Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 9, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Information Technology Software conference_presentation 26 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#1

All right. Good afternoon, everyone. Let's go ahead and get started. My name is Rishi Jaluria. I cover software here at D.A. Davidson. I'm delighted to have with me from Guidewire, our CFO, Jeff Cooper; and the brand-new VP of Investor Relations, Alex Hughes. Any investors that would like to ask questions to Jeff and Alex, please submit it through the chat function, I'm going to continue to monitor that, or feel free to e-mail me directly at rjaluria@dadco.com, that's rjaluria@dadco.com. So with that, Jeff and Alex, thank you so much for joining us today.

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#2

Yes, happy to be here.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#3

All right. Let's maybe just start with an overview of Guidewire for all the generalists in the room, and I think we can start talking through the cloud transition and COVID and all that fun stuff.

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#4

Sure, sure. So Guidewire is a vertically focused enterprise software company. Since our founding in 2001, we have served exclusively one industry, that would be the global property and casualty insurance industry, which is a roughly $2 trillion industry that sells a wide variety of products that are indispensable for indemnifying people and businesses against all sorts of risks. We sell a suite of core systems that manage an insurer's policies, claims process, underwriting process and billings. We also sell systems of engagement and systems of intelligence, which we refer to as our digital and data products that surround our core systems. We've always monetized our software in a recurring revenue model, primarily selling term licenses and are now starting to migrate our customers in this industry to the cloud by selling subscriptions to our cloud-delivered products. Our core systems touch about $500 billion in direct written premiums in our customer base in some way, shape or form. And we have customers in over 30 countries globally. So that's a quick overview of who Guidewire is and what we do.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#5

Sounds great. All right. Let's kind of jump into what's top of mind for investors, which is of course COVID, right? But how do we think about the headwinds and tailwinds that you're seeing in this environment? And maybe given that you're in a cloud transition, you can talk a little bit more about that in detail as well. But has the pandemic maybe impacted your ability to migrate on-premise customers to cloud? Has it accelerated it? What's the right way to think about that?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#6

Yes. Yes, so we just ended our fiscal year at the end of July. And so our fiscal third quarter encompasses March and April, and those were impacted months, I would say, from a COVID perspective. We sell large strategic IT projects for an insurer who may be looking to modernize a system that may have been in place for, in some cases, 30 or 40 years, and make a shift to a more modern core system framework. Those are large 18- to 24-month implementation projects. And we did see a pretty significant slowdown in initiation of new projects like that in Q3. I think insurers were distracted a bit with kind of what is going on here and now on the ground, more urgent needs that were timely as a result of COVID with respect to IT investments in Q3. We were very pleased in Q4 to see what felt like a return to normalcy and insurers wanting to get back to work and starting to reengage on some of these strategic initiatives. So we're very pleased to see that. Long term, COVID is pretty interesting. We're selling modernization that should help insurers react to situations and make them more agile. And in many cases, their legacy systems are holding them back from being able to kind of meet the moment, and COVID was a real moment for people. And I think folks that had previously modernized their core systems with Guidewire's suite, we're very pleased that they had a modern system in place. And I do think that there are reasons why this could help further the urgency around modernizing our core system. It's just those are long decisions. So that will take quarters and years to play out. That's not kind of something we would see manifest itself in our pipeline right away, coming out of the environment. But we do think it just increases the overall sense of urgency around. If you have problems in your IT stack that are making you unable to meet some of the demands or needs that are going on, on the ground, then that's a problem for insurers. So we'll see. We're optimistic that over the longer term, this will further drive the incentive to shift to more agile systems such as our cloud-based products.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#7

Yes. That's a great start. So let's go turn to the cloud transition. I guess: a, why the decision to go down a cloud transition, given you were at least on a -- forget putting aside a 605 already on kind of a recurring payment arrangement. And for us on the outside, what's really just the best way for us to gauge the underlying success of that cloud transition, knowing things will somewhat normalize in a few years?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#8

Yes. Yes. I think our view is, over time, our ability to service and meet the needs of our customers is -- will be best delivered via the cloud and via cloud-delivered products. And so -- and it's always a hard -- I think that we had been wrestling with that for not an insignificant amount of time. And then we had to be thoughtful and strategic about what is the right time for us to go after that. And once you make that decision, you kind of need to go all in, right? So the phrase that I heard -- I get it here and used a lot is burning the boats, but we have to -- you have to kind of make that strategic commitment to the shift. And our -- where we reside in the market and the customers we serve, which are some of the largest insurers in the world with somewhat complex core system frameworks, it's a unique challenge, right? So we feel really good about kind of when we decided to meet that moment and start meaningfully move our emphasis to the cloud, and we think it's the right time for us to do that. Anytime you do that, it creates some ripples and some challenges in terms of what the installed base thinks and how they react to that decision, what new customer prospects, how they react to that decision. There may have been insurers that were contemplating a modernization on-premise. But now they kind of just hear us talk about the focus of our investment are on our cloud products and what does that mean for them. And so we're working through that with our customer base and with our prospects on a very -- kind of one-by-one basis. We have a large group of folks working at Guidewire that are doing cloud readiness assessments with our customer base to help them understand kind of the blocking and tackling that needs to take place in order to go to the cloud. But we feel strongly that over the longer term, in order to kind of maintain and extend our leadership position, we needed to reinvent ourselves in the cloud and so we're in the early stages of doing that.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#9

All right. On kind of going down the cloud path, you recently came out with the first cloud-native version with Aspen and there's a bunch of others skiing mountain-related news coming out after this. But maybe talk a little bit about what does it bring that's more than just InsuranceSuite that you're hosting for customers? And just how do we think about the size -- the opportunity set that maybe this unlocks?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#10

Yes. So one of the things that is really exciting about Aspen and one of the challenges that our customers struggle with is maintaining and supporting these core systems is a burden on our customer base, right? And so we want to unburden them of needing to maintain and support these systems. And in an on-premise modality, we would release a major release every 2 years. And the complexity associated with taking that release was such that our customers would typically skip a major release or 2. So they would gain access to the efforts of our R&D team every 4 to 6 years. And just the overall kind of challenges associated with that model was one -- was a pain point that our customers have. And so Aspen is, first, an important step that makes it visible and transparent and helps our customers understand what the cloud world will look like. And that's a world where we will own the infrastructure on behalf of our customers. We will own running it and updating it behind the scenes in a seamless fashion with minimal disruption. And we will start doing that on a 6-month release cadence, so that customers gain very rapid access to our innovation efforts. So that's what gets me excited about Aspen is some of the early cloud customers were really critical in our ability to start blazing this trail and understanding kind of what this transition will look like. And now with Aspen, I think, that there is a much broader visibility into kind of how we will actually architect and implement this promise of getting our customers on a 6-month release cadence where everybody is on the same version of our software, which is really exciting.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#11

Yes. I've already got 2 investor questions, I'm going to turn to those. The first being, how should we be thinking about the competitive environment? And how should we be thinking about you versus Duck Creek, which just went public?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#12

Yes, yes, sure. So we operate in a very competitive market. I think that there are some attractive elements of the particular market that we serve, where it is pretty difficult to penetrate. So we don't have -- my prior company was a data and analytics company. There tend to be a lot more competitors there. But we have a handful of real competitors. Duck Creek has been a competitor of ours that we've seen quite actively in North America for 10 years, and continue to see them in addition to others. And then as you think broadly as you go overseas, there tends to be in each geography, oftentimes, there is a particular vendor that has specific country and regulatory know-how that makes them competitive in a specific geography. And we haven't seen any shift in the competitive landscape too dramatically. We do recognize that some of our competitors may have started the cloud transition a little bit earlier than we have. We feel really good about the timing of our efforts in shifting the industry to cloud, especially within the customer base and the part of the market that we serve. So yes, we expect it to continue to be an active and competitive market as it has been over the last 10 years.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#13

Got it. And then as we think about the market itself going after P&C insurers, does the kind of rise of these so-called insurtech players like Lemonade and Hippo, is that a headwind? Is that a threat? Or is that -- is there a better way to think about how that impacts you?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#14

Yes. I mean we view that as a helpful backdrop to help instigate core system modernization. One of the key drivers of core system modernization is digital disruption and insurers' recognition that they need to be able to engage and interact with their customers in a much more digitally native modality. And so as we start to see kind of digital-first disruptors come to market, that can -- I think that can be an impetus for some of the industry to move and make sure they're investing in their core systems to be able to address being -- having a more digital stance with their customers. So digital disruption has been a key driver of core system modernization over the last 5 years, and we expect that to continue to be.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#15

Got it. Another investor question I got is, you mentioned insurance now as an area that's made a lot of progress since Mike joined. Can you be a little bit more specific where has the progress been? Has it been on the go-to-market side? Has it been on product? Has it been on a market fit? What drivers can you talk about there?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#16

Yes. It's been broad-based. If you go back and read some of the transcripts from about a year, 1.5 years ago, we talked about putting in place a new leader. He was focused on sorting through some product challenges that needed to be worked through. And that was over a year ago that we were working through that. And then as we entered into FY '20, we talked about changing the go-to-market motion. Prior to FY '20, we had a thesis that our existing sales reps who are out there actively touching the customers could make the decisions on which product to prominently feature. And I think what we found is most of our sales reps were very comfortable selling InsuranceSuite, and so would lead with that. And so we put in place a dedicated InsuranceNow team and that has helped a lot over the last year. So those are a couple of the things that we put in place to help turn that around. And we're excited to have 3 deals closing in Q4 and to continue the momentum we see with our InsuranceNow product.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#17

All right. I want to turn to the topic then that I constantly get questions on which is the subscription gross margin. So not that you've given raw numbers, but if I do back of the envelope, you're at somewhere like 35%. You've guided to where your target is 65% in FY '24. What's the kind of glide path to get from where we are today to that target? And I guess, is there something -- and I know how much you hate this question, but is there something structurally that prevents you from having more kind of typical SaaS gross margins, which will be more in that mid-70s type ratio?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#18

Yes. Yes. There's nothing structural, right? So we fully expect to be able to capture SaaS-like gross margins. And even as we inspect our cloud customers and I have a dashboard that allows me to look at every single one of our cloud customers and kind of what are our expected margin profile for that particular customer, even without kind of architecting major savings as we ramp those customers on a cash gross margin basis, they should continue to get materially better as those contracts ramp. The near term is one that we are investing heavily in our cloud operations function to make sure that we are ready to service our customers that we've already sold and the customers that we expect to sell over the next 12 to 18 months, right? So this is a really critical part of this transition and a really critical part of the demand curve with respect to the cloud products. And we want to make sure that we get these initial customers up and running and successful and delighted, so that they will be positive reference points to help us build our cloud products and our cloud momentum in the future. So we recognize that this is just a really important time. So now is maybe not the right time to focus on margin and as we get that referenceability start building and the repeatability and how we manage our cloud customers, we can scale those investments much more aggressively into the future. But we're just really focused on making sure we get these initial customers up and running and successful and that we have the folks there to execute on the demand that we see.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#19

All right. And thinking about migrations, what's kind of the approach to migrating customers over? Is there anything that you're doing incentive wise on either the buy side or sell side, so incentivizing customers or incentivizing your salespeople to help drive that migration?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#20

Yes. So migrations is a really exciting opportunity for us. These are customers we know really well, have serviced successfully in an on-premise manner. And we think kind of that trusted relationship that we have with these customers make them logical to be some of the early adopters of our cloud products, right? So we're excited about that opportunity. And as we think about the pipeline for next year, we do expect it to be quite heavy on migration activity as we move through the year. We did have some incentives in fiscal '20 to help instigate that demand. One of them was on the professional services side. One of the challenges for a customer who wants to migrate is I don't think kind of in this early wave of migrations. The path and the steps that are required from a professional services perspective are perfectly clear, right? There's a lot of -- we're kind of blazing this trail with these early customers. And so we did make some services investments that you would have seen impacting services margins, both last year and expected to kind of roll through into this year as we work with some of these early customers to make sure we get these migrations right. But beyond that, that was really it. From a sales incentive basis, our reps are naturally incented to sell migrations because we incent our reps on an ARR -- a net new ARR-like metric, and there's a significant net new ARR opportunity in selling these migrations. So there was no incremental sales incentives that we applied.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#21

Yes. Yes. So on that, I think you've talked before about a 2x to 3x uplift were migrating on-premise to cloud. What drives that? And is that inclusive of the add-ons that you get from cloud services? Or is that on top of that 2x to 3x uplift?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#22

So the 2 to 3x uplift, the way we think about that is, is what is our total ARR for the similar -- the same products that they had purchased in an on-premise way, and that's kind of taking the recurring term license component plus the maintenance and then what does that look like in terms of a cloud ARR context. And when we sell on-premise software, we are a software vendor. And then the insurer has to then take that software and install it on their servers and build out their IT team to kind of maintain and support it. And there's a lot of professional services work and other things that go into that. And as we move to a cloud vendor, the overall division of labor changes a bit, and we take on more of that post-production responsibility. We take on the upgrades. And part of the vision of the cloud is to be able to do that on a 6-month cadence behind the scenes versus what happens today where an insurer has to kick off a project and manage SIs and help kind of work through an upgrade process every 4 to 6 years, and that's an area of complexity. So there's a variety of different activities that we take on in this cloud context that helps us justify and build an ROI case for kind of why it's a better posture for an insurer to pay for our cloud products, even though there is a 2 to 3x uplift. And then there's also a lot of value drivers just in terms of gaining faster access to innovation, having a more agile product set and a bunch of other things that go into kind of how we think about our cloud opportunity.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#23

All right. If we think about the partner ecosystem, obviously, you have -- we've always had a robust one. It seems like it's probably gaining even more traction now. A, how do you think about just how much of the business partners can drive over time? And B, with the cloud transition, right, you used to -- you had Guidewire cloud customers before that were done through partners where they were handling that. Now you have a fully managed offering, how does that weigh out and what incentivizes partners to still be there and not favor their own implementation over InsuranceSuite cloud or now Aspen?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#24

Yes. So one of the things that Guidewire has done very well throughout its history is its efforts and emphasis on building out this partner ecosystem. And these projects are big, multifaceted and require a lot of work to rip out a legacy mainframe-based system and reinstall it with a modern software system. So partners are critical in our ability to scale, and it's been a very positive relationship that we've had there. So we expect that to continue and even accelerate in the cloud. There's a huge opportunity here to shift this industry to the cloud, and that's going to require a lot of professional services work. And we want to do the tip of the spear and make sure that these projects get implemented appropriately, but we also want to hand off the lion's share of that work to our SI partners. And we think that's going really well. Some of the early -- and early in the cloud migration, we did have a thesis that we would need to be much more active in the implementation processes. And we've walked away from that and really doubled down in helping our partners get certified and get up to speed. And I think that's the right posture to take and to continue to build that good synergy we have with the SI community. You're right that some partners did in a void where we were not bringing our customers to the cloud, some customers did want to go to the cloud a little bit faster than we were ready to take them to the cloud. And so we did have some of our partners build up their own partner clouds to do that on our behalf and kind of manage that for our customers. But we're seeing -- that to us is considered self-managed business because we would sell a self-managed license to a customer and then they would take that to a partner cloud. And we haven't seen a lot of new activity there. I think the partners recognize just the amount of effort required to take this industry to the cloud is a huge opportunity for them, and we're excited to work hand-in-hand on that opportunity together.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#25

I've got another investor question, really busy for that. How much of the business is in the process? Or do you expect to transition to the cloud? And what's kind of the expected time frame for a full transition to the extent that there even is such a thing?

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#26

Yes. So the full transition could come in 2 ways. How long does it take us to transition a customer or how much is it -- how long does it take to transition our customer base, and those are very different questions. We're very early days in transitioning our customer base. And this is an industry that moves at its own pace, and that is reflective of the fact that a significant amount of the market is still on mainframe systems, right? And so that is the open question that we have, and it's a hard one for us to predict. We kind of know where the end state is. If we continue to execute and do our job and continue to delight our customers, we kind of know where we should get to, especially within how we think about our installed base and then continuing to modernize this industry. But how fast does it get there is always the open variable. And that's kind of what is -- could shift us from being a mid-teens to upper teens grower to even getting back into 20% ARR grower is the pace of that migration. So we're trying to be cautious and recognize that this is a cautious industry. And it will move at its own pace, and we're being measured in how we think about the outlook. And as we see inflection points or areas of acceleration, we will call those out to the Street.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#27

I think that's a great place to jump off because we're right out of time. Always appreciate it. Jeff and Alex, thank you so much for joining us.

Jeffrey Cooper

executive
#28

Thank you. Thanks so much for having us.

Rishi Jaluria

analyst
#29

Yes. Take care.

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