Heineken N.V. ($HEIA)

Earnings Call Transcript · March 12, 2026

ENXTAM NL Consumer Staples Beverages Company Conference Presentations 43 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#1

Good afternoon to everyone. It's my great pleasure to introduce Harold van den Broek at the UBS Conference again this year. Harold, thank you for joining us. I want to start with a few big picture topics and let's kick off with the CEO transition. Dolf's resignation earlier this year took us all by surprise. Are you able to share with us any updates on the third timing, what we can expect?

Harold Broek

Executives
#2

No, thank you. And great to be here, Sanjeet. Thanks for the invite. Look, the CEO transition process, as many people will understand, is a process that is led with due care and diligence by the Supervisory Board. So the Supervisory Board sees this as really their #1 priority. So they'll really update us as soon as there's something to update, but the process is ongoing. What I do think is important for this audience and everybody who cares to listen needs to know is, first, the EverGreen 2030 strategy stands. So for us, internally in the company, this is not a moment to start questioning. We have a very good strategy. We talked about that in October last year in our Capital Markets Day, and we are fully focused on the execution of that. Maybe last point is the executive team is carrying the operationalization of that strategy. So we're not sitting still. We're actually pivoting forward to bring that to life.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#3

Understood. Just moving on to the guidance you gave us at the start of the year. You guided 2% to 6% organic EBIT growth. A little bit below the historical 4% to 8% range you've given. I appreciate there's been a lot of volatility in the world in the last 10 days as well, maybe validating a bit of prudence. But can you just give us a bit more context behind why you guided what you did and how you see the levers towards the upper end and the lower end of that range?

Harold Broek

Executives
#4

No, absolutely. And indeed, very often that we are talking about with investor base, with yourselves is about how do we control the controllables. And we know that there are certain things in Heineken that we really focus on. It is about how we grow market share, how we build out the category, for example, with these nine 0.0 brands. It is about how we drive our cost savings to create investment space, but also profitability and attractive shareholder returns. So all of these elements, we're quite confident on. There were 2 things that we felt we did not have fully in control. The first was the macroeconomic environment, as you alluded to as well. And the second one is simply because the calendar moves from '25 to '26 doesn't mean that consumer sentiment is shifting at the same pace. So we really felt it was right to indicate that we came from as a beer category globally, a negative volume in 2025 to just take that into account when setting these ranges. Now what is also very important is that we have started to move from single planning like we have one plan and we execute that for a year to much more trigger event planning. So that makes our company more dynamic to take into account growth opportunities where they arise. And the aggregation of these individual scenarios gave us also that 2% to 6% range. So that's why we felt comfortable to navigate there.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#5

Understood. Just moving on to EverGreen 2030 announced last October, the TMD. Management at the time sounded very confident on delivering mid-single-digit revenue with volume growth ahead of the industry. What are you doing differently over the next few years around resource allocation and execution muscle to deliver this ambition?

Harold Broek

Executives
#6

It's a great question, Sanjeet, and thanks for allowing me to expand on this a little bit. So first, Heineken traditionally was quite a democratic company. And it was because we valued each of our 80 operating companies almost equally, but their growth potential and value creation potential is actually not equal. So one of the changes that we made under EverGreen 2030 is to be very much more specific about in which market are you operating. It does matter when you are a value beer market where the first interaction with beer is with mainstream beer or whether you're advancing beer market where beer is already the go-to alcohol choice beverage of choice, where premiumization is actually the growth lever. Or whether you're a developed market where multi-beverage occasions really define that we actually need a different portfolio. So we've been very much more intentional segmenting the markets to growth potential and the stage of the life cycle that the consumer is in and the relevance of beer in that life cycle. The second thing that we've done is really articulated that there is more space in our portfolio for global brands. At the moment, only Heineken, beautiful brand, but only 25% of our portfolio is managed truly as a global brand. We have, based on consumer insights, 5 of such brands that can play a role. So that's the second shift that we're making. The third shift that we're making is to really start putting a Freddie AI in place, which is our name for our digital in-house marketing agency. so that the connection, but also the AI enablement of insight to communication is really much more efficient and therefore, gives us more opportunity for growth.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#7

Great. I think one of your big focus areas has been the implementation of the digital backbone. Where are you today on the harmonization of your IT and ERP systems? And what tangible benefits is Heineken really getting from that?

Harold Broek

Executives
#8

I think there are basically 3 things to look at. So first, we're in the early stage of the journey to answer your question. And what does that mean? Because when we have this fragmented federation of Heineken operating company units, all of them had their own infrastructure, their own data models, their own processes because it was basically a confederation of acquired companies or companies that -- where we built an infrastructure relevant for their markets. So it was really quite fragmented. And we decided 2 things where we started on this journey. The first one is how do we make sure that we do the frontline enablement at the same time as the back-office enablement because customers and consumers are digitizing rapidly. And as a consequence, we took, let's call it, a bit of inefficiency in getting there simply because we did not want to be late, but with our consumer and customer. And that means that applications like product recommendation, optimal assortment, working capital insights, sales representative prioritization are all already digital enabled. And this is not only good for us, it's also good for our client base. But what we are now also starting to see because we now have what we call our digital product alive in 4 operating companies and have started to move data and processes to much more harmonized levels is we already can start to see in our brewery network or in our shared service center network, the benefit of automation already coming through. For example, our brewery network is now fully connected, and we can learn what is happening in Mexico and apply it in Ethiopia. And that does not need manual interventions. It really is digitized. So there are back-office synergies. The third one is what we just talked about is this in-house marketing agency that is really now starting to happen for real, first in Heineken and in 2026 spreading across. So yes, we're early in the journey, but we didn't have low-hanging fruit just lying there. We're actually building that. And all of that set of applications that is the target destiny, we're about 35%, 40% there. So that's a bit how you should think about it.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#9

Very clear. One of the big themes from this recent results season has been some signs of broad-based price repositioning going on in whether it's food or parts of spirits. And with that backdrop, how are you feeling about Heineken's pricing and also tied to that revenue management capabilities, which has also been a bit of a focus area.

Harold Broek

Executives
#10

Yes, it's very good. And maybe just taking a step back before I answer your question directly. What we're currently seeing in the world and also in 2025, where the beer market, not only Heineken, but in aggregate was not growing. You know that the beer market declined by our estimates between 2% and 2.5%. We think that price consciousness of the consumer is a key factor in that. So revenue margin growth and our capability is really critical to address that, but it's not only pricing. The price-conscious consumer is really looking for is the brand worth the investment. And by the way, this is not only happening in beer. I really hear many, many companies talking about price-seeking value-driven consumers. So that is a very, very important reality that we're living in. Importantly, we know that it takes time to catch up. And we currently see wage inflation growing faster than general inflation. Big caveat, the Iran situation doesn't make things easier. So I'm really talking a little bit about what we saw happening until a few weeks ago. And in that, revenue margin is very important. It's about how do we get the right brand appeal either through advertising, for example, relevant sponsorships, right occasion like right service equation, but also right pack price architecture so that we can still have premium beer at an affordable price point. And that is something that we're really institutionalizing now in our company. Now to your question, how far are we progressed in that? I think there are better companies than Heineken for sure. So I would give a sales probably a 5 out of 10, 4.5 out of 10, and we're accelerating very fast because that's not a number that we're happy with.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#11

Got it. Let's go into a few markets, and I'd love to start with Europe. One of the key topics last year was the retailer dispute and the loss of shelf space. Where are you on that at the moment? How the retailer negotiations gone? And do you expect to fully recover those lost volumes?

Harold Broek

Executives
#12

Yes. No, let's indeed take the snapshot before zooming out. So at the moment, almost all, if not all, of the price negotiations in Europe have been concluded. So we can confirm that this is not going to be a repeat of 2024. So we're happy to say that. Second thing is you also saw in our full year results 2025 that our revenue per hectoliter growth was actually slightly positive, 1.4%. And this was really important to us because we are still living in Europe in an inflationary environment. And we really want to be intentional about offering the consumer, let's call it, space to recover, right? So we're pricing below inflation, but we also need to make sure that we have the opportunity to offset part of that inflation and invest behind our brands. And I think for 2026, we are there.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#13

Are you...

Harold Broek

Executives
#14

Sorry, I didn't answer. So the recovery of the retailer impact, we are also -- with the latest shelf resets coming in February, March, we are there.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#15

Got it. Okay. Beyond the retailer disputes last year, the category was declining, and I think there were a couple of markets such as Poland and Austria, where you had some big negative volume declines. So how are you thinking about the overall volume outlook in Europe beyond the retailer?

Harold Broek

Executives
#16

So this is -- hopefully, we'll come back later in the questions to some more positive stories. But here, I need to be a bit cautious. I think the European landscape because we are talking about the recovery of pricing and the recovery of our shelf space, these are the good parts of the elements. But what we also start to see happening, for example, deposit return schemes, where pricing needs to be taken and suddenly a can of beer is increasing in price because you have to pay the deposit and not everybody is taking the effort to then hand in that and bring the deposit back. So we do see in certain markets, particularly in Eastern Europe, still a very sober market dynamic. Population growth is not there in Europe. So we believe that Europe is a potential for stability and growth in pockets, as you know. But I don't want to be too optimistic too soon on a recovery of European volume. This will take time.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#17

Understood. Just digging a bit deeper into some of the medium-term trends in the region. A lot of excitement about premium and zero alcohol. I think a lot of investors understand and appreciate that. But the mainstream segment seems to be struggling. Clearly, it's the more price-sensitive part of the portfolio. But do you see a risk of structural decline in the mainstream segment in Europe? Or what are you trying to do to address that and get the core to stabilize?

Harold Broek

Executives
#18

So let's first say that we are in a good position. Heineken has a portfolio of brands, both at premium level, at mainstream level and at value level. So we can actually offer consumer propositions depending on where the consumer is looking for certain price points. So we do have a full coverage of our portfolio. What is important is that I think in the past 2, 3 years, we have been very intentional in driving premiumization and with some success, Birra Moretti in the U.K., Beavertown in the U.K., Ichnusa in Italy, all really great examples but in a value-seeking environment, mainstream is becoming extremely important. So also the focus in our business is really making sure not to be dogmatic in our strategy, but making sure that mainstream has a role to play there as well. So I think we understand that, and we can navigate accordingly.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#19

Understood. Europe margins are around 200 basis points below pre-pandemic levels despite a lot of cost savings, which has been offset by operating deleverage and inflation. If you get to a point where Europe volumes can stabilize, and clearly, there's more productivity coming in the region. Is it realistic for those margins to come back? Is that plausible ambition over the medium term?

Harold Broek

Executives
#20

Yes, it should be. Let me first say that I and our whole European team knows that. Glenn also agrees with me that we are not satisfied with the operating margins that we have in Europe. But a bit to what you're already alluding to, it needs to be a systematic solution for Europe. And that is a composition of 3 parts. The first one is it is very difficult in our industry to sustainably grow margins if there is no volume. So therefore, it really is important that we are finding and driving the growth pockets in Europe that we know that are there. And this comes with innovation, perfect execution, more pilots, more tests in order to bring consumer relevance back. Second is to invest behind category growth. This is coming from Formula 1 to football to music festivals to fantastic experiences in the outlet because ultimately, consumers have a choice in Europe, and we need to make sure that beer becomes their preferred choice, and that requires investment. In that sense, productivity is a very important part. But it's the combination of all that needs to bring Europe to operating margin levels starting with quality volume growth and productivity and the right investment. And at the bottom end, that magic will have to turn into increased operating margins. And I know and I'm convinced that we can get that back to pre-COVID levels.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#21

Got it. Very clear. I think in the full year results, you announced another round of restructuring in the organization. It feels like Europe in particular. To what extent is that impacting employee morale and engagement in the organization?

Harold Broek

Executives
#22

Yes. So again, let me take a first global lens here because we indeed announced a 5,000 to 6,000 role reduction. We are moving to a more streamlined head office. We're shifting about 3,000 employees to Heineken Business Service to not only get, let's call it, leverage from wage differentials, but also by really making sure that end-to-end and automation, what we talked about is possible. So there's a lot of transformation activity happening. In many parts of the world, this is embraced. This is embraced because they know that this is going towards the future, not towards the past. In Europe, there is a bit more complex dynamics going on. But I have to say that our European team is very much understanding the realities linked to the previous question and wants to go there. Now of course, this needs to be done with respect, transparency and care for the people. There are works councils. There are obviously people concerned about what this means for me. So that's why we're also really trying to do this the right way, but at speed. And the morale in Europe is very aware of what needs to happen and very much engaged in making this happen.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#23

Very clear. Moving on to LatAm. I think Brazil and Mexico also saw a challenging -- different challenges in 2025. Maybe on Brazil to start with, we've heard from some of your peers in beer, spirits and soft drinks at the start of the year, perhaps with a more positive tone towards the end of '25 and the start to 2026. Do you echo the same sort of optimism building?

Harold Broek

Executives
#24

Yes. So let me first say that Brazil for us in 2025 was a story of 2 halves. From an in-market performance perspective, this was a really good year for Brazil. We really gained market share. Amstel, Heineken, very good in-market momentum, but perhaps the people in the room yourself, you know that we had to take a course corrective action in terms of the stock levels and the outlets that we were serving because it was not at the right quality that we wanted. So that was an on goal, and we will not repeat that. What we also saw in the second half of the year is that because of macroeconomic realities in Brazil, the beer category started to decline to the tune of mid-single digit. And that for us was a bit of a call to action to say, okay, what is happening in this market? And that led me to be a little bit more cautious combined with macroeconomic fundamentals. What we currently see in December, January is a to be honest, much better than what I expected. So the category has been stable. Our business is doing well. I still remain -- maybe that's a CFO difference, but a little bit more cautious on the macroeconomics of Brazil. I hope I'm wrong. So far, it's better than what I expected.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#25

Understood. I think you took quite a bit of pricing towards the end of last year in Brazil. And we started to see the Heineken and Amstel brands maybe start to moderate from a share perspective. They've had a big run over several years. How are you feeling about the growth opportunity of those brands? And are you at a point where you need to perhaps think about broadening your portfolio?

Harold Broek

Executives
#26

It's always good to think about broadening your portfolio. So of course, we are doing that as well. But we don't feel that if you look at the brand power, the addressable consumer cohorts that we have, that Heineken and Amstel are running out of steam. There is still headway to grow our portfolio. But indeed, to your point, we now need to start thinking more broadly about what does Brazil mean for us and how do we -- can we build that out. Perhaps what is also really good to realize is that when I just said broadly stable market, it really is a difference between the premium and mainstream segment continuing to do well, not only from us, but also our largest competitor in that market is really starting to enhance and amplify the mainstream and premium growth. And it's the economy segment that is, at the moment, not doing very well. So underlying category dynamics are healthy. Our portfolio is healthy, too.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#27

Very clear. You added a new brewery late last year in Passos, I think 5 million hectoliters. Should investors view that as incremental capacity? Or is it more a reallocation of capacity and a cost benefit for Heineken?

Harold Broek

Executives
#28

Yes. So it's a bit of both. So we opened that brewery because there was very much inefficiency in the network because Brazil is a big country, and we were just shipping too much volume around. And the core pocket was really in the state around where we now put the brewery in Passos, where there was really a high demand for Heineken and Amstel. On top, many people will know, but there are significant incentives for investment in Brazil, which we capitalized on as well. So it was an optimization of the network. What is also important is that we have capacity to grow. And that was not the case a number of years ago. 2 years ago, we were really up to capacity limits. That is no longer the case because of the platforms that we've now built.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#29

Very good. Moving on to Mexico. And I think the beer category there has been remarkably resilient despite some of the geopolitical and macro headwinds. I think Heineken has been slightly underperforming on volumes. Is that purely a function of geographic mix, just given your over-indexation to the north? Or is it somehow pricing related? And to what extent is the social unrest or heightened social unrest in the north perhaps impacting?

Harold Broek

Executives
#30

Yes. It's a really good question. And unfortunately, a bit of a complex answer because your indication of is it this, that or the other, it's probably a combination of all of these things. So our Mexican business is really quite strong. It's the biggest operation that we have. We're very proud of the Mexican team and of our Mexican business. We really are building stronger brands, but we also have a formidable competitor. You know that our stronghold is in the North. Our competitor stronghold is more in the mid- and in the South. So it's not always a direct head-to-head competition. What we have done in 2025, first to your pricing point is I think we went a bit wild in really believing that we had an opportunity to gain share in the first half of the year. And we had to sort of course correct because we got the price volume equation, not fully right. And I think we were quite open about that in our full year results that, that was one of the -- one of the reasons why our price volume in quarter 4 was a little bit more skewed to price rather than to volume. Longer term, however, we do believe that the Mexican market has proven itself to be very resilient. We also have very responsible pricing in that market to make sure that beer becomes the -- is still the alcoholic beverage of choice. And we really see that stabilization coming into play in the first half of the year. So over a longer period of time, we're very happy with the business and believe that the dynamics are very healthy.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#31

Got it. You've got a new MD?

Harold Broek

Executives
#32

We do.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#33

Outside of the pricing volume equation, is there anything he's doing differently in the business? And I guess, aside to that, are you anticipating any big benefit from the -- welcome this year?

Harold Broek

Executives
#34

Yes. probably -- welcome this year. So first, Oriol, we're very pleased to have him on board. He's an extremely experienced leader, came out of other FMCG Mondelez, in this case and has really got a very, very good discipline in terms of how to execute with excellence that he brings with him. We'll leave him some time to make his own, let's call it, fine-tuning and rather speak after the fact while that is happening. But there's one thing that I can already say, the potential that we have with our 6 store franchise, he sees as a real, really big asset. And we have 17,000 stores are the #2 proximity retailer. So he really is starting to look holistically at our ecosystem in terms of how we can drive perfect execution, but also leveraging our own outlets.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#35

Got it. And World Cup here in Mexico?

Harold Broek

Executives
#36

World Cup, we hope that this is going to be an absolutely amazing event. We're glad to take the volume uplift. But what is more important to us a bit like where your question started, is it brings excitement and joy back into the category. And this is for us extremely important because the volume spike is good, but you pay the price a year later. It really is about how you bring beer back in the hearts of the consumer.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#37

Got it. Let's move on to Asia and Vietnam had an amazing turnaround last year, very strong market share gains, price/mix positive. How has the market performed through Tet? And how are you thinking about the outlook from here?

Harold Broek

Executives
#38

Yes. So first, very happy with our Vietnam business. And there was one call out could make to the team over a period of 2 years, portfolio, channel transformation, market share recovery, really proud of that, extremely well done. Look, we'll give you a fuller update at our quarter 1 results because the difficulty with Tet is you also need to be a bit patient between the replenishment of the stocks, right? There is a deep channel that we have to service to get to the consumer. But the initial signs of that is that it has been a quality occasion, so premium important and that has been, yes, a positive that. Those are the early indications, but we'll give you a fuller update.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#39

Very clear.

Harold Broek

Executives
#40

So we're actually confident in the Vietnam growth for 2026.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#41

I think India had some disruptions last year, weather, maybe some unfavorable excise tax moves. How are you thinking about the, the development in the regulatory landscape and the outlook for the category in '26 and beyond?

Harold Broek

Executives
#42

Yes. So indeed, but I'm going to answer your question a little bit different, and that is a bit longer time frame. because we know and we've been explicit that India is the largest untapped opportunity for beer that we see on the planet. But this is not going to be a very quick win. And what are there for the dimensions of success? Indeed, what you say is how do we normalize and professionalize the category is the biggest unlock for beer in the Indian market. This is something that we, as a market leader with close to 50% market share should be leading and are leading, but all the international brewers are playing a role in that. So what we currently see happening in India is 3 things. First is India is full of self-confidence as a nation. And self-confidence investment, this is good for people's mindset, for consumption, for growth. Secondly is we do see, therefore, younger cohorts joining the workforce who are a little bit more open to alcohol. They are not living at home. They don't have the, let's call it, the inhibitations, if that's the right word, that maybe their parents were carrying. They go to work, they socialize. They'd like to have a beer. And this is important because that, in turn, makes that state politicians because beer is still a state-by-state regulated category, are becoming a little bit more open for, for example, excise differentiation, but also price liberization or indeed customer outlet fragmentation and more licenses or better quality outlets. That, in the end, will drive the category growth, and we see a positive trend in India.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#43

Got it. It feels like the big drag in the whole Asia region has been Cambodia the last couple of years. What can you do to stabilize that business? Or do you need to consider exiting at some stage?

Harold Broek

Executives
#44

Yes. So what we internally call unapologetically, I have to say, is we have a number of resolved markets where we are not satisfied with the value creation potential that we see going forward. And to make that explicit basically means there are 3 options. How do we fix it ourselves? How do we partner or how do we exit? Those are the 3 flavors that we offer. And therefore, because we are a big business in Cambodia, we are really in active dialogue, first and foremost, with government about how do we normalize excise regimes and how do we normalize consumption. For those people who are now there, in Cambodia, basically ring-pull promotions are offering so much free beer that this is an inhibition to responsible consumption. And we don't think that, that is the right way to create category growth. So that is a dialogue that we have with the government. We then need to see whether we're successful in creating that to consider alternative options. But it does mean our Cambodia team is really all on this, and they know that the responsibility that they carry, but there is a limit to how much longer we are going to entertain a conversation before considering other options.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#45

Got it. Moving on to Africa. The region comes with a lot of volatility, but a lot of potential. We seem to be seeing inflation moderating, particularly in key markets such as Nigeria. How confident are you on that market, which I think was a bit of a drag last year and the broader region returning to volume growth?

Harold Broek

Executives
#46

In which?

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#47

In Nigeria and...

Harold Broek

Executives
#48

Okay. I was going to say because the big delta in Ethiopia grew volume, South Africa grew volume. It was really Nigeria holding us back. And therefore, there are different stories in Africa, Sanjeet. Nigeria is really a matter of macroeconomics. It's very important that our business has done 2 things extremely well. First of all, we're growing share. And secondly, we are really reducing the breakeven point through cost interventions in order to make sure that we are running a profitable business. The macroeconomic situation makes it such that actually poverty is a real thing in Nigeria. And that means that people are moving out of the category, but we will be ready to welcome them back once the economy stabilizes. And what I really have to say is that the Nigeria Central Bank and government are doing a lot of good work. We see inflation coming down, currency more stable. This is all unknown Middle East impact, just to say. But we believe that there is positive -- cautious positive recovery happening in Nigeria. Ethiopia, South Africa and Egypt are good markets for us.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#49

And just digging into South Africa there, big strategic bet a few years ago with Distell. It feels like the beer business is starting to turn around, and you've started to get a bit more consistency there. How are you thinking about that going forward? And ultimately, is the multi-beverage strategy with wine and spirits working for you?

Harold Broek

Executives
#50

Yes. So first, we're still not a business case level. So I just want to -- don't want to declare victory in Heineken Beverages, so Southern Africa and South Africa just yet. But what I am proud about is indeed to what you just said, we do see real recovery in beer and in ciders is doing very well. [ Wine ] is the one that we haven't cracked yet. But Bernini, for example, is doing extraordinarily well, 40% growth, a great beer juice. And what has made the difference is 2 things. The first one is, I think we underestimated the cultural integration between Distell and Heineken. This took longer. There was a high level of competitive activity, and we really had to bring the 2 teams together. The second one is I want to say a big thank you to our customer base in South Africa because at first, they really didn't know what this collaboration between Heineken and Distell meant for them. But the partnership structure that we've now put in place, the route to market really is working for us, and that has been a big part of the recovery or the path to success, I should rather say, in South Africa. So we're actually optimistic that, that can continue.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#51

Got it. I think last year, what we saw in Africa was a big margin recovery and hard currency profit growth, which has been lacking in the last few years. Do you still see opportunities to drive margins higher? Or do we expect a bit of a pause from here?

Harold Broek

Executives
#52

No. We still see opportunities. Look, the team that runs Africa has a very -- it's 2 very simple mantras. The first one is we need to generate value, and that means that our profit margin needs to be higher than the cost of capital. So if there is any place because we probably will speak about capital base as well that really lives up to that purpose, it's the Africa team for obvious reasons. The second mantra they have is bank the past and be cautious on the future. And that has served us well also in 2025. I think with those 2 mentalities, we will see further opportunity in Africa. The only thing that we need to balance is let's not be too greedy because in the end, more consumers, more occasions is a long-term path to success. So we do need to make sure that also more volume growth in Africa, when it's possible, let's just make sure that we drive a balance between volume and value growth.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#53

Very clear. Just moving on to the balance sheet. It feels like post the Strategy Day last year, there's a sharper focus on return on invested capital in the company. How are you holding the markets to account on this? Is this now incorporated into remuneration metrics? How is it transcending across the organization?

Harold Broek

Executives
#54

Yes. So exactly like that. We have understood that return on invested capital is a very important metric. And it may sound strange to many of the investor base or the analyst base why this was not there before. But again, zooming out over a time frame, in the world that was 5 years ago, we had low interest rates. Growth was there -- was the key driver of it. And therefore, a capital base that was affordable and growth becoming a little bit more easier made it less necessary to put return on invested capital so much to the forefront. When I joined 5 years ago, I also was quite explicit. I said, let's do cost productivity first and capital productivity later. Cost productivity, we have. We now move to capital. So it is now included in long-term incentives. We are deploying this now specifically to the top 150 leaders in the company. It is part of our dashboarding and our ongoing moving annual total measurement. We are making this operational through working capital management, CapEx management, asset management so that we are making sure that it's not a generic concept, but we break it down in manageable pieces, just like we've done with our cost bucketing and our cost performance. So this engine is starting to work.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#55

Got it. You've also given us a cash conversion target of at least 90%. Against that, where are you in the CapEx cycle now? And where are the opportunities on working capital where it feels like you're still quite inferior to your peers?

Harold Broek

Executives
#56

Yes. So on the first one, we are really quite intentional in bringing our capital expenditures levels down. And again, for the audience, we really have a depreciation at about 6% of revenue and a capital base of about 8% of revenue. So that also has an impact on our financial P&L management every year. There is a reason why we're operating at 8%. We were starting to build big breweries in Brazil, for example, and in Vietnam expansion. And we had to build capacity in Europe before we start closing breweries. And at the same time, we had to invest in returnable bottles, and we had to invest in digital and in sustainability. So that really brought that peak investment in. We now have capacity in most of the markets really sorted out. Mexico is still in construction, will take our time to get there, not to run ahead of the market. And the only other one is India, where hopefully, there's a lot of growth and then we need to deploy capital. Across the rest of the base, it can be moderated. Our digital investment, we talked about it also in the Capital Markets Day is now at peak and is now starting to stabilize and slowly come down. So that gives us reason to believe that capital will start to move towards the 7%, not the 8% that we're at. On working capital, we have done detailed benchmarking and analysis. And to your point, we do see very significant opportunities still in working capital management, payables, inventories. It is important, however, to note that there is no common definition. So you need to really do the homework, what is in and what is out in order to make comparables. But we believe that there is at least EUR 0.5 billion to still go after.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#57

Very clear. I guess wrapping up the conversation, you've been meeting lots of investors in the last few weeks, Harold. What do you think the market today underappreciates about Heineken's equity story?

Harold Broek

Executives
#58

So I think two things on top of mind. The first growth is imperative for any company, and that is also true for the category as a whole and for Heineken in particular, because we'd like to be known as a growth company, and that is not what the market has seen in 2025. So the importance of growth is very much top of mind for us as well, but it needs to be of two parts. The first one is how do we grow the category. The second one is how do we win in a growing category. And I think what I'm at least trying to convey, I'm not saying it's underappreciated, but what I'm trying to convey is we believe that across the world, there is potential in beer. And it's down to us to first start bringing the category back in the hearts and minds of consumers through affordable pricing, through innovation, through segment growth like the 0.0 or other beers. So that's the first thing that I want to convey. The second thing is that we are not sitting still. And you started the dialogue with the CEO transition, but Heineken is in motion. And perhaps what people not fully appreciate just yet is how fast is the pace of change of growth also in Heineken, not because we have got clarity of what needs to be done, but also because the people, the cultural change, the appetite to change is absolutely there. Those two combined, we believe, makes this an investment proposition worth considering.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analysts
#59

Very good. Harold, thank you so much for your time and the discussion. Cheers.

Harold Broek

Executives
#60

Cheers. Thank you.

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