Heineken N.V. (HEIA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to today's Heineken N.V. 2022 Full Year Results. My name is Bailey, and I'll be your moderator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to pass the conference over to Federico Castillo, Head of Investor Relations. Federico, please go ahead.

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for today's live webcast of our 2022 full year results. Your host will be Dolf van den Brink, our CEO; and Harold van den Broek, our CFO. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. The presentation includes forward-looking statements and expectations based on management's current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and it is possible that actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I will now turn the call over to Dolf.

Thank you, Federico, and welcome, everyone. We are pleased to be here to share our full year 2022 results. I would like to start with this slide from our capital markets event a couple of months ago. It's a succinct way of visualizing what the EverGreen strategy is all about. Our ambition is to deliver superior balanced growth to consistently create long-term value. And we do this with a clear strategic focus on 5 priorities. The first one is top line growth, our dream to shape the future of beer and beyond to win with the heart of our consumers. As we remain, first and foremost, a superior growth company. The other 4 are digitizing the business to become the best connected brewery; adding productivity as a value-creating engine for the company to both fund the growth and fuel the profit; stepping up in sustainability responsibility at the time the world most needs it; and unlocking the full potential of our people and our network. These priorities propel our growth algorithm, accelerating growth, unlocking productivity gains, reinvesting them to grow faster and ultimately deliver long-term value creation. Harold will speak to how these moving parts played out in '22. And we measure our success with our Green Diamonds. It embodies the balance we aim to attain. We want growth balanced between volume and value. We want growth and productivity and capital efficiency and making sure we deliver on our key commitments and ambitions on sustainability and responsibility. So let's dive into our performance in '22. We delivered a strong set of results in '22 despite the continuously challenging and volatile environment. Our growth was balanced and ahead of the beer category in the majority of our markets. Our top line and profits have fully recovered and are ahead of 2019. We delivered EUR 1.7 billion of gross savings from our productivity program and are well on track to exceed the EUR 2 billion target by '23. We continued the decarbonization of our breweries, and I'm particularly proud that whilst navigating unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty, our employee engagement scores improved further this year ahead of the benchmark of high-performing companies. Let's take a closer look at the key financial highlights. Net revenue (beia) grew 21.2% organically versus last year, benefiting from volume and value growth. Revenue per hectoliter (beia) grew organically by 13.9% driven by pricing for inflation and premiumization. Total volume grew 6.4% organically. The Heineken brand grew 14.5%, excluding Russia, significantly outperforming the market. Operating profit (beia) grew 24.0% and the margin was 15.7%, up 10 basis points versus last year, in line with our guidance. Net profit and EPS grew even faster due to lower interest, one-off gains in net financing expenses and the normalization of the effective tax rate. Let's look at some of these metrics relative to 2019. Today, we have regained this momentum. Our total volume is close to full recovery although impacted by delisting low-margin soft drinks in Brazil and our beer volume is ahead of 2019 by 2.7%. This has been driven by our premium portfolio led by the very strong performance of the Heineken brand that grew 31.5%. Net revenue is ahead of '19 organically by 17.6%. This growth is entirely driven by price mix. Approximately 2/3 of this effect is the inflation led pricing we have implemented over the last 2 years and 1/3 is coming from premiumization and revenue management effects. Operating profit is also ahead of '19 by 11.2% or close to EUR 0.5 billion, supported by the significant savings of our productivity program. Moving on to the performance of the regions and starting with AMEE. Net revenue grew organically by 21.8% and operating profit by over 31.5%, driven by the strong revenue growth and disciplined cost management with most of our operations growing double digits. Beer volumes grew 1.5% organically. Price mix was up 19.7% on a constant geographic basis, driven largely by pricing with inflation and further boosted by premiumization. The premium portfolio performed strongly in Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia, but saw a small decline due to the steep drop of our premium volume in Russia. In Nigeria, our growth was led by assertive pricing to mitigate inflation. We outperformed the market, led by our premium brand Tiger, Desperados and Heineken. In Ethiopia, our volume grew significantly ahead of the market. We are sustaining our #1 position achieved earlier this year, led by our mainstream portfolio with Harar and Walia. In South Africa, our volume recovered ahead of 2019 despite significant supply chain challenges. The growth was very broad-based across our entire portfolio. We remain very excited with the opportunity to bring together Distell, Namibia Breweries and our business in South Africa to create a regional beverage champion. We are committed to being a strong partner for growth and to make a positive impact in the communities we operate in. The hearings by the Competition Tribunal in South Africa concluded 3 weeks ago, and we now await their final decision, which is expected soon. Moving on to the Americas. Net revenue grew organically by 15.2%, mainly driven by Mexico and Brazil. Organic beer volume grew 3.7% and price mix on a constant geographical basis grew by 15.6%, driven mainly by pricing to offset input cost inflation and premiumization. Operating profit (beia) grew 1.8% as the incremental revenues from pricing were offset by significantly higher input and logistic costs, the disruption to our business in Haiti and incremental investments to grow in Brazil and Mexico. In Mexico, the growth was led by pricing, lower promotional spend and premiumization. The premium portfolio grew volume in the high teens, led by the success of Bohemia CRYSTAL and the continued momentum of Amstel ULTRA and Heineken. Our 6 stores continue to accelerate their growth. By the end of the year, we had added 1,700 more stores and now have about 16,000 stores. In Brazil, we saw a strong performance ahead of the market, led by Heineken and Amstel reaching record market share positions at the end of the year. Following the migration of our route to consumer last year, we have continued to digitize and we have now more than 160,000 active customers on our eB2B platform. In the U.S., we saw a small revenue decline following severe supply chain disruptions. Despite this challenging context, our innovations continue to drive growth, especially Heineken 0.0 and Dos Equis Lime & Salt. During the last quarter of '22, we rebuilt inventories to restore service levels across our portfolio and prepare for the launch of Heineken Silver. In APAC, beer volume increased organically by 29.3% following the strong recovery from the COVID-related restrictions last year. Net revenue (beia) was up 37.4% with price mix up 12.6% on a constant geographic basis, driven largely by pricing and premiumization. Operating profit increased 45.3% organically. We have [ now ] managed a strong recovery in the second half of the year, outperforming the market, led by the premium portfolio with Heineken Silver and Tiger Crystal. Bia Viet grew by more than 60% and accelerating the expansion outside our stronghold and our eB2B platform is also key in this expansion, helping us to significantly increase coverage with close to 90% retention rate of customers. In India, volume recovered ahead of 2019. The premium portfolio outperformed, led by Kingfisher Ultra and Heineken Silver was launched at the end of the year. And in China, Heineken Original and Heineken Silver continued their strong momentum. China is now the third largest market for the Heineken brand globally. The strong growth in the region was also supported by the strong double-digit growth in revenue in Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar, Laos and Japan. Moving to Europe. Net revenue grew by 19.2% with price mix up 11.8% on a constant geographic basis, primarily driven by positive mix effects from the reopening of the on-trade, premiumization and responsible pricing. Operating profit grew organically by 5% driven by the partial on-trade recovery as the gains in channel mix, premiumization, pricing and substantial cost savings were more than offset by a material increase in input costs, incremental brand support and significantly higher central, digital and technology charges. Beer volume increased organically by 4.6% versus last year, driven by the strong recovery in the first half. The on-trade through in the low 30s, remaining below 2019 by a high-single digit. The off-trade declined by mid-single digit staying ahead of 2019 by mid-single digits. Premium beer volume outperformed, boosted by the launch of Heineken Silver and the performance of our next-generation brands, including Desperados, Birra Moretti and El Águila. Overall, we gained or held market share in over 2/3 of our markets in Europe. The growth of our premium brands accounted for more than half of our total organic volume growth in '22. This growth was led by the continued strong momentum of the Heineken brand, up 14.5% in the first half, excluding Russia. The momentum was very broad-based as more than 50 markets grew double digits. The strong growth is led by Heineken Original, bolstered by the performance of its line extensions, Heineken 0.0 grew by 8.8%, excluding Russia, further strengthening its leadership position in the nonalcoholic segment. Heineken Silver more than doubled its volume driven by excellent performances in Vietnam and China and its global rollout, reaching 28 markets in total by the end of '22. The launch of Silver in Europe was the #1 across FMCG in '22. The Heineken brand was recognized in Cannes as the Most Awarded Food and Drink Brand for the creativity of its campaigns and by Kantar, it's the fastest-growing brand value among top alcohol brands. Let's have a closer look at the quality of the growth behind some of our top brands. Growing volume remains critical. We need to continue to increase penetration, expand our channels and innovate into new occasions. At the same time, we're investing to improve the power of our brands to price for inflation and to improve our revenue and margin management capabilities. Look at these 2 great examples. The Heineken brand grew net revenue by 36% versus '19, mainly driven by volume in markets like Brazil, where we have great momentum. In '21, the strong growth continued, more balanced between volume and price mix as we needed to offset the significant inflationary pressures via pricing. Another good example is Tiger, that this year grew an impressive 54%, driven by volume given the strong recovery in APAC. Relative to '19, you can better appreciate the significant contribution of price mix to the growth of Tiger where premiumization with Tiger Crystal has played a key role. To be able to deliver this type of balanced sustainable growth, the top priority of EverGreen, across volume, price and mix, we continue to invest behind our brands. This year, our marketing and sales as a percentage of net revenue reached 9.5%, a similar level to last year. Although relative to revenue, the level of investment is still behind '19. In absolute euros, we are ahead and will continue to invest more. We're also getting more out of these euros with higher consumer-facing spend reaching more than 70% in '22. Another area of incremental investment is to digitize our business, another EverGreen priority, and with the aim to become the best connected brewer. I hope you all had the opportunity to see the presentation by Ronald den Elzen, our Chief Digital and Transformation Officer at our Capital Markets event in December last year, when he shared how we are accelerating the digitization of our route to consumer. One announcement we were not quite ready to share then, I'm delighted to share today. Whilst it was important to leverage the entrepreneurial spirit of our operating companies to move fast, 40 different eB2B platforms across the world is too many. And now we want to standardize to be more efficient. Today, I can introduce you to eazle, business made easy. This is our new single brand name and identity, and we will start migrating all our eB2B platforms globally to eazle. The transition will enable better features at scale, resulting in improved customer experience with increased efficiency, helping them to grow their business. And the deployment of our eB2B business is moving fast. In '22, we captured EUR 9.2 billion in gross merchandise value through our platform, 2.5x the value of last year and on routes to EUR 15 billion by '25. We now connect more than 0.5 million customers, over 50% more than last year. The growth was driven by Vietnam, Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil, the U.K., Ireland, France, Italy and Cambodia. Brew a Better World is our 2030 strategy to drive progress towards a Net Zero, fairer and more balanced world. We're making good progress across all 3 pillars and are building executional momentum to deliver our ambitions. Relative to the 2018 baseline, we have reduced our absolute carbon emissions, Scope 1 and 2 by 18% on the way to our ambition to reach Net Zero carbon emission in this part of our business by 2030. We reduced our net overall emissions even considering that UBL in India was included for the first time in this measurement. We're also driving progress in Scope 3 by engaging our top packaging, cooling and raw materials partners globally to set sign-based targets and unlock low-carbon solutions. We continue to focus on healthy watersheds via water efficiency, water circularity and water balancing. In '22, we reduced our water usage to 3.0 hectoliter for hectoliter in water stressed areas. 25 of our 31 sites in water stressed areas have begun watershed protection programs, and around 30% of these sites are fully balanced. We're making progress when it comes to gender diversity. Over the last 5 years, we increased the percentage of senior management positions held by women from 19% to 27%. We're proud to be included in the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index 2023 for our commitment to a more equal and inclusive workplace. And we continue to use the power of our flagship brand Heineken to advance responsible consumption and make moderation cool. In '22, our operating companies invested over 10% of Heineken media spend, reaching at least 1 billion unique consumers worldwide. This week, we made history with Heineken 0.0 as the first nonalcoholic beer brand advertising at the Super Bowl, partnering with Marvel's Ant-Man with a powerful message to consumers on our commitment to responsible consumption, don't drink and shrink, as we said in the commercial. And with that, I would like to hand over to Harold.

Thank you, Dolf, and a good day to you all. I'll first take you through the main items of our financial results and close with our outlook for 2023. Moving on to the first slide. Again, a brief reminder of our EverGreen growth algorithm to deliver balanced superior value creation. And to do this sustainably, we are putting a broad algorithm in motion. First and foremost, as Dolf said, we aim to be a growth company. Growth offers the opportunity to go after productivity improvements, which in turn frees up resources for investments that drive the next cycle of growth. With this framework in mind, let us take a look at the progress for 2022. Starting with our top line performance on Slide 17, we posted an organic growth of EUR 4.6 billion or 21.2% reaching EUR 28.7 billion net revenue (beia). Total consolidated volume grew 6.4% organically for the full year, growing ahead of the category in the majority of our markets. It was led by the sharp recovery of Asia Pacific in the second half of the year, the reopening of on-trade in Europe in the first half and continued growth in the Americas and Africa, Middle East and Eastern European region. Net revenue per hectoliter (beia) was up 13.9%, and the underlying price mix on a constant geographic basis was up 14.3%. This growth was driven by positive channel mix by pricing for inflation and by premiumization in all regions. For the full year, the price component remained larger than the mix component in the Americas, AMEE and APAC regions, whilst in Europe, price mix were more balanced. In aggregate, pricing was up around 10%. The translation of foreign currencies had a positive effect of EUR 1.6 billion, adding 7.2% to the net revenue (beia) driven by the favorable currency developments from the Mexican peso, Brazilian real, Vietnamese dong and the U.S. dollar. Consolidation changes positively impacted net revenue (beia) by EUR 517 million or 2.6%, mainly from the consolidation of United Breweries in India. Moving on to the next slide. Operating profit (beia) for the year reached EUR 4.5 billion, ahead of last year by 24% organically, excluding consolidation and currency translation effects. So let me start with the organic growth. The EUR 4.6 billion of organic net revenue (beia) on the previous slide translated to EUR 800 million operating profit (beia) growth, a conversion rate of around 17%. This relatively low conversion rate would roughly double if we exclude the inflationary pressures in our cost base for which we priced. In addition, we restored and expanded investments in our business behind our growth agenda. The Asia Pacific region contributed the most to this profit growth, increasing by 45.3% with strong underlying performance and benefiting from the recovery of top line growth in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, amongst others. In AMEE, the profit growth of 31.5% was driven by revenue growth and disciplined cost management with most of our operations growing by double digits. In Europe, operating profit (beia) grew 5% organically, driven by further on-trade volume recovery, premiumization, pricing and substantial cost savings. However, there were also material increases in input and energy costs, incremental brand support and significantly higher central, digital and technology charges, as Dolf already highlighted. The Americas closed the year with operating profit (beia) growth of 1.8% despite the impact of higher logistics costs related to ocean freight into the U.S.A. and importing packaging materials to Brazil. The disruption of our business in Haiti should be mentioned and incremental investments behind growth in Brazil and Mexico. So a small but relevant side note for a second. We recorded a positive operating profit (beia) in the head office relative to the negative figure of past years. This was driven by higher general proceeds from license fees and services in line with the growth of the business. But in addition, we revised the charging rate in '22 for significantly increased global, digital and technology investments with an offsetting impact in the regions, most notably Europe, as I referred to earlier. Our operating profit margin (beia) was slightly ahead of last year and included a 25 basis points negative impact from consolidation changes, mainly UBL and translational ForEx. Now allow me to go into more detail on some of the key cost drivers. Our input cost (beia) grew in the high teens per hectoliter with significantly higher prices from commodities and energy, particularly in Europe and premiumization. Transactional currency effects had a negligible year-on-year effect, and about 20% of the input cost inflation was mitigated by structural cost savings. Marketing and selling (beia) expenses increased organically by 22.4%. And again, as Dolf showed earlier, we have continued to invest bringing the absolute level well ahead of pre-pandemic levels, mainly driven by consumer-facing expenses. And our marketing and selling expenses expressed as a percentage of revenue were therefore broadly similar to last year. Personnel expenses (beia) increased organically by 9.1%, largely driven by labor cost inflation and cycling prior year COVID support schemes in the first half of the year. Currency translation had a positive impact of EUR 250 million from Mexico, Brazil and Vietnam. Consolidation changes had a small positive impact of EUR 12 million or 0.4% on operating profit (beia). Now I would like to cover other key financial (beia) metrics on the next slide. The share of net profit of associates and joint ventures (beia)amounted to EUR 263 million, a growth of 12.1%, primarily driven by the impressive performance of China Resources Beer. Net interest expenses were 6.8% lower, reflecting a lower average net debt position as the average effective interest rate stayed at similar levels to last year. Other net finance expenses (beia) amounted to EUR 63 million, down 12.3% on an organic basis, driven by a one-off positive mark-to-market gain of long-term green energy contracts, and obviously, this was linked to the surge of market pricing for energy. Net profit (beia) grew by 30.7% versus last year, driven by the growth in operating profit, lower interest and net financing expenses and the lower effective tax rate. The effective tax rate (beia) was 27.7% and last year was 29.9%. The decrease is driven by the increase of the profit before tax base, a more effective use of tax credits and lower nondeductible items. All in all, this resulted in 39% EPS growth to EUR 4.92 ahead of 2019 by 12%. We will propose a dividend increase of 40% to EUR 1.73 per share to the AGM. Finally, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 2.1x, well in line with the company's long-term target net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of below 2.5x. Let us now turn to free operating cash flow on the next slide. Our free operating cash flow in the year was EUR 2.4 billion, a reduction of circa EUR 100 million versus last year. This was driven by higher CapEx, a negative change in working capital and higher income taxes paid. Cash flow from operations before working capital changes and after provision and post-retirement obligations improved by close to EUR 1.3 billion, driven by the strong growth in operating profit and a reduction in provisions of around EUR 80 million. The working capital movement was adverse by EUR 743 million compared to last year, mainly from an increase in inventories of EUR 484 million. This was in part driven by our risk management response to growing uncertainty on supply, including energy-related risks, and availability of raw and packaging materials. Overall, CapEx came in just over the EUR 2 billion mark, a significant step-up ahead of last year and in line with our guidance. We previously flagged that CapEx was, to an extent, hampered by COVID-related restrictions over the last years, and activity resumed to a more normal pace in 2022. The main investments this year were for capacity expansions in Brazil, Nigeria and Vietnam. Cash for interest, dividend and tax increased in aggregate by EUR 280 million, mainly from higher income taxes paid. Next, I want to return to the extra slide we produced last year to give you a perspective on the moving parts in our profit over the years. To the left of the slide shows the operating profit (beia) since 2019, with our operating profit (beia) at EUR 4.5 billion, ahead of 2019 by EUR 0.5 billion. Now on the right-hand side, we've updated the main drivers of our profit movement relative to 2019. Please note that this view is indicative and not meant as an attempt to fully reconcile the components of operating profit between the years. The first thing that you note is that we will have removed the COVID volume effect bar that you will remember stood out last year. This was for reference, a EUR 1.4 billion bar that was there. And this is an indication of our recovery. And in aggregate, this recovery is now fully complete. It is not uniform across regions, markets and channels. As for example, the on-trade in Europe has not yet recovered back to 2019 levels and tourism in markets such as Indonesia and Egypt remaining below 2019. The larger red bar shows the inflation and transactional currency effects, a EUR 5 billion impact over a 3-year period and on a close to EUR 20 billion cost base. Please note that the impact of inflation during '22 alone was substantial, more than doubling the size of this bar. Close to 80% is related to variable costs, and the remaining 20% came on other fixed costs, such as personnel expenses. The accumulated adverse transactional currency effect remains approximately EUR 0.5 billion. The far right on this slide indicates our progress in adapting to these challenges and responding assertively and intentionally. First, price mix. Strong channel mix from the recovery of on-trade, continued momentum in our premium portfolio and our approach for pricing for inflation in a responsible manner on a euro-for-euro basis has achieved close to EUR 4.3 billion. As we call it, this was reflected in price mix. And finally, the continued major significance of our EUR 1.7 billion gross savings program towards restoring our profitability, whilst also enabling the full reversal of EUR 0.5 billion of cost mitigation actions taken last year and the increase in investments for growth. Moving on to the outlook. On 30th of November '22, ahead of our Capital Markets Event, we reconfirmed our medium-term guidance and provided further precision to our 2023 outlook statements. These expectations remain unchanged, and let me reiterate them. For 2023, we expect operating profit (beia) to grow organically mid- to high-single digit, subject to any significant unforeseen macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. This outlook is based on continued progress on EverGreen, a challenging global economic environment and lower consumer confidence in certain markets. We expect further progress towards building great brands, our digital route to consumer, strategic capabilities and our Brew a Better World activities, and they all will have commensurate investments. We also expect stable to modestly growing volume, increasing in developing markets and declining in Europe. We will continue the discipline to price responsibly as per local market conditions, aiming to cover most of the absolute impact of inflation in our cost base, yet ensuring market competitiveness. We anticipate an increase in our input cost in the high teens per hectoliter and also, we anticipate significantly higher energy cost, particularly in Europe compared to a year ago. We will deliver on our gross savings ahead of the EUR 2 billion target relative to the cost base of 2019, increasing the ambition of savings in Europe. Overall, as a result, net revenue (beia) will grow organically ahead of operating profit (beia). We also want to flag that due to investments and input cost inflation, the operating profit organic growth will be skewed towards the second half of the year. And finally, some other points that we wanted to bring your attention to for the year ahead. We expect in 2023, an average effective interest rates (beia) of around 3.1%, a little bit up versus the 2.8% we had in '22. An effective tax rate of around 27%, down 70 basis points and a significant increase in other net financing expenses, driven by expected foreign currency impact in some of our developing markets. And as a result, net profit (beia) is expected to grow organically in line or below the operating profit (beia). We continue to expect that the transaction with Distell and Namibia Breweries will close in the coming months. This will be EPS accretive already this year and margin accretive in the medium term. We also still aim to reach an agreement in the first half of 2023 regarding the transfer of ownership of our Russian operation. This will have a limited impact on our organic growth. And upon completion of the disposal, the cumulative foreign exchange losses related to Russia, that are currently recorded on equity, will be recognized in the income statement in addition to the EUR 88 million impairment that we've taken in our results in '22. With that, I would like to hand over to Dolf for a closing comment before we take your questions. Thank you.

Thank you, Harold. Yes, we are very pleased with the strong set of results for '22 in a continuously challenging and volatile environment. Our business has fully recovered relative to '19. The global economic outlook will remain challenging. We will continue to invest while staying disciplined on pricing and cost. We will continue to progress with our EverGreen strategy and are confident that we are on course to deliver long-term, sustainable and consistent value creation. Thank you, and we now open the Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from the line of Edward Mundy from Jefferies.

I've got 3 questions, please. You can really see in the numbers how you've shifted from a volume-driven top line to a more balanced volume and value driven top line. Could you talk to how as a management team, you're ensuring the pendulum doesn't swing too far from volumes to price mix, given the importance of volumes for both recruitment in the category and also the operating leverage element of the business. Second question is I'd be very interested in your view as to why we haven't seen a more negative reaction on volumes from the pricing taken in Europe so far. We've historically been in the semi-deflationary environment, and you're probably running at a mid- to high single-digit revenue per hectoliter if you back out the distortion from China recovery in the first quarter. So why is it holding up? Is it because mix has a bigger weighting relative to history? Or is it more macro factors? And then the third question, how do you -- I think it was Slide 18 where you talked about the conversion rate between sales and EBIT at about 17% would double if you excluded the inflation on the cost base. As inflation pressures ease over the medium term and you continue your cost journey, this does free up an element of optionality about what to do with this free profit. The question really is, will you run your business to a certain corridor? Or is there room for accelerated investments in some years as you fund the growth? Or more of this to drop through to the bottom line as you feel the profit?

Fantastic. Thank you, Ed. Let me take a stab at the first 2 questions, and then Harold will take the third. On your question of moving the company from a volume-based company to a more balanced volume and value based, first of all, we are quite happy to see the shift happening and that's why we included that slide on the Heineken and the Tiger brands. Your concern, how do you make sure you don't swing the pendulum too far. Now first of all, I think every general manager, every management team has a market share as a bonus STI. So I think that's something that we keep a very close look at. We are very happy as we reported that we are growing market share in the majority of our markets. We're growing market share in 2/3 of our markets in Russia -- in Europe. So in that sense every field, that is strongly incentivized. And at the same time, we have added more focus on revenue management, on gross margin as a target for our operational leadership teams. And so far, we have been very proud to see the balance happening. A very big part of this actually is a portfolio transformation. Not every hectoliter is equal, and we're extremely happy to see premium beer continuously outgrowing our overall beer volumes and actually brand Heineken outgrowing premium. You see that holding true for '22 versus '21, but if you compare -- and we included that 1 slide where you compare '22 to '19, that our total consolidated volume is actually flat. Our total beer volume up 2.7%, but then our premium volume of 15% and brand Heineken actually up over 30% versus '19. So yes, we are proud that this is done in a very deliberate way, not just by overtaking on pricing. This is really difficult but sustainable portfolio transformation that is at the core of this. Your second question on volumes in Europe. Indeed, I think around the third quarter results, we expressed concern on impact on volumes. Truth be told, in the fourth quarter, the volumes held up better than we were expecting. We grew our volumes in Europe over the year, including in the fourth quarter. Volume is more or less flat versus '19. On-trade volumes still high-single digit behind good off-trade running mid-single digits above. So indeed, more resilient than maybe a lot of people including our self thought. We are not taking this for granted because at the beginning of this year, we need to take some steep price increases to reflect the explosion in energy costs that started to occur in the middle of last year, so that is hedged in. And we do expect that level of price increases early in the year to start having an impact. That's why we reiterate in our outlook that we expect declining volumes in Europe. But yes, actually, so far, we have not seen that happen. Maybe related is a very steep increase in our marketing and selling investments, up almost EUR 0.5 billion organically, now firmly above the level of 2019. So we really want to make sure that we earn pricing power through brand power. And that's why we gave a bit of additional, yes, info on that in that extra slide. On that, over to Harold for the third question.

Really happy that you're asking this question about the optionality for growth and profit conversion because I think everyone on the call knows the answer to that as well. We like both. And first and foremost, that's why both Dolf and myself are referring to this growth algorithm that we're really, really focusing in on, is that first and foremost, we want to be a growth company. This has been the trajectory of Heineken for the past 158 years, and we hope that for the next 158 years, that remains the case. And for that growth, we need to make sure that we drive productivity improvements, because this growth is a source of actually constantly reallocating capital, but also your investments. And as long as you do that with discipline and focus on a return on investment, then actually, it is a good thing to reinvest in your business to get to the next cycle of growth. So that is really what we're focusing on to bring growth mindset, first and foremost, in the company, which was already there, only now on premium, on innovation to enhance it. At the same time, this cost-conscious culture that we keep on referring to really needs to, yes, become part of the DNA so that, that investment gets unlocked with that growth. More specific, we called it out in the CME as well, and we'll reiterate that today. Over the medium term, we believe that some leverage needs to come through. It's a reinvestment model, but over term, some operating leverage from that growth needs to come through.

Thank you. Let's go to the next question.

[Operator Instructions] The next question today comes from the line of Pinar Ergun from Morgan Stanley.

There's been quite a bit of investor interest in FEMSA's corporate structure review lately. I appreciate you may not wish to comment extensively on this, but perhaps you could remind us of your thinking on one, buyback, and 2, financial leverage. Theoretically speaking, would you feel comfortable in temporarily exceeding the 2.5x net debt-to-EBITDA threshold? And then one longer-term one on Vietnam. How do you see the competition dynamics evolve from here as Heineken and others look to grow beyond their traditional strongholds. A number of players have stepped up efforts on premium recently, while you expand in mainstream, do you see any implications on margins?

Yes, maybe you take the question on...

So eloquently worded, Pinar, indeed. Let us zoom in on the corporate structure and how we think about capital allocation. We spoke previously that it is very important for us to start focusing in on capital productivity. And we're very happy with the way that our business at the moment is generating a healthy cash flow in order to make sure that our net debt-to-EBITDA ratios are coming down. First and foremost, very much the same way that I ended on Ed's question, we remain a growth company. So the priority for capital allocation remains that, first and foremost, we want to continue investing in growth and expand our business organically. Secondly, it is extremely important to us also for our financial discipline and credibility to maintain our long-term target of net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, where we consistently say we will strive to get that below 2.5% as the target, we will maintain that stance. It's also important that we are predictable and consistent in our dividend policy. So to pay out 30%, 40% of net profits, that's the range that we're indicating will remain a priority. Now that is also to say that over the past 15 years, excess cash has been redeployed in our business because priorities were there. We have had a very successful inorganic expansion with Scottish & Newcastle, FEMSA, APB, Brazil Kirin, UBL, our stake in China Resource breweries. And of course, we're hoping to get some news -- good news from South Africa any day soon. That is all part of how we think about the growth model. And we're very, very happy that we are having the option, and we do have the ability to deploy capital beyond the organic growth and beyond the expansion of the business. So let me put it and stay at that.

Very good. Thanks, Harold. Let me speak to your second question, Pinar, on Vietnam and the competitiveness of the market. First of all, we had an absolute amazing year last year, driven partly by the recovery of the pandemic, but also really with all our commercial priorities coming through a full steam. Our premium portfolio is on fire, rejuvenated with Tiger Crystal and with Heineken Silver, the expansion into mainstream with our regional propositions like Larue, but also with our national proposition Bia Viet. We believe there's still a lot of upside to -- and we traditionally have been over skewed to premium and urban areas in the South. Now we are really seeing an opportunity to move beyond the South, to be -- move beyond urban and to move beyond premium. And yes, we also believe that, that competition is a good thing, it makes us all invest more in consumers and expanding the market. We had very strong close to the year. We also had some softness in the beginning of the year due to the timing of debt. And this is a very early debt, but at the same time, yes, we remain very confident in the prospects of Vietnam and that we will recover in the remainder of the year. So no concerns there. Actually, we remain very optimistic and confident on the future prospects of our Vietnamese business, including all the competition for that matter.

The next question today comes from the line of Andrea Pistacchi from Bank of America.

Two questions from me, please. The first one is on pricing in Europe. At the Capital Markets Day, you sounded rather optimistic about your price negotiations with the European retailers. So could you give us an update, please, on these negotiations? And whether -- I imagine the intention is to pass on, you said the vast majority of the cost pressures you're incurring, whether you'll be able to do that do you think with this round of price negotiation or whether you may need to go back for some more pricing later in the year as some of your competitors have been suggesting, please? The second question is back to Asia. Volumes in Asia have organically recovered. They are both pre-pandemic levels, revenues well above margins are still, I reckon about 300 basis points behind, which is more than in other regions. Besides cost pressures which will abate, are there any reasons why that more or less 300 basis points margin gap in Asia shouldn't be fully recovered over the medium term as an organic margin gap?

Very good. Thanks, Andrea. On that last point, it's really driven by UBL. So the additional...

No, no, no. Also, the operating margin that you see in APAC is because UBL is now coming back -- coming into the equation. So if you exclude that, the drop was way, way less than what you're pointing to. Yes. In fact, Federico just pointed out, I was hesitating whether to call it out, but in fact, it would have been an increase in margin expansion in APAC.

Yes. And I think what we have said, for example, in a market like Vietnam, we are not obsessed with margin there. It's really making -- and as we are mainstreamizing -- adding mainstream, we're not obsessed that we try to make sure that mid-long term we have a very healthy balanced portfolio with a balanced margin profile. But actually, right now, it's -- the margin is up versus '19. On pricing in Europe, actually, indeed, yes, I would say we are even a bit more confident today than we were at the CME in terms of our price increases early in the year. So that's not where the uncertainty comes from. What's more uncertain is to what extent competition will follow. So yes, that will play out in the weeks and months to come and how consumers will react. Anything to add to that, Harold?

No.

Okay.

The next question today comes from the line of Laurence Whyatt from Barclays.

A couple for me around your cost base, please. I was wondering if you could let us know the sort of phasing of the cost that you're expecting this year. You mentioned that you're expecting a bit more profitability in the second half of the year. Can we assume that the majority of the high teen input cost inflation is going to be coming in the first half of the year? And then secondly, could you let us know if the current spot rates that we're seeing in the market today are currently below your hedged rates for this year, i.e., should we expect lower COGS going into 2024 if we were to see unchanged commodity prices towards the -- as we go into next year? And if we were to see any reduction in commodity prices or if commodity prices stay relatively low, how confident are you that you'll be able to hold on to the pricing that you're currently taking? Or would there be an expectation that supermarkets and other of your buyers and customers would ask you to lower your prices, how confident would you be to hold on to that pricing?

Thank you, Laurence. Harold, can you?

Yes. Laurence, let me take. Actually, I think both questions, but Dolf may be able to complement. I'm going to answer your question to some extent, Laurence. But what I really want to caution us against is that we are going into a quarter-by-quarter P&L management. And I know that's not your intent of your question. So I'm going to come back to what you're asking for, but I just want to go on record saying, look, we're really trying to build sustainable profitable growth in this business for the long term and really do want to shy away from, let's call it, going from one quarter to another. Now in terms of your question, which is quite specific about the cost phasing, I think there are 2 parts to this question. The first one is what is happening to input costs, and I'll give you a bit of a flavor to that. But the other part of the equation, of course, is our reinvestment profile and both have an impact on our operating profit organic growth. And both are giving us the signal that it is indeed the case that our operating profit organic growth expansion is more skewed towards the second half of the year, let me say, significantly skewed towards the second half of the year rather than the first half of the year. And why is that so? Because we indeed see that the variable cost or the input cost inflation, including energy, for the hedging that we've taken in the past year, but also the contracts that we've closed is more pronounced in the first half of the year than in the second half of the year. So we do see a skew in terms of input cost inflation towards the first half of the year. But that also, as I just indicated, comes with the level of investments that we plan to in the business, where we're really trying to create this momentum that I was speaking about, about fostering top line growth that then gives us productivity that then does the investment, we really want to do the right thing. And a good example of that is the Heineken Silver launch in the U.S., for instance, where we really want to make that as big a brand as we possibly can.

In beginning of last year, we still had the pandemic constraining our investments.

Absolutely. And if you -- as Dolf just said, if you currently look to -- moving on to your second question at the current spot rates, we also watch that clearly. And indeed, it is the case that the current spot rates that we currently see for many of the materials are below the hedge rates that we've taken into 2023, but not all. We saw until recently, for example, that aluminum shot back up where the gas prices came back down. And since last week, that seems to be coming down in aluminum as well. So how confident are we, firstly in -- can we already see what is going to happen in 2024, we're just about starting to hedge. So it's too early to really call that, but we are watching the spot rates the same way you do. The second question is do we hold on to prices? I think what we're really trying to do is take -- build a portfolio, what Dolf was referring to, that really has a high level of brand power. We really want to increase the level of innovation in our business, properly support that. And with that, we're hoping to take the consumer as well as the customer with us. Mind you, Heineken Silver was very, very biggest, the biggest FMCG launch that Europe has seen. And this gives us confidence that we are finding the right balance between volume and price mix led growth.

Maybe just one small but important point to further emphasize, yes, the phasing of our operating profit organic growth will be significantly skewed to the second half, but we reiterate and are really confident in our ability to deliver the mid- to high-single digit operating profit growth for the year. And that's why we didn't change the outlook there.

The next question today comes from the line of Sanjeet Aujla from Credit Suisse.

A couple for me, please. Firstly, if you're pricing [ euro for euro ] in Europe, is it reasonable to assume the ambition is to try and hold profitability in absolute terms in the region this year? That's my first question.

And apparently, your only. So we are -- so I think what we're trying to do here is to indeed signal that we will price as much as we can for inflation, but we've also concluded and made specific that we take market conditions and competition into account. So before we are too single-minded about we will just price for inflation, I just want to caution and calibrate that a little bit. Secondly, you will recall, we are working extremely hard to make Europe more competitive as well. And I think Søren did a really good job in the Capital Markets, together with [ Maarten ] in displaying that. We are premiumizing the portfolio. We're putting a lot of incremental investments, both in digital as well as in our brand portfolio and innovation in the market, higher premium products with higher gross profit per hectoliter. And secondly and lastly, we are very much focused on the cost transformation of Europe as well. We talked about the network supply chain. That is in full swing, and that will play an important part in 2023 profitability as well. So is it reasonable to assume? I think we have our plans. We have confidence in our plans and time will tell, but we are confident.

You may have further questions. Yes, go ahead.

Just a follow-up on Brazil and Mexico and Lat Am in generally, how you're feeling about the category consumer environment there? And specifically on Brazil, how far down the road are you in deemphasizing your economy portfolio there, which has been a bit of a drag on your volumes?

Yes. Thanks, Sanjeet. Well, in Brazil, our momentum continues to be very, very strong. And we grew our volumes for the year in the high-single digits. We reached an all-time high volume and value market share continues to be led by both our premium portfolio with Heineken as well as our mainstream portfolio with Amstel. We remain super disciplined, if not assertive on pricing but we -- yes, the underlying [ fully ] momentum is -- doesn't seem to be affected by it. We are on a capacity expansion plan that's quite deliberate freeing up x million hectoliter year by year. And this broad strategic transformation of the portfolio that we started in 2017, we really are committed to step-by-step continue to go down this path. The deprioritization of low-margin soft drinks, that is slowly but surely coming to an end. And I think we are starting to see the first -- and also the proportional weight of economy is now such that it's starting to have less and less effect on our overall trend. So I can only say that we are very pleased with how things keep on working out for us in Brazil, and we will stay the course and continue. Mexico is a different story. We're extremely pleased with the development of SIX, we're pleased with the development of the portfolio. We're really emphasizing premium. But then, of course, we have now the last bite of the OXXO mixing that really already affected Q4 of last year because the last 3, 4 years, we had 2 waves of mixing, 1 in the beginning and 1 in the middle. But last year, we had a third one in the fourth quarter. So that was a particular heavy one. And then, of course, end of December, we started to make [indiscernible], which is our traditional stronghold. So short, short term, big -- relative big impact from the OXXO mixing more than on average over the last 3, 4 years. But this is the last bite at the apple. We are super pleased with this that we came through this period without any deleveraging of our volume scale in the market, and it's just a matter of getting through '23 because as of '24, we have clear skies in the sense that it's like-for-like where we have this drag of the OXXO mixing not happening anymore. I can't emphasize enough the strategic importance of SIX and the momentum that continues to have because that will be one of the key pillars of our growth strategy going forward. And yes, as is obvious, at significant higher margins then we are selling, of course, in a competitive channel like OXXO. Let me halt it at that. Thank you, Sanjeet.

Our next question today comes from the line of Trevor Stirling from Bernstein.

First question is -- relates to your Slide 6, you showed some remarkable product mix in Slide 6 versus 2019 in terms of the growth of premium and the even more stronger growth of Heineken. But you also highlight that underlying margins have declined as well over those 3-year period. If you look at the causes of that, there's still clearly sort of residual negative channel mix in Europe, does that mismatch between pricing and input costs? Are there any other factors that lie behind that margin compression? And the second question, sort of more specific follow-up is looking at [ 2020 ] margins in the Americas. You highlighted 2 factors there, the import of raw materials into Brazil and the ocean freight rates. I think you said to us at the CME, Dolf, that the ocean freight rate pressures would continue and the relief would only come in 2024. But will the Brazilian importation, the packaging import, will that drop out in 2023?

Very good. Let me speak maybe to the first and if you can speak to the second one, Harold. So deliberately, we put in that Slide 6 because in one way, it shows the work that we have been doing with EverGreen these last 2, 3 years. We have been quite discerning on volume. And for example, made a decision on super-low margin, even sometimes gross margin negative, the soft drink volumes in Brazil to basically make the call to walk away from that. So we have been making tough portfolio choices in that regard. We have been exiting a couple of markets as we have spoken to in the past. But then indeed very, very proud on the skill of the premiumization of the portfolio and with premium basically growing at about 5x the rate of total really led by the Heineken brand. And we all know the success of Heineken Brazil, but actually, we are now seeing 50, 5-0, 50 markets globally growing brand Heineken double digit, that's truly extraordinary. And yes, we have new innovations like Silver and 0.0, but also Heineken Original still growing double digits. So fantastic to see that transformation. Yes, you're right that there is margin compression, but there's absolute operating profit scale expansion about EUR 0.5 billion of incremental operating profit basically on flat volume. So that means without using any operating leverage, we have been able to overcome 3 years of cost inflation, no operating leverage, but yet deliver EUR 0.5 billion in incremental operating profit. That margin is indeed partly affected by channel mix in Europe and partly by this all nominate or denominator issue driven by, yes, the extent of the pricing that we have been taking. The EUR 2 billion growth savings program, of which we have realized EUR 1.7 billion, has been absolutely fundamental because out of the EUR 1.7 billion, EUR 0.5 billion has gone to the bottom line. The other part, we needed to compensate for the inflationary pressures in the company. What we're really trying to do is to drive our fixed cost as a percentage of revenue down. And that is what we are tasking our global functions, our operating companies and that is also what gives us confidence that we should commit and have committed to that EUR 400 million saving going forward in the years to come. And so we try to run the company much leaner and meaner on a fixed cost structure, but at the same time, really stepping up our marketing and sales expenses, as we said, about EUR 0.5 billion up organically last year, up 22%, and we intend to continue to take those investments up. And with time, as Harold said, we do subscribe to the notion of operating leverage. It won't happen this year. The opposite, have but in the years to come, we do aspire to start normalizing our margin again. Over to you, Harold on the Americas.

Yes. I'm going to be quite specific to your questions, Trevor. But let me start off with Brazil because it is a nice connection to what Dolf just said. We're extremely happy with our performance in Brazil, and it is a large driver of our premium beer volume because Heineken is doing exceptionally well. We see now Amstel growing at scale very well, but it will also not be a surprise to this audience that the operating profit in Brazil, the operating margin, I should say, is still below the company average. We've been quite transparent about this. So of course, we're encouraged by the growth. We're also encouraged by the progress that the Brazil team is making but it does still have a dilutive impact on the operating profit for now. That's one of the things that is there. One of the things that we're doing exactly to your question is that we're working extremely hard with our suppliers who fortunately also believe in the growth of Brazil and partner with us. So we're getting a lot of capacity, not only in our own breweries but also supplier capacity coming on stream, and that will significantly reduce the imports that we were talking about, the 1 billion bottles that I quoted will happen already to some extent next year, but it will take time to build to full capacity. But that's the progress that we're making. On ocean freight, we closed ocean freight contracts early 2022, also for 2023. So indeed, we confirm again that, that will only roll off in 2024 to a material level if rates stay where they are today and the direction continues.

Thank you, Trevor. I think we can permit maybe one last question.

The final question today comes from the line of Simon Hales from Citi.

A couple really quick, maybe clarifications, to be honest. Firstly, I just may have missed it in answer to Andrea's earlier question on pricing. But is the pricing you're taking at the moment in Europe, in particular, is it that sufficient, do you think, to offset the majority of the cost inflation you're seeing in 2023? Or do you think you will have to go back later in the year and see further price increases? So that was the first question. And then just secondly, just coming back to the whole discussion around FEMSA. I think again, from what we've heard today and what we heard at the Capital Markets Day, you're clearly very confident in your business and its growth trajectory. You clearly know your business better than any other. And on that basis, if you were given the chance to buy stake in the company at a discount, I'd just like to understand what factors would really stop you doing so?

Very good. Thanks, Simon. On the pricing in Europe, whether the first price increase round in the year would represent the majority of our input costs. And I think the answer is yes. And we cannot guarantee no second rounds, but the majority of the pricing needs will be realized early in the year. Would you like to comment on the second one?

Yes, although I'm not entirely sure what else I'm going to say. It is highly speculative, I think, to talk specifically about which factors will be in play, and that's the question that you're asking. I think I've answered the question what our priorities for capital allocations are but also made reference to the fact that we're very happy to have a healthy balance sheet that would allow us and that we have the ability for to deploy capital beyond the organic growth and the expansion of the business. Now we cannot really say anything about when and if and what the opportunities are because that's very hypothetical at this moment in time. We need to be ready when opportunities exist. This is true for acquisitions. It's true for any other opportunity, and then we'll make the decisions as and when they come.

Very good. I think that -- thank you, Simon. And I think that concludes today's call, and looking forward to some of you in London to see you in tomorrow, tomorrow in London. All the best.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.