to spend more? The message I want to leave with you is, how is CapEx in the next coming years. So it's stable. So our business over the last years, have done a lot of technological investments. And in 2024, they're going to get to its final phase, but we are not going to have such magnitude in the technology for 2025. And the message I would like to leave you for the next few years is we have a very stable CapEx. Our CapEx for the following years won't have even a nominal growth. You're not going to follow inflation. What's the main message I want to leave. The company is growing. We've been growing over this last year, 2023, we increased 20% of EBITDA and revenue. So if I have the revenue growth. So the CapEx is not growing. So I have CapEx index reduced in comparison to revenue. This is a third leverage of operational cash generation and debt reduction. And lastly, I would like to show you our company with the operation generation cash that we performed. So we generated 100 -- over BRL 100 million compared back to 2022. And with the leverage that I mentioned before, the company has a capacity of generating operational cash and pay its debt. And this is the message that I wanted to leave with you. So I talked about knowledge, about leverage, the company is moving forward. So the manager -- the management, which is led by Roberto and Rodrigo. And now we are going to -- I'm going to pass the floor to him. So thanks everybody.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you so much. I think we're going to and hear the first round of the morning. We're going to have a 10-minute break. So we're going to have a coffee break here. If you are at our office in [ Belize ], we are going to be back in 10 minutes. We are going to have like a half hour for Q&A. So there's like many questions being asked on guidance, and we are going to talk further about it when we're back. So we'll have a Q&A session, which will last 30 minutes. Thank you so much, and we will see each other in about 10 minutes. [Break]
Unknown Executive
executiveLet's go back for whoever is online. We are back from [ Belize ]. I hope you're following us. So we just had a break here, just like Eduardo said, we are going to go into the second part of the meeting. The first part, we wanted to show our mission, the guidance of EBITDA and cash are reachable and the relevance in structure and consistency of the work that we've been performing here. And it's really -- but I know that you know less but we are here to disposal. If you want to know more about it, just like Fred said, we are going to be able to help you and pass down the future guidance for year. In the second part, we are going to separate in 2-3 different sections. We're going to speak of ESG and culture more specifically here at Cogna, we believe that culture are not only good access but they reveal engagement, talented people, and they make the difference. We're going to talk about culture and in the second section, we are going to talk about future. If we are convinced that 2024 is just around the corner, and we are going to reach the results that we propose ourselves. So if 2024 is already like granted. So what's the future going to be like for Cogna? What are our long-term strategies? But in the second part, we are going to talk about the future of Cogna. We are going to split in 2 different moments like the short run on the adjacencies, the things that we can start doing based on our capacities and what we've been already doing and then we're going to talk about a more disruptive aspect. We are not going to leave our department but the segment of education, it's really why there's many subsegments under this umbrella. And what we could do and reach even if it's -- even if it lies outside our core but it's relevant to be here. But before that, I would like to talk about ESG. So there's many different approaches for ESG. The first topic that I'd like to touch on is our sales and the ratings and the ratios, the indices, the certifications, they speak for themselves, even though we have a lot of story to share. These are certifications, which are really hard to acquire. We need to have a constant performance. We are constantly audited. We are going to comment some of those. We're really proud to be part of the ISEB3. We've been ranked for 2 consecutive years. There's no other educational company, which has been awarded that and it's -- it was a long path. We have to be certified in the CDP. There's a few prerequisites that we need to have. Besides competition, there is among different companies. Besides that, the index of CO2 emission and the index of Great Place to Work as well, companies which are considered good to work at. So we are really proud of the indexes that we reached and 2 other awards and acknowledgments, which are important for us. Well, one of our pillars here is diversity. We are certified well in the Bloomberg Index. So we reached that in 2023 this year. I'm going to talk about some of our goals and how we are progressing and women's in leadership as well. So we had 14 commitments for Cogna for about [indiscernible]. So we have gender equality, not only on the basis of our employees. This is also a very important point for us. In terms of volunteer and public commitments, we participate in the form of companies and LGBT+ grades and also women empowerment. So we participate in the Apples Institute. And we also joined the Global Pact movement. So those were all partnered. The transparency movement, 100%. The -- they are leaders in 2023 and raise its priority. So those groups, they are autonomous, and they can propose with our employees to propose actions and the company finances all that. So it's important -- it's also important to mention the movement ambition [indiscernible]. There's also the GHG protocol as well. Even though we are not a company that generates an impact on the CO2 emission reduction, but we try to do our bit here, the ProEthics seal that we just received. We recognize the efforts that all the part of compliance and all the structure of -- the governing structure are really, really strong here and the Great Place Work that I already mentioned. And not only that as a company but one of the best companies for women to work. So we were awarded that and the seal of women on board as well. We have a very relevant distribution here. So among 5 of our counselors on our Board, 2 of them are women. So we have the seal citizenship company. And I think these seals they speak for themselves. There's a lot of work in the background, and it's a work that have been carrying out over many years, and we keep making progress. And this afternoon, we are going to have an ESG forum. We are going to have 3 tables -- round tables based on 3 pillars that we really support. Regarding our goals in 2023, we launched the 14 commitments for a better world, according to Cogna. So these are the main things, environmental, social and government. We launched those in 2021, and we have goals for 2025. So we already met with 98% of the goals that we propose ourselves. So I think we're still going to make progress through 2024. So the first one, maintain 90% renewable energy by 2025. So we reached 96% of this goal. So I would like to highlight other 2. So there is one here that makes us very enthusiastic to reach a generic quality as well. So we are -- we reached 89% of the this goal, 40% of the positions occupied by black people here. So we reached 92% but more than having black people in our company. So we want to make them leaders and we want to make them have their voices. We want to make sure that their voices are heard in our company. So we reached 74% of leadership positions of a black people. It's not only speech but it's a practice we have here and in the last item here, we have 2 indices here, like 1/3 of women, black, LGBTQIA+ in the Board of Directors, so we went over 100% but I would like to highlight the last item here, which is integrate ESG goals into senior management's variable compensation by 2023. So the ESG has been part of that since 2021. And I think those are concrete commitments. So just you know, we have an ESG Board that reunites internally, one at the secrecy level and the second one on the consoling level. It's something that we take really seriously. And we carried out an impact of the CO2 emission, and we didn't have a goal for such reduction. But we are proposing this. This is a new goal, but we want to reduce the total volume of our GHG emissions by 50% by 2032. And then you can -- oh, what is the effect of greenhouse gases, what is the effect of those? For example, the PNLD, which visited the schools and presents our textbooks, so we have like trucks, right? So we have those cars that we use that [indiscernible] uses. We have representatives that uses those cars. But I think the air conditioning equipment here that generate a lot of greenhouse effect and they issue tonnes of greenhouse gases [indiscernible] atmosphere. Turning to culture now. Here in Cogna, we call culture like the Cogna way and I'm always going to talk about this topic because it's a very important theme in all of our employees talk about the way that we leave things here. Basically, we are talking about big [indiscernible] and values, and they use that for project designing. And one of the most important ones is our proposal that we want to drive to build a better version of themselves. And there is a connection with the opening of our slide because we can be an organization that boost their journeys. We don't want to sell an education [indiscernible]. And then after that, I don't know if I'm going to meet that student and how the student journey is going to go down. So we believe that our company can boost their journeys because we study constantly. We start elementary school, and we follow a journey until the end of high school. We have the same activities, the same courses. We attained the same social environment. But after that, the journeys, they transform completely once going to become an entrepreneur. The other one is going to be -- is going to live like in the countryside of Brazil and the journeys they start a little different. So at some moment, they are going to become more like employment than education. So we have incredible cases here in the work that we perform here and when it comes to employability, we do a lot of research in the topic, and it shows that people -- scholars said that before but now they're having like 2 or 3 different carriers over the course of the years because after sometime they look for different activities. We have -- like older people looking for different jobs and changing their careers. So we understand that this purpose, which is not new, I already mentioned it last year when we talked about the Cogna way of doing things. But the most important thing is we have to open our minds to be a company that -- like we were last year, I mean. We were focused on specialization course, and now we offer undergraduate course and basic education courses as well, not only graduate school. So with values, which are really simple, synthesis, people joined the meetings, they want to join the business units, and they want to do specific movements. We've been doing -- enter business projects. And they use this expression, we are a team and not heroes. What I do hear at Saber can be beneficial for Kroton as well. We deliver results. We are entrepreneurs. We are -- we constantly talk about growth mindset. We went through a restructuring stage, organized a core. And if you want to have like high rates of growth, we need to have synthesis like this. Our relationship is direct and respectful. The student/client success is our success. We are offering better products and better [indiscernible] comments as well. We try to make our difference. And when we talk about diversity, we're not talking about gender, we're talking about different ideas that people can bring to the table because education is a group of all of this. And of course that in order to boost this culture, we need to have -- creating master, not only me, Fred or Melega or 2 or 3 people here. We need more people to believe that in our everyday life here at work, we need people to believe that. So that's why we try to focus on culture of society, [indiscernible] owners, we have over 60 partners here, they have actions here. Our stakeholders, they authorize, they granted part of their assets so that they could be delivered to some of our employees. We do not understand that as a benefit of private package. We understand that a long term contract, we meet with them constantly, we discuss themes. They are aware that they can move the company into different directions because all decision may go through these people so other stakeholders come to talk to them. And once we brought a stakeholder to talk about the expectations and visions that our partners had, an opportunity to ask questions directly, to this stakeholder that I mentioned. So I don't think this is -- to have such a partnering culture and having people who believe in a company is what makes me believe that we are going to build more things together. And this group, we believe that 1 company can only deliver good results if we have talented people engaged. We accompany that in our indicators, and I brought some of those. And I'm going to explain because not of all those concepts are familiar to you. And the first one is that eNPS. It's like E is employee NPS, not of our client, but of our employees. So we measure this indicator, would you recommend Cogna or not to your friend to work here? So by an intensive work, so we were able to increase our NPS levels. So we moved from 58 to 72. That's the number of promoters minus detractors. We have a lot of people who promote our companies, and I say that in a very transparent way. And we say, oh, we want to be a company where people want to work at. But unfortunately, there isn't a position for the person. This is such an incredible company, but I haven't been able to join this company. We talk about that, but this reflects those numbers. The LNPS is the leadership one. That's leadership NPS. Well, the question we ask is, would you recommend your boss to a friend? You understand that they are an admirable leader. Are you satisfied with their management approach? This is an indicator that was already high. And the last one is the favorability index, which means how much you like the company. And we increased by 90% (sic) [ 19% ]. So I think we're reaching almost 100%. I think that's the maximum that we could reach. Those are our internal indicators. But we also have like external ones. The Glassdoor is one of the entities that we catch up with. If we compare this Glassdoor indicator, if we compare 2020 to 2023, so we have an increase of 0.7 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points is already really good, like famous companies, very known, well-known start-ups have a percentage lower than that. And the Great Place To Work field, that I already showed you, it really reinforces what we've been talking about. And I would like to end this ESG section. And now we are going to start talking about 2024 and what lies ahead. And now we are going to split into different sections. We are going to explore adjacencies and what else we can do based on our capacities, distribution channels. And we have competent people involved, we have brands. I would like to invite Melega to open this session. He is the Vasta, CEO, so he can deepen the themes that we already touched on.
Guilherme Melega
executiveAll right. So let's do some recap in terms of the first part. We talk a lot about our core -- of our core values. And before diving deep in terms of the adjacencies, we have to focus a lot on our core values, which means keeping the reputation of our brands, enhance market share, make that our school clients have more reputation, that they grow with us, they take ownership of the values because towards the end of the chain, we know that the families, they have to pay higher prices for the -- for our business to keep improving. We have been having a very good track record, and we want to keep having this progression. So this is top 1 priority, focusing on our core values. Besides that, there are 2 amazing projects that are very connected close to our core business, which provides us with lots of [ legitimate ] for us to perform. The first one is Start, Anglo bilingual school. We are launching network of bilingual schools focused on Anglo reputation and our skills and expertise on bilingualism. How did we come up with that? First of all, this is very close and connect to our core. This is a 100% asset-light initiative. We are a franchisor, we have the systems, we have the content, we have a flagship. And you saw Liceu, Liceu is going to be the second flagship of Sao Paulo, but again, this will happen in 2025. In '24, we are focusing solely on Anglo Sao Paulo. We are going to do some -- shift some gears when it comes to Start. But here, this is very important. This is the motto. We have the first bilingual school of high performance of Brazil. This is a reference. We have high academical performance. You don't need to shift the focus from accessing or passing the college entrance exams. And how did we get to this conclusion? We have a very large basis. We have over 5,000 schools, and we accessed over 7,000 families. And that's the question we asked them, what is your expectations preparing your kids for inning and entrance exams at the best universities? Did you find this unimportant whenever you research schools? Do you think it's not that important? Or is it -- it's very important, and look at the results of the research. Almost 76% of the family said that this is very important for schools to have high academic results. And the second question was, what about bilingualism? What is your expectation when it comes to the [ capacitation ] of your children in school? For the school to teach them how to speak English. Is it unimportant or very important? Again, we see here the results saying that it's very important. We have been seeing this happening in Brazil. Many bilingual schools are opening. And this is tricky because the responsibility that, that involves. This is the expectation. The family's expectations now, they are focused on the schools. And this is the scenario that we have today. And this research only goes to show that families -- again, I'm talking about the private system, they want excellency, they want their kids speaking a second language fluently. It's not only about passing the exam, passing a proficiency exam. They want their kids to speak the language fluently. And we also identified that there are no proposal in the market nowadays that takes into account these 2 things. We have many proposals focusing on bilingualism, many networks that explore bilingualism, focused on an international branch, maybe focusing on kindergarten or elementary school, but they are not there yet, delivering a high-performance education focus on the college entrance exams. And we have many schools that focuses on this other aspect. But again, they don't just -- they don't deliver the English capacitation. And that's the idea we try to connect these 2 things. And we wanted to show you the size of this opportunity. And why are we talking about this? Remember, we are the franchiser. We are not going to invest CapEx on schools. We attracting partners that will do these investments, and we are going to provide them with all the know-how for them to operate. TAM of this monthly payments that they do, that these people pay, we have here 6.7 million students that generate BRL 66 billion of these monthly fees. In terms of the premium segment, we estimate that it's a little bit half than that. So BRL 30 billion of these TAM belongs to the premium segment. And I'm talking about these monthly payments that reached more than BRL 5,000. And here, we have 440,000 students that generate these 30 billion. So remember what I said before, that the value is on the premium and a lot of that has to do with the school fees. And what have we identified. There is a demand here for those family that they -- that shared that they want high performance education as well as bilingualism. And here, we have 205,000 students with this potential, enrolling schools that offer these kind of combinations. So these students, they are already studying in a specific school today, but there is no school with those 2 options. And why is that? Because we have -- we don't have that kind of school in the market. We are opening 1 right now. What do we expect in terms of capturing? So let's talk about the launching. We launched it in bett, which is the biggest show of the area. We started doing PI, we started talking to our bases -- school bases offering Start and market in general. It's this vast sea of opportunities. So we have already talked to 366 prospects and we signed 10 contracts. This number changed yesterday, last night, now it's 11 because last night, we've signed another contract, [indiscernible], and this is very important because the first Anglo operator in the '60s outside Sao Paulo, the first Anglo unit in [indiscernible] campus was belong to [indiscernible]. He showed this -- [indiscernible], this unit to [indiscernible] Group of South, and they started operating it again through Start. So this is the 11 contract that was signed. So the first Anglo now is going to be one of the first ones to embark on the Start units. So this is very important for us. It's just an acknowledgment of what we're doing. So besides this case, we have other Anglo partners that embarking on Start, partners from Cogna, from [ Paulo ], that they want -- they are interested in our businesses. So it just shows the synergy that we have. And we have this growth avenue here. We identified 120 opportunities to provide services for those 205,000 students. We opportunity -- we identified 120 white spaces for this school to work. So we have 1 school in São José do Rio Preto, and we will have another 1 in Alphaville, which is going to be a franchisee unit, it's a franchise. So it's reality. Start is already a reality, and we are -- the goal is to reach 92 units by 2030. So we start capturing those students from the kindergarten and elementary school 1. So the average size of those schools is going to increase a lot, which is a big driver of value for the franchisor and the franchisee. We estimate that we will have around 468 students per school. This is a maturity point for these schools. The estimate is that we have around that number in 2030. And let's remember, guys, here, we had 205,000 students, potential students. So by 2030, we expect that over 40,000 would be in -- will enroll in a start unit. So we are going to explore these segments. And this is sort of a silent revolution that is happening in our premium sector because it opens a potential of like those -- these monthly fees. We're talking about 3 billion of these school fees. So remember, we are the franchisers. So this billion, they don't belong to us, but 6% of that are our royalties. So we are talking about 160 million reaching this business plan. Besides the textbooks, which is another growth avenue nowadays. The textbooks of Start are sold around BRL 4,000. So it's a very thorough material. We have social thing -- social aspects. You have the key subjects. So we have another revenue stream that is very important that has almost the same size of the other royalty. So we -- our growth projects are 3. Focusing on our core values, Start, which is a very stream avenue that it's already a reality for us. And the third, which is B2B. So just to wrap things up about Start, let me show you the 2 units that we are going to launch. This one is located in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, here, 316 students. This is already in operation, by the way. In Alphaville, it starts in 2024. We already have 150 students enrolled. So it just goes to show that our business plan is on track. We are going to perform whatever is that we are estimating and the contract ramp-up is going to be rather decisive. So we need great operations -- operators. So this is a franchise that demands some millions of investments. So it really depends on the size of the franchise, depending on the school size, and we need great operations. There are many doors that are opening up. We're talking about corporators of built to suit, that they've been saying that they are available and willing to provide us with support. So Start, I believe it just represents a very prosperous path. You will hear us talking a lot about Start. It's a project that it was born strong and already with legitimity because it's connected to Anglo. Now let's talk a little bit about B2G. This is something very recurrent because we've noticed that the revenues are great, and people have been asking us many questions about this. So I would like to tell you a little bit about the internal education that we did about this sector, trying to explain the complementarity of Vasta, like what does Vasta think about that, and try to connect our knowledge and expertise to Saber. So let me focus a little bit about the size of this market and how is the budget. When it comes to students, remember, from everything that we've mentioned before, our core in Start, they are -- we're focusing on these 6.6 million students from the private educational system in Brazil. The public one, we have 32.7 millions of students that are part of the public system, public educational system. How much do we have here in terms of budget? Like nationally wise, I mean the government, the states and the cities that is focused on basic education in 2021, we had BRL 402 billion. And this is very complicated. And we hired Ben to help us understand and map out this public budget for the public system because we have many taxes. We have different things focused on the cities or different royalties. So these figures that we are showing you, there's no website that you can access and find those figures. You have to now analyze everything to try to come up with this result. So we have these BRL 402 billion. In 2020, we had a bill that passed, 108, that increases the amount of the government to, Fundeb. So our interpretation of what is -- that is connected to Ben, should takes us to a scenario where we will have BRL 28 billion being sent to these public funding to education. Here, we have some that goes to this institution called Fundeb. And 28 of those are connected to the betterment of academic improvement. So those who show that they improved the performance of their schools, they will get access to more money. So if they improve the academic aspect, and it also has an improvement on the academic equity. There's a lot of dispersion. So if we try to reduce that and improve the academic results, gives more access to these public -- to the public systems to new sources of funding. So that changed the strategy through Vasta. It changed our perspectives. And here, we build, alongside with Ben what would be potential, bottom-up looking at the budget in 2026. So everything that I'm saying here, I'm talking about BRL 467 billions, which is our estimate with Ben. Again, this is our external consultancy company in terms of the budget of basic education to the public system. So here, we think that there will be BRL 28 billion besides what is already expected. So we identified many opportunities for 2026. We're talking about BRL 87.7 billion, which are close connected to our business. So we're talking about textbooks. We're talking about platforms, teaching platforms. We're talking about complementary materials. We're talking about academic management and a big adjacency of new businesses that could be explored. So this is conceptual if you try to find these BRL 87.7 billions -- this is our expectations for 2026, built on what we can predict in terms of the budget as well as this bill that passed that in 2021 already added or injected more BRL 4 billion in this government budget. In other words, this is already being used today, more than half of it is designed or is channeled to salaries. So everything is being spent. What we're looking at is what is -- what are the increments. And I can tell you, this is already a reality. So let's add more color to this BRL 87.7 billion. So this week, we had a new information, and we have the new information of PISA, and they are rather interesting. So Brazil is like -- is 67 -- ranked at 67 or 65 among the other countries. But a very important information is that the Brazilian students of the private system, they had great results, close to the top countries of OCB. In other words, I mean, what we're doing in the private sector of Brazil is close to the best world practices. So if we are one of the best players of the private sector, we can provide that to the public segment as well. Especially when it comes to services with platforms, assessment platforms, we developed inside Plurall, adaptative platforms. large-scale platform, teaching training, all of that can be scaled. So here, we have business opportunities for us to improve the performance of the public system. And if we improve the performance of the public system, obviously, taking into account their own missions, but then they will have access to better budgets or better funding. So it's another cycle that starts being created, that from us, taking into account our expertise in the private sector, we understand that we can provide these other sectors services and share our technological expertise to them. And we signed this first contract in 2023. We are providing services to the state of Pará. We have 340,000 students. We are focusing a lot for the preparation for the SAEB, especially subjects like Portuguese and Math. And we are trying to improve the -- their assessment criterion. The Education Secretary of Pará, he's very knowledgeable. So this person, with us, identifying this opportunity for us to improve Pará's education. And this contract generated BRL 81 million in 2023. And we felt very honored to serve this -- that state. With the high NPS, the first SAEB result is going to be released in April with the preliminary numbers. And I just believe that is going to legitimize everything that we've done. And the expectation is very big to sign other contracts. So I'm talking a little bit about Saber, Vasta, Somos. So we don't have a commercial area that knocks door to door to schools, like which is the marketing of a [indiscernible]. We work in a very specific niche. And with the help of this consultancy agency, we were able to map out the best deals or the best opportunities or where the best [ inclinement ] or budget for that kind of solution. And this is what we are addressing through people who are seniors here in our team that does a very customized pitch. I believe this is a key word. We have to customize everything that we do to the public system. So we're talking about a market that is rather different from everything that Somos did in the past and what Saber does. And then a very recurring question comes in. What is our expectation for the future of the B2G? Well, the curve says a lot here about our expectation, and we -- we've talked a lot about that. We wanted to understand that. We wanted to embrace that when it comes to pricing. However, we have a contract. We have only a dot on this curve. You now, I talk about tendencies and commit ourselves with the guidance. I think it's too early for that. What can we tell? This market is enormous. There's a lot of new investments, which are going to be invested and [ designed ] to what we can do best, which is to improve dispersion. We have a lot of [ legitimacy ] to serve this market. And in combination of a very big market and a very good team, we know that it's going to turn out a good business regardless of our focus. We are a B2B company focused on the private market. This is an adjacency. But it can be a very big one. What do you expect for next year? Minimum to increase the CAGR of around 20%. Just to give you a number, of course, that we expect more. And throughout next year's harvest, where we're going to have different contracts, other customizations, maybe we'll be more educated to tell you future trends. But now we can say that we have a great ambition, a great market and a great [ legitimacy ] that is bigger than all of that. I think this is going to be really huge. This is going to be really great. And we have great expectations for the future. It's really high on both ends. And our stakeholders expect a lot from us. That's what I want to share with you about B2G, 3 priorities: rice -- good rice and beans, starch and B2B. We don't have 5 or 6. We don't have M&As, great ones. We don't have capital investment outside of that. And now we are growing more, investing less. Thank you so much.
Roberto Valerio
executiveThank you so much, Melega. So there's great opportunities for Vasta in these new segments. I would like to talk about other adjacencies that we have within Cogna. And I'd like to talk about 2 specific ones, which offer relevant opportunities, which is EJA, adult and youth education and technical one. I need to share with you a little bit of EJA. When we talk about such a framework, and we do a correlation with the previous [indiscernible] framework. We think of an education, which is focused on an NGO, the evening shift for students who are older, who are trying to go back to the market. They are trying to learn how to read and write. We understand that there is a great opportunity of building on a market that is, from a commercial point of view, is really small because they're restricted to these NGOs, but they have a great potential. What is the EJA? This is a framework where students who were not able to finish high school or elementary school, middle school. They can do it in a very fast way, for example. This is not applicable to a 14-year old, but to a 17-year-old. So they're focused on a profile of students who are past that age. So how many students in Brazil who are over 17 years old, and they were not able to finish high school. So 56 million of Brazilians haven't finished a part of like middle school or even high school. So they cannot have a job. You can be, I don't know, like a business man, like a small entrepreneur, they cannot be a nurse or a lawyer because they haven't finished high school. And obviously, they have access to fewer job opportunities that can be life-changing. There's about 55 million Brazilians, that ton is not proportional to the size, the true population size. And I'll go back to the initial question. Well, it is restricted to NGOs to city halls, to the audience who study on -- like on the evening shift. And maybe there's not -- we do not see like a growth opportunity because there's no distance education units. There's no marketing here in Sao Paulo, go downtown and I'm sure there's like a small [indiscernible]. I'm going to go to a second floor, and I'm going to study when I have access to this framework. Well, the opportunity we see there is to take such framework to the transformation that has already been performed in for undergrad school. Well, they were like on site. They were not largely distributed. They were difficult to be accessed. They were expensive back in the day. We are not proposing to teach people how to read and write. We want to contribute to people who are -- study like middle school and high school. We want to make them advance in their careers. So we have distribution channel, educational knowledge to take a product that we are already selling. So we have -- we still have a very small volume of students. But if we think about it, this 56 million people, I think everyone here has a cellphone. So we're designing this project, it's an EJA project framework for middle school and high school. So we are not going to teach people how to read and write through a cell phone. But this is a project that is going to offer a service through cellphone so that we can increase distribution. We have to promote it because people don't know about it. And we believe that this number here, this 55 million people, we are going to be able to increase this TAM. This is in line with our proposals, with our mission to boost people in their careers. So I'm going to offer such a product. They're going to finish their high school and then they're going to go to tech school, community college, and then maybe university. This is not only a concept or idea. So we have authorizations to work on the EJA, and we are already working on a project here, both online and on-site. The second opportunity which represents a much higher TAM, which is BRL 3.6 million. There's a lot more engagement in communication involved. And it's really common to see it on the news and see people talk about it. The Ministry of Education had an initiative in order to allow that the higher education institution to offer technical courses. And we joined them, and we were granted the authorization from the ministry. And we are launching some on-site courses focused on nursing in some of our units, but we are also offering like the hybrid models. It's one of our main strengths here. We are doing really greatly for undergraduate courses. When we think of students over 14, well, the student can, for example, do high school and technical schools, so that's why we are focusing on this audience. So we have a number of 62 million Brazilians who could be interested in this course. I haven't seen any other player offer it but there's many other players offering technical. So I think this is going to have like a bigger buzz on the Internet. I think we can grow a lot through this project here. We are going to have the CapEx 0 because we have the online structure. We have a -- we know how to do digital marketing, the funnel. But here, we are going to develop project for the EJA framework and show the availability of such courses. I think this is a great opportunities with a very low cost. And now that we have the core really well rounded. We are able to test new adjacencies. As I said before, graduate school is growing at a 30% rate within [indiscernible]. So it's going through Anhanguera. But we have started a new project that we've been testing for over a year, and it's doing well. We're calling a partner graduate school. There's many institutions, companies and organizations, research institutes, advertisement agencies and like personalities, maybe an economist, a teacher, who would like to have a graduate school. They know of term, but they cannot design such a product. I brought an example that we announced over this last year. It's a partnership that we did with A.C.Camargo. So it's the greatest Cancer Center in Latin America, they invest a lot in research and treatment and diagnosis. So they already had an educational initiative, but it was like mainly on site. So they have their campus, their hospital. And we decided to partner with them in order to take those courses. We have like 3, oncological nutrition, nursing, we have a speech therapy. This not only for physicians but for nutritionists and nurses as well. And -- well, the sector of health really goes a lot, so we are really focusing on that. And so far, they didn't have a platform that we are -- that we offer, like a technology -- technology where the onsite experience could be replicated like a distribution channel or [indiscernible]. Well, we know besides an authorization of the Ministry of Education so that we are able to operate graduate courses. I would like to talk about a second case, but we're still going to sign a contract. We are going to talk about it next week, if all goes well this afternoon -- I don't know if it's this afternoon or tomorrow. But we are partnering with a very, very respected branch, but they do not have the same competencies of distributions. I hope we are able to speak publicly about it next week. We recently partnered with Me Poupe through Professor Mira, and Nathalia Arcuri herself. You probably know them. They're really strong in preparation courses but they're not graduate courses. They need to follow specific regulation, a course load, you need to be authorized by the Ministry of Education. When we talk about the online learning environment, for example, I can upload my courses on YouTube. I have access to tools. However, the regulated academic experience is different from that. So we launched -- well, I cannot speak in details, but we were able to earn millions of reals with our partner. Well, Me Poupe is a company, but I just wanted to show you that we're not only targeting on entities only. We're talking about publicity agencies as well. They have their needs, and there's a myriad of opportunities with the skills that we have, those are adjacencies. So one day, we bring a partner who has a good reputation in the market. They are really strong on social media. And together, we can be stronger, right? This is like shared revenue. However, we -- if we bring many players to this investment, we are going to reduce the CapEx investment and we can really benefit from those partnerships. We've been experimenting this for around 2 years. We have an OPM cell that offers services to other institutions. We have 3 institutions, which are regional, and they use our platforms to sell our products. We do -- we go to marketing in partnership with those organizations. We see there's many opportunities. There's many things happening here inside our companies, but we would like to bring a few like examples. So we started a few months ago, like 8 months ago. So there's only 1 data occurred, but we already have a contract. We have a few examples. But I'd like to talk about innovation now, something that is different, something that we haven't done before, but something that could really work. Well, we're not going to make BRL 80,000 million, like overnight, but it can make the difference. We're not talking about 2024. We're going to talk about the years, like down the line. I'd like to talk about Cogna Labs, what are those? Cogna Labs to be cohenent with our concept of ambidextrous. So ambidexterity. So it helps the core. So you probably have heard about the open innovation concept, so I bring startups, which are specialized and know of specific themes within a company such big as ours. Maybe it's not priorities we have the ones, but we reach out those startups so that they can support us bring efficiency in [ solve recurring ] pains, it could be like cost-related problems like revenue processes, anything. Cogna Lab team has been working a lot more on this connection, but we also act in new businesses through a concept that many of you already heard about it, which is a corporate venture builder, which is a little bit of what we've been doing here, like the EJA framework, the tech as well. But here, we focus more on the start-up concept. We build through an organized process. We define a team which is going to explore a thesis and check whether it works or not. So I'm going to talk a little bit about that. So we act on this 2 front. So the first one, so here, this is just to illustrate to you what we've been doing over this last 2 -- 6 months, sorry. So we've been -- we brought like 96 start-ups, and we selected 29 solutions. We went deep into those. So they presented solutions and pitches, and we tested on 9 of these startups, and we tested a specific solution within this revenue improvement, process enhancement. And this is an initiative of open innovation. And now we want to even like double these tests for the next year, and this is going to feed efficiency gains because in such a big company, we have improvements, and it's going to help entrepreneurs who want to take their startups like off the ground. And I believe that because of motivation, this can really work. So this was how Cogna Lab could help. But speaking of new businesses, I think that many of you already know this timeline of project development and of a startup as all, they all start with an idea that need to be discovered to see if it makes sense. And they do a venture design to see if it works, they test, they run tests to see if that solution has a buyer or not, if it solves a [indiscernible], they find an MVP, and they start to grow until they are able to be in the scale phase. Regardless of the fact, there's like BRL 80 million in the B2G, so there's still in growth. The Cogna Labs has a structural process. We've been doing this for about 2.5 years. So by reading a book, so we are on the third version. We learned, we changed a little bit. We already have a third one that -- for a culture with our resources, how we can build these startups at home. So the idea is that we are able to have a, first, discovery phase with a trending research team, we're going to carry out service and research to see if that works. The team -- we're not going to spend a lot with this team. So in about 60 days, we can identify whether this idea can go to the next stage. We work on different prototypes. There's a structure funnel. So we do a back to front exercise and ask ourselves, so how many thesis we would like to test. We did the math from back to front, and we found out that we need to test around between 20 to 30 ideas so that we can have 1 that reaches the growth stage in over 2 or 3 years. This is -- forget the core. We're going to deliver results. So how are we going to get to 2027, 2030? So this is a timeline we consider. We try to reduce costs. And now it's not that we read a book and put it up here on a PowerPoint. We brought you examples of 2 initiatives that internally we call those thesis and how they are doing. This is the E.CO, the corporative education. So if you're interested, you can learn more about it on LinkedIn, and you're going to see that there's a series and array of initiatives that they do on LinkedIn because that's the -- that's where their target audience is, because they sell solutions for executives for the corporate business, so that they deliver a solution, not on a training solution, but a complete solution, thorough solution for their human resources. So you're an industrial company and big part of your industrial workers didn't finish high school. Well, I have this product for you, we have the EJA framework. So you have the executive staff. They want to learn about financial mathematics and product development. We have over 300 courses being offered with the assets within the company, I'm able to build a solution, a human resources solution that offer basic courses to more advanced courses because the thesis here is, how can we create a start-up. We have a head, a person in charge, who works on an MLS with an online learning environment. You see pictures representing like real courses here. They visit companies. They understand their pain, and they customize a solution so that this company is able to improve their development of their professionals. Obviously, the human resources team has indicators of engagement growth, learning level because they need to know that there's many, many strategies that we were able to use to identify those pains. We have already a few clients, but we are -- we just scratch the service. So MVP, well, I have a product. It looks like we are touching on some pains. It's not like we have 50 or 60 clients yet, but we have it all to build on a very effective business and not a niche one. So this is the first one. The second that I'm touching upon here when it comes to growth because we are past MVP phase, I signed that very briefly in some events. This is Voomp. Whenever we think about education, it's hard for somebody to think, oh, I wonder how would education be like in 5 years? artificial intelligence is in place? How would that be working?" But we know that education is leaving the organizations, meaning the schools, universities and colleges. And is being democratized, like, meaning everybody that knows something deeply finds a channel to share this knowledge or expertise through products, and you can do that via Internet before you would be a teacher that had some kind of knowledge. The only way for you to make money out of this knowledge was to sell your time to a school or a university, because these facilities would be the channels of distribution. Nowadays things are different. We have these channels. And greater economy is a very strong asset. We know that the Brazilian market is rather limited. But here, we have a market that moves around $250 million. And it can grow, there's a growth rate. And we knew that already that this market was growing almost 50% per year, especially after the pandemic. So in the world, we have over 300 million creators. In Brazil, we have 20 million with a very strong annual rate, 171. What is interesting is that 79% of Brazilian consumed content from intra producers. Here, we have some data from [indiscernible] and 25 million people in Brazil. So it's almost half of the population and these people have already purchased a product from different segments. And I'm talking about many things, geolocalization, something regarding the legal area, digital marketing, I mean, many people producing content and products and selling them online. We have 2 players that are widely known. One of them is Hotmart. Another one is called [ Reduce ]. So we are embarking on the segment and not with an entrepreneur and our financial approach, maybe something that Hotmart does is very interesting, but they are focusing more on financial value through discounts. So the student goes there, purchase a product and pays in 12 installments. But then for producer gets that money on -- at once with the discount. Our approach is much more -- because I think it's our strength, but I think it's much closer to education itself. So with us, you can do an extension course, a graduate course using a partnership, you can use our physical spaces. This is very nice. We are trying many things. But just to give an example, we have [ intraproducer ] that it's a client. She has -- she's a dentist. So she has courses that teach people how to do dental aesthetics, but they are synchronous courses. And then we suggested why don't you show -- why don't you do like a road show? So her course, depending on the amount of followers that she has. We know that it has a lot of demand, a high ticket, but she couldn't make it viable, because it was hard for her to make it happen. How are you going to go share a course like that in a hotel, because you need the equipment, you need to have that specific dentist chair. And just to give another example in Campo Grande, we have almost 100 of this equipment in our labs. So this is a product that we've been working with, which is a road show in our units, providing face-to-face courses where we provided differential, which is very important in that sense. So our product, how would we explain it, right? So it's a platform that's very similar to Hotmart. So the producer can produce the content, upload it, we can enable an e-commerce. We can do a check out. We provide that service like with credit card or pick payment methods. And if these client or customer decides to pay installments, we can also provide this resource to that person. So this is a new product, but we already have like invoicing and it's leaving MVP and accessing growth, but with the growth curves that we have been seeing, we believe that GMV can be times 10 next year. I mean, of course, many of that is hypothetical, but it just goes -- it just shows that it has a lot of potential. So still, this is rather a disruptive kind of distance, but it's a platform talking to the for producer, but it's a little bit more informal. It doesn't belong to the academic scenario. But still, there's lots of room of opportunities. So these are 2 examples that I wanted to show you. So while we go about the other meetings, I'll show you more examples. But just something here regarding artificial intelligence, briefly, again, I don't want to go into details but maybe you guys were wondering what are you doing when it comes to AI? So the first thing that I'd like to say is that in every company, we have like a project manager, every time we allocate somebody to focus on that specific thing. So we see AI as something very important and I am the manager of AI projects. So weekly, I meet with small work groups, and we are discussing many things, discussing the different projects, how we are going to approach different things in a very simple way. Our approach is trying to build capacities with AI. And these capacities are going to be available for business units for them to apply that in their projects. So an example, a digital service or a customer service that is digital, where you don't need the human potential human capacity. So eventually, a student that wants to go over clarify any questions about academical matters. So they can just go there, ask this question. The AI takes a look into the database, try to look for that specific response and provides the student with that response. So we know that this takes up a lot of cloud potential, but we prepared that product. We have a team focused on that. You can prepare that database. You can customize your product, you can also try to think about when is the best moment for you to go about this digitalization. So that's the concept. So we segment that in 3 pillars. We have this internal AI project. We can also build that as a internal project or we can work on that via a startup. Some of those that I showed you before, they belong to that part. One example that I brought here, it's called Jarvis. So it's a digital tutor. So it doesn't really correct the projects digitally, but it does a preparation. So the student submits his or her project. Jarvis does the correction, the grammatical correction, talk also looks into something, some aspects of cohesion and coherence. And this artificial intelligence can also provide some feedback without having to spend many hours doing that. Another one that we are working on right now has to do with the recognition of materials. So we have birth certificate. Each one looks differently. So we've developed the platform that can read documents, any kind of documents like contracts or any other thing. And the productivity win is amazing. It doesn't eliminate the function of the operator, but it does up to 4 or 6x faster. Of course, just to wrap up, we have a team that is focused solely on education. When it comes to that, we have adaptive learning as a basis. Each one of us has a different background connected to education to develop a specific solution to a specific project. So maybe these next steps can be different depending on who is in charge of it. So what we are trying to seek when it comes to artificial intelligence is try to build a same mine map to a specific problem. So it means that this is not a problem of misunderstanding, because sometimes we lack some kind of knowledge and the artificial intelligence can provide us with faster responses. So it just provides these students with faster and more agile opportunity. So we can make use of artificial intelligence to improve our processes. And we have already been doing that. Some of our partners already use adaptive learnings as a part of their solution. And I believe we are getting to the end of it. Now talking a little bit about our company. You can see that it's very different from what we were in 2018. Sometimes when I take part in these bank meetings, people ask me about our average ticket. Nowadays, Kroton, it represents 60% of our business. Vasta, 16% and keeps growing. We have amazing rates. And we have said there that sometimes people don't even ask about them, but sometimes they have a [ PLND ] of almost $3 billion. So I'd just like to highlight that because I am in charge of many of these research, but Cogna is one of the more thorough companies in terms of diversity. When it comes to channels, right, this is the first topic that I would like to point out. We do B2B. And now we are started selling that on app. So we do B2C, because we sell directly to the students. We do B2G through Saber, and now we are focusing even more on that. We act on different segments, because we do kindergarten, we do graduate and undergraduated. We do lifelong learning whenever we build these partnerships with A.C. Camargo and marketing agencies or advertising agencies, so we do that. We provide many types of services or products. So we focus on courses. We do publishing. We have publishing seals or stamps. We have at least 2 platforms here. Mélega mentioned another one. We have different profiles, we do regulators and unregulated courses. We also work in different scenarios, preschool, youth and adults, so we have different audiences. So not thinking about next semester or next quarter, but thinking about the company and its potential, we believe that this company can become an organization that can deliver a thorough and complete education journey. And who knows, one day, we can focus on this -- accessing the job market and improving income. But we know that the study is always present. So that's the question that we ask. I wonder, can we be an integrated company with high use of data, high technological resources, because we have people that start at a very young age. And eventually, we want parents that want these kids to study abroad. Can we help the school, help the families to try to identify the best courses, the best ways or paths for them to make use of this potential. And again, for this kids eventually become a data scientists in California in the Silicon Valley, who knows, eventually, one day, we can try to organize all that. I give an example of a kid, but eventually, I could be talking about an adult that doesn't know, which undergraduate course he or she is going to enroll. And eventually, we can provide something that can just provide more clarity for this person to make those decisions. This information is out there. However, it's not organized, it's not mapped out. I wonder, can we focus on that as well? So we challenged ourselves, thinking again for next semester next year. But maybe in 10 years' time, can't we built this company that can help people from the age of 2 to 100? This is our long-term view that we would like to share with you all as well. [Presentation]
Unknown Executive
executiveWell, thank you. We have just seen this video, and it's very cool, because it's something that we did in those last months. All these images were captured in our units. There's nothing from data bank, everything is in-house. So it makes me feel very proud to see our students and it's a very touching video for us. We are going to open our Q&A session.
Unknown Attendee
attendee[Operator Instructions] For us to get started, I'm going to ask Fred, [ Melega ] and Roberto to the stage so we can start our Q&A session. Wonderful. So let's begin with Leandro. Do we have a mic? Okay. Would you like to start? Yes, we're just having some logistics issues with microphone, but I think you can kick off.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Well, I have 2 questions regarding the perspectives. Let's begin with academic education. We see that 2023 was very favorable. We've had good levels of capture. What do you see for the industry this year? I mean are they sustainable? Are these drivers sustainable? Or do you think that this was a wave in 2023 and 2024? It has a lot to do with share value in this market instead of the evolution of the industry. And the second one, it has to do with the education systems. I think that the graph that you showed about market share was very good. It showed the possibility of growth. So I would ask 2 things. How have you been monitoring this market share? And if you also monitor the white space, meaning schools that do not have an education system? And the last one has to do with B2G, we know that the market is bigger, larger. But wouldn't we have a possibility for this National Textbook Program become a bid through the educational system through the acquisition of books?
Unknown Executive
executiveOkay. I'll start with educational systems. So first of all, how we monitor all that because I think this is also a competitive advantage from us. Our commercial part here, there is a specific time of the year, like September, we have an incentive of our commercial. And we cover around 90% of the market, the private one. We are not talking about the day cares or the smaller schools. So we have an incentive for our commercial to add this list of books that will be adopted. So the -- we have a team that compile these data. So we monitor not only the education system, but for how long this education system has been around there. So it generates something from our commercial. So we've been in 3 years in that specific school. So most likely, we'll start with renovation. So that's kind of like how we monitor the market share of the system -- education system as well as the publishing houses because for those who are not using these text books, they are purchasing something, because it takes a while for the publishing to come up with these decisions. So we monitor market share. We also monitor this white space. So besides that 25% of the market share, we also have around 10% of the market when it comes to revenue that it's outside that scope, outside that graph that is moving towards publishing houses. But this migration has -- we have seen a reduction. It's -- we have reached the plateau. So I believe that this is connected to education system. You also asked questions about B2G, [ PLND ]. Well, the PNLD, we've been over 30 years using that in that kind of purchasing. It's very democratic for the teacher in the private sector. I don't see any reason why there would have a migration taking into account the current system, a city can always add a new education system and stop using PNLD. So I don't see that shift. I think that they will continue for many years to come, which is great news. And I also see that there are some players, some networks, they can migrate to something more structured because they will have more budget for that. And we will be ready to serve them either way, at least speaking on behalf of Cogna.
Unknown Executive
executiveWell, I agree with him, and there's a minimum chance for migration the movements to the Secretary of Education of Sao Paulo did was to stop using PNLD and implement educational framework system that was not third party. You probably saw all the buzz, because books they have like great strength. It's a great advantage. Students like them teachers like them. It's a very organized program. I see minimal chances for such change. But maybe one municipality or another would like to do it, but it's not really relevant for the PNLD context. As far as undergraduate courses are concerned, I think that the market is really competitive. I think that the big players in this market have like greater relevance and strength. We see that the regional markets have been gaining forces. So it's a very competitive market. It's a market that became more intelligent, smarter. So we've been using like this rationality word. So we've been like acting more in a rational way if we compare it to before. So we started to advertise the -- not only the volume, but the revenue coming from the intake. So I think that your revenue was really good. I think there's greater rationality. We see more pondered offers. We're talking about a very competitive market. I don't see the 2023 year as a promising special year that we enrolled more. I think that the market needs to re data clearly because there are players who are growing more because they had a 2022 -- they didn't have so much intake. So their numbers seem higher. But if you look at our numbers, I'm not going to speak of competitors. But our numbers are really consistent when it comes to certain intake. The average growth between those years is around 15%, between 8% and 11%, but the average is 15%. I don't see a buyer market. I see the same market, a segment that grows at 2%, I think this wave is still to come. I think this is positive, but we haven't reached the stage edge, but I don't see any deterioration, deterioration for next year. So we are only past the first month of this last quarter, but we've been following the same rhythm as before.
Leandro Bastos
analystI'm Leandro from Citi. I actually have 2 questions. The first one regards the leading guidance and how much do you think that the receivables should be considered? And the second one about regulation, we have seen lots of news on the distance education, like a public consultancy. So if you could share about those regulatory impacts? If you could share about that?
Unknown Executive
executiveAbout the guidance that we shared of BRL 1 billion for operational cash flow, the [ PAPI ] receivable is normal. We don't have any spikes. It's not the [ PAPI ] receivables that impact this amount. I don't have the exact numbers, but that's not the thing that potentializes at all. The numbers come from the performance, especially from the improvement of the fact that people are paying our products. So we do not advertise the lack of default, but -- well, we have [ SPDG ] on net revenue, the growth of revenue and the [ PPG ] of lack of default. I think the [ PAPI ] was discontinued. So the tendency now is that its base decreases. So when we look ahead, this is going to be less relevant in our cash flow. What was the other question, the Distance Learning. All right. So when it comes to Distance Learning, I would say that it's really worrying the way that the theme is being debated right now, because it generates uncertainty in the segment. We don't have any question that Distance Learning is effective. When we look at numbers. If you look at numbers, you see some -- if you have passion for a certain view, you see that the difference is minimal, Distance Learning with a specific theme. We have the dropout numbers like really, really low. So the -- they have great impact for society. I don't know if you heard the numbers before, but I think that Brazil has many fewer than 600 cities have access to the portfolio that we are offering here. So we would have 5,000 cities where -- which do not have access to such indication. But at least 2,000 cities would lose such offers. This is not good for the population. It's not good for the mayor, for the community. How are you going to look for financing from the federal government for a hospital if you're not able to hire a nurse, a physiotherapist, because those cities, people don't have access to education. For us, it's something that we've already been past that, but what I believe the group work and public consulting. I think we should look for regulation that brings improvements of quality. So let's try to assume that the distance needs to have a specific horse load, maybe higher than on side courses. Maybe the online courses need to have access to labs on-premise. I'd like to remind everyone that all our practices are on-site practices. I already mentioned before in different sessions. Our units, they built their labs and they sell cameras within. And we surveilled the activity that is being performed then. This is a prerequisite. Well, the regulations say, "Oh, it can be online." But no, let's try to raise the bar and do a hybrid model. This is just to give you an example. I think these things take over a greater dimension on social media, but I think the duration we have to follow on is quality. I'm sure that the government is going to be sensitive to that when this decision is taking. Well, that's my view. Now we're going to hear a question from Jessica.
Jessica Mehler
analystI'd like to explore the capita little bit more because it showed nominal evolution up to 2026. This suggests very low evolution of revenue. And what's the sustainability of it like throughout time in your opinion?
Unknown Executive
executiveAs I mentioned before, back to '21, '22 and '23, well, we are actually ending a technological investment cycle, the recurring CapEx for the unit has been reducing. We reduced the number of physical units. Our growing vector is really focused on Distance Learning. We don't have the physical units anymore. We sold the schools between '20 and '21. So we want to capture royalties, and we want to sell textbooks. When I look ahead, I'm speaking of a CapEx of '22, '23 and '24 of BRL 400 million. That's why I'm not growing because I'm reducing investments, and I'm a company that talk to strategies and [ SOIs ]. And that's why I'm going to have a natural reduction of CapEx regarding revenue.
Frederico da Cunha Villa
executiveJust to illustrate a little bit what he said, the productivity tools such as artificial intelligence for codes, and we're gaining 30% productivity. So a developer that becomes technology CapEx. So we are able to keep CapEx producing the same quantity because we use the gate hub, for instance. This is just an example.
Unknown Executive
executiveAnd like Fred has said, the profile of our investors is really different. So we're investing less in infrastructure, and we're investing more in technology. The technology itself accelerates productivity and well, it's not Vasta or Somos cases, because they produce editorials. It's not really CapEx, but the cost of the project itself. But in the case of Kroton that we produce the contents. So nowadays, we are being able to use artificial intelligence to produce content at a lower cost. So we have less editorial CapEx being used, which is not the case of Vasta and Somos. Well, I just wanted to mention these examples. As you mentioned, those '20 to '21, we were able to implement to install the RPI from '21 to '22 and '23. We are ending the academic RT, and that's a very transformational phase. So this investment is not recurring anymore. And the investments in technology are turned to revenue generation, just like Roberto mentioned before.
Unknown Analyst
analystIt's more of comfort. What is the availability of the company to -- for purchasing a focus on higher education? And even like in medical school, when you did the carve-out of the KrotonMed, you're thinking of using such separation, so you would be able to have like better negotiations for M&A?
Unknown Executive
executiveWhen we see the number of positions, which are going to be made available out there, speaking of the new story that we had, which was more sensationalized. So is it part of the mindset to grow in such segments through purchasing. So I'm going to start and then you add First, strategically speaking, our mindset is more strategic control and transforming and cheap M&As, not transforming in -- when talking about dimensions, we're going to acquire something that is going to boost. So we're going to open a space. I think this is the more strategic view. I think medical school is still part of our strategy. It's one of our pillars like hybrid I believe that the future of medical school is clearly split into 2 segments, the ones which have really -- the ones that are trashed students, they have good reputation and the ones, which are in the countryside, they don't have such a good reputation, they're going to suffer more. This is important because we are open to do M&A, focus on medical school by looking at it as opportunities. And by taking into consideration the pricing. And I'm going to add like Kroton, and we are going to be able to increase price, reduce cost. So it's difficult to acquire a mature asset. So we're not going to simply exchange cash for EBITDA. If we have a financial partner that joins in, it's really going to help. But I think that the market lives an experience, and they're still waiting what the court decision is going to be. We have an entrepreneur that once you sell like medical school, undergraduate courses. But we decided to put that on hold. We have an M&A team that is really keeping an eye on that, but we are not going to pay price for what does not make sense. I think I said that's the bit that you focus of reduction. But the game is here is capital rental allocation. The tax is really high. Interest rate is really high. And I think this is the view.
Unknown Executive
executiveSam Alves question.
Samuel Alves
analystThis is Sam Alves from BTG, Pactual BTG. I have 2 questions here. The first one is about guidance. The company updated the guidance, which was published back in 2021, and there was a low reduction in EBITDA and the range and upkeeping of the operational cash. What is the reason for such discrepancy even with the expected EBITDA? Can you still keep such an operation the way it is? If it is a last robust CapEx or maybe an agenda with when we look at the guidance in 2021? And the second one in the plan of CapEx last robust, you showed in the presentation reduction of net debt. The company expects to become pay of dividends. We have a discussion of policies for that.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you so much. Some of -- for the question It's a long one. But what I would like to open here is it's the same game that I told you before, the best allocation of capital. When I look back on 2020, down to '23 and '24, well, that's the metric. We had PPD each in 180 days, they talk to the cash. If I look what I have a PDD, what I have now and before and how I've been improving our PDD. So I improve my cash. So I don't talk about PDD, because PDD is an accountancy criteria. So the first factor is I have more cash. And this is a fact that happened since 2021. So I'll after 2023. So this is the first tier. The second one is operational efficiency. So if we see in our releases, well, the corporate expenses, market efficiency, I have a better efficiency. And this is translating our operational cash. Regardless the comment, we have a very low range, much lower than the 200 -- 2,400. The second one was about the dividend policies. The company is generating net profit adjusted, but not accountable. But our expectation, considering the interest rate reduction is that we're going to generate a different kind of profit. But the discussion is what is the best allocation of and to pay the -- well, I'm going to pay the minimum dividends or today, we haven't discussed yet. This is the boardings issue. We would need to discuss about the capital allocation.
Unknown Executive
executiveI would like to add something here, because we would like to educate you a little bit more on the topic. When we say that Saber is gaining a market share in a program where you have like 0 default. So I have a bigger proportion. So the student of Rotten is a better payer compared to last year. And the other businesses have a greater proportion of cash flow.
Unknown Executive
executiveI'm going to pass the floor to the last question.
Unknown Analyst
analystI have 2 fast questions. The first one about the guidance. I would like to understand about the number that we showed. How much there is like how much of those businesses are there like within those numbers? What do you understand as the main risks of maybe you're not going to reach the 2,400, maybe you're going to get closer to 2,800? The second one is about competition and ticket. We saw especially last year, behavior of -- pricing behavior by all the industry, like a little bit more rationale with the less aggressive discounts and everybody was able to work in prices in a more homogenous way. So do you see the -- and or seeing maintaining such behavior or in order to increase and grow, so you need to rely back on more aggressive discounts?
Unknown Executive
executiveSo the guidance question. So what are the new things that compose the guidance? I'm going to talk about the new ones, especially the Kroton. Kroton, when we look at the avenues, those are still narrow in terms of finances. But in terms of revenue, they represent just BRL 100,000. It's not relevant just yet. But when we look on Somos, we have the B2G, the Melega brought those elements here, I think you could maybe add to this answer. We do not believe that this year, we gained BRL 82 million. That's our revenue. So Melega brought the element up to 2030, but we believe that we are going to be growing by 2024 without mentioning the organic growth, so we don't have an element to look back, both in Kroton and Vasta that show us deacceleration both in student intake. Just like Vasta, we do not offer a specific EBITDA guidance. We do an [ ECV 1 ] offer an [ ECV ] guidance. And we have a 3-year history. We just delivered [ BRL 333 million ]. So -- and I would expect this CAGR down the line. We have a B2G that is one of the reasons why we have such a good range in the guidance of Cogna, because we do not know how it's going to work in the short run. I think we feel safer when we talk about the long run, because we have no idea of how big the B2G is going to be. From a practical point of view, [indiscernible] these are not within our guidance, but B2G start on -- it's not here. So it does not contribute in a relevant way. I believe that among all this business, all the B2G as part of it. And when it comes to competition, I think the great players are trying to increase our revenue. I think we try to -- we're going through a more balanced moment when it comes to finances. If a player takes an aggressive decision, other competitors are going to do that as well. This is going to happen? Yes, but I don't believe it will.
Unknown Executive
executiveWell, Fred, Roberto, Melega, thank you so much. I think it was a great Q&A session. I would like to thank you for your participation. And now we are going to go down to the last meeting, we're going to end the Q&A session. And now I'm going to come to stage the President of the of the case of the Board, Rodrigo.
Rodrigo Galindo
executiveGood afternoon, everybody. First of all, I'd like to thank everybody who is here with us for those who are watching this presentation at home. It was a very intense morning. Thank you so much for being here. I'm going to be talking for about like 5 to 10 minutes. It's just to go about a wrap-up of everything that we talked about today. And just to show how aligned and articulated the company is and how we will deliver the future that we expect to deliver. So again, it was a very intense big challenge. And I'm talking this because I was part of the executive team that was here on this stage in 2020 to present this guidance. And when we presented that, we were foreseeing BRL 1 billion in terms of EBITDA in 2020. It was one of the worst year, we delivered BRL 690 millions, which made everything more challenging, and it was hard for us to believe that we would be able to deliver this guidance. And here, we have this range between BRL 2,100 million, BRL 2,400 million, because the company decided to sell an asset and acquire another one that was generate more cash rather than EBITDA. So this is more connected to a strategical decision from the company of prioritizing the cash instead of something else. So it's very good to be here and validate this range between BRL 2,100 million and BRL 2,400 million. And so when we were here, we only had BRL 230 million and deliver an average -- weighted average of 43% per year is just a reason for us to feel very proud. I'd like to thank everyone here. And on behalf of Roberto Valerio, who is the CEO and Fred and the CFO of the company, I'd like to thank the leadership team and all the other collaborators of Cogna because it was a very complex trajectory, and we only -- we're only able to meet these results because of 2 things. We had a very clear strategy that was defined collectively by those team of executives and a focus on the deliverables. I would like to congratulate on behalf of Roberto Valerio, our CEO, in parallel to a clear strategy and focus on deliverables, we also focused on an ambidextrous company and strong culture. What we were able to see in this last 3, 4 years, since 2020 was consistency and alignment among everybody among the CEOs and executive teams, among the Board, administrative board and the executives, Roberto and his team, his team and the leaders and people, who are on the field, I thought that we had alignment to deliver a very clear strategy. This is what I would like to reinforce. And that's the reason why I'm saying that the future is promising. So if we think that in one slide everything that was necessary for us to be where we are today in Kroton, the movement was relevant from 176 to 112 units from 1,528 to 3,000 poles, 15% of CAGR dropout reduction. We also had improvement in students NPS, 95% of concepts 4 to 5 by MAC, 30 points margin increase between 2020 and 2023, with much more cash conversion. At Vasta, we had an ACV at a 20% CAGR with margin rising 22.5% to 26.5%, share growth in core content and mainly increased penetration in complementary into new and relevant avenues of growth. B2G and Anglo Start. At Saber, market share growth from 26.2% to 33.5% from '19 to 2023. In Cogna, robust cash generation leverage at a very healthy level of 1.88x, controlled CapEx and perspective in terms of growth in cash generation. So this was a very thorough work that was done and makes us believe that 2024 will be a more comfortable year because of the commitment that we had before. And we are going to deliver what we want and build the future because we have an ambidextrous company, strong culture. Cogna Labs creating opportunities, open growth, strong culture Cogna's way lived on a daily basis. And we have an implemented partner culture, more than 60 partners that are part of this company. And I'd like to wrap up reinforcing some of the guidances. These are some of the key takeaways. I'm not going to cite everything else again, but just like to reinforce the commitment that we have and say that this strategy is very clear and it's updated every time taking into account all the governance aspects of the company. We are very comfortable with the executive team that is in charge of all that. We are focusing on the deliverables. But at the same time, we are trying to think of what's the company that we want for the future. Maybe the strongest message that we have is guidance is important. But 2024 only shows that we delivered what we wanted. We're implementing seeds that going to create a different company, compared to what we had 10 years ago. A company that wants to reestablish for long-term changes, embraces changes. So this is what I would like to tell you. We have the future -- this outlook to the future with all the initiatives of artificial intelligence, digitalization, in terms of coming up with new solutions, new businesses that are being created and implemented with the technology of Cogna Labs consistency and alignment. And last but not least, I would like to say that what brought us here is exactly what is going to keep generating value for the future. I'd like to thank everybody. Roberto, thank you for the hard work and all the 23,000 collaborators and leaderships. And thank you, everybody, from the market, who is here watching us. Thank you for your availability, your time. Hopefully, we were able to clarify some questions that you might have and tell you that we will be here trying to boost our best versions. Thank you so much. Have a wonderful afternoon. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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